Alright, changes are in for June this week. From what I can see, early June still looks awfully like May in terms of schedule, but second half of June seem to have expanded to the 30% schedule that they talked about.
Based on a Monday in late June, the number of flights I see from some major stations
BOS - 56
JFK - 57
FLL - 26
MCO - 16
EWR - 15
What stands out to me look at some of the schedule changes is how much DR/PR schedule have already been added back. For example the following from OAG thread.
B6 BOS-SJU JUN 3.0>2.1[3.6]
B6 FLL-SJU JUN 4>2.4
B6 JFK-SDQ JUN 5>3
B6 JFK-SJU JUN 5>2.8
B6 JFK-STI JUN 5>4
B6 EWR-SDQ JUN 1.5>0.5[1.0]
B6 EWR-SJU JUN 3.2>1.4[2.6]
B6 EWR-STI JUN 2>1.5[1.6]
remember looking at this changes that things are back heavy, so SJU is already seeing 2 to 4 on most days from JFK, EWR seeing 2x and BOS seeing 3x. SDQ is seeing 5x daily from JFK/EWR and STI is seeing 6x daily from JFK/EWR.
Also I'm seeing basically no legacy presence on any of these routes out of JFK/EWR. Which if they continue, will allow B6 to recover at NYC a lot sooner.
I'm also seeing a lot of mint flying returning. There is 9x daily to LAX from JFK/BOS/FLL and 5x daily to SFO from JFK/BOS/FLL.
the other thing that seems to be obvious is that MCO demand is way down. They are running about 20 to 25% of their pre-COVID schedule vs BOS/JFK/EWR which are running a little more than 30% of their pre-COVID schedule.
Interesting to see almost as much schedule out of EWR as MCO. It will be interesting to see how quickly they add back flights out of EWR. Based on what they've done recently, it seems like EWR could recover to its pre-COVID size of about 30x flights a day quicker than any other stations. It obviously helps that UA has cut what seems to be 90 to 95% of its EWR schedule. JetBlue is facing no pressure on EWR-PR/DR at the moment.
Another thing I think might benefit JetBlue is that competitors have been pretty aggressive cutting flights at JetBlue focus cities. Out of FLL, I'm seeing a bunch of monopolies due to NK/WN cuts. I'm not sure how long that will hold up, but it's probably also indicative of demand out of South Florida. Obvious, NYC has seen a lot of cuts, so JetBlue is probably running also as many flights out of EWR/JFK as DL by late June and more than UA. Again, I have no checked LGA, but B6 is unopposed on a lot of these JFK routes. And out of BOS, they are probably running 3 or 4 times the number of flights as AA/DL. If that continues to hold up, they are going to have a lot of monopolies.
At this pace, it wouldn't be too surprising if they are running close to half of their pre-COVID schedule out of JFK/EWR//BOS sometimes this fall. Again, this really depends also on what UA and DL do out of these stations, but could be a chance for B6 to build things back before their competition. Whether or not that is a good things is debatable.