Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, hOMSaR

  • 1
  • 5
  • 6
  • 7
  • 8
  • 9
  • 17
 
User avatar
iamjoeym
Posts: 21
Joined: Sat Dec 10, 2016 1:40 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Feb 23, 2020 10:56 pm

av8orwalk wrote:
According to the WN pilot on the MCO South Parking Lot shuttle at this very moment, JetBlue has defaulted on 2 payments for the South Terminal in MCO, which is totally fine with him because they are buying JetBlue and will put them out if their misery. He also said the JetBlue product will cease to exist once southwest takes over.

It’s amazing what you learn about your own airline when you commute out of uniform.


Ahaha that’s a good one! I sure hope we don’t get bought by Southwest. I do not want to work 16 legs a day.
 
Bluewho
Posts: 168
Joined: Wed Apr 10, 2019 12:58 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Feb 23, 2020 11:24 pm

av8orwalk wrote:
According to the WN pilot on the MCO South Parking Lot shuttle at this very moment, JetBlue has defaulted on 2 payments for the South Terminal in MCO, which is totally fine with him because they are buying JetBlue and will put them out if their misery. He also said the JetBlue product will cease to exist once southwest takes over.

It’s amazing what you learn about your own airline when you commute out of uniform.



Wow. The SWA pilots never cease to amaze me. Let me guess we are also all getting stapled and they will trade all JetBlue planes for 737s. It is funny we wanted the new terminal and got get yet defaulted not once but twice......yeah yeah sure.
 
FlyHPN
Posts: 107
Joined: Thu Jan 03, 2019 9:15 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Feb 23, 2020 11:27 pm

tphuang wrote:
I'd prefer to see them adding some more P2P flights out of places like BDL/PVD/BUF/RSW to solidify their ff base in these areas. For example, can you see what adding LAX, LAS and London to BDL would do to their ff base in the Conn/Westchester area? That's a very wealthy area.


While I agree with you in principal, I think they would be better off with SWF than BDL. It’s closer to the wealthier areas of Fairfield county and all of Westchester, plus you avoid the traffic prone I95/Merritt corridor. As you mentioned elsewhere in your post, it’ll be all about finding the equipment, plus warrant using valuable spots in places like London and LAX for a niche market.
 
tphuang
Posts: 4642
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Feb 23, 2020 11:47 pm

av8orwalk wrote:
According to the WN pilot on the MCO South Parking Lot shuttle at this very moment, JetBlue has defaulted on 2 payments for the South Terminal in MCO, which is totally fine with him because they are buying JetBlue and will put them out if their misery. He also said the JetBlue product will cease to exist once southwest takes over.

It’s amazing what you learn about your own airline when you commute out of uniform.

it never cease to amaze me some of the stuff I read on this forum.

BlueBaller wrote:
tphuang wrote:
I'd be impressed if they can finish building out BOS, FLL, MCO and LA in the next 4 years. That would require them to add about 30 flights a year. Even if they keep 30 E90s around until later part of this decade and don't retire any A320s, that seems to be a tall order.


I agree and I don't understand the fascination with being caught up in a romanticized idea of what could be. Let's just keep it real for once, and quit taking everything Robin says as gospel. MCO has basically been guaranteed the next area of expansion with terminal C. They've been promising the base that for 10 years. BOS will see EU service, and the growth coming within the next year or 2 will help keeping DL/AA at bay and secure the foundation for European feed. We'll hit an all time high this Friday at 180 peak departures. We got chief pilot comms 2 weeks ago that projected 203-207 peak daily departures by 2022. That's +30 from where we ended in 2019! It'll take a full decade to realize the final potential of the T5, T6, T7 plan at JFK. Even if they squeeze out an additional 2 gates at LAX midfield, they need to connect the stronger dots in the system like EWR and maybe DCA if a perimeter exemption can be had. FLL has gotten trickier because of Spirit but there's hope for South American growth with the next generation of deliveries and even FLL-LON with the XLR, if the airplane meets spec, but even that's ambitious, but they're obviously not giving up on the base. This is essentially all can be visualized with the current plans in motion. There's no room for additional focus cities in 3-4 years, so focus on that. Knock it off with Nashville, barring any merger with NK, that is.

Actually, they will already be at 185 by this summer. I've been estimating that they'd hit 200 sometimes in 2021. And then after, about 5 to 10 extra flight a year. So 203 to 207 by 2022 would be a little below my expectations. Maybe the JFK slot stuff took some steam off BOS growth. I'm hoping that MCO base doesn't have to wait too long for their growth.

flyby519 wrote:
tphuang wrote:

Again, not a huge fan of these 5+ year planning since a lot of things could change in that time. WN could buy out NK in a couple of years to eliminate competition. And who knows what kind of opportunity that would bring. HA could go in the red and get merged into BA. B6 could partner up with UA. We could have a huge recession and then any number of things could happen.


B6 needs to merge with NK. FLL fortress hub, and give them a foundation for focus cities like BNA and LAS. Also eliminate one of their biggest competitors in Florida.

Flame away a.net merger haters!

Interesting thought. SAVE is currently valued at around $2.81 billion and JBLU is at $5.95. They'd probably have to bid close to $4 billion to have it accepted. Which would be a lot of money, but let's see what NK would bring to JetBlue
- 11 (possibly more) slots at LGA
- a couple of gates + some prime time slots at EWR
- 3 and possibly more gates at LAX
- 10+? gates at FLL (potentially quite valuable)
- gates at MCO (not really valuable since B6 is not gate constrained there)
- station open in a bunch of Latin American cities and midwest cities without B6 presence
- a bunch of gates at BWI/DTW/LAS

I'm not sure that's enough value for JetBlue. The NYC assets will be worth quite a bit. The LAX gates would give them maybe 8 or 9 in total. That would be good. FLL gates would give them enough to possibly challenge AA in size. Other stuff, I'm not sure about. If they want a new focus city in LAS, that would give them a good place to start, but not sure B6 would have the resource to fight WN out there.

Maybe if we have a recession or travel slowdown and SAVE loses enough value to be bought for $2 billion, it would make sense.

Personally, I see WN slowly downsizing FLL operation and JetBlue should talk to WN about taking over some gates from them in exchange for something else if they are serious about expanding FLL.
 
flyby519
Posts: 1552
Joined: Tue Jul 24, 2007 3:31 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Feb 24, 2020 1:42 am

tphuang wrote:
Interesting thought. SAVE is currently valued at around $2.81 billion and JBLU is at $5.95. They'd probably have to bid close to $4 billion to have it accepted. Which would be a lot of money, but let's see what NK would bring to JetBlue
- 11 (possibly more) slots at LGA
- a couple of gates + some prime time slots at EWR
- 3 and possibly more gates at LAX
- 10+? gates at FLL (potentially quite valuable)
- gates at MCO (not really valuable since B6 is not gate constrained there)
- station open in a bunch of Latin American cities and midwest cities without B6 presence
- a bunch of gates at BWI/DTW/LAS

I'm not sure that's enough value for JetBlue. The NYC assets will be worth quite a bit. The LAX gates would give them maybe 8 or 9 in total. That would be good. FLL gates would give them enough to possibly challenge AA in size. Other stuff, I'm not sure about. If they want a new focus city in LAS, that would give them a good place to start, but not sure B6 would have the resource to fight WN out there.

Maybe if we have a recession or travel slowdown and SAVE loses enough value to be bought for $2 billion, it would make sense.

Personally, I see WN slowly downsizing FLL operation and JetBlue should talk to WN about taking over some gates from them in exchange for something else if they are serious about expanding FLL.


Current valuations definitely aren't cheap, but assuming B6 waits until a recession then it is guaranteed their JBLU stock won't be valued at just under $6b either. The differential in valuation is what is important in my mind. In coming years, recession or not, I see NK closing that gap and the companies valued closer than they are today.

The value of a dominant market share in FLL (should be just under 50% combined) would be the most valuable asset in my mind. It would also hasten the drawdown by WN and make it easier to claim that share they walk away from.

You should also add to your list the value of removing the biggest competitor with lower costs than B6. G4 and F9 would be the only ones left with lower costs, and G4 is playing a different game all together so they dont really count.
 
tphuang
Posts: 4642
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Feb 24, 2020 2:01 am

flyby519 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Interesting thought. SAVE is currently valued at around $2.81 billion and JBLU is at $5.95. They'd probably have to bid close to $4 billion to have it accepted. Which would be a lot of money, but let's see what NK would bring to JetBlue
- 11 (possibly more) slots at LGA
- a couple of gates + some prime time slots at EWR
- 3 and possibly more gates at LAX
- 10+? gates at FLL (potentially quite valuable)
- gates at MCO (not really valuable since B6 is not gate constrained there)
- station open in a bunch of Latin American cities and midwest cities without B6 presence
- a bunch of gates at BWI/DTW/LAS

I'm not sure that's enough value for JetBlue. The NYC assets will be worth quite a bit. The LAX gates would give them maybe 8 or 9 in total. That would be good. FLL gates would give them enough to possibly challenge AA in size. Other stuff, I'm not sure about. If they want a new focus city in LAS, that would give them a good place to start, but not sure B6 would have the resource to fight WN out there.

Maybe if we have a recession or travel slowdown and SAVE loses enough value to be bought for $2 billion, it would make sense.

Personally, I see WN slowly downsizing FLL operation and JetBlue should talk to WN about taking over some gates from them in exchange for something else if they are serious about expanding FLL.


Current valuations definitely aren't cheap, but assuming B6 waits until a recession then it is guaranteed their JBLU stock won't be valued at just under $6b either. The differential in valuation is what is important in my mind. In coming years, recession or not, I see NK closing that gap and the companies valued closer than they are today.

The value of a dominant market share in FLL (should be just under 50% combined) would be the most valuable asset in my mind. It would also hasten the drawdown by WN and make it easier to claim that share they walk away from.

You should also add to your list the value of removing the biggest competitor with lower costs than B6. G4 and F9 would be the only ones left with lower costs, and G4 is playing a different game all together so they dont really count.

I agree that JetBlue will have things a lot easier without spirit around. Although I think fare 2.0 will make things very hard for spirit also.

Then the question is what does JetBlue value dominant market share at FLL given Mia right down the road. I don't see spirit remaining independent given their current growth trajectory and how fast their margins have just collapsed.

Seems like spending 2/3 of their market cap to merge with spirit is very in JetBlue like, but that would definitely solve their problem of their 3rd largest focus city blowing up. The advantage of jetblue vs Southwest is the fleet commonality. But I do see Southwest looking at spirit as a larger threat that can be solved rather easily.

A Southwest and spirit merger would most certainly involve them giving up gates at fll, which I think long term would also result in JetBlue gaining dominant market share. I don't see Southwest sticking around in a market with so many carriers battling it out.
 
CobaltScar
Posts: 627
Joined: Thu Mar 23, 2017 2:30 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Feb 24, 2020 2:53 am

iamjoeym wrote:
av8orwalk wrote:
According to the WN pilot on the MCO South Parking Lot shuttle at this very moment, JetBlue has defaulted on 2 payments for the South Terminal in MCO, which is totally fine with him because they are buying JetBlue and will put them out if their misery. He also said the JetBlue product will cease to exist once southwest takes over.

It’s amazing what you learn about your own airline when you commute out of uniform.


Ahaha that’s a good one! I sure hope we don’t get bought by Southwest. I do not want to work 16 legs a day.


You do realize WN has far shorter duty days than B6 right? And for like double the pay.
 
JoseSalazar
Posts: 166
Joined: Mon Oct 14, 2019 3:18 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Feb 24, 2020 2:59 am

CobaltScar wrote:
iamjoeym wrote:
av8orwalk wrote:
According to the WN pilot on the MCO South Parking Lot shuttle at this very moment, JetBlue has defaulted on 2 payments for the South Terminal in MCO, which is totally fine with him because they are buying JetBlue and will put them out if their misery. He also said the JetBlue product will cease to exist once southwest takes over.

It’s amazing what you learn about your own airline when you commute out of uniform.


Ahaha that’s a good one! I sure hope we don’t get bought by Southwest. I do not want to work 16 legs a day.


You do realize WN has far shorter duty days than B6 right? And for like double the pay.

Say what?
 
CobaltScar
Posts: 627
Joined: Thu Mar 23, 2017 2:30 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Feb 24, 2020 3:01 am

JoseSalazar wrote:
CobaltScar wrote:
iamjoeym wrote:

Ahaha that’s a good one! I sure hope we don’t get bought by Southwest. I do not want to work 16 legs a day.


You do realize WN has far shorter duty days than B6 right? And for like double the pay.

Say what?


WN has a max scheduled duty day of 10.5 hours, B6 uses the FAR max of 14 hours. So I think its funny when people imply WN work harder and longer days. Fake News.
 
JoseSalazar
Posts: 166
Joined: Mon Oct 14, 2019 3:18 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Feb 24, 2020 3:19 am

CobaltScar wrote:
JoseSalazar wrote:
CobaltScar wrote:

You do realize WN has far shorter duty days than B6 right? And for like double the pay.

Say what?


WN has a max scheduled duty day of 10.5 hours, B6 uses the FAR max of 14 hours. So I think its funny when people imply WN work harder and longer days. Fake News.


Where are you getting 10.5 hours? And double the pay? Have you compared pay rates?

The following is straight from the current SWAPA pilot contract, section 5.D.2.F. Did something change?

Contractual Duty Period Chart
Report Time Maximum Duty Period Scheduled Maximum Duty Period Actual
0200-0359 10 Hours 12 Hours
0400-0559 12 Hours 14 Hours
0600-1059 13 Hours 15 Hours
1100-1459 12 Hours 14 Hours
1500-1959 11 Hours 13 Hours
2000-0159 9 Hours 11 Hours
 
BlueBaller
Posts: 57
Joined: Sun Sep 01, 2019 8:07 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Feb 24, 2020 4:47 am

tphuang wrote:
Actually, they will already be at 185 by this summer. I've been estimating that they'd hit 200 sometimes in 2021. And then after, about 5 to 10 extra flight a year. So 203 to 207 by 2022 would be a little below my expectations. Maybe the JFK slot stuff took some steam off BOS growth. I'm hoping that MCO base doesn't have to wait too long for their growth.


That 180 is an all time peak current to the day. Email pointed out further speaks throughout the year, culminating with ~205 for 2022, so sure, 185 for the summer and so on and so forth. Either way they're on track to fulfill BOS200 and then some.
 
Abeam79
Posts: 323
Joined: Thu Jul 03, 2014 3:16 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Feb 24, 2020 5:10 am

Who cares, WN will not buy B6,that ship has sailed long ago. You think with all the loss in revenue at WN with the MAX8 schedule cuts they want to shell out billions to buy another airline that has a loyal customer base and willing to alienate them? This so called pilot in the MCO bus, if this story is even true, is proof that it would be a disaster. B6 and WN have very different products, and if this happens and they "do away with the B6 product" they can kiss BOS and NYC goodbye. Cause those folks aren't going to go on a WN yahoo product, they will flock to DL/AA/UA and they will make those markets a big fail for WN. Just look at ATL right now. Not so hot after they took over FL. All those FL folks walked right over to DL, and the ATL station is a shell of what FL had
 
CobaltScar
Posts: 627
Joined: Thu Mar 23, 2017 2:30 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Feb 24, 2020 5:48 am

JoseSalazar wrote:
CobaltScar wrote:
JoseSalazar wrote:
Say what?


WN has a max scheduled duty day of 10.5 hours, B6 uses the FAR max of 14 hours. So I think its funny when people imply WN work harder and longer days. Fake News.


Where are you getting 10.5 hours? And double the pay? Have you compared pay rates?

The following is straight from the current SWAPA pilot contract, section 5.D.2.F. Did something change?

Contractual Duty Period Chart
Report Time Maximum Duty Period Scheduled Maximum Duty Period Actual
0200-0359 10 Hours 12 Hours
0400-0559 12 Hours 14 Hours
0600-1059 13 Hours 15 Hours
1100-1459 12 Hours 14 Hours
1500-1959 11 Hours 13 Hours
2000-0159 9 Hours 11 Hours


I'm talking about the FAs, you know, the ones doing physical customer facing work for 14+ hours on their feet. B6 works them much harder and longer than WN, for less pay.
 
BlueBaller
Posts: 57
Joined: Sun Sep 01, 2019 8:07 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Feb 24, 2020 6:40 am

CobaltScar wrote:
JoseSalazar wrote:
CobaltScar wrote:

You do realize WN has far shorter duty days than B6 right? And for like double the pay.

Say what?


WN has a max scheduled duty day of 10.5 hours, B6 uses the FAR max of 14 hours. So I think its funny when people imply WN work harder and longer days. Fake News.


Straight from Table B Max Flight Duty Periods for Unaugmented Operations in the B6 Crew Services Manual:

Start Time. Max FDP (in hours) Based on Flight Segments
<><><><><>1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7.
0000-0359. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9
0400-0459. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 9. 9
0500-0559. 12. 12. 12. 12. 11.5. 11. 10.5
0600-0659. 13. 13. 12. 12. 11.5. 11. 10.5
0700-1159. 14. 14. 13. 13. 12.5. 12. 11.5
1200-1259. 13. 13. 13. 13. 12.5. 12. 11.5
1300-1659. 12. 12. 12. 12. 11.5. 11. 10.5
1700-2159. 12. 12. 11. 11. 10. 9. 9
2200-2259. 11. 11. 10. 10. 9. 9. 9.
2300-2359. 10. 10. 10. 9. 9. 9. 9

JETBLUE AIRWAYS PAYSCALES: A320/321
Captain.
Year

(12) 264.
(6) 245.
(1) 230.

First Officer
Year

(12) 177
(6) 157
(1) 88


SOUTHWEST AIRLINES PAYSCALES: B737
Captain.
Year

(12) 274.
(6) 256.
(1) 241.

First Officer
Year

(12) 191
(6) 171
(1) 84

So as you can see for yourself, the only time JetBlue pilots can even work 14 hr FDPs is if they duty on between 0700-1159 and can only fly 2 segments during that calendar day. As far as pay, top Captains are within 4% of Southwest, FOs are within 8%. Maximum earnings fluctuate based on soft time pick ups but rest assured the average Southwest pilot isn't making 2x what a JetBlue pilot is. Are we done here?
 
JoseSalazar
Posts: 166
Joined: Mon Oct 14, 2019 3:18 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Feb 24, 2020 11:58 am

CobaltScar wrote:
JoseSalazar wrote:
CobaltScar wrote:

WN has a max scheduled duty day of 10.5 hours, B6 uses the FAR max of 14 hours. So I think its funny when people imply WN work harder and longer days. Fake News.


Where are you getting 10.5 hours? And double the pay? Have you compared pay rates?

The following is straight from the current SWAPA pilot contract, section 5.D.2.F. Did something change?

Contractual Duty Period Chart
Report Time Maximum Duty Period Scheduled Maximum Duty Period Actual
0200-0359 10 Hours 12 Hours
0400-0559 12 Hours 14 Hours
0600-1059 13 Hours 15 Hours
1100-1459 12 Hours 14 Hours
1500-1959 11 Hours 13 Hours
2000-0159 9 Hours 11 Hours


I'm talking about the FAs, you know, the ones doing physical customer facing work for 14+ hours on their feet. B6 works them much harder and longer than WN, for less pay.

Wait a second. We were just talking about pilots having a conversation in MCO about airline futures there, and the post you replied to and quoted was about a pilot saying he didn’t want to work like southwest pilots work...then you say they don’t work hard and call it fake news, I call you out with facts, then you say you were talking about FAs? What???
 
CaptCoolHand
Posts: 81
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2018 12:24 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Feb 24, 2020 2:06 pm

CobaltScar wrote:
JoseSalazar wrote:
CobaltScar wrote:

WN has a max scheduled duty day of 10.5 hours, B6 uses the FAR max of 14 hours. So I think its funny when people imply WN work harder and longer days. Fake News.


Where are you getting 10.5 hours? And double the pay? Have you compared pay rates?

The following is straight from the current SWAPA pilot contract, section 5.D.2.F. Did something change?

Contractual Duty Period Chart
Report Time Maximum Duty Period Scheduled Maximum Duty Period Actual
0200-0359 10 Hours 12 Hours
0400-0559 12 Hours 14 Hours
0600-1059 13 Hours 15 Hours
1100-1459 12 Hours 14 Hours
1500-1959 11 Hours 13 Hours
2000-0159 9 Hours 11 Hours


I'm talking about the FAs, you know, the ones doing physical customer facing work for 14+ hours on their feet. B6 works them much harder and longer than WN, for less pay.


LoL, this explains so much. Bwahahahaha
 
11C
Posts: 128
Joined: Mon Jun 17, 2019 2:25 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Feb 24, 2020 2:34 pm

CobaltScar wrote:
JoseSalazar wrote:
CobaltScar wrote:

You do realize WN has far shorter duty days than B6 right? And for like double the pay.

Say what?


WN has a max scheduled duty day of 10.5 hours, B6 uses the FAR max of 14 hours. So I think its funny when people imply WN work harder and longer days. Fake News.


Nothing excites me quite like someone using the term “fake news.” It the modern equivalent to fingers in the ears while screaming, “la, la, la.”
 
CobaltScar
Posts: 627
Joined: Thu Mar 23, 2017 2:30 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Feb 24, 2020 2:48 pm

JoseSalazar wrote:
CobaltScar wrote:
JoseSalazar wrote:

Where are you getting 10.5 hours? And double the pay? Have you compared pay rates?

The following is straight from the current SWAPA pilot contract, section 5.D.2.F. Did something change?

Contractual Duty Period Chart
Report Time Maximum Duty Period Scheduled Maximum Duty Period Actual
0200-0359 10 Hours 12 Hours
0400-0559 12 Hours 14 Hours
0600-1059 13 Hours 15 Hours
1100-1459 12 Hours 14 Hours
1500-1959 11 Hours 13 Hours
2000-0159 9 Hours 11 Hours


I'm talking about the FAs, you know, the ones doing physical customer facing work for 14+ hours on their feet. B6 works them much harder and longer than WN, for less pay.

Wait a second. We were just talking about pilots having a conversation in MCO about airline futures there, and the post you replied to and quoted was about a pilot saying he didn’t want to work like southwest pilots work...then you say they don’t work hard and call it fake news, I call you out with facts, then you say you were talking about FAs? What???


How do you know the other person in the south lot van was a pilot?
If you are familiar with the pilot duty limits, than you should of instantly of known I was referring FA duty limits , since they are wildly different.

You seems very surprised at the gulf between duty days at B6 and WN. Glad I could open your eyes.

-Flight Attendant lives matter-
 
uconn99
Posts: 409
Joined: Mon Feb 01, 2016 11:52 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Feb 24, 2020 10:14 pm

FlyHPN wrote:
tphuang wrote:
I'd prefer to see them adding some more P2P flights out of places like BDL/PVD/BUF/RSW to solidify their ff base in these areas. For example, can you see what adding LAX, LAS and London to BDL would do to their ff base in the Conn/Westchester area? That's a very wealthy area.


While I agree with you in principal, I think they would be better off with SWF than BDL. It’s closer to the wealthier areas of Fairfield county and all of Westchester, plus you avoid the traffic prone I95/Merritt corridor. As you mentioned elsewhere in your post, it’ll be all about finding the equipment, plus warrant using valuable spots in places like London and LAX for a niche market.


Hartford has plenty of wealthy suburbs and corporate traffic on its own to make it work and AA is less than daily BDL-LAX now with the max issues but I agree SWF would work better for lower Fairfield county
 
tphuang
Posts: 4642
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Feb 25, 2020 4:43 pm

Recently, I found that you can get more accurate connection data than before, so I attempt to calculate route performance with connection and connection data added in. Not perfect, but this at least tries to not only take into considering % of passengers connecting vs direct and doing a prorated calculation on connection fare for that segment as part of total fare. I also penalized connection itinerary a little more to account for higher cost associated with 2 flights and additional cost of connecting passenger + lower revenue opportunities from one ticket. Against, nothing perfect, but a first step to go beyond just using O&D fares and LF.

Anyhow, a few things I learnt from the data.

FLL looks to be the station with most connection activity. Here is some example of their O&D % on some FLL domestic routes based on fare sample data. Could be a little off.
FLL-LAX - 82% O&D vs 76% for AS, 72% for NK and 54% for AA at MIA
FLL-SFO - 82% O&D vs 69% for UA and 64% for AA at MIA
Not really sure what UA is still doing on this route Their numbers are horrible.
FLL-LAS - 73% O&D vs 84% for NK and 73% for WN
FLL-JAX - 55$ O&D vs 41% for NK and 45% for WN and 70% for AA. Thank goodness NK/WN are gone now. such a bloodbath for a while there
FLL-MSY - 86% O&D vs 65% for NK and 64% for WN. 68% for AA.
FLL-ATL - 41% O&D vs 35% for DL and 60% for NK and 53% for WN. Really high connection here. Not a surprise given the number of low connection fares I saw from B6 out of ATL to Latin America.
FLL-RDU - 57% O&D vs 76% for DL and 66% for NK and 64% for WN. Again I'm surprised they are connecting more than anyone else here.
FLL-ORD - 74% O&D vs 73% for NK and 84% for UA.
FLL-CLE - 82% O&D vs 88% for NK
FLL-RIC - 67% O&D vs 75% for NK

Also, looking at intra-florida routes like FLL/MIA-MCO/TPA, the O&D is in the 20s and 30s for the operating carriers. If they want to add conectivity, they could add these flights, but I would imagine these routes only make sense when they are ready to fly to Brazil out of FLL. I can't imagine WN sticking around much longer on them.

In comparison, JFK is very heavily O&D - over 85% on most routes that's more than 2 hours of flying out. Also on most routes, they are the most heavy O&D airline.

Even out of BOS, they are very heavy O&D still outside of maybe BOS-JFK/SYR/. They are over 85% O&D on a lot of routes even short business ones.

If anything, I'd expect launch of TATL flights to change the profiles a little bit out of BOS.
 
tphuang
Posts: 4642
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Feb 26, 2020 3:12 pm

The other thing I took a look at is connection adjusted yields for JetBlue across the various NY area airports. For example, do JFK numbers still look good once adjusted for connection opportunities. For that I took a look at the markets they all fly to. Keep in mind that my connection% is rough estimated based on fare itineraries which is a 10% sample. And connection fares are also using a prorated formula I came up with that penalizes the higher cost of connections. We only have data to domestic connections on the same carrier, so i'm making the assumption that is comparable to international connection fares. As a point of comparison. I used DL at JFK/LGA and UA at EWR to show how well they do in these markets.

BOS.
CityPairCarrier LF Dep PerFlt NSFare ConnF % NS Yield Vs B6
BOSLGA B6 58.18 0837 100.1 165.78 087.54 79.96 087.33 100
BOSLGA DL 71.06 2352 091.0 211.80 078.59 58.45 111.18 127.31
BOSJFK B6 72.05 0967 101.8 186.59 076.61 34.76 082.74 100
BOSJFK DL 78.99 1348 092.2 179.85 071.88 35.16 086.77 104.87
BOSEWR B6 60.16 0958 100.2 161.51 081.37 78.19 086.65 100
BOSEWR UA 77.64 1816 152.4 215.46 080.05 44.89 109.35 126.2

So after adjusting for connections, B6 numbers out of LGA/EWR look a lot better since DL/UA both have very high connection dependent routes here. Also, B6 on JFK-BOS is also heavily connection dependent and looks like weakest route after this. Without connection data, JFK-BOS looked like the far and way best performing route of the 3. Now, I see all 3 as below system average routes just in terms of yields.

DL on BOS-LGA no longer looks like an above average route after adjusting for connection traffic and the heavy regional usage. UA's numbers on BOS-EWR look pretty good since they are running all mainline on there. It'd be interesting to see how this changes when B6 goes up to 10x daily. I'd expect their Non-stop fare numbers to go up, but they'd probably have lower Load factor or NS% to fill up the cabins. And given that EWR/LGA perform about the same for similar number of flights, I'd hope they also continue to add to EWR after the current JFK slot issues go away.

FLL,
CityPairCarrier LF Dep PerFlt NSFare ConnF % NS Yield Vs B6
FLLJFK B6 88.21 1096 188.6 178.74 134.69 74.43 147.73 100
FLLJFK DL 89.28 0662 174.6 169.87 110.24 82.8 142.50 96.46
FLLLGA B6 86.07 0733 144.3 180.47 123.04 88.86 149.83 100
FLLLGA DL 88.35 0821 163.3 179.82 117.33 91.74 154.31 102.98
EWRFLL B6 90.34 0563 151.2 184.92 131.39 81.05 157.89 100
EWRFLL UA 90.01 1020 174.9 183.41 128.95 85.97 158.21 100.2
The surprising part for me here is that connection traffic on JFK-FLL didn't hurt its oveall yield that much. Given the heavy usage of A321s out of JFK and the higher capacity there, it's still the most profitable of the 3 routes. Also, it's surprising that EWR-FLL has higher yield than LGA-FLL. Given their yields are about the same as UA out of EWR (albeit on lower capacity aircraft), it shows B6 does have quite a bit of pricing power across the hudson. As FLL lose flights out of LGA to BOS this summer, JFK and EWR are getting most of that capacity. I'd expect that to be good for their profitability. Again with Fare Option 2.0 and most refreshed A320s entering service, they should be gaining in competitiveness on routes like EWR-FLL.

MCO,
CityPairCarrier LF Dep PerFlt NSFare ConnF % NS Yield Vs B6
JFKMCO B6 86.49 1513 183.6 174.72 116.65 86.48 144.33 100
JFKMCO DL 89.52 0808 185.5 179.50 107.11 74.97 144.47 100.1
LGAMCO B6 86.51 0713 150.7 169.36 127.58 95.58 144.92 100
LGAMCO DL 87.90 0914 189.8 171.13 109.98 90.11 145.11 100.13
EWRMCO B6 89.59 1033 152.5 164.65 108.67 94.77 144.88 100
EWRMCO UA 87.73 1576 169.3 181.59 116.23 81.94 148.96 102.82
Similar to FLL, JFK numbers here still look the best after factoring in connections. Notice how both DL and UA have upgauged on all their NYC area MCO flights. That's something B6 would need to do to keep its cost advantage on them. As a whole, both LGA/EWR-MCO are still profitable routes, although not as much as FLL.

PBI,
CityPairCarrier LF Dep PerFlt NSFare ConnF % NS Yield Vs B6
JFKPBI B6 84.85 0467 174.4 162.33 136.18 89.26 135.36 100
JFKPBI DL 88.05 0223 132.9 167.67 110.28 84.62 139.86 103.32
LGAPBI B6 85.94 0521 151.5 171.39 115.72 98.84 146.74 100
LGAPBI DL 87.10 0671 133.4 185.70 119.15 87.37 154.43 105.24
EWRPBI B6 85.28 0353 152.9 170.37 186.65 96.68 145.76 100
EWRPBI UA 87.22 0754 157.7 188.45 135.36 85.17 157.50 108.05
The numbers are a lot closer here after adjusting for connections and aircraft Costs. Keep in mind that DL is still running mostly small narrowbody here and EWR looks to be medium sized narrowbody, so B6 performance on EWR/LGA-PBI look pretty reasonable.

SJU,
CityPairCarrier LF Dep PerFlt NSFare ConnF % NS Yield Vs B6
JFKSJU B6 82.76 1155 182.3 217.77 156.04 84.57 172.35 100
JFKSJU DL 88.63 0553 179.9 218.22 136.37 76.54 176.40 102.35
EWRSJU B6 87.76 0433 150.6 224.97 207.77 90.8 196.04 100
EWRSJU UA 89.72 0281 219.6 245.22 136.74 63.35 184.35 94.04
this to me is quite interesting. After adjusting for connections, B6 is doing quite well out of EWR-SJU even accounting for the usage of medium narrowbody aircraft vs the more A321s on JFK-SJU. To me, it looks like they did not running enough VFR flights out of EWR last summer and not enough with A321s. That explains why they've added so many PR/DR VFR flights out of EWR this summer.

Overall, their performances out of EWR look pretty good vs JFK/LGA. They should continue to add to EWR if they can. EWR-FLL looks seriously underserved based on the data we have available. And it appears to me that LGA actually does the worst to Florida. If I were JetBlue, I'd use whatever additional LGA slots I get on short haul business routes. To me, there is no need to keep more than FLL around at LGA. They already have abundance of PBI flights out of EWR/HPN/JFK that serve those who live in Brooklyn/Long Island, Westchester, CT and central/western Jersey that own second homes in west palm beach. I don't think they are losing much if they drop LGA-PBI. MCO also seem to do better out of JFK and just as well out of EWR.

Also, based on these data, I think EWR can support other routes that do well out of JFK like KIN, daily BGI, MBJ, LAS, MSY and of course mint stuff.
 
Buffalomatt1027
Posts: 434
Joined: Sun Aug 20, 2017 4:02 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Feb 26, 2020 9:48 pm

tphuang wrote:
On the topic of focus city, it seems to me that while it's important to look for new focus cities, their existing focus cities have a lot of work that's needed. Taking a look at their projects:
BOS - Needs to grow another 60 flights (including 15 TATL ones) and upgauge a lot of the flights to A220 and A321NEO. That will take away a lot of their growth in the next 5 years.
NYC - JFK almost maxed out in slot usage. But if those unused AA slots become available or slot goes away in the next couple of years. They need to try add as many flight as they can. And of course, the effort to redevelop T6/7 is going to be a huge revenue generator in the long term, but is going to cost them a little in short term. And there is still growth in EWR if JFK is maxed out.
FLL - BOS/NYC growth means no growth here until sometimes in 2020 at least. And they need to go from peak 110 flights a day now to 140 flights a day or more. So, another 30 flights at minimum to counter NK growth. This is the focus city most at risk from NK expansion. They need to add another 10 flights a year to make this happen.
MCO - South terminal is apparently good to go next year. Where are they getting the resources to expand here. Let's say they focus on NYC/BOS until end of 2021, Florida gets attention again by 2022. Only half of the A321 deliveries from 2022 to 2025 are non-LR/XLR type. Again, not a lot of resource for them to grow MCO rapidly to counter NK expansion here either. But theoretically, they need to go at least from peak 70 now to peak 100 by 2025. That would be about 7 or 8 additional flights a year.
LAX - This is the one i'm curious to see. I think they can go from peak 22 this summer to 40 if they get those 5 gates. With A220, that's possible to do profitably. Still seems like they can't really compete here unless they get even more gates than that. But let's just say they get those gates by 2022, I see some flights shifting over from LGB. But for the rest, they need more aircraft also. Let's say they shift 10 flights over from LGB, still would need to add 2 or 3 flights a year until 2025.

I'm not sure they have the resources to even do all these additions, let alone adding another focus city.

I'd prefer to see them adding some more P2P flights out of places like BDL/PVD/BUF/RSW to solidify their ff base in these areas. For example, can you see what adding LAX, LAS and London to BDL would do to their ff base in the Conn/Westchester area? That's a very wealthy area.

Things could look a lot different 5 years from now. I'd imagine a large recession would happen over the time which could change the landscape a lot.

Although, the addition of A220 does give them a shot to buildup new stuff. Assuming that their existing projects are in a good position.

To have an easier buildup, they should look for cities without large legacy or WN presence that have gate availability. That would reduce possibility to some second tier cities like CLE, PIT or IND. Or they could try MKE if they want to get a middle of the country focus city. The problem is that all the really desirable growth type of cities are focused by legacies and WN already. Doesn't make sense to go into SJC/AUS when everyone wants to get in there. Doesn't make sense to go into RDU when DL is so invested in there.


B6 should have more P2P flights to other destinations out of BUF. Their BUF - LA flight which is the only unique route BUF has compared to some medium size b6 cities and it does really well. The only b6 flight out of BUF that struggles is BOS but its still a solid feeder for BOS.

The A220 would be perfect fit for the airport too.
 
Nicknuzzii
Posts: 905
Joined: Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:57 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Feb 27, 2020 12:57 am

tphuang wrote:
The other thing I took a look at is connection adjusted yields for JetBlue across the various NY area airports. For example, do JFK numbers still look good once adjusted for connection opportunities. For that I took a look at the markets they all fly to. Keep in mind that my connection% is rough estimated based on fare itineraries which is a 10% sample. And connection fares are also using a prorated formula I came up with that penalizes the higher cost of connections. We only have data to domestic connections on the same carrier, so i'm making the assumption that is comparable to international connection fares. As a point of comparison. I used DL at JFK/LGA and UA at EWR to show how well they do in these markets.

BOS.
CityPairCarrier LF Dep PerFlt NSFare ConnF % NS Yield Vs B6
BOSLGA B6 58.18 0837 100.1 165.78 087.54 79.96 087.33 100
BOSLGA DL 71.06 2352 091.0 211.80 078.59 58.45 111.18 127.31
BOSJFK B6 72.05 0967 101.8 186.59 076.61 34.76 082.74 100
BOSJFK DL 78.99 1348 092.2 179.85 071.88 35.16 086.77 104.87
BOSEWR B6 60.16 0958 100.2 161.51 081.37 78.19 086.65 100
BOSEWR UA 77.64 1816 152.4 215.46 080.05 44.89 109.35 126.2

So after adjusting for connections, B6 numbers out of LGA/EWR look a lot better since DL/UA both have very high connection dependent routes here. Also, B6 on JFK-BOS is also heavily connection dependent and looks like weakest route after this. Without connection data, JFK-BOS looked like the far and way best performing route of the 3. Now, I see all 3 as below system average routes just in terms of yields.

DL on BOS-LGA no longer looks like an above average route after adjusting for connection traffic and the heavy regional usage. UA's numbers on BOS-EWR look pretty good since they are running all mainline on there. It'd be interesting to see how this changes when B6 goes up to 10x daily. I'd expect their Non-stop fare numbers to go up, but they'd probably have lower Load factor or NS% to fill up the cabins. And given that EWR/LGA perform about the same for similar number of flights, I'd hope they also continue to add to EWR after the current JFK slot issues go away.

FLL,
CityPairCarrier LF Dep PerFlt NSFare ConnF % NS Yield Vs B6
FLLJFK B6 88.21 1096 188.6 178.74 134.69 74.43 147.73 100
FLLJFK DL 89.28 0662 174.6 169.87 110.24 82.8 142.50 96.46
FLLLGA B6 86.07 0733 144.3 180.47 123.04 88.86 149.83 100
FLLLGA DL 88.35 0821 163.3 179.82 117.33 91.74 154.31 102.98
EWRFLL B6 90.34 0563 151.2 184.92 131.39 81.05 157.89 100
EWRFLL UA 90.01 1020 174.9 183.41 128.95 85.97 158.21 100.2
The surprising part for me here is that connection traffic on JFK-FLL didn't hurt its oveall yield that much. Given the heavy usage of A321s out of JFK and the higher capacity there, it's still the most profitable of the 3 routes. Also, it's surprising that EWR-FLL has higher yield than LGA-FLL. Given their yields are about the same as UA out of EWR (albeit on lower capacity aircraft), it shows B6 does have quite a bit of pricing power across the hudson. As FLL lose flights out of LGA to BOS this summer, JFK and EWR are getting most of that capacity. I'd expect that to be good for their profitability. Again with Fare Option 2.0 and most refreshed A320s entering service, they should be gaining in competitiveness on routes like EWR-FLL.

MCO,
CityPairCarrier LF Dep PerFlt NSFare ConnF % NS Yield Vs B6
JFKMCO B6 86.49 1513 183.6 174.72 116.65 86.48 144.33 100
JFKMCO DL 89.52 0808 185.5 179.50 107.11 74.97 144.47 100.1
LGAMCO B6 86.51 0713 150.7 169.36 127.58 95.58 144.92 100
LGAMCO DL 87.90 0914 189.8 171.13 109.98 90.11 145.11 100.13
EWRMCO B6 89.59 1033 152.5 164.65 108.67 94.77 144.88 100
EWRMCO UA 87.73 1576 169.3 181.59 116.23 81.94 148.96 102.82
Similar to FLL, JFK numbers here still look the best after factoring in connections. Notice how both DL and UA have upgauged on all their NYC area MCO flights. That's something B6 would need to do to keep its cost advantage on them. As a whole, both LGA/EWR-MCO are still profitable routes, although not as much as FLL.

PBI,
CityPairCarrier LF Dep PerFlt NSFare ConnF % NS Yield Vs B6
JFKPBI B6 84.85 0467 174.4 162.33 136.18 89.26 135.36 100
JFKPBI DL 88.05 0223 132.9 167.67 110.28 84.62 139.86 103.32
LGAPBI B6 85.94 0521 151.5 171.39 115.72 98.84 146.74 100
LGAPBI DL 87.10 0671 133.4 185.70 119.15 87.37 154.43 105.24
EWRPBI B6 85.28 0353 152.9 170.37 186.65 96.68 145.76 100
EWRPBI UA 87.22 0754 157.7 188.45 135.36 85.17 157.50 108.05
The numbers are a lot closer here after adjusting for connections and aircraft Costs. Keep in mind that DL is still running mostly small narrowbody here and EWR looks to be medium sized narrowbody, so B6 performance on EWR/LGA-PBI look pretty reasonable.

SJU,
CityPairCarrier LF Dep PerFlt NSFare ConnF % NS Yield Vs B6
JFKSJU B6 82.76 1155 182.3 217.77 156.04 84.57 172.35 100
JFKSJU DL 88.63 0553 179.9 218.22 136.37 76.54 176.40 102.35
EWRSJU B6 87.76 0433 150.6 224.97 207.77 90.8 196.04 100
EWRSJU UA 89.72 0281 219.6 245.22 136.74 63.35 184.35 94.04
this to me is quite interesting. After adjusting for connections, B6 is doing quite well out of EWR-SJU even accounting for the usage of medium narrowbody aircraft vs the more A321s on JFK-SJU. To me, it looks like they did not running enough VFR flights out of EWR last summer and not enough with A321s. That explains why they've added so many PR/DR VFR flights out of EWR this summer.

Overall, their performances out of EWR look pretty good vs JFK/LGA. They should continue to add to EWR if they can. EWR-FLL looks seriously underserved based on the data we have available. And it appears to me that LGA actually does the worst to Florida. If I were JetBlue, I'd use whatever additional LGA slots I get on short haul business routes. To me, there is no need to keep more than FLL around at LGA. They already have abundance of PBI flights out of EWR/HPN/JFK that serve those who live in Brooklyn/Long Island, Westchester, CT and central/western Jersey that own second homes in west palm beach. I don't think they are losing much if they drop LGA-PBI. MCO also seem to do better out of JFK and just as well out of EWR.

Also, based on these data, I think EWR can support other routes that do well out of JFK like KIN, daily BGI, MBJ, LAS, MSY and of course mint stuff.



Thank you so much for sharing this data! May I ask, when is this data for?
 
tphuang
Posts: 4642
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Feb 27, 2020 1:02 am

Nicknuzzii wrote:
tphuang wrote:
The other thing I took a look at is connection adjusted yields for JetBlue across the various NY area airports. For example, do JFK numbers still look good once adjusted for connection opportunities. For that I took a look at the markets they all fly to. Keep in mind that my connection% is rough estimated based on fare itineraries which is a 10% sample. And connection fares are also using a prorated formula I came up with that penalizes the higher cost of connections. We only have data to domestic connections on the same carrier, so i'm making the assumption that is comparable to international connection fares. As a point of comparison. I used DL at JFK/LGA and UA at EWR to show how well they do in these markets.

BOS.
CityPairCarrier LF Dep PerFlt NSFare ConnF % NS Yield Vs B6
BOSLGA B6 58.18 0837 100.1 165.78 087.54 79.96 087.33 100
BOSLGA DL 71.06 2352 091.0 211.80 078.59 58.45 111.18 127.31
BOSJFK B6 72.05 0967 101.8 186.59 076.61 34.76 082.74 100
BOSJFK DL 78.99 1348 092.2 179.85 071.88 35.16 086.77 104.87
BOSEWR B6 60.16 0958 100.2 161.51 081.37 78.19 086.65 100
BOSEWR UA 77.64 1816 152.4 215.46 080.05 44.89 109.35 126.2

So after adjusting for connections, B6 numbers out of LGA/EWR look a lot better since DL/UA both have very high connection dependent routes here. Also, B6 on JFK-BOS is also heavily connection dependent and looks like weakest route after this. Without connection data, JFK-BOS looked like the far and way best performing route of the 3. Now, I see all 3 as below system average routes just in terms of yields.

DL on BOS-LGA no longer looks like an above average route after adjusting for connection traffic and the heavy regional usage. UA's numbers on BOS-EWR look pretty good since they are running all mainline on there. It'd be interesting to see how this changes when B6 goes up to 10x daily. I'd expect their Non-stop fare numbers to go up, but they'd probably have lower Load factor or NS% to fill up the cabins. And given that EWR/LGA perform about the same for similar number of flights, I'd hope they also continue to add to EWR after the current JFK slot issues go away.

FLL,
CityPairCarrier LF Dep PerFlt NSFare ConnF % NS Yield Vs B6
FLLJFK B6 88.21 1096 188.6 178.74 134.69 74.43 147.73 100
FLLJFK DL 89.28 0662 174.6 169.87 110.24 82.8 142.50 96.46
FLLLGA B6 86.07 0733 144.3 180.47 123.04 88.86 149.83 100
FLLLGA DL 88.35 0821 163.3 179.82 117.33 91.74 154.31 102.98
EWRFLL B6 90.34 0563 151.2 184.92 131.39 81.05 157.89 100
EWRFLL UA 90.01 1020 174.9 183.41 128.95 85.97 158.21 100.2
The surprising part for me here is that connection traffic on JFK-FLL didn't hurt its oveall yield that much. Given the heavy usage of A321s out of JFK and the higher capacity there, it's still the most profitable of the 3 routes. Also, it's surprising that EWR-FLL has higher yield than LGA-FLL. Given their yields are about the same as UA out of EWR (albeit on lower capacity aircraft), it shows B6 does have quite a bit of pricing power across the hudson. As FLL lose flights out of LGA to BOS this summer, JFK and EWR are getting most of that capacity. I'd expect that to be good for their profitability. Again with Fare Option 2.0 and most refreshed A320s entering service, they should be gaining in competitiveness on routes like EWR-FLL.

MCO,
CityPairCarrier LF Dep PerFlt NSFare ConnF % NS Yield Vs B6
JFKMCO B6 86.49 1513 183.6 174.72 116.65 86.48 144.33 100
JFKMCO DL 89.52 0808 185.5 179.50 107.11 74.97 144.47 100.1
LGAMCO B6 86.51 0713 150.7 169.36 127.58 95.58 144.92 100
LGAMCO DL 87.90 0914 189.8 171.13 109.98 90.11 145.11 100.13
EWRMCO B6 89.59 1033 152.5 164.65 108.67 94.77 144.88 100
EWRMCO UA 87.73 1576 169.3 181.59 116.23 81.94 148.96 102.82
Similar to FLL, JFK numbers here still look the best after factoring in connections. Notice how both DL and UA have upgauged on all their NYC area MCO flights. That's something B6 would need to do to keep its cost advantage on them. As a whole, both LGA/EWR-MCO are still profitable routes, although not as much as FLL.

PBI,
CityPairCarrier LF Dep PerFlt NSFare ConnF % NS Yield Vs B6
JFKPBI B6 84.85 0467 174.4 162.33 136.18 89.26 135.36 100
JFKPBI DL 88.05 0223 132.9 167.67 110.28 84.62 139.86 103.32
LGAPBI B6 85.94 0521 151.5 171.39 115.72 98.84 146.74 100
LGAPBI DL 87.10 0671 133.4 185.70 119.15 87.37 154.43 105.24
EWRPBI B6 85.28 0353 152.9 170.37 186.65 96.68 145.76 100
EWRPBI UA 87.22 0754 157.7 188.45 135.36 85.17 157.50 108.05
The numbers are a lot closer here after adjusting for connections and aircraft Costs. Keep in mind that DL is still running mostly small narrowbody here and EWR looks to be medium sized narrowbody, so B6 performance on EWR/LGA-PBI look pretty reasonable.

SJU,
CityPairCarrier LF Dep PerFlt NSFare ConnF % NS Yield Vs B6
JFKSJU B6 82.76 1155 182.3 217.77 156.04 84.57 172.35 100
JFKSJU DL 88.63 0553 179.9 218.22 136.37 76.54 176.40 102.35
EWRSJU B6 87.76 0433 150.6 224.97 207.77 90.8 196.04 100
EWRSJU UA 89.72 0281 219.6 245.22 136.74 63.35 184.35 94.04
this to me is quite interesting. After adjusting for connections, B6 is doing quite well out of EWR-SJU even accounting for the usage of medium narrowbody aircraft vs the more A321s on JFK-SJU. To me, it looks like they did not running enough VFR flights out of EWR last summer and not enough with A321s. That explains why they've added so many PR/DR VFR flights out of EWR this summer.

Overall, their performances out of EWR look pretty good vs JFK/LGA. They should continue to add to EWR if they can. EWR-FLL looks seriously underserved based on the data we have available. And it appears to me that LGA actually does the worst to Florida. If I were JetBlue, I'd use whatever additional LGA slots I get on short haul business routes. To me, there is no need to keep more than FLL around at LGA. They already have abundance of PBI flights out of EWR/HPN/JFK that serve those who live in Brooklyn/Long Island, Westchester, CT and central/western Jersey that own second homes in west palm beach. I don't think they are losing much if they drop LGA-PBI. MCO also seem to do better out of JFK and just as well out of EWR.

Also, based on these data, I think EWR can support other routes that do well out of JFK like KIN, daily BGI, MBJ, LAS, MSY and of course mint stuff.



Thank you so much for sharing this data! May I ask, when is this data for?

this is Q3 data. Q4 data will be out early April.
 
tphuang
Posts: 4642
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Feb 29, 2020 2:13 pm

Long week. Both JetBlue and Alaska this week announced that they are waiving change/cancel fees from the next couple of weeks for flight up until June 1st. No doubt in my mind, this indicates a sudden drop in demand for domestic travel that start this week. A lot of firms have been revising corporate travel policy to tell its employees to consider not doing any domestic travel even and definitely not flying to Asia or Italy. At this pace of growth, rest of continental Europe (especially France and Germany) might be facing elevated levels soon too.

I would think the most effected airlines from this will be UA and DL given their higher level of flying on their own metal to Asia and Continental Europe along with their dependence on corporate travel spending. But I think as a whole, we are going to see lower level of domestic growth for this summer or even cutting back. JonNYC, a very good source on AA stuff, has mentioned that there will be domestic cuts coming at AA. Given what has happened this week, that seems like the obvious move for every airline. AA, given it's low stock prices and margins, is probably the first that will do so, but other airlines are going to follow I think.

Given the decline in corporate travel, leisure travel, conferences, trade shows and risk to global trading, there is a fairly high likelihood of slowdown this year that kicks into recession. I've been waiting to see what the domestic carriers do in the even of dramatic slowdown in travel, esepcially from corporate travel spending. We are about to see that soon. There is a whole list of routes that I know are under perfoming for various carriers that I have been documenting here. We will see which ones stick around.
 
USAavdork
Posts: 78
Joined: Sat Mar 11, 2017 7:35 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Feb 29, 2020 5:28 pm

Business travel is definitely going to be affected by this. There is a huge trade show in Anaheim, CA this coming week- 80,000 people attending. Some of the biggest companies are already pulling out and my partners company will make a decision Monday morning. Businesses are giving their employees the option to travel or not. I think business routes are going to take a huge hot, especially depending on how long this last.

With that said, Tphuang, in your opinion, what would could you see B6 cut? Do you think they are going to be hot hard by this?
 
tphuang
Posts: 4642
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Feb 29, 2020 5:55 pm

USAavdork wrote:
Business travel is definitely going to be affected by this. There is a huge trade show in Anaheim, CA this coming week- 80,000 people attending. Some of the biggest companies are already pulling out and my partners company will make a decision Monday morning. Businesses are giving their employees the option to travel or not. I think business routes are going to take a huge hot, especially depending on how long this last.

With that said, Tphuang, in your opinion, what would could you see B6 cut? Do you think they are going to be hot hard by this?


Exactly, the hysteria over this is getting out of control. Up until now, B6 had said their bookings have not been affected. And then this week, they suddenly started offering the waiver/cancel policy.

It really depends on how long this lasts. They have already cut a lot of obvious under performing routes. Most of the remaining underperforming stuff are routes ran for political reasons or for network building reasons (especially at BOS). The easy cuts that are left are probably a lot of MCO ones like MCO-LAX/AUS/ATL, more LGB stuff, some FLL stuff that they are struggling in like HAV/PHX/SXM/SLC. I think they are going to keep JFK and BOS stuff more or less in tact. I've already discussed which JFK routes are weak, so I won't rehash myself. If things gets really bad, I could see BOS-MSP get cut or become seasonal. BOS-SYR/ROC can't really support 2 carriers. So either AA or B6 quit on them eventually.
 
CobaltScar
Posts: 627
Joined: Thu Mar 23, 2017 2:30 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Feb 29, 2020 7:56 pm

I wonder if we will look back on this period and say that is what ushered in the new round of mergers. First the max issues and now coronavirus.

B6 stock is fast becoming a bargain.
 
tphuang
Posts: 4642
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Mar 01, 2020 1:12 am

Well JBLU maybe down to $4.5 billion, but SAVE is down to $1.95 billion, ALK at 6.2 billion, UAL at $15 billion and AAL is at $8 billion. Everyone is down. And if JBLU have enough cash in the bank and things get bad in the airline industry, maybe it's time for them to make a bid for SAVE in a few months if margins start to get tight there. NK has gone on a high growth mode when the airline industry is heading in the wrong direction. Really terrible timing for them.

You keep wanting someone to buy JBLU. Seriously, just give it up. Anything could happen. It's not like JBLU is losing value when everyone else is gaining value.
 
BlueBaller
Posts: 57
Joined: Sun Sep 01, 2019 8:07 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Mar 01, 2020 2:56 am

tphuang wrote:
Well JBLU maybe down to $4.5 billion, but SAVE is down to $1.95 billion, ALK at 6.2 billion, UAL at $15 billion and AAL is at $8 billion. Everyone is down. And if JBLU have enough cash in the bank and things get bad in the airline industry, maybe it's time for them to make a bid for SAVE in a few months if margins start to get tight there. NK has gone on a high growth mode when the airline industry is heading in the wrong direction. Really terrible timing for them.

You keep wanting someone to buy JBLU. Seriously, just give it up. Anything could happen. It's not like JBLU is losing value when everyone else is gaining value.


CobaltScar is an "overworked, underpaid" scarred by (jet)Blue flight attendant that is probably looking for an easy street path to a legacy without having to go through the process of reapplying and starting all over again. A merger with the likes of a United or Delta with a big NYC presence where s/he doesn't have to Blueturn or work 15 hour domestic duty days is where all the motivation lies.
 
User avatar
jfklganyc
Posts: 5773
Joined: Mon Jan 05, 2004 2:31 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Mar 01, 2020 3:10 am

I cant believe the declarations of downturn on this forum

Go to your local mall tomorrow.

People everywhere.

The US isnt China. There isnt going to be a massive lockdown.

At some point this week or next, people will learn to live with the hysteria in their day to day lives...much like the mass shootings during sunday mass or at your local movie theater.

The US just plows on.

AS/NK/F9/B6 and domestic flying is a good spot for this event
 
JoseSalazar
Posts: 166
Joined: Mon Oct 14, 2019 3:18 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Mar 01, 2020 7:58 am

Does the slower travel resulting from COVID-19 fears give B6 an opportunity to push more planes through interior mods faster, including the leased Thomas Cook a321s? I say this since it sounded like the Thomas cook planes would fly around with the Thomas cook interiors for a while and the 320 refurbishment was going to be slowed a bit into 2021. Seems like this could be a good opportunity to go ahead and take care of the cook planes, at least, if the capacity isn’t needed in the system.
 
User avatar
ChrisNH38
Posts: 235
Joined: Fri Sep 06, 2019 10:53 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Mar 01, 2020 2:14 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
I cant believe the declarations of downturn on this forum

Go to your local mall tomorrow.

People everywhere.

The US isnt China. There isnt going to be a massive lockdown.

At some point this week or next, people will learn to live with the hysteria in their day to day lives...much like the mass shootings during sunday mass or at your local movie theater.

The US just plows on.

AS/NK/F9/B6 and domestic flying is a good spot for this event


I agree. In my opinion, this will all subside once the warm weather returns. Indeed, airlines are slowing down schedules into April...not into infinity.
https://my.flightradar24.com/ChrisNH
 
tphuang
Posts: 4642
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Mar 01, 2020 2:24 pm

Well, the downturn in the corporate travel budget is real. It really only just began this week and accelerated the last 2 or 3 days. I don't think the airlines have complete handles on the short term impact yet, but I would expect some near term cuts. After that, we will have to see. Really depends on how these earning calls go.

From this week, JFK ATL gets a 3rd flight for may. Really wish they can make this year round.

BTW one product of this new aa DL battle is that less attention from DL to Boston right now. Which I am sure JetBlue is happy about.
 
727LOVER
Posts: 8585
Joined: Tue Oct 09, 2001 12:22 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Mar 01, 2020 4:26 pm

Here's an article about B6's first 20 years. It was written by a gentleman in one of my Facebook groups.

https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/jetb ... 4U3lAHH3As
"We must accept finite disappointment, but never lose infinite hope." - Martin Luther King, Jr.
 
ClipperGoodwill
Posts: 14
Joined: Mon Oct 21, 2019 8:23 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Mar 01, 2020 5:21 pm

What payments are B6 suppose to be making for the MCO South Terminal? B6 is not building it. They will be a tenant just like any other airline that uses the terminal. The only payments being made concerning the new MCO South Terminal are being made by GOAA, FAA and FDOT.
You can't beat the Experience.
 
CaptCoolHand
Posts: 81
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2018 12:24 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Mar 01, 2020 6:11 pm

ClipperGoodwill wrote:
What payments are B6 suppose to be making for the MCO South Terminal? B6 is not building it. They will be a tenant just like any other airline that uses the terminal. The only payments being made concerning the new MCO South Terminal are being made by GOAA, FAA and FDOT.


There’s no mention of any payments on the 8k or 10k.
I think that was nothing more than a rumor from a bus ride.
 
tphuang
Posts: 4642
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Mar 02, 2020 10:36 pm

Alright, so looking at what's happening in this AA/AS vs DL tussel in SEA, I hope JetBlue route planning department takes this opportunity to stay as far away from this tumble as possible. Getting a partnership with UA would be nice, but that takes time to pull together. Until then, they could do well by keeping a low profile. I think they should not make any new announcements that would not put themselves in crosshair of DL/AA unless they are provoked. As much as I would like to see it, that means don't go into JFK-MSP/DFW. Maybe stick with adding more JFK VFR stuff if they want to expand more there. Amongst new domestic cities, STL seems like the best market to enter out of BOS/JFK. WN with MAX issues and struggle in BOS is not in a great position to hurt JetBlue anywhere.

With the current decline in air travel, I think you will see more AA drops out of JFK and possibly BOS-SYR/ROC. I also think DL will drop JFK-KIN and possibly cut back on JFK-PR/DR VFR flights.
 
Nicknuzzii
Posts: 905
Joined: Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:57 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Mar 02, 2020 10:49 pm

tphuang wrote:
Alright, so looking at what's happening in this AA/AS vs DL tussel in SEA, I hope JetBlue route planning department takes this opportunity to stay as far away from this tumble as possible. Getting a partnership with UA would be nice, but that takes time to pull together. Until then, they could do well by keeping a low profile. I think they should not make any new announcements that would not put themselves in crosshair of DL/AA unless they are provoked. As much as I would like to see it, that means don't go into JFK-MSP/DFW. Maybe stick with adding more JFK VFR stuff if they want to expand more there. Amongst new domestic cities, STL seems like the best market to enter out of BOS/JFK. WN with MAX issues and struggle in BOS is not in a great position to hurt JetBlue anywhere.

With the current decline in air travel, I think you will see more AA drops out of JFK and possibly BOS-SYR/ROC. I also think DL will drop JFK-KIN and possibly cut back on JFK-PR/DR VFR flights.


A JetBlue and United partnership would be nice. I saw how you said it would take long to form but I found it interesting how talks of AA and AS partnership only began in mid December.
 
CobaltScar
Posts: 627
Joined: Thu Mar 23, 2017 2:30 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Mar 02, 2020 11:32 pm

JoseSalazar wrote:
Does the slower travel resulting from COVID-19 fears give B6 an opportunity to push more planes through interior mods faster, including the leased Thomas Cook a321s? I say this since it sounded like the Thomas cook planes would fly around with the Thomas cook interiors for a while and the 320 refurbishment was going to be slowed a bit into 2021. Seems like this could be a good opportunity to go ahead and take care of the cook planes, at least, if the capacity isn’t needed in the system.



Rumor has it the lease company won't allow the interiors to be changed.
 
nine4nine
Posts: 585
Joined: Tue Mar 28, 2017 3:44 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Mar 03, 2020 12:06 am

CobaltScar wrote:
JoseSalazar wrote:
Does the slower travel resulting from COVID-19 fears give B6 an opportunity to push more planes through interior mods faster, including the leased Thomas Cook a321s? I say this since it sounded like the Thomas cook planes would fly around with the Thomas cook interiors for a while and the 320 refurbishment was going to be slowed a bit into 2021. Seems like this could be a good opportunity to go ahead and take care of the cook planes, at least, if the capacity isn’t needed in the system.



Rumor has it the lease company won't allow the interiors to be changed.


Let’s hope they are strictly used on over water Caribbean flights where the IFE is out of coverage range.
717, 727-100, 727-200, 732, 733, 734, 735, 73G, 738, 739, 742, 748, 752, 753, 762, 763, 772, 77W, 787-10, DC9, MD80/88/90, DC10, 319, 220-300, 320, 321, 321n, 332, 333, CS100, CRJ200, Q400, E175, E190, ERJ145, EMB120
 
tphuang
Posts: 4642
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Mar 03, 2020 12:24 am

CobaltScar wrote:
JoseSalazar wrote:
Does the slower travel resulting from COVID-19 fears give B6 an opportunity to push more planes through interior mods faster, including the leased Thomas Cook a321s? I say this since it sounded like the Thomas cook planes would fly around with the Thomas cook interiors for a while and the 320 refurbishment was going to be slowed a bit into 2021. Seems like this could be a good opportunity to go ahead and take care of the cook planes, at least, if the capacity isn’t needed in the system.



Rumor has it the lease company won't allow the interiors to be changed.


What is your source on that? Your recent rumours seem to be pretty off base to say the least. Seems like the email said that it will be modified later but not right away. A lease company not allowing interior to be changed sounds like the dumbest thing a lease company can do.

I think the impending travel slowdown is going to give them opportunity to refurbish these A321s sooner.
 
flyby519
Posts: 1552
Joined: Tue Jul 24, 2007 3:31 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Mar 03, 2020 1:52 am

CobaltScar wrote:
JoseSalazar wrote:
Does the slower travel resulting from COVID-19 fears give B6 an opportunity to push more planes through interior mods faster, including the leased Thomas Cook a321s? I say this since it sounded like the Thomas cook planes would fly around with the Thomas cook interiors for a while and the 320 refurbishment was going to be slowed a bit into 2021. Seems like this could be a good opportunity to go ahead and take care of the cook planes, at least, if the capacity isn’t needed in the system.



Rumor has it the lease company won't allow the interiors to be changed.


That sounds like a BS reason to me.

In all reality I wouldn't be surprised if B6 mgmt actually wanted to fly these 220 seaters around and see the public response. Think of it as a trial balloon for future densification of the B6 321HD config.
 
User avatar
jfklganyc
Posts: 5773
Joined: Mon Jan 05, 2004 2:31 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Mar 03, 2020 2:42 am

The interiors of planes are the least of their worries with this virus

Loads are ugly
 
CobaltScar
Posts: 627
Joined: Thu Mar 23, 2017 2:30 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Mar 03, 2020 2:46 am

tphuang wrote:
What is your source on that? Your recent rumours seem to be pretty off base to say the least.


I've been off base? You are confusing me with others I think. This is a internet discussion board, I don't have to provide citations, especially for reporting exactly what I did: a rumor that at the very most 20 seats will be taken out of these air-frames and thats it. And maybe not even that.

flyby519 wrote:
In all reality I wouldn't be surprised if B6 mgmt actually wanted to fly these 220 seaters around and see the public response. Think of it as a trial balloon for future densification of the B6 321HD config.


This may well be a unintended consequence. They might see how much better CASM is on them and it sets wheels in motion. We will see.
 
DELTA777
Posts: 672
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2000 6:34 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Mar 05, 2020 12:10 am

Expect details regarding temporary network and frequency changes due to COVID-19 soon.
 
tphuang
Posts: 4642
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Mar 05, 2020 12:24 am

That's expected. Maybe they will now have time to actually configure those leased A321s.

I'd imagine there will be some island cutting for sure.
 
nine4nine
Posts: 585
Joined: Tue Mar 28, 2017 3:44 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Mar 05, 2020 8:10 pm

https://thepointsguy.com/news/jetblue-f ... D896E8478F

B6 will announce a 5% cut in the coming days. LGB finally on the chopping block?
717, 727-100, 727-200, 732, 733, 734, 735, 73G, 738, 739, 742, 748, 752, 753, 762, 763, 772, 77W, 787-10, DC9, MD80/88/90, DC10, 319, 220-300, 320, 321, 321n, 332, 333, CS100, CRJ200, Q400, E175, E190, ERJ145, EMB120
 
CaptCoolHand
Posts: 81
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2018 12:24 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Mar 06, 2020 1:41 pm

nine4nine wrote:
https://thepointsguy.com/news/jetblue-flight-cuts-coronavirus/?utm_source=facebook&utm_campaign=facebook&utm_term=Editorial&utm_medium=social&utm_content=33EAE2E6-5EE6-11EA-9F01-24D896E8478F

B6 will announce a 5% cut in the coming days. LGB finally on the chopping block?



I hope they're taking this opportunity to catch up on some much needed housekeeping issues.

This media fed "crisis" will pass just like every other one from H1n1, to swine flu, to avian bird flu, to pick
your last end of the world pandemic that we somehow managed to make it through.
 
11C
Posts: 128
Joined: Mon Jun 17, 2019 2:25 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Mar 06, 2020 4:00 pm

CaptCoolHand wrote:
nine4nine wrote:
https://thepointsguy.com/news/jetblue-flight-cuts-coronavirus/?utm_source=facebook&utm_campaign=facebook&utm_term=Editorial&utm_medium=social&utm_content=33EAE2E6-5EE6-11EA-9F01-24D896E8478F

B6 will announce a 5% cut in the coming days. LGB finally on the chopping block?



I hope they're taking this opportunity to catch up on some much needed housekeeping issues.

This media fed "crisis" will pass just like every other one from H1n1, to swine flu, to avian bird flu, to pick
your last end of the world pandemic that we somehow managed to make it through.


If you read about the Spanish Flu, I think you can see why a pandemic has to be taken seriously. Granted, we have many more tools at our disposal to combat infectious diseases, but taking them lightly is not really a smart option.
  • 1
  • 5
  • 6
  • 7
  • 8
  • 9
  • 17

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos