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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sat May 09, 2020 5:39 pm

Just a reminder to keep your posts on topic, this includes no personal attacks. Those engaging in personal attacks are at risk of being on the end of a warning and/or ban
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GmoneyCO
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sat May 09, 2020 5:48 pm

73G:
N7708E - Future N17759 delivered to UA on 8-May per FAA records. Currently parked at PAE.
 
FlyingElvii
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sat May 09, 2020 5:53 pm

MohawkWeekend wrote:
Will UA/AA's 757 find life as freighters? I actually thought UA had already had agreements to do that already with UPS.

How many will end up at UPS or in Iceland?
 
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sat May 09, 2020 6:05 pm

752 as UA2720 going to Roswell from Orlando, right now.
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/UAL ... /KMCO/KROW
 
FlyingElvii
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sat May 09, 2020 6:07 pm

Any word on the UA Regional fleets? I have been noticing multiple deadheads all week, sometimes as many as three at once, moving between hubs and bases. Mostly OO and YX.
 
jetmatt777
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sat May 09, 2020 6:24 pm

FlyingElvii wrote:
Any word on the UA Regional fleets? I have been noticing multiple deadheads all week, sometimes as many as three at once, moving between hubs and bases. Mostly OO and YX.


Not just UA, OO (DL) just repo'd 6 CR9s from storage in OKC to SLC yesterday afternoon and last night. Not sure if those are just being moved back to the hub to be ready to be activated in the future, or if they are bringing them into service right away.
 
EssentialPowr
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sat May 09, 2020 6:25 pm

With the failure of the bond issue, UAL is under even more pressure to reduce costs. The 30% size reduction is the start of the new baseline size. Every work group will get the 30% as of 1 Oct, with certain leadership indicating pilots should draw their own conclusions give the info UAL has put out. It’s time for new UAL management, as the current committee (which should be a singular person in crisis) is clueless.

TSA numbers show 215000 screened yesterday compared to 171000 a week ago; we will all take that improvement!
 
tphuang
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sat May 09, 2020 7:21 pm

jayunited wrote:
codc10 wrote:
I would also agree that United falls somewhere between AA and DL/WN in terms of prospects coming out of this crisis. UA is in better financial health than AA, but if the recovery is primarily domestic, its starting position is behind the others.


You do make a great point about domestic vs international.

I do believe in the beginning the recovery will be primarily domestic, then perhaps by the fall/winter season it may spread to beach locations in the Caribbean and Mexico. Although UA was the weakest domestic carrier when compared to AA, DL and WN, could AA's financial position provide UA with an opening to hit the reset button domestically and perhaps gain some much needed domestic market share.

Looking at UA's current fleet what would be a good strategy going forward for UA to gain domestic market share seeing that we have the largest wide-body fleet but the smallest narrow-body fleet? Are our wide-bodies useless in a fight for a larger piece of the domestic market?


I think grouping DL/WN together is unwarranted. WN will have more cash than debt at end of Q2, whereas DL will be swimming in debt by the end of Q2. In term of financial health, it's more like
AA <gap> UA <gap> DL <huge gap> WN

I think coming into this, AA and UA were in about the same position in terms of how much trouble they are in. AA had higher debt/fixed costs but UA was more exposed in terms of all the widebodies + international exposure. Two months in and it's clear that AA's management is just not up to task. They are burning 50% more cash per day than UA.

At this point, we are not going to have V shaped recovery and probably likely not a U shaped recovery, but a L shaped recovery. Given that's the case, airlines will still be struggling next year to break even for much of the year. There just no way AA avoids chapter 11. This recent attempt by UA at raising debt that's backed by older widebodies should show the market simply isn't going to value aircraft at the same way that even third party appraisers are going to. If investors are scared of your liquidity position, they are just not going to take unencumbered aircraft as assets. So aside from CARES act loans, I'm really not sure where else AA can get loans from. UA has tried pretty hard thus far, but I think it will have to take the gov't loans also. The difference is that I think UA actually has a good chance of avoiding the courts as long as it keeps the burn rate low. Yes, it will probably end up reducing its work force by 1/3 in order to lower its burn rate to like $20 million a day in Q4, but that's at least a honest way of looking at the danger of the situation. AA is acting like it will resume 80% of flying by next Q2 when it's burning $70 million a day in Q2. By my calculation, they will be down to $4 billion liquidity by end of this year even including the additional loan from federal gov't. And DL is talking about trying to be cash neutral by the end of this year while burning $50 million a day in June? That seems wildly optimistic.

And once AA hits the courts, it's going to really cut its work force and fleet and those precious slots at LGA/DCA and gates at LAX/ORD are going to get lost too. I would not be surprised if AA comes out of this smaller than UA. At least with UA, I could see a way for them to get out of this in another year and bring back some of its work force. I do expect UA to be substantially smaller a year from, probably 30% smaller. As for how long it will take UA to recover, that's really a matter of both domestic economy and TATL/TPAC demand.
 
xxcr
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sat May 09, 2020 10:10 pm

Anyone heard about UA not bringing back the 764? i follow Diecastjames on instagram, and he posted something this morning saying "united has decided they wont bring back their 764 fleet after this virus blows over"

if this is true, i guess it paid off for UA to hold off the polaris retrofit for that plane.
 
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intotheair
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sat May 09, 2020 10:12 pm

^^^

I think that's some good analysis, though I still have hope that the recovery will come sooner. The number of people flying is already starting to pick up (not by a ton, but it's something). I agree that I think UA is being the most honest (if a little blunt) about the pain that's coming, whereas AA appears to be in denial.
300 319 320 321 332 333 345 346 380 717 733 734 735 73G 738 739 744 752 753 762 763 772 77W 788 789 CR2 CR7 CR9 CRK Q400 E175 DC10 MD82 MD90
AA AF AS AY AZ B6 BA BR DL F9 FI GA HA KF LH MI QX SK SN SQ UA US VY WN
 
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VirginFlyer
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sat May 09, 2020 10:28 pm

xxcr wrote:
Anyone heard about UA not bringing back the 764? i follow Diecastjames on instagram, and he posted something this morning saying "united has decided they wont bring back their 764 fleet after this virus blows over"

if this is true, i guess it paid off for UA to hold off the polaris retrofit for that plane.

It is discussed on the previous page of this thread:

United1 wrote:
UA444 wrote:
redrooster3 wrote:
This looks like the end for the 764s and PW757s. In an email I got earlier today.

"Currently, we’ve parked 450 mainline aircraft and 300 United Express aircraft across 23 locations. Some of those planes were already slated for retirement, including our B767-400 and B757 PS fleets."

Bigger bombshell is the fact they previously planned to retire the 764 in the first place.


That is a big bombshell but I suppose not all that surprising after the additional 78X orders.

I wonder if UA had/has a buyer lined up for them. UA generally markets their former aircraft to airlines they don't compete with so will be interesting to see where they end up.


V/F
It is not for him to pride himself who loveth his own country, but rather for him who loveth the whole world. The earth is but one country, and mankind its citizens. —Bahá'u'lláh
 
nonrevelite
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sun May 10, 2020 2:56 am

intotheair wrote:
^^^

I think that's some good analysis, though I still have hope that the recovery will come sooner. The number of people flying is already starting to pick up (not by a ton, but it's something). I agree that I think UA is being the most honest (if a little blunt) about the pain that's coming, whereas AA appears to be in denial.


Not the best source for inside information; and the 767-400s have not been slated for retirement.
Airlines : 6E 9W AA AC AI AM AQ AT B6 BA BR CI CM CO CX EA EK ET EY FL GF GF HA HP HX JQ K2 K6 KA KE KL KU LO MA MH N7 NH NW OV OZ PE PI QF QR RJ SG TG TK UA UH UL US VS WN YT ZK
Aircraft : Over 60 types including the B-17
Airports : Over 150
 
LGeneReese
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sun May 10, 2020 3:14 am

FlyingElvii wrote:
752 as UA2720 going to Roswell from Orlando, right now.
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/UAL ... /KMCO/KROW

Sadly this was N14102/Ship 0102, Her Art NYC... I’m sure she will fly again...
 
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sun May 10, 2020 3:51 am

nonrevelite wrote:
intotheair wrote:
^^^

I think that's some good analysis, though I still have hope that the recovery will come sooner. The number of people flying is already starting to pick up (not by a ton, but it's something). I agree that I think UA is being the most honest (if a little blunt) about the pain that's coming, whereas AA appears to be in denial.


Not the best source for inside information; and the 767-400s have not been slated for retirement.

redrooster3's post sounds like it comes from a more solid source:

redrooster3 wrote:
This looks like the end for the 764s and PW757s. In an email I got earlier today.

"Currently, we’ve parked 450 mainline aircraft and 300 United Express aircraft across 23 locations. Some of those planes were already slated for retirement, including our B767-400 and B757 PS fleets."


V/F
It is not for him to pride himself who loveth his own country, but rather for him who loveth the whole world. The earth is but one country, and mankind its citizens. —Bahá'u'lláh
 
MSPNWA
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sun May 10, 2020 5:06 am

redrooster3 wrote:
This looks like the end for the 764s and PW757s. In an email I got earlier today.

"Currently, we’ve parked 450 mainline aircraft and 300 United Express aircraft across 23 locations. Some of those planes were already slated for retirement, including our B767-400 and B757 PS fleets."


Interesting, but since the 764 wasn't already slated for retirement, it does call into question the accuracy of the information.

tphuang wrote:
I think grouping DL/WN together is unwarranted. WN will have more cash than debt at end of Q2, whereas DL will be swimming in debt by the end of Q2. In term of financial health, it's more like
AA <gap> UA <gap> DL <huge gap> WN

I think coming into this, AA and UA were in about the same position in terms of how much trouble they are in. AA had higher debt/fixed costs but UA was more exposed in terms of all the widebodies + international exposure. Two months in and it's clear that AA's management is just not up to task. They are burning 50% more cash per day than UA.

At this point, we are not going to have V shaped recovery and probably likely not a U shaped recovery, but a L shaped recovery. Given that's the case, airlines will still be struggling next year to break even for much of the year. There just no way AA avoids chapter 11. This recent attempt by UA at raising debt that's backed by older widebodies should show the market simply isn't going to value aircraft at the same way that even third party appraisers are going to. If investors are scared of your liquidity position, they are just not going to take unencumbered aircraft as assets. So aside from CARES act loans, I'm really not sure where else AA can get loans from. UA has tried pretty hard thus far, but I think it will have to take the gov't loans also. The difference is that I think UA actually has a good chance of avoiding the courts as long as it keeps the burn rate low. Yes, it will probably end up reducing its work force by 1/3 in order to lower its burn rate to like $20 million a day in Q4, but that's at least a honest way of looking at the danger of the situation. AA is acting like it will resume 80% of flying by next Q2 when it's burning $70 million a day in Q2. By my calculation, they will be down to $4 billion liquidity by end of this year even including the additional loan from federal gov't. And DL is talking about trying to be cash neutral by the end of this year while burning $50 million a day in June? That seems wildly optimistic.

And once AA hits the courts, it's going to really cut its work force and fleet and those precious slots at LGA/DCA and gates at LAX/ORD are going to get lost too. I would not be surprised if AA comes out of this smaller than UA. At least with UA, I could see a way for them to get out of this in another year and bring back some of its work force. I do expect UA to be substantially smaller a year from, probably 30% smaller. As for how long it will take UA to recover, that's really a matter of both domestic economy and TATL/TPAC demand.


In this environment, you can essentially throw out debt load when it comes to the financial viability of an airline. In fact, you can even pretty much throw it out in stable times, like the one we just exited ((as a side note, DL's true debt load (including their laughably optimistic underfunded pension liability) prior to the collapse was comparable to UA's, and when you adjust debt further against fleet age, AA, DL, and UA were all remarkably close to one another)).

What will matter going forward is who can turn cash-flow positive the quickest and keep that positive momentum going the fastest/farthest. That could be any of the carriers. This will be an extended period of determining new financial front-runners. Not only is the cost adjustment side of each carrier undetermined, there's no doubt that demand won't return in a known, predictable fashion. With all this even AA could end up being the strongest in the long-run. I wouldn't put my money on it, but their "peril" (along with UA's) is far from the cut-and-dry situation people make it out to be. Take WN for example. Good balance sheet, but burning through more cash than necessary with their less severe capacity cuts. That balance sheet advantage will go away in a hurry if they don't make the right moves in the coming months and years. When you look at current cash burn versus previous ASM counts, UA is doing well in that area. Will that translate into a the best recovery? Maybe. The point is we have no idea who will make the best decisions.
 
FR24Virus
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sun May 10, 2020 11:45 am

calpsafltskeds wrote:
319:
N836UA exited DLH 2755/8May with 12F/36E+/78Y configuration.
69 of 74 complete.

772:
N76010 sked to exited HKG 2864/10May w/Polaris/PP
772GE #20 of 22 complete (N78013 expected to exit HKG soon, N77014 stored in IAH)

78X:
N13013 first revenue flight 989/5May IAD-FRA


N78013 2849/10May
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/n78013
 
VC10er
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sun May 10, 2020 12:40 pm

After May 15th, both 787-10’s from EWR/SFO/LAX show seat maps of Diamond Seats.

Which is it? I don’t understand why they show a 787-10 but the seat map of a different aircraft? I am planning on flying. Thanks!
To Most the Sky is The Limit, For me, the Sky is Home.
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sun May 10, 2020 12:52 pm

VC10er wrote:
After May 15th, both 787-10’s from EWR/SFO/LAX show seat maps of Diamond Seats.

Which is it? I don’t understand why they show a 787-10 but the seat map of a different aircraft? I am planning on flying. Thanks!


I think it might be a 788 like United threw in last minute.
 
codc10
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sun May 10, 2020 1:52 pm

EssentialPowr wrote:
With the failure of the bond issue, UAL is under even more pressure to reduce costs. The 30% size reduction is the start of the new baseline size. Every work group will get the 30% as of 1 Oct, with certain leadership indicating pilots should draw their own conclusions give the info UAL has put out. It’s time for new UAL management, as the current committee (which should be a singular person in crisis) is clueless.

TSA numbers show 215000 screened yesterday compared to 171000 a week ago; we will all take that improvement!


The incremental growth is a good sign, but we are still <10% of where we were this time last year. In other words, still at crisis level.

Again, I wouldn't read the bond failure as a sign United is on the brink of anything, and certainly not as an indictment of management. Its purpose was a refinance of existing aircraft-secured debt to extract more cash, and the market is saying it does not believe old aircraft (especially 737s and A320s) have much value. United's ability to pay is priced in, as well, but the real concern last week was the quality of the asset. I think everyone was surprised by the result.

In challenging times, management is always "clueless". But this is no ordinary recession, downturn or otherwise. There's really no blueprint for success here.

tphuang wrote:
jayunited wrote:
codc10 wrote:
I would also agree that United falls somewhere between AA and DL/WN in terms of prospects coming out of this crisis. UA is in better financial health than AA, but if the recovery is primarily domestic, its starting position is behind the others.


You do make a great point about domestic vs international.

I do believe in the beginning the recovery will be primarily domestic, then perhaps by the fall/winter season it may spread to beach locations in the Caribbean and Mexico. Although UA was the weakest domestic carrier when compared to AA, DL and WN, could AA's financial position provide UA with an opening to hit the reset button domestically and perhaps gain some much needed domestic market share.

Looking at UA's current fleet what would be a good strategy going forward for UA to gain domestic market share seeing that we have the largest wide-body fleet but the smallest narrow-body fleet? Are our wide-bodies useless in a fight for a larger piece of the domestic market?


I think grouping DL/WN together is unwarranted. WN will have more cash than debt at end of Q2, whereas DL will be swimming in debt by the end of Q2. In term of financial health, it's more like
AA <gap> UA <gap> DL <huge gap> WN

I think coming into this, AA and UA were in about the same position in terms of how much trouble they are in. AA had higher debt/fixed costs but UA was more exposed in terms of all the widebodies + international exposure. Two months in and it's clear that AA's management is just not up to task. They are burning 50% more cash per day than UA.

At this point, we are not going to have V shaped recovery and probably likely not a U shaped recovery, but a L shaped recovery. Given that's the case, airlines will still be struggling next year to break even for much of the year. There just no way AA avoids chapter 11. This recent attempt by UA at raising debt that's backed by older widebodies should show the market simply isn't going to value aircraft at the same way that even third party appraisers are going to. If investors are scared of your liquidity position, they are just not going to take unencumbered aircraft as assets. So aside from CARES act loans, I'm really not sure where else AA can get loans from. UA has tried pretty hard thus far, but I think it will have to take the gov't loans also. The difference is that I think UA actually has a good chance of avoiding the courts as long as it keeps the burn rate low. Yes, it will probably end up reducing its work force by 1/3 in order to lower its burn rate to like $20 million a day in Q4, but that's at least a honest way of looking at the danger of the situation. AA is acting like it will resume 80% of flying by next Q2 when it's burning $70 million a day in Q2. By my calculation, they will be down to $4 billion liquidity by end of this year even including the additional loan from federal gov't. And DL is talking about trying to be cash neutral by the end of this year while burning $50 million a day in June? That seems wildly optimistic.

And once AA hits the courts, it's going to really cut its work force and fleet and those precious slots at LGA/DCA and gates at LAX/ORD are going to get lost too. I would not be surprised if AA comes out of this smaller than UA. At least with UA, I could see a way for them to get out of this in another year and bring back some of its work force. I do expect UA to be substantially smaller a year from, probably 30% smaller. As for how long it will take UA to recover, that's really a matter of both domestic economy and TATL/TPAC demand.


I only classify DL and WN together as they were clearly viewed a notch or two healthier than UAL entering the crisis.

I agree that the leadership positions industry could very well be reshuffled in this recovery.
 
redrooster3
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sun May 10, 2020 3:21 pm

MSPNWA wrote:
redrooster3 wrote:
This looks like the end for the 764s and PW757s. In an email I got earlier today.

"Currently, we’ve parked 450 mainline aircraft and 300 United Express aircraft across 23 locations. Some of those planes were already slated for retirement, including our B767-400 and B757 PS fleets."


Interesting, but since the 764 wasn't already slated for retirement, it does call into question the accuracy of the information.



My sources comes straight from company email which Ramp/CS/Tech ops all receive. Dated May 8th, straight from Jon Roitman
Marry one of us, and you'll fly for free!
 
Ishrion
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sun May 10, 2020 3:25 pm

redrooster3 wrote:
MSPNWA wrote:
redrooster3 wrote:
This looks like the end for the 764s and PW757s. In an email I got earlier today.

"Currently, we’ve parked 450 mainline aircraft and 300 United Express aircraft across 23 locations. Some of those planes were already slated for retirement, including our B767-400 and B757 PS fleets."


Interesting, but since the 764 wasn't already slated for retirement, it does call into question the accuracy of the information.



My sources comes straight from company email which Ramp/CS/Tech ops all receive. Dated May 8th, straight from Jon Roitman


Article on this: http://aeronauticsonline.com/united-air ... g-767-400/
 
xxcr
Posts: 468
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sun May 10, 2020 4:24 pm

redrooster3 wrote:
MSPNWA wrote:
redrooster3 wrote:
This looks like the end for the 764s and PW757s. In an email I got earlier today.

"Currently, we’ve parked 450 mainline aircraft and 300 United Express aircraft across 23 locations. Some of those planes were already slated for retirement, including our B767-400 and B757 PS fleets."


Interesting, but since the 764 wasn't already slated for retirement, it does call into question the accuracy of the information.



My sources comes straight from company email which Ramp/CS/Tech ops all receive. Dated May 8th, straight from Jon Roitman


Im not surprised they are retiring the PW 752, those birds had a lot of issues. 2017/2019, i flew SFO-EWR-SFO a lot, usually around 10-12 flights per year, and i avoided the PW since they were always delayed because of a mechanical issue. the RR birds were older inside, but were more reliable.

Cant beat the 78J on that route, that plane is so quiet and comfortable. Its nice to see an occasional 77W or polaris 772 swap!!!
 
Ishrion
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sun May 10, 2020 5:03 pm

Ishrion wrote:


Now they’ve updated it to “United Considers Retiring 767-400s”
 
jayunited
Posts: 2960
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sun May 10, 2020 5:05 pm

MSPNWA wrote:
redrooster3 wrote:
This looks like the end for the 764s and PW757s. In an email I got earlier today.

"Currently, we’ve parked 450 mainline aircraft and 300 United Express aircraft across 23 locations. Some of those planes were already slated for retirement, including our B767-400 and B757 PS fleets."


Interesting, but since the 764 wasn't already slated for retirement, it does call into question the accuracy of the information.


The accuracy of the information is confirmed I have also seen the email which does state the PW 752s and the 764s are slated for retirement.

More than likely that decision on the 764s were made after the January Polaris/PE schedule update which there hasn't been an updated schedule since January when prior to COVId-19 there were monthly updates at the very least. Not sure what impact the additional 78X order had on the decision to retire the 764 fleet. But obviously sometime after mid-January UA made a decision to order more 78Xs and retire the 764s. Coronavirus may have sped up UA's timetable but just because things have changed since January does not mean the information posted is in accurate. Most insiders on this thread are posting the most accurate information we have at the time o four post. The decision to retire the 764s was not made known to employees until this week, just as the decision to exercise options for 7 additional 78Xs was not known publicly until UA released their Q1 results. Although insiders like myself over 2 years ago were posting that we had seen internal documents showing the 78X fleet being larger than just 14 frames.
 
nonrevelite
Posts: 19
Joined: Sun Jan 24, 2016 2:44 pm

Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sun May 10, 2020 5:36 pm

jayunited wrote:
MSPNWA wrote:
redrooster3 wrote:
This looks like the end for the 764s and PW757s. In an email I got earlier today.

"Currently, we’ve parked 450 mainline aircraft and 300 United Express aircraft across 23 locations. Some of those planes were already slated for retirement, including our B767-400 and B757 PS fleets."


Interesting, but since the 764 wasn't already slated for retirement, it does call into question the accuracy of the information.


The accuracy of the information is confirmed I have also seen the email which does state the PW 752s and the 764s are slated for retirement.

More than likely that decision on the 764s were made after the January Polaris/PE schedule update which there hasn't been an updated schedule since January when prior to COVId-19 there were monthly updates at the very least. Not sure what impact the additional 78X order had on the decision to retire the 764 fleet. But obviously sometime after mid-January UA made a decision to order more 78Xs and retire the 764s. Coronavirus may have sped up UA's timetable but just because things have changed since January does not mean the information posted is in accurate. Most insiders on this thread are posting the most accurate information we have at the time o four post. The decision to retire the 764s was not made known to employees until this week, just as the decision to exercise options for 7 additional 78Xs was not known publicly until UA released their Q1 results. Although insiders like myself over 2 years ago were posting that we had seen internal documents showing the 78X fleet being larger than just 14 frames.


Thank you MSPNWA; and JayUnited, I have seen the same emails it doesn’t state the 767-400s are slated for retirement!
Airlines : 6E 9W AA AC AI AM AQ AT B6 BA BR CI CM CO CX EA EK ET EY FL GF GF HA HP HX JQ K2 K6 KA KE KL KU LO MA MH N7 NH NW OV OZ PE PI QF QR RJ SG TG TK UA UH UL US VS WN YT ZK
Aircraft : Over 60 types including the B-17
Airports : Over 150
 
EssentialPowr
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sun May 10, 2020 9:19 pm

Codc10, “ Again, I wouldn't read the bond failure as a sign United is on the brink of anything, and certainly not as an indictment of management.”

I never mentioned United is on the brink of anything, only that there is even more pressure on them. United’s leadership is really struggling with credibility with the employees it seems, and once again UAL is way too top heavy with HR and social issue types and has wasted a lot of money on things that don’t have a direct ROI for an airline.
 
Runway28L
Posts: 2099
Joined: Wed Sep 20, 2017 7:35 pm

Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sun May 10, 2020 9:59 pm

xxcr wrote:
Anyone heard about UA not bringing back the 764? i follow Diecastjames on instagram, and he posted something this morning saying "united has decided they wont bring back their 764 fleet after this virus blows over"

if this is true, i guess it paid off for UA to hold off the polaris retrofit for that plane.

I wouldn’t read too much into it. There is so much misinformation being spread by aviation enthusiasts right now on Instagram.
 
 
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comairguycvg
Posts: 248
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sun May 10, 2020 11:04 pm

Looks like Star Wars is going to KINT tomorrow.

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/N36272
Worked at: CV62, RJTA, KNLC, CV63, KNFL, OKAJ, KTRI, CV67, KMGE, KNQX, KVPS, KPIT, KCVG, KTYS, KATL
 
jayunited
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sun May 10, 2020 11:07 pm

Looks like there are a few aircraft flying out of XMN on Monday 5/11/2020.

But first N2142U will fly HKG-XMN as UA2745-11 there will be a total of 11 pilots on board the inbound flights and N2142UA will remain at XMN for maintenance.

N783UA operates 2750-11 XMN-SFO 4 pilots
N2140U operates 2746-11 XMN-HKG 2 pilots
N880UA operates 2703-11 XMN-NRT 3 pilots
N798UA operates 2690-11 XMN-HKG 2 pilots

Both 77Es have Polaris/PE installed, the 77W was there I think for maintenance and I'm not sure about the A319.
 
UA444
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sun May 10, 2020 11:16 pm

codc10 wrote:
EssentialPowr wrote:
With the failure of the bond issue, UAL is under even more pressure to reduce costs. The 30% size reduction is the start of the new baseline size. Every work group will get the 30% as of 1 Oct, with certain leadership indicating pilots should draw their own conclusions give the info UAL has put out. It’s time for new UAL management, as the current committee (which should be a singular person in crisis) is clueless.

TSA numbers show 215000 screened yesterday compared to 171000 a week ago; we will all take that improvement!


The incremental growth is a good sign, but we are still <10% of where we were this time last year. In other words, still at crisis level.

Again, I wouldn't read the bond failure as a sign United is on the brink of anything, and certainly not as an indictment of management. Its purpose was a refinance of existing aircraft-secured debt to extract more cash, and the market is saying it does not believe old aircraft (especially 737s and A320s) have much value. United's ability to pay is priced in, as well, but the real concern last week was the quality of the asset. I think everyone was surprised by the result.

In challenging times, management is always "clueless". But this is no ordinary recession, downturn or otherwise. There's really no blueprint for success here.

tphuang wrote:
jayunited wrote:

You do make a great point about domestic vs international.

I do believe in the beginning the recovery will be primarily domestic, then perhaps by the fall/winter season it may spread to beach locations in the Caribbean and Mexico. Although UA was the weakest domestic carrier when compared to AA, DL and WN, could AA's financial position provide UA with an opening to hit the reset button domestically and perhaps gain some much needed domestic market share.

Looking at UA's current fleet what would be a good strategy going forward for UA to gain domestic market share seeing that we have the largest wide-body fleet but the smallest narrow-body fleet? Are our wide-bodies useless in a fight for a larger piece of the domestic market?


I think grouping DL/WN together is unwarranted. WN will have more cash than debt at end of Q2, whereas DL will be swimming in debt by the end of Q2. In term of financial health, it's more like
AA <gap> UA <gap> DL <huge gap> WN

I think coming into this, AA and UA were in about the same position in terms of how much trouble they are in. AA had higher debt/fixed costs but UA was more exposed in terms of all the widebodies + international exposure. Two months in and it's clear that AA's management is just not up to task. They are burning 50% more cash per day than UA.

At this point, we are not going to have V shaped recovery and probably likely not a U shaped recovery, but a L shaped recovery. Given that's the case, airlines will still be struggling next year to break even for much of the year. There just no way AA avoids chapter 11. This recent attempt by UA at raising debt that's backed by older widebodies should show the market simply isn't going to value aircraft at the same way that even third party appraisers are going to. If investors are scared of your liquidity position, they are just not going to take unencumbered aircraft as assets. So aside from CARES act loans, I'm really not sure where else AA can get loans from. UA has tried pretty hard thus far, but I think it will have to take the gov't loans also. The difference is that I think UA actually has a good chance of avoiding the courts as long as it keeps the burn rate low. Yes, it will probably end up reducing its work force by 1/3 in order to lower its burn rate to like $20 million a day in Q4, but that's at least a honest way of looking at the danger of the situation. AA is acting like it will resume 80% of flying by next Q2 when it's burning $70 million a day in Q2. By my calculation, they will be down to $4 billion liquidity by end of this year even including the additional loan from federal gov't. And DL is talking about trying to be cash neutral by the end of this year while burning $50 million a day in June? That seems wildly optimistic.

And once AA hits the courts, it's going to really cut its work force and fleet and those precious slots at LGA/DCA and gates at LAX/ORD are going to get lost too. I would not be surprised if AA comes out of this smaller than UA. At least with UA, I could see a way for them to get out of this in another year and bring back some of its work force. I do expect UA to be substantially smaller a year from, probably 30% smaller. As for how long it will take UA to recover, that's really a matter of both domestic economy and TATL/TPAC demand.


I only classify DL and WN together as they were clearly viewed a notch or two healthier than UAL entering the crisis.

I agree that the leadership positions industry could very well be reshuffled in this recovery.

There’s an SEC filing that lists the aircraft involved as collateral. It’s essentially everything owned from the 1990s to mid 2000s. 737s, Airbus, 757, 767, 777. I was quite shocked that it was rejected as well, as in years past planes of similar age have been used as collateral before.

The lenders view a lot of those aircraft as low hanging fruit to be cut the longer this goes on. I wonder if they’ll try to sweeten the pot by including newer planes in there, if that option is available to them.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data ... dex101.htm
 
airplanedriver6
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sun May 10, 2020 11:25 pm

Of interest to the 767-400 and 757 discussion, the current pilot displacement was amended late Friday afternoon with a couple hundred fewer displacements. The pilots were also told that the 756 fleet would be sized to support 767-300ER flying. The displacement now anticipates 225 captains on the 756 fleet systemwide and United typically staffs approximately six captains per aircraft. There are 38 767-300ERs.

Do the math. ;)

(But all subject to change, of course. The plan is constantly changing in this environment.)
Last edited by airplanedriver6 on Sun May 10, 2020 11:38 pm, edited 3 times in total.
 
jetmatt777
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sun May 10, 2020 11:26 pm

3857 - 757-300 scheduled DEN-LSE-ELP-DEN tomorrow. assuming LSE-ELP is a military charter. Good for UA to find some creative solutions to keep these birds flying.
 
UA444
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sun May 10, 2020 11:27 pm

airplanedriver6 wrote:
Of interest to the 767-400 and 757 discussion, the current pilot displacement was amended late Friday afternoon with a couple hundred fewer displacements. The pilots were also told that the 756 fleet would be sized to support 767-300ER flying. The displacement now anticipates 225 captains on the 756 fleet systemwide and United typically staffs approximately six captains per aircraft. There are 38 767-300ERs.

Do the math. ;)

Would basically mean they keep all 763s and dump all 757s and 764s. Painful, but necessary. Some of those 763s have cheated retirement plans like a sport.
 
jayunited
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Mon May 11, 2020 12:07 am

airplanedriver6 wrote:
Of interest to the 767-400 and 757 discussion, the current pilot displacement was amended late Friday afternoon with a couple hundred fewer displacements. The pilots were also told that the 756 fleet would be sized to support 767-300ER flying. The displacement now anticipates 225 captains on the 756 fleet systemwide and United typically staffs approximately six captains per aircraft. There are 38 767-300ERs.

Do the math. ;)

(But all subject to change, of course. The plan is constantly changing in this environment.)


Perhaps the reason for the fewer displacements is because we are starting to see a slight ( and I stress slight) uptick in demand. Even for last minute tickets more people are starting to fly again but this does not mean it is safe to assume the industry has bottomed out.

I do not have any new information concerning the 757s or 767s, but UA is talking about pulling around 20 narrow-body (I would assume 737s and A320/19s) out of storage for the June domestic schedule. Again right now this is just talk but UA may might be some additional domestic flying added back into the June schedule.

Another reason UA is considering reactivating some narrow-body aircraft is because we are violating our own social distancing policy. Remember airlines voluntarily decided to adopt the CDC's social distancing guidelines on-board so passengers would feel more comfortable. This past Friday May 8th UA saw its highest load factor since early April and even today we are seeing a lot more people flying than what we expected back in April when the May schedule was finalized. These higher load factors have made social distancing a bit challenging on some domestic flights.

Keep in mind for the month of May UA is only flying 10% of a normal schedule so again this does not mean we have turned the corner in this crisis, but it is a nice to see more people flying domestically.
 
airplanedriver6
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Mon May 11, 2020 12:11 am

UA444 wrote:
airplanedriver6 wrote:
Of interest to the 767-400 and 757 discussion, the current pilot displacement was amended late Friday afternoon with a couple hundred fewer displacements. The pilots were also told that the 756 fleet would be sized to support 767-300ER flying. The displacement now anticipates 225 captains on the 756 fleet systemwide and United typically staffs approximately six captains per aircraft. There are 38 767-300ERs.

Do the math. ;)

Would basically mean they keep all 763s and dump all 757s and 764s. Painful, but necessary. Some of those 763s have cheated retirement plans like a sport.

Yes.

But it should also be noted that the displacement represents in many ways a worst case scenario. UAL can move all the way to just 767-300s, or keep the entire 756 fleet, or easily flex to anything in-between.
 
NLINK
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Mon May 11, 2020 1:00 am

Something else people don't fully realize is a to of these decisions are being made by the CFO. For those saying no way the 767-400ER will not. be retired before the 767-300ER you have to look at the bigger picture as it is actually the odd ball fleet and odd ball engines.
If the cut out the GE CF6, which there only 16 AC, they will be able to have the GE90, GEnx, and PW4000. Same thing AA did, going from 6 WB engines to 3 WB engines.
 
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keesje
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Mon May 11, 2020 7:25 am

Ishrion wrote:
Ishrion wrote:


Now they’ve updated it to “United Considers Retiring 767-400s”


Maybe Delta will pick them up eventually, but they arenot in a hurry either.
They seems succesfull with fleet end of life strategy's.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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calpsafltskeds
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Mon May 11, 2020 2:12 pm

Thanks Jay, confirming
319:
N880UA, Ex China Southern B-2296 exited XMN Induction 2703/11May, headed to USA via ANC

772:
N783UA exited XMN 2750/11May in Polaris/PP, completing 772PW Polaris program (3 stored ITPE 772PWs to become Domestic in limbo)
N798UA exited maint XMN 26900/11May

77W: N2140U exited XMN maint 2855/11May
77W: N2142U entered XMN maint 2145/11May

RE 764s, UA must be parking the 764 until the aircraft sell as they are too valuable to scrap vs. older 763s. Looking at all the above posts it makes sense to dump that fleet under the current circumstances. 1.) demand down/cash crisis, 2.) Polaris not installed, 3.) small fleet with only CF6 engines in entire fleet, 4.) resale value, 5.) how many believe pilot pay difference vs. 763 was a factor?
 
airplanedriver6
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Mon May 11, 2020 2:42 pm

calpsafltskeds wrote:
5.) how many believe pilot pay difference vs. 763 was a factor?

I believe that it was one of many factors that combined made the 764 more expensive to operate. The higher pilot expenses as a stand-alone figure did not move the needle much, IMHO, especially considering that a loaded 764 also generated much more revenue than a 763.
 
codc10
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Mon May 11, 2020 2:52 pm

airplanedriver6 wrote:
calpsafltskeds wrote:
5.) how many believe pilot pay difference vs. 763 was a factor?

I believe that it was one of many factors that combined made the 764 more expensive to operate. The higher pilot expenses as a stand-alone figure did not move the needle much, IMHO, especially considering that a loaded 764 also generated much more revenue than a 763.


Yes, in a reduced passenger demand environment, the calculus now is in favor of cargo capacity versus pax (favoring 777, 787), and absent that, lower fixed costs (favoring 763, 787). 764 is optimized as a pax hauler.

Not to mention that UA has dumped $1b++ capex in cabin mods for the 767 and 777 fleets, for which it would desperately like to generate a return. The 764's most recent major discretionary capex items are interiors for which, by now, UA has likely depreciated and recovered the capital cost.
 
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FLALEFTY
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Mon May 11, 2020 6:16 pm

On the Aviation Planning site, Mike Boyd is reporting in his Monday Insight column today that United has cancelled their order for B737MAX10's. Some Google searches have not turned up any confirmation, yet. You have to scroll down in his Monday rant, but he briefly mentions the cancellation.

https://www.aviationplanning.com/monday-flash-2-2-2/
 
United1
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Mon May 11, 2020 7:12 pm

FLALEFTY wrote:
On the Aviation Planning site, Mike Boyd is reporting in his Monday Insight column today that United has cancelled their order for B737MAX10's. Some Google searches have not turned up any confirmation, yet. You have to scroll down in his Monday rant, but he briefly mentions the cancellation.

https://www.aviationplanning.com/monday-flash-2-2-2/


It's possible but in March UA had reached an agreement with BA for compensation for the entire mess. Cancelations were not mentioned in UAs 10Q...just a reduction in price. They also mentioned on the Q1 call UA plans on taking delivery of 16 737MAXs this year and 24 next year contingent on the grounding being lifted.

I wonder if UA swapped its -10s for other smaller 737 models vs an outright cancelation.
I know the voices in my head aren't real but sometimes their ideas are just awesome!!!
 
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LAXintl
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Mon May 11, 2020 7:45 pm

Doubtful as only on Friday in his TechOps update the VP posted the picture of the 737MAX-10 being built in Seattle with the following statement:

Looking ahead
I know it seems like it is a long way off but there will come a time when things will begin to look normal again and initiatives such as growing the fleet won’t seem like a strange concept. Although we won’t be taking delivery of this aircraft in the near future, our third 737 MAX 10, which is currently in the final assembly phase at the Boeing factory. I, for one, am anxiously awaiting the day when we will once again see our fleet fly the friendly skies.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
EssentialPowr
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Mon May 11, 2020 8:12 pm

LAXintl wrote:
Doubtful as only on Friday in his TechOps update the VP posted the picture of the 737MAX-10 being built in Seattle with the following statement:

Looking ahead
I know it seems like it is a long way off but there will come a time when things will begin to look normal again and initiatives such as growing the fleet won’t seem like a strange concept. Although we won’t be taking delivery of this aircraft in the near future, our third 737 MAX 10, which is currently in the final assembly phase at the Boeing factory. I, for one, am anxiously awaiting the day when we will once again see our fleet fly the friendly skies.


Is this individual VP named?
 
DC8FanJet
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Mon May 11, 2020 8:57 pm

A decision that impactful would have to be declared in an SEC filing. No filings by company since earnings release
 
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intotheair
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Mon May 11, 2020 9:00 pm

In other news, Brett Hart promoted to President of United effective May 20.

https://www.chicagotribune.com/business ... story.html

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-release ... 56911.html
300 319 320 321 332 333 345 346 380 717 733 734 735 73G 738 739 744 752 753 762 763 772 77W 788 789 CR2 CR7 CR9 CRK Q400 E175 DC10 MD82 MD90
AA AF AS AY AZ B6 BA BR DL F9 FI GA HA KF LH MI QX SK SN SQ UA US VY WN
 
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FLALEFTY
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Mon May 11, 2020 9:42 pm

United1 wrote:
FLALEFTY wrote:
On the Aviation Planning site, Mike Boyd is reporting in his Monday Insight column today that United has cancelled their order for B737MAX10's. Some Google searches have not turned up any confirmation, yet. You have to scroll down in his Monday rant, but he briefly mentions the cancellation.

https://www.aviationplanning.com/monday-flash-2-2-2/


It's possible but in March UA had reached an agreement with BA for compensation for the entire mess. Cancelations were not mentioned in UAs 10Q...just a reduction in price. They also mentioned on the Q1 call UA plans on taking delivery of 16 737MAXs this year and 24 next year contingent on the grounding being lifted.

I wonder if UA swapped its -10s for other smaller 737 models vs an outright cancelation.


Mike Boyd tends to shoot from the hip often, so this United 737MAX10 cancellation may have come to him during a "tinfoil hat" fever dream? I'm a regular reader of his "Monday Insights" and often runs wild with industry rumors.

As for canceling the 737MAX10, it would be odd considering that United is the launch customer and had the variant designed to their specifications.
 
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cosyr
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Mon May 11, 2020 10:29 pm

FLALEFTY wrote:
United1 wrote:
FLALEFTY wrote:
On the Aviation Planning site, Mike Boyd is reporting in his Monday Insight column today that United has cancelled their order for B737MAX10's. Some Google searches have not turned up any confirmation, yet. You have to scroll down in his Monday rant, but he briefly mentions the cancellation.

https://www.aviationplanning.com/monday-flash-2-2-2/


It's possible but in March UA had reached an agreement with BA for compensation for the entire mess. Cancelations were not mentioned in UAs 10Q...just a reduction in price. They also mentioned on the Q1 call UA plans on taking delivery of 16 737MAXs this year and 24 next year contingent on the grounding being lifted.

I wonder if UA swapped its -10s for other smaller 737 models vs an outright cancelation.


Mike Boyd tends to shoot from the hip often, so this United 737MAX10 cancellation may have come to him during a "tinfoil hat" fever dream? I'm a regular reader of his "Monday Insights" and often runs wild with industry rumors.

As for canceling the 737MAX10, it would be odd considering that United is the launch customer and had the variant designed to their specifications.

I don't know about reputability, but it is here too from May 2. https://www.travelpulse.com/news/airlin ... rders.html
 
Nicknuzzii
Posts: 1233
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Mon May 11, 2020 10:37 pm

So if this Max -10 cancellation is true what in the world is the plan for Transcons?

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