Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

 
tphuang
Posts: 5328
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sat May 02, 2020 10:41 pm

UALifer wrote:
Interesting that the 757/67 base is closing at LAX & SFO. That would seem to indicate they don’t plan to bring back the any of the 757s to transcontinental p.s. or Hawaii service. I wonder if this will be mostly widebody service going forward, at least on the transcons. Same with SFO/LAX-ORD and what was essentially hourly 757-300 service. I suppose that could go to all 737s though.


So they've already taken away flat bed from EWR-SFO/LAX outside of a couple of 787-10. And since they are not taking MAX for a while, there is no new single aisle lie flat aircraft coming in. That tells me 2 things a year from now.
1) EWR-SFO/LAX will be a mix of 737s and 787X and 777s. It will not be all lie flat for a while on these 2 routes.
2) BOS-LAX is probably going to get dropped and BOS-SFO is no longer going to PS.
 
Sooner787
Posts: 2720
Joined: Thu Jul 18, 2013 1:44 am

Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sat May 02, 2020 11:14 pm

LAXdude1023 wrote:
Pi7472000 wrote:
I could see IAH being trimmed down quite a bit. Very little traffic to Latin America, a city built around oil, and too far south for U.S. connecting traffic. UA has never been historically strong in South America. Let AA and Delta have that traffic.


That’s not the first time you’ve put out that opinion and it’s I’ll informed and ridiculous.

IAH will be trimmed. Every hub will. To give up on IAH is to give up on Latin America and IAH is a MASSIVE O&D base in Latin America. The biggest outside Florida, NYC, and LA in the US.


You're assuming AA survives this storm ........ Chances are very good they'll have to file CH 11 BK again,
and with the long term declines in traffic predicted, AA could be chopped up in BK court with UA and
DL taking parts of AA's operations
 
Nicknuzzii
Posts: 1235
Joined: Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:57 pm

Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sat May 02, 2020 11:22 pm

Is LAX longhaul done permanently?
 
User avatar
adamblang
Posts: 1259
Joined: Sat Jul 19, 2008 5:47 pm

Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sun May 03, 2020 12:03 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
IAH will be trimmed. Every hub will. To give up on IAH is to give up on Latin America and IAH is a MASSIVE O&D base in Latin America. The biggest outside Florida, NYC, and LA in the US.


That's interesting. Can you point to a source that shows IAH O&D numbers by region?

This isn't quite what you're asking but this investor deck says 57% of UA's ASMs are domestic, 18% are Atlantic, 15% are Pacific, and 10% are Latin.

Sure there's service to Latin America from most of the hubs but none of them have anywhere near the breadth or frequency IAH does.

By my count, there are 14 mainland Central/South American EWR destinations vs. 39 IAH destinations. And most of the EWR destinations are once daily or less-than-daily vs. IAH's multiple times a day. (None of the rest of the hubs come anywhere near IAH's or EWR's Latin America service.)

Giving up IAH would be giving up nearly 10% of UA's traffic.

Nicknuzzii wrote:
Is LAX longhaul done permanently?

Nothing in this industry is permanent.
 
User avatar
LAXintl
Posts: 24710
Joined: Wed May 24, 2000 12:12 pm

Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sun May 03, 2020 12:14 am

Nicknuzzii wrote:
Is LAX longhaul done permanently?


At the moment there is nothing planned from LAX longhaul until Sept when Tokyo is scheduled to return and the rest like SYD, MEL, PVG, and LHR were previously cancelled until W20 schedule (late Oct).

Who knows what will really come back, but ultimately you don't need a local crew base as other bases can operate the flights. Also, there is no reason why a base cant be reopened in the future when the economy and traffic pick up again.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
jayunited
Posts: 2961
Joined: Sat Jan 05, 2013 12:03 am

Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sun May 03, 2020 12:58 am

tphuang wrote:
So they've already taken away flat bed from EWR-SFO/LAX outside of a couple of 787-10. And since they are not taking MAX for a while, there is no new single aisle lie flat aircraft coming in. That tells me 2 things a year from now.
1) EWR-SFO/LAX will be a mix of 737s and 787X and 777s. It will not be all lie flat for a while on these 2 routes.
2) BOS-LAX is probably going to get dropped and BOS-SFO is no longer going to PS.


Quite a few assumptions based on very little evidence or temporary circumstances.

You are assuming UA's 757 will not return to the fleet, even though UA has not officially announced any fleet retirements so it is a bit premature to jump to conclusion and say no 757s on these routes a year from now.
The Points Guys article is completely misinterpreting Kirbys comments when he stated no sacred cows or hubs. What he actually was talking about and clarified in the town hall is all hubs will be effected by this crisis when UA comes out on the other side no one hub will be spared. People have been predicting the collapse of UA at LAX for over a decade now and yet LAX is still a UA hub.
United will take delivery of the MAX as soon as the plane is re-certified, however between whenever the plane is re-certified and the end of 2021 UA will only take delivery of about 40-45 frames.
UA's MAX10s will have lie flat seating so to say BOS-SFO will no longer be a PS route is quite the stretch. What we know about the MAX is this 14 frames were delivered and are in storage. Looking at UA's past aircraft delivery schedule (March 2019 - December 2019) there are 24 additional MAX9 frames built ready for delivery once re-certified. This leaves at least 16 frames which have not yet been built by Boeing if UA will only take 40-45 frames between now and the end of 2021. Which variant of the MAX will those remaining 16 frames be no one knows. I'm sure in the coming weeks or months as UA negotiates with Boeing we will find out if the MAX10 will enter service with UA in 2021.

Now I'm going to make a few assumptions of my own and say this knowing UA's operation I don't see UA retiring the entire 757 fleet until enough MAX10s are on the property to cover EWR-SFO/LAX and BOS-SFO. The 737NGs struggle on these transcon routes during the dead of winter heading westbound when they are fighting a strong headwind. Many times UA had to do fuel stops which added at least an hour to the total flight time. As we get into the recovery phase of this crisis having to make a fuel stop on transcons puts UA at a disadvantage and it is one we can't afford.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5328
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sun May 03, 2020 1:43 am

jayunited wrote:
tphuang wrote:
So they've already taken away flat bed from EWR-SFO/LAX outside of a couple of 787-10. And since they are not taking MAX for a while, there is no new single aisle lie flat aircraft coming in. That tells me 2 things a year from now.
1) EWR-SFO/LAX will be a mix of 737s and 787X and 777s. It will not be all lie flat for a while on these 2 routes.
2) BOS-LAX is probably going to get dropped and BOS-SFO is no longer going to PS.


Quite a few assumptions based on very little evidence or temporary circumstances.

You are assuming UA's 757 will not return to the fleet, even though UA has not officially announced any fleet retirements so it is a bit premature to jump to conclusion and say no 757s on these routes a year from now.
The Points Guys article is completely misinterpreting Kirbys comments when he stated no sacred cows or hubs. What he actually was talking about and clarified in the town hall is all hubs will be effected by this crisis when UA comes out on the other side no one hub will be spared. People have been predicting the collapse of UA at LAX for over a decade now and yet LAX is still a UA hub.
United will take delivery of the MAX as soon as the plane is re-certified, however between whenever the plane is re-certified and the end of 2021 UA will only take delivery of about 40-45 frames.
UA's MAX10s will have lie flat seating so to say BOS-SFO will no longer be a PS route is quite the stretch. What we know about the MAX is this 14 frames were delivered and are in storage. Looking at UA's past aircraft delivery schedule (March 2019 - December 2019) there are 24 additional MAX9 frames built ready for delivery once re-certified. This leaves at least 16 frames which have not yet been built by Boeing if UA will only take 40-45 frames between now and the end of 2021. Which variant of the MAX will those remaining 16 frames be no one knows. I'm sure in the coming weeks or months as UA negotiates with Boeing we will find out if the MAX10 will enter service with UA in 2021.

Now I'm going to make a few assumptions of my own and say this knowing UA's operation I don't see UA retiring the entire 757 fleet until enough MAX10s are on the property to cover EWR-SFO/LAX and BOS-SFO. The 737NGs struggle on these transcon routes during the dead of winter heading westbound when they are fighting a strong headwind. Many times UA had to do fuel stops which added at least an hour to the total flight time. As we get into the recovery phase of this crisis having to make a fuel stop on transcons puts UA at a disadvantage and it is one we can't afford.


Fair enough.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/united-c ... 52361.html
Based on here, they will take the 22 more, 16 of which this year. Given that MAX 10 has not made its first flight yet, the odds any of this will be PS is very low. Boeing has a long line of stored MAX 8. They are going to deliver those before building new MAX 10s. And based on UA's comment, I'm not expecting any more MAX delivery after that for a while. UA will have a lot of debt to pay back and fuel is cheap. Not great time for purchasing new aircraft.

If displacement bids have been run for 757 pilots, that probably explains why EWR-SFO/LAX flights are now on 737s/787s. Will the remaining 757s/767s out of EWR be How much does it cost to retrain these pilots for 757s later? Will these pilots be furloughed?
 
Nicknuzzii
Posts: 1235
Joined: Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:57 pm

Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sun May 03, 2020 2:02 am

A pilot posted that the 757s are gone, anyone got any update on this?
 
strfyr51
Posts: 5030
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2012 5:04 pm

Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sun May 03, 2020 2:20 am

mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
GmoneyCO wrote:
jayunited wrote:
calpsafltskeds wrote:
jay, that's a great rundown of the situation with light loads on a long haul. I just wonder how other flights UA has flown in and out of Mod or maint in HKG or XMN are handled. I know UA tries to make a swap in Asia to a regular flight to minimize long ferries, but tracking the fleet for a few years, there have been lots of ferries in and out of mod that have flown to/from as far as ORD, IAH or EWR. Do these ferries have to take ballast in the back bins? Maybe the lack of any load reduces the fuel requirement? Or, maybe cargo is loaded since there's always a lot coming out of Asia, but westbounds should be more critical with longer flight times and probably little cargo demand.


UA does not operated scheduled or charter service out of XMN, there are times when ballast is necessary if that is case what UA has done in the past is send an empty pallet stack. Also for aircraft going to/from XMN for Polaris/PE modification if the aircraft is nose heavy load planners can ask the dispatcher to lower the fuel. If that doesn't work or the dispatcher says no what UA has done is fill up the potable water tanks to 100%, we are talking about 270 gallons and those tanks are located behind the wings which helps the tail weight. If after all of this we still need weight then empty pallet stacks are loaded. Since you have worked the ramp you know what pallet stacks are and depending on how many boards are stacked they can be quite heavy.

Having said that and keeping in line with the cargo theme Kirby today on a call talked about the fact that the recovery will take much longer than anyone anticipated. With that in mind UA will not need as many widebodies in passenger revenue service. So far there is still no public talk of mass retirements (although they maybe discussing it privately) what this call focused on was cargo. Right now because of reduced passengers service and the fact that cargo carriers can not keep up with demand, shipping prices are sky high and Kirby wants a bigger piece of the profits. What Kirby has tasked our engineering team and our weight and balance team with is to come up with solutions for how UA could load cargo above the wing. Now before I go further let me say this UA is not interested in permanent conversions and there are no plans at this time to launch a dedicated cargo fleet. What Kirby wants to know is how UA can carry cargo above the wing with the seats installed and/or with the seats removed. Keep in mind the floor of a passengers jet is not reinforced like a cargo jet. Also before this can go forward how to accurately account for the placement of the weight above the wing using our current weight and balance system (if our weight and balance system can be modified at all). Lastly how would cargo be 100% secured above the wing with the seats installed and without the seats installed.

Again this was just brought up today and UA is simply exploring the idea of temporarily loading cargo above the wing no final decision has been made one way or the other. In the interim what we do know is this UA will not need 190+ widebodies in passenger service once the pandemic part of this crisis is over. We also know that after 2020 UA has no additional widebody deliveries on the books until the A359 order in 2027 which presents challenges. As far as widebody retirements go I get the feeling UA might retire a small portion of the fleet, but place a larger portion of the widebody fleet into long term storage. I think Kirby is hesitant to discuss retirements publicly because if UA retires a significant portion of our widebody fleet and the recovery really starts to take off in 2022 UA could once again find itself at a real disadvantage seeing that we have no future widebody deliveries scheduled until 2027.


Jay,

This article may prove of interest on how the Lufthansa group is handling cargo in the passenger cabin: https://www.aircargonews.net/airlines/airlines-fill-passenger-seats-with-cargo-to-meet-demand/. I imagine it would be limited to pretty light things like masks, gowns, and other PPE which could be stuffed in the bins and secured in the seats with the heavy cargo below the floor.

were United to remove the seat cushions and belts from the seats? they could load an avg. of 170Lbs per seat in the cabin, and secure it with cargo nets just like the picture above as long as they can lock it down to the seat tracks. they would be limited in height of the boxes to not damage the overheads and it would be a pain in the wazoo to load and unload but since the rampers aren't doing anything ELSE? they could do it in a reasonable time and turn the airplane, They might have to have an FAA variance to remove the galley carts as they are part of the OEW. But it could be done!. But they would REALLY need a variance if they removed the seats like a "pseudo" freighter. with some further mods they could remove the Galleys and Lavs but that would make the airplane unsuitable for rapid deployment back to passenger service. and may well be more trouble than it's worth..
 
JoseSalazar
Posts: 254
Joined: Mon Oct 14, 2019 3:18 am

Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sun May 03, 2020 3:42 am

Nicknuzzii wrote:
A pilot posted that the 757s are gone, anyone got any update on this?

In their displacement bid it said the 763 is the only sub fleet forecasted to fly in the foreseeable future. So it sounds like the 75s and 764s are both done.
 
User avatar
ryanflyer
Posts: 54
Joined: Mon Dec 26, 2016 5:02 am

Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sun May 03, 2020 3:51 am

Nicknuzzii wrote:
A pilot posted that the 757s are gone, anyone got any update on this?


I saw that too, and ran that by a reliable source who said that is false. No retirements have been called yet in the 757 fleet, not even the P&W birds.
 
Pinto
Posts: 59
Joined: Thu Jun 21, 2018 11:30 pm

Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sun May 03, 2020 4:30 am

Nicknuzzii wrote:
A pilot posted that the 757s are gone, anyone got any update on this?


I highly doubt we will see UA retire the 757 RR or 767-300ERs for a while. When this is all over they are going to be very important aircraft for UA. While they cost more to operate they can run routes like ORD/IAH/EWR/IAD to Europe and South America. The 772 might be too big and the 788s are few and far between. They will probably be getting the most mileage at the beginning of the recovery.
 
UA444
Posts: 2998
Joined: Sun Mar 09, 2014 7:03 am

Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sun May 03, 2020 5:52 am

United1 wrote:
Runway28L wrote:
This story by The Points Guy indicates the possibility that one of United’s eight hubs may be shuttered post-coronavirus.

None of the Chicago-based carrier’s hubs are “sacred” when it looks at rebuilding after the crisis, United president Scott Kirby said during a first quarter earnings call on Friday. Any decisions, however, are a ways off as passenger numbers remain near zero with no imminent signs of recovery.

“Everything is on the table in terms of what we look like,” he said. “While we don’t have plans to close hubs, when you say everything is on the table we mean everything — there are no sacred cows.”

https://thepointsguy.com/news/united-ai ... ronavirus/

If hub closures were direct results from recessions and 9/11, COVID-19 could certainly make a dehubbing possible. But for the sake of the airline and employees, hopefully it doesn’t come to that. :(


Don’t read too much into that comment from Scott. It was directed at an analyst who asked if AA has said no hubs will be closed is it the same at UA. Kirby basically just said every option is on the table when it comes to rebuilding the network and UA is going to be very flexible. That doesn’t mean UA has any intention of closing a hub simply but unlike AA, who will never loose money again, UA isn’t locked into a course of action.

The points guy, and others, have gotten really click baity with titles lately.

Narrator: AA lost money.
 
UA444
Posts: 2998
Joined: Sun Mar 09, 2014 7:03 am

Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sun May 03, 2020 6:00 am

Pinto wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
A pilot posted that the 757s are gone, anyone got any update on this?


I highly doubt we will see UA retire the 757 RR or 767-300ERs for a while. When this is all over they are going to be very important aircraft for UA. While they cost more to operate they can run routes like ORD/IAH/EWR/IAD to Europe and South America. The 772 might be too big and the 788s are few and far between. They will probably be getting the most mileage at the beginning of the recovery.

Demand is going to be sunk for a long time. None of those long thin routes for the 752 are going to be viable for a long time. The fact AA is retiring all of theirs, many of which are newer than the newest UA ones and they use them extensively to South America, is pretty telling.

I suspect when this is all over the only ones left standing are the 767-300ERs. The 764 flights can be filled by the 763 or 787s. The wildcard is the 753.
 
codc10
Posts: 2897
Joined: Sat Jul 08, 2000 7:18 am

Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sun May 03, 2020 10:23 am

JoseSalazar wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
A pilot posted that the 757s are gone, anyone got any update on this?

In their displacement bid it said the 763 is the only sub fleet forecasted to fly in the foreseeable future. So it sounds like the 75s and 764s are both done.


The “foreseeable future” is the next few months, and I don’t expect to see any 757 flying this summer. Nobody knows when demand will pick up.
 
jayunited
Posts: 2961
Joined: Sat Jan 05, 2013 12:03 am

Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sun May 03, 2020 1:37 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
A pilot posted that the 757s are gone, anyone got any update on this?


If people would have listened to the call they could dispel these rumors quickly when it was stated no decision has been made to retire any fleet types.

All 757s and 767s have been temporarily removed from the schedule. Looking at both the domestic schedule and the international schedule I think it is safe to say no 767s will return until late October. I also think between October and December 2020 UA will pull some RR 752s out of storage to be used on BOS-SFO/LAX and EWR-SFO/LAX routes. The reason I believe some RR 752s will come out of storage later this year is UA unlike AA, DL, and B6 does NOT have an aircraft that can reliably fly the above mentioned routes westbound nonstop during the dead of winter.

A 739ER can't do the flight westbound nonstop with any decent payload. For a 738 to make it westbound all the stars have to align, meaning no storms can be in the flight path, the flight plan can't deviate into Canadian airspace, the winds aloft have to corporate. Anything that increases the fuel burn on the 738 and UA ends up with a plan or in many cases (in the past) an unplanned fuel stop. If UA had some A321s in our fleet then I would agree our 752s would be done. AA does not need their 752s they can shuffle their fleet around to make sure during the winter routes that need an A321 for endurance purposes will have an A321. In fact there was an article out just yesterday talking about AA has decided to continue to reconfigure their A321 fleet so instead of have multiple seating configurations they will have the A32T (JFK-SFO/LAX) and their standard A321 which will have 190 total seats.

If UA retires the entire 757 fleet we have absolutely nothing to take its place at the moment, and there is no other airline in the US that finds themselves in this position. UA made that mistake years ago retired the entire 737 fleet without have a suitable replacement I surely hope history does not repeat itself again. We need to keep some 757s in service until we have enough MAX10s in the fleet to takeover these long transcon routes. Although this next point is not as important the only reason UA placed 737s back on these routes is because there is literally no demand. As demand returns can UA afford to take the risk and be the only carrier flying NYC-SFO/LAX routes without life flat seating on every flight? Keep in mind right now demand is almost zero and most passengers in first class on these routes are either traveling PS (positive space) or are standby employees. Should demand return in October, November and December can UA risk being the only carrier (out of AA, DL, and B6) without lie flat seating on every flight? Believe it or not BOS-SFO is just as competitive as NYC-SFO although I'm not sure if every flight operated by DL, and B6 in the past had lie flat seating.
 
User avatar
calpsafltskeds
Posts: 3226
Joined: Tue Dec 19, 2006 1:29 am

Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sun May 03, 2020 2:29 pm

Stored aircraft continue to be flown into ROW - I count 110 now (467 mainline aircraft parked 14 days or more w/o MAX fleet)
Parked/Stored grid (tabs at bottom for fleet typed): https://sites.google.com/site/unitedfle ... ris-update
Map view by Ross Paulson: https://public.tableau.com/profile/rpau ... leetStatus

319:
N840UA exited SFO 390/2May with 12F mod complete. 67 of 74 complete

77W:
N2341U exited HKG maint 2864/2May
N2344U entered HKG maint 2865/1May
 
User avatar
STT757
Posts: 14146
Joined: Tue Mar 28, 2000 1:14 am

Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sun May 03, 2020 3:05 pm

United1 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
United1 wrote:

Don’t read too much into that comment from Scott. It was directed at an analyst who asked if AA has said no hubs will be closed is it the same at UA. Kirby basically just said every option is on the table when it comes to rebuilding the network and UA is going to be very flexible. That doesn’t mean UA has any intention of closing a hub simply but unlike AA, who will never loose money again, UA isn’t locked into a course of action.

The points guy, and others, have gotten really click baity with titles lately.


Or they are just praising or pointing out that UA is better prepared for the worst case scenario. I see absolutely nothing wrong with that article.

With LAX as competitive as it is and TPAC traffic down for a while, I would be very surprised if LAX doesn't get downscaled a focus city. They already don't serve PDX, SJC,or DFW. I wouldn't be surprised if stuff like SAN, SEA, MCO, SBA, SBP SMF and BWI get canceled. That would allow UA to move all its feed into SFO to further dominate there.


I rarely see much praise in TPG articles but to each their own.

I am sure all of the hubs will be scaled back in the near term so you may be right with what UA will do with it's traffic flow at LAX. I would be surprised to see SAN, SEA and MCO cut however and I don't think it will stay that way. UA had some fairly solid plans for growth at LAX pre crisis and while this certainly has put a damper on that I don't think it's ended those plans. While UA could consolidate at SFO that would only be a temporary fix as once traffic rebounds (and it will even if it's a few years down the road) they will quickly run out of gate space at SFO again. If UA wants to keep growing in CA that brings LAX back into play. It's likely UA will hold onto all of their real estate at LAX planning for that day.


I don't see any hubs right now being closed.

You can forget about any dreams of a new concourse C/D at IAD. If anything, if other carriers pull back enough that might UA's opportunity to try and fit a good portion of a slimmed down hub into the A/B concourse. They might possibly be able to consolidate the whole operation there and close C/D. That would require both reduction of service from existing carriers on that concourse as well as a bit of a reduction of their own.

The new concourse at LAX is probably not going to happen, and they might be able to delay the ORD project.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Pro
Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
 
User avatar
calpsafltskeds
Posts: 3226
Joined: Tue Dec 19, 2006 1:29 am

Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sun May 03, 2020 3:29 pm

Jay, I understand UA has to save cash, but would find it very dire situation if UA feels it has to retire all 757s at this point.
1.) Fuel prices should continue to be low for quite a while
2.) Ownership cost should be lower than new aircraft

Is it coincidence that the 320 family of aircraft were not flown to Hawaii until the last few years while 737NGs had flown the market for years - this could have been because airlines that flew to Hawaii didn't utilize 320 series aircraft, but maybe that the original versions had much lower range.
UA has flown lots of trancon markets with 738s and 739ERs for years as well as Mainland-HI with ETOPS fuel requirements - maybe decreased demand will mean lighter payloads this coming Winter. I was bumped off a 739ER LAX-HNL a few years ago, that was weight restricted to about 2/3 capacity - UA has dealt with this issue for years and understand if the 757s were retired it would add to this already existing range issue, but don't believe its a deal breaker.

UA has other options for transcons
1.) Assuming UA has more than enough widebodies for depress international demand, 16 764s and 7 non-Polaris 763s can cover a lot of territory with lower frequency along with 772A and 78X flying these markets - sure the market's beaten up, but UA has plenty of options to retain low ownership units, especially with low fuel prices. With reduced demand something like widebody only service might work: EWR-LAX 6, EWR-SFO-7, IAD-LAX 5, IAD-SFO 6, BOS-LAX-2, BOS-SFO-3 widebodies would required about 30 units (23 763/4, 5 772A and 2 78X).
2.) I believe the 753 fleet should be retained as well as some 752RR units not due for major overhaul - 753s could be retrofitted with Diamond seats pretty easily to provide 16F. With lots of Y seats in the 753, a mini Diamond cabin could provide a 752PW fleet F cabin count of approximately 28F/170Y seats - of course the mod would cost, but the seats would be free and no lav galley changes shouldn't be required.
3.) The MAX fleet should return at some point and 739s F could be converted to Diamond seating unless the mid cabin lav screws up seat pitch issues on the left side of the aircraft. Do the new MAXs above the 14 already delivered units have seating installed?
 
sdh9
Posts: 66
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 3:13 pm

Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sun May 03, 2020 3:48 pm

jayunited wrote:
A 739ER can't do the flight westbound nonstop with any decent payload. For a 738 to make it westbound all the stars have to align, meaning no storms can be in the flight path, the flight plan can't deviate into Canadian airspace, the winds aloft have to corporate. Anything that increases the fuel burn on the 738 and UA ends up with a plan or in many cases (in the past) an unplanned fuel stop.


You've posted this a few times, and I disagree with what you're saying. I don't have the NOC view like you have, but from a pilot's view, the 737NG is a bit more capable than this forum gives it credit for. And UA has done a great job of planning the aircraft around the limits it has to maximize its potential.

1. 739ERs flew EWR-SFO, EWR-LAX, etc prior to the move of PS service from JFK to EWR. They did fine. There might have been a few diversions or planned fuel stops, but it was a lot less than you make it sound. I personally have never had one. I don't even remember blocked seats. The only time I noticed a weight restriction was on a straight 900 going eastbound, and for that airplane to get into that routing meant that we had to be short on jets that day.

1a. In fairness, I have no knowledge of the amount of cargo the airplane took or did not take. I'd imagine the 752 did better here.

1b. I never flew BOS-SFO enough to form an opinion. I would imagine this is fairly challenging for the aircraft in certain situations.

2. Flight planning software accounts for winds and plans the least cost route, even if the flight must cover more ground to take advantage of a lesser headwind. It is somewhat common to see Newark transcon departures go through Canadian airspace if the winds justify that routing. The flight planning software is even smart enough to calculate the cost of Canadian overflight and route accordingly.

3. To this day the 9ER flies similar transcon routes ex-PS: EWR-SAN, EWR-SMF, IAD-SFO, IAD-LAX. Also, ORD-ANC, while only operated in the summer, was UA's longest NG route, I believe. It was typically an -800. Again, I fly these routes routinely and have never seen a planned fuel stop.

3a. ORD-ANC had some special rules about a go-no go decision to be made enroute, similar to a redispatch scenario, however the flight is normally dispatched. This was mostly because of the lack of viable alternate airports closer to ANC.

Where the NG fleet struggles is on the Hawaii routes. Even though SFO-HNL is less distance than EWR-SFO, the HNL flight must carry about 5000 lb extra gas for ETOPS fuel. The airplane literally did not have a big enough fuel tank to carry all the gas during the windy season-- typically it was fuel volume limited and not weight limited. So, what the NOC would need to do is reduce the weight of the airplane (block seats, hold cargo), to reduce the fuel burn. The MAX, whenever it comes back, fixes that problem because while it has the same fuel capacity, the engines burn about 10-15% less fuel (which is conveniently right around the magic 5000 lb number for ETOPS add fuel).

I have no doubt in my mind that the 752 can easily be replaced on transcons because we did it before. In a high-RASM environment, like what we just came out with, having the lie flat seats was worth the fuel cost penalty on the 752, but with revenue taking years to recover, having a lower cost fleet flying the routes is probably the smarter move. Obviously, this is just my opinion, but it seems this is the direction we are heading.
 
User avatar
jfklganyc
Posts: 6001
Joined: Mon Jan 05, 2004 2:31 pm

Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sun May 03, 2020 4:08 pm

As a pilot, I dont think many of you posting understand the severity and time involved in this.

They are displacing close to 5000 guys. The assumption being that come Oct 1, close to that number off the bottom are on the street.

33 percent or so of their list.

You guys talk about aircraft retirements of coming back. It is irrelevant. The pilot numbers wont be there to fly the 757. They are done...not for a week or a month or two months...but for a long period of time.

Why?

Because when you displace, the senior pilot gets to rebid...and he displaces. Then the pilot that was displaced gets to bid...and he displaces someone junior to him. It is a snowball of horse crap rolling down hill that eventually goes splat on the 5000 furloughed guys.

The retraining process for something this size takes many many months. And it will cost millions of dollars.

You dont do this if the 757 is coming back in Dec.

For all intents and purposes, UA is shrinking by 30 percent. The 757 and 764 are goners for a long time if not forever. LA longhaul (except a flight or two staffed by other bases) is gone for a while.

That is how this works. Time to face reality on these fantasy boards...your airline employee buddies already are
 
Whiteguy
Posts: 1553
Joined: Sat Nov 29, 2003 6:11 am

Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sun May 03, 2020 4:09 pm

JoseSalazar wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
A pilot posted that the 757s are gone, anyone got any update on this?

In their displacement bid it said the 763 is the only sub fleet forecasted to fly in the foreseeable future. So it sounds like the 75s and 764s are both done.


Just curious, are the 757 or 764 separate bids at UA? Or does the 763 bid include the the 757/764?
 
User avatar
KVH68
Posts: 265
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2016 4:09 am

Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sun May 03, 2020 4:21 pm

Does anyone know the progress of the new United hangar at LAX? They broke ground on March 2019, and it was supposed to be finished this year. When I look at the satellite image on Google Maps, I don't see any new construction. Here is a link with more details about the project.

https://www.lawa.org/en/lawa-our-lax/en ... aintenance
 
tphuang
Posts: 5328
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sun May 03, 2020 4:23 pm

jayunited wrote:
All 757s and 767s have been temporarily removed from the schedule. Looking at both the domestic schedule and the international schedule I think it is safe to say no 767s will return until late October. I also think between October and December 2020 UA will pull some RR 752s out of storage to be used on BOS-SFO/LAX and EWR-SFO/LAX routes. The reason I believe some RR 752s will come out of storage later this year is UA unlike AA, DL, and B6 does NOT have an aircraft that can reliably fly the above mentioned routes westbound nonstop during the dead of winter.

A 739ER can't do the flight westbound nonstop with any decent payload. For a 738 to make it westbound all the stars have to align, meaning no storms can be in the flight path, the flight plan can't deviate into Canadian airspace, the winds aloft have to corporate. Anything that increases the fuel burn on the 738 and UA ends up with a plan or in many cases (in the past) an unplanned fuel stop. If UA had some A321s in our fleet then I would agree our 752s would be done. AA does not need their 752s they can shuffle their fleet around to make sure during the winter routes that need an A321 for endurance purposes will have an A321. In fact there was an article out just yesterday talking about AA has decided to continue to reconfigure their A321 fleet so instead of have multiple seating configurations they will have the A32T (JFK-SFO/LAX) and their standard A321 which will have 190 total seats.

If UA retires the entire 757 fleet we have absolutely nothing to take its place at the moment, and there is no other airline in the US that finds themselves in this position. UA made that mistake years ago retired the entire 737 fleet without have a suitable replacement I surely hope history does not repeat itself again. We need to keep some 757s in service until we have enough MAX10s in the fleet to takeover these long transcon routes. Although this next point is not as important the only reason UA placed 737s back on these routes is because there is literally no demand. As demand returns can UA afford to take the risk and be the only carrier flying NYC-SFO/LAX routes without life flat seating on every flight? Keep in mind right now demand is almost zero and most passengers in first class on these routes are either traveling PS (positive space) or are standby employees. Should demand return in October, November and December can UA risk being the only carrier (out of AA, DL, and B6) without lie flat seating on every flight? Believe it or not BOS-SFO is just as competitive as NYC-SFO although I'm not sure if every flight operated by DL, and B6 in the past had lie flat seating.

For BOS-SFO, DL hasn't had lie flat for a while now and B6 only scheduled lie flat on 5 of 7 for this summer (prior to this). Even on JFK-SFO, B6 had scheduled in non-mint A321s prior to this also. I'm also not sure how many A321Ts will appear for AA on JFK-LAX/SFO given how premium they are configured in what should be a very weak market. AA at this point is not even flying premium transcons and who knows when they are coming back? So, I don't think things are as dire as you do.

Serious question, it looks like UA just displaced most of the 757/767 pilots and there is a good chance a lot of these guys will be furloughed. Even if they were to bring 757s back, where are the pilots coming from? At least to me, it doesn't make sense to do displacement only to bring them back and retrain them 6 months later. So they'd need to either move the remaining 756 pilots away from what they are flying in order to compete in the PS markets. That seems less plausible than just flying weight restricted NGs during winter time.

calpsafltskeds wrote:
1.) Assuming UA has more than enough widebodies for depress international demand, 16 764s and 7 non-Polaris 763s can cover a lot of territory with lower frequency along with 772A and 78X flying these markets - sure the market's beaten up, but UA has plenty of options to retain low ownership units, especially with low fuel prices. With reduced demand something like widebody only service might work: EWR-LAX 6, EWR-SFO-7, IAD-LAX 5, IAD-SFO 6, BOS-LAX-2, BOS-SFO-3 widebodies would required about 30 units (23 763/4, 5 772A and 2 78X).

If you noticed, UA also did huge displacements on 777s and 787s. They are anticipating low demand for widebodies for quite a while.

I'm sure you will see some 78X and 772A on EWR-LAX/SFO as well as HNL routes. Remember, you need widebodies to do stuff like DEN-HNL/OGG. And there are still TATL flights and south america flights that would a lot more sense on 767s than 777s. I'd imagine all the 767s will be used for EWR/ORD TATL and IAH south america flights at this point.

Also given the reduced demand, you simply can't fill that many widebodies on IAD/BOS-LAX/SFO. Remember, UA moved all the BOS-SFO flights back to 757s in the past year and BOS-LAX only got 757 lie flats a few quarters ago. This seems to be quite unrealistic.
 
User avatar
calpsafltskeds
Posts: 3226
Joined: Tue Dec 19, 2006 1:29 am

Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sun May 03, 2020 4:24 pm

Bingo, I've been posting for years on this thread and wondered way back when why CO/UA didn't add an 1 aux tank on the 739ER. The roughly 3500 lbs. of extra fuel would have gotten to the destination with more payload and allowed full MGTOW on WC-Hawaii flights - obviously it would have made a difference on transcons. (The 737 Wiki page shows 739ER max range with 2 aux tanks installed).
The logic is here: the difference in MGTOW between 8/9 versions is about 13k pounds. This allows extra 16 passengers with bags at about 3K, 7K in weight difference would leave about 3k for more fuel, which is about equal to 1 aux tank. That aux tank would allow an equal range with the 738.
Of course a fully fueled 738 or a 739 with one aux tank would probably have some weight restriction, but these 2 fuel configurations appear to be more similar in load/fuel/weight/range than both types not having any aux tanks.

While aux tanks on the MAX would probably provide similar benefits with fuel limited flights on MAX9 and possibly the MAX10, the 7,000 lbs heavier engines provide about 600 miles of extra range including the higher operating weight.
 
sdh9
Posts: 66
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 3:13 pm

Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sun May 03, 2020 4:27 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
As a pilot, I dont think many of you posting understand the severity and time involved in this.

They are displacing close to 5000 guys. The assumption being that come Oct 1, close to that number off the bottom are on the street.

33 percent or so of their list.

You guys talk about aircraft retirements of coming back. It is irrelevant. The pilot numbers wont be there to fly the 757. They are done...not for a week or a month or two months...but for a long period of time.

Why?

Because when you displace, the senior pilot gets to rebid...and he displaces. Then the pilot that was displaced gets to bid...and he displaces someone junior to him. It is a snowball of horse crap rolling down hill that eventually goes splat on the 5000 furloughed guys.

The retraining process for something this size takes many many months. And it will cost millions of dollars.

You dont do this if the 757 is coming back in Dec.

For all intents and purposes, UA is shrinking by 30 percent. The 757 and 764 are goners for a long time if not forever. LA longhaul (except a flight or two staffed by other bases) is gone for a while.

That is how this works. Time to face reality on these fantasy boards...your airline employee buddies already are


Bingo. Decisions are being made to align the pilot group with the new direction of the airline. If you want a preview of how the airline will look next summer, look at what they are doing to the pilots now.

United will be vastly different company next summer. They have set the stage to retire the 752, 753, 764, and maybe some early build 772s.

Once they make the pilot staffing changes and the associated training, there's almost no chance of turning back.
 
FlyinRabbit88
Posts: 101
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2016 4:16 am

Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sun May 03, 2020 4:53 pm

jayunited wrote:

I also think between October and December 2020 UA will pull some RR 752s out of storage to be used on BOS-SFO/LAX and EWR-SFO/LAX routes. The reason I believe some RR 752s will come out of storage later this year is UA unlike AA, DL, and B6 does NOT have an aircraft that can reliably fly the above mentioned routes westbound nonstop during the dead of winter.


Not sure where you are getting that B6 can’t do BOS/JFK-SFO/LAX reliably westbound in the winter. The 32S Mint configuration has the range to do it. Can’t think of a time I had to do a tech stop in a 32S or a 321core but the 320 have done it a few times going into BUR. With the 321Neo, it becomes even less of an issue.
 
airplanedriver6
Posts: 44
Joined: Sat Oct 19, 2019 9:27 pm

Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sun May 03, 2020 5:03 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
A
The retraining process for something this size takes many many months.

It's worse than that.

It would take YEARS to retrain 5000 pilots with the United pilot training center running at full capacity. And that's not even considering that there are many instructor pilots in the bottom third of the list that would also have to be replaced. FWIW, a pilot can be trained on a new aircraft in about two months between the time in the training center and flying the line with a check airman (IOE).

So, what United is really doing is trying to get as many pilots possible trained on the smallest, and thus, lowest pay aircraft before October when United can furlough pilots. By displacing 4500 pilots (on paper) they are forcing pilots into the smallest aircraft instead of the game of bouncing from one to another on the way backward. At some point, many of those displacements will be cancelled and the more senior pilots will be exactly where they were. This is all driven by the requirements of the United Pilot Agreement (UPA) a.k.a "the pilot contract." When the dust settles, there will be too many pilots on the 737 and 320 fleets and the most junior pilots will be furloughed.

To re-iterate, it is physically IMPOSSIBLE for United to re-train 4500 pilots by October 1.

For comparison, prior to Covid United could hire about 1000 pilots a year and that was limited by training center capacity. Back after 9/11 United could only furlough about 1000 pilots a year because of training center capacity so it took United two years to furlough 2172 pilots.

United will look very different after all is said and done, but it cannot turn its fleets or pilots on a dime.
Last edited by airplanedriver6 on Sun May 03, 2020 5:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
User avatar
jfklganyc
Posts: 6001
Joined: Mon Jan 05, 2004 2:31 pm

Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sun May 03, 2020 5:07 pm

No one is saying 4500 will be retrained by 10/1

But the airline will likely furlough something like that on 10/1.

The backlog will be long and costly...which is why those planes arent coming back
 
x1234
Posts: 916
Joined: Mon Nov 28, 2016 3:50 pm

Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sun May 03, 2020 5:10 pm

It seems to me UA is best positioned internationally with the new 787's but the old fleet still has problems on TCONs. Maybe UA should order the A321XLR?
 
airplanedriver6
Posts: 44
Joined: Sat Oct 19, 2019 9:27 pm

Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sun May 03, 2020 5:11 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
But the airline will likely furlough something like that on 10/1.

No it won't. That's the point.
 
fun2fly
Posts: 1615
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2006 8:44 am

Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sun May 03, 2020 5:30 pm

In the recent days, the 767 fleet discussion has shifted from 763's being retired to now the 764's being retired. What's the reason or what insights do you have on the 764's? I thought they were a darling subfleet perfect for TATL ops? Or if the 763's and 752's go, might as well get rid of the whole family? Many guesses were the newly refitted Polaris 763's would be sending their seats to the 764's.

If that holds true, figure 150-175 x 787/777's only for UA widebody ops with the 321XLR for short hop TATL. That's a lot simpler to manage parts, pilots, etc. I guess it's a fast forward of 5 years of fleet planning in a 6 month period.

How's the freighter market for used 767's & 757's? Amazon or Fedex still interested?

It's too bad UA spent a ton of $$ on the 763 refurbishments. They were a nice ride.
 
User avatar
calpsafltskeds
Posts: 3226
Joined: Tue Dec 19, 2006 1:29 am

Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sun May 03, 2020 6:03 pm

The only problem with the 764 is door 2. I'll bet the 764s would have been at the top of the Polaris retrofit list if there wasn't a fixed doorway that messes with Polaris seats.
I guess UA would be saving ?? dollars to not retrofit 764s with Polaris seats from the 1992 763s that could be retired? How long will the 28 year old 763 Polaris aircraft fly vs. a 18-20 year old 764 Polaris aircraft?
UA doesn't need the minor range increase of the up-to-10 years older 763. I can't imagine UA would dump the 764 due as "too big" due to hopefully a year or so of depressed demand.
 
United1
Posts: 4185
Joined: Wed Oct 08, 2003 9:21 am

Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sun May 03, 2020 6:06 pm

x1234 wrote:
It seems to me UA is best positioned internationally with the new 787's but the old fleet still has problems on TCONs. Maybe UA should order the A321XLR?


UA has 50 of those aicraft on order scheduled to start delivery in 2025.
I know the voices in my head aren't real but sometimes their ideas are just awesome!!!
 
User avatar
Continental767
Posts: 171
Joined: Fri Apr 01, 2016 3:22 pm

Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sun May 03, 2020 6:28 pm

Apparently UA already has the new seats on order for the 764s, and they are incredibly profitable. I highly doubt that they are goners.
Indianapolis.
 
User avatar
adamblang
Posts: 1259
Joined: Sat Jul 19, 2008 5:47 pm

Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sun May 03, 2020 6:42 pm

x1234 wrote:
It seems to me UA is best positioned internationally with the new 787's but the old fleet still has problems on TCONs. Maybe UA should order the A321XLR?

They did in December: https://www.airbus.com/newsroom/press-r ... nsion.html
 
sdh9
Posts: 66
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 3:13 pm

Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sun May 03, 2020 7:46 pm

airplanedriver6 wrote:

It would take YEARS to retrain 5000 pilots with the United pilot training center running at full capacity. And that's not even considering that there are many instructor pilots in the bottom third of the list that would also have to be replaced. FWIW, a pilot can be trained on a new aircraft in about two months between the time in the training center and flying the line with a check airman (IOE).


I agree with most of what you said but you are assuming a full training cycle. The company has designed this bid to maximize short training cycles, like going left seat of the 320 to right seat. I am not an instructor but it’s my understanding that there is also a Boeing to Boeing cycle to handle the bumps from 777 to 756 and 756 to 737. It’s possible that a very high percentage of the training events will not be full cycles.

That being said, I would be shocked if this amount of training could be wrapped up in anything shorter than a year. Also, for most pilots their pay drops on a displacement when they pop the brake on their first IOE trip, so it’s in the company’s best interest to get this going if they want to save money.

There are ways to cancel displacements, of course, but the company must be reasonably sure of future events to spend hundreds of millions of dollars to eventually save a few billions. If they are wrong, this is a very expensive process to undo.
 
UA444
Posts: 2998
Joined: Sun Mar 09, 2014 7:03 am

Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sun May 03, 2020 8:38 pm

The 764 is beyond overrated. There is a reason only two airlines ordered it and why none of them are flying currently while a few 763s soldier on. The 788 also seats only 3 more passengers and can fly farther and burn less fuel. You can easily dump the sub fleet that only has 16 planes and has the oddball GE engines and not have to spend $$$ retrofit them either to Polaris. The 763 is far harder to replace and why DL and UA will likely fly most of them for the foreseeable future.
 
User avatar
LAXintl
Posts: 24710
Joined: Wed May 24, 2000 12:12 pm

Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sun May 03, 2020 9:06 pm

As I posted earlier, in a recent TechOps note it was mentioned the company as of late April had placed 207 aircraft into "prolonged storage", and 104 additional ones were waiting to be placed into such storage. This is beyond the hundreds of frames parked at many stations which are in "active storage" and can return to service faster when demand picks ups.
The note mentioned criteria for prolonged storage included - network planning determining low likelihood needing aircraft this year, upcoming heavy checks, engine and APU time limitations, desire to avoid CapEx projects like cabin and other tech upgrades.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
User avatar
calpsafltskeds
Posts: 3226
Joined: Tue Dec 19, 2006 1:29 am

Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sun May 03, 2020 10:15 pm

UA444. You've bashed the 764 on on this thread before and promoted the more orphan, smaller, high-cycled 752PW fleet. I'm wondering if you have stock in Pratt and Whittney. The 764 was at the end of the 767 program and was built for CO/DL to replace DC10's and L-1011s. If earlier in the program undoubted it would have sold more and then there was that minor blip called 9/11 the affected the industry for years. Let me guarantee you CO wished they would have bought more 764's or some 763s instead of the too short 762.

763s are a great airplane, but UA's split fleet of 21 1992/3 builds are getting way up there in time in comparison to the 14 1998/2000 builds plus 3 newer ExHA birds. The 2000/02 764s are newer and probably have lower cycles per year due to mostly TransAtlantic operations. In hindsight everything is clearer, but I'm sure UA wished they would have Polarised the 764s instead of the 1991/3 763s.
 
UA444
Posts: 2998
Joined: Sun Mar 09, 2014 7:03 am

Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sun May 03, 2020 10:41 pm

calpsafltskeds wrote:
UA444. You've bashed the 764 on on this thread before and promoted the more orphan, smaller, high-cycled 752PW fleet. I'm wondering if you have stock in Pratt and Whittney. The 764 was at the end of the 767 program and was built for CO/DL to replace DC10's and L-1011s. If earlier in the program undoubted it would have sold more and then there was that minor blip called 9/11 the affected the industry for years. Let me guarantee you CO wished they would have bought more 764's or some 763s instead of the too short 762.

763s are a great airplane, but UA's split fleet of 21 1992/3 builds are getting way up there in time in comparison to the 14 1998/2000 builds plus 3 newer ExHA birds. The 2000/02 764s are newer and probably have lower cycles per year due to mostly TransAtlantic operations. In hindsight everything is clearer, but I'm sure UA wished they would have Polarised the 764s instead of the 1991/3 763s.

No, I don’t have PW stock and I think it’s pretty apparent at this point that the PW 757s and even other 757s won’t come back, despite optimism I had in March that this would blow over. The hoopla over this virus has absolutely tanked our economy and it’s hard to see any sort of recovery in the next year. There will be planes that have lots of life yet that don’t come back.

As for the 764, well timing is everything. If it had entered service in 1993 it probably would’ve sold “better“, but it didn’t and only 38 were built and airlines like JAL, LAN, ANA, and a few others ordered 767s and even 772s into the late 2000s and early 2010s and didn’t see the need for the 764, a plane compromised in part due to the fact a requirement was that it had to be able to replace DC-10s and L1011’s at LGA.

Had the 764 already been retrofitted I can see them sticking around, but none have Polaris, and then you have the cost of certification for the new seats and the CapEx required to do so when airlines bleeding money, and it isn’t hard to see why it’s a major cut candidate. Plus, as hard as it is to believe, some are already 20 years old and the 787-8 is close enough in numbers and capacity to the 764 that a lot of its missions can be back filled by it, where as the 767-300ER is a more unique size and harder to replace (which is why they explored ordering new ones a few years ago). Do I think all 21 of the 64xx 763s survive this? No, and it’s likely they’ll have to write down those expenses in future quarters, but it’s easier to see more of the 763s sticking around in the near future that can’t be easily replaced and have already sunk money into, vs the 764 that can have all of its roles replaced by displaced 763s or 788s.
 
CriticalPoint
Posts: 1062
Joined: Thu Jan 19, 2017 5:01 pm

Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sun May 03, 2020 10:48 pm

sdh9 wrote:
airplanedriver6 wrote:

It would take YEARS to retrain 5000 pilots with the United pilot training center running at full capacity. And that's not even considering that there are many instructor pilots in the bottom third of the list that would also have to be replaced. FWIW, a pilot can be trained on a new aircraft in about two months between the time in the training center and flying the line with a check airman (IOE).


I agree with most of what you said but you are assuming a full training cycle. The company has designed this bid to maximize short training cycles, like going left seat of the 320 to right seat. I am not an instructor but it’s my understanding that there is also a Boeing to Boeing cycle to handle the bumps from 777 to 756 and 756 to 737. It’s possible that a very high percentage of the training events will not be full cycles.

That being said, I would be shocked if this amount of training could be wrapped up in anything shorter than a year. Also, for most pilots their pay drops on a displacement when they pop the brake on their first IOE trip, so it’s in the company’s best interest to get this going if they want to save money.

There are ways to cancel displacements, of course, but the company must be reasonably sure of future events to spend hundreds of millions of dollars to eventually save a few billions. If they are wrong, this is a very expensive process to undo.


There is no Boeing to Boeing short course but there is a 787-777 short course.

4000 pilots will not be furloughed. The reason that number is so big on this bid is because they wanted to eliminate the bump game......and they succeeded l.

Look at the min max numbers. They have staffed SFO 787 for single augment only, they left 7 FOs in the IAH 756, there are more CAs than FOs in nearly all bases.

What you will see is massive amounts of 787 FOs in LAX go to SFO and the company will accept them. They will accept the pilots that bid into the 756.....etc. United will furlough on OCT 1st but how many isn’t yet clear but it will certainly not be 4000-5000.
 
UA857
Posts: 505
Joined: Thu Aug 10, 2017 3:41 am

Why didn't United not paint any Domestic 763s and 772 in the Rising Blue colors

Mon May 04, 2020 5:54 am

Is there a reason why United's Domestic Ghetto Bird 763s and Hawaii configured 772 skipped the Rising Blue livery and were directly repainted from the Battleship Grey livery to the Continental Globe livery and only the International 763s and 772s got the Rising Blue colors?
 
KFTG
Posts: 864
Joined: Sun Apr 28, 2019 12:08 am

Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Mon May 04, 2020 6:41 am

No, there was no reason.
 
GoSharks
Posts: 150
Joined: Mon Nov 02, 2015 3:23 am

Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Mon May 04, 2020 8:44 am

UA444 wrote:
calpsafltskeds wrote:
UA444. You've bashed the 764 on on this thread before and promoted the more orphan, smaller, high-cycled 752PW fleet. I'm wondering if you have stock in Pratt and Whittney. The 764 was at the end of the 767 program and was built for CO/DL to replace DC10's and L-1011s. If earlier in the program undoubted it would have sold more and then there was that minor blip called 9/11 the affected the industry for years. Let me guarantee you CO wished they would have bought more 764's or some 763s instead of the too short 762.

763s are a great airplane, but UA's split fleet of 21 1992/3 builds are getting way up there in time in comparison to the 14 1998/2000 builds plus 3 newer ExHA birds. The 2000/02 764s are newer and probably have lower cycles per year due to mostly TransAtlantic operations. In hindsight everything is clearer, but I'm sure UA wished they would have Polarised the 764s instead of the 1991/3 763s.

No, I don’t have PW stock and I think it’s pretty apparent at this point that the PW 757s and even other 757s won’t come back, despite optimism I had in March that this would blow over. The hoopla over this virus has absolutely tanked our economy and it’s hard to see any sort of recovery in the next year. There will be planes that have lots of life yet that don’t come back.

As for the 764, well timing is everything. If it had entered service in 1993 it probably would’ve sold “better“, but it didn’t and only 38 were built and airlines like JAL, LAN, ANA, and a few others ordered 767s and even 772s into the late 2000s and early 2010s and didn’t see the need for the 764, a plane compromised in part due to the fact a requirement was that it had to be able to replace DC-10s and L1011’s at LGA.

Had the 764 already been retrofitted I can see them sticking around, but none have Polaris, and then you have the cost of certification for the new seats and the CapEx required to do so when airlines bleeding money, and it isn’t hard to see why it’s a major cut candidate. Plus, as hard as it is to believe, some are already 20 years old and the 787-8 is close enough in numbers and capacity to the 764 that a lot of its missions can be back filled by it, where as the 767-300ER is a more unique size and harder to replace (which is why they explored ordering new ones a few years ago). Do I think all 21 of the 64xx 763s survive this? No, and it’s likely they’ll have to write down those expenses in future quarters, but it’s easier to see more of the 763s sticking around in the near future that can’t be easily replaced and have already sunk money into, vs the 764 that can have all of its roles replaced by displaced 763s or 788s.

39J to 28J is a pretty big difference. Now, obviously the market is changed, but the planes were configured for two totally different markets.
 
Okcflyer
Posts: 668
Joined: Sat May 23, 2015 11:10 pm

Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Mon May 04, 2020 12:18 pm

The problem with the 764 is that it has too many unique attributes. Special gear based on 777 design. Special flight deck with 777 components and not used on another high volume 767. In UA’s case, the only CF6 on property. All of these increase execution risk and therefore cost. While the frame itself is efficient, it doesn’t fit within synergies of a large organization.

Stick a fork in most 777HDs (mid 90’s). Those only make sense on Hawaii service from IAH/ORD/DEN/SFO (maxed with cargo).

The 753 is a similar story. Good economics when flying. Stranger. Not worth the time and effort without a large 752 fleet as well.

I think most interesting will be what happens on the narrow bodies. Retirements will happen, especially as MAX’s are delivered. *What* retires first will be most interesting. Early IAE powered Airbuses? Early CFM 737’s? Will the A319/737 size stick around in numbers (Meaning A320’s / 738’s retired) or will the smallest get the whack.

In the booming economy, the small incremental cost of the 738/A320 was considered trivial and easily covered by revenue management practices.

With a contracted market, those 5-6% cost savings can add up, and I’ve always wonder if the engine maintenance factor was properly accounted for. Due to their lower trust, they don’t deteriorate as quickly (fuel savings) and can last longer before overhaul. I suppose in large fleets those smaller birds for the longest time engines off the heavier-worked frames.
 
Nicknuzzii
Posts: 1235
Joined: Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:57 pm

United exercises options for 8 787-10s

Mon May 04, 2020 1:29 pm

In Q1 2020 United ordered 8 787-10s. The airline says that the 787 will serve as their workhorse of their long haul fleet in the future. It is presumptuous to say these aircraft will be based in ORD, EWR, and SFO. With confirmed options included it brings UA’s total to 15 78X’s that are yet to be delivered.

Mods please change the title to 8!

https://twitter.com/e_russell/status/12 ... 83392?s=21
 
User avatar
GEUltraFan9XGTF
Posts: 385
Joined: Thu Nov 22, 2018 3:31 pm

Re: United orders 7 787-10s

Mon May 04, 2020 1:41 pm

Wow. Surprising but great news for Boeing and United. I anticipate more of these for the 789/78J.
© 2020. All statements are my own. The use of my statements, including by journalists, YouTube vloggers like "DJ's Aviation", etc. without my written consent is strictly prohibited.
 
User avatar
Antaras
Posts: 907
Joined: Thu Aug 15, 2019 6:18 am

Re: United orders 7 787-10s

Mon May 04, 2020 1:45 pm

Seems like UA still have enough money.
By the way, welcome UA to the "Club of carriers who want some more planes amid Covid-19" with Vietnam Airlines, Wizz Air and airBaltic :duck:
Edit signature
This is a block of text that can be added to posts you make. There is a 255 character limit.
 
User avatar
Polot
Posts: 10715
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:01 pm

Re: United orders 7 787-10s

Mon May 04, 2020 1:55 pm

I think your title is correct- UA apparently ordered 7 787-10s. They still have one remaining on order (one was delivered in April and not yet reflected on Boeing’s site) which would give them 8 to be delivered, apparently all in 2021? I’m not sure where you are getting 15 78X to be delivered to UA including this order- You might be including some 789s in there. There is the possibility that UA ordered more than 7 though, the source is just getting 8 from current balance + 7.

Anyways this is something (additional 787-10) that has been rumored for awhile in the company, a bit surprised that they would exercise now unless options/rights were about to expire.

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos