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Brickell305
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Re: JetBlue Secures Slots For BOS-STN, JFK-LGW

Sat Nov 21, 2020 1:54 am

catiii wrote:
They're not going to STN. They said as much in an all hands yesterday. This whole thread is overblown.

Didn’t they hear about all the tech travel that would fall into their lap?
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Nov 21, 2020 2:03 am

eagles94 wrote:
Who on earth would be flying BFS, BHX or EDI to MIA or vice-versa, while it looks good on paper, realistically, these flights would not attract the volume of people it would need, MIA is a premium leisure market, these kind of airports just wouldn't provide the necessary traffic, so it's unsurprising that there's no carriers already operating these, and anybody who did attempt it would be accused of "throwing darts at a map".
MAN-MIA perhaps, but TCX tried it and dropped it.

MCO routes might hold together better, feeding traffic into WDW.


Of course each individual market is small. As a whole, non-London UK to Florida is not a small market. Similarly, secondary UK to Caribbean as a whole is not a small market, but individual markets are small. So it's likely that if B6 does offer service to places like MAN, EDI and BHX in the future, some of that will rely on connection to Florida and Caribbean. Especially during winter and early spring.

DL makes a lot of their south america flight out of ATL work by capturing a slice of each small markets from elsewhere to those south american markets. B6 obviously doesn't have anywhere near that amount of connection, but JFK is a much larger local market to places like MAN, EDI and BHX. It also helps that they only need to fill 138 seats vs twice that number on a widebody.

They need to decide whether to make JFK or BOS their primary TATL hub. BOS was the answer pre-COVID due to JFK constraint. But given their partnership with AA, they will be able to connect their non-TATL stuff to AA international and also have more slots to provide feed to their future long haul flights. All of this along with new terminal makes JFK more attractive. BOS provides more domestic connections. JFK provides more leisure connection.
 
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VS4ever
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Re: JetBlue Secures Slots For BOS-STN, JFK-LGW

Sat Nov 21, 2020 2:23 am

This doesn’t half make me chuckle with all the rhetoric posted in this thread.
1. Is STN the be all and end all of London travel -No
2. Is STN better than it used to be - Yes
3. If you are placed North of London and have the ability to easily get over to the M11 and avoid the nightmare of the M25 would Stansted be a decent option. Yes
4. Anybody check the long term frequency of VS from BOS-LHR? Yep only recently did they try to go twice daily and yes I know DL flew daily too. But to say once daily out of Boston won’t work is ridiculous. JFK is a different issue, but you have to start somewhere. If you forget the fares for a minute. DY flew a ton of people across the pond sometimes less than daily.... it’s possible to attract enough people even with that schedule (again fares aside)
5. What you rather do, have B6 fly 6 daily from JFK pour a ton of immediate resources at it with planes it won’t have straight away, or test the waters build up gradually but In a reasonable time frame? I’m guessing most of those who think it will just fail.
6. B6 is doing this BECAUSE their JFK and BOS customers have asked for it, those clients are their bread and butter. Do you really think they are going to try this as a vanity project? Dear goodness you need your heads checked. B6 are not faultless by a long shot, but to think they would invest all this time and money on a whim as a public company, sure you keep telling yourselves that.
7 and finally is STN the endgame, no, they really want LHR, but as someone pointed out in a previous post. Primera as bad as they were proved there was at least some kind of a market for BOS-STN and B6 has a MUCH better name in the US plus the connections. The UK is a little different of course, but as I said you have to start somewhere.

For goodness why don’t we at least give them a chance before we doom them to outright failure.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Secures Slots For BOS-STN, JFK-LGW

Sat Nov 21, 2020 2:45 am

There is nothing wrong the possibility of them trying STN down the road. They fly to ONT/BUR as well as LAX. It's just a lot safer for them to start off with LHR. If they can't get any/enough slots at LHR, then they need to also open an operation at LGW. If initial foray into LHR and/or LGW is successful, they can look to add STN down the line.

If there are enough LHR slots up for sale or lease, the price of buying slots will obviously come down. I don't expect $50 to 75 million be paid for a slot pair anytime soon. JetBlue can make their own decision on how much LHR slots are worth to them. They have also JFK slots that they can trade.
 
JoseSalazar
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Re: JetBlue Secures Slots For BOS-STN, JFK-LGW

Sat Nov 21, 2020 3:02 am

jfk777 wrote:
NYC-air wrote:
peterinlisbon wrote:

London is London. At the other end, Boston has connections on Jetblue to all over the USA.


The is obviously a very good point! Connecting at the USA mega-hubs on the majors can be a real hassle. Jetblue can offer a more intimate experience. T5 at JFK is compact and has its own customs hall. Same goes for their operation at Boston terminal C, which is conveniently right next to and just a short stroll from the customs hall in terminal D.

I rather like, for example, connecting in DUB on Aer Lingus versus the European megahubs like LHR and CDG. Aer Lingus does a lot of business off people like me. Same idea.


Don't JB international flights arriving at JFK use the Terminal 4 customs ? JB is going to have their own FIS when they build an addition on what is the current T7 site( BA terminal).

T5 has customs. Late arriving flights have to go to T4 when T5 customs is closed.
 
Seat1D
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Re: JetBlue Secures Slots For BOS-STN, JFK-LGW

Sat Nov 21, 2020 4:13 am

I'll bet my next paycheck that once London and all else that matters in Europe has matured for JetBlue, depending on COVID recovery, but I'm guessing 5 to 7 years down the road, B6 will set there sights on Japan and Korea. Business class fares to Japan are ridiculous. Whether it be with a 787 or a 330, I see Japan in Jetblues future. Who knows, maybe in 7 years there will be a narrow body that can make the journey. But Japan will most definitely happen. Those business class fares are ridiculous.
 
hbernal1
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Re: JetBlue Secures Slots For BOS-STN, JFK-LGW

Sat Nov 21, 2020 7:56 am

Seat1D wrote:
I'll bet my next paycheck that once London and all else that matters in Europe has matured for JetBlue, depending on COVID recovery, but I'm guessing 5 to 7 years down the road, B6 will set there sights on Japan and Korea. Business class fares to Japan are ridiculous. Whether it be with a 787 or a 330, I see Japan in Jetblues future. Who knows, maybe in 7 years there will be a narrow body that can make the journey. But Japan will most definitely happen. Those business class fares are ridiculous.

To cross the Pacific, B6 would probably need first to have a hub about as big as they do at BOS or JFK for connecting traffic - LAX is the only West Coast focus city and there's zero chance it grows to be anything resembling the scale of their BOS/JFK operations. There's also another problem: LAX is great for O&D to Asia, but geographically, it's not great for connections, which is why UA has such an advantage with SFO. This is without considering that widebodies would be required, no ifs, ands, or buts about it and well - so B6 would also have to take on the costs of operating A330s. Not optimal.

I think it's better for B6 to expand further into South America than to cross the Pacific. With the A321XLR, EZE/GIG/GRU/SCL will all be possibilities from FLL and give B6 a decent cost advantage to serve these markets with lower fares and still be profitable.
 
CobaltScar
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Re: JetBlue Secures Slots For BOS-STN, JFK-LGW

Sat Nov 21, 2020 2:17 pm

Seat1D wrote:
I'll bet my next paycheck that once London and all else that matters in Europe has matured for JetBlue, depending on COVID recovery, but I'm guessing 5 to 7 years down the road, B6 will set there sights on Japan and Korea. Business class fares to Japan are ridiculous. Whether it be with a 787 or a 330, I see Japan in Jetblues future. Who knows, maybe in 7 years there will be a narrow body that can make the journey. But Japan will most definitely happen. Those business class fares are ridiculous.



They will, but would require a merge with Alaska first. 2021 will be the set up for the next round of mergers for the airlines.
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: JetBlue Secures Slots For BOS-STN, JFK-LGW

Sat Nov 21, 2020 3:19 pm

NYC-air wrote:
peterinlisbon wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
Does anyone really see BOS-STN working?


London is London. At the other end, Boston has connections on Jetblue to all over the USA.


The is obviously a very good point! Connecting at the USA mega-hubs on the majors can be a real hassle. Jetblue can offer a more intimate experience. T5 at JFK is compact and has its own customs hall. Same goes for their operation at Boston terminal C, which is conveniently right next to and just a short stroll from the customs hall in terminal D.

I rather like, for example, connecting in DUB on Aer Lingus versus the European megahubs like LHR and CDG. Aer Lingus does a lot of business off people like me. Same idea.



Yeah I love the comparisons to Max Jet and EOS

jetblue is a major airline. They can fill a plane just about anywhere out of New York and Boston. Even though I think this plan is stupid, they are going to be just fine putting butts in the seat at fares that are descent. Stop comparing them to no name airlines that had a handful of planes and a dream

The major hubs they run on the US end help
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: JetBlue Secures Slots For BOS-STN, JFK-LGW

Sat Nov 21, 2020 3:24 pm

JoseSalazar wrote:
jfk777 wrote:
NYC-air wrote:

The is obviously a very good point! Connecting at the USA mega-hubs on the majors can be a real hassle. Jetblue can offer a more intimate experience. T5 at JFK is compact and has its own customs hall. Same goes for their operation at Boston terminal C, which is conveniently right next to and just a short stroll from the customs hall in terminal D.

I rather like, for example, connecting in DUB on Aer Lingus versus the European megahubs like LHR and CDG. Aer Lingus does a lot of business off people like me. Same idea.


Don't JB international flights arriving at JFK use the Terminal 4 customs ? JB is going to have their own FIS when they build an addition on what is the current T7 site( BA terminal).

T5 has customs. Late arriving flights have to go to T4 when T5 customs is closed.


Past 1030pm
 
User001
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Nov 21, 2020 3:44 pm

I see non-stop from MAN-BGI, but none to CUN, MBJ or PUJ or AUA.


TUI operates non stops on MAN-BGI/POP/CUN/MBJ/PVR/UVF and VRA.

Charters they may be, but its still taking potential pax that could have flown scheduled routings.
 
RvA
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Re: JetBlue Secures Slots For BOS-STN, JFK-LGW

Sat Nov 21, 2020 4:06 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
NYC-air wrote:
peterinlisbon wrote:

London is London. At the other end, Boston has connections on Jetblue to all over the USA.


The is obviously a very good point! Connecting at the USA mega-hubs on the majors can be a real hassle. Jetblue can offer a more intimate experience. T5 at JFK is compact and has its own customs hall. Same goes for their operation at Boston terminal C, which is conveniently right next to and just a short stroll from the customs hall in terminal D.

I rather like, for example, connecting in DUB on Aer Lingus versus the European megahubs like LHR and CDG. Aer Lingus does a lot of business off people like me. Same idea.



Yeah I love the comparisons to Max Jet and EOS

jetblue is a major airline. They can fill a plane just about anywhere out of New York and Boston. Even though I think this plan is stupid, they are going to be just fine putting butts in the seat at fares that are descent. Stop comparing them to no name airlines that had a handful of planes and a dream

The major hubs they run on the US end help


Inclined to agree that having the hubs on the US side will of course help. The question is if it will be enough. AA had significant troubles filling a second CDG flight from JFK and cut down from 3 to 1 flight to MAN. BHX also failed. And this is before JFK got cut back, but even still ORD-MAN struggled too and the ORD hub is a good bit bigger than anything JetBlue has I think? UA also had (757) flights out of EWR to Europe that are no longer around.
As I said before, I hope they manage to make it work but I would definitely not see it as a given.
 
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flyingclrs727
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Re: JetBlue Secures Slots For BOS-STN, JFK-LGW

Sat Nov 21, 2020 4:08 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
NYC-air wrote:
peterinlisbon wrote:

London is London. At the other end, Boston has connections on Jetblue to all over the USA.


The is obviously a very good point! Connecting at the USA mega-hubs on the majors can be a real hassle. Jetblue can offer a more intimate experience. T5 at JFK is compact and has its own customs hall. Same goes for their operation at Boston terminal C, which is conveniently right next to and just a short stroll from the customs hall in terminal D.

I rather like, for example, connecting in DUB on Aer Lingus versus the European megahubs like LHR and CDG. Aer Lingus does a lot of business off people like me. Same idea.



Yeah I love the comparisons to Max Jet and EOS

jetblue is a major airline. They can fill a plane just about anywhere out of New York and Boston. Even though I think this plan is stupid, they are going to be just fine putting butts in the seat at fares that are descent. Stop comparing them to no name airlines that had a handful of planes and a dream

The major hubs they run on the US end help


Plus EOS and Max Jet were all business class transatlantic but with no network of connections on either end. JetBlue offers flights to quite a few cities around the US, mostly on the east and west coasts.
 
StinkyPinky
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Nov 21, 2020 6:15 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
Major schedule cuts coming this weekend for “cash preservation”


Any info or details of what to expect with these cuts?
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: JetBlue Secures Slots For BOS-STN, JFK-LGW

Sat Nov 21, 2020 8:25 pm

RvA wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:
NYC-air wrote:

The is obviously a very good point! Connecting at the USA mega-hubs on the majors can be a real hassle. Jetblue can offer a more intimate experience. T5 at JFK is compact and has its own customs hall. Same goes for their operation at Boston terminal C, which is conveniently right next to and just a short stroll from the customs hall in terminal D.

I rather like, for example, connecting in DUB on Aer Lingus versus the European megahubs like LHR and CDG. Aer Lingus does a lot of business off people like me. Same idea.



Yeah I love the comparisons to Max Jet and EOS

jetblue is a major airline. They can fill a plane just about anywhere out of New York and Boston. Even though I think this plan is stupid, they are going to be just fine putting butts in the seat at fares that are descent. Stop comparing them to no name airlines that had a handful of planes and a dream

The major hubs they run on the US end help


Inclined to agree that having the hubs on the US side will of course help. The question is if it will be enough. AA had significant troubles filling a second CDG flight from JFK and cut down from 3 to 1 flight to MAN. BHX also failed. And this is before JFK got cut back, but even still ORD-MAN struggled too and the ORD hub is a good bit bigger than anything JetBlue has I think? UA also had (757) flights out of EWR to Europe that are no longer around.
As I said before, I hope they manage to make it work but I would definitely not see it as a given.


Just for clarification American ran the second CDG flight from JFK for close to 20 years. From the TW merger until 2 years ago.

As they pulled out of New York they cut it back to one
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Secures Slots For BOS-STN, JFK-LGW

Sat Nov 21, 2020 9:56 pm

RvA wrote:
Inclined to agree that having the hubs on the US side will of course help. The question is if it will be enough. AA had significant troubles filling a second CDG flight from JFK and cut down from 3 to 1 flight to MAN. BHX also failed.

B6 is a lot stronger than AA at JFK. On top of that, they will have fewer seats to fill with an 138 seat LR.

hbernal1 wrote:
Seat1D wrote:
I'll bet my next paycheck that once London and all else that matters in Europe has matured for JetBlue, depending on COVID recovery, but I'm guessing 5 to 7 years down the road, B6 will set there sights on Japan and Korea. Business class fares to Japan are ridiculous. Whether it be with a 787 or a 330, I see Japan in Jetblues future. Who knows, maybe in 7 years there will be a narrow body that can make the journey. But Japan will most definitely happen. Those business class fares are ridiculous.

To cross the Pacific, B6 would probably need first to have a hub about as big as they do at BOS or JFK for connecting traffic - LAX is the only West Coast focus city and there's zero chance it grows to be anything resembling the scale of their BOS/JFK operations. There's also another problem: LAX is great for O&D to Asia, but geographically, it's not great for connections, which is why UA has such an advantage with SFO. This is without considering that widebodies would be required, no ifs, ands, or buts about it and well - so B6 would also have to take on the costs of operating A330s. Not optimal.

I think it's better for B6 to expand further into South America than to cross the Pacific. With the A321XLR, EZE/GIG/GRU/SCL will all be possibilities from FLL and give B6 a decent cost advantage to serve these markets with lower fares and still be profitable.


Unless they attempt to build something in SFO, LAX would be the most likely place they try Tokyo down the road. A321XLR seems to not have enough range for LAX-NRT. But keep in mind that the A321 series has seen its range increase from 3200 nm on A321NEO to 4700 nm on A321XLR in the space of under 10 years. Let's say 5 years after XLR (2028), they will increase the range of A321XLR to 5100 nm. I took a look at how far such an aircraft can go if using a low density configuration with some penalty for wind and got the following for 4800 nm from LAX
http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=LAX-PPT%3B ... =wls&DU=mi
Such an aircraft would allow them to fly to London and Tokyo + leisure stuff like Sapporo and Papeete out of LAX. With just the current iteration of XLR in light config, they can probably reach PPT and CTS but not the 2 large business markets.

Then I took a look at what such range in light config would bring for JFK
http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=JFK-EZE%3B ... =wls&DU=mi
They might be able to make it to TLV in summer time when wind factor isn't as much of an issue, but probably not year round. They would be able to comfortably do EZE. NRT is way too far.

Which means for JFK, XLR is a very ideal aircraft and allow them to reach most major international markets out of NYC with the exception of TLV and East Asia stuff. If they want to hit East Asia from NYC, they'd need to get widebody aircraft. Maybe that's something that would make sense. On the other hand, XLR doesn't help LAX that much. But if there is another range boost to XLR, they'd be able to reach Tokyo and London.

Also, whatever plans JetBlues makes in London, they should consider the need to add future flights there from FLL and LAX. It's hard for me to see how they can obtain LHR slots when international demand comes back. So I think it's not a bad idea to have both LHR and LGW presence.
 
MrPeanut
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Re: JetBlue Secures Slots For BOS-STN, JFK-LGW

Sat Nov 21, 2020 11:12 pm

RvA wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:
NYC-air wrote:

The is obviously a very good point! Connecting at the USA mega-hubs on the majors can be a real hassle. Jetblue can offer a more intimate experience. T5 at JFK is compact and has its own customs hall. Same goes for their operation at Boston terminal C, which is conveniently right next to and just a short stroll from the customs hall in terminal D.

I rather like, for example, connecting in DUB on Aer Lingus versus the European megahubs like LHR and CDG. Aer Lingus does a lot of business off people like me. Same idea.



Yeah I love the comparisons to Max Jet and EOS

jetblue is a major airline. They can fill a plane just about anywhere out of New York and Boston. Even though I think this plan is stupid, they are going to be just fine putting butts in the seat at fares that are descent. Stop comparing them to no name airlines that had a handful of planes and a dream

The major hubs they run on the US end help


Inclined to agree that having the hubs on the US side will of course help. The question is if it will be enough. AA had significant troubles filling a second CDG flight from JFK and cut down from 3 to 1 flight to MAN. BHX also failed. And this is before JFK got cut back, but even still ORD-MAN struggled too and the ORD hub is a good bit bigger than anything JetBlue has I think? UA also had (757) flights out of EWR to Europe that are no longer around.
As I said before, I hope they manage to make it work but I would definitely not see it as a given.


Even with the code share in place, I wouldn’t expect much international expansion on AA from JFK, but rather some contraction.

Vasu made some very interesting comments last week regarding their philosophy on international going forward. Needless to say, it will be much smaller and heavy reliance on international partners to funnel traffic to secondary European cities as opposed to on AA metal like had been done in the past.
 
airbazar
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Re: JetBlue Secures Slots For BOS-STN, JFK-LGW

Sat Nov 21, 2020 11:48 pm

VS4ever wrote:
4. Anybody check the long term frequency of VS from BOS-LHR? Yep only recently did they try to go twice daily

And by recently, it was literally just last year. I'll go further and ask: How many cities did VS serve more than 1x daily from LHR, pre-2019?
 
RvA
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Re: JetBlue Secures Slots For BOS-STN, JFK-LGW

Sun Nov 22, 2020 12:33 am

jfklganyc wrote:
RvA wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:


Yeah I love the comparisons to Max Jet and EOS

jetblue is a major airline. They can fill a plane just about anywhere out of New York and Boston. Even though I think this plan is stupid, they are going to be just fine putting butts in the seat at fares that are descent. Stop comparing them to no name airlines that had a handful of planes and a dream

The major hubs they run on the US end help


Inclined to agree that having the hubs on the US side will of course help. The question is if it will be enough. AA had significant troubles filling a second CDG flight from JFK and cut down from 3 to 1 flight to MAN. BHX also failed. And this is before JFK got cut back, but even still ORD-MAN struggled too and the ORD hub is a good bit bigger than anything JetBlue has I think? UA also had (757) flights out of EWR to Europe that are no longer around.
As I said before, I hope they manage to make it work but I would definitely not see it as a given.


Just for clarification American ran the second CDG flight from JFK for close to 20 years. From the TW merger until 2 years ago.

As they pulled out of New York they cut it back to one


They ran ORD-MAN for a long time too, they didn’t cut back on ORD I believe. JFK-CDG toward the end was not the same market that they entered years prior. B6 may have a hub and brand recognition on one but it doesn’t automatically guarantee success is what my point was. They will be competing on BOS-LON and NYC-LON, lucrative but highly competitive markets, also ones where several airlines either have a hub on both ends or at least good brand recognition in both.
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Nov 22, 2020 2:05 pm

Well the axe came swinging hard this week. Maybe a little too much?
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Nov 22, 2020 2:33 pm

Looks like they are seeing very little bookings in January and February, especially on Tue/Wed. That's going to be 2 tough months there.

I would imagine this latest wave has been damaging to booking outside of holiday weeks.
 
flyby519
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Re: JetBlue Secures Slots For BOS-STN, JFK-LGW

Sun Nov 22, 2020 4:49 pm

tphuang wrote:
RvA wrote:
Inclined to agree that having the hubs on the US side will of course help. The question is if it will be enough. AA had significant troubles filling a second CDG flight from JFK and cut down from 3 to 1 flight to MAN. BHX also failed.

B6 is a lot stronger than AA at JFK. On top of that, they will have fewer seats to fill with an 138 seat LR.

hbernal1 wrote:
Seat1D wrote:
I'll bet my next paycheck that once London and all else that matters in Europe has matured for JetBlue, depending on COVID recovery, but I'm guessing 5 to 7 years down the road, B6 will set there sights on Japan and Korea. Business class fares to Japan are ridiculous. Whether it be with a 787 or a 330, I see Japan in Jetblues future. Who knows, maybe in 7 years there will be a narrow body that can make the journey. But Japan will most definitely happen. Those business class fares are ridiculous.

To cross the Pacific, B6 would probably need first to have a hub about as big as they do at BOS or JFK for connecting traffic - LAX is the only West Coast focus city and there's zero chance it grows to be anything resembling the scale of their BOS/JFK operations. There's also another problem: LAX is great for O&D to Asia, but geographically, it's not great for connections, which is why UA has such an advantage with SFO. This is without considering that widebodies would be required, no ifs, ands, or buts about it and well - so B6 would also have to take on the costs of operating A330s. Not optimal.

I think it's better for B6 to expand further into South America than to cross the Pacific. With the A321XLR, EZE/GIG/GRU/SCL will all be possibilities from FLL and give B6 a decent cost advantage to serve these markets with lower fares and still be profitable.


Unless they attempt to build something in SFO, LAX would be the most likely place they try Tokyo down the road. A321XLR seems to not have enough range for LAX-NRT. But keep in mind that the A321 series has seen its range increase from 3200 nm on A321NEO to 4700 nm on A321XLR in the space of under 10 years. Let's say 5 years after XLR (2028), they will increase the range of A321XLR to 5100 nm. I took a look at how far such an aircraft can go if using a low density configuration with some penalty for wind and got the following for 4800 nm from LAX
http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=LAX-PPT%3B ... =wls&DU=mi
Such an aircraft would allow them to fly to London and Tokyo + leisure stuff like Sapporo and Papeete out of LAX. With just the current iteration of XLR in light config, they can probably reach PPT and CTS but not the 2 large business markets.

Then I took a look at what such range in light config would bring for JFK
http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=JFK-EZE%3B ... =wls&DU=mi
They might be able to make it to TLV in summer time when wind factor isn't as much of an issue, but probably not year round. They would be able to comfortably do EZE. NRT is way too far.

Which means for JFK, XLR is a very ideal aircraft and allow them to reach most major international markets out of NYC with the exception of TLV and East Asia stuff. If they want to hit East Asia from NYC, they'd need to get widebody aircraft. Maybe that's something that would make sense. On the other hand, XLR doesn't help LAX that much. But if there is another range boost to XLR, they'd be able to reach Tokyo and London.

Also, whatever plans JetBlues makes in London, they should consider the need to add future flights there from FLL and LAX. It's hard for me to see how they can obtain LHR slots when international demand comes back. So I think it's not a bad idea to have both LHR and LGW presence.


I like the ambition, but a manufacturer advertised 5100nm plane isn’t going to be able to fly a 5100nm gcmap route, and LAX-NRT/LHR is longer than that. I think the 321 airframe will be a great TATL plane but don’t see a way that it will be viable for TPAC LAX stuff.
 
FlyingHonu001
Posts: 523
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Nov 23, 2020 9:01 pm

CEO Robin Hayes about their upcoming TATL routes for S21

"...JetBlue intends to open multiple daily flights to London during 2021 from both New York (JFK) and Boston (BOS). The carrier is yet to reveal which of the UK capital’s airports will be served, but Hayes hinted that “more than one” London airport could be added to its network..."


Source: https://www.routesonline.com/news/29/br ... ambitions/
 
B6BOSfan
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Nov 24, 2020 12:05 am

Noticed a bunch of cuts made over the weekend to flights from BOS - DEN and SLC. Been looking at booking trips to both for ski vacations. Won't be on JetBlue now. Looks like BOS-SLC is gone most days in January now, and DEN heavily reduced.

Most connections also gone -- so guessing a bunch more was also trimmed.

Given continued light loads in BOS, can't imagine how many years it will take for Logan to recover to 2019 levels.
 
B752OS
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Nov 24, 2020 12:41 am

B6BOSfan wrote:
Noticed a bunch of cuts made over the weekend to flights from BOS - DEN and SLC. Been looking at booking trips to both for ski vacations. Won't be on JetBlue now. Looks like BOS-SLC is gone most days in January now, and DEN heavily reduced.

Most connections also gone -- so guessing a bunch more was also trimmed.

Given continued light loads in BOS, can't imagine how many years it will take for Logan to recover to 2019 levels.


Massport is projecting Q2 2022 for passenger levels to get back to 85% pre-COVID numbers.
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Nov 24, 2020 1:10 am

Did JetBlue also pick up gate 15 at EWR?
 
hbernal1
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Nov 24, 2020 2:19 am

tphuang wrote:
Looks like they are seeing very little bookings in January and February, especially on Tue/Wed. That's going to be 2 tough months there.

I would imagine this latest wave has been damaging to booking outside of holiday weeks.


Add the CA quarantine advisory which is probably tanking LAX bookings as well. Not optimal with JetBlue launching new flights there. Industry wide, I wouldn't be surprised if proof of immunization starts to become a requirement - QF said they'll start requiring it on international flights, perhaps others will follow suit.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Nov 24, 2020 2:22 am

B752OS wrote:
B6BOSfan wrote:
Noticed a bunch of cuts made over the weekend to flights from BOS - DEN and SLC. Been looking at booking trips to both for ski vacations. Won't be on JetBlue now. Looks like BOS-SLC is gone most days in January now, and DEN heavily reduced.

Most connections also gone -- so guessing a bunch more was also trimmed.

Given continued light loads in BOS, can't imagine how many years it will take for Logan to recover to 2019 levels.


Massport is projecting Q2 2022 for passenger levels to get back to 85% pre-COVID numbers.


I think it depends on the market. Those shorthaul business markets will be down for many years. I'd expect stuff like DEN/SLC to come back a lot sooner. JetBlue is expecting leisure travel to bounce back very strongly with vaccine. I am too. I haven't flown since March and I got a lot of vacation rolled over. There are a lot of people like me.

FlyingHonu001 wrote:
CEO Robin Hayes about their upcoming TATL routes for S21

"...JetBlue intends to open multiple daily flights to London during 2021 from both New York (JFK) and Boston (BOS). The carrier is yet to reveal which of the UK capital’s airports will be served, but Hayes hinted that “more than one” London airport could be added to its network..."


Source: https://www.routesonline.com/news/29/br ... ambitions/

Thanks for link. My guess is BOS-LHR + JFK-LGW to start off. Don't think they can get enough LHR slots to be meaningful from both BOS/JFK. If they want to add London flights from other airports like EWR, FLL and LAX in the future, I'd imagine they have to do that at LGW.

Also, it's interesting they talk about seasonal Italy flights. JFK-FCO is definitely like a gravy train in summer time. The Y fares are so much higher than what you'd see on JFK-MXP. Also, JFK-ATH is another goldmine from May to October.

As I said in the other thread, I'd love to see an even longer ranged version of A321 come out that would allow them to try JFK-TLV. JetBlue would make a killing in that market.
 
Blerg
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Nov 24, 2020 7:10 am

But how can they operate Italy and Greece flights even with such a lightly configured A321? Could it be that they are looking at widebodies? Maybe they are going after DY's market as they operated New York to both Greece and Italy, I believe Athens and Rome.
 
FlyingHonu001
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Nov 24, 2020 8:14 am

Blerg wrote:
But how can they operate Italy and Greece flights even with such a lightly configured A321? Could it be that they are looking at widebodies? Maybe they are going after DY's market as they operated New York to both Greece and Italy, I believe Athens and Rome.


B6 doesnt have widebodies, the XLR of the A321neo is gonna do all the work
 
Blerg
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Nov 24, 2020 9:34 am

FlyingHonu001 wrote:
Blerg wrote:
But how can they operate Italy and Greece flights even with such a lightly configured A321? Could it be that they are looking at widebodies? Maybe they are going after DY's market as they operated New York to both Greece and Italy, I believe Athens and Rome.


B6 doesnt have widebodies, the XLR of the A321neo is gonna do all the work


I am aware they don't have any widebodies which is why I am surprised they would consider serving these markets which would be out of range, especially Athens. That said, I wouldn't be surprised if Airbus is offering them the A339 at a really good price. With it they could serve these markets much more efficiently. Let's not forget that the ATH-US east coast market is very well served with DL having double daily JFK, DY I believe with 5 weekly JFK, UA daily EWR, EK daily EWR and then there is AA with its daily PHL.
 
OlympicATH
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Nov 24, 2020 11:08 am

Blerg wrote:
Let's not forget that the ATH-US east coast market is very well served with DL having double daily JFK, DY I believe with 5 weekly JFK, UA daily EWR, EK daily EWR and then there is AA with its daily PHL.


Pretty sure Norwegian won't be flying the route anytime soon. They filed for bankruptcy last week and this was never core for them.

Let's not forget AA also announced JFK-ATH for summer 2021 as part of the broader jetBlue partnership (don't think the flights are bookable yet though). BOS-ATH however is a major unserved route and if jetBlue can make it work on the XLR then they should make a killing. If not then I can see DL giving it a shot in a couple of years.
 
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VS4ever
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Nov 24, 2020 11:47 am

OlympicATH wrote:
Blerg wrote:
Let's not forget that the ATH-US east coast market is very well served with DL having double daily JFK, DY I believe with 5 weekly JFK, UA daily EWR, EK daily EWR and then there is AA with its daily PHL.


Pretty sure Norwegian won't be flying the route anytime soon. They filed for bankruptcy last week and this was never core for them.

Let's not forget AA also announced JFK-ATH for summer 2021 as part of the broader jetBlue partnership (don't think the flights are bookable yet though). BOS-ATH however is a major unserved route and if jetBlue can make it work on the XLR then they should make a killing. If not then I can see DL giving it a shot in a couple of years.


I was of the understanding that the B6/AA partnership was limited to domestic only by design? Perhaps someone can confirm this as I have seen it written on this board somewhere
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Nov 24, 2020 12:39 pm

VS4ever wrote:
OlympicATH wrote:
Blerg wrote:
Let's not forget that the ATH-US east coast market is very well served with DL having double daily JFK, DY I believe with 5 weekly JFK, UA daily EWR, EK daily EWR and then there is AA with its daily PHL.


Pretty sure Norwegian won't be flying the route anytime soon. They filed for bankruptcy last week and this was never core for them.

Let's not forget AA also announced JFK-ATH for summer 2021 as part of the broader jetBlue partnership (don't think the flights are bookable yet though). BOS-ATH however is a major unserved route and if jetBlue can make it work on the XLR then they should make a killing. If not then I can see DL giving it a shot in a couple of years.


I was of the understanding that the B6/AA partnership was limited to domestic only by design? Perhaps someone can confirm this as I have seen it written on this board somewhere


http://blueir.investproductions.com/inv ... -133028188
It includes AA's international routes, but not JetBlue's TATL routes.

We are still 2 or 3 years away from jetBlue trying anything beyond London. Who knows what the demand will be at that time and what airlines will be servicing these markets. This is just some fun ideas to see what they could try.

Blerg wrote:
But how can they operate Italy and Greece flights even with such a lightly configured A321? Could it be that they are looking at widebodies? Maybe they are going after DY's market as they operated New York to both Greece and Italy, I believe Athens and Rome.


Keep in mind, XLR range is 4700 nm. I took a look at possible routes out of JFK using 4300 nm as range for summer time travel. I'd penalize more if the route has to operate year round since North Atlantic winds in winter time drastically reduces range. Again, I'm assuming a low density configuration on XLR to reach that range.

http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=JFK-FCO%3B ... =wls&DU=mi
You can see that ATH would barely work under that scenario. They might find that too tight. I think BOS-ATH should be do-able. Aside from that, FCO and SVO would both be within range. I know that Meridiana flew both JFK-PMO seasonally before. That might be something they could try too. I also looked at African airports that Delta flies to from JFK. DSS would be within range, but LOS would be too far.

if we get another range boost on A321 (let's say 5 years after XLR enters service)
http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=JFK-FCO%3B ... =wls&DU=mi
JFK-ATH/LOS should both be within range and TLV is a little too far out. Then again, maybe they would decide to add widebodies by that time.
 
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PatrickZ80
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Nov 25, 2020 6:20 pm

JetBlue has gained slots at Gatwick and Stansted.

Link (in Dutch): https://www.luchtvaartnieuws.nl/nieuws/ ... uchthavens

Basically this news article says they've applied for slots at Heathrow, Gatwick and Stansted. At Gatwick they got 14 out of the 28 slots they applied for, at Stansted they got all 28 of them. Only at Heathrow they didn't get any slots, their application has been turned down.

This means they'll be able to start flights to London in the second half of 2021. From data it appears they'll be launching New York - Gatwick and Boston - Stansted.
 
Blerg
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Nov 25, 2020 7:22 pm

I am surprised they didn't get any slots at LHR, I expect airlines not to resume their full operations by next summer. So what will happen with their slots?
 
BlueBaller
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Nov 25, 2020 7:26 pm

PatrickZ80 wrote:
JetBlue has gained slots at Gatwick and Stansted.

Link (in Dutch): https://www.luchtvaartnieuws.nl/nieuws/ ... uchthavens

Basically this news article says they've applied for slots at Heathrow, Gatwick and Stansted. At Gatwick they got 14 out of the 28 slots they applied for, at Stansted they got all 28 of them. Only at Heathrow they didn't get any slots, their application has been turned down.

This means they'll be able to start flights to London in the second half of 2021. From data it appears they'll be launching New York - Gatwick and Boston - Stansted.


Previously reported and discussed.

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1454205
 
vtchaz78
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Nov 25, 2020 8:28 pm

Scott Laurence, head of Route Planning, has already stated that they will likely return the Stansted slots. They apply for a lot of slots around the World that they don't intend to use for the purpose of being a part of the process and learning how to work with that individual regulating authority. They expect more Gatwick to become available and still seem confident on LHR being an option, with that and Gatwick combo being the goal.
 
DeltaB717
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Nov 25, 2020 9:37 pm

Blerg wrote:
I am surprised they didn't get any slots at LHR, I expect airlines not to resume their full operations by next summer. So what will happen with their slots?


There has been a worldwide response from the likes of IATA, airport operators and slot coordinators to protect existing slots which are not being utilised throughout the pandemic, i.e. a suspension, if you like, of the long-standing 'use it or lose it' rules for slots.

That basically boils down to carriers at LHR which are not currently utilising their slots will not be made to return them, which ensures that those slots exist when air traffic is able to return to something more normal and, by extension, means that those carriers don't need to make wholesale changes to their flying schedules to accommodate new slot times at dozens of airports around the world.

There will come a time, once traffic does get back to more 'normal' levels, when airlines will be expected to genuinely reassess their operations and potentially hand back some slots; it's at that time, rather than now, that B6 and others have a real shot at meaningful slots at the likes of LHR, CDG, etc.
 
Blerg
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Nov 26, 2020 5:01 am

DeltaB717 wrote:
Blerg wrote:
I am surprised they didn't get any slots at LHR, I expect airlines not to resume their full operations by next summer. So what will happen with their slots?


There has been a worldwide response from the likes of IATA, airport operators and slot coordinators to protect existing slots which are not being utilised throughout the pandemic, i.e. a suspension, if you like, of the long-standing 'use it or lose it' rules for slots.

That basically boils down to carriers at LHR which are not currently utilising their slots will not be made to return them, which ensures that those slots exist when air traffic is able to return to something more normal and, by extension, means that those carriers don't need to make wholesale changes to their flying schedules to accommodate new slot times at dozens of airports around the world.

There will come a time, once traffic does get back to more 'normal' levels, when airlines will be expected to genuinely reassess their operations and potentially hand back some slots; it's at that time, rather than now, that B6 and others have a real shot at meaningful slots at the likes of LHR, CDG, etc.


Thank you, so there is no real time-frame within which airlines need to resume their operations to airports like LHR. Then again, I am sure LHR will be eager to welcome a new carrier next summer in stead on babysitting slots for someone that might or might not return.
 
hbernal1
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Nov 26, 2020 10:08 am

I think LGW is a good Plan B now that B6 weren't able to get any LHR slots. Their goal, at least for now, seems to be to signal their commitment to expanding into London and be able to undercut traditional legacy widebody flying on price while offering a respectable product. The slots will probably become available once the slot use exemptions expire and a few airlines realize they can't go back to their pre-COVID frequencies in a post-COVID environment.

Going back to domestic flying, I looked at unserved routes that had relatively high (pre-COVID) PDEW where both cities are served by B6 and are at a minimum comparable to recent adds like CHS-LAX and RIC-LAS/LAX:

BDL-SAN/SEA (similar PDEW to LAS-RIC and LAX-CHS)
JAX-LAX/PHX/SAN/SEA/SFO (No direct West Coast flights from JAX)
RDU-SAN (#1 unserved domestic route in terms of PDEW, F9 used to run this, I think)
PVD-LAS
TPA-PDX

A common theme seems to be SAN and JAX, both which are growing metro areas either side of the country. SNA came up a lot as well (for obvious reasons), but MCO had a surprisingly high PDEW from SNA.

Happy Thanksgiving to everyone on the thread!
 
jplatts
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Nov 26, 2020 3:25 pm

hbernal1 wrote:
Going back to domestic flying, I looked at unserved routes that had relatively high (pre-COVID) PDEW where both cities are served by B6 and are at a minimum comparable to recent adds like CHS-LAX and RIC-LAS/LAX:

BDL-SAN/SEA (similar PDEW to LAS-RIC and LAX-CHS)
JAX-LAX/PHX/SAN/SEA/SFO (No direct West Coast flights from JAX)
RDU-SAN (#1 unserved domestic route in terms of PDEW, F9 used to run this, I think)
PVD-LAS
TPA-PDX

A common theme seems to be SAN and JAX, both which are growing metro areas either side of the country. SNA came up a lot as well (for obvious reasons), but MCO had a surprisingly high PDEW from SNA.


I have previously mentioned AS adding SEA-BDL/JAX and PDX-TPA nonstop service as possibilities, and these routes are more likely to be added by AS due to AS's FF base in the Pacific Northwest and AS offering connections to destinations in Washington State, Oregon, Alaska, British Columbia, and Hawaii through its SEA and PDX hubs.
 
Seat1D
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Nov 26, 2020 5:45 pm

RH says B6 will keep adding flights to the London market until they have successfully brought down business class fares as a whole. (I'm assuming this is the BOS and JFK markets).

Questions...how many B6 A321s will it take to accomplish this and how many years until they can get enough slots at LHR/LGW. keep in mind, they only have 13 321LRs on order, I assume they'll need all 13 to fly LON in order to successfully drive down business class fares that much.

Between Delta and Virgin, British Airways and AA and UA at EWR, that's well north of 1,000 daily business class seats into LON

For me personally, being an aviation enthusiast, im excited for B6 but you can't beat the option o flying wide bodies across the pond, like Virgins 787s and 350's, AA's 77Ws.

So like RH says, whatever or not you choose to fly us or not, we'll make the cost of your ticket cheaper....and I say thanks RH but I'll take the widebody any day over a single aisle
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Nov 26, 2020 11:58 pm

Seat1D wrote:
RH says B6 will keep adding flights to the London market until they have successfully brought down business class fares as a whole. (I'm assuming this is the BOS and JFK markets).

Questions...how many B6 A321s will it take to accomplish this and how many years until they can get enough slots at LHR/LGW. keep in mind, they only have 13 321LRs on order, I assume they'll need all 13 to fly LON in order to successfully drive down business class fares that much.

Between Delta and Virgin, British Airways and AA and UA at EWR, that's well north of 1,000 daily business class seats into LON

For me personally, being an aviation enthusiast, im excited for B6 but you can't beat the option o flying wide bodies across the pond, like Virgins 787s and 350's, AA's 77Ws.

So like RH says, whatever or not you choose to fly us or not, we'll make the cost of your ticket cheaper....and I say thanks RH but I'll take the widebody any day over a single aisle


But most people flying Y dont have a clue what plane is flying the route. Nor do they know the difference between a 321 and a 767.

And for anyone flying J, the mint experience is spectacular. It is like flying on a private jet.

When B6 started flying JFK to California on tiny Airbuses almost 20 years ago I laughed. Everyone else was using 767s and 757s. No laughing matter anymore...they led the way.

Long story short, they have a strong franchise in NY and will be a player to Europe if they devote the resources to it.
 
737307
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Nov 27, 2020 8:57 pm

If Virgin collapses, B6 could get their hands on those LHR slots.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Nov 29, 2020 11:12 am

For Europe, I'm not sure why there is so much push back from people on a.net. Europe is not exactly a monolithic market. There are large business markets, more VFR market and leisure markets. Not any different than what they already have to deal with. LR/XLR just give them extra range to explore more opportunities. They will find what works for them over time.

Aside from London and maybe Paris/Dublin, they don't need to be dead set on anything.

If they chose to focus on business markets, they could try AMS, BCN, MXP, FRA, MUC and ZRH.

If they chose to focus on leisure in summer time, they could try FCO, PMO, ATH, NCE, LPA, PDL And then shift to South America in winter time.

They could try a really heavy British Isles strategy with flights to MAN/BHX/EDI/BFS/SNN/GLA. They could add A220XLR for those smaller and thin market.

There are so many markets and all have different level of competition and premium demand. Their product may work in some and not in others.

Speaking of London, it'd be interesting to see where else they'd try London from. EWR seems like an obvious option if they can find the slot. I don't see the reason to stop at LAX/SFO/SAN in premium market. EWR-LGW would be wide open without competition for the foreseeable future. Once they get XLR, they can try FLL-LHR if they can get remedial slot for South Florida. They could even try BDL/RDU-LGW if London service is successful and they continue to build those markets up.

hbernal1 wrote:
Going back to domestic flying, I looked at unserved routes that had relatively high (pre-COVID) PDEW where both cities are served by B6 and are at a minimum comparable to recent adds like CHS-LAX and RIC-LAS/LAX:

BDL-SAN/SEA (similar PDEW to LAS-RIC and LAX-CHS)
JAX-LAX/PHX/SAN/SEA/SFO (No direct West Coast flights from JAX)
RDU-SAN (#1 unserved domestic route in terms of PDEW, F9 used to run this, I think)
PVD-LAS
TPA-PDX

A common theme seems to be SAN and JAX, both which are growing metro areas either side of the country. SNA came up a lot as well (for obvious reasons), but MCO had a surprisingly high PDEW from SNA.

Happy Thanksgiving to everyone on the thread!


Thanks for your look at these markets. Keep in mind that what they are planning at LAX for transcon is different than other markets. Long term future of routes like RDU/RIC/CHS-LAX would all rely on connection options at LAX. So I don't see much traction for most of these transcons. I'd say JAX-LAX is the most likely. Anything from JAX to west coast would have to fight against convenient connections at ATL/DFW/IAH. I can see RDU-SAN/LAS, but that would have to be part of a RDU build up that would require several other markets added first.
 
AC4500
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Nov 29, 2020 4:32 pm

hbernal1 wrote:
Going back to domestic flying, I looked at unserved routes that had relatively high (pre-COVID) PDEW where both cities are served by B6 and are at a minimum comparable to recent adds like CHS-LAX and RIC-LAS/LAX:

BDL-SAN/SEA (similar PDEW to LAS-RIC and LAX-CHS)
JAX-LAX/PHX/SAN/SEA/SFO (No direct West Coast flights from JAX)
RDU-SAN (#1 unserved domestic route in terms of PDEW, F9 used to run this, I think)
PVD-LAS
TPA-PDX

A common theme seems to be SAN and JAX, both which are growing metro areas either side of the country. SNA came up a lot as well (for obvious reasons), but MCO had a surprisingly high PDEW from SNA.

Happy Thanksgiving to everyone on the thread!

- Further BDL-West Coast expansion is probably not very likely, as the planes would be better utilized for a continued EWR expansion. I would count on EWR-SEA launching before any more transcon routes from BDL.
- JAX has been a fairly interesting market to watch. If the pre-COVID demand was really there for west coast flights, then this may be a good investment for them once travel demand begins to return to normal.
- We'll have to see if RDU-LAX is successful for them before RDU-SAN is given a chance. Although, I'm surprised at the lack of nonstop flights on this particular market pre-COVID.
- SY tried PVD-LAS not very long ago; it didn't work out. Then again, B6 may have a stronger local traction on the PVD-end of the route.
- If B6 adds TPA-PDX (they would very likely add TPA-SEA as well), then AS would surely respond to them. B6 is down to just 1x weekly on FLL-PDX in December (Sunday only), so I don't think TPA-PDX would work out for them.
 
hbernal1
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Nov 29, 2020 6:53 pm

tphuang wrote:
Thanks for your look at these markets. Keep in mind that what they are planning at LAX for transcon is different than other markets. Long term future of routes like RDU/RIC/CHS-LAX would all rely on connection options at LAX. So I don't see much traction for most of these transcons. I'd say JAX-LAX is the most likely. Anything from JAX to west coast would have to fight against convenient connections at ATL/DFW/IAH. I can see RDU-SAN/LAS, but that would have to be part of a RDU build up that would require several other markets added first.

Certainly if Hawaii happens, I think we could see a lot more "thin" flying into LAX and B6 using LAX as a "gateway" into the West Coast and to Hawaii. It's interesting to me that there's potential for growth at SAN for B6 based on those pre-COVID PDEW, especially when WN hasn't been in such a hurry to bring back flying at SAN. I agree on the RDU-West Coast routes: adding RDU-DCA/EWR/LGA/MCO/TPA first is more sensible than trying to add every possible transcon flight from RDU.
AC4500 wrote:
- Further BDL-West Coast expansion is probably not very likely, as the planes would be better utilized for a continued EWR expansion. I would count on EWR-SEA launching before any more transcon routes from BDL.
- JAX has been a fairly interesting market to watch. If the pre-COVID demand was really there for west coast flights, then this may be a good investment for them once travel demand begins to return to normal.
- We'll have to see if RDU-LAX is successful for them before RDU-SAN is given a chance. Although, I'm surprised at the lack of nonstop flights on this particular market pre-COVID.
- SY tried PVD-LAS not very long ago; it didn't work out. Then again, B6 may have a stronger local traction on the PVD-end of the route.
- If B6 adds TPA-PDX (they would very likely add TPA-SEA as well), then AS would surely respond to them. B6 is down to just 1x weekly on FLL-PDX in December (Sunday only), so I don't think TPA-PDX would work out for them.

It was surprising to see BDL have as many unserved routes with decent PDEW as it did, but I agree EWR is a much safer and more strategic add from SEA, for example, than BDL. But with B6 wanting to become the largest in CT, I don't think they're quite done adding BDL flights, although I expect any further flying to be along the lines of BDL-DCA. I think PVD-LAS works out better for B6, particularly in a more leisure-focused environment, and with B6 having way more traction in the Northeast than SY. For similar reasons, I could also see PBI-LAS working out for B6 on a sub-daily basis. I do think JAX has potential for expansion, but I think more East Coast flying needs to be added from JAX first to make any transcon work; it's hard to gain traction by only serving BOS/EWR/FLL/JFK - they would need to add LGA and DCA at the very least. As for TPA-PDX, this is AS territory and I think B6 is far more likely to add LAX from TPA.
 
AC4500
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Nov 29, 2020 8:32 pm

On the topic of B6 transcon routes, I think they would have a very strong chance of running AS off of LAX-RSW if they were to start that route, which fits perfectly into their LAX focus city model (adding sub-daily flights to popular leisure markets.). Plus RSW seems to be the new "hot" destination in Florida at the moment.

From what I've seen, both before and during the pandemic, JetBlue has been more comfortable at offering lower fares on transcon flights than AS has. (e.g. I remember being rather shocked at seeing them match Spirit's $18 one-way fares on LAS-BOS at the start of the pandemic). If JetBlue were to start a daily LAX-RSW flight, they could potentially run AS off the route by offering lower fares and a higher frequency than AS's 4x weekly flight.
 
tphuang
Posts: 6721
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Nov 30, 2020 12:31 pm

Taking a look at yesterday, which is likely their busiest day for a while. Here are the number of flights and that of some of their competitors in each airport.
JFK - 91 (DL 103)
BOS - 88 (DL 46, AA 31)
FLL - 66 (NK 77, WN 44)
EWR - 40 (UA 195)
LAX - 28 (DL 121, AA 66, UA 75, WN 56, AS 49, NK 24)
SJU - 30 (NK 14)
MCO - 45 (WN 113, NK 51, DL 44)

Their recovery at the 2 Florida airport is certainly ahead of JFK/BOS. FLL seems to be recovering nicely, but NK has really been bringing things back quickly there. They appear to be bringing things back slower than their competitors at MCO. The station that seems to be doing well, but going unnoticed is SJU.

Both of their newly added routes from SJU (PHL and RDU) appear to be doing well. PHL has not seen any cut and RDU is only cut to 5x weekly in Jan/Feb. Other routes like TPA/BDL/DCA are also maintaining 3 to 5x weekly schedules. It seems to me the leisure demand to SJU is still quite strong at this point.

Looking at PDEW numbers from Q3 of last year, it does seem to me that a couple of more routes could be tried based on the success of RDU-SJU (PDEW 126 with over 1/3 O&D).

One would be AUS-SJU which had 92 PDEW (basically all connecting), since it could also attract demand out of SAT, which had 65 PDEW. Another would be CLE-SJU, which had 82 PDEW. This might not need more than 3x weekly service, but it's a route that had direct service in the past. Another one they could possibly try is DEN-SJU, which had 75 PDEW, but that's almost out of A320 range.

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