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maps4ltd
Posts: 982
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Re: jetBlue to Miami?

Thu Dec 17, 2020 4:18 pm

EWR has really been on a roll this year. JetBlue could be a strong second place airline in Newark at this rate.
 
x1234
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Re: B6 Adds MIA/EYW/SJD/GUA

Thu Dec 17, 2020 4:18 pm

I wonder how GUA (VFR) and SJD (vacationers) will work out considering JetBlue FAILED in MEX and pulled out and they do have IT capable for processing foreign currencies (e.g. $MXN - Mexican Peso). Is MEX dominated by DL/AM?
 
FlyingElvii
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Re: B6 Adds MIA/EYW/SJD/GUA

Thu Dec 17, 2020 4:20 pm

Ishrion wrote:
enilria wrote:
EYW seemed inevitable. A220 I bet.


BOS/JFK-EYW are initially on the E-190 but eventually it’ll need to be replaced.

190? That should be fun on a wet runway....
 
775899
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Dec 17, 2020 4:22 pm

toga998 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
BNAMealer wrote:

B6 should be capitalizing on DL’s failures and building up RDU and AUS into large, hub-like focus cities a la BOS. Both markets are strong and they fit in well with B6’s model.

BNA is strong too, but WN already has a large presence here so I don’t think they’ll add much outside of EWR and maybe LAX.


DL's "focus city" in AUS was really in name only, they were 4th largest in AUS at YE 2019, and didn't run any p2p routes.

I think the ship sailed on B6 & AUS, WN has 33 routes from there, & AA has nearly 40 departures with the vast majority being mainline.

AS & NK carried more pax through AUS than B6 did in 2019, to put it in context....

The COVID era has reset the bar for many markets and competition. B6 sees the writing on the wall (potential) for AUS and wants to grab their share as fast as possible. They saw WN spread deep and wide over the past decade and NK expand rapidly. The CenTex market has room for many, but it depends who can get there first during the recovery period.


The thing people also need to remember about Central Texas is that it includes both Austin AND San Antonio, which is a region of nearly 5 million and counting. It's a pretty ripe market for some sort of hub operation, but the legacies don't really need another hub (especially with COVID) and WN already has large presence in both DAL/HOU, so the market is ripe for B6 to build up a large operation.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: B6 Adds MIA/EYW/SJD/GUA

Thu Dec 17, 2020 4:25 pm

2eng2efficient wrote:
Based on these routes, the AA/B6 relationship certainly seems to have a “frenemies” dynamic... At least nobody can accuse them of collusion.


Collusion can be route-specific. This doesn't take them off the hook. And, as the Facebook suit shows, the Feds can always look back.
 
deltairlines
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Re: B6 Adds MIA/EYW/SJD/GUA

Thu Dec 17, 2020 4:28 pm

x1234 wrote:
I wonder how GUA (VFR) and SJD (vacationers) will work out considering JetBlue FAILED in MEX and pulled out and they do have IT capable for processing foreign currencies (e.g. $MXN - Mexican Peso). Is MEX dominated by DL/AM?


SJD will be fine. The target market there is Americans wanting to vacation, so the MXN issue isn't really a big deal here. MEX relies much more heavily on Mexican point-of-sale, so that did hurt them there (there were other issues too; their flight schedule largely favored US POS and often would require a MX POS traveler to have to spend two nights extra in a hotel since the flights often left MEX in the afternoon/evening and returned in the morning). The biggest issue B6 will have with SJD is that it's been a very popular place to send planes during the pandemic; New York-Cabo capacity has gone from virtually nothing to quite a bit, and this now adds even more.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: B6 Adds MIA/EYW/SJD/GUA

Thu Dec 17, 2020 4:35 pm

Gotta go where the people are actually flying.....chasing demand (and cash)
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Dec 17, 2020 4:40 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
You are downplaying the competitiveness of the AUS market:
AUS-LAX 6 carriers
AUS-ORL/CHI 5 carriers
AUS-LAS/SFO/ATL/DEN/CUN 4 carriers
AUS-SAN/SEA/SJC/MSY/WAS/EWR/JFK/FLL 3 carriers

Nearly every route B6 could add from AUS would likely have at least 2 other carriers, unlike RDU where it is normally 1 or 2. B6 can't really make inroads either as they don't have the gate space in AUS for that.

B6 actually has a chance to be a top 3 player in RDU, especially if the AA partnership gets expanded, IIRC AA was up to nearly 70 flights from RDU pre-COVID.


Right, RDU is a much better market for B6 to expand in than AUS. AUS is a market B6 needs to be in if they want to compete for certain corporate contracts and new money. It is also 20% larger than RDU. But their road to be relevance is so much easier and obvious at RDU. Let's see if this AA partnership expands. I think that'd crush the DL focus city in RDU.

BlueBaller wrote:
juan885 wrote:
I wonder what equipment for JFK-BOG. What is the performance northbound on the 320 vs 321NEO?


Will for sure require 321 NEO. The reason the route took this long to materialize is due to lack performance on the 320 CEO with no other alternative.


yeah, definitely an A321NEO route. A220 can make it, but I think they will keep that closer to home. One of many VFR routes out of JFK that I've been advocating for. It'd be curious to see how the battle with AV and DL works out. I don't see all 3 sticking around at current capacity level. With GYE/GEO/GUA/BOG all added now, the only remaining VFR routes in Latin America for them to add are SAL and UIO with the current fleet of aircraft.

usairways85 wrote:
Is there going to be a market for EWR-ATL, EWR-RDU, RDU-SFO in less than 2 months? Just asking, no idea how these markets have fared over the past 10 months, but they are not the warm weather type routes that have ticked up during COVID.

JFK-ATL has been one of the bright spots so far. That's probably what led them to add EWR-ATL. NYC-RDU is a huge VFR market. EWR-RDU will do well once COVID dies down a little more. RDU-SFO is more questionable. It seems to me a business route that will come back slower.

I think a lot of what they plan to do in RDU is still up in the air. There is an opportunity there.

Wacko55 wrote:
Blerg wrote:
I see they added three flights out of Austin, how big are they there? I always had the impression B6 was rather weak in Texas. Could it be that they are slowly putting a greater focus on AUS?


Not big at all. With the adds they will have service to only 9: BOS, JFK, EWR, RDU, FLL, MCO, CUN, LAX and resumption of SFO.

Believe it or not, that's a pretty big station for them already. Not many B6 stations have service to that many airports. Still only brings them to around 15 to 20 flights a day in a non-reduced schedule. That could still allow them to capture some ff who moved to Austin from the coasts, but I'd imagine that's the best they could do.
 
775899
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Dec 17, 2020 5:18 pm

tphuang wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
You are downplaying the competitiveness of the AUS market:
AUS-LAX 6 carriers
AUS-ORL/CHI 5 carriers
AUS-LAS/SFO/ATL/DEN/CUN 4 carriers
AUS-SAN/SEA/SJC/MSY/WAS/EWR/JFK/FLL 3 carriers

Nearly every route B6 could add from AUS would likely have at least 2 other carriers, unlike RDU where it is normally 1 or 2. B6 can't really make inroads either as they don't have the gate space in AUS for that.

B6 actually has a chance to be a top 3 player in RDU, especially if the AA partnership gets expanded, IIRC AA was up to nearly 70 flights from RDU pre-COVID.


Right, RDU is a much better market for B6 to expand in than AUS. AUS is a market B6 needs to be in if they want to compete for certain corporate contracts and new money. It is also 20% larger than RDU. But their road to be relevance is so much easier and obvious at RDU. Let's see if this AA partnership expands. I think that'd crush the DL focus city in RDU.


I agree in the near term that RDU is a more sure bet, but I don't understand how the Austin, a rapidly growing market where major companies are relocating (i.e, Oracle, Telsa, etc) and has a combined statistical area with San Antonio of almost 5 million people (and counting), can't get a hub carrier at its airport. AA is wounded and WN has their attention elsewhere, B6 can begin to chip away at their marketshare if they go for it. It will take a while, and they won't be able to do serious damage until AUS builds more gates, but the ingredients are there. As far as other carriers being on the route, you can make that same argument in a lot of markets.

B6 needs to expand outside of the northeast and Florida, RDU and AUS are the tickets to doing that.
 
hbernal1
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Dec 17, 2020 5:41 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
You are downplaying the competitiveness of the AUS market:
AUS-LAX 6 carriers
AUS-ORL/CHI 5 carriers
AUS-LAS/SFO/ATL/DEN/CUN 4 carriers
AUS-SAN/SEA/SJC/MSY/WAS/EWR/JFK/FLL 3 carriers

Nearly every route B6 could add from AUS would likely have at least 2 other carriers, unlike RDU where it is normally 1 or 2. B6 can't really make inroads either as they don't have the gate space in AUS for that.

B6 actually has a chance to be a top 3 player in RDU, especially if the AA partnership gets expanded, IIRC AA was up to nearly 70 flights from RDU pre-COVID.

This is true, and that's why I like that B6 focused heavily on RDU but were more careful with AUS. As tphuang mentioned upthread, RDU-BDL/BNA/SAN seem like logical next steps. Once business comes back, B6 could look into RDU-ORD/PHL.
BNAMealer wrote:
The thing people also need to remember about Central Texas is that it includes both Austin AND San Antonio, which is a region of nearly 5 million and counting. It's a pretty ripe market for some sort of hub operation, but the legacies don't really need another hub (especially with COVID) and WN already has large presence in both DAL/HOU, so the market is ripe for B6 to build up a large operation.

Maybe. SAN/LAS could be the next routes B6 adds at AUS if SFO/RDU do well. BDL/RIC are reaches because they're somewhat thin from AUS (based on 2019 PDEWs), but have some potential for B6 if a nonstop is added. But I think the argument isn't so much that AUS isn't a ripe market to warrant a B6 expansion, it's just that the opportunity to fill in the void DL left at RDU was smacking B6 in the face.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Dec 17, 2020 5:55 pm

BNAMealer wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
You are downplaying the competitiveness of the AUS market:
AUS-LAX 6 carriers
AUS-ORL/CHI 5 carriers
AUS-LAS/SFO/ATL/DEN/CUN 4 carriers
AUS-SAN/SEA/SJC/MSY/WAS/EWR/JFK/FLL 3 carriers

Nearly every route B6 could add from AUS would likely have at least 2 other carriers, unlike RDU where it is normally 1 or 2. B6 can't really make inroads either as they don't have the gate space in AUS for that.

B6 actually has a chance to be a top 3 player in RDU, especially if the AA partnership gets expanded, IIRC AA was up to nearly 70 flights from RDU pre-COVID.


Right, RDU is a much better market for B6 to expand in than AUS. AUS is a market B6 needs to be in if they want to compete for certain corporate contracts and new money. It is also 20% larger than RDU. But their road to be relevance is so much easier and obvious at RDU. Let's see if this AA partnership expands. I think that'd crush the DL focus city in RDU.


I agree in the near term that RDU is a more sure bet, but I don't understand how the Austin, a rapidly growing market where major companies are relocating (i.e, Oracle, Telsa, etc) and has a combined statistical area with San Antonio of almost 5 million people (and counting), can't get a hub carrier at its airport. AA is wounded and WN has their attention elsewhere, B6 can begin to chip away at their marketshare if they go for it. It will take a while, and they won't be able to do serious damage until AUS builds more gates, but the ingredients are there. As far as other carriers being on the route, you can make that same argument in a lot of markets.

B6 needs to expand outside of the northeast and Florida, RDU and AUS are the tickets to doing that.


You are making this sound like SAT does not have an airport of its own.

More gates aren't coming for nearly 5-10 years, and when they do come B6 is not going to be the only one wanting them....

You can't make the same argument about other markets, for its size, AUS is the most competitive airport in the country.

Everything you are saying B6 should see in AUS, every other carrier can see....
 
catiii
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Re: jetBlue to Miami?

Thu Dec 17, 2020 6:08 pm

phatfarmlines wrote:
This does make me wonder DL's future status as a focus in RDU and MIA. These are ballsy network moves B6 is making, no doubt because it can run and hide behind AA now.


Run and hide how? The northeast codeshare does not have anything to do with Miami or Raleigh.
 
775899
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Dec 17, 2020 6:20 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Everything you are saying B6 should see in AUS, every other carrier can see....


(COVID-19 aside) how come we haven't seen anyone pull the trigger on a build up of AUS into a hub or large focus city/pseudo-hub?
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: jetBlue to Miami?

Thu Dec 17, 2020 6:52 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
Considering they still haven’t announced EWR as a focus city

No reason for them to, as they view the entirety of NYC as their primary hub operation, not just JFK.
 
dca1
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Dec 17, 2020 6:57 pm

Does anyone know if today’s Miami announcement is in coordination WITH AA, or competition to AA? I saw somewhere it said B6 will share terminal E in Miami with AA. I find it hard to believe AA would just be like, sure compete with us.
 
trueblew
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Dec 17, 2020 6:59 pm

dca1 wrote:
Does anyone know if today’s Miami announcement is in coordination WITH AA, or competition to AA? I saw somewhere it said B6 will share terminal E in Miami with AA. I find it hard to believe AA would just be like, sure compete with us.


I'm not certain anyone knows the terms of the codeshare agreement yet. Safe to assume the NYC/BOS flights are codeshares and LAX plus anything else down the line is competition?
 
hbernal1
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Dec 17, 2020 7:00 pm

BNAMealer wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Everything you are saying B6 should see in AUS, every other carrier can see....


(COVID-19 aside) how come we haven't seen anyone pull the trigger on a build up of AUS into a hub or large focus city/pseudo-hub?

If I were to take a guess, I'd say that (a) AUS isn't built out to be a hub airport since it has a planned capacity of around 11 million pax and (b) it's difficult to have a hub at such a place when WN has the presence it does at AUS. I do agree with your point that it's an area that will begin to merit a "hub" carrier as rapid population and economic growth forces construction of new facilities at AUS. I could probably argue that's also why SAN doesn't have a hub carrier despite San Diego County being home to 3.3 million people and having the southernmost parts of Orange and Riverside counties within a 50 mile radius of SAN.
 
775899
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Dec 17, 2020 7:05 pm

hbernal1 wrote:
If I were to take a guess, I'd say that (a) AUS isn't built out to be a hub airport since it has a planned capacity of around 11 million pax and (b) it's difficult to have a hub at such a place when WN has the presence it does at AUS. I do agree with your point that it's an area that will begin to merit a "hub" carrier as rapid population and economic growth forces construction of new facilities at AUS. I could probably argue that's also why SAN doesn't have a hub carrier despite San Diego County being home to 3.3 million people and having the southernmost parts of Orange and Riverside counties within a 50 mile radius of SAN.


Is WN's presence in AUS really super overwhelming to the point where other carriers shy away? If it were on the scale of BNA/STL, I'd agree, but it's not. Not even close. They do not have a majority share in the market and it is more fragmented than you think.

To discuss this further, see this new thread I started.

https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1455375
 
TWA85
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Dec 17, 2020 7:21 pm

tphuang wrote:
I think SFO, LAS, RDU, BNA and AUS were probably identified by JetBlue leadership as possible new focus cities a while back.


I think you might be right. If their RDU and BNA growth works, I wonder if they would consider doing the same in CMH, IND, MCI, PIT, and/or STL.
 
tphuang
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Re: Updated: jetBlue to launch Miami - Feb 2021

Thu Dec 17, 2020 7:23 pm

I'm quite curious about the AA angle here. Sure, they would not like B6 moving into its back yard. But if they allow JetBlue to join them in Concourse E and made the moves to mostly widebodies on MIA-LAX right before JetBlue announcement would indicate that B6 give them some type of heads up here and didn't piss off AA completely.

I'm waiting to see if the AA deal expands further to a more blanket domestic code share and if AS will be included.

If we look at RDU, the combined JetBlue & AA presence would pretty well cover all the major business and leisure markets (outside of a couple of DL/UA fortress hubs). That'd give AA a huge heads up in RDU in winning back or keeping ff from DL.

If we look at AUS, the 9 routes B6 operates are pretty complementary to AA's network out of there (I don't think AA will stick around on JFK/BOS-AUS).

If we look at SFO, the recent adds of EWR, MCO, BDL, CUN, AUS and RDU again complements AA's network out of SFO pretty well. In fact, they don't even conflicts with AS network very much. So if you factor in rest of OW presence in SFO, AA would be a solid choice for a lot of people in Bay Area.

Even the LAS network is almost completely complementary.

If AA was willing to bite the bullet of basically ceding large portion of its pre-COVID flying to JetBlue, why would it not want to gain additional benefits from JetBlue adding non-AA hub routes to other markets around the country where AA has strong presence?

There are some other markets in the middle of the country like CLE, IND and CMH where having JetBlue adding BOS/JFK/EWR + Florida stuff would probably strengthen AA's presence in those places.
 
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BA744PHX
Posts: 561
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Dec 17, 2020 8:09 pm

TWA85 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
I think SFO, LAS, RDU, BNA and AUS were probably identified by JetBlue leadership as possible new focus cities a while back.


I think you might be right. If their RDU and BNA growth works, I wonder if they would consider doing the same in CMH, IND, MCI, PIT, and/or STL.


Highly unlikely, RDU & BNA maybe small but they are growing markets. That cannot be said for CMH, MCI, IND, PIT & STL
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Dec 17, 2020 8:17 pm

MidwestyIndy posted on US booking thread viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1447283&start=1050#p22559061 that bookings are improving into next spring/summer due to probably optimism on vaccine distribution and pent up demand most likely.

Robin Hayes recent interviews seem to indicate that things are improving after high level of cancellation in November. He seems pretty optimistic about getting solid Jan/Feb booking numbers for spring/summer. I think a lot of these adds should be thought of from that perspective. They are sensing that leisure demand is about to pop with COVID cases likely to peak soon and more people become optimistic about flying as vaccines are distributed and shown to be effective. It makes sense to have these flights added to capture as much of that demand as possible. I was also expecting some kind of announcement surrounding JetBlue vacation but that didn't happen.
 
PRAirbus
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Re: Updated: jetBlue to launch Miami - Feb 2021

Thu Dec 17, 2020 8:34 pm

jetBlue could easily add MIA-SJU and STT/STX, AUA.
 
Leftseatpusher
Posts: 19
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Re: jetBlue to Miami?

Thu Dec 17, 2020 9:14 pm

[photoid][/photoid]
catiii wrote:
Miamiairport wrote:
catiii wrote:

Oh really? What "suits" were these?


People walking around dressed up (not as crew) with a JetBlue tag around their neck. I have no idea of what jobs the "suits" do but presumably if they were there to discuss opening a new station something airport operations. I doubt they were there to kick back beers at the Conch Flyer.


Wow, you really stumbled onto a find there huh?


Probably just going to BFM for the A220.
 
AC4500
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Dec 17, 2020 9:35 pm

Given the current strategy that JetBlue has taken on at LAX, I figured that they would launch LAX-JAX eventually, though operating this route on a daily basis seems pretty risky in my opinion -- the daily frequency for this route will very likely get reduced to 2-3x weekly as the route launch date becomes closer.

From what I can tell, there appears to be two main focal points to JetBlue's current strategy at LAX:
1). Find sufficient ways to properly utilize MINT-configured aircraft in order to compete against the big 3 at LAX. (i.e. LAX-EWR, LAX-MIA).
2). Find unserved market opportunities at LAX on thinner routes in order to entice people to travel (i.e. LAX-CHS, LAX-RIC, LAX-JAX).
- There also appears to be a smaller leisure traffic focus point as well with LAX-BZN, LAX-CUN, LAX-RNO.

I hate to sound pessimistic, but I really don't think the 2nd part of JetBlue's LAX strategy will work out for them in the long-term. Air travel recovery isn't going to just snap back once the vaccine becomes readily available. Even when air travel demand does begin to recover, routes like LAX-CHS, LAX-RIC, and LAX-JAX are going to be slower to gain more traffic than routes with much stronger demand on them.

I honestly think it would be better for JetBlue to add more daily flights on busier routes that they've already started, such as LAX-AUS/LAS/RNO/SEA/SFO/SLC and invest in LAX-DEN/PDX/PHX at several flights a day on each of these routes as well. This way, JetBlue can start to attract stronger customer loyalty from the LA-based customers on routes with naturally higher demand. If JetBlue prices these higher-frequency flights low enough (but still enough to make a decent profit), they'll be able to stifle the competition at LAX, while building customer loyalty along the way.

If it really is JetBlue's goal to become a large player within the LAX-competitive environment, then I don't understand why they are going for these thinner routes in a time where travel demand is very low, whereas they should instead be focusing on routes that still have a bit of demand left in my opinion, then taking on thinner unserved markets once the momentum for air travel recovery is in the airline industry's favor.
 
Miamiairport
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Re: B6 Adds MIA/EYW/SJD/GUA

Thu Dec 17, 2020 9:43 pm

I was at EWY on Monday and a bunch of suits with JetBlue tags around their necks were walking around with presumably airport management. That little terminal is going to get even more packed.
 
MAH4546
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Dec 17, 2020 10:02 pm

dca1 wrote:
Does anyone know if today’s Miami announcement is in coordination WITH AA, or competition to AA? I saw somewhere it said B6 will share terminal E in Miami with AA. I find it hard to believe AA would just be like, sure compete with us.


Absolutely not. AA and jetBlue are not allowed to collude. The codeshare does not change that. Even when it is implemented, they still cannot coordinate and never will be able to.

MIA is a CUTE facility. All gates are common use and airlines do not have gate leases, so MIA will place them where the gates are available, which might be in E with AA. But again, AA has no leases on any gates at MIA so its not up to AA.

All that said, thankfully laws in this country don't allow AA to have any say in jetBlue's route development (and visa versa). They also don't allow airlines to block a competing airline from flying to an airport. U.S. law requires all public airports (which is every airport except Branson, Missouri) to accommodate all airlines subject to reasonable slot and gate restrictions. So if MIA hypothetically had gate leases, and there were no unleased gates available, but AA hypothetically was underutilizing its gates, then AA has no choice but to accommodate jetBlue or any other airline at its gate (of course, subject to reasonable and fair compensation from that competing airline).
Last edited by MAH4546 on Thu Dec 17, 2020 10:06 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
gravytrain
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Dec 17, 2020 10:05 pm

I think LAX to JAX will do fine. Jacksonville didn't have a single route to the west coast prior to this. Infact, they didn't have a single route west of Denver.
 
Brickell305
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Re: Updated: jetBlue to launch Miami - Feb 2021

Thu Dec 17, 2020 10:36 pm

PRAirbus wrote:
jetBlue could easily add MIA-SJU and STT/STX, AUA.

SJU is possible. STT is unlikely as they don’t even fly it from their hub/focus city at FLL. B6 doesn’t fly to STX at all, from anywhere so highly unlikely. AUA is also unlikely as that’s only at once daily from its FLL base and they would have significantly less feed from MIA.

It’s very interesting though. I feel like MIA is the one airport where anytime an airline adds it to the route map, A. Net assumes they are going to create a hub there. We saw that just a few months ago with WN and are seeing it again now. The only possible adds I see from B6 within a year are LGA and SJU.
 
Brickell305
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Re: Updated: jetBlue to launch Miami - Feb 2021

Thu Dec 17, 2020 10:40 pm

tphuang wrote:
I'm quite curious about the AA angle here. Sure, they would not like B6 moving into its back yard. But if they allow JetBlue to join them in Concourse E and made the moves to mostly widebodies on MIA-LAX right before JetBlue announcement would indicate that B6 give them some type of heads up here and didn't piss off AA completely.

I'm waiting to see if the AA deal expands further to a more blanket domestic code share and if AS will be included.

If we look at RDU, the combined JetBlue & AA presence would pretty well cover all the major business and leisure markets (outside of a couple of DL/UA fortress hubs). That'd give AA a huge heads up in RDU in winning back or keeping ff from DL.

If we look at AUS, the 9 routes B6 operates are pretty complementary to AA's network out of there (I don't think AA will stick around on JFK/BOS-AUS).

If we look at SFO, the recent adds of EWR, MCO, BDL, CUN, AUS and RDU again complements AA's network out of SFO pretty well. In fact, they don't even conflicts with AS network very much. So if you factor in rest of OW presence in SFO, AA would be a solid choice for a lot of people in Bay Area.

Even the LAS network is almost completely complementary.

If AA was willing to bite the bullet of basically ceding large portion of its pre-COVID flying to JetBlue, why would it not want to gain additional benefits from JetBlue adding non-AA hub routes to other markets around the country where AA has strong presence?

There are some other markets in the middle of the country like CLE, IND and CMH where having JetBlue adding BOS/JFK/EWR + Florida stuff would probably strengthen AA's presence in those places.


In theory, AA doesn’t have direct say in who goes where. AA doesn’t own or lease gates at MIA and all gates are common use. However, I do find it unlikely that the airport wouldn’t have consulted AA. Would AA have been able to block them? Most likely not but I can’t help but think they were probably consulted and didn’t note any objection.
 
Brickell305
Posts: 1488
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: jetBlue to Miami?

Thu Dec 17, 2020 10:44 pm

AWACSooner wrote:
phatfarmlines wrote:
This does make me wonder DL's future status as a focus in RDU and MIA. These are ballsy network moves B6 is making, no doubt because it can run and hide behind AA now.

Considering DL just chopped the piss out of RDU in the most recent OAG changes, I think we may have our answer already.

I don’t think you can make any sweeping judgment on DL’s presence in RDU long term based on what they are doing now. The purpose of the focus city was to serve business demand. As we all know, business travel is shot for the moment. Let’s see what happens once business travel returns. DL may return those flights or they could retrench to their hubs. This is a wait and see situation.
 
LightChop2Chop
Posts: 229
Joined: Mon Jul 30, 2018 3:33 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Dec 17, 2020 11:15 pm

Only places left in Central America for B6 are MGA, PTY, SAP, TGU and BZE. CentAm has been hot this year in terms of additions due to the VFR markets. We will see what 2021 brings. My bet is B6 starts at least two more of those.
 
User avatar
Midwestindy
Posts: 6405
Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Dec 17, 2020 11:17 pm

BA744PHX wrote:
TWA85 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
I think SFO, LAS, RDU, BNA and AUS were probably identified by JetBlue leadership as possible new focus cities a while back.


I think you might be right. If their RDU and BNA growth works, I wonder if they would consider doing the same in CMH, IND, MCI, PIT, and/or STL.


Highly unlikely, RDU & BNA maybe small but they are growing markets. That cannot be said for CMH, MCI, IND, PIT & STL


The clip IND is growing at isn't far behind BNA or RDU, according to the US Census from 2018 to 2019 IND was #20 for metro growth, BNA & RDU were ranked #16 & #17.
https://www.census.gov/content/census/e ... areas.html

Although yes, PIT & STL experienced negative population growth

Not arguing that any of those are ripe for a B6 "focus" operation though.
 
hbernal1
Posts: 239
Joined: Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:51 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Dec 18, 2020 12:10 am

AC4500 wrote:
Given the current strategy that JetBlue has taken on at LAX, I figured that they would launch LAX-JAX eventually, though operating this route on a daily basis seems pretty risky in my opinion -- the daily frequency for this route will very likely get reduced to 2-3x weekly as the route launch date becomes closer.

From what I can tell, there appears to be two main focal points to JetBlue's current strategy at LAX:
1). Find sufficient ways to properly utilize MINT-configured aircraft in order to compete against the big 3 at LAX. (i.e. LAX-EWR, LAX-MIA).
2). Find unserved market opportunities at LAX on thinner routes in order to entice people to travel (i.e. LAX-CHS, LAX-RIC, LAX-JAX).
- There also appears to be a smaller leisure traffic focus point as well with LAX-BZN, LAX-CUN, LAX-RNO.

I hate to sound pessimistic, but I really don't think the 2nd part of JetBlue's LAX strategy will work out for them in the long-term. Air travel recovery isn't going to just snap back once the vaccine becomes readily available. Even when air travel demand does begin to recover, routes like LAX-CHS, LAX-RIC, and LAX-JAX are going to be slower to gain more traffic than routes with much stronger demand on them.

I honestly think it would be better for JetBlue to add more daily flights on busier routes that they've already started, such as LAX-AUS/LAS/RNO/SEA/SFO/SLC and invest in LAX-DEN/PDX/PHX at several flights a day on each of these routes as well. This way, JetBlue can start to attract stronger customer loyalty from the LA-based customers on routes with naturally higher demand. If JetBlue prices these higher-frequency flights low enough (but still enough to make a decent profit), they'll be able to stifle the competition at LAX, while building customer loyalty along the way.

If it really is JetBlue's goal to become a large player within the LAX-competitive environment, then I don't understand why they are going for these thinner routes in a time where travel demand is very low, whereas they should instead be focusing on routes that still have a bit of demand left in my opinion, then taking on thinner unserved markets once the momentum for air travel recovery is in the airline industry's favor.

My guess is B6 doesn't want to have most of its LAX flying be potentially unprofitable short-haul routes when they can stimulate demand and have monopolies on routes where B6 has strong point-of-sale on the other end. But you make a good point on B6 betting too much on long-and-thin flying out of LAX. I think B6 will learn that they will have to bite the bullet add DEN/PDX/PHX and probably ORD/SJC/SMF as well if they want to be successful at LAX. I also believe B6 should think about BUR/ONT if building (and keeping) a solid FF base across the LA area is something that's important. Semi-related to your point, I'm a bit confused by LAS/SMF-CUN being added when adding LAX-SMF and adding more frequencies on LAX-LAS as feed for LAX-CUN could probably satisfy demand for both city pairs.

Keeping tabs on what B6 has announced out of LAX this year: AUS/BDL/CUN/CHS/EWR/JAX/LAS/LIR/MIA/PBI/RIC/RDU/RNO/SEA/SFO/SLC/SJD/SJO.
SFO this year: AUS/BDL/CUN/EWR/MCO/RDU.
LAS this year: BDL/CUN/EWR/RDU/RIC.
RDU this year: AUS/CUN/EWR/JAX/LAS/LAX/MBJ/MCO/RSW/SFO/SJU/TPA. Interesting.
 
avi8
Posts: 1410
Joined: Sun Jun 26, 2011 1:36 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Dec 18, 2020 12:23 am

RDU will most likely become B6’s next focus city. Can’t wait to see what else is on the pipeline. Seems like MCO and FLL are on standby.
 
MAH4546
Posts: 26680
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

Re: Updated: jetBlue to launch Miami - Feb 2021

Fri Dec 18, 2020 12:41 am

tphuang wrote:
I'm quite curious about the AA angle here. Sure, they would not like B6 moving into its back yard. But if they allow JetBlue to join them in Concourse E and made the moves to mostly widebodies on MIA-LAX right before JetBlue announcement would indicate that B6 give them some type of heads up here and didn't piss off AA completely.


AA isn't "allowing" anything. MIA is a common use facility. AA has zero gate leases at MIA.

And there was no illegal heads up given, but this news was leaked a week ago and they probably already knew from that.

Brickell305 wrote:
In theory, AA doesn’t have direct say in who goes where. AA doesn’t own or lease gates at MIA and all gates are common use. However, I do find it unlikely that the airport wouldn’t have consulted AA. Would AA have been able to block them? Most likely not but I can’t help but think they were probably consulted and didn’t note any objection.


No. MIA would never have consulted AA. That is totally illegal. Would never happen. And AA could never block JetBlue or any other airline from launching MIA. MIA is a public airport. All airlines have the right to serve it, and MIA playing favorites is in violation of antitrust laws. And as a public facility, MIA's directors have a fiduciary duty to work in the best interest of the general public, which means luring as many airlines to compete with AA as possible.
 
Nicknuzzii
Posts: 1994
Joined: Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:57 pm

Re: Updated: jetBlue to launch Miami - Feb 2021

Fri Dec 18, 2020 12:48 am

MAH4546 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
I'm quite curious about the AA angle here. Sure, they would not like B6 moving into its back yard. But if they allow JetBlue to join them in Concourse E and made the moves to mostly widebodies on MIA-LAX right before JetBlue announcement would indicate that B6 give them some type of heads up here and didn't piss off AA completely.


AA isn't "allowing" anything. MIA is a common use facility. AA has zero gate leases at MIA.

And there was no illegal heads up given, but this news was leaked a week ago and they probably already knew from that.

Brickell305 wrote:
In theory, AA doesn’t have direct say in who goes where. AA doesn’t own or lease gates at MIA and all gates are common use. However, I do find it unlikely that the airport wouldn’t have consulted AA. Would AA have been able to block them? Most likely not but I can’t help but think they were probably consulted and didn’t note any objection.


No. MIA would never have consulted AA. That is totally illegal. Would never happen. And AA could never block JetBlue or any other airline from launching MIA. MIA is a public airport. All airlines have the right to serve it, and MIA playing favorites is in violation of antitrust laws. And as a public facility, MIA's directors have a fiduciary duty to work in the best interest of the general public, which means luring as many airlines to compete with AA as possible.


If you don’t believe airports play favorites I suggest you take a look at EWR.
 
ytib
Posts: 721
Joined: Sun Nov 07, 2004 3:22 am

Re: Updated: jetBlue to launch Miami - Feb 2021

Fri Dec 18, 2020 1:09 am

Nicknuzzii wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
I'm quite curious about the AA angle here. Sure, they would not like B6 moving into its back yard. But if they allow JetBlue to join them in Concourse E and made the moves to mostly widebodies on MIA-LAX right before JetBlue announcement would indicate that B6 give them some type of heads up here and didn't piss off AA completely.


AA isn't "allowing" anything. MIA is a common use facility. AA has zero gate leases at MIA.

And there was no illegal heads up given, but this news was leaked a week ago and they probably already knew from that.

Brickell305 wrote:
In theory, AA doesn’t have direct say in who goes where. AA doesn’t own or lease gates at MIA and all gates are common use. However, I do find it unlikely that the airport wouldn’t have consulted AA. Would AA have been able to block them? Most likely not but I can’t help but think they were probably consulted and didn’t note any objection.


No. MIA would never have consulted AA. That is totally illegal. Would never happen. And AA could never block JetBlue or any other airline from launching MIA. MIA is a public airport. All airlines have the right to serve it, and MIA playing favorites is in violation of antitrust laws. And as a public facility, MIA's directors have a fiduciary duty to work in the best interest of the general public, which means luring as many airlines to compete with AA as possible.


If you don’t believe airports play favorites I suggest you take a look at EWR.


Sounds like this is an opinion, or would you like to share examples with sources?
 
User avatar
Midwestindy
Posts: 6405
Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Re: jetBlue to Miami?

Fri Dec 18, 2020 1:24 am

Brickell305 wrote:
AWACSooner wrote:
phatfarmlines wrote:
This does make me wonder DL's future status as a focus in RDU and MIA. These are ballsy network moves B6 is making, no doubt because it can run and hide behind AA now.

Considering DL just chopped the piss out of RDU in the most recent OAG changes, I think we may have our answer already.

I don’t think you can make any sweeping judgment on DL’s presence in RDU long term based on what they are doing now. The purpose of the focus city was to serve business demand. As we all know, business travel is shot for the moment. Let’s see what happens once business travel returns. DL may return those flights or they could retrench to their hubs. This is a wait and see situation.


Yes, but DL pulled those flights completely from the schedule, instead of the rolling cuts they have done for virtually every other route. If they intended them to bring them back, why wouldn't they just roll the cuts back month by month like they are doing for every other route?

ytib wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:

AA isn't "allowing" anything. MIA is a common use facility. AA has zero gate leases at MIA.

And there was no illegal heads up given, but this news was leaked a week ago and they probably already knew from that.

No. MIA would never have consulted AA. That is totally illegal. Would never happen. And AA could never block JetBlue or any other airline from launching MIA. MIA is a public airport. All airlines have the right to serve it, and MIA playing favorites is in violation of antitrust laws. And as a public facility, MIA's directors have a fiduciary duty to work in the best interest of the general public, which means luring as many airlines to compete with AA as possible.


If you don’t believe airports play favorites I suggest you take a look at EWR.


Sounds like this is an opinion, or would you like to share examples with sources?


Airports deciding on favorites is a big "no no," especially because it could lead to antitrust issues.

This almost became an issue with the B6 & ATL spat a few years back
 
tphuang
Posts: 6720
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: Updated: jetBlue to launch Miami - Feb 2021

Fri Dec 18, 2020 1:48 am

MAH4546 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
I'm quite curious about the AA angle here. Sure, they would not like B6 moving into its back yard. But if they allow JetBlue to join them in Concourse E and made the moves to mostly widebodies on MIA-LAX right before JetBlue announcement would indicate that B6 give them some type of heads up here and didn't piss off AA completely.


AA isn't "allowing" anything. MIA is a common use facility. AA has zero gate leases at MIA.

And there was no illegal heads up given, but this news was leaked a week ago and they probably already knew from that.


I think the partnership between AA and B6 is expanding to more than just codesharing out of NYC/BOS. It wouldn't take much to have some basic level discussions on what an expanded codeshare would look like. What they could codeshare out of MIA would fall in that category.
 
Nicknuzzii
Posts: 1994
Joined: Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:57 pm

Re: Updated: jetBlue to launch Miami - Feb 2021

Fri Dec 18, 2020 1:48 am

ytib wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:

AA isn't "allowing" anything. MIA is a common use facility. AA has zero gate leases at MIA.

And there was no illegal heads up given, but this news was leaked a week ago and they probably already knew from that.



No. MIA would never have consulted AA. That is totally illegal. Would never happen. And AA could never block JetBlue or any other airline from launching MIA. MIA is a public airport. All airlines have the right to serve it, and MIA playing favorites is in violation of antitrust laws. And as a public facility, MIA's directors have a fiduciary duty to work in the best interest of the general public, which means luring as many airlines to compete with AA as possible.


If you don’t believe airports play favorites I suggest you take a look at EWR.


Sounds like this is an opinion, or would you like to share examples with sources?


The PANYNJ and UA have had some secret deals. Don’t recall the time when UA added a flight to South Carolina, conveniently near the PA’s chairman’s vacation home, solely so they could gain more slots? More recently, NK has filed a lawsuit against the DOT because WN’s former slots were never broken up.
 
hbernal1
Posts: 239
Joined: Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:51 pm

Re: Updated: jetBlue to launch Miami - Feb 2021

Fri Dec 18, 2020 1:55 am

Nicknuzzii wrote:
ytib wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:

If you don’t believe airports play favorites I suggest you take a look at EWR.


Sounds like this is an opinion, or would you like to share examples with sources?


The PANYNJ and UA have had some secret deals. Don’t recall the time when UA added a flight to South Carolina, conveniently near the PA’s chairman’s vacation home, solely so they could gain more slots? More recently, NK has filed a lawsuit against the DOT because WN’s former slots were never broken up.

Found the link to the story re the EWR-CAE scandal: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/201 ... /87094180/ - this was the straw that broke the camel's back for Smisek at UA as well.
 
toltommy
Posts: 2809
Joined: Tue Dec 09, 2003 9:04 am

Re: B6 Adds MIA/EYW/SJD/GUA

Fri Dec 18, 2020 1:56 am

Miamiairport wrote:
I was at EWY on Monday and a bunch of suits with JetBlue tags around their necks were walking around with presumably airport management. That little terminal is going to get even more packed.


Haven't been down there since this time last year. Mid-afternoons were insane last year. We came in from ORD, waited 45 minutes for a parking space on the ramp to open up. The gate area on our way out was crazy as well. Nowhere near enough seating at that time of day. Of course, I'd give my right arm to get us back to that kind of demand.

Is there any open ticket counter space? I thought UA got the last open space at the counter.
 
usflyer msp
Posts: 4363
Joined: Tue May 23, 2000 11:50 am

Re: Updated: jetBlue to launch Miami - Feb 2021

Fri Dec 18, 2020 2:03 am

tphuang wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
I'm quite curious about the AA angle here. Sure, they would not like B6 moving into its back yard. But if they allow JetBlue to join them in Concourse E and made the moves to mostly widebodies on MIA-LAX right before JetBlue announcement would indicate that B6 give them some type of heads up here and didn't piss off AA completely.


AA isn't "allowing" anything. MIA is a common use facility. AA has zero gate leases at MIA.

And there was no illegal heads up given, but this news was leaked a week ago and they probably already knew from that.


I think the partnership between AA and B6 is expanding to more than just codesharing out of NYC/BOS. It wouldn't take much to have some basic level discussions on what an expanded codeshare would look like. What they could codeshare out of MIA would fall in that category.


What benefit does AA get from B6 in MIA? There has to be some reciprocity.
 
Brickell305
Posts: 1488
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: Updated: jetBlue to launch Miami - Feb 2021

Fri Dec 18, 2020 2:13 am

usflyer msp wrote:
tphuang wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:

AA isn't "allowing" anything. MIA is a common use facility. AA has zero gate leases at MIA.

And there was no illegal heads up given, but this news was leaked a week ago and they probably already knew from that.


I think the partnership between AA and B6 is expanding to more than just codesharing out of NYC/BOS. It wouldn't take much to have some basic level discussions on what an expanded codeshare would look like. What they could codeshare out of MIA would fall in that category.


What benefit does AA get from B6 in MIA? There has to be some reciprocity.

I was just about to ask this. B6 provides absolutely nothing to AA in MIA. AA has zero incentive to codeshare with them there.
 
tphuang
Posts: 6720
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: Updated: jetBlue to launch Miami - Feb 2021

Fri Dec 18, 2020 2:13 am

usflyer msp wrote:
tphuang wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:

AA isn't "allowing" anything. MIA is a common use facility. AA has zero gate leases at MIA.

And there was no illegal heads up given, but this news was leaked a week ago and they probably already knew from that.


I think the partnership between AA and B6 is expanding to more than just codesharing out of NYC/BOS. It wouldn't take much to have some basic level discussions on what an expanded codeshare would look like. What they could codeshare out of MIA would fall in that category.


What benefit does AA get from B6 in MIA? There has to be some reciprocity.

Please read my post earlier. A wider code share partnership would help AA attract more ff and corporate contract in RDU, AUS, SFO, LAS and places like IND/CMH where B6 will probably enter in the future. Just think about AA's attractiveness if they can offer more leisure flying, BOS and all 3 NYC airports.
Last edited by tphuang on Fri Dec 18, 2020 2:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
Brickell305
Posts: 1488
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: Updated: jetBlue to launch Miami - Feb 2021

Fri Dec 18, 2020 2:14 am

MAH4546 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
I'm quite curious about the AA angle here. Sure, they would not like B6 moving into its back yard. But if they allow JetBlue to join them in Concourse E and made the moves to mostly widebodies on MIA-LAX right before JetBlue announcement would indicate that B6 give them some type of heads up here and didn't piss off AA completely.


AA isn't "allowing" anything. MIA is a common use facility. AA has zero gate leases at MIA.

And there was no illegal heads up given, but this news was leaked a week ago and they probably already knew from that.

Brickell305 wrote:
In theory, AA doesn’t have direct say in who goes where. AA doesn’t own or lease gates at MIA and all gates are common use. However, I do find it unlikely that the airport wouldn’t have consulted AA. Would AA have been able to block them? Most likely not but I can’t help but think they were probably consulted and didn’t note any objection.


No. MIA would never have consulted AA. That is totally illegal. Would never happen. And AA could never block JetBlue or any other airline from launching MIA. MIA is a public airport. All airlines have the right to serve it, and MIA playing favorites is in violation of antitrust laws. And as a public facility, MIA's directors have a fiduciary duty to work in the best interest of the general public, which means luring as many airlines to compete with AA as possible.

Noted and I stand corrected.
 
slcdeltarumd11
Posts: 5247
Joined: Fri Jan 09, 2004 7:30 am

Re: B6 Adds MIA/EYW/SJD/GUA

Fri Dec 18, 2020 2:15 am

Wow starting service to key West for JetBlue has to be the kiss of death for silver airways doesn't it? Key West I think unquestionably was their best city and those flights seemed like they were at least half JetBlue people connecting. I feel like that has to be a huge blow to them. No idea how they are still afloat.
 
Cointrin330
Posts: 2268
Joined: Sat Jul 16, 2016 12:23 pm

Re: B6 Adds MIA/EYW/SJD/GUA

Fri Dec 18, 2020 2:25 am

2eng2efficient wrote:
Based on these routes, the AA/B6 relationship certainly seems to have a “frenemies” dynamic... At least nobody can accuse them of collusion.


I don't see the AA/B6 partnership ever taking off. There's really no upside to either airline for it. B6 doesn't need AA and I suspect AA will not get the traffic it needs with B6, at least at JFK, to fill its 777s to Europe and Latin America. Connectivity at JFK will be a PITA even with air side shuttle buses.The only way I see these two collaborating is through a merger.
 
DeltaRules
Posts: 5426
Joined: Sat Sep 01, 2001 11:57 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Dec 18, 2020 2:29 am

Midwestindy wrote:
BA744PHX wrote:
TWA85 wrote:

I think you might be right. If their RDU and BNA growth works, I wonder if they would consider doing the same in CMH, IND, MCI, PIT, and/or STL.


Highly unlikely, RDU & BNA maybe small but they are growing markets. That cannot be said for CMH, MCI, IND, PIT & STL


The clip IND is growing at isn't far behind BNA or RDU, according to the US Census from 2018 to 2019 IND was #20 for metro growth, BNA & RDU were ranked #16 & #17.
https://www.census.gov/content/census/e ... areas.html

Although yes, PIT & STL experienced negative population growth

Not arguing that any of those are ripe for a B6 "focus" operation though.


And CMH is similar to IND at 25th.

Still, it'd be nice if B6 remembered the Midwest exists.

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