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Bluegrass60
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Feb 26, 2020 12:28 pm

tphuang wrote:
One thing that continues to surprise me looking at yield data is how WN still does not control BNA point of sale despite being the far and away largest carrier in terms of flights. It depends on quite a bit of connections to fill the aircraft. This would seem to indicate a lot of ff with legacy carriers.

Just a question for good folks here, how many gates are actually available if another carrier wanted to expand here? There has been some chatter that JetBlue is looking at a new focus city and BNA was discussed. I personally think they'd be walking into a giant bloodbath given the WN/AA/DL strength there. But is there even 6 to 10 gates available if another carrier wanted to build up here?


"It depends on quite a bit of connections to fill the aircraft.......what % of WN traffic connects these days?"
 
tphuang
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Feb 26, 2020 12:51 pm

Bluegrass60 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
One thing that continues to surprise me looking at yield data is how WN still does not control BNA point of sale despite being the far and away largest carrier in terms of flights. It depends on quite a bit of connections to fill the aircraft. This would seem to indicate a lot of ff with legacy carriers.

Just a question for good folks here, how many gates are actually available if another carrier wanted to expand here? There has been some chatter that JetBlue is looking at a new focus city and BNA was discussed. I personally think they'd be walking into a giant bloodbath given the WN/AA/DL strength there. But is there even 6 to 10 gates available if another carrier wanted to build up here?


"It depends on quite a bit of connections to fill the aircraft.......what % of WN traffic connects these days?"

I don't know. Depends on the route. I've only looked at BOS, but I'd assume other northeastern cities and florida would be similar. I saw WN at low 70% O&D vs B6/DL both being well over 90%.
 
BNAMealer
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Feb 26, 2020 12:59 pm

tphuang wrote:
Bluegrass60 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
One thing that continues to surprise me looking at yield data is how WN still does not control BNA point of sale despite being the far and away largest carrier in terms of flights. It depends on quite a bit of connections to fill the aircraft. This would seem to indicate a lot of ff with legacy carriers.

Just a question for good folks here, how many gates are actually available if another carrier wanted to expand here? There has been some chatter that JetBlue is looking at a new focus city and BNA was discussed. I personally think they'd be walking into a giant bloodbath given the WN/AA/DL strength there. But is there even 6 to 10 gates available if another carrier wanted to build up here?


"It depends on quite a bit of connections to fill the aircraft.......what % of WN traffic connects these days?"

I don't know. Depends on the route. I've only looked at BOS, but I'd assume other northeastern cities and florida would be similar. I saw WN at low 70% O&D vs B6/DL both being well over 90%.


But doesn’t WN fly bigger planes on the route? So you got to figure more seats will lower the percentage.

Overall airport traffic is about 88%-12% O&D & connecting respectively.
 
reednavy
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Feb 26, 2020 5:34 pm

BNAMealer wrote:
reednavy wrote:
WN will continue to build at BNA, but becoming a fortress hub won’t happen. They can’t snatch up THAT massive a percentage of over all traffic at the airport with the number of carriers and continued additional competition.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


They already have a majority marketshare. A lot of the adds have been low frequency seasonal (like G4, SY). Others have been to markets WN already serves.

The only potential obstacle is NK, but they don’t currently have the planes to really put a dent in WN’s marketshare. Also, BWI has a decent sized NK presence in addition to being a WN fortress.

A majority, yes, but achieving 70% of traffic or more at BNA I do not see ever happening, unless they went into hyper-growth mode at BNA. Even then, you have healthy growth from the legacies and entrance of 2 ULCCs, with one (NK) likely planning some major business at BNA.
 
dafunk10
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Feb 26, 2020 5:55 pm

tphuang wrote:
One thing that continues to surprise me looking at yield data is how WN still does not control BNA point of sale despite being the far and away largest carrier in terms of flights. It depends on quite a bit of connections to fill the aircraft. This would seem to indicate a lot of ff with legacy carriers.

Just a question for good folks here, how many gates are actually available if another carrier wanted to expand here? There has been some chatter that JetBlue is looking at a new focus city and BNA was discussed. I personally think they'd be walking into a giant bloodbath given the WN/AA/DL strength there. But is there even 6 to 10 gates available if another carrier wanted to build up here?



Both AA and DL have strong FF bases and business contracts in the market. AA obviously from the hub days, and I've heard from DL employees that business customers drive the strong yields they get out of BNA and was a major reason they designated it a 'focus city'

Conceptually from a pure 'space' standpoint, it would seem like B is best suited for a legacy focus city or hub operation, especially if Alaska joins AA in C. Not sure how gate ownership shakes out but the end of B is rarely full in my experience. Obviously that would mean DL is best suited, especially since United doesn't have a great presence comparatively and doesn't seem interested in developing a FC/hub type operation in the southeast. There will continue to be competition from ULCC airlines for space in A and B though that is a fairly new phenomenon at BNA as of 2018/2019.

Agree with you that JetBlue would be lighting cash on fire to attempt a FC at BNA.
 
Bluegrass60
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Feb 26, 2020 6:08 pm

WN currently has 50% of the BNA traffic. Not sure where you are getting NK planning major growth. NK operation center is moving from Hurricane prone Miramar, FL (south of Miami). NK has zero flights at MIA. NK HQ and many flights are in FLL. NK grows to 10-11 flights/day at BNA in Summer. Sure it could continue to grow....but....not likely with the WN presence at BNA. NK would not be the choice of any BNA FF. NK is targeting leisure class....same as Allegiant and Frontier and Sun Country. As long as Broadway keeps drawing tourists and hotels/bars/restaurants don't gouge em too badly....that leisure business will grow.
 
BNAMealer
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Feb 26, 2020 6:10 pm

reednavy wrote:
BNAMealer wrote:
reednavy wrote:
WN will continue to build at BNA, but becoming a fortress hub won’t happen. They can’t snatch up THAT massive a percentage of over all traffic at the airport with the number of carriers and continued additional competition.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


They already have a majority marketshare. A lot of the adds have been low frequency seasonal (like G4, SY). Others have been to markets WN already serves.

The only potential obstacle is NK, but they don’t currently have the planes to really put a dent in WN’s marketshare. Also, BWI has a decent sized NK presence in addition to being a WN fortress.

A majority, yes, but achieving 70% of traffic or more at BNA I do not see ever happening, unless they went into hyper-growth mode at BNA. Even then, you have healthy growth from the legacies and entrance of 2 ULCCs, with one (NK) likely planning some major business at BNA.


No WN station is at 70%+ outside of their MDW, DAL, HOU, etc stations where they are pretty much the only carrier. BWI comes the closest at 65%, but that’s it.

NK will have a decent role going forward, but like I said, it simply doesn’t have the planes to match WN’s frequency.
 
Cubsrule
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Feb 26, 2020 6:13 pm

dafunk10 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
One thing that continues to surprise me looking at yield data is how WN still does not control BNA point of sale despite being the far and away largest carrier in terms of flights. It depends on quite a bit of connections to fill the aircraft. This would seem to indicate a lot of ff with legacy carriers.

Just a question for good folks here, how many gates are actually available if another carrier wanted to expand here? There has been some chatter that JetBlue is looking at a new focus city and BNA was discussed. I personally think they'd be walking into a giant bloodbath given the WN/AA/DL strength there. But is there even 6 to 10 gates available if another carrier wanted to build up here?



Both AA and DL have strong FF bases and business contracts in the market. AA obviously from the hub days, and I've heard from DL employees that business customers drive the strong yields they get out of BNA and was a major reason they designated it a 'focus city'

Conceptually from a pure 'space' standpoint, it would seem like B is best suited for a legacy focus city or hub operation, especially if Alaska joins AA in C. Not sure how gate ownership shakes out but the end of B is rarely full in my experience. Obviously that would mean DL is best suited, especially since United doesn't have a great presence comparatively and doesn't seem interested in developing a FC/hub type operation in the southeast. There will continue to be competition from ULCC airlines for space in A and B though that is a fairly new phenomenon at BNA as of 2018/2019.

Agree with you that JetBlue would be lighting cash on fire to attempt a FC at BNA.


They could clear a fair amount of space on B fairly easily. WS may move in with DL anyway, and BA will move once the IAB is open, if not before.
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southwest1675
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Feb 27, 2020 1:09 am

I could probably check myself, but does DL have any 757's scheduled to BNA sometime later in the year?
Herb Kelleher 1931-2019
 
tphuang
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Feb 27, 2020 1:19 pm

There was a question a while back on the viability of WN on BNA-ATL. So here is the latest data from Q3. I have made so changes to acocunt for connection also. As a point of reference, I also put DL's performance on the same route along with some other short connection heavy routes that WN runs in the same table.

CityPairDist Carrier LF Dep PerFlt NSFare ConnF % NS Yield
ATLBNA 214 DL 86.71 1888 163.30 173.20 98.23 15.31 95.13
ATLBNA 214 WN 61.41 0714 144.80 117.20 68.36 30.34 51.08
FLLMCO 177 WN 73.80 0601 145.60 116.31 63.74 23.15 56.02
FLLTPA 197 WN 71.98 0646 149.40 183.42 61.52 37.63 77.31
FLLJAX 319 WN 52.89 0383 146.30 105.33 65.24 45.17 44.08
DALHOU 239 WN 68.49 3190 146.10 207.38 83.60 44.05 94.60
AUSDAL 189 WN 70.75 1696 145.70 187.92 83.81 33.35 83.86
AUSHOU 148 WN 78.03 0857 146.10 203.41 77.32 13.16 73.29
DALSAT 247 WN 74.56 1677 144.80 186.98 85.92 42.14 95.81
HOUSAT 192 WN 72.38 0949 148.40 190.77 76.92 17.40 70.01
LASONT 197 WN 76.60 0692 143.50 149.31 79.56 48.85 87.04
MDWSTL 251 WN 72.21 1266 147.10 198.98 84.96 42.10 96.02
MCISTL 237 WN 84.24 0586 143.50 183.14 83.94 24.63 91.29

Keep in mind that WN has already exited from FLL-JAX, but none of the other routes. It's doing about as well as FLL-MCO, which I think is also near chopping block. To me at least, BNA-ATL is definitely a huge money loser for them, but given their desire to continue building up in BNA, it's something they should be able to to stomach. I've taken a look at a bunch of other major East of the country hubs to ATL and the numbers are always bad.
 
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southwest1675
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Feb 27, 2020 4:42 pm

tphuang wrote:
There was a question a while back on the viability of WN on BNA-ATL. So here is the latest data from Q3. I have made so changes to acocunt for connection also. As a point of reference, I also put DL's performance on the same route along with some other short connection heavy routes that WN runs in the same table.

CityPairDist Carrier LF Dep PerFlt NSFare ConnF % NS Yield
ATLBNA 214 DL 86.71 1888 163.30 173.20 98.23 15.31 95.13
ATLBNA 214 WN 61.41 0714 144.80 117.20 68.36 30.34 51.08
FLLMCO 177 WN 73.80 0601 145.60 116.31 63.74 23.15 56.02
FLLTPA 197 WN 71.98 0646 149.40 183.42 61.52 37.63 77.31
FLLJAX 319 WN 52.89 0383 146.30 105.33 65.24 45.17 44.08
DALHOU 239 WN 68.49 3190 146.10 207.38 83.60 44.05 94.60
AUSDAL 189 WN 70.75 1696 145.70 187.92 83.81 33.35 83.86
AUSHOU 148 WN 78.03 0857 146.10 203.41 77.32 13.16 73.29
DALSAT 247 WN 74.56 1677 144.80 186.98 85.92 42.14 95.81
HOUSAT 192 WN 72.38 0949 148.40 190.77 76.92 17.40 70.01
LASONT 197 WN 76.60 0692 143.50 149.31 79.56 48.85 87.04
MDWSTL 251 WN 72.21 1266 147.10 198.98 84.96 42.10 96.02
MCISTL 237 WN 84.24 0586 143.50 183.14 83.94 24.63 91.29

Keep in mind that WN has already exited from FLL-JAX, but none of the other routes. It's doing about as well as FLL-MCO, which I think is also near chopping block. To me at least, BNA-ATL is definitely a huge money loser for them, but given their desire to continue building up in BNA, it's something they should be able to to stomach. I've taken a look at a bunch of other major East of the country hubs to ATL and the numbers are always bad.


Another thing to keep in mind, is that many of the BNA-ATL flights on WN are full of freight. Usually send a lot of Dell laptops each morning.
Herb Kelleher 1931-2019
 
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AVLAirlineFreq
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Feb 28, 2020 9:47 pm

Cape Air bringing its new Tecnam Traveller aircraft to BNA beginning March 4, on its EAS route to MWA (Marion, IL):

https://thepointsguy.com/news/onboard-c ... nantucket/
 
badbnatraffic
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Feb 28, 2020 10:57 pm

southwest1675 wrote:
I could probably check myself, but does DL have any 757's scheduled to BNA sometime later in the year?

Wasn’t DL’s use of the 757 on BNA-ATL a response to WN beginning service on that route?
 
dafunk10
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Feb 28, 2020 11:21 pm

badbnatraffic wrote:
southwest1675 wrote:
I could probably check myself, but does DL have any 757's scheduled to BNA sometime later in the year?

Wasn’t DL’s use of the 757 on BNA-ATL a response to WN beginning service on that route?



I think it was that, but also the front end of the MD 88/90 phase out. Those routes went from MD->757->739. Those that got upgauged never went back to MDs.

There are currently still MD-88’s on ATL, but I spot checked a few months late summer and it looks like the MDs are out and it’s all 739 and 738 service. No 757’s though.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Feb 29, 2020 1:11 pm

Obviously subject to change, but DL is now scheduling an A220 on BNA-LGA in September
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BNAMealer
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Feb 29, 2020 1:24 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Obviously subject to change, but DL is now scheduling an A220 on BNA-LGA in September


I certainly hope that sticks. They need to better compete against BNA-JFK on B6. Why do they bother to put that out so far in advance if it might change.
 
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southwest1675
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Feb 29, 2020 3:58 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Obviously subject to change, but DL is now scheduling an A220 on BNA-LGA in September


Perfect route for the 220.
Herb Kelleher 1931-2019
 
ZazuPIT
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Feb 29, 2020 4:43 pm

southwest1675 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Obviously subject to change, but DL is now scheduling an A220 on BNA-LGA in September


Perfect route for the 220.


Let's hope this change sticks. DL was going to use the 220 on BNA-BOS but removed it. I think they can make it work at LGA. It might force AA to upgauge as well.
 
BNAMealer
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Feb 29, 2020 4:54 pm

ZazuPIT wrote:
southwest1675 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Obviously subject to change, but DL is now scheduling an A220 on BNA-LGA in September


Perfect route for the 220.


Let's hope this change sticks. DL was going to use the 220 on BNA-BOS but removed it. I think they can make it work at LGA. It might force AA to upgauge as well.


NYC is a more important market than BOS. With WN running 737s to LGA and now B6 resuming JFK with A320s, DL is going to have to add mainline to either LGA or JFK to keep competitive. I doubt we’ll see anything from AA though, their mainline planes are too big and they don’t care about NYC anymore.
 
Cubsrule
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Feb 29, 2020 5:07 pm

Does anyone know anything about the F/A-18 doing touch and goes on 20L yesterday late afternoon?
Last edited by Cubsrule on Sat Feb 29, 2020 5:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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southwest1675
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Feb 29, 2020 5:26 pm

BNAMealer wrote:
ZazuPIT wrote:
southwest1675 wrote:

Perfect route for the 220.


Let's hope this change sticks. DL was going to use the 220 on BNA-BOS but removed it. I think they can make it work at LGA. It might force AA to upgauge as well.


NYC is a more important market than BOS. With WN running 737s to LGA and now B6 resuming JFK with A320s, DL is going to have to add mainline to either LGA or JFK to keep competitive. I doubt we’ll see anything from AA though, their mainline planes are too big and they don’t care about NYC anymore.


I think they could run a 190 or 319 to LGA. The new ramp contract will certainly be beneficial.
Herb Kelleher 1931-2019
 
bval
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Feb 29, 2020 5:31 pm

BNAMealer wrote:
I doubt we’ll see anything from AA though, their mainline planes are too big and they don’t care about NYC anymore.


AA cares very much about LGA. The business travelers who use their Eagle flights BNA-LGA prefer frequency over upgauging. I'm one of them. The 175 is a nice ride. Especially if you can book left side bulkhead aisle.
 
bval
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Feb 29, 2020 5:33 pm

southwest1675 wrote:
I think they could run a 190 or 319 to LGA. The new ramp contract will certainly be beneficial.


The 190s were supposed to be gone because by now. It's only the MAX holding up that retirement. I'd expect them gone this year even if the MAX doesn't come back.
 
reednavy
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Feb 29, 2020 5:45 pm

bval wrote:
BNAMealer wrote:
I doubt we’ll see anything from AA though, their mainline planes are too big and they don’t care about NYC anymore.


AA cares very much about LGA. The business travelers who use their Eagle flights BNA-LGA prefer frequency over upgauging. I'm one of them. The 175 is a nice ride. Especially if you can book left side bulkhead aisle.

It's that way with ORD, frequency versus capacity is the preference with business travelers.
 
ZazuPIT
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Feb 29, 2020 6:13 pm

BNAMealer wrote:
ZazuPIT wrote:
southwest1675 wrote:

Perfect route for the 220.


Let's hope this change sticks. DL was going to use the 220 on BNA-BOS but removed it. I think they can make it work at LGA. It might force AA to upgauge as well.


NYC is a more important market than BOS. With WN running 737s to LGA and now B6 resuming JFK with A320s, DL is going to have to add mainline to either LGA or JFK to keep competitive. I doubt we’ll see anything from AA though, their mainline planes are too big and they don’t care about NYC anymore.


The 319 isn't too much aircraft. While I quite like the 175, three carriers flying mainline has to put some pressure on AA to keep up. They still have a large FF business in Nashville.
 
BNAMealer
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Feb 29, 2020 6:27 pm

reednavy wrote:
bval wrote:
BNAMealer wrote:
I doubt we’ll see anything from AA though, their mainline planes are too big and they don’t care about NYC anymore.


AA cares very much about LGA. The business travelers who use their Eagle flights BNA-LGA prefer frequency over upgauging. I'm one of them. The 175 is a nice ride. Especially if you can book left side bulkhead aisle.

It's that way with ORD, frequency versus capacity is the preference with business travelers.


I agree the E75 is perfect for LGA. Though if DL starts regularly deploying the A220 on that route, AA will be at somewhat of a disadvantage. My comment was overall, they don’t care about NYC as evidenced by their JFK pullback.

AA is going to have to get rid of the 50 seaters on BNA-ORD. This is a route where E75s would be nice.
 
bval
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Mar 01, 2020 9:02 pm

BNAMealer wrote:
My comment was overall, they don’t care about NYC as evidenced by their JFK pullback.

AA is going to have to get rid of the 50 seaters on BNA-ORD. This is a route where E75s would be nice.


Definitely wish they hadn't pulled back so hard at JFK. I fly AA in Nashville and New York (I live in both cities for now. There's a story there.) and don't love that my long haul options other than some premium transcon routes are mostly not on American metal out of JFK. Flying other Oneworld partners is fun but really hurts my upgrade chances. If we had true high speed rail to PHL I might feel differently. I'm hoping that when BA and AS move into T8 that the connecting traffic plus the tighter relationship with QR and AS opens up some AA adds there.

Totally agree on ORD. I don't think they should mainline that but 50 seaters is rough. The 175 (or a CR7 frankly) would be perfect. They are missing out not selling a few F tickets on that route.
 
BNAMealer
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Mar 01, 2020 10:35 pm

bval wrote:
BNAMealer wrote:
My comment was overall, they don’t care about NYC as evidenced by their JFK pullback.

AA is going to have to get rid of the 50 seaters on BNA-ORD. This is a route where E75s would be nice.


Definitely wish they hadn't pulled back so hard at JFK. I fly AA in Nashville and New York (I live in both cities for now. There's a story there.) and don't love that my long haul options other than some premium transcon routes are mostly not on American metal out of JFK. Flying other Oneworld partners is fun but really hurts my upgrade chances. If we had true high speed rail to PHL I might feel differently. I'm hoping that when BA and AS move into T8 that the connecting traffic plus the tighter relationship with QR and AS opens up some AA adds there.

Totally agree on ORD. I don't think they should mainline that but 50 seaters is rough. The 175 (or a CR7 frankly) would be perfect. They are missing out not selling a few F tickets on that route.


Scaling back NYC (specifically JFK) in favor of PHL was/is probably the stupidest move AA has ever made. PHL is not a good hub at all, NYC is a higher yielding market.

I'm flying BNA-ORD in May on AA and I am not happy with my options. UA has removed all 50 seaters from the route and flies a mixture of A319/73G and E75s. AA needs to step up their game. They do have CR7s, but there are still E145's as well. Once the MAX returns, I think they could get away with cutting one frequency and moving the early morning flight to a A319 and the rest of the day to a mixture of CR7's/E75's.
 
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southwest1675
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Mar 01, 2020 11:18 pm

BNAMealer wrote:
bval wrote:
BNAMealer wrote:
My comment was overall, they don’t care about NYC as evidenced by their JFK pullback.

AA is going to have to get rid of the 50 seaters on BNA-ORD. This is a route where E75s would be nice.


Definitely wish they hadn't pulled back so hard at JFK. I fly AA in Nashville and New York (I live in both cities for now. There's a story there.) and don't love that my long haul options other than some premium transcon routes are mostly not on American metal out of JFK. Flying other Oneworld partners is fun but really hurts my upgrade chances. If we had true high speed rail to PHL I might feel differently. I'm hoping that when BA and AS move into T8 that the connecting traffic plus the tighter relationship with QR and AS opens up some AA adds there.

Totally agree on ORD. I don't think they should mainline that but 50 seaters is rough. The 175 (or a CR7 frankly) would be perfect. They are missing out not selling a few F tickets on that route.


Scaling back NYC (specifically JFK) in favor of PHL was/is probably the stupidest move AA has ever made. PHL is not a good hub at all, NYC is a higher yielding market.

I'm flying BNA-ORD in May on AA and I am not happy with my options. UA has removed all 50 seaters from the route and flies a mixture of A319/73G and E75s. AA needs to step up their game. They do have CR7s, but there are still E145's as well. Once the MAX returns, I think they could get away with cutting one frequency and moving the early morning flight to a A319 and the rest of the day to a mixture of CR7's/E75's.


Thanks to Zed Fares, I nonreved on the short lived AA 738 flight from ORD-BNA. It was full both ways. I only got on because of no shows misconnecting in ORD. AA has a lot of potential in Nashville.
Herb Kelleher 1931-2019
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Mar 02, 2020 2:12 am

BNAMealer wrote:
bval wrote:
BNAMealer wrote:
My comment was overall, they don’t care about NYC as evidenced by their JFK pullback.

AA is going to have to get rid of the 50 seaters on BNA-ORD. This is a route where E75s would be nice.


Definitely wish they hadn't pulled back so hard at JFK. I fly AA in Nashville and New York (I live in both cities for now. There's a story there.) and don't love that my long haul options other than some premium transcon routes are mostly not on American metal out of JFK. Flying other Oneworld partners is fun but really hurts my upgrade chances. If we had true high speed rail to PHL I might feel differently. I'm hoping that when BA and AS move into T8 that the connecting traffic plus the tighter relationship with QR and AS opens up some AA adds there.

Totally agree on ORD. I don't think they should mainline that but 50 seaters is rough. The 175 (or a CR7 frankly) would be perfect. They are missing out not selling a few F tickets on that route.


Scaling back NYC (specifically JFK) in favor of PHL was/is probably the stupidest move AA has ever made. PHL is not a good hub at all, NYC is a higher yielding market.


Not to get too off-track from the BNA discussion, but NYC is not a higher yielding market. Yes, NYC has the high net-worth individuals & large multi-national corporations, but if you are competing with almost every other airline for their air travel, you end up not being able to charge a premium to those customers. That is why AA didn't break even in NYC until last year.
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BNAMealer
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Mar 02, 2020 3:43 am

southwest1675 wrote:
BNAMealer wrote:
bval wrote:

Definitely wish they hadn't pulled back so hard at JFK. I fly AA in Nashville and New York (I live in both cities for now. There's a story there.) and don't love that my long haul options other than some premium transcon routes are mostly not on American metal out of JFK. Flying other Oneworld partners is fun but really hurts my upgrade chances. If we had true high speed rail to PHL I might feel differently. I'm hoping that when BA and AS move into T8 that the connecting traffic plus the tighter relationship with QR and AS opens up some AA adds there.

Totally agree on ORD. I don't think they should mainline that but 50 seaters is rough. The 175 (or a CR7 frankly) would be perfect. They are missing out not selling a few F tickets on that route.


Scaling back NYC (specifically JFK) in favor of PHL was/is probably the stupidest move AA has ever made. PHL is not a good hub at all, NYC is a higher yielding market.

I'm flying BNA-ORD in May on AA and I am not happy with my options. UA has removed all 50 seaters from the route and flies a mixture of A319/73G and E75s. AA needs to step up their game. They do have CR7s, but there are still E145's as well. Once the MAX returns, I think they could get away with cutting one frequency and moving the early morning flight to a A319 and the rest of the day to a mixture of CR7's/E75's.


Thanks to Zed Fares, I nonreved on the short lived AA 738 flight from ORD-BNA. It was full both ways. I only got on because of no shows misconnecting in ORD. AA has a lot of potential in Nashville.


They should throw a regular A319 or two on the route once the MAX returns.

It will be interesting to see AA/DL battle it out for the No 2 spot/legacy of choice in BNA. I do wonder though if WN builds up BNA into a southeastern BWI if that will affect AA/DL’s operations.

Midwestindy wrote:
BNAMealer wrote:
bval wrote:

Definitely wish they hadn't pulled back so hard at JFK. I fly AA in Nashville and New York (I live in both cities for now. There's a story there.) and don't love that my long haul options other than some premium transcon routes are mostly not on American metal out of JFK. Flying other Oneworld partners is fun but really hurts my upgrade chances. If we had true high speed rail to PHL I might feel differently. I'm hoping that when BA and AS move into T8 that the connecting traffic plus the tighter relationship with QR and AS opens up some AA adds there.

Totally agree on ORD. I don't think they should mainline that but 50 seaters is rough. The 175 (or a CR7 frankly) would be perfect. They are missing out not selling a few F tickets on that route.


Scaling back NYC (specifically JFK) in favor of PHL was/is probably the stupidest move AA has ever made. PHL is not a good hub at all, NYC is a higher yielding market.


Not to get too off-track from the BNA discussion, but NYC is not a higher yielding market. Yes, NYC has the high net-worth individuals & large multi-national corporations, but if you are competing with almost every other airline for their air travel, you end up not being able to charge a premium to those customers. That is why AA didn't break even in NYC until last year.


Apologies, higher yielding was not necessarily the correct term here. I should have said NYC is a more valuable market (and it is). AA should not have scaled back NYC, even if they lose money or break even, they should be able to make it up elsewhere in the system, like DL does with their core hubs when talking about BOS/SEA.

PHL is a horrible hub to connect to TATL and obviously, there are a lot more lucrative business travelers in NYC. AA has a massively underutilized terminal in JFK, not even moving BA there will fully utilize it.
 
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southwest1675
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Mar 02, 2020 5:13 am

Somewhat random, but I thought seeing 3 NK birds at BNA at the same time was interesting. A sight I personally wouldn't have expected in Nashville.Their CUN flight was on A6 next to BA, one pushing on A1, and one waiting for the gate. With NK now in town, what other domestic carriers will BNA ever see? I'm guessing Breeze and mayyybeeeeeee HA to HNL with AC like the 321XLR. That's a stretch, and if it ever happened, it would be much later on. Doug did express interest in BNA-Hawaii flights a few months ago.
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skitchie
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Mar 02, 2020 5:16 am

southwest1675 wrote:
Somewhat random, but I thought seeing 3 NK birds at BNA at the same time was interesting. A sight I personally wouldn't have expected at Nashville.Their CUN flight was on A6 next to BA, one pushing on A1, and one waiting for the gate.
A harbinger of NK's to come. Hopefully with that A concourse expansion they can snag a gate or two. That whole penalty box/deice pad/remote area is getting more and more cramped nowadays
 
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southwest1675
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Mar 02, 2020 5:18 am

skitchie wrote:
southwest1675 wrote:
Somewhat random, but I thought seeing 3 NK birds at BNA at the same time was interesting. A sight I personally wouldn't have expected at Nashville.Their CUN flight was on A6 next to BA, one pushing on A1, and one waiting for the gate.
A harbinger of NK's to come. Hopefully with that A concourse expansion they can snag a gate or two. That whole penalty box/deice pad/remote area is getting more and more cramped nowadays


I know in the late afternoons the A/B concourses are jam packed. I'm sure when BA tows everything becomes even more difficult.
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skitchie
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Mar 02, 2020 5:28 am

southwest1675 wrote:
skitchie wrote:
southwest1675 wrote:
Somewhat random, but I thought seeing 3 NK birds at BNA at the same time was interesting. A sight I personally wouldn't have expected at Nashville.Their CUN flight was on A6 next to BA, one pushing on A1, and one waiting for the gate.
A harbinger of NK's to come. Hopefully with that A concourse expansion they can snag a gate or two. That whole penalty box/deice pad/remote area is getting more and more cramped nowadays


I know in the late afternoons the A/B concourses are jam packed. I'm sure when BA tows everything becomes even more difficult.
Luckily dnata has the tow process quick like clockwork so they can get from the A gate to the B gate in less than 5 minutes, the problem comes with inbound and outbound traffic not having a clue as to what's going on.

Sometimes on a bad night you can see an ops car driving around like a chicken with it's head cut off, worse nights will give you what we call the Tango Special--namely, BA blocking both inbound and outbound traffic with all three parties waiting to see what the other will do.

I think the record is a conga line reaching from B9 to B8 a few months ago
 
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Mar 02, 2020 2:45 pm

skitchie wrote:
Luckily dnata has the tow process quick like clockwork so they can get from the A gate to the B gate in less than 5 minutes, the problem comes with inbound and outbound traffic not having a clue as to what's going on.

Sometimes on a bad night you can see an ops car driving around like a chicken with it's head cut off, worse nights will give you what we call the Tango Special--namely, BA blocking both inbound and outbound traffic with all three parties waiting to see what the other will do.

I think the record is a conga line reaching from B9 to B8 a few months ago


Sounds like we need that controlled ramp ASAP. And D isn't even open for business yet!
 
Cubsrule
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Mar 02, 2020 3:10 pm

A smaller but significant milestone today: mainline AC is back for the first time in I don't know how long. And while the pitch on the E90s isn't great toward the back, it's otherwise a really nice onboard product, including PTVs.
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TangoCharlie123
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Mar 02, 2020 7:08 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
A smaller but significant milestone today: mainline AC is back for the first time in I don't know how long. And while the pitch on the E90s isn't great toward the back, it's otherwise a really nice onboard product, including PTVs.


Certainly an improvement over those CRJ-200s they were flying.
 
dafunk10
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Mar 02, 2020 8:19 pm

I’m guessing BNA growth takes a big pause if not step back for 2020 with the MAX + coronavirus situation. Think you’ll start to see a corporate travel freeze start across industries.

Not a bad thing to let the construction catch up to demand I think.
 
BNAMealer
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Mar 02, 2020 8:42 pm

dafunk10 wrote:
I’m guessing BNA growth takes a big pause if not step back for 2020 with the MAX + coronavirus situation. Think you’ll start to see a corporate travel freeze start across industries.

Not a bad thing to let the construction catch up to demand I think.


Growth will slow this year for sure, but I don’t think it will take a step back. Definitely not hitting 20 million. My guess is growth slows to somewhere between 18.6 million to 19 million.
 
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southwest1675
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Mar 02, 2020 8:44 pm

BNAMealer wrote:
dafunk10 wrote:
I’m guessing BNA growth takes a big pause if not step back for 2020 with the MAX + coronavirus situation. Think you’ll start to see a corporate travel freeze start across industries.

Not a bad thing to let the construction catch up to demand I think.


Growth will slow this year for sure, but I don’t think it will take a step back. Definitely not hitting 20 million. My guess is growth slows to somewhere between 18.6 million to 19 million.


We have quite a few new additions to start later in the year. We'll grow. Just won't be anything historical.
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usscvr
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Mar 02, 2020 9:25 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
Does anyone know anything about the F/A-18 doing touch and goes on 20L yesterday late afternoon?


I live about 40 NM SSW of BNA. Yesterday around 16:00 or so I heard the distinct sound of afterburners high above. I believe I heard two. I knew immediately what it was. I just couldn't spot them. A very infrequent sound for this particular location.
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ZazuPIT
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Mar 03, 2020 1:35 pm

Does anyone know if BNA suffered any damage in last night's tornado? I see where John C. Tune was hit pretty hard.
 
BNAMealer
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Mar 03, 2020 1:44 pm

ZazuPIT wrote:
Does anyone know if BNA suffered any damage in last night's tornado? I see where John C. Tune was hit pretty hard.


According to the twitter thread, everything is ok at BNA.
 
WaywardMemphian
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Mar 03, 2020 2:59 pm

No damage to BNA from the tornados, Tune airport heavily damaged. At least 9 fatalities in the Nashville area, extensive damage in the area including downtown

Covid 19 deaths in US is 6, for some perspective.
 
ZazuPIT
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Mar 03, 2020 3:02 pm

Lots of $$$ worth of bizjets look like they got tossed around at Tune.
 
WaywardMemphian
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Mar 03, 2020 3:25 pm

I would expect delays as crews ateugfle to reach work with all the damage blocking roads.
 
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southwest1675
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Mar 03, 2020 4:05 pm

John Tune, BNA’s sister GA airport, was completely destroyed. Fuel fire erupted shortly after the tornado.
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UALFAson
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Mar 03, 2020 4:17 pm

southwest1675 wrote:
Thanks to Zed Fares, I nonreved on the short lived AA 738 flight from ORD-BNA. It was full both ways. I only got on because of no shows misconnecting in ORD. AA has a lot of potential in Nashville.


Interesting. This is a perfect example of why it's hard to draw conclusions from an n=1. I took the BNA-ORD segment twice as a 738 and both times the plane was half full at best. I knew it wasn't long for this world.

Same with BNA-DCA. AA added 1 319 roundtrip last fall that I took a couple of times that likewise was not even close to full the times I took it and subsequently got downgauged back to E-175s, which are fine for 90 minutes.
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UALFAson
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Mar 03, 2020 4:32 pm

tphuang wrote:
One thing that continues to surprise me looking at yield data is how WN still does not control BNA point of sale despite being the far and away largest carrier in terms of flights. It depends on quite a bit of connections to fill the aircraft. This would seem to indicate a lot of ff with legacy carriers.


Yes. I have no idea how/where to find numbers to prove this, but I think part of it is that there is a lot of international (Europe and Asia, in particular) business travel that takes place out of Nashville and WN obviously doesn't fly to either of those areas. If you're doing lots of long-haul travel (even to the U.S. West Coast), you want First Class upgrade potential and status and benefits from flying tens of thousands of miles a year.

As Cubsrule and other Nashvillians have pointed out on here, many travelers in BNA belong to 2 ff programs: usually WN and AA or DL. Anecdotally, in 7 years of living here, WN rarely has the cheapest price except for last-minute fares, although even then other airlines mostly now match. Sure, there's plenty of business people who still fly WN due to price, service, and reliability, but the other airlines offer enough frequency to their hubs that I don't think WN will ever be the runaway O&D carrier, even if they are by far the largest overall.
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