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Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Dec 31, 2019 11:54 am

Welcome to Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020. Please continue to add your comments below

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hsuthe19
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Dec 31, 2019 1:22 pm

In response to 1675’s prediction on mainline to LGA, I hope that becomes a reality. Since I go to college not far from Nashville, I fly back home using LGA whenever I’m on break, and while I like flying the E175, I would prefer a mainline jet because on mainline you can use streaming apps such as Netflix, Hulu, etc.
 
BNAMealer
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Dec 31, 2019 2:34 pm

Happy New Year all!

2019 was overall a great year for BNA despite some challenges within the aviation industry overall (i.e, the MAX grounding). We'll likely finish just over 18 million pax for the year. With the entrance of NK into the market, we finally have all the major domestic airlines.

Unfortunately, growth will likely slow to single digits for most of 2020 until if/when the MAX returns. This means 20 million will likely not happen until 2021. Nonetheless, here are some things we can look forward to in 2020.

1. BNA Vision (1.0) is really going to kick into high gear this year. Specifically, construction on the new terminal access roadways (including the Donelson Pike relocation) and the IAB should finally begin in the second half of the year. Arguably, I would say these two projects are the most critical of the entire Vision. The latter is critical because international growth can't really take off until this is built. Not only will it allow for multiple widebodies at the same time, it will allow for WN to launch some new international service that peer markets like STL and ATL have that BNA can't due to the FIS situation. I kind of wish they'd use hardstands to get things going sooner.

2. On that note, Concourse D and the terminal wings should open in July. Could this be the year WN announces the long-rumored crew base at BNA?

3. The Delta Sky Club expansion should begin construction sometime this year. I expect a formal announcement any month now. Also, we might see an announcement for a DL TATL flight to either CDG or AMS.

4. A new BNA website should be coming online sometime soon. Much needed IMO, the current one is slow and not well laid out.

5. The Master Plan should be approved during the year and hopefully, design for Vision 2.0 will kick into high gear so construction can begin as soon as Vision 1.0 finishes. As currently laid out, the Vision 2.0 should be sufficient to get BNA to about 32 million annual pax. After that, a second terminal will be needed.

Did I miss anything?
 
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southwest1675
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Jan 01, 2020 12:30 am

BNAMealer wrote:
Happy New Year all!

2019 was overall a great year for BNA despite some challenges within the aviation industry overall (i.e, the MAX grounding). We'll likely finish just over 18 million pax for the year. With the entrance of NK into the market, we finally have all the major domestic airlines.

Unfortunately, growth will likely slow to single digits for most of 2020 until if/when the MAX returns. This means 20 million will likely not happen until 2021. Nonetheless, here are some things we can look forward to in 2020.

1. BNA Vision (1.0) is really going to kick into high gear this year. Specifically, construction on the new terminal access roadways (including the Donelson Pike relocation) and the IAB should finally begin in the second half of the year. Arguably, I would say these two projects are the most critical of the entire Vision. The latter is critical because international growth can't really take off until this is built. Not only will it allow for multiple widebodies at the same time, it will allow for WN to launch some new international service that peer markets like STL and ATL have that BNA can't due to the FIS situation. I kind of wish they'd use hardstands to get things going sooner.

2. On that note, Concourse D and the terminal wings should open in July. Could this be the year WN announces the long-rumored crew base at BNA?

3. The Delta Sky Club expansion should begin construction sometime this year. I expect a formal announcement any month now. Also, we might see an announcement for a DL TATL flight to either CDG or AMS.

4. A new BNA website should be coming online sometime soon. Much needed IMO, the current one is slow and not well laid out.

5. The Master Plan should be approved during the year and hopefully, design for Vision 2.0 will kick into high gear so construction can begin as soon as Vision 1.0 finishes. As currently laid out, the Vision 2.0 should be sufficient to get BNA to about 32 million annual pax. After that, a second terminal will be needed.

Did I miss anything?


I think the MAX could bring growth issues for us. I still see at least one new city from WN. Most likely a Saturday only type start up. My guess would be IND or even LIT. I highly recommend you get some photos of the current facilities now, because it won’t look the same by the end of the year. Farewell BNA carpet.... I am a firm believer in that we’ll see some ULCC growth this year. Might just be some frequency additions, but new cities would also most likely come. We’ll see what happens with AA and PHX. Some peer markets are getting it. Why not us?
Herb Kelleher 1931-2019
 
woodfinx
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Jan 01, 2020 3:58 pm

BNAMealer wrote:
Happy New Year all!

2019 was overall a great year for BNA despite some challenges within the aviation industry overall (i.e, the MAX grounding). We'll likely finish just over 18 million pax for the year. With the entrance of NK into the market, we finally have all the major domestic airlines.

Unfortunately, growth will likely slow to single digits for most of 2020 until if/when the MAX returns. This means 20 million will likely not happen until 2021. Nonetheless, here are some things we can look forward to in 2020.

1. BNA Vision (1.0) is really going to kick into high gear this year. Specifically, construction on the new terminal access roadways (including the Donelson Pike relocation) and the IAB should finally begin in the second half of the year. Arguably, I would say these two projects are the most critical of the entire Vision. The latter is critical because international growth can't really take off until this is built. Not only will it allow for multiple widebodies at the same time, it will allow for WN to launch some new international service that peer markets like STL and ATL have that BNA can't due to the FIS situation. I kind of wish they'd use hardstands to get things going sooner.

2. On that note, Concourse D and the terminal wings should open in July. Could this be the year WN announces the long-rumored crew base at BNA?

3. The Delta Sky Club expansion should begin construction sometime this year. I expect a formal announcement any month now. Also, we might see an announcement for a DL TATL flight to either CDG or AMS.

4. A new BNA website should be coming online sometime soon. Much needed IMO, the current one is slow and not well laid out.

5. The Master Plan should be approved during the year and hopefully, design for Vision 2.0 will kick into high gear so construction can begin as soon as Vision 1.0 finishes. As currently laid out, the Vision 2.0 should be sufficient to get BNA to about 32 million annual pax. After that, a second terminal will be needed.

Did I miss anything?


2R/20L is gonna be closed for reconstruction for probably over a year.
 
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southwest1675
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Jan 01, 2020 5:31 pm

woodfinx wrote:
BNAMealer wrote:
Happy New Year all!

2019 was overall a great year for BNA despite some challenges within the aviation industry overall (i.e, the MAX grounding). We'll likely finish just over 18 million pax for the year. With the entrance of NK into the market, we finally have all the major domestic airlines.

Unfortunately, growth will likely slow to single digits for most of 2020 until if/when the MAX returns. This means 20 million will likely not happen until 2021. Nonetheless, here are some things we can look forward to in 2020.

1. BNA Vision (1.0) is really going to kick into high gear this year. Specifically, construction on the new terminal access roadways (including the Donelson Pike relocation) and the IAB should finally begin in the second half of the year. Arguably, I would say these two projects are the most critical of the entire Vision. The latter is critical because international growth can't really take off until this is built. Not only will it allow for multiple widebodies at the same time, it will allow for WN to launch some new international service that peer markets like STL and ATL have that BNA can't due to the FIS situation. I kind of wish they'd use hardstands to get things going sooner.

2. On that note, Concourse D and the terminal wings should open in July. Could this be the year WN announces the long-rumored crew base at BNA?

3. The Delta Sky Club expansion should begin construction sometime this year. I expect a formal announcement any month now. Also, we might see an announcement for a DL TATL flight to either CDG or AMS.

4. A new BNA website should be coming online sometime soon. Much needed IMO, the current one is slow and not well laid out.

5. The Master Plan should be approved during the year and hopefully, design for Vision 2.0 will kick into high gear so construction can begin as soon as Vision 1.0 finishes. As currently laid out, the Vision 2.0 should be sufficient to get BNA to about 32 million annual pax. After that, a second terminal will be needed.

Did I miss anything?


2R/20L is gonna be closed for reconstruction for probably over a year.


Good news for those spotters.
Herb Kelleher 1931-2019
 
BNAMealer
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Jan 01, 2020 6:19 pm

woodfinx wrote:
BNAMealer wrote:
Happy New Year all!

2019 was overall a great year for BNA despite some challenges within the aviation industry overall (i.e, the MAX grounding). We'll likely finish just over 18 million pax for the year. With the entrance of NK into the market, we finally have all the major domestic airlines.

Unfortunately, growth will likely slow to single digits for most of 2020 until if/when the MAX returns. This means 20 million will likely not happen until 2021. Nonetheless, here are some things we can look forward to in 2020.

1. BNA Vision (1.0) is really going to kick into high gear this year. Specifically, construction on the new terminal access roadways (including the Donelson Pike relocation) and the IAB should finally begin in the second half of the year. Arguably, I would say these two projects are the most critical of the entire Vision. The latter is critical because international growth can't really take off until this is built. Not only will it allow for multiple widebodies at the same time, it will allow for WN to launch some new international service that peer markets like STL and ATL have that BNA can't due to the FIS situation. I kind of wish they'd use hardstands to get things going sooner.

2. On that note, Concourse D and the terminal wings should open in July. Could this be the year WN announces the long-rumored crew base at BNA?

3. The Delta Sky Club expansion should begin construction sometime this year. I expect a formal announcement any month now. Also, we might see an announcement for a DL TATL flight to either CDG or AMS.

4. A new BNA website should be coming online sometime soon. Much needed IMO, the current one is slow and not well laid out.

5. The Master Plan should be approved during the year and hopefully, design for Vision 2.0 will kick into high gear so construction can begin as soon as Vision 1.0 finishes. As currently laid out, the Vision 2.0 should be sufficient to get BNA to about 32 million annual pax. After that, a second terminal will be needed.

Did I miss anything?


2R/20L is gonna be closed for reconstruction for probably over a year.


When will this begin?

It’s too bad it can’t be lengthened to 10,000 ft while they are at it.
 
ThaneC
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Jan 01, 2020 6:41 pm

Nashville continues its unprecedented boom. A strong diverse economy and population growth, coupled with the strong tourism and convention market help propel the growth. The arrival of Amazon downtown is drawing many related tech, health care and highly paid jobs. The airport terminal is probably almost at capacity until the BNA Vision project is finished. One can go almost anywhere from BNA nonstop right now. I expect Delta to add either Paris CDG or Amsterdam AMS service soon.
 
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southwest1675
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Jan 01, 2020 10:16 pm

Talked to some of the folks who work the BA flight. It’s doing really well for the Winter. The seats up front are filled up which is key to a flight like this. One of the guys mentioned that if BNA didn’t have to tow their international flights, you’d see other carriers jump on TATL service from BNA. There was speculation we were getting Wow or Icelandair, but the MNAA turned them away to protect the BA flight. This was back in mid 2018 if I remember correctly. While I’ll think we’ll continue to grow this year, it may not be double digits each month.
Herb Kelleher 1931-2019
 
Cubsrule
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Jan 01, 2020 10:48 pm

southwest1675 wrote:
Talked to some of the folks who work the BA flight. It’s doing really well for the Winter. The seats up front are filled up which is key to a flight like this. One of the guys mentioned that if BNA didn’t have to tow their international flights, you’d see other carriers jump on TATL service from BNA. There was speculation we were getting Wow or Icelandair, but the MNAA turned them away to protect the BA flight. This was back in mid 2018 if I remember correctly. While I’ll think we’ll continue to grow this year, it may not be double digits each month.


Why and how would MNAA “turn away” new service? They can’t deny gates to new entrants.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
Lexy
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Jan 01, 2020 11:19 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
southwest1675 wrote:
Talked to some of the folks who work the BA flight. It’s doing really well for the Winter. The seats up front are filled up which is key to a flight like this. One of the guys mentioned that if BNA didn’t have to tow their international flights, you’d see other carriers jump on TATL service from BNA. There was speculation we were getting Wow or Icelandair, but the MNAA turned them away to protect the BA flight. This was back in mid 2018 if I remember correctly. While I’ll think we’ll continue to grow this year, it may not be double digits each month.


Why and how would MNAA “turn away” new service? They can’t deny gates to new entrants.


MNAA owns the gates so yeah, they can deny whoever they want. Now, is it wise, no. But, look at PIT and what happened when BA entered the market.
Nashville, Tennessee KBNA
 
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southwest1675
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Jan 01, 2020 11:27 pm

Yeah, BNA was playing it safe and wanted the BA flight to mature before getting competition to Europe. PIT plays musical chairs and throws money at airlines. DL announced they were cutting their CDG flight a week after BA made their PIT announcement. A lot of work went into getting BA to Nashville, talks going back to 2013ish. So they were sure to make things right for them once they entered the market. Supposedly SJC’s BA flight was gonna go to Nashville, but the old Rob Wingington MNAA management was being difficult. There was always demand for flights between Nashville and Europe. Specifically London. Even AA’s Gatwick flight back in the 90s did pretty good all things considered. AA couldn’t sell seats up front. However the back, and belly of the plane were always full. Take that, and the MNAA getting into issues with landing fees, the flight and eventual hub were pulled.
Last edited by southwest1675 on Wed Jan 01, 2020 11:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Herb Kelleher 1931-2019
 
Cubsrule
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Jan 01, 2020 11:32 pm

Lexy wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
southwest1675 wrote:
Talked to some of the folks who work the BA flight. It’s doing really well for the Winter. The seats up front are filled up which is key to a flight like this. One of the guys mentioned that if BNA didn’t have to tow their international flights, you’d see other carriers jump on TATL service from BNA. There was speculation we were getting Wow or Icelandair, but the MNAA turned them away to protect the BA flight. This was back in mid 2018 if I remember correctly. While I’ll think we’ll continue to grow this year, it may not be double digits each month.


Why and how would MNAA “turn away” new service? They can’t deny gates to new entrants.


MNAA owns the gates so yeah, they can deny whoever they want. Now, is it wise, no. But, look at PIT and what happened when BA entered the market.


I mean it depends what you mean by “can.” Can it be done literally? Sure, but it would result in the loss of gobs of federal funding, which is why no airport ever denies space to a new entrant, to the point that you wind up with stuff like ticket counters in baggage claims.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
BNAMealer
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 02, 2020 1:32 am

southwest1675 wrote:
Talked to some of the folks who work the BA flight. It’s doing really well for the Winter. The seats up front are filled up which is key to a flight like this. One of the guys mentioned that if BNA didn’t have to tow their international flights, you’d see other carriers jump on TATL service from BNA. There was speculation we were getting Wow or Icelandair, but the MNAA turned them away to protect the BA flight. This was back in mid 2018 if I remember correctly. While I’ll think we’ll continue to grow this year, it may not be double digits each month.


Any word on BA becoming a daily year round service?

Those comments are the reason I said the new IAB needs to start construction ASAP.
 
gsg013
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 02, 2020 2:29 am

I came in on a Delta flight this afternoon ALT-BNA landed around 3 PM CST there was what looked to be a 777-200 BBJ on the ramp over near where Fedex usually has their planes. Didnt get the tail number but i'm fairly certain it was Len Blavatnik's 777 N777UK any clue what its doing in Nashville?

https://www.jetphotos.com/photo/9184655
 
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 02, 2020 3:23 am

gsg013 wrote:
I came in on a Delta flight this afternoon ALT-BNA landed around 3 PM CST there was what looked to be a 777-200 BBJ on the ramp over near where Fedex usually has their planes. Didnt get the tail number but i'm fairly certain it was Len Blavatnik's 777 N777UK any clue what its doing in Nashville?

https://www.jetphotos.com/photo/9184655


Warner Music-related business?
 
woodfinx
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 02, 2020 3:45 am

BNAMealer wrote:
woodfinx wrote:
BNAMealer wrote:
Happy New Year all!

2019 was overall a great year for BNA despite some challenges within the aviation industry overall (i.e, the MAX grounding). We'll likely finish just over 18 million pax for the year. With the entrance of NK into the market, we finally have all the major domestic airlines.

Unfortunately, growth will likely slow to single digits for most of 2020 until if/when the MAX returns. This means 20 million will likely not happen until 2021. Nonetheless, here are some things we can look forward to in 2020.

1. BNA Vision (1.0) is really going to kick into high gear this year. Specifically, construction on the new terminal access roadways (including the Donelson Pike relocation) and the IAB should finally begin in the second half of the year. Arguably, I would say these two projects are the most critical of the entire Vision. The latter is critical because international growth can't really take off until this is built. Not only will it allow for multiple widebodies at the same time, it will allow for WN to launch some new international service that peer markets like STL and ATL have that BNA can't due to the FIS situation. I kind of wish they'd use hardstands to get things going sooner.

2. On that note, Concourse D and the terminal wings should open in July. Could this be the year WN announces the long-rumored crew base at BNA?

3. The Delta Sky Club expansion should begin construction sometime this year. I expect a formal announcement any month now. Also, we might see an announcement for a DL TATL flight to either CDG or AMS.

4. A new BNA website should be coming online sometime soon. Much needed IMO, the current one is slow and not well laid out.

5. The Master Plan should be approved during the year and hopefully, design for Vision 2.0 will kick into high gear so construction can begin as soon as Vision 1.0 finishes. As currently laid out, the Vision 2.0 should be sufficient to get BNA to about 32 million annual pax. After that, a second terminal will be needed.

Did I miss anything?


2R/20L is gonna be closed for reconstruction for probably over a year.


When will this begin?

It’s too bad it can’t be lengthened to 10,000 ft while they are at it.


Aprilish I think. Whenever they finish K/A intersection.
 
bobphelps87
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 02, 2020 4:20 am

Cubsrule wrote:
Lexy wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:

Why and how would MNAA “turn away” new service? They can’t deny gates to new entrants.


MNAA owns the gates so yeah, they can deny whoever they want. Now, is it wise, no. But, look at PIT and what happened when BA entered the market.


I mean it depends what you mean by “can.” Can it be done literally? Sure, but it would result in the loss of gobs of federal funding, which is why no airport ever denies space to a new entrant, to the point that you wind up with stuff like ticket counters in baggage claims.


BNA guaranteed BA 2 years without competition to allow the flight to become established
 
bobphelps87
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 02, 2020 4:34 am

southwest1675 wrote:
BNAMealer wrote:
Happy New Year all!

2019 was overall a great year for BNA despite some challenges within the aviation industry overall (i.e, the MAX grounding). We'll likely finish just over 18 million pax for the year. With the entrance of NK into the market, we finally have all the major domestic airlines.

Unfortunately, growth will likely slow to single digits for most of 2020 until if/when the MAX returns. This means 20 million will likely not happen until 2021. Nonetheless, here are some things we can look forward to in 2020.

1. BNA Vision (1.0) is really going to kick into high gear this year. Specifically, construction on the new terminal access roadways (including the Donelson Pike relocation) and the IAB should finally begin in the second half of the year. Arguably, I would say these two projects are the most critical of the entire Vision. The latter is critical because international growth can't really take off until this is built. Not only will it allow for multiple widebodies at the same time, it will allow for WN to launch some new international service that peer markets like STL and ATL have that BNA can't due to the FIS situation. I kind of wish they'd use hardstands to get things going sooner.

2. On that note, Concourse D and the terminal wings should open in July. Could this be the year WN announces the long-rumored crew base at BNA?

3. The Delta Sky Club expansion should begin construction sometime this year. I expect a formal announcement any month now. Also, we might see an announcement for a DL TATL flight to either CDG or AMS.

4. A new BNA website should be coming online sometime soon. Much needed IMO, the current one is slow and not well laid out.

5. The Master Plan should be approved during the year and hopefully, design for Vision 2.0 will kick into high gear so construction can begin as soon as Vision 1.0 finishes. As currently laid out, the Vision 2.0 should be sufficient to get BNA to about 32 million annual pax. After that, a second terminal will be needed.

Did I miss anything?


I think the MAX could bring growth issues for us. I still see at least one new city from WN. Most likely a Saturday only type start up. My guess would be IND or even LIT. I highly recommend you get some photos of the current facilities now, because it won’t look the same by the end of the year. Farewell BNA carpet.... I am a firm believer in that we’ll see some ULCC growth this year. Might just be some frequency additions, but new cities would also most likely come. We’ll see what happens with AA and PHX. Some peer markets are getting it. Why not us?


2 projects are set to start soon

The first will be the design, approvals, FAA, TDOT, etc for the 2L extension which is expected to take 18-24 months and is tentatively scheduled to begin Q2

The second project will be the fill needed for the new Concourse A. That project must begin "now" to allow the fill time to settle before it can be built upon. Hoping to start by Q4 latest
 
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southwest1675
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 02, 2020 5:31 am

bobphelps87 wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
Lexy wrote:

MNAA owns the gates so yeah, they can deny whoever they want. Now, is it wise, no. But, look at PIT and what happened when BA entered the market.


I mean it depends what you mean by “can.” Can it be done literally? Sure, but it would result in the loss of gobs of federal funding, which is why no airport ever denies space to a new entrant, to the point that you wind up with stuff like ticket counters in baggage claims.


BNA guaranteed BA 2 years without competition to allow the flight to become established


There was an incentive package if the flight underperformed. That money was never seen as the flight as outperformed expectations.
Herb Kelleher 1931-2019
 
BNAMealer
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 02, 2020 11:04 am

bobphelps87 wrote:
2 projects are set to start soon

The first will be the design, approvals, FAA, TDOT, etc for the 2L extension which is expected to take 18-24 months and is tentatively scheduled to begin Q2

The second project will be the fill needed for the new Concourse A. That project must begin "now" to allow the fill time to settle before it can be built upon. Hoping to start by Q4 latest


Which part of the fill?
 
ZazuPIT
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 02, 2020 2:10 pm

If 2L is indeed going to be extended over Murfreesboro Pike, what happens to the old Genesco and Johnston and Murphy buildings? They are extremely close. Knight Valley Drive will also have to be rerouted.
 
woodfinx
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 03, 2020 4:42 am

ZazuPIT wrote:
If 2L is indeed going to be extended over Murfreesboro Pike, what happens to the old Genesco and Johnston and Murphy buildings? They are extremely close. Knight Valley Drive will also have to be rerouted.


Genesco would be retained, Johnston and Murphy removed.

Knight Valley would be closed as would all the neighborhood roads east of Seven Oaks. The RPZ and approach lights would go right to the northern edge of the USPS facility.
 
pdt2f
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 03, 2020 4:44 pm

woodfinx wrote:
ZazuPIT wrote:
If 2L is indeed going to be extended over Murfreesboro Pike, what happens to the old Genesco and Johnston and Murphy buildings? They are extremely close. Knight Valley Drive will also have to be rerouted.


Genesco would be retained, Johnston and Murphy removed.

Knight Valley would be closed as would all the neighborhood roads east of Seven Oaks. The RPZ and approach lights would go right to the northern edge of the USPS facility.


Johnston and Murphy is a tiny part of that complex. Most of it is Metro facilities, including eBid, the fleet maintenance/repairs facility for all Metro vehicles, a large police office (the Traffic division and the Traffic school), along with a smattering of smaller offices like NFD, Election Commission, Career Advancement Center (NCAC), and the Arts Commission. Metro has long term plans to stay at the facility, and would be unwilling to give the facility to MNAA, especially since finding replacement facilities would cost a lot of money that the current administration would probably be unwilling to spend.
“The sky peoclaims God’s glory - the vault of heaven, the Hand of Him who made it.”

BNA based.
 
jplatts
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 03, 2020 5:51 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Looking at Q2 2019, hear is what I found:

-321 PDEW between BNA-PHX, with WN capturing ~80% of the local market offering 4 flights a day, meaning 63 PDEW split among the remaining carriers.
-AA has a majority of these connecting passengers capturing around 33 PDEW, the vast majority(around 2/3rds) of which connect through DFW.
-Average fare across all carriers on BNA-PHX was $274, however, BNA-DFW-PHX averaged $323, which for reference is significantly more than AA averaged for BNA-LAX nonstop
-Comparable markets to BNA, either have less competition from WN or are a larger O&D market

I think the problem standing in the way of AA adding BNA-PHX is WN, with their 4 flights a day there isn't much O&D left to spare. With less O&D the flight will be more reliant on connections, potentially pulling away from AA's successful BNA-LAX/PHX routes since PHX doesn't offer many unique destinations.

I do wish they would try at least, maybe Saturday only at first.


I had also previously mentioned that WN also has a FF base in Greater Phoenix who prefers to fly WN over AA, DL, or UA due to WN having nonstop service out of PHX to destinations such as BUF, CLE, LIT, SDF, and TUL that aren't served nonstop out of PHX on any of the US3 carriers. WN also doesn't currently have any nonstop competition on its PHX-BUF, PHX-LIT, PHX-SDF, PHX-BNA, or PHX-TUL nonstop routes.

AA also already serves its other Arizona destinations nonstop from its DFW hub, and there is less need for AA to serve PHX nonstop from BNA with AA being able to connect passengers to FLG, TUS, and YUM from BNA through DFW.
 
woodfinx
Posts: 7
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2007 12:10 pm

Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 03, 2020 8:15 pm

pdt2f wrote:
woodfinx wrote:
ZazuPIT wrote:
If 2L is indeed going to be extended over Murfreesboro Pike, what happens to the old Genesco and Johnston and Murphy buildings? They are extremely close. Knight Valley Drive will also have to be rerouted.


Genesco would be retained, Johnston and Murphy removed.

Knight Valley would be closed as would all the neighborhood roads east of Seven Oaks. The RPZ and approach lights would go right to the northern edge of the USPS facility.


Johnston and Murphy is a tiny part of that complex. Most of it is Metro facilities, including eBid, the fleet maintenance/repairs facility for all Metro vehicles, a large police office (the Traffic division and the Traffic school), along with a smattering of smaller offices like NFD, Election Commission, Career Advancement Center (NCAC), and the Arts Commission. Metro has long term plans to stay at the facility, and would be unwilling to give the facility to MNAA, especially since finding replacement facilities would cost a lot of money that the current administration would probably be unwilling to spend.


MNAA already owns all the buildings.
 
BNAMealer
Posts: 528
Joined: Sat Jul 27, 2019 8:03 pm

Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Jan 04, 2020 12:59 am

Hopefully minimal ROW will be needed for the 2L extension so construction can begin as soon as the environmental clearance is given.

That and the rebuild of A will be the two most critical portions of Vision 2.0.

I wonder if WN would be willing to help pay for the 3 gate addition onto D as they’d most likely be the ones using it.
 
woodfinx
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Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2007 12:10 pm

Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Jan 04, 2020 2:09 am

BNAMealer wrote:
Hopefully minimal ROW will be needed for the 2L extension so construction can begin as soon as the environmental clearance is given.

That and the rebuild of A will be the two most critical portions of Vision 2.0.

I wonder if WN would be willing to help pay for the 3 gate addition onto D as they’d most likely be the ones using it.


I don't believe it starts until after 2R is done. Kinda hard to operate with just one of the 2s.
 
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southwest1675
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Jan 04, 2020 3:52 am

I can tell they're definitely picking up the pace on construction. Terminal wings are quietly coming together.
Herb Kelleher 1931-2019
 
BNAMealer
Posts: 528
Joined: Sat Jul 27, 2019 8:03 pm

Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Jan 05, 2020 12:58 am

woodfinx wrote:
BNAMealer wrote:
Hopefully minimal ROW will be needed for the 2L extension so construction can begin as soon as the environmental clearance is given.

That and the rebuild of A will be the two most critical portions of Vision 2.0.

I wonder if WN would be willing to help pay for the 3 gate addition onto D as they’d most likely be the ones using it.


I don't believe it starts until after 2R is done. Kinda hard to operate with just one of the 2s.


The extension is 4-5 years away at the minimum, 2R will be long finished by then.
 
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southwest1675
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Jan 05, 2020 10:42 pm

I think we’ll hear the 2019 numbers sometime this week...
Herb Kelleher 1931-2019
 
badbnatraffic
Posts: 7
Joined: Wed Oct 16, 2019 1:56 am

Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 1:38 am

Flying home today on BOS-LGA-BNA, flight was delayed and was talking to some AA employees about missing my connection. And one made a comment about there being talk about a potential direct BOS flight on AA. Of course I don’t work at AA and I haven’t heard about this potential route so if anyone has heard anything I’d love to hear it.
 
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southwest1675
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 3:12 am

badbnatraffic wrote:
Flying home today on BOS-LGA-BNA, flight was delayed and was talking to some AA employees about missing my connection. And one made a comment about there being talk about a potential direct BOS flight on AA. Of course I don’t work at AA and I haven’t heard about this potential route so if anyone has heard anything I’d love to hear it.


Interesting. There is quite a bit of traffic between BNA and BOS already. Never know with this market at this point.
Herb Kelleher 1931-2019
 
reednavy
Posts: 31
Joined: Sun Mar 24, 2019 4:01 pm

Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 1:43 pm

southwest1675 wrote:
badbnatraffic wrote:
Flying home today on BOS-LGA-BNA, flight was delayed and was talking to some AA employees about missing my connection. And one made a comment about there being talk about a potential direct BOS flight on AA. Of course I don’t work at AA and I haven’t heard about this potential route so if anyone has heard anything I’d love to hear it.


Interesting. There is quite a bit of traffic between BNA and BOS already. Never know with this market at this point.

I guess we'd have to see what the Envoy contract, that needs to go away quickly, will allow BNA to have.
 
dafunk10
Posts: 70
Joined: Thu Sep 06, 2018 8:02 pm

Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 3:27 pm

badbnatraffic wrote:
Flying home today on BOS-LGA-BNA, flight was delayed and was talking to some AA employees about missing my connection. And one made a comment about there being talk about a potential direct BOS flight on AA. Of course I don’t work at AA and I haven’t heard about this potential route so if anyone has heard anything I’d love to hear it.



AA has a few P2P routes out of BOS that are interesting but I’m not sure why they’d want to enter the DL/B6 war in BOS on a BNA route.....that said, it does look similar to how they added AUS-BOS (and SJC) to protect their footprint from DL’s growing focus city in AUS....might be the same approach here??
 
UALFAson
Posts: 1049
Joined: Sun Mar 14, 2004 2:41 pm

Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 5:27 pm

dafunk10 wrote:
badbnatraffic wrote:
Flying home today on BOS-LGA-BNA, flight was delayed and was talking to some AA employees about missing my connection. And one made a comment about there being talk about a potential direct BOS flight on AA. Of course I don’t work at AA and I haven’t heard about this potential route so if anyone has heard anything I’d love to hear it.



AA has a few P2P routes out of BOS that are interesting but I’m not sure why they’d want to enter the DL/B6 war in BOS on a BNA route.....that said, it does look similar to how they added AUS-BOS (and SJC) to protect their footprint from DL’s growing focus city in AUS....might be the same approach here??


First of all, crew gossip is a terribly unreliable source of information. Airlines don't leak new route information to pilots and flights attendants before officially announcing them to the media. This just sounds like some (commuter?) flight attendant's wishful thinking.

Secondly, I agree with dafunk10 that getting involved in a DL, B6, and WN war is not the best use of an AA aircraft. As a BNA-based Platinum AA flyer who travels to BOS 3-4x a year, I would LOVE for AA to offer nonstop flights on the route, but it's too easy for them to route connections through DCA, CLT, and LGA. If AA wants to start building up BOS, they're going to begin with flights that have as little competition as possible.
"We hope you've enjoyed flying with us as much as we've enjoyed taking you for a ride."
 
BNAMealer
Posts: 528
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Jan 07, 2020 12:49 am

Lol at the notion of AA adding BNA-BOS. They don’t even fly to all their hubs (*cough PHX *cough) and they fly a ton of regional jets. I’m hoping MNAA forces AA to give up a gate or two since they aren’t even remotely utilizing them fully.
 
n917me
Posts: 505
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Jan 07, 2020 1:12 am

Current schedule, which starts tomorrow.. we have average 21 Mainline and 24 Regional.
During our banks.. we do utilize all the gates we have.
The morning bank requires several rows as we dont have enough gates.
 
BNAMealer
Posts: 528
Joined: Sat Jul 27, 2019 8:03 pm

Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Jan 07, 2020 1:58 am

n917me wrote:
Current schedule, which starts tomorrow.. we have average 21 Mainline and 24 Regional.
During our banks.. we do utilize all the gates we have.
The morning bank requires several rows as we dont have enough gates.


If I’m doing my math right, AA at BNA averages between 40-45 flights depending on the season, which is roughly 6 turns per gate per day. I’m sorry, but that doesn’t require 8 gates. I’d like to see less overall flights, but some serious upgauging from AA.
 
tnair1974
Posts: 136
Joined: Sun Sep 15, 2019 5:37 pm

Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Jan 07, 2020 2:02 am

BNAMealer wrote:
Lol at the notion of AA adding BNA-BOS. They don’t even fly to all their hubs (*cough PHX *cough) and they fly a ton of regional jets. I’m hoping MNAA forces AA to give up a gate or two since they aren’t even remotely utilizing them fully.

I'm a little surprised AA started CVG-PHX but not BNA-PHX.

I wonder if this will tempt G4 to try BNA-AZA (Phoenix-Mesa). True, even the robust BNA market has limits. Also, G4 from AZA has had somewhat limited success to the eastern half of the county except to markets that have no WN/AA competition from PHX. But seems BNA-AZA would have as good a shot from AZA as any other eastern station.
 
n917me
Posts: 505
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 9:18 am

Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Jan 07, 2020 2:32 am

BNAMealer wrote:
n917me wrote:
Current schedule, which starts tomorrow.. we have average 21 Mainline and 24 Regional.
During our banks.. we do utilize all the gates we have.
The morning bank requires several rows as we dont have enough gates.


If I’m doing my math right, AA at BNA averages between 40-45 flights depending on the season, which is roughly 6 turns per gate per day. I’m sorry, but that doesn’t require 8 gates. I’d like to see less overall flights, but some serious upgauging from AA.


During the summer we go to 45-50 departures. We operate to all hubs except PHX and several times during the day, there is a flight to each hub on the ground at the same time or close to the same time.. throw in summer IROPS and there have been numerous times we have to hold out for a gate.
We all know.. when you give a gate back... rarely do you ever get it back, which would limit our growth in the future.

Giving up gates would be a disaster for our morning flights. We struggle as it is getting planes towed from the pad/B6 to the gates.. get crews on.. and board

Do we have downtime where we dont use all our gates.. yes. And so does every other airline at BNA. WN could give C4 back as they hardly use that gate. I sit across at C2/C3 and see it empty most of the day.
 
Jshank83
Posts: 3132
Joined: Tue Nov 01, 2016 2:23 pm

Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Jan 07, 2020 3:15 am

tnair1974 wrote:
BNAMealer wrote:
Lol at the notion of AA adding BNA-BOS. They don’t even fly to all their hubs (*cough PHX *cough) and they fly a ton of regional jets. I’m hoping MNAA forces AA to give up a gate or two since they aren’t even remotely utilizing them fully.

I'm a little surprised AA started CVG-PHX but not BNA-PHX.

I wonder if this will tempt G4 to try BNA-AZA (Phoenix-Mesa). True, even the robust BNA market has limits. Also, G4 from AZA has had somewhat limited success to the eastern half of the county except to markets that have no WN/AA competition from PHX. But seems BNA-AZA would have as good a shot from AZA as any other eastern station.


FWIW, STL has done okay with BLV-AZA even with WN/AA out of STL. But maybe Nashville is just Florida heavy instead of going to PHX as much for vacation.
 
BNAMealer
Posts: 528
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Jan 07, 2020 3:25 am

n917me wrote:
BNAMealer wrote:
n917me wrote:
Current schedule, which starts tomorrow.. we have average 21 Mainline and 24 Regional.
During our banks.. we do utilize all the gates we have.
The morning bank requires several rows as we dont have enough gates.


If I’m doing my math right, AA at BNA averages between 40-45 flights depending on the season, which is roughly 6 turns per gate per day. I’m sorry, but that doesn’t require 8 gates. I’d like to see less overall flights, but some serious upgauging from AA.


During the summer we go to 45-50 departures. We operate to all hubs except PHX and several times during the day, there is a flight to each hub on the ground at the same time or close to the same time.. throw in summer IROPS and there have been numerous times we have to hold out for a gate.
We all know.. when you give a gate back... rarely do you ever get it back, which would limit our growth in the future.

Giving up gates would be a disaster for our morning flights. We struggle as it is getting planes towed from the pad/B6 to the gates.. get crews on.. and board

Do we have downtime where we dont use all our gates.. yes. And so does every other airline at BNA. WN could give C4 back as they hardly use that gate. I sit across at C2/C3 and see it empty most of the day.


But WN has much bigger ambitions than AA does at BNA. So they may not use it much now, but down the road they will.

Furthermore, couldn’t simple upgauging solve some of the morning woes? Why does BNA-ORD need to be 8x daily on all CR7/E145 when 5-6x daily A319/CR7 would do? All of the worthwhile connection banks at ORD are later in the day anyway (at least to the European flights, which is IRD’s bread and butter now). Furthermore, the 2x daily E140 to JFK is virtually worthless now with no meaningful connections, so that can probably get cut. And DFW/CLT should be all mainline all the time, so they could probably reduce a frequency on each if they did that.

All in all, I’d like to see capacity over frequency from AA at BNA (and this goes for DL/UA as well), and having one less gate may compel them to upgauge.
 
Mac289
Posts: 1
Joined: Wed Dec 04, 2019 8:33 pm

Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Jan 07, 2020 3:40 am

n917me wrote:
BNAMealer wrote:
n917me wrote:
Current schedule, which starts tomorrow.. we have average 21 Mainline and 24 Regional.
During our banks.. we do utilize all the gates we have.
The morning bank requires several rows as we dont have enough gates.


If I’m doing my math right, AA at BNA averages between 40-45 flights depending on the season, which is roughly 6 turns per gate per day. I’m sorry, but that doesn’t require 8 gates. I’d like to see less overall flights, but some serious upgauging from AA.


During the summer we go to 45-50 departures. We operate to all hubs except PHX and several times during the day, there is a flight to each hub on the ground at the same time or close to the same time.. throw in summer IROPS and there have been numerous times we have to hold out for a gate.
We all know.. when you give a gate back... rarely do you ever get it back, which would limit our growth in the future.

Giving up gates would be a disaster for our morning flights. We struggle as it is getting planes towed from the pad/B6 to the gates.. get crews on.. and board

Do we have downtime where we dont use all our gates.. yes. And so does every other airline at BNA. WN could give C4 back as they hardly use that gate. I sit across at C2/C3 and see it empty most of the day.



We use C4 as an overflow gate due to the constrictions going on with the construction with the D concourse. Or for Originators/ Terminators.

From what i've seen, Ops prefers to not use that gate unless they absolutely have to due to how tight it is. Besides... the construction guys have been bitching about the jetblast they get because of how we have to do an "S" push off that gate.

It would also be complete madness if another carrier was bringing planes in and out of the alley. Its bad enough whenever an AA 738 pilot decides to go on an adventure down the alley during an ICO bank. :lol:
 
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southwest1675
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Jan 07, 2020 5:54 am

The ramp folks at AA in the morning have it cut out for them. Usually short staffed, multiple tows, having to work a red-eye LAX turn at 5am, it can be a little stressful. I can attest that I’ve seen AA at full capacity numerous times throughout at the day at BNA. They’ve had some nice upgauges over the past year or so. In regards to JFK and the 145s, they’re a non rev dream to NYC. Especially the early morning departure. The MNAA and AA still work together well to my understanding.
Herb Kelleher 1931-2019
 
MAH4546
Posts: 25936
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Jan 07, 2020 6:04 am

Lexy wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
southwest1675 wrote:
Talked to some of the folks who work the BA flight. It’s doing really well for the Winter. The seats up front are filled up which is key to a flight like this. One of the guys mentioned that if BNA didn’t have to tow their international flights, you’d see other carriers jump on TATL service from BNA. There was speculation we were getting Wow or Icelandair, but the MNAA turned them away to protect the BA flight. This was back in mid 2018 if I remember correctly. While I’ll think we’ll continue to grow this year, it may not be double digits each month.


Why and how would MNAA “turn away” new service? They can’t deny gates to new entrants.


MNAA owns the gates so yeah, they can deny whoever they want. Now, is it wise, no. But, look at PIT and what happened when BA entered the market.


Absolutely not. In the United States it is illegal for a public airport to deny an airline facilities. Now, if an airport is slot controlled and there are no slots that’s a different matter, but an airport cannot tell an airline they can’t fly there. Totally illegal.

Private airports are allowed to deny service, but the only such airport in the U.S. is Branson.

bobphelps87 wrote:

BNA guaranteed BA 2 years without competition to allow the flight to become established


No. That is not legal for a public airport.
a.
 
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southwest1675
Posts: 1280
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Jan 07, 2020 8:19 pm

Anyone know the status of the potential return of BNA’s ground tower? With Concourse D opening soon, it’s gonna be a tight one way alleyway out of the inner C gates.
Herb Kelleher 1931-2019
 
n917me
Posts: 505
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 9:18 am

Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Jan 07, 2020 8:30 pm

BNAMealer wrote:
n917me wrote:
BNAMealer wrote:

If I’m doing my math right, AA at BNA averages between 40-45 flights depending on the season, which is roughly 6 turns per gate per day. I’m sorry, but that doesn’t require 8 gates. I’d like to see less overall flights, but some serious upgauging from AA.


During the summer we go to 45-50 departures. We operate to all hubs except PHX and several times during the day, there is a flight to each hub on the ground at the same time or close to the same time.. throw in summer IROPS and there have been numerous times we have to hold out for a gate.
We all know.. when you give a gate back... rarely do you ever get it back, which would limit our growth in the future.

Giving up gates would be a disaster for our morning flights. We struggle as it is getting planes towed from the pad/B6 to the gates.. get crews on.. and board

Do we have downtime where we dont use all our gates.. yes. And so does every other airline at BNA. WN could give C4 back as they hardly use that gate. I sit across at C2/C3 and see it empty most of the day.


But WN has much bigger ambitions than AA does at BNA. So they may not use it much now, but down the road they will.

Furthermore, couldn’t simple upgauging solve some of the morning woes? Why does BNA-ORD need to be 8x daily on all CR7/E145 when 5-6x daily A319/CR7 would do? All of the worthwhile connection banks at ORD are later in the day anyway (at least to the European flights, which is IRD’s bread and butter now). Furthermore, the 2x daily E140 to JFK is virtually worthless now with no meaningful connections, so that can probably get cut. And DFW/CLT should be all mainline all the time, so they could probably reduce a frequency on each if they did that.

All in all, I’d like to see capacity over frequency from AA at BNA (and this goes for DL/UA as well), and having one less gate may compel them to upgauge.

Passengers prefer frequency over capacity. The business traveler rather would have options. Capacity may work for the leisure traveler who doesnt really care about schedule.. they are more interested in price, where the business traveler would rather be able to fly in.. do business and be able to depart same day. The morning ORD connect to Asia ..early afternoon to India/Middle East..afternoon/evening to Europe.

JFK is usually full during the summer.. worked enough oversold JFK flights to last a lifetime. Mostly all international.
We have upgauged.. 321s are regularly seen to DFW..MIA..LAX and occasionally CLT.
If WN wants to grow in airports where they dont have enough gates.. maybe get some bigger planes.
 
Jshank83
Posts: 3132
Joined: Tue Nov 01, 2016 2:23 pm

Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Jan 07, 2020 10:03 pm

MAH4546 wrote:
Lexy wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:

Why and how would MNAA “turn away” new service? They can’t deny gates to new entrants.


MNAA owns the gates so yeah, they can deny whoever they want. Now, is it wise, no. But, look at PIT and what happened when BA entered the market.


Absolutely not. In the United States it is illegal for a public airport to deny an airline facilities. Now, if an airport is slot controlled and there are no slots that’s a different matter, but an airport cannot tell an airline they can’t fly there. Totally illegal.

Private airports are allowed to deny service, but the only such airport in the U.S. is Branson.

bobphelps87 wrote:

BNA guaranteed BA 2 years without competition to allow the flight to become established


No. That is not legal for a public airport.


It might not be able to turn them away but they don't have to offer any incentives. Which may keep an airline away if they have to go at it on their own.

PIT offered incentives to other airlines to come. BNA can just not offer any and it probably keeps them from coming.
 
MAH4546
Posts: 25936
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Jan 07, 2020 10:06 pm

Jshank83 wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:
Lexy wrote:

MNAA owns the gates so yeah, they can deny whoever they want. Now, is it wise, no. But, look at PIT and what happened when BA entered the market.


Absolutely not. In the United States it is illegal for a public airport to deny an airline facilities. Now, if an airport is slot controlled and there are no slots that’s a different matter, but an airport cannot tell an airline they can’t fly there. Totally illegal.

Private airports are allowed to deny service, but the only such airport in the U.S. is Branson.

bobphelps87 wrote:

BNA guaranteed BA 2 years without competition to allow the flight to become established


No. That is not legal for a public airport.


It might not be able to turn them away but they don't have to offer any incentives. Which may keep an airline away if they have to go at it on their own.

PIT offered incentives to other airlines to come. BNA can just not offer any and it probably keeps them from coming.


There's rules about that too, though. A public airport can't act monopolistic. If they don't offer incentives, and the sole reason is to hinder competition, that violates antitrust laws and they can be sued by airlines.

Any inference that BNA is acting to hinder competition is inane. It isn't.
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