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StinkyPinky
Posts: 36
Joined: Fri Jan 11, 2019 10:03 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Mar 18, 2020 11:16 pm

LGB is cutting SJC, OAK, and SMF earlier on April 1st, rather than April 28th as previously planned. SFO goes to 1 daily flight (midday). LAS and SLC go to 2 daily. The remaining flights seem unaffected for now.
 
RL757PVD
Posts: 3167
Joined: Fri Dec 03, 1999 2:47 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Mar 18, 2020 11:31 pm

PVD523 wrote:
PVD's reduced April schedule will consist of 1x MCO, FLL, and PBI on Sun, Mon, Thur, Fri, and Sat. Tues and Wed will be 1x MCO only.

That's only a reduction of 4 weekly frequencies (FLL and PBI going X23) which is not bad considering the number i'm hearing nationwide is 40%
Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
 
RL757PVD
Posts: 3167
Joined: Fri Dec 03, 1999 2:47 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed Mar 18, 2020 11:59 pm

Looks like ORH keeps their JFK and MCO/FLL is shared/split for 1x daily 3/4 each weekly

BDL lost their 2nd PBI and have some X2/3 days on their 2nd FLL and MCO
Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
 
tphuang
Posts: 4571
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Mar 19, 2020 1:19 am

Well, I guess JetBlue has not gotten desperate enough to stop kissing MassPort's ass. Suspending JFK-ORH/MCO/FLL are some of the easiest decisions they can make from network point of view. For most of the domestic cities, I don't think they are getting 40% cuts. Just a lot of downgauging, off peak cuts and such. Stuff that's really going to get hit are their international stuff. All these countries, including DR, are shutting their borders.
 
brutuspup
Posts: 4
Joined: Sat Jun 22, 2019 2:12 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Mar 19, 2020 3:50 am

RL757PVD wrote:
I wonder if this will give them the excuse/out they have been looking for to axe ORH

I hope so! And hope Massport doesn’t hold it over their head. I commuted from BOS-NYC weekly for about 6 months in the last year (always on the last NYC-BOS flight), and I’ll tell ya, the JFK-ORH flight is chronically delayed. What’s the point?
 
nine4nine
Posts: 581
Joined: Tue Mar 28, 2017 3:44 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:43 pm

Any idea when the networks cuts are being announced?

Could this finally be the final nail in the LGB coffin?
717, 727-100, 727-200, 732, 733, 734, 735, 73G, 738, 739, 742, 748, 752, 753, 762, 763, 772, 77W, 787-10, DC9, MD80/88/90, DC10, 319, 220-300, 320, 321, 321n, 332, 333, CS100, CRJ200, Q400, E175, E190, ERJ145, EMB120
 
tphuang
Posts: 4571
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:06 pm

just taking a look at April 10th from LGB,
SMF/SJC/OAK is already gone
SFO/SEA is down to 1x
AUS/RNO/BOS/PDX still at 1x
SLC down to 2x
JFK/LAS still 2x
so looks like LGB just lost 3 more flights for April. My guess is a lot of the cuts are going to be the Latin American stuff since all the borders are closed.
 
User avatar
VS4ever
Posts: 2552
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Mar 19, 2020 9:38 pm

I could have sworn this got posted somewhere, but I will be damned if I can find it, if it already has, please feel free to report the post and have the mods delete it.

http://otp.investis.com/generic/sec/sec ... 3&Type=PDF

This is public record, so I have copied it here, to save searching, but also wanted a link to prove the source.

On March 13, 2020, JetBlue Airways Corporation (“JetBlue”) entered into a Delayed Draw Term Loan Credit Agreement (the
“Credit Agreement”), among JetBlue, as borrower, the subsidiaries of JetBlue party thereto from time to time, as guarantors, the lenders party
thereto from time to time and Morgan Stanley Senior Funding Inc., as administrative agent (the “Agent”). The Credit Agreement provides for
a term loan facility of up to $1,000,000,000 (the “Term Loan Facility”).

On March 16, 2020, JetBlue borrowed the full amount of the Term Loan Facility (the “Term Loan”), the proceeds of which will be[/b]
used to pay certain transaction fees and expenses, and for general corporate purposes of the Company. Amortization payments equal to 0.25%
of the outstanding principal of the Term Loan will be due on the last day of each quarter during the term. The remaining outstanding principal
amount of the Term Loan must be repaid in a single installment on the maturity date on March 15, 2021
. JetBlue may prepay all or a portion
of the Term Loan from time to time, at par plus accrued and unpaid interest.
Borrowings under the Credit Agreement bear interest at a variable rate equal to the London interbank offering rate, known as LIBOR
(but not less than 1% per annum), plus a margin of 1.75% per annum, or at JetBlue’s election, another rate based on certain market interest
rates.

The obligations of JetBlue under the Credit Agreement are secured by liens on certain aircraft and spare engines of JetBlue (the
“Collateral”). The Credit Agreement includes provisions that require the Company to maintain unrestricted cash and cash equivalents and
unused commitments available under all revolving credit facilities (including the Term Loan Facility) aggregating not less than $550 million.

They are putting up 24 aircraft all 321's and including all the NEO's as far as I can tell and 37 spare engines. Oldest (at least in registration numbering terms) is N946JB..

So effectively they just borrowed $1bn, at Libor+1.75%, which is pretty damn low and have a year to pay it off. According to their 10-K for 2019, they had 959m in cash and cash equivalents and they had $750m in undrawn credit lines $550m with Citibank and $200m with Morgan Stanley.

What I can't tell at this point is if this $1bn is in addition to that, I suspect it might be.

Basically if the above is correct, cash is $959+$372 +$1,000 approx 28% of 2019 revenue, which is compared to 16% as stated in the 10K. the $750K remains undrawn, although who knows if any of that has happened since the end of the year. If you include that as well, they have cash lines of $3bn or around 37% of their revenue.

We shall see how fast this gets burned, they are going to need it.
That feeling when you sit at the end of a runway, brakes are released and the raw power takes over. Now that is a thing of beauty and it never gets old.
 
tphuang
Posts: 4571
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:02 pm

VS4ever wrote:
I could have sworn this got posted somewhere, but I will be damned if I can find it, if it already has, please feel free to report the post and have the mods delete it.

http://otp.investis.com/generic/sec/sec ... 3&Type=PDF

This is public record, so I have copied it here, to save searching, but also wanted a link to prove the source.

On March 13, 2020, JetBlue Airways Corporation (“JetBlue”) entered into a Delayed Draw Term Loan Credit Agreement (the
“Credit Agreement”), among JetBlue, as borrower, the subsidiaries of JetBlue party thereto from time to time, as guarantors, the lenders party
thereto from time to time and Morgan Stanley Senior Funding Inc., as administrative agent (the “Agent”). The Credit Agreement provides for
a term loan facility of up to $1,000,000,000 (the “Term Loan Facility”).

On March 16, 2020, JetBlue borrowed the full amount of the Term Loan Facility (the “Term Loan”), the proceeds of which will be[/b]
used to pay certain transaction fees and expenses, and for general corporate purposes of the Company. Amortization payments equal to 0.25%
of the outstanding principal of the Term Loan will be due on the last day of each quarter during the term. The remaining outstanding principal
amount of the Term Loan must be repaid in a single installment on the maturity date on March 15, 2021
. JetBlue may prepay all or a portion
of the Term Loan from time to time, at par plus accrued and unpaid interest.
Borrowings under the Credit Agreement bear interest at a variable rate equal to the London interbank offering rate, known as LIBOR
(but not less than 1% per annum), plus a margin of 1.75% per annum, or at JetBlue’s election, another rate based on certain market interest
rates.

The obligations of JetBlue under the Credit Agreement are secured by liens on certain aircraft and spare engines of JetBlue (the
“Collateral”). The Credit Agreement includes provisions that require the Company to maintain unrestricted cash and cash equivalents and
unused commitments available under all revolving credit facilities (including the Term Loan Facility) aggregating not less than $550 million.

They are putting up 24 aircraft all 321's and including all the NEO's as far as I can tell and 37 spare engines. Oldest (at least in registration numbering terms) is N946JB..

So effectively they just borrowed $1bn, at Libor+1.75%, which is pretty damn low and have a year to pay it off. According to their 10-K for 2019, they had 959m in cash and cash equivalents and they had $750m in undrawn credit lines $550m with Citibank and $200m with Morgan Stanley.

What I can't tell at this point is if this $1bn is in addition to that, I suspect it might be.

Basically if the above is correct, cash is $959+$372 +$1,000 approx 28% of 2019 revenue, which is compared to 16% as stated in the 10K. the $750K remains undrawn, although who knows if any of that has happened since the end of the year. If you include that as well, they have cash lines of $3bn or around 37% of their revenue.

We shall see how fast this gets burned, they are going to need it.

Thanks. Good to see they got the extra credit at such a low rate.

I thought for sure that I read they had $1.2 billion in cash and equivalent as of early March.

According to this one as of March 6th
https://leehamnews.com/2020/03/16/us-ca ... -shutdown/
They had $829 million cash + $372 million other liquidity, which is about $1.2 billion
i assume that article got both their undrawn credit allong with unencumbered asset to be wrong (since we know 34% of their fleet is unencumbered). That article had their burn rate at $18.6 million a day. If they can get that down to something closer to $10 million from reduced capex, capacity, oil prices and such. It seems like they can last for a while. Although it does say they need to have at least $550 million in liquidity, so they don't have forever. And they will have to pay this back in full in a year, which is not straight forward if this downturn lasts for a while.
 
B6BOSfan
Posts: 54
Joined: Fri Apr 19, 2019 5:11 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Mar 20, 2020 5:09 am

Looked at some cuts from Boston for Thursday, April 9. I compared it with what the JetBlue site timetables show (which still seem to show the old frequencies -- not for sale)


TRANSCON
BOS-SEA 1 daily (A321/mint) [Was 2 daily]
BOS-SFO 4 daily (A321/mint) [Was 5 daily]
BOS-LAX 3 daily (A321/mint) [Was 4 daily]
BOS-LGB 1 daily (A320) [no change]
BOS-BUR 1 daily (A320) [no change]
BOS-LAS 3 daily (2 mint/1 A320) ($18 Fares!) [Was 4 daily]
BOS-SAN 2 daily (A321/mint) [Was 3 daily]
BOS-DEN 2 daily (A320/A321) ($61 Fares) [no change]

FLORIDA
BOS-MCO 5 daily (A320) ($18 Fares!) [Was 8-9 daily]
BOS-FLL 4 daily (A320) ($18 Fares!) [Was 5 daily]
BOS-PBI 6 daily (1 A321/5 A320) ($18 Fares!) [Was 7 daily]
BOS-TPA 5 daily (3 A320/1 A321/1 E190) ($18 Fares!) [Was 5-7 daily]
BOS-RSW 5 daily (3 A321/2 A320) ($18 Fares!) [Was 7-8 daily]
BOS-JAX 1 daily (A320) [Was 2 daily]

BUSINESS COMMUTER
BOS-DCA 7 daily (E190) [Was 14 daily]
BOS-JFK 3 daily (E190) [Was 5-8 daily]
BOS-LGA 3 daily (E190) [Was 6 daily]
BOS-EWR 3 daily (E190) [Was 6 daily]
BOS-PHL 4 daily (E190) [Was 8 daily]
BOS-BWI 3 daily (E190) [Was 6 daily]
BOS-ORD 4 daily (E190) ($29 Fares!) [Was 5 daily]
BOS-PIT 3 daily (E190) [Was 6 daily]
BOS-CLE 3 daily (E190) [Was 4 daily]

INTO DELTA HUBS
BOS-DTW 3 daily (E190) [Was 4 daily]
BOS-MSP 2 daily (A320) [Was 3 daily]
BOS-ATL 4 daily (3 E190/1 A320) ($18 Fares!) [Was 5 daily]

OTHER
BOS-AUS 1 daily (A320) [Was 2 daily]
BOS-DFW 1 daily (A320) [Was 2 daily]
BOS-IAH 1 daily (A320) [no change]
BOS-MSY 2 daily (A320/E190) ($18 Fares!) [no change]
BOS-CLT 4 daily (E190) [Was 5 daily]
BOS-RDU 4 daily (E190) [Was 6 daily]
BOS-BNA 2 daily (A320) [Was 3 daily]
BOS-RIC 3 daily (E190) [Was 4 daily]
BOS-BUF 3 daily (2 E190/1 A320) [Was 4 daily]
BOS-ROC 1 daily (E190) [no change]
BOS-SYR 1 daily (E190) [no change]

CARIBBEAN
BOS-NAS 1 daily (A320) [Was 2 daily]
BOS-SJU 2 daily (A320) ($32 Fares!) [Was 3 daily]
BOS-SDQ 1 daily (A321) [Was 2 daily]
BOS-STT 1 daily (A320) [no change]
BOS-CUN 1 daily (A320) [no change]
BOS-AUA Cancelled [Was 3 daily]
 
ncflyer
Posts: 1372
Joined: Tue Sep 05, 2000 7:03 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Mar 20, 2020 9:11 am

Those cuts aren’t anywhere close to aggressive enough what the heck is taking so long, I don’t understand.
 
tphuang
Posts: 4571
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Mar 20, 2020 11:31 am

That seems plenty of cuts already, remember that JFK will get the biggest hit from this due to all the Caribbean closures.
 
CobaltScar
Posts: 619
Joined: Thu Mar 23, 2017 2:30 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Mar 20, 2020 11:37 am

Well the cuts will be deeper. You can already take SQD/STI off that list since they've sealed their borders.
 
Brickell305
Posts: 914
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Mar 20, 2020 12:19 pm

CobaltScar wrote:
Well the cuts will be deeper. You can already take SQD/STI off that list since they've sealed their borders.

Exactly. It’s likely that everything isn’t loaded yet.
 
smflyer
Posts: 225
Joined: Tue May 01, 2018 4:44 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:11 pm

tphuang wrote:
just taking a look at April 10th from LGB,
SMF/SJC/OAK is already gone
SFO/SEA is down to 1x
AUS/RNO/BOS/PDX still at 1x
SLC down to 2x
JFK/LAS still 2x
so looks like LGB just lost 3 more flights for April. My guess is a lot of the cuts are going to be the Latin American stuff since all the borders are closed.


The cut occurs on April 1.
 
User avatar
ChrisNH38
Posts: 232
Joined: Fri Sep 06, 2019 10:53 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:51 am

smflyer wrote:
tphuang wrote:
just taking a look at April 10th from LGB,
SMF/SJC/OAK is already gone
SFO/SEA is down to 1x
AUS/RNO/BOS/PDX still at 1x
SLC down to 2x
JFK/LAS still 2x
so looks like LGB just lost 3 more flights for April. My guess is a lot of the cuts are going to be the Latin American stuff since all the borders are closed.


The cut occurs on April 1.


I totally ignore this web site on that day.
https://my.flightradar24.com/ChrisNH
 
Boston757
Posts: 88
Joined: Mon Aug 31, 2015 5:39 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:04 pm

Any word on London flying?
 
tphuang
Posts: 4571
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Mar 21, 2020 2:08 pm

I think there is just too many unknowns to say at this point. Maybe we will get guidance. I think initially they were shooting for Q1 or Q2 of 2021. i don't think that's happening anymore. Earlier would be second half of 2021. The good news is that with worldwide traffic reducing and some airlines in trouble, they may be able to get some LHR slots from this crisis.

First, they just need to survive with some cash in hand and remain independent. Then, we will see what happens.

Maybe they merge with HA. Maybe they merge with NK. In both cases, that would shift their priorities.

If no merger happens, I think they will concentrate on JFK/BOS in the near term while cutting back elsewhere. LGB is toast I would assume. With everyone dialing down, they may have LAX real estates available soon, which would remove the need for LGB. FLL/MCO is at reduced level as long as international travel is down.

Their progress also depends what happen in JFK/BOS. If AA permanently cuts back at JFK, they may get permanent leases on some of these slots and grow up to 200 flights a day. I think at BOS, AA's recent focus city strategy is finished and they will be back to hub flying. The big question is what DL does at BOS. My guess is that they will cut back some of the really money losing routes they've been running, but fly to more than just hubs/focus cities. If that happens, B6 may emerge out of this in better shape than many other airlines and can get back to growing FLL and possibly LAX after that. As long as their primary focus is on BOS, they will fly to London in the near future. I don't think they will postpone it. I do think with a global recession coming through, their overall TATL ambitions will probably be dialed back.
 
CobaltScar
Posts: 619
Joined: Thu Mar 23, 2017 2:30 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:16 pm

Yeah it seems to me there is opportunity for B6 to gather more space for themselves in their focus cities, especially BOS and turn it into a true dominated hub.
 
tphuang
Posts: 4571
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Mar 21, 2020 5:19 pm

My guess is that domestic/Caribbean leisure + Latin America VFR will recover before domestic business and TATL business/leisure traffic. Who knows when TPAC will recover. So LCCs will get through this in a better shape than big 3 provided that they also get some of the gov't loans. Just thinking about where i think their major statiosn will look like after the virus is over, but air travel is presumably still quite a bit weaker than pre-virus.

- NYC - how much AA will retreat here. Will JFK slots go away. Will LGA slots go away? How will DL look at NYC after this? How will UA look at NYC after this? Aside from additional JFK flights, they might be able to gain additional LGA slots. I'm sure they are not too concerned about EWR right now, but that's another place where UA is unlikely to be operating the same number of flights as before the virus hit. So in all 3 airports, I think they have limited time to add more flights next year. Legacies are looking at multi-year recovery. NYC being a super competitive environment and feeling effects of COVID-19 will probably see some legacy pullbacks.

- BOS - I'm sure there will be more gates becoming available at BOS especially in E since TATL traffic is likely to have a pretty large decline coming out of this. Probably they could even get gates in B if AA backs off. The question is what happens with DL's operation. I don't think they will expand as quickly as they had in the past year, but this is a good opportunity to consolidate their position in BOS. Even if DL keeps a hub/focus city in BOS, they are going to be busy strengthening their core hubs and NYC operation. Can't imagine they will grow BOS for a while.

- FLL - If they strengthen NYC/BOS, then FLL is going to not see any growth for a couple of years. Which is fine as far as I'm concerned. I think FLL will grow only if they merge with NK or if WN downsizes FLL.

- MCO - Another station that I see stagnant or reduced. With a weaker economy out of this virus, I would imagine demand drop to central Florida. Which means, no other carriers will expand here. I think some of their capital projects in Orlando will also slow down. Growth at Orlando will be several years away.

- SJU - Another station I think will stay stagnant, but won't be reduced much. I think the VFR traffic is always going to be there for them and won't decline.

- LA Area - I think they will consolidate around LAX. I'm probably optimistic here, but I think they will get all the gates they need at LAX (maybe 6 to 8 gates in total) over the next few years. Legacy plans at LAX will probably be more moderate given that everyone will be running lower margins elsewhere. LGB to me as no value if LAX real estate becomes available.

- don't need any other stations. Their growth will be slow for a few years after this.
 
Brickell305
Posts: 914
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Mar 21, 2020 5:38 pm

I agree that the LCCs/ULCCs will recover more quickly. The recession that this brings will lead people to be looking for the lowest fares even more so than they were prior. Fare levels will likely be depressed for a while. The legacies will find it difficult to make money at those depressed levels.
 
Byrdluvs747
Posts: 2538
Joined: Thu Jul 15, 2004 5:25 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:50 pm

tphuang wrote:

- LA Area - I think they will consolidate around LAX. I'm probably optimistic here, but I think they will get all the gates they need at LAX (maybe 6 to 8 gates in total) over the next few years.


And where will these extra LAX gates come from?
The 747: The hands who designed it were guided by god.
 
tphuang
Posts: 4571
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:22 am

Byrdluvs747 wrote:
tphuang wrote:

- LA Area - I think they will consolidate around LAX. I'm probably optimistic here, but I think they will get all the gates they need at LAX (maybe 6 to 8 gates in total) over the next few years.


And where will these extra LAX gates come from?


I've believed for a while now that in the next airlines industry downturn, a lot of the gate constrained will be no longer gate constrained as airlines dial back on their capacity and expansion hopes. In the case of LAX, it's been a very low margin hub for all the big 4 and I don't think all the legacies will need the real estate they had been requesting prior to this virus. So especially in the case of AA, I can see them just relying on AS more on the west coast and not needing all of T 4/5. We will see. I also see UA not needing all the space (T9) that they had been eyeing.
 
Nicknuzzii
Posts: 881
Joined: Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:57 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:45 am

It’s funny how some are saying B6 will grow in BOS but shrink in all other cities. What gives you this idea? Wouldn’t B6 want to grow in their hometown where they are most constrained and there is the most demand?
 
ShinyAndChrome
Posts: 247
Joined: Fri Aug 28, 2015 1:53 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Mar 22, 2020 4:21 am

Something that I don't think has been discussed in detail yet in this thread is the fate of the remaining TATL LCCs. A lot of these airlines had already gone away even prior to this crisis and if Norwegian ends up either going under or being severely curtailed network-wise, it will give B6 some extra space in their Europe ambitions. Doubly true because unlike in other examples, they've already cultivated a strong brand and following here so less of a need to orient their model around the most price-sensitive, brand-agnostic passengers.
 
wnflyguy
Posts: 1794
Joined: Thu Feb 10, 2011 7:58 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Mar 23, 2020 5:39 am

So rumors are JetBlue is going to park all the A321 until further notice as it scales back flying.

Flyguy
my post are my opinion only and not those of southwest airlines and or airtran airlines.
 
cpl22586
Posts: 71
Joined: Thu Jun 28, 2012 1:39 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Mar 23, 2020 6:28 am

wnflyguy wrote:
So rumors are JetBlue is going to park all the A321 until further notice as it scales back flying.

Flyguy



Where did you happen to hear this rumor?
 
Blueballs
Posts: 56
Joined: Wed Jan 11, 2017 2:21 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:45 pm

cpl22586 wrote:
wnflyguy wrote:
So rumors are JetBlue is going to park all the A321 until further notice as it scales back flying.

Flyguy



Where did you happen to hear this rumor?

Making up rumors. There’s been no such discussion yet. Though it seems the 190’s will be doing a lot of the lift right now
 
CaptCoolHand
Posts: 81
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2018 12:24 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:32 pm

T5 to close tonight at 2030.

Effective Monday, March 23, flights scheduled to depart JFK Terminal 5 after 2030ET will now leave from Terminal 4 due to TSA staffing changes across the airport. This change will continue indefinitely.
 
wnflyguy
Posts: 1794
Joined: Thu Feb 10, 2011 7:58 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:50 pm

Blueballs wrote:
cpl22586 wrote:
wnflyguy wrote:
So rumors are JetBlue is going to park all the A321 until further notice as it scales back flying.

Flyguy



Where did you happen to hear this rumor?

Making up rumors. There’s been no such discussion yet. Though it seems the 190’s will be doing a lot of the lift right now


Customer service team member at LGB. She's was already worried about her total job as it is at LGB before this pandemic. Her station leaders don't sound to optimistic about the future.

The industry as a whole is against the ropes.
Fingers Crossed and prayers across the board 33 yrs in this industry never been in such dire situations.

Praying for everyone now.
Flyguy
my post are my opinion only and not those of southwest airlines and or airtran airlines.
 
cpl22586
Posts: 71
Joined: Thu Jun 28, 2012 1:39 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:55 pm

Blueballs wrote:
cpl22586 wrote:
wnflyguy wrote:
So rumors are JetBlue is going to park all the A321 until further notice as it scales back flying.

Flyguy



Where did you happen to hear this rumor?

Making up rumors. There’s been no such discussion yet. Though it seems the 190’s will be doing a lot of the lift right now


Looking in the movement control plot the 321s are still doing a lot of flying so was surprised to hear this rumor.
 
flyby519
Posts: 1545
Joined: Tue Jul 24, 2007 3:31 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:59 am

wnflyguy wrote:
So rumors are JetBlue is going to park all the A321 until further notice as it scales back flying.

Flyguy


Makes sense for at least the 200seaters to get parked. We're not seeing loads that warrant that much capacity at the moment.
 
UkiAir
Posts: 53
Joined: Mon Jan 04, 2010 1:59 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:17 am

E190s will be doing a lot of flying for the next few months.
 
MAH4546
Posts: 26058
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:33 am

flyby519 wrote:
wnflyguy wrote:
So rumors are JetBlue is going to park all the A321 until further notice as it scales back flying.

Flyguy


Makes sense for at least the 200seaters to get parked. We're not seeing loads that warrant that much capacity at the moment.


No way. A321s are cheaper to operate. It makes sense to park older, smaller more expensive planes first.

It's far cheaper to fly 25 people on a brand new A321 than the same 25 people on a 15 year old A320.
a.
 
tphuang
Posts: 4571
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:27 am

Here is the article on additional cancellations from JetBlue in the near future.
https://paxex.aero/2020/03/jetblue-plan ... n-service/

the sub 40% LF sounds horrible until you read that WN is getting 20% LF on its flights and AS is getting 10% LF on its SFO flights. All around, it seems like airlines have adapted the annoying strategy of listing more flights and canceling ones that it cannot fly. The legacies are doing this more than anyone else. Looks like B6 has adopted the strategies of copying legacies here with the rolling cancel emails.

Taking a look at yesterday out of BOS.

B6 canceled 47 out of 154 flights
DL canceled 89 out of 149 flights
AA canceled 44 out of 84 flights

and out of JFK
B6 canceled 53 out of 142 flights
DL canceled 86 out of 225 flights
AA canceled 35 out of 73 flights

out of FLL
B6 canceled 21 out of 86 flights
WN canceled 34 out of 86 flights
NK canceled 1 out of 67
Last edited by tphuang on Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:31 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
TheLunchbox
Posts: 73
Joined: Fri Nov 30, 2018 4:31 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:29 am

cpl22586 wrote:
Blueballs wrote:
cpl22586 wrote:


Where did you happen to hear this rumor?

Making up rumors. There’s been no such discussion yet. Though it seems the 190’s will be doing a lot of the lift right now


Looking in the movement control plot the 321s are still doing a lot of flying so was surprised to hear this rumor.


Why are you referencing MC Plot? I wouldn't especially because it's internal info.
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 7278
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:30 pm

MAH4546 wrote:
flyby519 wrote:
wnflyguy wrote:
So rumors are JetBlue is going to park all the A321 until further notice as it scales back flying.

Flyguy


Makes sense for at least the 200seaters to get parked. We're not seeing loads that warrant that much capacity at the moment.


No way. A321s are cheaper to operate. It makes sense to park older, smaller more expensive planes first.

It's far cheaper to fly 25 people on a brand new A321 than the same 25 people on a 15 year old A320.


Really? Trip cost for 25 passengers is lower on a newish 321ceo than on a 15 yr old 320?
 
tphuang
Posts: 4571
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:16 pm

so day by day the numbers look worse and worse for every airline. At this point, legacies are probably going to actually fly closer to 20% of their original planned capacity in April/May. I'd be shocked at this point if JetBlue operate more than 40% of their original schedule in April and May given the NYC exposure. Let's see if they cut more from their schedule or continue the practice of rolling cuts.

They did get some good PR recently when they offered to fly health care professionals for free to New York. Smart thing to do with very little actual costs involved. I guess if they continue to pitch themselves as providing essential services to New York at a crisis, they might gain more political favors with Cuomo.
 
lat41
Posts: 636
Joined: Mon Jun 28, 2004 12:23 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Mar 27, 2020 1:34 pm

RL757PVD wrote:
I wonder if this will give them the excuse/out they have been looking for to axe ORH

If that happens the JFK service should be moved South to PVD where it will grab some nice business from Southern New Englanders looking to head West on the JetBlue system via that awesome hub at JFK.
 
11C
Posts: 128
Joined: Mon Jun 17, 2019 2:25 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Mar 27, 2020 2:37 pm

Boston757 wrote:
Any word on London flying?


That would be like planning your next vacation while sitting on a deck chair on the Titanic. Not a high priority, at the moment.
 
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airportugal310
Posts: 3585
Joined: Sun Apr 11, 2004 12:49 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Mar 27, 2020 2:43 pm

11C wrote:
Boston757 wrote:
Any word on London flying?


That would be like planning your next vacation while sitting on a deck chair on the Titanic. Not a high priority, at the moment.


Businesses don't stop planning for the future just because of current operational difficulties...to do so would be somewhat of a dereliction of duty. I am positive they still have people looking at current timelines and requirements, even if they don't jive anymore with the original plan.
“They bought their tickets, they knew what they were getting into. I say, let 'em crash.”
 
Bluewho
Posts: 168
Joined: Wed Apr 10, 2019 12:58 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Mar 27, 2020 3:32 pm

airportugal310 wrote:
11C wrote:
Boston757 wrote:
Any word on London flying?


That would be like planning your next vacation while sitting on a deck chair on the Titanic. Not a high priority, at the moment.


Businesses don't stop planning for the future just because of current operational difficulties...to do so would be somewhat of a dereliction of duty. I am positive they still have people looking at current timelines and requirements, even if they don't jive anymore with the original plan.



Absolutely. You would be a very inept ELT(possible) if you were not planning for the future and also some of the opportunities that might come out of this?
 
11C
Posts: 128
Joined: Mon Jun 17, 2019 2:25 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Mar 27, 2020 4:06 pm

Bluewho wrote:
airportugal310 wrote:
11C wrote:

That would be like planning your next vacation while sitting on a deck chair on the Titanic. Not a high priority, at the moment.


Businesses don't stop planning for the future just because of current operational difficulties...to do so would be somewhat of a dereliction of duty. I am positive they still have people looking at current timelines and requirements, even if they don't jive anymore with the original plan.



Absolutely. You would be a very inept ELT(possible) if you were not planning for the future and also some of the opportunities that might come out of this?


All may be true, but my point is that they are probably focused on survival at the moment. How do you plan for a future that, at present, is entirely unknown? If you guys know, then maybe you should be on the ELT. This is the “fly the airplane” moment. The other steps will come later when more information is available. But, by all means, fire away.
 
tphuang
Posts: 4571
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Mar 27, 2020 4:30 pm

it would be interesting to see what happens after the bailout. Do they take just loan or just grant or both? I definitely don't think they would want the gov't to control how they run the airline.

And if they do get additional funding, they won't have to worry about solvency. Should they look into restarting some of the capital project that they have paused? I'm sure the Europe project have been put on hold for now to conserve cash. But if they do get funding, that seems like something they can unpause.
 
MKIAZ
Posts: 260
Joined: Thu May 01, 2014 5:24 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Mar 27, 2020 4:38 pm

tphuang wrote:
Byrdluvs747 wrote:
tphuang wrote:

- LA Area - I think they will consolidate around LAX. I'm probably optimistic here, but I think they will get all the gates they need at LAX (maybe 6 to 8 gates in total) over the next few years.


And where will these extra LAX gates come from?


I've believed for a while now that in the next airlines industry downturn, a lot of the gate constrained will be no longer gate constrained as airlines dial back on their capacity and expansion hopes. In the case of LAX, it's been a very low margin hub for all the big 4 and I don't think all the legacies will need the real estate they had been requesting prior to this virus. So especially in the case of AA, I can see them just relying on AS more on the west coast and not needing all of T 4/5. We will see. I also see UA not needing all the space (T9) that they had been eyeing.


Wouldn't AA rather run a few LAX-LAS/SFO than have B6 come in and start more JFK/FLL-LAX?
 
twinotter
Posts: 250
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 3:13 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Mar 27, 2020 5:57 pm

lat41 wrote:
RL757PVD wrote:
I wonder if this will give them the excuse/out they have been looking for to axe ORH


If that happens the JFK service should be moved South to PVD where it will grab some nice business from Southern New Englanders looking to head West on the JetBlue system via that awesome hub at JFK.


If JetBlue accepts grant money from the stimulus package, they must maintain service through March 1, 2022 to all destinations they served on March 1, 2020.
 
flyby519
Posts: 1545
Joined: Tue Jul 24, 2007 3:31 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Mar 27, 2020 6:19 pm

twinotter wrote:
lat41 wrote:
RL757PVD wrote:
I wonder if this will give them the excuse/out they have been looking for to axe ORH


If that happens the JFK service should be moved South to PVD where it will grab some nice business from Southern New Englanders looking to head West on the JetBlue system via that awesome hub at JFK.


If JetBlue accepts grant money from the stimulus package, they must maintain service through March 1, 2022 to all destinations they served on March 1, 2020.


I don’t have the wording in front of me but I thought it said this would be at the discretion of the govt.

Edit:

The Secretary of Transportation is authorized to require, to the extent reasonable and practicable, an air carrier provided financial assistance under this subtitle to maintain scheduled air transportation service, as the Secretary of Transportation deems necessary, to ensure services to any point served by that carrier before March 1, 2020.
 
User avatar
airportugal310
Posts: 3585
Joined: Sun Apr 11, 2004 12:49 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Mar 27, 2020 6:35 pm

11C wrote:
Bluewho wrote:
airportugal310 wrote:

Businesses don't stop planning for the future just because of current operational difficulties...to do so would be somewhat of a dereliction of duty. I am positive they still have people looking at current timelines and requirements, even if they don't jive anymore with the original plan.



Absolutely. You would be a very inept ELT(possible) if you were not planning for the future and also some of the opportunities that might come out of this?


All may be true, but my point is that they are probably focused on survival at the moment. How do you plan for a future that, at present, is entirely unknown? If you guys know, then maybe you should be on the ELT. This is the “fly the airplane” moment. The other steps will come later when more information is available. But, by all means, fire away.


Not firing away. There can be two trains of thought on the matter...both with their points. But what I can say is that at the airline I work for...planning is still moving forward with future aircraft deliveries as if they are still coming on time. Are they really? Who knows, but to plan as if they are still showing up means you don't end up far behind the curve later...
“They bought their tickets, they knew what they were getting into. I say, let 'em crash.”
 
ericm2031
Posts: 1310
Joined: Tue Jun 19, 2012 8:46 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Mar 27, 2020 7:27 pm

tphuang wrote:
it would be interesting to see what happens after the bailout. Do they take just loan or just grant or both? I definitely don't think they would want the gov't to control how they run the airline.

And if they do get additional funding, they won't have to worry about solvency. Should they look into restarting some of the capital project that they have paused? I'm sure the Europe project have been put on hold for now to conserve cash. But if they do get funding, that seems like something they can unpause.


I think every airline will do as much as they can to avoid loans with a lot of strings attached. They just want it available as a last resort. Most of the airlines still have significant liquidity and much more they can obtain on their own, especially if you own a lot of your fleet.
 
BlueBaller
Posts: 56
Joined: Sun Sep 01, 2019 8:07 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Mar 27, 2020 7:59 pm

airportugal310 wrote:
11C wrote:
Bluewho wrote:


Absolutely. You would be a very inept ELT(possible) if you were not planning for the future and also some of the opportunities that might come out of this?


All may be true, but my point is that they are probably focused on survival at the moment. How do you plan for a future that, at present, is entirely unknown? If you guys know, then maybe you should be on the ELT. This is the “fly the airplane” moment. The other steps will come later when more information is available. But, by all means, fire away.


Not firing away. There can be two trains of thought on the matter...both with their points. But what I can say is that at the airline I work for...planning is still moving forward with future aircraft deliveries as if they are still coming on time. Are they really? Who knows, but to plan as if they are still showing up means you don't end up far behind the curve later...


I am sure London is still in the works. In fact, if this squad plays their cards right, the service will debut (albeit later than the originally broadcast Q1 2021) with far less competition from both Legacy and Low Cost European carriers, and benefitting from hugely discounted costs for slots. It follows similar logic as the Breeze start up philosophy. Get in on the bottom floor right as the dust finally settled, rub your eyes, clear your throat, take stock of the road ahead and get to work.

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