tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jan 12, 2020 6:12 pm

From OAG thread this week
B6 BDL-RSW MAR 2>1.0[1.0] APR 1.9>0.9[1.0]
B6 BOS-EWR APR 7>6[5]
B6 FLL-LAX MAR 4>3[3]
B6 FLL-NAS MAR 4>3[5] APR 4>3[5]
B6 JFK-LAX MAR 9>10[10]
B6 JFK-RSW MAR 4>5[3] APR 4>5[3]


These are really last minute cuts to be added to JFK. Which indicates those cut markets are having difficulties with the added capacity. Of course, they can always run those same flights out of JFK and make money. I'm a little concerned about these last minute cuts at FLL. Seems like the Q3/4 weakness has extended to Q1. Not a good sign.

It's a good thing that AA is not using about 40 slots, because the reduced capacity has been great for B6 margins out of JFK.
 
tphuang
Posts: 3879
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Jan 13, 2020 2:18 pm

More BOS numbers from Q3. I think you will see that a lot of the markets where they upgauged or added flights suffered in the yield department a little bit. Overall still an okay quarter for them at BOS, but it does take sometime for the added capacity to be absorbed. At lot of these markets are now more settled vs when DL first entered. Which is not a good sign for DL at those continued low yield level.

CityPairDist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare% NS PerFlight Dep LF Yield PRASM Vs B6
BOSAUS 1698 B6 28406 215.37 215.13 245.18 99.23% 152.2 0225 82.93% 178.40 0.1051 100.00%
BOSAUS 1698 DL 21649 239.59 228.73 277.39 77.68% 157.2 0156 88.27% 201.91 0.1189 113.17%
BOSAUS 1698 WN 24918 222.31 216.43 261.04 86.82% 161.3 0175 88.28% 191.07 0.1125 107.10%

This is the first results from B6 adding to AUS. Keep in mind that they added the extra flight in September, a low traffic month. You can see the noticeably lower LF than DL/WN here. Keep in mind they are normally the yield leader here by quite a bit. This is a pretty large drop for them in yield from Q2. They even dropped vs last Q3 when both DL/WN both improved here. So this market was adjusting even to that one extra flight from B6. Would be interesting to see how market adjusts to 4 additional flighs next year. Hard not to expect a huge bloodbath here. I continue to expect the first A220 to operate here at some point.

BOSBWI 369 B6 74462 146.03 146.03 0.00 100.00% 100.2 0958 77.56% 113.27 0.3070 100.00%
BOSBWI 369 WN 197987 141.55 141.55 0.00 100.00% 147.7 1579 84.92% 120.20 0.3257 106.12%
Another not great quarter here for B6. There yield is down Vs Q2 and about flat vs a year ago. They did run more flight here than a year ago. Maybe thats why they reverted to 5x daily for S20. Seems like an obvious A220 route.

BOSBUF 395 B6 66135 145.00 144.65 272.06 99.73% 100.3 0820 80.44% 116.36 0.2946 100.00%
BOSBUF 395 DL 22954 118.31 115.97 203.35 97.32% 072.5 0420 75.40% 087.44 0.2214 75.15%
Compared to previous quarters, this was actually a decent quarter for B6 here. Q3 is normally the strongest quarter for this route. Their yield gap vs DL increased vs Q2 and vs a year go. It continues to amaze me DL sticks around on this route that just bleeds cash for them.

BOSCHS 818 B6 42512 166.84 165.92 220.02 98.31% 132.9 0389 82.26% 136.49 0.1669 100.00%
BOSCHS 818 DL 11560 177.97 167.50 275.97 90.35% 070.5 0191 85.81% 143.73 0.1757 105.31%
It seems like they did more upgauging here vs Q2 and a year ago. Probably contriubted to the lower LF here. Their yield is down vs a year ago probably due to the higher capacity and more A320s here. DL had higher yield here for the first time. Seems like an A220 route here given the mix of A320/E90 that they use here.

BOSCLT 728 AA 228620 201.74 200.20 281.32 98.10% 161.6 1564 90.46% 181.10 0.2488 128.21%
BOSCLT 728 B6 43454 170.43 170.39 234.88 99.94% 100.6 0521 82.90% 141.25 0.1940 100.00%
This looks to be the first quarter they ran 3x daily through the whole quarter. Their yield is down vs Q2 and a year ago. The yield gap vs AA increased. Again, I would imagine as they go up to 5x daily for Q3, it will be tough on the yield at least in the short term.

BOSORD 867 AA 224709 184.48 183.34 219.06 96.81% 164.3 1521 89.91% 164.85 0.1901 119.52%
BOSORD 867 B6 72081 164.59 164.54 296.08 99.97% 101.0 0851 83.83% 137.93 0.1591 100.00%
BOSORD 867 UA 229329 197.79 196.00 351.04 98.85% 166.0 1563 88.37% 173.20 0.1998 125.57%
This is the most flight they've had in a quarter but with lower capacity than last Q3. Capacity and # of flights are up over Q2. The yield gap vs AA/UA is about the same vs a year ago, but the overall yield is up. As they continue to add flight on this route, should be more low yield here next year to adjust to that and DL's entrance. Good news is that AA seem to be reducing capacity vs previous years. This is another market where A220 would really help them compete here against the large single aisle costs.

BOSCLE 563 B6 48674 162.97 162.97 0.00 100.00% 100.0 0556 87.54% 142.67 0.2534 100.00%
BOSCLE 563 DL 29119 167.67 166.12 190.50 93.65% 075.9 0442 86.76% 144.13 0.2560 101.03%
So the dynamic here seems to be unchanged vs Q2. B6's yield here is about the same as last year. It looks like a market that can absorb the additional flight B6 has scheduled in.

BOSDEN 1754 B6 57201 226.93 226.93 228.94 99.85% 175.9 0361 90.08% 204.42 0.1165 100.00%
BOSDEN 1754 UA 148208 295.18 296.73 264.87 95.11% 180.2 0870 94.52% 280.47 0.1599 137.20%
BOSDEN 1754 WN 67931 234.13 232.26 265.09 94.31% 161.9 0463 90.60% 210.43 0.1200 102.94%
They actually had a good quarter here, which is probably why they are scheduling in another flight. The additional capacity of the one A321 has now been absorbed by the market. Yield is down vs last year, but the lower cost of A321 should even that out.

BOSDFW 1562 AA 191087 278.67 276.17 320.58 94.36% 170.0 1229 91.45% 252.54 0.1617 151.97%
BOSDFW 1562 B6 45548 187.05 187.05 0.00 100.00% 150.8 0340 88.84% 166.18 0.1064 100.00%
They did about as well here as last year and down a little vs Q2. Another route I think should switch to A220 to allow for additional frequencies.

BOSRSW 1249 B6 69999 174.18 173.89 207.63 99.15% 193.6 0413 87.54% 152.22 0.1219
Numbers are what you would expect in low season. They don't really have competition here in Q3. The heavy usage of A321s without lowering yield vs a year ago is a good sign for the margins.

BOSJAX 1010 B6 43790 144.44 143.38 198.15 98.07% 100.6 0525 82.94% 118.91 0.1177 100.00%
BOSJAX 1010 DL 24212 155.86 151.12 236.29 94.43% 072.8 0445 74.71% 112.90 0.1118 94.94%
Another route where there is just too much capacity in Q3. The yield gap vs DL is same as last year and a little less than Q2. Overal yield is down vs Q2. They are going to all A320s here in Q4 to lower cost. We will see how it goes. DL's yield seems unsustinable on RJ for this long of a route. I don't know what they are still doing here.

BOSHOU 1609 B6 23300 178.45 178.45 0.00 100.00% 150.0 0183 84.88% 151.47 0.0941 100.00%
BOSHOU 1609 WN 26934 212.92 211.38 220.97 83.95% 159.1 0193 87.72% 185.43 0.1152 122.42%
Another tough quarter to HOU. I can't wait to see how IAH looks after this.

BOSMCO 1121 B6 152789 166.98 166.72 195.29 99.10% 189.8 0943 85.37% 142.32 0.1270 100.00%
BOSMCO 1121 DL 77626 161.76 160.55 181.76 94.28% 172.8 0508 88.46% 142.01 0.1267 99.78%
This is about the same as a year ago but down vs Q2. Again, really heavy A321 usage here to lower the cost. Interesitng enough, DL is also upgauging here.

BOSFLL 1237 B6 109277 188.24 187.36 223.88 97.61% 154.4 0802 88.22% 165.30 0.1336 100.00%
BOSFLL 1237 DL 28063 171.24 166.01 201.30 85.16% 174.5 0179 89.83% 149.12 0.1206 90.22%
They really need to upgauge on this route. No reason to not have more A321s here.

BOSBNA 942 B6 53720 149.97 149.88 349.50 99.96% 155.1 0398 87.05% 130.47 0.1385 100.00%
BOSBNA 942 DL 36679 169.91 167.86 233.03 96.86% 071.0 0625 82.68% 138.80 0.1473 106.38%
BOSBNA 942 WN 76343 152.19 150.92 184.62 96.23% 155.1 0567 86.79% 130.98 0.1390 100.39%
The yield is down a little bit vs last year as all 3 carriers added capacity here. The yield gap vs the extremely high cost DL RJ shrunk a little bit. Another route that might swap out for A220s.

BOSMSY 1368 B6 30251 175.03 174.91 285.33 99.89% 156.3 0235 82.34% 144.03 0.1053
Again, low season for this highly leisure flight. They've finally moved off E90 here. Yield down vs a year ago.

BOSPIT 496 B6 82687 146.08 146.08 0.00 100.00% 100.8 1065 77.03% 112.52 0.2269 100.00%
BOSPIT 496 DL 35746 133.20 131.86 177.88 97.09% 071.1 0729 68.93% 090.89 0.1833 80.78%
Another route where I have no clue what DL is still doing. Yield is down slightly vs a year ago and yield gap is the same. Vs Q2, yield is unchanged but yield gap increased a little bit. I see B6 cutting a flight here as they swap in A320 to lower cost in S20.

BOSRDU 612 B6 89051 159.37 159.36 183.27 99.96% 100.3 1117 79.51% 126.70 0.2070 100.00%
BOSRDU 612 DL 84012 160.86 160.26 343.19 99.67% 105.1 0978 81.70% 130.93 0.2139 103.33%
They had quite a bit more flight here than DL in Q3. DL responded with more upgauging. So both airlines had about the same capacity increase. Yield is down vs a year ago. The yield gap is unchanged vs last quarter and a year ago, but DL did have more mainline here to counter B6's added flights.

BOSRIC 474 B6 59638 152.45 152.45 0.00 100.00% 100.2 0703 84.63% 129.02 0.2722 100.00%
BOSRIC 474 DL 24841 152.88 152.88 0.00 100.00% 069.8 0481 74.00% 113.14 0.2387 87.69%
Another market that doesn't seem to be changing too much. Their yield is about same as Q2 and up vs a year ago. Yield gap vs DL increased over Q2 and a year ago.

BOSTPA 1185 B6 87870 158.98 158.79 213.01 99.64% 144.2 0671 90.82% 144.22 0.1217 100.00%
BOSTPA 1185 DL 61373 155.92 153.99 216.41 96.91% 161.0 0427 89.27% 137.46 0.1160 95.32%
An okay quarter here. Yield about the same as last year and lower than Q2. Yield gap vs DL shrunk vs a year ago. Another route they are adding A321s in busy season to lower cost.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon Jan 13, 2020 10:25 pm

The December traffic report is out. Again, RASM number not looking great, down 2.7% YoY for Q4. Now, part of that is the high completion% and the other part of that is the upgauging (passenger per flight up close to 6% YoY) and longer stage length(up 4%). They would probably need to be on the absolute low end of the -1.0 to 1.0% cost guidance to make up for the weak RASM numbers.
http://otp.investis.com/clients/us/jetb ... wsid=64894
 
Runway28L
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jan 14, 2020 12:03 am

tphuang wrote:
BOSPIT 496 B6 82687 146.08 146.08 0.00 100.00% 100.8 1065 77.03% 112.52 0.2269 100.00%
BOSPIT 496 DL 35746 133.20 131.86 177.88 97.09% 071.1 0729 68.93% 090.89 0.1833 80.78%
Another route where I have no clue what DL is still doing. Yield is down slightly vs a year ago and yield gap is the same. Vs Q2, yield is unchanged but yield gap increased a little bit. I see B6 cutting a flight here as they swap in A320 to lower cost in S20.

Took full advantage of that $51 fare JetBlue was offering back in late-July for the Christmas Eve outbound from PIT. :spin:

The A320 (especially the Phase 2 version) will be greatly welcomed as the E190 I flew back on the return a few weeks ago was in very rough shape.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jan 14, 2020 4:41 pm

alright, looks like AA is making somewhat of a comeback at BOS.

Of the 3 routes they are adding, RDU is going to become a gigantic bloodbath like AUS. IND is probably going to take B6 out of going there for a while. ILM should have no impact. Also, looks like G4 is adding some weeklies to places B6 is unlikely to serve anytime soon. Generally, G4/F9 adding flights to places where B6 does not serve is good news, since that will take away some connection passengers from one of the legacies.

On the whole, I think B6 should think quickly about where it wants to go next. CMH/STL/SDF/MKE/MEM are all markets with plenty of room for them to enter. CVG too if they really want to take a hammer at DL margins at BOS. I don't think there is any reason for them to intentionally get into another bloodbath at IND. At some point, they need to switch from this strategy of beefing up existing markets back to entering new market. It's been over a year since they've announced a new market out of BOS.
 
trueblew
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jan 14, 2020 4:43 pm

Runway28L wrote:
tphuang wrote:
BOSPIT 496 B6 82687 146.08 146.08 0.00 100.00% 100.8 1065 77.03% 112.52 0.2269 100.00%
BOSPIT 496 DL 35746 133.20 131.86 177.88 97.09% 071.1 0729 68.93% 090.89 0.1833 80.78%
Another route where I have no clue what DL is still doing. Yield is down slightly vs a year ago and yield gap is the same. Vs Q2, yield is unchanged but yield gap increased a little bit. I see B6 cutting a flight here as they swap in A320 to lower cost in S20.

Took full advantage of that $51 fare JetBlue was offering back in late-July for the Christmas Eve outbound from PIT. :spin:

The A320 (especially the Phase 2 version) will be greatly welcomed as the E190 I flew back on the return a few weeks ago was in very rough shape.


Most of the E190s I've been on recently are in similar shape. It makes you wonder what their plan is for those interiors since a good number of frames will remain in service for many years to come. The status quo is unacceptable, especially as the Phase 2 frames continue to proliferate and show a major contrast.
 
jplatts
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jan 14, 2020 5:09 pm

tphuang wrote:
CVG too if they really want to take a hammer at DL margins at BOS.


B6 adding CVG-JFK nonstop service might also be a possibility if B6 enters the CVG market with F9 no longer serving the NYC market nonstop from CVG.

In addition to CVG-BOS or CVG-JFK, B6 adding CVG-FLL nonstop service might also be a possibility if B6 enters the CVG market with B6 already serving FLL nonstop from ORD and CLE in the Midwest.
 
RL757PVD
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jan 14, 2020 5:25 pm

With increased competition in BOS (on multiple fronts now) and a decreasing RASM, how many new fights is B6 going to be able to reasonably take on for BOS? Do they have a plan or is it London or bust still?
Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jan 14, 2020 7:41 pm

RL757PVD wrote:
With increased competition in BOS (on multiple fronts now) and a decreasing RASM, how many new fights is B6 going to be able to reasonably take on for BOS? Do they have a plan or is it London or bust still?


they should be able to reach 200 target quite easily by March of 2021 based on what they've announced so far. Beyond that, I think peak 250 is quite reasonable target for 2025. That would be about 10 new flights a year from 2021 to 2025. By then, Terminal E expansion will be all done, XLR and A220 would be all delivered. Probably need to wait a couple of more years if they can get more gates to expand beyond that. I don't know if the terminal or runway will allow for expansion past that.

On the existing markets they are in, they can probably add another 15 to 20 flights. There will be maybe 15 TATL flights and probably another 10 to 20 for new non-TATL markets. I wouldn't be surprised if they hit 40% domestic market share by this fall. 45% domestic market share is probably a reasonable medium term goal.

A lot could change in 2 or 3 years. Maybe we have a large recession and everyone starts to cut back at BOS. Maybe B6 will be able to get even more gates from that. Maybe they will chose to focus building out other focus cities. I certainly don't think it's out of question that their continued expansion will cause such yield weakness at BOS that other airlines will start to cut back, which would open up space at B or E.
 
RL757PVD
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jan 14, 2020 7:46 pm

tphuang wrote:
RL757PVD wrote:
With increased competition in BOS (on multiple fronts now) and a decreasing RASM, how many new fights is B6 going to be able to reasonably take on for BOS? Do they have a plan or is it London or bust still?


they should be able to reach 200 target quite easily by March of 2021 based on what they've announced so far. Beyond that, I think peak 250 is quite reasonable target for 2025. That would be about 10 new flights a year from 2021 to 2025. By then, Terminal E expansion will be all done, XLR and A220 would be all delivered. Probably need to wait a couple of more years if they can get more gates to expand beyond that. I don't know if the terminal or runway will allow for expansion past that.

On the existing markets they are in, they can probably add another 15 to 20 flights. There will be maybe 15 TATL flights and probably another 10 to 20 for new non-TATL markets. I wouldn't be surprised if they hit 40% domestic market share by this fall. 45% domestic market share is probably a reasonable medium term goal.

A lot could change in 2 or 3 years. Maybe we have a large recession and everyone starts to cut back at BOS. Maybe B6 will be able to get even more gates from that. Maybe they will chose to focus building out other focus cities. I certainly don't think it's out of question that their continued expansion will cause such yield weakness at BOS that other airlines will start to cut back, which would open up space at B or E.


Sure they can physically do it, but I was more referring to, can they do it and still post numbers that are acceptable to Wall Street, specially compared to what DL just posted.
Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jan 14, 2020 8:03 pm

RL757PVD wrote:
tphuang wrote:
RL757PVD wrote:
With increased competition in BOS (on multiple fronts now) and a decreasing RASM, how many new fights is B6 going to be able to reasonably take on for BOS? Do they have a plan or is it London or bust still?


they should be able to reach 200 target quite easily by March of 2021 based on what they've announced so far. Beyond that, I think peak 250 is quite reasonable target for 2025. That would be about 10 new flights a year from 2021 to 2025. By then, Terminal E expansion will be all done, XLR and A220 would be all delivered. Probably need to wait a couple of more years if they can get more gates to expand beyond that. I don't know if the terminal or runway will allow for expansion past that.

On the existing markets they are in, they can probably add another 15 to 20 flights. There will be maybe 15 TATL flights and probably another 10 to 20 for new non-TATL markets. I wouldn't be surprised if they hit 40% domestic market share by this fall. 45% domestic market share is probably a reasonable medium term goal.

A lot could change in 2 or 3 years. Maybe we have a large recession and everyone starts to cut back at BOS. Maybe B6 will be able to get even more gates from that. Maybe they will chose to focus building out other focus cities. I certainly don't think it's out of question that their continued expansion will cause such yield weakness at BOS that other airlines will start to cut back, which would open up space at B or E.


Sure they can physically do it, but I was more referring to, can they do it and still post numbers that are acceptable to Wall Street, specially compared to what DL just posted.


I think with their recent moves, B6 has shown their fully committed to totally build out BOS. There is little room for them to grow at NYC outside of upgauging and maybe a few more flights at EWR. Florida right now looks like a basket case with all the ULCC pressure there. All that A321s and A220s coming in have to go somewhere and the most logical place is BOS.

You will notice that even with the headline revenue increases for DL, their margin only increased a little bit YoY due to 15% lower fuel prices. B6's yield has gone down due to pressures at BOS/FLL. But it has also declined due to upgauging, more seats to A320s and longer stage length. All of the latter factors should lower their CASM quite a bit. If they also see 15% lower fuel prices, it would be hard for me to imagine their margins not improve over last year. With more A321NEOs and A220 coming in starting next year, their CASM is about to fall off the cliff in a good way. The A220s is a huge game changer for them. And same with A321XLR.

And if margin numbers don't look good, expect Cuba, MCO transcons and LGB to be cut before they stop growing BOS.

It seems like in recent month, BOS has actually been shrinking rather than expanding domestically. That just shows with the current yield pressure, they have the opportunity to really build up their operations. They just need to keep their cost in control and not mess up entering Europe.
 
flyby519
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jan 14, 2020 10:02 pm

tphuang wrote:
RL757PVD wrote:
tphuang wrote:

they should be able to reach 200 target quite easily by March of 2021 based on what they've announced so far. Beyond that, I think peak 250 is quite reasonable target for 2025. That would be about 10 new flights a year from 2021 to 2025. By then, Terminal E expansion will be all done, XLR and A220 would be all delivered. Probably need to wait a couple of more years if they can get more gates to expand beyond that. I don't know if the terminal or runway will allow for expansion past that.

On the existing markets they are in, they can probably add another 15 to 20 flights. There will be maybe 15 TATL flights and probably another 10 to 20 for new non-TATL markets. I wouldn't be surprised if they hit 40% domestic market share by this fall. 45% domestic market share is probably a reasonable medium term goal.

A lot could change in 2 or 3 years. Maybe we have a large recession and everyone starts to cut back at BOS. Maybe B6 will be able to get even more gates from that. Maybe they will chose to focus building out other focus cities. I certainly don't think it's out of question that their continued expansion will cause such yield weakness at BOS that other airlines will start to cut back, which would open up space at B or E.


Sure they can physically do it, but I was more referring to, can they do it and still post numbers that are acceptable to Wall Street, specially compared to what DL just posted.


I think with their recent moves, B6 has shown their fully committed to totally build out BOS. There is little room for them to grow at NYC outside of upgauging and maybe a few more flights at EWR. Florida right now looks like a basket case with all the ULCC pressure there. All that A321s and A220s coming in have to go somewhere and the most logical place is BOS.

You will notice that even with the headline revenue increases for DL, their margin only increased a little bit YoY due to 15% lower fuel prices. B6's yield has gone down due to pressures at BOS/FLL. But it has also declined due to upgauging, more seats to A320s and longer stage length. All of the latter factors should lower their CASM quite a bit. If they also see 15% lower fuel prices, it would be hard for me to imagine their margins not improve over last year. With more A321NEOs and A220 coming in starting next year, their CASM is about to fall off the cliff in a good way. The A220s is a huge game changer for them. And same with A321XLR.

And if margin numbers don't look good, expect Cuba, MCO transcons and LGB to be cut before they stop growing BOS.

It seems like in recent month, BOS has actually been shrinking rather than expanding domestically. That just shows with the current yield pressure, they have the opportunity to really build up their operations. They just need to keep their cost in control and not mess up entering Europe.


Do you think B6 will hit their $2.50-$3.00 EPS target for 2020?
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue Jan 14, 2020 10:07 pm

That is way beyond my expertise. I wouldn't be investing in any airlines stocks. That's for sure.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 16, 2020 2:01 am

Looks like long beach might be on the chopping block. Maybe the news will come out as early as Thursday?

https://paxex.aero/2020/01/jetblue-long ... -city-cut/

I will post the LGB numbers soon. Let's just say as a whole, things aren't getting any better.
 
CaptCoolHand
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 16, 2020 2:48 am

Yea. Rumors flying about the demise of LGB and moving ops to lax.

All rumor now.
 
flyby519
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 16, 2020 4:04 am

jfklganyc wrote:

Heard and ugly rumor about West Coast changes coming. We shall see what comes


Looks like we will find out tomorrow...
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 16, 2020 1:14 pm

Yeh, sorry to the people effected

Hopefully they bump up LAX to keep the base

What a mess
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 16, 2020 1:42 pm

To recap:

This day was always coming

The relationship between the city and the airline was just toxic...Im not sure why as they were the largest employer at the airport in a city that needs large employers

This forum and Long Beach are about to find out what demand for those slots is, particularly from WN

I suspect, down the road, this whole mess will be looked on with regret by the City Council. They will have a beautiful new terminal and a lot less passengers to pay for it
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 16, 2020 2:14 pm

on a separate topic, while we wait for the LGB news.

https://leehamnews.com/2020/01/16/air-c ... ice-today/
Interesting that we now have AC confirming the economics of A220-300. It's said that
"Air Canada configures the -300 with 137 passengers in business and coach classes. The typical two-class configuration for the A320neo is about 156 seats. The 737-8’s typical configuration is about 172 seats.

Still, Scherer said the seat mile costs of the -300 are up to 5% better than these two airplanes. The trip costs are 7%-10% better, he said on the sidelines of the event.

I had calculated that 140 seat A220-300 would be about 2 to 3% better in CASM than 162 seat A320NEO based on comments made by B6. And now AC is saying 137 seat A220-300 is up to 5% better than 156 A320NEO. If A220-500 is available, it will be quite the CASM monster. B6 really should jump on this aircraft while slots are still available.
 
tphuang
Posts: 3879
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 16, 2020 6:31 pm

Here is the LGB numbers from Q3 in light of the recent news. I'm posting all the routes here
CityPair Dist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare % NS PerFlight # Flights LF Yield PRASM Vs B6
LGBSFO 354 B6 34156 114.85 114.85 000.00 100.00% 150.5 328 69.17% 79.44 0.2244 100.00%
LGBOAK 353 B6 47111 109.06 109.06 000.00 100.00% 151.1 408 76.39% 83.32 0.2360 100.00%
LGBOAK 353 WN 93938 104.99 104.93 175.16 99.92% 151.4 749 82.85% 86.94 0.2463 104.34%
LGBSJC 324 B6 31956 101.73 101.73 000.00 100.00% 150.0 368 57.89% 58.90 0.1818 100.00%
LGBSJC 324 WN 54944 090.26 090.06 285.00 99.90% 143.0 698 55.05% 49.58 0.1530 84.18%
LGBSMF 387 B6 41662 094.29 094.29 000.00 100.00% 150.0 368 75.47% 71.16 0.1839 100.00%
LGBSMF 387 WN 87835 099.72 099.66 141.59 99.86% 147.9 728 81.56% 81.29 0.2101 114.23%
LGBLAS 231 B6 66092 101.75 101.75 000.00 100.00% 152.9 531 81.42% 82.84 0.3586 100.00%
LGBLAS 231 WN 63052 086.34 086.34 000.00 100.00% 143.9 546 80.23% 69.27 0.2999 83.61%
LGBSEA 965 B6 48185 154.86 154.86 000.00 100.00% 150.0 366 87.77% 135.92 0.1409 100.00%
LGBPDX 846 B6 25009 138.19 138.19 000.00 100.00% 150.0 183 91.11% 125.90 0.1488 100.00%
LGBRNO 402 B6 23248 146.21 146.21 000.00 100.00% 152.9 184 82.62% 120.79 0.3005 100.00%
LGBSLC 588 B6 68508 117.84 117.84 000.00 100.00% 151.2 515 88.00% 103.70 0.1764 100.00%
LGBSLC 588 CP 5345 129.17 129.17 000.00 100.00% 076.0 78 90.21% 116.53 0.1982 112.37%
LGBSLC 588 OO 45524 160.19 160.19 000.00 100.00% 075.3 657 92.02% 147.41 0.2507 142.15%
LGBAUS 1226 B6 23949 158.68 158.68 000.00 100.00% 150.0 184 86.77% 137.69 0.1123 100.00%
LGBPHX 355 YV 33332 179.61 179.61 000.00 100.00% 077.7 510 84.06% 150.98 0.4253 N/A
LGBDEN 854 WN 21543 136.14 135.64 153.41 97.16% 143.3 184 81.68% 110.78 0.1297 N/A
LGBBZN 904 B6 4569 152.09 152.09 000.00 100.00% 150.0 36 84.61% 128.69 0.1424 100.00%

From what I can see, SJC was far and away the worst. OAK/SFO are about equally terrible, but SFO gets kept around due to general weakness of OAK station. SMF was the 2nd worst. LAS was not that bad. SEA did pretty well and same with PDX. RNO did pretyt well. SLC was okay. AUS was not great. BZN did pretty well in summer time.

I also posted the other carriers here including WN at DEN. That's a route without any competition for WN and the yields are horrendous. We will see what WN does here. If they think LGB is some magic replacement for SNA or even a compliment to BUR, they are way off he mark.

So if they are going down to 15 flights, I think it will be cut the 2x OAK, 2x SJC, 2x SMF and 1 off LAS. Everything else is okay and unlikely to face additional WN competition outside of maybe one more flight to LAS. Given BZN's better number in summer time, I think they should at least try seasonal 2x weekly to JFK and BOS.

Also, I read that OAK is cut, which is not too surprising. It's the lowest performing station to JFK and BOS. To me, that's an even bigger news than LGB reduction. That's a lot of airtime freed up.
 
juan885
Posts: 20
Joined: Fri Mar 20, 2015 8:56 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 16, 2020 8:03 pm

JFK-GUA 1x daily starting June
JFK-BNA 2x daily in April
 
ScottB
Posts: 6746
Joined: Fri Jul 28, 2000 1:25 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 16, 2020 8:05 pm

I'm surprised no one has posted this yet. Maybe folks have been distracted by the LGB cuts.

http://otp.investis.com/clients/us/jetb ... wsid=64947

* LGB cuts and discontinuation of OAK confirmed.
* New daily red-eye service from JFK to GUA.
* Seasonal service from JFK & BOS to BZN.
* JFK-BNA added at twice-daily.
* JFK-HAV dropping to weekly on Saturday.
* Unspecified future additions at BOS/JFK/FLL/MCO.
 
tphuang
Posts: 3879
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 16, 2020 8:10 pm

full news release on what happened today.
http://otp.investis.com/clients/us/jetb ... wsid=64947

interesting how many of predictions have already happened here.

tphuang wrote:
My predictions for this year (announcements, not necessarily start in 2020).

From JFK -
GUA/UIO/SAL - Looks like GUA is a done deal already. SAL I think will get announced also. UIO is a little iffy. Not sure if high altitude will allow this to happen. If they add these, then their Latin America VFR network out of JFK is complete.
BNA - I'm going to predict again that JFK-BNA will get added this year with 2 flights.
BZN - Another route I think will be enabled by A220. Once a week in winter time.

Possible cuts to fund this and the European flights
HAV - why is this still daily? Should be made 1x per week on Saturday.


looks like Cuba down to 3x daily to FLL and 1x weekly to JFK. About the right amount of capacity. Maybe they can lose another flight to HAV from FLL. I assume BOS/MCO-HAV are done.

BZN got way more capacity than I expected.
JetBlue also today announced it is expanding its successful service at Montana’s Bozeman Yellowstone International Airport (BZN) with flights to and from the east coast. New nonstop service from New York-JFK and Boston Logan International Airport (BOS) will operate on both a summer seasonal and winter seasonal schedule starting in June. New York flights will operate three times weekly or up to daily at various times throughout the seasons. Boston flights will operate twice weekly on Saturdays and Wednesdays. Schedule dates for the winter season will be announced as part of our next schedule extensions for the period.


GUA schedule looks like your typical VFR schedule with low quality slots.
Daily Beginning June 1, 2020
JFK - GUA Flight #625
7:00 p.m. – 10:15 p.m.

GUA - JFK Flight #628
11:25 p.m. – 6:00 a.m. (+1)


BNA got some much higher quality slots. I'm surprised this got announced so close to start date

JFK - BNA Flight #1073
8:00 a.m. – 9:39 a.m.

BNA - JFK Flight #1074
10:25 a.m. – 1:48 p.m.

JFK - BNA Flight #983
4:40 p.m. – 6:19 p.m.

BNA - JFK Flight #978
7:05 p.m. – 10:28 p.m.


These others parts are curious. I'm curious to see where these additional changes are. I guess we will find out with OAG
To enable the new city, multi-route expansions and frequency additions, JetBlue will redeploy aircraft by adding flights on some existing routes and reducing flights on others that are not meeting expectations.

Throughout 2020, JetBlue will increase flights on more than a half dozen popular routes during peak travel periods in New York, Boston, Fort Lauderdale, Orlando and Latin America and the Caribbean.
Effective April 29, 2020, JetBlue will end service at Oakland International Airport (OAK) where it currently serves New York-JFK, Boston and Long Beach. JetBlue will continue to serve Bay Area travelers from airports in San Francisco and San Jose. In addition, JetBlue will reduce or eliminate flights on a half dozen short-haul routes in Long Beach as well as additional flights from Fort Lauderdale and Orlando.

tough, not sure what they are trimming from FLL. It has already seen a lot of cuts from daily to 3x weekly. Same with MCO.
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 1826
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 16, 2020 8:11 pm

ScottB wrote:
I'm surprised no one has posted this yet. Maybe folks have been distracted by the LGB cuts.

http://otp.investis.com/clients/us/jetb ... wsid=64947

* LGB cuts and discontinuation of OAK confirmed.
* New daily red-eye service from JFK to GUA.
* Seasonal service from JFK & BOS to BZN.
* JFK-BNA added at twice-daily.
* JFK-HAV dropping to weekly on Saturday.
* Unspecified future additions at BOS/JFK/FLL/MCO.


That BZN flight will be great for me if it is still around in summer 2021.
 
avi8
Posts: 1140
Joined: Sun Jun 26, 2011 1:36 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 16, 2020 8:46 pm

So far, the flights I've been looking at from GUA aren't necessarily cheap. Around 750$ round trip JFK-GUA in the middle of June and July.
avi8
 
Iggy500
Posts: 48
Joined: Sat Jul 06, 2019 6:40 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 16, 2020 9:05 pm

For LGB, I have heard that UA, DL, AS, and WN are trying to steal some slots that B6 gave up. B6 might actually think about closing their LGB hub. This can only happen if:

UA adds LGB-SFO. I don't know why B6 is the only carrier flying this route.
AS adds LGB-SEA/PDX. AS has served LGB in the past, so it could be possible.
DL adds LGB-SEA, and upgauge their current LGB routes. I saw that one of their LGB-SLC flights are using B738s and A319s.
WN adds more routes and frequencies from LGB.

I personally think that the LGB era for B6 is coming to an end, but what do you guys think? Will B6 continue to hold on to LGB, or will they close LGB for good?
 
User avatar
dabpit
Posts: 839
Joined: Tue May 01, 2012 10:19 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 16, 2020 9:15 pm

They are also raising the price of the first checked bag from $30 to $35 and the second checked bag from $40 to $45.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/16/business ... index.html
Carpe Diem
 
Brickell305
Posts: 782
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 16, 2020 9:54 pm

tphuang wrote:
full news release on what happened today.
http://otp.investis.com/clients/us/jetb ... wsid=64947

interesting how many of predictions have already happened here.

tphuang wrote:
My predictions for this year (announcements, not necessarily start in 2020).

From JFK -
GUA/UIO/SAL - Looks like GUA is a done deal already. SAL I think will get announced also. UIO is a little iffy. Not sure if high altitude will allow this to happen. If they add these, then their Latin America VFR network out of JFK is complete.
BNA - I'm going to predict again that JFK-BNA will get added this year with 2 flights.
BZN - Another route I think will be enabled by A220. Once a week in winter time.

Possible cuts to fund this and the European flights
HAV - why is this still daily? Should be made 1x per week on Saturday.


looks like Cuba down to 3x daily to FLL and 1x weekly to JFK. About the right amount of capacity. Maybe they can lose another flight to HAV from FLL. I assume BOS/MCO-HAV are done.

BZN got way more capacity than I expected.
JetBlue also today announced it is expanding its successful service at Montana’s Bozeman Yellowstone International Airport (BZN) with flights to and from the east coast. New nonstop service from New York-JFK and Boston Logan International Airport (BOS) will operate on both a summer seasonal and winter seasonal schedule starting in June. New York flights will operate three times weekly or up to daily at various times throughout the seasons. Boston flights will operate twice weekly on Saturdays and Wednesdays. Schedule dates for the winter season will be announced as part of our next schedule extensions for the period.


GUA schedule looks like your typical VFR schedule with low quality slots.
Daily Beginning June 1, 2020
JFK - GUA Flight #625
7:00 p.m. – 10:15 p.m.

GUA - JFK Flight #628
11:25 p.m. – 6:00 a.m. (+1)


BNA got some much higher quality slots. I'm surprised this got announced so close to start date

JFK - BNA Flight #1073
8:00 a.m. – 9:39 a.m.

BNA - JFK Flight #1074
10:25 a.m. – 1:48 p.m.

JFK - BNA Flight #983
4:40 p.m. – 6:19 p.m.

BNA - JFK Flight #978
7:05 p.m. – 10:28 p.m.


These others parts are curious. I'm curious to see where these additional changes are. I guess we will find out with OAG
To enable the new city, multi-route expansions and frequency additions, JetBlue will redeploy aircraft by adding flights on some existing routes and reducing flights on others that are not meeting expectations.

Throughout 2020, JetBlue will increase flights on more than a half dozen popular routes during peak travel periods in New York, Boston, Fort Lauderdale, Orlando and Latin America and the Caribbean.
Effective April 29, 2020, JetBlue will end service at Oakland International Airport (OAK) where it currently serves New York-JFK, Boston and Long Beach. JetBlue will continue to serve Bay Area travelers from airports in San Francisco and San Jose. In addition, JetBlue will reduce or eliminate flights on a half dozen short-haul routes in Long Beach as well as additional flights from Fort Lauderdale and Orlando.

tough, not sure what they are trimming from FLL. It has already seen a lot of cuts from daily to 3x weekly. Same with MCO.

They're dropping BGI/STI from FLL and HAV/PAP from MCO.

https://thepointsguy.com/news/jetblue-o ... e-shakeup/
 
User avatar
gatibosgru
Posts: 1709
Joined: Thu Oct 18, 2007 2:48 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 16, 2020 10:03 pm

Sucks to see FLL-BGI go. Back to going out of MIA on AA.
@DadCelo
 
nine4nine
Posts: 560
Joined: Tue Mar 28, 2017 3:44 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 16, 2020 10:08 pm

Iggy500 wrote:
For LGB, I have heard that UA, DL, AS, and WN are trying to steal some slots that B6 gave up. B6 might actually think about closing their LGB hub. This can only happen if:

UA adds LGB-SFO. I don't know why B6 is the only carrier flying this route.
AS adds LGB-SEA/PDX. AS has served LGB in the past, so it could be possible.
DL adds LGB-SEA, and upgauge their current LGB routes. I saw that one of their LGB-SLC flights are using B738s and A319s.
WN adds more routes and frequencies from LGB.

I personally think that the LGB era for B6 is coming to an end, but what do you guys think? Will B6 continue to hold
on to LGB, or will they close LGB for good?


UA and AS I doubt and that is probably just a rumor and nothing more. I cannot think AS would even attempt a 4th try at LGB. UA has LAX and SNA pretty SFO saturated and if B6 can’t full planes why would they be interested in a half full flight at best and no yields.
717, 727-100, 727-200, 732, 733, 734, 735, 73G, 738, 739, 742, 748, 752, 753, 762, 763, 772, 77W, 787-10, DC9, MD80/88/90, DC10, 319, 220-300, 320, 321, 321n, 332, 333, CS100, CRJ200, Q400, E175, E190, ERJ145, EMB120
 
tphuang
Posts: 3879
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 16, 2020 10:22 pm

So let's see. Out of JFK.
BNA is basically replacing CLT.
GUA is basically replacing MEX.
GEO is basically replace HAV.
BZN is replacing OAK.

The first two should do well. Not sure if there is enough demand in NYC for daily service to BZN in the peak month. That seems a little aggressive. A very high fare market that will become low fare if they don't advertise it. In Q2, it was only 70 PDEW. There is definitely potentially a lot more demand than that to yellowstone park from new yorkers in summer time. The arrival time from BZN really stinks though. B6 loves those red-eye flights.

Let's see what else gets additions. Slots for peak season has to be pretty tight.

Out of BOS, my guess is that more additions are coming that has yet to be announced. They must be planning something in response to AA's adds. If I had to guess, most of the aircraft time will get redeployed to BOS.

The FLL cuts are tough, but probably predictable. The STI/BGI loads were always below 70%. MCO-PAP was also always below 70%. Not a surprise that got cut.

I'm surprised not a bigger deal was made out of closing OAK.

avi8 wrote:
So far, the flights I've been looking at from GUA aren't necessarily cheap. Around 750$ round trip JFK-GUA in the middle of June and July.

they don't need to price it low when they have a monopoly from JFK and there is enough demand in the tri-state area. If they can't fill the planes in the peak summer season, the prices will drop.

Just waiting to see if SAL gets added now. B6 loves these JFK VFR flights that make money without using good slots.
 
User avatar
VS4ever
Posts: 2493
Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2004 10:03 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 16, 2020 10:26 pm

tphuang wrote:

Just waiting to see if SAL gets added now. B6 loves these JFK VFR flights that make money without using good slots.


Interesting thought, considering all the refurbishments are being done there too. Might be a good way to get planes in and out and get some revenue rather than ferry flights each way to FLL
That feeling when you sit at the end of a runway, brakes are released and the raw power takes over. Now that is a thing of beauty and it never gets old.
 
wnflyguy
Posts: 1748
Joined: Thu Feb 10, 2011 7:58 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 16, 2020 10:30 pm

Iggy500 wrote:
For LGB, I have heard that UA, DL, AS, and WN are trying to steal some slots that B6 gave up. B6 might actually think about closing their LGB hub. This can only happen if:

UA adds LGB-SFO. I don't know why B6 is the only carrier flying this route.
AS adds LGB-SEA/PDX. AS has served LGB in the past, so it could be possible.
DL adds LGB-SEA, and upgauge their current LGB routes. I saw that one of their LGB-SLC flights are using B738s and A319s.
WN adds more routes and frequencies from LGB.

I personally think that the LGB era for B6 is coming to an end, but what do you guys think? Will B6 continue to hold on to LGB, or will they close LGB for good?


From the LGB airport the only airlines on the waiting list for more slots are Southwest,Delta and Hawaiian.
Hawaiian has passed on the last two times slots were available.
DL still isn't fully using its last round of slots awarded.

Flyguy
my post are my opinion only and not those of southwest airlines and or airtran airlines.
 
tphuang
Posts: 3879
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 16, 2020 10:33 pm

wnflyguy wrote:
Iggy500 wrote:
For LGB, I have heard that UA, DL, AS, and WN are trying to steal some slots that B6 gave up. B6 might actually think about closing their LGB hub. This can only happen if:

UA adds LGB-SFO. I don't know why B6 is the only carrier flying this route.
AS adds LGB-SEA/PDX. AS has served LGB in the past, so it could be possible.
DL adds LGB-SEA, and upgauge their current LGB routes. I saw that one of their LGB-SLC flights are using B738s and A319s.
WN adds more routes and frequencies from LGB.

I personally think that the LGB era for B6 is coming to an end, but what do you guys think? Will B6 continue to hold on to LGB, or will they close LGB for good?


From the LGB airport the only airlines on the waiting list for more slots are Southwest,Delta and Hawaiian.
Hawaiian has passed on the last two times slots were available.
DL still isn't fully using its last round of slots awarded.

Flyguy

Serious question here. Seeing that wn is doing terribly in every lgb market so far, why are you this excited about more slots for them?
 
Iggy500
Posts: 48
Joined: Sat Jul 06, 2019 6:40 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 16, 2020 10:39 pm

tphuang wrote:
wnflyguy wrote:
Iggy500 wrote:
For LGB, I have heard that UA, DL, AS, and WN are trying to steal some slots that B6 gave up. B6 might actually think about closing their LGB hub. This can only happen if:

UA adds LGB-SFO. I don't know why B6 is the only carrier flying this route.
AS adds LGB-SEA/PDX. AS has served LGB in the past, so it could be possible.
DL adds LGB-SEA, and upgauge their current LGB routes. I saw that one of their LGB-SLC flights are using B738s and A319s.
WN adds more routes and frequencies from LGB.

I personally think that the LGB era for B6 is coming to an end, but what do you guys think? Will B6 continue to hold on to LGB, or will they close LGB for good?


From the LGB airport the only airlines on the waiting list for more slots are Southwest,Delta and Hawaiian.
Hawaiian has passed on the last two times slots were available.
DL still isn't fully using its last round of slots awarded.

Flyguy

Serious question here. Seeing that wn is doing terribly in every lgb market so far, why are you this excited about more slots for them?


I'm not necessarily excited about it, but I just believe that B6's time in LGB is almost up. Since they returned to ONT, continue to reduce flights from LGB, and looking at other options in the west coast, I just think that B6 leaving LGB would be the end result.
 
CobaltScar
Posts: 561
Joined: Thu Mar 23, 2017 2:30 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 16, 2020 10:40 pm

I'm excited about WN falling into the same trap B6 once did and tries to corner the market in LGB, thus vacating far more important stations like they did at EWR to make more room for B6 adds that actually make money.

Or maybe (taken together with the OAK drop) this is all part of that long game merger of the two. Show the regs how little overlap they have.
 
User avatar
BanjoYoshi
Posts: 15
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 16, 2020 10:40 pm

So jetblue moves from hobby to IAH now they cutting OAK hmmm seems like something between SW & B6 is brewing.... I just have a feeling
 
MAH4546
Posts: 25989
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 16, 2020 11:48 pm

Boston-Havana and Orlando-Havana are gone; JFK-Havana goes to just 1x a week.

I bet Delta and AA scoop up those Havana slots for Miami flights.
a.
 
tphuang
Posts: 3879
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 17, 2020 2:48 am

https://paxex.aero/2020/01/jetblue-long ... cuts-2020/
A summary of the changes.
aside from the above, looks like the following seasonal changes
5th JFK-LAS flight in summer
3rd JFK-BGI flight in summer
3rd JFK-MBJ flight in winter
2x daily on MCO-CUN/MBJ in summer (I thought these were already 2x for some reason)
3x daily on MCO-RIC in winter (good add)
2x FLL-PVD in winter (surprised it's taken this long)

Seems like FLL has really taken one to gut recently with a lot of cuts. Just not the same tolerance for weak performances. FLL has not done well in Q3/4.

At JFK, looks like they are taking advantage of the AA retreat. That 5th LAS flight should fill in nicely for AA probably dropping LAS soon. Before this, flights/capacity had dropped on JFK-LAS with AS/AA cuts despite demand remaining strong. 2x JFK-BNA will probably push AA and its 44 seaters off that route. Seems like they are up 4 flights in peak summer season (unless there is cuts elsewhere). Not really sure where those slots are coming from. They are probably over 180 flights a day now in peak summer season.

Overall, quite a positive day for JFK. There is really very few weak routes left out of JFK. The weakest ones left are probably PDX, RNO, ABQ, BTV, CHS and SAV. If they have to make more adjustments. The best part is finally dropping HAV and replaced it with flights people actually want to take.

I see that UA is dropping CLE-LGA. I wonder what it would take for them to get those slots off UA.

I think there will be further BOS changes that will get its own announcement. I would think there has to be some kind of retaliation against AA.
 
heavymetal
Posts: 4582
Joined: Fri May 08, 2015 3:37 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 17, 2020 4:19 am

tphuang wrote:
on a separate topic, while we wait for the LGB news.

https://leehamnews.com/2020/01/16/air-c ... ice-today/
Interesting that we now have AC confirming the economics of A220-300. It's said that
"Air Canada configures the -300 with 137 passengers in business and coach classes. The typical two-class configuration for the A320neo is about 156 seats. The 737-8’s typical configuration is about 172 seats.

Still, Scherer said the seat mile costs of the -300 are up to 5% better than these two airplanes. The trip costs are 7%-10% better, he said on the sidelines of the event.

I had calculated that 140 seat A220-300 would be about 2 to 3% better in CASM than 162 seat A320NEO based on comments made by B6. And now AC is saying 137 seat A220-300 is up to 5% better than 156 A320NEO. If A220-500 is available, it will be quite the CASM monster. B6 really should jump on this aircraft while slots are still available.


It should be noted that the quote on economics is from Airbus’ Chief Commercial Officer, not from Air Canada. Read into that as you wish, but Leeham suggests it may be a bit of sales hype.

I also can’t quite get his numbers to add up. He says trip costs are 7-10% better, but with 15-20% fewer seats, that doesn’t equate to 5% seat cost improvement. Maybe it’s a misunderstanding, but A223 trip costs would need to be 20-25% lower vs a B7M8 to yield a seat cost improvement of 5%.

B7M8 hypothetical trip cost = 1,000
B7M8 seats per Leeham = 172
B7M8 cost/seat = 5.8

A223 trip cost = 900 (10% better than B7M8)
A223 seats per Leeham = 137
A223 cost/seat = 6.6

A223 cost/seat = 14% higher than B7M8

Even at max seating, but same costs above
B7M8 seats = 189
A223 seats = 160

B7M8 cost/seat = 5.3
A223 cost/seat = 5.6

A223 cost/seat = 6% higher

At max seats, 5% better vs B7M8 above = 5.3*0.95 = 5.04

5.04 * 160 = 806 trip cost

1 - 806/1,000 = 19% required improvement A233 trip cost vs B7M8 to get 5% seat cost improvement
 
tphuang
Posts: 3879
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 17, 2020 11:11 am

heavymetal wrote:
tphuang wrote:
on a separate topic, while we wait for the LGB news.

https://leehamnews.com/2020/01/16/air-c ... ice-today/
Interesting that we now have AC confirming the economics of A220-300. It's said that
"Air Canada configures the -300 with 137 passengers in business and coach classes. The typical two-class configuration for the A320neo is about 156 seats. The 737-8’s typical configuration is about 172 seats.

Still, Scherer said the seat mile costs of the -300 are up to 5% better than these two airplanes. The trip costs are 7%-10% better, he said on the sidelines of the event.

I had calculated that 140 seat A220-300 would be about 2 to 3% better in CASM than 162 seat A320NEO based on comments made by B6. And now AC is saying 137 seat A220-300 is up to 5% better than 156 A320NEO. If A220-500 is available, it will be quite the CASM monster. B6 really should jump on this aircraft while slots are still available.


It should be noted that the quote on economics is from Airbus’ Chief Commercial Officer, not from Air Canada. Read into that as you wish, but Leeham suggests it may be a bit of sales hype.

I also can’t quite get his numbers to add up. He says trip costs are 7-10% better, but with 15-20% fewer seats, that doesn’t equate to 5% seat cost improvement. Maybe it’s a misunderstanding, but A223 trip costs would need to be 20-25% lower vs a B7M8 to yield a seat cost improvement of 5%.

B7M8 hypothetical trip cost = 1,000
B7M8 seats per Leeham = 172
B7M8 cost/seat = 5.8

A223 trip cost = 900 (10% better than B7M8)
A223 seats per Leeham = 137
A223 cost/seat = 6.6

A223 cost/seat = 14% higher than B7M8

Even at max seating, but same costs above
B7M8 seats = 189
A223 seats = 160

B7M8 cost/seat = 5.3
A223 cost/seat = 5.6

A223 cost/seat = 6% higher

At max seats, 5% better vs B7M8 above = 5.3*0.95 = 5.04

5.04 * 160 = 806 trip cost

1 - 806/1,000 = 19% required improvement A233 trip cost vs B7M8 to get 5% seat cost improvement

I am pretty sure that trip cost part is a mistake because b6 said a220 trip cost is same as e90, which is 20% lower than a320.
 
tphuang
Posts: 3879
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 17, 2020 3:32 pm

Alright, this is a look at how well B6 did in the summer leisure market nearby. Since I included PWM here, I also added BUF/SYR/ROC/BTV as comparison.
CityPairDist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare% NS PerFlight# Flights LF Yield
JFKHYA 196 B6 09750 203.47 203.00 235.55 98.54% 100.0 129 75.58% 153.43
JFKACK 199 B6 39020 199.62 199.38 270.09 99.66% 100.0 610 63.97% 127.54
LGAACK 202 9E 03591 204.97 204.97 000.00 100.00% 049.9 087 82.74% 169.60
LGAACK 202 B6 09484 202.08 200.92 320.24 99.03% 100.0 164 57.83% 116.19
HPNACK 191 B6 08436 191.32 191.32 000.00 100.00% 100.0 132 63.91% 122.27
BOSACK 091 B6 19143 176.07 176.07 000.00 100.00% 100.0 263 72.79% 128.15
DCAACK 405 B6 05597 208.15 196.97 258.23 81.75% 100.0 076 73.64% 145.06
DCAACK 405 YX 13990 289.57 174.49 347.11 33.33% 075.9 215 85.73% 149.59
JFKMVY 173 B6 22649 223.99 223.81 265.19 99.56% 100.0 314 72.13% 161.43
BOSMVY 070 B6 11133 148.53 148.53 000.00 100.00% 100.0 159 70.02% 104.00
JFKPWM 273 9E 24819 177.44 177.44 000.00 100.00% 058.7 493 85.78% 152.20
JFKPWM 273 B6 38967 178.85 178.85 000.00 100.00% 100.7 482 80.26% 143.55
JFKBTV 266 9E 23300 129.98 129.98 000.00 100.00% 058.2 502 79.72% 103.63
JFKBTV 266 B6 42009 128.29 128.29 000.00 100.00% 101.0 542 76.73% 098.43
JFKBUF 301 9E 55565 153.42 153.40 154.05 97.85% 076.0 819 89.29% 136.97
JFKBUF 301 B6 83715 162.70 162.38 360.91 99.84% 101.5 937 88.06% 142.99
JFKSYR 209 9E 25617 130.69 130.69 000.00 100.00% 066.7 509 75.47% 098.62
JFKSYR 209 B6 27632 122.92 121.75 424.60 99.61% 101.4 361 75.50% 091.92
JFKROC 264 9E 28384 161.44 161.44 000.00 100.00% 073.0 453 85.82% 138.55
JFKROC 264 B6 44055 149.29 149.31 137.50 99.79% 100.2 532 82.65% 123.41

Keep in mind that B6 added a lot of ACK capacity last summer which had an adverse affect on the Q2 numbers, since they started the ACK season really early this past year. Q3 numbers looked a lot more in line with 2018.

HYA had about the same capacity and yield was about the same.

JFK/LGA/HPN-ACK definitely had lower yield than JFK-ACK from 2018. Down from 148 to 125 this past summer. So 2018 was 18% higher. This was due to 35% more flights. I think they probably made more money overall than 2018 on ACK even with the lower margins, but maybe they should not have stuck to basically the same capacity this summer of 2020. Or at least, I would advocate EWR-ACK instead of LGA-ACK, since LGA/JFK captures a lot of the same customers.

DCAACK did really well. Yield was up 12%. This probably explains why they are adding DCA-MVY this summer.

BOS-ACK was up 5% over a year ago, so they added a 3rd flight here.

JFK-MVY was down 9% over a year ago but remains the highest margined route in the system.

BOS-MVY was down a little more than that, but should still be a profitable route. Maybe it's competing too much with car+ferry option here.

The one I was surprised about was JFK-PWM. It's yield was only worse than MVY and HYA. There is no way this route gets canceled with that kind of number.

Looking at the remaining E90 routes out of JFK, BUF does really well in summer time. I assume there is a lot of leisure demand here in summer time to Niagara falls and maybe wine region of Canada. This year they cut a flight for the summer and the numbers looked even better. ROC does well enough in summer time. SYR/BTV remains as weak as previous years. BTV could be in danger if it's not around for political reasons.

Looking at this, I think BZN should do well as a summer destination. BNA should also do well in summer season. I'm sure B6 is looking at the leisure demand there as well as the business demand.

Any other summer destinations we can think of that B6 could try for NYC/Boston folks?
 
CobaltScar
Posts: 561
Joined: Thu Mar 23, 2017 2:30 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 17, 2020 3:46 pm

tphuang wrote:
Any other summer destinations we can think of that B6 could try for NYC/Boston folks?


How about Iceland?
 
KlimaBXsst
Posts: 637
Joined: Wed Jan 23, 2019 4:14 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 17, 2020 3:53 pm

If a JetBlue hub, focus city, or large catchment area such as OAK on the west coast, can’t support MINT, well maybe JetBlue should not be there in the first place.

How is MINT doing out of LGB?
Aesthetically the A 340 got it right!
 
JoseSalazar
Posts: 83
Joined: Mon Oct 14, 2019 3:18 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 17, 2020 4:01 pm

KlimaBXsst wrote:
If a JetBlue hub, focus city, or large catchment area such as OAK on the west coast, can’t support MINT, well maybe JetBlue should not be there in the first place.

How is MINT doing out of LGB?

MINT pax go to SFO in that area, which is where JB flies mint. OAK never had it.

Similarly, LAX has all the MINT flights in the LA basin...there are none at LGB/BUR/ONT, for now.
 
KlimaBXsst
Posts: 637
Joined: Wed Jan 23, 2019 4:14 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 17, 2020 4:06 pm

JoseSalazar wrote:
KlimaBXsst wrote:
If a JetBlue hub, focus city, or large catchment area such as OAK on the west coast, can’t support MINT, well maybe JetBlue should not be there in the first place.

How is MINT doing out of LGB?

MINT pax go to SFO in that area, which is where JB flies mint. OAK never had it.

Similarly, LAX has all the MINT flights in the LA basin...there are none at LGB/BUR/ONT, for now.


Oh, no MINT out of the LGB focus city. That is kind of odd?
Aesthetically the A 340 got it right!
 
mjgbtv
Posts: 1029
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2008 2:18 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 17, 2020 4:31 pm

tphuang wrote:
Alright, this is a look at how well B6 did in the summer leisure market nearby. Since I included PWM here, I also added BUF/SYR/ROC/BTV as comparison.
CityPairDist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare% NS PerFlight# Flights LF Yield
JFKHYA 196 B6 09750 203.47 203.00 235.55 98.54% 100.0 129 75.58% 153.43
JFKACK 199 B6 39020 199.62 199.38 270.09 99.66% 100.0 610 63.97% 127.54
LGAACK 202 9E 03591 204.97 204.97 000.00 100.00% 049.9 087 82.74% 169.60
LGAACK 202 B6 09484 202.08 200.92 320.24 99.03% 100.0 164 57.83% 116.19
HPNACK 191 B6 08436 191.32 191.32 000.00 100.00% 100.0 132 63.91% 122.27
BOSACK 091 B6 19143 176.07 176.07 000.00 100.00% 100.0 263 72.79% 128.15
DCAACK 405 B6 05597 208.15 196.97 258.23 81.75% 100.0 076 73.64% 145.06
DCAACK 405 YX 13990 289.57 174.49 347.11 33.33% 075.9 215 85.73% 149.59
JFKMVY 173 B6 22649 223.99 223.81 265.19 99.56% 100.0 314 72.13% 161.43
BOSMVY 070 B6 11133 148.53 148.53 000.00 100.00% 100.0 159 70.02% 104.00
JFKPWM 273 9E 24819 177.44 177.44 000.00 100.00% 058.7 493 85.78% 152.20
JFKPWM 273 B6 38967 178.85 178.85 000.00 100.00% 100.7 482 80.26% 143.55
JFKBTV 266 9E 23300 129.98 129.98 000.00 100.00% 058.2 502 79.72% 103.63
JFKBTV 266 B6 42009 128.29 128.29 000.00 100.00% 101.0 542 76.73% 098.43
JFKBUF 301 9E 55565 153.42 153.40 154.05 97.85% 076.0 819 89.29% 136.97
JFKBUF 301 B6 83715 162.70 162.38 360.91 99.84% 101.5 937 88.06% 142.99
JFKSYR 209 9E 25617 130.69 130.69 000.00 100.00% 066.7 509 75.47% 098.62
JFKSYR 209 B6 27632 122.92 121.75 424.60 99.61% 101.4 361 75.50% 091.92
JFKROC 264 9E 28384 161.44 161.44 000.00 100.00% 073.0 453 85.82% 138.55
JFKROC 264 B6 44055 149.29 149.31 137.50 99.79% 100.2 532 82.65% 123.41

Keep in mind that B6 added a lot of ACK capacity last summer which had an adverse affect on the Q2 numbers, since they started the ACK season really early this past year. Q3 numbers looked a lot more in line with 2018.

HYA had about the same capacity and yield was about the same.

JFK/LGA/HPN-ACK definitely had lower yield than JFK-ACK from 2018. Down from 148 to 125 this past summer. So 2018 was 18% higher. This was due to 35% more flights. I think they probably made more money overall than 2018 on ACK even with the lower margins, but maybe they should not have stuck to basically the same capacity this summer of 2020. Or at least, I would advocate EWR-ACK instead of LGA-ACK, since LGA/JFK captures a lot of the same customers.

DCAACK did really well. Yield was up 12%. This probably explains why they are adding DCA-MVY this summer.

BOS-ACK was up 5% over a year ago, so they added a 3rd flight here.

JFK-MVY was down 9% over a year ago but remains the highest margined route in the system.

BOS-MVY was down a little more than that, but should still be a profitable route. Maybe it's competing too much with car+ferry option here.

The one I was surprised about was JFK-PWM. It's yield was only worse than MVY and HYA. There is no way this route gets canceled with that kind of number.

Looking at the remaining E90 routes out of JFK, BUF does really well in summer time. I assume there is a lot of leisure demand here in summer time to Niagara falls and maybe wine region of Canada. This year they cut a flight for the summer and the numbers looked even better. ROC does well enough in summer time. SYR/BTV remains as weak as previous years. BTV could be in danger if it's not around for political reasons.

Looking at this, I think BZN should do well as a summer destination. BNA should also do well in summer season. I'm sure B6 is looking at the leisure demand there as well as the business demand.

Any other summer destinations we can think of that B6 could try for NYC/Boston folks?


A couple of things about BTV:

1. Summer is a weaker quarter for B6 at BTV. Average fares for the past Q1 and Q4 were at least $10 higher. So, if BTV is making any profit it should at least be doing it year-round and not just in the summer like many of these routes. Likewise it can at least keep E190s doing something year-round.

2. 30% to 40% of the BTV traffic is connecting, so the city pair fare might not give an accurate picture of the profitability of the route.
 
Fex180
Posts: 285
Joined: Fri Apr 06, 2018 12:33 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 17, 2020 5:00 pm

mjgbtv wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Alright, this is a look at how well B6 did in the summer leisure market nearby. Since I included PWM here, I also added BUF/SYR/ROC/BTV as comparison.
CityPairDist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare% NS PerFlight# Flights LF Yield
JFKHYA 196 B6 09750 203.47 203.00 235.55 98.54% 100.0 129 75.58% 153.43
JFKACK 199 B6 39020 199.62 199.38 270.09 99.66% 100.0 610 63.97% 127.54
LGAACK 202 9E 03591 204.97 204.97 000.00 100.00% 049.9 087 82.74% 169.60
LGAACK 202 B6 09484 202.08 200.92 320.24 99.03% 100.0 164 57.83% 116.19
HPNACK 191 B6 08436 191.32 191.32 000.00 100.00% 100.0 132 63.91% 122.27
BOSACK 091 B6 19143 176.07 176.07 000.00 100.00% 100.0 263 72.79% 128.15
DCAACK 405 B6 05597 208.15 196.97 258.23 81.75% 100.0 076 73.64% 145.06
DCAACK 405 YX 13990 289.57 174.49 347.11 33.33% 075.9 215 85.73% 149.59
JFKMVY 173 B6 22649 223.99 223.81 265.19 99.56% 100.0 314 72.13% 161.43
BOSMVY 070 B6 11133 148.53 148.53 000.00 100.00% 100.0 159 70.02% 104.00
JFKPWM 273 9E 24819 177.44 177.44 000.00 100.00% 058.7 493 85.78% 152.20
JFKPWM 273 B6 38967 178.85 178.85 000.00 100.00% 100.7 482 80.26% 143.55
JFKBTV 266 9E 23300 129.98 129.98 000.00 100.00% 058.2 502 79.72% 103.63
JFKBTV 266 B6 42009 128.29 128.29 000.00 100.00% 101.0 542 76.73% 098.43
JFKBUF 301 9E 55565 153.42 153.40 154.05 97.85% 076.0 819 89.29% 136.97
JFKBUF 301 B6 83715 162.70 162.38 360.91 99.84% 101.5 937 88.06% 142.99
JFKSYR 209 9E 25617 130.69 130.69 000.00 100.00% 066.7 509 75.47% 098.62
JFKSYR 209 B6 27632 122.92 121.75 424.60 99.61% 101.4 361 75.50% 091.92
JFKROC 264 9E 28384 161.44 161.44 000.00 100.00% 073.0 453 85.82% 138.55
JFKROC 264 B6 44055 149.29 149.31 137.50 99.79% 100.2 532 82.65% 123.41

Keep in mind that B6 added a lot of ACK capacity last summer which had an adverse affect on the Q2 numbers, since they started the ACK season really early this past year. Q3 numbers looked a lot more in line with 2018.

HYA had about the same capacity and yield was about the same.

JFK/LGA/HPN-ACK definitely had lower yield than JFK-ACK from 2018. Down from 148 to 125 this past summer. So 2018 was 18% higher. This was due to 35% more flights. I think they probably made more money overall than 2018 on ACK even with the lower margins, but maybe they should not have stuck to basically the same capacity this summer of 2020. Or at least, I would advocate EWR-ACK instead of LGA-ACK, since LGA/JFK captures a lot of the same customers.

DCAACK did really well. Yield was up 12%. This probably explains why they are adding DCA-MVY this summer.

BOS-ACK was up 5% over a year ago, so they added a 3rd flight here.

JFK-MVY was down 9% over a year ago but remains the highest margined route in the system.

BOS-MVY was down a little more than that, but should still be a profitable route. Maybe it's competing too much with car+ferry option here.

The one I was surprised about was JFK-PWM. It's yield was only worse than MVY and HYA. There is no way this route gets canceled with that kind of number.

Looking at the remaining E90 routes out of JFK, BUF does really well in summer time. I assume there is a lot of leisure demand here in summer time to Niagara falls and maybe wine region of Canada. This year they cut a flight for the summer and the numbers looked even better. ROC does well enough in summer time. SYR/BTV remains as weak as previous years. BTV could be in danger if it's not around for political reasons.

Looking at this, I think BZN should do well as a summer destination. BNA should also do well in summer season. I'm sure B6 is looking at the leisure demand there as well as the business demand.

Any other summer destinations we can think of that B6 could try for NYC/Boston folks?


A couple of things about BTV:

1. Summer is a weaker quarter for B6 at BTV. Average fares for the past Q1 and Q4 were at least $10 higher. So, if BTV is making any profit it should at least be doing it year-round and not just in the summer like many of these routes. Likewise it can at least keep E190s doing something year-round.

2. 30% to 40% of the BTV traffic is connecting, so the city pair fare might not give an accurate picture of the profitability of the route.


I would still say BTV is fragile. If Frontier decides to make a big push for winter-seasonal Florida routes at BTV, (like they did at PWM) then that will make a huge dent in B6's connecting traffic. I suspect that Frontier is what pushed B6 out of year-round PWM service, the same could happen at BTV.
 
mjgbtv
Posts: 1029
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2008 2:18 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 17, 2020 5:27 pm

Fex180 wrote:
mjgbtv wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Alright, this is a look at how well B6 did in the summer leisure market nearby. Since I included PWM here, I also added BUF/SYR/ROC/BTV as comparison.
CityPairDist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare% NS PerFlight# Flights LF Yield
JFKHYA 196 B6 09750 203.47 203.00 235.55 98.54% 100.0 129 75.58% 153.43
JFKACK 199 B6 39020 199.62 199.38 270.09 99.66% 100.0 610 63.97% 127.54
LGAACK 202 9E 03591 204.97 204.97 000.00 100.00% 049.9 087 82.74% 169.60
LGAACK 202 B6 09484 202.08 200.92 320.24 99.03% 100.0 164 57.83% 116.19
HPNACK 191 B6 08436 191.32 191.32 000.00 100.00% 100.0 132 63.91% 122.27
BOSACK 091 B6 19143 176.07 176.07 000.00 100.00% 100.0 263 72.79% 128.15
DCAACK 405 B6 05597 208.15 196.97 258.23 81.75% 100.0 076 73.64% 145.06
DCAACK 405 YX 13990 289.57 174.49 347.11 33.33% 075.9 215 85.73% 149.59
JFKMVY 173 B6 22649 223.99 223.81 265.19 99.56% 100.0 314 72.13% 161.43
BOSMVY 070 B6 11133 148.53 148.53 000.00 100.00% 100.0 159 70.02% 104.00
JFKPWM 273 9E 24819 177.44 177.44 000.00 100.00% 058.7 493 85.78% 152.20
JFKPWM 273 B6 38967 178.85 178.85 000.00 100.00% 100.7 482 80.26% 143.55
JFKBTV 266 9E 23300 129.98 129.98 000.00 100.00% 058.2 502 79.72% 103.63
JFKBTV 266 B6 42009 128.29 128.29 000.00 100.00% 101.0 542 76.73% 098.43
JFKBUF 301 9E 55565 153.42 153.40 154.05 97.85% 076.0 819 89.29% 136.97
JFKBUF 301 B6 83715 162.70 162.38 360.91 99.84% 101.5 937 88.06% 142.99
JFKSYR 209 9E 25617 130.69 130.69 000.00 100.00% 066.7 509 75.47% 098.62
JFKSYR 209 B6 27632 122.92 121.75 424.60 99.61% 101.4 361 75.50% 091.92
JFKROC 264 9E 28384 161.44 161.44 000.00 100.00% 073.0 453 85.82% 138.55
JFKROC 264 B6 44055 149.29 149.31 137.50 99.79% 100.2 532 82.65% 123.41

Keep in mind that B6 added a lot of ACK capacity last summer which had an adverse affect on the Q2 numbers, since they started the ACK season really early this past year. Q3 numbers looked a lot more in line with 2018.

HYA had about the same capacity and yield was about the same.

JFK/LGA/HPN-ACK definitely had lower yield than JFK-ACK from 2018. Down from 148 to 125 this past summer. So 2018 was 18% higher. This was due to 35% more flights. I think they probably made more money overall than 2018 on ACK even with the lower margins, but maybe they should not have stuck to basically the same capacity this summer of 2020. Or at least, I would advocate EWR-ACK instead of LGA-ACK, since LGA/JFK captures a lot of the same customers.

DCAACK did really well. Yield was up 12%. This probably explains why they are adding DCA-MVY this summer.

BOS-ACK was up 5% over a year ago, so they added a 3rd flight here.

JFK-MVY was down 9% over a year ago but remains the highest margined route in the system.

BOS-MVY was down a little more than that, but should still be a profitable route. Maybe it's competing too much with car+ferry option here.

The one I was surprised about was JFK-PWM. It's yield was only worse than MVY and HYA. There is no way this route gets canceled with that kind of number.

Looking at the remaining E90 routes out of JFK, BUF does really well in summer time. I assume there is a lot of leisure demand here in summer time to Niagara falls and maybe wine region of Canada. This year they cut a flight for the summer and the numbers looked even better. ROC does well enough in summer time. SYR/BTV remains as weak as previous years. BTV could be in danger if it's not around for political reasons.

Looking at this, I think BZN should do well as a summer destination. BNA should also do well in summer season. I'm sure B6 is looking at the leisure demand there as well as the business demand.

Any other summer destinations we can think of that B6 could try for NYC/Boston folks?


A couple of things about BTV:

1. Summer is a weaker quarter for B6 at BTV. Average fares for the past Q1 and Q4 were at least $10 higher. So, if BTV is making any profit it should at least be doing it year-round and not just in the summer like many of these routes. Likewise it can at least keep E190s doing something year-round.

2. 30% to 40% of the BTV traffic is connecting, so the city pair fare might not give an accurate picture of the profitability of the route.


I would still say BTV is fragile. If Frontier decides to make a big push for winter-seasonal Florida routes at BTV, (like they did at PWM) then that will make a huge dent in B6's connecting traffic. I suspect that Frontier is what pushed B6 out of year-round PWM service, the same could happen at BTV.


I'd agree with fragile. Especially after the E190s are gone. However, I'm not sure if the demand to anywhere except MCO can support an A320 sized aircraft.
 
nine4nine
Posts: 560
Joined: Tue Mar 28, 2017 3:44 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 17, 2020 6:19 pm

KlimaBXsst wrote:
JoseSalazar wrote:
KlimaBXsst wrote:
If a JetBlue hub, focus city, or large catchment area such as OAK on the west coast, can’t support MINT, well maybe JetBlue should not be there in the first place.

How is MINT doing out of LGB?

MINT pax go to SFO in that area, which is where JB flies mint. OAK never had it.

Similarly, LAX has all the MINT flights in the LA basin...there are none at LGB/BUR/ONT, for now.


Oh, no MINT out of the LGB focus city. That is kind of odd?



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