alfa164 wrote:October 1st... barely one month before the elections in the USA. I would be willing to bet the Washington politicians all come up with another airline bail-out agreement before that deadline.
I wouldn't bet on that if I were you, even with a presidential election a little over a month away I think come October 1st airlines are on their own. The reason I've changed by position is because most businesses whose business existed to support the airline industry have already laid off the necessary employees. Think about it and I'll just use catering operations or the flight kitchens as an example, airlines have already scaled down their operations in terms of onboard service. From coast to coast tens of thousands of kitchen employees who cater flights for both domestic and international carriers have already been let go. I think come October there will probably be 100,000-120,000 airlines employees here in the US out of a job, but employees in the supporting roles have already been let go. I don't see Trump and the Republican controlled Senate doing another bail-out because it will only delay the inevitable. Also I don't think airlines want more CARES Act because the first CARES Act didn't cover 100% of the payroll. Take United as an example our CARES Act funds were more than a billion dollars short of covering 100% of the payroll for these 6 months. I think they want they want to get this over with so they can begin moving forward with the recovery.
I hope to see UA's numbers come down (36,000 is a lot and I know it is worst case scenario) but with UA saying we may hold capacity around 35%-40% for the remainder of the year, I think it is becoming clear that by summer 2020 we may be back around 65%-70% of pre-COVID.