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autopiloton
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Mon Mar 30, 2020 3:21 am

wjcandee wrote:
yochai wrote:
wjcandee wrote:

Do you know whether there is an aircraft in conversion at MEX now, given that N544LA is done and sent to ILN? (Only took 2.66 months!)


I have no idea regarding the MEX site and their output, under 3 months sounds very very fast for a conversion, my hunch is a heavy check rather than conversion.


So let's talk about N544LA. This is what I get for trusting sources like Skyliner against my own better judgment. They said that 544LA had been converted in MEX. It made sense that it could have been converted in MEX. it was certainly at MEX for 2.66 months. And MEX is where IAI/Bedek has its second 767-300 conversion line. Although, as Yochai pointed out, 2.66 months is awfully-short for a conversion, which Bedek usually puts at 90 days just for installing a cargo door.

Yochai was right. It wasn't converted. I know this because I saw a photo of it at MIA on March 11, after it left MEX. (March 11 is the date it flew MIA to ILN.)

It still has windows.

Now the photographer didn't bother to shoot it from the side that would have had the cargo door, so I can't say for sure that it doesn't have one, but it has windows. So it's not a completed conversion.

After they did whatever they did to it at MEX, they painted it all-white. Okay, so that isn't completely-crazy, even if it will be going somewhere for a cargo door. But get this: they then painted "Boeing 767-300ER", in that Boeing typeface, near the tail over the new white paint. Does that sound like something anybody would do if the thing was going in a week to TLV for conversion? Me neither. It's possible, but it seems a little, well, extra.

So now the thing is at ILN, where it has been for over two weeks, newly-painted white, still having windows. We do know that CAM bought it as of March 23, 2020. We know that it hadn't changed hands yet when it flew to ILN from MIA, because Jet Test and Transport flew it up there for the prior owner. So I really don't know what's up with it. Is it going to Omni as a pax plane? But if so, why is it at ILN? Omni usually refurbs and outfits its aircraft at MZJ, as it did with N432AX (formerly N389AA). Is it going to TLV despite the fancier-than-necessary paint job? And if it's going for conversion, why not do it at MEX? Mexico is still working at a normal pace. Israel is not. Of the six aircraft that CAM has at TLV right now for conversion, 3 of them would be home by now under normal circumstances. Yes, the two ex-LATAM aircraft (304CM and 308CM) have taken longer than normal for reasons I can guess that have nothing to do with the virus, but the Covid slowdown in Israel is going to make the whole line even later than it already is. So if were going to be converted, MEX would have been a good place to finish it. As I say, I dunno. And inquiring minds are certainly curious...



Can confirm that N544LA does NOT have a door. Hasn’t been converted.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Mon Mar 30, 2020 6:47 am

autopiloton wrote:
Can confirm that N544LA does NOT have a door. Hasn’t been converted.


Thank you, Sir! :bigthumbsup:
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Mon Mar 30, 2020 6:49 am

And FWIW, four more DL 767-300s are coming to ILN tomorrow, presumably for temporary storage. Right now, it looks like: 1201P, 183DN, 178DN, and 185DN.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Mon Mar 30, 2020 12:05 pm

N394AN is scheduled to head over to TLV today from ILN. 3/30/20. That makes 7 aircraft over there in conversion.
 
ILNFlyer
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Mon Mar 30, 2020 12:22 pm

Unconfirmed, but ILN could be at 16 Amazon flight per night by the start of the fall.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:26 pm

I ordered 3 books about a week ago, and on Saturday a running phone carrier (can't use the indoor track at the Y these days). The books spent hours, even days sitting around various parts of the country. Now that they've got to western Washington the pace is picking up. One book is tracked/shipped(?) by Newgistics - who in the heck are they, google didn't seem to help? They are providing ZERO tracking information. The slow down in various transportation centers was likely lower priority than essential household items. For me the books which I normally would get from the library and running - well, essential items. LOL
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
Delta28L
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Mon Mar 30, 2020 3:29 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
I ordered 3 books about a week ago, and on Saturday a running phone carrier (can't use the indoor track at the Y these days). The books spent hours, even days sitting around various parts of the country. Now that they've got to western Washington the pace is picking up. One book is tracked/shipped(?) by Newgistics - who in the heck are they, google didn't seem to help? They are providing ZERO tracking information. The slow down in various transportation centers was likely lower priority than essential household items. For me the books which I normally would get from the library and running - well, essential items. LOL


I thought amazon wasn’t shipping nonessential products at normal pace. They’ve suspended Some prime shipments and nonessential items are being pushed back due to demand of other products
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Mon Mar 30, 2020 3:38 pm

I think just being a Prime member gives a little priority. Essential household items get first place in restocking and the variously named distribution centers. Non essential items can be very slow in restocking. It Amazon has they will ship it, it just might take longer. I think this conforms to what I have been reading here and in the media.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Mon Mar 30, 2020 3:43 pm

Once it's shipped, the choice of carrier may affect speed, but I don't think that the nature of the item shipped in any way affects how the carrier moves it. Newgistics does what AMZL does with the USPS -- just not as well. They pick up stuff, line haul it to a node near destination, then cart it to the destination postal DDU and your mailman takes it from there. Amazon in-house does this in less than 24 hours, typically. Newgistics can take a week.
 
jetblueguy22
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Mon Mar 30, 2020 3:59 pm

Delta28L wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
I ordered 3 books about a week ago, and on Saturday a running phone carrier (can't use the indoor track at the Y these days). The books spent hours, even days sitting around various parts of the country. Now that they've got to western Washington the pace is picking up. One book is tracked/shipped(?) by Newgistics - who in the heck are they, google didn't seem to help? They are providing ZERO tracking information. The slow down in various transportation centers was likely lower priority than essential household items. For me the books which I normally would get from the library and running - well, essential items. LOL


I thought amazon wasn’t shipping nonessential products at normal pace. They’ve suspended Some prime shipments and nonessential items are being pushed back due to demand of other products

They’re cranking everything out as fast as they can. My prime wardrobe was delayed, but everything else I’ve ordered that is “non essential” has come pretty much the same speed as normal, maybe +1 day. They’ve even beat their projections on a few items.

I think we’re starting to get to a point where things will drop off. Most of the panic buying will have subsided and they will feel the effects of people simply not having jobs. I’m sure they’ll still be heavy with orders but more like peak heavy than what this has been. It’s been crazy heavy the last two week.

Though as cases enter their FCs, I’m sure their network will shift with it.
Look at sweatpants guy. This is a 90 million dollar aircraft, not a Tallahassee strip club
 
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sunking737
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Mon Mar 30, 2020 4:04 pm

I have ordered many items from Amazon and have received them in a few days time. The only items taking a little longer are the laptop batteries I ordered. They arrive UPS vs USPS. I have some items 2 days sooner they Amazon said they would be in my hands. Course it helps we have a Amazon DC just south of the Twin Cities metro area. I ordered another battery yesterday. Amazon says I will have it by Thursday afternoon. I half expect to get it by Wednesday.
"Don't believe it unless its parked on the ramp, or printed in the schedule...SUBJECT TO CHANGE"

I'm a SUNDUCK......Worked for RC & SY @ MSP
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Mon Mar 30, 2020 6:10 pm

I see two of my books arrived at the local post office (3 blocks away) before 2am, but are not listed as out for delivery. Post Office must be packed with packages to deliver. An Amazon item ordered Saturday is out for delivery - it arrived at the post office a couple hours earlier.
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1337Delta764
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Mon Mar 30, 2020 7:26 pm

I know Walmart is using UPS for a few shipments now in addition to their primary carrier FedEx. I guess this gives them a bit of flexibility.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Mon Mar 30, 2020 9:59 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
I see two of my books arrived at the local post office (3 blocks away) before 2am, but are not listed as out for delivery. Post Office must be packed with packages to deliver. An Amazon item ordered Saturday is out for delivery - it arrived at the post office a couple hours earlier.


Usually with Parcel Direct, if the workshare partner (e.g. FedEx Smartpost, Amazon, Newgistics) gets the parcel to the DDU (Local Post Office) by a specified cutoff time (usually in the 7-8am range), it is guaranteed to be delivered that day. If your post office is breaking guarantee, then, yeah, they're swamped.

PS That's how UPS adds a day to Surepost (to avoid cannibalizing itself): it drops the package in the afternoon, usually.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 1:12 am

wjcandee wrote:
And FWIW, four more DL 767-300s are coming to ILN tomorrow, presumably for temporary storage. Right now, it looks like: 1201P, 183DN, 178DN, and 185DN.


Okay so these are indeed the 767-300s that arrived at ILN today (3/30/20).

Tomorrow, SEVEN are scheduled in to ILN.

184DN
1200K
172DN (this is coming in on a 9000-number while the rest of the ferries are on 3000-numbers; don't know significance if any)
171DZ
176DZ
178DZ (not to be confused with 178DN, which arrived today)
191DN

So we're up to 16 767-300s stored at ILN.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 1:24 am

N394AN is on its way to TLV from ILN right now (3/30/20).

Intriguingly, it is planned to make the whole trip nonstop, without the usual stop in SNN. Planned for an 11-1/4 hour nonstop flight.

Also interesting, it was planned for FL370, and climbed to that after a while at FL350. However, about 3:30 into the flight, as it crossed into the North Atlantic from the coast of Canada, it descended to FL280, where it remains as it approaches the British coast.
 
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Spacepope
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 2:34 am

wjcandee wrote:
N394AN is on its way to TLV from ILN right now (3/30/20).

Intriguingly, it is planned to make the whole trip nonstop, without the usual stop in SNN. Planned for an 11-1/4 hour nonstop flight.

Also interesting, it was planned for FL370, and climbed to that after a while at FL350. However, about 3:30 into the flight, as it crossed into the North Atlantic from the coast of Canada, it descended to FL280, where it remains as it approaches the British coast.

Crossing Manchester right now at 39000 feet. Headed south by southeast, interesting route. Must not be risking getting the crew quarantined on a stopover.
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MO11
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 8:45 pm

Amazon took delivery of N547RL on Monday (30).
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 8:51 pm

MO11 wrote:
Amazon took delivery of N547RL on Monday (30).


Cool! I wonder how long it will be before Sunny starts flying it. It already has the "Operated by Sunny" lettering on it. But I suspect it will still be a while.
 
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sunking737
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:26 pm

547RL has to go through conformity before SY can fly it. Takes a month or so.
"Don't believe it unless its parked on the ramp, or printed in the schedule...SUBJECT TO CHANGE"

I'm a SUNDUCK......Worked for RC & SY @ MSP
 
GoodRide
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:01 am

wjcandee wrote:
wjcandee wrote:
And FWIW, four more DL 767-300s are coming to ILN tomorrow, presumably for temporary storage. Right now, it looks like: 1201P, 183DN, 178DN, and 185DN.


Okay so these are indeed the 767-300s that arrived at ILN today (3/30/20).

Tomorrow, SEVEN are scheduled in to ILN.

184DN
1200K
172DN (this is coming in on a 9000-number while the rest of the ferries are on 3000-numbers; don't know significance if any)
171DZ
176DZ
178DZ (not to be confused with 178DN, which arrived today)
191DN

So we're up to 16 767-300s stored at ILN.


Is it possible we’re seeing airplanes being stored in ILN that were earmarked for sale to CAM eventually?
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Wed Apr 01, 2020 4:00 am

Personally, I think that it's more likely that these are being stored with an eye to their future return, depending of course on what happens in the world over the next 3-6 months. Right now, CAM has dibs on 15 767-300s owned by AA that will be retired soon. They have 7 767-300s in various stages of conversion in Israel. And they have 4 sitting in the desert that they now own. So that's 26. Then, they have N544LA (which may or may not get converted; might go to Omni) and JA8286 (already converted BCF), and N431AZ, all of which are still sitting in ILN. So 29 aircraft. No question that they have nevertheless been picking up onsies-twosies (like the LATAM aircraft) and sending them for conversion. But absorbing even the better of those DL aircraft would seem to be a lot given the limited capability of the IAI/Bedek conversion lines.

Right now, Amazon is on a tear trying to keep up with everything that everybody wants delivered to their homes. We're without question going into a recession (2 quarters of negative growth). If this virus peters out over the summer, or there is a viable intervention developed, or ways are found to cut spread without mass-quarantine (like they did in Singapore), and the economy can start moving in Q3, we'll come back strong. If not, it's likely that we won't see growth like we were seeing for a long time (for various economic and politial reasons), and Amazon may end up growing more slowly than projected, as then would the air network. (Latest word seems to be that touching people and then touching your face is the primary route of transmission and the aerosol infection route is less-significant, which may allow for prophylactic behavioral change that doesn't involve sitting at home -- but that's all gonna have to be fleshed out much more definitively first.)
 
jetblueguy22
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Wed Apr 01, 2020 4:20 am

wjcandee wrote:
Personally, I think that it's more likely that these are being stored with an eye to their future return, depending of course on what happens in the world over the next 3-6 months. Right now, CAM has dibs on 15 767-300s owned by AA that will be retired soon. They have 7 767-300s in various stages of conversion in Israel. And they have 4 sitting in the desert that they now own. So that's 26. Then, they have N544LA (which may or may not get converted; might go to Omni) and JA8286 (already converted BCF), and N431AZ, all of which are still sitting in ILN. So 29 aircraft. No question that they have nevertheless been picking up onsies-twosies (like the LATAM aircraft) and sending them for conversion. But absorbing even the better of those DL aircraft would seem to be a lot given the limited capability of the IAI/Bedek conversion lines.

Right now, Amazon is on a tear trying to keep up with everything that everybody wants delivered to their homes. We're without question going into a recession (2 quarters of negative growth). If this virus peters out over the summer, or there is a viable intervention developed, or ways are found to cut spread without mass-quarantine (like they did in Singapore), and the economy can start moving in Q3, we'll come back strong. If not, it's likely that we won't see growth like we were seeing for a long time (for various economic and politial reasons), and Amazon may end up growing more slowly than projected, as then would the air network. (Latest word seems to be that touching people and then touching your face is the primary route of transmission and the aerosol infection route is less-significant, which may allow for prophylactic behavioral change that doesn't involve sitting at home -- but that's all gonna have to be fleshed out much more definitively first.)

Personal belief not backed up by any facts - I think this virus will help Amazon during a recession better than anything else. People will eventually return to normal life, but I think it’s going to take the consumer a very long time to return to retail stores. Their growth will slow, and this is just a burst, but I don’t think this will slow them down, rather speed them up. Their relying a lot on outside carriers right now, that’s costing them a pretty penny. I’m betting they’d love another 15 aircraft right about now.
Look at sweatpants guy. This is a 90 million dollar aircraft, not a Tallahassee strip club
 
USAirKid
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Wed Apr 01, 2020 4:24 am

Just a random spitball, what’s the chance of Amazon getting AA or one of the US3 to operate their 763s for just belly cargo? AA has the planes, and Amazon has the demand...
 
jetblueguy22
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Wed Apr 01, 2020 4:48 am

USAirKid wrote:
Just a random spitball, what’s the chance of Amazon getting AA or one of the US3 to operate their 763s for just belly cargo? AA has the planes, and Amazon has the demand...

Payoff is probably pretty limited if you can’t get anything on the main deck. The capacity difference between topside and the bellies is pretty substantial
Look at sweatpants guy. This is a 90 million dollar aircraft, not a Tallahassee strip club
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Wed Apr 01, 2020 6:16 am

jetblueguy22 wrote:
Personal belief not backed up by any facts


Well, yeah. Because we don't know how effective isolation will be in limiting patient load. So we really don't know how long it's going to take before, for one reason or another, we can send people back to work. And people going back to work is what is going to be needed to drive future Amazon growth.

What is definitely happening right now is that there is intra-family spread as a result of the lockdown. How extensive the intra-family spread ends up being will drive the volume of most future cases for now. Flattening the curve by definition means spreading the cases over a longer period of time. Politicians will be disinclined, absent a significant public outcry or the discovery of an effective intervention, to open up until it's "safe" to call "all clear", and that will be too long, unfortunately, for the economy. A magic bullet is very-unlikely. Despite the relative-challenges of the overall public health system in China, the country has some of the smartest and most-relentless doctors and scientists in the world, and they were working hard on this before the US and Europe really were, so a "eureka moment" probably isn't right around the corner.

I agree that folks will be buying online and staying out of stores for a while. Interestingly, in NYC, an extraordinary slowdown in shoppers and office work occurred long before all the lockdown orders were in place. Those orders really are directed at the folks who needed to be told or made to behave in a way that most of us were already doing a week earlier. It was pretty-much a ghost town already when the orders came down. You are correct, I believe, that it will be a while before people can bring themselves to shop again. However, because so many people were out of work, it may take some time before they can and will spend like they were doing. Putting money directly in the hands of people is smart because they will indeed spend it -- and fast -- which is what the economy will need, but they're not getting enough to make up for what is lost already.

In any event, you're right -- it's an opinion. It is BASED on facts, but it isn't BACKED UP by facts because this post is already too long and I'm not gonna write you a 20-page annotated treatise so you can "fact check" me. I hope that your opinion is the correct one, and I understand what you're basing it on.

I'm looking forward to talking about all the new planes that Amazon is going to hopefully still add in the next two years, which I believe will be more than 25 of the widebody variety, and we'll see how many narrowbodies and how cost-effective and flexible those turn out to be, particularly when put into the hands of an operator that has fewer internal/operational challenges.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Wed Apr 01, 2020 1:45 pm

Here in Kitsap county are c25K each civilian workers and uniformed ones. Because they are critical for national defense work is going on full bore, but with careful monitoring. About 40% are not coming into work: work from home, monitored and showing symptoms so tested and waiting for results, vulnerable to the virus (old, heart or respiratory things), quarantined for other reasons, actually sick, or on vacation. Social distancing at work is emphasized if at all possible. So far no hot spots of infections are known or publicized. This amounts to a national unintended experiment. It could be model for industry throughout the US. The difference is that the 40% not working are being paid as I understand it. So it is not cheap.

This is obviously not the case with the carrier in Guam.
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yochai
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Wed Apr 01, 2020 7:29 pm

Both N430CJ and N153DL scheduled to preform test flights at TLV tomorrow
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Wed Apr 01, 2020 8:31 pm

yochai wrote:
Both N430CJ and N153DL scheduled to preform test flights at TLV tomorrow


Woo-hoo for Cargojet! Only 9.5 months in conversion!!
 
KFTG
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Wed Apr 01, 2020 8:44 pm

Would the 767-400ER make a good freight hauler?
I would not be surprised to see UA and DL offload their fleets soon.
 
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Spacepope
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Wed Apr 01, 2020 11:48 pm

KFTG wrote:
Would the 767-400ER make a good freight hauler?
I would not be surprised to see UA and DL offload their fleets soon.


Would there even be enough airframes to spread out the cost of the STC for the conversion?
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wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Thu Apr 02, 2020 12:09 am

Spacepope wrote:
KFTG wrote:
Would the 767-400ER make a good freight hauler?
I would not be surprised to see UA and DL offload their fleets soon.


Would there even be enough airframes to spread out the cost of the STC for the conversion?


That's the issue: they would need another STC. How involved that would be, I don't know, but it's not nothing. Moreover, the -400s, like the 757-300s, are efficient as hell and, if the traffic is there, frames that I would think to be the last of their type to leave.
 
jetblueguy22
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Thu Apr 02, 2020 12:47 am

wjcandee wrote:
Spacepope wrote:
KFTG wrote:
Would the 767-400ER make a good freight hauler?
I would not be surprised to see UA and DL offload their fleets soon.


Would there even be enough airframes to spread out the cost of the STC for the conversion?


That's the issue: they would need another STC. How involved that would be, I don't know, but it's not nothing. Moreover, the -400s, like the 757-300s, are efficient as hell and, if the traffic is there, frames that I would think to be the last of their type to leave.

It would be something to see. That would put it pretty close to the MD-11 volume wise. Probably great for domestic routes.

A guy can dream
Look at sweatpants guy. This is a 90 million dollar aircraft, not a Tallahassee strip club
 
LightningZ71
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Thu Apr 02, 2020 3:34 pm

While I can see that the efficiency would be obvious, is Amazon already regularly filling the 763s all the way to max volume for each flight in an off-peak situation? I understand that they might be overflowing at the moment, but, under normal conditions, are they really maxing them out?
 
CALMSP
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Thu Apr 02, 2020 4:04 pm

LightningZ71 wrote:
While I can see that the efficiency would be obvious, is Amazon already regularly filling the 763s all the way to max volume for each flight in an off-peak situation? I understand that they might be overflowing at the moment, but, under normal conditions, are they really maxing them out?


no, they are not. Thats why I see their future as the 738, not the size of the 763 as the backbone, especially as they continue to expand their DC/FC's, it should drive down the need for more goods to be flown from coast to coast.
 
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yochai
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Sat Apr 04, 2020 4:19 pm

N544LA due into TLV on Tuesday morning from ILN.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Sat Apr 04, 2020 7:41 pm

yochai wrote:
N544LA due into TLV on Tuesday morning from ILN.


And there is the answer! Thank you, Yochai!!
 
GoodRide
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Mon Apr 06, 2020 9:05 am

CALMSP wrote:
LightningZ71 wrote:
While I can see that the efficiency would be obvious, is Amazon already regularly filling the 763s all the way to max volume for each flight in an off-peak situation? I understand that they might be overflowing at the moment, but, under normal conditions, are they really maxing them out?


no, they are not. Thats why I see their future as the 738, not the size of the 763 as the backbone, especially as they continue to expand their DC/FC's, it should drive down the need for more goods to be flown from coast to coast.


On a typical Amazon flight the 76 cubes out well under max payload. In my experience, the heaviest loads come out of ONT in the 75-80k range. That has changed dramatically, and planes are now moving 100k plus across all stations. Empty cans do fly..mostly to reposition elsewhere into the system, but the calculus does appear to be changing just looking at weights alone.
 
KFTG
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Mon Apr 06, 2020 9:33 am

Spacepope wrote:
Would there even be enough airframes to spread out the cost of the STC for the conversion?

I'm not sure, but if UA + DL offload both of their fleets of 400s to CAM or similar, that's 37 aircraft.
If they could get their hands on the Bahrain jet, that's an addt'l unit for total of 38.
 
rdt757
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Mon Apr 06, 2020 12:17 pm

GoodRide wrote:
CALMSP wrote:
LightningZ71 wrote:
While I can see that the efficiency would be obvious, is Amazon already regularly filling the 763s all the way to max volume for each flight in an off-peak situation? I understand that they might be overflowing at the moment, but, under normal conditions, are they really maxing them out?


no, they are not. Thats why I see their future as the 738, not the size of the 763 as the backbone, especially as they continue to expand their DC/FC's, it should drive down the need for more goods to be flown from coast to coast.


On a typical Amazon flight the 76 cubes out well under max payload. In my experience, the heaviest loads come out of ONT in the 75-80k range. That has changed dramatically, and planes are now moving 100k plus across all stations. Empty cans do fly..mostly to reposition elsewhere into the system, but the calculus does appear to be changing just looking at weights alone.


I looked back at loads from the 2nd week in October 2019, outbound flights from ONT were averaging 57,000 lbs at 63% volume on the 763.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Mon Apr 06, 2020 12:48 pm

N544LA is flying to TLV today (4/6/20). I notice that, like the last tail sent there, it is flight-planned nonstop to TLV from ILN. Most past flights have stopped in SNN, presumably to do it with a smaller crew and to save total fuel. But I guess as a result of the Virus, they are thinking that it is best to eliminate the stop.
 
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yochai
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Mon Apr 06, 2020 12:57 pm

wjcandee wrote:
N544LA is flying to TLV today (4/6/20). I notice that, like the last tail sent there, it is flight-planned nonstop to TLV from ILN. Most past flights have stopped in SNN, presumably to do it with a smaller crew and to save total fuel. But I guess as a result of the Virus, they are thinking that it is best to eliminate the stop.


N430CJ as well was delivered to YHM without stopping at SNN. Seems like all TLV inbound/outbound now skip SNN, with N153DL due for delivery probably as well.
 
LightningZ71
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Mon Apr 06, 2020 2:56 pm

On the 764 conversions, what I'm seeing is that some routes are indeed volume limited on the 763s, justifying the use of a frame with higher volume limits but not significantly higher MTOW limits. There may be a place for the 764 in amazon's network after all. I guess the question gets reduced to this:
Is there enough demand in the global freight industry for a 764 conversion to support converting 30 frames or so (I'm assuming that at least a couple will be found to be unsuitable) at a high enough price to get back the investment put into certifying the conversion and then some to net the conversion company at least some profit?

Alternatively, is it better to chase Boeing to produce the shortened and GEnX reengined 764 derivative that was reportedly proposed in another thread on this site?

Personally, I believe that , with the likely reduction in global air travel that will be the result of this pandemic, smaller widebodies like the 764 will see their value increase and the airlines that currently operate them will fly every last moment of usability out of them.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Tue Apr 07, 2020 7:14 am

wjcandee wrote:
N544LA is flying to TLV today (4/6/20). I notice that, like the last tail sent there, it is flight-planned nonstop to TLV from ILN. Most past flights have stopped in SNN, presumably to do it with a smaller crew and to save total fuel. But I guess as a result of the Virus, they are thinking that it is best to eliminate the stop.


Well, looks like it didn't make the trip today. Maybe soon.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Tue Apr 07, 2020 7:28 am

So all of the AA 767-300s are now in ROW (there were 15 still flying as of 3/18, but they started moving to the desert on the 24th, and by the 31st, they were all there).
 
wjcandee
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Joined: Mon Jun 05, 2000 12:50 am

Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Tue Apr 07, 2020 7:33 am

yochai wrote:
Both N430CJ and N153DL scheduled to preform test flights at TLV tomorrow


And 153DL got hers on 4/6/20, making two trips. Only about 21,500 cycles on her, but around 114,000 hours. (That's roughly the age of a lot of a.net users, or at least seems that way sometimes... Just kiddin'...and certainly not on THIS thread!)
 
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1337Delta764
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 1:48 am

I just noticed my ZIP code was recently removed from the UPS and FedEx Delivery Area Surcharge lists. I'm not surprised considering I see UPS and FedEx trucks coming into my neighborhood all the time.
 
wjcandee
Posts: 8963
Joined: Mon Jun 05, 2000 12:50 am

Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 2:30 am

Amazon is ending Amazon Shipping on June 1. This was an experimental service, apparently offered only in London and LA, in which Amazon picked shipments up from other than its distribution centers and delivered them through its organic network. Kind of the opposite of drop shipping by sellers/suppliers, or maybe "drop shipping to Amazon network". In any event, they need the capacity to handle their own current volume, and so are putting those folks back onto UPS or FedEx. Not gonna change the world, but shows how they feel they need every available inch of their vehicles to handle the home-delivery volume they are experiencing.

Meanwhile, I have ordered a lot of Ebay recently. Most of it comes by Priority Mail. Most of it comes exactly in two days as it should. But I have had two deliveries that pass through the notorious Detroit facilities, and they have performed as advertised. One sat in Detroit for 5 days before traveling across town to...Detroit!! Maybe it will finally get on a plane from there, but I'm not holding my breath. Two years ago, the USPS IG audited this swamp and made suggestions, which evidently haven't been implemented. If you go on the IG complaint page, this center tops them all, and all the complaints are the same as mine. I have such respect for the USPS, but it is very-much not like a real business when it comes to cracking skulls at problem centers.
 
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1337Delta764
Topic Author
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:44 am

wjcandee wrote:
Meanwhile, I have ordered a lot of Ebay recently. Most of it comes by Priority Mail. Most of it comes exactly in two days as it should. But I have had two deliveries that pass through the notorious Detroit facilities, and they have performed as advertised. One sat in Detroit for 5 days before traveling across town to...Detroit!! Maybe it will finally get on a plane from there, but I'm not holding my breath. Two years ago, the USPS IG audited this swamp and made suggestions, which evidently haven't been implemented. If you go on the IG complaint page, this center tops them all, and all the complaints are the same as mine. I have such respect for the USPS, but it is very-much not like a real business when it comes to cracking skulls at problem centers.


I recently had a Kohl's package shipped via USPS First Class that took 6 days to move between the San Bernardino CA Distribution Center and the Phoenix AZ Distribution Center Annex. Since this is a Zone 4 shipment, it most likely went via ground transportation (Local Zone and Zones 1-4 are usually via ground, while Zones 5 and up are always via air), but usually USPS First Class takes 2-3 days. My previous two Kohl's packages shipped via USPS First Class from San Bernardino didn't take this long. Interestingly, Kohl's used to ship the majority of their packages to me via FedEx SmartPost, but starting this year it seems like they switched to USPS First Class for those under 1 lb.
 
HPRamper
Posts: 5020
Joined: Sat May 14, 2005 4:22 am

Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 9:35 am

1337Delta764 wrote:

I recently had a Kohl's package shipped via USPS First Class that took 6 days to move between the San Bernardino CA Distribution Center and the Phoenix AZ Distribution Center Annex. Since this is a Zone 4 shipment, it most likely went via ground transportation (Local Zone and Zones 1-4 are usually via ground, while Zones 5 and up are always via air), but usually USPS First Class takes 2-3 days. My previous two Kohl's packages shipped via USPS First Class from San Bernardino didn't take this long. Interestingly, Kohl's used to ship the majority of their packages to me via FedEx SmartPost, but starting this year it seems like they switched to USPS First Class for those under 1 lb.

A natural move, as Smartpost was discontinued last year.
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