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Dieuwer
Posts: 1826
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Feb 05, 2020 11:42 pm

EADSYABSOB73857 wrote:
Based on all these adds and new routes for next year, what are we projecting for a pax number and growth multiple? Certainly more than what Massport is projecting.


I suppose we will see a drop in pax count this year due to the Coronavirus. Not to mention the possibility of HU and CX bankruptcy.
 
massachoicetts
Posts: 52
Joined: Tue Jul 30, 2019 7:23 pm

Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Feb 05, 2020 11:51 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
EADSYABSOB73857 wrote:
Based on all these adds and new routes for next year, what are we projecting for a pax number and growth multiple? Certainly more than what Massport is projecting.


Haven’t really been following BOS much this year, what adds we looking at?


These are ballparks and based on pure memory but:

-Allegiant starting operations in May to Asheville, Destin, Grand Rapids and Knoxville
-Sun Country adding 2W service to Madison WI
-American Airlines starting 5x daily service to Raleigh/Durham, 12W to Austin, 12W to Indianapolis, 1x to London and 1W to Key West. They also are increasing Miami by 1x.
-jetBlue is adding about 16 new daily flights to existing route to places like SEA, LAX, SAN, LGA, etc
-Delta is adding new service 1x a day to Rome, 1x to Paris, 1x London-Gatiwck, 1x Manchester and increasing freqencies to Domestic routes
-Frontier is adding San Juan and Philadelphia flights both daily.
US Domestic Airlines are adding a cumulative ~35 daily flights this year with heavy focus on international routes. Also keep in mind Delta and jetBlue increased their domestic routes by 15 flights a day each last October, which will represented in Full Year Data this year. This is a huge increase for Domestic Airlines.

-Austrian Airlines is adding seasonal 5 Weekly flights to Boston to Vienna
-TAP added daily service to Ponta Delgada, starting this summer.
-Westjet is adding a new flight to Calgary
-Air Canada is adding a new flight to Calgary.
-Korean Air is going daily I think too

Too early to make predictions but I think that International will go up by 6% this year and domestic will increase by 5% this year. Also predicting about 44.5 million passsengers this year with all these additions. Only thing that might lower it are further MAX groundings and extended Hanian cancellations.
 
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VS4ever
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Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Feb 06, 2020 2:32 am

Nicknuzzii wrote:
EADSYABSOB73857 wrote:
Based on all these adds and new routes for next year, what are we projecting for a pax number and growth multiple? Certainly more than what Massport is projecting.


Haven’t really been following BOS much this year, what adds we looking at?


Examples:

OS - VIE
G4 - AVL, TYS, GRR and VPS
F9 - PHL
B6 - A whole bunch coming to various places, some of which maybe officially loaded this weekend when B6 are expected to do their schedule extension
DL - LGW, FCO, upgrade on DUB, 2nd CDG
AA - AUS, more MIA, LHR and i thought some more.
LH - 380 from MUC
KE - upgrade on equipment

to name but a few.

With China going to knock a little bit back for Feb and March at least, But my gut tells me to shoot for 44.1m, which is 1.6m uplift over 2019... We shall see. That would be about the same growth rate as 2019. overall. Now if WN head upwards again, that could climb further.
That feeling when you sit at the end of a runway, brakes are released and the raw power takes over. Now that is a thing of beauty and it never gets old.
 
tphuang
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Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Feb 06, 2020 2:49 am

I think to Asia, it's going to be down across the board this year. Not a lot of people are going to want to go to HK or Singapore right now when half of the population are wearing masks. My guess is CX will be reduced in the coming month. KE will undo their equipment upgrade and JL will downgrade equipment. On the other hand, more demand for Caribbean market.
 
airbazar
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Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Feb 06, 2020 1:52 pm

tphuang wrote:
I think to Asia, it's going to be down across the board this year. Not a lot of people are going to want to go to HK or Singapore right now when half of the population are wearing masks. My guess is CX will be reduced in the coming month. KE will undo their equipment upgrade and JL will downgrade equipment. On the other hand, more demand for Caribbean market.

I'm about to book our Summer vacation to Bali with a 3-day stopover in Singapore, but I'm flying from JFK because the fares are significantly lower than from BOS. I'm waiting a few more days to book, hoping that the hysteria over the Coronavirus drives prices even lower. Having said that, prices from BOS to Asian for the Summer don't appear to be suffering at all. CX is still ridiculously expensive. So I don't think your predictions will come true. Lets not forget the Summer Olympics are happening this year in Tokyo so no way KE and JL will be cutting service from BOS this Summer.
 
ASA
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Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Feb 06, 2020 2:03 pm

airbazar wrote:
tphuang wrote:
I think to Asia, it's going to be down across the board this year. Not a lot of people are going to want to go to HK or Singapore right now when half of the population are wearing masks. My guess is CX will be reduced in the coming month. KE will undo their equipment upgrade and JL will downgrade equipment. On the other hand, more demand for Caribbean market.

I'm about to book our Summer vacation to Bali with a 3-day stopover in Singapore, but I'm flying from JFK because the fares are significantly lower than from BOS. I'm waiting a few more days to book, hoping that the hysteria over the Coronavirus drives prices even lower. Having said that, prices from BOS to Asian for the Summer don't appear to be suffering at all. CX is still ridiculously expensive. So I don't think your predictions will come true. Lets not forget the Summer Olympics are happening this year in Tokyo so no way KE and JL will be cutting service from BOS this Summer.


I think Asia will bounce back strongly from this. The virus will subside soon - China and the region's economy is not going anywhere - they will push it double to catch up the lost business, revenue, and trade deals. Intra-Asia trade will get a boost, I feel. That will also have a spillover effect on North America traffic.

Just my :twocents: - I'm not an expert in any of these :biggrin:
 
FGITD
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Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Feb 06, 2020 7:39 pm

I am now hearing that there might be yet another upgauge on BOS-CDG.

And just to kill it before it spreads, no it's not an a380...
 
jworks158
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Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Feb 06, 2020 8:03 pm

FGITD wrote:
I am now hearing that there might be yet another upgauge on BOS-CDG.

And just to kill it before it spreads, no it's not an a380...


Some quick thoughts,

On the delta side A339, or A359? They are looking for places to put the spare planes now that china flying has stopped.
(A359,A343/A346,A332,A319/320/321,A220-100)(B788,B772,B762,B752,B744/B748,B732/B737/B738,B717)(E190,E145)(CRJ100/200, Dash 8-200)(MD-83)
JB,UA(C5,EV,CHQ,AX),AA(EGF,ZW,AX,PT),DL(OH,YX),FL,WN,LH,BA,AF,AZ,IB,VX,CO
https://my.flightradar24.com/theorangetechie
 
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VS4ever
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Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Feb 06, 2020 8:17 pm

FGITD wrote:
I am now hearing that there might be yet another upgauge on BOS-CDG.

And just to kill it before it spreads, no it's not an a380...


Well given the players. DL doesn't have any, DY already fits 344 in their 789's and AF are shedding them like allligator skin. :).

Given AF are at 350 level and i doubt they will move up to 777 (you never know of course), the only thing i can see is DL trying to shoehorn another 330 option from BOS, Unless it's a 763 to 764 scenario. Maybe the 2nd daily for DL will go to 330 because there will be space in A to fit it, that late at night, be curious to see where the ship is coming from to do that if it's the case.
That feeling when you sit at the end of a runway, brakes are released and the raw power takes over. Now that is a thing of beauty and it never gets old.
 
Dieuwer
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Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Feb 06, 2020 8:22 pm

For all the up-gauging talk, it is not exactly high season to Europe at the moment. No use in dumping excess capacity to Europe unless you want to fly half-empty planes.
 
iyerhari
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Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Feb 06, 2020 9:22 pm

VS4ever wrote:
FGITD wrote:
I am now hearing that there might be yet another upgauge on BOS-CDG.

And just to kill it before it spreads, no it's not an a380...


Well given the players. DL doesn't have any, DY already fits 344 in their 789's and AF are shedding them like allligator skin. :).

Given AF are at 350 level and i doubt they will move up to 777 (you never know of course), the only thing i can see is DL trying to shoehorn another 330 option from BOS, Unless it's a 763 to 764 scenario. Maybe the 2nd daily for DL will go to 330 because there will be space in A to fit it, that late at night, be curious to see where the ship is coming from to do that if it's the case.

Possibility of AA starting the BOS-CDG route? Terminal B AA side is pretty much empty after 9:00 pm EST unless there are major delays at BOS or at the destination.
 
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VS4ever
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Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Feb 06, 2020 9:23 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
For all the up-gauging talk, it is not exactly high season to Europe at the moment. No use in dumping excess capacity to Europe unless you want to fly half-empty planes.


You assume that the up-gauge is happening now, it won't, it will probably happen end of March (early season) or end of May (high season) when the seasonal stuff kicks in and the extra lift is probably needed.

DL is already moving DUB up to a 330 in high season for this reason.
That feeling when you sit at the end of a runway, brakes are released and the raw power takes over. Now that is a thing of beauty and it never gets old.
 
RL757PVD
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Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Feb 06, 2020 9:35 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
For all the up-gauging talk, it is not exactly high season to Europe at the moment. No use in dumping excess capacity to Europe unless you want to fly half-empty planes.


Its called saturating the market so there's no room for B6
Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
 
AvGeekBOS
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Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Feb 06, 2020 9:37 pm

Upguaging to newer(and yes larger) aircraft could save some time on the old 763 et. al. aircraft, which could definitely pay dividends down the line due to production delays, etc. Remember that all aircraft have to go through a Very time consuming C or D check which is expensive and puts them out of commission for weeks/months. Delaying that could save millions per airframe
 
EADSYABSOB73857
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Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Feb 06, 2020 11:04 pm

RL757PVD wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
For all the up-gauging talk, it is not exactly high season to Europe at the moment. No use in dumping excess capacity to Europe unless you want to fly half-empty planes.


Its called saturating the market so there's no room for B6


It’s not saturation if the market requires the additional supply in the high season, which it does. It’s clear you haven’t referred to the data. Loads on BOS-CDG-BOS are in the high 80s-90s in the high season.
 
MAH4546
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Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Feb 06, 2020 11:32 pm

EADSYABSOB73857 wrote:
RL757PVD wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
For all the up-gauging talk, it is not exactly high season to Europe at the moment. No use in dumping excess capacity to Europe unless you want to fly half-empty planes.


Its called saturating the market so there's no room for B6


It’s not saturation if the market requires the additional supply in the high season, which it does. It’s clear you haven’t referred to the data. Loads on BOS-CDG-BOS are in the high 80s-90s in the high season.


Of course loads are going to be great. The fares are dirt cheap and not long term sustainable. Not unique to Boston-Paris, which has too much capacity, but to many U.S.-Europe markets.
a.
 
Dieuwer
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Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Feb 06, 2020 11:59 pm

VS4ever wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
For all the up-gauging talk, it is not exactly high season to Europe at the moment. No use in dumping excess capacity to Europe unless you want to fly half-empty planes.


You assume that the up-gauge is happening now, it won't, it will probably happen end of March (early season) or end of May (high season) when the seasonal stuff kicks in and the extra lift is probably needed.

DL is already moving DUB up to a 330 in high season for this reason.


Flight to China are cancelled NOW. What are AA, DL, and UA gonna do with those planes NOW?
 
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VS4ever
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Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Feb 07, 2020 12:23 am

Again with the Capacity issue, I hear it time and time again with nothing to back it up, EADS (I can't write all that out). said it right.. It's only excess capacity if planes are flying half empty, they are most definitely NOT doing that, particularly in the summer season and many airlines cut back on frequency in the Winter season to manage that capacity variation that's needed (Shocker huh!). Sure we want every airline to run their full schedule year round, but that's just not appropriate for many markets from BOS for many many reasons. But those seasonal markets for DL for example (DUB,LIS,FCO,MAN as examples) are in different stages, but DUB has had it's season lengthened and an up-gauge in equipment, started as a 752, now going to be 330 in high season. BIG jump. FCO is going in as a 330, LIS switched to an Int'l 757..So tell me where the capacity issues are.. airlines do NOT put bigger equipment on routes with 50% loads for example, they DO put bigger equipment on routes with 80-90% loads, reasonable fares and a market to draw from, both O&D and to a LIMITED extent Connections. (remember BOS is 94% O&D) - per Massport's financials.

Let's provide some practical examples

1. LH is switching to the 380 on the MUC route..
2. KE is moving up to the 777 (assuming the China issue doesn't crash their market either)
3. DL have increased gauge on DUB, double daily on CDG, gone in straight at a 330 to FCO
4. TP have added a second route via PDL
5. VS have added the 2nd daily, it's stuck and not trashed their loads.
6. BA have successfully incorporated their 380 into the mix
7. AF have moved up to the 350 on BOTH their dailies in the summer
8. OS moving in with their link to VIE and Eastern Europe

What you are seeing right now is a consolidation of power.. VS/KL/AF/DL and AZ are going to be running roughly 17 daily in the summer (i am tired so I maybe 1 off either way there), LH/OS are expanding, BA is consolidating on LHR, DY is still packing them in from LGW (and I do not believe DL will impact that, there is enough traffic from South London to go around), FCO and CDG, they only axed MAD because they bailed generally because of their financial situation, once all those 787's are back up and running.. well..

Fares are a different thing and the wizards in Revenue Management at AF, DL and DY (for CDG) must feel that the fare and ancillary revenues levels are sustainable, otherwise they would not put on extra flying, sure one reason maybe to lock B6 out, but B6 have made no mention of CDG yet for example and honestly you are looking at 2022 or 2023 before they get into that market, these adds are for 2020.... So forgive me.. but no, it's not excess capacity, it's a market adjustment. Now if AF and their 350's and DL with their 2nd daily, cause a huge drop in load factors (more seats, but not as much growth in pax), then I would agree with you, there is excess capacity, the airlines would too. But for right now, there's no such thing, despite your continued protestations to that end.

The only true international routes with excess capacity right now out of BOS are CPH and PVD/PEK and possibly CMN, everyone else is doing just fine. SK is fixing CPH later this year with the 321 and we can all understand the issues with HU given the socio issues back in China and CMN is just getting its feet wet. You can argue the domestic capacity situation with the fight between DL and B6 and potentially now AA weighing in, that some of those routes definitely have excess capacity coming (AUS, RDU, LGA as examples) but again the Route Planning guys and the Revenue Management guys either see a path to make it work (you have to make EBITDA numbers at the end of the day), or it's a loss leader as part of the network and they are happy to take the pain as they make money elsewhere to defend their territory, they are doing that now and still making money hand over fist. When your domestic pax number grows 3%, when one of the major carriers (WN) cuts a whole host of routes back, people want to fly here plain and simple.

If there was excess capacity, Massport would not be building 7 (read a possible 14, with the double N/B versions) new International Gates to allow for future growth. Their own conservative opinion has 50m pax by roughly 2027 (if memory serves), the general feeling on this board that they are going to get there sooner than that unless the economy tanks (and we've discussed that before), at that point, there will be a decent amount of capacity to remove, but all bets would be off.

In conclusion, loads and fares do not mean the same. DL ran LHR for years on pathetic load numbers, because a) their customers needed the route and b) upfront was usually full, now look at them. Until such time as we see the loads in the summer dropping to 80% or below across the board in the critical summer months with the increased frequencies. I will argue excess capacity all day long (except if the economy tanks as noted above)
That feeling when you sit at the end of a runway, brakes are released and the raw power takes over. Now that is a thing of beauty and it never gets old.
 
FGITD
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Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Feb 07, 2020 12:27 am

Dieuwer wrote:
VS4ever wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
For all the up-gauging talk, it is not exactly high season to Europe at the moment. No use in dumping excess capacity to Europe unless you want to fly half-empty planes.


You assume that the up-gauge is happening now, it won't, it will probably happen end of March (early season) or end of May (high season) when the seasonal stuff kicks in and the extra lift is probably needed.

DL is already moving DUB up to a 330 in high season for this reason.


Flight to China are cancelled NOW. What are AA, DL, and UA gonna do with those planes NOW?


Well I can assure you it isn't happening now, or at the very least not for over a month.

As for now, they'll most likely just be rotating the fleet slack through wherever its needed. Advance maintenance, etc. It's true that an aircraft on the ground makes no money, but also not uncommon at all.
 
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airportugal310
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Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Feb 07, 2020 12:37 am

VS4ever wrote:

If there was excess capacity, Massport would not be building 7 (read a possible 14, with the double N/B versions) new International Gates to allow for future growth. Their own conservative opinion has 50m pax by roughly 2027 (if memory serves), the general feeling on this board that they are going to get there sooner than that unless the economy tanks (and we've discussed that before), at that point, there will be a decent amount of capacity to remove, but all bets would be off


I work in another part of the commercial aviation industry that can relate: even when (not if) another recession occurs, this additional building of terminal/gates will be there for the future. Recessions don't last forever, but the infrastructure will be there for the eventual rebound. There was a time about 10-15 years ago when airlines and airports were too broke to pay for these necessary upgrades, so they didn't build. The results are what we see today all over the country in a good economy...constrained resources all around. Investing NOW, when borrowed money is "cheap" and affordable, ensures that the long-term needs are covered when it will need to be. It's a vicious cycle, but the aviation industry is filled with fine examples all over the world. Different parts of the world are in their own stages of the economic cycle, so YMMV.

Off my soap box I go...
“They bought their tickets, they knew what they were getting into. I say, let 'em crash.”
 
Dieuwer
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Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Feb 07, 2020 12:55 am

FGITD wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
VS4ever wrote:

You assume that the up-gauge is happening now, it won't, it will probably happen end of March (early season) or end of May (high season) when the seasonal stuff kicks in and the extra lift is probably needed.

DL is already moving DUB up to a 330 in high season for this reason.


Flight to China are cancelled NOW. What are AA, DL, and UA gonna do with those planes NOW?


Well I can assure you it isn't happening now, or at the very least not for over a month.

As for now, they'll most likely just be rotating the fleet slack through wherever its needed. Advance maintenance, etc. It's true that an aircraft on the ground makes no money, but also not uncommon at all.


So the answer is "maintenance" to the question of what airlines are doing with the sudden spare aircraft.
I also wonder if perhaps there is not that much US3 metal flying to China. Perhaps it is mainly JV partner flying.

airportugal310 wrote:
I work in another part of the commercial aviation industry that can relate: even when (not if) another recession occurs, this additional building of terminal/gates will be there for the future. Recessions don't last forever, but the infrastructure will be there for the eventual rebound. There was a time about 10-15 years ago when airlines and airports were too broke to pay for these necessary upgrades, so they didn't build. The results are what we see today all over the country in a good economy...constrained resources all around. Investing NOW, when borrowed money is "cheap" and affordable, ensures that the long-term needs are covered when it will need to be. It's a vicious cycle, but the aviation industry is filled with fine examples all over the world. Different parts of the world are in their own stages of the economic cycle, so YMMV.

Off my soap box I go...


I think Massport did a great job with Terminal refreshment/refurbishment. Especially Terminal E looks so much better now than it was before. Unfortunately, many other airports in the country seem to be stuck in the old-dingy past (JFK) or have incompetent management turning the place into a perpetual construction pit (hello, DEN).
 
FGITD
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Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Feb 07, 2020 1:00 am

Dieuwer wrote:
FGITD wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:

Flight to China are cancelled NOW. What are AA, DL, and UA gonna do with those planes NOW?


Well I can assure you it isn't happening now, or at the very least not for over a month.

As for now, they'll most likely just be rotating the fleet slack through wherever its needed. Advance maintenance, etc. It's true that an aircraft on the ground makes no money, but also not uncommon at all.


So the answer is "maintenance" to the question of what airlines are doing with the sudden spare aircraft.
I also wonder if perhaps there is not that much US3 metal flying to China. Perhaps it is mainly JV partner flying.[/quote

It's not the answer, but it's an answer. Everyone will do their own thing
 
EADSYABSOB73857
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Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Feb 08, 2020 6:22 am

MAH4546 wrote:
EADSYABSOB73857 wrote:
RL757PVD wrote:

Its called saturating the market so there's no room for B6


It’s not saturation if the market requires the additional supply in the high season, which it does. It’s clear you haven’t referred to the data. Loads on BOS-CDG-BOS are in the high 80s-90s in the high season.


Of course loads are going to be great. The fares are dirt cheap and not long term sustainable. Not unique to Boston-Paris, which has too much capacity, but to many U.S.-Europe markets.



I’m sorry, but this statement you’ve made is extremely ignorant. It’s blatantly clear that you either have no idea what you’re talking about, or you’re completely ignoring the facts/data. You have a track record of declaring that there’s an excess of capacity and the market is being flooded, but this isn’t true at all. And just arguing it (especially that you’re not citing data in your assertions) just makes you look worse because you have no idea what you are talking about. Boston continues to be one of the highest yielding (declared as the highest yielding transatlantic market for BA) and largest transatlantic business markets (there is an immense amount of data to back this up). BOS is highly lucrative, and there is an immensely strong business case (in terms of yield and revenue) for airlines to jump in on this market. You’re ignoring and/or are ignorant to the fundamentals that facilitate the demand for this market- it would appear, since you aren’t citing data with your assertions, that you’ are clueless to the market dynamic and profitability. Provide data and don’t misinform.. Have you even checked the fares on that route?? They’ve been pretty consistent, and they’ve been selling- aside from DY they’ve been consistently been over $600 in Y, and over $5,000 in business class... so what are you even talking about?!
 
EADSYABSOB73857
Posts: 58
Joined: Mon Apr 08, 2019 11:35 pm

Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Feb 08, 2020 7:21 am

VS4ever wrote:
Again with the Capacity issue, I hear it time and time again with nothing to back it up, EADS (I can't write all that out). said it right.. It's only excess capacity if planes are flying half empty, they are most definitely NOT doing that, particularly in the summer season and many airlines cut back on frequency in the Winter season to manage that capacity variation that's needed (Shocker huh!). Sure we want every airline to run their full schedule year round, but that's just not appropriate for many markets from BOS for many many reasons. But those seasonal markets for DL for example (DUB,LIS,FCO,MAN as examples) are in different stages, but DUB has had it's season lengthened and an up-gauge in equipment, started as a 752, now going to be 330 in high season. BIG jump. FCO is going in as a 330, LIS switched to an Int'l 757..So tell me where the capacity issues are.. airlines do NOT put bigger equipment on routes with 50% loads for example, they DO put bigger equipment on routes with 80-90% loads, reasonable fares and a market to draw from, both O&D and to a LIMITED extent Connections. (remember BOS is 94% O&D) - per Massport's financials.

Let's provide some practical examples

1. LH is switching to the 380 on the MUC route..
2. KE is moving up to the 777 (assuming the China issue doesn't crash their market either)
3. DL have increased gauge on DUB, double daily on CDG, gone in straight at a 330 to FCO
4. TP have added a second route via PDL
5. VS have added the 2nd daily, it's stuck and not trashed their loads.
6. BA have successfully incorporated their 380 into the mix
7. AF have moved up to the 350 on BOTH their dailies in the summer
8. OS moving in with their link to VIE and Eastern Europe

What you are seeing right now is a consolidation of power.. VS/KL/AF/DL and AZ are going to be running roughly 17 daily in the summer (i am tired so I maybe 1 off either way there), LH/OS are expanding, BA is consolidating on LHR, DY is still packing them in from LGW (and I do not believe DL will impact that, there is enough traffic from South London to go around), FCO and CDG, they only axed MAD because they bailed generally because of their financial situation, once all those 787's are back up and running.. well..

Fares are a different thing and the wizards in Revenue Management at AF, DL and DY (for CDG) must feel that the fare and ancillary revenues levels are sustainable, otherwise they would not put on extra flying, sure one reason maybe to lock B6 out, but B6 have made no mention of CDG yet for example and honestly you are looking at 2022 or 2023 before they get into that market, these adds are for 2020.... So forgive me.. but no, it's not excess capacity, it's a market adjustment. Now if AF and their 350's and DL with their 2nd daily, cause a huge drop in load factors (more seats, but not as much growth in pax), then I would agree with you, there is excess capacity, the airlines would too. But for right now, there's no such thing, despite your continued protestations to that end.

The only true international routes with excess capacity right now out of BOS are CPH and PVD/PEK and possibly CMN, everyone else is doing just fine. SK is fixing CPH later this year with the 321 and we can all understand the issues with HU given the socio issues back in China and CMN is just getting its feet wet. You can argue the domestic capacity situation with the fight between DL and B6 and potentially now AA weighing in, that some of those routes definitely have excess capacity coming (AUS, RDU, LGA as examples) but again the Route Planning guys and the Revenue Management guys either see a path to make it work (you have to make EBITDA numbers at the end of the day), or it's a loss leader as part of the network and they are happy to take the pain as they make money elsewhere to defend their territory, they are doing that now and still making money hand over fist. When your domestic pax number grows 3%, when one of the major carriers (WN) cuts a whole host of routes back, people want to fly here plain and simple.

If there was excess capacity, Massport would not be building 7 (read a possible 14, with the double N/B versions) new International Gates to allow for future growth. Their own conservative opinion has 50m pax by roughly 2027 (if memory serves), the general feeling on this board that they are going to get there sooner than that unless the economy tanks (and we've discussed that before), at that point, there will be a decent amount of capacity to remove, but all bets would be off.

In conclusion, loads and fares do not mean the same. DL ran LHR for years on pathetic load numbers, because a) their customers needed the route and b) upfront was usually full, now look at them. Until such time as we see the loads in the summer dropping to 80% or below across the board in the critical summer months with the increased frequencies. I will argue excess capacity all day long (except if the economy tanks as noted above)



Can you provide the link for the data concerning the transatlantic market in the high seasons? These people should be banned from the forum for their tendencies to make strong statements with a compete lack of data nor verifiable information to back their claims up- it’s either complete, utter ignorance or a misinformation campaign....
 
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qf789
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Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Feb 08, 2020 10:56 am

Cathay Pacific reducing BOS to 5 weekly from 10 Feb 20

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https://twitter.com/winglets747/status/ ... 27328?s=20
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MAH4546
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Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Feb 08, 2020 11:24 am

EADSYABSOB73857 wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:
EADSYABSOB73857 wrote:

It’s not saturation if the market requires the additional supply in the high season, which it does. It’s clear you haven’t referred to the data. Loads on BOS-CDG-BOS are in the high 80s-90s in the high season.


Of course loads are going to be great. The fares are dirt cheap and not long term sustainable. Not unique to Boston-Paris, which has too much capacity, but to many U.S.-Europe markets.



I’m sorry, but this statement you’ve made is extremely ignorant. It’s blatantly clear that you either have no idea what you’re talking about, or you’re completely ignoring the facts/data. You have a track record of declaring that there’s an excess of capacity and the market is being flooded, but this isn’t true at all. And just arguing it (especially that you’re not citing data in your assertions) just makes you look worse because you have no idea what you are talking about. Boston continues to be one of the highest yielding (declared as the highest yielding transatlantic market for BA) and largest transatlantic business markets (there is an immense amount of data to back this up). BOS is highly lucrative, and there is an immensely strong business case (in terms of yield and revenue) for airlines to jump in on this market. You’re ignoring and/or are ignorant to the fundamentals that facilitate the demand for this market- it would appear, since you aren’t citing data with your assertions, that you’ are clueless to the market dynamic and profitability. Provide data and don’t misinform.. Have you even checked the fares on that route?? They’ve been pretty consistent, and they’ve been selling- aside from DY they’ve been consistently been over $600 in Y, and over $5,000 in business class... so what are you even talking about?!


I have access to airfare and traffic data that is nonpublic. I am not just looking at seat maps and fares on Google Flights. There is too much capacity between Boston and Europe and fares are dirt cheap. They are even more dirt cheap for Europe-originating, where coach is often sub-$600 and business are sub-$2500 isn’t hard to find (especially on TAP). Nothing unique to Boston, though. It’s a bigger problem across the US-Europe market. Boston/Europe numbers are ugly, but so are LA, SF, Miami, Orlando, et al.

One reason for upgauging is typically because it allows fare dumping and it’s much easier to sell and make more money (or lose less) on cheaper fares with big planes, something some posters here don’t realize.

You are also grossly misreading and misrepresenting an Anna.Aero article regarding Boston and British Airways and making a factually wrong statement.
a.
 
EADSYABSOB73857
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Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Feb 08, 2020 1:42 pm

MAH4546 wrote:
EADSYABSOB73857 wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:

Of course loads are going to be great. The fares are dirt cheap and not long term sustainable. Not unique to Boston-Paris, which has too much capacity, but to many U.S.-Europe markets.



I’m sorry, but this statement you’ve made is extremely ignorant. It’s blatantly clear that you either have no idea what you’re talking about, or you’re completely ignoring the facts/data. You have a track record of declaring that there’s an excess of capacity and the market is being flooded, but this isn’t true at all. And just arguing it (especially that you’re not citing data in your assertions) just makes you look worse because you have no idea what you are talking about. Boston continues to be one of the highest yielding (declared as the highest yielding transatlantic market for BA) and largest transatlantic business markets (there is an immense amount of data to back this up). BOS is highly lucrative, and there is an immensely strong business case (in terms of yield and revenue) for airlines to jump in on this market. You’re ignoring and/or are ignorant to the fundamentals that facilitate the demand for this market- it would appear, since you aren’t citing data with your assertions, that you’ are clueless to the market dynamic and profitability. Provide data and don’t misinform.. Have you even checked the fares on that route?? They’ve been pretty consistent, and they’ve been selling- aside from DY they’ve been consistently been over $600 in Y, and over $5,000 in business class... so what are you even talking about?!


I have access to airfare and traffic data that is nonpublic. I am not just looking at seat maps and fares on Google Flights. There is too much capacity between Boston and Europe and fares are dirt cheap. They are even more dirt cheap for Europe-originating, where coach is often sub-$600 and business are sub-$2500 isn’t hard to find (especially on TAP). Nothing unique to Boston, though. It’s a bigger problem across the US-Europe market. Boston/Europe numbers are ugly, but so are LA, SF, Miami, Orlando, et al.

One reason for upgauging is typically because it allows fare dumping and it’s much easier to sell and make more money (or lose less) on cheaper fares with big planes, something some posters here don’t realize.

You are also grossly misreading and misrepresenting an Anna.Aero article regarding Boston and British Airways and making a factually wrong statement.


Post some numbers from this data, just like people provide other information on this site... until you do, your statements are baseless. And airlines are not in a race to the bottom when it comes to jumping into markets or adding capacity. BOS is one of the most lucrative transatlantic markets, airlines are just not in a multi-year strategy to continuously dump capacity, this makes absolutely no business sense whatsoever- it’s not a sound strategy to profitably running a company. Airlines have been adding a lot of transatlantic capacity for the last several years, they wouldn’t be doing this if they were chasing after trash profits. What you’re saying is that that’s what these airlines are doing. As far as the fares go- I’m really interested to see your fare data. A simple search of fares (aside from TAP and Norwegian) they are pretty healthy, and do not reflect the numbers that you quoted. You cannot base your opinion on what two airlines are doing that make up 10% of the transatlantic capacity...

And to address your statement on the Anna.aero article- the article very clearly and unambiguously showed that BOS-LON is the highest yielding market for BA, period. So, I’m factually misrepresenting that???
 
tphuang
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Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Feb 08, 2020 2:14 pm

As a whole, TATL market is still quite high yielding vs some of the other international markets out there like TPAC, because too much power have been given to the legacy JVs that dominate this space and there aren't carrriers like CN3 that kills the front of the cabin yield. The direct J fares on some of these markets are outrageous and that has allowed them to price match ULCCs out there. There are select markets out of BOS that probably do have too much capacity like LIS and probably CDG. But there are many markets like BOS-LHR/MAD/FRA/MUC appears to me to be very healthy. As a whole, TATL simply doesn't have enough low fare competition that you see domestically in places like BOS-PHL and BOS-LAX. That's why I think B6 entering some of these markets out of BOS and NYC is quite critical. There is no reason some of these one way J fares should be 8k. Luckily for legacy carriers, the current A321NEO delays probably is going to push that back a little bit.
 
airbazar
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Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Feb 08, 2020 2:31 pm

EADSYABSOB73857 wrote:
Have you even checked the fares on that route?? They’ve been pretty consistent, and they’ve been selling- aside from DY they’ve been consistently been over $600 in Y, and over $5,000 in business class... so what are you even talking about?!

$600 for Y in Summer is cheap however if you can find a $600 TATL ticket with both catering, checked bag, and seat assignment included, I'd take it. Most seem to be in the $800-$1200 range.
Having said that, the cheap DY fares are the exception to the rule and by no means I would call them dirt cheap. When it costs only $250 to fly all the way to California, $600 to fly to Paris by comparison isn't exactly cheap. The problem is some old timers are living in the past when airlines were able to gauge customers with exorbitant TATL fares. Just because they are cheaper now it doesn't mean they are cheap.
tphuang wrote:
As a whole, TATL market is still quite high yielding vs some of the other international markets out there like TPAC

100% this. As I pointed out above, I am driving to JFK to catch a flight to Bali this Summer because it saves me upwards of $300 per ticket depending on class of service. And i'm avoiding flying thru China which would be even cheaper. As an example, Premium Economy on SQ from JFK is cheaper than anything from BOS in Economy and business class can be had for $2600 R/T. Think about that for a second: R/T in J, JFK-SIN-DPS is cheaper than BOS-Europe in J.
 
georgiabill
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Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Feb 08, 2020 2:32 pm

Another thread on anet got me to thinking if DL is successful on BOS-FCO-BOS route this summer would DL consider extending the route to year round with the route going 3x or 4x year round?
Looking ahead I am wondering if DL is considering BRU,MXP or ATH from BOS. Depending on the economy I could BOS-ATH-BOS or BOS-BRU-BOS (DL could use the 757) summer seasonals starting in 2021.
 
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VS4ever
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Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Feb 08, 2020 2:43 pm

tphuang wrote:
As a whole, TATL market is still quite high yielding vs some of the other international markets out there like TPAC, because too much power have been given to the legacy JVs that dominate this space and there aren't carrriers like CN3 that kills the front of the cabin yield. The direct J fares on some of these markets are outrageous and that has allowed them to price match ULCCs out there. There are select markets out of BOS that probably do have too much capacity like LIS and probably CDG. But there are many markets like BOS-LHR/MAD/FRA/MUC appears to me to be very healthy. As a whole, TATL simply doesn't have enough low fare competition that you see domestically in places like BOS-PHL and BOS-LAX. That's why I think B6 entering some of these markets out of BOS and NYC is quite critical. There is no reason some of these one way J fares should be 8k. Luckily for legacy carriers, the current A321NEO delays probably is going to push that back a little bit.


I am not convinced that LIS has over capacity, while DL’s entrance knocked a bit off of TP’s loads and as folks have said dropped the fares, DL has stimulated that market as there are significantly more flying it. In fact to double down, TP is flying PDL-BOS this year, where is that aircraft coming from? LIS. So it’s another way for folks to get to BOS. Now I wonder if this will kill S4 a bit and that remains to be seen. But again unless the planes and particular flights go out empty or at loss leader fares then I am still struggling to see the issue here.
Let’s remember despite the demise of WW, BOS’s international numbers grew by 700K to 8.3m, over half of that came from Europe which crashed through the 4m mark to 4.2m on it own in 2019. To put this into perspective. In 2012 before this growth really kicked off, the TOTAL International Pax count for the year was 4.3m
People do actually want to come here and in large amounts and outside of the industry fighting, BOS has successfully established itself as a secondary gateway to the US, again, if there was an over capacity issue the expansion wouldn’t happen. It just wouldn’t. AA for example weighs into LHR with a 777, they could have easily have done that with a 757, 767 or 787, but nope they went with one of their top drawer aircraft.
Upgauging May be done for a number of reasons, but at the end of the day you still have to fill those planes with enough people at reasonable revenues to make it profitable. If you don’t you go the way of WW and PF to name but 2.
Lest we forget there is more to a flight than the fare. BA for example keeps its fares down, because they charge for seat selection and other ancillaries, then there is the 257m lbs of cargo flowing through BOS each year..
The world has changed. Low fares are no longer the only metric to profitability
That feeling when you sit at the end of a runway, brakes are released and the raw power takes over. Now that is a thing of beauty and it never gets old.
 
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VS4ever
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Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Feb 08, 2020 2:54 pm

qf789 wrote:
Cathay Pacific reducing BOS to 5 weekly from 10 Feb 20

Image

https://twitter.com/winglets747/status/ ... 27328?s=20


Well we knew something was going to happen, 5 weekly isn't bad considering, although interesting they are moving capacity to JFK... We'll take it at this point. Asia numbers will take another hit as a result.. oh well.
That feeling when you sit at the end of a runway, brakes are released and the raw power takes over. Now that is a thing of beauty and it never gets old.
 
Dieuwer
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Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Feb 08, 2020 4:54 pm

airbazar wrote:
As I pointed out above, I am driving to JFK to catch a flight to Bali this Summer because it saves me upwards of $300 per ticket depending on class of service. And i'm avoiding flying thru China which would be even cheaper. As an example, Premium Economy on SQ from JFK is cheaper than anything from BOS in Economy and business class can be had for $2600 R/T. Think about that for a second: R/T in J, JFK-SIN-DPS is cheaper than BOS-Europe in J.


Sounds like an opportunity for B6 to provide feed to SQ in JFK, so you can fly BOS-JFK-SIN-DPS ;)
 
NWADC10BOS
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Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Feb 08, 2020 7:29 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
airbazar wrote:
As I pointed out above, I am driving to JFK to catch a flight to Bali this Summer because it saves me upwards of $300 per ticket depending on class of service. And i'm avoiding flying thru China which would be even cheaper. As an example, Premium Economy on SQ from JFK is cheaper than anything from BOS in Economy and business class can be had for $2600 R/T. Think about that for a second: R/T in J, JFK-SIN-DPS is cheaper than BOS-Europe in J.


Sounds like an opportunity for B6 to provide feed to SQ in JFK, so you can fly BOS-JFK-SIN-DPS ;)

They already do - I came back from SIN the long way about a year ago, SIN-FRA-JFK (380 w/stop in FRA, no plane change) connecting to B6 to BOS on an SQ-issued ticket.
 
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mikegigs
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Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Feb 08, 2020 7:35 pm

qf789 wrote:
Cathay Pacific reducing BOS to 5 weekly from 10 Feb 20

Image

https://twitter.com/winglets747/status/ ... 27328?s=20


Not a bad hit at all considering that IAD was cut entirely and NYC went from 32 weekly to 14 (I think I'm reading that right?). Interesting that SEA has no reductions yet. I wonder if moving all their NYC flights to JFK is in preparation for future mandatory screening of all HGK passengers, similar to how all China flights are being routed through those some-7 airports.I know JFK is one of them.

I agree that China flights will bounce back after this is all over, but in no way will it make up for all the lost pax. At least BOS wont be as hurt by this as some west coast airports.
Airports: BOS, JAX, JFK, EWR, LGA, CVG, ATL, CLT, DCA, IAD, STT, PVD, ALB, MCO
Aircraft: 733, 735, 73G, 738, 752, 717, A319, A320, MD-88, E190, E175, E145, CRJ-200, CRJ-700, Q400
Airlines: B6, CO, DL, US, NW, WN, DH
...a good start but a long way to go!
 
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adamh8297
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Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Feb 08, 2020 9:58 pm

NWADC10BOS wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
airbazar wrote:
As I pointed out above, I am driving to JFK to catch a flight to Bali this Summer because it saves me upwards of $300 per ticket depending on class of service. And i'm avoiding flying thru China which would be even cheaper. As an example, Premium Economy on SQ from JFK is cheaper than anything from BOS in Economy and business class can be had for $2600 R/T. Think about that for a second: R/T in J, JFK-SIN-DPS is cheaper than BOS-Europe in J.


Sounds like an opportunity for B6 to provide feed to SQ in JFK, so you can fly BOS-JFK-SIN-DPS ;)

They already do - I came back from SIN the long way about a year ago, SIN-FRA-JFK (380 w/stop in FRA, no plane change) connecting to B6 to BOS on an SQ-issued ticket.



Sometimes these tend to only appear on SQ's site too. They don't appear on some searches like kayak app.
Airlines flown: A3, AA, AC, AF, AM, BA, B6, CA, CO, CX, DL, EA, EL, IB, LH, MI, MQ, NH, NW, NZ, OU, PE, QF, S4, SQ, TP, UA, US, VS, WE, WN

2019: CX BOS-HKG, WE HKG-HKT, CA HKT-PEK-EWR, B6 EWR-BOS
 
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VS4ever
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Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Feb 09, 2020 9:49 pm

OAG changes for this week (credit to enilria for the legwork of course), i've just pulled out the BOS versions. Note B6 for October is partial and not necessarily a true reflection of the final number for that month.

3M BHB-BOS SEP 0.5>2[0.2] OCT 0>0.9[0] - continuation of the season.

AA is all over the place, May sees all cuts (Max related even if indirectly I am sure), June sees the MIA kick that was reported, ORD gets a cut through to November (although Nov is 1 higher than last year, i suspect that will go too.) PHL has a decent kick in the back end of the year, maybe a response to F9's involvement.

AA BOS-DCA MAY 13>10[14]
AA BOS-JFK MAY 5>3[1.2]
AA BOS-LAX MAY 5>4[5]
AA BOS-LGA MAY 11>10[12]
*AA BOS-MIA JUN 7>8[6] JUL 7>8[6]
AA BOS-ORD MAY 9>7[8] SEP 9>8[9] OCT 9>8[9] NOV 9>8[7]
AA BOS-PHL MAY 11>10[11] SEP 11>12[9] OCT 11>12[9] NOV 11>12[10]

It's too much of a pain to remove October, but it's not a full month, so let's concentrate on Septermber, I have removed the routes that did not change Year over Year.

B6 AUA-BOS SEP 0.4>1.6[1.4] OCT 0>1.3[1.6] [increase from 10 weekly to 11 weekly]
B6 AUS-BOS SEP 0.8>3[1.7] OCT 0>2[1.8] [looks the 3 daily will go through September, may even be October when the full month is release]
B6 BNA-BOS SEP 0.5>2[3] OCT 0>2[3] [1 daily removed]
B6 BOS-BUF SEP 0.8>3[4] OCT 0>2[4] [1 daily removed]
B6 BOS-BUR SEP 0.3>1.0[0.6] OCT 0>0.8[0.7] [Increase from 4 weekly to daily]
B6 BOS-CHS SEP 0.6>2[3] OCT 0>1.6[2] [1 daily cut]
B6 BOS-DCA SEP 4>16[13] OCT 0>12[13] [3 daily increase as expected]
B6 BOS-DEN SEP 0.8>3[1.9] OCT 0>2[1.8] [big increase here 13 weekly to 3 daily]
B6 BOS-DFW SEP 0.5>3[1.9] OCT 0>2[1.8] [decent increase here too to 3 daily]
B6 BOS-IAH SEP 0.3>1.0[0] OCT 0>0.8[0.2] [Switch from Hobby is complete, but surely needs more than 1x daily]
B6 BOS-JAX SEP 0.5>1.9[3] OCT 0>1.4[3] [21 weekly down to 13, not great]
B6 BOS-LGA SEP 2>9[5] OCT 0>7[5] [4 daily increase as expected]
B6 BOS-LGB SEP 0.3>1.0[1.0] OCT 0>0.8[1.0] - only notable as it's still there at this point
B6 BOS-MBJ SEP 0.1>0.3[0.1] OCT 0>0.2[0.1] - increase from 1 to 2 weekly
B6 BOS-MSY SEP 0.3>1.7[1.9] OCT 0>1.7[2.0] - 13 weekly to 12.
B6 BOS-PAP SEP 0.2>0.4[0.3] - [increase from 2 to 3 weekly]
B6 BOS-PBI SEP 1.1>4[3] OCT 0>3[4] - [increase of 1 daily]
B6 BOS-PDX SEP 0.5>1.3[1.1] OCT 0>0.8[1.0] - 8 weekly to 9 weekly
B6 BOS-PHX SEP 0.5>1.9[1.0] OCT 0>1.4[1.0] - daily to 13 weekly
B6 BOS-PIT SEP 1.2>5[6] OCT 0>4[6] [1 daily increase]
B6 BOS-SAV SEP 0.3>1.5[1.6] OCT 0>1.4[1.6] [roughly 1 weekly removed]
B6 BOS-SDQ SEP 0.8>1.8[2] OCT 0>0.8[1.5] [roughly 1 weekly removed]
B6 BOS-SEA SEP 0.8>3[1.9] OCT 0>1.5[1.9] [13 weekly to 21]
B6 BOS-SFO SEP 1.6>6[5] OCT 0>5[6] - [1 daily increase]
B6 BOS-SJC SEP 0.5>1.2[0.8] OCT 0>0.8[0.7] - [roughly 6 weekly to 8 weekly]
B6 BOS-SMF SEP 0.3>0.7[0.1] OCT 0>0.5[0] - [longer season i believe on this one]
B6 BOS-SRQ SEP 0>0.7[0.9] OCT 0>0.8[1.0] - [6 weekly down to 5 weekly]
B6 BOS-STI SEP 0.5>1.3[1.2] OCT 0>0.8[1.0] - [roughly 8 weekly to 9 weekly]
B6 BOS-TPA MAY 4>3[4] SEP 0.8>3[4] OCT 0>2[4] - [1 daily increase]

Rough guess is 14 departures a day increase (albeit not perfect alignment) 12 daily increase + 13 weekly increases net.

*HU BOS-PEK MAR 0.7>0.5[0.7] - Suspect this will get cut further next week
*HU BOS-PVG MAR 0.5>0.1[0.6] - same with this one
*LV BOS-ORY APR 0.4>0[0] MAY 0.4>0[0] JUN 0.4>0[0] JUL 0.4>0[0] AUG 0.4>0[0] SEP 0.6>0[0] OCT 0.4>0[0] - what we already knew.
**NK BOS-RDU APR 1.0>0.7[0] MAY 1.0>0[1.0] JUN 1.0>0[1.0] JUL 1.0>0[1.0] AUG 1.0>0[1.0] SEP 0.3>0[0.8] - Guess they blinked first.
That feeling when you sit at the end of a runway, brakes are released and the raw power takes over. Now that is a thing of beauty and it never gets old.
 
PVD757
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Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Feb 09, 2020 11:54 pm

NK’s BOS-RDU load factor for the year ending October 2019 was 79%. F9’s was 82%. Both seem decent so I’m guessing with the added competition, it wasn’t worth keeping for NK.
 
massachoicetts
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Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Feb 10, 2020 12:06 am

A little worried for AA BOS-LHR.. flight starts March 29, 2020 with a capacity of 273 seats.

The first flights from March 29 2020 to April 9 2020 have a combined average of being 12% booked. Thats absurdly low especially when some flights have less than 5 bookings.

These loads dont look so hot with less than 2 months out.

However, AUS bookings are really looking good... with months to go, some flights are more than half booked.
 
aaflyer777
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Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Feb 10, 2020 12:39 am

massachoicetts wrote:
A little worried for AA BOS-LHR.. flight starts March 29, 2020 with a capacity of 273 seats.

The first flights from March 29 2020 to April 9 2020 have a combined average of being 12% booked. Thats absurdly low especially when some flights have less than 5 bookings.

These loads dont look so hot with less than 2 months out.

However, AUS bookings are really looking good... with months to go, some flights are more than half booked.


I wouldn't panic just yet, still plenty of time to sell out that J cabin and thats all that really matters. Bookings on JFK-LHR are about the same and thats a much larger market
 
Ishrion
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Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Feb 10, 2020 12:51 am

massachoicetts wrote:
A little worried for AA BOS-LHR.. flight starts March 29, 2020 with a capacity of 273 seats.

The first flights from March 29 2020 to April 9 2020 have a combined average of being 12% booked. Thats absurdly low especially when some flights have less than 5 bookings.

These loads dont look so hot with less than 2 months out.

However, AUS bookings are really looking good... with months to go, some flights are more than half booked.


Eh, it usually picks up in a few weeks.

The inaugural AA CLT-MUC flight went out for the first few days at around a 30-40% LF.
 
Ishrion
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Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Feb 10, 2020 7:38 am

AA's BOS-EYW, which starts this Saturday, appears to have 2 First Class seats left and 0 Economy seats per aa.com

The return flight appears to have some more open.
 
massachoicetts
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Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Feb 10, 2020 6:03 pm

BOS-CUN,EYW,PUJ,MBJ flights are all very heavy.. which makes sense since they are mostly leisure and EYW isnt served. But loads look great.
 
Nicknuzzii
Posts: 441
Joined: Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:57 pm

Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Feb 10, 2020 8:00 pm

Ishrion wrote:
massachoicetts wrote:
A little worried for AA BOS-LHR.. flight starts March 29, 2020 with a capacity of 273 seats.

The first flights from March 29 2020 to April 9 2020 have a combined average of being 12% booked. Thats absurdly low especially when some flights have less than 5 bookings.

These loads dont look so hot with less than 2 months out.

However, AUS bookings are really looking good... with months to go, some flights are more than half booked.


Eh, it usually picks up in a few weeks.

The inaugural AA CLT-MUC flight went out for the first few days at around a 30-40% LF.


From what I heard that CLT-MUC route is still not meeting expectations.
 
stratacruiser
Posts: 234
Joined: Thu Dec 08, 2011 7:07 pm

Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Feb 10, 2020 8:06 pm

It appears UA951 (BRU-IAD) has diverted to BOS, landing at 1346. The UA app shows scheduled departure time of 1450 for IAD, although departure hasn’t been posted as yet. Can anyone shed some light on the cause? Aircraft is 777-200 N217UA.

Dave
 
RL757PVD
Posts: 3142
Joined: Fri Dec 03, 1999 2:47 am

Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Feb 11, 2020 1:21 am

I know there's some detractors from the "Boston-London" bloodbath argument but I found this interesting/alarming.... basic economy fare breakdown for April:

Adult (per passenger) $81.00 USD
CARRIER-IMPOSED FEES $130.00 USD
PASSENGER FACILITY CHARGE (UNITED STATES) $4.50 USD
TRANSPORTATION TAX (UNITED STATES) $37.80 USD
US APHIS USER FEE (UNITED STATES) $3.96 USD
US CUSTOMS USER FEE (UNITED STATES) $5.89 USD
US FEDERAL INSPECTION FEE (UNITED STATES) $7.00 USD
US SECURITY FEE (UNITED STATES) $5.60 USD
AIR PASSENGER DUTY (APD) (UNITED KINGDOM) $103.70 USD
PASSENGER SERVICE CHARGE (UNITED KINGDOM) $63.10 USD
Total $442.55 USD per person

AA's Fare - $40.50 each way...
Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
 
VS11
Posts: 1519
Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2001 6:34 am

Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Feb 11, 2020 1:30 am

RL757PVD wrote:
I know there's some detractors from the "Boston-London" bloodbath argument but I found this interesting/alarming.... basic economy fare breakdown for April:

Adult (per passenger) $81.00 USD
CARRIER-IMPOSED FEES $130.00 USD
PASSENGER FACILITY CHARGE (UNITED STATES) $4.50 USD
TRANSPORTATION TAX (UNITED STATES) $37.80 USD
US APHIS USER FEE (UNITED STATES) $3.96 USD
US CUSTOMS USER FEE (UNITED STATES) $5.89 USD
US FEDERAL INSPECTION FEE (UNITED STATES) $7.00 USD
US SECURITY FEE (UNITED STATES) $5.60 USD
AIR PASSENGER DUTY (APD) (UNITED KINGDOM) $103.70 USD
PASSENGER SERVICE CHARGE (UNITED KINGDOM) $63.10 USD
Total $442.55 USD per person

AA's Fare - $40.50 each way...


You missed the carrier-imposed fee which goes straight to carrier. I have always had issues with this fee as it is not covered if you redeem miles. Basically, redeeming miles to London is a waste of miles. BA dumps tons of cheap capacity with their 747s so these fares are not surprising. Same story with JFK.
 
RL757PVD
Posts: 3142
Joined: Fri Dec 03, 1999 2:47 am

Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Feb 11, 2020 1:35 am

VS11 wrote:

You missed the carrier-imposed fee which goes straight to carrier. I have always had issues with this fee as it is not covered if you redeem miles. Basically, redeeming miles to London is a waste of miles. BA dumps tons of cheap capacity with their 747s so these fares are not surprising. Same story with JFK.


So a whopping $105 each way, aka $0.03 per mile

Whats crazy is that means an AAdvantage member would earn 202 Miles for that round trip ticket...
Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
 
VS11
Posts: 1519
Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2001 6:34 am

Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Feb 11, 2020 1:53 am

RL757PVD wrote:
VS11 wrote:

You missed the carrier-imposed fee which goes straight to carrier. I have always had issues with this fee as it is not covered if you redeem miles. Basically, redeeming miles to London is a waste of miles. BA dumps tons of cheap capacity with their 747s so these fares are not surprising. Same story with JFK.


So a whopping $105 each way, aka $0.03 per mile

Whats crazy is that means an AAdvantage member would earn 202 Miles for that round trip ticket...


I flew JFK-LHR-JFK last May and got 1290 award miles. Way less than what I expected. It was an AA ticket on BA. I chose the 747 flights just because they are on the way out but they sure were packed!
 
33lspotter
Posts: 547
Joined: Tue Jul 22, 2014 2:37 pm

Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Feb 11, 2020 2:04 am

BA112 (744, JFK-LHR) stole the headlines with its quite-ridiculous 4:54 clocking on 2/8, but BA212 (744, BOS-LHR) was even quicker on that same night, reaching LHR in 4:46 (even if traveling 185 miles fewer). In 2014, I was on BA212 (also a 744) and we did 5:25, which I thought was moving!
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