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FARmd90
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 27, 2020 10:36 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
Interesting to see a JetBlue aircraft sitting at the A2 concourse at EWR. Anyone know what’s up with this?


If it was tail 606 sitting at the UAX banjo gates (assuming that’s A2) it was there for maintenance. It was suppose to be my plane to MCO today but it was swapped out. Looked like they were working on the left hand engine.
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Jul 27, 2020 11:45 pm

I have to wonder if JFK and LGA might see the A220-300 sooner than later, especially on routes out of AA New York that may alternate between mainline and Eagle. DFW could be intriguing, as that could qualify as part of the Northeast codeshare with AA...where B6 could take over some frequencies and fly either the BCS3 or A21N from LGA there...more so as a shot at DL with flying the newest equipment there to take business away from DL in the NYC market. (Currently, New York to Texas on DL from LGA is primarily on the BCS1.) This would allow AA to better protect its home base of DFW and also its MIA and ORD hubs (could AA perhaps help B6 get another gate at ORD?), with AA realizing that B6 could deliver better short-haul economics...AA would be codesharing on some of these routes.
 
Wingtips56
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 28, 2020 12:00 am

When will B6 have a big enough fleet of A220s on property to mount a significant schedule with them?
Worked for WestAir, Apollo Airways, Desert Pacific, Western, AirCal and American Airlines (Retired). Flight Memory: 181 airports, 92 airlines, 78 a/c types, 403 routes, 58 countries (by air), 6 continents. 1,119,414 passenger miles.

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speedbird2263
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 28, 2020 12:39 am

Wingtips56 wrote:
When will B6 have a big enough fleet of A220s on property to mount a significant schedule with them?


The delivery schedule so far shows 1 at the end of 2020 with ~8 in 2021.
Straight'n Up 'N Fly Right Son
 
CaptCoolHand
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 28, 2020 12:40 am

Wingtips56 wrote:
When will B6 have a big enough fleet of A220s on property to mount a significant schedule with them?


Probably not for 24-36 months.
 
maverick4002
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 28, 2020 12:53 am

aemoreira1981 wrote:
I have to wonder if JFK and LGA might see the A220-300 sooner than later, especially on routes out of AA New York that may alternate between mainline and Eagle. DFW could be intriguing, as that could qualify as part of the Northeast codeshare with AA...where B6 could take over some frequencies and fly either the BCS3 or A21N from LGA there...more so as a shot at DL with flying the newest equipment there to take business away from DL in the NYC market. (Currently, New York to Texas on DL from LGA is primarily on the BCS1.) This would allow AA to better protect its home base of DFW and also its MIA and ORD hubs (could AA perhaps help B6 get another gate at ORD?), with AA realizing that B6 could deliver better short-haul economics...AA would be codesharing on some of these routes.


I flew on a brand new DL BCS 1? in late Feb LGA - DAL. It was delivered a few days before and man, that was a nice ride! really cool plane with a big ass window in the bathroom
 
HNLSLCPDX
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 28, 2020 3:10 am

I think JetBlue needs to make an aggressive expansion into SLC. They should seriously consider adding SAN, AUS, TPA, LAS, ATL, SJD, PVR, and SFO. They already serve JFK, BOS, LAX (beginning October), MCO, and FLL. SLC could offer some connecting options and with the new terminal and growing economy of Salt Lake and the surrounding area there is potential to grow and build and capture a larger frequent flyer base.

I think JetBlue could manage DL’s push back and could make it work and potentially have SLC as a focus city. Definitely would help their presence out west.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 28, 2020 11:57 am

HNLSLCPDX wrote:
I think JetBlue needs to make an aggressive expansion into SLC. They should seriously consider adding SAN, AUS, TPA, LAS, ATL, SJD, PVR, and SFO. They already serve JFK, BOS, LAX (beginning October), MCO, and FLL. SLC could offer some connecting options and with the new terminal and growing economy of Salt Lake and the surrounding area there is potential to grow and build and capture a larger frequent flyer base.

I think JetBlue could manage DL’s push back and could make it work and potentially have SLC as a focus city. Definitely would help their presence out west.


There is absolutely no market for B6 to try ATL-SLC, DL is flying that 11x daily today with B757s+B767s & it is a hub-hub route for them.
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
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BA744PHX
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 28, 2020 1:26 pm

HNLSLCPDX wrote:
I think JetBlue needs to make an aggressive expansion into SLC. They should seriously consider adding SAN, AUS, TPA, LAS, ATL, SJD, PVR, and SFO. They already serve JFK, BOS, LAX (beginning October), MCO, and FLL. SLC could offer some connecting options and with the new terminal and growing economy of Salt Lake and the surrounding area there is potential to grow and build and capture a larger frequent flyer base.

I think JetBlue could manage DL’s push back and could make it work and potentially have SLC as a focus city. Definitely would help their presence out west.

Expansion for what reason? SLC is not a large O&D Market, not much to share with DL dominating. If B6 were to expand out West, they would have a better chance at LAS with a massive O&D.
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 28, 2020 2:55 pm

Per the earnings call the plan is only to build EWR up to 60 flights a day.
 
Dieuwer
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 28, 2020 3:02 pm

JetBlue needs to consider dumping Barclays and get a real credit card issuer on board. Barclays' customer service is absolutely horrible. I was so furious, I closed my Plus card.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 28, 2020 3:30 pm

Discuss the topic, not other users.

Lightsaber
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tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 28, 2020 5:11 pm

Notes from OAG thread and Q2 earnings
- All the JFK increased discussed earlier here showed up on the OAG thread. It's about 9 or 10 additional flights depending on time of year once we are recovered. I wonder if they are getting an additional gate at ORD with the recent ORD adds.
- Cash burn is still projected to be $7 to 9 million/day in Q3. Not great.
- Didn't feel like an airline really concerned about cash situation. They were more concerned with bringing down fixed costs and increasing revenue coming out of this.
- Evaded question about how much smaller they will be going forward. Said they will be operating about 2/3 schedule in Q4 and want to remain flexible to changes in demand
- A lot of optimism with the AA partnership. talked about easier entrance into new markets. Talked about blanket codesharing and earn/burn for ff on other airlines flights
- Talked a lot about combined network in NYC/BOS and other initiatives making trueblue program more valuable (again, this deal is more about increased network relevance than connectivity)
- Overall, seems like they are very focused on improving their position in northeast coming out of this.
- Still aiming for 140 flights /day in FLL with improved connectivity. Really interesting they specifically pointed out growing FLL as an important priority.
- Thanked LAWA repeatedly for allowing them to expand in LAX.

aemoreira1981 wrote:
I have to wonder if JFK and LGA might see the A220-300 sooner than later, especially on routes out of AA New York that may alternate between mainline and Eagle. DFW could be intriguing, as that could qualify as part of the Northeast codeshare with AA...where B6 could take over some frequencies and fly either the BCS3 or A21N from LGA there...more so as a shot at DL with flying the newest equipment there to take business away from DL in the NYC market. (Currently, New York to Texas on DL from LGA is primarily on the BCS1.) This would allow AA to better protect its home base of DFW and also its MIA and ORD hubs (could AA perhaps help B6 get another gate at ORD?), with AA realizing that B6 could deliver better short-haul economics...AA would be codesharing on some of these routes.

They will have to base some A220s in JFK/LGA if they want to bump up frequencies on some of these short haul routes and add new markets. A320 with 162 seat just don't have the same economics and too many seats.

Wingtips56 wrote:
When will B6 have a big enough fleet of A220s on property to mount a significant schedule with them?

No changes to their delivery schedule. They should have 16 by end of 2022. I'd think that's a good quantity.

BA744PHX wrote:
HNLSLCPDX wrote:
I think JetBlue needs to make an aggressive expansion into SLC. They should seriously consider adding SAN, AUS, TPA, LAS, ATL, SJD, PVR, and SFO. They already serve JFK, BOS, LAX (beginning October), MCO, and FLL. SLC could offer some connecting options and with the new terminal and growing economy of Salt Lake and the surrounding area there is potential to grow and build and capture a larger frequent flyer base.

I think JetBlue could manage DL’s push back and could make it work and potentially have SLC as a focus city. Definitely would help their presence out west.

Expansion for what reason? SLC is not a large O&D Market, not much to share with DL dominating. If B6 were to expand out West, they would have a better chance at LAS with a massive O&D.

read some rumour that they were looking at making LAS a focus city before COVID started. I think that's also a terrible idea. Just too much ULCC competition and they are too weak in west coast to make some of these large markets out of LAS work. I would like to see them add a couple of more flights to LAX and SFO. That could work.

There is a lot of stuff they can build up right now that will take all their resources. And when northeast and LAX is finished, there is still FLL and MCO. If I were them, I'd just keep MCO about the same size as pre-COID, and find another place without overwhelming big 4 presence to build. For example, RDU would be a good place to build up if DL takes it time add flights back. I could see them building a 35 to 40 flight station there if they are looking to gain a piece of a new growing market like that.

Nicknuzzii wrote:
Per the earnings call the plan is only to build EWR up to 60 flights a day.

They said 60 flight/day post recovery. There was no clarification of when they believe that is. My guess is that they will reach that size in EWR by second half of next year. And once they move into T-1, it will get a lot large. I'm still thinking a 100 flight station in 3 or 4 years. Especially with the AA partnership.

Dieuwer wrote:
JetBlue needs to consider dumping Barclays and get a real credit card issuer on board. Barclays' customer service is absolutely horrible. I was so furious, I closed my Plus card.

You can try Chase sapphire reserve. Best travel card out there. You can move miles to different airlines including JetBlue and United for redemption.
 
phllax
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 29, 2020 3:29 am

If were a betting man, and based on past actions out of JFK to the Caribbean such as GND and CUR, I would bet besides LIR and the normal Mexican resort destinations of PVR and SJD they would go to ACA, MZT and IXT. All of these were previously served from LA by multiple carriers, with AS Being the only one still serving the later two. Nobody hits ACA from LA anymore.
 
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KLMatSJC
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 29, 2020 9:24 am

phllax wrote:
If were a betting man, and based on past actions out of JFK to the Caribbean such as GND and CUR, I would bet besides LIR and the normal Mexican resort destinations of PVR and SJD they would go to ACA, MZT and IXT. All of these were previously served from LA by multiple carriers, with AS Being the only one still serving the later two. Nobody hits ACA from LA anymore.

I honestly doubt it. There's a reason none are served anymore.
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tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 29, 2020 11:55 am

JetBlue has quite a few project open. They described northeast partnership with AA, building EWR, building LAX and building FLL to 140 flight station. All these projects will certainly occupy their resources for a while. In fact, they are so occupied that no mention was made of MCO, even though the new south terminal is opening in a couple of years. Given there is some pullbacks from other carriers, I'm looking to see what other focus cities they could try.

Taking a look at the busiest airport in America and trying to find the busiest ones that are not already a JetBlue focus city, not dominated by any single airline and not a overly crowded leisure market.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_t ... ted_States
I got TPA, AUS and RDU. TPA doesn't make a lot of sense for them given their focus on Orlando near by.. Although I'm sure they are looking to add more flights there based on their recent actions. AUS and RDU are both growing cities with growing airport that have both strong legacy and WN presence along with some ULCC presence. BNA would've been another good airport but it has too much WN presence.

Taking a look at how they may attempt to build up either city, it becomes clear very quickly that RDU is a better choice. I will use Q3 2019 PDEW numbers to examine here.

First Austin. The top 10 markets are LA, NYC, SF, Chicago, DC, Denver, Boston, Las Vegas, Atlanta and Dallas. The striking part here is that only 3 of top 10 markets are jetBlue focus cities with Orlando and Miami being the 12th and 13th largest. It would be very hard for them to build up here without getting into bloodbath at SF, Chicago and DC. In fact, AUS needs perimeter exemption to be served from DCA, so JetBlue would have to restart IAD to serve there. Austin's top destinations are quite centrally and west coast focused. Which are not ideal for an east coast focused airline like JetBlue.

Now, taking a look at RDU. The top 10 markets are NYC, Boston, Chicago, DC, Miami, Denver, Atlanta, LA, SF, Orlando. And more importantly, NYC is far and away the largest market out of RDU. All 5 continental focus cities of JetBlue are in the top 10 list. They can also use DCA slots for RDU flights. There are also other leisure markets like LAS (13th largest), TPA (14th largest) and markets with strong JetBlue presence like BDL(27th), BUF(34th) that they can try. With Delta bringing back its focus cities very slowly, there is room here for JetBlue to expand. They've currently scheduled in for 4x JFK, 6x BOS and 2x FLL. Going forward (with AA partnership helping them out in NYC/BOS market), they can try 4x JFK, 7x BOS, 5x LGA, 3x EWR, 4x DCA, 2x FLL, 1x LAX, 2x MCO, 1x LAS, 1x SJU, 1x TPA, 1x PBI, 1x BDL, sub daily to BUF and Latin leisure destination. That gets them to around 35 flights a day and then they can think about adding tougher markets like ORD, DEN and SFO.

going through the list of busiest airport, I don't see any other one below RDU with similar connection to NYC/Boston and also similar growing profile. I think if Delta keeps RDU below 50 flights a day over the next few years, it's a station that JetBlue should look to turn into a focus city. Even if they don't go down that path, they could still get to a 20 to 25 flight station just by adding flights to NYC/Boston and launching LAX/MCO/SJU/TPA-RDU.

I also looked at Nashville, where the top 10 markets are NYC, LA, Boston, Chicago, DC, Dallas, Denver, Miami, Philly and SF. This would've been another market that made sense for them if Southwest didn't get so large there.
 
flyby519
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 29, 2020 12:35 pm

What would an RDU focus city bring to the network besides incremental North-South traffic along the east coast?
 
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STT757
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 29, 2020 12:52 pm

tphuang wrote:
JetBlue has quite a few project open. They described northeast partnership with AA, building EWR, building LAX and building FLL to 140 flight station. All these projects will certainly occupy their resources for a while. In fact, they are so occupied that no mention was made of MCO, even though the new south terminal is opening in a couple of years. Given there is some pullbacks from other carriers, I'm looking to see what other focus cities they could try.

Taking a look at the busiest airport in America and trying to find the busiest ones that are not already a JetBlue focus city, not dominated by any single airline and not a overly crowded leisure market.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_t ... ted_States
I got TPA, AUS and RDU. TPA doesn't make a lot of sense for them given their focus on Orlando near by.. Although I'm sure they are looking to add more flights there based on their recent actions. AUS and RDU are both growing cities with growing airport that have both strong legacy and WN presence along with some ULCC presence. BNA would've been another good airport but it has too much WN presence.

Taking a look at how they may attempt to build up either city, it becomes clear very quickly that RDU is a better choice. I will use Q3 2019 PDEW numbers to examine here.

First Austin. The top 10 markets are LA, NYC, SF, Chicago, DC, Denver, Boston, Las Vegas, Atlanta and Dallas. The striking part here is that only 3 of top 10 markets are jetBlue focus cities with Orlando and Miami being the 12th and 13th largest. It would be very hard for them to build up here without getting into bloodbath at SF, Chicago and DC. In fact, AUS needs perimeter exemption to be served from DCA, so JetBlue would have to restart IAD to serve there. Austin's top destinations are quite centrally and west coast focused. Which are not ideal for an east coast focused airline like JetBlue.

Now, taking a look at RDU. The top 10 markets are NYC, Boston, Chicago, DC, Miami, Denver, Atlanta, LA, SF, Orlando. And more importantly, NYC is far and away the largest market out of RDU. All 5 continental focus cities of JetBlue are in the top 10 list. They can also use DCA slots for RDU flights. There are also other leisure markets like LAS (13th largest), TPA (14th largest) and markets with strong JetBlue presence like BDL(27th), BUF(34th) that they can try. With Delta bringing back its focus cities very slowly, there is room here for JetBlue to expand. They've currently scheduled in for 4x JFK, 6x BOS and 2x FLL. Going forward (with AA partnership helping them out in NYC/BOS market), they can try 4x JFK, 7x BOS, 5x LGA, 3x EWR, 4x DCA, 2x FLL, 1x LAX, 2x MCO, 1x LAS, 1x SJU, 1x TPA, 1x PBI, 1x BDL, sub daily to BUF and Latin leisure destination. That gets them to around 35 flights a day and then they can think about adding tougher markets like ORD, DEN and SFO.

going through the list of busiest airport, I don't see any other one below RDU with similar connection to NYC/Boston and also similar growing profile. I think if Delta keeps RDU below 50 flights a day over the next few years, it's a station that JetBlue should look to turn into a focus city. Even if they don't go down that path, they could still get to a 20 to 25 flight station just by adding flights to NYC/Boston and launching LAX/MCO/SJU/TPA-RDU.

I also looked at Nashville, where the top 10 markets are NYC, LA, Boston, Chicago, DC, Dallas, Denver, Miami, Philly and SF. This would've been another market that made sense for them if Southwest didn't get so large there.


Austin, Nashville and Raleigh all probably have large amount AA frequent flyers. Something B6 could tap into if their partnership with AA grows.
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bomber996
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 29, 2020 2:46 pm

tphuang wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
JetBlue needs to consider dumping Barclays and get a real credit card issuer on board. Barclays' customer service is absolutely horrible. I was so furious, I closed my Plus card.

You can try Chase sapphire reserve. Best travel card out there. You can move miles to different airlines including JetBlue and United for redemption.


It seems JetBlue partners with nearly everyone. Citi, Amex, Chase, and Barclays all have their points transfer. Barclays seems to be the only one without an annual fee, but I could be wrong. I'm on the Chase Sapphire Preferred paired with both Freedom cards and I love it. Point being, there are more options than just Barclays.

Peace :box:
"We've recently upped our standards, so up yours." - Federal Aviation Administration
 
Dieuwer
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 29, 2020 3:00 pm

Does anyone know when the contract with Barclays is up for renegotiation?
 
Brianpr3
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 30, 2020 6:16 am

I saw jbu return to serving meals in mint wonder when snacks will return and drinks service not the baggies
Brian
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:41 pm

flyby519 wrote:
What would an RDU focus city bring to the network besides incremental North-South traffic along the east coast?


A lot of same reason why Delta started focus city there: a lot of population growth, highly educated population, tech sector, a lot of New York transplants and a lot of connection to Northeast/south Florida. Having a large operation there will help their performance in Northeast. It will also give them a bigger presence in mid-atlantic region where they are quite weak.

And even if they don't get a focus city there, they could still build up a medium sized station just by connecting it to all their existing focus cities. There is not that many cities with same level of connection to JetBlue's existing focus cities and have growth potential.

Growing in SFO would be nice, but that's a humongous undertaking on top of LAX. And who knows how many gates are available. My guess is they top out at about 35 to 40 flights a day by 2025.

Growing in DC would be nice if they can get more slots at DCA. But without a presence in IAD, that's constrained also.

They will probably try to grow MCO once they finish building out northeast and FLL, but it will be filled with ULCC competition

STT757 wrote:
Austin, Nashville and Raleigh all probably have large amount AA frequent flyers. Something B6 could tap into if their partnership with AA grows.


Sure, as AA exists JFK-AUS/BNA/RDU, JetBlue will be able to add more flight there. They can capture some of the AA ff that on BOS-AUS/BNA/RDU that have been connecting on AA so far.

They talk about entering new markets with AA partnership.

I keep looking at STL/IND/CMH and see a much easier path from JFK/BOS if they can use AA partnership to grab some of the point of sale on the other end where AA have some ff.
 
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STT757
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:05 pm

tphuang wrote:
flyby519 wrote:
What would an RDU focus city bring to the network besides incremental North-South traffic along the east coast?


A lot of same reason why Delta started focus city there: a lot of population growth, highly educated population, tech sector, a lot of New York transplants and a lot of connection to Northeast/south Florida. Having a large operation there will help their performance in Northeast. It will also give them a bigger presence in mid-atlantic region where they are quite weak.

And even if they don't get a focus city there, they could still build up a medium sized station just by connecting it to all their existing focus cities. There is not that many cities with same level of connection to JetBlue's existing focus cities and have growth potential.

Growing in SFO would be nice, but that's a humongous undertaking on top of LAX. And who knows how many gates are available. My guess is they top out at about 35 to 40 flights a day by 2025.

Growing in DC would be nice if they can get more slots at DCA. But without a presence in IAD, that's constrained also.

They will probably try to grow MCO once they finish building out northeast and FLL, but it will be filled with ULCC competition

STT757 wrote:
Austin, Nashville and Raleigh all probably have large amount AA frequent flyers. Something B6 could tap into if their partnership with AA grows.


Sure, as AA exists JFK-AUS/BNA/RDU, JetBlue will be able to add more flight there. They can capture some of the AA ff that on BOS-AUS/BNA/RDU that have been connecting on AA so far.

They talk about entering new markets with AA partnership.

I keep looking at STL/IND/CMH and see a much easier path from JFK/BOS if they can use AA partnership to grab some of the point of sale on the other end where AA have some ff.


I feel like for B6 to make many Midwest markets work they need to fly them from LGA, not Kennedy. Move AA slots currently used to operate smaller regional jets to B6 with mainline aircraft.
Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
 
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ChrisNH38
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:10 pm

I got an e-mail saying my BOS-SAV flight switched from an E-190 to A320. Is this the first time the route has used the A320?
https://my.flightradar24.com/ChrisNH
 
Iggy500
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:48 pm

ChrisNH38 wrote:
I got an e-mail saying my BOS-SAV flight switched from an E-190 to A320. Is this the first time the route has used the A320?


B6's BOS-SAV route has used the A320 for a while now.
 
CobaltScar
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 30, 2020 3:00 pm

Brianpr3 wrote:
I saw jbu return to serving meals in mint wonder when snacks will return and drinks service not the baggies


How can they with all the covid hysteria? Think how many different little things the FA has to touch. They put lids (that you put your lips to) ON the coffee cops, they pluck stir sticks out for you with their fingers, they have to stick their hand into a narrow ice bucket that sits within inches of aisle passenger's heads with a short handled scooper and much much more.

All after cleaning the entire cabin by reaching into seat back pockets and crossing seatbelts that all the passengers have of course handled. Sure they wear gloves and wash their hands, but this is not a surgery room we are talking about.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Aug 02, 2020 4:43 pm

https://crankyflier.com/2020/07/30/figu ... y-burning/
After looking through the above, JetBlue cash burn did not look as terrible for Q2.

I took a look at their calculation of cash burn in the Q2 earning presentation
http://blueir.investproductions.com/~/m ... tation.pdf
Look at slide 12 in there.

It said $691 mil cash burn from opex, $67 mil from capex and $78 from debt payments. Which works out to be $836 million or $9.2 million a day. It looks like their cash burn also included the fees for the $750 million term loan, which came out to be $33 million. The banks must be really making a killing getting 4 to 5% fees on such transaction. Including this $33 million, their cash burn works out to $9.5 million a day that they reported. That's about comparable to DL/AA's Q2 burn rate when adjusted for size. Worse than AS/WN/UA and better than NK when adjusted for size.

UA also mentioned that they can get to cash neutral when revenue is back to 50% of pre-COVID. Which seemed to be very optimistic and aggressive at the time. So I took a look at what JetBlue would need to do.

If we look at Q2 numbers http://blueir.investproductions.com/inv ... 28-07-2020
Their revenue was down 90% from a year ago and passenger revenue was down 91.6%. That has to be more than all other big 6 airlines due to the huge drop in demand in northeast.

The total operating cash burn for them is total operating expenses remove the special items (PSP + impairment) and depreciation. That works out to be around 929 - 140 = 789. Considering their opex loss was $691 for the quarter, it seems like they actually took in even less booking than their revenue. Their expense close to $800 million a quarter running essentially a 15% schedule. If you look at last slide before questions, they are expecting to spend around $130 to 135 million in principal payments + interest in Q3 and Q4. A little higher than the $108 million they spent in Q2. Let's say they don't take out any major loans after this or have larger principal payments, their Quarterly principal + interest is around $135 million. Getting 20% revenue on 50% capacity vs 10% revenue on 15% allows them to cut cash burn from $9.5 million /day to around $8 million a day. The additional 10% revenue from 2019 quarter is around $210 million or around $2.3 million a day. Since the principal + interest only went up maybe 0.2 million a day. That means going from 15% to 50% capacity added around $0.6 million per day in cost. Not a lot. If they were to go from there to a 85 to 95% pre-COVID schedule, it would probably add at most $1.5 million a day to their cost. If they can reduce their salary and other cost a little more, they would probably need to generate close to $11 million a day in revenue to be cash neutral. That is also about 50% of their pre-COVID daily revenue.

Just look at their Q2 data. If we apply 85% schedule (factoring in low fuel prices), some reduction on personnel. Let's say they spend
fuel 250
salary 400
Landing fee 100
Aircraft rent 20
sales and marketing 10
Maintenance 100
Other cost 120
That's $1000 million or about $11 million a day in cost.

Since they are 80% leisure, they really need revenue from leisure market to return to probably 60 to 65% of pre-COVID levels (if we assume business is stuck at below 25% of pre-COVID level for most of next year) to be cash neutral. That could be possible by Q2 of next year.

I expect to see them to continue to advertise a larger schedule than they intend to operate to get more bookings and then operate a smaller amount they actually intend to operate.
Last edited by tphuang on Sun Aug 02, 2020 5:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
MKIAZ
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Aug 02, 2020 5:02 pm

tphuang wrote:
No changes to their delivery schedule. They should have 16 by end of 2022. I'd think that's a good quantity.


How many are they going to use at SNA alone? I could see them doing 2x BOS, 3-4x JFK, 2x FLL
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Aug 02, 2020 6:45 pm

Actually, I got my numbers wrong a little bit. I did not include the interest payment and principal payment. And upping fuel cost and salary a little bit for a 85% schedule
interest payment 135
fuel 300
salary 425
Landing fee 100
aircraft rent 20
sale + marketing 20
Maintenance 100
Other 120
1220 in total
That's about $13 million a day. Or a little under 60% of pre-COVID revenue per day to be breaking even.

Still think leisure booking + other revenue needs to be around 65% of pre-COVID level for them to be cash neutral. That's a better position to be than an airline that's more depends on business booking being 40% of their revenue normally.

MKIAZ wrote:
tphuang wrote:
No changes to their delivery schedule. They should have 16 by end of 2022. I'd think that's a good quantity.


How many are they going to use at SNA alone? I could see them doing 2x BOS, 3-4x JFK, 2x FLL


I don't think SNA is that important. I'd imagine they start by trying 1x JFK and 1x BOS. Maybe they will do a couple of eat coast turns on top of that.
 
AAY224
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Aug 02, 2020 6:59 pm

tphuang wrote:

It said $691 mil cash burn from opex, $67 mil from capex and $78 from debt payments. Which works out to be $836 million or $9.2 million a day. It looks like their cash burn also included the fees for the $750 million term loan, which came out to be $33 million. The banks must be really making a killing getting 4 to 5% fees on such transaction. Including this $33 million, their cash burn works out to $9.5 million a day that they reported. That's about comparable to DL/AA's Q2 burn rate when adjusted for size. Worse than AS/WN/UA and better than NK when adjusted for size.


Same as the other thread, I think this is a rather misleading article as Q2 cash burn is a pretty poor indicator of what’s to come going forward. June cash burn seems far more reasonable of a metric, and even then this situation is changing so rapidly. What worries me with JetBlue is they failed to decrease their cash burn nearly as quickly as most other airlines, which no doubt has a lot to do with the unfortunate location of most of their flying being in the middle of the pandemic and the quarantines in the northeast.
To say they’re doing better than NK when adjusted for size doesn’t seem accurate. NK’s burn was $1.5M in June. Predicting $3-4M per day Q3. B6 was $8M in June and predicting $7-9M Q3. B6 has a fleet of 267 compared to NK’s 151. B6 2019 ASM was 63.8 billion. NK was 41.7 billion. For an airline that’s much less than twice the size of NK, they are projecting to lose more than twice as much. From what I’ve seen, it seems as though you may have some kind of vendetta against Spirit. Neither airline did well, but it definitely seems like the currently trajectory towards cash neutral favors Spirit.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Aug 02, 2020 9:03 pm

AAY224 wrote:
tphuang wrote:

It said $691 mil cash burn from opex, $67 mil from capex and $78 from debt payments. Which works out to be $836 million or $9.2 million a day. It looks like their cash burn also included the fees for the $750 million term loan, which came out to be $33 million. The banks must be really making a killing getting 4 to 5% fees on such transaction. Including this $33 million, their cash burn works out to $9.5 million a day that they reported. That's about comparable to DL/AA's Q2 burn rate when adjusted for size. Worse than AS/WN/UA and better than NK when adjusted for size.


Same as the other thread, I think this is a rather misleading article as Q2 cash burn is a pretty poor indicator of what’s to come going forward. June cash burn seems far more reasonable of a metric, and even then this situation is changing so rapidly. What worries me with JetBlue is they failed to decrease their cash burn nearly as quickly as most other airlines, which no doubt has a lot to do with the unfortunate location of most of their flying being in the middle of the pandemic and the quarantines in the northeast.

Again, a lot of that actually is due to booking #. For example, we know that AS did better. What we can see in Q2 earnings is that AS passenger revenue was down 85%. B6 passenger revenue was down 92%. Overall revenue was down 82% at AS and 90% at B6. I'd bet the net booking difference was even larger. You add 8% additional revenue,their burn rate in Q2 drops to around $7.5 million a day. And I would bet given NY/NJ/MA quarantine orders, booking for Q3 will continue to be worse for B6 than AS. So that's a large part of it. On the flip side, once we get out of this, there will be more people needing to see their families or take vacations. So the rebound bounce will also be higher. There is no reason leisure booking in northeast will continue to be down more than other regions of the country in Q4 or first half of next year.

And if you look at their cash position and debt load, they can handle burning some additional cash now.

To say they’re doing better than NK when adjusted for size doesn’t seem accurate. NK’s burn was $1.5M in June. Predicting $3-4M per day Q3. B6 was $8M in June and predicting $7-9M Q3. B6 has a fleet of 267 compared to NK’s 151. B6 2019 ASM was 63.8 billion. NK was 41.7 billion. For an airline that’s much less than twice the size of NK, they are projecting to lose more than twice as much. From what I’ve seen, it seems as though you may have some kind of vendetta against Spirit. Neither airline did well, but it definitely seems like the currently trajectory towards cash neutral favors Spirit.


I have nothing against NK. I've been called an AS hater and that has not stopped be from saying how great they are doing with cash burn. NK simply did not do a good job of reducing cash burn. $6 million /day is terrible for an airline of its size. JetBlue revenue is more than twice as much as NK for Q2 of last year. Cost ratio is about the same. That's the best measure you can use to gauge how fast they can get cash burn down. Look at their debt load and cash position. Look at how much they got for PSP (hint, JetBlue got a lot more than twice as much as NK). There is a reason NK is doing 20 to 30% furlough.
 
AAY224
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Aug 02, 2020 9:44 pm

tphuang wrote:
Again, a lot of that actually is due to booking #. For example, we know that AS did better. What we can see in Q2 earnings is that AS passenger revenue was down 85%. B6 passenger revenue was down 92%. Overall revenue was down 82% at AS and 90% at B6. I'd bet the net booking difference was even larger. You add 8% additional revenue,their burn rate in Q2 drops to around $7.5 million a day. And I would bet given NY/NJ/MA quarantine orders, booking for Q3 will continue to be worse for B6 than AS. So that's a large part of it. On the flip side, once we get out of this, there will be more people needing to see their families or take vacations. So the rebound bounce will also be higher. There is no reason leisure booking in northeast will continue to be down more than other regions of the country in Q4 or first half of next year.

And if you look at their cash position and debt load, they can handle burning some additional cash now.


I have nothing against NK. I've been called an AS hater and that has not stopped be from saying how great they are doing with cash burn. NK simply did not do a good job of reducing cash burn. $6 million /day is terrible for an airline of its size. JetBlue revenue is more than twice as much as NK for Q2 of last year. Cost ratio is about the same. That's the best measure you can use to gauge how fast they can get cash burn down. Look at their debt load and cash position. Look at how much they got for PSP (hint, JetBlue got a lot more than twice as much as NK). There is a reason NK is doing 20 to 30% furlough.


JetBlue’s 2Q 2019 revenue was basically exactly twice the size of Spirit’s, and Spirit has grown more than JetBlue since then. Even if you look at the projections for 3Q cash burn, JetBlue’s projection is more than double Spirit’s. There’s absolutely a reason why Spirit is doing 20-30% furloughs, and it’s the same reason Alaska, even with their better earnings, is sending 7,000 warn notices out. It’s because demand is down astronomically with no clear picture of when it will return. JetBlue definitely got a lot more in PSP funds - it’s payroll support and they have nearly 3X the employees since Spirit contracts nearly all their work out so the amount was going to be far greater. Plus side for Spirit is that the discontinuation of it in Q3/4 probably won’t hit them as hard because they got significantly less to begin with.
You’re right that NK has a high debt load as they were in hyper growth mode, which isn’t going to help them. I do think that they can be cash neutral quicker than most, which will help them. They said they broke even for June if not for the $50M delivery deferment payment. Allegiant said they were cash neutral in June. I’d be curious to see what Frontier looked like. I see a bit of a trend.

It’s very clear you know your stuff, and are very knowledgeable about the industry, but it does seem like you try to find things that paint a few certain airlines in a negative light, and put a positive spin on anything B6.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Aug 02, 2020 11:21 pm

AAY224 wrote:
JetBlue’s 2Q 2019 revenue was basically exactly twice the size of Spirit’s, and Spirit has grown more than JetBlue since then. Even if you look at the projections for 3Q cash burn, JetBlue’s projection is more than double Spirit’s.
There’s absolutely a reason why Spirit is doing 20-30% furloughs, and it’s the same reason Alaska, even with their better earnings, is sending 7,000 warn notices out. It’s because demand is down astronomically with no clear picture of when it will return.
JetBlue definitely got a lot more in PSP funds - it’s payroll support and they have nearly 3X the employees since Spirit contracts nearly all their work out so the amount was going to be far greater.

2.1 times revenue vs 2.3 times cash burn. Pretty small difference. And when adjusted for JetBlue getting more cash portion of PSP than NK for size. They are about in the same boat in cash burn for Q3. Both pretty terrible. Still doesn't change the fact that NK's Q2 cash burn was the worst out of all the airlines that reported before JetBlue and even worse than JetBlue's cash burn.

Plus side for Spirit is that the discontinuation of it in Q3/4 probably won’t hit them as hard because they got significantly less to begin with.
You’re right that NK has a high debt load as they were in hyper growth mode, which isn’t going to help them. I do think that they can be cash neutral quicker than most, which will help them. They said they broke even for June if not for the $50M delivery deferment payment. Allegiant said they were cash neutral in June. I’d be curious to see what Frontier looked like. I see a bit of a trend.

It’s very clear you know your stuff, and are very knowledgeable about the industry, but it does seem like you try to find things that paint a few certain airlines in a negative light, and put a positive spin on anything B6.

NK burnt $6 million a day in Q2. It only did well because it took in booking for months ahead while flying minimally. Once the Florida demand stopped growing and they had to fly more, it's been terrible for them.

You are making the mistaking of assuming all ULCCs are alike. They are not. G4 is going to come out of this in much better shape than NK. They have a more flexible model and only flies routes on frequencies that at least breaks even on cash. In months where there is limited demand, it just flies minimally. NK doesn't do that. It tries to have a network and consistent schedule. And the problem it runs into is that it's utterly dependent on a east coast to Florida and west coast to LAS model. While that is likely to recover before other routes, F9 is doing almost exactly the same thing (albeit on a smaller scale+ DEN). Have 2 ULCCs running same model is really not good for either.

JetBlue's recovery is purely dependent on leisure recovery out of Northeast. That means VFR to sunbelt states and islands. That means leisure to Florida and islands. It also depends a lot on transcon recovery.
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Aug 02, 2020 11:27 pm

All the new routes that were added frequencies were cut again.
 
usflyer msp
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Aug 02, 2020 11:38 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
All the new routes that were added frequencies were cut again.


They cut JFK - DTW/MSP to 2x weekly for the rest of August. Why bother?
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Aug 03, 2020 1:55 am

usflyer msp wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
All the new routes that were added frequencies were cut again.


They cut JFK - DTW/MSP to 2x weekly for the rest of August. Why bother?

They have minimum service requirements as per CARES act. They are also running only 2x weekly on BOS-MSP. Aside from that, it's good to have some minimum presence on these routes if they intend to keep them around.

fyi, it's not just the new routes that got trimmed. Most of their existing routes got really reduced too. For example, PHL-FLL is reduced to 1x weekly in Aug and 3x weekly in Sep. All the new PHL routes are at least 2x weekly in August.

Looks like they had their final reduction for August. The demand is really just not there. If Sep doesn't pick up, we will see more cuts later this month.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Aug 03, 2020 2:49 pm

CF on this past weekend's schedule cuts
https://crankyflier.com/2020/08/03/amer ... -everyone/

Pretty big one for JetBlue as people have noticed. A lot of stuff became sub daily with off peak cuts all around. Demand out of Northeast is really heading in the wrong direction. I do wonder if JetBlue will take the recent AS approach and add even more routes. It seems to have become a normal practice now for airlines to advertise a much larger schedule and make close-in adjustments as they see the demand levels. At this point, they are tied to northeast demand coming back. They may miss out on demand recovery to certain region if they don't offer a schedule there. I'm really surprised they did not push back the start of most PHL routes.
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Aug 03, 2020 8:18 pm

So much for all those new routes... Or any routes for that matter. Sad but predictable.

B6 has really been behind the 8 Ball with all of this.

Within a week of announcing these new routes, demand was falling. They are chasing a rainbow...and it isnt working well for them outside of the DR.
 
BlueBaller
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Aug 03, 2020 8:52 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
So much for all those new routes... Or any routes for that matter. Sad but predictable.

B6 has really been behind the 8 Ball with all of this.

Within a week of announcing these new routes, demand was falling. They are chasing a rainbow...and it isnt working well for them outside of the DR.


Wow talk about critics coming out like mosquitoes in the swamp. I don't really know how much more proactive you expect the airline to be. This is the most dynamic 6 month environment in the 100 year history of our industry. Since announcing London, a little over a year ago, they tried more power moves than they did in all of its 20. They promised the pilots paychecks until Spring and are doing everything they (presumably) can to keep everyone here who wants to. They're closing and opening an entire domicile during a pandemic and the System and Supplemental Bid for 2021 just opened today. I don't want to be a route planner right now, as I imagine it's a 24 hour a day job, but don't assume they are done getting creative. However, if JetBlue goes down nobody can say they didn't go down swinging.
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Aug 04, 2020 2:16 am

BlueBaller wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:
So much for all those new routes... Or any routes for that matter. Sad but predictable.

B6 has really been behind the 8 Ball with all of this.

Within a week of announcing these new routes, demand was falling. They are chasing a rainbow...and it isnt working well for them outside of the DR.


Wow talk about critics coming out like mosquitoes in the swamp. I don't really know how much more proactive you expect the airline to be. This is the most dynamic 6 month environment in the 100 year history of our industry. Since announcing London, a little over a year ago, they tried more power moves than they did in all of its 20. They promised the pilots paychecks until Spring and are doing everything they (presumably) can to keep everyone here who wants to. They're closing and opening an entire domicile during a pandemic and the System and Supplemental Bid for 2021 just opened today. I don't want to be a route planner right now, as I imagine it's a 24 hour a day job, but don't assume they are done getting creative. However, if JetBlue goes down nobody can say they didn't go down swinging.



That’s the thing. Maybe they should be swinging a little less and hunkering down a bit more.

Look, I love the bold moves. But I had my doubts when they were announced. This may not be the time for bold moves. The truth is, they could easily furlough 20 percent of pilots, close LGB, ground the 190s and come out at the same spot next summer with a lot more cash in the bank.

Long term, I fear we will look back at some of these bullish moves that B6 AA NK etc are making as stupid moves.
 
BlueBaller
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Aug 04, 2020 4:16 am

jfklganyc wrote:
BlueBaller wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:
So much for all those new routes... Or any routes for that matter. Sad but predictable.

B6 has really been behind the 8 Ball with all of this.

Within a week of announcing these new routes, demand was falling. They are chasing a rainbow...and it isnt working well for them outside of the DR.


Wow talk about critics coming out like mosquitoes in the swamp. I don't really know how much more proactive you expect the airline to be. This is the most dynamic 6 month environment in the 100 year history of our industry. Since announcing London, a little over a year ago, they tried more power moves than they did in all of its 20. They promised the pilots paychecks until Spring and are doing everything they (presumably) can to keep everyone here who wants to. They're closing and opening an entire domicile during a pandemic and the System and Supplemental Bid for 2021 just opened today. I don't want to be a route planner right now, as I imagine it's a 24 hour a day job, but don't assume they are done getting creative. However, if JetBlue goes down nobody can say they didn't go down swinging.



That’s the thing. Maybe they should be swinging a little less and hunkering down a bit more.

Look, I love the bold moves. But I had my doubts when they were announced. This may not be the time for bold moves. The truth is, they could easily furlough 20 percent of pilots, close LGB, ground the 190s and come out at the same spot next summer with a lot more cash in the bank.

Long term, I fear we will look back at some of these bullish moves that B6 AA NK etc are making as stupid moves.


I think it's easier said than done to just ride this thing out like it's a some sort of economically-derived fallout with a predictable storm track. There's really no blueprint for what we're in. I wasn't exactly convinced they would all work. A lot of the point to point stuff were head scratchers. If all but PHLSJU, the JFK and EWR Transcons and at least half the NE-Florida stuff sticks on the dartboard, like upping PVD, I'd say it was an experiment done right. LAX is obviously a cut and paste but I assume stuff like RNO and LAS will get dropped sooner than later.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Aug 04, 2020 1:27 pm

What's going to get that cash burn down is a recovery in northeast leisure demand. They've committed to this deal with AA which basically forces them to burn more cash in the near term to pick up more slots/gates and more customers for the future. They are basically expanding more cash right now when everyone is strapped for cash in order to help their future.

Some of these new additions would require implementation of reciprocal ff benefits with AA and AA dropping out from a portion of its NYC route to work. I'd like to see them concentrate their adds out of NYC/BOS and just give up on stuff like PHL/CLE/PIT/ORD-Florida if demand there remains garbage going into Q4.

Some of the recent cash related moves they are doing to raise enough cash to get through this. I still don't see the downside of them just taking the CARES loan.

https://www.hartfordbusiness.com/articl ... th-jetblue
service deal for V2500 engines. This was announced in the Q2 earnings call. I'd imagine this provides some cost savings or at least cost certainty.

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-release ... 05164.html
sale and lease back for A321NEO deliveries this year. Another move to cut immediate capex and bring some cash relief on the already delivered aircraft.

https://www.fitchratings.com/research/c ... 03-08-2020
And they are looking to raise another $808 million secured debt (on A321 deliveries from 2015 to 2020). The yield on A and BBB rated corporate debt is pretty low right now. We will find out what kind of interest rates these get priced at.
 
Brianpr3
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Aug 06, 2020 6:56 pm

Now that Florida has ended it's Quarrentine order against the northeast wonder how will it help traffic etc?
Brian
 
Miamiairport
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Aug 06, 2020 7:24 pm

Brianpr3 wrote:
Now that Florida has ended it's Quarrentine order against the northeast wonder how will it help traffic etc?


Some but I don't see it having any huge benefit. Except for Hawaii few states were actively enforcing quarantines and most people flying seem to be ignoring the self quarantines. There is a provision on the ballot in Miami Dade to force COVID testing of all arriving paxs at MIA, which would be a PITA to carry out. If MIA does it I'd be anything less than surprised if FLL follows. Would it inhibit people coming to Miami Dade/Broward ?????
 
HNLSLCPDX
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Aug 06, 2020 7:41 pm

Ok then, if B6 were to have a Midwest focus city, what city would it be? MCI, STL, IND, are the only ones you could look at but they don’t bring anything to the table. I don’t see any city in that region that makes sense. The only city I see that B6 could maybe make a focus city would be Austin, and that’s not even Midwest. SLC might work, especially with its strong economy and new terminal, decently size loyalty flyers (and good luck fighting DL on their turf) but other than that, I cannot think of any place that would work.
 
bpat777
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Aug 06, 2020 8:41 pm

HNLSLCPDX wrote:
Ok then, if B6 were to have a Midwest focus city, what city would it be? MCI, STL, IND, are the only ones you could look at but they don’t bring anything to the table. I don’t see any city in that region that makes sense. The only city I see that B6 could maybe make a focus city would be Austin, and that’s not even Midwest. SLC might work, especially with its strong economy and new terminal, decently size loyalty flyers (and good luck fighting DL on their turf) but other than that, I cannot think of any place that would work.


WN already has a pretty strong hold on AUS.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Aug 07, 2020 1:22 am

I think the justification for B6 opening a midwest focus city is pretty low at this point. They've got a lot of work to do at NYC, Boston, FLL and LAX in the next few years. Back in Jan/Feb, they were constrained and looking for places to expand. Now, they are not constrained in their major focus cities and have too many opportunities that they want to expand on.

At this point, I'd happy seeing them just enter markets like MCI, STL and IND. An entry service of 2x JFK + 2 BOS to both STL and IND shouldn't be too hard once the AA partnership gets approved and implemented. And down the road, they can add service to LGA/EWR/FLL/MCO/LAX depending on how well the other routes are doing. Depending on how much competition they might face. CLE is another place they could add more service to other focus cities. For places like STL and MCI that are really dominated by WN, there is no need for B6 to go in with more than NYC/BOS/FLL.

For a place like IND, they could start with 2x BOS + 2x JFK. And then, add LGA if they have the slots and AA is pulling back. Once they gain some presence in the market, they could add some Florida stuff like FLL, MCO and TPA (all top 15 markets out of IND). And depending on how those are doing, they could add DCA, LAX, LAS and SJU. That would cover a lot of the large markets already. But anything they buildup in midwest would probably be due to opportunities presenting themselves rather than a concerted effort to create a focus city.
 
BNAMealer
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Aug 07, 2020 2:05 am

tphuang wrote:
I think the justification for B6 opening a midwest focus city is pretty low at this point. They've got a lot of work to do at NYC, Boston, FLL and LAX in the next few years. Back in Jan/Feb, they were constrained and looking for places to expand. Now, they are not constrained in their major focus cities and have too many opportunities that they want to expand on.


I agree about B6 having more work to do in places such as BOS/NYC. However, I do agree someday they are going to need a large mid-continent base/hub if they want to take the next step. Right now, they aren’t convenient to fly domestically unless you live in the Northeast or Florida. It would be nice to be able to fly them to and from places in the Midwest/west/south.

It’s too bad BNA already has a large WN presence, it would be the perfect place for a large B6 base if it wasn’t for that.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Aug 07, 2020 4:32 pm

I think BNA would've been a great place for them to build up if WN had like a 60 flight station and with little desire to grow further than that. But it looks like they have pretty big plans there and it's hard to see how JetBlue could possibly compete with them in that market. That's a real shame, because it is the type of growing market that everyone should be interested. I could see a 15 to 20 flight station at BNA. Anything beyond that would be a real bloodbath for them.

I'm really curious to see how much can they grow through this AA partnership in JFK/LGA. That will dictate when they can grow BOS to 200 flights and FLL to 140 flights. That will dictate how much they grow out of EWR. Similar to AA's partnership with AS at LAX, B6 growth at LGA/JFK would most likely mean AA reductions out of those markets. For yesterday, we have this many flights from AA in each of the following airport
LAX 51 flights, LGA 29 flights, JFK 17 flights.
I think LAX had around 220 flights pre-COVID? LGA + JFK had around 240 flights pre-COVID? So AA's reduction at NYC appears to be deeper than at LA

At LAX, we are already seeing AS seemingly take over several marginal markets from AA. It'd be curious to see how many LGA slots AA leases/transfers to Jetblue. The original premise was that JetBlue will take over a lot of the within perimeter non-hub markets out of JFK and add some Florida flying out of LGA. JetBlue probably would only need 10 more LGA slots to serve both BOS & Florida (9x BOS, 5x FLL, 4x MCO, 3x PBI, 3x TPA, 2x RSW). But if AA is looking to stop bleeding on a lot of its LGA stuff, it might look to transfer even more slots than that. For example, a 120 to 130 flight station for AA at LGA may lead them to lease 30 to 40 slots to JetBlue.

That level of additional flying out of LGA on top of what they have already committed to out of JFK and EWR would probably require all of their recovery + growth for next 3 year.
 
TonyClifton
Posts: 256
Joined: Thu May 14, 2020 3:19 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Aug 07, 2020 4:36 pm

tphuang wrote:
I think BNA would've been a great place for them to build up if WN had like a 60 flight station and with little desire to grow further than that. But it looks like they have pretty big plans there and it's hard to see how JetBlue could possibly compete with them in that market. That's a real shame, because it is the type of growing market that everyone should be interested. I could see a 15 to 20 flight station at BNA. Anything beyond that would be a real bloodbath for them.

I'm really curious to see how much can they grow through this AA partnership in JFK/LGA. That will dictate when they can grow BOS to 200 flights and FLL to 140 flights. That will dictate how much they grow out of EWR. Similar to AA's partnership with AS at LAX, B6 growth at LGA/JFK would most likely mean AA reductions out of those markets. For yesterday, we have this many flights from AA in each of the following airport
LAX 51 flights, LGA 29 flights, JFK 17 flights.
I think LAX had around 220 flights pre-COVID? LGA + JFK had around 240 flights pre-COVID? So AA's reduction at NYC appears to be deeper than at LA

At LAX, we are already seeing AS seemingly take over several marginal markets from AA. It'd be curious to see how many LGA slots AA leases/transfers to Jetblue. The original premise was that JetBlue will take over a lot of the within perimeter non-hub markets out of JFK and add some Florida flying out of LGA. JetBlue probably would only need 10 more LGA slots to serve both BOS & Florida (9x BOS, 5x FLL, 4x MCO, 3x PBI, 3x TPA, 2x RSW). But if AA is looking to stop bleeding on a lot of its LGA stuff, it might look to transfer even more slots than that. For example, a 120 to 130 flight station for AA at LGA may lead them to lease 30 to 40 slots to JetBlue.

That level of additional flying out of LGA on top of what they have already committed to out of JFK and EWR would probably require all of their recovery + growth for next 3 year.

Do you think JB will look to leave the MAT to better facilitate connections? I’ve done the bus before and it isn’t a reliable or timely experience.

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