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onwFan
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 4:43 pm

jayunited wrote:
Cointrin330 wrote:
MEL is an interesting one. If UA consolidates the Melbourne service to SFO, they will compete directly with QF, which they do already on SYD, although not right now, as QF is not flying overseas. At LAX, if and when MEL resumes, it will be about the same in terms of competitive dynamic, since Virgin Australia is in reorganization and off the market so perhaps a split operation by UA between LAX and SFO to MEL will remain in place. Not sure about HND. Did UA get a slot for it?



UA was awarded EWR, IAD, ORD and LAX back in 2019. The plan was LAX and EWR would serve both NRT and HND, while ORD and IAD would shift over to HND service only. As far as I know that is still the plan I just haven't heard when UA intends to launch EWR, LAX, and IAD - HND service. Of course I'm not expecting any of those announcements to come any time soon but at the same time I do know UA is not walking away from HND or Tokyo in general.

tphuang wrote:
I would be very surprised if UA's pre-COVID LAX LH international schedule comes back in tact. I remember Kirby said that they closed the widebody bases because he doesn't see LH flying out of there anytime soon. Or something to that affect. It shouldn't have really surprised anyone that AA would cut back on LAX, so I'm surprised that UA management was caught off guard by that. Keep in mind with AS partnership, OW carriers would still be the largest force at LAX. By next summer, UA would be much smaller vs pre-COVID and international demand will still be very low. I can't see NRT or MEL coming back at all. I think it would be crazy to bring PVG back. Given AS's expected cuts at SFO, UA's best bet is to bring back its SFO hub to full capacity first. Duking it out at LAX seems to be very unwise.


The thing people keep getting wrong about UA at LAX is UA transitioned LAX into an O&D hub some years back. With the exception of LAX-MEL most of our international and domestic flights were filled with O&D passengers very few connectors. LAX-Tokyo is a huge O&D market UA is not walking away from this market and UA is not giving up a HND slot. LAX-PVG is set to resume in October although service is less than daily. I expect LAX-LHR will probably be back up and flying in time for IATA spring 2021 provided UA can get a dormancy extension. And even if we are denied an extension LHR slots are so valuable I don't see UA giving walking away from that slot. We know know LAX-SYD is coming back this fall at 3x weekly (AA isn't resuming service until spring 2021). LAX-SYD is an interesting route because this route clearly suffered when UA launched IAH-SYD. IAH-SYD O&D market is minuscule compared to LAX-SYD so UA pushed a ton of connections from the Atlantic to the Rockies through IAH. But it wasn't all bad news, yields out of IAH were much better than they were out of LAX where at one point roundtrip coach tickets cost less than $700 dollars. Whereas through IAH even on a connecting flight ticket prices were over $1100 dollars in coach. If UA has decided to bring back one of its weakest performers (LAX-SYD) then NRT, PVG, and LHR all of which were much stronger performers will be back in time. The difference is those routes depended more heavily on corporate O&D travel while SYD and MEL catered to more leisure travelers. LAX-MEL was probably around 65% connectors 35% O&D which isn't great but we were competing against QF and VA. When UA launched SFO-MEL we still pushed most of the connecting traffic through LAX especially during the busy season(December-February) when we were running LAX-MEL daily and SFO-MEL 3x weekly. It is my understanding yields were much higher out of SFO. In fact before COVID SFO-MEL was slated to resume in late October of this year although now that probably isn't going to happen. I think the earliest we will see UA return to MEL will be October 2021 and I'm not convinced LAX-MEL will come back I think UA may move the route to SFO and make it daily year round.

People have taken the base closure to mean UA is totally walking away from long haul flights out of LAX and that simply isn't true. Lastly people really have to stop comparing AA to UA that was another issue made clear on the call yesterday stop comparing UA to AA and instead try to understand that these are two completely different airlines with completely different networks. Even UA employees (myself included) continue to make that mistake and we have to stop and learn to look at each airline separately. While UA may not be looking to capitalize on AA's slight reduction at LAX it doesn't mean UA is throwing in the towel on international long haul service from LAX either. In my opinion it does seem like UA was caught off guard by AA's moves at LAX and it does seem like UA has a solid plan for every hub expect LAX, one thing that was made clear is LAX remains a UA hub and an important part in our network.

I tend to agree with this. I have no doubt that UA will fly LAX-LHR/HND and a combination of SYD/MEL. I am only doubtful about one thing: Is there going to be sufficient demand to be flying LAX/EWR-NRT on top of LAX/EWR-HND, when NH already served JFK/LAX-NRT on its metal? As much as UA felt it could add capacity at that time, I doubt the current conditions actually make sense for that; especially when all the carriers have to try hard to even use all their HND slots. TYO-USA is going to be a bloodbath.
 
MAH4546
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Re: United plans Chicago to Tel Aviv

Tue Jul 07, 2020 4:58 pm

Not a charter but this is being launched primarily for cargo demand. UA will offer passenger tickets though. Same with LAXSYD early relaunch and ORDHKG. Passenger demand isn’t great but they flights can be profitable as cargo services.
a.
 
behramjee
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Re: United plans Chicago to Tel Aviv

Tue Jul 07, 2020 5:22 pm

This is a good P2P market with 101,000 pax flying it round trip in 2019 paying US$ 600 one way with YQ included. Plus they will get feed for all over USA via the mega ORD hub. P2P market demand in 2019 grew by +11% versus 2018 too though obviously in current scenario that wont be the case.

Article says 3 weekly nonstop flights using a B789.
 
CriticalPoint
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 9:00 pm

codc10 wrote:
Wasn't the LAX787 domicile closure put on (temporary?) hold? Or am I thinking about ORD?


Yes LAX was kept open for Cargo.....with the resumption of SYD I suspect it will stay open......however that will through a massive wrench in crew planning a recent displacement bids. They may close it then rebid it open. It’s really the only way they can do it without causing problems.

ORD HKG swing on the 777 is in the same boat.....the situation is SO dynamic
Last edited by CriticalPoint on Tue Jul 07, 2020 9:01 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 9:00 pm

United pulled their August schedule and will only operate 35% capacity. The biggest cuts come from EWR.
 
AA94
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 9:37 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
United pulled their August schedule and will only operate 35% capacity. The biggest cuts come from EWR.


This was also telegraphed on the call yesterday. When the previous August schedule was built, we were seeing building demand -- slowly, but building nonetheless. The latest wave of COVID spikes combined with the NY/NJ/CT quarantine have caused demand to plateau a bit, so we're walking back some of those adds. Would rather conserve the cash than fly around empty airplanes.
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 9:45 pm

AA94 wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
United pulled their August schedule and will only operate 35% capacity. The biggest cuts come from EWR.


This was also telegraphed on the call yesterday. When the previous August schedule was built, we were seeing building demand -- slowly, but building nonetheless. The latest wave of COVID spikes combined with the NY/NJ/CT quarantine have caused demand to plateau a bit, so we're walking back some of those adds. Would rather conserve the cash than fly around empty airplanes.


It’s also interesting UA is planning at staying at 35% through the end of 2020... It is not going to be good if AA and DL are running 50%+ and UA is stuck at 35. I’m suspecting this will change.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 9:50 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
AA94 wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
United pulled their August schedule and will only operate 35% capacity. The biggest cuts come from EWR.


This was also telegraphed on the call yesterday. When the previous August schedule was built, we were seeing building demand -- slowly, but building nonetheless. The latest wave of COVID spikes combined with the NY/NJ/CT quarantine have caused demand to plateau a bit, so we're walking back some of those adds. Would rather conserve the cash than fly around empty airplanes.


It’s also interesting UA is planning at staying at 35% through the end of 2020... It is not going to be good if AA and DL are running 50%+ and UA is stuck at 35. I’m suspecting this will change.


DL/AA are likely going to decrease after July/early August.

I know Ed said back in May/early June that they would likely not add any capacity after August, and if they did it would likely be from removing their middle seat restriction.
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tphuang
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Tue Jul 07, 2020 10:02 pm

I would be very surprised if AA/DL don't cut back August further at this point. Not just AA/DL, but all the other carriers too. B6 has to be adjusting its schedule with NY/NJ to Florida in the dumpsters. NK/F9 has to be doing less flying in August with same problem. Maybe WN will be the only one willing to fly empty planes around.

Of course, I would say that UA is uniquely hurt by reduced demand due to its reliance on coastal hubs and international travel. So people should be mindful of that when looking at their operating capacity.
 
EssentialBusDC
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 08, 2020 12:25 am

CriticalPoint wrote:
codc10 wrote:
Wasn't the LAX787 domicile closure put on (temporary?) hold? Or am I thinking about ORD?


Yes LAX was kept open for Cargo.....with the resumption of SYD I suspect it will stay open......however that will through a massive wrench in crew planning a recent displacement bids. They may close it then rebid it open. It’s really the only way they can do it without causing problems.

ORD HKG swing on the 777 is in the same boat.....the situation is SO dynamic


Even if the close it, then reopen it, all those original LAX 787 pilots displaced from the closing have grandfather rights for 120 days from the effective date of the closing (first effective date was June 30th). So really no point in closing then to reopen. Just keep it open, and if staffing needs to be higher then it is currently for the cargo flying, allow however many additional pilots are needed with grandfather rights who were displaced back in (if they want).

ORD is slightly different as there is no other 777 flying planned. ORD HKG is not a FRMS route so it could be flown as a W by a different base. LAX-SYD can not since its an FRMS route.

But yes everything is changing so quickly who knows what things will be like in 4 months.
 
Ishrion
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 08, 2020 12:27 am

United's flights bound for Sydney will be capped at 50 passengers:

https://twitter.com/BrianSumers/status/ ... 8922534913
 
ericm2031
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 08, 2020 1:13 am

Ishrion wrote:
United's flights bound for Sydney will be capped at 50 passengers:

https://twitter.com/BrianSumers/status/ ... 8922534913


Only until 7/16, and none of the flights are booked over 50 between now and then.
 
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LAXintl
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 08, 2020 1:37 am

United 8K filing today gives insight to booking trends. Heading wrong way. NYC in particular took a hit with the 14-day arrival quarantine.

Image
https://ibb.co/R7rgvj5][img]https://i.ibb.co/b7w6Wbf/UAL1.png

Image
https://ibb.co/Pj8gn7T][img]https://i.ibb.co/fF7H5h8/UAL2.png
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Judge1310
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 08, 2020 1:45 am

LAXintl wrote:
United 8K filing today gives insight to booking trends. Heading wrong way. NYC in particular took a hit with the 14-day arrival quarantine.

Image
https://ibb.co/R7rgvj5][img]https://i.ibb.co/b7w6Wbf/UAL1.png

Image
https://ibb.co/Pj8gn7T][img]https://i.ibb.co/fF7H5h8/UAL2.png


They *literally* said in the call to not share information externally, yet here you are, posting actual charts from presentation...
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 08, 2020 1:51 am

Judge1310 wrote:
LAXintl wrote:
United 8K filing today gives insight to booking trends. Heading wrong way. NYC in particular took a hit with the 14-day arrival quarantine.

Image
https://ibb.co/R7rgvj5][img]https://i.ibb.co/b7w6Wbf/UAL1.png

Image
https://ibb.co/Pj8gn7T][img]https://i.ibb.co/fF7H5h8/UAL2.png


They *literally* said in the call to not share information externally, yet here you are, posting actual charts from presentation...


This info was all over twitter before so someone posting it in this small forum is nothing.
 
Ishrion
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 08, 2020 1:52 am

Judge1310 wrote:

They *literally* said in the call to not share information externally, yet here you are, posting actual charts from presentation...


Well... it's kinda public now?

https://twitter.com/e_russell/status/12 ... 1584290817

https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/ed ... 9d1_8k.htm

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data ... ex99-1.htm
 
ordbosewr
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 08, 2020 1:52 am

Judge1310 wrote:
LAXintl wrote:
United 8K filing today gives insight to booking trends. Heading wrong way. NYC in particular took a hit with the 14-day arrival quarantine.

Image
https://ibb.co/R7rgvj5][img]https://i.ibb.co/b7w6Wbf/UAL1.png

Image
https://ibb.co/Pj8gn7T][img]https://i.ibb.co/fF7H5h8/UAL2.png


They *literally* said in the call to not share information externally, yet here you are, posting actual charts from presentation...


He is posting content that was shared with the SEC, so it is public info. Edit the first post to BOLD the point he made.

All I did was go to United investor relations and looked up the 8K from today and there are those 2 charts, plus a couple more he did not post.
 
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UPlog
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 08, 2020 1:54 am

Judge1310 wrote:
They *literally* said in the call to not share information externally, yet here you are, posting actual charts from presentation...


You realize its all available in a SEC filing which is very much public information. :old:

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data ... -index.htm
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dmstorm22
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 08, 2020 1:56 am

Judge1310 wrote:
LAXintl wrote:
United 8K filing today gives insight to booking trends. Heading wrong way. NYC in particular took a hit with the 14-day arrival quarantine.

Image
https://ibb.co/R7rgvj5][img]https://i.ibb.co/b7w6Wbf/UAL1.png

Image
https://ibb.co/Pj8gn7T][img]https://i.ibb.co/fF7H5h8/UAL2.png


They *literally* said in the call to not share information externally, yet here you are, posting actual charts from presentation...


I'm no insider and can't speak to any call BUT.....

I can literally go to United Investor Relations this second and pull up the 8K filing with this exact chart
 
MIflyer12
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 08, 2020 2:05 am

LAXintl wrote:
United 8K filing today gives insight to booking trends. Heading wrong way. NYC in particular took a hit with the 14-day arrival quarantine.

Image
https://ibb.co/R7rgvj5][img]https://i.ibb.co/b7w6Wbf/UAL1.png

Image
https://ibb.co/Pj8gn7T][img]https://i.ibb.co/fF7H5h8/UAL2.png

Revenues down a lot more than domestic passenger counts. This is a very difficult fare environment. IIRC, Delta leads off industry earnings reports 7/14.
 
ericm2031
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 08, 2020 4:04 am

Demand being down is one thing, but fares are starting to drop to historically low levels...$25 fares on 3 hour flights. I haven't seen UA drop quite that low, but not far off. I've seen AA and B6 doing it on multiple city pairs though with that stage length.
 
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cosyr
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 08, 2020 3:39 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
AA94 wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
United pulled their August schedule and will only operate 35% capacity. The biggest cuts come from EWR.


This was also telegraphed on the call yesterday. When the previous August schedule was built, we were seeing building demand -- slowly, but building nonetheless. The latest wave of COVID spikes combined with the NY/NJ/CT quarantine have caused demand to plateau a bit, so we're walking back some of those adds. Would rather conserve the cash than fly around empty airplanes.


It’s also interesting UA is planning at staying at 35% through the end of 2020... It is not going to be good if AA and DL are running 50%+ and UA is stuck at 35. I’m suspecting this will change.

UA was hit hard early in this crisis, because of their larger Int'l market share, and EWR because of NYC's epidemic center, but AA and DL will be effected more in the coming months by those centers shifting South. DL in ATL, and even moreso AA in DFW, MIA and PHX may see some serious demand drops. Yes, UA will be effected in IAH, but having been more conservative all along, probably won't shift things as much.
 
panamair
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 08, 2020 3:53 pm

So United supposedly warned about needing to potentially lay off up to 45% of the workforce today:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/united-e ... 51961.html

They say that 3,700 have taken the packages, but they may still need to let go of up to 15000 flight attendants, 11000 ground staff, 2250 pilots, and 5500 maintenance positions...the proportions look off here.... Why do they need to let go of so many flight attendants especially when compared to ground staff? Did not as many FAs take the packages?
 
MIflyer12
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 08, 2020 4:38 pm

Reuters points out it's 15,000 of 25,000 FAs. What's the ground staff count at present?

The furlough warnings vary by work group, with about 15,000 of the total roughly 25,000 flight attendants set to receive notifications, United said.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... 492IG?il=0

It's the depth of the skill set, and difficulty to replace/train personnel, that will protect some crafts more than others.

Reuters also notes UA cash burn is $40 million a day.
 
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LAXintl
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 08, 2020 4:47 pm

Sobering cuts, but that's reality when airline at best will be 40-50% of size this winter and 70-80% next summer.

Obviously painful, but dragging things out only makes it worse as cost and debt meter run.

So lets rip the bandaid off and move forward with whatever restructuring is needed to help reposition the company to survive and be ready to grow again when circumstances permit.
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alfa164
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 08, 2020 6:54 pm

LAXintl wrote:
Sobering cuts, but that's reality when airline at best will be 40-50% of size this winter and 70-80% next summer. Obviously painful, but dragging things out only makes it worse as cost and debt meter run. So lets rip the bandaid off and move forward with whatever restructuring is needed to help reposition the company to survive and be ready to grow again when circumstances permit.


October 1st... barely one month before the elections in the USA. I would be willing to bet the Washington politicians all come up with another airline bail-out agreement before that deadline.
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jfklganyc
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 08, 2020 7:24 pm

alfa164 wrote:
LAXintl wrote:
Sobering cuts, but that's reality when airline at best will be 40-50% of size this winter and 70-80% next summer. Obviously painful, but dragging things out only makes it worse as cost and debt meter run. So lets rip the bandaid off and move forward with whatever restructuring is needed to help reposition the company to survive and be ready to grow again when circumstances permit.


October 1st... barely one month before the elections in the USA. I would be willing to bet the Washington politicians all come up with another airline bail-out agreement before that deadline.


They can’t

No airline will except those terms again

They are bleeding money keeping unneeded employees around.
 
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UPlog
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 08, 2020 7:26 pm

alfa164 wrote:

October 1st... barely one month before the elections in the USA. I would be willing to bet the Washington politicians all come up with another airline bail-out agreement before that deadline.


The government can help out those employees impacted directly via UI or other programs, and not just throw money in a roundabout fashion at companies be it airlines, restaurants, hotels, or manufacturers.

Also lets remember the CARES money actually is creating a deeper hole at the airlines as the funding is not a 1:1 labor cost recovery. Companies need to be able to make changes to adapt to new realities which means far smaller workforces.
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jayunited
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 08, 2020 9:37 pm

alfa164 wrote:
October 1st... barely one month before the elections in the USA. I would be willing to bet the Washington politicians all come up with another airline bail-out agreement before that deadline.



I wouldn't bet on that if I were you, even with a presidential election a little over a month away I think come October 1st airlines are on their own. The reason I've changed by position is because most businesses whose business existed to support the airline industry have already laid off the necessary employees. Think about it and I'll just use catering operations or the flight kitchens as an example, airlines have already scaled down their operations in terms of onboard service. From coast to coast tens of thousands of kitchen employees who cater flights for both domestic and international carriers have already been let go. I think come October there will probably be 100,000-120,000 airlines employees here in the US out of a job, but employees in the supporting roles have already been let go. I don't see Trump and the Republican controlled Senate doing another bail-out because it will only delay the inevitable. Also I don't think airlines want more CARES Act because the first CARES Act didn't cover 100% of the payroll. Take United as an example our CARES Act funds were more than a billion dollars short of covering 100% of the payroll for these 6 months. I think they want they want to get this over with so they can begin moving forward with the recovery.

I hope to see UA's numbers come down (36,000 is a lot and I know it is worst case scenario) but with UA saying we may hold capacity around 35%-40% for the remainder of the year, I think it is becoming clear that by summer 2020 we may be back around 65%-70% of pre-COVID.
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 08, 2020 10:00 pm

I’m hearing all HKG routes are gone. Anyone have any clarity on this?
 
Ishrion
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 08, 2020 10:10 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
I’m hearing all HKG routes are gone. Anyone have any clarity on this?


Not much more info, but something like this: https://twitter.com/UAL756/status/1280963067258507265
 
MIflyer12
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 08, 2020 10:24 pm

From today's 8-K filing:

The COVID-19 pandemic is an act of nature and is a circumstance beyond the Company's control, which is further compounded by governmental restrictions on travel and stay-at-home orders that have substantially reduced bookings and the demand for airline travel, resulting in the temporary grounding of a substantial number of the Company's aircraft.

That's how lawyers start to craft an argument for force majeure.

This, too, is ominous:

At this time, the Company is unable to in good faith make a determination of an estimate or range of estimates required by paragraphs (b), (c) and (d) of
Item 2.05 of Form 8-K with respect to workforce reduction actions in the remainder of 2020. The Company will file an amendment to this report after it
makes a determination of such estimate or range of estimates.


An estimate of year-end headcount was required by the enabling legislation for the round of loans that Treasury announced had been approved for UA and other carriers.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/tr ... story.html
 
kiowa
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Re: United plans Chicago to Tel Aviv

Wed Jul 08, 2020 10:49 pm

MAH4546 wrote:
Not a charter but this is being launched primarily for cargo demand. UA will offer passenger tickets though. Same with LAXSYD early relaunch and ORDHKG. Passenger demand isn’t great but they flights can be profitable as cargo services.


I wonder if the ord/hkg will be dumped again with the chaos in Hkg escalating.
 
jayunited
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 08, 2020 11:08 pm

Ishrion wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
I’m hearing all HKG routes are gone. Anyone have any clarity on this?


Not much more info, but something like this: https://twitter.com/UAL756/status/1280963067258507265



Not a lot of information available internally either but UA today has canceled all HKG flights both passenger and cargo. The only thing I could find internally was flights canceled do to a change in COVID restrictions implemented at HKG. Based on what was posted on twitter it seems like China is taking more control of Hong Kong and is now requiring all inbound flight crews to be tested by Chinese officials. If what was posted on twitter is correct both ALPA and UA have made the right decision, it will be interesting to see what UA comes up with because Hong Kong is one of our most profitable cargo charter flights.
 
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UPlog
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Wed Jul 08, 2020 11:28 pm

Nothing to do with China. HKG airport since back in April has performed antigen test used to detect the presence of Covid19. From what I gather union has recommended pilots decline what they believe is a too invasive test (a throat saliva sample).
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Kbud
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Re: United plans Chicago to Tel Aviv

Wed Jul 08, 2020 11:48 pm

kiowa wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:
Not a charter but this is being launched primarily for cargo demand. UA will offer passenger tickets though. Same with LAXSYD early relaunch and ORDHKG. Passenger demand isn’t great but they flights can be profitable as cargo services.


I wonder if the ord/hkg will be dumped again with the chaos in Hkg escalating.

I think this is more cargo than passenger driven. If it was solely passenger driven it wouldn’t be on UA’s largest plane (77W) and only one flight per week.
 
ORD Boy 2
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Re: United plans Chicago to Tel Aviv

Thu Jul 09, 2020 12:01 am

 
StinkyPinky
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 09, 2020 12:09 am

Ouch. Apparently the the most senior FA to receive a WARN notice has a DOH Nov 9th, 1996.
 
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atcsundevil
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 09, 2020 12:53 am

jayunited wrote:
I wouldn't bet on that if I were you, even with a presidential election a little over a month away I think come October 1st airlines are on their own. The reason I've changed by position is because most businesses whose business existed to support the airline industry have already laid off the necessary employees. Think about it and I'll just use catering operations or the flight kitchens as an example, airlines have already scaled down their operations in terms of onboard service. From coast to coast tens of thousands of kitchen employees who cater flights for both domestic and international carriers have already been let go. I think come October there will probably be 100,000-120,000 airlines employees here in the US out of a job, but employees in the supporting roles have already been let go. I don't see Trump and the Republican controlled Senate doing another bail-out because it will only delay the inevitable. Also I don't think airlines want more CARES Act because the first CARES Act didn't cover 100% of the payroll. Take United as an example our CARES Act funds were more than a billion dollars short of covering 100% of the payroll for these 6 months. I think they want they want to get this over with so they can begin moving forward with the recovery.

I hope to see UA's numbers come down (36,000 is a lot and I know it is worst case scenario) but with UA saying we may hold capacity around 35%-40% for the remainder of the year, I think it is becoming clear that by summer 2020 we may be back around 65%-70% of pre-COVID.

I agree. There will certainly be considerations for November in mind, but ultimately airlines can only kick the can so far down the road. Some airlines may try to stave off the inevitable for as long as possible, but it appears that United is taking the more rational approach (albeit potentially more pessimistic). At this point, airlines need to be more concerned about their basic survival and positioning themselves competitively on the other side of this. United, Delta, Southwest, and others seem to be taking a more reasoned approach, while American seems content with bleeding themselves into bankruptcy. If there is more taxpayer money offered, and that's a big "if", the strings attached likely won't make it worth it for most airlines. They will have to pay back a decent portion of this money, so increasing their debt while continuing to hemorrhage for the next months (or maybe even years — there's no known timeline or comparable precedent for this) is not putting them in a strong financial position. This is an extreme position coming from United, but this is an extreme situation. We all feel for the likely hundreds of thousands of aviation brothers and sisters all over the world who will have their livelihoods dramatically derailed by this crisis, but airlines need to act quickly to save what they can so that there will be a future again. I hate to say it, but I'm not even sure we've seen rock bottom yet, and airlines need to be prepared for that.
 
CRJ5000
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 09, 2020 1:25 am

With nearly every industry decimated with no end in sight, I don't see how the government can throw more money at the airlines.
Yes, it's an election year, however the 99% of people who aren't in aviation are generally VERY put off by corporate bailouts, and for the most part have a very negative view of airlines in the first place. Go read comments on news articles, social media, etc regarding the airline portion of the CARES act and payroll protection grants. Nearly all of them are opposed. Would you really want to bailout the industry again a month before the election to appease 1% and alienate the other 99%?
 
jetmatt777
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 09, 2020 2:56 am

I think there will be an overall stimulus package that will help with unemployment. I don't think the airlines, or any corporations for that matter, will be receiving checks. Besides - the airlines probably don't want any more strings attached.
 
ericm2031
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 09, 2020 3:28 am

I don't think another bailout will happen or should happen. If it were to happen, it needs to have long term strings attached, similar to what banks go through. Clearly more cash on hand/access to liquidity would be for starters. But that would be tough for airlines to accept and I don't see that happening unless this really gets bad and bankruptcies become a real threat.
 
alfa164
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 09, 2020 4:01 am

UPlog wrote:
Nothing to do with China. HKG airport since back in April has performed antigen test used to detect the presence of Covid19. From what I gather union has recommended pilots decline what they believe is a too invasive test (a throat saliva sample).


Both United and American are halting flights over the new testing procedure:

"Hong Kong’s Centre for Health Protection has said that as of Wednesday, incoming crews will be subject to the collection of “deep throat saliva specimens,” and any person refusing to be tested will be subject to a fine and imprisonment. If a crew member tests positive, “hospital admission will be arranged as soon as possible.”
American is halting flights to Hong Kong until Aug. 5 because of the requirements, according to an email the leadership of the Allied Pilots Association union sent to its membership.

"In a statement, United said a flight between San Francisco and Hong Kong that had been scheduled for Wednesday was canceled because of “recent changes in testing protocol” at Hong Kong International Airport. It added that “United flights to and from HKG are suspended through July 10 westbound and their corresponding returns. We are currently assessing how this impacts our future operations.”

"Earlier this week, United said it planned to resume service between Chicago and Hong Kong starting in September."



https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/0 ... ong-353982
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MKIAZ
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 09, 2020 6:08 am

CRJ5000 wrote:
With nearly every industry decimated with no end in sight, I don't see how the government can throw more money at the airlines.
Yes, it's an election year, however the 99% of people who aren't in aviation are generally VERY put off by corporate bailouts, and for the most part have a very negative view of airlines in the first place. Go read comments on news articles, social media, etc regarding the airline portion of the CARES act and payroll protection grants. Nearly all of them are opposed. Would you really want to bailout the industry again a month before the election to appease 1% and alienate the other 99%?


The white house has had tons of meetings with the airline execs. Any way you slice it, it isn't good. If the airlines knew they were going to get another round of bailouts, then AA wouldn't have raised the debt at 12%... or possibly even worse, they couldn't survive until the next round of bailouts without the funding. Either scenario isn't good.

My thinking is everyone knows there will be no more bailouts for airlines. When this round of bailouts came through everything was crashing hard. Now the Nasdaq is at all time highs.
 
LGeneReese
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Thu Jul 09, 2020 6:35 am

Meanwhile.......
789
N24980 B2 BOE355 CHSCHS 2Jul20
I am fairly certain there is no rush to deliver this aircraft.
 
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LAXintl
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Fri Jul 10, 2020 2:41 am

Deal between UA and ALPA to help reduce pilot workforce.

"Today, I am able to report we have reached two Tentative Agreements - one for Voluntary Furloughs and COLAs, and one for a Pilot Voluntary Separation Leave (Early Out) program. The MEC will consider these Tentative Agreements at the July meeting next week."

United, pilots union reach tentative agreements for early retirements and voluntary furloughs
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/10/united- ... oughs.html
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LAXintl
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Fri Jul 10, 2020 4:38 pm

United Airlines bonds downgraded deeper into junk by S&P

S&P Global Ratings late Thursday downgraded United Airlines Holdings Inc. debt, saying it expects the airline to generate "substantial cash flow deficit," thanks to a "steep decline" in bookings due to the COVID-19 pandemic. United is taking several steps to offset the fewer bookings, but these will not be enough, it said.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/unite ... 2020-07-09
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United1
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Fri Jul 10, 2020 5:45 pm

LAXintl wrote:
United Airlines bonds downgraded deeper into junk by S&P

S&P Global Ratings late Thursday downgraded United Airlines Holdings Inc. debt, saying it expects the airline to generate "substantial cash flow deficit," thanks to a "steep decline" in bookings due to the COVID-19 pandemic. United is taking several steps to offset the fewer bookings, but these will not be enough, it said.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/unite ... 2020-07-09


Not a surprise but at least S&P is expecting UA to start generating cash next year so things seem to be going according to UA's plan.
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LAXintl
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Fri Jul 10, 2020 6:27 pm

Due to "changing competitive environment in LAX" (read AA), UA has cancelled closure of 787 base at LAX planned for October.
Will now keep albeit smaller base with 75 pilots open.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Fri Jul 10, 2020 6:54 pm

LAXintl wrote:
Due to "changing competitive environment in LAX" (read AA), UA has cancelled closure of 787 base at LAX planned for October.
Will now keep albeit smaller base with 75 pilots open.


I believe it had 80 pilots before this? This is a very good sign though. Would be nice to see LAX-TLV down the road...

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