w3gar
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 24, 2020 5:00 am

Now that Avianca is about to end JFK-SAP in a few weeks, I can see B6 adding this route to their network in the future and do good on it.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 24, 2020 10:55 am

w3gar wrote:
Now that Avianca is about to end JFK-SAP in a few weeks, I can see B6 adding this route to their network in the future and do good on it.

I think it could work on a 4x weekly basis on off-peak and daily basis in peak season on A320. Problem with Honduras is that there is not much business or leisure demand there. B6 seems to be on a row with these JFK VFR routes recently. Still would love to see BOG at some point. Maybe there is still space even with AV/DL already on there.
 
dtremit
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 24, 2020 1:30 pm

SoCalFlyer wrote:
FARmd90 wrote:
VS4ever wrote:

depends on which ones they are, some have 220, some have 214, I know small difference with 6 seats, if they wanted commonality with the rest of the core, maybe they will just block off the last couple of rows, however the leg room isn't going to be so pretty as the regular craft if so.

Even if they were to just block off the last row these particular frames would need a 5th FA. I would think it would be pretty easy to take some seats out and reshuffle the rows for 200 seats and send them flying. Or they would have to track them and make sure a 5th is on board for the flights.


But wouldn’t that require the back galley to be taken out. We had to do that when we went from 190-200 seats on our current A321. It just seems like it would make sense to just keep it as is, until they do a permanent restyle. It would require a 5th inflight Crewmember as you said.


Why would you need to take out a galley to remove seats?
 
dtremit
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 24, 2020 1:32 pm

nine4nine wrote:
Oh good lord I just booked a BUR-JFK run on the 321 In May and hope I don’t get stuck on one of these ex-Thomas Cook birds with the tight legroom and lack of IFE. When are they going in service.


You are more accommodating than I would be. If B6 surprised me with a plane with 28" pitch, I would refuse to board it. Not what I paid for.
 
LightChop2Chop
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 24, 2020 1:53 pm

tphuang wrote:
w3gar wrote:
Now that Avianca is about to end JFK-SAP in a few weeks, I can see B6 adding this route to their network in the future and do good on it.

I think it could work on a 4x weekly basis on off-peak and daily basis in peak season on A320. Problem with Honduras is that there is not much business or leisure demand there. B6 seems to be on a row with these JFK VFR routes recently. Still would love to see BOG at some point. Maybe there is still space even with AV/DL already on there.


Have you been to SAP? There is quite a bit of business demand there. Manufacturing, agriculture (bananas) etc. I go there several times a year and the Hilton is always crammed with American business people. Now, where they are coming from in the US I don't know but I don't think they would have much issues filling a 4X week there.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 24, 2020 2:02 pm

LightChop2Chop wrote:
tphuang wrote:
w3gar wrote:
Now that Avianca is about to end JFK-SAP in a few weeks, I can see B6 adding this route to their network in the future and do good on it.

I think it could work on a 4x weekly basis on off-peak and daily basis in peak season on A320. Problem with Honduras is that there is not much business or leisure demand there. B6 seems to be on a row with these JFK VFR routes recently. Still would love to see BOG at some point. Maybe there is still space even with AV/DL already on there.


Have you been to SAP? There is quite a bit of business demand there. Manufacturing, agriculture (bananas) etc. I go there several times a year and the Hilton is always crammed with American business people. Now, where they are coming from in the US I don't know but I don't think they would have much issues filling a 4X week there.

Haven't been to Honduras but my impression was that most of the demand from New York would be vfr and missionaries. There would probably be more service if there is actually business demand there.
 
FARmd90
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 24, 2020 3:17 pm

When jetblue gets these frames. Can they even get “old” system that’s now on the core/mint planes anymore? Or would they have to be the AVANT system? Someone up thread mentioned reconfiguring current core 321s to mint and Thomas cook to core standards but again that leaves. Can jetblue even get the current system that’s found in the 321 cores/mint.
Last edited by FARmd90 on Fri Jan 24, 2020 3:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 24, 2020 3:19 pm

flyby519 wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:
I had another FAA jumpseater yesterday

Garden city, works with B6


I wouldn’t be surprised if Etops causes a London delay after hearing him talk about it


Because of the WN ETOPS allegations? viewtopic.php?p=21957501

Or just because B6 is being B6?



He didnt reference WN
 
FSDan
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 24, 2020 4:45 pm

tphuang wrote:
Still would love to see BOG at some point. Maybe there is still space even with AV/DL already on there.


Would B6's 320/321s have any trouble making it from BOG-JFK with a viable load? BOG is at 8,361 ft of elevation (higher even than UIO). I know AV sends 320s on MDE-JFK, but that's over 1,000 ft less elevated. I'm not sure at which elevation things become difficult, but I'm wondering if that's part of why B6 hasn't tried JFK-BOG while it seems to do well with Florida-BOG...
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tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 24, 2020 4:58 pm

FSDan wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Still would love to see BOG at some point. Maybe there is still space even with AV/DL already on there.


Would B6's 320/321s have any trouble making it from BOG-JFK with a viable load? BOG is at 8,361 ft of elevation (higher even than UIO). I know AV sends 320s on MDE-JFK, but that's over 1,000 ft less elevated. I'm not sure at which elevation things become difficult, but I'm wondering if that's part of why B6 hasn't tried JFK-BOG while it seems to do well with Florida-BOG...

I imagine it would have to be on neo. I think lack of neo was why they didn't try it in the past. And then delta beat them to the punch. Hard to see this route supporting 2 us carriers. And delta would be a lot harder to push off than aa. So I think JetBlue lost their chance here.
 
LightChop2Chop
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 24, 2020 8:47 pm

tphuang wrote:
Haven't been to Honduras but my impression was that most of the demand from New York would be vfr and missionaries. There would probably be more service if there is actually business demand there.


Well there is that but there is quite a bit of manufacturing (check the label of your shirt next time). Honduras is one the countries that often appears. the bananas in your supermarket are likely from Honduras. And to be fair AA has service from MIA and DFW, UA has service, DL has service, so does NK, Air Europa, AM and AV. So its not that isolated.
 
B752OS
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Jan 25, 2020 2:53 pm

Does JetBlue make any sort of response to Delta's moves in MIA? How long before we really see them beef up FLL-Western US ops? Something like:

LAX - 6 daily year round
SAN - 2 daily year round
BUR - 1 daily year round
SJC - 1 daily year round
SFO - 4 daily year round
PDX - 1 daily year round
SEA - 2 daily year round
LAS - 3 daily year round
PHX - 2 daily year round
SLC - 2 daily year round
DEN - 3 daily year round
 
ABEguy
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Jan 25, 2020 4:53 pm

So for those in the know, is JetBlue etops qualified, or currently working on it? Their London service is just around the corner, just curious where they stand.
 
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flymco753
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Jan 25, 2020 5:00 pm

evank516 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
evank516 wrote:

Europe aside, what is your basis for saying that? Why would B6 even attempt DTW from LGA when their hub/focus city is JFK? Why wouldn't they break into a market monopolized by DL, who makes good yields on this route while flying mostly RJs with a mainline frequency sprinkled in? CLT already has competition from JFK between DL and AA, but DTW doesn't have anyone but DL.


That's the point, they are unlikely to ever enter the NYC-DTW, because it's a waste of their precious JFK slot on a route that at best will be a little below system average margins like CLT. There is not much difference between DTW and CLT.
- both are really short routes
- both have a legacy fortress hub and other legacy compoetition.
- both have minimal ULCC competition

Between that and MSP, MSP makes a lot more sense because it's a lot further out, so JFK becomes more appealing. The shorter the route is, the less likely for people to fly out of JFK.

There are many places they can deploy aircraft that would be more profitable than JFK-DTW.


The main difference between CLT and DTW is two airlines vs on airline competing. DL has a monopoly on JFK-DTW. Yields are very good and prices are very steep.

While I agree with you about MSP, the level of competition is equal. No one else but DL flies JFK-MSP, but I don't know if yields are as high as DTW.
I did a quick QSI and it would actually make sense for B6 to attempt JFK-DTW at some point because traffic to NYC in those large markets essentially become finite. What this means is that if an airline adds a flight to EWR, LGA, or JFK, seats will be filled. It's kind of like saying that if B6 attempts MCO-DTW that they wouldn't get more than a 70% because of competition which simply isn't true in finite markets. B6 can make it work if they make it appealing to both leisure and business passengers.
...the carriage of liquids, gels, and aerosols are prohibited through the screening checkpoint except for travel size toiletries of 3 ounces or less...
 
Dieuwer
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Jan 25, 2020 5:05 pm

ABEguy wrote:
So for those in the know, is JetBlue etops qualified, or currently working on it? Their London service is just around the corner, just curious where they stand.


The "corner" is HUMONGOUS. Will take a while to round it. ;) :D
 
BlueBaller
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Jan 25, 2020 5:26 pm

ABEguy wrote:
So for those in the know, is JetBlue etops qualified, or currently working on it? Their London service is just around the corner, just curious where they stand.


It's over a year away. It's still being developed.
 
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varsity
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Jan 25, 2020 6:19 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:

Hopefully LAX/SFO- EWR.


If only.....
AB3, DC8, DC9, DH7, D10, E90, M80, M88, 320, 321, 330, 722, 737, 733, 734, 738, 747, 744, 757, 752, 753, 772
AA, AF, B6, CO, DL, EA, EI, FI, HP, KM, LX, MS, NW, OP, PA, TW, UA, US, VS, W9, WO, YX
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jan 26, 2020 1:47 am

LightChop2Chop wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Haven't been to Honduras but my impression was that most of the demand from New York would be vfr and missionaries. There would probably be more service if there is actually business demand there.


Well there is that but there is quite a bit of manufacturing (check the label of your shirt next time). Honduras is one the countries that often appears. the bananas in your supermarket are likely from Honduras. And to be fair AA has service from MIA and DFW, UA has service, DL has service, so does NK, Air Europa, AM and AV. So its not that isolated.

This kind of routes of B6 normally services the VFR crowd. They also like to draw a lot of the leisure crowd, which would be smaller here than say SJO or GYE. I still do think there is a market for them here. I do think SAL is a greater likelihood.

B752OS wrote:
Does JetBlue make any sort of response to Delta's moves in MIA? How long before we really see them beef up FLL-Western US ops? Something like:

LAX - 6 daily year round
SAN - 2 daily year round
BUR - 1 daily year round
SJC - 1 daily year round
SFO - 4 daily year round
PDX - 1 daily year round
SEA - 2 daily year round
LAS - 3 daily year round
PHX - 2 daily year round
SLC - 2 daily year round
DEN - 3 daily year round

The only ones I could see DL entering is LAX/SEA. LAX would not be a concern for B6 since they are steadily growing there. SEA seems like a route they should enter. I don't see them doing much in other markets. At the moment, their attention is all on BOS and a little bit on NYC.


As for London, I'd be more concerned about LR delivery at the moment. I'm not feeling that confident that they are going to be able to get that aircraft on time.
 
trueblew
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jan 26, 2020 2:23 am

Is MHT on anyone's radar? B6 seems to be hiring ramp crew there. https://g.co/kgs/u2Pzfj
 
flyby519
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jan 26, 2020 2:24 am

tphuang wrote:
This kind of routes of B6 normally services the VFR crowd. They also like to draw a lot of the leisure crowd, which would be smaller here than say SJO or GYE. I still do think there is a market for them here. I do think SAL is a greater likelihood.


As for London, I'd be more concerned about LR delivery at the moment. I'm not feeling that confident that they are going to be able to get that aircraft on time.


Thoughts on PTY as a possible new route?

I also agree Europe plans have a high chance of being delayed.
 
flyby519
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jan 26, 2020 2:27 am

trueblew wrote:
Is MHT on anyone's radar? B6 seems to be hiring ramp crew there. https://g.co/kgs/u2Pzfj


The link is fake. No MHT job listings on the jetblue career site.
 
Dieuwer
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jan 26, 2020 4:10 am

tphuang wrote:
As for London, I'd be more concerned about LR delivery at the moment. I'm not feeling that confident that they are going to be able to get that aircraft on time.


You think 2021 is out the door? Spring 2022 the earliest?
I suppose it is not feasible to lease LRs and re-purpose them for a summer 2021 launch...
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jan 26, 2020 1:52 pm

flyby519 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
This kind of routes of B6 normally services the VFR crowd. They also like to draw a lot of the leisure crowd, which would be smaller here than say SJO or GYE. I still do think there is a market for them here. I do think SAL is a greater likelihood.


As for London, I'd be more concerned about LR delivery at the moment. I'm not feeling that confident that they are going to be able to get that aircraft on time.


Thoughts on PTY as a possible new route?

I also agree Europe plans have a high chance of being delayed.


Possible, but they seem to be chasing after predominantly VFR routes right now. CM makes any service to PTY pretty tough. It could work out of JFK, but there might be more profitable opportunities.

Dieuwer wrote:
tphuang wrote:
As for London, I'd be more concerned about LR delivery at the moment. I'm not feeling that confident that they are going to be able to get that aircraft on time.


You think 2021 is out the door? Spring 2022 the earliest?
I suppose it is not feasible to lease LRs and re-purpose them for a summer 2021 launch...

originally, I think they were planning for Q1 2021 start time. I don't think they are pushed far back enough for 2022 yet. But it is possible if LR get delayed, they won't be able to start service before the peak summer season of 2021. Don't think too many people have LRs to lease right now. According to Aer Lingus,
"Aer Lingus was due to operate four Airbus A321LRs last summer. However, a delay in deliveries meant that the airline only had one of the aircraft. In fact, to date, the carrier has still only received three of the type."

From OAG this week
AA CUN-JFK JUN 1.8>1.0[1.0] JUL 1.9>1.0[1.0] AUG 1.5>1.0[1.0]
*AA JFK-PUJ JUN 0.9>0.1[0.8] JUL 1.0>0.1[1.0] AUG 1.0>0.5[1.0]
B6 JFK-MCO APR 8>9[8]
B6 JFK-NAS APR 1.9>3[3]

Looks like B6 continuing it's effort utilize more slots. AA on the other hand hasn't got the memo. If Port Authority is really about to take away unused slots.....

A lot of NK expansion. B6 needs to watch out here.
 
Dieuwer
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jan 26, 2020 6:18 pm

Air Lease Corporation has been leasing lots of A321LR lately. To Aer Lingus, Air Astana, Azores, SAS, etc.
Not sure if ALC is depleted now or if they still have a couple on hand.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Jan 29, 2020 3:12 pm

Looking at PDEW from Q3.

Some markets they could add to. first for the beyond perimeter market out of JFK. Given that they downgauged some some florida flights this year to use up more slots. It does appear that they have more slots available than I previously thought. And it's not entirely out of the realm of possibility that they could work on leasing some AA slots at JFK or slots constraints going away later this year.

So provided they can find the airframe, they could add the following for summer time to really take advantage of NYC demands.
SEA - Q3 PDEW 1951 avg fare $312. This was a really healthy quarter of demand in the NYC-SEA market and B6 did very well this year, especially with AA leaving the market. PDEW was 1740 in Q2, so they could certainly add a flight here and fill the capacity easily.

AUS - Q3 1223 avg fare $246 vs 1414 avg fare $253 in Q2. This is a market they really have let slide in the last 5 years. DL has really taken advantage to become the dominant player here. I think a 3rd flight here for the full year would serve them very well here.

SAT - Q3 538 avg fare $236 vs 589 avg fare $257 in Q2. The yield gap on non-stopo between AUS and SAT is probably even higher than this since more of SAT itinerary are connection based. So, I think adding a 3rd flight to AUS would be more beneficial. but at some point, SAT seems like a market they should enter given the lack of competition from the largest carrier in SAT on this market + lack of carriers on BOS-SAT.

SMF - Q3 396 avg fare $279 vs 433 $279 in Q2. So this has been routinely one of B6's top performing non-premium transcon route out of JFK. Even as the only non-stop carrier here, they only get about 1/3 of demand here, because they utilize the typical red-eye flight eastbound. I think if they are not careful, another carrier like DL/UA could enter this route spoiling their performance. If they go from 1 A321 red-eye to 2 daily A320s with one red-eye, it would only increase capacity here by 50% and they'd be able to capture some of that daytime demand that they currently lose out to more convenient 1-stop options.

BZN - Q3 114 avg fare $373 - this is where things really get interesting. the demand here clearly doesn't justify the daily flight they added here. So, it will be interesting how much having a non-stop option at lower fare level will stimulate demand to yellowstone park in summer time.

JAC - Q3 124 avg fare $414 - this is another route where they could try if BZN works out. both are markets that do well in winter and summer vs the other 2 seasons. They've had quite a bit of success with these type of summer vacation destinations out of NYC.

So I would say one additional flight to SMF, one to AUS, one that gets split between SEA/PHX (based on season) + seasonal flights to JAC would be good adds. Maybe BZN and JAC both become 3 or 4x weekly instead of daily to BZN.

Within perimeter destinations
Dallas Q3 2937 avg fare $243 vs Q2 3110 $243 - It bugs me to no end that they are completely ignoring the 7th largest market out of NYC. If ATL/DEN can support profitable daily flights, they should have no problem with this to DFW.

MSP Q3 1487 avg fare 261 vs Q2 1431 $280 - This makes even more sense than Dallas. There is basically no LCC/ULCC competition. The flight is much shorter than Dallas, but has higher fares than to Dallas. The fares are also a lot higher than ATL despite being just 30% longer. After BNA got added, this seems like the most obvious route for them out of JFK.

Houston Q3 2106 avg fare 250 vs Q2 2208 $261 - A very similar market to Dallas, but has less competition. They are obviously already serving IAH and they do quite well. I think a second flight should be added back. There is no reason that they can run 2x to numerous other large markets like ATL/DEN and can't do that here.

St Louis Q3 844 avg fare 229 vs Q2 832 avg fare 246 - Another market they can enter with both BOS/JFK. There is actually no competition out of JFK right now. Given that they are unlikely to enter IND after AA's BOS-IND move, STL should move up their priority list. Another very high fare market out of NYC. If you just compare WN fare here to B6 to similar stage length markets, it seems like a makret they can do well in.

MKE Q3 569 avg fare 220 vs Q2 534 avg fare 218 - Similar to STL but smaller market. Another one where it seems like if they go in from BOS, JFK should get the nod also. But it this way, SAV is similarly far with similar demand but the avg fare in Q3 was $147 due to B6 competition. This seems like a clear market they can do well on since WN is exiting out of both LGA and BOS.

MEM Q3 330 avg fare $256 vs Q2 330 avg fare $260 - Another market like MKE. Not a whole lot of demand to NYC or BOS, but enough to probably support one flight a day. A market that seems like it could use LCC stimulation.
 
avi8
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Jan 29, 2020 4:28 pm

Does anyone know why B6 offers so little connections from GUA? The flight arrives at 6 am, which gives plenty of time for other connections. The same can be said for the returning flight, which leaves JFK at 7 pm.
avi8
 
FSDan
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Jan 29, 2020 9:26 pm

tphuang wrote:
Within perimeter destinations
Dallas Q3 2937 avg fare $243 vs Q2 3110 $243 - It bugs me to no end that they are completely ignoring the 7th largest market out of NYC. If ATL/DEN can support profitable daily flights, they should have no problem with this to DFW.

MSP Q3 1487 avg fare 261 vs Q2 1431 $280 - This makes even more sense than Dallas. There is basically no LCC/ULCC competition. The flight is much shorter than Dallas, but has higher fares than to Dallas. The fares are also a lot higher than ATL despite being just 30% longer. After BNA got added, this seems like the most obvious route for them out of JFK.

Houston Q3 2106 avg fare 250 vs Q2 2208 $261 - A very similar market to Dallas, but has less competition. They are obviously already serving IAH and they do quite well. I think a second flight should be added back. There is no reason that they can run 2x to numerous other large markets like ATL/DEN and can't do that here.

St Louis Q3 844 avg fare 229 vs Q2 832 avg fare 246 - Another market they can enter with both BOS/JFK. There is actually no competition out of JFK right now. Given that they are unlikely to enter IND after AA's BOS-IND move, STL should move up their priority list. Another very high fare market out of NYC. If you just compare WN fare here to B6 to similar stage length markets, it seems like a makret they can do well in.

MKE Q3 569 avg fare 220 vs Q2 534 avg fare 218 - Similar to STL but smaller market. Another one where it seems like if they go in from BOS, JFK should get the nod also. But it this way, SAV is similarly far with similar demand but the avg fare in Q3 was $147 due to B6 competition. This seems like a clear market they can do well on since WN is exiting out of both LGA and BOS.

MEM Q3 330 avg fare $256 vs Q2 330 avg fare $260 - Another market like MKE. Not a whole lot of demand to NYC or BOS, but enough to probably support one flight a day. A market that seems like it could use LCC stimulation.


Question: are the PDEW numbers for these within-perimeter destinations combined JFK+LGA+EWR numbers?
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tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Jan 29, 2020 9:41 pm

FSDan wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Within perimeter destinations
Dallas Q3 2937 avg fare $243 vs Q2 3110 $243 - It bugs me to no end that they are completely ignoring the 7th largest market out of NYC. If ATL/DEN can support profitable daily flights, they should have no problem with this to DFW.

MSP Q3 1487 avg fare 261 vs Q2 1431 $280 - This makes even more sense than Dallas. There is basically no LCC/ULCC competition. The flight is much shorter than Dallas, but has higher fares than to Dallas. The fares are also a lot higher than ATL despite being just 30% longer. After BNA got added, this seems like the most obvious route for them out of JFK.

Houston Q3 2106 avg fare 250 vs Q2 2208 $261 - A very similar market to Dallas, but has less competition. They are obviously already serving IAH and they do quite well. I think a second flight should be added back. There is no reason that they can run 2x to numerous other large markets like ATL/DEN and can't do that here.

St Louis Q3 844 avg fare 229 vs Q2 832 avg fare 246 - Another market they can enter with both BOS/JFK. There is actually no competition out of JFK right now. Given that they are unlikely to enter IND after AA's BOS-IND move, STL should move up their priority list. Another very high fare market out of NYC. If you just compare WN fare here to B6 to similar stage length markets, it seems like a makret they can do well in.

MKE Q3 569 avg fare 220 vs Q2 534 avg fare 218 - Similar to STL but smaller market. Another one where it seems like if they go in from BOS, JFK should get the nod also. But it this way, SAV is similarly far with similar demand but the avg fare in Q3 was $147 due to B6 competition. This seems like a clear market they can do well on since WN is exiting out of both LGA and BOS.

MEM Q3 330 avg fare $256 vs Q2 330 avg fare $260 - Another market like MKE. Not a whole lot of demand to NYC or BOS, but enough to probably support one flight a day. A market that seems like it could use LCC stimulation.


Question: are the PDEW numbers for these within-perimeter destinations combined JFK+LGA+EWR numbers?

Yes and I think it probably also includes White plains and isp.
 
StinkyPinky
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 30, 2020 1:25 am

 
SXDFC
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 30, 2020 7:10 am

One thing I’ve always thought about.. Being that B6 has only A321NEOs and A220s in order, could they benefit from being an A321/A220 airline? Could any airline that operates the A320 benefit from phasing out their A320s and operate all A321s? I don’t really know much about the CASM aspect so please don’t flame me for the question haha.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 30, 2020 2:48 pm

took a look at the fares in some of the JFK to south American markets for mid June now that B6 has entered GUA.

Taking Jun 12 to 19 (keep in mind these all look to be BE fares)
GUA - B6 is showing the cheapest with N/S at 433. CM is at 534 via PTY and AA is at 686 via MIA as the next cheapest/shortest path
SJO - AA showing at $452 and B6 showing $397 (432 via FLL)
LIR - B6 showing $378 and AA showing 685 via MIa and DL showing 815 via ATL.
BGI - B6 showing anywhere from 372 to 387
POS - B6 showing 343/363, BW showing 408
GEO - B6 showing 483, AA 489 and BW 582
GYE - B6 showing 444 (485 via FLL), LA showing 713
AUA - B6 showing 445, DL 484
CUN - B6 showing 397 to 444, DL 552, AA 577
SDQ - B6 showing 260, DL 304
STI - B6 showing 256, DL 337
PUJ - B6 showing 398, DL 409
SJU - B6 showing 268 to 300+, DL 340 to 395
MBJ - B6 showing 396, AA 396, BW 431, DL 439
KIN - B6 showing 377 to 397, BW 405, DL 422
CTG - B6 showing 435, CM at 428 via PTY
PAP - B6 showing 348

some of the market they are not in
MEX - AM showing 293, 4O 305
BOG - AV showing 918, DL 945
MDE - AV showing 981, AA 713 via MIA
UIO - AM 469 via MEX, B6 579 via FLL, AV 684 via BOG, CM 694 via PTY
PTY - CM showing 726
SAP - AM 427 via MEX, AA 560 via MIA
SAL - AV showing 718, AA 736 via MIA, DL 791 via ATL
LIM -LA showing 805, B6 591 via FLL, AA 604 via MIA

So few things of note here. I think B6 fares look lower now that BE has been instituted. It's interesting BE has allowed them to undercut legacies on many of these routes where they used to get price matched. I think this will help their LF on the trunk markets of STI/SDQ/SJU.

Also compared to the markets without their presence like BOG/PTY, it looks like they are definitely chasing O&D with their pricing rather than using the model of charging more for direct and then filling rest of cabin with connection itineraries. MEX being the exception, which is probably due to all the ULCCs there. Given the low fares at MEX compared to surrounding market, it's no wonder B6 got out of there. I think they concluded rightfully MEX is not a battle they can win.

For the question why B6 doesn't offer more connection to GUA. That's probably due to their goal of chasing O&D. There is enough traffic from NYC to GUA to fill the cabins.

Based on fare level at SJO, I don't think AA is going to last very long on there. GEO fares have shown to be a lot more resilient than I expected.

It's not clear to me how some of these STI/SDQ fare levels are sustainable given that taxes are actually pretty high to DR.

Also looking at the markets they are not in directly from JFK. Looks like both BOG/MDE are markets they can make an impact based on the current fare levels. BOG fares are still over twice CTG fares even after DL's entrance in the market.
 
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 30, 2020 2:51 pm

StinkyPinky wrote:


First DY and not 4O. Not sure what's up with JetBlue doing interline deals with airlines that are in financial trouble. Interline really doesn't do much. I'd like to see more code sharing and mileage earning arrangments.

SXDFC wrote:
One thing I’ve always thought about.. Being that B6 has only A321NEOs and A220s in order, could they benefit from being an A321/A220 airline? Could any airline that operates the A320 benefit from phasing out their A320s and operate all A321s? I don’t really know much about the CASM aspect so please don’t flame me for the question haha.

It's going in that direction. At some point, A320 will be leaving service. Seems like A220-500 is the perfect replacement.
 
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 30, 2020 8:54 pm

Taking a look at PDEW from Q3 for Boston. I'm just going to focus on markets they are not in at the moment, since they have already been working very hard at beefing up the markets they are already in. I don't think any of them are obviously underserved.

PDX Q3 477 Avg fare 294 vs Q2 370 Avg fare 304 - I'm cheating a little here since they did serve here in summer time. In Q2, they only had 14% market share and in Q3 they had 39% market share. The fare level looked pretty good again. I think they should make effort in making this seasonal route last longer. Maybe stop it for a couple of month in winter, but this should be a route they can run at least 1x for most of the year. Maybe they'd need to make it have daytime eastbound for that 1 flight to be more competitive.

STL Q3 396 Avg fare 256 vs Q2 381 Avg fare 280 - So this is the largest market they are not in. Right now, WN is basically getting a free ride here and they are going up to 5x daily this summer. WN apparently captures 68% of the market. Given WN's weakness at BOS, this might be the easiest market they can enter now that IND has AA. Keep in mind that the market closest in size and distance to STL in Q3 is JAX. JAX average fare was $161. So if the fare was to drop 25% here through stimulation, it would still be an easier market to enter than many of the ones B6 has tried recently. I don't think it's crazy to think that fare stimulation can cause PDEW go up to 500 a day. there should be enough demand here for B6 to run 2x daily with A220s or 1x A320 + 1x E90 if A220 is not available. If they can achieve 80% LF with 25% of that connecting at BOS, they'd only need to pick up about 162 O&D passengers a day. That would just be the extra passengers from fare stimulation + some of the connection market. And as I said with NYC, JFK has no competition right now. STL could do well from both JFK/BOS.

IND Q3 366 Avg fare 249 vs Q2 363 Avg fare 236 - I don't think the fare here is as outrageous as STL, since DL is flying E75s here vs WN's 737 to STL. With AA entering the market, it will have 6 x 75 = 450 seats. If we assume 75% LF with 15% connection passengers, 285 passengers will be carried direct. That doesn't seem like too much capacity in this market. In fact, fares might not even drop. 2 AA flights of 76 seats is basically just 1 WN flight. So if we think IND was not overserved when the market was 3 to 4x DL E75 and 1x WN 737, then it's still not overserved with AA presence. I don't think the opportunity here is as good as STL. But there is still space for B6 to enter with 2 E90s. That would cause the fares to actually drop and PDEW to probably go up quite a bit.

CMH Q3 354 Avg fare 220 vs Q2 340 avg fare 225 - Keep in mind CMH is shorter flight than IND, so the fare level here is probably comparable to IND on the yield curve. I don't think my calculations have changed much since Q2. Still just 2x DL RJ + 1x WN 737 here. That's just 300 seat for a market that has more demand than that at very high fares. I think 2xE90 from B6 could push WN out of this market. Similar to STL, there is plenty of space here to enter. Even if DL was to go up to 4x here, I think there is plenty of space for B6 since WN would probably just drop out. To me, it should be between STL and CMH on which market they enter next.

CVG Q3 348 Avg fare 251 vs Q2 325 avg fare 275 - If you want to see what a really high fare market looks like when DL is the only player, this is it. DL went up to 5x here with 717 probably to deter B6 from getting in. Similar to the previous 3 here, this seems like a market that can easily have another 50 to 100 passenger a day if the fares are significantly lower. Is there space here for B6, probably. But it's not as appealing as previous 3.

MCI Q3 314 Avg fare 234 vs Q2 320 Avg fare 228 - This is what happens when WN gets pushed out. It was a really low fare market with probably too much capacity until MAX problem hit and WN exited a low yield market. Imo, 1x daily A220 would work great here. They don't need to try to compete on frequency with DL if cost on A220-300 is so much lower on a flight of this type of stage length. I'd actually rank this ahead of CVG in terms of appealingness.

MKE Q3 288 Avg fare 220 vs Q2 252 Avg fare 223 - Another market where fares will probably go up now that WN has exited. As I mentioned in NYC analysis, there is no reason they couldn't do one flight out of both BOS and JFK to MKE. With WN gone, there is only 150 seats here in a market with twice that much demand at very healthy fare level. Plenty of room for B6 here.

SAT Q3 178 Avg fare 277 vs Q2 208 Avg fare 280 - I just don't see B6 entering this market anytime soon due to the huge bloodbath right up the road.

SDF Q3 140 Avg fare 228 vs Q2 141 avg fare 243 - Basically similar to last quarter. Seems like a lot of room for E90 or even 1x A220 when that becomes available. It's not a huge station, so they'd have to justify both to BOS and FLL most likely.

ABQ Q3 131 Avg fare 297 vs Q2 129 Avg fare 295 - They could add a flight here. But given the struggles that B6 has had on JFK-ABQ which is a larger market, it's hard to see this being a winner. Route that's longer typically have a lot more convenient 1-stop options when B6 only offers the red-eye return. So this doesn't make much sense for them.

MEM Q3 123 Avg fare 305 vs Q2 126 Avg fare 295 - Very similar to SDF. I think there is a lot more demand here to NYC. So they could try MEM to BOS/JFK/FLL if they wanted to open up a station here. the demand is lower than SDF, but the fare levels are quite high. It's a market they could really stimulate. A much more appealing market than ABQ due to the shorter stage length and higher fares.

I ignored ORF and MYR since they don't make a lot of sense based on demand + fare level. I don't see more appealing markets after this.

Of these markets, I'd rank them as CMH -> STL -> MKE -> IND -> MCI -> MEM -> CVG -> SDF in terms of appeal.
 
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 31, 2020 1:12 am

Fantastic analysis Tphuang. That really puts future expansion into perspective
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 31, 2020 3:58 pm

So yesterday, I looked at some of the largest markets in BOS without B6 presence and wandered how much lower fares will stimulate traffic.

today, I'm going to look at a couple of examples comparing 2015 Q3 to 2019 Q3. Keep in mind that all of these figures for Boston also include connection itineraries from BOS, PVD and MHT. So the consequences of just having more non-stop from BOS means the avg fares will come down.


First for STL - all these are for Q3
2015 - 375 Avg Fare $253
2017 - 377 Avg Fare $289
2019 - 396 Avg Fare $256
So as you can see, when avg fare remains stable from 2015 to 2019, there is a steady increase here of about 5% higher PDEW. 2017 squeezed the PDEW by having higher fare. Probably WN adding an extra flight here normalized the very high fare level to match demand.

Interesting enough, WN is pretty steady here capturing around 2/3 of all passengers

Now, let's look at a counter example in MSP, which is similar in length and fare level back from 2015 to 2017
2015 - 796 Avg Fare $272
2017 - 850 Avg Fare $242
2019 - 1032 Avg Fare $192
This is a clear indication of how much affect B6 entrance had. From 2015 to 2019, PDEW grew 29.6% as avg fare dropped close to 30%. From 2015 to 2017, PDEW grew 6.8% as avg fare dropped 11%.

Another example to look at is JAX, which is also similar in length to STL but already had lower fares due to B6 presence
2015 - 310 Avg Fare $201
2017 - 297 Avg Fare $198
2019 - 416 Avg Fare $161
Unlike MSP, the stimulus here was DL entrance.
From 2016 to 2019, PDEW grew 34.2% as fares dropped 20%.

So if we put the MSP example on STL, we could estimate roughly that PDEW would grow 25 to 30% with a 25 to 30% drop in fares. That would mean 495 to 515 PDEW for fares in the $179 to $192. I think B6 would be satisfied with avg fare at that level if it's flying a mix of E90 and A320. As discused yesterday, an extra 120 passengers + taking some of the existing demand that flies with WN or connection (particularly BOS point of sale) could mean around 160 to 180 PDEW on B6. If we tack on another 25% more passenger connecting on top of that, you'd get 82% LF on 1 E90 and A320 or 76% on 2 A220.

Next to look at CMH - again all Q3 data
2015 - 279 Avg Fare $227
2017 - 360 Avg Fare $195
2019 - 354 Avg Fare $220
So again, the avg fare reamined stable from 2015 to 2019. It went down a bit in 2017 due to more capacity from DL, but came back up again as supply caught up with demand more. Interestingly here, 27% higher PDEW with minimal effect on fare level. Maybe this is due to DL's usage of RJs here.

And MKE
2015 - 305 Avg Fare $209
2017 - 329 Avg Fare $180
2019 - 288 Avg Fare $221
So this is a typical market where fare gone up with less supply. From 2015 to 2019, we are seeing 5.6% lower PDEW as the fares went up 5.7%.

The closest market in terms of distance/capacity to these 2 is CHS.
2015 - 245 Avg Fare $195
2017 - 282 Avg Fare $198
2019 - 329 Avg Fare $178
Looks like from 2015 to 2017, PDEW increased here without change to fare level due to B6 being the only carrier here. After DL entered the market, PDEW went up 16.7% as fares went down 10.1%

In both CMH/MKE, I think if fares went down 20% (which will still be quite healthy), you could see 25% more PDEW, which would put CMH at around 450 and MKE at around 360. If CMH is at 450, it should easily be able to accept 2 extra E90s (200 more seat) from B6. Since they could take the additional 100 PDEW generated from lower fares + 20 to 50 from WN/DL. Even if DL went to 3x E75, it would only probably cause WN to drop out. I can't see 3x E75 + 2x E90 (or 2x A220 down the road) being too much capacity for this route. And on MKE, it now only has 2 E75. I think 2x E90 or even 1x A220 can easily absorbed by this market.
 
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 31, 2020 4:08 pm

StinkyPinky wrote:


Could this imply that Interjet will eventually move to T5?
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 31, 2020 6:00 pm

mia wrote:
StinkyPinky wrote:


Could this imply that Interjet will eventually move to T5?


I doubt it, this is simply an interline agreement.
 
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:07 pm

Quiet few days around here.

A couple of things to look at.
From Saturday, http://blueir.investproductions.com/inv ... -173130975
First flight touches down in PTP. I'm hoping they expand this as time goes on. From what I can see thus far, the fares look quite healthy.

Looking further at these NYC to Latin America pricing, it's quite interesting how low B6 is pricing some of these markets now. I really don't see how DL could sustain markets like JFK-STI/SDQ over the next recession.

From Monday, http://blueir.investproductions.com/inv ... -135927286
JetBlue trying really hard here to promote JetBlue Travel. If I were them, I'd go to TPG right now and get some people there to help them out with making a product that people actually want. Airlines are not great at this branching out of airline business.

From the JSX thread, looks like JSX is going to make an announcement around Texas coming Tuesday. Interesting to see that JSX is chosing Texas as the next place to set up their operation. If I were JetBlue, I'd actively encourage JSX to set up these flights in the Northeast corridor and setup extensive ff benefits on JSX. Given their lack of slots at LGA/DCA and their minimal presence in ORD, I really don't see many other ways for them to attract more ff.

Speaking of JSX, looks like they have added SNA-PHX. I wonder if there is any movement from JetBlue front in getting SNA slots or getting more LAX gates. I don't expect them to add to LAX today. But if they have 4 or 5 gates + some CUTE access, they could capitalize on JSX's growing presence at BUR and SNA.

Also, I think the next schedule extension should come soon (maybe this weekend)? Maybe we will finally see their previous BOS announcement show up.
 
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Feb 05, 2020 11:23 pm

tphuang wrote:
I wonder if there is any movement from JetBlue front in getting SNA slots


Does a B6 A320 have the performance capability to take off from SNA and make it to JFK with a healthy passenger load? UA flies SNA-EWR, but they exclusively deploy their high-performance 73Gs on the route.

I'm not familiar with how capable the A220-300s are supposed to be, but unless they are on par with 73Gs/319s, I don't see B6 trying to serve SNA.
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Feb 06, 2020 6:56 pm

https://i.postimg.cc/brj7pGgc/NHNTfuO.jpg

Could be on par with the additional FLL gate rumors.
 
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Feb 07, 2020 2:28 am

Article from TPG on JetBlue comments from RoutesAmerica. This would've been a great time for them to enter IND if they had decided to do so. So looks like IND is not going to be their next middle of the country destination.

https://thepointsguy.com/news/jetblue-l ... oute-cull/
- not a surprise here on LGB. The obvious money losing routes have all been cut. Only SFO left that's underperforming. That one they might keep around unless they really want to strip it down to 3 or 4 flights. I guess RNO could be the next cut if the performance goes down further. At this point, it doesn't seem like JetBlue knows what it wants to do there.

As for the part about FLL, it's good to see they are going to schedule with more connection in mind. Maybe they can start doing more of that at BOS too. Only JFK should be heavily focused on O&D. As for the part about 130 flights, that's actually down from 140 they have been mentioning up and until now. To me, these numbers don't really meant much. It just shows they are not focused on FLL right now. Which I think we can all see.
 
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Feb 07, 2020 2:44 pm

comments from DN interview with CrankyFlier that I think really applies to B6's current fleet.
https://crankyflier.com/2020/02/07/davi ... the-aisle/

On the operating side of things, he is says E195 has trip cost 15 to 20% lower than A320. That seems to match what JetBlue has told the investors, which is E90 has trip cost approximately 20% lower than A320 (i guess E95 would be slightly higher)

The part that is quit eye-dropping is what he said about A220.
David: Yeah, but that’s different. [The 220] has 7-hour range. We can fly Salt Lake to Maui or Denver to Kahului. That’s a whole different bird. It’s not a “cheap” thing in that case. What you can do [with] premium, you can’t really put economically on the 195s. But we could pull out a bunch of coach seats [overnight] and put first class seats in the 220s. So that plane will be flying long-haul and we’ll be flying thin markets where…

I’ve done this before. We’ve got [A]330s flying on Azul to the US. And an eight-hour flight on that airplane costs, call it, $100,000 for a flight. And if you can put an [A321]LR on it — a little range-challenged so you need an [A321]XLR — but if you have an XLR you’d probably be $50,000 to $60,000. And then [the A220] is under $30,000. So it’s just a whole different thing where you can actually fly city pairs that nobody has been able to fly before…. Usually range is equated with widebodies.

Cranky: You mentioned a western US to Hawaii market, but what other types of markets are are you interested in?

David: Transcon, secondary transcon, Northeast [US] to Europe, Florida to South America… particularly in Brazil and Azul’s network to some of the capitals they don’t fly and makes no sense to fly with a widebody. So, just all kinds of stuff that works, and we’re even talking about putting on some auxiliary fuel tanks a couple years later. It would give us another 500 miles on top of that; it would take us over four thousand miles. That would take us almost anywhere in Brazil from Florida, for example.

The range and flexibility of A220-300 is quite outstanding. If the XLR version can do Florida to all of Brazil or BOS to all of Western Europe, they need to put an order or 20 to 30 for this aircraft.

His total trip cost seems to good to be true. He is basically saying A321LR has a little over half of the total operating cost of A330. That I can believe. It's been mentioned many places. But he is also saying that A220's total operating cost is 50 to 60% of A321LR. Even if we assume the high end of that, it's significantly lower than what I had been estimating (about 71%). That seems too good to be true. There is no reason for anyone to operating A321XLR for long thin routes if A220XLR economics is that good.

David: The 195 works good at about 2 hours. Once you start getting to 3 hours, the fuel consumption per seat is… I mean the E2 has the same engines as the 220 and it’s burning 20% less fuel than the 195s are. So you can imagine if we have 145 seats on a 220 — that’s the coach configuration — and it’s burning less fuel than the 195s and you fly the thing on three-hour, four-hour, five-hour stage lengths… there are a lot of three, four-hour transcons in the US as well.

I don’t think we’ll have any routes for the 195 that are over 2 hours, maybe 2 hours 15 minutes. The fuel doesn’t make sense. It burns 600 gallons an hour and the 220 will burn maybe you know, 560, or something. But the [acquisition] cost of the 220s is a lot more, obviously. So you have to fly it more but if you’re flying it losing money on certain days of the week, then that doesn’t work either, so [the 195 and 220] work good together.

JetBlue has said the same thing. Basically, E90 trip cost really goes up when it the flight time increases. To the point where a trip from BOS-AUS might have same operating cost as a A320. Not surprising that E95 would have the same issues. Also not surprising that A220 would burn 20% less fuel than E95 since JetBlue have said total operating cost of A220 is about same as E90 (I calculated it to be even lower).

The lower trip cost airplanes you can get, exponentially more markets you can fly especially if your seat mile cost is down. It’s not like a 74-seat airplane that’s a scope airplane like the 175. It’s a fine airplane, but it’s not optimally sized for [unit cost] CASM because their pilots make the same, their maintenance is the same. Their capital cost isn’t more, burns a little less fuel because it’s lighter but they have basically 50 less seats than we do. That allows us to charge lower fares and stimulate the market.
[/quiote]
Here is the other thing to consider. There really is no need for JetBlue to return all the leased E90s from 2023 to 2025 if the leasors are willing to lease them out for close to nothing. They already took one time charges the the owned E90s. If there is no market for them, there is no reason to get rid of the ones still in good condition. On short range shuttle routes like BOS-LGA/EWR/JFK/PHL/DCA/BUF/PIT/ROC/SYR/RIC, their competition are E70/75s or E40s. The E90s have the same number of pilots/FAs. Their wages will be higher than the regional carriers, but there are 30 more seats to cover the slightly higher fuel cost. If the capital cost is 0, why are people eager to throw these aircraft away? There is no chance E75 capital cost is lower than used E90s at the moment. As long as E70/75s are around, E90s will have places where they can get maintained.

I think what they need to do is refresh the E90 cabins that they want to keep around and work hard to keep them as long as maintenance cost do not explode.

David: No, no it’s not. You know, if you’d have said to me, when we started Azul that we’d buy a bunch of 195s, and then you said, “10 years from now you’re gonna be flying five aircraft types,” I’d have said you’re crazy. But there’s a market there; we exploited it. So we went and got ATRs and then we went and got 330s and started flying international. And we saw the [A320]neos coming on. We needed those so we bought a bunch of 320neos and 321neos.

I think there’s actually a play with these airplanes, with 195s, also…. We’re talking to some real estate people too in areas that have almost no air service [about] bringing in air service and either them subsidizing it or us making money off the real estate. Because every time we fly into a market where there’s no air service, real estate values go up, so how’s that for distractions?

Here is the other thing. If opportunities present themselves, be open to have more fleet type. Single fleet type works for WN, but it's not the right practice for every airline.

You use these old E90s for shuttle markets as long as they fly.

A220 as the workhorse of your fleet

A321s for trunk markets, premium transcons and longer range flights.

don't get new A320s.
 
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Feb 07, 2020 3:26 pm

tphuang wrote:
w3gar wrote:
Now that Avianca is about to end JFK-SAP in a few weeks, I can see B6 adding this route to their network in the future and do good on it.

I think it could work on a 4x weekly basis on off-peak and daily basis in peak season on A320. Problem with Honduras is that there is not much business or leisure demand there. B6 seems to be on a row with these JFK VFR routes recently. Still would love to see BOG at some point. Maybe there is still space even with AV/DL already on there.


How is the A321neo on hot and high? Right now, you need either a wide body, small narrow body, the A20N, or B752.
 
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Feb 07, 2020 5:08 pm

Sounds like the A220 is the Holy Grail.
So, no more future orders for the A320 from anyone?
 
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Feb 07, 2020 5:24 pm

For other people, yes. For JetBlue, I doubt it.
 
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Feb 07, 2020 6:37 pm

[threeid][/threeid]
tphuang wrote:
For other people, yes. For JetBlue, I doubt it.


An interesting development today, SJU becoming a maintenance station. Those are always welcomed. And I agree, no new 320’s, unless something unforeseen happens.
 
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Feb 07, 2020 7:47 pm

I know Emirates is fed by B6 in Boston to a fairly successful degree. I'm wondering whether JetBlue's growth at BOS will hasten the return of their 2nd daily. It seems like a very symbiotic partnership.
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Feb 07, 2020 7:47 pm

I know Emirates is fed by B6 in Boston to a fairly successful degree. I'm wondering whether JetBlue's growth at BOS will hasten the return of their 2nd daily. It seems like a very symbiotic partnership.
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Feb 07, 2020 8:15 pm

ChrisNH38 wrote:
I know Emirates is fed by B6 in Boston to a fairly successful degree. I'm wondering whether JetBlue's growth at BOS will hasten the return of their 2nd daily. It seems like a very symbiotic partnership.


It wasn't all that long ago that they upgauged their daily flight to an A380 - I'd expect them to let the market absorb that extra capacity before bringing back a second flight. Also, were QR and TK already in the market the last time EK had 2x daily on BOS-DXB? If not, their entrance into the market could factor in as well.
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Feb 07, 2020 8:25 pm

FSDan wrote:
ChrisNH38 wrote:
I know Emirates is fed by B6 in Boston to a fairly successful degree. I'm wondering whether JetBlue's growth at BOS will hasten the return of their 2nd daily. It seems like a very symbiotic partnership.


It wasn't all that long ago that they upgauged their daily flight to an A380 - I'd expect them to let the market absorb that extra capacity before bringing back a second flight. Also, were QR and TK already in the market the last time EK had 2x daily on BOS-DXB? If not, their entrance into the market could factor in as well.


Yes, TK and QR were in BOS when EK doubled up. The reason given for the pullback was the whole 'laptop ban,' but I think that was a cover for the fact that it was too soon for double-daily between Boston and Dubai. But with more seats on B6 through Boston now than ever, it might accelerate EK's willingness to do something.
https://my.flightradar24.com/ChrisNH

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