I'm a 1K flyer with a global consulting firm and expect that once business travel begins to rebound it will come back pretty quickly. I expect the amount of travel that the average consultant does to go down, especially at the junior levels given how effective people have been with Zoom, etc. but nothing replaces face-to-face meetings and working sessions.
Once offices begin to open back up in meaningful ways, travel will begin to resume. For offices that are open, most are limited to 10-25% of capacity with no services (e.g. no coffee) so there isn't a reason to go in unless you need to bulk print or a quiet place to work away from kids and other distractions. The mask requirements are a barrier to going in too. It's rough enough going to Costco with a mask let alone working all day with one on.
I think there are multiple dimensions to business travel. Here are just some I can think of...(but not exhaustive)
One is for those that travel for sales
Another is those that travel for consulting engagements
Another is for events
Another is for internal events.
We need all of these back.
I know for my company #3 & 4 are off the table for at least until well into the Fall if not through the end of the year. (there are always exceptions, but as an example I participate in face to face training and we got told to cancel through the end of the year).
#1 & #2 will happen if our customers want us to come in, as of now we do have a few engagements happening across both of these categories, but it is highly limited and really we are limiting who is traveling. Meaning a meeting that used to have 3-4 people travel in is having nobody travel but local folks are doing it with some webex/zoom attendees to augment. (I will also call out that our customers are doing the exact same thing, ie some in-person and others remote.)
Yes, travel will snap back in some #'s, because really they can only go up from where we are now.
I do not see it happening as fast as others, sorry, I will disagree with others on the widespread of 1-4 happening back to normal anytime soon.
Heck today our CEO and President said we will continue to be largely remote well into 2021.