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aemoreira1981
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Re: JetBlue Secures Slots For BOS-STN, JFK-LGW

Tue Nov 17, 2020 10:19 pm

tb727 wrote:
I know there are a lot of B6 fans here on a.net, and they do have a nice domestic product the couple times I've flown on them, but I think this is a terrible decision on their part to cross the Atlantic. I just don't think the money will be there.


At least they aren’t doing so with wide bodies, but rather with Mint narrow bodies. I could see them watching the DI situation as slots there are collateral. B6 should be making calls to their creditors, which would allow them to concentrate at Gatwick.
 
Seat1D
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Re: JetBlue Secures Slots For BOS-STN, JFK-LGW

Tue Nov 17, 2020 11:11 pm

I mean, what will B6's plan be if the STN to BOS flight is unable to fly due to Bad weather? What about mechanical delays? With only one flight a day from an overseas destination,, that in and of itself spells trouble
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Secures Slots For BOS-STN, JFK-LGW

Tue Nov 17, 2020 11:19 pm

Seat1D wrote:
I mean, what will B6's plan be if the STN to BOS flight is unable to fly due to Bad weather? What about mechanical delays? With only one flight a day from an overseas destination,, that in and of itself spells trouble

they have interlining with FI, EI and TP I think.
 
alfa164
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Re: JetBlue Secures Slots For BOS-STN, JFK-LGW

Tue Nov 17, 2020 11:37 pm

Seat1D wrote:
I mean, what will B6's plan be if the STN to BOS flight is unable to fly due to Bad weather? What about mechanical delays? With only one flight a day from an overseas destination,, that in and of itself spells trouble


Based on the slots they got, they will have two flights a day between BOS and STN - and I think a plethora of empty seats will prove to be a bigger liability than the occasional mechanical or weather delay.
 
hiflyeras
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Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2011 6:48 pm

Re: JetBlue Secures Slots For BOS-STN, JFK-LGW

Tue Nov 17, 2020 11:46 pm

alfa164 wrote:
Based on the slots they got, they will have two flights a day between BOS and STN - and I think a plethora of empty seats will prove to be a bigger liability than the occasional mechanical or weather delay.


But it’ll be great for the non-revs!
 
santi319
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Re: JetBlue Secures Slots For BOS-STN, JFK-LGW

Wed Nov 18, 2020 12:43 am

hiflyeras wrote:
alfa164 wrote:
Based on the slots they got, they will have two flights a day between BOS and STN - and I think a plethora of empty seats will prove to be a bigger liability than the occasional mechanical or weather delay.


But it’ll be great for the non-revs!

The amount of time and $ wasted going from STN to London is not really worth it..
 
hiflyeras
Posts: 2382
Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2011 6:48 pm

Re: JetBlue Secures Slots For BOS-STN, JFK-LGW

Wed Nov 18, 2020 12:45 am

santi319 wrote:
The amount of time and $ wasted going from STN to London is not really worth it..


And there you go...kind of sums up the whole STN master plan. Good luck, B6.
 
skipness1E
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Joined: Sun Aug 19, 2007 9:18 am

Re: JetBlue Secures Slots For BOS-STN, JFK-LGW

Wed Nov 18, 2020 12:46 am

N770WD wrote:
alfa164 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
that seems to be 2 daily flights to BOS and 1 to JFK. That covers the 3 A321LRs they are taking next year.


One daily BOS-STN is dubious, at best. Two daily is looking for a financial disaster.


It's wrong to think the traffic isn't there ex STN, or that premium passengers won't originate there. They will and did before. In 2007 MAXjet, Eos and Silverjet were carrying an average of 50 revenue premium passengers per departure from STN/LTN to New York, at fares that weren't dissimilar to what Mint sells for. In the fall of 2007 they were carrying 8,000 passengers per month directionally LON-NYC. While Las Vegas also worked for MAXjet (for different reasons - this was before Open Skies) the other premium value markets tried didn't work, including Washington. As long as JetBlue is going to be connecting passengers via BOS to other US points, and can aggregate enough traffic, I think this will be work out OK. They won't get the same yield profile they would at Heathrow, but as a smart airline guru I know likes to say, airlines need routes they can call their own. In this case, at this time, JetBlue is going to get a chance to see if a secondary airport play works.

Eos and Maxjet made so much money doing so they went bust. JetBlue is entering the London market, not the Stansted, Norwich or Cambridge market. They clearly want to be at Heathrow and will be off first chance they get. LGW and STN are waiting rooms for LHR. Many of the tech companies are already sewn up via the major players. Initially JetBlue are going to have to go low cost point to point to build market share and with the majors fighting for their very survival, I fully expect a bloodbath. What's your USP to market on a single daily BOS-LON rotation on an A321 when BA/AA offer higher frequency on wide bodied equipment? It's only going to be price for the first few years, or market niche to the Stansted wider market. But that's not high volume enough IMHO. As for Gatters, well nothing ever changes on the long haul front. Low cost is the only winner, might be a better bet for B6.
 
skipness1E
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Re: JetBlue Secures Slots For BOS-STN, JFK-LGW

Wed Nov 18, 2020 12:47 am

tphuang wrote:
Seat1D wrote:
I mean, what will B6's plan be if the STN to BOS flight is unable to fly due to Bad weather? What about mechanical delays? With only one flight a day from an overseas destination,, that in and of itself spells trouble

they have interlining with FI, EI and TP I think.

None of whom fly from Stansted and Heathrow is a massive trek on the M3/M25.
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: JetBlue Secures Slots For BOS-STN, JFK-LGW

Wed Nov 18, 2020 1:15 am

I have refrained comment to chew on this for 24 hours.

This is pathetic if it is true.

I am on board with Jfk to Gatwick… But one daily; they are just wasting their time. What is particularly absurd is the fact that there are plenty of slots sitting around with the demise of Norwegian.

Stanstead from Boston is a joke. This is like the early days when serving Ontario was supposed to serve LA. This is almost beneath the stature of an airline like Jetblue.

Frankly, for an airline that was shooting for Heathrow, I don’t know what happened. But something changed
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Secures Slots For BOS-STN, JFK-LGW

Wed Nov 18, 2020 1:52 am

the problem is that LGW slots on initial allocation are not as abundant at this point as we thought. DY is pretending it will need more slots next summer than it requested in 2020, even though it probably won't last 2 or 3 more months. VS can keep holding on to its LGW slots despite closing its operations there due to the slot waivers. BA is unlikely to run much of an operation at LGW, but can keep holding on to its slots due to slot waivers. As long as LGW/LHR doesn't require the airlines use their slots, incumbent airlines can keep their slots.

If STN is more than a contingency plan for JetBlue, the route planners need to get their brains checked out. In this low demand TATL environment, it would be better for them to park the LRs or use them domestic transcon or LAX-HNL than run 2x on BOS-STN.

I have no issues with 1x on JFK-LGW for now. DY is going to go belly up. BA is unlikely to operate JFK-LGW for a while imo. So they won't have any competition to start off in a market that should have some high yield demand. They can add more flights as they receive more LRs in 2022.

If they can get the remedial slot on BOS-LHR, that's what they should operate. 2x BOS-LGW seem like too much capacity next summer.

What's your USP to market on a single daily BOS-LON rotation on an A321 when BA/AA offer higher frequency on wide bodied equipment?

You mean like AA operating 1x JFK-CDG on 767 against DL/AF with 5x larger wide bodies pre-pandemic and apparently performing quite well? What is this fascination with high frequency on TATL and wide body equipment? A321LR will have much fewer seats to fill and similar CASM to the widebodies. And most flights from NYC to Europe only have 1 flight in that 7 to 10 pm window. Unless you are one of the few who must fly out within an one hour window, I can assure you most people don't care whether the flight leaves at 7:30 or 9:30 pm.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Nov 18, 2020 2:00 am

Aside from the embarrassing promotion of mint 2.0 soft product that pissed off a bunch of avgeeks, JetBlue did absolutely nothing today. The most interesting news I got today was actual from AA. AA expects there to be reciprocal upgrae benefits for elite ff with B6 and AS. Firm details coming in the next few weeks. The DOT imposed waiting period for AA/B6 to implement their partnership expires on Nov 19 and JetBlue's VP of loyalty is doing a webinar on TPG on Nov 20. Maybe we will finally hear a little more on how the AA deal will work out.

Also, just doing some brainstorming on what JetBlue should've added. It seems to me that Florida panhandles is one area that they have not tried at all. I took a look at PDEW data from 2019 Q3, it came out to about 240 a day between PNS/VPS/ECP and NYC with another 50 to TLH and some number to Mobile, AL. BOS demand is about 1/2 of NYC. There is no real competition to in this market. This seems to be one leisure market that could easily support year round A320 flight to NYC. Either JFK-ECP/VPS would work.
 
Seat1D
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Re: JetBlue Secures Slots For BOS-STN, JFK-LGW

Wed Nov 18, 2020 2:10 am

Anyone have flight times?
 
RodFarva
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Re: JetBlue Secures Slots For BOS-STN, JFK-LGW

Wed Nov 18, 2020 7:07 am

tphuang wrote:
the problem is that LGW slots on initial allocation are not as abundant at this point as we thought. DY is pretending it will need more slots next summer than it requested in 2020, even though it probably won't last 2 or 3 more months. VS can keep holding on to its LGW slots despite closing its operations there due to the slot waivers. BA is unlikely to run much of an operation at LGW, but can keep holding on to its slots due to slot waivers. As long as LGW/LHR doesn't require the airlines use their slots, incumbent airlines can keep their slots.

If STN is more than a contingency plan for JetBlue, the route planners need to get their brains checked out. In this low demand TATL environment, it would be better for them to park the LRs or use them domestic transcon or LAX-HNL than run 2x on BOS-STN.

I have no issues with 1x on JFK-LGW for now. DY is going to go belly up. BA is unlikely to operate JFK-LGW for a while imo. So they won't have any competition to start off in a market that should have some high yield demand. They can add more flights as they receive more LRs in 2022.

If they can get the remedial slot on BOS-LHR, that's what they should operate. 2x BOS-LGW seem like too much capacity next summer.

What's your USP to market on a single daily BOS-LON rotation on an A321 when BA/AA offer higher frequency on wide bodied equipment?

You mean like AA operating 1x JFK-CDG on 767 against DL/AF with 5x larger wide bodies pre-pandemic and apparently performing quite well? What is this fascination with high frequency on TATL and wide body equipment? A321LR will have much fewer seats to fill and similar CASM to the widebodies. And most flights from NYC to Europe only have 1 flight in that 7 to 10 pm window. Unless you are one of the few who must fly out within an one hour window, I can assure you most people don't care whether the flight leaves at 7:30 or 9:30 pm.



You know what their delivery schedule is for next year as well as anybody does. They'll have a whopping 3 planes to operate these flights for all of next year. Presumably 2 flights a day since one plane will likely be a spare. So they'll probably run one flight each from BOS and JFK. I'm betting they'll be operating BOS-LHR and JFK-LGW up to 1x daily by the end of next summer. I think they have a really good shot of getting LHR remedy slots for BOS but JFK might be a stretch.
 
2travel2know2
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Re: JetBlue Secures Slots For BOS-STN, JFK-LGW

Wed Nov 18, 2020 8:31 am

tphuang wrote:
the problem is that LGW slots on initial allocation are not as abundant at this point as we thought. DY is pretending it will need more slots next summer than it requested in 2020, even though it probably won't last 2 or 3 more months. VS can keep holding on to its LGW slots despite closing its operations there due to the slot waivers. BA is unlikely to run much of an operation at LGW, but can keep holding on to its slots due to slot waivers. As long as LGW/LHR doesn't require the airlines use their slots, incumbent airlines can keep their slots.

If STN is more than a contingency plan for JetBlue, the route planners need to get their brains checked out. In this low demand TATL environment, it would be better for them to park the LRs or use them domestic transcon or LAX-HNL than run 2x on BOS-STN.

I have no issues with 1x on JFK-LGW for now. DY is going to go belly up. BA is unlikely to operate JFK-LGW for a while imo. So they won't have any competition to start off in a market that should have some high yield demand. They can add more flights as they receive more LRs in 2022.

If they can get the remedial slot on BOS-LHR, that's what they should operate. 2x BOS-LGW seem like too much capacity next summer.

What’s the major issue with LGW slots on initial allocation?
The times B6 wants its BOS flight to operate?
B6 could well fly daily BOS-LGW-JFK and JFK-LGW-BOS.
 
Boeing74741R
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Re: JetBlue Secures Slots For BOS-STN, JFK-LGW

Wed Nov 18, 2020 9:37 am

To all those wondering why not LHR. It’s been mentioned that LHR slots (if there are any going spare) are expensive, so if you’re new to a market it makes sense to keep costs low which means going to a cheaper airport, especially if one of the selling points is going to be on the basis of being cheaper than the competition.

If the flights are successful and JetBlue gain a foothold in the market, a LHR operation could be justified in the future.

As for splitting ops between STN and LGW, it’s either all they could get or they see something nobody else has. Time will tell!

For now, there’s just the small matter of reopening the border to worry about first. If the US border remains closed well into 2021, I expect there to be virtually no demand irrespective of London airport.
 
chonetsao
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Re: JetBlue Secures Slots For BOS-STN, JFK-LGW

Wed Nov 18, 2020 9:54 am

santi319 wrote:
The amount of time and $ wasted going from STN to London is not really worth it..


You really need to define where in London you are talking about. Using two landmarks and one district as example:

1, Big Ben
London Stanstead to Big Ben
Drive: 64 minutes and 39 miles
Public Transportation: 63 minutes

Heathrow Terminal 3 to Big Ben
Drive: 51 or 63 minutes in 17.3 - 19.7 miles
Public Transportation: 50 or 63 minutes (50 minutes with Heathrow Express and 63 with underground)

Heathrow Terminal 5 to Big Ben
Drive: 55 or 62 minutes
Public Transportation: 55 or 62 minutes (55 minutes with Heathrow Express and 62 with underground)

2, Tower of London
London Stanstead to Tower of London
Drive: 53 minutes and 36.5 miles
Public Transportation: 67 minutes

Heathrow Terminal 3 to Tower of London:
Drive: 64 minutes in 19.7 miles
Public Transportation: 72 minutes to 84 minutes (72 minutes with Heathrow Express and 84 minutes with underground)

Heathrow Terminal 5 to Tower of London
Drive: 65 or 81 minutes in 22.6 -30 miles
Public Transportation: 68 or 75 minutes (no difference whether you take Heathrow Express or not)

3, Canary Wharf, the London financial hub
London Stanstead to Canary Wharf:
Drive: 41 minutes in 34.4 miles
Public Transportation: 74 minutes

Heathrow Terminal 3 to Canary Wharf
Drive: 73 minutes in 22.5 miles
Public Transportation: 75 minutes

Heathrow Terminal 5 to Canary Wharf
Drive: 74 minutes in 25.3 miles
Public Transportation: 69 minutes or 79 minutes (69 minutes using Heathrow Express)

Above figure all from Google Maps direction as of today. Google estimate 7 minutes walk from London Heathrow Terminal 3 to the underground station thus times are similar or longer compare to Heathrow Terminal 5 when using public transportation.

Notice how similar the time spend to London Stanstead is marginally quicker to Tower of London region compare with Heathrow Terminal 5? And notice how much quicker it is to drive from Stanstead to Canary Wharf? I am not saying you are wrong. But I would like to present real figures to people interested to see in order to make their own decisions.
 
f4f3a
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Re: JetBlue Secures Slots For BOS-STN, JFK-LGW

Wed Nov 18, 2020 11:09 am

Agree think Luton would be better if they could get the payload out. Only reason I can see stn being chosen is links to Cambridge uni plus tech . I would imagine that jet b would join worldwide self connect but can't imagine anything being interlined as it's not in easyJet interest
 
RvA
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Re: JetBlue Secures Slots For BOS-STN, JFK-LGW

Wed Nov 18, 2020 12:15 pm

chonetsao wrote:
santi319 wrote:
The amount of time and $ wasted going from STN to London is not really worth it..


You really need to define where in London you are talking about. Using two landmarks and one district as example:

1, Big Ben
London Stanstead to Big Ben
Drive: 64 minutes and 39 miles
Public Transportation: 63 minutes

Heathrow Terminal 3 to Big Ben
Drive: 51 or 63 minutes in 17.3 - 19.7 miles
Public Transportation: 50 or 63 minutes (50 minutes with Heathrow Express and 63 with underground)

Heathrow Terminal 5 to Big Ben
Drive: 55 or 62 minutes
Public Transportation: 55 or 62 minutes (55 minutes with Heathrow Express and 62 with underground)

2, Tower of London
London Stanstead to Tower of London
Drive: 53 minutes and 36.5 miles
Public Transportation: 67 minutes

Heathrow Terminal 3 to Tower of London:
Drive: 64 minutes in 19.7 miles
Public Transportation: 72 minutes to 84 minutes (72 minutes with Heathrow Express and 84 minutes with underground)

Heathrow Terminal 5 to Tower of London
Drive: 65 or 81 minutes in 22.6 -30 miles
Public Transportation: 68 or 75 minutes (no difference whether you take Heathrow Express or not)

3, Canary Wharf, the London financial hub
London Stanstead to Canary Wharf:
Drive: 41 minutes in 34.4 miles
Public Transportation: 74 minutes

Heathrow Terminal 3 to Canary Wharf
Drive: 73 minutes in 22.5 miles
Public Transportation: 75 minutes

Heathrow Terminal 5 to Canary Wharf
Drive: 74 minutes in 25.3 miles
Public Transportation: 69 minutes or 79 minutes (69 minutes using Heathrow Express)

Above figure all from Google Maps direction as of today. Google estimate 7 minutes walk from London Heathrow Terminal 3 to the underground station thus times are similar or longer compare to Heathrow Terminal 5 when using public transportation.

Notice how similar the time spend to London Stanstead is marginally quicker to Tower of London region compare with Heathrow Terminal 5? And notice how much quicker it is to drive from Stanstead to Canary Wharf? I am not saying you are wrong. But I would like to present real figures to people interested to see in order to make their own decisions.


At what time of day is this? Also given people are unlikely to go from Canary Wharf (their place of work) or Big Ben (tourist attraction) to the airport for a morning transatlantic flight, not sure how much this matters?
 
IdlewildJFK
Posts: 76
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Re: JetBlue Secures Slots For BOS-STN, JFK-LGW

Wed Nov 18, 2020 12:53 pm

RodFarva wrote:
tphuang wrote:
the problem is that LGW slots on initial allocation are not as abundant at this point as we thought. DY is pretending it will need more slots next summer than it requested in 2020, even though it probably won't last 2 or 3 more months. VS can keep holding on to its LGW slots despite closing its operations there due to the slot waivers. BA is unlikely to run much of an operation at LGW, but can keep holding on to its slots due to slot waivers. As long as LGW/LHR doesn't require the airlines use their slots, incumbent airlines can keep their slots.

If STN is more than a contingency plan for JetBlue, the route planners need to get their brains checked out. In this low demand TATL environment, it would be better for them to park the LRs or use them domestic transcon or LAX-HNL than run 2x on BOS-STN.

I have no issues with 1x on JFK-LGW for now. DY is going to go belly up. BA is unlikely to operate JFK-LGW for a while imo. So they won't have any competition to start off in a market that should have some high yield demand. They can add more flights as they receive more LRs in 2022.

If they can get the remedial slot on BOS-LHR, that's what they should operate. 2x BOS-LGW seem like too much capacity next summer.

What's your USP to market on a single daily BOS-LON rotation on an A321 when BA/AA offer higher frequency on wide bodied equipment?

You mean like AA operating 1x JFK-CDG on 767 against DL/AF with 5x larger wide bodies pre-pandemic and apparently performing quite well? What is this fascination with high frequency on TATL and wide body equipment? A321LR will have much fewer seats to fill and similar CASM to the widebodies. And most flights from NYC to Europe only have 1 flight in that 7 to 10 pm window. Unless you are one of the few who must fly out within an one hour window, I can assure you most people don't care whether the flight leaves at 7:30 or 9:30 pm.



You know what their delivery schedule is for next year as well as anybody does. They'll have a whopping 3 planes to operate these flights for all of next year. Presumably 2 flights a day since one plane will likely be a spare. So they'll probably run one flight each from BOS and JFK. I'm betting they'll be operating BOS-LHR and JFK-LGW up to 1x daily by the end of next summer. I think they have a really good shot of getting LHR remedy slots for BOS but JFK might be a stretch.


One spare for only two operational AC? That is a very low ratio. I’d say it will be closer to 10-12 operational AC before they would have a spare. The cost of a canceled flight won’t justify a brand new 321LR spare. Plus a brand new ETOPS AC should have a pretty good dispatch reliability.
 
airbazar
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Re: JetBlue Secures Slots For BOS-STN, JFK-LGW

Wed Nov 18, 2020 1:12 pm

santi319 wrote:
hiflyeras wrote:
alfa164 wrote:
Based on the slots they got, they will have two flights a day between BOS and STN - and I think a plethora of empty seats will prove to be a bigger liability than the occasional mechanical or weather delay.


But it’ll be great for the non-revs!

The amount of time and $ wasted going from STN to London is not really worth it..


The train from STN to London costs about same amount as from LHR and LGW. ,There really is no significant difference. LHR does have the Tube which is a few pounds cheaper but not by much. You can buy an advanced express train ticket STN-London for less than £10. A 1-way ride on the Tube from LHR is £6 and that's no express train.

RodFarva wrote:
You know what their delivery schedule is for next year as well as anybody does. They'll have a whopping 3 planes to operate these flights for all of next year. Presumably 2 flights a day since one plane will likely be a spare. So they'll probably run one flight each from BOS and JFK. I'm betting they'll be operating BOS-LHR and JFK-LGW up to 1x daily by the end of next summer. I think they have a really good shot of getting LHR remedy slots for BOS but JFK might be a stretch.


They don't need an LR to be a spare. Any Mint configured A321 will do as the occasional sub, albeit with fewer Mint seats. Primera was running longer flights with their aircraft than BOS/JFK-LON.
 
JoseSalazar
Posts: 576
Joined: Mon Oct 14, 2019 3:18 am

Re: JetBlue Secures Slots For BOS-STN, JFK-LGW

Wed Nov 18, 2020 1:40 pm

airbazar wrote:
santi319 wrote:
hiflyeras wrote:

But it’ll be great for the non-revs!

The amount of time and $ wasted going from STN to London is not really worth it..


The train from STN to London costs about same amount as from LHR and LGW. ,There really is no significant difference. LHR does have the Tube which is a few pounds cheaper but not by much. You can buy an advanced express train ticket STN-London for less than £10. A 1-way ride on the Tube from LHR is £6 and that's no express train.

RodFarva wrote:
You know what their delivery schedule is for next year as well as anybody does. They'll have a whopping 3 planes to operate these flights for all of next year. Presumably 2 flights a day since one plane will likely be a spare. So they'll probably run one flight each from BOS and JFK. I'm betting they'll be operating BOS-LHR and JFK-LGW up to 1x daily by the end of next summer. I think they have a really good shot of getting LHR remedy slots for BOS but JFK might be a stretch.


They don't need an LR to be a spare. Any Mint configured A321 will do as the occasional sub, albeit with fewer Mint seats. Primera was running longer flights with their aircraft than BOS/JFK-LON.

I don’t think B6’s regular mint NEOs will be ETOPS according to a discussion I heard about it. So I think they would be limited to their LRs for these routes. That said I don’t think they will keep an LR just sitting idle as a spare full time. It’ll be interesting to see what they end up doing.
 
B752OS
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Joined: Thu Dec 22, 2005 4:05 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Nov 18, 2020 1:48 pm

hbernal1 wrote:
Gee, that was a massive letdown. Oh well - 2021 predictions anyone?


2021 will be a slow climb out of the basement for everyone, so I'll make 2022 predictions.

JetBlue will add service Indianapolis and St. Louis.
They will beef up FLL-Western US service, FLL-LAX will be 6-7 daily, SFO will be 3-4 daily, SJC will be 1 daily, SEA will be 2 daily, SAN will be 2 daily, PDX will be 1 daily, PHX will be 2 daily, LAS will be 3 daily, SLC will be 2 daily, DEN will be 3 daily, SMF will be 1 daily (seasonal)
 
Nicknuzzii
Posts: 1992
Joined: Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:57 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Nov 18, 2020 1:54 pm

hbernal1 wrote:
Gee, that was a massive letdown. Oh well - 2021 predictions anyone?


More growth from EWR and LAX, mostly domestic. Try some new markets out of BOS trying to repair losses from the business markets that still don’t exist. New unique Caribbean routes from JFK.
 
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jfklganyc
Posts: 6573
Joined: Mon Jan 05, 2004 2:31 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Nov 18, 2020 2:01 pm

Lets start with something concrete: 3 new gates at EWR today.

That said, follow the trend lines for your predictions:

-More EWR
-More LAX
-Less BOS
-Smaller JFK
-More Florida to midwest
-More VFR Island
-Token London

With regards to BOS, a huge chunk of that hub was high frequency short haul. That wont be coming back anytime soon and there isnt enough flying elsewhere to make up for it.

Short and Medium term, I think JFK comes back faster than BOS
 
airbazar
Posts: 10526
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:12 pm

Re: JetBlue Secures Slots For BOS-STN, JFK-LGW

Wed Nov 18, 2020 2:10 pm

JoseSalazar wrote:
airbazar wrote:
santi319 wrote:
The amount of time and $ wasted going from STN to London is not really worth it..


The train from STN to London costs about same amount as from LHR and LGW. ,There really is no significant difference. LHR does have the Tube which is a few pounds cheaper but not by much. You can buy an advanced express train ticket STN-London for less than £10. A 1-way ride on the Tube from LHR is £6 and that's no express train.

RodFarva wrote:
You know what their delivery schedule is for next year as well as anybody does. They'll have a whopping 3 planes to operate these flights for all of next year. Presumably 2 flights a day since one plane will likely be a spare. So they'll probably run one flight each from BOS and JFK. I'm betting they'll be operating BOS-LHR and JFK-LGW up to 1x daily by the end of next summer. I think they have a really good shot of getting LHR remedy slots for BOS but JFK might be a stretch.


They don't need an LR to be a spare. Any Mint configured A321 will do as the occasional sub, albeit with fewer Mint seats. Primera was running longer flights with their aircraft than BOS/JFK-LON.

I don’t think B6’s regular mint NEOs will be ETOPS according to a discussion I heard about it. So I think they would be limited to their LRs for these routes. That said I don’t think they will keep an LR just sitting idle as a spare full time. It’ll be interesting to see what they end up doing.

All A320 family aircraft are ETOPS 180 certified out of the factory. It's the airline itself that needs to add an ETOPS program and be certified for it in addition to the aircraft already being ETOPS certified.
https://www.airbus.com/newsroom/press-r ... e-faa.html
I would be surprised if B6 only includes the LR's in their program. Nevertheless, you don't really need ETOPS to fly TATL. WOW operated many TATL routes and they were not ETOPS certified. ETOPS does help shorten the route.
 
Seat1D
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Re: JetBlue Secures Slots For BOS-STN, JFK-LGW

Wed Nov 18, 2020 2:20 pm

I think STN will work. We know that the 321LRs will have only 138 seats so not a lot of people per flight. #2. We know that B6 plans to seriously undercut the current LON - BOS/NYC business class fares. The way RH tells it, the business class fares will be so low that people will want to fly. So, if the MINT fares are that good, people will fly into and out of STN.
 
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flymco753
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Nov 18, 2020 2:21 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
-More Florida to midwest
Would this include MCO or is this along lines of RSW &TPA? I've predicted MCO-CLE/DTW/ORD would eventually be added and with leisure travel having recovered much quicker, it makes sense to check these off the list now and build awareness for the full recovery. Similarly to why WN re-entered and extended MSP, DTW and entered SLC-MCO.
 
dfw88
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Re: JetBlue Secures Slots For BOS-STN, JFK-LGW

Wed Nov 18, 2020 2:51 pm

chonetsao wrote:
dfw88 wrote:
Thank you for being a voice of reason here. The STN tech corridor theory is pretty outlandish. Surely, if there were companies with corporate contracts (as someone implied upthread) looking for TATL STN service someone (BA?) would have launched just such a service a few years ago, at the height of the latest air travel peak. Applying Occam's Razor to the situation give high probability to STN being a simple backup for not getting the slots they want. We'll see what happens when DY drops the LGW slots (should they go under). If B6 immediately drops STN for more LGW it will be pretty clear.


Have you considered that:
1, BA have a strong service in LHR and they said as much they want to build TATL around Heathrow?
2, Cambridge research and development was only become prominent in last 10 years?
3, A321XLR which can make the long thin route work is only available in last year or two?

If you consider the Stanstead theory outlandish, have you looked at the success of Austin in recent years while nobody believed BA would achieve any success as it is too close to DFW and IAH at the beginning? Have you looked at North Carolina triangle to see both CLT and RDU could support TATL service while RDU is so close to AA hub CLT? In your theory, airlines should just fly to DFW or IAH and be done with it and forget about Austin, and airline should concentrate on CLT instead of flying to RDU as well, after all, both station with their connection to IT and pharma is outlandish.

What I am saying is, there are recently success history on TATL routes involved with a upstarting research centres or newly emerged IT centres. I am not saying jetblue's BOS-STN would be next, but there are models (Austin, Raleigh/Durham) there for them to make a great case study.


There are a few problems with your reasoning here, the most obvious being the distances involved. STN is 22 miles from LHR. AUS is 140 miles to IAH and 190 miles to DFW while RDU is 130 miles to CLT. So no, I'm not saying that airlines should forget about AUS and RDU... because they're separate catchment areas at least a three hour drive from the nearest major intercontinental hub. Comparing STN and LHR to the previous examples doesn't make any sense. They're much further, which makes them having their own service make much more sense.

Also, while I know nothing about this Cambridge research area you're talking about, saying that it's become prominent in the last 10 years makes it even more surprising that no one gave this a serious try in the last two years. If no one tried it then it's because the numbers didn't make sense. They likely still don't, especially given that B6 is an unknown quantity in the UK.

Don't get me wrong: I'd love for B6 to do well on TATL routes. It's entirely possible that they strike gold at STN, I just consider the probability too small to justify the risk. I find it far more likely that they dump STN as soon as DY gets rid of some LGW slots.
 
CALMSP
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Re: JetBlue Secures Slots For BOS-STN, JFK-LGW

Wed Nov 18, 2020 3:32 pm

Boeing74741R wrote:
To all those wondering why not LHR. It’s been mentioned that LHR slots (if there are any going spare) are expensive, so if you’re new to a market it makes sense to keep costs low which means going to a cheaper airport, especially if one of the selling points is going to be on the basis of being cheaper than the competition.

If the flights are successful and JetBlue gain a foothold in the market, a LHR operation could be justified in the future.

As for splitting ops between STN and LGW, it’s either all they could get or they see something nobody else has. Time will tell!

For now, there’s just the small matter of reopening the border to worry about first. If the US border remains closed well into 2021, I expect there to be virtually no demand irrespective of London airport.


wasn't it mentioned somewhere else they first went for LHR and did not get the slots? That in itself shows that B6 knows the London market is LHR.
 
chonetsao
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Re: JetBlue Secures Slots For BOS-STN, JFK-LGW

Wed Nov 18, 2020 3:55 pm

RvA wrote:
chonetsao wrote:
santi319 wrote:
The amount of time and $ wasted going from STN to London is not really worth it..


You really need to define where in London you are talking about. Using two landmarks and one district as example:

1, Big Ben
London Stanstead to Big Ben
Drive: 64 minutes and 39 miles
Public Transportation: 63 minutes

Heathrow Terminal 3 to Big Ben
Drive: 51 or 63 minutes in 17.3 - 19.7 miles
Public Transportation: 50 or 63 minutes (50 minutes with Heathrow Express and 63 with underground)

Heathrow Terminal 5 to Big Ben
Drive: 55 or 62 minutes
Public Transportation: 55 or 62 minutes (55 minutes with Heathrow Express and 62 with underground)

2, Tower of London
London Stanstead to Tower of London
Drive: 53 minutes and 36.5 miles
Public Transportation: 67 minutes

Heathrow Terminal 3 to Tower of London:
Drive: 64 minutes in 19.7 miles
Public Transportation: 72 minutes to 84 minutes (72 minutes with Heathrow Express and 84 minutes with underground)

Heathrow Terminal 5 to Tower of London
Drive: 65 or 81 minutes in 22.6 -30 miles
Public Transportation: 68 or 75 minutes (no difference whether you take Heathrow Express or not)

3, Canary Wharf, the London financial hub
London Stanstead to Canary Wharf:
Drive: 41 minutes in 34.4 miles
Public Transportation: 74 minutes

Heathrow Terminal 3 to Canary Wharf
Drive: 73 minutes in 22.5 miles
Public Transportation: 75 minutes

Heathrow Terminal 5 to Canary Wharf
Drive: 74 minutes in 25.3 miles
Public Transportation: 69 minutes or 79 minutes (69 minutes using Heathrow Express)

Above figure all from Google Maps direction as of today. Google estimate 7 minutes walk from London Heathrow Terminal 3 to the underground station thus times are similar or longer compare to Heathrow Terminal 5 when using public transportation.

Notice how similar the time spend to London Stanstead is marginally quicker to Tower of London region compare with Heathrow Terminal 5? And notice how much quicker it is to drive from Stanstead to Canary Wharf? I am not saying you are wrong. But I would like to present real figures to people interested to see in order to make their own decisions.


At what time of day is this? Also given people are unlikely to go from Canary Wharf (their place of work) or Big Ben (tourist attraction) to the airport for a morning transatlantic flight, not sure how much this matters?


To answer your question, it was taken around 9am. You are welcome to check other times. Even if you do not care about driving time, take a look at public transportation option, those duration time does not change as public transportation run on schedule.

People DO get to Canary Wharf to work after a morning transatlantic flight either by choice or design. Might be a minority but banking industry is known to be tough on working schedules. You get a meeting, you go for a meeting, no ifs no buts.

Big Ben and Tower of London are the two famous landmarks in London, one is considered as central of London (Westminster London), and one is considered in or near the City of London (please kindly research on the terms so that you could understand if you do not already). The purpose to use these two landmarks is to illustrate why Stanstead is not vastly in disadvantage in travelling time to London. As readers and you may appreciate London is huge, you need to define where in London (more precisely Greater London) in order to get a picture on how long the transportation needs. You can call Whitechapel in London, you can also call Wembley in London, it is very unfair to argue Heathrow is more convenient for London without agree on where you consider as your start point or region. If you mean Westminster as London, then fine, we use Big Ben as landmark. If you want to mean City of London as London, then Tower of London or London bridge is a good choice. But if you want to define Chelsea or Shepherds Bush as London, I am afraid that is in Greater London and should not be used as example.

It certainly matters in the sake of argument as people from different part find different airport more convenient. There is no point to make a statement that Heathrow is more convenient unless we establish a common ground that which part of London you want to define. As the travel time to 3 most well known London landmarks have shown, there is no definite answer on which airport is more convenient. Stanstead remains to be one of the top O&D airports in UK for a reason.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Nov 18, 2020 3:56 pm

TPG article from interview with JG.
https://thepointsguy.com/news/jetblue-a ... ook-ahead/
- JetBlue will provide free COVID testing for any traveler in JFK T-5. Walk in testing available for results in up to 48 hours. Given its compliance with NY's updated quarantine mandates, maybe this will help them with demand.
- No airport has been decided for London (so no confirmation on STN/LGW). Start time has been pushed to back back half of 2021. If they are going to push it that far back, then they might miss the summer season altogether. I'm assuming they are just still waiting on LHR
- Again, they like having a legacy partner in AA.
- more out-of-the-box route additions are likely where JetBlue sees “customer demand” in 2021

For midwest to Florida, I wonder if they can use JFK as their Florida/Caribbean hub. Sure, it's not conveniently located, but there is a lot of O&D. It won't be that different from AA using PHL for connection to Florida. They are going to add some more short haul stuff out of JFK to replace AA's regional flying and not a lot of TATL flights to connect to for a while. Doing stuff like CLE/PIT/DTW/ORD-JFK-Florida/Caribbeans isn't crazy.

Maybe they can finally add a couple of new midwest markets like IND/CMH/STL.

EWR - I can see more Florida flights than pre-pandemic as demand comes back. Some other markets they can add are RDU/MSY/BNA/BUF/KIN/BDA/SAV. They can even try stuff like ORD and DEN if EWR performances continue to match what they see out of JFK.
 
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klm617
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Re: JetBlue Secures Slots For BOS-STN, JFK-LGW

Wed Nov 18, 2020 4:00 pm

Seat1D wrote:
I think STN will work. We know that the 321LRs will have only 138 seats so not a lot of people per flight. #2. We know that B6 plans to seriously undercut the current LON - BOS/NYC business class fares. The way RH tells it, the business class fares will be so low that people will want to fly. So, if the MINT fares are that good, people will fly into and out of STN.


How is that a recipe for success. Operating a flight and basically giving away seat doesn't seem like a positive approach to me. What is the O/D market from Boston to Stansted if there is any at all.
 
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klm617
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Re: JetBlue Secures Slots For BOS-STN, JFK-LGW

Wed Nov 18, 2020 4:04 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
I have refrained comment to chew on this for 24 hours.

This is pathetic if it is true.

I am on board with Jfk to Gatwick… But one daily; they are just wasting their time. What is particularly absurd is the fact that there are plenty of slots sitting around with the demise of Norwegian.

Stanstead from Boston is a joke. This is like the early days when serving Ontario was supposed to serve LA. This is almost beneath the stature of an airline like Jetblue.

Frankly, for an airline that was shooting for Heathrow, I don’t know what happened. But something changed



They would have more success flying CLE-LGW with their A321 than any of the suggested routes from JFK and BOS
 
chonetsao
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Re: JetBlue Secures Slots For BOS-STN, JFK-LGW

Wed Nov 18, 2020 4:17 pm

dfw88 wrote:
There are a few problems with your reasoning here, the most obvious being the distances involved. STN is 22 miles from LHR. AUS is 140 miles to IAH and 190 miles to DFW while RDU is 130 miles to CLT. So no, I'm not saying that airlines should forget about AUS and RDU... because they're separate catchment areas at least a three hour drive from the nearest major intercontinental hub. Comparing STN and LHR to the previous examples doesn't make any sense. They're much further, which makes them having their own service make much more sense.

Also, while I know nothing about this Cambridge research area you're talking about, saying that it's become prominent in the last 10 years makes it even more surprising that no one gave this a serious try in the last two years. If no one tried it then it's because the numbers didn't make sense. They likely still don't, especially given that B6 is an unknown quantity in the UK.

Don't get me wrong: I'd love for B6 to do well on TATL routes. It's entirely possible that they strike gold at STN, I just consider the probability too small to justify the risk. I find it far more likely that they dump STN as soon as DY gets rid of some LGW slots.


Do you realise LHR and STN is 62 miles via M25? Cambridge Research Park is over 90 miles to Heathrow Airport central terminals? If it is 22 miles between STN and LHR I don't think there is a case at all. JetBlue should fly all its flights to STN if there is only 22 miles. But serious yes it might be nothing compare to 160 miles in the case of RDU and AUS. But let us consider if you are US researcher working in Cambridge, would you rather get from terminal to company or apartment in 20 miles or 90 miles. If you do not know, from Heathrow to Cambridge via M25, you will get stuck in the junction between M4 to M40 for 35 minutes daily due to traffic (yes I drove on that road multi times a year and there is not a single day in normal times there was not a traffic jam).

As I tried to explain to you, the legacies are happy with LHR. And passengers heading to that direction are happy with LHR. Legacies are not going to try STN for its niche market characteristics. The niche market also requires a full service airlines in this route to the exposable income of the market. Now we have Jetblue finally willing to give it a try. Good on them.

But I do hope people would accept that there are things they do not know, or never heard of. Because clearly, if I did not tell you the existence of a large multi billion dollar research industry in Cambridge which is also connected to Boston academy circle, you would continue question the wisdom of the Jetblue route planner and thought they throw a dart on the map.

jetblue is not legacy airlines, Jetblue does not have widebody long haul aircrafts. It needs a niche market to open up viable long thin routes that have a demography that could support a premium full service route. They successfully identified a link that could potentially work for them. There is no guarantee they will make the route viable. But the potential is there. The beauty about this route is precisely nobody else tried and nobody else can. Legacies do not have the perfect aircraft yet, LCCs do not have the correct premium product, other average airlines do not have the hub advantage and brand advantage of Jetblue in BOS. The more you think about, the more it is likely that this route is designed for jetblue. The only way this route can get canned would be a legacy decide to join the party by fly a B767 or B787. I see Jetblue has potential to achieve more than its JFK-LGW route. I can only wish all the best lucky to jetblue and hopefully it can prove doubters wrong.
 
VS11
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Re: JetBlue Secures Slots For BOS-STN, JFK-LGW

Wed Nov 18, 2020 4:26 pm

CALMSP wrote:

wasn't it mentioned somewhere else they first went for LHR and did not get the slots? That in itself shows that B6 knows the London market is LHR.


jetBlue CEO Robin Hayes came from British Airways where he was an Executive Vice President of the Americas. So yes, jetBlue is intimately familiar with the London TATL market.
 
VS11
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Re: JetBlue Secures Slots For BOS-STN, JFK-LGW

Wed Nov 18, 2020 4:37 pm

chonetsao wrote:
But I do hope people would accept that there are things they do not know, or never heard of. Because clearly, if I did not tell you the existence of a large multi billion dollar research industry in Cambridge which is also connected to Boston academy circle, you would continue question the wisdom of the Jetblue route planner and thought they throw a dart on the map.

jetblue is not legacy airlines, Jetblue does not have widebody long haul aircrafts. It needs a niche market to open up viable long thin routes that have a demography that could support a premium full service route. They successfully identified a link that could potentially work for them. There is no guarantee they will make the route viable. But the potential is there. The beauty about this route is precisely nobody else tried and nobody else can. Legacies do not have the perfect aircraft yet, LCCs do not have the correct premium product, other average airlines do not have the hub advantage and brand advantage of Jetblue in BOS. The more you think about, the more it is likely that this route is designed for jetblue. The only way this route can get canned would be a legacy decide to join the party by fly a B767 or B787. I see Jetblue has potential to achieve more than its JFK-LGW route. I can only wish all the best lucky to jetblue and hopefully it can prove doubters wrong.


To keep things into perspective, jetBlue has not announced any London flights yet. All we know is that they have been awarded slots to STN and LGW. Everything else is guesswork at this point. This is not to discount your points but we simply do not have much else to go by.
 
catiii
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Re: JetBlue Secures Slots For BOS-STN, JFK-LGW

Wed Nov 18, 2020 4:38 pm

I wouldn't read too much into any of this. The slot conference is this week which is where they'll attempt to acquire LHR or LGW slots. My sense is that these slot applications are Plan B.
 
chonetsao
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Re: JetBlue Secures Slots For BOS-STN, JFK-LGW

Wed Nov 18, 2020 5:49 pm

VS11 wrote:
To keep things into perspective, jetBlue has not announced any London flights yet. All we know is that they have been awarded slots to STN and LGW. Everything else is guesswork at this point. This is not to discount your points but we simply do not have much else to go by.


yes agree with you on this one. Hopefully it will be confirmed soon.
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: JetBlue Secures Slots For BOS-STN, JFK-LGW

Wed Nov 18, 2020 5:56 pm

catiii wrote:
I wouldn't read too much into any of this. The slot conference is this week which is where they'll attempt to acquire LHR or LGW slots. My sense is that these slot applications are Plan B.



That is what I am hoping. This seems way off
 
B752OS
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Re: JetBlue Secures Slots For BOS-STN, JFK-LGW

Wed Nov 18, 2020 6:21 pm

JetBlue let it be known they are adding service to London in 2021 back in April 2019. Heck, their FAs even tout the new service when pitching their credit card while making announcements during flights. They don't want to look kind of foolish by not following through, so they went ahead and secured service to London as a backup to cover themselves if they are unable to secure slots to LHR and/or LGW.
 
Abeam79
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Re: JetBlue Secures Slots For BOS-STN, JFK-LGW

Wed Nov 18, 2020 6:23 pm

chonetsao wrote:
VS11 wrote:
To keep things into perspective, jetBlue has not announced any London flights yet. All we know is that they have been awarded slots to STN and LGW. Everything else is guesswork at this point. This is not to discount your points but we simply do not have much else to go by.


yes agree with you on this one. Hopefully it will be confirmed soon.


This confirms that speculation thats its more about LHR, LGW/STN are more backup and part of a comprehensive LON market strategy. https://thepointsguy.com/news/jetblue-s ... -pandemic/
 
AC4500
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Re: JetBlue Secures Slots For BOS-STN, JFK-LGW

Wed Nov 18, 2020 6:40 pm

jfklganyc wrote:

This is pathetic if it is true.

I am on board with Jfk to Gatwick… But one daily; they are just wasting their time.

:checkmark: :checkmark: Absolutely.

1x daily to Gatwick will never make a profit, not to mention that Stansted will probably just be a money dumpster fire as well. At the start of the IATA Summer 2021 schedule (last week of March). Norwegian is at 3x Daily to Gatwick, and BA is at 1x daily. It's very unlikely that this schedule will stick around for S21 for either of the two airlines, but the competitors will still have the upper hand in terms of customer base. JetBlue's A321LR product is clearly meant to cater to business traffic, and these allocated routes aren't going to attract the customers that JetBlue needs in order for these flights to succeed.

The only way that JetBlue will be able to attract customers will be to sell at Norwegian-like fares, which isn't going to turn a profit even in a non-pandemic environment. The only customers that they will be able to attract are die-hard JetBlue fans, and they're going to need a lot more than just that for these flights to succeed.
 
AC4500
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Re: JetBlue Secures Slots For BOS-STN, JFK-LGW

Wed Nov 18, 2020 6:42 pm

Abeam79 wrote:
chonetsao wrote:
VS11 wrote:
To keep things into perspective, jetBlue has not announced any London flights yet. All we know is that they have been awarded slots to STN and LGW. Everything else is guesswork at this point. This is not to discount your points but we simply do not have much else to go by.


yes agree with you on this one. Hopefully it will be confirmed soon.


This confirms that speculation thats its more about LHR, LGW/STN are more backup and part of a comprehensive LON market strategy. https://thepointsguy.com/news/jetblue-s ... -pandemic/

That article was published on October 1st. At that point, JetBlue probably had no idea that all of their requested Heathrow slots were going to get declined.
 
RodFarva
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Re: JetBlue Secures Slots For BOS-STN, JFK-LGW

Wed Nov 18, 2020 6:43 pm

airbazar wrote:
JoseSalazar wrote:
airbazar wrote:

The train from STN to London costs about same amount as from LHR and LGW. ,There really is no significant difference. LHR does have the Tube which is a few pounds cheaper but not by much. You can buy an advanced express train ticket STN-London for less than £10. A 1-way ride on the Tube from LHR is £6 and that's no express train.



They don't need an LR to be a spare. Any Mint configured A321 will do as the occasional sub, albeit with fewer Mint seats. Primera was running longer flights with their aircraft than BOS/JFK-LON.

I don’t think B6’s regular mint NEOs will be ETOPS according to a discussion I heard about it. So I think they would be limited to their LRs for these routes. That said I don’t think they will keep an LR just sitting idle as a spare full time. It’ll be interesting to see what they end up doing.

All A320 family aircraft are ETOPS 180 certified out of the factory. It's the airline itself that needs to add an ETOPS program and be certified for it in addition to the aircraft already being ETOPS certified.
https://www.airbus.com/newsroom/press-r ... e-faa.html
I would be surprised if B6 only includes the LR's in their program. Nevertheless, you don't really need ETOPS to fly TATL. WOW operated many TATL routes and they were not ETOPS certified. ETOPS does help shorten the route.


This says they can be delivered from the factory ETOPS 180 equipped. That's a long ways away from every aircraft they build is properly equipped and delivered. I'm not an airbus know-all, but I would think that it's an option to get the aircraft delivered ETOPS 180 equipped. As in, the customer has to pay extra. None of JetBlue's aircraft that have been delivered even recently are ETOPS equipped to my knowledge. From what I have heard, not even the mint configured neo (not LR) that will be arriving fairly soon is going to be ETOPS equipped, which I think is dumb because as you said, it can be subbed for some TATL flying and it could be used for Hawaii if they choose to start service.
 
NYC-air
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Re: JetBlue Secures Slots For BOS-STN, JFK-LGW

Wed Nov 18, 2020 6:50 pm

Anyone think they might eventually try London-FLL? The A321XLRs seem to have the range.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Secures Slots For BOS-STN, JFK-LGW

Wed Nov 18, 2020 6:52 pm

AC4500 wrote:
1x daily to Gatwick will never make a profit, not to mention that Stansted will probably just be a money dumpster fire as well. At the start of the IATA Summer 2021 schedule (last week of March). Norwegian is at 3x Daily to Gatwick, and BA is at 1x daily. It's very unlikely that this schedule will stick around for S21 for either of the two airlines, but the competitors will still have the upper hand in terms of customer base. JetBlue's A321LR product is clearly meant to cater to business traffic, and these allocated routes aren't going to attract the customers that JetBlue needs in order for these flights to succeed.

The only way that JetBlue will be able to attract customers will be to sell at Norwegian-like fares, which isn't going to turn a profit even in a non-pandemic environment. The only customers that they will be able to attract are die-hard JetBlue fans, and they're going to need a lot more than just that for these flights to succeed.


So you are agreeing that DY and BA's current schedule will not stick around for S21, but they will somehow still have the upper hand? Do you mean by the DY that just filed bankruptcy today and reduced their operation down to domestic only? If anything, JetBlue will probably have more success on JFK-LGW on a limited schedule than on JFK-LHR, since there is no competition.

Having more flights on larger planes just means you have to sell more seats. The beauty of A321LR is that it has comparable all-in CASM to A330 and B787 despite having much fewer seats.

The sooner people recognize this the better. Smaller planes that have similar CASM to larger planes will eventually drive the larger planes out of routes they formerly flourish in. That's what happened in domestic transcon market and west coast to Hawaii.

AC4500 wrote:
That article was published on October 1st. At that point, JetBlue probably had no idea that all of their requested Heathrow slots were going to get declined.


this is from today
https://thepointsguy.com/news/jetblue-a ... ook-ahead/
What London airport JetBlue will serve was another topic Geraghty was mum on — except to say that flights will begin in the “back back half” of 2021.

We are still going to have to wait to find out when they will start and where.
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: JetBlue Secures Slots For BOS-STN, JFK-LGW

Wed Nov 18, 2020 6:55 pm

Ill say it: DY wont be crossing the pond in 2021

Why are we pretending they will? Because they are pretending they will?

We know better
 
SurfandSnow
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Re: JetBlue Secures Slots For BOS-STN, JFK-LGW

Wed Nov 18, 2020 6:58 pm

B752OS wrote:
JetBlue let it be known they are adding service to London in 2021 back in April 2019. Heck, their FAs even tout the new service when pitching their credit card while making announcements during flights. They don't want to look kind of foolish by not following through, so they went ahead and secured service to London as a backup to cover themselves if they are unable to secure slots to LHR and/or LGW.


Exactly! We are talking about an airline that initially established itself in the Greater Los Angeles market with service to ONT (an airport way out in the suburbs that tends to be a long way from major businesses and tourist attractions) and LGB (a chronically low yielding secondary airport that no airline has ever been able to serve successfully). B6 initially served the San Francisco Bay Area via OAK - admittedly much more palatable to travelers than distant ONT or the LGB trailer park, but still not SFO. South Florida is still served exclusively via FLL and PBI rather than MIA. Houston service just recently switched over to the much preferred IAH from HOU. B6 isn't afraid to start off at distant alternates like STN - surely LHR is as much their end goal as LAX and SFO were!

If B6 has to start London with something awful like a split operation between LGW and STN, it wouldn't be much different than their initial foray into the Los Angeles area 20 years ago. The airline had such loyal fans in New York that its FFers didn't mind landing at alternates such as BUR, LGB and OAK for years. B6 FFers may not mind arriving at STN and figuring out how to reach downtown London or connect onwards to other destinations, at least initially. If B6 pax figured out how to get to places like Santa Monica from BUR/LGB/ONT, STN shouldn't be too much trouble.

Remember that it was only last month that B6 finally abandoned LGB, and earlier this year that they fully withdrew from OAK. Along similar lines, it might be 10 or 20 years before B6 is able to serve LHR in a way that they may want to (see LAX and SFO today, both now hosting services that were never going to work from alternate airports). It's just never easy to gain viable facilities access when it comes to airports like LAX, LHR and SFO with such high barriers to entry. STN seems like a good backup strategy (likely only temporary) for B6 if even LGW slots prove to be too difficult to obtain.
 
mattyfitzg
Posts: 276
Joined: Sun Sep 04, 2016 4:50 pm

Re: JetBlue Secures Slots For BOS-STN, JFK-LGW

Wed Nov 18, 2020 7:34 pm

As mentioned above, Primera operated STN-BOS on A21N's, they always operated with high loads and had Premium seats block booked by a Cambridge based pharmaceutical company. Whether it was profitable or not is a different matter.

Primera, when they started, were completely unknown at both ends of the route.

JetBlue on the other hand, are obviously a household name at one end, and relatively unknown at the other end.

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