Nicknuzzii wrote:tphuang wrote:That argument would only working if unblocking seats would reduce the number of flights they would offer. There is no evidence of that. For example, they didn't cancel more flights when they increased seat cap from 60 to 70%.
The LF out of NYC is lower than rest of the country. Only a very small % of flights will even hit the seat cap they are imposing. And more importantly, they advertise a much larger schedule after first cut and then cancel out flights that can't cover their incremental cost. Incremental costs don't change when you unblock all seats. So it would make no sense for them to offer fewer flights if they unblock seats.
My points about EWR and LAX are with respect to fighting for gate access. At EWR, Looking at NK's # of flights is important, because they are the only other airline looking to get additional gate resources. Obviously up to this point, NK has only got 1 additional gate whereas B6 got possibly 5 more. But it certainly would not be surprising if NK ends up with more gates than that in the new T-1. And at LAX, the fewer flights AA has at T-5, the more likely it is for JetBlue to take over the non-AA gates once the ULCCs move out.
As for EWR the numbers shift a little bit when you look at the end of November. UA has 182 peak day departures. B6 35, NK 23. NK will definitely need more than 3 gates for this schedule so similar to during July they will use the B common use gates. Once terminal 1 opens, I think things will get a little dicey.
AA should take 6 gates
AS 2 + 1 common use
AC 2 + 1 common use
B6 10 + X common use gates?
Will NK make the move? DL has expressed interest. F9 also isn’t too happy with the timing of their flights having to use B.
NK will have no problem doing 23 flights in 3 gates. They routinely did 9 turns per gate at LAX. B6 appears to have way too many gates for the schedule they run now. Which means they are hoarding gates in preparation for the move into T-1 and also have more expansion in mind. d I don't see AS needing that much gate resource if they just gave up one of their gates to B6.
The advantage that JetBlue has over NK is just the high operating cost out of EWR. NK is apparently paying $11 million per year on lease for 3 gates, which works out to be close to $1 million a month or 30k a day. I think the cost of real estate in addition to JetBlue's relationship with PA is probably what allowed them to add the additional gates. It's certainly in their best interest and UA's best interest to keep NK from leasing more gates.