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catiii
Posts: 3889
Joined: Mon Mar 31, 2008 1:18 am

Re: jetBlue to Miami?

Thu Dec 17, 2020 4:56 am

Miamiairport wrote:
catiii wrote:
Miamiairport wrote:
Adding onto my post above sitting at the gate a bunch of B6 suits came through (had B6 badges). I'd think VSP and PNS could be good for B6.


Oh really? What "suits" were these?


People walking around dressed up (not as crew) with a JetBlue tag around their neck. I have no idea of what jobs the "suits" do but presumably if they were there to discuss opening a new station something airport operations. I doubt they were there to kick back beers at the Conch Flyer.


Wow, you really stumbled onto a find there huh?
 
joeblow10
Posts: 674
Joined: Mon Jun 04, 2018 11:58 pm

Re: jetBlue to Miami?

Thu Dec 17, 2020 5:02 am

Love to see the expansion, but my own selfish gripe is that B6 continues to ignore the Midwest entirely. Can we PLEASE get some service to the likes of MCI, STL, IND, MKE, etc?

Also - SMF-CUN, lord...
 
joeblow10
Posts: 674
Joined: Mon Jun 04, 2018 11:58 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Dec 17, 2020 5:07 am

The only two on that list that jump out as stunningly ridiculous are LAS/SMF-CUN, especially SMF.

F9 tried LAS-CUN and barely made it a season, if they didn’t find the demand I have no idea how B6 intends to. Let alone in a market the size of SMF

The rest should all do pretty well. And as others said, looks like B6 is here to clean up Delta’s mess in Raleigh and Austin. Wouldn’t be shocked if we see everything that just got dropped in RDU by DL this week back on for summer in 2 more weeks.

Edited to add: I’m not seeing SMF-CUN anywhere or bookable. LAS-CUN is. Perhaps there was an error seeing SMF... which would make sense.
 
maverick4002
Posts: 464
Joined: Sun Jul 12, 2015 2:14 pm

Re: jetBlue to Miami?

Thu Dec 17, 2020 5:10 am

I wonder what AA thinks about this, what with there agreement with B6 as respects JFK and wtvr else falls in that scope
 
gdavis003
Posts: 1160
Joined: Wed Dec 18, 2019 4:59 am

Re: jetBlue to Miami?

Thu Dec 17, 2020 5:21 am

LAX-JAX seems like one of those routes that they’ll sell and then cancel before a flight ever happens.
 
MAH4546
Posts: 26683
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

Re: jetBlue to Miami?

Thu Dec 17, 2020 5:31 am

maverick4002 wrote:
I wonder what AA thinks about this, what with there agreement with B6 as respects JFK and wtvr else falls in that scope


AA and B6 don't have immunity. They have to compete, its illegal for them to take each other into consideration with these moves. AA knows they are doing what any reasonable business should be doing.
 
themon
Posts: 8
Joined: Tue Feb 14, 2017 4:59 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Dec 17, 2020 5:37 am

joeblow10 wrote:
The only two on that list that jump out as stunningly ridiculous are LAS/SMF-CUN, especially SMF.

F9 tried LAS-CUN and barely made it a season, if they didn’t find the demand I have no idea how B6 intends to. Let alone in a market the size of SMF

The rest should all do pretty well. And as others said, looks like B6 is here to clean up Delta’s mess in Raleigh and Austin. Wouldn’t be shocked if we see everything that just got dropped in RDU by DL this week back on for summer in 2 more weeks.

Edited to add: I’m not seeing SMF-CUN anywhere or bookable. LAS-CUN is. Perhaps there was an error seeing SMF... which would make sense.




I know CUN-SMF is bookable in the summer, try July 7 - July 10 for example.
 
joeblow10
Posts: 674
Joined: Mon Jun 04, 2018 11:58 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Dec 17, 2020 5:41 am

themon wrote:
joeblow10 wrote:
The only two on that list that jump out as stunningly ridiculous are LAS/SMF-CUN, especially SMF.

F9 tried LAS-CUN and barely made it a season, if they didn’t find the demand I have no idea how B6 intends to. Let alone in a market the size of SMF

The rest should all do pretty well. And as others said, looks like B6 is here to clean up Delta’s mess in Raleigh and Austin. Wouldn’t be shocked if we see everything that just got dropped in RDU by DL this week back on for summer in 2 more weeks.

Edited to add: I’m not seeing SMF-CUN anywhere or bookable. LAS-CUN is. Perhaps there was an error seeing SMF... which would make sense.




I know CUN-SMF is bookable in the summer, try July 7 - July 10 for example.


Weird - when I try it on the app, it rejects even selecting CUN from SMF. But it works on the website, and it’s there in March and beyond - M/W/Sa.
 
MAH4546
Posts: 26683
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Dec 17, 2020 5:43 am

Miami is showing now.

Boston, JFK and Newark each get 4x daily A320.

LAX gets double daily on A321 Mint.

jetBlue is going all in on Mint between South Florida and LAX. A combined eight daily flights between LAX and South Florida's three airports.
 
evank516
Posts: 2289
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2017 12:15 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Dec 17, 2020 5:53 am

iamjoeym wrote:
CanadianRedneck wrote:
What aircraft are they using for EYW ops?


It’s showing E190
Ishrion wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
All these new routes are currently bookable on B6.com

AUS-SFO
EWR-ATL
EWR-RDU
RDU-AUS
RDU-JAX
RDU-MCO
RDU-TPA
AUS-CUN
BNA-CUN
LAS-CUN
LAX-JAX
RDU-LAS
RDU-SFO
SMF-CUN

DL better watch out in RDU, looks like B6 is up to 15 destinations there


EYW-BOS/JFK are available for booking.

I’m not seeing this at all. Starting when?
 
hbernal1
Posts: 239
Joined: Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:51 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Dec 17, 2020 5:56 am

Most of the leaked adds make sense to me, particularly the AUS/MIA/RDU flying, but I don't understand adding SMF-CUN. SAN-CUN is a much better idea (still not a good idea though) than SMF-CUN if you ask me, and probably makes more sense than even LAS/BNA-CUN. It's much better to add SMF-LAX to use as feed to CUN and other destinations from smaller West Coast markets, but B6 could (a) be seeing potential that many people aren't or (b) trying to prop up an entirely new leisure market.

That said, I think B6 is going in the right direction re: RDU/AUS. Aggressive at RDU (12 routes so far in 2020!), and slow-and-steady adds at AUS given the large WN presence there but expanding all the same after DL's pullback in both airports. And while I don't particularly like LAS-CUN, the steady, methodical increase in SFO/LAS flying continues.
 
hbernal1
Posts: 239
Joined: Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:51 pm

Re: jetBlue to Miami?

Thu Dec 17, 2020 6:11 am

gdavis003 wrote:
LAX-JAX seems like one of those routes that they’ll sell and then cancel before a flight ever happens.

Not really, pre-COVID, PDEW was north of 100 daily pax and with a nonstop it has the potential to stimulate demand for at least regular sub-daily service. Plus, long-and-thin routes that have no competition seems to be what B6 likes from LAX so this doesn't surprise me that much.
 
MAH4546
Posts: 26683
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

Re: jetBlue to Miami?

Thu Dec 17, 2020 6:16 am

Miami is bookable. Going right into the thick of it with fourteen flights a day at launch. LAX gets double-daily Mint service, and Boston, JFK and Newark see four daily A320s each.

Starts on February 11th, 2021, exactly 21 years to the day after jetBlue launched it's first ever route, JFK-FLL (which to this day still has JetBlue Flight #1).
 
Blerg
Posts: 5222
Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 11:42 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Dec 17, 2020 6:25 am

I see they added three flights out of Austin, how big are they there? I always had the impression B6 was rather weak in Texas. Could it be that they are slowly putting a greater focus on AUS?
 
MavyWavyATR
Posts: 282
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 2014 10:52 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Dec 17, 2020 6:32 am

iamjoeym wrote:
CanadianRedneck wrote:
What aircraft are they using for EYW ops?


It’s showing E190


Should be interesting to see how the E190 performs on the flight going back.
 
tphuang
Posts: 6725
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: jetBlue to Miami?

Thu Dec 17, 2020 10:51 am

A couple of more questions:
1) Does the AA partnership get expanded further? Their adds at RDU, AUS and SFO don't provide any additional competition to AA, but would end up strengthening AA's position in those markets if they start code sharing.

2) Now they are scheduled for 8x on FLL/MIA/PBI-LAX. They clearly are not going to actually fly that many. But even if they trim down to 5-6x in spring, they'd match AA out of MIA-LAX in frequency. If we ignore PBI-LAX for distance reasons, 5x between FLL/MIA-LAX in April/May would still be competitive with AA on schedule and product. Would this make them more likely to pick up premium passenger or less? In manhattan, most people probably would see their EWR/JFK-LAX as complementary. How would people south Florida see this?

3) Are the planning a new mini-focus city at SFO? Since COVID, they've now added EWR, MCO, BDL, CUN, AUS and RDU. And the new terminal 1 is very empty right now. I think they should cancel CUN and add SJD instead. But if these transcon/midcon tech routes do okay, they really just need to get on the LAX-SFO shuttle, add LAS, HNL and possibly SAN to replicate what VX had. That'd be the west coast strategy they always wanted with the attempted VX merger.

gdavis003 wrote:
LAX-JAX seems like one of those routes that they’ll sell and then cancel before a flight ever happens.

Their LAX adds are here to stay for the most part. Whether they end up as daily or 3 to 4 weekly is hard to say. I would imagine BDL/CHS/RIC/JAX-LAX all stay as 2 to 4x weekly for a while until demand comes back.

Btw, JAX was a bigger market than both RIC and CHS based of Q3 data from last year. It was one of the markets that was rumoured right after the LAX announcement. They are looking to capture some of the JAX to west coast traffic in general. It should be more than just O&D.
 
Ishrion
Posts: 3637
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 6:17 am

Re: jetBlue to Miami?

Thu Dec 17, 2020 12:08 pm

Unconfirmed: JetBlue will join AA at Concourse E

https://mobile.twitter.com/AndySlater/s ... 3609782273
 
SurfandSnow
Posts: 1682
Joined: Sun Feb 01, 2009 7:09 am

Re: jetBlue to Miami?

Thu Dec 17, 2020 12:39 pm

This is really exciting. Service between California, where I live, and Florida, where my parents live, has really been improving lately. Great to see another high quality option between our two states!!
 
Nicknuzzii
Posts: 1994
Joined: Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:57 pm

Re: jetBlue to Miami?

Thu Dec 17, 2020 1:12 pm

tphuang wrote:
I guess the word got out early
https://paxex.aero/2020/12/jetblue-set- ... arly-2021/

I wonder if they will announce RDU as a focus city.


Considering they still haven’t announced EWR as a focus city, I wouldn’t hold my breath.
 
Nicknuzzii
Posts: 1994
Joined: Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:57 pm

Re: jetBlue to Miami?

Thu Dec 17, 2020 1:14 pm

EWR was the big winner in terms of number of new departures with 10.
 
Ishrion
Posts: 3637
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 6:17 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Dec 17, 2020 1:20 pm

Press release on the 24 new routes including MIA, EYW, SJD: http://blueir.investproductions.com/inv ... -130220331

No word on how this may tie into the AA partnership. It's sort of ironic that American is relaunching their BOS-EYW flight in around four hours.
 
tphuang
Posts: 6725
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Dec 17, 2020 1:41 pm

I think SFO, LAS, RDU, BNA and AUS were probably identified by JetBlue leadership as possible new focus cities a while back. And those all have some properties of having leisure demand, tech industry (outside of LAS), population growth (outside of SFO) and linkage to NYC/BOS. Out of these, BNA is the toughest nut to crack due to WN presence, but I do still expect to see EWR added at some point. LAS is high volume but low yielding, so they are sticking with a lot of transcon stuff that WN/NK aren't likely to operate. AUS has always been the middle of the country fantasy for JetBlue fans, but it's a tough market for them to crack with WN and AA presence there. Which narrows us to RDU and SFO.

Taking a look at top 25 markets out of RDU based on 2019Q3 PDEW (from a combination of BTS compile data and the fare data file they also provide. You will see they don't match exactly)
1) NYC area 1619 (fare data file breakdown 768 LGA, 592 EWR, 357 JFK, 92 ISP) - Avg Fare 157
2) BOS area 931 (fare data file breakdown 1041 BOS, 104 PVD, 41 MHT) - Avg Fare 158
3) Chicago area 866 - Avg Fare 133
4) Washington DC 610 (fare data file breakdown 295 DCA, 387 BWI, 82 IAD) - Avg fare 170
5) Miami area 509 (fare data file breakdown 216 MIA, 396 FLL) - Avg Fare 143
6) Denver 505 Avg fare 196
7) Atlanta 5004 Avg Fare 220
8) LA area 491 Avg Fare 291
9) SF area 483 (fare data file breakdown 408 SFO, 105 SJC, 32 OAK) - Avg Fare 292
10) Orlando area 452 - Avg Fare 129
11) Dallas area 450 - Avg Fare 250
12) PHL 426 - Avg Fare 154
13) Las Vegas 335 - Avg Fare 213
14) TPA 330 - Avg Fare 133
15) Nashville 313 - Avg Fare 161
16) Seattle 294 - Avg Fare 303
17) Detroit 281 - Avg Fare 158
18) Houston 271 - Avg Fare 237
19) MSP 256 - Avg Fare 238
20) Austin 205 - Avg Fare 193
21) PHX 178 - Avg Fare 290
22) San Diego 175 - Avg Fare 250
23) Kansas City 163 - Avg Fare 179
24) St Louis 145 - Avg Fare 250
25) MSY 140 - Avg Fare 154

Now other markets they've already added or can consider adding if they are building a focus city here that connects to Florida
27) BDL 125 - Avg Fare 165
30) CLE 111 - Avg Fare 160
34) BUF 97 - Avg Fare 163
36) Albany 78 - Avg Fare 173
42) JAX 53 - Avg Fare 187
43) PBI 50 - Avg Fare 158
54) RSW 34 - Avg Fare 244

As you can see in the top 25 list, DL's strong hubs don't really match up that well with RDU's biggest market. AA's hubs match up really well with RDU. That along with CLT is probably the reason AA has been the strongest carrier in RDU historically. Quite of a few of DL's adds are into midwest markets that probably don't have enough demand to sustain service to RDU in an environment where business travel is down 30 to 40%. That's why they cut some of these routes.

Looking at all of their adds from today:
EWR - no brainer
SFO - makes a lot of sense, similar demand to LAX and AS is no longer on that route. Demand here should be down for a while.
MCO - obvious market to add
LAS - makes sense for them to add here. Looks like WN has Sat Only and F9 is daily here. Should be enough room for B6 here but would be easier if they can push F9 out.
Tampa - obvious market to add
Austin - Without DL here, it's WN 6x weekly. Can probably handle 2 carriers once demand comes back, but we will see.
JAX - more questionable. My guess is that they saw RSW performing reasonably enough despite having even less demand pre-COVID. So they think this could work with lower fare.

These adds have been more leisure focused. Once the short haul business demand comes back a little more, I think LGA and DCA are the obvious adds here. PHL would make sense too. ORD seems too tough. Same with DEN. If we ignore the fortress hubs, the next possible adds are BNA, SAN and BDL. It'd be interesting to see what DL does here. I'm sure stuff like ORD, BWI, PHL and MSY were loss leaders to sustain their position in the market.
 
airbazar
Posts: 10546
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:12 pm

Re: jetBlue to Miami?

Thu Dec 17, 2020 1:47 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
Miamiairport wrote:
I'd think VSP and PNS could be good for B6.


From where? PDEWs? I don't think the Florida Panhandle is a big destination from NYC/BOS.


It's too damn difficult/expensive to fly there, that's the problem.
I've tried and ended up settling for something else because there's so little inventory to those destinations that the fares are ridiculous around school vacation periods. Driving there from the Northeast is out of the question.
 
Miamiairport
Posts: 828
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2018 8:14 pm

Re: jetBlue to Miami?

Thu Dec 17, 2020 1:51 pm

B752OS wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:
B752OS wrote:

I don't know too many people who have ever even been to the Florida panhandle (anecdotal of course). Why go there when you can go to Naples, Key West, or Miami and have noticeably warmer weather?


It's dirt cheap. Also Miami is typically colder than the rest of the state during the summer. 90 degree days are far less common in South Florida.


I should have added I was specifying late Fall and winter. Temps in South Florida are warmer than Northern Florida.


Also I'm finding that Southern Floridians actually like going to North Florida during winter (I'm one of them) because it's an escape from the 80 degree heat without experiencing something we all hate-winter weather.
 
775899
Posts: 1033
Joined: Sat Jul 27, 2019 8:03 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Dec 17, 2020 2:01 pm

tphuang wrote:
I think SFO, LAS, RDU, BNA and AUS were probably identified by JetBlue leadership as possible new focus cities a while back. And those all have some properties of having leisure demand, tech industry (outside of LAS), population growth (outside of SFO) and linkage to NYC/BOS. Out of these, BNA is the toughest nut to crack due to WN presence, but I do still expect to see EWR added at some point. LAS is high volume but low yielding, so they are sticking with a lot of transcon stuff that WN/NK aren't likely to operate. AUS has always been the middle of the country fantasy for JetBlue fans, but it's a tough market for them to crack with WN and AA presence there. Which narrows us to RDU and SFO.

Taking a look at top 25 markets out of RDU based on 2019Q3 PDEW (from a combination of BTS compile data and the fare data file they also provide. You will see they don't match exactly)
1) NYC area 1619 (fare data file breakdown 768 LGA, 592 EWR, 357 JFK, 92 ISP) - Avg Fare 157
2) BOS area 931 (fare data file breakdown 1041 BOS, 104 PVD, 41 MHT) - Avg Fare 158
3) Chicago area 866 - Avg Fare 133
4) Washington DC 610 (fare data file breakdown 295 DCA, 387 BWI, 82 IAD) - Avg fare 170
5) Miami area 509 (fare data file breakdown 216 MIA, 396 FLL) - Avg Fare 143
6) Denver 505 Avg fare 196
7) Atlanta 5004 Avg Fare 220
8) LA area 491 Avg Fare 291
9) SF area 483 (fare data file breakdown 408 SFO, 105 SJC, 32 OAK) - Avg Fare 292
10) Orlando area 452 - Avg Fare 129
11) Dallas area 450 - Avg Fare 250
12) PHL 426 - Avg Fare 154
13) Las Vegas 335 - Avg Fare 213
14) TPA 330 - Avg Fare 133
15) Nashville 313 - Avg Fare 161
16) Seattle 294 - Avg Fare 303
17) Detroit 281 - Avg Fare 158
18) Houston 271 - Avg Fare 237
19) MSP 256 - Avg Fare 238
20) Austin 205 - Avg Fare 193
21) PHX 178 - Avg Fare 290
22) San Diego 175 - Avg Fare 250
23) Kansas City 163 - Avg Fare 179
24) St Louis 145 - Avg Fare 250
25) MSY 140 - Avg Fare 154

Now other markets they've already added or can consider adding if they are building a focus city here that connects to Florida
27) BDL 125 - Avg Fare 165
30) CLE 111 - Avg Fare 160
34) BUF 97 - Avg Fare 163
36) Albany 78 - Avg Fare 173
42) JAX 53 - Avg Fare 187
43) PBI 50 - Avg Fare 158
54) RSW 34 - Avg Fare 244

As you can see in the top 25 list, DL's strong hubs don't really match up that well with RDU's biggest market. AA's hubs match up really well with RDU. That along with CLT is probably the reason AA has been the strongest carrier in RDU historically. Quite of a few of DL's adds are into midwest markets that probably don't have enough demand to sustain service to RDU in an environment where business travel is down 30 to 40%. That's why they cut some of these routes.

Looking at all of their adds from today:
EWR - no brainer
SFO - makes a lot of sense, similar demand to LAX and AS is no longer on that route. Demand here should be down for a while.
MCO - obvious market to add
LAS - makes sense for them to add here. Looks like WN has Sat Only and F9 is daily here. Should be enough room for B6 here but would be easier if they can push F9 out.
Tampa - obvious market to add
Austin - Without DL here, it's WN 6x weekly. Can probably handle 2 carriers once demand comes back, but we will see.
JAX - more questionable. My guess is that they saw RSW performing reasonably enough despite having even less demand pre-COVID. So they think this could work with lower fare.

These adds have been more leisure focused. Once the short haul business demand comes back a little more, I think LGA and DCA are the obvious adds here. PHL would make sense too. ORD seems too tough. Same with DEN. If we ignore the fortress hubs, the next possible adds are BNA, SAN and BDL. It'd be interesting to see what DL does here. I'm sure stuff like ORD, BWI, PHL and MSY were loss leaders to sustain their position in the market.


B6 should be capitalizing on DL’s failures and building up RDU and AUS into large, hub-like focus cities a la BOS. Both markets are strong and they fit in well with B6’s model.

BNA is strong too, but WN already has a large presence here so I don’t think they’ll add much outside of EWR and maybe LAX.
 
User avatar
Midwestindy
Posts: 6418
Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Dec 17, 2020 2:29 pm

BNAMealer wrote:
tphuang wrote:
I think SFO, LAS, RDU, BNA and AUS were probably identified by JetBlue leadership as possible new focus cities a while back. And those all have some properties of having leisure demand, tech industry (outside of LAS), population growth (outside of SFO) and linkage to NYC/BOS. Out of these, BNA is the toughest nut to crack due to WN presence, but I do still expect to see EWR added at some point. LAS is high volume but low yielding, so they are sticking with a lot of transcon stuff that WN/NK aren't likely to operate. AUS has always been the middle of the country fantasy for JetBlue fans, but it's a tough market for them to crack with WN and AA presence there. Which narrows us to RDU and SFO.

Taking a look at top 25 markets out of RDU based on 2019Q3 PDEW (from a combination of BTS compile data and the fare data file they also provide. You will see they don't match exactly)
1) NYC area 1619 (fare data file breakdown 768 LGA, 592 EWR, 357 JFK, 92 ISP) - Avg Fare 157
2) BOS area 931 (fare data file breakdown 1041 BOS, 104 PVD, 41 MHT) - Avg Fare 158
3) Chicago area 866 - Avg Fare 133
4) Washington DC 610 (fare data file breakdown 295 DCA, 387 BWI, 82 IAD) - Avg fare 170
5) Miami area 509 (fare data file breakdown 216 MIA, 396 FLL) - Avg Fare 143
6) Denver 505 Avg fare 196
7) Atlanta 5004 Avg Fare 220
8) LA area 491 Avg Fare 291
9) SF area 483 (fare data file breakdown 408 SFO, 105 SJC, 32 OAK) - Avg Fare 292
10) Orlando area 452 - Avg Fare 129
11) Dallas area 450 - Avg Fare 250
12) PHL 426 - Avg Fare 154
13) Las Vegas 335 - Avg Fare 213
14) TPA 330 - Avg Fare 133
15) Nashville 313 - Avg Fare 161
16) Seattle 294 - Avg Fare 303
17) Detroit 281 - Avg Fare 158
18) Houston 271 - Avg Fare 237
19) MSP 256 - Avg Fare 238
20) Austin 205 - Avg Fare 193
21) PHX 178 - Avg Fare 290
22) San Diego 175 - Avg Fare 250
23) Kansas City 163 - Avg Fare 179
24) St Louis 145 - Avg Fare 250
25) MSY 140 - Avg Fare 154

Now other markets they've already added or can consider adding if they are building a focus city here that connects to Florida
27) BDL 125 - Avg Fare 165
30) CLE 111 - Avg Fare 160
34) BUF 97 - Avg Fare 163
36) Albany 78 - Avg Fare 173
42) JAX 53 - Avg Fare 187
43) PBI 50 - Avg Fare 158
54) RSW 34 - Avg Fare 244

As you can see in the top 25 list, DL's strong hubs don't really match up that well with RDU's biggest market. AA's hubs match up really well with RDU. That along with CLT is probably the reason AA has been the strongest carrier in RDU historically. Quite of a few of DL's adds are into midwest markets that probably don't have enough demand to sustain service to RDU in an environment where business travel is down 30 to 40%. That's why they cut some of these routes.

Looking at all of their adds from today:
EWR - no brainer
SFO - makes a lot of sense, similar demand to LAX and AS is no longer on that route. Demand here should be down for a while.
MCO - obvious market to add
LAS - makes sense for them to add here. Looks like WN has Sat Only and F9 is daily here. Should be enough room for B6 here but would be easier if they can push F9 out.
Tampa - obvious market to add
Austin - Without DL here, it's WN 6x weekly. Can probably handle 2 carriers once demand comes back, but we will see.
JAX - more questionable. My guess is that they saw RSW performing reasonably enough despite having even less demand pre-COVID. So they think this could work with lower fare.

These adds have been more leisure focused. Once the short haul business demand comes back a little more, I think LGA and DCA are the obvious adds here. PHL would make sense too. ORD seems too tough. Same with DEN. If we ignore the fortress hubs, the next possible adds are BNA, SAN and BDL. It'd be interesting to see what DL does here. I'm sure stuff like ORD, BWI, PHL and MSY were loss leaders to sustain their position in the market.


B6 should be capitalizing on DL’s failures and building up RDU and AUS into large, hub-like focus cities a la BOS. Both markets are strong and they fit in well with B6’s model.

BNA is strong too, but WN already has a large presence here so I don’t think they’ll add much outside of EWR and maybe LAX.


DL's "focus city" in AUS was really in name only, they were 4th largest in AUS at YE 2019, and didn't run any p2p routes.

I think the ship sailed on B6 & AUS, WN has 33 routes from there, & AA has nearly 40 departures with the vast majority being mainline.

AS & NK carried more pax through AUS than B6 did in 2019, to put it in context....
 
RL757PVD
Posts: 3325
Joined: Fri Dec 03, 1999 2:47 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Dec 17, 2020 2:34 pm

honestly surprised for no BDL-RDU, perhaps after the winter season. PVD and BUF can potentially follow in those footsteps.

Also creates some hope for PVD-LAX late spring/early summer.
 
775899
Posts: 1033
Joined: Sat Jul 27, 2019 8:03 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Dec 17, 2020 2:40 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
BNAMealer wrote:
tphuang wrote:
I think SFO, LAS, RDU, BNA and AUS were probably identified by JetBlue leadership as possible new focus cities a while back. And those all have some properties of having leisure demand, tech industry (outside of LAS), population growth (outside of SFO) and linkage to NYC/BOS. Out of these, BNA is the toughest nut to crack due to WN presence, but I do still expect to see EWR added at some point. LAS is high volume but low yielding, so they are sticking with a lot of transcon stuff that WN/NK aren't likely to operate. AUS has always been the middle of the country fantasy for JetBlue fans, but it's a tough market for them to crack with WN and AA presence there. Which narrows us to RDU and SFO.

Taking a look at top 25 markets out of RDU based on 2019Q3 PDEW (from a combination of BTS compile data and the fare data file they also provide. You will see they don't match exactly)
1) NYC area 1619 (fare data file breakdown 768 LGA, 592 EWR, 357 JFK, 92 ISP) - Avg Fare 157
2) BOS area 931 (fare data file breakdown 1041 BOS, 104 PVD, 41 MHT) - Avg Fare 158
3) Chicago area 866 - Avg Fare 133
4) Washington DC 610 (fare data file breakdown 295 DCA, 387 BWI, 82 IAD) - Avg fare 170
5) Miami area 509 (fare data file breakdown 216 MIA, 396 FLL) - Avg Fare 143
6) Denver 505 Avg fare 196
7) Atlanta 5004 Avg Fare 220
8) LA area 491 Avg Fare 291
9) SF area 483 (fare data file breakdown 408 SFO, 105 SJC, 32 OAK) - Avg Fare 292
10) Orlando area 452 - Avg Fare 129
11) Dallas area 450 - Avg Fare 250
12) PHL 426 - Avg Fare 154
13) Las Vegas 335 - Avg Fare 213
14) TPA 330 - Avg Fare 133
15) Nashville 313 - Avg Fare 161
16) Seattle 294 - Avg Fare 303
17) Detroit 281 - Avg Fare 158
18) Houston 271 - Avg Fare 237
19) MSP 256 - Avg Fare 238
20) Austin 205 - Avg Fare 193
21) PHX 178 - Avg Fare 290
22) San Diego 175 - Avg Fare 250
23) Kansas City 163 - Avg Fare 179
24) St Louis 145 - Avg Fare 250
25) MSY 140 - Avg Fare 154

Now other markets they've already added or can consider adding if they are building a focus city here that connects to Florida
27) BDL 125 - Avg Fare 165
30) CLE 111 - Avg Fare 160
34) BUF 97 - Avg Fare 163
36) Albany 78 - Avg Fare 173
42) JAX 53 - Avg Fare 187
43) PBI 50 - Avg Fare 158
54) RSW 34 - Avg Fare 244

As you can see in the top 25 list, DL's strong hubs don't really match up that well with RDU's biggest market. AA's hubs match up really well with RDU. That along with CLT is probably the reason AA has been the strongest carrier in RDU historically. Quite of a few of DL's adds are into midwest markets that probably don't have enough demand to sustain service to RDU in an environment where business travel is down 30 to 40%. That's why they cut some of these routes.

Looking at all of their adds from today:
EWR - no brainer
SFO - makes a lot of sense, similar demand to LAX and AS is no longer on that route. Demand here should be down for a while.
MCO - obvious market to add
LAS - makes sense for them to add here. Looks like WN has Sat Only and F9 is daily here. Should be enough room for B6 here but would be easier if they can push F9 out.
Tampa - obvious market to add
Austin - Without DL here, it's WN 6x weekly. Can probably handle 2 carriers once demand comes back, but we will see.
JAX - more questionable. My guess is that they saw RSW performing reasonably enough despite having even less demand pre-COVID. So they think this could work with lower fare.

These adds have been more leisure focused. Once the short haul business demand comes back a little more, I think LGA and DCA are the obvious adds here. PHL would make sense too. ORD seems too tough. Same with DEN. If we ignore the fortress hubs, the next possible adds are BNA, SAN and BDL. It'd be interesting to see what DL does here. I'm sure stuff like ORD, BWI, PHL and MSY were loss leaders to sustain their position in the market.


B6 should be capitalizing on DL’s failures and building up RDU and AUS into large, hub-like focus cities a la BOS. Both markets are strong and they fit in well with B6’s model.

BNA is strong too, but WN already has a large presence here so I don’t think they’ll add much outside of EWR and maybe LAX.


DL's "focus city" in AUS was really in name only, they were 4th largest in AUS at YE 2019, and didn't run any p2p routes.

I think the ship sailed on B6 & AUS, WN has 33 routes from there, & AA has nearly 40 departures with the vast majority being mainline.

AS & NK carried more pax through AUS than B6 did in 2019, to put it in context....


The thing about AUS is, it is a more fragmented that people think. WN's AUS operation is not like BNA and I don't think WN ever intends for it to be with DAL/HOU nearby. B6 could make some serious inroads with the right moves.

RDU there is no excuse. They have a clear opportunity to create a southeastern BOS there.
 
trueblew
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Re: jetBlue to Miami?

Thu Dec 17, 2020 2:40 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
tphuang wrote:
I guess the word got out early
https://paxex.aero/2020/12/jetblue-set- ... arly-2021/

I wonder if they will announce RDU as a focus city.


Considering they still haven’t announced EWR as a focus city, I wouldn’t hold my breath.


EWR is part of the NYC focus city, along with JFK and LGA. Reference the route map terminology when the first EWR expansion was announced.
 
phatfarmlines
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Re: jetBlue to Miami?

Thu Dec 17, 2020 2:58 pm

This does make me wonder DL's future status as a focus in RDU and MIA. These are ballsy network moves B6 is making, no doubt because it can run and hide behind AA now.
 
juan885
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Dec 17, 2020 3:00 pm

I wonder what equipment for JFK-BOG. What is the performance northbound on the 320 vs 321NEO?
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Dec 17, 2020 3:05 pm

A lot to chew on.

Solid adds. Lost in the noise is the continued build up of EWR LAX and now RDU
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Dec 17, 2020 3:06 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
A lot to chew on.

Solid adds. Lost in the noise is the continued build up of EWR LAX and now RDU


EWR now 71 flights without cuts?
 
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Coronado990
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Re: jetBlue to Miami?

Thu Dec 17, 2020 3:08 pm

tphuang wrote:
I guess the word got out early
https://paxex.aero/2020/12/jetblue-set- ... arly-2021/

I wonder if they will announce RDU as a focus city.


Wow! Did I see new non-stops from JAX to both RDU and LAX? That's fantastic news! JAX-SAN would be interesting for military traffic.
 
Nicknuzzii
Posts: 1994
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Re: jetBlue to Miami?

Thu Dec 17, 2020 3:17 pm

Can we change name of thread?
 
Brickell305
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Re: jetBlue to Miami?

Thu Dec 17, 2020 3:25 pm

MAH4546 wrote:
Miami is bookable. Going right into the thick of it with fourteen flights a day at launch. LAX gets double-daily Mint service, and Boston, JFK and Newark see four daily A320s each.

Starts on February 11th, 2021, exactly 21 years to the day after jetBlue launched it's first ever route, JFK-FLL (which to this day still has JetBlue Flight #1).

Good news for B6 and MIA. No surprises on the cities they intend serve either. I guess that since JFK is listed as well, we can put to bed the "New York is dying, everything is shifting to New Jersey" narrative.
 
AWACSooner
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Re: jetBlue to Miami?

Thu Dec 17, 2020 3:27 pm

phatfarmlines wrote:
This does make me wonder DL's future status as a focus in RDU and MIA. These are ballsy network moves B6 is making, no doubt because it can run and hide behind AA now.

Considering DL just chopped the piss out of RDU in the most recent OAG changes, I think we may have our answer already.
 
BlueBaller
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Dec 17, 2020 3:31 pm

juan885 wrote:
I wonder what equipment for JFK-BOG. What is the performance northbound on the 320 vs 321NEO?


Will for sure require 321 NEO. The reason the route took this long to materialize is due to lack performance on the 320 CEO with no other alternative.
 
Wacko55
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Dec 17, 2020 3:35 pm

Blerg wrote:
I see they added three flights out of Austin, how big are they there? I always had the impression B6 was rather weak in Texas. Could it be that they are slowly putting a greater focus on AUS?


Not big at all. With the adds they will have service to only 9: BOS, JFK, EWR, RDU, FLL, MCO, CUN, LAX and resumption of SFO.
 
evank516
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Re: jetBlue to Miami?

Thu Dec 17, 2020 3:50 pm

EYW was announced as seasonal. JFK-EYW is less than daily. Not sure about BOS.
 
Ishrion
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Re: jetBlue to Miami?

Thu Dec 17, 2020 3:57 pm

evank516 wrote:
EYW was announced as seasonal. JFK-EYW is less than daily. Not sure about BOS.


Both are 4x weekly only running from February 11 through April.
 
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enilria
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B6 Adds MIA/EYW/SJD/GUA

Thu Dec 17, 2020 4:01 pm

EYW seemed inevitable. A220 I bet.

The New York-based carrier, which already has a big operation in Fort Lauderdale, on Thursday announced plans to begin service at Miami International Airport in February. The airline said Miami is the busiest U.S. airport is it does not serve. American Airlines has a hub in Miami and most major airlines serve the airport.

JetBlue is also adding service to Key West, Florida, and two other new destinations, Los Cabos, Mexico, and Guatemala City, Guatemala, as part of a 24-route expansion.


https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/a ... 937599001/
 
usairways85
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Dec 17, 2020 4:03 pm

Is there going to be a market for EWR-ATL, EWR-RDU, RDU-SFO in less than 2 months? Just asking, no idea how these markets have fared over the past 10 months, but they are not the warm weather type routes that have ticked up during COVID.
 
Ishrion
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Re: B6 Adds MIA/EYW/SJD/GUA

Thu Dec 17, 2020 4:04 pm

enilria wrote:
EYW seemed inevitable. A220 I bet.


BOS/JFK-EYW are initially on the E-190 but eventually it’ll need to be replaced.
 
toga998
Posts: 57
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Dec 17, 2020 4:04 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
BNAMealer wrote:
tphuang wrote:
I think SFO, LAS, RDU, BNA and AUS were probably identified by JetBlue leadership as possible new focus cities a while back. And those all have some properties of having leisure demand, tech industry (outside of LAS), population growth (outside of SFO) and linkage to NYC/BOS. Out of these, BNA is the toughest nut to crack due to WN presence, but I do still expect to see EWR added at some point. LAS is high volume but low yielding, so they are sticking with a lot of transcon stuff that WN/NK aren't likely to operate. AUS has always been the middle of the country fantasy for JetBlue fans, but it's a tough market for them to crack with WN and AA presence there. Which narrows us to RDU and SFO.

Taking a look at top 25 markets out of RDU based on 2019Q3 PDEW (from a combination of BTS compile data and the fare data file they also provide. You will see they don't match exactly)
1) NYC area 1619 (fare data file breakdown 768 LGA, 592 EWR, 357 JFK, 92 ISP) - Avg Fare 157
2) BOS area 931 (fare data file breakdown 1041 BOS, 104 PVD, 41 MHT) - Avg Fare 158
3) Chicago area 866 - Avg Fare 133
4) Washington DC 610 (fare data file breakdown 295 DCA, 387 BWI, 82 IAD) - Avg fare 170
5) Miami area 509 (fare data file breakdown 216 MIA, 396 FLL) - Avg Fare 143
6) Denver 505 Avg fare 196
7) Atlanta 5004 Avg Fare 220
8) LA area 491 Avg Fare 291
9) SF area 483 (fare data file breakdown 408 SFO, 105 SJC, 32 OAK) - Avg Fare 292
10) Orlando area 452 - Avg Fare 129
11) Dallas area 450 - Avg Fare 250
12) PHL 426 - Avg Fare 154
13) Las Vegas 335 - Avg Fare 213
14) TPA 330 - Avg Fare 133
15) Nashville 313 - Avg Fare 161
16) Seattle 294 - Avg Fare 303
17) Detroit 281 - Avg Fare 158
18) Houston 271 - Avg Fare 237
19) MSP 256 - Avg Fare 238
20) Austin 205 - Avg Fare 193
21) PHX 178 - Avg Fare 290
22) San Diego 175 - Avg Fare 250
23) Kansas City 163 - Avg Fare 179
24) St Louis 145 - Avg Fare 250
25) MSY 140 - Avg Fare 154

Now other markets they've already added or can consider adding if they are building a focus city here that connects to Florida
27) BDL 125 - Avg Fare 165
30) CLE 111 - Avg Fare 160
34) BUF 97 - Avg Fare 163
36) Albany 78 - Avg Fare 173
42) JAX 53 - Avg Fare 187
43) PBI 50 - Avg Fare 158
54) RSW 34 - Avg Fare 244

As you can see in the top 25 list, DL's strong hubs don't really match up that well with RDU's biggest market. AA's hubs match up really well with RDU. That along with CLT is probably the reason AA has been the strongest carrier in RDU historically. Quite of a few of DL's adds are into midwest markets that probably don't have enough demand to sustain service to RDU in an environment where business travel is down 30 to 40%. That's why they cut some of these routes.

Looking at all of their adds from today:
EWR - no brainer
SFO - makes a lot of sense, similar demand to LAX and AS is no longer on that route. Demand here should be down for a while.
MCO - obvious market to add
LAS - makes sense for them to add here. Looks like WN has Sat Only and F9 is daily here. Should be enough room for B6 here but would be easier if they can push F9 out.
Tampa - obvious market to add
Austin - Without DL here, it's WN 6x weekly. Can probably handle 2 carriers once demand comes back, but we will see.
JAX - more questionable. My guess is that they saw RSW performing reasonably enough despite having even less demand pre-COVID. So they think this could work with lower fare.

These adds have been more leisure focused. Once the short haul business demand comes back a little more, I think LGA and DCA are the obvious adds here. PHL would make sense too. ORD seems too tough. Same with DEN. If we ignore the fortress hubs, the next possible adds are BNA, SAN and BDL. It'd be interesting to see what DL does here. I'm sure stuff like ORD, BWI, PHL and MSY were loss leaders to sustain their position in the market.


B6 should be capitalizing on DL’s failures and building up RDU and AUS into large, hub-like focus cities a la BOS. Both markets are strong and they fit in well with B6’s model.

BNA is strong too, but WN already has a large presence here so I don’t think they’ll add much outside of EWR and maybe LAX.


DL's "focus city" in AUS was really in name only, they were 4th largest in AUS at YE 2019, and didn't run any p2p routes.

I think the ship sailed on B6 & AUS, WN has 33 routes from there, & AA has nearly 40 departures with the vast majority being mainline.

AS & NK carried more pax through AUS than B6 did in 2019, to put it in context....

The COVID era has reset the bar for many markets and competition. B6 sees the writing on the wall (potential) for AUS and wants to grab their share as fast as possible. They saw WN spread deep and wide over the past decade and NK expand rapidly. The CenTex market has room for many, but it depends who can get there first during the recovery period.
 
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SumChristianus
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Re: B6 Adds MIA/EYW/SJD/GUA

Thu Dec 17, 2020 4:07 pm

Image

Big push into RDU, EWR, and AUS.
 
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enilria
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Re: B6 Adds MIA/EYW/SJD/GUA

Thu Dec 17, 2020 4:07 pm

LAX-MIA 2X
JFK-MIA 4X (AA must love that)
EWR-MIA 4X
BOS-MIA 4X
JFK-EYW 4/wk
BOS-EYW 4/wk
JFK-GUA 1X
JFK-SJD 1X
LAX-SJD 1X
 
Nicknuzzii
Posts: 1994
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Dec 17, 2020 4:13 pm

usairways85 wrote:
Is there going to be a market for EWR-ATL, EWR-RDU, RDU-SFO in less than 2 months? Just asking, no idea how these markets have fared over the past 10 months, but they are not the warm weather type routes that have ticked up during COVID.


As for EWR-ATL, yes. Very much.
 
2eng2efficient
Posts: 159
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Re: B6 Adds MIA/EYW/SJD/GUA

Thu Dec 17, 2020 4:15 pm

Based on these routes, the AA/B6 relationship certainly seems to have a “frenemies” dynamic... At least nobody can accuse them of collusion.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Dec 17, 2020 4:17 pm

BNAMealer wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
BNAMealer wrote:

B6 should be capitalizing on DL’s failures and building up RDU and AUS into large, hub-like focus cities a la BOS. Both markets are strong and they fit in well with B6’s model.

BNA is strong too, but WN already has a large presence here so I don’t think they’ll add much outside of EWR and maybe LAX.


DL's "focus city" in AUS was really in name only, they were 4th largest in AUS at YE 2019, and didn't run any p2p routes.

I think the ship sailed on B6 & AUS, WN has 33 routes from there, & AA has nearly 40 departures with the vast majority being mainline.

AS & NK carried more pax through AUS than B6 did in 2019, to put it in context....


The thing about AUS is, it is a more fragmented that people think. WN's AUS operation is not like BNA and I don't think WN ever intends for it to be with DAL/HOU nearby. B6 could make some serious inroads with the right moves.

RDU there is no excuse. They have a clear opportunity to create a southeastern BOS there.


You are downplaying the competitiveness of the AUS market:
AUS-LAX 6 carriers
AUS-ORL/CHI 5 carriers
AUS-LAS/SFO/ATL/DEN/CUN 4 carriers
AUS-SAN/SEA/SJC/MSY/WAS/EWR/JFK/FLL 3 carriers

Nearly every route B6 could add from AUS would likely have at least 2 other carriers, unlike RDU where it is normally 1 or 2. B6 can't really make inroads either as they don't have the gate space in AUS for that.

B6 actually has a chance to be a top 3 player in RDU, especially if the AA partnership gets expanded, IIRC AA was up to nearly 70 flights from RDU pre-COVID.

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