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ChrisNH38
Posts: 250
Joined: Fri Sep 06, 2019 10:53 pm

Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Jan 08, 2020 8:36 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
iyerhari wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
That not what I implied.
Suppose in its anger, Iran drops bombs on the United Arab Emirates. It will be game over for EK.

The Middle East region has survived for so long and you can possibly jot down endless friends and enemies in that region over the course of several years that it makes you wonder and hope 'THUS SHALL ALSO PASS'.


I hope so :(


DJI up around 275 at the moment, so the geopolitical angst and hand-wringing seen & heard in the media today is overblown, at least at this stage.
https://my.flightradar24.com/ChrisNH
 
EADSYABSOB73857
Posts: 80
Joined: Mon Apr 08, 2019 11:35 pm

Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Jan 08, 2020 10:08 pm

VS4ever wrote:
2. WN and AA could increase their flight count again, they have the space.


Based on Massport policy, aren’t WN and AA at the risk of having gates taken away from them if they decrease gate utilization and/or aren’t utilizing them beyond a certain level? Do WN and AA not care about that? Based on that fact, is it safe to assume they’ll increase service, whether it’s restoring cut flights/frequencies or starting new flights?
 
airbazar
Posts: 10119
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:12 pm

Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Jan 08, 2020 10:22 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
airbazar wrote:
VS4ever wrote:

Highly doubtful. The whole middle east region Nov YTD is 650K pax (which includes TK and LY as well) which represents 1.6% of the entire pax count, now you could argue that on top of that are connecting pax, but by massport's own numbers that total is about 2.2m for the entire airport,

Will it have an impact, sure. Will it cause BOS to shrink, don't think so, because people still have to get where they are going even if they don't bounce through DOH or DXB, you would see their pax count reduce and the likes of BA, AF, LH compensate somewhat for that, as connections to India and the like would go through there.

That, and the premise that QR and EK would go bankrupt due to a conflict in the middle east is very flawed to begin with. The middle east outside of the UAE proper represents a tiny amount of these airlines' business. By and large their business model is to connect passengers from different parts of the globe of which the ME is one but a very small one. And that's to say nothing about QR not really being a "for-profit" airline to begin with. "Western" airlines would suffer the most from an extended conflict as they did during the Gulf wars due to rising fuel prices, IMO.


That not what I implied.
Suppose in its anger, Iran drops bombs on the United Arab Emirates. It will be game over for EK.


This is a U.S.-Iran conflict. Nothing to do with the UAE. Moreover, the UAE is a sort of safe heaven for them to store their money so they're not going to bomb their money.
Just from the wikipedia page: "Iranian businesses have a major presence in the UAE. Around 8,000 Iranian traders and trading firms are registered in the UAE, according to the local Iranian Business Council."
 
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VS4ever
Posts: 2563
Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2004 10:03 am

Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:26 pm

EADSYABSOB73857 wrote:
VS4ever wrote:
2. WN and AA could increase their flight count again, they have the space.


Based on Massport policy, aren’t WN and AA at the risk of having gates taken away from them if they decrease gate utilization and/or aren’t utilizing them beyond a certain level? Do WN and AA not care about that? Based on that fact, is it safe to assume they’ll increase service, whether it’s restoring cut flights/frequencies or starting new flights?


http://massport.com/media/3425/mpa-fy19-cafr-final.pdf

Page 165 details the leases (before WN's move to B in August and page 166 details the recapture provisions.

Basically if you aren't using a gate, even if its leased to you, and someone else needs it, you have to let them, regardless of who they are. Refuse and you lose the gate.

WN, NK and AS are on monthly leases that can be pulled with 30 days notice.
B6, DL, UA and AA - have recapture language that if your average per gate drops below the airport wide average (I am assuming between A, B and C) then you can lose gates. So this one is the risk for AA and UA if they drop too far. Also explains the reduction in gates following the move round to accommodate other carriers and lessen the risk of losing further gates as a result. With the MAX issues, clearly AA are probably most at risk.

For all but AA, of the big 4, annual renewable leases are in place, AA is going to be interesting because they were given 20 year leases on 8 gates which expire 6/13/2021 and 13 gates which expire 9/30/2023, however of those 3 are subleased to AC, which leaves the 18 gates that AA currently has.

Upshot is, AA and WN are probably most at risk right now, however I have a suspicion that due to the MAX issues, Massport maybe giving both a pass in terms of reduced usage until they fly again. Now, if the MAX's fly and the frequencies don't return, then things could get very messy indeed, especially when Massport built 2 new gates for WN usage and were at one point expecting more..
That feeling when you sit at the end of a runway, brakes are released and the raw power takes over. Now that is a thing of beauty and it never gets old.
 
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adamh8297
Posts: 3212
Joined: Sat Dec 15, 2012 6:28 pm

Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:47 pm

pitbosflyer wrote:
tlecam wrote:
adamh8297 wrote:
With DL adding a 4th BOS-SEA for Summer, there are now up to 11 daily flights on the route.

There were 2 each by B6 and AS in July 2010
There were 2 dailies by AA in July 2000. B6 and AS were not at BOS yet.

Capacity double between 2000-2010 and went beyond doubling in 2010-2020.


Some growth is warranted given the business ties on the route (tech, Amazon, Liberty Mutual acquired Safeco etc...) but yields are going to continue to be garbage.


Yeah with the battle for business traffic on the route the carriers really have no choice but to offer the increased frequencies.



Here's a snapshot of the local BOS-SEA O+D in peak season Q3.

2000- 600 PDEW
2010- 700 PDEW
2018- 1000 PDEW

Connecting does happen on both ends since there are 1500-1750 seats available on give day.
Airlines flown: A3, AA, AC, AF, AM, BA, B6, CA, CO, CX, DL, EA, EL, IB, LH, MI, MQ, NH, NW, NZ, OU, PE, QF, S4, SQ, TP, UA, US, VS, WE, WN

2019: CX BOS-HKG, WE HKG-HKT, CA HKT-PEK-EWR, B6 EWR-BOS
 
Dieuwer
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Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 09, 2020 12:23 am

airbazar wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
airbazar wrote:
That, and the premise that QR and EK would go bankrupt due to a conflict in the middle east is very flawed to begin with. The middle east outside of the UAE proper represents a tiny amount of these airlines' business. By and large their business model is to connect passengers from different parts of the globe of which the ME is one but a very small one. And that's to say nothing about QR not really being a "for-profit" airline to begin with. "Western" airlines would suffer the most from an extended conflict as they did during the Gulf wars due to rising fuel prices, IMO.


That not what I implied.
Suppose in its anger, Iran drops bombs on the United Arab Emirates. It will be game over for EK.


This is a U.S.-Iran conflict. Nothing to do with the UAE. Moreover, the UAE is a sort of safe heaven for them to store their money so they're not going to bomb their money.
Just from the wikipedia page: "Iranian businesses have a major presence in the UAE. Around 8,000 Iranian traders and trading firms are registered in the UAE, according to the local Iranian Business Council."


Interesting. So the UAE is like the Switzerland of the Middle East.
 
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adamh8297
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Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 09, 2020 12:32 am

Anna.aero had an interesting article on Florida airport seats. BOS is 9th in total seats to Sunshine State out of all USA Airports. For Metro Area airports (adding ORH/MHT/PVD) it could be 6th or 7th leapfrogging PHL, maybe jumping ahead of DAL/DFW, and the combination of JFK/LGA becoming #2.

https://www.anna.aero/2020/01/08/florid ... -capacity/


Dieuwer wrote:
airbazar wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:

That not what I implied.
Suppose in its anger, Iran drops bombs on the United Arab Emirates. It will be game over for EK.


This is a U.S.-Iran conflict. Nothing to do with the UAE. Moreover, the UAE is a sort of safe heaven for them to store their money so they're not going to bomb their money.
Just from the wikipedia page: "Iranian businesses have a major presence in the UAE. Around 8,000 Iranian traders and trading firms are registered in the UAE, according to the local Iranian Business Council."


Interesting. So the UAE is like the Switzerland of the Middle East.


They did team up with Saudi Arabia and others to blockade Qatar though. One of the reasons for this blockade was Qatar's ties to Iran
Airlines flown: A3, AA, AC, AF, AM, BA, B6, CA, CO, CX, DL, EA, EL, IB, LH, MI, MQ, NH, NW, NZ, OU, PE, QF, S4, SQ, TP, UA, US, VS, WE, WN

2019: CX BOS-HKG, WE HKG-HKT, CA HKT-PEK-EWR, B6 EWR-BOS
 
EADSYABSOB73857
Posts: 80
Joined: Mon Apr 08, 2019 11:35 pm

Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 09, 2020 12:59 am

VS4ever wrote:
EADSYABSOB73857 wrote:
VS4ever wrote:
2. WN and AA could increase their flight count again, they have the space.


Based on Massport policy, aren’t WN and AA at the risk of having gates taken away from them if they decrease gate utilization and/or aren’t utilizing them beyond a certain level? Do WN and AA not care about that? Based on that fact, is it safe to assume they’ll increase service, whether it’s restoring cut flights/frequencies or starting new flights?


http://massport.com/media/3425/mpa-fy19-cafr-final.pdf

Page 165 details the leases (before WN's move to B in August and page 166 details the recapture provisions.

Basically if you aren't using a gate, even if its leased to you, and someone else needs it, you have to let them, regardless of who they are. Refuse and you lose the gate.

WN, NK and AS are on monthly leases that can be pulled with 30 days notice.
B6, DL, UA and AA - have recapture language that if your average per gate drops below the airport wide average (I am assuming between A, B and C) then you can lose gates. So this one is the risk for AA and UA if they drop too far. Also explains the reduction in gates following the move round to accommodate other carriers and lessen the risk of losing further gates as a result. With the MAX issues, clearly AA are probably most at risk.

For all but AA, of the big 4, annual renewable leases are in place, AA is going to be interesting because they were given 20 year leases on 8 gates which expire 6/13/2021 and 13 gates which expire 9/30/2023, however of those 3 are subleased to AC, which leaves the 18 gates that AA currently has.

Upshot is, AA and WN are probably most at risk right now, however I have a suspicion that due to the MAX issues, Massport maybe giving both a pass in terms of reduced usage until they fly again. Now, if the MAX's fly and the frequencies don't return, then things could get very messy indeed, especially when Massport built 2 new gates for WN usage and were at one point expecting more..


Also, Massport built a whole new side of B for AA.. therefore, I can’t imagine that AA is on a hard decline at Logan. As well, WN has put in place what I feel is a long-term strategy in order to create a larger customer base on the East Coast. Historically, WN has not been strong in the eastern US, but they have recognized making a large investment, so given that Massport constructed another 2 gates for them (on top of the 5 that they already have) why would they start exiting without losing gates.. therefore, it would seem it has to be MAX related..
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2413
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 09, 2020 1:10 am

adamh8297 wrote:
Anna.aero had an interesting article on Florida airport seats. BOS is 9th in total seats to Sunshine State out of all USA Airports. For Metro Area airports (adding ORH/MHT/PVD) it could be 6th or 7th leapfrogging PHL, maybe jumping ahead of DAL/DFW, and the combination of JFK/LGA becoming #2.

https://www.anna.aero/2020/01/08/florid ... -capacity/


Dieuwer wrote:
airbazar wrote:

This is a U.S.-Iran conflict. Nothing to do with the UAE. Moreover, the UAE is a sort of safe heaven for them to store their money so they're not going to bomb their money.
Just from the wikipedia page: "Iranian businesses have a major presence in the UAE. Around 8,000 Iranian traders and trading firms are registered in the UAE, according to the local Iranian Business Council."


Interesting. So the UAE is like the Switzerland of the Middle East.


They did team up with Saudi Arabia and others to blockade Qatar though. One of the reasons for this blockade was Qatar's ties to Iran


...and that blockade is still going on.
But you would not be hesitant to book either EK or QR for travel later this year?
 
jplatts
Posts: 3539
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 09, 2020 1:12 am

VS4ever wrote:
EADSYABSOB73857 wrote:
VS4ever wrote:
2. WN and AA could increase their flight count again, they have the space.


Based on Massport policy, aren’t WN and AA at the risk of having gates taken away from them if they decrease gate utilization and/or aren’t utilizing them beyond a certain level? Do WN and AA not care about that? Based on that fact, is it safe to assume they’ll increase service, whether it’s restoring cut flights/frequencies or starting new flights?


Basically if you aren't using a gate, even if its leased to you, and someone else needs it, you have to let them, regardless of who they are. Refuse and you lose the gate.

WN, NK and AS are on monthly leases that can be pulled with 30 days notice.

Upshot is, AA and WN are probably most at risk right now, however I have a suspicion that due to the MAX issues, Massport maybe giving both a pass in terms of reduced usage until they fly again. Now, if the MAX's fly and the frequencies don't return, then things could get very messy indeed, especially when Massport built 2 new gates for WN usage and were at one point expecting more..


I previously mentioned WN possibly re-adding BOS-PHX nonstop service due to (a) BOS being one of the top destinations that WN doesn't currently serve nonstop from PHX, (b) WN having higher load factors on BOS-PHX nonstop service back in 2011 and 2012 than it did on BOS-ATL/IND/MCI/MKE nonstop service in 2018 and 2019, and (c) WN having a FF base in Greater Phoenix to support the return of BOS-PHX nonstop service. I have also previously mentioned that WN probably should not have dropped BOS-PHX nonstop service as the demand was likely there for WN to keep BOS-PHX nonstop service.

I have also mentioned WN possibly increasing frequencies on BOS-DEN nonstop service with WN having plans to significantly expand its DEN operation.

AA already has a lot of nonstop service to its East Coast hubs from BOS, and AA also already has multiple daily nonstops to its ORD, DFW, PHX, and LAX hubs from BOS. It is very likely that AA would continue to have access to enough gates at BOS to accommodate nonstop service to its hubs out of BOS with the amount of nonstop service that AA currently has to its hubs out of BOS.
 
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VS4ever
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Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 09, 2020 1:19 am

EADSYABSOB73857 wrote:
VS4ever wrote:
EADSYABSOB73857 wrote:

Based on Massport policy, aren’t WN and AA at the risk of having gates taken away from them if they decrease gate utilization and/or aren’t utilizing them beyond a certain level? Do WN and AA not care about that? Based on that fact, is it safe to assume they’ll increase service, whether it’s restoring cut flights/frequencies or starting new flights?


http://massport.com/media/3425/mpa-fy19-cafr-final.pdf

Page 165 details the leases (before WN's move to B in August and page 166 details the recapture provisions.

Basically if you aren't using a gate, even if its leased to you, and someone else needs it, you have to let them, regardless of who they are. Refuse and you lose the gate.

WN, NK and AS are on monthly leases that can be pulled with 30 days notice.
B6, DL, UA and AA - have recapture language that if your average per gate drops below the airport wide average (I am assuming between A, B and C) then you can lose gates. So this one is the risk for AA and UA if they drop too far. Also explains the reduction in gates following the move round to accommodate other carriers and lessen the risk of losing further gates as a result. With the MAX issues, clearly AA are probably most at risk.

For all but AA, of the big 4, annual renewable leases are in place, AA is going to be interesting because they were given 20 year leases on 8 gates which expire 6/13/2021 and 13 gates which expire 9/30/2023, however of those 3 are subleased to AC, which leaves the 18 gates that AA currently has.

Upshot is, AA and WN are probably most at risk right now, however I have a suspicion that due to the MAX issues, Massport maybe giving both a pass in terms of reduced usage until they fly again. Now, if the MAX's fly and the frequencies don't return, then things could get very messy indeed, especially when Massport built 2 new gates for WN usage and were at one point expecting more..


Also, Massport built a whole new side of B for AA.. therefore, I can’t imagine that AA is on a hard decline at Logan. As well, WN has put in place what I feel is a long-term strategy in order to create a larger customer base on the East Coast. Historically, WN has not been strong in the eastern US, but they have recognized making a large investment, so given that Massport constructed another 2 gates for them (on top of the 5 that they already have) why would they start exiting without losing gates.. therefore, it would seem it has to be MAX related..


slight point of clarification on WN, they only have 5 gates total including the 2 that were built for them

B works like this

B1-B3 - AC - 3
B4-B22 - AA - 18
B23-B31 - UA - 9
B31A-B35 - WN - 5 (31A,32,33,34,35)
B35A-B36 - AS (although i have seen today NK using B35A as well)
B37-B38 - NK

So right now, WN has a theoretical max of 55 departures a day (when they were in A, their max turns were 11), they aren't getting more gates, unless they share with AS, who aren't exactly boosting their schedule a whole lot. Agreed about AA, the relocation cost Massport a bunch, so they will want their ROI on that. The big thing with AA is whether the JFK flying will return once the max's are back (freeing up other aircraft), or are those cuts permanent and the move to PHL continues.

We won't see WN's plans until the Max returns, BOS, PVD and MHT have all been drawn down and continue to drop, so if they are serious about investing out here, that probably has to change.
That feeling when you sit at the end of a runway, brakes are released and the raw power takes over. Now that is a thing of beauty and it never gets old.
 
FGITD
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Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 09, 2020 1:26 am

Austrian's Boston plan seems to be revealing itself, through non-public consumption means.

To keep it short and simple...Austrian does not seem interested in using Boston as a quick summer test to see if it's a decent choice.

I think the big European airline groups are starting to see Boston as more than a "one daily, maybe seasonal" destination.
 
ASA
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Joined: Thu Dec 02, 2010 5:12 pm

Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 09, 2020 3:27 am

adamh8297 wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
Interesting. So the UAE is like the Switzerland of the Middle East.


They did team up with Saudi Arabia and others to blockade Qatar though. One of the reasons for this blockade was Qatar's ties to Iran


My :twocents:

UAE used to be like the Switzerland of the Middle East. Qatar too. Focused on business, aviation, and regional friendships - both grew exponentially and punched above their weights. In recent years, they have become more involved in regional politics - went in opposite directions though. UAE sided with the Saudis in blockading Qatar. Turkey and Iran practically bailed them out (not money-wise, but trade, transport, and military support). In the process, Turkey established its first overseas military base in 100 years (in Qatar).

In the Yemen conflict, UAE also got actively involved alongside Saudis. But they drastically scaled down their operations and rhetoric after the Saudi oil field attacks and has officially withdrawn since. I guess a similar attack on DXB or AUH will drastically affect the business climate of these cities and EK/EY operations - they read the tea leaves quickly. :biggrin:

Dieuwer wrote:
...and that blockade is still going on.
But you would not be hesitant to book either EK or QR for travel later this year?


I am planning a trip in March and normally I use EK/QR/TK to travel to DAC. But now with the Iran tension - I'm definitely worried. Hoping the situation will cool down by then ... the westward 1-stop option (CX) isn't any better as Hong Kong is pretty unstable too.

The blockade makes QR fly circuitous routes for Africa, but most operations are fine as all European and North American routes use Iranian airspace. I have flown Qatar a few times during this period. It didn't really affect much for the US or South Asia routes.
 
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adamh8297
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Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 09, 2020 3:57 am

FGITD wrote:
Austrian's Boston plan seems to be revealing itself, through non-public consumption means.

To keep it short and simple...Austrian does not seem interested in using Boston as a quick summer test to see if it's a decent choice.

I think the big European airline groups are starting to see Boston as more than a "one daily, maybe seasonal" destination.


Good to hear though some of the connections in VIE are not the greatest!

Speaking of LH Group - do you see any interlining with LH and B6 or has that connection dropped off a bit.

Also - I just checked B6's new COC and they have 4O (Interjet), CZ, MU and IG as interline partners. They stopped advertising these agreements on their site. You didn't happen to see something like 4O GDL-MEX connecting to B6 MEX-BOS?
Airlines flown: A3, AA, AC, AF, AM, BA, B6, CA, CO, CX, DL, EA, EL, IB, LH, MI, MQ, NH, NW, NZ, OU, PE, QF, S4, SQ, TP, UA, US, VS, WE, WN

2019: CX BOS-HKG, WE HKG-HKT, CA HKT-PEK-EWR, B6 EWR-BOS
 
iyerhari
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Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 09, 2020 2:20 pm

jplatts wrote:
AA already has a lot of nonstop service to its East Coast hubs from BOS, and AA also already has multiple daily nonstops to its ORD, DFW, PHX, and LAX hubs from BOS. It is very likely that AA would continue to have access to enough gates at BOS to accommodate nonstop service to its hubs out of BOS with the amount of nonstop service that AA currently has to its hubs out of BOS.

AA is also starting nonstop service to AUS in April-2020 and possibly BOS-LHR departure could happen from B based on the gate configuration and availability. Not to mention some of the weekend seasonal trips. It looks likely with a nice terminal, AA may end up adding few more destinations from BOS.
 
tphuang
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Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 09, 2020 2:37 pm

Not saying AA will do this, but they only miss SFO and maybe RDU among the largest business markets out of BOS. 2 flights a day to SFO and maybe 4 to RDU would help preserve their position in BOS.
 
jplatts
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Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 09, 2020 3:12 pm

tphuang wrote:
Not saying AA will do this, but they only miss SFO and maybe RDU among the largest business markets out of BOS. 2 flights a day to SFO and maybe 4 to RDU would help preserve their position in BOS.


BOS-RDU is already pretty well served with DL, B6, F9, and NK all already serving RDU nonstop from BOS. In addition, AA also now has to deal with DL now having a focus city at RDU. There are also some WN FF's in the RDU market who would choose to connect to BOS through BWI due to WN still having significant market share in the RDU market, even when there are plenty of nonstop options to BOS from RDU on other airlines.

One challenge that AA would have on BOS-SFO is that other airlines are the airline of choice for many travelers in both the San Francisco Bay Area and Greater Boston, with UA, AS, or WN being the airline of choice for many travelers in the San Francisco Bay Area and with DL or B6 being the airline of choice for many travelers in Greater Boston.
 
iyerhari
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Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 09, 2020 3:36 pm

Possibly SJC I think considering AA added AUS-SJC? AA now flies to some of the most busiest destinations.
 
jplatts
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Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 09, 2020 4:51 pm

While DL is currently the only airline serving CVG nonstop from BOS, BOS-CVG nonstop service could be added by AA, WN, F9, or B6 with BOS-CVG being one of the top domestic routes without nonstop competition.

I was looking at fares on WN BOS-BWI-CVG vs. DL BOS-CVG nonstops vs. AA BOS-CVG through NYC, PHL, DCA, or CLT, and I found that WN had lower fares on BOS-BWI-CVG than DL's BOS-CVG nonstops or connecting options on AA through CLT, PHL, LGA, JFK, or DCA. I think that AA would face a challenge on the BOS-CVG route due to (a) DL still having a focus city at CVG, (b) AA likely charging higher fares than a LCC competitor would on BOS-CVG if AA adds BOS-CVG nonstop service, (c) DL having a significant FF base in both the BOS and CVG markets, and (d) AA struggling to capture O&D traffic on BOS-CVG due to passengers either sticking to DL or choosing cheaper connecting options on WN.

WN had previously stated that it considered adding BOS-CVG nonstop service almost 2 years ago, but WN is unlikely to add BOS-CVG nonstop service due to WN recently dropping nonstop service to other Midwestern cities out of BOS and due to the plane shortage that WN is currently facing due to the 737 MAX grounding.

F9 adding BOS-CVG might be a possibility due to F9 still serving some destinations other than DEN nonstop from CVG and with F9 being able to offer cheaper fares on the CVG-BOS route than what DL, AA, UA, or WN are currently charging on BOS-CVG flights. On the other hand, BOS-CVG is at risk of being dropped by F9, even if F9 gets good load factors on the BOS-CVG route, with F9 having already dropped nonstop service out of CVG to AUS, IAH, JAX, LGA, PHL, RDU, SAT, SFO, and SJC.

B6 adding BOS-CVG nonstop service is also a possibility with CVG being one of the top markets that B6 doesn't currently serve nonstop from CVG. B6 also would have stronger point-of-sale on the BOS end than WN or B6 do. B6 is also less likely to drop BOS-CVG nonstop service than WN or F9. B6 probably would also get better yields on BOS-CVG than F9 would if BOS-CVG is added by B6 but not by F9 since B6 fares on are likely to be higher than F9's fares on BOS-CVG (at least if F9 doesn't add BOS-CVG nonstop service).
 
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VS4ever
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Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 09, 2020 5:16 pm

jplatts wrote:
While DL is currently the only airline serving CVG nonstop from BOS, BOS-CVG nonstop service could be added by AA, WN, F9, or B6 with BOS-CVG being one of the top domestic routes without nonstop competition.

I was looking at fares on WN BOS-BWI-CVG vs. DL BOS-CVG nonstops vs. AA BOS-CVG through NYC, PHL, DCA, or CLT, and I found that WN had lower fares on BOS-BWI-CVG than DL's BOS-CVG nonstops or connecting options on AA through CLT, PHL, LGA, JFK, or DCA. I think that AA would face a challenge on the BOS-CVG route due to (a) DL still having a focus city at CVG, (b) AA likely charging higher fares than a LCC competitor would on BOS-CVG if AA adds BOS-CVG nonstop service, (c) DL having a significant FF base in both the BOS and CVG markets, and (d) AA struggling to capture O&D traffic on BOS-CVG due to passengers either sticking to DL or choosing cheaper connecting options on WN.

WN had previously stated that it considered adding BOS-CVG nonstop service almost 2 years ago, but WN is unlikely to add BOS-CVG nonstop service due to WN recently dropping nonstop service to other Midwestern cities out of BOS and due to the plane shortage that WN is currently facing due to the 737 MAX grounding.

F9 adding BOS-CVG might be a possibility due to F9 still serving some destinations other than DEN nonstop from CVG and with F9 being able to offer cheaper fares on the CVG-BOS route than what DL, AA, UA, or WN are currently charging on BOS-CVG flights. On the other hand, BOS-CVG is at risk of being dropped by F9, even if F9 gets good load factors on the BOS-CVG route, with F9 having already dropped nonstop service out of CVG to AUS, IAH, JAX, LGA, PHL, RDU, SAT, SFO, and SJC.

B6 adding BOS-CVG nonstop service is also a possibility with CVG being one of the top markets that B6 doesn't currently serve nonstop from CVG. B6 also would have stronger point-of-sale on the BOS end than WN or B6 do. B6 is also less likely to drop BOS-CVG nonstop service than WN or F9. B6 probably would also get better yields on BOS-CVG than F9 would if BOS-CVG is added by B6 but not by F9 since B6 fares on are likely to be higher than F9's fares on BOS-CVG (at least if F9 doesn't add BOS-CVG nonstop service).


F9's potential will be curious only because of their need to use E as a staging post rather than the other terminals, that severely limits their growth potential because after 2pm E is off limits because of the International banks and in fact their contract with Massport is to only use E in off-peak hours right now. Unless AS drops down to 1 gate because of their continued retrenchment, there's nowhere else for them to go, as I doubt B6 are going to give up any room in C, nor DL in A. Currently with their 1 gate they use right now, there is a slot for another service between 10 and 11.30 daily, with that spot widening to 9 to 11.30 on Tuesday when the MCO flight doesn't run, the other option is after 12.30 on the days that DEN/RDU do not run. So they could add a bit if need be, But they can't anything but morning service.

If F9 were interested in picking up a 2nd gate, which based on my analysis should be feasible, even with B6 using 3-4 gates in the am. Then we could see some additional options, but honestly it depends on how much they truly want to be in the BOS market, given it's expense to them.
That feeling when you sit at the end of a runway, brakes are released and the raw power takes over. Now that is a thing of beauty and it never gets old.
 
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tlecam
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Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 09, 2020 5:33 pm

tphuang wrote:
Not saying AA will do this, but they only miss SFO and maybe RDU among the largest business markets out of BOS. 2 flights a day to SFO and maybe 4 to RDU would help preserve their position in BOS.


It would be interesting to see them try SFO. I’m curious what equipment they would use on the route. I do think that B6, DL and UA would respond.

I am curious as to whether AA adding London and other recent moves were purely a reaction to LATAM or part of a broader strategy (or both).
BOS-LGA-JFK | A:319/20/21, 332/3, 346 || B:717, 735, 737, 738, 739, 752, 753, 762, 763, 764, 787, 772, 744 || MD80, MD90
 
airbazar
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Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:15 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
Interesting. So the UAE is like the Switzerland of the Middle East.

Dubai mostly. That's how they pay for all the nice things they have, having pretty much run out of oil.
adamh8297 wrote:
They did team up with Saudi Arabia and others to blockade Qatar though. One of the reasons for this blockade was Qatar's ties to Iran

Or so they claimed. Either way Iran did not start that conflict. Interestingly enough they didn't start this current conflict with the U.S. either. So unless the UAE or Saudi Arabia decide to start chucking bombs into Iran, Iran is not going to retaliate.
EADSYABSOB73857 wrote:
Based on Massport policy, aren’t WN and AA at the risk of having gates taken away from them if they decrease gate utilization and/or aren’t utilizing them beyond a certain level?

Massport didn't "build it for AA". AA just happens to be the current occupant of a terminal that sorely needed improvements. It's Massport's job to provide adequate facilities to its tenants, whoever they may be.
 
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ChrisNH38
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Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 09, 2020 11:53 pm

EK / B6 code-share discontinued (for now). It will be interesting to see whether they bring back the A380 in June.
https://my.flightradar24.com/ChrisNH
 
iyerhari
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Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 10, 2020 12:13 am

Really? where is it? I just checked EK.com and it's there - https://www.emirates.com/us/english/tra ... s/jetblue/
 
Dieuwer
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Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 10, 2020 12:26 am

Let's not start spreading Fake News.
 
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adamh8297
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Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:25 am

ChrisNH38 wrote:
EK / B6 code-share discontinued (for now). It will be interesting to see whether they bring back the A380 in June.


I think it only applies to the B6 code going on BOS-DXB and not the other way around.

I can book DTW-BOS-DXB on EK's site. Interline is clearly intact. On Expedia it comes up as EK code on B6 Metal.
Airlines flown: A3, AA, AC, AF, AM, BA, B6, CA, CO, CX, DL, EA, EL, IB, LH, MI, MQ, NH, NW, NZ, OU, PE, QF, S4, SQ, TP, UA, US, VS, WE, WN

2019: CX BOS-HKG, WE HKG-HKT, CA HKT-PEK-EWR, B6 EWR-BOS
 
FGITD
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Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 10, 2020 2:12 am

Delta having themselves quite the night. 772 from Vegas to CDG coming in, with a replacement 772 from Atlanta scheduled to come up and carry out the rest of the trip
 
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VS4ever
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Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 10, 2020 2:25 am

FGITD wrote:
Delta having themselves quite the night. 772 from Vegas to CDG coming in, with a replacement 772 from Atlanta scheduled to come up and carry out the rest of the trip


Hmmm, that must be one of the returns from CES. Cue DL starts 772 service from BOS-CDG posts.
That feeling when you sit at the end of a runway, brakes are released and the raw power takes over. Now that is a thing of beauty and it never gets old.
 
FGITD
Posts: 875
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Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:22 am

VS4ever wrote:
FGITD wrote:
Delta having themselves quite the night. 772 from Vegas to CDG coming in, with a replacement 772 from Atlanta scheduled to come up and carry out the rest of the trip


Hmmm, that must be one of the returns from CES. Cue DL starts 772 service from BOS-CDG posts.



Let us begin 6 pages of discussion regarding Delta's new LAS-BOS-CDG service, by way of New Brunswick

That said, several hours on and they still haven't left yet.
 
airbazar
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Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:08 pm

adamh8297 wrote:
ChrisNH38 wrote:
EK / B6 code-share discontinued (for now). It will be interesting to see whether they bring back the A380 in June.


I think it only applies to the B6 code going on BOS-DXB and not the other way around.

I can book DTW-BOS-DXB on EK's site. Interline is clearly intact. On Expedia it comes up as EK code on B6 Metal.


I still see the codeshare on the BOS-DXB route. Tonight's flight still has it, and so do the flights for Sat and Sun.
https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-t ... 1027404402
 
georgiabill
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Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 10, 2020 4:45 pm

Is anyone else surprised of the lack of OS promoting it's new VIE-BOS-VIE service? I may have missed them. I would think they would have ads in the Globe and Herald as well commercials on the major local broadcast stations and radio stations. I mostly listen to 93.7 and 98.5 both sports talk stations.
Come to think of it I don't recall much advertising from AT on their CMN-BOS-CMN flights.
 
S0Y
Posts: 127
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Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:14 pm

airbazar wrote:
adamh8297 wrote:
ChrisNH38 wrote:
EK / B6 code-share discontinued (for now). It will be interesting to see whether they bring back the A380 in June.


I think it only applies to the B6 code going on BOS-DXB and not the other way around.

I can book DTW-BOS-DXB on EK's site. Interline is clearly intact. On Expedia it comes up as EK code on B6 Metal.


I still see the codeshare on the BOS-DXB route. Tonight's flight still has it, and so do the flights for Sat and Sun.
https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-t ... 1027404402



There is another thread that talks about this issue. Appears to be a FAA restriction
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1438713
 
FGITD
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Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:28 pm

georgiabill wrote:
Is anyone else surprised of the lack of OS promoting it's new VIE-BOS-VIE service? I may have missed them. I would think they would have ads in the Globe and Herald as well commercials on the major local broadcast stations and radio stations. I mostly listen to 93.7 and 98.5 both sports talk stations.
Come to think of it I don't recall much advertising from AT on their CMN-BOS-CMN flights.



The only one I really remember seeing advertising for recently is Qatar. And at that, half their ads were inside the terminal itself. I think Korean did some as well, but not too extravagant.

Really though, going beyond just Boston,airline advertising is something of a dead art. There's some here and there, and every few years there might be a big push (“France is in the air" definitely falls under this) for a particular campaign but that's really it.

I think the best advertising these days is when people log into whatever travel site they use, and click the cheapest fare.
 
clrd4t8koff
Posts: 1659
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Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 10, 2020 7:29 pm

FGITD wrote:
georgiabill wrote:
Is anyone else surprised of the lack of OS promoting it's new VIE-BOS-VIE service? I may have missed them. I would think they would have ads in the Globe and Herald as well commercials on the major local broadcast stations and radio stations. I mostly listen to 93.7 and 98.5 both sports talk stations.
Come to think of it I don't recall much advertising from AT on their CMN-BOS-CMN flights.



The only one I really remember seeing advertising for recently is Qatar. And at that, half their ads were inside the terminal itself. I think Korean did some as well, but not too extravagant.

Really though, going beyond just Boston,airline advertising is something of a dead art. There's some here and there, and every few years there might be a big push (“France is in the air" definitely falls under this) for a particular campaign but that's really it.

I think the best advertising these days is when people log into whatever travel site they use, and click the cheapest fare.


FGITD couldn’t agree more. Unless a route is highly competitive you rarely see airlines spending money on advertising new services. People will see/find the new service when looking for flights and will book on two main factors - price and quickest option. Most non-stops will have a premium attached, and most people will book the non-stop as long as it’s not 4x all other prices. On top of that OS has the luxury of being under the LH Group, so passengers will be funneled to them through LH bookings and LH already has a well established brand in BOS.
 
Supersarestupid
Posts: 16
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Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 10, 2020 7:31 pm

georgiabill wrote:
Is anyone else surprised of the lack of OS promoting it's new VIE-BOS-VIE service? I may have missed them. I would think they would have ads in the Globe and Herald as well commercials on the major local broadcast stations and radio stations. I mostly listen to 93.7 and 98.5 both sports talk stations.
Come to think of it I don't recall much advertising from AT on their CMN-BOS-CMN flights.



Hawaiian did a lot of advertising too, at least that I noticed. Ads on Pandora/Spotify and local events to promote the new service. But generally I agree that low fares in searches are the best advertisements.
 
airbazar
Posts: 10119
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Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:08 pm

I see Hawaiian commercials on TV almost every day.
Having said that the advertising business is all on social media these days. I get plenty of airline adds when I'm surfing the web. They know what I like :)
 
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VS4ever
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Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:43 pm

airbazar wrote:
I see Hawaiian commercials on TV almost every day.
Having said that the advertising business is all on social media these days. I get plenty of airline adds when I'm surfing the web. They know what I like :)


^---^ This, I see a ton of DL ads, even on this very site on the mobile version. I remember commenting on something similar a while back that I found on the BBC advertising flights..A click through charge on a banner ad is a hell of a lot cheaper than a billboard or a TV spot.
That feeling when you sit at the end of a runway, brakes are released and the raw power takes over. Now that is a thing of beauty and it never gets old.
 
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adamh8297
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Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 10, 2020 10:01 pm

georgiabill wrote:
Is anyone else surprised of the lack of OS promoting it's new VIE-BOS-VIE service? I may have missed them. I would think they would have ads in the Globe and Herald as well commercials on the major local broadcast stations and radio stations. I mostly listen to 93.7 and 98.5 both sports talk stations.
Come to think of it I don't recall much advertising from AT on their CMN-BOS-CMN flights.


In the past few months riding MBTA and Commuter Rail I've seen VS and AZ even with the latter's financial woes. VS was on red line for a bit and AZ was on the ad screens at North Station.

Also the Hynes has the New England travel and adventure show tomorrow and it looks like HA, S4, and TK are present. TK has a huge booth!
Airlines flown: A3, AA, AC, AF, AM, BA, B6, CA, CO, CX, DL, EA, EL, IB, LH, MI, MQ, NH, NW, NZ, OU, PE, QF, S4, SQ, TP, UA, US, VS, WE, WN

2019: CX BOS-HKG, WE HKG-HKT, CA HKT-PEK-EWR, B6 EWR-BOS
 
clrd4t8koff
Posts: 1659
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Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 10, 2020 10:04 pm

VS4ever wrote:
airbazar wrote:
I see Hawaiian commercials on TV almost every day.
Having said that the advertising business is all on social media these days. I get plenty of airline adds when I'm surfing the web. They know what I like :)


^---^ This, I see a ton of DL ads, even on this very site on the mobile version. I remember commenting on something similar a while back that I found on the BBC advertising flights..A click through charge on a banner ad is a hell of a lot cheaper than a billboard or a TV spot.


These make sense. DL is trying very hard to compete/win in BOS and all the major US carriers (DL, AA, UA, AS) are trying to win BOS-Hawaii traffic so I get why HA feels compelled. How many carriers are aggressively competing for routes to VIE, LED, SOF, etc? Most of OS’s routes out of BOS aren’t hyper-competitive.
 
kq747
Posts: 123
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Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Jan 11, 2020 3:59 am

adamh8297 wrote:
georgiabill wrote:
Is anyone else surprised of the lack of OS promoting it's new VIE-BOS-VIE service? I may have missed them. I would think they would have ads in the Globe and Herald as well commercials on the major local broadcast stations and radio stations. I mostly listen to 93.7 and 98.5 both sports talk stations.
Come to think of it I don't recall much advertising from AT on their CMN-BOS-CMN flights.


In the past few months riding MBTA and Commuter Rail I've seen VS and AZ even with the latter's financial woes. VS was on red line for a bit and AZ was on the ad screens at North Station.

Also the Hynes has the New England travel and adventure show tomorrow and it looks like HA, S4, and TK are present. TK has a huge booth!


Seen a good amount of EK posters/billboards on the T and around town...think it was because they were starting A380 service but wasn't just A380 focussed. Also seen TV ads for EK every now and again
 
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pitbosflyer
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Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Jan 11, 2020 4:05 pm

airbazar wrote:
I see Hawaiian commercials on TV almost every day.
Having said that the advertising business is all on social media these days. I get plenty of airline adds when I'm surfing the web. They know what I like :)


I hear ads for Hawaiian and their "new non stop service to Hawaii" pretty much every day on Kiss 108 (107.9).
A:320/21, 333, 343, 346 || B:717, 735, 737, 738, 739, 752, 753, 763, 772 || MD80, MD90 || E:145, 170, 175, 190, 195 || CR200, 700, 900
 
clrd4t8koff
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Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Jan 11, 2020 5:09 pm

Heard ads this morning on the radio for Aer Lingus. Guessing it’s because of DL now flying BOS-DUB.

On another note I just left the travel show going on at the Hynes Convention Center. Randomly Egyptair had a booth there with a big sign promoting NEW Service to Boston, Washington DC and San Francisco. I haven’t heard anything about MS coming to Boston?! Wish I knew how to upload photos from my phone on here as I took a pic of the sign.
 
Dieuwer
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Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Jan 11, 2020 5:12 pm

clrd4t8koff wrote:
Heard ads this morning on the radio for Aer Lingus. Guessing it’s because of DL now flying BOS-DUB.

On another note I just left the travel show going on at the Hynes Convention Center. Randomly Egyptair had a booth there with a big sign promoting NEW Service to Boston, Washington DC and San Francisco. I haven’t heard anything about MS coming to Boston?! Wish I knew how to upload photos from my phone on here as I took a pic of the sign.


Embed a link to your e.g. FLickr account (if you have one)?
 
clrd4t8koff
Posts: 1659
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2005 3:57 am

Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Jan 11, 2020 5:13 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
clrd4t8koff wrote:
Heard ads this morning on the radio for Aer Lingus. Guessing it’s because of DL now flying BOS-DUB.

On another note I just left the travel show going on at the Hynes Convention Center. Randomly Egyptair had a booth there with a big sign promoting NEW Service to Boston, Washington DC and San Francisco. I haven’t heard anything about MS coming to Boston?! Wish I knew how to upload photos from my phone on here as I took a pic of the sign.


Embed a link to your e.g. FLickr account (if you have one)?


No Flickr account
 
aaflyer777
Posts: 282
Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2014 6:37 pm

Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Jan 11, 2020 5:25 pm

clrd4t8koff wrote:
Heard ads this morning on the radio for Aer Lingus. Guessing it’s because of DL now flying BOS-DUB.

On another note I just left the travel show going on at the Hynes Convention Center. Randomly Egyptair had a booth there with a big sign promoting NEW Service to Boston, Washington DC and San Francisco. I haven’t heard anything about MS coming to Boston?! Wish I knew how to upload photos from my phone on here as I took a pic of the sign.


I think they might just be advertising their new codeshare agreement with United. The expanded it in September to include SFO, LAX, ORD, and BOS.

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... -sep-2019/
 
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adamh8297
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Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Jan 11, 2020 6:00 pm

clrd4t8koff wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
clrd4t8koff wrote:
Heard ads this morning on the radio for Aer Lingus. Guessing it’s because of DL now flying BOS-DUB.

On another note I just left the travel show going on at the Hynes Convention Center. Randomly Egyptair had a booth there with a big sign promoting NEW Service to Boston, Washington DC and San Francisco. I haven’t heard anything about MS coming to Boston?! Wish I knew how to upload photos from my phone on here as I took a pic of the sign.


Embed a link to your e.g. FLickr account (if you have one)?


No Flickr account


Imgur.com will work upload photo and it will automatically make a link. No account needed!
Airlines flown: A3, AA, AC, AF, AM, BA, B6, CA, CO, CX, DL, EA, EL, IB, LH, MI, MQ, NH, NW, NZ, OU, PE, QF, S4, SQ, TP, UA, US, VS, WE, WN

2019: CX BOS-HKG, WE HKG-HKT, CA HKT-PEK-EWR, B6 EWR-BOS
 
clrd4t8koff
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Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2005 3:57 am

Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Jan 12, 2020 12:39 am

See if this works...

Image
 
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adamh8297
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Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Jan 12, 2020 12:52 am

clrd4t8koff wrote:
See if this works...

Image


I was able to see it via quoting your post and getting the link. I think its just marketing the codeshare with UA via United.

Of course what MS doesn't tell you in that advertisement that connections are in JFK via B6 interline too.
Airlines flown: A3, AA, AC, AF, AM, BA, B6, CA, CO, CX, DL, EA, EL, IB, LH, MI, MQ, NH, NW, NZ, OU, PE, QF, S4, SQ, TP, UA, US, VS, WE, WN

2019: CX BOS-HKG, WE HKG-HKT, CA HKT-PEK-EWR, B6 EWR-BOS
 
clrd4t8koff
Posts: 1659
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2005 3:57 am

Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Jan 12, 2020 1:08 am

adamh8297 wrote:
clrd4t8koff wrote:
See if this works...

Image


I was able to see it via quoting your post and getting the link. I think its just marketing the codeshare with UA via United.

Of course what MS doesn't tell you in that advertisement that connections are in JFK via B6 interline too.


Any idea why the image didn’t post?
 
S0Y
Posts: 127
Joined: Tue Aug 29, 2017 5:25 pm

Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Jan 12, 2020 2:13 am

Emirates’ A380 will operate to Boston between 01 June and 30 September 2019 and between 01 December 2019 and 31 January 2020 to accommodate the increased seasonal demand in travel to the US East Coast.

https://www.emirates.com/media-centre/e ... s-for-2019
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