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airplanedriver6
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Fri Jun 12, 2020 6:51 pm

CRJ5000 wrote:
WARN notices have to go out August 1st if they want to furloughs on Oct. 1st. They've got just under 2 months to make a decision. After that the airlines with a diverse fleet are going to have quite a mess with training from all the displacements from different aircraft types. Airlines are going to have to guess on what the recovery will look like and hope that they're right.

FWIW, if UAL furloughs more than about 2300 pilots on Oct 1 the notices to them will go out in early July for the 90 days notice per the pilot contract. Thus, we should have a preliminary peek at UAL's Oct 1 fleet plan in July.
 
CRJ5000
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Fri Jun 12, 2020 7:15 pm

airplanedriver6 wrote:
CRJ5000 wrote:
WARN notices have to go out August 1st if they want to furloughs on Oct. 1st. They've got just under 2 months to make a decision. After that the airlines with a diverse fleet are going to have quite a mess with training from all the displacements from different aircraft types. Airlines are going to have to guess on what the recovery will look like and hope that they're right.

FWIW, if UAL furloughs more than about 2300 pilots on Oct 1 the notices to them will go out in early July for the 90 days notice per the pilot contract. Thus, we should have a preliminary peek at UAL's Oct 1 fleet plan in July.


Thanks for the info. Good to know. Tough to keep up with all the different labor contracts.
 
ordbosewr
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Fri Jun 12, 2020 7:42 pm

LAXintl wrote:
It seems many are forgetting how serious things are across the global economy and what airlines are truly facing.

Look back at 2008-2009 downturn and you'll see how hard travel was hit. A seemingly small 13.1% decline in U.S. corporate travel led to 144,000 airline and support job losses with billions in red ink that took a good half-decade plus to dig out of.

Today we are looking at a situation corporate travel virtually having come to a halt entirely with a global recession around us. The magnitude of this hit is far worse than 2008-2009, so the idea that an airline will only be back to 70% capacity in 2021 is actually pretty optimistic in my view. Personally I see an even smaller industry so long as people's health cannot be assured and we must operate under various restrictions globally that will slow consumer activity and high-value corporate travel which is critical for legacy operators.


I can not agree more with this perspective. Speaking as person in corporate america with a large group of folks that do alot of travel. Very little of those folks are traveling. For this to happen, offices must open. We have to have our offices open, we need our customers offices to open. Once they are open then we can start to have a debate if and how in-person meetings will be conducted.
I can tell you that so far, we have not see any definitive direction on what my company expects and what it will look like.
Even if we had all of these answers travel is not going to start overnight. It will take time.
I am not even talking about international business travel, I am focused on domestic.
 
Sevensixtyseven
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Fri Jun 12, 2020 10:37 pm

eugdjinn wrote:
One of the things I don't see anyone factoring in is this: AA is quite cleverly using their wholly owned regionals to do a substantial amount of that increased flying right now. Those are planes they own, and people whose paychecks they are on the hook for anyway. Nothing to lose. UA isn't in a position to do that since they can't officially own a regional due to that surviving kill clause sitting in the FA contract. (Maybe it has outlasted it's usefulness??) As a result, PSA, Piedmont, and Envoy can be put to use earning some of their guarantee pay flying increasing schedules as demand picks up in their backyards, and mainline when demand grows to that point, without killing the airline. Whereas DL and UA are so much more dependent on CPA regional flying where they will have to pay the full fee for departure to the contracted regional even if the flight is empty.

Too, someone asked way up-thread why it is that UA is flying so many CRJ200s instead of ERJ145s - it's a pretty simple answer - on the West Coast, and now in Denver with TSA gone, the only UAX contractor available with 50 seat lift is SkyWest who do not fly and have sworn NEVER to fly a 145. Other than the 175, they are a CRJ house, so you have to deal with 200s. Should ExpressJet survive, and get its house in order, they may someday open the elusive DEN base and you'll see 145XRs there again. (I'd give them a 50-50 chance of folding altogether though, even with Papa Willis paying the bill, they seem to be a nightmare internally.)


From my knowledge & understanding, UA is leaning extremely heavily on RJ operators, at least at my airport, IAH. XJT and Mesa are picking up most of the shorter flights in and out of Houston, with the remainder being SkyWest. I haven't seen a Republic frame in IAH in a while, and those used to be popping up here and there on hub-spoke-hub routes out of IAH. I don't believe a single Mesa E75 is laid up, and they're even (as of now) planning to run a IAH-IAD flight in July with one. This particular route (and IAH-ONT and IAH-RNO) are at the edge of the operational range of the E75, at least where Houston routes are concerned. I would think Mesa is both happy and terrified at the same time, if AA is using Mesa a bit less in DFW, and a lot less in PHX, even if UA is throwing them buckets of money to operate their E75s out of IAH and IAD, as well as a gaggle of tired CRJ-700s out of IAD.
I call the dusty desert my home. :)
 
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atcsundevil
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sat Jun 13, 2020 2:46 am

Sevensixtyseven wrote:
From my knowledge & understanding, UA is leaning extremely heavily on RJ operators, at least at my airport, IAH. XJT and Mesa are picking up most of the shorter flights in and out of Houston, with the remainder being SkyWest. I haven't seen a Republic frame in IAH in a while, and those used to be popping up here and there on hub-spoke-hub routes out of IAH. I don't believe a single Mesa E75 is laid up, and they're even (as of now) planning to run a IAH-IAD flight in July with one. This particular route (and IAH-ONT and IAH-RNO) are at the edge of the operational range of the E75, at least where Houston routes are concerned. I would think Mesa is both happy and terrified at the same time, if AA is using Mesa a bit less in DFW, and a lot less in PHX, even if UA is throwing them buckets of money to operate their E75s out of IAH and IAD, as well as a gaggle of tired CRJ-700s out of IAD.

This is definitely the case at IAD. During the 3pm bank, at least 90% or more of the flights coming in from the south and north are RJ, and most are indeed the CRJ7. Generally, the only mainline flights are coming from the west. Under normal circumstances, that push would usually be about 50/50.
 
UAinAUS
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sat Jun 13, 2020 4:02 am

UAX Update:

CR2:
N461AW parked at DAY
N652BR has returned to flying
N869AS parked at TUS
N679SA parked at FWA

E45XR:
N11107 has returned to flying
N17159 has returned to flying

E45;
N15986 has returned to flying

E175SC:
N607UX now flying with Skywest
N611UX now flying with Skywest
N613UX now flying with Skywest
N614UX now flying with Skywest
N615UX now flying with Skywest
N622UX now flying with Skywest
 
VC10er
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sat Jun 13, 2020 3:16 pm

calpsafltskeds wrote:
I'm one of UA's biggest fans and OK with the cash preservation program --- but my continued concern is about seat size on aircraft flown. I must admit I don't have load factors on any UA flights to see if this is appropriate and maybe UA will be reactivating more larger narrow bodies soon.

DL has stated it will hold loads to 60% in coach and 50% in F. UA has not placed a limit on seating, even though they will probably continue to block middle seats on seat map - can we assume if more people book those middle seats will be sold?

If UA wants to operate a more restrictive schedule than AA and DL to increase yield, is it reasonable that UA can operate fuller flights at higher ticket prices vs. AA/DL with lower fares and seat restrictions?

An Airways Magazine article 4 days ago said DL is reactivating narrowbodies and so far only larger seats sized 321s and 739s have been reactivated.

UA is flying the lowest percentage of flights in larger 739 and 752 fleets and higher percentage in 319/73G/320 fleets. Today's fleet utilization is below (type, seats: units flying/total units % flying). Also note that UA has over 80% of 739s and 752s stored/parked more than 14 days at this point.:
319, 126 seats: 21/50 35.1% ----- (parked more than 14 days 34/74,46%)
73G, 126 seats: 11/40 27.5% ---- (parked more than 14 days 51/97,52.6%)
320, 150 seats: 30/97 30.9% ----- (parked more than 14 days 17/40,42.5%)
738, 166 seats: 26/141 17.0% --- (parked more than 14 days 71/141,50.4%)
739, 179 seats: 19/148 12.8% --- (parked more than 14 days 112/148, 81.1%)
752: 172 seats*: 4/47 7.8% ------- (parked more than 14 days 44/51,86.3%) (*avg with 3 of 7 in active service having new config)
753: 234 seats: 2/21 19% --------- (parked more than 14 days 11/21,52.4%) (2 additional aircraft are flying military charters today)
So, the narrow bodied total seats offered today on flying units is 17,405 and the 116 units flying average 150.1 seats. This seats size calculation assumes each unit flies roughly the same number of flights. However, at least half the 739s flying today have only 1 flight scheduled, lowering the average by some minor amount.


I’ve taken my 3rd flight on UA from EWR to MIA. Currently there is just one nonstop a day. (The second option has a stop in IAH, and costs much more than the nonstop)

I took these 3 flights over the past 3 weeks, each time UA has sent me an email saying “your flight is about 70% full, if you wish to rebook on another flight, no change fee will apply” - each flight I was in paid First, and traveling with a friend as my seat mate. Yesterday, the 738 was near totally full (if not 100% full). I WANT UNITED TO MAKE MONEY, but it does seem like this one nonstop should upguage to a 752 or add a second (maybe E175?) flight? I am sure HQ is watching this closely, but what would be the better move? A larger single nonstop or a second frequency? (Depending on the day this nonstop has had a 739, 738, A320 or 73G)
To Most the Sky is The Limit, For me, the Sky is Home.
 
LAXdude1023
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sat Jun 13, 2020 4:02 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
I definitely think it’s premature to cut up to 30% for next year. UA should expect others to pounce at already cut throat hubs like EWR, DEN, LAX, and even ORD.


With what demand?
FOR THE LOVE OF GOD BRING BACK THE PAYWALL!!!!
 
Judge1310
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sat Jun 13, 2020 4:33 pm

VC10er wrote:

I’ve taken my 3rd flight on UA from EWR to MIA. Currently there is just one nonstop a day. (The second option has a stop in IAH, and costs much more than the nonstop)

I took these 3 flights over the past 3 weeks, each time UA has sent me an email saying “your flight is about 70% full, if you wish to rebook on another flight, no change fee will apply” - each flight I was in paid First, and traveling with a friend as my seat mate. Yesterday, the 738 was near totally full (if not 100% full). I WANT UNITED TO MAKE MONEY, but it does seem like this one nonstop should upguage to a 752 or add a second (maybe E175?) flight? I am sure HQ is watching this closely, but what would be the better move? A larger single nonstop or a second frequency? (Depending on the day this nonstop has had a 739, 738, A320 or 73G)


The flight to MIA was most certainly not full in Y class (109/150 = 72.7% full), thus an upgauge wouldn't have been necessary. Trust when we say that Revenue Management, Airport Ops, Aircraft Routing, Crew Desk, and many other teams are watching all flights approaching 70% quite closely and will either upgauge or provide another closely departing flight when necessary. As an example, what used to be (for a short period) only 738s/9s plying between SFO-EWR have all now been upgauged to either 75/6/8 equipment.
 
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SQ22
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sat Jun 13, 2020 5:31 pm

For discussing travel regulations during COVID-19 for certain dates feel free to start a dedicated thread in Travel, Polls & Preferences Forum, but keep this thread on topic. Thanks.
 
VC10er
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sat Jun 13, 2020 6:22 pm

Judge1310 wrote:
VC10er wrote:

I’ve taken my 3rd flight on UA from EWR to MIA. Currently there is just one nonstop a day. (The second option has a stop in IAH, and costs much more than the nonstop)

I took these 3 flights over the past 3 weeks, each time UA has sent me an email saying “your flight is about 70% full, if you wish to rebook on another flight, no change fee will apply” - each flight I was in paid First, and traveling with a friend as my seat mate. Yesterday, the 738 was near totally full (if not 100% full). I WANT UNITED TO MAKE MONEY, but it does seem like this one nonstop should upguage to a 752 or add a second (maybe E175?) flight? I am sure HQ is watching this closely, but what would be the better move? A larger single nonstop or a second frequency? (Depending on the day this nonstop has had a 739, 738, A320 or 73G)


The flight to MIA was most certainly not full in Y class (109/150 = 72.7% full), thus an upgauge wouldn't have been necessary. Trust when we say that Revenue Management, Airport Ops, Aircraft Routing, Crew Desk, and many other teams are watching all flights approaching 70% quite closely and will either upgauge or provide another closely departing flight when necessary. As an example, what used to be (for a short period) only 738s/9s plying between SFO-EWR have all now been upgauged to either 75/6/8 equipment.



I am sure you are correct. The reason I “thought” the flight was “full” was due to the FA making several announcements as people were boarding “we have a very full flight today....” then the usual bit about bins and quickly taking your seat. I was in F, I never got up during the fight so I didn’t look back behind the curtain.

As I said, I’m certain UA is keeping a very close eye on every flight, but I was curious if UA would first upguage (IF OR WHEN) this one nonstop gets to the point where more seats are needed, or add a frequency? I just was curious what would be the wiser choice. (I admit I know nothing when it comes to these decisions!)
To Most the Sky is The Limit, For me, the Sky is Home.
 
Judge1310
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sat Jun 13, 2020 10:42 pm

VC10er wrote:
Judge1310 wrote:
VC10er wrote:

I’ve taken my 3rd flight on UA from EWR to MIA. Currently there is just one nonstop a day. (The second option has a stop in IAH, and costs much more than the nonstop)

I took these 3 flights over the past 3 weeks, each time UA has sent me an email saying “your flight is about 70% full, if you wish to rebook on another flight, no change fee will apply” - each flight I was in paid First, and traveling with a friend as my seat mate. Yesterday, the 738 was near totally full (if not 100% full). I WANT UNITED TO MAKE MONEY, but it does seem like this one nonstop should upguage to a 752 or add a second (maybe E175?) flight? I am sure HQ is watching this closely, but what would be the better move? A larger single nonstop or a second frequency? (Depending on the day this nonstop has had a 739, 738, A320 or 73G)


The flight to MIA was most certainly not full in Y class (109/150 = 72.7% full), thus an upgauge wouldn't have been necessary. Trust when we say that Revenue Management, Airport Ops, Aircraft Routing, Crew Desk, and many other teams are watching all flights approaching 70% quite closely and will either upgauge or provide another closely departing flight when necessary. As an example, what used to be (for a short period) only 738s/9s plying between SFO-EWR have all now been upgauged to either 75/6/8 equipment.



I am sure you are correct. The reason I “thought” the flight was “full” was due to the FA making several announcements as people were boarding “we have a very full flight today....” then the usual bit about bins and quickly taking your seat. I was in F, I never got up during the fight so I didn’t look back behind the curtain.

As I said, I’m certain UA is keeping a very close eye on every flight, but I was curious if UA would first upguage (IF OR WHEN) this one nonstop gets to the point where more seats are needed, or add a frequency? I just was curious what would be the wiser choice. (I admit I know nothing when it comes to these decisions!)


Very valid question! :) (and thanks to one of the mods for restoring this relevant line of topic)
Let's use the case of your flight to MIA -- I believe it was on a 738. In my experience I've seen frequencies added on routes between hubs and upgauges on spoke routes. Of course there exist many instances where that isn't the case but, if you think about it, adding a frequency between two hubs (e.g. SFO-IAH) allows the added equipment to be deployed somewhere else from the new hub. If we're talking about EWR-MIA, well the question then is, "Does demand on the flipside to justify extra equipment down there for the return?" Most likely not. In that case an upgauge would be more appropriate.
 
strfyr51
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sat Jun 13, 2020 11:58 pm

N649DL wrote:
codc10 wrote:
calpsafltskeds wrote:
The 76L is more premium heavy than the 752PW units with 64% more F seats and 15 fewer E+/Y seats (76L has 22 PP seats). I could see some use on Transcons, but the majority of use for the 76L would seems to be for LHR. If there is a demand drop TATL on LHR/other premium routes, maybe shifting a few of the 17 76Ls to Transcon could make sense and possibly increase utilization. Such a change could mean fewer 78X flights Transcon.
If N674UA gets Polaris, UA should consider changing the configuration from the planned 76L to the 30J configuration.


Don't quote me on this, but I would not be surprised if a lower J + PE LOPA is being studied if TATL premium demand stays in the tank and meaningful recovery is not predicted for more than a year. Something like 27J/18W/39Y+/138Y. I think it would make sense to reconfigure instead of flying around an airplane intended for a market which no longer exists.


IIRC, I thought they had plans to dump a handful of the 763ERs that never got Polaris conversions (a few ex-3 class variants even got the old sCO BF seat with completely new Y interiors installed but have no winglets). Perhaps now UA changed their mind and are keeping all the 763s variants around for a while?

Some 320s have rafts for EOW operations in the Caribbean but no ETOPS.

It's not like the A319's couldn't be certified for ETOPS. I don't think right now that any airline in the USA has ETOPS certified A319's.. But? I do not doubt it could be done, As the airplane could make it to Europe from the USA in off peak operations. And US east coast to Alaska. I have no idea who might do it though the A319-132's United bought from China Eastern have the power and range to BE ETOPS airplanes. but I doubt United would do it with the sheer number of ETOPS 737's they have already especially with the -9's waiting in the wings to return to service or to be delivered. I think that there might be a real Fire Sale happening when Boeing begins to deliver those MAX airplanes as many have already bowed out on their deliveries..[/quote]

Air Canada has been doing this for years with flying the A319 on St. John's (and perhaps YHZ) to LHR. I'll bet AA could try something like this as they tried some long hauls with their new 319 on DFW to South America like BOG, IIRC. I think their new L-AA 319 have some form of ETOPS, definitely not the ex-US ones though.[/quote]
the United A319-131's have transcon Range and the A319-132's have even more range than that with Beefier Engines. United didn't look all over the world to find Dogs. They couldn't have found a better off peak transcon Airplane.
 
N649DL
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sun Jun 14, 2020 12:08 am

strfyr51 wrote:
N649DL wrote:
codc10 wrote:

Don't quote me on this, but I would not be surprised if a lower J + PE LOPA is being studied if TATL premium demand stays in the tank and meaningful recovery is not predicted for more than a year. Something like 27J/18W/39Y+/138Y. I think it would make sense to reconfigure instead of flying around an airplane intended for a market which no longer exists.


IIRC, I thought they had plans to dump a handful of the 763ERs that never got Polaris conversions (a few ex-3 class variants even got the old sCO BF seat with completely new Y interiors installed but have no winglets). Perhaps now UA changed their mind and are keeping all the 763s variants around for a while?

Some 320s have rafts for EOW operations in the Caribbean but no ETOPS.

It's not like the A319's couldn't be certified for ETOPS. I don't think right now that any airline in the USA has ETOPS certified A319's.. But? I do not doubt it could be done, As the airplane could make it to Europe from the USA in off peak operations. And US east coast to Alaska. I have no idea who might do it though the A319-132's United bought from China Eastern have the power and range to BE ETOPS airplanes. but I doubt United would do it with the sheer number of ETOPS 737's they have already especially with the -9's waiting in the wings to return to service or to be delivered. I think that there might be a real Fire Sale happening when Boeing begins to deliver those MAX airplanes as many have already bowed out on their deliveries..


Air Canada has been doing this for years with flying the A319 on St. John's (and perhaps YHZ) to LHR. I'll bet AA could try something like this as they tried some long hauls with their new 319 on DFW to South America like BOG, IIRC. I think their new L-AA 319 have some form of ETOPS, definitely not the ex-US ones though.[/quote]
the United A319-131's have transcon Range and the A319-132's have even more range than that with Beefier Engines. United didn't look all over the world to find Dogs. They couldn't have found a better off peak transcon Airplane.[/quote]

I always thought a direct lie-flat J seat could be a fun solution on the A319. Not sure if EWR is ideal to deploy them from as it could probably only make SNN or DUB at the most.
 
strfyr51
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sun Jun 14, 2020 6:40 am

N649DL wrote:
strfyr51 wrote:
N649DL wrote:

IIRC, I thought they had plans to dump a handful of the 763ERs that never got Polaris conversions (a few ex-3 class variants even got the old sCO BF seat with completely new Y interiors installed but have no winglets). Perhaps now UA changed their mind and are keeping all the 763s variants around for a while?

Some 320s have rafts for EOW operations in the Caribbean but no ETOPS.

It's not like the A319's couldn't be certified for ETOPS. I don't think right now that any airline in the USA has ETOPS certified A319's.. But? I do not doubt it could be done, As the airplane could make it to Europe from the USA in off peak operations. And US east coast to Alaska. I have no idea who might do it though the A319-132's United bought from China Eastern have the power and range to BE ETOPS airplanes. but I doubt United would do it with the sheer number of ETOPS 737's they have already especially with the -9's waiting in the wings to return to service or to be delivered. I think that there might be a real Fire Sale happening when Boeing begins to deliver those MAX airplanes as many have already bowed out on their deliveries..

land
Air Canada has been doing this for years with flying the A319 on St. John's (and perhaps YHZ) to LHR. I'll bet AA could try something like this as they tried some long hauls with their new 319 on DFW to South America like BOG, IIRC. I think their new L-AA 319 have some form of ETOPS, definitely not the ex-US ones though.

the United A319-131's have transcon Range and the A319-132's have even more range than that with Beefier Engines. United didn't look all over the world to find Dogs. They couldn't have found a better off peak transcon Airplane.[/quote]We never

I always thought a direct lie-flat J seat could be a fun solution on the A319. Not sure if EWR is ideal to deploy them from as it could probably only make SNN or DUB at the most.[/quote]
How Off Peak would he flight have to be for it to make sense? EWR-LHR 0230 departure . IAD-LHR 0230 departure ORD-LHR 0130 Departure and it would never be in any real ETOPS situation as it would be over the far north Atlantic before it turned south into England. Otherwise? it would be over land most if the flight.. I already did this once while in the Navy where we led a flight of Marine A-6 intruders from California to Lossiemouth Scotland while we continued on to RAF Mildenhall. where we flew against a Russian Alpha Attack boat caught in a Fjord off the coast of Norway, We never Did find out why he was there, . But we harassed him until he left. We only went up there to gain a sound signature on that Type of boat because at the time, It was brand new to us and we needed to be able to identify the type, We got plenty of data, then went home and let the Norwegians and the Swiss beat up on him.. VP-24 and VP-45 caught him later that same year in the Laurentian Deep heading for Cuba ( the same canyons they referred to in the Hunt for Red October) Probably why I loved that movie though they know and We know they know we have Sosus Arrays listening to anybody that makes a run down those Canyons and I've been out of the Navy since 1977 So they've known an Long damn time.
Heck! they even managed to cut an ATT undersea Cable while Trying to attach their own sensors. I went to work for ATT in 1980 and I was a tech and Deck hand aboard one of the cable ships as a Gas Generator tech ans the ship was powered by 3 PWA J-52 jet engines, It was a great job with great pay except I stayed seasick as I was below decks in the engine room. I was ok above decks as long as I could see the sky, The job just wasn't for me.
 
rjbesikof
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Sun Jun 14, 2020 11:38 pm

Is UA still planning on doing a 1x weekly China flight? If so, from which hub?
 
sircygnus
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Mon Jun 15, 2020 2:34 pm

Does anyone have any insights as to when scheduling will start getting finalized further out? It seems as though United has been finalizing schedules about a month before (July's schedule finalized in June). I see two sides to what they are doing now. In one sense they are retaining flexibility should things get worse or better quickly (allowing them to adjust capacity) on the other hand I could see some travelers not wanting to deal with potential cancellations when booking >1.5 months out.
 
ericm2031
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Mon Jun 15, 2020 3:24 pm

sircygnus wrote:
Does anyone have any insights as to when scheduling will start getting finalized further out? It seems as though United has been finalizing schedules about a month before (July's schedule finalized in June). I see two sides to what they are doing now. In one sense they are retaining flexibility should things get worse or better quickly (allowing them to adjust capacity) on the other hand I could see some travelers not wanting to deal with potential cancellations when booking >1.5 months out.


They keep saying rolling 60-day window, but they don't seem to be updating it until more like 45 (or less) days out. Their reasoning has been, by leaving a full schedule published, they can see the true demand and then cut based on that. If they cut too early, it could cause customers to look elsewhere, which also gives them a false reading of demand, as you can't measure the lost business portion.
 
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janders
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Mon Jun 15, 2020 4:00 pm

rjbesikof wrote:
Is UA still planning on doing a 1x weekly China flight? If so, from which hub?


Yes, SFO
"We make war that we may live in peace." -- Aristotle
 
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LAXintl
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Mon Jun 15, 2020 4:01 pm

Regarding schedules here is statement they put out previously

Our full domestic schedule is currently for sale. That means we can measure demand based on actual bookings for that month. And, about 30-60 days in advance, we’ll make a decision about how much to reduce that schedule based on how many people have purchased tickets.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Mon Jun 15, 2020 4:08 pm

https://ir.united.com/static-files/1c0f ... 975348bab9

Details included in MileagePlus investor presentation:

48% of members live in hub markets
Image

Image

Operating expense, excluding special charges, in 2Q20 are expected to decline by ~53% YOY; operating expenses excluding specials, salaries and depreciation are expected to decline by ~72% in 2Q20 or $4.6B1

On track to achieve more than $2.5B of reductions in adjusted capital expenditures, bringing expected full-year adjusted capitalexpenditures to below $4.5B
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jayunited
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Mon Jun 15, 2020 4:14 pm

United has obtained a $5 billion dollar loan secured by our MileagePlus program. With this additional funding UA expects to have close to $17 billion dollars in liquidity by the end of Q3 2020. UA believes $17 billion will be enough to get us through until there is a vaccine and demand returns. In the same article on Flying Together UA gives it to employees straight by letting us know the loans will need to be repaid and although $17 billion dollars in liquidity sounds like a lot of money UA would be bankrupt in a matter of months if we do not continue to focus on lowering our cost this might include involuntary furloughs.

Since the Flying Together link only works for UA employees I will post a link from the The Points Guy for non-UA employees.
https://thepointsguy.com/news/united-ai ... irus-loan/

For an airline the size of UA to be prepared for the next crisis or pandemic, I think the new liquidity benchmark should be around $20 billion dollars. Would that be considered to much liquidity or not enough liquidity?
 
ericm2031
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Mon Jun 15, 2020 5:01 pm

Looks like they also issued a bunch more shares today:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.market ... E0AC267FEB
 
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LAXintl
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Mon Jun 15, 2020 5:07 pm

jayunited wrote:
United has obtained a $5 billion dollar loan secured by our MileagePlus program. With this additional funding UA expects to have close to $17 billion dollars in liquidity by the end of Q3 2020. UA believes $17 billion will be enough to get us through until there is a vaccine and demand returns. In the same article on Flying Together UA gives it to employees straight by letting us know the loans will need to be repaid and although $17 billion dollars in liquidity sounds like a lot of money UA would be bankrupt in a matter of months if we do not continue to focus on lowering our cost this might include involuntary furloughs.

Since the Flying Together link only works for UA employees I will post a link from the The Points Guy for non-UA employees.
https://thepointsguy.com/news/united-ai ... irus-loan/

For an airline the size of UA to be prepared for the next crisis or pandemic, I think the new liquidity benchmark should be around $20 billion dollars. Would that be considered to much liquidity or not enough liquidity?


:white: :white:

United has not obtained anything yet.

What they PROPOSE to do is:

1) Obtain $5.0bil financing with MileagePlus crown jewel as collateral
SEC Presentation: https://ir.united.com/static-files/fe7d ... 94398bd9fa

2) Issue 28,000,000 new shares
SEC Prospectus: https://ir.united.com/static-files/b400 ... fcdc165bf8

Neither of these have closed and so indicated by company filing.

In addition, United has plans to obtain a $4.5bil CARES loan.
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tphuang
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Mon Jun 15, 2020 5:12 pm

LAXintl wrote:
jayunited wrote:
United has obtained a $5 billion dollar loan secured by our MileagePlus program. With this additional funding UA expects to have close to $17 billion dollars in liquidity by the end of Q3 2020. UA believes $17 billion will be enough to get us through until there is a vaccine and demand returns. In the same article on Flying Together UA gives it to employees straight by letting us know the loans will need to be repaid and although $17 billion dollars in liquidity sounds like a lot of money UA would be bankrupt in a matter of months if we do not continue to focus on lowering our cost this might include involuntary furloughs.

Since the Flying Together link only works for UA employees I will post a link from the The Points Guy for non-UA employees.
https://thepointsguy.com/news/united-ai ... irus-loan/

For an airline the size of UA to be prepared for the next crisis or pandemic, I think the new liquidity benchmark should be around $20 billion dollars. Would that be considered to much liquidity or not enough liquidity?


:white: :white:

United has not obtained anything yet.

What they PROPOSE to do is:

1) Obtain $5.0bil financing with MileagePlus crown jewel as collateral
SEC Presentation: https://ir.united.com/static-files/fe7d ... 94398bd9fa

2) Issue 28,000,000 new shares
SEC Prospectus: https://ir.united.com/static-files/b400 ... fcdc165bf8

Neither of these have closed and so indicated by company filing.

In addition, United has plans to obtain a $4.5bil CARES loan.


Any idea what they are using for CARES loan if mileagplus is used as collateral for $5 billion in financing?
 
United1
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Mon Jun 15, 2020 5:19 pm

tphuang wrote:
LAXintl wrote:
jayunited wrote:
United has obtained a $5 billion dollar loan secured by our MileagePlus program. With this additional funding UA expects to have close to $17 billion dollars in liquidity by the end of Q3 2020. UA believes $17 billion will be enough to get us through until there is a vaccine and demand returns. In the same article on Flying Together UA gives it to employees straight by letting us know the loans will need to be repaid and although $17 billion dollars in liquidity sounds like a lot of money UA would be bankrupt in a matter of months if we do not continue to focus on lowering our cost this might include involuntary furloughs.

Since the Flying Together link only works for UA employees I will post a link from the The Points Guy for non-UA employees.
https://thepointsguy.com/news/united-ai ... irus-loan/

For an airline the size of UA to be prepared for the next crisis or pandemic, I think the new liquidity benchmark should be around $20 billion dollars. Would that be considered to much liquidity or not enough liquidity?


:white: :white:

United has not obtained anything yet.

What they PROPOSE to do is:

1) Obtain $5.0bil financing with MileagePlus crown jewel as collateral
SEC Presentation: https://ir.united.com/static-files/fe7d ... 94398bd9fa

2) Issue 28,000,000 new shares
SEC Prospectus: https://ir.united.com/static-files/b400 ... fcdc165bf8

Neither of these have closed and so indicated by company filing.

In addition, United has plans to obtain a $4.5bil CARES loan.


Any idea what they are using for CARES loan if mileagplus is used as collateral for $5 billion in financing?


Per UAs press release this morning they believe they have enough slots, gates and route authorities to use as collateral.

They also expect to be down to a $30 per day cash burn in Q3...so some progress compared to March.
Last edited by United1 on Mon Jun 15, 2020 5:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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UPlog
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Mon Jun 15, 2020 5:19 pm

jayunited wrote:
United has obtained a $5 billion dollar loan secured by our MileagePlus program. With this additional funding UA expects to have close to $17 billion dollars in liquidity by the end of Q3 2020. UA believes $17 billion will be enough to get us through until there is a vaccine and demand returns. In the same article on Flying Together UA gives it to employees straight by letting us know the loans will need to be repaid and although $17 billion dollars in liquidity sounds like a lot of money UA would be bankrupt in a matter of months if we do not continue to focus on lowering our cost this might include involuntary furloughs.

Since the Flying Together link only works for UA employees I will post a link from the The Points Guy for non-UA employees.
https://thepointsguy.com/news/united-ai ... irus-loan/

For an airline the size of UA to be prepared for the next crisis or pandemic, I think the new liquidity benchmark should be around $20 billion dollars. Would that be considered to much liquidity or not enough liquidity?


Suggest you re-read FT. Title of the story sent to me is "Proposed financing to be secured by MileagePlus"

Don't count the chickens before they hatch. Remember how UA's bond offering last month flopped.
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LAXintl
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Mon Jun 15, 2020 5:56 pm

Yes having lots of liquidity is good, but also let us remember its not free money, and needs to be repaid.
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AmricanShamrok
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Mon Jun 15, 2020 6:14 pm

It looks like UA is leaving SNN after 22 years of service. EWR-SNN will not resume in 2021 according to some media sources here.

http://www.clare.fm/news/calls-tougher- ... k-service/

At its peak, UA operated a daily year-round service on EWR-SNN, with double-daily service in the summer. The second summer flight was later switched to ORD-SNN.
 
Ishrion
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Mon Jun 15, 2020 6:24 pm

AmricanShamrok wrote:
It looks like UA is leaving SNN after 22 years of service. EWR-SNN will not resume in 2021 according to some media sources here.

http://www.clare.fm/news/calls-tougher- ... k-service/

At its peak, UA operated a daily year-round service on EWR-SNN, with double-daily service in the summer. The second summer flight was later switched to ORD-SNN.


That's interesting. Conversely, AA plans to upgauge from the 752 to the 788 on PHL-SNN because of their 757 retirement.
 
LAXdude1023
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Mon Jun 15, 2020 6:35 pm

AmricanShamrok wrote:
It looks like UA is leaving SNN after 22 years of service. EWR-SNN will not resume in 2021 according to some media sources here.

http://www.clare.fm/news/calls-tougher- ... k-service/

At its peak, UA operated a daily year-round service on EWR-SNN, with double-daily service in the summer. The second summer flight was later switched to ORD-SNN.


UA appears to be leaving MAN too. Insane.
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LAXintl
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Mon Jun 15, 2020 6:40 pm

Back in April United announced long list of international suspensions for the year including GLA, MAN, SNN, NCE, PMO, PRG, KEF, ARN, etc.

Hardly new news.
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AmricanShamrok
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Mon Jun 15, 2020 6:49 pm

LAXintl wrote:
Back in April United announced long list of international suspensions for the year including GLA, MAN, SNN, NCE, PMO, PRG, KEF, ARN, etc.

Hardly new news.

These were announced as seasonal suspensions with flights bookable again in 2021. Today's news is quite different; EWR-SNN is/will be permanently removed from sale.
 
LAXdude1023
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Mon Jun 15, 2020 6:51 pm

LAXintl wrote:
Back in April United announced long list of international suspensions for the year including GLA, MAN, SNN, NCE, PMO, PRG, KEF, ARN, etc.

Hardly new news.


It is considering that MAN is now gone for next spring into summer while GLA is still in the schedules. I get that a lot can happen between now and then, but the fact that MAN was already taken out of the schedule and its the most significant business destination of those makes it more noteworthy IMO.

Another thing I must admit I find interesting is that all of IAH-Europe is back in September except LHR. I wouldnt have pegged LHR as the weakest European station from IAH. Again I get that they could all be yanked again come August, but AMS wasnt supposed to come back until November and UA pulled it up to September. That must mean at least something.
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UPlog
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Mon Jun 15, 2020 7:27 pm

AmricanShamrok wrote:
These were announced as seasonal suspensions with flights bookable again in 2021. Today's news is quite different; EWR-SNN is/will be permanently removed from sale.


United just carried its base schedule forward. Don't read too much into it. Better not show flight than take bookings to only have to reaccomodate.

LAXdude1023 wrote:
It is considering that MAN is now gone for next spring into summer while GLA is still in the schedules. I get that a lot can happen between now and then, but the fact that MAN was already taken out of the schedule and its the most significant business destination of those makes it more noteworthy IMO.

Another thing I must admit I find interesting is that all of IAH-Europe is back in September except LHR. I wouldnt have pegged LHR as the weakest European station from IAH. Again I get that they could all be yanked again come August, but AMS wasnt supposed to come back until November and UA pulled it up to September. That must mean at least something.


United just released its July schedule. August is not complete let alone Sept.

UK demand certainly will take a hit with the mandatory 14-day quarantine so LHR demand take further hit.
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LAXdude1023
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Mon Jun 15, 2020 7:47 pm

UPlog wrote:
AmricanShamrok wrote:
These were announced as seasonal suspensions with flights bookable again in 2021. Today's news is quite different; EWR-SNN is/will be permanently removed from sale.


United just carried its base schedule forward. Don't read too much into it. Better not show flight than take bookings to only have to reaccomodate.

LAXdude1023 wrote:
It is considering that MAN is now gone for next spring into summer while GLA is still in the schedules. I get that a lot can happen between now and then, but the fact that MAN was already taken out of the schedule and its the most significant business destination of those makes it more noteworthy IMO.

Another thing I must admit I find interesting is that all of IAH-Europe is back in September except LHR. I wouldnt have pegged LHR as the weakest European station from IAH. Again I get that they could all be yanked again come August, but AMS wasnt supposed to come back until November and UA pulled it up to September. That must mean at least something.


United just released its July schedule. August is not complete let alone Sept.

UK demand certainly will take a hit with the mandatory 14-day quarantine so LHR demand take further hit.


Heres why I do read a little more into it:

1) If they are already cancelling flights for next April, its probably safe to say they arent coming back. Otherwise it would probably only be cancelled a few months out at most.

2) UA had cancelled IAH-AMS until November. They moved it up to September along with a few other routes. That would indicate there is some demand returning more quickly than originally thought. The wouldnt really have anything to gain from cancelling a route until a specified date only to move it up.
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UPlog
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Mon Jun 15, 2020 8:02 pm

IAH-AMS is being flown as cargo today, so it might as well add pax to it. LHR is not a cargo route from IAH.
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jayunited
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Mon Jun 15, 2020 8:10 pm

LAXdude1023 wrote:
Another thing I must admit I find interesting is that all of IAH-Europe is back in September except LHR. I wouldnt have pegged LHR as the weakest European station from IAH. Again I get that they could all be yanked again come August, but AMS wasnt supposed to come back until November and UA pulled it up to September. That must mean at least something.


The 14 day mandatory quarantine is killing demand to LHR. Prior to its implementation UA on both EWR/ORD-LHR had decent load factors, after the mandatory quarantine demand dropped. But on the flip side UA has seen an increase in demand on our EWR/IAD-FRA flights and SFO-FRA just resumed 3x weekly service.

If not for cargo I don't think UA would be operating ORD-LHR at this time because the passenger traffic simply isn't there. The only reason UA is utilizing 78Xs on both routes is to accommodate cargo.
 
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LAXintl
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Mon Jun 15, 2020 9:01 pm

Now is not the time for interpreting the tea leaves when it comes to future international schedules.
Almost everything is day-to-day currently with lots of big decisions yet to be made. Two bigger ones pending internationally are what happens with markets like the Haneda award and also all the W20 IATA slot holdings as usage waivers expire October 24th. Summer 2021 is still a millennium away as problems go.
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ordbosewr
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Mon Jun 15, 2020 9:50 pm

ordbosewr wrote:
LAXintl wrote:
It seems many are forgetting how serious things are across the global economy and what airlines are truly facing.

Look back at 2008-2009 downturn and you'll see how hard travel was hit. A seemingly small 13.1% decline in U.S. corporate travel led to 144,000 airline and support job losses with billions in red ink that took a good half-decade plus to dig out of.

Today we are looking at a situation corporate travel virtually having come to a halt entirely with a global recession around us. The magnitude of this hit is far worse than 2008-2009, so the idea that an airline will only be back to 70% capacity in 2021 is actually pretty optimistic in my view. Personally I see an even smaller industry so long as people's health cannot be assured and we must operate under various restrictions globally that will slow consumer activity and high-value corporate travel which is critical for legacy operators.


I can not agree more with this perspective. Speaking as person in corporate america with a large group of folks that do alot of travel. Very little of those folks are traveling. For this to happen, offices must open. We have to have our offices open, we need our customers offices to open. Once they are open then we can start to have a debate if and how in-person meetings will be conducted.
I can tell you that so far, we have not see any definitive direction on what my company expects and what it will look like.
Even if we had all of these answers travel is not going to start overnight. It will take time.
I am not even talking about international business travel, I am focused on domestic.


behind a pay-wall, but WSJ had a article on business travel.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/business-t ... lista_pos1

They are saying that some business travel may never return..... that is scary, the question is how much of this will really happen...
 
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LAXintl
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Tue Jun 16, 2020 12:02 am

Per DOT filing, both DL and UA received authorization for 2x weekly service from Chinese authorities as of June 12th.
Prob finally see the resumption of SFO-PVG pax service finally.
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VC10er
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Tue Jun 16, 2020 3:01 am

Judge1310 wrote:
VC10er wrote:
Judge1310 wrote:

The flight to MIA was most certainly not full in Y class (109/150 = 72.7% full), thus an upgauge wouldn't have been necessary. Trust when we say that Revenue Management, Airport Ops, Aircraft Routing, Crew Desk, and many other teams are watching all flights approaching 70% quite closely and will either upgauge or provide another closely departing flight when necessary. As an example, what used to be (for a short period) only 738s/9s plying between SFO-EWR have all now been upgauged to either 75/6/8 equipment.



I am sure you are correct. The reason I “thought” the flight was “full” was due to the FA making several announcements as people were boarding “we have a very full flight today....” then the usual bit about bins and quickly taking your seat. I was in F, I never got up during the fight so I didn’t look back behind the curtain.

As I said, I’m certain UA is keeping a very close eye on every flight, but I was curious if UA would first upguage (IF OR WHEN) this one nonstop gets to the point where more seats are needed, or add a frequency? I just was curious what would be the wiser choice. (I admit I know nothing when it comes to these decisions!)


Very valid question! :) (and thanks to one of the mods for restoring this relevant line of topic)
Let's use the case of your flight to MIA -- I believe it was on a 738. In my experience I've seen frequencies added on routes between hubs and upgauges on spoke routes. Of course there exist many instances where that isn't the case but, if you think about it, adding a frequency between two hubs (e.g. SFO-IAH) allows the added equipment to be deployed somewhere else from the new hub. If we're talking about EWR-MIA, well the question then is, "Does demand on the flipside to justify extra equipment down there for the return?" Most likely not. In that case an upgauge would be more appropriate.


Yes, it was certainly a 737-800. I find that version of the First Class seat almost as uncomfortable as a slimline!
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UPlog
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Tue Jun 16, 2020 3:28 pm

Interesting article how behind scene finances work in a mileage program. Also est valuation of MileagePlus is $22bil.

https://skift.com/2020/06/15/how-is-uni ... 2-billion/
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LAXintl
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Tue Jun 16, 2020 3:49 pm

Of course that valuation is more a self made one and certainly one that degrades the longer this downturn last as program participation and miles churning is at reduced level.
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atcsundevil
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Tue Jun 16, 2020 11:46 pm

The fleet changes, fleet status, and repaint status posts at the start of this thread have been updated.

There is also a post dedicated to keeping track of stored mainline aircraft.

✈️ atcsundevil
 
flyer56
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Wed Jun 17, 2020 4:48 am

LAXintl wrote:
Per DOT filing, both DL and UA received authorization for 2x weekly service from Chinese authorities as of June 12th.
Prob finally see the resumption of SFO-PVG pax service finally.


News from China is UA resuming twice weekly PVG-SFO from Jul 6, DL is doing PVG-SEA twice weekly 1-2 weeks earlier, forgot the exact date. We'll see if this is right.
 
flyer56
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Wed Jun 17, 2020 4:53 am

flyer56 wrote:
LAXintl wrote:
Per DOT filing, both DL and UA received authorization for 2x weekly service from Chinese authorities as of June 12th.
Prob finally see the resumption of SFO-PVG pax service finally.


News from China is UA resuming twice weekly PVG-SFO from Jul 6, DL is doing PVG-SEA twice weekly 1-2 weeks earlier, forgot the exact date. We'll see if this is right.


Also reported the UA flight will stopover in ICN for a crew change who will same day turnaround to ICN. But I am wondering if they got UA confused with DL.
 
FlyHossD
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Wed Jun 17, 2020 7:40 am

flyer56 wrote:
Also reported the UA flight will stopover in ICN for a crew change who will same day turnaround to ICN. But I am wondering if they got UA confused with DL.


Apparently so. From my friends at UA, according to an ALPA email, the UA flights will stop in NRT, then another crew will fly NRT-China-NRT to be replaced by another crew flying NRT-SFO.

We shall see very soon, won't we?
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LAXintl
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Wed Jun 17, 2020 6:23 pm

Effective Monday, United removed from NASDAQ 100 benchmark index and replaced by DocuSign. United long term stock collapse obviously led to its removal.

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/doc ... united-air
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adamblang
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Wed Jun 17, 2020 11:55 pm

An article on United's A321XLR order, but no real news: https://simpleflying.com/united-new-air ... xlr-fleet/

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