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airbazar
Posts: 10079
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:12 pm

Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Apr 29, 2020 12:42 pm

EADSYABSOB73857 wrote:
airbazar wrote:
iyerhari wrote:
I personally feel nobody knows what and where the direction is? In the sense, it could be the genesis of a new airline industry taking a different shape and maybe in the future it is business as usual OR who knows. I truly appreciate everything that enilrea does but the situation is so bad that nobody knows especially with airline industry.

Personally I don't think anything is going to change, just like nothing changed after SARS or after either of the previous Coronavirus outbreaks (MERS). At some point there will be both a vaccine and more efficient treatment and people will forget all about this and move on with their lives. The only changes I see coming out of this are laws and regulations regarding health care and Pandemic preparation which would have a financial impact to airlines (and every other business), but non-impacting for the passenger.


My emotions are extremely mixed on this- while I agree with the notion that it won’t be as impactful as the global community is anticipating; with SARS and MERS there wasn’t a global economic shutdown to the level the world is currently dealing with; so I think it will be MUCH DIFFERENT than those situations by a landslide, for those reasons alone. I hate to admit, Boston will see unprecedented cuts and some of the service announcements for 2020 may never come back.


All true but I was addressing the statement that we'll see "a new airline industry". I don't think we'll see any industry changes that will change the passenger experience.
I've also been one of the most bullish people on this forum regarding the impact to the industry and even the economy in general. I think passenger numbers will come back quite fast, probably within 2-3 years. By comparison it took us 10 years to recover from the post-9/11 crash. And as for the service announcements, a lot will depend on which airlines survive this recession.
 
RL757PVD
Posts: 3173
Joined: Fri Dec 03, 1999 2:47 am

Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Apr 29, 2020 1:26 pm

2-3 Years is extremely optimistic, this is far worse than 9/11 was from a demand perspective. I don't think you will see 2019 levels for at least 5 years. If there's a second wave in the fall, I suspect we will have at least 2 fewer major airlines (the big 4 likely intact) as result of mergers and/or liquidation.

International service will be the hardest hit and last thing to return to pre-corona levels.

On a related Massport note, I wouldn't be surprised if ORH loses all service as result, there will be no appetite for goodwill
Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
 
iyerhari
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Joined: Sat Jun 01, 2013 4:25 pm

Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Apr 29, 2020 3:24 pm

Smaller airports IMO will be extremely hard hit as airlines consolidate services - as-is there is less demand and hopefully when things gradually pick-up slow, it would be the airports like Logan where airlines will focus till operations are stabilized. Business travel has completely collapsed and clients are using new tools such as ZOOM, Skype etc. This is also a new way of working which implies there is no need to travel every week - there are some times where you absolutely need to travel but it may not be a need for every week. 2008 recession wasn't this bad - there was still demand.
 
B752OS
Posts: 1234
Joined: Thu Dec 22, 2005 4:05 am

Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Apr 29, 2020 3:50 pm

RL757PVD wrote:
2-3 Years is extremely optimistic, this is far worse than 9/11 was from a demand perspective. I don't think you will see 2019 levels for at least 5 years. If there's a second wave in the fall, I suspect we will have at least 2 fewer major airlines (the big 4 likely intact) as result of mergers and/or liquidation.

International service will be the hardest hit and last thing to return to pre-corona levels.

On a related Massport note, I wouldn't be surprised if ORH loses all service as result, there will be no appetite for goodwill


It's going to be very interesting to see what happens in 2021, as 2020 is shot and I doubt we'll see anything major happen this year. I wonder if Massport will take advantage of the lighter traffic in Terminal E and try and speed up the expansion project?

Boston is in the same boat as pretty much everywhere else. Traffic won't rebound until 2023.
 
FGITD
Posts: 805
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 1:44 pm

Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Apr 29, 2020 4:11 pm

B752OS wrote:
RL757PVD wrote:
2-3 Years is extremely optimistic, this is far worse than 9/11 was from a demand perspective. I don't think you will see 2019 levels for at least 5 years. If there's a second wave in the fall, I suspect we will have at least 2 fewer major airlines (the big 4 likely intact) as result of mergers and/or liquidation.

International service will be the hardest hit and last thing to return to pre-corona levels.

On a related Massport note, I wouldn't be surprised if ORH loses all service as result, there will be no appetite for goodwill


It's going to be very interesting to see what happens in 2021, as 2020 is shot and I doubt we'll see anything major happen this year. I wonder if Massport will take advantage of the lighter traffic in Terminal E and try and speed up the expansion project?

Boston is in the same boat as pretty much everywhere else. Traffic won't rebound until 2023.


As far as I can tell, Massport has definitely been working hard on the expansion. At the very least, they're working during the day which is uncommon for these projects. Usually come noon, they're done for the day.

I agree with the notion that service will be consolidated for awhile while expenses and demand are reigned in.

Internationally...who knows? No way we're seeing those 380s for awhile. Some of the seasonal/newer entrants to BOS will most likely not even come back, at least not for a little while. Unfortunately we really won't know until at least next summer, as most airlines will probably take the autumn/winter to regroup and organize themselves going forward.

It's really a shame, given how things were moving forward so quickly.
 
RL757PVD
Posts: 3173
Joined: Fri Dec 03, 1999 2:47 am

Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Apr 29, 2020 4:31 pm

My gut tells me Summer 2021 International will be at MOST 75% of what what planned for this summer.

As far as Terminal E goes, this would be a good time to do any disruptive portions of the project to enhance and expedite project delivery.

The other side of the Terminal E coin, is what do the rates and charges look like in a post $1 Billion spent environment on millions of less passengers. Most costs were slated to increase 25-50% over the next 5 years as it was.
Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
 
iyerhari
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Joined: Sat Jun 01, 2013 4:25 pm

Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Apr 29, 2020 6:24 pm

And when you have news like comes like this: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/live- ... spartanntp

Implies there is no light at this time at the end of tunnel at this time.
 
airbazar
Posts: 10079
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:12 pm

Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Apr 29, 2020 8:59 pm

RL757PVD wrote:
2-3 Years is extremely optimistic, this is far worse than 9/11 was from a demand perspective. I don't think you will see 2019 levels for at least 5 years. If there's a second wave in the fall, I suspect we will have at least 2 fewer major airlines (the big 4 likely intact) as result of mergers and/or liquidation.

Call me optimistic then :)
I don't believe this is far worse than what followed 9/11. In the very short term yes it is, but this will pass far quicker. The recession that followed 9/11 was caused by the dot-com bubble bursting which put a lot of highly paid people out of a job, myself included. The loss of jobs during this Pandemic is not due to some underlying economic collapse and a lot of the job losses this time around are predominantly low paying jobs such as folks in the service industry. It's merely because businesses aren't allowed to stay open. I just started a brand new job 2 weeks ago and my company can't hire highly qualified people fast enough right now. The financial sector, the tech sector, the life-sciences sector, are all still very much alive and kicking and as soon as we start to open up, the economy will rebound quite fast IMO.

The financial side of things are a completely different story. Traffic may come back fast enough but profits won't. For starters we're going to have to pay for all the money being dished out right now. That's 3 trillion $ at last count IIRC. I suspect taxes are going to go up for everyone and profits will suffer for a long time. But travel demand, I think that will be back fairly quick.

iyerhari wrote:
And when you have news like comes like this: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/live- ... spartanntp
Implies there is no light at this time at the end of tunnel at this time.

There will be a wave 2, that's a given. I don't need Dr. Fauci's fear mongering to know that.
And there is light at the end of the tunnel, with or without a wave 2. That light is all the work being done to develop treatment medication and a vaccine. I have full confidence that at the very least we'll be better prepared by next Fall to handle a second wave without massive closures. We may even have an effective medical treatment.
 
RL757PVD
Posts: 3173
Joined: Fri Dec 03, 1999 2:47 am

Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Apr 30, 2020 12:40 am

airbazar wrote:
Call me optimistic then :)
I don't believe this is far worse than what followed 9/11. In the very short term yes it is, but this will pass far quicker. .


The difference compared to 9/11 is after 9/11 the airlines were flying again within a week and demand was generally back within a couple months.

By the time there is any semblance of demand again, the airlines will have been operating for nearly 3 whole months with zero demand. You have to wonder if they would have actually preferred ATC-Zero during this time.

As for the economy, some can still work, but conferences, trade shows, and conventions will be canceled for much of the year, amusement parks will remain closed, and major tourist areas will be avoided. The lost income in these segments and a shift from spending to saving, for those of us who can still work based on the economic uncertainty ahead will impact 2021 demand.

My optimistic view - a 40% drop in passengers for 2020 and 2021 levels greater than 80% of 2019 will be considered outperforming the pack.
Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
 
EADSYABSOB73857
Posts: 69
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Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri May 01, 2020 7:31 am

RL757PVD wrote:
airbazar wrote:
Call me optimistic then :)
I don't believe this is far worse than what followed 9/11. In the very short term yes it is, but this will pass far quicker. .


The difference compared to 9/11 is after 9/11 the airlines were flying again within a week and demand was generally back within a couple months.


Um... That's not true at all... It took over a year for normal traffic demand to come back. Can someone else please chime in here and back me up?? This borders on fake news.
 
RL757PVD
Posts: 3173
Joined: Fri Dec 03, 1999 2:47 am

Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri May 01, 2020 1:08 pm

EADSYABSOB73857 wrote:
RL757PVD wrote:
airbazar wrote:
Call me optimistic then :)
I don't believe this is far worse than what followed 9/11. In the very short term yes it is, but this will pass far quicker. .


The difference compared to 9/11 is after 9/11 the airlines were flying again within a week and demand was generally back within a couple months.


Um... That's not true at all... It took over a year for normal traffic demand to come back. Can someone else please chime in here and back me up?? This borders on fake news.


2002 vs 2001

https://www.faa.gov/airports/planning_c ... rimary.pdf
Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
 
airbazar
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Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:12 pm

Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri May 01, 2020 1:43 pm

RL757PVD wrote:
EADSYABSOB73857 wrote:
RL757PVD wrote:

The difference compared to 9/11 is after 9/11 the airlines were flying again within a week and demand was generally back within a couple months.


Um... That's not true at all... It took over a year for normal traffic demand to come back. Can someone else please chime in here and back me up?? This borders on fake news.


2002 vs 2001

https://www.faa.gov/airports/planning_c ... rimary.pdf


For BOS in particular, it took 6 years for passenger numbers to return to pre-9/11 numbers and 4 years to recover from the 2008 recession. This is from Massport's website.
http://massport.com/logan-airport/about ... tatistics/
2000 27,726,833 High
2002 22,696,141 Low
2006 27,725,443 High
2007 28,102,455 High
2009 25,512,086 Low
2011 28,907,938

Again this is just my opinion and I'm not an expert but I think this recovery will be faster. Everyone I know can't wait to go on vacation. There will be a huge amount of burnout from the quarantine and people will want to take a vacation. IMO there is also significant pent-up demand for people to go see loved ones who live far away.
Of course all of this is dependent on how quickly people become reasonably comfortable with the virus but given what I saw last Sunday at the beach and on my street, officials will have a very hard time containing the population as soon as the weather turns warm.
 
Nicknuzzii
Posts: 980
Joined: Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:57 pm

Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri May 01, 2020 2:02 pm

airbazar wrote:
RL757PVD wrote:
EADSYABSOB73857 wrote:

Um... That's not true at all... It took over a year for normal traffic demand to come back. Can someone else please chime in here and back me up?? This borders on fake news.


2002 vs 2001

https://www.faa.gov/airports/planning_c ... rimary.pdf


For BOS in particular, it took 6 years for passenger numbers to return to pre-9/11 numbers and 4 years to recover from the 2008 recession. This is from Massport's website.
http://massport.com/logan-airport/about ... tatistics/
2000 27,726,833 High
2002 22,696,141 Low
2006 27,725,443 High
2007 28,102,455 High
2009 25,512,086 Low
2011 28,907,938

Again this is just my opinion and I'm not an expert but I think this recovery will be faster. Everyone I know can't wait to go on vacation. There will be a huge amount of burnout from the quarantine and people will want to take a vacation. IMO there is also significant pent-up demand for people to go see loved ones who live far away.
Of course all of this is dependent on how quickly people become reasonably comfortable with the virus but given what I saw last Sunday at the beach and on my street, officials will have a very hard time containing the population as soon as the weather turns warm.


I agree that this recovery will be quicker mostly because it is a completely different scenario. Even in my very blue state there are big pushes to get out. Lots around here are just postponing their vacations and aren’t cancelling. Another thing to remember is that the airports who had flights on 9/11 took the longest to recover. BOS, EWR, IAD shouldn’t be signaled out in this recovery.
 
RL757PVD
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Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri May 01, 2020 2:35 pm

I'll stick with my prediction of down 35-40% for 2020 and down 15-20% from 2019 for 2021. The primary cause is the connecting traffic and feed for international flights that helps to boost numbers having the inverse impact during a decline.
Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
 
Nicknuzzii
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Joined: Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:57 pm

Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri May 01, 2020 3:08 pm

RL757PVD wrote:
I'll stick with my prediction of down 35-40% for 2020 and down 15-20% from 2019 for 2021. The primary cause is the connecting traffic and feed for international flights that helps to boost numbers having the inverse impact during a decline.


These numbers seem about fair but I’m hoping a bit higher for 2021. Hopefully by Q3 2021 we are only around 5-10% down.
 
iyerhari
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Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat May 02, 2020 3:16 pm

tphuang wrote:
iyerhari wrote:
I had a reservation on DL from BOS-LGW and returning CDG-BOS on June-19. I checked my reservation and the itinerary shows on-schedule. I know everything is up in the air - Where did you get the info on the cancels?

I would expect that CDG-BOS would get canceled too. If you can wait a month, they will cancel your reservation most likely and possibly give you full refund. If you do the cancel, you are stuck with travel bank.

DL automatically changed my flight to LHR. At this time looks like the flight is departing :( so I will only get the money to my travel bank. I have a 5 year old kid and not worth the risk at this time.
 
tphuang
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Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat May 02, 2020 3:27 pm

iyerhari wrote:
tphuang wrote:
iyerhari wrote:
I had a reservation on DL from BOS-LGW and returning CDG-BOS on June-19. I checked my reservation and the itinerary shows on-schedule. I know everything is up in the air - Where did you get the info on the cancels?

I would expect that CDG-BOS would get canceled too. If you can wait a month, they will cancel your reservation most likely and possibly give you full refund. If you do the cancel, you are stuck with travel bank.

DL automatically changed my flight to LHR. At this time looks like the flight is departing :( so I will only get the money to my travel bank. I have a 5 year old kid and not worth the risk at this time.

sorry to hear that. I think if you wait another 3 to 4 weeks, BOS-LHR will get canceled too. Right now, VS seems to only be canceling their flights 3 weeks ahead of time and DL will probably make its June cuts in mid May. I'd expect their LHR schedule to just be JFK/ATL for the next couple of months.
 
RL757PVD
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Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat May 02, 2020 8:05 pm

Delta is rolling out their June schedule over the next two weeks so I’d wait to see what that brings. I would expect June to be down about 50% in terms of capacity
Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
 
tphuang
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Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun May 03, 2020 12:09 pm

iyerhari wrote:
tphuang wrote:
iyerhari wrote:
I had a reservation on DL from BOS-LGW and returning CDG-BOS on June-19. I checked my reservation and the itinerary shows on-schedule. I know everything is up in the air - Where did you get the info on the cancels?

I would expect that CDG-BOS would get canceled too. If you can wait a month, they will cancel your reservation most likely and possibly give you full refund. If you do the cancel, you are stuck with travel bank.

DL automatically changed my flight to LHR. At this time looks like the flight is departing :( so I will only get the money to my travel bank. I have a 5 year old kid and not worth the risk at this time.

It looks like they have now cut all the Europe stuff for June.
 
iyerhari
Posts: 1085
Joined: Sat Jun 01, 2013 4:25 pm

Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun May 03, 2020 1:33 pm

tphuang wrote:
It looks like they have now cut all the Europe stuff for June.

Thank you. I looked up my itinerary and it still shows on schedule with the LHR change. Probably it takes a day/two to update existing reservations. Thank you.
 
airbazar
Posts: 10079
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:12 pm

Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon May 04, 2020 1:54 am

RL757PVD wrote:
I'll stick with my prediction of down 35-40% for 2020 and down 15-20% from 2019 for 2021. The primary cause is the connecting traffic and feed for international flights that helps to boost numbers having the inverse impact during a decline.

wow, and i thought I was optimistic. 2021 is only a year from now, if we're only down 15% that's pretty good considering we're down 95% now.
 
FGITD
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Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed May 06, 2020 2:38 am

I've been hearing some ideas that a few of the European carriers might be coming back to operate cargo only flights. Might not be the service we want to see, but at the very least it’s a few international carriers in town, and in some cases hopefully keeps some people in jobs
 
jsteeves3
Posts: 97
Joined: Sat Jan 06, 2018 7:00 pm

Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed May 06, 2020 10:45 pm

Did this for comparison when Mar.- loads come out...
Note this is just to provide some entertainment and something for me to do, I do know that lots of service will most likely be lost, decided to post this instead of just keep if for myself to give other people something to look through. Thanks for understanding in advance!

*All Loads are one way BOS-XYZ*
Keep in mind these loads are all from October 2019, just coming out of peak season so numbers may be a little lower than normal, also this is just outbound numbers from BOS.

Boston Domestic/Canada Routes by Airline October 2019 (all routes combined, MAINLINE only)

Setup:
Airline
Load
Notes

Alaska Airlines
89%
Very solid, was not expecting this high

American Airlines
83%
AA actually has more mainline flights than DL at this point, solid number

Delta Air Lines
86%
Solid, not much to say here

Frontier Airlines
87%
Seems like F9 fits right in, very good number for being so new

Hawaiian Airlines
77%
This is okay, I know numbers are all over the place on this list from 55%-95%, this should denitely stay after COVID is over given it's lesuire

JetBlue
82%
Normal and expected given their whole market is mainline, expected for it to be a little below DL because of the planes they fly

Southwest Airlines
83%
This month just 29 flights a day, they have 5 gates in BOS, could do a whole lot more if they wanted too. I think they have to pick if they want a sizable presence her or if they just want it to be a normal sized spoke, time will tell

Spirit Airlines
88%
Great from NK, around 13 flights a day. Hope we continue to see them grow even after all of this

United Airlines
83%
58 flights on mainline, that's a lot. Thought it was more like 42, great!

Air Canada
87%
Great. Note this is just mainline YYZ

Porter Airlines
66%
Oh. Thought this would be better considering it is one of the most frequent destinations for Porter

WestJet
86%
Solid. This is for Encore brand. Expected this to be worse considering they dropped YHZ


Boston (BOS) International Loads October 2019
*No Carribean, Mexico etc. unless listed*

Aer Lingus
DUB 96%
SNN 75%
Still 2 daily for DUB, this is incredible for Oct! As for SNN, this must be when the season ends, still a good load for that type of destination.

Air France
CDG 87%
Wonder if this would ever go 2x year round if traffic ever rebounds

Alitalia
FCO 80%
Average, pretty sure this is one of the most full flights in their system especially in the summer when its closer to 90%

Azores Airlines
PDL 80%
TER 30%
Great for PDL considering it is daily, as for TER only 4 a month so maybe seasonal would be better?

British Airways
LHR 80%
Expecting a little higher... average

Cabo Verde Airlines
RAI 69%
Expect it to stay, lifeline to Cabo Verde, 1x week

Cathay Pacific
HKG 80%
One of the lower loads we have seen but it should last hopefully

Copa Airlines
91%
Great load for CM. Was just released that BOS would not be one of the first destinations to return after they restart operations. Was looped in with more lesuire routes. Interesting...

Delta Air Lines
AMS 83%
LHR 88%
CDG 90%
DUB 70%
Last flights for DUB season except for a few over Christmas, I think it could become year round in the long run. Everything else solid, CDG makes sense going 2x daily given the high load. Wonder if that will ever happen after all of this passes.

El Al
TLV 84%
I know they only have a handful of flights per month but this is a solid load. With this performance they should not be pulling out, definitely one of their better months

Emirates
DXB 91%
High as always, would say why not a380 if no COVID

Hainan Airlines
PEK 78%
PVG 66%
Now these are two routes I do not see staying at their frequencies even without the whole pandemic, who knows if HU will even last

Iberia
MAD 80%
Average, not much to say

Icelandair
KEF 90%
BOS has to be pretty much the best of the U.S routes, always up there even in slower months

Japan Airlines
NRT 86%
Little lower than expected, want them to try a 77W but highly unlikely now

KLM
AMS 83%
Same load as DL, seem to be doing just fine in BOS, hopefully they stay and don't go back to just DL on AMS

Korean Air
ICN 84%
They were supposed to start with a 77W in March, I think they could get back to that point considering the great load factor on such a new route

LATAM Brasil
GRU 91%
Amazing, hopefully in a few years something like the 77W will pop in

LEVEL
BCN 75%
Definitely one of the biggest jumps in % from summer as this is a highly lesuire route, could revert to seasonal in the future again

Lufthansa
FRA 84%
MUC 83%
Solid, nothing about them are surprising

Norwegian Air International
LGW 85%
MAD 75%
CDG 77%
FCO 63%
Not horrible but not good. Last month for seasonals (MAD, CDG, and FCO). I think CDG could have made it year round but we now know that that would be crazy to think now due to their future plans

Qatar Airways
DOH 87%
.

Royal Air Maroc
CMN 46%
Yikes, only a few flights in and this doesn't look good. I don't expect this to ever return in the next few years

Scandinavian Airlines
CPH 62%
321 is a way better plane for the route, loads have been worse than this though

SWISS
ZRH 83%
As this is still 2x, makes me think why don't they just add GVA already? I know this is ridiculous until a few years from now but doesn't sound like a bad idea down the road...

TAP Air Portugal
LIS 80%
Ehh, could be better but still okay overall

Turkish Airlines
IST 85%
Solid, 77W should have been here by now but once again that is out a few years at least now

Virgin Atlantic
LHR 75%
2 daily took a hit but predictable overall

wow that took a long time
sorry for the long post but wanted to provide something to look through and look back on in the coming months!
 
SRGVA67
Posts: 23
Joined: Sun Nov 24, 2019 9:12 am

Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu May 07, 2020 6:41 am

SWISS
ZRH 83%
As this is still 2x, makes me think why don't they just add GVA already? I know this is ridiculous until a few years from now but doesn't sound like a bad idea down the road...

I agree that it is in a way ridiculous to speculate these days on potential future services, but I can assure you that if LX ever feels a need for increased capacity between Switzerland and BOS, they rather add a 3rd flight from ZRH than operating from GVA. While everything else in aviation is uncertain these days, this is the one thing that remains certain. :(
 
FGITD
Posts: 805
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 1:44 pm

Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue May 12, 2020 11:48 pm

Well for those spotters out there bored of watching the same 5 airplanes into BOS every day, it would appear that tomorrow there will be a KL 772 coming in, and later this week an AF 789.
 
jworks158
Posts: 390
Joined: Mon Jun 26, 2017 5:02 pm

Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed May 13, 2020 8:07 pm

FGITD wrote:
Well for those spotters out there bored of watching the same 5 airplanes into BOS every day, it would appear that tomorrow there will be a KL 772 coming in, and later this week an AF 789.


I believe from some documents I have seen this will be:

Twice weekly KL 772 doing a cargo run till July 1st Arrives WED & SAT, Departs THURS & SUN

Once weekly AF 789.

Both will overnight in BOS for around 24hrs.
(A359,A343/A346,A332,A319/320/321,A220-100)(B788,B772,B762,B752,B744/B748,B732/B737/B738,B717)(E190,E145)(CRJ100/200, Dash 8-200)(MD-83)
JB,UA(C5,EV,CHQ,AX),AA(EGF,ZW,AX,PT),DL(OH,YX),FL,WN,LH,BA,AF,AZ,IB,VX,CO
https://my.flightradar24.com/theorangetechie
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2326
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue May 19, 2020 5:14 pm

DL runs the occasional BOS-AMS in July.
 
airbazar
Posts: 10079
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:12 pm

Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed May 20, 2020 11:52 am

Dieuwer wrote:
DL runs the occasional BOS-AMS in July.

They are restarting some routes in June so hopefully by July we'll see some BOS adds.
https://news.delta.com/where-delta-flying-june-updated
At the end of the day it will come down to how soon Europe decides to open up borders to travelers from the U.S. I was hoping this would happen in June but it's not looking very likely.
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2326
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed May 20, 2020 7:18 pm

Any news about CX and KE permanently terminating BOS??
 
iyerhari
Posts: 1085
Joined: Sat Jun 01, 2013 4:25 pm

Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun May 24, 2020 1:41 pm

BOS Apr-2020 numbers. There is honestly no commentary needed.

Apr-20 Apr-19 Difference
Domestic Charter Passenger
Domestic Commuter Passenger 4,101 215,487 -98.10%
Domestic Jet Passenger 84,146 2,699,361 -96.88%
Total Domestic Passengers 88,247 2,914,848 -96.97%

International
Bermuda/Bahamas/Caribbean 3,049 133,587 -97.72%
Canada 385 84,260 -99.54%
Central America 9 39,752 -99.98%
Europe 1,751 338,523 -99.48%
Middle East 0 53,293 -100.00%
South America 277 9,187 -96.98%
Trans-Pacific 372 48,557 -99.23%
North Africa 0 0 #DIV/0!
Total International passengers 5,843 707,159 -99.17%

General Aviation 1,262 9,670 -86.95%
Total Airport pax 95,352 3,631,677 -97.37%

YTD 2020 total pax: 7,559,689
YTD 2019 total pax: 12,528,438
AAGR YTD: -39.7%
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2326
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon May 25, 2020 2:50 am

I have noticed that EK has scheduled the A380 for Boston. Do they expect that quick of a rebound in demand?
 
FGITD
Posts: 805
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 1:44 pm

Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon May 25, 2020 3:40 am

Ouch. Those numbers are brutal to see. Not unsurprising, given that you can cross the entire airport without seeing a single aircraft moving, or for that matter a single passenger. But to see the numbers just drives it home.

Until now I haven't heard or read about any airlines officially canceling service, and I'd be very surprised to see EK still fly in an a380. But I'm fairly confident that July will be a better month.
 
jsteeves3
Posts: 97
Joined: Sat Jan 06, 2018 7:00 pm

Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue May 26, 2020 4:16 pm

AA has filed for BOS-JAC starting on Dec. 19th 1x Saturday only starting on December 19th-April 3rd
AA2519 9:10am-1:05pm 319
AA2519 1:45pm-8:51pm 319

Looks to me like they are trying to not give up on BOS yet. I actually think this route is smart due to it not being served already and it is leisure focused. I imagine we will see many more new routes across the U.S. not just from BOS to leisure oriented destinations until business travel restores. Seems like a smart move considering when it is safe to travel, many American will want to go on vacations.
 
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ChrisNH38
Posts: 242
Joined: Fri Sep 06, 2019 10:53 pm

Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue May 26, 2020 4:19 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
I have noticed that EK has scheduled the A380 for Boston. Do they expect that quick of a rebound in demand?

With QR not showing any signs of coming back nearly as quickly, EK has the Middle East to itself. That might be some (or all) of it.
https://my.flightradar24.com/ChrisNH
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2326
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue May 26, 2020 4:19 pm

jsteeves3 wrote:
AA has filed for BOS-JAC starting on Dec. 19th 1x Saturday only starting on December 19th-April 3rd
AA2519 9:10am-1:05pm 319
AA2519 1:45pm-8:51pm 319

Looks to me like they are trying to not give up on BOS yet. I actually think this route is smart due to it not being served already and it is leisure focused. I imagine we will see many more new routes across the U.S. not just from BOS to leisure oriented destinations until business travel restores. Seems like a smart move considering when it is safe to travel, many American will want to go on vacations.


Ha! Seems like an eye poke regarding B6 BOS-HDN.
 
airbazar
Posts: 10079
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:12 pm

Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue May 26, 2020 4:32 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
jsteeves3 wrote:
AA has filed for BOS-JAC starting on Dec. 19th 1x Saturday only starting on December 19th-April 3rd
AA2519 9:10am-1:05pm 319
AA2519 1:45pm-8:51pm 319

Looks to me like they are trying to not give up on BOS yet. I actually think this route is smart due to it not being served already and it is leisure focused. I imagine we will see many more new routes across the U.S. not just from BOS to leisure oriented destinations until business travel restores. Seems like a smart move considering when it is safe to travel, many American will want to go on vacations.


Ha! Seems like an eye poke regarding B6 BOS-HDN.


Aaargh, December is too late for me. Funny how just yesterday I was pricing out a trip to Montana/Wyoming for July and was surprised to see that B6's non-stop BOS-BZN is still bookable.
Unlike HDN and BZN, B6 has no aircraft capable of operating out of JAC to the East Coast, which is why you haven't seen it added. I don't know if the A220 will change that.
 
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adamh8297
Posts: 3209
Joined: Sat Dec 15, 2012 6:28 pm

Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue May 26, 2020 4:51 pm

Now I've seen it all - a ski route launched during a pandemic!!!!


That being said - in the long term could niche domestic routes such as JAC/BZN/HDN have more staying power with a population more hesitant to leave the USA?

I wonder if summer RAP (Mt. Rushmore, Deadwood, Sturgis) could be in the cards too. There are many tours that start in RAP and end in BZN or even further south to SLC.
Airlines flown: A3, AA, AC, AF, AM, BA, B6, CA, CO, CX, DL, EA, EL, IB, LH, MI, MQ, NH, NW, NZ, OU, PE, QF, S4, SQ, TP, UA, US, VS, WE, WN

2019: CX BOS-HKG, WE HKG-HKT, CA HKT-PEK-EWR, B6 EWR-BOS
 
jworks158
Posts: 390
Joined: Mon Jun 26, 2017 5:02 pm

Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue May 26, 2020 5:10 pm

ChrisNH38 wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
I have noticed that EK has scheduled the A380 for Boston. Do they expect that quick of a rebound in demand?

With QR not showing any signs of coming back nearly as quickly, EK has the Middle East to itself. That might be some (or all) of it.


QR is planning 3 weekly 359 from July 1st.
https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/airlineroute/291190/update-as-of-0900gmt-10may20-qatar-airways-jun-aug-2020-operations-ns20-network-suspensions/
(A359,A343/A346,A332,A319/320/321,A220-100)(B788,B772,B762,B752,B744/B748,B732/B737/B738,B717)(E190,E145)(CRJ100/200, Dash 8-200)(MD-83)
JB,UA(C5,EV,CHQ,AX),AA(EGF,ZW,AX,PT),DL(OH,YX),FL,WN,LH,BA,AF,AZ,IB,VX,CO
https://my.flightradar24.com/theorangetechie
 
clrd4t8koff
Posts: 1643
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2005 3:57 am

Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Jun 02, 2020 8:44 pm

Flew out of BOS today for the first time since early March. Total ghost town practically.

What really blew my mind was how abandoned terminal A was. I flew out on AA and they had 8-9 planes at terminal B. UA had 2 planes, WN had 2 planes, B6 too many to count and even AS had 1 flight at the gate. DL had...ZERO planes at 9:30am. Both the main terminal A and the concourse terminal were completely empty. How can an airline that was going full throttle on building out a BOS hub abandon it to the extent they have? Every other major US carrier had a presence except DL. It blows my mind how fast they cancelled practically all BOS service. DL has a 14 flights from BOS today (ATL 3x, DTW 3x, MSP 2x, 3x LGA, 2x JFK, SLC 1x). There used to be almost that many flights a day to ATL alone! I understand business travel is bust, but why did they abandon FL flying when leisure travel is rapidly increasing?

On a separate note there was an EI A321 at terminal E. What would it be doing there at 9:30am? Does it RON and depart back in the morning?
 
FGITD
Posts: 805
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 1:44 pm

Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Jun 02, 2020 9:11 pm

clrd4t8koff wrote:
Flew out of BOS today for the first time since early March. Total ghost town practically.

What really blew my mind was how abandoned terminal A was. I flew out on AA and they had 8-9 planes at terminal B. UA had 2 planes, WN had 2 planes, B6 too many to count and even AS had 1 flight at the gate. DL had...ZERO planes at 9:30am. Both the main terminal A and the concourse terminal were completely empty. How can an airline that was going full throttle on building out a BOS hub abandon it to the extent they have? Every other major US carrier had a presence except DL. It blows my mind how fast they cancelled practically all BOS service. DL has a 14 flights from BOS today (ATL 3x, DTW 3x, MSP 2x, 3x LGA, 2x JFK, SLC 1x). There used to be almost that many flights a day to ATL alone! I understand business travel is bust, but why did they abandon FL flying when leisure travel is rapidly increasing?

On a separate note there was an EI A321 at terminal E. What would it be doing there at 9:30am? Does it RON and depart back in the morning?


Delta, from what I gather, doesn't leave aircraft in Boston. A lot of those AA and UA planes might stay a day or two, spend the night, etc. Delta comes and goes. I've been past UA's side and seen no aircraft there more than a few times.

The EI 321s are doing 24 hour turns. One comes, one leaves. But for a while there's 2 side by side at E during the afternoon until the other leaves
 
airbazar
Posts: 10079
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:12 pm

Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Jun 02, 2020 9:25 pm

FGITD wrote:
clrd4t8koff wrote:
On a separate note there was an EI A321 at terminal E. What would it be doing there at 9:30am? Does it RON and depart back in the morning?


The EI 321s are doing 24 hour turns. One comes, one leaves. But for a while there's 2 side by side at E during the afternoon until the other leaves


Interesting. I imagine that is to allow then to fly back with the same crew the following day.
 
clrd4t8koff
Posts: 1643
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2005 3:57 am

Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Jun 03, 2020 2:28 am

airbazar wrote:
FGITD wrote:
clrd4t8koff wrote:
On a separate note there was an EI A321 at terminal E. What would it be doing there at 9:30am? Does it RON and depart back in the morning?


The EI 321s are doing 24 hour turns. One comes, one leaves. But for a while there's 2 side by side at E during the afternoon until the other leaves


Interesting. I imagine that is to allow then to fly back with the same crew the following day.


It was an interesting sight at E - At the gate to the right of the EI 321 was an FI Cargo 757 and at the gate to the right of FI pulled up a Silver Airways Saab340. Not the usual types to see at terminal E! Especially an all cargo plane at a passenger gate.

Tough to see so many tails absent from E that were once morning regulars - HA, BA, VS, JL (at a hard stand) KE, LY (at a hard stand) PD, CM, and probably others I’m missing...
 
User avatar
VS4ever
Posts: 2561
Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2004 10:03 am

Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jun 04, 2020 10:52 am

Latest network changes see BA bringing the A350-1000 in July (right now)
Emirates have delayed full daily service by 2 weeks but still planning on the 380
That feeling when you sit at the end of a runway, brakes are released and the raw power takes over. Now that is a thing of beauty and it never gets old.
 
FGITD
Posts: 805
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 1:44 pm

Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jun 04, 2020 1:59 pm

Also heard that LH and TK are coming back this month, AF or KL will start pax next month, JAL supposedly is doing some cargo runs now and might be back for pax next month.

Was talking with a fueler the other day, apparently quite a few of those daily BA 788s have horrifically low load counts.. As in, more crew than pax bad.

I’m not convinced about any aircraft type scheduled until it actually shows up in Boston. Huge number of factors at play, beyond the usual.
 
Ishrion
Posts: 2523
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 6:17 am

Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jun 04, 2020 2:08 pm

FGITD wrote:
Also heard that LH and TK are coming back this month, AF or KL will start pax next month, JAL supposedly is doing some cargo runs now and might be back for pax next month.

Was talking with a fueler the other day, apparently quite a few of those daily BA 788s have horrifically low load counts.. As in, more crew than pax bad.

I’m not convinced about any aircraft type scheduled until it actually shows up in Boston. Huge number of factors at play, beyond the usual.


Lufthansa resumes Boston in September.

https://newsroom.lufthansagroup.com/eng ... 6975846566
 
FGITD
Posts: 805
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 1:44 pm

Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jun 04, 2020 3:06 pm

Ishrion wrote:
FGITD wrote:
Also heard that LH and TK are coming back this month, AF or KL will start pax next month, JAL supposedly is doing some cargo runs now and might be back for pax next month.

Was talking with a fueler the other day, apparently quite a few of those daily BA 788s have horrifically low load counts.. As in, more crew than pax bad.

I’m not convinced about any aircraft type scheduled until it actually shows up in Boston. Huge number of factors at play, beyond the usual.


Lufthansa resumes Boston in September.

https://newsroom.lufthansagroup.com/eng ... 6975846566


Perhaps I'm misreading, but that release seems to indicate that they'll reach those percentages of flights BY September, but not that those destinations won't resume until then.

Either way, great news for LH. September may seem a long ways off but to be back at that capacity by then would be great
 
Ishrion
Posts: 2523
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 6:17 am

Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jun 04, 2020 5:26 pm

FGITD wrote:
Ishrion wrote:
FGITD wrote:
Also heard that LH and TK are coming back this month, AF or KL will start pax next month, JAL supposedly is doing some cargo runs now and might be back for pax next month.

Was talking with a fueler the other day, apparently quite a few of those daily BA 788s have horrifically low load counts.. As in, more crew than pax bad.

I’m not convinced about any aircraft type scheduled until it actually shows up in Boston. Huge number of factors at play, beyond the usual.


Lufthansa resumes Boston in September.

https://newsroom.lufthansagroup.com/eng ... 6975846566


Perhaps I'm misreading, but that release seems to indicate that they'll reach those percentages of flights BY September, but not that those destinations won't resume until then.

Either way, great news for LH. September may seem a long ways off but to be back at that capacity by then would be great


My bad, Lufthansa's website is showing availability starting July.
 
jworks158
Posts: 390
Joined: Mon Jun 26, 2017 5:02 pm

Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Jun 05, 2020 4:13 pm

clrd4t8koff wrote:
airbazar wrote:
FGITD wrote:

The EI 321s are doing 24 hour turns. One comes, one leaves. But for a while there's 2 side by side at E during the afternoon until the other leaves


Interesting. I imagine that is to allow then to fly back with the same crew the following day.


It was an interesting sight at E - At the gate to the right of the EI 321 was an FI Cargo 757 and at the gate to the right of FI pulled up a Silver Airways Saab340. Not the usual types to see at terminal E! Especially an all cargo plane at a passenger gate.

Tough to see so many tails absent from E that were once morning regulars - HA, BA, VS, JL (at a hard stand) KE, LY (at a hard stand) PD, CM, and probably others I’m missing...


FI has been sending 2 daily cargo 757s most days for the last few weeks, & 2x weekly pax 757 instead of one of the cargo aircraft. One day last week they had 4 757s in the morning to KEF. 1 had come in for VR from Praia the previous day. Interestingly yesterday they only sent 1 plane, and today none.

QR has the 3 weekly A359 starting at the beginning of July also. EK still has the A380 scheduled for July.
(A359,A343/A346,A332,A319/320/321,A220-100)(B788,B772,B762,B752,B744/B748,B732/B737/B738,B717)(E190,E145)(CRJ100/200, Dash 8-200)(MD-83)
JB,UA(C5,EV,CHQ,AX),AA(EGF,ZW,AX,PT),DL(OH,YX),FL,WN,LH,BA,AF,AZ,IB,VX,CO
https://my.flightradar24.com/theorangetechie
 
jworks158
Posts: 390
Joined: Mon Jun 26, 2017 5:02 pm

Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Jun 05, 2020 4:16 pm

FGITD wrote:
clrd4t8koff wrote:
Flew out of BOS today for the first time since early March. Total ghost town practically.

What really blew my mind was how abandoned terminal A was. I flew out on AA and they had 8-9 planes at terminal B. UA had 2 planes, WN had 2 planes, B6 too many to count and even AS had 1 flight at the gate. DL had...ZERO planes at 9:30am. Both the main terminal A and the concourse terminal were completely empty. How can an airline that was going full throttle on building out a BOS hub abandon it to the extent they have? Every other major US carrier had a presence except DL. It blows my mind how fast they cancelled practically all BOS service. DL has a 14 flights from BOS today (ATL 3x, DTW 3x, MSP 2x, 3x LGA, 2x JFK, SLC 1x). There used to be almost that many flights a day to ATL alone! I understand business travel is bust, but why did they abandon FL flying when leisure travel is rapidly increasing?

On a separate note there was an EI A321 at terminal E. What would it be doing there at 9:30am? Does it RON and depart back in the morning?


Delta, from what I gather, doesn't leave aircraft in Boston. A lot of those AA and UA planes might stay a day or two, spend the night, etc. Delta comes and goes. I've been past UA's side and seen no aircraft there more than a few times.

The EI 321s are doing 24 hour turns. One comes, one leaves. But for a while there's 2 side by side at E during the afternoon until the other leaves


UA is down to 1 Airbus which over nights in BOS from SFO, 1 737 from IAH, and some E170/175s to ORD/EWR/IAD

AS is only operating 1 daily, it's a RON from SEA.
(A359,A343/A346,A332,A319/320/321,A220-100)(B788,B772,B762,B752,B744/B748,B732/B737/B738,B717)(E190,E145)(CRJ100/200, Dash 8-200)(MD-83)
JB,UA(C5,EV,CHQ,AX),AA(EGF,ZW,AX,PT),DL(OH,YX),FL,WN,LH,BA,AF,AZ,IB,VX,CO
https://my.flightradar24.com/theorangetechie
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2326
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Jun 05, 2020 4:23 pm

TP has scheduled super late flights in July: departing 11:55 PM!

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