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My predictions for this year (announcements, not necessarily start in 2020).

From JFK - I'm assuming here JFK slot constraints stay in place and they are unable to get more good slots from anyone.
GUA/UIO/SAL - Looks like GUA is a done deal already. SAL I think will get announced also. UIO is a little iffy. Not sure if high altitude will allow this to happen. If they add these, then their Latin America VFR network out of JFK is complete.
BNA - I'm going to predict again that JFK-BNA will get added this year with 2 flights.
EYW - Another route enabled by A220. Probably a couple of flights a week in winter time.
BZN - Another route I think will be enabled by A220. Once a week in winter time.
Possible cuts to fund this and the European flights
PWM
SAV
RNO
HAV - why is this still daily? Should be made 1x per week on Saturday.
More frequencies on these routes.
SFO - this I think will get a 7th mint flight to be competitive with DL.
ATL - I think a 3rd flight

From EWR - again, depend on if FAA will allow for flights to be added in peak days.
ACK - Obvious add here for summer time.
KIN - one flight here year round
FLL/MCO - more flights to balance out the reductions at LGA

HPN-MVY - another obvious add here for summer time if HPN-ACK did well.

From FLL, adding
SEA/GUA/SAL/IND/CMH - Lucky to see 3 of these get added. SEA with mint, probably one of IND/CMH if either city gets added. Probably one of GUA/SAL (more likely GUA).
More frequencies on
LAX (5th flight), ORD, ATL, MSY, CHS, CLE, AUS
Upgauging on
RDU, RIC, BDL and DCA
No major cuts.
I'm operating under the assumption that BOS remains the primary growth center so growth at FLL is still subpar. Keep in mind, FLL has been more or less stagnant this past year due to Cuba/MEX cuts and BOS expansion.

From MCO, adding
SFO for 2021.
No other major changes outside of more upgauging to northeast market. I expect more A321s to DCA.

From SJU, no new routes. More frequencies + upgauging on existing routes.

From LA Basin, possible shift off LGB-JFK/BOS flights to SNA once A220 is available in sufficient quantities. Not sure if that's 2021 or 2022.
LGB survives another year while B6 waits for more gates at LAX.

And now for the large changes at BOS. Expect them to get close to 200 flights sometimes in 2020 and reach that in March 2021 at latest. Once they get there, announcement for BOS250 when they announce the schedule/destination of London flight along with the 4 new gates + access to E gates. They should reach close to 40% domestic market share by end of 2020.
New routes:
IND/CMH/STL/SDF/MEM - I expect one to two of these to be announced
BZN - Saturday service here in winter time
EYW - Saturday service here also in winter time with A220-300
PTP - Saturday service here in winter time
Cuts:
PSP - Can't see how this lasts much longer
Longer season for seasonals:
PDX - this goes year round with arrival of A220
SMF, OAK
More frequencies
EWR, PHL, ORD - I know they are already adding frequencies here for 2020, but more will be announced for 2021. I expect schedule to get closer to AA/UA on these routes. Shuttle like service to LGA, EWR, PHL, ORD and DCA.
LGA - big guess here, they get a couple of slots as part of divestiture from DL/WS JV and add those to fill up gaps on this shuttle to match AA schedule.
IAH, DFW - add 1 or 2 to both of these routes.
Aircraft changes
- more A321s for BOS-Florida/SJU/island markets
- all SFO flights become mint
- first A220 station will be AUS and BWI. This will be followed by PDX, MSY, ATL, MSP, BNA, IAH and DFW

More changes I hope to see.
- more mint flights that are of 16J variety. Maybe the mint 2.0 config can be used for JFK-LAX/SFO market.
- Shifting all the A321CEO to shorter flights like Northeast to Florida. Have longer flights operated by A321NEO to utilize the efficiency at longer range + having pantry in use.

tphuang wrote:

And now for the large changes at BOS. Expect them to get close to 200 flights sometimes in 2020 and reach that in March 2021 at latest. Once they get there, announcement for BOS250 when they announce the schedule/destination of London flight along with the 4 new gates + access to E gates. They should reach close to 40% domestic market share by end of 2020.
New routes:
IND/CMH/STL/SDF/MEM - I expect one to two of these to be announced

B6 adding BOS-CVG is also a possibility since
(a) CVG is the only DL hub or focus city airport that B6 doesn't currently serve nonstop from CVG,
(b) CVG is one of the top destinations out of BOS that isn't currently served by B6,
and
(c) BOS-CVG is one of the top routes out of BOS that doesn't currently have nonstop competition (even though AA, UA, and WN all already offer 1-stop connecting service to CVG from BOS through at least one East Coast hub).

If B6 does enter the CVG market, B6 adding CVG-JFK nonstop service might be a possibility with F9 no longer serving LGA nonstop from CVG and with AA making some cuts at JFK. B6 adding CVG-FLL nonstop service is also a possibility if B6 adds service to CVG with B6 already serving FLL nonstop from ORD and CLE in the Midwest.

B6 adding BOS-ORF nonstop service is also a possibility with BOS-ORF being one of the top domestic routes out of BOS that isn't currently served by B6.

Does anyone know how many gates B6 will have once they move to the new Mid Field Concourse at LAX?

Would their upcoming A220s have any particular impact?

tphuang wrote:

My predictions for this year (announcements, not necessarily start in 2020).

From JFK - I'm assuming here JFK slot constraints stay in place and they are unable to get more good slots from anyone.
GUA/UIO/SAL - Looks like GUA is a done deal already. SAL I think will get announced also. UIO is a little iffy. Not sure if high altitude will allow this to happen. If they add these, then their Latin America VFR network out of JFK is complete.
BNA - I'm going to predict again that JFK-BNA will get added this year with 2 flights.
EYW - Another route enabled by A220. Probably a couple of flights a week in winter time.
BZN - Another route I think will be enabled by A220. Once a week in winter time.
Possible cuts to fund this and the European flights
PWM
SAV
RNO
HAV - why is this still daily? Should be made 1x per week on Saturday.
More frequencies on these routes.
SFO - this I think will get a 7th mint flight to be competitive with DL.
ATL - I think a 3rd flight

From EWR - again, depend on if FAA will allow for flights to be added in peak days.
ACK - Obvious add here for summer time.
KIN - one flight here year round
FLL/MCO - more flights to balance out the reductions at LGA

HPN-MVY - another obvious add here for summer time if HPN-ACK did well.

From FLL, adding
SEA/GUA/SAL/IND/CMH - Lucky to see 3 of these get added. SEA with mint, probably one of IND/CMH if either city gets added. Probably one of GUA/SAL (more likely GUA).
More frequencies on
LAX (5th flight), ORD, ATL, MSY, CHS, CLE, AUS
Upgauging on
RDU, RIC, BDL and DCA
No major cuts.
I'm operating under the assumption that BOS remains the primary growth center so growth at FLL is still subpar. Keep in mind, FLL has been more or less stagnant this past year due to Cuba/MEX cuts and BOS expansion.

From MCO, adding
SFO for 2021.
No other major changes outside of more upgauging to northeast market. I expect more A321s to DCA.

From SJU, no new routes. More frequencies + upgauging on existing routes.

From LA Basin, possible shift off LGB-JFK/BOS flights to SNA once A220 is available in sufficient quantities. Not sure if that's 2021 or 2022.
LGB survives another year while B6 waits for more gates at LAX.

And now for the large changes at BOS. Expect them to get close to 200 flights sometimes in 2020 and reach that in March 2021 at latest. Once they get there, announcement for BOS250 when they announce the schedule/destination of London flight along with the 4 new gates + access to E gates. They should reach close to 40% domestic market share by end of 2020.
New routes:
IND/CMH/STL/SDF/MEM - I expect one to two of these to be announced
BZN - Saturday service here in winter time
EYW - Saturday service here also in winter time with A220-300
PTP - Saturday service here in winter time
Cuts:
PSP - Can't see how this lasts much longer
Longer season for seasonals:
PDX - this goes year round with arrival of A220
SMF, OAK
More frequencies
EWR, PHL, ORD - I know they are already adding frequencies here for 2020, but more will be announced for 2021. I expect schedule to get closer to AA/UA on these routes. Shuttle like service to LGA, EWR, PHL, ORD and DCA.
LGA - big guess here, they get a couple of slots as part of divestiture from DL/WS JV and add those to fill up gaps on this shuttle to match AA schedule.
IAH, DFW - add 1 or 2 to both of these routes.
Aircraft changes
- more A321s for BOS-Florida/SJU/island markets
- all SFO flights become mint
- first A220 station will be AUS and BWI. This will be followed by PDX, MSY, ATL, MSP, BNA, IAH and DFW

More changes I hope to see.
- more mint flights that are of 16J variety. Maybe the mint 2.0 config can be used for JFK-LAX/SFO market.
- Shifting all the A321CEO to shorter flights like Northeast to Florida. Have longer flights operated by A321NEO to utilize the efficiency at longer range + having pantry in use.

Great predictions. Keep in mind the A220 won’t really ramp up until 2021-2022. B6 is only taking one in 2020.

Really confused about LGA-FLL/MCO going 2x daily in favor of BOS-LGA. Is a half empty E190 to BOS really more profitable than a full A321 to Florida?

juan885 wrote:

Really confused about LGA-FLL/MCO going 2x daily in favor of BOS-LGA. Is a half empty E190 to BOS really more profitable than a full A321 to Florida?

Sometimes it's not quite all about profitability, that even applies to DL and others. In this case B6 is trying to defend it's turf in BOS, it is trying to be as relevant as possible to the NYC market, by covering all 3 major airports and getting as much service into LGA that they can. They have a finite amount of aircraft, particularly on the E190 side, so it had to come from somewhere to do that. hence the cut of FLL/MCO to compensate. Is it the right move, only time will tell and the finance folks will gauge that. Maybe it will switch back at somepoint if it doesn't work, but for now, this one has probably taken the path of need for the airline over absolute profitability. In reality if they can make more money from the revamped 320's (12 extra seats per flight) and more of the all-core 321's (200 seats) plus the other revenue generators, it might allow them a bit of latitude to do things like this without Wall St. getting upset.

Yes, those A220 predictions are more about what they will announce in 2020 rather than what they will start to operate. Even so, I'm probably overly optimistic about what they can operate by summer of 2021.

As for LGA, the thought process is that 6x daily BOS-LGA is a huge money loser due to the weak schedule vs DL/AA. 10x daily will allow them to capture more higher yielding last minute bookings and also help them with corporate contract and FF. The gains from that outweighs the losses from Florida flights. I'm not a fan of going with 2x on FLL/MCO/PBI. I think having 4x FLL is probably necessary and then they just have to live with operating MCO strictly out of JFK/EWR. Those leisure routes of LGA-MCO/PBI aren't as dependent on schedule like LGA-BOS. If they get more slots at LGA, I'd prefer to see them operate more business routes to DCA or ORD rather than more Florida routes. They have basically the most convenient space for business travelers at LGA. It's not a great terminal for A321/Florida flights due to lack of seating and public transportation.

JFK is probably just as convenient for people going to Florida via the airtrain.

I wonder if B6 might add PVD-RSW & TPA as way to capitalize on their strength in the greater BOS region, similar to them adding PVD-PBI last year.

Given the recent Iran news and possible higher (maybe much higher) fuel prices over the next few months, I started to take a look at which airlines would be most affected by higher fuel prices. I took at the most recent earnings report and divided CASMex by CASM, to see which airlines have the highest portion of CASM as fuel cost. The higher the portion that's fuel cost, the more a 25% jump in fuel prices would hurt the CASM for that airline. I didn't look at WN since they fuel hedge aggressively and actually benefit from rising fuel prices.

here is the results:
NK - 5.66 vs 8.03 -> 70.5%
B6 - 8.33 vs 11.29 -> 73.8%
AA - 11.07 vs 14.33 -> 77.2%
DL - 9.84 vs 13.85 -> 71.0%
UA - 9.8 vs 13.2 -> 74.2%
AS - 8.43 vs 11.23 -> 75.1%

Not a surprise here that NK has the largest portion of its CASM as non-fuel and AA has the highest. AA relly has a lot to work on in terms of cost control. So in the even of a fuel crisis, NK should suffer the most and AA should suffer the least. My guess is that other ULCCs would have the similar ratio of fuel cost as NK. The surprising part is how much of DL's cost are from fuel cost. I guess that's due to operating a lot of older aircraft. B6 is right in the middle of the park there, although UA has the advantage of having a fuel hedge in IAH. Adding extra A321NEO and reconfiguring A320s to have 12 more seat will probably improve B6's fuel efficiency a little bit, but I'd expect their ratio to not change too much.

So what does this mean for them? Well in FLL/MCO, they could face a more stubborn WN, but a less aggressive NK/F9. In BOS, things might ease up a little bit given that DL's large regional operation would probably get affected by higher fuel prices more than new mainline aircraft. In JFK where DL has a much larger mainline operation, things will more or less be the same.

nine4nine wrote:

Does anyone know how many gates B6 will have once they move to the new Mid Field Concourse at LAX?

Latest update sound like 3 with the first rights use up to 5 total if needed.
With European dreams on and minds of B6 management LAX will probably stay it's course of Just feeding its core marketshare JFK,BOS and FLL.

LGB will also stay it's course Just making just enough money to keep it alive.
SNA service with the A220 is at least over 1 to 2 years away.
New entrants to SNA only receive 2 Slots.
I'm gonna guess they would probably just run two 21:00 redeye departures to BOS and JFK.
They could easily just drop the Red eyes from LGB freeing up the gate space in BOS and JFK for a more lucrative SNA service.

Flyguy

Alright, Q3 data is out. From the numbers I've seen so far, JFK seemed to have a decent quarter and BOS did well in some markets also. FLL was really bad on the routes i looked at. Anyways, here at the mint routes.

First of all, the all important NYC-LAX market
CityPair Dist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare % NS PerFlight Departures LF Yield PRASM
JFKLAX 2475 AA 171651 623.09 634.53 349.01 95.99% 102.0 1852 90.83% 576.37 0.2329
JFKLAX 2475 AS 139463 259.50 258.98 338.59 99.35% 175.5 902 88.12% 228.21 0.0922
JFKLAX 2475 B6 272902 353.73 353.81 321.67 99.76% 159.0 1895 90.57% 320.46 0.1295
JFKLAX 2475 DL 332729 416.60 414.82 504.26 98.01% 223.8 1620 91.76% 380.65 0.1538
EWRLAX 2454 AS 84656 266.29 265.50 384.57 99.34% 175.3 536 90.11% 239.25 0.0975
EWRLAX 2454 UA 386176 350.84 348.37 541.54 98.72% 202.9 2050 92.82% 323.37 0.1318

I see this as a pretty good quarter for B6 actually (or at least better than last quarter). They've reduced the far gap with both AA/DL. In fact, they had higher fare than UA this quarter (first in a long time) and only had slightly lower yield due to LF. This is despite adding that 11th flight at really terrible hours. You will see that they had more flight than AA this quarter. This might be the first time that has happened. It seems to me AA is slowly losing out here despite arguably the best product and stronger LAX hub. I do wish to see how well they'd do if they can add the 11th flight at a better time.

Next the NYC-SFO market.
JFKSFO 2586 AA 72187 587.96 593.08 473.19 95.73% 102.0 816 86.73% 514.38 0.1989
JFKSFO 2586 AS 114546 251.29 250.34 312.95 98.49% 177.5 721 89.50% 224.05 0.0866
JFKSFO 2586 B6 149699 349.44 349.21 438.90 99.74% 159.0 1063 88.57% 309.29 0.1196
JFKSFO 2586 DL 190660 397.47 393.43 570.56 97.72% 169.5 1242 90.57% 356.33 0.1378
EWRSFO 2565 AS 83360 247.72 246.47 352.74 98.82% 174.4 539 88.66% 218.52 0.0852
EWRSFO 2565 UA 507869 384.39 378.25 604.38 97.28% 219.3 2536 91.34% 345.48 0.1347
This seems to another case of both B6/DL gaining a little bit at AA's expense. Interesting how the average fare here for B6 is almost as high as JFK-LAX. This indicates having a 7th flight is easily doable. Also, that's a much smaller gap vs UA in average fare than previous quarters. The gap between B6/DL is consistent.

So at least in the 2 largest premium market, it would seem like AA has been declining in both and DL initially in 2016 to early 2018 had been gaining in both markets vs B6 and others. In the past year, it seems like B6 has also picked up some of that AA declines, which allowed them to close the yield gap with AA's very high cost A321T and even with UA over at EWR.

BOSSFO 2704 AS 46638 283.21 281.17 355.84 97.28% 158.0 352 83.85% 235.75 0.0872 70.68%
BOSSFO 2704 B6 126670 369.35 369.14 425.71 99.63% 158.4 885 90.36% 333.57 0.1234 100.00%
BOSSFO 2704 DL 52087 292.55 288.21 370.13 94.70% 198.3 289 90.89% 261.94 0.0969 78.53%
BOSSFO 2704 UA 173228 397.62 393.81 543.49 97.46% 153.0 1239 91.35% 359.76 0.1330 107.85%
The good news here for B6 is that they are really gaining on UA here. That's the smallest yield gap between B6/UA that I have seen. That's also the highest yield I've seen B6 here since a couple of years back when DL entered the market and UA started running lie flat here. it's interesting that UA has now gone to narrowbodies exclusively here and B6 has still managed to close gap. There should be an all-core A321 for B6 here in Q4, so that will change things a little bit. In terms of capacity, it seems like this market could support more.

BOSLAX 2611 AA 132849 297.69 294.17 370.12 95.37% 163.3 899 90.52% 266.27 0.1020 88.52%
BOSLAX 2611 AS 41249 248.75 248.21 289.22 98.70% 156.1 297 89.00% 220.91 0.0846 73.44%
BOSLAX 2611 B6 102609 330.69 330.49 368.18 99.48% 159.0 709 91.02% 300.82 0.1152 100.00%
BOSLAX 2611 DL 77586 323.81 322.19 345.04 92.89% 168.3 493 93.49% 301.22 0.1154 100.13%
BOSLAX 2611 UA 56020 317.16 317.08 317.93 90.76% 172.1 374 87.02% 275.93 0.1057 91.73%
Another market that's pretty constant YoY. This was also probably the highest yielding quarter here for a while. It seems like both AA/UA moved away from lie flat here toward the end of the quarter, which contributed to B6's large premium over them. Not really sure how much longer AS will last here. They are clearly not competitive at all.

FLLLAX 2343 AS 22065 217.86 217.00 443.17 99.62% 152.7 181 79.81% 173.19 0.0739
FLLLAX 2343 B6 89763 300.92 300.87 333.65 99.86% 159.0 656 86.07% 258.97 0.1105
MIALAX 2342 AA 248776 313.74 311.51 370.60 96.21% 195.1 1401 91.03% 283.57 0.1211
This is quite interesting. As I said, tough quarter for FLL all the way around in overall yield. Q3 is normally the hardest quarter for South Florida and this Q3 was really bad. Note that B6 went up to 4x daily here. Looks like the market did have somewhat of a hard time absorbing that. Looking at AS's performance on FLL-LAX, it's no wonder they have made it seasonal.

FLLSFO 2584 B6 51379 310.12 309.96 387.75 99.80% 159.0 363 89.02% 275.93 0.1068
FLLSFO 2584 UA 25130 270.13 263.13 340.49 90.96% 174.6 182 79.09% 208.11 0.0805
MIASFO 2585 AA 109316 299.72 298.06 329.93 94.80% 179.5 673 90.51% 269.78 0.1044
They seem to be doing better on FLL-SFO now. Again, that is terrible yield from UA on FLL-SFO. Not sure what they are still doing on this route. That kind of numbers is simply unsustainable.

So, it looks like as B6 adds flight, their yield go down a little bit. But let's wait a couple of more quarters to see how the market will adjust.

Alright, the rest of mint markets.
CityPair Dist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare % NS PerFlight Departures LF Yield PRASM
JFKSAN 2446 B6 56446 334.25 334.23 338.60 99.63% 157.9 416 85.91% 287.14 0.1174 100.00%
JFKSAN 2446 DL 100062 317.40 316.02 358.47 96.75% 182.6 593 92.43% 292.11 0.1194 101.73%
EWRSAN 2425 AS 26537 258.98 257.94 314.97 98.18% 170.2 172 90.67% 233.88 0.0964
EWRSAN 2425 UA 80568 352.37 348.82 434.41 95.85% 166.5 533 90.79% 316.70 0.1306
EWRSAN 2425 WN 1032 251.63 249.45 255.46 63.85% 155.0 8 83.23% 207.61 0.0856
This one did a little better than I thought they would. They added an extra A320 in Sep/Oct (both very low LF month), which explains why their LF was that much lower than DL here. Their fares are still quite a bit higher than DL despite the A320 in Sep. Will be interesting to see how the 3rd mint flight works out. The market can certainly support this with AA's absence. I'm actually surprised the yields aren't even higher here without AA

BOSSAN 2588 AS 23554 292.21 290.92 339.83 97.37% 150.1 177 88.67% 257.96 0.0997 89.05%
BOSSAN 2588 B6 72258 323.66 323.82 290.56 99.52% 159.0 508 89.46% 289.69 0.1119 100.00%
This one was a little more disappointing. They did have a 3rd flight here for most of the Q3 with mint for part of it and A320 for other part. I interpret this as BOS-SAN market unable to handle more than 32 lie flat seats a day. Which is probably which B6 added all-core A321 and A320 here for next summer. This should become quite a bloodbath.

JFKSEA 2422 AS 92051 287.81 287.12 322.61 98.05% 178.8 551 93.41% 268.20 0.1107 94.69%
JFKSEA 2422 B6 50075 322.49 321.96 601.10 99.81% 159.0 358 87.97% 283.23 0.1169 100.00%
JFKSEA 2422 DL 150170 339.25 335.77 467.59 97.35% 177.4 909 93.14% 312.72 0.1291 110.41%
EWRSEA 2402 AS 83505 313.31 312.81 349.93 98.64% 175.0 515 92.67% 289.87 0.1207 N/A
EWRSEA 2402 UA 104039 310.87 310.43 318.75 94.69% 160.6 701 92.42% 286.89 0.1194 N/A
This was easily the strongest quarter B6 had on JFK-SEA ever. That is also the smallest gap in Fares between B6 and DL I can remember on this route. Interesting how AS does so much better out of EWR than JFK. Also, this is the largest gap between B6 and AS in fare and yield since mint entered.

BOSSEA 2496 AS 90970 314.07 313.40 346.21 97.96% 175.8 550 94.07% 294.82 0.1181 99.63%
BOSSEA 2496 B6 51532 329.58 328.68 459.07 99.31% 159.0 360 90.03% 295.92 0.1186 100.00%
BOSSEA 2496 DL 72879 312.38 308.48 362.22 92.75% 160.1 481 94.67% 292.03 0.1170 98.68%
This is more good news for B6 and mint. This is the first quarter B6 had higher fares and yield than both AS and DL. This is also the highest yield I can remember they have ever generated here. I think this is a good evidence of mint slowly winning over ff on this route over AS especially. It wasn't that far back that AS dominated the yields here. We are going to see one extra flight from each carrier next summer. It's certainly doing well enough to support that.

JFKLAS 2248 AA 26538 258.93 255.07 270.98 75.76% 162.2 190 86.12% 219.67 0.0977 86.80%
JFKLAS 2248 B6 101008 278.50 278.54 273.80 99.08% 167.7 663 90.85% 253.07 0.1126 100.00%
JFKLAS 2248 DL 142556 314.40 313.19 427.76 98.94% 177.8 864 92.81% 290.67 0.1293 114.86%
AA is continuing to get wiped out on this route. The gap in fares between B6 and DL is pretty consistent here. A very profitable route for B6 considering that all -core A321 and A320 are also on here. Also keep in mind that they were only running 1 mint flight here for large parts of Sep/Oct.

BOSLAS 2381 B6 101597 259.73 259.52 339.46 99.73% 158.5 735 87.20% 226.31 0.0950 100.00%
BOSLAS 2381 DL 25703 267.76 263.72 316.74 92.37% 162.1 182 87.11% 229.74 0.0965 101.51%
I'm still a little disappointed to see that B6 has not surpassed DL in yield here. Generally, it does seem like mint hasn't achieved the premium yield here like it has in other markets.

tphuang wrote:

Alright, the rest of mint markets.
BOSSEA 2496 AS 90970 314.07 313.40 346.21 97.96% 175.8 550 94.07% 294.82 0.1181 99.63%
BOSSEA 2496 B6 51532 329.58 328.68 459.07 99.31% 159.0 360 90.03% 295.92 0.1186 100.00%
BOSSEA 2496 DL 72879 312.38 308.48 362.22 92.75% 160.1 481 94.67% 292.03 0.1170 98.68%
This is more good news for B6 and mint. This is the first quarter B6 had higher fares and yield than both AS and DL. This is also the highest yield I can remember they have ever generated here. I think this is a good evidence of mint slowly winning over ff on this route over AS especially. It wasn't that far back that AS dominated the yields here. We are going to see one extra flight from each carrier next summer. It's certainly doing well enough to support that.

About time! The previous yield differences never really made sense.

Alright, some more non-premium transcons to look at.

First for the JFK ones
CityPair Dist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare % NS PerFlight Departures LF Yield PRASM Vs B6
JFKONT 2429 B6 23816 246.08 246.08 0.00 100.00% 150.0 170 93.40% 229.83 0.0946 100.00%
JFKBUR 2465 B6 44421 257.75 257.68 350.00 99.92% 150.1 323 91.64% 236.14 0.0958 100.00%
JFKLGB 2465 B6 45935 255.51 253.83 350.17 98.26% 150.0 339 90.33% 229.29 0.0930 100.00%
JFKPHX 2153 AA 116833 263.24 260.25 353.69 96.80% 170.0 770 89.25% 232.27 0.1079 124.41%
JFKPHX 2153 B6 23640 217.29 216.93 334.06 99.70% 150.1 183 86.06% 186.70 0.0867 100.00%
JFKPHX 2153 DL 65553 261.88 257.75 406.49 97.23% 171.7 429 89.01% 229.42 0.1066 122.88%
JFKSMF 2521 B6 33207 233.74 233.32 270.96 98.88% 200.0 183 90.73% 211.69 0.0840 100.00%
JFKSJC 2569 AS 26603 235.26 234.46 281.52 98.29% 160.0 182 91.33% 214.13 0.0834 105.63%
JFKSJC 2569 B6 24254 223.65 223.17 301.52 99.38% 150.0 178 90.84% 202.73 0.0789 100.00%
JFKSJC 2569 DL 29753 276.90 268.60 397.34 93.55% 180.0 182 90.84% 244.00 0.0950 120.36%
JFKOAK 2576 B6 22722 243.09 241.58 314.83 97.93% 150.1 169 89.55% 216.33 0.0840 100.00%
JFKRNO 2411 B6 21062 246.79 244.85 457.60 99.09% 150.0 160 87.76% 214.88 0.0891 100.00%
JFKPDX 2454 AS 28403 231.58 226.78 307.72 94.06% 170.9 182 91.32% 207.09 0.0844 104.89%
JFKPDX 2454 B6 23181 223.90 224.00 187.17 99.73% 150.3 175 88.14% 197.43 0.0805 100.00%
JFKPDX 2454 DL 73960 304.50 301.82 362.01 95.55% 179.8 445 92.43% 278.98 0.1137 141.31%
JFKSLC 1990 B6 48678 211.94 210.95 400.69 99.48% 151.3 363 88.65% 187.01 0.0940 100.00%
JFKSLC 1990 DL 134051 320.65 316.98 462.38 97.47% 182.8 809 90.66% 287.37 0.1444 153.66%

My thoughts are the JFK to secondary LA Basin market is going really well. Even ONT is showing very healthy yield. BUR continues to be the strongest performer among the non-mint transcons. Would be interesting to see if they would put mint here in the future considering that they are already scheduling in all-core A321NEOs here. SMF is another market that does really well considering that it got all-core A321 for all of Q3. It's a market that can support even more flight in summer time. Although, I doubt they would add more. PDX/SJC/PHX are all market they continue to struggle with in 3 way markets. Maybe they need a little more off-peak cuts in Sep/Oct. That second SLC flight seems to be going reasonable well given that this is the low season. RNO/OAK both did better than expected (definitely better than last year)

other ones
BOSBUR 2601 B6 12020 227.32 224.80 282.70 95.65% 158.7 87 87.05% 195.69 0.0752 100.00%
BOSLGB 2602 B6 25810 260.85 259.96 306.41 98.08% 152.9 183 92.24% 239.79 0.0922 100.00%
BOSPHX 2300 AA 113968 288.71 287.91 296.89 91.15% 177.0 695 92.63% 266.70 0.1160 129.99%
BOSPHX 2300 B6 25815 226.07 225.86 244.44 98.86% 156.1 182 90.84% 205.17 0.0892 100.00%
BOSSMF 2636 B6 17246 243.28 243.46 240.69 93.45% 158.5 120 90.66% 220.73 0.0837 100.00%
BOSSJC 2689 B6 22392 288.21 288.18 290.00 98.54% 150.4 167 89.13% 256.86 0.0955 100.00%
BOSSLC 2105 B6 23938 213.46 211.94 252.34 96.22% 158.6 163 92.58% 196.21 0.0932 100.00%
BOSSLC 2105 DL 78956 313.73 312.79 325.05 92.33% 190.6 444 93.28% 291.78 0.1386 148.71%
FLLLAS 2173 B6 24745 234.94 233.08 496.88 99.30% 153.8 182 88.43% 206.11 0.0948 100.00%
FLLLAS 2173 WN 19858 220.77 217.45 233.20 78.90% 156.4 141 90.05% 195.83 0.0901 95.01%
FLLSAN 2269 B6 21225 207.79 207.75 224.08 99.79% 152.0 159 87.80% 182.41 0.0804 100.00%
MCOLAX 2218 AA 97866 230.90 229.48 270.95 96.58% 189.8 567 90.96% 208.73 0.0941 125.18%
MCOLAX 2218 B6 17002 192.15 190.72 283.93 98.47% 156.8 124 87.43% 166.74 0.0752 100.00%
MCOLAX 2218 DL 89866 236.70 235.30 251.71 91.50% 190.8 506 93.09% 219.05 0.0988 131.37%
MCOLAX 2218 UA 39459 225.39 225.10 227.85 89.35% 156.4 282 89.48% 201.41 0.0908 120.79%
BUFLAX 2218 B6 24116 244.92 243.68 307.49 98.06% 153.2 171 92.06% 224.34 0.1011 100.00%
MCOSLC 1931 B6 21933 161.90 161.81 177.11 99.44% 150.1 167 87.47% 141.54 0.0733 100.00%
MCOSLC 1931 DL 82842 238.22 235.49 266.78 91.25% 196.8 451 93.35% 219.82 0.1138 155.30%
BOSPDX 2537 AS 54084 320.26 319.92 331.77 97.09% 162.2 365 91.35% 292.26 0.1152 123.52%
BOSPDX 2537 B6 40940 254.46 254.80 233.00 98.42% 158.6 278 92.86% 236.61 0.0933 100.00%
FLLSLC 2084 B6 21755 186.41 186.22 217.03 99.38% 155.8 166 84.13% 156.66 0.0752 100.00%
FLLSLC 2084 DL 25386 253.44 226.69 338.35 76.05% 160.4 179 88.40% 200.39 0.0962 127.91%

So BOS-SJC seems to be high performer here. That second flight makes a lot of sense. BOS-PHX continues to be a struggle in what is a low season. BOS-BUR numbers improved a little bit, but the numbers are still not great for a service that than 3x weekly.
Aside from BOS, FLL numbers as a whole just seem to be down this quarter. They did reasonably well against competition. Maybe on FLL-SLC, DL will move it to MIA at some point. MCO transcon continues to be a huge bloodbath. BUF-LAX did surprisingly great in Q3.

tphuang wrote:

Another market that's pretty constant YoY. This was also probably the highest yielding quarter here for a while. It seems like both AA/UA moved away from lie flat here toward the end of the quarter, which contributed to B6's large premium over them. Not really sure how much longer AS will last here. They are clearly not competitive at all.

This is quite interesting. As I said, tough quarter for FLL all the way around in overall yield. Q3 is normally the hardest quarter for South Florida and this Q3 was really bad. Note that B6 went up to 4x daily here. Looks like the market did have somewhat of a hard time absorbing that. Looking at AS's performance on FLL-LAX, it's no wonder they have made it seasonal.

UA is only running lay flat 757 on the LAX-BOS red-eye and morning Westbound. The other daily flight is on a 900.

As for FLL, the AS times, especially Westbound aren't that great. VX had a noonish departure to both directions which would capture a lot of cruise pax. I also think there's a big hole in the B6 schedule. They should think of re-timing 700 to leave a few hours earlier for better Caribbean connections and they should re-time 701 to noonish departure out of FLL to get cruise pax. Otherwise it's a long sit waiting for 101.

tphuang wrote:

Alright, the rest of mint markets.

BOSLAS 2381 B6 101597 259.73 259.52 339.46 99.73% 158.5 735 87.20% 226.31 0.0950 100.00%
BOSLAS 2381 DL 25703 267.76 263.72 316.74 92.37% 162.1 182 87.11% 229.74 0.0965 101.51%
I'm still a little disappointed to see that B6 has not surpassed DL in yield here. Generally, it does seem like mint hasn't achieved the premium yield here like it has in other markets.

Was NK On BOS-LAS in Q3-2019?

adamh8297 wrote:

tphuang wrote:

Alright, the rest of mint markets.

BOSLAS 2381 B6 101597 259.73 259.52 339.46 99.73% 158.5 735 87.20% 226.31 0.0950 100.00%
BOSLAS 2381 DL 25703 267.76 263.72 316.74 92.37% 162.1 182 87.11% 229.74 0.0965 101.51%
I'm still a little disappointed to see that B6 has not surpassed DL in yield here. Generally, it does seem like mint hasn't achieved the premium yield here like it has in other markets.

Was NK On BOS-LAS in Q3-2019?

It was. I was filtering out ULCCs on the mint markets.

JoseSalazar wrote:

Tphuang,

Do you think B6 would do a lot better on JFK-PHX and BOS-PHX if they had at least 2x daily, or otherwise had better timed flights? I’ve talked to a lot of people on AA flights from PHX-JFK who say they would rather fly on B6 but the times (primarily bc of the redeye) make it a nonstarter. Anecdotal, but I buy that. What do you think?

Most definitely. Especially in winter season. It's a market that should support mint in winter season. A lot of rich retirees going there to play golf.

BOS-PHX is actually going to 2x with a daytime option this summer. It should stick year round. JFK is slot constrained. They will have to want to take PHX market more seriously to add a second flight there.

JoseSalazar wrote:

Tphuang,

Do you think B6 would do a lot better on JFK-PHX and BOS-PHX if they had at least 2x daily, or otherwise had better timed flights? I’ve talked to a lot of people on AA flights from PHX-JFK who say they would rather fly on B6 but the times (primarily bc of the redeye) make it a nonstarter. Anecdotal, but I buy that. What do you think?

Also true for all their other redeye secondary west coast markets (PDX, SMF, OAK, SJC, etc). Not unique to PHX. No one likes redeyes.

Per an inside source, Due to the Iran issues and FAA restrictions now, Jetblue will suspend all code share agreements with Emirates effective immediately. Sorry I just have an email from said person so no link.

FLY

Well... that’s interesting. Dislike for the ME3?

wow, that would be shocking. I wonder what caused this kind of breakup.

If this was true it would not only impact JetBlue. It would prevent, for example, Delta from code sharing with KLM to DXB.

This is not new, it has been in place since 01OCT19 and I am guessing that they are just now extending.

http://help.jetblue.com/SRVS/CGI-BIN/webisapi.dll?New,Kb=askBlue,case=obj(404345)#s21

9/18/2019: UPDATE: Travel Advisory | Iranian Airspace: Codeshare Changes | 01OCT19-28JAN20 - B6EKIRAN19
**UPDATED 18SEP19** | ACTION REQUIRED**

Travel Advisory | Iranian Airspace: B6/EK Codeshare Changes

Background

JetBlue B6* Codeshare Flights Operated by Emirates EK:

Due to FAA airspace restrictions over Iran that prohibit U.S. flight/codeshare flight operations, a selection of JetBlue “B6*” codeshare flights, operated by Emirates “EK”, were originally suspended beginning on 24JUL19. This suspension has now been extended through January 28, 2020. JetBlue is removing impacted codeshare flights and fares from the GDS and travelers will need alternate routings.

Effective travel: October 1, 2019 through January 28, 2020

JetBlue and Emirates have cancelled impacted B6* flights and it is your responsibility to notify travelers and find an alternate option. Customer are not holding alternative space after our Schedule Change, and this is reflected in your PNR. Booking agents must notify travelers and service reservations and tickets per the guidelines below.
Waiver code: B6EKIRAN19

Impacted codeshare flights originate or terminate in: DFW, FLL, IAH, LAX, MCO, ORD, SEA and SFO.

Flights not impacted: BOS, EWR, JFK and IAD

B6* = Marketed by JetBlue, Operated by Emirates

bnatraveler wrote:

This is not new, it has been in place since 01OCT19 and I am guessing that they are just now extending.

http://help.jetblue.com/SRVS/CGI-BIN/webisapi.dll?New,Kb=askBlue,case=obj(404345)#s21

9/18/2019: UPDATE: Travel Advisory | Iranian Airspace: Codeshare Changes | 01OCT19-28JAN20 - B6EKIRAN19
**UPDATED 18SEP19** | ACTION REQUIRED**

Travel Advisory | Iranian Airspace: B6/EK Codeshare Changes

Background

JetBlue B6* Codeshare Flights Operated by Emirates EK:

Due to FAA airspace restrictions over Iran that prohibit U.S. flight/codeshare flight operations, a selection of JetBlue “B6*” codeshare flights, operated by Emirates “EK”, were originally suspended beginning on 24JUL19. This suspension has now been extended through January 28, 2020. JetBlue is removing impacted codeshare flights and fares from the GDS and travelers will need alternate routings.

Effective travel: October 1, 2019 through January 28, 2020

JetBlue and Emirates have cancelled impacted B6* flights and it is your responsibility to notify travelers and find an alternate option. Customer are not holding alternative space after our Schedule Change, and this is reflected in your PNR. Booking agents must notify travelers and service reservations and tickets per the guidelines below.
Waiver code: B6EKIRAN19

Impacted codeshare flights originate or terminate in: DFW, FLL, IAH, LAX, MCO, ORD, SEA and SFO.

Flights not impacted: BOS, EWR, JFK and IAD

B6* = Marketed by JetBlue, Operated by Emirates

This now covers all the routes including the remaining big cities of IAD, JFK, BOS, & EWR.

enilria wrote:

If this was true it would not only impact JetBlue. It would prevent, for example, Delta from code sharing with KLM to DXB.

Why? Does KLM's flight to DXB not conform to FAA airspace restrictions?

tphuang wrote:

CityPair Dist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare % NS PerFlight Departures LF Yield PRASM Vs B6
BUFLAX 2218 B6 24116 244.92 243.68 307.49 98.06% 153.2 171 92.06% 224.34 0.1011 100.00%

BUF-LAX did surprisingly great in Q3.

If i'm reading that right, 92.06% LF and a yield on 0.1011 makes it one of the better non-premium transcons. This flight seems to be regularly doing quite well now.

Along with Etihad as well? or just EK?

Any info on why JFK-BGI has been downsized to the A320 from the daily A321 seems especially strange for the winter season.

JFK PHX had a daylight flight many years ago

To answer your question, Im sure they lose customers because of a garbage schedule to places like DEN and PHX.

The once a day redeye only works when they are the only game in town: SMF RNO etc. If you fly nonstop, you get a redeye

In places with plenty of nonstops, it makes them less desirable


Heard and ugly rumor about West Coast changes coming. We shall see what comes

flyiguy wrote:

Per an inside source, Due to the Iran issues and FAA restrictions now, Jetblue will suspend all code share agreements with Emirates effective immediately. Sorry I just have an email from said person so no link.

FLY

Categorically untrue. You have no source to even prove it because it’s false.

Don't forget PDX. Another place where they have the absolute worst schedule imaginable in terms of arrival into PDX and arrival into JFK.

They might need to beef up JFK-SMF with daytime flight to prevent competition from coming in. It's a market that can support that.

On the once daily market, they are basically just competing against a lot of more convenient one-stop options.

Aside from drawing down LGB, what other major changes can they do? Maybe leaving RNO finally?

jfklganyc wrote:

JFK PHX had a daylight flight many years ago

To answer your question, Im sure they lose customers because of a garbage schedule to places like DEN and PHX.

The once a day redeye only works when they are the only game in town: SMF RNO etc. If you fly nonstop, you get a redeye

In places with plenty of nonstops, it makes them less desirable


Heard and ugly rumor about West Coast changes coming. We shall see what comes

What’s the rumor?

Bluewho wrote:

jfklganyc wrote:

JFK PHX had a daylight flight many years ago

To answer your question, Im sure they lose customers because of a garbage schedule to places like DEN and PHX.

The once a day redeye only works when they are the only game in town: SMF RNO etc. If you fly nonstop, you get a redeye

In places with plenty of nonstops, it makes them less desirable


Heard and ugly rumor about West Coast changes coming. We shall see what comes

What’s the rumor?

Hopefully LAX/SFO- EWR.

Good now maybe the US military and government contract can actually be awarded to an airline that actually flies international aircraft.

JetBlue winning that contract and “code sharing” the lift to Emirates was a complete joke.

catiii wrote:

flyiguy wrote:

Per an inside source, Due to the Iran issues and FAA restrictions now, Jetblue will suspend all code share agreements with Emirates effective immediately. Sorry I just have an email from said person so no link.

FLY

Categorically untrue. You have no source to even prove it because it’s false.

Did you look in the GDS?

tphuang wrote:

BUR continues to be the strongest performer among the non-mint transcons. Would be interesting to see if they would put mint here in the future considering that they are already scheduling in all-core A321NEOs here.

MCO transcon continues to be a huge bloodbath.

The neo only operated 3 times in December to BUR due to erraneous paperwork in Burbank regarding the ramp. They had done work this summer on A7-9 to strengthen the ramp to be able to accomodate the 321 and 900's down on that end, but the airport authority forgot to update their paperwork that it was completed. In addition, the daylight 2358/2359 flights didn't operate from mid-December until today (1/9) with the exception of 1/2. That is the flight that the neo is operating on. 358/359 continue to be a 320.


As for MCO-LAX, the main problem is the timing of the LAX-MCO leg, not leaving LAX until after 4pm. It makes for a brutal arrival in MCO, not getting to a home or hotel until after midnight.

That is the case with a lot of one off B6 red eyes

The garbage timing works for VFR flying to islands

But if they want to get real in between to important markets like LA and Orlando, they need to have a properly time flight for families...forget attracting Business people

Too many markets, it seems like they are in them just to be in them. Little effort, little reward

baje427 wrote:

Any info on why JFK-BGI has been downsized to the A320 from the daily A321 seems especially strange for the winter season.

Looks like a more evened out schedule. The red eye is operating daily now instead of 4xW returning back to JFK at 05:44 am. Also the third Saturday flight is discontinued.

So instead of 8 X A321 and 4 W A320 you now have 14 W A320. Roughly the same seat count.

Meanwhile FLL-BGI is reduced to 3W and retimed as a return back to FLL leaving BGI 5:55 PM instead of morning departure. Seems like they experimenting here.

Since this only applies to codeshare flights why can’t JetBlue and Rmirates convert the impacted routes to an inter line and operate business as usual?

Finally realized no one can carry passenger and two bags for $100 RT and pickup connecting passengers dropped off by partner on a stormy day. Should have listened to Delta.

FAA restriction looks like a decent excuse. USDOT may ask B6 to reroute FlyAmerica passengers, but I doubt they will force to cancel all code-shares.

ryby92 wrote:

baje427 wrote:

Any info on why JFK-BGI has been downsized to the A320 from the daily A321 seems especially strange for the winter season.

Looks like a more evened out schedule. The red eye is operating daily now instead of 4xW returning back to JFK at 05:44 am. Also the third Saturday flight is discontinued.

So instead of 8 X A321 and 4 W A320 you now have 14 W A320. Roughly the same seat count.

Meanwhile FLL-BGI is reduced to 3W and retimed as a return back to FLL leaving BGI 5:55 PM instead of morning departure. Seems like they experimenting here.

Thanks for the explanation.

dtw2hyd wrote:

Finally realized no one can carry passenger and two bags for $100 RT and pickup connecting passengers dropped off by partner on a stormy day. Should have listened to Delta.

FAA restriction looks like a decent excuse. USDOT may ask B6 to reroute FlyAmerica passengers, but I doubt they will force to cancel all code-shares.

This does not only affect B6 and is a federal govt directive related to the Iran mess. The headline is still inaccurate. PLEASE FIX THE HEADLINE.

>The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration said it was barring American pilots and carriers from flying in areas of Iraqi, Iranian and some Persian Gulf airspace. The agency warned of the “potential for miscalculation or mis-identification” for civilian aircraft amid heightened tensions between the U.S. and Iran.

https://time.com/5761084/faa-restricts- ... -missiles/

I wonder if the government traffic to DXB is sufficient to prompt UA to reconsider dropping its service? I seriously doubt it, but at least that was the "reason" cited at the time.

Is all Iraqi airspace closed to US traffic? If so, that would probably negate it.

edealinfo wrote:

Since this only applies to codeshare flights why can’t JetBlue and Rmirates convert the impacted routes to an inter line and operate business as usual?

They are probably still interlining. If you remove the codeshare things may be business as usual for the passenger but behind the scenes things are very different (especially in regards to money between the carriers) and that has to be sorted out. So it would be announced although probably not heavily publicized.

Seems like the FLL-Caribbean stuff is struggling a little, my guess is partly due to the ability to offer connections that work both ways given the limited frequencies (a lot of markets are 1-2x) and limited gates to have true banks.

Sometimes it works in conjunction with MCO for example people can fly PVD-MCO-CUN/AUS/XXX-FLL-PVD but I don't think they actively schedule to make sure those things can always happen.