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x1234
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Tue Jun 02, 2020 12:16 am

Will we see post-Corona a risky route like SFO-MNL? I read a few months back UA was possibly interested in it. I know they say the Philippines is low yielding but there is substantial tech and BPO traffic on both sides.
 
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KLMatSJC
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Tue Jun 02, 2020 12:25 am

x1234 wrote:
Will we see post-Corona a risky route like SFO-MNL?

Eventually? Maybe. Anytime soon? Not a chance.
A318/19/20/21/21N A332/3 A343/5 A388 B712 B722 B732/3/4/7/8/9/9ER B744/4M B752/3 B762ER/3/3ER/4ER B772/E/L/W B788 CRJ2/7/9 Q400 EMB-120 ERJ-135/140/145/145XR/175 DC-10-10 MD-82/83/88/90

Long Live the Tulip, Cactus, and Redwood
 
KFTG
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Tue Jun 02, 2020 12:43 am

Post-Corona?
 
Okcflyer
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Tue Jun 02, 2020 1:53 am

What are your (everyone) thoughts on the 76L fleet? I’m thinking it’ll stay in current config. The intended TATL routes (London, Geneva) don’t appear to be the part of the market that’s going to be heavily effected by reduced front seat traffic.

They’re ideal to mix in on EWR-LAX/SFO. With the PW757’s out, these are likely to eventually need more J seats cost effectively, and the 76L should have the lowest cost per J seat of the fleet (likely less than 16J 757).

Your thoughts?
 
ILikeTrains
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Tue Jun 02, 2020 1:57 am

They are late-90s build planes, so a good amount of life left. They have brand new cabins, and they are cheap to fly. I wouldn’t doubt them sticking till end of decade.
 
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calpsafltskeds
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Tue Jun 02, 2020 1:54 pm

The 76L is more premium heavy than the 752PW units with 64% more F seats and 15 fewer E+/Y seats (76L has 22 PP seats). I could see some use on Transcons, but the majority of use for the 76L would seems to be for LHR. If there is a demand drop TATL on LHR/other premium routes, maybe shifting a few of the 17 76Ls to Transcon could make sense and possibly increase utilization. Such a change could mean fewer 78X flights Transcon.
If N674UA gets Polaris, UA should consider changing the configuration from the planned 76L to the 30J configuration.

UA is playing it smart by not committing to removal of 767s as their ownership cost should be low to keep them parked and resale value is negligible. As for the 764 fleet, parked is fine. The 764 fleet could become a non-Polaris Transcon/Hawaii aircraft, get Polaris or potential sold to someone like FedEx as a freighter conversion to replace their 40 year old MD10-10s.

Depending on lease terms, I'd expect 772GE N77014 has the lease terminated instead of receiving Polaris. UA has only 3 other 772 leases and all are already in Polaris configuration.

Due to fairly easy conversion of the remaining ITPE 772PW units to domestic units, it would make sense for these three 2001 units to be parked for a while, then converted to domestic for longer Hawaii flights and retirement for a total of 4 1995/96 build 772A units.
 
codc10
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Tue Jun 02, 2020 2:48 pm

calpsafltskeds wrote:
The 76L is more premium heavy than the 752PW units with 64% more F seats and 15 fewer E+/Y seats (76L has 22 PP seats). I could see some use on Transcons, but the majority of use for the 76L would seems to be for LHR. If there is a demand drop TATL on LHR/other premium routes, maybe shifting a few of the 17 76Ls to Transcon could make sense and possibly increase utilization. Such a change could mean fewer 78X flights Transcon.
If N674UA gets Polaris, UA should consider changing the configuration from the planned 76L to the 30J configuration.


Don't quote me on this, but I would not be surprised if a lower J + PE LOPA is being studied if TATL premium demand stays in the tank and meaningful recovery is not predicted for more than a year. Something like 27J/18W/39Y+/138Y. I think it would make sense to reconfigure instead of flying around an airplane intended for a market which no longer exists.
 
strfyr51
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Tue Jun 02, 2020 7:32 pm

codc10 wrote:
CALTECH wrote:
strfyr51 wrote:
you could be right however? I suspect that you're wrong. the 737-700's and maybe non ETOPS 737's might be leaving if any are. the A319;s all have the range to fly conus to HNL and all over the Americas. North to south. they can be the backbone of the returning passenger traffic domestically until we need larger airplanes on a daily basis.


All 737s are ETOPS.
No A-319/320 are ETOPS.

airmec7 wrote:
All 737’s are ETOPS and no 319 is over water certified. Only a small handful of 320 are over water certified.


Do not see any Airbus aircraft ETOPS certified.
All 737s are ETOPS as you stated.


Some 320s have rafts for EOW operations in the Caribbean but no ETOPS.

It's not like the A319's couldn't be certified for ETOPS. I don't think right now that any airline in the USA has ETOPS certified A319's.. But? I do not doubt it could be done, As the airplane could make it to Europe from the USA in off peak operations. And US east coast to Alaska. I have no idea who might do it though the A319-132's United bought from China Eastern have the power and range to BE ETOPS airplanes. but I doubt United would do it with the sheer number of ETOPS 737's they have already especially with the -9's waiting in the wings to return to service or to be delivered. I think that there might be a real Fire Sale happening when Boeing begins to deliver those MAX airplanes as many have already bowed out on their deliveries..
 
N649DL
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Tue Jun 02, 2020 9:29 pm

codc10 wrote:
calpsafltskeds wrote:
The 76L is more premium heavy than the 752PW units with 64% more F seats and 15 fewer E+/Y seats (76L has 22 PP seats). I could see some use on Transcons, but the majority of use for the 76L would seems to be for LHR. If there is a demand drop TATL on LHR/other premium routes, maybe shifting a few of the 17 76Ls to Transcon could make sense and possibly increase utilization. Such a change could mean fewer 78X flights Transcon.
If N674UA gets Polaris, UA should consider changing the configuration from the planned 76L to the 30J configuration.


Don't quote me on this, but I would not be surprised if a lower J + PE LOPA is being studied if TATL premium demand stays in the tank and meaningful recovery is not predicted for more than a year. Something like 27J/18W/39Y+/138Y. I think it would make sense to reconfigure instead of flying around an airplane intended for a market which no longer exists.


IIRC, I thought they had plans to dump a handful of the 763ERs that never got Polaris conversions (a few ex-3 class variants even got the old sCO BF seat with completely new Y interiors installed but have no winglets). Perhaps now UA changed their mind and are keeping all the 763s variants around for a while?

Some 320s have rafts for EOW operations in the Caribbean but no ETOPS.[/quote]
It's not like the A319's couldn't be certified for ETOPS. I don't think right now that any airline in the USA has ETOPS certified A319's.. But? I do not doubt it could be done, As the airplane could make it to Europe from the USA in off peak operations. And US east coast to Alaska. I have no idea who might do it though the A319-132's United bought from China Eastern have the power and range to BE ETOPS airplanes. but I doubt United would do it with the sheer number of ETOPS 737's they have already especially with the -9's waiting in the wings to return to service or to be delivered. I think that there might be a real Fire Sale happening when Boeing begins to deliver those MAX airplanes as many have already bowed out on their deliveries..[/quote]

Air Canada has been doing this for years with flying the A319 on St. John's (and perhaps YHZ) to LHR. I'll bet AA could try something like this as they tried some long hauls with their new 319 on DFW to South America like BOG, IIRC. I think their new L-AA 319 have some form of ETOPS, definitely not the ex-US ones though.
Last edited by N649DL on Tue Jun 02, 2020 9:38 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
codc10
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Tue Jun 02, 2020 9:35 pm

N649DL wrote:
codc10 wrote:
calpsafltskeds wrote:
The 76L is more premium heavy than the 752PW units with 64% more F seats and 15 fewer E+/Y seats (76L has 22 PP seats). I could see some use on Transcons, but the majority of use for the 76L would seems to be for LHR. If there is a demand drop TATL on LHR/other premium routes, maybe shifting a few of the 17 76Ls to Transcon could make sense and possibly increase utilization. Such a change could mean fewer 78X flights Transcon.
If N674UA gets Polaris, UA should consider changing the configuration from the planned 76L to the 30J configuration.


Don't quote me on this, but I would not be surprised if a lower J + PE LOPA is being studied if TATL premium demand stays in the tank and meaningful recovery is not predicted for more than a year. Something like 27J/18W/39Y+/138Y. I think it would make sense to reconfigure instead of flying around an airplane intended for a market which no longer exists.


IIRC, I thought they had plans to dump a handful of the 763ERs that never got Polaris conversions (a few ex-3 class variants even got the old sCO BF seat with completely new Y interiors installed but have no winglets). Perhaps now UA changed their mind and are keeping all the 763s variants around for a while?


With regard to a configuration change, I could see some of the 76L fleet going to a smaller J cabin if LHR/ZRH/GVA/FRA premium demand projects to be impaired for an extended (multiyear) period.

Scott Kirby has said they have no plans to retire any fleets at the moment, and would prefer to keep airplanes in long-term storage to provide the optionality to add capacity if demand returns. Eventually, some decisions will have to be made, but for now, it appears all but the 28J 752s (75K, one of which just hit its 31st anniversary of delivery) will remain "technically" in the fleet, albeit parked, for now.
 
jayunited
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Tue Jun 02, 2020 10:49 pm

codc10 wrote:
With regard to a configuration change, I could see some of the 76L fleet going to a smaller J cabin if LHR/ZRH/GVA/FRA premium demand projects to be impaired for an extended (multiyear) period.

Scott Kirby has said they have no plans to retire any fleets at the moment, and would prefer to keep airplanes in long-term storage to provide the optionality to add capacity if demand returns. Eventually, some decisions will have to be made, but for now, it appears all but the 28J 752s (75K, one of which just hit its 31st anniversary of delivery) will remain "technically" in the fleet, albeit parked, for now.


I think you are correct UA will take a wait and see approach. I think premium demand will remain surpressed until there is an effective therapeutic and/or a vaccine. The question is can United wait that long, can we hold out long enough to get a clear picture of how the recovery, or will our financial position force UA to act sooner than what Kirby would like?
 
FR24Virus
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Wed Jun 03, 2020 12:15 am

calpsafltskeds wrote:
788:
N26910 sked to enter HKG Polaris /PP mod 2726/31May, guess at RTS 7/16/20
N28912 sked to enter HKG Polaris/PP mod 2728/31May, guess at RTS 7/16/20
All 787 previous Polaris mods done at XMN - will there be a learning curve at HKG?


Yea, they both end up in XMN. Those cargo flights are sure confusing but at least they are getting Polaris.
 
ordbosewr
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Wed Jun 03, 2020 1:41 pm

jayunited wrote:
codc10 wrote:
With regard to a configuration change, I could see some of the 76L fleet going to a smaller J cabin if LHR/ZRH/GVA/FRA premium demand projects to be impaired for an extended (multiyear) period.

Scott Kirby has said they have no plans to retire any fleets at the moment, and would prefer to keep airplanes in long-term storage to provide the optionality to add capacity if demand returns. Eventually, some decisions will have to be made, but for now, it appears all but the 28J 752s (75K, one of which just hit its 31st anniversary of delivery) will remain "technically" in the fleet, albeit parked, for now.


I think you are correct UA will take a wait and see approach. I think premium demand will remain surpressed until there is an effective therapeutic and/or a vaccine. The question is can United wait that long, can we hold out long enough to get a clear picture of how the recovery, or will our financial position force UA to act sooner than what Kirby would like?


I think premium demand will be depressed for some time. I work at a fortune 500 company and I do not see any major plans to large scale travel by our employees. We have a large number of folks who typically travel every week and so far the majority of them are still working from home (our customers do not want them on-site yet either). That is going to be the largest hurdle to getting premium demand back.

I think it is smart position to say that no decision is needed unless that decision can directly attribute to significant cost reductions. For example, what DL did to retire all 777's is tangible to reduce complexity in the company.
If UA feels they won't retire ALL of the same fleet type is there really any reason to make that decision now? Not really, if UA is going to keep any sub-fleet then they should wait to make any decision.
I do wonder, what the costs are for storage? I now the largest cost is any lease or payments for the aircraft themselves, if present, but I wonder if the cost of putting in storage, maintaining them in storage and then returning to service is significant in the decisions or is it a rounding error in the decision process?.
 
jayunited
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Wed Jun 03, 2020 3:30 pm

ordbosewr wrote:

I think it is smart position to say that no decision is needed unless that decision can directly attribute to significant cost reductions. For example, what DL did to retire all 777's is tangible to reduce complexity in the company.
If UA feels they won't retire ALL of the same fleet type is there really any reason to make that decision now? Not really, if UA is going to keep any sub-fleet then they should wait to make any decision.
I do wonder, what the costs are for storage? I now the largest cost is any lease or payments for the aircraft themselves, if present, but I wonder if the cost of putting in storage, maintaining them in storage and then returning to service is significant in the decisions or is it a rounding error in the decision process?.



We are not talking about retiring any particular fleet type we are talking about reducing the number of premium seats on the 76L subfleet.

As I stated I agree premium or business travel will not return until there is an effective therapeutic and/or a vaccine. The question or concern raised was was does UA have to many premium seats on our premium heavy 76Ls and quite frankly across our entire widebody fleet? Without having a clear picture of how and when business travel will recover an argument could be made in favor of removing some premium seats and adding more seats in coach. However the wait and see approach also has its merits because UA does not have a clear picture. Removing business class seats and adding coach seats may seem like a no brainer now, but is it the right decision long term? Again in my opinion it all comes down to finances, does UA have the liquidity to wait for corporate travel to resume? Looking at leisure markets the recovery has begun, however business or corporate travel is still on hold and probably will remain on hold until we have an effective vaccine.

The best example I can think of is UA's pre-Covid EWR-LHR route. Pre-COVID UA made it clear their focus on this route was premium traffic with 5x daily flights UA had 230 lie flat Polaris seats in the air daily on our EWR-LHR route. Before UA switched this route over to all 76Ls we operated 4x daily 763s and 1x daily 764 for a total of 937 seats in coach. After the switch was made UA daily overall coach availability drop down to 605 seats on 5x daily 76Ls. However we went from 159 business class seats to 230 lie flat Polaris seats. In a post COVID world what Kirby and his team have to figure out is should UA reverse coarse? Should UA now (meaning in 2021) target leisure travelers in this market? Should UA begin increasing the number of seats in coach to prepare for when Europe is fully reopen (which should be in time for the IATA summer 2021 season), or should UA stay the course and wait for a clearer picture on corporate travel recovery?

The conundrum is this once UA pulls business class seats off the aircraft they will not put them back on should corporate travel recover at a faster than expected rate. Whatever decision UA makes, whichever way they decide to go UA is stuck with that decision until a all new Polaris business class seat debuts, which probably won't happened in my opinion until 2030 at the earliest. I don't see UA pulling business class seats off now and replacing them with additional coach seats only to reverse course put the business class seats back on in 2-4 years time should corporate travel recover more robustly than we think.

My opinion is UA should wait and see but do we have enough liquidity to take the wait and see approach. Neither decision is not without risk, either decision could end up costing UA a lot of money. Until there is a vaccine or a therapeutic any decision is more like a shot in the dark without night vision goggles.
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Wed Jun 03, 2020 3:40 pm

I talked with my friend who is a Bosch Executive and he says everyone within the company is trying to get traveling ASAP. He also said they, along with many other companies will not be waiting for a vaccine before starting to travel. Additionally, they are planning for a large conference in Germany in the Fall, in which they will all need to fly to.
 
FlyHossD
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Wed Jun 03, 2020 3:44 pm

ordbosewr wrote:

I think premium demand will be depressed for some time. I work at a fortune 500 company and I do not see any major plans to large scale travel by our employees. We have a large number of folks who typically travel every week and so far the majority of them are still working from home (our customers do not want them on-site yet either).


We've already resumed travel at our family-owned company, to the surprise of some customers. It's also been to our advantage as we were awarded a contract just yesterday; it was one that we really hadn't expected.

My point is that the companies that stay home are at risk of losing work and market share when their competitors get moving again first. Many times, there's no substitute for being there.
My statements do not represent my former employer or my current employer and are my opinions only.
 
dmstorm22
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Wed Jun 03, 2020 3:52 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
I talked with my friend who is a Bosch Executive and he says everyone within the company is trying to get traveling ASAP. He also said they, along with many other companies will not be waiting for a vaccine before starting to travel. Additionally, they are planning for a large conference in Germany in the Fall, in which they will all need to fly to.


I can see some hesitancy but just as companies halted travel in quick succession, they will do the same in getting back to travel.

For sales oriented areas first-mover will push some.

Just my $0.02, hard to predict when, but I do think it is when not if, taking an 18-month view.

There are industries though that may see how productivity has managed through this period and cuts travel for certain business areas ongoing, or at least looks to restrict it.
 
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calpsafltskeds
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Wed Jun 03, 2020 4:06 pm

I agree with wait and see. Why spend more money now for an unknown?

UA has plenty of WB aircraft to re-deploy when travel returns and many will remain parked for a while. UA has 14 2 class (30J), 17 76L (46J) and 7 two-class non-Polaris units.

UA has a unique (hopefully temporary) fleet planning opportunity to pull from abundant, varied resources to match demand.

With cash being tight, UA should pull 763s out of storage to match the demand (possibly including non-Polaris units flying Transcon or Hawaii). If demand means fewer J seats and more Y seats, then leave most of the 76Ls parked.

One would think the reduction in services will be across the board for other airlines and that would include J services. Maybe UA can gain some J passengers if BA and others reduce premium seats. I doubt UA will not fly LHR slot, so lower seat sizes may make sense, even if J demand is reduced.
Regarding LHR, was UA turning away Y customers on the 76L? - if so then a mix of 30J and 46J units might do the trick.

If UA wants to spend more reconfiguration money, then the 763 fleet could be converted to 1.) all 30J, 2.) 27J +PP, 3.) something else OR 4.) a mix of these options. Note, some of these options include expensive STCs.
If the remaining non-Polaris 763s new Polaris seats have not been purchased, UA could reduce 76L J seats to at least partially provision those 7 units.
 
DC8FanJet
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Wed Jun 03, 2020 4:07 pm

N649DL wrote:
codc10 wrote:
calpsafltskeds wrote:
The 76L is more premium heavy than the 752PW units with 64% more F seats and 15 fewer E+/Y seats (76L has 22 PP seats). I could see some use on Transcons, but the majority of use for the 76L would seems to be for LHR. If there is a demand drop TATL on LHR/other premium routes, maybe shifting a few of the 17 76Ls to Transcon could make sense and possibly increase utilization. Such a change could mean fewer 78X flights Transcon.
If N674UA gets Polaris, UA should consider changing the configuration from the planned 76L to the 30J configuration.



IIRC, I thought they had plans to dump a handful of the 763ERs that never got Polaris conversions (a few ex-3 class variants even got the old sCO BF seat with completely new Y interiors installed but have no winglets). Perhaps now UA changed their mind and are keeping all the 763s variants around for a while?

All United 763s have winglets installed, regardless of seating configuration
 
tphuang
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Wed Jun 03, 2020 4:09 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
I talked with my friend who is a Bosch Executive and he says everyone within the company is trying to get traveling ASAP. He also said they, along with many other companies will not be waiting for a vaccine before starting to travel. Additionally, they are planning for a large conference in Germany in the Fall, in which they will all need to fly to.


wonderful, but the fact is business travel is still basically 0 at this point. That's according to all the airlines.

Hard to have business travel when so many white collar jobs are still working from home. I don't plan to be back in the office this year or even longer than that. And with a slow economy, companies will severely cut back corporate travel even if there is vaccine around.

They won't be able to fly to a large conference in Germany if Schengen zone still has a 14 day quarantine period at that time.
 
NJHoboken
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Wed Jun 03, 2020 5:36 pm

I am a GS flyer and Managing Director at an NYC investment bank. I believe that premium travel will rebound faster than people expect. While my aggregate level of flying will go down, my firm has historically been tight on those that can fly premium (usually Director or higher level). Our initial discussions are that we may open up premium flying to a broader base of employees in an effort to provide for distancing. Our aggregate travel spend will still come down, but the composition may change.
 
GmoneyCO
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Wed Jun 03, 2020 6:05 pm

I'm a 1K flyer with a global consulting firm and expect that once business travel begins to rebound it will come back pretty quickly. I expect the amount of travel that the average consultant does to go down, especially at the junior levels given how effective people have been with Zoom, etc. but nothing replaces face-to-face meetings and working sessions.

Once offices begin to open back up in meaningful ways, travel will begin to resume. For offices that are open, most are limited to 10-25% of capacity with no services (e.g. no coffee) so there isn't a reason to go in unless you need to bulk print or a quiet place to work away from kids and other distractions. The mask requirements are a barrier to going in too. It's rough enough going to Costco with a mask let alone working all day with one on.

If we have an effective treatment protocol and meaningful stats on where we are with working towards a large percentage of the population having some level of antibody protection, we may see things open up much more broadly this fall otherwise its likely going to be Spring 2021.
 
N649DL
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Wed Jun 03, 2020 6:10 pm

tphuang wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
I talked with my friend who is a Bosch Executive and he says everyone within the company is trying to get traveling ASAP. He also said they, along with many other companies will not be waiting for a vaccine before starting to travel. Additionally, they are planning for a large conference in Germany in the Fall, in which they will all need to fly to.


wonderful, but the fact is business travel is still basically 0 at this point. That's according to all the airlines.

Hard to have business travel when so many white collar jobs are still working from home. I don't plan to be back in the office this year or even longer than that. And with a slow economy, companies will severely cut back corporate travel even if there is vaccine around.

They won't be able to fly to a large conference in Germany if Schengen zone still has a 14 day quarantine period at that time.


There was however a time where UA was in a hurry to start dumping 3-class interiors as quickly as possible and matched a few 763 frames into 2-class configuration. I found a trip report on youtube from GRU-IAD and it was surprising to see that they didn't install winglets on IIRC, N642UA yet but the interiors were clearly brand new. This was around 2017 I want to say.
 
codc10
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Wed Jun 03, 2020 6:20 pm

N649DL wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
I talked with my friend who is a Bosch Executive and he says everyone within the company is trying to get traveling ASAP. He also said they, along with many other companies will not be waiting for a vaccine before starting to travel. Additionally, they are planning for a large conference in Germany in the Fall, in which they will all need to fly to.


wonderful, but the fact is business travel is still basically 0 at this point. That's according to all the airlines.

Hard to have business travel when so many white collar jobs are still working from home. I don't plan to be back in the office this year or even longer than that. And with a slow economy, companies will severely cut back corporate travel even if there is vaccine around.

They won't be able to fly to a large conference in Germany if Schengen zone still has a 14 day quarantine period at that time.


There was however a time where UA was in a hurry to start dumping 3-class interiors as quickly as possible and matched a few 763 frames into 2-class configuration. I found a trip report on youtube from GRU-IAD and it was surprising to see that they didn't install winglets on IIRC, N642UA yet but the interiors were clearly brand new. This was around 2017 I want to say.


Cabin mods on the 767s were carried out in connection with heavy (C and higher) checks, which included adding winglets. The 2012-2015 round of 767 mods, from domestic and some 3-cabin configuration to 2-cabin international (76C, former 76E) were the first in the UA 767 fleet to add winglets. I am not aware of any 767-300ERs which had post-merger interiors (76C/E or Polaris 76A/76L) that did not get the winglet mod at the same time.
 
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LAXintl
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Wed Jun 03, 2020 8:14 pm

Some notes from todays townhall with Kirby and Hart

> Traffic more than 90% down still. Carried about 40,000 last few days, compared to 500,000 normal this time of year
> Must think about the future which means prepare for smaller airline esp after Oct.1
> Will seek to raise more capital to carry through current challenges
> Unlikely to see normalcy for several years, likely dependent on a vaccine.
> Must plan for worst and hope for best. We could have a few setbacks on road to recovery.
> Doing all possible to reduce down variable cost
> This will mean shared sacrifices by all. In talks with all unions to see if creative solutions can be found
> Paying significant cash severance "not something we can do in this environment"
> Will extend COLAs, but wont save people if there are furloughs/involuntary separations
> May sked down 88%, but revenue down 94%
> Plan July sked to be down 75%
> Will build out hub banks at mid continental airports from current 2 to 4 and eventually 5 banks later in the year to maximize connectivity
> Seeing some uptick domestically, but worried about international. No China access, 14-day UK quarantine etc.
> Cargo carrying the day internationally. Limited intl ops likely more profitable today than whats being flown domestically
> Visiting friends/family traffic likely come back first, but leisure to places like Disney take some time and even then be restricted.
> Small glimmers of biz traffic - sales/consultants, but full corp travel and things like large events some time away and likely must wait for a vaccine
> Safety onboard not about distancing as it cant be done. Its about face mask, air filtering, cleaning, etc.
> Working with govt on best way to effectively implement pax temperature screening at the airport.
> Key will be creating safe environment which makes the customer feel comfortable and willing to venture back to air travel
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
ordbosewr
Posts: 605
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2011 8:30 pm

Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Thu Jun 04, 2020 12:05 am

GmoneyCO wrote:
I'm a 1K flyer with a global consulting firm and expect that once business travel begins to rebound it will come back pretty quickly. I expect the amount of travel that the average consultant does to go down, especially at the junior levels given how effective people have been with Zoom, etc. but nothing replaces face-to-face meetings and working sessions.

Once offices begin to open back up in meaningful ways, travel will begin to resume. For offices that are open, most are limited to 10-25% of capacity with no services (e.g. no coffee) so there isn't a reason to go in unless you need to bulk print or a quiet place to work away from kids and other distractions. The mask requirements are a barrier to going in too. It's rough enough going to Costco with a mask let alone working all day with one on.


I think there are multiple dimensions to business travel. Here are just some I can think of...(but not exhaustive)
One is for those that travel for sales
Another is those that travel for consulting engagements
Another is for events
Another is for internal events.
We need all of these back.

I know for my company #3 & 4 are off the table for at least until well into the Fall if not through the end of the year. (there are always exceptions, but as an example I participate in face to face training and we got told to cancel through the end of the year).
#1 & #2 will happen if our customers want us to come in, as of now we do have a few engagements happening across both of these categories, but it is highly limited and really we are limiting who is traveling. Meaning a meeting that used to have 3-4 people travel in is having nobody travel but local folks are doing it with some webex/zoom attendees to augment. (I will also call out that our customers are doing the exact same thing, ie some in-person and others remote.)

Yes, travel will snap back in some #'s, because really they can only go up from where we are now.
I do not see it happening as fast as others, sorry, I will disagree with others on the widespread of 1-4 happening back to normal anytime soon.
Heck today our CEO and President said we will continue to be largely remote well into 2021.
 
FR24Virus
Posts: 5
Joined: Wed Apr 01, 2020 5:00 am

Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Thu Jun 04, 2020 2:03 pm

N649DL wrote:
There was however a time where UA was in a hurry to start dumping 3-class interiors as quickly as possible and matched a few 763 frames into 2-class configuration. I found a trip report on youtube from GRU-IAD and it was surprising to see that they didn't install winglets on IIRC, N642UA yet but the interiors were clearly brand new. This was around 2017 I want to say.


This is true. N642UA get her Winglets in 2018 during Polaris.
https://www.jetphotos.com/photo/8940634
https://www.jetphotos.com/photo/9060731
 
codc10
Posts: 2831
Joined: Sat Jul 08, 2000 7:18 am

Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Thu Jun 04, 2020 2:09 pm

FR24Virus wrote:
N649DL wrote:
There was however a time where UA was in a hurry to start dumping 3-class interiors as quickly as possible and matched a few 763 frames into 2-class configuration. I found a trip report on youtube from GRU-IAD and it was surprising to see that they didn't install winglets on IIRC, N642UA yet but the interiors were clearly brand new. This was around 2017 I want to say.


This is true. N642UA get her Winglets in 2018 during Polaris.
https://www.jetphotos.com/photo/8940634
https://www.jetphotos.com/photo/9060731


N642UA went from 3-cabin 67I to 30J Polaris 76A in mid-2018, and the mod included winglets (the last UA 767 to get them). It wasn't in an interim 30J BE Diamond 76C without winglets.
 
LAXdude1023
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Thu Jun 04, 2020 9:56 pm

Here are some interesting stats. Below are numbers of total job losses between April 19 and April 20 by metro area. The percentage represents the percent of jobs lost of the total in that time frame. So the 8.5% next to Houston means Greater Houston lost 8.5% of the jobs it had in April 2019 between then and April 2020:

-265,700 Houston -8.5%
-301,000 Washington -9.0%
-150,700 Denver -9.9%
-123,400 San Jose -10.8%
-610,900 Chicago -12.9%
-349,700 San Francisco -14.2%
-916,200 Los Angeles -14.7%
-1,949,600 New York -19.6%

Im sure a huge part of CA and NY were the stay at home orders and how hard COVID hit NYC.
FOR THE LOVE OF GOD BRING BACK THE PAYWALL!!!!
 
FSDan
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Thu Jun 04, 2020 10:44 pm

LAXdude1023 wrote:
Here are some interesting stats. Below are numbers of total job losses between April 19 and April 20 by metro area. The percentage represents the percent of jobs lost of the total in that time frame. So the 8.5% next to Houston means Greater Houston lost 8.5% of the jobs it had in April 2019 between then and April 2020:

-265,700 Houston -8.5%
-301,000 Washington -9.0%
-150,700 Denver -9.9%
-123,400 San Jose -10.8%
-610,900 Chicago -12.9%
-349,700 San Francisco -14.2%
-916,200 Los Angeles -14.7%
-1,949,600 New York -19.6%

Im sure a huge part of CA and NY were the stay at home orders and how hard COVID hit NYC.


Surprising Houston hasn't been hit harder given the slump in the oil industry... I know Houston has plenty more to its economy than just oil, but still...
This is my signature until I think of a better one.
 
tphuang
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Thu Jun 04, 2020 10:55 pm

Seems like they are aiming to be 70% of their pre-COVID size. Just not sure if that's going to be reached next summer, end of next year or 2022.
 
airplanedriver6
Posts: 43
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Thu Jun 04, 2020 11:01 pm

tphuang wrote:
Seems like they are aiming to be 70% of their pre-COVID size.

I think "aiming" is the slightly incorrect word.

They are contingency planning for 30% smaller which will let them hit any target between 100% and 70% of pre-COVID. Since NOBODY knows what travel demand will be the fall, and particularly next summer, the entire strategy is based on flexibility. The airline's fleet and staffing needs are determined by the peak season and for a major airline in the USA that means the summer months.
Last edited by airplanedriver6 on Thu Jun 04, 2020 11:03 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
Pinto
Posts: 48
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Thu Jun 04, 2020 11:02 pm

I heard rumor of UA restating HKG-SIN as a passenger flight? Is this still being planned or will they go for direct SFO-SIN?
 
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UPlog
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Thu Jun 04, 2020 11:05 pm

Pinto wrote:
I heard rumor of UA restating HKG-SIN as a passenger flight? Is this still being planned or will they go for direct SFO-SIN?


See post #2007

Announced last week.
I fly your boxes
 
ericm2031
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Thu Jun 04, 2020 11:13 pm

Interesting that AA is flying 55% pre-COVID for July and UA is only going to do 25%...quite a big difference. Will be interesting to see the numbers after the fact.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Thu Jun 04, 2020 11:18 pm

ericm2031 wrote:
Interesting that AA is flying 55% pre-COVID for July and UA is only going to do 25%...quite a big difference. Will be interesting to see the numbers after the fact.


UA bumping up domestic to 30% now, numbers must be coming back quicker than they anticipated
Image

"United is nearly doubling Washington DC IAD flights in July to 124 per day up from 67 in June and going from 60 to 74 destinations"
https://twitter.com/davidshepardson/sta ... 25767?s=20
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
tphuang
Posts: 5043
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Thu Jun 04, 2020 11:35 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
ericm2031 wrote:
Interesting that AA is flying 55% pre-COVID for July and UA is only going to do 25%...quite a big difference. Will be interesting to see the numbers after the fact.


UA bumping up domestic to 30% now, numbers must be coming back quicker than they anticipated
Image

"United is nearly doubling Washington DC IAD flights in July to 124 per day up from 67 in June and going from 60 to 74 destinations"
https://twitter.com/davidshepardson/sta ... 25767?s=20

I think the 25% is referring to system wide capacity. Makes sense for domestic to be higher than that.
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Thu Jun 04, 2020 11:43 pm

Chicago O’Hare: 260 flights to 133 destinations

Denver: 206 flights to 120 destinations

Houston Intercontinental: 210 flights to 112 destinations

Los Angeles: 43 flights to 26 destinations

Newark: 115 flights to 61 destinations

San Francisco: 116 flights to 65 destinations

Washington Dulles: 124 flights to 74 destinations
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Thu Jun 04, 2020 11:45 pm

tphuang wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
ericm2031 wrote:
Interesting that AA is flying 55% pre-COVID for July and UA is only going to do 25%...quite a big difference. Will be interesting to see the numbers after the fact.


UA bumping up domestic to 30% now, numbers must be coming back quicker than they anticipated
Image

"United is nearly doubling Washington DC IAD flights in July to 124 per day up from 67 in June and going from 60 to 74 destinations"
https://twitter.com/davidshepardson/sta ... 25767?s=20

I think the 25% is referring to system wide capacity. Makes sense for domestic to be higher than that.


The reports I've read have said that 30% is an increase from 25%, I could be wrong though
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
tphuang
Posts: 5043
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Thu Jun 04, 2020 11:59 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

UA bumping up domestic to 30% now, numbers must be coming back quicker than they anticipated
Image

"United is nearly doubling Washington DC IAD flights in July to 124 per day up from 67 in June and going from 60 to 74 destinations"
https://twitter.com/davidshepardson/sta ... 25767?s=20

I think the 25% is referring to system wide capacity. Makes sense for domestic to be higher than that.


The reports I've read have said that 30% is an increase from 25%, I could be wrong though


You are probably right.

If I had to guess, some of the increases here like the EWR to 115 fights, is a response to competitive pressure from LCCs. Seeing competitors aggressively taking aggressive capacity increases probably forced their hand a little bit here. Would be interesting to see how they recover over next year, I still anticipate them to be 35% smaller than pre-COVID size next summer.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Fri Jun 05, 2020 12:05 am

tphuang wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
tphuang wrote:
I think the 25% is referring to system wide capacity. Makes sense for domestic to be higher than that.


The reports I've read have said that 30% is an increase from 25%, I could be wrong though


You are probably right.

If I had to guess, some of the increases here like the EWR to 115 fights, is a response to competitive pressure from LCCs. Seeing competitors aggressively taking aggressive capacity increases probably forced their hand a little bit here. Would be interesting to see how they recover over next year, I still anticipate them to be 35% smaller than pre-COVID size next summer.


2020 Peak Departures/2019 Peak Departures
IAD 124/266-46.6%
ORD 260/637-40.8%
DEN 206/504-40.9%
EWR 115/432-26.6%
SFO 116/332-34.9%
LAX 43/160-26.9%
IAH 210/533-39.4%

Using FSDan's schedule from S19
viewtopic.php?t=1420611

I believe they are also keeping the schedules low for Tuesdays & Saturdays, which would likely bring down the percentages
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
United1
Posts: 4153
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Fri Jun 05, 2020 12:20 am

Nicknuzzii wrote:
Chicago O’Hare: 260 flights to 133 destinations

Denver: 206 flights to 120 destinations

Houston Intercontinental: 210 flights to 112 destinations

Los Angeles: 43 flights to 26 destinations

Newark: 115 flights to 61 destinations

San Francisco: 116 flights to 65 destinations

Washington Dulles: 124 flights to 74 destinations


A rough estimation of percent of "normal" flights.
ORD 45%
DEN 45%
IAH 40%
LAX 30%
EWR 30%
SFO 40%
IAD 50%
I know the voices in my head aren't real but sometimes their ideas are just awesome!!!
 
avi8
Posts: 1159
Joined: Sun Jun 26, 2011 1:36 am

Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Fri Jun 05, 2020 12:22 am

So ORD, DEN and IAH are the main hubs during this crisis. Makes a lot of sense.
avi8
 
airzona11
Posts: 1741
Joined: Wed Dec 17, 2014 5:44 am

Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Fri Jun 05, 2020 12:28 am

jayunited wrote:
codc10 wrote:
With regard to a configuration change, I could see some of the 76L fleet going to a smaller J cabin if LHR/ZRH/GVA/FRA premium demand projects to be impaired for an extended (multiyear) period.

Scott Kirby has said they have no plans to retire any fleets at the moment, and would prefer to keep airplanes in long-term storage to provide the optionality to add capacity if demand returns. Eventually, some decisions will have to be made, but for now, it appears all but the 28J 752s (75K, one of which just hit its 31st anniversary of delivery) will remain "technically" in the fleet, albeit parked, for now.


I think you are correct UA will take a wait and see approach. I think premium demand will remain surpressed until there is an effective therapeutic and/or a vaccine. The question is can United wait that long, can we hold out long enough to get a clear picture of how the recovery, or will our financial position force UA to act sooner than what Kirby would like?


I wonder though if premium demand would not come back before Y demand? Business travel is what pays the bills and once that opens up more, those fliers are going to go. The masses are going to be more impacted by the depressed economy, unemployment etc. Add to that decreased flights and less competition, Y fares are going to be higher than normal, which makes the difference between J/PY and Y less, maybe more buy ups. Granted this is all if the economies stay open and come back up quicker, but structurally, the housing market did not crash like past recessions, financial markets did not crash, this is for the most part lockdown induced. The near term era is not going to be one of cheap fares.
 
ericm2031
Posts: 1379
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Fri Jun 05, 2020 12:29 am

Great to see UA increasing now. It seemed like some business was being lost to others flying more robust schedules.
 
sldispatcher
Posts: 387
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Fri Jun 05, 2020 12:32 am

I think American was wise to keep all of their connectivity in place as much as possible. I'm having to fly them tomorrow instead of UAL for that very reason.

I am happy to see UAL continue to rebound. As soon as NY and CA loosen up more it should really turn things loose with filling planes.

I am hoping for a very quick rebound so none of the planned furloughs will be as severe as currently thought.
 
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janders
Moderator
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Fri Jun 05, 2020 12:34 am

Kirby only yesterday said capacity is not the problem, its demand.

https://skift.com/2020/06/04/american-a ... ectations/

He said July system would be down 75%.
"We make war that we may live in peace." -- Aristotle
 
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atcsundevil
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Fri Jun 05, 2020 2:32 am

Please be respectful with other users. This thread is normally respectful and cordial, so if replies aren't in keeping with the generally positive tone of this thread, they will be removed.

✈️ atcsundevil
 
codc10
Posts: 2831
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Fri Jun 05, 2020 2:34 am

AA is unsustainable at 25-30% of pre-COVID capacity. It can't possible generate enough revenue at that level for much longer and expect to meet its covenants. So, it has to go for broke. Fortunately, the market appears ready to begin the long road back...and the rising tide will lift all boats!
 
jayunited
Posts: 2762
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Fri Jun 05, 2020 2:52 am

ericm2031 wrote:
Interesting that AA is flying 55% pre-COVID for July and UA is only going to do 25%...quite a big difference. Will be interesting to see the numbers after the fact.



The percentage of flights flown is not important the question is how much revenue will AA generate off 55% verses UA's 30% ( UA just announced July's schedule will be around 30%).

Also United is not trying to keep up with American, United is trying to find the right balance that provides the right capacity while also generating revenue. Personally I think for July UA should be flying 30% -35%. I think anything over 35% would probably be to much capacity for UA at this particular point in time.

Lastly I can't wait to see Q2 results American has operated more flights than UA during Q2. It will be interesting to see how each airline faired during Q2 with UA flying the least number of flights DL in the middle and AA had the most flights in the air.

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