You don't know any of that to be a fact, you're simply hoping it to be true. You don't know what percentage of AA's, or UA's business for that matter, comes from elite driven high dollar revenue.
i got no stake in the game here.
Just taking a look at the challenges facing legacy airlines right now. G4, a mostly domestic airline that relies on leisure travel and flies minimally out of areas most affect by COVID, is saying they are getting basically under 40% of their regular revenue flying over 70 to 85% of their pre-COVID schedule. So for them, they are getting about 50% of their regular revenue per flight. It's 50% due to a combination a lower LF (probably 60% vs 90% regularly in peak summer month) and lower fares from having to attract price sensitive customers.
Now if you are a legacy, there is a lot of fixed cost involved. Let's say you can cut 20% of total costs and the remaining 80% is split between fixed costs and variable costs like fuel, maintenance, more salaries from more hours by front line cabin crew, landing fees, contracting costs. You will probably need to be getting 40% of a regular revenue on a flight to justify the additional flying. And now yield is down not only due to lower load factor, but also more connection itineraries, less business travel and more bargain hunters. Obviously, the more flights you add, the less likely you will reach the threshold of covering the cost of flight. That's why you see UA and DL being a lot more cautious adding back flights.
This is from LAXIntl a few days ago
"As of Wednesday, at the employee townhall event, Scott Kirby said bookings were down 92% compared to same first week in June 2019.
UA also summarised that May ended with 88% decline in bookings and 94% decline in revenue from them."
A couple of things here. Notice how the decline in revenue is greater than the decline in bookings? That means UA is still getting lower yield on itineraries than it did a year ago even with the reduced schedule.
So 2 data points here.
UA - 94% decline in revenue from bookings and 88% decline in bookings. So 6% revenue from 12% bookings. That's 50% off in revenue per booking. That could be a reflection in just having fewer international business class fares or less high yielding business travelers, but that's a tough reality facing all the legacy airlines.
G4 - 50% less cash coming in per flight than a year ago. over 60% decline in booking revenues.
Let's just put it this way, if AA is getting 25% of its regular booking right now, they would be overachieving expectations. And that still would not bring their burn rate below DL or UA got down to.