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autopiloton
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Sat Jul 11, 2020 1:47 pm

I guess what struck me as odd is that they are marked “stored” on the other website. Usually if they are just doing Mx they aren’t marked that way. I’ve seen the planes that are transitioning to Amazon or other carriers be categorized that way which got me wondering. Or it could simply be an error.


wjcandee wrote:
autopiloton wrote:
Any idea what ABX/CAM is doing with 363CM and 364CM? I’m assuming they could easily be moved to Amazon/ATI. Would be two pretty much ready to go planes...just need some paint. They have already been on the ATI certificate before. Maybe ATSG is going after more international DHL contracts?


With those two down, it doesn't seem like there's slack in the ABX fleet at this point, and I'm thinking that ABX stopped running something in order to do the nice DHL 2-plane European rotation that goes CVG-ORD-EMA-CGN-EMA-ORD-CVG. It takes 30-something hours to do the round trip: Depart morning of day 1, return evening of day 2. So they're using two planes. They started it with a 767-200 (N312AA, the least-traveled bird in the ABX 762 fleet), but quickly moved to using two 767-300s. So they really don't have spares at the moment, as far as I can see. How long DHL keeps that route going is of course the $50 question, which would affect ABX fleet planning.

364CM is at GSO, and should be done with maintenance any time now; it's usually 5-8 weeks for the bi-annual checkup when they send them to GSO. Depends on what ends up needing to be done. No reason to think it won't continue in service at ABX.

363CM is a bit of a mystery to me. It went to GSO on 3/1/20, spent seven weeks there, and came back to ILN on 4/22. Normally it would spend a couple of days there at most before going back into service. So either they found something at GSO that ATSG decided to work on at ILN, or there were always plans to do additional work at ILN (bulkhead change or something), which seems unlikely, or CAM is going to lease the aircraft to somebody else. Or a million other possibilities. I just don't know. I do think that if the aircraft was going to another carrier, it would have at least gone to paint by now, because it doesn't take 11 weeks to do conformity, but again...who knows?

As to ATSG going after anything, it has never impressed me that they're aggressive salespeople; more like stuff comes to them. Don't know why, because they do have a safe, very-reliable operator in ABX, with solid, experienced pilots, even if there is a disproportionate amount of labor drama for a carrier of its size.
 
wnflyguy
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Sat Jul 11, 2020 10:56 pm

Well according to LGB sources Amazon is now looking into LGB with the departure and soon to be 17 available slots. These slots would help feed it's Orange County Ca disruption center.

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sunking737
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Sun Jul 12, 2020 7:51 am

The question is what city or cities would Amazon fly to from LGB? AFW, CVG, PDX?? What size planes 767 or 737 or both
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Delta28L
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Sun Jul 12, 2020 10:21 am

sunking737 wrote:
The question is what city or cities would Amazon fly to from LGB? AFW, CVG, PDX?? What size planes 767 or 737 or both


Most likely CVG since that’s their main hub. Probably a flight that goes through AFW since that’s their next closest regional hub and then a flight from one of the east coast stations like BWI would be my guess if they can get enough slots.
 
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1337Delta764
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Mon Jul 13, 2020 1:57 pm

It looks like Amazon is back to using USPS in my area, especially for bulky items.

Does anyone know the current Amazon Air schedule into PHX?
 
Delta28L
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Mon Jul 13, 2020 2:42 pm

1337Delta764 wrote:
It looks like Amazon is back to using USPS in my area, especially for bulky items.

Does anyone know the current Amazon Air schedule into PHX?


I see AFW ILN CVG ABE ORD TPA all ran within the last 24 hours
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Tue Jul 14, 2020 12:54 pm

We get a lot of USPS, but in two variants. Amazon delivers to our local post office (3 blocks away), and if I track the package there are a lot of details, or.. first carrier is listed as USPS and details are sparse to none. The later could be a 3rd party seller who takes it to their local post office??
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1337Delta764
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Tue Jul 14, 2020 3:07 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
We get a lot of USPS, but in two variants. Amazon delivers to our local post office (3 blocks away), and if I track the package there are a lot of details, or.. first carrier is listed as USPS and details are sparse to none. The later could be a 3rd party seller who takes it to their local post office??


The way the Amazon arrangement with the USPS works is that they are presorted by Amazon to DDU level via their ground linehaul network or Amazon Air. You generally will find more details when tracking via Amazon vs. the USPS website prior to being dropped off at the DDU. Exceptions include some Alaska/Hawaii/Puerto Rico which are shipped via USPS Priority Mail, and some non-Prime shipments which are shipped via USPS First Class Mail. Third-party sellers who fulfill their own shipments, on the other hand, are shipped end-to-end via USPS.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Tue Jul 14, 2020 3:27 pm

1337Delta764 wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
We get a lot of USPS, but in two variants. Amazon delivers to our local post office (3 blocks away), and if I track the package there are a lot of details, or.. first carrier is listed as USPS and details are sparse to none. The later could be a 3rd party seller who takes it to their local post office??


The way the Amazon arrangement with the USPS works is that they are presorted by Amazon to DDU level via their ground linehaul network or Amazon Air. You generally will find more details when tracking via Amazon vs. the USPS website prior to being dropped off at the DDU. Third-party sellers who fulfill their own shipments, on the other hand, are shipped end-to-end via USPS (exceptions being UPS SurePost/Mail Innovations, FedEx SmartPost, and DHL eCommerce).


Very good summary! So the way the air network originally worked was exactly this. The idea was to bring pallets of packages by air from non-driving-distance DCs to Amazon's PSCs (then called Postal Sorting Centers); to layer into Amazon's existing network of vehicles that ran from the PSCs to local Post Offices. The PSCs are lightning-fast at moving packages through and getting them out the door to the vehicles that take them to the Post Offices, so Amazon turned what was a 2-or-3-or-5 day option for others (USPS Last Mile) into an overnight process from the time the package arrived at the PSC. Unfortunately, the people who keep trying to find ways to undermine Amazon used fuzzy math to argue that Amazon was "profiting" off the Postal Service, and insisted that rates be raised, so Amazon, the USPS's largest customer, pulled back a lot of volume and brought it in house instead. (Finally, the other day, a study came out that showed that the Postal Service, with the Amazon volume, would have been profitable but for the pension obligations for long-retired government employees that it was saddled with when privatized, unlike every other similar government privatization. It wasn't losing money from operations; indeed, it was making a lot of money, just not enough by billions to cover that pension obligation.) So now the network operates similarly, with the air component still being delivered to the PSCs, but it gets distributed more to organic Amazon and outside contractors, and less to the USPS. The USPS still does an enormous amount of Amazon last-mile in NYC, however. Huge.
 
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1337Delta764
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Tue Jul 14, 2020 4:23 pm

Also, the USPS still delivers the majority of rural Amazon shipments. AMZL mainly does the major cities.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Fri Jul 17, 2020 9:04 pm

Interesting development with N363CM -- is it going to Amazon or somebody else?

This is a 767-300, a 30-year-old ex-Qantas non-FADEC aircraft, converted and owned by CAM, that is/was on the ABX Air certificate. It has been on the ground at ILN for 3 months, after its return from a 7-week maintenance visit to GSO.

It went to do a test flight at ILN today, but instead of using an ABX flight number, it flew under its tail number. That's what CAM does with its aircraft when they're between airlines.

Could be a mistake, but could indicate something afoot. I know that several airlines are looking to lease 767-300s, and I think that CAM is on-track to fufill its Amazon requirements this year from already-converted aircraft, so the possibility of it going to Amazon is likely remote. Interesting, though. No currently-pending number change reported by the FAA.

This also raises questions, I guess, about N364CM, its companion ex-Qantas aircraft (363 was VH-OGF and 364 was VH-OGE), which is now in maintenance at GSO. Will be interesting to see whether they move as a pair.
 
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sunking737
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Fri Jul 17, 2020 9:48 pm

You do realize that they read our posts and they are playing with our minds...???
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Allee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Fri Jul 17, 2020 9:52 pm

wjcandee wrote:
Interesting development with N363CM -- is it going to Amazon or somebody else?

This is a 767-300, a 30-year-old ex-Qantas non-FADEC aircraft, converted and owned by CAM, that is/was on the ABX Air certificate. It has been on the ground at ILN for 3 months, after its return from a 7-week maintenance visit to GSO.

It went to do a test flight at ILN today, but instead of using an ABX flight number, it flew under its tail number. That's what CAM does with its aircraft when they're between airlines.

Could be a mistake, but could indicate something afoot. I know that several airlines are looking to lease 767-300s, and I think that CAM is on-track to fufill its Amazon requirements this year from already-converted aircraft, so the possibility of it going to Amazon is likely remote. Interesting, though. No currently-pending number change reported by the FAA.

This also raises questions, I guess, about N364CM, its companion ex-Qantas aircraft (363 was VH-OGF and 364 was VH-OGE), which is now in maintenance at GSO. Will be interesting to see whether they move as a pair.


If you look on FR24 and look up N363CM, it says Mas Air
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Fri Jul 17, 2020 10:08 pm

Allee wrote:
If you look on FR24 and look up N363CM, it says Mas Air


You, Sir, are a wizard! That's a great find. I wonder how they got that info, though, since it doesn't appear on airfleets, planespotters or flightaware. That makes sense, though. MAS was down to like 1 aircraft not too long ago. They did have some weird arrangement that they were trying to do with 21 Air involving sharing an aircraft last year. Don't know how that turned out.
 
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1337Delta764
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Sat Jul 18, 2020 2:49 am

Amazon will be opening two more fulfillment centers in the Phoenix area this year, AZA4 in Phoenix and GYR1 in Goodyear. AZA4 is believed to be a Non-Sortable FC, while the role of GYR1 is currently unknown. AZA4 should open this quarter, while GYR1 is expected to open in the fourth quarter.

I wonder why Amazon is putting so many Non-Sortable FCs here in the Phoenix area. We have PHX5, PHX7, and now AZA4. For Sortable, the main FC is PHX6, although TUS2 in Tucson also handles a lot of the demand as well (and only TUS2 is an Amazon Robotics Sortable). PHX3 used to be Sortable but is now Apparel and Footwear (although it is temporarily being used to stock some essential Sortable items due to COVID-19). Are people really buying a lot of big bags of pet food here in Arizona? Patio umbrellas? Even large fairy wings for a fairy costume?
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Sun Jul 19, 2020 11:54 pm

So N457AZ is on its way back from paint at Dean Baldwin at ROW. It looks like that's going to be the 8/1/20 aircraft rather than N431AZ, the ex-ANA-Cargo BCF that we were told would be the 8/1 aircraft. 457AZ was supposed to be the 9/1 aircraft, but given the timing of the paint, I think it's fair to assume that there has been a shift. It takes about 2 weeks to paint a 767-300 (exactly 2 weeks on this one), and so it's too late to send 431AZ off for paint now if it is to go into service by 8/1. Given that the two non-FADEC ex-ANA-Cargo BCFs (431AZ and 433AZ) have been sitting around ILN since November and March, respectively, it's interesting to see 457AZ move ahead on the in-service date. OTOH, they're all going into service for Amazon, and they're already converted, and somebody has to sit, so I guess it doesn't matter in what order the in-service dates happen.
 
MKIAZ
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Mon Jul 20, 2020 2:27 am

1337Delta764 wrote:
Amazon will be opening two more fulfillment centers in the Phoenix area this year, AZA4 in Phoenix and GYR1 in Goodyear. AZA4 is believed to be a Non-Sortable FC, while the role of GYR1 is currently unknown. AZA4 should open this quarter, while GYR1 is expected to open in the fourth quarter.

I wonder why Amazon is putting so many Non-Sortable FCs here in the Phoenix area. We have PHX5, PHX7, and now AZA4. For Sortable, the main FC is PHX6, although TUS2 in Tucson also handles a lot of the demand as well (and only TUS2 is an Amazon Robotics Sortable). PHX3 used to be Sortable but is now Apparel and Footwear (although it is temporarily being used to stock some essential Sortable items due to COVID-19). Are people really buying a lot of big bags of pet food here in Arizona? Patio umbrellas? Even large fairy wings for a fairy costume?


Perhaps due to quicker construction times and cheaper costs they are using those to meet demand in CA while they build out more warehouses in CA. They appear to be in a pretty serious inventory crunch this year. I doubt shoppers will be doing much in person black Friday shopping. They are definitely rolling out extreme incentives for sellers to get stuff sold and not sit on it.
 
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1337Delta764
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Mon Jul 20, 2020 2:31 am

MKIAZ wrote:
1337Delta764 wrote:
Amazon will be opening two more fulfillment centers in the Phoenix area this year, AZA4 in Phoenix and GYR1 in Goodyear. AZA4 is believed to be a Non-Sortable FC, while the role of GYR1 is currently unknown. AZA4 should open this quarter, while GYR1 is expected to open in the fourth quarter.

I wonder why Amazon is putting so many Non-Sortable FCs here in the Phoenix area. We have PHX5, PHX7, and now AZA4. For Sortable, the main FC is PHX6, although TUS2 in Tucson also handles a lot of the demand as well (and only TUS2 is an Amazon Robotics Sortable). PHX3 used to be Sortable but is now Apparel and Footwear (although it is temporarily being used to stock some essential Sortable items due to COVID-19). Are people really buying a lot of big bags of pet food here in Arizona? Patio umbrellas? Even large fairy wings for a fairy costume?


Perhaps due to quicker construction times and cheaper costs they are using those to meet demand in CA while they build out more warehouses in CA. They appear to be in a pretty serious inventory crunch this year. I doubt shoppers will be doing much in person black Friday shopping. They are definitely rolling out extreme incentives for sellers to get stuff sold and not sit on it.


I know most of the warehouses in the Inland Empire are Sortable (with ONT6 in Moreno Valley being Apparel and Footwear); the Non-Sortable warehouses there are ONT9 (Redlands, CA), SNA4 (Rialto, CA), and LGB6 (Riverside, CA).

Also, soon the new Albuquerque and El Paso FCs will probably handle some of the Phoenix area demand as well. The Albuquerque FC will be an Amazon Robotics Sortable; no word on El Paso.
 
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B350pilot
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Tue Jul 21, 2020 1:08 am

gents, any new intel on the 12 plane lease to Amazon? which company will operate them? Atlas, ATI, etc ? Thank you

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/ ... ers-Amazon
 
enplaned
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Tue Jul 21, 2020 1:45 am

1337Delta764 wrote:
Amazon will be opening two more fulfillment centers in the Phoenix area this year, AZA4 in Phoenix and GYR1 in Goodyear. AZA4 is believed to be a Non-Sortable FC, while the role of GYR1 is currently unknown. AZA4 should open this quarter, while GYR1 is expected to open in the fourth quarter.

I wonder why Amazon is putting so many Non-Sortable FCs here in the Phoenix area. We have PHX5, PHX7, and now AZA4. For Sortable, the main FC is PHX6, although TUS2 in Tucson also handles a lot of the demand as well (and only TUS2 is an Amazon Robotics Sortable). PHX3 used to be Sortable but is now Apparel and Footwear (although it is temporarily being used to stock some essential Sortable items due to COVID-19). Are people really buying a lot of big bags of pet food here in Arizona? Patio umbrellas? Even large fairy wings for a fairy costume?


Non-sorts are heavy/bulky and, I'd guess, generally slower-moving. So, may simply be that this is inventory backing deliveries to the SoCal area. Perhaps lower cost of storage makes it worthwhile relative to stocking this stuff in higher priced SoCal real estate. And my guess is you can probably stock inventory for SoCal, AZ, NV and NM pretty efficiently. Not forgetting El Paso, TX.

When I stacked packages onto trailers at an Amazon FC in PHX, a lot of them were headed into Southern Cal.
 
jreeves96
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Tue Jul 21, 2020 2:02 am

B350pilot wrote:
gents, any new intel on the 12 plane lease to Amazon? which company will operate them? Atlas, ATI, etc ? Thank you

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/ ... ers-Amazon


I would assume ATI since it's an ATSG lease...
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Tue Jul 21, 2020 2:52 am

B350pilot wrote:
gents, any new intel on the 12 plane lease to Amazon? which company will operate them? Atlas, ATI, etc ? Thank you

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/ ... ers-Amazon


As Jreeves said, it's a fair bet that it's ATI. But it hasn't formally been decided. The leases can come from anywhere, the operator is up to Amazon. (I should say that it's up to Amazon as between ATSG and Atlas. I don't think they weigh in, at least overtly, as to which ATSG airline should get the business.)

That said, one of the 12 actually was delivered as part of this year's additions, and it went to ATI. So it's the other 11 we don't technically know about. Could be some get flown by ABX. Could be some get flown by Atlas. Don't think there's likely to be a carrier involved other than the incumbent ones. While Amazon is quick to make a change when people are not performing, they're also loyal to those who do perform, throughout their business.
 
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Tue Jul 21, 2020 3:54 am

wjcandee wrote:
Enplaned, very-well argued. I appreciate the back and forth. Agreed it's more complex than one might think. I do continue to think, though, that if you have the opportunity to buy and convert 25 or more virtually-identical 767-300s, bought new and continually-maintained by one of the best airlines on the planet, the fact that they have a non-common engine with the rest of your fleet shouldn't stop you from doing it.

25 similar aircraft are plenty to overcome operational uncertainty. There are enough to buy spare engines, components (valves, seals, and the parts that vary).

The problem of a mixed fleet is if one of those parts fails and a spare isn't available. Many can be pinned open (or closed) which costs fuel burn (anti-ice vales pinned open or turbine clearance control valves pinned closed), but that isn't desirable for long.

If for example UA were to sell their 766s, the oldest has under 120,000 hours and under 20,000 cycles (put registration, minus N and a date range to find maintenance records that have hours and cycles):

https://av-info.faa.gov/sdrx/Query.aspx

I would bet Amazon would buy 25 Pratt powered aircraft for the right investment. Note: I know no reason UA we would sell, just hypothetical.

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wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Tue Jul 21, 2020 5:05 am

So, interestingly, ATI is planning to run N605DL from ILN to CVG tonight. That's one of ATI's 4 757Fs, that it used to run for DHL. I know that ATSG has been trying to find work for them, either as flown by ATI or otherwise. I understand they have been offered for dry-lease to a number of customers. So it's a thrill to see it moving, still on the ATI certificate, to be used for something. Don't know who the customer is -- could Amazon be looking at 757s? -- or maybe DHL has a temporary need that this 757 will be asked to fill. Regardless, nice to see her back in the air with ATI nearly 3 months after DHL ended its contract for them.

Update: Looks like the flight plan has been taken down after departure was moved a few times. (Just like the passenger airlines!). Also interesting.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Tue Jul 21, 2020 2:22 pm

I continue to be puzzled at the high percent of my purchases which are flown to the Seattle area. I am talking about everyday sorts of things. Potato Chips, jams, spices, denims, food grater. If they are not two-day delivery they sit back East (or Texas or Ohio) for a couple days, then suddenly on a plane and to my house. The algorithms to do all of this are simply mind bending. Obviously those thousands of highly paid Amazon workers in Seattle figure out the cheapest way to send things to particular addresses, and planes are often the answer.
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MajMattMason
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Tue Jul 21, 2020 3:56 pm

wjcandee wrote:
So, interestingly, ATI is planning to run N605DL from ILN to CVG tonight. That's one of ATI's 4 757Fs, that it used to run for DHL. I know that ATSG has been trying to find work for them, either as flown by ATI or otherwise. I understand they have been offered for dry-lease to a number of customers. So it's a thrill to see it moving, still on the ATI certificate, to be used for something. Don't know who the customer is -- could Amazon be looking at 757s? -- or maybe DHL has a temporary need that this 757 will be asked to fill. Regardless, nice to see her back in the air with ATI nearly 3 months after DHL ended its contract for them.

Update: Looks like the flight plan has been taken down after departure was moved a few times. (Just like the passenger airlines!). Also interesting.


The customer is DHL.

Not surprised it’s delayed. Airplanes like to be run, not sit for months on end. And these are old work horses!!
 
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1337Delta764
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Tue Jul 21, 2020 7:18 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
I continue to be puzzled at the high percent of my purchases which are flown to the Seattle area. I am talking about everyday sorts of things. Potato Chips, jams, spices, denims, food grater. If they are not two-day delivery they sit back East (or Texas or Ohio) for a couple days, then suddenly on a plane and to my house. The algorithms to do all of this are simply mind bending. Obviously those thousands of highly paid Amazon workers in Seattle figure out the cheapest way to send things to particular addresses, and planes are often the answer.


I actually heard somewhere the average cost per package for Amazon Air is around $6 vs. about $6.75 for UPS Ground and $8 for UPS 2nd Day Air at Amazon's rates, however, it didn't specify whether the last mile carrier was AMZL or USPS.

BTW I heard the ground linehaul cost per package with USPS as the last mile carrier is about $4.55. Also, the old FedEx rates were about $7.25 for Ground/Home Delivery and $10 for Express 2Day.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Wed Jul 22, 2020 12:08 am

So N363CM was on the board to go to MEX tonight, so I guess Allee was correct (as he always is): MAS Air Cargo. I don't see where it would have been painted, so I guess that is going to happen there? Or they'll just deliver it in various shades of white applied at ILN, to be covered with decals. Looks like it's now not going tonight, but it will eventually.

And it looks like N605DL (ATI 757F) is giving it another try tonight. MajMattMason, who knows about this stuff, says it's going to run for DHL. Interesting to see how they'll use it, since they so recently caused ATI to park it.
 
MO11
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Wed Jul 22, 2020 1:03 am

wjcandee wrote:

And it looks like N605DL (ATI 757F) is giving it another try tonight. MajMattMason, who knows about this stuff, says it's going to run for DHL. Interesting to see how they'll use it, since they so recently caused ATI to park it.


I noticed yesterday that SOO917, which normally flies YWG-MKE-CVG, went nonstop. GTI ferried a 767 to MKE to make up the MKE-CVG trip. Looks like the same thing is going to happen today with SOO917. I wonder if that MKE trip was supposed to be the 757?
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Wed Jul 22, 2020 1:27 am

MO11 wrote:
wjcandee wrote:

And it looks like N605DL (ATI 757F) is giving it another try tonight. MajMattMason, who knows about this stuff, says it's going to run for DHL. Interesting to see how they'll use it, since they so recently caused ATI to park it.


I noticed yesterday that SOO917, which normally flies YWG-MKE-CVG, went nonstop. GTI ferried a 767 to MKE to make up the MKE-CVG trip. Looks like the same thing is going to happen today with SOO917. I wonder if that MKE trip was supposed to be the 757?


You see everything!!

Interestingly, 656GT is going to make the CVG-MKE run tonight at 8-something PM, and 605DL is scheduled to arrive CVG from ILN at 9:37pm. That could mean one thing, or it could mean something else.

What it does seem is that DHL made some schedule changes starting yesterday.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Wed Jul 22, 2020 3:21 am

And it looks like GTI covering that MKE run again tonight was prescient. 605DL's departure time slipped and slipped and again cancelled. Maybe ATI should plan to run it over to CVG whenever it's actually ready? I'm guessing they had planned for the crew that flies it from ILN to fly it to wherever after it gets to CVG. But that's not allowing them enough time to beat back the gremlins that arise when you try to move an old gal after she's been slumbering for 3 months...
 
enplaned
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Wed Jul 22, 2020 3:27 am

1337Delta764 wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
I continue to be puzzled at the high percent of my purchases which are flown to the Seattle area. I am talking about everyday sorts of things. Potato Chips, jams, spices, denims, food grater. If they are not two-day delivery they sit back East (or Texas or Ohio) for a couple days, then suddenly on a plane and to my house. The algorithms to do all of this are simply mind bending. Obviously those thousands of highly paid Amazon workers in Seattle figure out the cheapest way to send things to particular addresses, and planes are often the answer.


I actually heard somewhere the average cost per package for Amazon Air is around $6 vs. about $6.75 for UPS Ground and $8 for UPS 2nd Day Air at Amazon's rates, however, it didn't specify whether the last mile carrier was AMZL or USPS.

BTW I heard the ground linehaul cost per package with USPS as the last mile carrier is about $4.55. Also, the old FedEx rates were about $7.25 for Ground/Home Delivery and $10 for Express 2Day.


I'm a little skeptical that the numbers you're quoting ($6 via Amazon Air, $4.55 via Amazon ground) are apples to apples for the following reason. An Amazon Air delivery is truck from FC to Sort Center then Truck to USPS DDU or maybe a Delivery Station. Then USPS or Amazon Flex (or other Amazon last mile) to Customer.

Amazon Air is all that, plus at least one air flight (possibly two, with a sort in the middle) plus another truck arc - it's truck from FC to Gateway, Air (at least one air segment, possibly two plus a sort in between), the Truck from Gateway to Sort Center.

In other words, the air delivery is much more elaborate, far more handling, many more chances for something to go wrong.

So, it might be the numbers you quote are correct, but the air packages are, say, materially more smaller/lighter.

To do this right requires all kinds of very very careful accounting. For instance, suppose you are committed to flying a certain flight. So long as you can ensure that the stuff that must be on the flight (time sensitive) is on the flight, then, once you have committed to flying the flight you may as well fill it up. Packages are, on average, pretty light, the marginal cost of adding an additional package to a flight you are already committed to flying, is pretty close to zero. I don't know whether Amazon is taking advantage of such phenomena to put more air packages on board, but economics would suggest that such moves should be considered at least.

It's possible there are calculations like that ongoing. However, I would say it's odd, overall, that fairly ordinary items are being supplied from so far away. It's an undesirable outcome perhaps reflecting Amazon's ongoing adaptation to Covid (which is one of the biggest disruptions ever to their network of FCs, trucks, aircraft, etc).

The planning problem for Amazon is more complicated than probably any other on earth. It's far more complicated than any passenger airline planning problem.

It's important to understand that, overall, delivery by air is a failure in the context of Amazon. This will almost certainly raise the hackles of some reading this - Amazon Air, a failure?! Well, no, obviously not. But looked at the right way, it's undeniably true that delivery by air is undesirable relative to other alternatives.

The cheapest form of delivery for Amazon is by truck from a nearby warehouse. Only when this is not possible is air used. In that respect, delivery by air occurs only when inventory placement has failed to stock the right amount of whatever near enough to the customer. And everytime that happens, it's a planning failure.

For sure there are always going to be rare items that can only be stocked in a few (or even one) place and for which air delivery will be pretty routine. But overall, if you're ordering something pretty normal and you live near a reasonable number of Amazon warehouses, the best solution for Amazon (in terms of cost of fulfillment, including cost of delivery) is if it's delivered by a truck from a nearby warehouse.

Given that the number of Amazon warehouses is still increasing, the reality is that the average distance of a customer to the nearest Amazon warehouse continues to decrease. That is to say, on average, the number of truckable deliveries ought to be increasing over time.

That assumes, however, that the product mix stays static (obviously not true) and that average promise (days from when you click to delivery) is static (also not true - when Prime went from nominally two days to nominally one day, that obviously changed the equation for Amazon quite a bit). But at this point, there's little that Amazon doesn't stock - Amazon must be way down the "long tail" of retail in terms of increasing product mix (in other words, most things added to the site at this point are things that, in the grand scheme of things, are not ordered that often on a relative basis - meaning they should have little impact on ability of Amazon to deliver the vast majority of orders from a local FC).

But if those two conditions were met (or largely met) then so long as the number of FCs continues to increase across the nation, you'd expect the *proportion* of Amazon Air deliveries to drop relative to truck deliveries. Overall, Amazon is still growing, so even if that proportion were dropping, it might be overwhelmed by the increase in overall flow. Also, of course, currently life is anything but normal - Covid has put supply chains in general and clearly Amazon in particular under enormous strain. So, as Amazon continues to adapt to life in the age of Covid, for sure we could expect a bit more than average weirdness in terms of a delivery "failure" like delivery by air when delivery by truck would be the more desired (by Amazon) outcome.

****

To change this up just a bit - moving from two day to one day Prime likely diminished the importance of the existing daytime Amazon sort at CVG quite a bit. That sort only supports a two-day delivery, because you need a nighttime sort to support one-day delivery. That nighttime CVG sort will come on line when Amazon's own hub is built.

But, in the meantime, until that hub is built, One Day Prime likely meant a big increase in the relevance of point-to-point flights and, perhaps, a nighttime cross-dock operation in ILM - I assume that's what it is (cross dock is a more primitive container-level hub). Is that right? Perhaps there are other nighttime cross docks?

The importance of the new regional air sort buildings (AFW, etc) becomes even greater to support those outbound point-to-point flights until that CVG hub comes on line.

That's my guess anyway.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Wed Jul 22, 2020 12:12 pm

enplaned - enjoyed your discussion. When the air initiative started I assumed it would be mostly balancing stocks across the country so delivery would be by truck and van. My purchases vary from a few dollars to over a thousand and very few have taken as long as a week. My guesses as to what might go by air, a fifty fifty question are right about half the time. No discernible pattern at this point.
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wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Wed Jul 22, 2020 2:56 pm

ILN is not a cross-dock operation. It's a sort. Run by Amazon, not DHL, not LGSTX, Amazon. A shakeout cruise for the facility at CVG.

Going by air involves, at most, one extra truck stop. It does involve building pallets or loading cans and unloading same. It may involve a sort during the air trip, or it may not.

I think that moving around items between DCs is rarely urgent enough to want to use air. I believe that rail will have a growing place in that. (Anybody notice the rail containers with the smile on them over the past couple of years?)
 
DeltaRules
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Wed Jul 22, 2020 3:40 pm

Does anyone know what the future holds for ILN once CVG opens? I remember hearing there was the possibility of it being used as a reliever to CVG and/or a night sort. One of my coworkers recently took a job as a sort supervisor of some kind at ILN with 90 people under her and I can't imagine she'd have done it if it were only to last a few months (and given they pumped money into new facilities there).
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frmrCapCadet
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Wed Jul 22, 2020 4:08 pm

Res rail: From what I am reading railroads have been performing poorly. Unit trains make money and are given preference over everything else. UP is about the poorest performer. A real 'do things my way, or the highway', and shippers have increasingly chosen to take the highway. PSR (precision scheduled railroading) has increasingly demanded shippers operate to the schedule RRs want (not that they perform all that well or on time), longer and few trains, increasingly extra charges for any custom pick up or deliveries, higher costs. It has not occurred to RRs that as their operating ratio has improved to ridiculously low numbers, that maybe some of that cost saving should be passed on to shippers. Sarcastically, huge amounts of borrowed money have been dedicated to stock buybacks and dividends. Dangerously so many RR writers have suggested. BNSF does better, but none of them are really meeting shippers needs. Amazon's response to their nastygrams or unexpected price boosts can be imagined.

There are specific routes which perform well, but I suspect there a few or no 1000 mile routes where Amazon could get the predicability, flexibility, and reliability they demand. A typical West to East coast trip frequently takes over a week.
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GoodRide
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Wed Jul 22, 2020 5:16 pm

MajMattMason wrote:
wjcandee wrote:
So, interestingly, ATI is planning to run N605DL from ILN to CVG tonight. That's one of ATI's 4 757Fs, that it used to run for DHL. I know that ATSG has been trying to find work for them, either as flown by ATI or otherwise. I understand they have been offered for dry-lease to a number of customers. So it's a thrill to see it moving, still on the ATI certificate, to be used for something. Don't know who the customer is -- could Amazon be looking at 757s? -- or maybe DHL has a temporary need that this 757 will be asked to fill. Regardless, nice to see her back in the air with ATI nearly 3 months after DHL ended its contract for them.

Update: Looks like the flight plan has been taken down after departure was moved a few times. (Just like the passenger airlines!). Also interesting.


The customer is DHL.

Not surprised it’s delayed. Airplanes like to be run, not sit for months on end. And these are old work horses!!


Supposedly it’s going to go between CVG-ELP, and also doing some work for UPS during peak.
 
ILNFlyer
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Wed Jul 22, 2020 6:18 pm

DeltaRules wrote:
Does anyone know what the future holds for ILN once CVG opens? I remember hearing there was the possibility of it being used as a reliever to CVG and/or a night sort. One of my coworkers recently took a job as a sort supervisor of some kind at ILN with 90 people under her and I can't imagine she'd have done it if it were only to last a few months (and given they pumped money into new facilities there).


That's the great debate here at ILN....what will they do with the sort once that massive CVG operation opens? My guess (and it's only a guess) is that CVG will supplant the operation here at ILN. I cant see it making any sense to have ILN open when CVG is at full tilt. CVG is supposed to be the primary air hub for Amazon and ILN is only 51 miles by ground from CVG. I really cant imagine ILN really playing any role for them other than the MRO work that is done here on the fleet.
 
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1337Delta764
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Wed Jul 22, 2020 6:25 pm

I know my Amazon Air shipments that go via CVG or ILN usually bypass the AZA5 Sortation Center.
 
N212R
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Wed Jul 22, 2020 8:21 pm

Great post enplaned - the world of Amazon freight-handling made objectively transparent.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Wed Jul 22, 2020 8:51 pm

GoodRide wrote:
Supposedly it’s going to go between CVG-ELP, and also doing some work for UPS during peak.


So the NAC 737-400 that's been flying that route since June 1 isn't big enough, maybe?
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Wed Jul 22, 2020 10:04 pm

Quick update on the Sun Country 737-800s for Amazon:

N7933A arrived in MSP on Monday, 7/20/20 from conformity. First revenue flight took place earlier today, Wednesday, 7/22/20. Was N447CC.
N5479A arrived in MSP on Wednesday, 7/22/20 from conformity. First revenue flight on ???. Was N440CC.

That means basically 9 are in service, with one more in conformity at PAE, which is N845DM, to be N7949A.

I just 2-and-a-half months, Sun Country has onboarded, staffed and started flying 9 of the 10 737-800s in its contract. As mentioned, Amazon sped things up a bit to help them out at a time of reduced passenger flying, but it's a win-win, and Sun Country has proven its ability to manage the operation and open new stations seamlessly.
 
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sunking737
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Thu Jul 23, 2020 12:52 am

Plus add in the fact the FAA gave their blessings to Sun Country to add 10 additional planes to their fleet. 31 to 41 in a turned upside down industry.
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mcg
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Thu Jul 23, 2020 1:29 am

wjcandee wrote:
Quick update on the Sun Country 737-800s for Amazon:

N7933A arrived in MSP on Monday, 7/20/20 from conformity. First revenue flight took place earlier today, Wednesday, 7/22/20. Was N447CC.
N5479A arrived in MSP on Wednesday, 7/22/20 from conformity. First revenue flight on ???. Was N440CC.

That means basically 9 are in service, with one more in conformity at PAE, which is N845DM, to be N7949A.

I just 2-and-a-half months, Sun Country has onboarded, staffed and started flying 9 of the 10 737-800s in its contract. As mentioned, Amazon sped things up a bit to help them out at a time of reduced passenger flying, but it's a win-win, and Sun Country has proven its ability to manage the operation and open new stations seamlessly.


Good job by Sun Country, a great little airline. I suspect Covid helped them as they likely have plenty of crew and staff to work the flights. A little sunshine on an otherwise bad situation.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Thu Jul 23, 2020 1:46 am

So, for those following the saga. N363CM flew to MAS Air today (7/22/20) at MEX. And N364CM is going back to ABX today from heavy check in GSO.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Thu Jul 23, 2020 1:52 am

Back when we were talking about how Amazon's fleet was allegedly weird because the Atlas-converted 767 aircraft had FADEC GEs and the ATSG ones had non-FADEC GEs, I pointed out that Atlas actually had a couple of 767s that it was flying for Amazon that also had Pratts. And that ATSG had Pratts among its non-Amazon 767s -- 3 at ABX, to be exact.

What I totally forgot about was the 757s. Of ATI's 8 757s, 5 have Pratts but...3 have Rollers. (There's a long reason for that, which in short is that all the combis but 751CX were converted by National at PEMCO in DHN in an effort to snag the military combi contract, which ATI was flying with DC8s. However, ATI agreed to bring on 757s, and retained the military's combi contract, so National was stuck with 3 basically-useless combis and after a while gave up and sold them to ATSG. ATSG had ordered 4 from Precision, and Precision had delivered 1 (751CX). ATSG cancelled the rest when they bought the National combis.)

So, in the ATSG-operated 767 fleet, there are GEs and Pratts, and in the 757 fleet, there are Pratts and Rollers.

Fortunately, they have DL doing engine maintenance for them. I don't know who does the RB211s, though. DL doesn't list them as a type that they maintain.
 
USAirKid
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Thu Jul 23, 2020 4:39 am

frmrCapCadet wrote:
I continue to be puzzled at the high percent of my purchases which are flown to the Seattle area. I am talking about everyday sorts of things. Potato Chips, jams, spices, denims, food grater. If they are not two-day delivery they sit back East (or Texas or Ohio) for a couple days, then suddenly on a plane and to my house. The algorithms to do all of this are simply mind bending. Obviously those thousands of highly paid Amazon workers in Seattle figure out the cheapest way to send things to particular addresses, and planes are often the answer.


enplaned wrote:
The planning problem for Amazon is more complicated than probably any other on earth. It's far more complicated than any passenger airline planning problem.

It's important to understand that, overall, delivery by air is a failure in the context of Amazon. This will almost certainly raise the hackles of some reading this - Amazon Air, a failure?! Well, no, obviously not. But looked at the right way, it's undeniably true that delivery by air is undesirable relative to other alternatives.

The cheapest form of delivery for Amazon is by truck from a nearby warehouse. Only when this is not possible is air used. In that respect, delivery by air occurs only when inventory placement has failed to stock the right amount of whatever near enough to the customer. And everytime that happens, it's a planning failure.


Enplaned, you've got a really good discussion here of the pieces. But you've missed something: the cheapest form of delivery for Amazon is filling the empty space that they already had planned on moving.

Amazon is optimizing the whole network, not just each package, and as a result some of package level routings don't make sense.

To give you some visibility into Amazon's thinking here is something they used to do. Back five years or so ago Amazon used to offer next day delivery and same day delivery in the Seattle area. They accomplished this with a contract with OnTrac. Every so often you'd have a package that you didn't order for next day or same day delivery, get upgraded to next day or same day delivery. I had a friend of a friend who worked for Amazon, and they confirmed that the reason why this happened is Amazon contracted for a minimum volume of next day/same day packages with OnTrac, if they had less than the minimum, they'd still pay for the minimum, so as a result they'd randomly pick a package to upgrade, that package had no marginal cost to deliver, since it was paid for by the fixed volume that Amazon committed to.

In the same way, Amazon has committed to flying multiple 767s and 737s across the country on a fixed schedule. I expect things that they're flying across the country like potato chips and jams are a result of their systems calculating that there will be excess space on a flight, and moving the fulfillment to the origin point of that flight.

So Amazon is trying to balance and avoid two failure states: an item not being available in one of the warehouses close to the customer, and a plane flying half empty.

I also would be surprised if Amazon isn't including their warehousing and pick costs in these calculations. I'm sure it isn't the same for every warehouse, and sometimes it might be cheaper to warehouse something at a farther location and fly it in on that unused capacity.
 
BTVB6Flyer
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Thu Jul 23, 2020 3:37 pm

Looks like LAL is coming online today.

SMF flight en-route

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/ATN ... /KSMF/KLAL
 
flyguy1
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Fri Jul 24, 2020 4:40 pm

Ordered some vitamins a few days ago for my daughter on Amazon, they are coming today via UPS. Funny thing is, they were shipped one day air saver, routing DFW-RFD-JFK. Im surprised they weren't just placed on the Amazon Air AFW-JFK flight.
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jreeves96
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Fri Jul 24, 2020 5:00 pm

DeltaRules wrote:
Does anyone know what the future holds for ILN once CVG opens? I remember hearing there was the possibility of it being used as a reliever to CVG and/or a night sort. One of my coworkers recently took a job as a sort supervisor of some kind at ILN with 90 people under her and I can't imagine she'd have done it if it were only to last a few months (and given they pumped money into new facilities there).



ILN has been the most mistreated airport in America. Lol.
DHL entered and left twice I believe? This is Amazon's second stint with ILN. They're constantly getting their hearts jerked around.

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