Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

 
orcajet
Posts: 18
Joined: Sun Nov 25, 2018 8:24 pm

Re: United New Route Announcement 9/9/2020

Wed Sep 09, 2020 1:05 pm

Unpopular opinion here, I know, but are these long haul leisure/VFR suggestions really that far out? BKK DPS MNL OGG etc? I'm well aware that returns on those are no where near what ZNY-LON J/F are but these are different times. UA was selling SFO/LAX-PVG/PEK in Y for sub $1k rt pre COVID and that was with half empty Polaris cabins.... I don't see really whats to stop them from doing that to say BKK now post COVID... airlines are going to need to be realistic about both what markets exist in terms of demand and balancing cash preservation instincts with the need to do something with all the staff they're keeping on payroll. Jet A is cheap, airports are desperate and likely willing to defer landing fees for new service, and frames that previously could be making money on cash cow business routes are now sitting in the mojave. In short, I understand the arguments against but I really feel like the cases for LH leisure/VFR are fundamentally different than they were a year ago.
 
User avatar
DLHAM
Posts: 552
Joined: Sat Dec 31, 2016 1:10 am

Re: United New Route Announcement 9/9/2020

Wed Sep 09, 2020 1:20 pm

orcajet wrote:
Unpopular opinion here, I know, but are these long haul leisure/VFR suggestions really that far out? BKK DPS MNL OGG etc? I'm well aware that returns on those are no where near what ZNY-LON J/F are but these are different times. UA was selling SFO/LAX-PVG/PEK in Y for sub $1k rt pre COVID and that was with half empty Polaris cabins.... I don't see really whats to stop them from doing that to say BKK now post COVID... airlines are going to need to be realistic about both what markets exist in terms of demand and balancing cash preservation instincts with the need to do something with all the staff they're keeping on payroll. Jet A is cheap, airports are desperate and likely willing to defer landing fees for new service, and frames that previously could be making money on cash cow business routes are now sitting in the mojave. In short, I understand the arguments against but I really feel like the cases for LH leisure/VFR are fundamentally different than they were a year ago.


No they are Not far out IMO. On the atlantic US Airlines already tended to leisure destinations over last last few years. So why not destinations like these?

Destinations like Copenhagen, Oslo, Birmingham, Belfast or Hamburg got axed and therefor Destinations like Oporto, Keflavik, Naples, Palermo were added. Business and VFR traffic seemed to be "out" already before COVID. They seem to like seasonal leisure routes to fly backpackers and tourists where a certain share of them has the money to afford Business Class.
My Instagram Account: Instagram
 
codc10
Posts: 2908
Joined: Sat Jul 08, 2000 7:18 am

Re: United New Route Announcement 9/9/2020

Wed Sep 09, 2020 1:33 pm

lga31vfr wrote:
ASFlyer wrote:
jasoncrh wrote:
I have a lot of friends in network planning and other corporate positions at United who’ve recently lost their jobs due to covid. Something like 1/3 if their management positions gone. Pretty terrible timing for a vanity video like this to be produced


It's not a "vanity video" - it's marketing. They have a business to continue running despite these misfortunes related to Covid. There isn't a specific "mourning period" that they need to honor before they can continue on with the day to day operations. Selling flights is their business and good marketing helps to that effect.


obviously but its UA's approach that is off. It doesnt make sense in todays world to market like this. They can easily market it in a more mature, responsible way.


There is once again some optimism about COVID, with reports of progressing vaccine trials, promise of therapeutics, hotspots "cooling off", etc. Much like in June, when consumer confidence increases, passengers start booking flights. Concerns related to the virus have compressed the leisure booking window down from months to days and weeks, which is especially troublesome since business travel is pretty much dead for the rest of the year. United can't run an airline on a rolling 60-day basis, so it needs to do what it can to capitalize on the current situation, stimulate bookings, and get some cash in the door. A morose, "come back when you're ready" strategy may seem more appropriate under the circumstances, but it's horrible for business.

Couple that with the need to redeploy assets from business markets to leisure for the coming winter, and you can see why United's threshold to try new flying might be a bit lower than before. Finally, the marketing budget has been chopped, so, now more than ever, United needs to leverage its in-house social media capabilities to engage passengers since the traditional channels and touchpoints (print, TV spots, sponsorships) have likely been curtailed for the time being. This 'teaser'/guessing game approach has been well-received and is achieving the desired effect.
 
CALMSP
Posts: 3345
Joined: Wed Aug 13, 2003 3:18 am

Re: United New Route Announcement 9/9/2020

Wed Sep 09, 2020 1:39 pm

sand26391 wrote:
rjbesikof wrote:
Antarius wrote:

EWR-BLR? Curious on your thought process.


BLR would not surprise me. Good way to take on AA when SEA-BLR commences next year. Wouldn't SFO be a better fit for BLR or would EWR work just fine?



I've been hearing EWR-BLR since 2015. I remember that guys from BLR aiport visited UA HQ in Jan 2020 along with AA and AC. And it turns out AA announced SEA-BLR. But I think right nowz Delhi would be THE right choice for a non stop UA flight as they also have a codeshare with Vistara if I'm not wrong, which id based in Delhi. Would be surprised to see EWR-BLR but I don't think it wi happen.


EWR-BLR has been talked about since CO announced the 787!
 
jayunited
Posts: 3024
Joined: Sat Jan 05, 2013 12:03 am

Re: United New Route Announcement 9/9/2020

Wed Sep 09, 2020 1:39 pm

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
United isn't "expanding" they are pivoting. They will be a smaller airline actually, this is part of their overall shrinking and downsizing. They have to use the planes to fly some different routes here until business travel comes back. It's pretty clear 2021 is now dead for business travel the airlines have to try something to minimize loses they can't fly business routes. These are not prestige routes or probably many long term united is just trying to find places to minimize loses and get some cash flowing in. When business travel comes back expect most of these to bite the dust real fast



You are correct United is pivoting and it is about time we pivot and become more flexible.

Sitting on the sidelines gets us no where and while cargo has been a main source of revenue since the beginning of this pandemic we all know at some point shipping rates are going to come down. Even if these new routes are temporary, seasonal, and operate less than daily if they provide United Airlines with much needed revenue in 2021 and boost the bottom line then they have done their job. You are right some of these flights may not stick around long term but right now long term isn't United's problem, surviving and making money in the short term is. So I say bring on the new routes and bring on the excitement because hopefully these new routes will bring in some much needed short term revenue.

lga31vfr wrote:
ASFlyer wrote:
jasoncrh wrote:
I have a lot of friends in network planning and other corporate positions at United who’ve recently lost their jobs due to covid. Something like 1/3 if their management positions gone. Pretty terrible timing for a vanity video like this to be produced


It's not a "vanity video" - it's marketing. They have a business to continue running despite these misfortunes related to Covid. There isn't a specific "mourning period" that they need to honor before they can continue on with the day to day operations. Selling flights is their business and good marketing helps to that effect.


obviously but its UA's approach that is off. It doesnt make sense in todays world to market like this. They can easily market it in a more mature, responsible way.


I don't think the approach is off at all there are multiple independent surveys out now showing that Americans are itching to just get back out there and travel, and not just domestically but internationally in 2021 as well. While business travel with be virtually nonexistent in 2021, there are multiple surveys showing and some travel industry experts believe demand for leisure travel will be up in 2021 especially if international tourism is allowed to resume. While it is true United has laid off about 1/3 of network planners the only way to get people back working for UA is for UA to start making money to paying down this COVID debt we have accumulated. And make no mistake United like AA and DL has accumulated a bit of debt during this crisis we are going to need creative solutions to bring in revenue to pay this money back. You say United approach is off, I think UA's approach is what's needed, just look at the response (excitement) across several social media sites. If we can get people excited about travel in 2021, and that in turn translates into more customers on our planes, which in turn could a boost to our bottom line in 2021, then UA has done its job. That in turn could mean people who unfortunately have be layoff or furloughed could be that much closer to getting their job back.

Sitting on the sidelines hoping thing will get better while doing nothing, does not help United Airlines and it certainly does not help coworkers and friends who have lost their job get back into the industry they love.
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 8483
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: United New Route Announcement 9/9/2020

Wed Sep 09, 2020 1:42 pm

orcajet wrote:
Unpopular opinion here, I know, but are these long haul leisure/VFR suggestions really that far out? BKK DPS MNL OGG etc? I'm well aware that returns on those are no where near what ZNY-LON J/F are but these are different times. UA was selling SFO/LAX-PVG/PEK in Y for sub $1k rt pre COVID and that was with half empty Polaris cabins.... I don't see really whats to stop them from doing that to say BKK now post COVID... airlines are going to need to be realistic about both what markets exist in terms of demand and balancing cash preservation instincts with the need to do something with all the staff they're keeping on payroll. Jet A is cheap, airports are desperate and likely willing to defer landing fees for new service, and frames that previously could be making money on cash cow business routes are now sitting in the mojave.


There are a few points that need making.

Effective 10/1/20, all the labor cost that was effectively fixed (CARES Act layoff prohibition, and the Feds picking up ~70% of the cost), again becomes variable. If routes don't cover variable cost they won't be flown (for reasons that should be obvious). It doesn't matter if it's 100 frames or 500 frames parked - routes need to cover variable costs.

The existence of sub $1K fares on some TPAC routes really isn't indicative of a failed pricing model. It's not the lowest available fare that's relevant, but the avg fare per ASM. A carrier can do ULH across some (variable) mix of people paying for J, high last minute fares, and very full cabins. You think they're going to get that to MNL? Not me... China routes may get business demand. Not so much to BKK, IMHO. That will be low-fare leisure booked months in advance (because it's too d far to go for a long weekend), and shopped heavily. That's poison to ULH profitability.

They're welcome to try. They may find some pleasant surprises. I hope they're going to actually run the airline rather than ask for three years more of taxpayer support. They also need to be pragmatic and terminate routes quickly if advance bookings and fares are trash.

And to Jay: revenue doesn't pay off debt - operating income does.
 
User avatar
calpsafltskeds
Posts: 3233
Joined: Tue Dec 19, 2006 1:29 am

Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Wed Sep 09, 2020 1:48 pm

Jay, I show 30 772A/Es at ROW including N209UA. While many of the non-ROW aircraft are in UA hubs, most have not moved for a month or more and I consider stored. UA has slowly moved more 772s into ROW from stored at UA hub airports. If this continues into Winter, maybe ORD/DEN/IAD units will move to ROW as well.

772 Domestic A and 4 E units (219-222) Stored: ROW 7, ORD 2, SFO 1, - Flying/short term parked: 13, usually 10-13, flying daily.
772PW E Stored: ROW 16, SFO 4, ORD 3, DEN 1, IAD 1 - Flying/short term parked: 4, usually 1 to 4 flying per day
772GE E Stored: ROW 7, IAD 4, ORD 2, DEN 1, LAX 1 (DEN/LAX units relocated from IAH due hurricane) - Flying/short term parked: 7, usually less than half flying daily.
Data available on Fleet site on Mainline Fleet tab and ParkedAircraft/Coronavirus tab. Links in my signature below.
Includes Ross Paulson's Grounded fleet status report (Ross and I work together to update daily from Fleet Site information and its been redesigned and provides up-to-date information based on information from the Fleet site fleet spreadsheets) link from Fleet site home page. Info shows long term stored aircraft, short term parked and flying today aircraft.
Ross's information shows total and details by airport, fleet and individual aircraft.

UA's flying the pants off the 788/789/78X/77W fleets. 2 789 units in XMN for maint or Polaris/maint.
7 of 38 763s are in occasional service, on average about half of those 7 flying daily. Currently all 17 76L units are in long (or intermediate) term storage, most in IAH.

Similar aircraft usage by narrow bodies with 45% of aircraft flying today. Today's fleet utilization is about normal with 319 at 61%, followed by 378/739/753 at about 50% and 320/73G about 40%. Daily operation is slightly different by day with weekend and Tuesday being lowest in operation. Today 233 NBs are stored (parked more than 14 days) with another 85 short term parked - 255 units are flying today.
 
CALMSP
Posts: 3345
Joined: Wed Aug 13, 2003 3:18 am

Re: United New Route Announcement 9/9/2020

Wed Sep 09, 2020 1:53 pm

gonna get my guesses in before the announcement:

ORD-LIM (not going to say EWR since that has been flown for so long, but could be reinstated)
ORD-ICN

IAD-ACC

SFO-GRU

EWR-OGG
EWR-CMN
 
ScottB
Posts: 7111
Joined: Fri Jul 28, 2000 1:25 am

Re: Why United should establish a new TPA hub (or at least a focus city)

Wed Sep 09, 2020 1:58 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
There are too many double standards around here. Why is it ok for Delta to burn money on their pet projects in SEA and BOS duking it out with AS and B6? How many times has Delta started and stopped flights like SEA-KIX? Three times now? But no criticism for that it seems.


SEA and BOS are both very wealthy markets with strong international travel demand. In 2018, the Boston MSA ranked 8th for GDP; Seattle was 11th. Tampa Bay, by comparison, was 24th. The incumbent carriers in SEA and BOS didn't have the ability to fly their own intercontinental long-haul routes. AS isn't a low-fare carrier. And, FWIW, Delta had a strong historical presence in Boston dating back to their purchases of Northeast and the Pan Am Shuttle. Delta's cutbacks at BOS in the aughts (in no small part due to their bankruptcy) helped B6 to grow BOS into a hub; in 1999, DL/Connection/Shuttle/Express served about 30 destinations from BOS.

United brings nothing to the table at TPA apart from higher costs. Sure, they could offer long-haul flights but there's not a lot of demand, particularly for expensive business class seats which drive profitability.

TTailedTiger wrote:
NWA hub at SEA? MSP, MEM, DTW, NRT, PEK does not make a hub.


NWA had a longstanding partnership with AS at SEA which continued after the DL merger and until their messy breakup -- so DL had a good understanding of the traffic dynamics and demand at SEA.

NYCVIE wrote:
I don't think there are ANY DL domestic connections flowed over BOS and few over SEA


There are a few (or were pre-Covid), but not many -- the BOS flying was overwhelmingly focused on O&D markets and secondarily feeding the Europe service. DL didn't add BOS-ORD for connections. If you really, really want to fly EWR-BUF on DL, BOS is as logical a place to connect as DTW.
 
kavok
Posts: 848
Joined: Wed May 11, 2016 10:12 pm

Re: Why United should establish a new TPA hub (or at least a focus city)

Wed Sep 09, 2020 2:05 pm

Let’s look at what ATL does for the DL network, and see what UA is missing out on:

In addition to obviously being the DL mothership, ATL’s geography serves 4 main functions as the network’s
SE hub:

1- ATL provides the main launching point for the Latin America routes. AA has MIA for this same purpose, and UA has IAH. And while IAH is the worst spot geographically for East Coast to Latin America, it is arguably in the best spot for West Coast to Latin America connections.

2- ATL connects DL’s US domestic east coast to west coast flights. CLT and DFW does a similar function for AA. UA has ORD and IAH. So, UA is covered in this regard.

3- ATL connects flights to Northeast/Midwest to Florida. There is a lot of LCC competition in this regard, and thus UA would be wasting money going after these low margin yields.

4- ATL connects intra Southeast markets. This is UAs only real missed opportunity, and the business market between midsized intra-Southeast cities is not large enough to warrant the need for three separate carriers. To be blunt, this is regional jet flying to some small market for at least one leg, and as others have pointed out, not every airline needs to do all things everywhere. DL has a Texas hole, AA has a Northwest hole (in its own metal), and UA has a Southeast hole. And that is ok.
 
VTORD
Posts: 748
Joined: Sat Dec 22, 2012 9:45 pm

Re: United New Route Announcement 9/9/2020

Wed Sep 09, 2020 2:05 pm

DTWLAX wrote:
sand26391 wrote:
I see Lotus Temple in that image, which is located in Delhi. But if I'm not wrong United fly to DEL already (?). So could we see a new Indian route? EWR-BLR/MAA/HYD or something?

Maybe ORD-DEL or IAD-DEL

In the collage there is a string going from ORD to DEL so I am guessing ORD - DEL more likely? I could not make out IAD in the collage.
 
MIAFLLPBIFlyer
Posts: 510
Joined: Mon Jul 03, 2017 8:25 pm

Re: Why United should establish a new TPA hub (or at least a focus city)

Wed Sep 09, 2020 2:05 pm

Reminder again from 1991 to about 1995, UA operated what could be seen as a "mini-hub" or "focus city" in today's jargon from MCO. Destinations included BOS, LGA, EWR, IAD, DCA, ORD, MDW, SFO, LAX, MEX, MIA, FLL, PBI, RSW. Also some UA Express flights (MLB, DAB come to mind).
The timing was bad, but they tried it. As mentioned above for much of that time they had a LATAM gateway at MIA (92 to about 03). Perhaps without that MCO would have worked as a connecting point eventually. Hard to know. Once WN began flying to Florida the whole game changed. Eventually DL & US were on the back foot also in the state something unimaginable in 1995.
 
williaminsd
Posts: 341
Joined: Thu Mar 22, 2018 3:52 pm

Re: United New Route Announcement 9/9/2020

Wed Sep 09, 2020 2:06 pm

jasoncrh wrote:
I have a lot of friends in network planning and other corporate positions at United who’ve recently lost their jobs due to covid. Something like 1/3 if their management positions gone. Pretty terrible timing for a vanity video like this to be produced


While of course everyone can empathize with your friends in planning, that doesn't mean those left don't have jobs to do and this marketing video appears to have generated the appropriate buzz. What better way to get their jobs back than for United to start flying more?

And if the Ameican economy continues roaring back, planners will again be in demand.

Cheer this new route roll-out for its effectiveness, and hopefully for the results.
 
cynlb
Posts: 78
Joined: Sat Jan 27, 2018 3:49 pm

Re: United New Route Announcement 9/9/2020

Wed Sep 09, 2020 2:07 pm

Maybe they should make the announcement like a gender reveal party
 
VTORD
Posts: 748
Joined: Sat Dec 22, 2012 9:45 pm

Re: United New Route Announcement 9/9/2020

Wed Sep 09, 2020 2:08 pm

sand26391 wrote:
CPS001 wrote:
sand26391 wrote:
I see Lotus Temple in that image, which is located in Delhi. But if I'm not wrong United fly to DEL already (?). So could we see a new Indian route? EWR-BLR/MAA/HYD or something?


There's a pin on DEL on an India map (left edge of board) so possibly another DEL route. Though can't really rule anything out. BLR would be a dark horse.



Very likely to be either 2 routes to DEL IMO or even
1 from BOM. Unlikely to be BLR at all IMHO. Or else there would be something related to BLR for sure in that picture.

My initial reaction was to "wish" for ORD - BOM but DEL seems more logical with an increased cooperation with UK
 
Kbud
Posts: 42
Joined: Mon Dec 05, 2016 3:18 am

Re: United New Route Announcement 9/9/2020

Wed Sep 09, 2020 2:11 pm

CALMSP wrote:
gonna get my guesses in before the announcement:

ORD-LIM (not going to say EWR since that has been flown for so long, but could be reinstated)
ORD-ICN

IAD-ACC

SFO-GRU

EWR-OGG
EWR-CMN

Korean must have a strong base in Chicagoland despite not being supported by a Delta hub. When Asiana came in, I thought they would be much stronger with Star hubs on both ends. But they pulled out sometime in 2019. With that recent history, I'd be surprised for UA to start ORD-ICN, even though I'd love it. Because Air India already serves Delhi nonstop, could they add Mumbai as an alternate airport in India?
 
as739x
Posts: 5225
Joined: Tue Apr 15, 2003 7:23 am

Re: United New Route Announcement 9/9/2020

Wed Sep 09, 2020 2:13 pm

N292UX wrote:
A real dark horse for the tropical weather destination in my opinion is SFO-DPS. Bali was a hotspot prior to COVID and it wouldn't shock me if it went back to that. I think SFO-BKK is still way more likely, but I wouldn't be completely shocked by SFO-DPS.


You realize how few Americans are in and travel to Bali? Its a horribly long and thin route that would generate no Biz traffic. As a regular in Bali, including having and apartment there, I run into very few Americans. KLM doesn't even operate AMS non-stop and Indonesia is an ex-Dutch territory with a wealth of Tourist and other connections to each other.

Don't get me wrong, I'd be the happiest person on A.net if this happened. But nope
"Some pilots avoid storm cells and some play connect the dots!"
 
HouStrategies
Posts: 49
Joined: Thu Jun 26, 2008 10:39 pm

Re: Why United should establish a new TPA hub (or at least a focus city)

Wed Sep 09, 2020 2:17 pm

SurfandSnow wrote:
There just isn't much that those hubs do that UA can't do through its EWR, IAD and IAH hubs though. I suppose a traveler from BHM to NAS or SAV to SJU probably won't find any appealing routings on UA - but I doubt there are that many travelers on routes like that. Folks in the South do not face the same harsh winter weather as those in the North do, and many that do travel to beaches opt to drive rather than fly.

Actually quite a few of AA's DFW-Latin America services have been cut lately. I think to reinforce and support the MIA hub during these challenging times AA has had to reduce and eliminate quite a few flights from DFW. Also, O&D from Tampa to Latin America is probably far weaker than that from South Florida or for that matter Orlando.


I appreciate the civilized debate here. The points above are strong. Maybe there's not as much opportunity as I thought. I kinda think of MIA as the JFK or LAX of Florida (every international airline flies there, weakening hub pricing), and TPA could be the EWR/SFO opportunity. I do think the pandemic may be semi-permanently shifting remote working northern business travelers to Florida (see here https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/04/real ... orida.html ), and that creates a new opportunity down there, but it's hard to say if UA could realistically and affordably go after it. Maybe if there's something like a second CARES Act covering labor costs, it could be a worthy experiment to shift the idle planes down there and see what sticks.

Still really enjoying reading people's thoughts on the pros/cons - would love to keep hearing more!
 
Miamiairport
Posts: 738
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2018 8:14 pm

Re: Why United should establish a new TPA hub (or at least a focus city)

Wed Sep 09, 2020 2:21 pm

I really like the TPA airport. I first visited as a a kid in 1970 when it was fairly new. However, the airport was built before the days of hubs. Transferring between terminals/concourses would be a pain if more than one terminal/concourse was needed. Either paxs would need to use a transfer bus or exit Security.
 
Coalways
Posts: 167
Joined: Wed Feb 13, 2008 5:39 am

Re: United New Route Announcement 9/9/2020

Wed Sep 09, 2020 2:27 pm

Great way of marketing especially during this time! My guesses

LAX-TLV
IAD-ACC
EWR-OGG
IAH-South America
SFO-Bali

Not sure of the other 2
 
PlaneMad134
Posts: 197
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2018 8:59 am

Re: United New Route Announcement 9/9/2020

Wed Sep 09, 2020 2:32 pm

Maybe a UK route? As I see GMT on the board.
 
kiowa
Posts: 777
Joined: Wed Jun 08, 2011 12:37 am

Re: United New Route Announcement 9/9/2020

Wed Sep 09, 2020 2:35 pm

N3340W wrote:
Already 121 posts discussing a new route means the marketing has done its job! COVID or not, they have us talking about it......and that boys and girls.....is what good marketing is all about.


True and well done bu UA. Hope the routes work out!
 
jasoncrh
Posts: 780
Joined: Wed Jun 08, 2005 10:29 pm

Re: United New Route Announcement 9/9/2020

Wed Sep 09, 2020 2:36 pm

Chicago is the third largest city in the US. That plus the suburbs has a huge Korean population and other southeast Asian populations that can easily support a flight to Korea on the strength of the local population and demand for travel alone. Feed not necessary. Korean has been in Chicago for decades and has very strong and secure connections with all the most relevant points of sale in Chicago. Asiana was a relative newcomer who was never able to develop those relationships. Membership in star didn’t matter and the timing of the flights at ord most of the time was never conducive to connections with United flights. It was clearly aimed at the local market. And didn’t work.

Kbud wrote:
CALMSP wrote:
gonna get my guesses in before the announcement:

ORD-LIM (not going to say EWR since that has been flown for so long, but could be reinstated)
ORD-ICN

IAD-ACC

SFO-GRU

EWR-OGG
EWR-CMN

Korean must have a strong base in Chicagoland despite not being supported by a Delta hub. When Asiana came in, I thought they would be much stronger with Star hubs on both ends. But they pulled out sometime in 2019. With that recent history, I'd be surprised for UA to start ORD-ICN, even though I'd love it. Because Air India already serves Delhi nonstop, could they add Mumbai as an alternate airport in India?
 
ScottB
Posts: 7111
Joined: Fri Jul 28, 2000 1:25 am

Re: Why United should establish a new TPA hub (or at least a focus city)

Wed Sep 09, 2020 2:39 pm

kavok wrote:
And while IAH is the worst spot geographically for East Coast to Latin America, it is arguably in the best spot for West Coast to Latin America connections.


Actually, IAH is in a fantastic location for connections to Mexico and northern Central America -- and Mexico is the second-largest international market from the U.S. (and quite likely to be largest this year). Back when CO was flying E145s to practically every Mexican airstrip they could, as well as FRS, CO served just about as many Mexican airports from IAH as AM served from MEX.

kavok wrote:
ATL connects flights to Northeast/Midwest to Florida. There is a lot of LCC competition in this regard, and thus UA would be wasting money going after these low margin yields.


And if they wanted to go after these traffic flows, they have EWR/IAD/ORD.

HouStrategies wrote:
I do think the pandemic may be semi-permanently shifting remote working northern business travelers to Florida (see here https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/04/real ... orida.html ), and that creates a new opportunity down there, but it's hard to say if UA could realistically and affordably go after it. Maybe if there's something like a second CARES Act covering labor costs, it could be a worthy experiment to shift the idle planes down there and see what sticks.


If there's a real shift of remote workers to Florida, it's likely that there will be significantly less business travel. If you can work from your bungalow in Clearwater rather than an office in Manhattan, you probably don't need to fly to SFO for a meeting, either.
 
01pewterz28
Posts: 35
Joined: Thu Dec 30, 2010 7:43 pm

Re: Why United should establish a new TPA hub (or at least a focus city)

Wed Sep 09, 2020 2:45 pm

We had a mini Hub at MCO back in the early 90's it was actually larger than United's Mini hub at MIA.

We had 45 flights a day to in 1991 the plan was to grow the hub and open a pilot base @ MCO.
 
catiii
Posts: 3631
Joined: Mon Mar 31, 2008 1:18 am

Re: Why United should establish a new TPA hub (or at least a focus city)

Wed Sep 09, 2020 2:46 pm

HouStrategies wrote:
catiii wrote:
HouStrategies wrote:

RDU is just too close to IAD - way too much overlap. BNA has too much overlap with ORD, IAH, and IAD - as well as having way too much low fare competition and not being helpful at all for east coast to the Caribbean or Latin America. TPA may seem too far south, but most of the southeastern population is along the coasts, and it's located very reasonably to connect Gulf coast destinations to Atlantic coast ones. It can be a fairly effective hybrid of what AA does with CLT+MIA.


What gulf coast/east coast connectivity isn’t already accomplished via IAH, IAD, or EWR?


Connecting any two points between IAH and IAD without backtracking.


Such as?

"Backtracking" is irrelevant. It's time spent.
 
catiii
Posts: 3631
Joined: Mon Mar 31, 2008 1:18 am

Re: Why United should establish a new TPA hub (or at least a focus city)

Wed Sep 09, 2020 2:47 pm

01pewterz28 wrote:
We had a mini Hub at MCO back in the early 90's it was actually larger than United's Mini hub at MIA.

We had 45 flights a day to in 1991 the plan was to grow the hub and open a pilot base @ MCO.


UA has an inflight base there now right? Around 200 or so?
 
lga31vfr
Posts: 23
Joined: Fri Sep 04, 2020 12:23 pm

Re: United New Route Announcement 9/9/2020

Wed Sep 09, 2020 2:48 pm

N3340W wrote:
Already 121 posts discussing a new route means the marketing has done its job! COVID or not, they have us talking about it......and that boys and girls.....is what good marketing is all about.


you do realize that out of those 121 posts, most belong to multiple posters? Really not that impressive considering the tens of thousands of people, if not more, that they really need to reach. But its a start.
 
Ishrion
Posts: 3047
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 6:17 am

Re: United New Route Announcement 9/9/2020

Wed Sep 09, 2020 2:50 pm

Anyone else feel like this may ironically be more historic than their "historic" announcement back in December 2018?
 
AshFlops
Posts: 33
Joined: Wed Jun 10, 2020 1:56 pm

Re: United New Route Announcement 9/9/2020

Wed Sep 09, 2020 2:51 pm

rjbesikof wrote:
I am going to say another Tel Aviv (either LAX, IAH, or DEN). By the end of October, with the exception of SFO remaining sub daily, they will have an almost complete schedule to TLV. With the ORD launch that will come later this week, they seem to be going all in on that market. Now, could they launch SFO-CHC to take on AA's upcoming LAX-CHC in W21?


A DEN-TLV would be amazing! We would take it all the time! But unfortunately, not enough demand on either end for that. IAH or LAX would be more likely. LAX has the O&D for that, and IAH has the Latin American connections to fill the planes.
 
FlyingElvii
Posts: 987
Joined: Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:53 pm

Re: Why United should establish a new TPA hub (or at least a focus city)

Wed Sep 09, 2020 2:53 pm

The ONLY places left in the southeast for a reasonable chance of creating a hub are Nashville and RDU. Neither would be a good fit for United.

Southwest has BNA, one of the fastest growing cities in America, all but locked up already.

RDU has been tried a couple of times. American couldn't make it work, and ended up turning it over to Midway Airlines II to get out of the long-term obligations they made. Midway built an active operation there, but were already in financial trouble before 9/11 hit. They did not survive the downturn. Since then, both American and Delta have tried the focus city thing, but the demise of the 50-seater is likely putting an end to that.

As they say, "The Times, they are a'changin' though. While not a good fit for United due to IAD, which already has a built-in International base, not far away, it could make a good ops base for someone in the "New Reality", given the recently created glut of cheap airplanes and cheap pilots.
 
dmstorm22
Posts: 623
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 1:49 pm

Re: United New Route Announcement 9/9/2020

Wed Sep 09, 2020 2:53 pm

Ishrion wrote:
Anyone else feel like this may ironically be more historic than their "historic" announcement back in December 2018?


Yeah, I was trying to remember the particulars of that one.

United way overpromised on that one (though admittedly it was a sizable announcement in totality but nothing too 'wow'); Hopefully they didn't hear, though in this case it wasn't a multi-channel marketing effort.

I'm excited to see what happens. Given the way of the world, focusing on VFR and liesure for a bit in lieu of corporate traffic that won't be back for a while makes sense, and gives credence to some interesting route options that never would have made sense in past.
 
FlyingElvii
Posts: 987
Joined: Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:53 pm

Re: Why United should establish a new TPA hub (or at least a focus city)

Wed Sep 09, 2020 2:54 pm

catiii wrote:
01pewterz28 wrote:
We had a mini Hub at MCO back in the early 90's it was actually larger than United's Mini hub at MIA.

We had 45 flights a day to in 1991 the plan was to grow the hub and open a pilot base @ MCO.


UA has an inflight base there now right? Around 200 or so?

Plus the Maintenence Center
 
d8s
Posts: 135
Joined: Thu Feb 23, 2012 6:45 pm

Re: United New Route Announcement 9/9/2020

Wed Sep 09, 2020 2:58 pm

Ishrion wrote:
Anyone else feel like this may ironically be more historic than their "historic" announcement back in December 2018?


Interesting is an airline that has been decimated but the drop in int'l travel is going to add int'l destinations in the midst of it all.
 
orcajet
Posts: 18
Joined: Sun Nov 25, 2018 8:24 pm

Re: United New Route Announcement 9/9/2020

Wed Sep 09, 2020 3:00 pm

I would argue with the risk aversion to pilot layoffs coupled with public affairs sensitivity especially during an election year there is still probably a strong inclination to keep the airline overstaffed relative to current demand. I wholly agree that low TPAC fares don't indicate failed pricing rather I was positing they indicate potentially successful pricing given local market conditions. If they were making 2x PVG daily work before with 50 open in J it seems like you could make 1x BKK work with a 788 say. I believe these conditions could exist elsewhere in the market and with more slack and slight over-staffing the barriers to entry seem much lower. Might as well throw some weird stuff at the wall and see what sticks.
MIflyer12 wrote:
orcajet wrote:
Unpopular opinion here, I know, but are these long haul leisure/VFR suggestions really that far out? BKK DPS MNL OGG etc? I'm well aware that returns on those are no where near what ZNY-LON J/F are but these are different times. UA was selling SFO/LAX-PVG/PEK in Y for sub $1k rt pre COVID and that was with half empty Polaris cabins.... I don't see really whats to stop them from doing that to say BKK now post COVID... airlines are going to need to be realistic about both what markets exist in terms of demand and balancing cash preservation instincts with the need to do something with all the staff they're keeping on payroll. Jet A is cheap, airports are desperate and likely willing to defer landing fees for new service, and frames that previously could be making money on cash cow business routes are now sitting in the mojave.


There are a few points that need making.

Effective 10/1/20, all the labor cost that was effectively fixed (CARES Act layoff prohibition, and the Feds picking up ~70% of the cost), again becomes variable. If routes don't cover variable cost they won't be flown (for reasons that should be obvious). It doesn't matter if it's 100 frames or 500 frames parked - routes need to cover variable costs.

The existence of sub $1K fares on some TPAC routes really isn't indicative of a failed pricing model. It's not the lowest available fare that's relevant, but the avg fare per ASM. A carrier can do ULH across some (variable) mix of people paying for J, high last minute fares, and very full cabins. You think they're going to get that to MNL? Not me... China routes may get business demand. Not so much to BKK, IMHO. That will be low-fare leisure booked months in advance (because it's too d far to go for a long weekend), and shopped heavily. That's poison to ULH profitability.

They're welcome to try. They may find some pleasant surprises. I hope they're going to actually run the airline rather than ask for three years more of taxpayer support. They also need to be pragmatic and terminate routes quickly if advance bookings and fares are trash.

And to Jay: revenue doesn't pay off debt - operating income does.
 
Ishrion
Posts: 3047
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 6:17 am

Re: United New Route Announcement 9/9/2020

Wed Sep 09, 2020 3:02 pm

San Francisco to Bangalore
Newark to Kaluhui and Johannesburg
Washington to Accra and Lagos
Chicago to Kona and Delhi

https://twitter.com/SweeneyABC/status/1 ... 3300747264

Amazing.
 
LAXdude1023
Posts: 6194
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:16 pm

Re: United New Route Announcement 9/9/2020

Wed Sep 09, 2020 3:03 pm

Ishrion wrote:
San Francisco to Bangalore
Newark to Kaluhui and Johannesburg
Washington to Accra and Lagos
Chicago to Kona and Delhi

https://twitter.com/SweeneyABC/status/1 ... 3300747264

Amazing.


Very interesting. Im surprised nothing to Latin America since they seem to be putting eggs in that basket.

Agree that IAD is the best location for Africa routes and since SA probably wont be coming back the the US, EWR-JNB makes sense.
FOR THE LOVE OF GOD BRING BACK THE PAYWALL!!!!
 
dmstorm22
Posts: 623
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 1:49 pm

Re: United New Route Announcement 9/9/2020

Wed Sep 09, 2020 3:04 pm

Ishrion wrote:
San Francisco to Bangalore
Newark to Kaluhui and Johannesburg
Washington to Accra and Lagos
Chicago to Kona and Delhi

https://twitter.com/SweeneyABC/status/1 ... 3300747264

Amazing.


God bless and Good luck to United. Who even knows if some of these are allowed to run (or passengers are allowed to enter without massive quarantine restrictions) when they want to start

Confused by the JNB flight, I guess I'll need to read the full report if this has any impact on the EWR-CPT route which from what I understood did quite well last winter season. Also to start it in spring is interesting, when the liesure traffic dries up.
Last edited by dmstorm22 on Wed Sep 09, 2020 3:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
N292UX
Posts: 584
Joined: Sun Jan 01, 2017 7:08 pm

Re: United New Route Announcement 9/9/2020

Wed Sep 09, 2020 3:04 pm

Wow. Major clap back at AA with SFO-Bangalore. Also quickly filling the SAA void with EWR-JNB and IAD-ACC. IAD-LOS is also exciting to see.

Surprised there was nothing with South America.
 
ytib
Posts: 590
Joined: Sun Nov 07, 2004 3:22 am

Re: United New Route Announcement 9/9/2020

Wed Sep 09, 2020 3:06 pm

Mostly Summer 2021 starts.

United release: https://hub.united.com/2020-09-09-unite ... 35777.html
318, 319, 320, 321, 332, 333, 388, 707, 717, 722, 732, 733, 734, 73Q, 735, 73G, 738, 7M8, 739, 752, 753, 742, 74L, 744, 762, 763, 772, 77L, 77W, 789, 142, CN1, CR2, CR7, DC8, DH2, DH8, D8Q, D10, D95, EM2, ER3, ER4, E70, 100, J31, M11, M83, M88, M90, SF3
 
bravotango75
Posts: 104
Joined: Wed May 22, 2019 5:14 pm

Re: United New Route Announcement 9/9/2020

Wed Sep 09, 2020 3:06 pm

Looks like you IAH FBs got hosed again.
 
rnav2dlrey
Posts: 382
Joined: Mon Apr 13, 2015 1:10 am

Re: United New Route Announcement 9/9/2020

Wed Sep 09, 2020 3:07 pm

SFO-BLR will print money for UA. prior threads have detailed how technically challenging the route is, but the 789 once again shows how capable it can be.
 
 
sand26391
Posts: 672
Joined: Sun Mar 30, 2014 11:47 am

Re: United New Route Announcement 9/9/2020

Wed Sep 09, 2020 3:08 pm

SFO-BLR! Finally!!!! A dream come true!
 
User avatar
Irehdna
Posts: 411
Joined: Thu Dec 01, 2016 12:40 am

Re: United New Route Announcement 9/9/2020

Wed Sep 09, 2020 3:10 pm

SFO-BLR. A route first rumoured by KF and AI in the mid 2000s but not official until nearly 15 years later. Congrats to UA! Curious to see if AI US flights can survive into 2021; they have competition on every route now.
 
EI121
Posts: 245
Joined: Thu Jan 08, 2015 9:14 pm

Re: United New Route Announcement 9/9/2020

Wed Sep 09, 2020 3:12 pm

rnav2dlrey wrote:
SFO-BLR will print money for UA. prior threads have detailed how technically challenging the route is, but the 789 once again shows how capable it can be.


Out of curiosity, would you be able to link these threads?

Thanks, EI121
Last edited by EI121 on Wed Sep 09, 2020 3:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Cointrin330
Posts: 2140
Joined: Sat Jul 16, 2016 12:23 pm

Re: United New Route Announcement 9/9/2020

Wed Sep 09, 2020 3:12 pm

ddaly241 wrote:
What about EWR-MNL, huge Fillipino population in NJ and NYC and Philly area.


Long, thin route. Not likely. Business traffic small compared to VFR.
 
Cointrin330
Posts: 2140
Joined: Sat Jul 16, 2016 12:23 pm

Re: United New Route Announcement 9/9/2020

Wed Sep 09, 2020 3:14 pm

UA served ACC before, from IAD. Not sure about LOS or if it was just from IAH. UA had planned to launch ORD-DEL in the late 1990s with the 747-400 but it never happened. Not sure if it was a range issue, or something else.
 
MIAFLLPBIFlyer
Posts: 510
Joined: Mon Jul 03, 2017 8:25 pm

Re: United New Route Announcement 9/9/2020

Wed Sep 09, 2020 3:18 pm

Cointrin330 wrote:
UA served ACC before, from IAD. Not sure about LOS or if it was just from IAH. UA had planned to launch ORD-DEL in the late 1990s with the 747-400 but it never happened. Not sure if it was a range issue, or something else.


ORD-DEL was scheduled to start 10/31/01...9/11 killed the proposed route.
 
jasoncrh
Posts: 780
Joined: Wed Jun 08, 2005 10:29 pm

Re: United New Route Announcement 9/9/2020

Wed Sep 09, 2020 3:18 pm

All great adds!! I wish them the best!! Exciting to see

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos