A couple of more questions:
1) Does the AA partnership get expanded further? Their adds at RDU, AUS and SFO don't provide any additional competition to AA, but would end up strengthening AA's position in those markets if they start code sharing.
2) Now they are scheduled for 8x on FLL/MIA/PBI-LAX. They clearly are not going to actually fly that many. But even if they trim down to 5-6x in spring, they'd match AA out of MIA-LAX in frequency. If we ignore PBI-LAX for distance reasons, 5x between FLL/MIA-LAX in April/May would still be competitive with AA on schedule and product. Would this make them more likely to pick up premium passenger or less? In manhattan, most people probably would see their EWR/JFK-LAX as complementary. How would people south Florida see this?
3) Are the planning a new mini-focus city at SFO? Since COVID, they've now added EWR, MCO, BDL, CUN, AUS and RDU. And the new terminal 1 is very empty right now. I think they should cancel CUN and add SJD instead. But if these transcon/midcon tech routes do okay, they really just need to get on the LAX-SFO shuttle, add LAS, HNL and possibly SAN to replicate what VX had. That'd be the west coast strategy they always wanted with the attempted VX merger.
LAX-JAX seems like one of those routes that they’ll sell and then cancel before a flight ever happens.
Their LAX adds are here to stay for the most part. Whether they end up as daily or 3 to 4 weekly is hard to say. I would imagine BDL/CHS/RIC/JAX-LAX all stay as 2 to 4x weekly for a while until demand comes back.
Btw, JAX was a bigger market than both RIC and CHS based of Q3 data from last year. It was one of the markets that was rumoured right after the LAX announcement. They are looking to capture some of the JAX to west coast traffic in general. It should be more than just O&D.