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tphuang
Posts: 4841
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue May 12, 2020 8:56 pm

Brickell305 wrote:
It’s understandable for those who work at B6. It’s hard to face the reality that your company and ergo your job may not be secure. Also, there is the inner fanboy in most people in this thread who desire for their preferred airline to conquer all. I agree that reality hasn’t sunk in for most yet. Every airline is suffering. It’s apparent from their financials and their actions to date. Revenue will be down significantly for a while. There simply won’t be any money for all the expansion people seem to think will take place.


You do realize that's not what people are saying here right? Did you miss the part where I said FLL/MCO/SJU won't be back to pre-COVID size for another 3 or 4 years?

This is about remaking your network to take advantage of a rare opening in NYC and possibly BOS. I don't see how bringing back JFK/LGA sooner than other station is any different than DL bringing back its core hubs sooner than coastal hubs or AA bringing back DFW/CLT sooner than everything else. Or maybe you just don't like the sound of B6 taking AA slots.
 
FlyingElvii
Posts: 682
Joined: Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:53 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue May 12, 2020 9:16 pm

airportugal310 wrote:
FlyingElvii wrote:
STT757 wrote:
I think some of us are getting ahead of ourselves here. What makes people think that if there's a recovery only JetBlue will be in a position to do anything? They, like all the other airlines, are going to have less planes, less people and less money when this pandemic is over.


I don't think that people understand what is really happening yet, or just refusing to acknowledge it.

Without a successful vaccine, It is going to be a while be a while before we see even 1980 TRAFFIC LEVELS., folks. Especially in International.
The days of just getting on to a jet, and flying to a far off land for an adventure vacation are OVER.


Says you...you could ask 10 different people the same question, and get 10 different opinions, frankly. Some choose to be more optimistic than others who watch too much mainstream news, and that's fine


You know what Nietzsche said about hope...
You have to plan for reality, not optimism.
 
BlueBaller
Posts: 62
Joined: Sun Sep 01, 2019 8:07 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue May 12, 2020 11:23 pm

FlyingElvii wrote:
You know what Nietzsche said about hope...
You have to plan for reality, not optimism.


There's a whole entire department by the name of Route Planning that handles that. And then there's A.net.
 
trueblew
Posts: 116
Joined: Thu Nov 15, 2018 10:16 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue May 12, 2020 11:26 pm

FlyingElvii wrote:
STT757 wrote:
I think some of us are getting ahead of ourselves here. What makes people think that if there's a recovery only JetBlue will be in a position to do anything? They, like all the other airlines, are going to have less planes, less people and less money when this pandemic is over.


I don't think that people understand what is really happening yet, or just refusing to acknowledge it.

Without a successful vaccine, It is going to be a while be a while before we see even 1980 TRAFFIC LEVELS., folks. Especially in International.
The days of just getting on to a jet, and flying to a far off land for an adventure vacation are OVER.


I've been on three very full flights the past two weeks, and no one seemed overly concerned in the slightest. I think those who are at heightened risk or worrywarts who watch too much news are already staying at home and will continue to do so for the time being. The rest of us will live our lives and that means getting on airplanes.
 
Abeam79
Posts: 325
Joined: Thu Jul 03, 2014 3:16 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed May 13, 2020 12:43 am

FlyingElvii wrote:
airportugal310 wrote:
FlyingElvii wrote:

I don't think that people understand what is really happening yet, or just refusing to acknowledge it.

Without a successful vaccine, It is going to be a while be a while before we see even 1980 TRAFFIC LEVELS., folks. Especially in International.
The days of just getting on to a jet, and flying to a far off land for an adventure vacation are OVER.


Says you...you could ask 10 different people the same question, and get 10 different opinions, frankly. Some choose to be more optimistic than others who watch too much mainstream news, and that's fine


You know what Nietzsche said about hope...
You have to plan for reality, not optimism.


Thats what many said after 9/11...flying will recover in some fashion as close to possible as it was before the virus in a few years when we have herd immunity/vaccine. Stop being to so over dramatic..then again, this is Anet
 
Brickell305
Posts: 935
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed May 13, 2020 2:45 am

tphuang wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:
It’s understandable for those who work at B6. It’s hard to face the reality that your company and ergo your job may not be secure. Also, there is the inner fanboy in most people in this thread who desire for their preferred airline to conquer all. I agree that reality hasn’t sunk in for most yet. Every airline is suffering. It’s apparent from their financials and their actions to date. Revenue will be down significantly for a while. There simply won’t be any money for all the expansion people seem to think will take place.


You do realize that's not what people are saying here right? Did you miss the part where I said FLL/MCO/SJU won't be back to pre-COVID size for another 3 or 4 years?

This is about remaking your network to take advantage of a rare opening in NYC and possibly BOS. I don't see how bringing back JFK/LGA sooner than other station is any different than DL bringing back its core hubs sooner than coastal hubs or AA bringing back DFW/CLT sooner than everything else. Or maybe you just don't like the sound of B6 taking AA slots.

I neither work for AA nor live in New York. I couldn’t possibly care less about their slots at JFK. I just think there is a pervasive lack of realism in this and other threads.
 
isp2
Posts: 54
Joined: Wed Sep 01, 2010 6:28 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed May 13, 2020 4:06 am

tphuang wrote:

LAX - I see AA/UA and possibly AS losing gates here. AA/UA lose gate due to their financial difficulties and AS due to concentrating in PNW/AK. F9 is gone and G4/SY likely to be reduced even more. If B6 stays in T5, it will most likely be gaining gates from F9/G4/SY/HA reducing/moving to other terminals. NK may also find a different terminal that will give it access to more gate space or it could get 1 or more that AA might give up. I think LAX won’t be gate constrained for a few years. Short term, B6 is likely to move out of LGB and into LAX if it can get 5 gates in total (like rumored before this started). It will probably be looking for more than that in medium to long term. LAX is where they want to be if they want to have a strategy of more than just East Coast.



Is there a reason that you say F9 "is gone" from LAX? I didn't see any announcement from F9 they were pulling out of LAX. Hell, I don't think anyone knows whats going on at F9 since they are the only private major. What I have seen from daily industry stats though is that they have run more flights than B6 and NK everyday the past few weeks and have LF's in the 60% range - not to mention they are backed by billions at Indigo - and Biffle has been on more news shows than every other airline CEO combined.

I've been on this board for 20 years, and this thread is bar-none, the most laughable thing I have ever read. Everyone appears to know who is going out of business, who is merging, how many flights B6 will be flying from certain airports in 2025. Lol. You really had me at HPN-LAS/LAX - one of the funniest things I've read in years.

People really seem to hate AA / F9 / NK... I wouldn't be surprised to see AA / DL / WN / F9 / NK come out of a post-COVID world as the big winners when this is over. In the meantime, keep dreaming about B6 growth in BOS/EWR/JFK/LAX/LGA... truly comical. I don't know what to make of AS, but B6 and UA are in significant trouble.
 
CaptainObvious1
Posts: 41
Joined: Sat Apr 11, 2020 11:22 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed May 13, 2020 4:26 am

Abeam79 wrote:
FlyingElvii wrote:
airportugal310 wrote:

Says you...you could ask 10 different people the same question, and get 10 different opinions, frankly. Some choose to be more optimistic than others who watch too much mainstream news, and that's fine


You know what Nietzsche said about hope...
You have to plan for reality, not optimism.


Thats what many said after 9/11...flying will recover in some fashion as close to possible as it was before the virus in a few years when we have herd immunity/vaccine. Stop being to so over dramatic..then again, this is Anet


You long on the airline stocks?
 
JoseSalazar
Posts: 171
Joined: Mon Oct 14, 2019 3:18 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed May 13, 2020 5:13 am

isp2 wrote:
tphuang wrote:

LAX - I see AA/UA and possibly AS losing gates here. AA/UA lose gate due to their financial difficulties and AS due to concentrating in PNW/AK. F9 is gone and G4/SY likely to be reduced even more. If B6 stays in T5, it will most likely be gaining gates from F9/G4/SY/HA reducing/moving to other terminals. NK may also find a different terminal that will give it access to more gate space or it could get 1 or more that AA might give up. I think LAX won’t be gate constrained for a few years. Short term, B6 is likely to move out of LGB and into LAX if it can get 5 gates in total (like rumored before this started). It will probably be looking for more than that in medium to long term. LAX is where they want to be if they want to have a strategy of more than just East Coast.



Is there a reason that you say F9 "is gone" from LAX? I didn't see any announcement from F9 they were pulling out of LAX. Hell, I don't think anyone knows whats going on at F9 since they are the only private major. What I have seen from daily industry stats though is that they have run more flights than B6 and NK everyday the past few weeks and have LF's in the 60% range - not to mention they are backed by billions at Indigo - and Biffle has been on more news shows than every other airline CEO combined.

I've been on this board for 20 years, and this thread is bar-none, the most laughable thing I have ever read. Everyone appears to know who is going out of business, who is merging, how many flights B6 will be flying from certain airports in 2025. Lol. You really had me at HPN-LAS/LAX - one of the funniest things I've read in years.

People really seem to hate AA / F9 / NK... I wouldn't be surprised to see AA / DL / WN / F9 / NK come out of a post-COVID world as the big winners when this is over. In the meantime, keep dreaming about B6 growth in BOS/EWR/JFK/LAX/LGA... truly comical. I don't know what to make of AS, but B6 and UA are in significant trouble.


Anything (data, balance sheet commentary, etc) to back up the B6 is in trouble comment?
 
tphuang
Posts: 4841
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed May 13, 2020 2:47 pm

Brickell305 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
You do realize that's not what people are saying here right? Did you miss the part where I said FLL/MCO/SJU won't be back to pre-COVID size for another 3 or 4 years?

This is about remaking your network to take advantage of a rare opening in NYC and possibly BOS. I don't see how bringing back JFK/LGA sooner than other station is any different than DL bringing back its core hubs sooner than coastal hubs or AA bringing back DFW/CLT sooner than everything else. Or maybe you just don't like the sound of B6 taking AA slots.

I neither work for AA nor live in New York. I couldn’t possibly care less about their slots at JFK. I just think there is a pervasive lack of realism in this and other threads.


So in terms of bring back capacity, you think B6 should just bring everything back evenly then or give up in NYC? I'm not understanding why adopting a strategy of bringing back your strongest/most profitable focus city is so hard to accept. Isn't that what every airline is doing? Isn't AA bringing back DFW/CLT first or DL with ATL? This is a rate opportunity where B6 can take advantage of slots becoming available in its home base, why would it not focus on that ahead of other stations?


isp2 wrote:
Is there a reason that you say F9 "is gone" from LAX? I didn't see any announcement from F9 they were pulling out of LAX. Hell, I don't think anyone knows whats going on at F9 since they are the only private major. What I have seen from daily industry stats though is that they have run more flights than B6 and NK everyday the past few weeks and have LF's in the 60% range - not to mention they are backed by billions at Indigo - and Biffle has been on more news shows than every other airline CEO combined.

I've been on this board for 20 years, and this thread is bar-none, the most laughable thing I have ever read. Everyone appears to know who is going out of business, who is merging, how many flights B6 will be flying from certain airports in 2025. Lol. You really had me at HPN-LAS/LAX - one of the funniest things I've read in years.

People really seem to hate AA / F9 / NK... I wouldn't be surprised to see AA / DL / WN / F9 / NK come out of a post-COVID world as the big winners when this is over. In the meantime, keep dreaming about B6 growth in BOS/EWR/JFK/LAX/LGA... truly comical. I don't know what to make of AS, but B6 and UA are in significant trouble.


Recent OAG thread showed that F9 has cut their flights at LAX/ONT. Whether they will start flying again, we will see.

As for the rest of it, the earnings reports are out and B6 has one of the healthiest debt load and cash position vs burn rate (WN, AS and G4 are the other ones). AA has far and away the worst. If you have seen so many daily industry stats, maybe looking through earnings reports will help.
 
Brickell305
Posts: 935
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed May 13, 2020 5:14 pm

tphuang wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
You do realize that's not what people are saying here right? Did you miss the part where I said FLL/MCO/SJU won't be back to pre-COVID size for another 3 or 4 years?

This is about remaking your network to take advantage of a rare opening in NYC and possibly BOS. I don't see how bringing back JFK/LGA sooner than other station is any different than DL bringing back its core hubs sooner than coastal hubs or AA bringing back DFW/CLT sooner than everything else. Or maybe you just don't like the sound of B6 taking AA slots.

I neither work for AA nor live in New York. I couldn’t possibly care less about their slots at JFK. I just think there is a pervasive lack of realism in this and other threads.


So in terms of bring back capacity, you think B6 should just bring everything back evenly then or give up in NYC? I'm not understanding why adopting a strategy of bringing back your strongest/most profitable focus city is so hard to accept. Isn't that what every airline is doing? Isn't AA bringing back DFW/CLT first or DL with ATL? This is a rate opportunity where B6 can take advantage of slots becoming available in its home base, why would it not focus on that ahead of other stations?


isp2 wrote:
Is there a reason that you say F9 "is gone" from LAX? I didn't see any announcement from F9 they were pulling out of LAX. Hell, I don't think anyone knows whats going on at F9 since they are the only private major. What I have seen from daily industry stats though is that they have run more flights than B6 and NK everyday the past few weeks and have LF's in the 60% range - not to mention they are backed by billions at Indigo - and Biffle has been on more news shows than every other airline CEO combined.

I've been on this board for 20 years, and this thread is bar-none, the most laughable thing I have ever read. Everyone appears to know who is going out of business, who is merging, how many flights B6 will be flying from certain airports in 2025. Lol. You really had me at HPN-LAS/LAX - one of the funniest things I've read in years.

People really seem to hate AA / F9 / NK... I wouldn't be surprised to see AA / DL / WN / F9 / NK come out of a post-COVID world as the big winners when this is over. In the meantime, keep dreaming about B6 growth in BOS/EWR/JFK/LAX/LGA... truly comical. I don't know what to make of AS, but B6 and UA are in significant trouble.


Recent OAG thread showed that F9 has cut their flights at LAX/ONT. Whether they will start flying again, we will see.

As for the rest of it, the earnings reports are out and B6 has one of the healthiest debt load and cash position vs burn rate (WN, AS and G4 are the other ones). AA has far and away the worst. If you have seen so many daily industry stats, maybe looking through earnings reports will help.

No one is saying that B6 should not focus on its strengths in NYC and BOS. What's being spoken about in this thread though is an expansion in those places above pre-COVID levels which IMO is unrealistic.
 
trueblew
Posts: 116
Joined: Thu Nov 15, 2018 10:16 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed May 13, 2020 5:40 pm

Brickell305 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:
I neither work for AA nor live in New York. I couldn’t possibly care less about their slots at JFK. I just think there is a pervasive lack of realism in this and other threads.


So in terms of bring back capacity, you think B6 should just bring everything back evenly then or give up in NYC? I'm not understanding why adopting a strategy of bringing back your strongest/most profitable focus city is so hard to accept. Isn't that what every airline is doing? Isn't AA bringing back DFW/CLT first or DL with ATL? This is a rate opportunity where B6 can take advantage of slots becoming available in its home base, why would it not focus on that ahead of other stations?


isp2 wrote:
Is there a reason that you say F9 "is gone" from LAX? I didn't see any announcement from F9 they were pulling out of LAX. Hell, I don't think anyone knows whats going on at F9 since they are the only private major. What I have seen from daily industry stats though is that they have run more flights than B6 and NK everyday the past few weeks and have LF's in the 60% range - not to mention they are backed by billions at Indigo - and Biffle has been on more news shows than every other airline CEO combined.

I've been on this board for 20 years, and this thread is bar-none, the most laughable thing I have ever read. Everyone appears to know who is going out of business, who is merging, how many flights B6 will be flying from certain airports in 2025. Lol. You really had me at HPN-LAS/LAX - one of the funniest things I've read in years.

People really seem to hate AA / F9 / NK... I wouldn't be surprised to see AA / DL / WN / F9 / NK come out of a post-COVID world as the big winners when this is over. In the meantime, keep dreaming about B6 growth in BOS/EWR/JFK/LAX/LGA... truly comical. I don't know what to make of AS, but B6 and UA are in significant trouble.


Recent OAG thread showed that F9 has cut their flights at LAX/ONT. Whether they will start flying again, we will see.

As for the rest of it, the earnings reports are out and B6 has one of the healthiest debt load and cash position vs burn rate (WN, AS and G4 are the other ones). AA has far and away the worst. If you have seen so many daily industry stats, maybe looking through earnings reports will help.

No one is saying that B6 should not focus on its strengths in NYC and BOS. What's being spoken about in this thread though is an expansion in those places above pre-COVID levels which IMO is unrealistic.


Can you not imagine a scenario where B6 competitors in NYC pull back enough that, while the market is smaller than pre-Covid, B6 has a greater presence than before? AA is all but throwing in the towel at JFK, opportunities will arise at LGA and EWR. It's not that far fetched.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed May 13, 2020 7:17 pm

Brickell305 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:
I neither work for AA nor live in New York. I couldn’t possibly care less about their slots at JFK. I just think there is a pervasive lack of realism in this and other threads.


So in terms of bring back capacity, you think B6 should just bring everything back evenly then or give up in NYC? I'm not understanding why adopting a strategy of bringing back your strongest/most profitable focus city is so hard to accept. Isn't that what every airline is doing? Isn't AA bringing back DFW/CLT first or DL with ATL? This is a rate opportunity where B6 can take advantage of slots becoming available in its home base, why would it not focus on that ahead of other stations?

No one is saying that B6 should not focus on its strengths in NYC and BOS. What's being spoken about in this thread though is an expansion in those places above pre-COVID levels which IMO is unrealistic.


Well at some point, airlines will recover to pre-COVID level. If you expect to be back at pre-COVID capacities by late 2022 or early 2023 for a LCC (so basically 2 to 3 year recovery given no widbody presence), then you can certainly bring certain stations back to pre-COVID level sooner (NYC/BOS) while taking time on the other ones (FLL/MCO/SJU) or giving up on them(LGB).

And since they had done a lot of upgauging at JFK pre-COVID, they can downgauge to use up more slots sooner. I expect them to run fewer all-core A321s and more A320s/A220s/E90s out of JFK as they are trying to claim as many slots as possible. Instead of flying 6 A321s + 1 A320 to SDQ, they can do 7 A320s to SDQ to maintain the same number of flights while decreasing capacity by 1/4. They can do 10x FLL on A320s instead of 7x on A321s. They can also bring back some of the short haul frequencies on E90 that they had cut in recent years to claim more slots. They can easily do 9x BOS, 7x BUF, 4x ORD/RDU in summer time. You increase the number of flights first to utilize whatever slots become available and then upgauge later once JFK becomes constrained again. If slot waivers go away in first half of next year, JetBlue better be prepared to add back all those flights by the second half.

And with a significantly reduced AA presence, DL/B6 can recover to pre-COVID capacity long before demand recovers to pre-COVID level. So the key is needing to claim these slots before DL or other carriers do. I fully expect DL to consolidate their TATL operation at JFK and abandon the BOS buildup, so I don't think it will be long before DL starts to claim available slots.
 
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ChrisNH38
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu May 14, 2020 11:21 am

“Never let a crisis go to waste.” A horrible sentiment, but it is one that JetBlue will likely heed as it launches flights from Boston to somewhere in London in 2021. The number of seats in the market even by late 2021 won’t be what they were in 2019, and there is possible reason to believe that demand will outstrip supply by the time JetBlue enters. Unless forced to do so because of slots, I don’t see BA fielding 4x daily again, and who knows about Virgin. DL seems content with a single 764 and MAYBE a 757 to LGW.
https://my.flightradar24.com/ChrisNH
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat May 16, 2020 4:21 pm

JetBlue joining all the other airlines in extending mosaic status by a year + lowering threshold for this year. On top of this, they also added a gifting of one mosaic membership that has been quite well received as one might expect.
https://paxex.aero/2020/05/jetblue-mosa ... extension/

Also, they introduced a double point promotion to try to get people to buy tickets.

Looks like they expect, similar to other carriers, that the demand will still be weak next year, so adding more mosaic members may attract some more loyalty from customers. Also, I wonder if this is going to lead an additional mosaic tier. Seems like the existing one is going to cheapen overtime. And with Europe coming, it should be easier than ever to reach the current mosaic levels.

Other thing I noticed is that AC looks to really be hurting (even more than US carriers) from COVID. It makes me wonder about 2 things:
1) whether or not that will make it easier for B6 to enter Canada in the next few years.
2) whether or not AC will be willing to give up a couple of LGA slots.

Going to be interesting to see how long the slot waivers last.
 
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ChrisNH38
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat May 16, 2020 4:57 pm

The Canadian government will throw up any obstacle it can to prevent JetBlue from taking advantage of a massively weakened AC.
https://my.flightradar24.com/ChrisNH
 
MIflyer12
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat May 16, 2020 5:35 pm

Which is none, under an Open Skies agreement. B6 is a competitor for Air Canada like a squirrel fights a lion.
 
N757ST
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat May 16, 2020 6:53 pm

I can’t speak to the validity of this, but apparently the bind market is pretty confident in jetblue.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/boeing ... 1589294871
 
tphuang
Posts: 4841
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun May 17, 2020 4:30 pm

Alright, changes are in for June this week. From what I can see, early June still looks awfully like May in terms of schedule, but second half of June seem to have expanded to the 30% schedule that they talked about.

Based on a Monday in late June, the number of flights I see from some major stations
BOS - 56
JFK - 57
FLL - 26
MCO - 16
EWR - 15

What stands out to me look at some of the schedule changes is how much DR/PR schedule have already been added back. For example the following from OAG thread.
B6 BOS-SJU JUN 3.0>2.1[3.6]
B6 FLL-SJU JUN 4>2.4[6]
B6 JFK-SDQ JUN 5>3[6]
B6 JFK-SJU JUN 5>2.8[6]
B6 JFK-STI JUN 5>4[7]
B6 EWR-SDQ JUN 1.5>0.5[1.0]
B6 EWR-SJU JUN 3.2>1.4[2.6]
B6 EWR-STI JUN 2>1.5[1.6]

remember looking at this changes that things are back heavy, so SJU is already seeing 2 to 4 on most days from JFK, EWR seeing 2x and BOS seeing 3x. SDQ is seeing 5x daily from JFK/EWR and STI is seeing 6x daily from JFK/EWR.

Also I'm seeing basically no legacy presence on any of these routes out of JFK/EWR. Which if they continue, will allow B6 to recover at NYC a lot sooner.

I'm also seeing a lot of mint flying returning. There is 9x daily to LAX from JFK/BOS/FLL and 5x daily to SFO from JFK/BOS/FLL.

the other thing that seems to be obvious is that MCO demand is way down. They are running about 20 to 25% of their pre-COVID schedule vs BOS/JFK/EWR which are running a little more than 30% of their pre-COVID schedule.

Interesting to see almost as much schedule out of EWR as MCO. It will be interesting to see how quickly they add back flights out of EWR. Based on what they've done recently, it seems like EWR could recover to its pre-COVID size of about 30x flights a day quicker than any other stations. It obviously helps that UA has cut what seems to be 90 to 95% of its EWR schedule. JetBlue is facing no pressure on EWR-PR/DR at the moment.

Another thing I think might benefit JetBlue is that competitors have been pretty aggressive cutting flights at JetBlue focus cities. Out of FLL, I'm seeing a bunch of monopolies due to NK/WN cuts. I'm not sure how long that will hold up, but it's probably also indicative of demand out of South Florida. Obvious, NYC has seen a lot of cuts, so JetBlue is probably running also as many flights out of EWR/JFK as DL by late June and more than UA. Again, I have no checked LGA, but B6 is unopposed on a lot of these JFK routes. And out of BOS, they are probably running 3 or 4 times the number of flights as AA/DL. If that continues to hold up, they are going to have a lot of monopolies.

At this pace, it wouldn't be too surprising if they are running close to half of their pre-COVID schedule out of JFK/EWR//BOS sometimes this fall. Again, this really depends also on what UA and DL do out of these stations, but could be a chance for B6 to build things back before their competition. Whether or not that is a good things is debatable.
 
cpl22586
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon May 18, 2020 9:11 am

Also looking at a Monday in late June for JFK looks like UVF, PAP, PUJ, MBJ, NAS, AUA, POP, CUN, SXM, SDQ, STI will be returning but have a feeling will be subject to change depending on current conditions.
 
WOengn
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon May 18, 2020 10:23 am

Take it for what it's worth, but I do facilities engineering for some US airlines (mostly AA, B6, DL, UA, WN, and Breeze).

Almost all but the most critical projects have been on hold, but JetBlue is the first (under our contracts) to lift their hold on non-critical items such as hold rooms, employee spaces, tool areas, energy management, etc.

I don't know if that's necessarily good, but it's a tiny step towards more normalcy.
 
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jfklganyc
Posts: 5864
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon May 18, 2020 2:09 pm

I’m telling you what they’re doing...
They are using their resources to make a run at Kennedy LaGuardia and Newark

They will continue to do this and prioritize that over all other hubs

And as I said even in the depths of this in April...DR and PR is king.

If Jetblue can survive, they are going to be an excellent place in New York City. Excellent.

They will also be in an excellent place in Boston
 
CobaltScar
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon May 18, 2020 2:14 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
I’m telling you what they’re doing...
They are using their resources to make a run at Kennedy LaGuardia and Newark

They will continue to do this and prioritize that over all other hubs

And as I said even in the depths of this in April...DR and PR is king.

If Jetblue can survive, they are going to be an excellent place in New York City. Excellent.

They will also be in an excellent place in Boston


Ok but what about the big new southern terminal at MCO they are supposed to move in late next year? I'm sure they got commitments to fill there or are they going to let all the gate space go to competitors and be back to square one at MCO?
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon May 18, 2020 2:31 pm

What really would be B6’s plan for EWR I’m the future? Get to 50 flights by 2025?
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon May 18, 2020 2:45 pm

I think NY/NJ area air travel will be less affected by a second wave than April. A lot of people have already got it as evidence in those antibody tests. People know a lot of people that have gotten them and most cases have been mild (especially for under 60 no pre-existing condition group). People are learning how to live with it as time goes on. Corporate demand will still be down since large companies don't want half of their office infected from non-essential air travel, but JetBlue has always been more dependent on VFR and yuppie leisure than legacy airlines.

If DL/UA continues to take their time adding back capacity, B6 is going to able to fill that void.

CobaltScar wrote:

Ok but what about the big new southern terminal at MCO they are supposed to move in late next year? I'm sure they got commitments to fill there or are they going to let all the gate space go to competitors and be back to square one at MCO?


There is a giant opening in NY (largest one in a long time) and you are worried about MCO?

cpl22586 wrote:
Also looking at a Monday in late June for JFK looks like UVF, PAP, PUJ, MBJ, NAS, AUA, POP, CUN, SXM, SDQ, STI will be returning but have a feeling will be subject to change depending on current conditions.

AUA did not show up for me, so I didn't count it. I think DR stuff is coming back and same with CUN. Not sure about the other ones.
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon May 18, 2020 3:38 pm

CobaltScar wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:
I’m telling you what they’re doing...
They are using their resources to make a run at Kennedy LaGuardia and Newark

They will continue to do this and prioritize that over all other hubs

And as I said even in the depths of this in April...DR and PR is king.

If Jetblue can survive, they are going to be an excellent place in New York City. Excellent.

They will also be in an excellent place in Boston


Ok but what about the big new southern terminal at MCO they are supposed to move in late next year? I'm sure they got commitments to fill there or are they going to let all the gate space go to competitors and be back to square one at MCO?


There is always space at MCO and always will be.

Runway, ramp and terminal space aplenty.

That is why B6 growth there always gets thrown off in favor of growth in constrained airports like NY BOS and Lauderdale
 
wnflyguy
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon May 18, 2020 8:59 pm

Is it true JetBlue is officially chopping west coast markets LGB,ONT,SJC,ABQ,PDX,PSP and RNO on October 1 once Cares act stipulations run out?

Flyguy
my post are my opinion only and not those of southwest airlines and or airtran airlines.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon May 18, 2020 9:15 pm

wnflyguy wrote:
Is it true JetBlue is officially chopping west coast markets LGB,ONT,SJC,ABQ,PDX,PSP and RNO on October 1 once Cares act stipulations run out?

Flyguy

I can't imagine all these markets are gone. Although, I think it would make sense to chop ABQ, PSP and RNO. They did well enough at ONT before COVID that I see them returning at some point, even if not Oct 1. It makes no sense for them to cut SJC, when BOS-SJC performed really well. I don't think they are leaving LGB completely just yet, but chopping down to 5 or less flights is likely.

There is no reason for them to leave PDX. Maybe they can suspend it until next spring if they think fall and winter demand is too low.
 
nine4nine
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Mon May 18, 2020 10:15 pm

wnflyguy wrote:
Is it true JetBlue is officially chopping west coast markets LGB,ONT,SJC,ABQ,PDX,PSP and RNO on October 1 once Cares act stipulations run out?

Flyguy



Let’s hope so. LGB brings nothing to the table. Unfriendly community, unfriendly business environment, no FIS, and trash yields. They are better off beefing up LAX as there will be a surplus of gates and can run a nice handful of international flights as well as having high yielding BUR as the secondary feeder to the LA basin.
717, 727-100, 727-200, 732, 733, 734, 735, 73G, 738, 739, 742, 748, 752, 753, 762, 763, 772, 77W, 787-10, DC9, MD80/88/90, DC10, 319, 220-300, 320, 321, 321n, 332, 333, CS100, CRJ200, Q400, E175, E190, ERJ145, EMB120
 
BlueBaller
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue May 19, 2020 5:12 pm

https://seekingalpha.com/article/434865 ... eighs-risk

Seems to echo a lot of the recent sentiment discussed here lately. While still very much in survival mode, if B6 can continue to make smart financial decisions and reinvest in itself in as pragmatic a manner possible, the restart could quite possibly surprise even the most conservative skeptics out there.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue May 19, 2020 10:06 pm

Looks like JetBlue is going to be taking the first A220 assembled at Mobile.

Also from today's Wolfe Research conference, AA said that international and corporate traffic will be coming back much slower. Leisure and "unmanaged business travel" (businesses that don't have a corp contract) are coming back sooner. All of this favours JetBlue getting demand coming back sooner than legacy airlines.

I'm hoping that JetBlue will be talking on this conference also on the topic of how demand is coming back and their current cash situation. Be curious what kind of capacity level they are thinking for July/August.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Tue May 19, 2020 10:14 pm

tphuang wrote:
Looks like JetBlue is going to be taking the first A220 assembled at Mobile.

Also from today's Wolfe Research conference, AA said that international and corporate traffic will be coming back much slower. Leisure and "unmanaged business travel" (businesses that don't have a corp contract) are coming back sooner. All of this favours JetBlue getting demand coming back sooner than legacy airlines.

I'm hoping that JetBlue will be talking on this conference also on the topic of how demand is coming back and their current cash situation. Be curious what kind of capacity level they are thinking for July/August.


They were the first airline to present
https://www.meetmax.com/upload/event_59 ... Agenda.pdf
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed May 20, 2020 1:10 am

Midwestindy wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Looks like JetBlue is going to be taking the first A220 assembled at Mobile.

Also from today's Wolfe Research conference, AA said that international and corporate traffic will be coming back much slower. Leisure and "unmanaged business travel" (businesses that don't have a corp contract) are coming back sooner. All of this favours JetBlue getting demand coming back sooner than legacy airlines.

I'm hoping that JetBlue will be talking on this conference also on the topic of how demand is coming back and their current cash situation. Be curious what kind of capacity level they are thinking for July/August.


They were the first airline to present
https://www.meetmax.com/upload/event_59 ... Agenda.pdf


Thanks a lot. No wonder I didn't see any tweet on this. Not much interesting stuff coming out.
Just a few things to note again:
- CFO looks at 10 million a day cash burn as the bottom line in a no revenue environment. So I guess if they get more booking coming in, the cash burn will go below that.
- Said slot situation for TATL is looking a whole lot better. They are waiting on the CMA decision on LHR slots. They are not willing to pay a lot of money for slots.
- They look at coming out of this like back in 2009 to 2011. He said they got into mint transcon and PR opportunity as things that opened up from 2008 financial crisis.
- Kept talking about how their cost control and conservative planning has allowed to come into this in a really strong position.
- They are still making PDPs and other payments on the aircraft they are taking. Just in general, they seem to be very confident in their cash position vs what you see with UA.
- Would get nervous if cash position falls below 700 to 800 million range.
 
jco613
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wed May 20, 2020 4:36 am

Wow how things change in a week. I’m seeing FLL and JFK to ATL back in mid June. Looks like BOS-BNA too. Looks like I’m seeing 25 FLL flights for June 15 including MBJ NAS JAX RDU and even POS/SXM (sat only). Improvement
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu May 21, 2020 4:37 pm

From https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2 ... ttom-video
RH interviewed on bloomberg.
Saying 70 to 75% cut in June vs 85 to 90% cut in May. (again, I see closer to 70% down for late June and 80% down in early June)
- a lot of essential worker flying still
- a lot of VFR, flying home, some small interest in vacation travelers.
- trying to see the protocols from Caribbean countries in opening back up
- business coming back slowly
- Thinks people will get confused by quarantine rules, so will stay close to home for their travel.
- TATL will happen later 2021 (rather than late 2021, so maybe sooner than Q4) and see demand coming back next year. So maybe they will try next summer.
- see bright path into London airports
- will be smaller and trying to not do any furlough
- 14k out of 23k staff have taken some form of voluntary time off
- thinks mint will bounce back strongly
- leisure market that's once per day will be sub-daily. Doesn't see withdrawing from any city.

I don't know if I believe the last part in not leaving any airport. I think there is a few that they don't need to stay in. As for furlough, I hope it doesn't happen. I don't know enough about labor contracts to know if the cost of furlough at JetBlue is lower than in legacy airlines (who have been making decisions based on demand next Q3 rather than end of this year). If cost of furlough at JetBlue is close to legacies, then they might not furlough if they expect to be 90% of their pre-COVID size by next summer. And so much of what they do is dependent on their legacy competitors. if they continue their current trend of bringing back NYC/BOS really slowly, that might give JetBlue more room at some of these routes to bring back capacity more quickly. It would seem to me that smaller airlines like JetBlue that depend so much on 2 or 3 population centers would have a harder time to plan their future size in this type of recovery.
 
flyby519
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Joined: Tue Jul 24, 2007 3:31 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu May 21, 2020 4:53 pm

tphuang wrote:
From https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2 ... ttom-video
RH interviewed on bloomberg.
Saying 70 to 75% cut in June vs 85 to 90% cut in May. (again, I see closer to 70% down for late June and 80% down in early June)
- a lot of essential worker flying still
- a lot of VFR, flying home, some small interest in vacation travelers.
- trying to see the protocols from Caribbean countries in opening back up
- business coming back slowly
- Thinks people will get confused by quarantine rules, so will stay close to home for their travel.
- TATL will happen later 2021 (rather than late 2021, so maybe sooner than Q4) and see demand coming back next year. So maybe they will try next summer.
- see bright path into London airports
- will be smaller and trying to not do any furlough
- 14k out of 23k staff have taken some form of voluntary time off
- thinks mint will bounce back strongly
- leisure market that's once per day will be sub-daily. Doesn't see withdrawing from any city.

I don't know if I believe the last part in not leaving any airport. I think there is a few that they don't need to stay in. As for furlough, I hope it doesn't happen. I don't know enough about labor contracts to know if the cost of furlough at JetBlue is lower than in legacy airlines (who have been making decisions based on demand next Q3 rather than end of this year). If cost of furlough at JetBlue is close to legacies, then they might not furlough if they expect to be 90% of their pre-COVID size by next summer. And so much of what they do is dependent on their legacy competitors. if they continue their current trend of bringing back NYC/BOS really slowly, that might give JetBlue more room at some of these routes to bring back capacity more quickly. It would seem to me that smaller airlines like JetBlue that depend so much on 2 or 3 population centers would have a harder time to plan their future size in this type of recovery.


Furlough costs will naturally be much smaller at a carrier like B6 vs DL since there aren’t as many different fleet types to shuffle around staffing and training costs, but it would be a big benefit to keep frontline employees on the property so they can be positioned to flex capacity up and down as the recovery progresses. There is more risk of a small carrier like B6 not being able to spool up fast enough to meet demand vs letting another competitor get a foothold in a key market.
 
trueblew
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu May 21, 2020 5:05 pm

flyby519 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
From https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2 ... ttom-video
RH interviewed on bloomberg.
Saying 70 to 75% cut in June vs 85 to 90% cut in May. (again, I see closer to 70% down for late June and 80% down in early June)
- a lot of essential worker flying still
- a lot of VFR, flying home, some small interest in vacation travelers.
- trying to see the protocols from Caribbean countries in opening back up
- business coming back slowly
- Thinks people will get confused by quarantine rules, so will stay close to home for their travel.
- TATL will happen later 2021 (rather than late 2021, so maybe sooner than Q4) and see demand coming back next year. So maybe they will try next summer.
- see bright path into London airports
- will be smaller and trying to not do any furlough
- 14k out of 23k staff have taken some form of voluntary time off
- thinks mint will bounce back strongly
- leisure market that's once per day will be sub-daily. Doesn't see withdrawing from any city.

I don't know if I believe the last part in not leaving any airport. I think there is a few that they don't need to stay in. As for furlough, I hope it doesn't happen. I don't know enough about labor contracts to know if the cost of furlough at JetBlue is lower than in legacy airlines (who have been making decisions based on demand next Q3 rather than end of this year). If cost of furlough at JetBlue is close to legacies, then they might not furlough if they expect to be 90% of their pre-COVID size by next summer. And so much of what they do is dependent on their legacy competitors. if they continue their current trend of bringing back NYC/BOS really slowly, that might give JetBlue more room at some of these routes to bring back capacity more quickly. It would seem to me that smaller airlines like JetBlue that depend so much on 2 or 3 population centers would have a harder time to plan their future size in this type of recovery.


Furlough costs will naturally be much smaller at a carrier like B6 vs DL since there aren’t as many different fleet types to shuffle around staffing and training costs, but it would be a big benefit to keep frontline employees on the property so they can be positioned to flex capacity up and down as the recovery progresses. There is more risk of a small carrier like B6 not being able to spool up fast enough to meet demand vs letting another competitor get a foothold in a key market.


B6 effectively have three fleet types and relatively generous furlough language in the pilot contract. On a relative basis, it would be much more expensive than WN/NK/F9, but somewhat less than DL.
 
flyby519
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu May 21, 2020 5:20 pm

trueblew wrote:
flyby519 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
From https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2 ... ttom-video
RH interviewed on bloomberg.
Saying 70 to 75% cut in June vs 85 to 90% cut in May. (again, I see closer to 70% down for late June and 80% down in early June)
- a lot of essential worker flying still
- a lot of VFR, flying home, some small interest in vacation travelers.
- trying to see the protocols from Caribbean countries in opening back up
- business coming back slowly
- Thinks people will get confused by quarantine rules, so will stay close to home for their travel.
- TATL will happen later 2021 (rather than late 2021, so maybe sooner than Q4) and see demand coming back next year. So maybe they will try next summer.
- see bright path into London airports
- will be smaller and trying to not do any furlough
- 14k out of 23k staff have taken some form of voluntary time off
- thinks mint will bounce back strongly
- leisure market that's once per day will be sub-daily. Doesn't see withdrawing from any city.

I don't know if I believe the last part in not leaving any airport. I think there is a few that they don't need to stay in. As for furlough, I hope it doesn't happen. I don't know enough about labor contracts to know if the cost of furlough at JetBlue is lower than in legacy airlines (who have been making decisions based on demand next Q3 rather than end of this year). If cost of furlough at JetBlue is close to legacies, then they might not furlough if they expect to be 90% of their pre-COVID size by next summer. And so much of what they do is dependent on their legacy competitors. if they continue their current trend of bringing back NYC/BOS really slowly, that might give JetBlue more room at some of these routes to bring back capacity more quickly. It would seem to me that smaller airlines like JetBlue that depend so much on 2 or 3 population centers would have a harder time to plan their future size in this type of recovery.


Furlough costs will naturally be much smaller at a carrier like B6 vs DL since there aren’t as many different fleet types to shuffle around staffing and training costs, but it would be a big benefit to keep frontline employees on the property so they can be positioned to flex capacity up and down as the recovery progresses. There is more risk of a small carrier like B6 not being able to spool up fast enough to meet demand vs letting another competitor get a foothold in a key market.


B6 effectively have three fleet types and relatively generous furlough language in the pilot contract. On a relative basis, it would be much more expensive than WN/NK/F9, but somewhat less than DL.


Yes, single fleet makes it cheaper to furlough, and if B6 was serious about a furlough I am sure they would announce a permanent parking of the 190s to prevent pilots from displacing into those seats. Say they announce this in 4Q 2020, they could park the fleet slowly over the remainder of 2021 which would force the pilots into the 320 instead. There would be relatively few A220 seats to displace into for 2021, and those were always planned to be full transitions anyways since it is a new frame.
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu May 21, 2020 9:53 pm

1700 FLIGHT SEGMENTS ADDED for June on top of 30 percent schedule. Dropping into open time over last few days
 
unusualattitude
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu May 21, 2020 10:14 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
1700 FLIGHT SEGMENTS ADDED for June on top of 30 percent schedule. Dropping into open time over last few days


Not added, these have been for sale on JetBlue.com and in the GDS the whole time. They were just withheld from the crews trying to bid them. No change to the published schedules, just playing with the employee groups.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Thu May 21, 2020 10:26 pm

I don't know if those flight segments are existing ones or new ones, but I took a look right now on NYC to STI on June 26th and already 3 out of 6 flights are sold out of Blue Basic tickets. It seems like this would be a good time to add more flights to DR. I'm sure they are noticing other routes that are hitting this 2/3 occupancy pretty quickly too.
 
caribny
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri May 22, 2020 3:29 pm

tphuang wrote:
I don't know if those flight segments are existing ones or new ones, but I took a look right now on NYC to STI on June 26th and already 3 out of 6 flights are sold out of Blue Basic tickets. It seems like this would be a good time to add more flights to DR. I'm sure they are noticing other routes that are hitting this 2/3 occupancy pretty quickly too.



Of course the DR has 2/3 of the Covid19 cases in the entire Caribbean, despite having just over 25% of the population. I wonder how that will impact leisure travel once that recovers.
 
CobaltScar
Posts: 649
Joined: Thu Mar 23, 2017 2:30 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri May 22, 2020 3:35 pm

caribny wrote:
tphuang wrote:
I don't know if those flight segments are existing ones or new ones, but I took a look right now on NYC to STI on June 26th and already 3 out of 6 flights are sold out of Blue Basic tickets. It seems like this would be a good time to add more flights to DR. I'm sure they are noticing other routes that are hitting this 2/3 occupancy pretty quickly too.



Of course the DR has 2/3 of the Covid19 cases in the entire Caribbean, despite having just over 25% of the population. I wonder how that will impact leisure travel once that recovers.



DR has more Covid than Haiti? Surprising.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri May 22, 2020 4:55 pm

caribny wrote:
tphuang wrote:
I don't know if those flight segments are existing ones or new ones, but I took a look right now on NYC to STI on June 26th and already 3 out of 6 flights are sold out of Blue Basic tickets. It seems like this would be a good time to add more flights to DR. I'm sure they are noticing other routes that are hitting this 2/3 occupancy pretty quickly too.



Of course the DR has 2/3 of the Covid19 cases in the entire Caribbean, despite having just over 25% of the population. I wonder how that will impact leisure travel once that recovers.


If you look at the numbers, the curve have been flattened in NY.

The tests they've done show that by May 1, 20% of NYC population had already been infected and the mortality rate really isn't as scary as people make it out to be. And i'm sure by now, the infection rate is higher and even higher amongst the PR/DR expat population. I mean there is a lot of people that already got it so it's not a risk for them to travel or people around them. Antibody testing is going to be widely available for people to take soon.

At some point, certain communities in NYC will be close to herd immunity and we are going to get close to that point before other cities/states. If you look at infection rates among states, NY/NJ/CT/MA are the 4 highest in the country. Getting it sooner also means you get out of it sooner. I believe the worst is already over unless reinfection is a big issue.
 
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STT757
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri May 22, 2020 5:20 pm

tphuang wrote:
caribny wrote:
tphuang wrote:
I don't know if those flight segments are existing ones or new ones, but I took a look right now on NYC to STI on June 26th and already 3 out of 6 flights are sold out of Blue Basic tickets. It seems like this would be a good time to add more flights to DR. I'm sure they are noticing other routes that are hitting this 2/3 occupancy pretty quickly too.



Of course the DR has 2/3 of the Covid19 cases in the entire Caribbean, despite having just over 25% of the population. I wonder how that will impact leisure travel once that recovers.


If you look at the numbers, the curve have been flattened in NY.

The tests they've done show that by May 1, 20% of NYC population had already been infected and the mortality rate really isn't as scary as people make it out to be. And i'm sure by now, the infection rate is higher and even higher amongst the PR/DR expat population. I mean there is a lot of people that already got it so it's not a risk for them to travel or people around them. Antibody testing is going to be widely available for people to take soon.

At some point, certain communities in NYC will be close to herd immunity and we are going to get close to that point before other cities/states. If you look at infection rates among states, NY/NJ/CT/MA are the 4 highest in the country. Getting it sooner also means you get out of it sooner. I believe the worst is already over unless reinfection is a big issue.


Nothing substantial is going to happen in regards to a recovery in the airline industry until either there's a vaccine or the feared second wave doesn't materialize. I think the latter is the most likely scenario. If cases just stay at a low level and nothing pops up I think you will see a start to a real recovery in January. And if a second wave doesn't materialize in January that will build to a rebound for spring break traffic, which will build towards a rebound into next Summer. However International traffic may still lag behind, and economic damage done may mean a return to 2019 levels might not be until the second half of the decade.
Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
 
n2dru
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri May 22, 2020 6:20 pm

CobaltScar wrote:
caribny wrote:
tphuang wrote:
I don't know if those flight segments are existing ones or new ones, but I took a look right now on NYC to STI on June 26th and already 3 out of 6 flights are sold out of Blue Basic tickets. It seems like this would be a good time to add more flights to DR. I'm sure they are noticing other routes that are hitting this 2/3 occupancy pretty quickly too.



Of course the DR has 2/3 of the Covid19 cases in the entire Caribbean, despite having just over 25% of the population. I wonder how that will impact leisure travel once that recovers.



DR has more Covid than Haiti? Surprising.


Why is it surprising?
 
CobaltScar
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Fri May 22, 2020 7:42 pm

n2dru wrote:
CobaltScar wrote:
caribny wrote:


Of course the DR has 2/3 of the Covid19 cases in the entire Caribbean, despite having just over 25% of the population. I wonder how that will impact leisure travel once that recovers.



DR has more Covid than Haiti? Surprising.


Why is it surprising?


Because Haiti is the poorest country in the western hemisphere and usually leads the region in all things bad.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat May 23, 2020 1:40 am

More service exemptions for JetBlue (other airlines go similar exemptions) include ABQ, PSP, SMF, SRQ, ORH. I'm quite surprised they picked SRQ and not RNO. Maybe they think there is still some traffic from LGB to RNO. Given that northeast to Florida is one of the first to return, I'm not sure the rationale in stopping service to SRQ.
 
n2dru
Posts: 190
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sat May 23, 2020 2:36 am

CobaltScar wrote:
n2dru wrote:
CobaltScar wrote:


DR has more Covid than Haiti? Surprising.


Why is it surprising?


Because Haiti is the poorest country in the western hemisphere and usually leads the region in all things bad.


Leads the region in all things bad is a blanket statement. DR has had its fair share of bad publicity/events in the not too distant past if you care to remember.
 
tphuang
Posts: 4841
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Sun May 24, 2020 1:29 pm

From OAG this week, was surprised to see some of the trims by B6 for June in light of the discussion of added flights. A lot of the trims (especially out of JFK) are just international destinations starting later. Other cuts are some BOS business market trims. Should be more in line with expected demand.

Other than that, there are some cuts by other airlines which I'm sure will make things a little easier for B6.

Looks like AS is cutting JFK/BOS-LAX further out, which means they probably will come back more slowly if at all. Not a total surprise given their weaknesses here.

DL's cuts are in for July. If you are B6, you will be very happy about what at 25 to 30% schedule looks like for Delta in July.

JFK/LGA even with some more capacity back has just a total of 83 flights, including just 36 out of JFK. TATL flights are obviously at a minimum and feeder flights are non-existent. Even the beyond perimeter business flights are very minimal from what I can see.
Nothing to AUS. Just 1x to SAN/LAS each
Just 2x to SFO and 4x to LAX

The VFR stuff is minimal too with just 1 flight each to SJU/STI/SDQ, which should allow B6 to aggressively add back capacity here.

From this, I think as long as TATL demand is weak, DL will have a hard time to even utilizing their own slots next year let alone claiming slots that become available. if DL's running a 70% schedule by next summer, let's say it gets back to over 250 flights a day out of LGA (5 times as much as now), it would seem to be really hard for them to get to anywhere close to the 230 flights a day they had been running out of JFK or even close to 200 (which is probably what's needed to utilize 80% of their slots).

Out of BOS, DL is stuck at just 23 flights a day with only 1x daily to MCO/TPA as non-hub flights. Again, with TATL demand most likely consolidating at JFK, I don't see how DL bringing back BOS to even 80 flights a day by end of next year.

We will see over the summer if B6 tries to add back flights more quickly to some of these markets where DL is not eager to compete in. Maybe they can add enough capacity back to get DL to drop a good chunk of them.

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