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LAXintl
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Fri Jun 05, 2020 3:03 am

jayunited wrote:
ericm2031 wrote:
The percentage of flights flown is not important the question is how much revenue will AA generate off 55% verses UA's 30% ( UA just announced July's schedule will be around 30%).


Domestic is 30%, overall is 25%
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jayunited
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Fri Jun 05, 2020 12:09 pm

LAXintl wrote:
jayunited wrote:
ericm2031 wrote:
The percentage of flights flown is not important the question is how much revenue will AA generate off 55% verses UA's 30% ( UA just announced July's schedule will be around 30%).


Domestic is 30%, overall is 25%


My apologies I read the statement UA put out and my excitement got the better of me. I'm more the type to focus on good news and I should have gotten a better understanding of what UA was actually saying before I posted.

But I still believe 30% to perhaps 35% domestically is right where UA should be for July. Comparing AA, and UA's approach to DL's approach to this crisis. DL has stated they are capping capacity at 60% while both AA and UA have taken a different approach. I'm bringing up DL because they've added flights as well because of their policy but even with that policy I don't believe DL will be flying 55% of their pre-COVID schedule domestically. UA flying 30% of our pre-COVID domestic schedule is probably right where we should be seeing that we are not capping capacity at 60%.

United is focusing on getting our daily cash burn rate down and keeping it down. Not really sure what AA is doing especially seeing their daily cash burn rate continues to be much higher than UA's.
 
jayunited
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Fri Jun 05, 2020 12:39 pm

United will not let WN pull away at DEN, our July 2020 schedule will see UA operating 206 daily departures on peak days to 120 destinations. Even though UA's focus is on revenue and not trying to be the largest carrier at DEN this has to be encouraging news for employees at DEN to see UA's committed to DEN remains just as strong as ever.

As much as I hate to do this I have to be fair. UA's July schedule will see 3 hubs operating over 200 daily flights on peak days, and 3 hubs at over 100 daily flights on peak days. However LAX's daily departures will remain incredibly low at just 43 daily departures on peak days to only 26 destinations. While I don't believe UA will de-hub LAX, it is obvious from our July schedule that at this particular point in time LAX is not a top priority for UA. While LAX's July numbers are not shocking they are a bit disappointing, but I guess SFO and DEN take priority.

https://thepointsguy.com/news/united-ai ... -schedule/
 
FSDan
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Fri Jun 05, 2020 7:11 pm

jayunited wrote:
As much as I hate to do this I have to be fair. UA's July schedule will see 3 hubs operating over 200 daily flights on peak days, and 3 hubs at over 100 daily flights on peak days. However LAX's daily departures will remain incredibly low at just 43 daily departures on peak days to only 26 destinations. While I don't believe UA will de-hub LAX, it is obvious from our July schedule that at this particular point in time LAX is not a top priority for UA. While LAX's July numbers are not shocking they are a bit disappointing, but I guess SFO and DEN take priority.


The thing about LAX for UA is that the hub served very few unique destinations. Basically just ITO, I think (since SCK seems to be cut longer term?). The majority of UA's flights from LAX pre-COVID-19 were either to other UA hubs, to Hawai'i, or to smaller Western destinations where UA is strong (BOI, ACV, SBA, ASE, COS, etc.), likely quite reliant on O&D rather than connections. With international and Hawai'i traffic severely hampered and the LA area still more locked down than the average U.S. metro area, there's not much left that's worth flying nonstop from LAX besides the other hubs.
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FlyGuy27
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Fri Jun 05, 2020 8:44 pm

Today's UA 2374 EWR - SFO was on the 76L. Other flights on a 752, 753 and 788. Interesting times for sure.

Wouldn't mind the 76L cross-country!
 
Okcflyer
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Fri Jun 05, 2020 11:57 pm

FlyGuy27 wrote:
Today's UA 2374 EWR - SFO was on the 76L. Other flights on a 752, 753 and 788. Interesting times for sure.

Wouldn't mind the 76L cross-country!


Increasing J demand?
 
B747forever
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sat Jun 06, 2020 12:34 am

jayunited wrote:
However LAX's daily departures will remain incredibly low at just 43 daily departures on peak days to only 26 destinations. While I don't believe UA will de-hub LAX, it is obvious from our July schedule that at this particular point in time LAX is not a top priority for UA. While LAX's July numbers are not shocking they are a bit disappointing, but I guess SFO and DEN take priority.

https://thepointsguy.com/news/united-ai ... -schedule/


Do you happen to have the full LAX July schedule? Interested in seeing which cities will be served.
Work Hard, Fly Right
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sat Jun 06, 2020 1:10 am

B747forever wrote:
jayunited wrote:
However LAX's daily departures will remain incredibly low at just 43 daily departures on peak days to only 26 destinations. While I don't believe UA will de-hub LAX, it is obvious from our July schedule that at this particular point in time LAX is not a top priority for UA. While LAX's July numbers are not shocking they are a bit disappointing, but I guess SFO and DEN take priority.

https://thepointsguy.com/news/united-ai ... -schedule/


Do you happen to have the full LAX July schedule? Interested in seeing which cities will be served.


Includes partner flights, schedule is for sale now on UA.com

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AmericanAir88
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sat Jun 06, 2020 2:04 am

It seems that UA has updated some schedules. Looking at some EWR routes that now have fewer flights present than a few days ago.
 
ericm2031
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sat Jun 06, 2020 2:17 am

AmericanAir88 wrote:
It seems that UA has updated some schedules. Looking at some EWR routes that now have fewer flights present than a few days ago.


If you’re talking about July, then yes. It was showing pre-COVID schedule previously...it now has the real schedule loaded.
 
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SumChristianus
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sat Jun 06, 2020 3:14 am

ericm2031 wrote:
If you’re talking about July, then yes. It was showing pre-COVID schedule previously...it now has the real schedule loaded.


It's down from the "default" or unadjusted schedule as one might call it, but in general up a bit from June in the "real" or actually now planned to be flown, schedule. Nowhere near Southwest or American yet as UA is still planning on riding this out with deeper cuts but it's an improvement over the bare than bare bones being flown now.
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redrooster3
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sat Jun 06, 2020 5:04 am

Okcflyer wrote:
FlyGuy27 wrote:
Today's UA 2374 EWR - SFO was on the 76L. Other flights on a 752, 753 and 788. Interesting times for sure.

Wouldn't mind the 76L cross-country!


Increasing J demand?


Definitely not, only 7 passengers booked in business with 4 being upgrades. It was probably a NOC request to "get the plane flying" to avoid storage protocols.

On the other hand, im seeing a few 772s popping up in DEN/IAH/ORD. Aircraft 13 left for polaris mods on March 18th and spent about 50 days in mods and came back and is doing hub-to-hub runs.
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ericm2031
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sat Jun 06, 2020 5:23 am

SumChristianus wrote:
ericm2031 wrote:
If you’re talking about July, then yes. It was showing pre-COVID schedule previously...it now has the real schedule loaded.


It's down from the "default" or unadjusted schedule as one might call it, but in general up a bit from June in the "real" or actually now planned to be flown, schedule. Nowhere near Southwest or American yet as UA is still planning on riding this out with deeper cuts but it's an improvement over the bare than bare bones being flown now.


I know that...I’m not sure why you’re clarifying that...
 
Okcflyer
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sat Jun 06, 2020 12:05 pm

redrooster3 wrote:
Okcflyer wrote:
FlyGuy27 wrote:
Today's UA 2374 EWR - SFO was on the 76L. Other flights on a 752, 753 and 788. Interesting times for sure.

Wouldn't mind the 76L cross-country!


Increasing J demand?


Definitely not, only 7 passengers booked in business with 4 being upgrades. It was probably a NOC request to "get the plane flying" to avoid storage protocols.

On the other hand, im seeing a few 772s popping up in DEN/IAH/ORD. Aircraft 13 left for polaris mods on March 18th and spent about 50 days in mods and came back and is doing hub-to-hub runs.


Bummer. Thanks for the info though!
 
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calpsafltskeds
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sat Jun 06, 2020 3:26 pm

The 76L fleet has stored units sitting since about 3/30 except a few ferried in early April to long term storage at ROW.
N652UA was the last out of Polaris mod on 4/11, so it must be in a different storage mode and UA has kept it "active". If cargo demand needs a 763 it doesn't matter what the seat configuration is with poor passenger demand.
It seems interesting that UA chose to fire up 2 of 7 non-Polaris 763s, N657UA and N658UA after 6 weeks or more in storage for occasional hub-to-hub and transcon flights.
7 of 14 763A units are occasionally operating as well.

All 772ER appear in storage except:
The last 2 772GE Polaris mods, N76010 and N78013 (exited HKG 5/10-11) are both doing occasional ORD-IAH/IAD/DEN turns to stay active.
772ER/PW N798UA was last out of XMN maint 5/11 is doing occasional IAD-SJU turns and N210UA is doing occasional hub-to-hub services after several military charter legs in late May.

UA is definitely keeping specific aircraft, specific groups of aircraft and aircraft types in specific locations. Aircraft in and out of short term parking seem to return to the same airport for a day or more of being parked. The newer 738s plus many Airbuses are being flown for up to several days, then usually returned to the same location to swap out with another parked aircraft of the same type. 739s are being used infrequently at this point.
 
AmericanAir88
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sat Jun 06, 2020 3:44 pm

Does anyone have the schedule for EWR in July? Are they planning on using a 787-10 for one of the EWR-LAX routes? Also, I am curious how EWR operations will look.
 
UALifer
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sat Jun 06, 2020 3:57 pm

AmericanAir88 wrote:
Does anyone have the schedule for EWR in July? Are they planning on using a 787-10 for one of the EWR-LAX routes? Also, I am curious how EWR operations will look.


Domestic schedules were updated last night, so whatever is selling should be mostly accurate now.
 
hollywoodcory
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sat Jun 06, 2020 9:04 pm

Haven't had a chance to review the full month's schedule, but looks like UA is resuming ops to Canada but only to YYZ/YUL & YVR in July?
 
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Amwest2United
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sat Jun 06, 2020 10:21 pm

AmericanAir88 wrote:
Does anyone have the schedule for EWR in July? Are they planning on using a 787-10 for one of the EWR-LAX routes? Also, I am curious how EWR operations will look.


2 - 752- CO Birds
1 - 767-300 30 BC
1 787-10
per day in July
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AmericanAir88
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sun Jun 07, 2020 3:18 am

Amwest2United wrote:
AmericanAir88 wrote:
Does anyone have the schedule for EWR in July? Are they planning on using a 787-10 for one of the EWR-LAX routes? Also, I am curious how EWR operations will look.


2 - 752- CO Birds
1 - 767-300 30 BC
1 787-10
per day in July


Just booked last night with a very friendly representative. I am on the 787-10. Its flight 410 that leaves at 8:30. It is weird that today, the flight was operated by a 738. The other days are a 787 though.

Thank you for this.
 
UAinAUS
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sun Jun 07, 2020 6:48 am

UAX Update:

E175SC:
N607UX entered service with Skywest
N611UX entered service with Skywest
N622UX entered service with Skywest

E170:
N652RW has returned to flying

E145XR:
N12142 has been transferred to ExpressJet, back in service
N11106 has been transferred to ExpressJet, back in service
N11107 now parked at TYS
N17115 exited fleet, stored at IGM
N14180 exited fleet, stored at IGM

E145:
N15910 is now back in service
N11539 exited fleet, stored at IGM
N12569 exited fleet, stored at IGM
N26545 exited fleet, stored at IGM
N13553 exited fleet, stored at IGM
 
VC10er
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sun Jun 07, 2020 4:17 pm

I have to admit that I have not really been on a.net for a couple of months...it was just too sad for me. I missed 20 pages!

So, perhaps this was fully discussed; what are UNITED’s plans for the newly refurbished CRJ-550’s?

Thanks!
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atrude777
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sun Jun 07, 2020 4:49 pm

UAinAUS wrote:

E145XR:
N12142 has been transferred to ExpressJet, back in service
N11106 has been transferred to ExpressJet, back in service
N11107 now parked at TYS
N17115 exited fleet, stored at IGM
N14180 exited fleet, stored at IGM

E145:
N15910 is now back in service
N11539 exited fleet, stored at IGM
N12569 exited fleet, stored at IGM
N26545 exited fleet, stored at IGM
N13553 exited fleet, stored at IGM


Are these E145's the ones at Trans States or what?

As I thought they were all going to Express Jet?

So are these pre COVID19 planned retirements, or COVID19 "Retirement" for 50 Seaters as Kirby had mentioned?

Alex
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77H
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sun Jun 07, 2020 6:45 pm

atrude777 wrote:
UAinAUS wrote:

E145XR:
N12142 has been transferred to ExpressJet, back in service
N11106 has been transferred to ExpressJet, back in service
N11107 now parked at TYS
N17115 exited fleet, stored at IGM
N14180 exited fleet, stored at IGM

E145:
N15910 is now back in service
N11539 exited fleet, stored at IGM
N12569 exited fleet, stored at IGM
N26545 exited fleet, stored at IGM
N13553 exited fleet, stored at IGM


Are these E145's the ones at Trans States or what?

As I thought they were all going to Express Jet?

So are these pre COVID19 planned retirements, or COVID19 "Retirement" for 50 Seaters as Kirby had mentioned?

Alex


It’s really a shame that UA has consistently drawn down ER4 frames over CR2 frames every time the fleet plan strategy calls for a reduction in 50 seaters. In the last few years UA has even gone as far as to reduce ER4 frames while adding CR2 frames.

I have no insight on the variance between operating costs between the 2 types, but from a pax comfort perspective, the ER4 is far superior to the CR2.

77H
 
sldispatcher
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sun Jun 07, 2020 11:45 pm

I could not agree more. The CR2 love at United needs to end sooner rather than later.
 
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cosyr
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Mon Jun 08, 2020 12:50 am

77H wrote:
atrude777 wrote:
UAinAUS wrote:

E145XR:
N12142 has been transferred to ExpressJet, back in service
N11106 has been transferred to ExpressJet, back in service
N11107 now parked at TYS
N17115 exited fleet, stored at IGM
N14180 exited fleet, stored at IGM

E145:
N15910 is now back in service
N11539 exited fleet, stored at IGM
N12569 exited fleet, stored at IGM
N26545 exited fleet, stored at IGM
N13553 exited fleet, stored at IGM


Are these E145's the ones at Trans States or what?

As I thought they were all going to Express Jet?

So are these pre COVID19 planned retirements, or COVID19 "Retirement" for 50 Seaters as Kirby had mentioned?

Alex


It’s really a shame that UA has consistently drawn down ER4 frames over CR2 frames every time the fleet plan strategy calls for a reduction in 50 seaters. In the last few years UA has even gone as far as to reduce ER4 frames while adding CR2 frames.

I have no insight on the variance between operating costs between the 2 types, but from a pax comfort perspective, the ER4 is far superior to the CR2.

77H

My guess would be lease terminations and amazing deals on the CR2's. I believe that ERJ's are more cost effective to operate, but if the price to acquire or lease is low enough, the price of oil shouldn't be enough of a factor.
 
jetmatt777
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Mon Jun 08, 2020 1:07 am

Classic example of United being cheap to a fault. The CR2 is horrible from a passenger experience.
 
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cosyr
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Mon Jun 08, 2020 1:37 am

jetmatt777 wrote:
Classic example of United being cheap to a fault. The CR2 is horrible from a passenger experience.

It is a bit confusing, when they spend the money to make CR5's. But I think they think the ER4's and CR2's are similar experience, as neither has F or true Y+. It is frustrating, as I've spoken to people who don't know anything about planes, but they particularly hated their CR2 experiences.
 
sldispatcher
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Mon Jun 08, 2020 2:23 am

It’s all about the windows and the window seat shoulder room.

I am encouraged that Kirby is headed towards getting rid of 50 seaters altogether but will be interesting to see the actual timetable.
 
77H
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Mon Jun 08, 2020 4:17 am

cosyr wrote:
jetmatt777 wrote:
Classic example of United being cheap to a fault. The CR2 is horrible from a passenger experience.

It is a bit confusing, when they spend the money to make CR5's. But I think they think the ER4's and CR2's are similar experience, as neither has F or true Y+. It is frustrating, as I've spoken to people who don't know anything about planes, but they particularly hated their CR2 experiences.


I personally find the 1-2 layout of the ER4 superior to the 2-2 layout of the CR2. Seems like many passengers familiar with both types have a similar opinion. Moreover, the cabin ceiling seems a little bit higher in the ER4 than the CR2 and in my experience, found cabin interiors of the ER4s to be in better shape than the CR2s, AW’a newly refurbished ones that are quite nice.

And last but not least, as an aviation enthusiast who grabs a window whenever possible, the ER4 has windows positioned in such a way that an adult can readily look out the window without inducing rapid onset scoliosis. The same cannot be said for the CR2.

77H
 
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LAXintl
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Mon Jun 08, 2020 5:21 am

A bit more insight as to why UA is growing its schedule so slow.

Per Inflight townhall last week:

While travel demand is slowly increasing, we’re still only operating a small fraction of our original schedule. Many of you have asked about why we aren’t increasing flying faster to locations that are opening up (like Florida and Texas). While we’re eager to add flying to the schedule, we also need to be able to operate the route profitably, or atleast not lose even more money doing it. We have a highly skilled team in revenue management and network planning who are closely watching bookings, travel demand and customers willingness to travel. As soon as it’s clear that there is enough demand to justify operating a route, we’ll be quick to add flying. On the international side, you’ll see we are currently focused on hubs that have historically strong international flying demand, which are our coastal hubs versus a mid-continent hub. For our mid-continent hubs, we’ll continue focusing on domestic connectivity that is required to support further restoration of our flying.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
tphuang
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Mon Jun 08, 2020 11:38 am

LAXintl wrote:
A bit more insight as to why UA is growing its schedule so slow.

Per Inflight townhall last week:

While travel demand is slowly increasing, we’re still only operating a small fraction of our original schedule. Many of you have asked about why we aren’t increasing flying faster to locations that are opening up (like Florida and Texas). While we’re eager to add flying to the schedule, we also need to be able to operate the route profitably, or atleast not lose even more money doing it. We have a highly skilled team in revenue management and network planning who are closely watching bookings, travel demand and customers willingness to travel. As soon as it’s clear that there is enough demand to justify operating a route, we’ll be quick to add flying. On the international side, you’ll see we are currently focused on hubs that have historically strong international flying demand, which are our coastal hubs versus a mid-continent hub. For our mid-continent hubs, we’ll continue focusing on domestic connectivity that is required to support further restoration of our flying.


This seems like the difference between AA and UA. UA is making capacity decisions based on the forward bookings/demands they see. AA is making capacity decisions based on demand they hope to see. And in June, it worked out well for AA in that bookings came back faster in Texas/Florida. Now that every ULCC is adding back capacity, that means a bigger portion of bookings will go to them. Unless demand really jumps, I don't see how this leap in capacity will work out again for AA.
 
jayunited
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Mon Jun 08, 2020 12:32 pm

tphuang wrote:
LAXintl wrote:
A bit more insight as to why UA is growing its schedule so slow.

Per Inflight townhall last week:

While travel demand is slowly increasing, we’re still only operating a small fraction of our original schedule. Many of you have asked about why we aren’t increasing flying faster to locations that are opening up (like Florida and Texas). While we’re eager to add flying to the schedule, we also need to be able to operate the route profitably, or atleast not lose even more money doing it. We have a highly skilled team in revenue management and network planning who are closely watching bookings, travel demand and customers willingness to travel. As soon as it’s clear that there is enough demand to justify operating a route, we’ll be quick to add flying. On the international side, you’ll see we are currently focused on hubs that have historically strong international flying demand, which are our coastal hubs versus a mid-continent hub. For our mid-continent hubs, we’ll continue focusing on domestic connectivity that is required to support further restoration of our flying.


This seems like the difference between AA and UA. UA is making capacity decisions based on the forward bookings/demands they see. AA is making capacity decisions based on demand they hope to see. And in June, it worked out well for AA in that bookings came back faster in Texas/Florida. Now that every ULCC is adding back capacity, that means a bigger portion of bookings will go to them. Unless demand really jumps, I don't see how this leap in capacity will work out again for AA.



I absolutely agree with you tphuang, I could care less that AA will fly 55% of there pre-COVID schedule in July if they are loosing money doing it. The recovery can not be about keeping up with the Joneses it has to be about stemming the tide and survival. United has to stay on top if its finances, and I like the approach UA's revenue management team is taking. United has to continue to work to keep our daily cash burn rate heading in the right direction. Delta's hopes to reach zero cash burn by years end, hopefully UA can reach zero by the end of January or February 2021. If United simply focused on the short term (leisure travelers) it could end up costing us overall. I would rather UA loose a few leisure customers and focus on preserving cash and reducing our losses instead of taking on every ULCC/LCC and UA ends up in bankruptcy. This is recovery is going to take time and right now the LCCs and ULCCs have the advantage because the recovery for now is mostly in the domestic leisure market. United's time will come, we as employees just need to be patience, the last thing United needs to do is try and rush this recovery.
 
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atcsundevil
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Mon Jun 08, 2020 7:22 pm

The fleet changes, fleet status, and repaint status posts at the start of this thread have been updated.

There is also a post dedicated to keeping track of stored mainline aircraft.

✈️ atcsundevil
 
FSDan
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Mon Jun 08, 2020 9:07 pm

77H wrote:
cosyr wrote:
jetmatt777 wrote:
Classic example of United being cheap to a fault. The CR2 is horrible from a passenger experience.

It is a bit confusing, when they spend the money to make CR5's. But I think they think the ER4's and CR2's are similar experience, as neither has F or true Y+. It is frustrating, as I've spoken to people who don't know anything about planes, but they particularly hated their CR2 experiences.


I personally find the 1-2 layout of the ER4 superior to the 2-2 layout of the CR2. Seems like many passengers familiar with both types have a similar opinion. Moreover, the cabin ceiling seems a little bit higher in the ER4 than the CR2 and in my experience, found cabin interiors of the ER4s to be in better shape than the CR2s, AW’a newly refurbished ones that are quite nice.

And last but not least, as an aviation enthusiast who grabs a window whenever possible, the ER4 has windows positioned in such a way that an adult can readily look out the window without inducing rapid onset scoliosis. The same cannot be said for the CR2.

77H


:checkmark: +1

I was sad when DL consolidated 50-seaters down to just CR2s rather than ER4s as well. It's all about the windows for me.
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joeblow10
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Mon Jun 08, 2020 9:24 pm

tphuang wrote:
LAXintl wrote:
A bit more insight as to why UA is growing its schedule so slow.

Per Inflight townhall last week:

While travel demand is slowly increasing, we’re still only operating a small fraction of our original schedule. Many of you have asked about why we aren’t increasing flying faster to locations that are opening up (like Florida and Texas). While we’re eager to add flying to the schedule, we also need to be able to operate the route profitably, or atleast not lose even more money doing it. We have a highly skilled team in revenue management and network planning who are closely watching bookings, travel demand and customers willingness to travel. As soon as it’s clear that there is enough demand to justify operating a route, we’ll be quick to add flying. On the international side, you’ll see we are currently focused on hubs that have historically strong international flying demand, which are our coastal hubs versus a mid-continent hub. For our mid-continent hubs, we’ll continue focusing on domestic connectivity that is required to support further restoration of our flying.


This seems like the difference between AA and UA. UA is making capacity decisions based on the forward bookings/demands they see. AA is making capacity decisions based on demand they hope to see. And in June, it worked out well for AA in that bookings came back faster in Texas/Florida. Now that every ULCC is adding back capacity, that means a bigger portion of bookings will go to them. Unless demand really jumps, I don't see how this leap in capacity will work out again for AA.


I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: it’s a chicken and the egg problem. UA and DL run the risk of cutting so deep, that they won’t see the demand come in. Conversely, as you said, AA and the ULCC run the risk of having too much capacity and running even more unprofitably, until they subtract demand.

So far - I would argue the latter is paying off. Maybe not for AA, but anecdotally from data points from myself and friends, the NKs and WNs of the world are running “full” capped planes and adding flights. There was a point in May and early this month I couldn’t even build an MCO-SEA itinerary on UA and even on DL because of seat caps. At least now there are 1-2 options, but that is nothing in comparison to what others are offering.
 
jayunited
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Tue Jun 09, 2020 12:00 am

joeblow10 wrote:
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: it’s a chicken and the egg problem. UA and DL run the risk of cutting so deep, that they won’t see the demand come in. Conversely, as you said, AA and the ULCC run the risk of having too much capacity and running even more unprofitably, until they subtract demand.

So far - I would argue the latter is paying off. Maybe not for AA, but anecdotally from data points from myself and friends, the NKs and WNs of the world are running “full” capped planes and adding flights. There was a point in May and early this month I couldn’t even build an MCO-SEA itinerary on UA and even on DL because of seat caps. At least now there are 1-2 options, but that is nothing in comparison to what others are offering.



Airlines like DL and UA are playing it smartly they know they can't take on LCCs and ULCCs head on and win, not in this COVID environment. Right now domestically leisure traffic is slowly coming back but more aggressively than business traffic and international traffic. I think the 1-2 domestic options both DL and UA offer is better than no options at all. However trying and take on NK, F9, and/or WN head on in this environment would be suicided. Again like you and others have pointed out I'm not sure what AA is doing but both DL and UA are taking the right approach. Heading into summer 2020 they will capture some leisure traffic but just enough where they are not loosing money. Whereas AA flying 55% will probably do more harm to their bottom line than good.
 
jetmatt777
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Tue Jun 09, 2020 2:08 am

Too early to say who's approach is the right one. The question is, can United add capacity back fast enough if needed? I'm hearing of the company requesting voluntary furloughs (COLA) to return ahead of the scheduled date. Just the other day, for the first time in months, I received a work email advertising overtime. If demand does "snap" back United's aggressive cuts will be too deep to ramp up quick enough. That's where AA and WN will have a large advantage, they can absorb demand and convert it into operating income instantly. American is operating double the flights and carrying double the traffic.

There are two distinct strategies and I think you are calling United the winner way too early.
 
tphuang
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Tue Jun 09, 2020 2:29 am

You can't compare UA to WN. UA does not have that much cash. And also, UA is far more exposed to the reduction in LH international travel than any other airlines. And it also has most hubs on coastal areas where demand is coming back the slowest.

July isn't going to be a repeat of second half of May to first half of June for AA. ULCCs are really ramping up capacity to take advantage of price sensitive customers coming back. Is this really an area UA should aggressively compete in? Out of EWR in July, I see UA offering more flights to most leisure destinations than its competitions. That's not like June where UA I think really did cut too much and didn't have enough capacity to capture the demand.
 
jetmatt777
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Tue Jun 09, 2020 2:34 am

Sure they have different models - but they also have incredible amounts of overlap in the domestic market, one which WN is salivating to capture more of UA's share. If UA can't adapt then they will suffer on the domestic front to what WN is putting out there. We aren't talking about G4 flying old folks to vegas and college kids to south beach. This is an airline with significant capacity in some of UA's largest markets. Losing to WN will be a serious blow to UA's attempt to shore up domestic flying over the past few years.
 
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LAXintl
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Tue Jun 09, 2020 5:40 am

Here are a couple of stories that might be of interest.

Brett Snyder takes look at why the US3 differs so much. His take on UA is that its hubs are disadvantaged due to uneven recovery in the U.S with their coastal hotspot locations, it's bigger international flying dependence (with a network built for such feed), and also owning the largest collection of premium widebody fleet which are less useful today.

American Bets on United’s Network Disadvantage and Delta’s Conservative Nature to Leap Ahead
https://crankyflier.com/2020/06/08/unit ... advantage/

Another story is by Skift looking at how airlines view summer recovery differently and also looks at AA vs UA and similarly points out different hub structures, seat mix, and exposure to returning markets like Florida where United is far undersized compared to AA

American and United Diverge on Summer Recovery Expectations
https://skift.com/2020/06/04/american-a ... ectations/
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
jayunited
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Tue Jun 09, 2020 12:18 pm

jetmatt777 wrote:
Too early to say who's approach is the right one. The question is, can United add capacity back fast enough if needed? I'm hearing of the company requesting voluntary furloughs (COLA) to return ahead of the scheduled date. Just the other day, for the first time in months, I received a work email advertising overtime. If demand does "snap" back United's aggressive cuts will be too deep to ramp up quick enough. That's where AA and WN will have a large advantage, they can absorb demand and convert it into operating income instantly. American is operating double the flights and carrying double the traffic.

There are two distinct strategies and I think you are calling United the winner way too early.


But are they carrying the traffic at a profitable rate? Just yesterday UA put out a really great article on Flying Together that directly address this issue. With so many employees looking at AA and asking why will AA fly 55% while UA domestically will only be at 30%? The answer comes down to profitability, UA will fly some routes where we know we can make a profit. UA is focusing on preserving cash because it is expensive to fly aircraft and it is not simply about carrying traffic it is about carrying traffic profitability. Is AA simply carry traffic just to carry traffic or is AA carrying traffic profitably? In this environment where we are seeing price sensitive leisure customers return we will have to wait for the Q2 and Q3 report to see if AA's move is paying dividends or if it is costing them money. AA's cost are just as high if not higher than UA's cost, taking on ULCCs and LCCs is a gamble.

Another issue the article touched on is what happens after October 1st. Even in this COVID environment there is still an ebb and flow to leisure traffic, right now as we enter into summer there is going to be a nice spike domestically because most international destinations still have some type of restriction in place. But what happens in October when leisure demand drops? If the US remains open and I think we will even if there is a second wave, children will be back in school (either in person or online), and for Americans who manage to keep their job they will be back at work (either in person or work from home). If UA spends money now in a dog fighting for price sensitive domestic leisure traffic and we do not see a return on that investment UA would have wasted a ton of money and for what. If UA and DL wants to survive all 12 rounds of this figuratively speaking boxing match then they have to be smart. It may seem like we are loosing valuable market share but keep in mind most leisure travelers are not loyal to any one particular airline, their wallet dictates which airline they fly, COVID-19 has not changed this reality. I think airlines like UA and DL are willing to take the hit this summer and conserve cash (get the burn rate down) so they have the resources necessary to fight come summer 2021 which is probably when the REAL recovery begins.
 
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calpsafltskeds
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Tue Jun 09, 2020 3:40 pm

I totally understand UA's approach, but am somewhat concerned about aircraft assignments and cost of adding flights.

Generally UA has been heavily flying smaller domestic mainline aircraft (below chart). That could be totally appropriate with low loads, but providing more seats would allow UA to spread passengers (improved social distancing) out and maybe prevent UA from having to advise passengers when the LF gets to 70% that they can change flights w/o cost. I know cash is the most important thing now, but the incremental cost of moving flights from 319s to 320s or 73G to 738/739 must be very low (minimal higher fuel and landing fees plus extra FA that are already on the payroll).

I don't have capability or time to view all flights, but many seat maps out of my home airport SAN (where departures are few) show full seat maps, knowing middle seats and some F seats may be blocked, all windows and aisles can be shown as taken. At departure, I understand UA is carrying a higher percentage of non-revenue travel due to depressed revenue passengers, so revenue passengers per flight is a bit hard to figure. For good employee relations, if larger aircraft were flown, it could allow non-revenue passengers from getting bumped with a LF over 70%.

Airbus fleet flying today
319: 32 flying, 43.2% of fleet
320: 31 flying, 32% of fleet

737 fleet flying today
73G: 10 flying, 25% of fleet
738: 20 flying, 14.2% of fleet
739: 14 flying, 9.5% of fleet

757 fleet flying today
752: 3 flying, 5.9% of fleet (these all have lie flats)
753: 7 flying, 33.3% of fleet

As for added flying, at this point I'm sure UA is looking at incremental costs as that's all that matters vs. having an aircraft parked for the day. Incremental costs only include fuel and landing fees plus only direct crew, labor at stations and maintenance cost to operate the flight vs. having it parked. With low fuel costs and crews/station personnel already on payroll, I wonder what the break-even incremental cost is today. It could be as low as 50% lower than fully allocated costs which include fixed advertising/rentals/administration/lease/interest/depreciation/insurance costs.

Obviously covering (and adding) flights with the right equipment is a very labor intensive process as all flights are under constant review and I'm assuming UA is doing the right thing even though I'd like to see more upgauging.
 
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UPlog
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Tue Jun 09, 2020 5:49 pm

jayunited wrote:
Just yesterday UA put out a really great article on Flying Together that directly address this issue. With so many employees looking at AA and asking why will AA fly 55% while UA domestically will only be at 30%? The answer comes down to profitability, UA will fly some routes where we know we can make a profit. UA is focusing on preserving cash because it is expensive to fly aircraft and it is not simply about carrying traffic it is about carrying traffic profitability. Is AA simply carry traffic just to carry traffic or is AA carrying traffic profitably? In this environment where we are seeing price sensitive leisure customers return we will have to wait for the Q2 and Q3 report to see if AA's move is paying dividends or if it is costing them money. AA's cost are just as high if not higher than UA's cost, taking on ULCCs and LCCs is a gamble.


For benefit of others below is the article:

As states and municipalities begin to reopen, United is restoring nonstop service to places customers want to go. Whether visiting family, going on vacation, or conducting business, many customers have told us they are considering flying again. In response, United is reinstating flights at over 150 of its U.S. and Canadian destinations, including the resumption of approximately 140 previously suspended nonstop routes. While overall capacity will continue to be significantly lower year-over-year due to the effects of COVID-19, July domestic capacity will be down 70% year-over-year, an improvement from June, which was down 87% from 2019.
If you get questions:
◘ While it’s encouraging to see U.S. domestic demand begin to creep back toward former levels, we are still seeing softness in demand across the board, particularly for domestic flying.
◘ We are not alone in a taking a more conservative approach – Delta’s schedule looks a lot like ours this July.
◘ Flying airplanes is expensive – and it’s more critical now than ever for us to conserve costs and fly as profitably as we can so we can remain flexible and bounce back when demand returns.
◘ But there’s a lot more to flying profitably than just filling seats – we have to be able to offer those seats to customers for a price they’re willing to pay and in a way that compensates us for the cost of operating our schedule.
◘ We continue to fly more international flights than any major U.S. airline, and we’ve been able to resume as much international flying as we have largely because of our aggressive and successful cargo business.
◘ The bottom line: We would rather fly a reduced schedule, save cash and set ourselves up for long-term success than operate an inflated schedule that costs us money and risks our ability to preserve as many jobs as we possibly can on October 1 and beyond.



Personally I believe UA is doing well by being conservative with focus on minimizing cash burn. Also like others mentioned UA's hub locations vis-a-vis COVID19 hotspots, and its exposure to international flying and feed also certainly plays roles on how it rebuilds flying.
I fly your boxes
 
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CPS001
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Tue Jun 09, 2020 6:06 pm

Is United blocking seats for social distancing? On a B737 on an itinerary next week, all the B and E seats are unavailable, but on an E175 all 4 across are available.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G930A using Tapatalk
 
atrude777
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Tue Jun 09, 2020 6:55 pm

CPS001 wrote:
Is United blocking seats for social distancing? On a B737 on an itinerary next week, all the B and E seats are unavailable, but on an E175 all 4 across are available.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G930A using Tapatalk


They are not "blocking" middle seats from being sold, but they are holding the middle seats from being assigned.

UA is only "holding" middle seats on aircraft with middle seats, and the first row of F and Last Row of Economy on 2 Class Aircraft, and Front row and last row of Economy on 1 Class Cabin Aircraft.

Since there is no middle seats on 175 and 1 Cabin aircraft, there is no middle seats to block/hold.

Alex
Good things come to those who wait, better things come to those who go AFTER it!
 
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CPS001
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Tue Jun 09, 2020 7:27 pm

atrude777 wrote:
CPS001 wrote:
Is United blocking seats for social distancing? On a B737 on an itinerary next week, all the B and E seats are unavailable, but on an E175 all 4 across are available.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G930A using Tapatalk


They are not "blocking" middle seats from being sold, but they are holding the middle seats from being assigned.

UA is only "holding" middle seats on aircraft with middle seats, and the first row of F and Last Row of Economy on 2 Class Aircraft, and Front row and last row of Economy on 1 Class Cabin Aircraft.

Since there is no middle seats on 175 and 1 Cabin aircraft, there is no middle seats to block/hold.

Alex
Thanks.
 
bigb
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Tue Jun 09, 2020 8:07 pm

tphuang wrote:
LAXintl wrote:
A bit more insight as to why UA is growing its schedule so slow.

Per Inflight townhall last week:

While travel demand is slowly increasing, we’re still only operating a small fraction of our original schedule. Many of you have asked about why we aren’t increasing flying faster to locations that are opening up (like Florida and Texas). While we’re eager to add flying to the schedule, we also need to be able to operate the route profitably, or atleast not lose even more money doing it. We have a highly skilled team in revenue management and network planning who are closely watching bookings, travel demand and customers willingness to travel. As soon as it’s clear that there is enough demand to justify operating a route, we’ll be quick to add flying. On the international side, you’ll see we are currently focused on hubs that have historically strong international flying demand, which are our coastal hubs versus a mid-continent hub. For our mid-continent hubs, we’ll continue focusing on domestic connectivity that is required to support further restoration of our flying.


This seems like the difference between AA and UA. UA is making capacity decisions based on the forward bookings/demands they see. AA is making capacity decisions based on demand they hope to see. And in June, it worked out well for AA in that bookings came back faster in Texas/Florida. Now that every ULCC is adding back capacity, that means a bigger portion of bookings will go to them. Unless demand really jumps, I don't see how this leap in capacity will work out again for AA.


You have no idea what booking numbers are looking at AA to make that kind of judgement. Something else you are failing to consider is different markets which AA has increased its flights to and from and domestic network infrastructure vs United international heavy network. Just like UA seeing increased demand at its coastal hubs, AA is already seeing that demand in and out of Texas, Florida, and the SE states with AA has a stronghold shared with DL. I think the leap of capacity will work in AA's favor.
 
MSPNWA
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Tue Jun 09, 2020 10:36 pm

LAXintl wrote:
Here are a couple of stories that might be of interest.

Brett Snyder takes look at why the US3 differs so much. His take on UA is that its hubs are disadvantaged due to uneven recovery in the U.S with their coastal hotspot locations, it's bigger international flying dependence (with a network built for such feed), and also owning the largest collection of premium widebody fleet which are less useful today.

American Bets on United’s Network Disadvantage and Delta’s Conservative Nature to Leap Ahead
https://crankyflier.com/2020/06/08/unit ... advantage/

Another story is by Skift looking at how airlines view summer recovery differently and also looks at AA vs UA and similarly points out different hub structures, seat mix, and exposure to returning markets like Florida where United is far undersized compared to AA

American and United Diverge on Summer Recovery Expectations
https://skift.com/2020/06/04/american-a ... ectations/


I think the experts are dramatically over-analyzing the situation. They're stuck on pre-crisis talking points. They need to wipe the slate clean over what used to be the strengths and weaknesses of each carrier. Instead they're analyzing this as if the previous structural advantages and limitations still hold. That era is gone for good. All carriers have more than enough physical capability to operate a larger network that consists of the right equipment. UA operating a fraction of their narrowbody fleet isn't because of a pre-crisis network that proportionally offered more international capacity. It's not because of regional demand differences in traffic that AA is running more capacity than UA at ORD, and that capacity is to diverse cities such as LAX, SEA, PDX, AUS, MCO, MSY, ATL, DCA, and LGA. It isn't regional differences to explain why IAH is a ghost town compared to DFW. It's ironic to even talk about UA's former international capacity percentage because it was no secret that UA was actively building a larger domestic network in response to the sound belief that UA was smaller domestically they they should have been. And so now the loss and reset of all traffic, international included, is a reason that UA cut their network so deeply and isn't bringing it back as quickly? The connection doesn't exist. The opposite is more reasonable. This is UA's opportunity to correct the imbalance and gain their "natural share".

What this comes down to isn't pre-crisis networks. This comes down to the strategy formulated and the decisions made post-crisis. Granted, some of those decisions are likely affected by internal physical issues that either prevent or limit the capacity actions than can be taken, but outsiders won't know all that, and this isn't the argument being made anyway. Just as much as I thought AA and WN didn't cut deeply enough right away in the very short-term, I'd say at this point it looks like DL and UA ceded the prime recovery opportunity to WN and AA by cutting too much this far out. As more and more people travel, there's often only two carriers to go with. If UA wants to sit this recovery out, that's their choice, but it doesn't take much revenue to turn more capacity into a marginal profit. With the substantial fixed costs of employees being paid to sit around and twiddle their thumbs, the cheap variable costs with today's cheap fuel means that demand doesn't have to be large to reduce the cash burn. And there's plausible reasons for internally getting it wrong. For example, if UA is looking at their own demand profiles, it's tough to make the decision to increase capacity. However, there appears to be a significant "build it and they will come" situation going on. The analysis needs to be from an industry-wide demand perspective. From that perspective, demand is coming back more than what UA and DL are preparing for. And this is where being the first mover (or never mover) is better. If UA and DL came back now, there's a good chance the market will be flooded again. So I don't doubt that coming back more quickly now might not be lucrative for UA, but that is a self-inflicted wound, and it's not because of their pre-crisis network.
 
Super80DFW
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Tue Jun 09, 2020 10:52 pm

tphuang wrote:
LAXintl wrote:
A bit more insight as to why UA is growing its schedule so slow.

Per Inflight townhall last week:

While travel demand is slowly increasing, we’re still only operating a small fraction of our original schedule. Many of you have asked about why we aren’t increasing flying faster to locations that are opening up (like Florida and Texas). While we’re eager to add flying to the schedule, we also need to be able to operate the route profitably, or atleast not lose even more money doing it. We have a highly skilled team in revenue management and network planning who are closely watching bookings, travel demand and customers willingness to travel. As soon as it’s clear that there is enough demand to justify operating a route, we’ll be quick to add flying. On the international side, you’ll see we are currently focused on hubs that have historically strong international flying demand, which are our coastal hubs versus a mid-continent hub. For our mid-continent hubs, we’ll continue focusing on domestic connectivity that is required to support further restoration of our flying.


This seems like the difference between AA and UA. UA is making capacity decisions based on the forward bookings/demands they see. AA is making capacity decisions based on demand they hope to see. And in June, it worked out well for AA in that bookings came back faster in Texas/Florida. Now that every ULCC is adding back capacity, that means a bigger portion of bookings will go to them. Unless demand really jumps, I don't see how this leap in capacity will work out again for AA.


You sure have some heavily negative options about AA without any idea of what AA's bookings actually look like. Over the last couple weeks, AA has been carrying 3 times the amount of passengers daily that UA is.

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