JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

dca1 · Sat Sep 12, 2020 10:37 pm

FLL Mint catering comes from MIA. I presume the same will be said for PBI.

speedbird2263 · Sat Sep 12, 2020 11:04 pm

dca1 wrote:
FLL Mint catering comes from MIA. I presume the same will be said for PBI.

Interesting, do you know who the business partner is they went with for catering down there?

Jo8338 · Sat Sep 12, 2020 11:18 pm

Why would catering come from MIA if b6 doesn’t serve MIA.

StinkyPinky · Sat Sep 12, 2020 11:54 pm

Jo8338 wrote:
Why would catering come from MIA if b6 doesn’t serve MIA.

That's where the business partner's flight kitchen/warehouse is located.

Iggy500 · Sun Sep 13, 2020 12:26 am

Quick question: I was looking at B6's booking website, and it looks like on the LAX-LIR route, there seems to be no information on the return flight back to LAX. Is this because B6 is still waiting on government approval, or is there just no return flight at all?

This is only showing up on the B6 website as of now.

LAX-LIR 7:30-2:50

catiii · Sun Sep 13, 2020 1:06 am

Nicknuzzii wrote:
lga31vfr wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:

Gotcha. Where do you get your loads? I’m quite interested in finding out for other routes too.

Its actually not that difficult to figure out. While not the most accurate, seat mappers still give you a very good idea. Take a look at EWR-CHS for Tuesday. Empty. Also, still selling lots of blue basic seats.

Oh yes I do that too but they aren’t reliable until around an hour before departure.

Seat maps?!? :rotfl:

If you’re judging wether a flights is cash positive based on seat maps, I would LOVE to compete against you.

Seat maps...adorable.

MAH4546 · Sun Sep 13, 2020 1:06 am

Jo8338 wrote:
It’s the only Mint flight out of PBI. It’s hard to believe they can make the MINT offerings in such small quantities

Not really. It’s a premium leisure market. JetBlue knows the zip codes if their customers and likely saw that a lot of FLLLAX Mint cabin traffic was originating in Palm Beach County zip codes.

catiii · Sun Sep 13, 2020 2:34 am

Jo8338 wrote:
It’s the only Mint flight out of PBI. It’s hard to believe they can make the MINT offerings in such small quantities

What’s so hard to believe? Look at the other markets with one a day Mint “in such small quantities.” For that matter, look across the US industry for, say, TATL service that is once daily with a premium cabin. There is absolutely nothing unique or “hard to believe” about it.

tu154 · Sun Sep 13, 2020 4:42 am

catiii wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
lga31vfr wrote:

Its actually not that difficult to figure out. While not the most accurate, seat mappers still give you a very good idea. Take a look at EWR-CHS for Tuesday. Empty. Also, still selling lots of blue basic seats.

Oh yes I do that too but they aren’t reliable until around an hour before departure.

Seat maps?!?

If you’re judging wether a flights is cash positive based on seat maps, I would LOVE to compete against you.

Seat maps...adorable.

He’s actually notorious for his attempts to slam jetBlue any chance he gets. Kinda like JUMBO used to, or still does.....I don’t know, I tuned him out. Must be a Delta fanboy or something. It’s really very predictable.

lga31vfr · Sun Sep 13, 2020 1:37 pm

I actually think there will be another wave of JetBlue expansion on the horizon. I think they have a very good chance of taking over unused gates at LGA, BOS, LAX, SEA, JFK, EWR....With the majors cutting back more flights than the LCC's, and having to relinquish gates, I see JetBlue swooping in and taking them all over. Its what they do. I am sure some on here will agree 100%. I can see JetBlue being second in command as far as domestic travel goes, right behind Southwest. I think JetBlue will have total dominance at LAX in the very near future as well as RDU.

CRJ5000 · Sun Sep 13, 2020 1:46 pm

lga31vfr wrote:
I actually think there will be another wave of JetBlue expansion on the horizon. I think they have a very good chance of taking over unused gates at LGA, BOS, LAX, SEA, JFK, EWR....With the majors cutting back more flights than the LCC's, and having to relinquish gates, I see JetBlue swooping in and taking them all over. Its what they do. I am sure some on here will agree 100%. I can see JetBlue being second in command as far as domestic travel goes, right behind Southwest. I think JetBlue will have total dominance at LAX in the very near future as well as RDU.

I think its pretty clear that B6 will expand more, but 2nd in command behind WN domestically?
They're going to have to do a monumentally impossible amount of expansion in nearly every non-coastal state to even get to 4th place.

TYWoolman · Sun Sep 13, 2020 1:59 pm

lga31vfr wrote:
I actually think there will be another wave of JetBlue expansion on the horizon. I think they have a very good chance of taking over unused gates at LGA, BOS, LAX, SEA, JFK, EWR....With the majors cutting back more flights than the LCC's, and having to relinquish gates, I see JetBlue swooping in and taking them all over. Its what they do. I am sure some on here will agree 100%. I can see JetBlue being second in command as far as domestic travel goes, right behind Southwest. I think JetBlue will have total dominance at LAX in the very near future as well as RDU.

Perhaps. But all this expansion is in the vacuum of covid, not demand for JetBlue per se. It's a good opportunistic play, but total dominance is premature as that implies demand has returned. Once demand returns, JetBlue will be more exposed on all fronts to increased competition from the legacies with large frequent flyer bases.

Tack · Sun Sep 13, 2020 10:22 pm

lga31vfr wrote:
I actually think there will be another wave of JetBlue expansion on the horizon. I think they have a very good chance of taking over unused gates at LGA, BOS, LAX, SEA, JFK, EWR....With the majors cutting back more flights than the LCC's, and having to relinquish gates, I see JetBlue swooping in and taking them all over. Its what they do. I am sure some on here will agree 100%. I can see JetBlue being second in command as far as domestic travel goes, right behind Southwest. I think JetBlue will have total dominance at LAX in the very near future as well as RDU.

Lol love your enthusiasm if not your imagination. Which gates do you see as unused in SEA? Or are you just fan boying here? There’s nothing wrong with that, mind you. That’s the fun of this site. Total dominance at LAX. What do you believe that would like? Again love your enthusiasm. Cheers!

bpat777 · Sun Sep 13, 2020 11:21 pm

lga31vfr wrote:
I actually think there will be another wave of JetBlue expansion on the horizon. I think they have a very good chance of taking over unused gates at LGA, BOS, LAX, SEA, JFK, EWR....With the majors cutting back more flights than the LCC's, and having to relinquish gates, I see JetBlue swooping in and taking them all over. Its what they do. I am sure some on here will agree 100%. I can see JetBlue being second in command as far as domestic travel goes, right behind Southwest. I think JetBlue will have total dominance at LAX in the very near future as well as RDU.

Go easy with the blue juice.

stl07 · Mon Sep 14, 2020 3:22 am

ElroyJetson wrote:
I think most of these B6 additions will work and I see it primarily as a shot across the bow directed at WN and secondarily DL.

The RIC adds are very interesting to me because WN has neglected that market for years. The nonstops to LAX and LAS overflies MDW, DEN, STL, and BNA. WN should have added those markets years ago, but while they slept, UA started flights to DEN that have been very successful, and Allegiant started flights to BNA.

WN connects a lot of West coast traffic to RIC from ATL. B6 is now effectively undercutting quite a bit of that connecting traffic.

The RDU adds I see directed at DL that was turning RDU into a focus city until retreating due to covid. RDU like AUS is growing very rapidly, and again I think a good move by B6.

WN flew to STL and BNA from Norfolk this summer, so they are finally starting to get some routes in

hiflyeras · Mon Sep 14, 2020 3:51 am

Why is it that I look at all these rosy announcements by B6 with a huge grain of salt? Seems to be more of an exercise in PR, not a sensible plan operationally or financially.

JoseSalazar · Mon Sep 14, 2020 4:23 am

hiflyeras wrote:
Why is it that I look at all these rosy announcements by B6 with a huge grain of salt? Seems to be more of an exercise in PR, not a sensible plan operationally or financially.

They are paying airplane lease/finance payments, maintenance contract payments, as well as pilots, regardless of whether the planes fly. And gas is cheap right now. May as well see if some new markets work. Not like the planes or labor is needed elsewhere.

catiii · Mon Sep 14, 2020 6:37 am

hiflyeras wrote:
Why is it that I look at all these rosy announcements by B6 with a huge grain of salt? Seems to be more of an exercise in PR, not a sensible plan operationally or financially.

What then, in your opinion, is not sensible operationally or financially about what they’re doing?

hiflyeras · Mon Sep 14, 2020 8:28 am

catiii wrote:
hiflyeras wrote:
Why is it that I look at all these rosy announcements by B6 with a huge grain of salt? Seems to be more of an exercise in PR, not a sensible plan operationally or financially.

What then, in your opinion, is not sensible operationally or financially about what they’re doing?

Well, the first thing that comes to mind is a major expansion into new markets during the worst downturn in the history of commercial aviation.

tphuang · Mon Sep 14, 2020 11:27 am

hiflyeras wrote:
catiii wrote:
hiflyeras wrote:
Why is it that I look at all these rosy announcements by B6 with a huge grain of salt? Seems to be more of an exercise in PR, not a sensible plan operationally or financially.

What then, in your opinion, is not sensible operationally or financially about what they’re doing?

Well, the first thing that comes to mind is a major expansion into new markets during the worst downturn in the history of commercial aviation.

Well, you didn't seem to have an issue when AS announced their own expansion. You seemed pretty convinced AS was ready to take over the world at LAX a month ago.

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1437885&start=350#p22358851

What JetBlue is doing here is not any different. Throw stuff against the wall and see what works. They have a bunch of aircraft sitting around doing nothing. If the bookings are not there, they will just reduce schedule. That's what everyone is doing these days.

jfklganyc · Mon Sep 14, 2020 11:27 am

hiflyeras wrote:
catiii wrote:
hiflyeras wrote:
Why is it that I look at all these rosy announcements by B6 with a huge grain of salt? Seems to be more of an exercise in PR, not a sensible plan operationally or financially.

What then, in your opinion, is not sensible operationally or financially about what they’re doing?

Well, the first thing that comes to mind is a major expansion into new markets during the worst downturn in the history of commercial aviation.

Again, You don’t understand what is going on.

1. they are not expanding anything. Even with all this flying, they will be flying a fraction of what they flew a year ago at this time. Do you understand that?

2. No new resources. These are planes, crews, station personnel, sitting around...being used.

3. This is an airline fighting for its life... trying to make anything work.

And that is every airline at this point.

If things don’t get better in the next 6 months, forget bankruptcies, we are going for major airlines entering Chapter 7.

A lot of people on the site clearly don’t work for airlines, and clearly don’t understand what is going on.

tphuang · Mon Sep 14, 2020 11:59 am

Just taking a look at their adds this week and where they could go from here.

EWR is looking quite good now after the international adds this week. Given their success in these markets out of JFK and with their other EWR island routes, I would expect all of these routes to stick around post pandemic in some format (maybe not daily year round, but at least close to daily in peak seasons). There are still a couple of more Latam destinations like GND, POS, CTG, UVF and LIR that they could try on either seasonal sub daily basis or full year basis if they can get enough demand. At least a couple of these places I think would have at least enough demand for seasonal service.

We should also keep in mind that EWR is under the partnership with AA and there are large portion of NJ/PA that are catchment area for both EWR and PHL. Out of PHL, I can see that PLS, PUJ and SXM do not receive more than 1x weekly service. So, having service at EWR with AA codeshare can also draw AA ff from the area.

Taking a step further, the combined AA and B6 operation at EWR would cover most of Florida, as much of Carribbean as UA, all the major transcons aside from SEA, much of the sun belt. That pretty much covers all the leisure destinations people want to go to. And among business markets, they'd cover Boston, Chicago, Dallas, Charlotte, LAX and SF. That doesn't cover all the traveling needs, but it could convince some people to switch their ff to B6 or AA. And if they want to fly TATL, they can trek to JFK or PHL. They'd never be able to compete with UA on the short business routes, since UA can connect so many people on those flight onto TATL/TPAC flights. But there are still stuff they can add like RDU, BNA, MSY, ACK/MVY, BUF and RIC to be even more relevant.

LAX also took a step forward this week. As JetBlue found with FLL, some places are hard to succeed with pure O&D. The additions this week will certainly need connections to succeed. The additions of PBI/RDU/RIC/CHS were rumored when the original LAX focus city announcement came out. The major surprise came from how soon these routes got announced. I was expecting several A220 to join service before they make these additions. I guess the lack of demand in northeast right now makes all sort of routes more appealing to start. PBI should do well and having mint to start off will help them gain traction. RDU is a route where they will have to undercut competition in prices until they gain more point of sale in LAX. It's kind of like developing MCO-LAX. RIC/CHS are more like BUF. They are hoping that non-stop service at lower fares will stimulate enough demand to fill aircraft. I certainly think RIC shares enough catchment area with nearby airports that lower fares on non-stop service could significantly increase demand level. CHS-LAX will be hard to fill even if they use A220s. They are going to have to really attract some of that CHS/RIC/RDU/BUF-SEA/SLC/SFO/LAS/RNO/HI to fill these flights.

The addition of Central American destinations like CUN/SJO/LIR allows them to capture some of that west coast to central america traffic. In order to get a lot of these routes to work long term, they are going to have to add more frequencies to west coast destinations and more international destinations like GUA and SAL. The fact that they are not ready to make these additions is what made CHS and 2x daily CUN surprising. Although, I do expect them to not operate at those frequencies for the foreseeable future.

I like seeing the RDU/RIC adds. I do think they need to continue to expand beyond Northeast and Florida. These are 2 places they do have some level of brand awareness already. They already had 11% of market share at RIC pre-pandemic. I think both RIC-LAX/TPA will stick around. RIC-LAS is very questionable. I do think they will add JFK/LGA-RIC as AA pulls 50 seaters from NYC. They could very well get to 20% of market share there with direct flights to 7 out of top 10 markets. Not crazy to think they might be able to capture the local market there. They face more of an uphill in RDU with 4 new routes that previously do not have daily service. JetBlue is really just looking to see what sticks. If a couple of these leisure routes stick around, they may add more domestic markets. I continue to think RDU is a good market for them to expand.

SFO-CUN made very little sense to me. I'm encouraged by their willingness to try something out of box in SFO. However, if they wanted to capture some of that SFO leisure demand, why not just try SFO-LAS/PSP?

I assume all the CUN adds is due to additional demands they see going there right now. It seems unlikely that RDU/TPA/SFO will stick around.

jplatts · Mon Sep 14, 2020 3:07 pm

ElroyJetson wrote:
I think most of these B6 additions will work and I see it primarily as a shot across the bow directed at WN and secondarily DL.

The RIC adds are very interesting to me because WN has neglected that market for years. The nonstops to LAX and LAS overflies MDW, DEN, STL, and BNA. WN should have added those markets years ago, but while they slept, UA started flights to DEN that have been very successful, and Allegiant started flights to BNA.

WN connects a lot of West coast traffic to RIC from ATL. B6 is now effectively undercutting quite a bit of that connecting traffic.

WN has already dropped ATL-LAX/OAK nonstop service through at least the end of its current schedule. WN has also already dropped ATL-SAN nonstop service through January 9th with WN resuming ATL-SAN nonstop service on a Sunday-only basis starting on January 10th.

I had mentioned WN adding RIC-DEN nonstop service as a possibility with WN having recently added nonstop service to DEN from a few other destinations inherited through the WN-FL merger such as CLT, DSM, and ICT.

I had also mentioned that WN can also probably get better yields on RIC-DEN than on other East Coast to DEN nonstop routes once demand and fares return to normal levels with F9 not serving RIC, with RIC-DEN having higher average fares than other East Coast to DEN nonstop routes prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, and with a significant amount of passengers traveling between RIC and the Western U.S. prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.

I can also understand WN not adding RIC-DEN nonstop service back in 2013 when WN started Southwest service out of RIC with (a) RIC not having any nonstop service to DEN back in 2013 and (b) WN not serving DEN nonstop from some other East Coast markets such as ALB, BUF, GSP, or ORF back in 2013.

I am surprised that WN hasn't yet added RIC-MDW nonstop service with MDW being a major WN focus city, with RIC being the only WN station on the East Coast that has never had regularly scheduled nonstop service to MDW on WN, with CHI-RIC being one of the top routes that isn't currently served nonstop by WN, and with CHI-RIC having higher PDEW's in 2012 than some of the markets that had gained nonstop service to MDW during the WN-FL merger. WN had also dropped nonstop routes

WN was also probably leaving money on the table by not serving MDW and DEN nonstop from RIC when WN could have probably operated RIC-MDW/DEN nonstop service profitably prior to the COVID-19 pandemic and when the RIC-MDW/DEN adds would have given travelers in the RIC market access to more of the WN network.

I can also understand WN not serving DAL, HOU, LAS, or PHX nonstop from RIC with WN not serving DAL, HOU, LAS, or PHX nonstop from some East Coast markets that are bigger by population than RIC such as GSP, BDL, ORF, and PVD.

I can also understand WN not serving BWI nonstop from RIC with RIC-BWI being shorter than any WN nonstop routes within the contiguous U.S., even though WN adding RIC-BWI nonstop service would provide easier access to the West Coast, Midwest, and Northeast from RIC. The distance of RIC-BWI is only 121 miles, whereas the distance of MDW-GRR (the shortest WN nonstop route within the contiguous U.S.) is 137 miles.

I can also understand WN not adding any new nonstop routes out of RIC during the COVID-19 pandemic with WN making significant cuts throughout its network during the COVID-19 pandemic.

dfwjim1 · Mon Sep 14, 2020 3:29 pm

Perhaps PSP - FLL could be a play for people wanting to take a cruise out of FLL or Miami when the cruise business gets up and running.

BUFJACK10 · Mon Sep 14, 2020 4:34 pm

B6 has 12-13 aircraft stored at BUF. Let’s hope this strategy helps put some of those birds back to work.

ScottB · Mon Sep 14, 2020 4:50 pm

trueblew wrote:
jco613 wrote:
My theory here is B6 was ready to go into MIA but WN beat them to it and WN is going to start NE-MIA routes. Maybe retaliation is a better word in this case

I too think B6 was preparing to enter MIA, likely after the pandemic crisis subsided. Now, not so sure. If WN pulls back a bit at FLL I'm sure B6 will move to backfill.

LOL yeah right. Adding FLL-PSP is a "message" to WN about flights to MIA from the Northeast. It's utterly ridiculous. FLL-PSP isn't a route WN would fly. It's very long and thin and WN's strategic focus is generally on dense short-haul markets. MIA isn't short on gates. If B6 wants to fly to MIA from BOS & NYC they pretty much just need to get into contact with MDAD. And in the current travel environment they'd probably have a far better shot of making MIA-LAX work than PBI-LAX, even if the latter would be a monopoly non-stop.

ElroyJetson wrote:
Spirit and Allegiant have a presence in RIC. G4 is also at ORF. Still B6 has been in the RIC market for years and has a very loyal customer base there. Again, WN has been asleep at wheel for years in the Richmond market. UA, G4, and now B6 are definitely taking advantage and I say good for them.

I don't think too many people would care if WN left RIC. The few token flights to ATL are already well covered by DL with vastly better connections.

People would care because WN still keeps DL and AA pricing in check in the markets which can be reached on WN via ATL. RIC-CLT is nearly 50% more expensive (or was, pre-Covid) than RIC-ATL because there's basically no competition in the former market. And B6 adding non-stops to LAX and LAS has little impact on WN; WN would still have far greater network coverage and relevance to the market by adding non-stops to MDW or DEN if they were to choose to do so.

usflyer msp wrote:
I'm not quite sure why people are making the non-NYC parts of this B6 announcement into some sort of attack against WN.

I think they think B6 competes against WN, when in reality they are clearly trying to take legacy carrier passengers with moves like Mint and planned transatlantic expansion.

OzarkD9S · Mon Sep 14, 2020 5:31 pm

jplatts wrote:

I had also mentioned that WN can also probably get better yields on RIC-DEN than on other East Coast to DEN nonstop routes once demand and fares return to normal levels with F9 not serving RIC, with RIC-DEN having higher average fares than other East Coast to DEN nonstop routes prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, and with a significant amount of passengers traveling between RIC and the Western U.S. prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.

WN was also probably leaving money on the table by not serving MDW and DEN nonstop from RIC when WN could have probably operated RIC-MDW/DEN nonstop service profitably prior to the COVID-19 pandemic and when the RIC-MDW/DEN adds would have given travelers in the RIC market access to more of the WN network.

I can also understand WN not adding any new nonstop routes out of RIC during the COVID-19 pandemic with WN making significant cuts throughout its network during the COVID-19 pandemic.

I can't understand why you felt the need to type out the phrase "COVID-19 pandemic" five times in a single post. :roll:

catiii · Tue Sep 15, 2020 12:38 am

BUFJACK10 wrote:
B6 has 12-13 aircraft stored at BUF. Let’s hope this strategy helps put some of those birds back to work.

Agreed but as I recall, it’s 12 190s and a lone 320 that hasn’t been restyled. In order to accommodate the onboard social distancing they’ll pull the 320s out before they pull out 190s.

lga31vfr · Tue Sep 15, 2020 11:08 am

Tack wrote:
[

Lol love your enthusiasm if not your imagination. Which gates do you see as unused in SEA? Or are you just fan boying here? There’s nothing wrong with that, mind you. That’s the fun of this site. Total dominance at LAX. What do you believe that would like? Again love your enthusiasm. Cheers!

DL has cut a lot of flying at SEA. If they don't use it, they will lose it so I can see JetBlue starting a future round of expansion at SEA. Sure, somewhat ambitious but if you have an airline that wants to, and has the wherewithal to do it,, than B6 can make it work. But its not just DL, other airlines that use SEA, if they don;t come back B6 will move in. And its not just SEA. It will happen at LAX, LGA, JFK, EWR, BOS, FLL. They should really make a push for DEN or DFW. Put the squeeze on DL at DTW and open up a focus city there.

lga31vfr · Tue Sep 15, 2020 11:25 am

tphuang wrote:
[

What JetBlue is doing here is not any different. Throw stuff against the wall and see what works. They have a bunch of aircraft sitting around doing nothing. If the bookings are not there, they will just reduce schedule. That's what everyone is doing these days.

and they can go in and grab market share and gates. Kind of like Monopoly. Gates at LAX, EWR, JFK, LGA, SEA, BOS, FLL, XXX. I firmly believe there will be an expansion every few months with 20 or so new flights that eventually will enable JetBlue to take over good chunk of the domestic market,

BA744PHX · Tue Sep 15, 2020 11:37 am

lga31vfr wrote:
tphuang wrote:
[

What JetBlue is doing here is not any different. Throw stuff against the wall and see what works. They have a bunch of aircraft sitting around doing nothing. If the bookings are not there, they will just reduce schedule. That's what everyone is doing these days.

and they can go in and grab market share and gates. Kind of like Monopoly. Gates at LAX, EWR, JFK, LGA, SEA, BOS, FLL, XXX. I firmly believe there will be an expansion every few months with 20 or so new flights that eventually will enable JetBlue to take over good chunk of the domestic market,

B6 lacks the fleet to take a good chuck of the domestic market

bpat777 · Tue Sep 15, 2020 12:22 pm

lga31vfr wrote:
tphuang wrote:
[

What JetBlue is doing here is not any different. Throw stuff against the wall and see what works. They have a bunch of aircraft sitting around doing nothing. If the bookings are not there, they will just reduce schedule. That's what everyone is doing these days.

and they can go in and grab market share and gates. Kind of like Monopoly. Gates at LAX, EWR, JFK, LGA, SEA, BOS, FLL, XXX. I firmly believe there will be an expansion every few months with 20 or so new flights that eventually will enable JetBlue to take over good chunk of the domestic market,

That's going to be a lot easier said than done. I'm not sure B6 has the fleet for that.

trueblew · Tue Sep 15, 2020 1:02 pm

lga31vfr wrote:
Tack wrote:
[

Lol love your enthusiasm if not your imagination. Which gates do you see as unused in SEA? Or are you just fan boying here? There’s nothing wrong with that, mind you. That’s the fun of this site. Total dominance at LAX. What do you believe that would like? Again love your enthusiasm. Cheers!

DL has cut a lot of flying at SEA. If they don't use it, they will lose it so I can see JetBlue starting a future round of expansion at SEA. Sure, somewhat ambitious but if you have an airline that wants to, and has the wherewithal to do it,, than B6 can make it work. But its not just DL, other airlines that use SEA, if they don;t come back B6 will move in. And its not just SEA. It will happen at LAX, LGA, JFK, EWR, BOS, FLL. They should really make a push for DEN or DFW. Put the squeeze on DL at DTW and open up a focus city there.

I can bet you everything I own there will not be an organic B6 focus city in DEN, DFW or DTW.

B6 will be seek ways to take more share in its current focus cities (particularly NYC and LA) and maybe expand other places which don't have much competition. They have neither the desire nor the ability to start an outright war right now, or ever.

catiii · Tue Sep 15, 2020 1:20 pm

trueblew wrote:

I can bet you everything I own there will not be an organic B6 focus city in DEN, DFW or DTW.

I'll also throw in everything that I own...

BA744PHX · Tue Sep 15, 2020 1:28 pm

trueblew wrote:
lga31vfr wrote:
Tack wrote:
[

Lol love your enthusiasm if not your imagination. Which gates do you see as unused in SEA? Or are you just fan boying here? There’s nothing wrong with that, mind you. That’s the fun of this site. Total dominance at LAX. What do you believe that would like? Again love your enthusiasm. Cheers!

DL has cut a lot of flying at SEA. If they don't use it, they will lose it so I can see JetBlue starting a future round of expansion at SEA. Sure, somewhat ambitious but if you have an airline that wants to, and has the wherewithal to do it,, than B6 can make it work. But its not just DL, other airlines that use SEA, if they don;t come back B6 will move in. And its not just SEA. It will happen at LAX, LGA, JFK, EWR, BOS, FLL. They should really make a push for DEN or DFW. Put the squeeze on DL at DTW and open up a focus city there.

I can bet you everything I own there will not be an organic B6 focus city in DEN, DFW or DTW.

B6 will be seek ways to take more share in its current focus cities (particularly NYC and LA) and maybe expand other places which don't have much competition. They have neither the desire nor the ability to start an outright war right now, or ever.

This seems like the kool-aid drinking bunch isn't? How DTW got thrown into that mix is even more hilarious.

***IF*** there is another expansion by B6, it will likely be additional LAX, MCO, TPA & FLL only

Nicknuzzii · Tue Sep 15, 2020 1:31 pm

BA744PHX wrote:
trueblew wrote:
lga31vfr wrote:

DL has cut a lot of flying at SEA. If they don't use it, they will lose it so I can see JetBlue starting a future round of expansion at SEA. Sure, somewhat ambitious but if you have an airline that wants to, and has the wherewithal to do it,, than B6 can make it work. But its not just DL, other airlines that use SEA, if they don;t come back B6 will move in. And its not just SEA. It will happen at LAX, LGA, JFK, EWR, BOS, FLL. They should really make a push for DEN or DFW. Put the squeeze on DL at DTW and open up a focus city there.

I can bet you everything I own there will not be an organic B6 focus city in DEN, DFW or DTW.

B6 will be seek ways to take more share in its current focus cities (particularly NYC and LA) and maybe expand other places which don't have much competition. They have neither the desire nor the ability to start an outright war right now, or ever.

This seems like the kool-aid drinking bunch isn't? How DTW got thrown into that mix is even more hilarious.

***IF*** there is another expansion by B6, it will likely be additional LAX, MCO, TPA & FLL only

Why would EWR be overlooked?

Tack · Tue Sep 15, 2020 1:40 pm

lga31vfr wrote:
Tack wrote:
[

Lol love your enthusiasm if not your imagination. Which gates do you see as unused in SEA? Or are you just fan boying here? There’s nothing wrong with that, mind you. That’s the fun of this site. Total dominance at LAX. What do you believe that would like? Again love your enthusiasm. Cheers!

DL has cut a lot of flying at SEA. If they don't use it, they will lose it so I can see JetBlue starting a future round of expansion at SEA. Sure, somewhat ambitious but if you have an airline that wants to, and has the wherewithal to do it,, than B6 can make it work. But its not just DL, other airlines that use SEA, if they don;t come back B6 will move in. And its not just SEA. It will happen at LAX, LGA, JFK, EWR, BOS, FLL. They should really make a push for DEN or DFW. Put the squeeze on DL at DTW and open up a focus city there.

Not 1 chance in hell that DL gives up any gate space in SEA. Not 1. Both AS and DL will fight to the death to hold what they have. And with AS soon to be a newly minted OW member? DL isn’t going to budge. And I say this as a recently retired 36yr AS employee.

tphuang · Tue Sep 15, 2020 1:54 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
BA744PHX wrote:
trueblew wrote:

I can bet you everything I own there will not be an organic B6 focus city in DEN, DFW or DTW.

B6 will be seek ways to take more share in its current focus cities (particularly NYC and LA) and maybe expand other places which don't have much competition. They have neither the desire nor the ability to start an outright war right now, or ever.

This seems like the kool-aid drinking bunch isn't? How DTW got thrown into that mix is even more hilarious.

***IF*** there is another expansion by B6, it will likely be additional LAX, MCO, TPA & FLL only

Why would EWR be overlooked?

I'm not sure why people are taking lga31vfr's comments seriously.

The next major item is the AA/B6 partnership agreement getting formalized. After that, I think we will sse more route announcement out of all 3 NYC airport and BOS.

The more I think about it, the more I think UA has a problem on its hand at EWR by the time the pandemic is over. Especially if business travel and TATL/TPAC travel take a long to recover.

trueblew · Tue Sep 15, 2020 2:51 pm

tphuang wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
BA744PHX wrote:

This seems like the kool-aid drinking bunch isn't? How DTW got thrown into that mix is even more hilarious.

***IF*** there is another expansion by B6, it will likely be additional LAX, MCO, TPA & FLL only

Why would EWR be overlooked?

I'm not sure why people are taking lga31vfr's comments seriously.

The next major item is the AA/B6 partnership agreement getting formalized. After that, I think we will sse more route announcement out of all 3 NYC airport and BOS.

The more I think about it, the more I think UA has a problem on its hand at EWR by the time the pandemic is over. Especially if business travel and TATL/TPAC travel take a long to recover.

I'm not sure either. He's way out in left field, and he's no fanboy either based on his comments in post #126 about "why even bother" at EWR, UA has it locked down.

I agree UA will have an issue if biz/long haul doesn't return in earnest. As they shrink their CASM increases, and they will be increasingly challenged to compete on VFR/leisure from EWR.

tphuang · Tue Sep 15, 2020 7:03 pm

just saw this RH interview
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/09/14/j ... eturn.html
He says JetBlue is seeing good booking numbers to CUN, AUA and MBJ among the leisure markets. Sounds like bookings have improved for a few weeks. And of course, DR and PR are still their top performers.

I'd venture to guess these new island adds out of EWR will do better than most of those domestic adds for a while.

richierich · Tue Sep 15, 2020 11:41 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
I don’t understand why people obsessed with “shots across the bow.”

If you work at an airline right now, and you were not just an enthusiast with a keyboard, They are just trying to survive.

Not just B6...every airline.

EWR and LAX were planned...the crisis allowed it to happen sooner.

Everything else is about using parked planes and making money at the moment.

“They will fly as long as they can...” that is what they are saying

There are no games, no plays, no gotchas.

Dont be the first to collapse. Airline Survivor 2020

Can't remember the last time I agreed with you about anything, but I think this is 100% true. Cash preservation versus 'the planes got to fly somewhere' - I think that's what we are seeing from B6 and some of the other airline adds lately.

hiflyeras · Wed Sep 16, 2020 6:24 pm

Thank you Cranky. I feel a bit vindicated from the poo thrown at me from my previous post.

https://crankyflier.com/2020/09/15/jetb ... kes-sense/

lostsound · Wed Sep 16, 2020 6:48 pm

I have sneaky suspicion B6 is going to become a top contender at LAX. B6 & millennials go together like two peas in a pod & LAX draws a lot of them.

KLMatSJC · Wed Sep 16, 2020 7:00 pm

lostsound wrote:
B6 & millennials go together like two peas in a pod & LAX draws a lot of them.

Millennials fly the cheapest option.

Nicknuzzii · Wed Sep 16, 2020 7:10 pm

KLMatSJC wrote:
lostsound wrote:
B6 & millennials go together like two peas in a pod & LAX draws a lot of them.

Millennials fly the cheapest option.

I have never met a millennial willing to fly frontier...

CobaltScar · Wed Sep 16, 2020 8:06 pm

KLMatSJC wrote:
lostsound wrote:
B6 & millennials go together like two peas in a pod & LAX draws a lot of them.

Millennials fly the cheapest option.

If that were true, the lines at Starbucks would not be so packed with them buying overpriced coffee non stop.

KLMatSJC · Wed Sep 16, 2020 8:41 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
KLMatSJC wrote:
lostsound wrote:
B6 & millennials go together like two peas in a pod & LAX draws a lot of them.

Millennials fly the cheapest option.

I have never met a millennial willing to fly frontier...

I haven't met a person of any age that enjoys flying ULCCs.

hbernal1 · Wed Sep 16, 2020 11:50 pm

KLMatSJC wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
KLMatSJC wrote:
Millennials fly the cheapest option.

I have never met a millennial willing to fly frontier...

I haven't met a person of any age that enjoys flying ULCCs.

Mid 20s here - I really don't like ULCCs, a lot of people my age who I know choose WN over NK or F9, but I also live in SoCal so what do I know? Lol - going back to B6, judging from my conversations with people, it does seem to be true that B6 doesn't have the level of exposure here that WN or legacies have here since B6 for a long time only flew to 4 or 5 cities out of LAX (I fly to visit family in Florida) and don't fly out of SNA. But it looks like they're really sticking to becoming at least somewhat relevant at LAX - I do believe they need to open a station in SNA and have some more short haul flying at LAX to be at least moderately successful there long-term.

lga31vfr wrote:
I actually think there will be another wave of JetBlue expansion on the horizon. I think they have a very good chance of taking over unused gates at LGA, BOS, LAX, SEA, JFK, EWR....With the majors cutting back more flights than the LCC's, and having to relinquish gates, I see JetBlue swooping in and taking them all over. Its what they do. I am sure some on here will agree 100%. I can see JetBlue being second in command as far as domestic travel goes, right behind Southwest. I think JetBlue will have total dominance at LAX in the very near future as well as RDU.

I'm sure a number of us on this thread would love to see B6 stick it to WN in terms of domestic traffic, but for them to do that, they'd have to expand in places like ATL, DEN, DFW, DTW, IAH, MSP, ORD, PHX, SAN, SEA and add stations like CVG, CMH, IND, MCI, MKE, and STL. Which B6 doesn't have the resources for. They'd need at least 3 new focus cities (and I'd be hard-pressed to think of one new focus city that would end well for B6 outside the East Coast, they had the opportunity with AUS but I think that ship sailed). Which B6 doesn't have the resources for. They'd also have to hope that incumbents in those airports will just roll over and let B6 take over. Which they absolutely will not. On top of the huge commitment of resources for current expansions at LAX and EWR just to become relevant in those airports. Again, I'd love to see B6 grow into a domestic travel juggernaut but with its current ops and COVID hammering the whole industry, it's not happening anytime soon.

Moosefire · Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:50 am

KLMatSJC wrote:
lostsound wrote:
B6 & millennials go together like two peas in a pod & LAX draws a lot of them.

Millennials fly the cheapest option.

You realize a massive chunk of millennials are in their 30s right?

I shop 1) loyalty program 2) schedule 3) price in that order. Pre and post covid.

tphuang · Sat Sep 19, 2020 10:47 pm

Another week is over and we've now seen the first photo of what appears to be A321NEO mint. I'm expecting this one and the 5 non-LR delivery next year to all be in mint config. I guess the new aircraft will be configured with 10 rows of 1-1 suite in the mint cabin and 22 and half to 23 and half rows of Y seating for a total of 154 to 160 seats. This will be more competitive than the mint 1.0. I think it will be put on the all important JFK-LAX route. The additional mint fleet will allow them to operate all the EWR flights without cutting back other routes. I think they will need more of these aircraft for additional EWR frequencies and LAX to Hawaii. Given their revised order book, they won't get another standard A321NEO until 2023.

RH and JG are sounding more optimistic publicly about the revenue performances. I think once the AA partnership gets formalized, you will see quite a few routes get announced. A lot of the perspective routes will be easier if they can get those AA ff to fly them also. I'm guessing they will get enough slots to operate 50 flights at LGA and 230 flights at JFK by 2022.

With October schedule more or less stabilized, taking a look at how much the 30 new routes are scheduling vs announced based on Oct schedule.
EWR-LAX 2 to 3 (just 1 less than UA on peak days) - originally scheduled for 3 and then expanded to 5 post LGB
EWR-SFO 1 daily vs 2 daily
EWR-LAS 2 daily (no reduction)
EWR-AUS 4x weekly vs 2 daily
EWR-SAN 4x weekly vs 1 daily
EWR-PHX 4x weekly vs 2 daily
EWR-CHS 5x weekly vs 1 daily
EWR-JAX 5x weekly vs 1 daily
EWR-SRQ 2x weekly vs 1 daily
LAX-SFO 2x daily (no reduction, AA only at 2x and WN only at 3x)
LAX-LAS 2x daily (no reduction, AA only at 1x and UA only as 2x)
LAX-AUS 4x weekly vs 1 daily (not far off competitor, only DL is at more than 1x daily)
LAX-SEA 4x weekly vs 1 daily (UA at 2x, everyone else more)
LAX-RNO 4x weekly vs 1 daily (only competition 1x WN and 1-2x UA)
LAX-SLC 1x vs 2 daily (AA/WN/UA all at 1x)
JFK-DFW/DTW/MSP 4x weekly vs 2 daily
JFK-STT not scheduled for october
LGA-RSW 3x weekly vs 1 daily
LGA-TPA 3x weekly vs 2 daily
PHL-TPA 4x weekly vs 1 daily
PHL-MCO 4-5x weekly vs 2 daily
PHL-PBI 4x weekly vs 2daily
PHL-RSW 4x weekly vs 1 daily
PHL-SJU 1 daily (no reduction)
FLL-PIT 4x weekly vs 1 daily
FLL-SEA 2x weekly vs 3x weekly
FLL-PDX not scheduled
MCO-SFO 1x weekly vs 1 daily
PIT-PBI 3x weekly vs 1 daily
ORD-PBI 2x weekly vs 1 daily
DCA-TPA 4x weekly vs 1 daily
PVD-TPA 4x weekly vs 1 daily
PVD-RSW 3x weekly vs 1 daily
CLE-RSW 2x weekly vs 1 daily

I think schedule reduction on these routes are a combination of the demand level and also how importantly JetBlue views that route and the associated station. Clearly, JetBlue is trying to reduce EWR and LAX routes the least out of all of them. When leisure demand do get back to like 80% of 2019 level out of NYC, I fully expect some of these routes to get added frequencies. And for LAX, they are actually not running that much less flight than some of their competitors in most of these markets. So I think as demand comes back, they will have add to have more competitive schedule and connection option than what a lot of people give them credit for. Do I see them operating the same number of flight on LAX-SFO/LAS as LAX-CUN? No. I expect SFO/LAS will be 3-4 daily before LAX-CUN ever operates at 2 daily.

I'm not sure how long the PHL stuff will last. I think SJU will last, but the a couple of Florida stuff might get dropped as soon as the AA partnership concludes.

Also, I think the level of reduction out of the 2 MCO routes cements my belief that MCO will be less important to JetBlue for a while. I'm actually surprised that they started all of these other random Florida routes. Maybe a couple of them will stick around.

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