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qf789
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Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Dec 31, 2019 11:56 am

Welcome to Kentucky Aviation Thread 2020. Please continue to add your comments below

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kwp302
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Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Dec 31, 2019 3:56 pm

To pick up where we left off...

Expect to see big changes start happening at SDF this year.

SDF Next is now estimated at $400 million with the total investment in the airport topping $1 billion when UPS enhancements are factored in.

- Improvements to parking and rental car center will be completed in summer 2020
- Complete aesthetic overhaul, mechanical improvements in the next 18 months
- Seeking nonstop service to BOS, SLC, YYZ, SEA, and SFO with top priority being BOS
- Expected to be international port of entry in next 3-5 years to start bringing in international flights
 
747fan
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Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Jan 01, 2020 7:36 pm

Mesa starting 2020 out of SDF with a 4 hour delay (and still counting) on the 10:30AM DFW flight due to maintenance.
On a positive note, the LAX flight has seen very high loads both inbound and outbound so far with the new timing. The real test will be once the holiday travel spike settles down after this weekend, but its been encouraging so far. The flight still has a heavy majority of local traffic in each direction (generally less than 20 passengers connecting).
 
kwp302
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Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 02, 2020 12:33 am

747fan wrote:
Mesa starting 2020 out of SDF with a 4 hour delay (and still counting) on the 10:30AM DFW flight due to maintenance.

Ugh. I'm taking that flight at the end of January on my way to MAD. Have a 4h45m layover in DFW. Hoping that's enough :shock:
 
tnair1974
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Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 02, 2020 2:28 am

kwp302 wrote:
747fan wrote:
Mesa starting 2020 out of SDF with a 4 hour delay (and still counting) on the 10:30AM DFW flight due to maintenance.

Ugh. I'm taking that flight at the end of January on my way to MAD. Have a 4h45m layover in DFW. Hoping that's enough :shock:

My relatives often use WN's DAL-SDF both for business and to visit relatives in the area (and at least on one occasion to connect to/from SAT). They say the flights are pretty full. But probably no realistic chance of increased frequency as long as the MAX situation remains unresolved.

Granted, AA gives a world of connections at DFW. WN seems to be more focused on O&D at DAL, less on connections.
 
tnair1974
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Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 02, 2020 2:48 am

A Delta 767-300ER flew home the University of Kentucky football team CLT-LEX (UK won the Belk Bowl). The 763 was repositioned from and later back to CVG; maybe DL's CVG-CDG service was a no-op for the last day of 2019.
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/DAL ... /KCLT/KLEX
Beforehand (the day after Christmas), a 763 repositioned from (then back to) RDU was used to take UK LEX-CLT; perhaps DL's RDU-CDG flight was a no-op on Christmas day.

Western Kentucky University (which won the First Responders Bowl) appears to have used one or both of these outbound flights BNA-DAL.
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/SCX ... /KBNA/KDAL
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/AAY ... /KBNA/KDAL
No info on the return to Bowling Green, whether to BNA or BWG. When WKU/visiting teams do use BWG, they to my knowledge have utilized 738s, MD-80s, A320s and in decades past D93s, 721s, 722s, 732s.

As previously mentioned at the end of the 2019 thread, the University of Louisville likely bused to/from Nashville (UofL won the Music City Bowl).
 
747fan
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Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 02, 2020 3:14 am

tnair1974 wrote:
Ugh. I'm taking that flight at the end of January on my way to MAD. Have a 4h45m layover in DFW. Hoping that's enough :shock:

My relatives often use WN's DAL-SDF both for business and to visit relatives in the area (and at least on one occasion to connect to/from SAT). They say the flights are pretty full. But probably no realistic chance of increased frequency as long as the MAX situation remains unresolved.

Granted, AA gives a world of connections at DFW. WN seems to be more focused on O&D at DAL, less on connections.[/quote]

I've noticed DAL-SDF has been getting 738's lately so I'd imagine that's a good sign, although it seems to go back and forth frequently from the 73G. Same with HOU-SDF.
RE: Mesa/DFW, usually that 1031 flight (ASH5860) is the first turn of the day from DFW and is usually quite reliable (it was an originator today due to the holiday). That's the most frequent flight I take going both directions and haven't had any issues on it in a long time. Its the 0822 flight (ASH5788) that normally has the most issues, often at least once a week.
 
kwp302
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Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 02, 2020 3:04 pm

tnair1974 wrote:
Western Kentucky University (which won the First Responders Bowl) appears to have used one or both of these outbound flights BNA-DAL.
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/SCX ... /KBNA/KDAL
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/AAY ... /KBNA/KDAL
No info on the return to Bowling Green, whether to BNA or BWG. When WKU/visiting teams do use BWG, they to my knowledge have utilized 738s, MD-80s, A320s and in decades past D93s, 721s, 722s, 732s.

WKU usually flies an Allegiant A320 right of out BWG, so it was actually a bit unusual for them to go out of BNA. Perhaps because they had two planes for the bowl? Assuming they brought along more coach families, school admin, and boosters.
 
tnair1974
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Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 03, 2020 1:24 am

kwp302 wrote:
tnair1974 wrote:
Western Kentucky University (which won the First Responders Bowl) appears to have used one or both of these outbound flights BNA-DAL.
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/SCX ... /KBNA/KDAL
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/AAY ... /KBNA/KDAL
No info on the return to Bowling Green, whether to BNA or BWG. When WKU/visiting teams do use BWG, they to my knowledge have utilized 738s, MD-80s, A320s and in decades past D93s, 721s, 722s, 732s.

WKU usually flies an Allegiant A320 right of out BWG, so it was actually a bit unusual for them to go out of BNA. Perhaps because they had two planes for the bowl? Assuming they brought along more coach families, school admin, and boosters.

I've indeed tracked via the likes of Flightaware an Allegiant A320 into BWG. Also an MD-80 by some Miami operator that has since ceased operations (don't remember the name). In addition, a visiting team used a 737-300 (don't recall neither the team nor the air carrier, but turned out the plane was in Apple Vacations paint scheme).

I'm less up to speed for recent years at BWG. But at least in the years after 9/11, I understand it was often cheaper for WKU to fly out of BNA or SDF despite the added ground transportation expenses. Even if the same trip could still later return to BWG (apparently more security screening issues outbound vs inbound). This said, Bowling Green had the short-lived Contour Airlines BWG-ATL service a few years ago; if that security equipment is still around perhaps now BWG can easier screen outbound charters(??).

Also, IIRC the only deicing BWG had a decade ago was relatively small heated hangers (no deicing trucks). Thus BNA/SDF would be more reliable for 738 size planes during the cooler months. But surely better deicing equipment would have been needed for the Contour flights. Anyway, I don't know what deicing BWG currently has.

BTW, I went to my cousin's graduation at WKU many blue moons ago but even before that my uncle (who is a private pilot) and I had flown into BWG. Then just about a year ago my daughter and I toured WKU (she liked WKU but ended up going elsewhere) and we briefly stopped at BWG; it was amazing how much both WKU and BWG airport had changed. Yet downtown Bowling Green still looks a lot like it did maybe fifty years ago....even if there has been tremendous growth for the outskirts.
 
kwp302
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Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 03, 2020 4:53 am

Interesting speculation from Forbes:

"Here’s some forecast heresy: by 2025, transatlantic flights from midsize airports will be as routine as getting to Phoenix or Houston. New aircraft such as the Airbus A321XLR will make nonstop flights economically possible from points such as Albany, Grand Rapids, Louisville and Columbus. But the market criteria will be based on economic, not population, factors. These carrier systems are looking for business traffic, not vacationers."

Coincidentally, that 2025 mark lines up with the "3-5 years" mentioned for SDF to have Port of Entry facilities.

Full article: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeremyboga ... 8e7a688a94
 
flyguy89
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Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 03, 2020 6:19 am

kwp302 wrote:
Interesting speculation from Forbes:

"Here’s some forecast heresy: by 2025, transatlantic flights from midsize airports will be as routine as getting to Phoenix or Houston. New aircraft such as the Airbus A321XLR will make nonstop flights economically possible from points such as Albany, Grand Rapids, Louisville and Columbus. But the market criteria will be based on economic, not population, factors. These carrier systems are looking for business traffic, not vacationers."

Coincidentally, that 2025 mark lines up with the "3-5 years" mentioned for SDF to have Port of Entry facilities.

Full article: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeremyboga ... 8e7a688a94

It's actually from Boyde, a re-hash of his earlier predictions.
 
Bluegrass60
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Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 03, 2020 6:01 pm

SDF Next is exciting...especially the establishment of FIS. I see int'l service to YYZ 1st....then once FIS is up...CUN and other destinations in Mexico, Caribbean. Agree with Boyd that TATL from markets like SDF could be a reality in 3-5 years. Louisville Metro economic growth needs to continue and to also accelerate; combined with forecast tourism growth to 25M by 2025 (up from 16.4M in 2019) will likely result in domestic market adds to BOS, SEA, SFO and others....and that TATL service....while needing FC and BC fares....also has a lot of Y seats to fill. UK, IRE particularly would appreciate the horse and bourbon experiences offered in the Louisville/Lex regions. 2020 just continues the growth that has been building the past few years. Also, impact of UPS on SDF and the metro area will continue to grow. Would be nice to see UPS HQ their new Drone division in Louisville....

Lastly, a lot of this momentum at SDF is the result of Dan Mann and his staff. It seems that everything is coming together at the right time!
 
tnair1974
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Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Jan 05, 2020 1:08 am

Speaking of Bowling Green and Western Kentucky University, I stumbled across this interesting if brief 2013 video of a Delta 738 on short final to BWG's Runway 3.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BdEM1AGKm9g
It was bringing the Navy football team in to play WKU.

I'm sure Bowling Green residents would love for this to be a regular sight. Unfortunately, despite Bowling Green's rapid growth, neither DL nor any other legacy carrier has show interest in BWG. Not even with using the likes of DL Connection. Other than the recent Contour flights, BWG has not had air service since Air Kentucky/Allegheny Commuter back in the 1970s. Before that, Eastern Airlines brought in flights that later included the Lockheed Electra and if I recall correctly the occasional DC-9.
 
kwp302
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Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Jan 05, 2020 2:03 am

tnair1974 wrote:
Speaking of Bowling Green and Western Kentucky University, I stumbled across this interesting if brief 2013 video of a Delta 738 on short final to BWG's Runway 3.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BdEM1AGKm9g
It was bringing the Navy football team in to play WKU.

I'm sure Bowling Green residents would love for this to be a regular sight. Unfortunately, despite Bowling Green's rapid growth, neither DL nor any other legacy carrier has show interest in BWG. Not even with using the likes of DL Connection. Other than the recent Contour flights, BWG has not had air service since Air Kentucky/Allegheny Commuter back in the 1970s. Before that, Eastern Airlines brought in flights that later included the Lockheed Electra and if I recall correctly the occasional DC-9.

About the only commercial service I could see for BWG would be seasonal Allegiant flights. BNA is a fairly easy drive down I-65 with plenty of flight options.
 
kwp302
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Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 3:43 pm

Total passengers for SDF in November 2019 decreased by 1.44% versus November 2018. Very surprising considering every other month in 2019 had significant growth (anywhere from 7% to 14%). YTD (Jan - Nov) total of 3,904,601 - a 9.80% increase versus 2018.
 
jasoncrh
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Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 3:52 pm

Part of this can be explained by the fact that the busiest travel day of the year - the Sunday after Thanksgiving - was on December 1, not in November.

But besides that, there must be other reasons for the decline. Not good.

kwp302 wrote:
Total passengers for SDF in November 2019 decreased by 1.44% versus November 2018. Very surprising considering every other month in 2019 had significant growth (anywhere from 7% to 14%). YTD (Jan - Nov) total of 3,904,601 - a 9.80% increase versus 2018.
 
kwp302
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Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 4:35 pm

jasoncrh wrote:
Part of this can be explained by the fact that the busiest travel day of the year - the Sunday after Thanksgiving - was on December 1, not in November.

That is a very good point. It'll be interesting to see if the December numbers reflect that.
 
jasoncrh
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Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 4:50 pm

Also - I looked at the actual statistics page where it broke down the enplanements versus deplanements on the flylouisville.com website. you'll see that deplanements - arrivals - were almost even with those in november 2018. The biggest change was in enplanements - boardings. Losing that one day to December probably had a big impact on this.

kwp302 wrote:
jasoncrh wrote:
Part of this can be explained by the fact that the busiest travel day of the year - the Sunday after Thanksgiving - was on December 1, not in November.

That is a very good point. It'll be interesting to see if the December numbers reflect that.
 
Bluegrass60
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Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 5:01 pm

Thanksgiving was late as posted. December will likely show significant growth v Dec 2018. I project FY 2019 to be a record 4.2M+ total passengers and the 3rd year in a row of positive growth (3.8% to 11.2% to 9.8%). Suspect 2020 overall growth to be in the 3% range unless Spirit arrives and/or growth from existing ULCCs which would cause that to accelerate.
 
Bluegrass60
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Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 5:26 pm

jasoncrh wrote:
Also - I looked at the actual statistics page where it broke down the enplanements versus deplanements on the flylouisville.com website. you'll see that deplanements - arrivals - were almost even with those in november 2018. The biggest change was in enplanements - boardings. Losing that one day to December probably had a big impact on this.

kwp302 wrote:
jasoncrh wrote:
Part of this can be explained by the fact that the busiest travel day of the year - the Sunday after Thanksgiving - was on December 1, not in November.

That is a very good point. It'll be interesting to see if the December numbers reflect that.


"Also, 12/1 will reflect big deplanements AND enplanements (boardings) because it is all consolidated to one day vs spread over a few days prior to Turkey Day."

As I posted before....still think we 4.2M+ for 2019....beats the next biggest year (2000) by @300k pax.
 
Bluegrass60
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Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 11:25 pm

Boyd Group International (aviation consultant) suggests 2020 will continue these themes:
- United Airlines is implementing a new regional air service product – 70 seat jets with just 50 seats and up-rated cabin service…
SDF is on the list with service to ORD
– Delta is retiring its fleet of MD-88s, MD-90s and B-717s. They’re bringing in new-generation, multi-mission A220s…
Have yet to see DL schedule A220's on ATL or any other route at SDF....the A220 can fly from SDF to anywhere in the continental US..
– Southwest is likely to be on the prowl for additional domestic destinations, once the 737MAX is back in service…
Would like to see WN re-start SDF-STL; SDF-BHM and SDF-ATL....maybe to/from SDF on to MKE, GRR???
– ULCCs such as Frontier and Spirit have a lot of new aircraft on order, and their expansion criteria are changing materially…
Will Spirit start at SDF in 2020? Will Frontier make any adds? How about Allegiant?
– With the arrival of multi-mission and trans-Atlantic capable airliners such as the A-321XLR, U.S. non-hubsite airports are going to see new international flights – and these will alter the air service patterns in whole regions.
Boyd has suggested that non-hubsite airports like SDF..."could" see TATL in 3-5 years.

Maybe some discussion starters for this thread?
 
ibthebigd
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Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 11:47 pm

I would like to see Southwest go Double Daily on SDF-DEN PHX or LAS.

I would like to see Delta add BOS and SLC.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 
atrude777
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Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 11:56 pm

United Airlines is changing the Ground Handler in SDF.

United Ground Express will be taking over DGS for United in SDF effective January 30th.

I am actually in SDF all month training the UGE Agents and will be here for the transition as well.

Looking forward to spending some time in SDF!

I am well familiar with Kentucky, I started with SkyWest in good old Paducah-PAH back in 2012!

Alex
Good things come to those who wait, better things come to those who go AFTER it!
 
jplatts
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Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Jan 07, 2020 12:11 am

Bluegrass60 wrote:
Boyd Group International (aviation consultant) suggests 2020 will continue these themes:
– Delta is retiring its fleet of MD-88s, MD-90s and B-717s. They’re bringing in new-generation, multi-mission A220s…
Have yet to see DL schedule A220's on ATL or any other route at SDF....the A220 can fly from SDF to anywhere in the continental US..


DL adding SDF-BOS nonstop service will likely happen with the lack of SDF-BOS nonstop service being one of the biggest holes in both the SDF and BOS markets. There has already been discussion of YX operating SDF-BOS nonstop service on behalf of DL due to YX bases at both BOS and SDF.

DL adding SDF-SLC nonstop service is a possibility with MSP being the westernmost hub that DL currently serves nonstop from SDF. DL could also operate regional jets on SDF-SLC since (a) SDF-SLC is within the range of regional jets and (b) DL currently operates regional jets on nonstop routes longer than SDF-SLC.

In addition to SDF-BOS and SDF-SLC, DL adding SDF-LAX nonstop service might be a possibility with SDF-Greater LA still being underserved, even with AA already serving LAX nonstop from SDF. Both DL and AA also already serve LAX from a few nearby markets such as IND, CMH, and BNA. DL can also use an A220 on SDF-LAX if it adds nonstop service to LAX out of SDF.

Bluegrass60 wrote:
– Southwest is likely to be on the prowl for additional domestic destinations, once the 737MAX is back in service…
Would like to see WN re-start SDF-STL; SDF-BHM and SDF-ATL....maybe to/from SDF on to MKE, GRR???


While I agree that WN re-adding SDF-STL nonstop service is a possibility with WN having already re-added STL-CLE, STL-LIT, and STL-SLC nonstop service and with WN still expanding at STL, WN probably will not bring back SDF-BHM nonstop service anytime soon.

WN re-adding SDF-ATL might be a possibility with WN having recently added ATL-CHS/MEM/ORF/ECP nonstop service.

Bluegrass60 wrote:
– ULCCs such as Frontier and Spirit have a lot of new aircraft on order, and their expansion criteria are changing materially…
Will Spirit start at SDF in 2020? Will Frontier make any adds? How about Allegiant?


F9 adding SDF-LAS nonstop service might be a possibility since (a) F9 has recently added additional nonstop routes out of LAS and (b) SDF is one of the largest markets that F9 doesn't currently serve nonstop from LAS.
 
tnair1974
Posts: 132
Joined: Sun Sep 15, 2019 5:37 pm

Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Jan 07, 2020 12:56 am

kwp302 wrote:
tnair1974 wrote:
Speaking of Bowling Green and Western Kentucky University, I stumbled across this interesting if brief 2013 video of a Delta 738 on short final to BWG's Runway 3.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BdEM1AGKm9g
It was bringing the Navy football team in to play WKU.

I'm sure Bowling Green residents would love for this to be a regular sight. Unfortunately, despite Bowling Green's rapid growth, neither DL nor any other legacy carrier has show interest in BWG. Not even with using the likes of DL Connection. Other than the recent Contour flights, BWG has not had air service since Air Kentucky/Allegheny Commuter back in the 1970s. Before that, Eastern Airlines brought in flights that later included the Lockheed Electra and if I recall correctly the occasional DC-9.

About the only commercial service I could see for BWG would be seasonal Allegiant flights. BNA is a fairly easy drive down I-65 with plenty of flight options.

:checkmark:

With G4 recently starting service at BNA, that might make G4's possibilities at BWG a little less still. Allegiant also flies to SDF and even OWB. However, it's a pleasant surprise G4 still serves OWB despite also flying into nearby EVV.

Not to mention how 50 seater passenger jets by the likes of DL Connection are gradually becoming less relevant. CR2s and E45s have relatively high per seat operating costs, and the "new" CRJ550 is largely a rehash of the old CR7. Any future oil spikes could exacerbate this situation even more.

BWG seems in a similar predicament as CKV (Clarksville TN, which had Ozark Airlines back in the day) and other towns that may be too close to much larger airports. Even with Bowling Green and Clarksville TN (just south of the KY line) experiencing robust growth, chances look slim at the moment for any scheduled flights.

On the other hand, PAH is relatively isolated thus it hangs on to United Express PAH-ORD.
 
tnair1974
Posts: 132
Joined: Sun Sep 15, 2019 5:37 pm

Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Jan 07, 2020 1:15 am

Interestingly, UA Express cut back to only one daily DEN-SDF flight during the recent Christmas/New Year period. Today, the second flight returned.

Guessing that the second plane and/or the pilots/cabin crews were needed elsewhere. And/or this was UA limiting low yield holiday traffic. Now that business traffic (higher yields) is returning, apparently the reason the second flight is back.
 
tnair1974
Posts: 132
Joined: Sun Sep 15, 2019 5:37 pm

Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Jan 07, 2020 1:45 am

Bluegrass60 wrote:
Boyd Group International (aviation consultant) suggests 2020 will continue these themes:
- United Airlines is implementing a new regional air service product – 70 seat jets with just 50 seats and up-rated cabin service…
SDF is on the list with service to ORD
– Delta is retiring its fleet of MD-88s, MD-90s and B-717s. They’re bringing in new-generation, multi-mission A220s…
Have yet to see DL schedule A220's on ATL or any other route at SDF....the A220 can fly from SDF to anywhere in the continental US..
– Southwest is likely to be on the prowl for additional domestic destinations, once the 737MAX is back in service…
Would like to see WN re-start SDF-STL; SDF-BHM and SDF-ATL....maybe to/from SDF on to MKE, GRR???
– ULCCs such as Frontier and Spirit have a lot of new aircraft on order, and their expansion criteria are changing materially…
Will Spirit start at SDF in 2020? Will Frontier make any adds? How about Allegiant?
– With the arrival of multi-mission and trans-Atlantic capable airliners such as the A-321XLR, U.S. non-hubsite airports are going to see new international flights – and these will alter the air service patterns in whole regions.
Boyd has suggested that non-hubsite airports like SDF..."could" see TATL in 3-5 years.

Maybe some discussion starters for this thread?

Wonder if F9 will try AUS-SDF again? Make DEN-SDF year round?

If fuel prices stay calm, perhaps the likes of SDF-STL and IND-STL could return like LIT-STL has. But WN might be concerned SDF-STL could take some traffic away from SDF-DEN/PHX/LAS. Also, would SDF-STL offer many unique opportunities (like to ICT) that SDF-MDW can't? WN at MEM has MEM-MDW but not MEM-STL.

At this time, DL is expected to retire the MD-88 at the end of this year or early 2021. The MD-90s will leave in 2023. So Mad Dog fans don't have much longer to catch a few more rides. But the 717s will stay around a little longer (even talks of a modest cabin upgrade) as their twilight will be spent on short hauls (like ATL-CHA/TYS/BHM) while A220s will deploy on much longer routes. Perhaps 220s could ultimately be used on the likes of SDF-SLC/BOS.
 
tnair1974
Posts: 132
Joined: Sun Sep 15, 2019 5:37 pm

Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Jan 11, 2020 12:50 am

UPS's SDF-DXB flights often fly over Iraq very near the Iranian border. Witness this track before recent hostilities (and the apparent, horrific Ukrainian airliner shootdown) commenced...
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/UPS ... /KSDF/OMDB

Same flight a day later...
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/UPS ... /KSDF/OMDB
 
tnair1974
Posts: 132
Joined: Sun Sep 15, 2019 5:37 pm

Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Jan 11, 2020 12:53 am

tnair1974 wrote:
Bluegrass60 wrote:
Boyd Group International (aviation consultant) suggests 2020 will continue these themes:
- United Airlines is implementing a new regional air service product – 70 seat jets with just 50 seats and up-rated cabin service…
SDF is on the list with service to ORD
– Delta is retiring its fleet of MD-88s, MD-90s and B-717s. They’re bringing in new-generation, multi-mission A220s…
Have yet to see DL schedule A220's on ATL or any other route at SDF....the A220 can fly from SDF to anywhere in the continental US..
– Southwest is likely to be on the prowl for additional domestic destinations, once the 737MAX is back in service…
Would like to see WN re-start SDF-STL; SDF-BHM and SDF-ATL....maybe to/from SDF on to MKE, GRR???
– ULCCs such as Frontier and Spirit have a lot of new aircraft on order, and their expansion criteria are changing materially…
Will Spirit start at SDF in 2020? Will Frontier make any adds? How about Allegiant?
– With the arrival of multi-mission and trans-Atlantic capable airliners such as the A-321XLR, U.S. non-hubsite airports are going to see new international flights – and these will alter the air service patterns in whole regions.
Boyd has suggested that non-hubsite airports like SDF..."could" see TATL in 3-5 years.

Maybe some discussion starters for this thread?

Wonder if F9 will try AUS-SDF again? Make DEN-SDF year round?

If fuel prices stay calm, perhaps the likes of SDF-STL and IND-STL could return like LIT-STL has. But WN might be concerned SDF-STL could take some traffic away from SDF-DEN/PHX/LAS. Also, would SDF-STL offer many unique opportunities (like to ICT) that SDF-MDW can't? WN at MEM has MEM-MDW but not MEM-STL.

At this time, DL is expected to retire the MD-88 at the end of this year or early 2021. The MD-90s will leave in 2023. So Mad Dog fans don't have much longer to catch a few more rides. But the 717s will stay around a little longer (even talks of a modest cabin upgrade) as their twilight will be spent on short hauls (like ATL-CHA/TYS/BHM) while A220s will deploy on much longer routes. Perhaps 220s could ultimately be used on the likes of SDF-SLC/BOS.

Whoops, the DL MD-90s will retire in 2022, not 2023. At least this is the current timetable.
 
kwp302
Posts: 101
Joined: Thu Feb 28, 2019 4:59 pm

Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Jan 12, 2020 8:38 pm

Delta is sending a 763 to SDF today. DL8966. FlightAware says it's going to gate A10. Anyone know what the charter is for?

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/DAL ... /KONT/KSDF
 
tnair1974
Posts: 132
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Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jan 13, 2020 2:15 am

kwp302 wrote:
Delta is sending a 763 to SDF today. DL8966. FlightAware says it's going to gate A10. Anyone know what the charter is for?

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/DAL ... /KONT/KSDF

Hmm, not sure. I'm many years out of date, but I don't recall Ft Knox military charters at SDF from California using ONT. Can't imagine off the bat any sports charters at SDF needing a 763 this time of year.

TWA had what was the tip of what is now the A concourse. TW L-1011s and American Trans Air L-1011s did military charters from one of the TW gates there (think it was Gate 14 back then but my memory is vague). There were at least a few Tower Air and TW 747s that did Ft Knox charters but IIRC they were served remotely away from the terminal. Think all this was before Ft Knox was downsized.

As a side note, I happened to notice that AA has mainline again from DFW. AA did the same thing with other similar size stations like LIT and BHM in dropping mainline just before the holidays then bringing it back after the new year.
 
kwp302
Posts: 101
Joined: Thu Feb 28, 2019 4:59 pm

Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jan 13, 2020 3:55 am

tnair1974 wrote:
kwp302 wrote:
Delta is sending a 763 to SDF today. DL8966. FlightAware says it's going to gate A10. Anyone know what the charter is for?

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/DAL ... /KONT/KSDF

Hmm, not sure. I'm many years out of date, but I don't recall Ft Knox military charters at SDF from California using ONT. Can't imagine off the bat any sports charters at SDF needing a 763 this time of year.

TWA had what was the tip of what is now the A concourse. TW L-1011s and American Trans Air L-1011s did military charters from one of the TW gates there (think it was Gate 14 back then but my memory is vague). There were at least a few Tower Air and TW 747s that did Ft Knox charters but IIRC they were served remotely away from the terminal. Think all this was before Ft Knox was downsized.


It ended up parking over at the west cargo ramp and then continued on to ATL. Still unsure of the use. Military charter is my only guess as well. There's been a fair amount of activity at the Guard base the last couple of weeks. Even a few RAF transport planes. KYANG recently requested that no pictures to be taken of the base or any military aircraft anywhere on the airfield.

tnair1974 wrote:
As a side note, I happened to notice that AA has mainline again from DFW. AA did the same thing with other similar size stations like LIT and BHM in dropping mainline just before the holidays then bringing it back after the new year.

Noticed this as well. Looks like its the afternoon turn and runs 3x a week? Doesn't seem consistent on the schedule yet.
 
ibthebigd
Posts: 310
Joined: Sat Nov 11, 2017 12:12 pm

Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jan 13, 2020 10:49 pm

Saw on the SDF Facebook page a new destination will be announced soon. It will be there 33rd destination.

My guess is BOS.

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zackary747
Posts: 695
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Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jan 13, 2020 11:03 pm

ibthebigd wrote:
Saw on the SDF Facebook page a new destination will be announced soon. It will be there 33rd destination.

My guess is BOS.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk


I wonder if Allegiant is announcing routes tomorrow.
Indianapolis Airport Spotter

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kwp302
Posts: 101
Joined: Thu Feb 28, 2019 4:59 pm

Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jan 13, 2020 11:13 pm

It’s important that the Facebook post says “a new city”

So it’s not AA to PHX or DL to JFK or something like that
 
jplatts
Posts: 3219
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jan 13, 2020 11:21 pm

kwp302 wrote:
It’s important that the Facebook post says “a new city”

So it’s not AA to PHX or DL to JFK or something like that


zackary747 wrote:
ibthebigd wrote:
Saw on the SDF Facebook page a new destination will be announced soon. It will be there 33rd destination.

My guess is BOS.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk


I wonder if Allegiant is announcing routes tomorrow.


G4 adding SDF-CHS nonstop service might be a possibility with CHS being one of the few major leisure destinations served by G4 that isn't currently served nonstop out of SDF on any airline. G4 also already has seasonal nonstop service to CHS from a few nearby markets such as CVG, CMH, and IND.
 
ibthebigd
Posts: 310
Joined: Sat Nov 11, 2017 12:12 pm

Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jan 13, 2020 11:24 pm

Once I saw GRR has an announcement tomorrow I figured CHS or JAX would be possible Image

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jplatts
Posts: 3219
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jan 13, 2020 11:26 pm

ibthebigd wrote:
Saw on the SDF Facebook page a new destination will be announced soon. It will be there 33rd destination.

My guess is BOS.


I agree that DL adding SDF-BOS nonstop service might be a possibility with the lack of SDF-BOS nonstop service being one of the biggest holes in both the SDF and BOS markets. DL also already has nonstop service out of BOS to a few domestic destinations not served by B6 such as CVG, CMH, IND, MCI, MKE, and ORF.

DL adding SDF-SLC nonstop service is also a possibility with (a) DL recently announcing the return of MEM-SLC nonstop service in July 2020 and (b) SDF being located in one of the largest markets without any nonstop service to SLC. I had also previously mentioned that SDF-SLC is within the range of E-175 regional jets as DL Connection operates nonstop routes longer than SDF-SLC on E-175 regional jets.
 
kwp302
Posts: 101
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Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jan 13, 2020 11:32 pm

Can confirm it is not BOS.
 
Bluegrass60
Posts: 408
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Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jan 13, 2020 11:39 pm

My guesses: UA to SFO or DL to BOS or WN to STL
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Jan 14, 2020 12:10 am

US3 don't announce on Tuesdays & WN doesn't have a schedule extension this month. 95% chance it is F9 or G4
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kwp302
Posts: 101
Joined: Thu Feb 28, 2019 4:59 pm

Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Jan 14, 2020 12:14 am

Midwestindy wrote:
US3 don't announce on Tuesdays & WN doesn't have a schedule extension this month. 95% chance it is F9 or G4

Air Canada the other 5% ? :D
 
ibthebigd
Posts: 310
Joined: Sat Nov 11, 2017 12:12 pm

Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Jan 14, 2020 9:38 am

Looks like its Allegiant to CHS.

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Ishrion
Posts: 1674
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 6:17 am

Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Jan 14, 2020 9:42 am

Midwestindy wrote:
US3 don't announce on Tuesdays & WN doesn't have a schedule extension this month. 95% chance it is F9 or G4


Actually Tuesday is usually when AA announces new routes.
 
kwp302
Posts: 101
Joined: Thu Feb 28, 2019 4:59 pm

Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Jan 14, 2020 1:06 pm

Allegiant to CHS. Seasonal on Monday and Friday. Starting May 22.

https://www.wdrb.com/news/allegiant-ann ... 8a052.html
 
kwp302
Posts: 101
Joined: Thu Feb 28, 2019 4:59 pm

Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Jan 14, 2020 3:42 pm

kwp302 wrote:
Allegiant to CHS. Seasonal on Monday and Friday. Starting May 22.

https://www.wdrb.com/news/allegiant-ann ... 8a052.html


Inbound 4:53p - 6:25p
Outbound 7:15p - 8:41p
 
tnair1974
Posts: 132
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Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Jan 15, 2020 1:34 am

Besides the CHS-SDF route, Allegiant will add HOU, MDW and BOS as brand new destinations on the G4 network. WN of course already has SDF-HOU and SDF-MDW, but a little surprised G4 didn't try SDF-BOS. Then again, SDF-BOS would probably be mainly a business route despite the tourism on both ends so might be better to let DL Connection resume BOS-SDF.

Also a little surprised LEX did not get any new G4 routes. Allegiant did have summer LEX-BWI a few years ago, but that route did not come back. G4 also had LEX-LAS and am a little puzzled that this route has not returned. G4 had no competition LEX-LAS and LEX-BWI.
 
jplatts
Posts: 3219
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Jan 15, 2020 2:20 am

tnair1974 wrote:
Also a little surprised LEX did not get any new G4 routes. Allegiant did have summer LEX-BWI a few years ago, but that route did not come back. G4 also had LEX-LAS and am a little puzzled that this route has not returned. G4 had no competition LEX-LAS and LEX-BWI.


WN already serves BWI from both SDF and CVG, and LEX still has nonstop service to IAD on UA and DCA on DL. AA also offers 1-stop connecting service to BWI from LEX through its CLT hub.

While BWI is no longer served nonstop from LEX, there are still other options for getting to the Baltimore/DC market from the Lexington, KY market, including LEX-IAD/DCA nonstop flights, connecting options on AA through CLT, and nonstop flights to BWI, DCA, and IAD out of SDF and CVG.

While fares on connecting flights to LAS are higher from LEX than from other markets, the PDEW on LEX-LAS was only 20 passengers per day in Q3 2019. While LAS is no longer served nonstop from LEX, the lack of LAS-LEX nonstop service is not as huge of an hole as the lack of LAS-ALB, LAS-CHS, LAS-RSW, LAS-BDL, LAS-JAX, LAS-RIC, LAS-ROC, or LAS-SYR nonstop service.
 
kwp302
Posts: 101
Joined: Thu Feb 28, 2019 4:59 pm

Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Jan 15, 2020 2:46 pm

Data here for the top 50 unserved city pairs in the US:
https://www.anna.aero/2020/01/13/usas-t ... assengers/
SDF doesn't make the list.
 
Bluegrass60
Posts: 408
Joined: Wed Feb 21, 2018 1:15 am

Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Jan 15, 2020 7:11 pm

kwp302 wrote:
Data here for the top 50 unserved city pairs in the US:
https://www.anna.aero/2020/01/13/usas-t ... assengers/
SDF doesn't make the list.


"I think I read where the data cited is at least 10 years old.."

Noticed AA made some adds from BOS to RDU, etc. Perhaps AA, DL, WN and B6 are now options for BOS-SDF? DL is most likely in my opinion.

Nice to get the CHS add from G4. Press release cited 'iconic cities'....wonder how much CHS will send to SDF to visit? If Louisville continues to increase tourism (to 25M by 2025)....maybe G4 keeps adding flights??

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