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catdaddy63
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Sat Aug 01, 2020 12:46 pm

USAirKid wrote:
I saw an interesting thing on the ground side today in Seattle. There was an Amazon delivery partner truck that was a 15-foot straight truck. (Or so, definitely no more than 20-feet.)

Up until today I'd only seen Dodge Sprinters / Ford Transit vehicles for Amazon deliveries. I know in my brief time at UPS (Package not Freight) they didn't like straight trucks for delivery, since the driver had to get out and walk around before they could access packages. I know in spots where UPS did use straight trucks for locations where they'd make lots of deliveries (Malls, big offices) and when they had to during peak times.

I'm kinda curious if this marks a new permutation in Amazon's organic delivery business..


I saw one of these vans in Tulsa a couple of weeks ago. Looks like they have ordered over 2000 so far. They look perfect for high-density areas versus the smaller vans which, judging by the number of Hertz and Budget rental vans, they obviously can't get enough,

https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon- ... ups-2019-7
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-release ... 85249.html
 
USAirKid
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Sun Aug 02, 2020 4:40 am

catdaddy63 wrote:
USAirKid wrote:
I saw an interesting thing on the ground side today in Seattle. There was an Amazon delivery partner truck that was a 15-foot straight truck. (Or so, definitely no more than 20-feet.)

Up until today I'd only seen Dodge Sprinters / Ford Transit vehicles for Amazon deliveries. I know in my brief time at UPS (Package not Freight) they didn't like straight trucks for delivery, since the driver had to get out and walk around before they could access packages. I know in spots where UPS did use straight trucks for locations where they'd make lots of deliveries (Malls, big offices) and when they had to during peak times.

I'm kinda curious if this marks a new permutation in Amazon's organic delivery business..


I saw one of these vans in Tulsa a couple of weeks ago. Looks like they have ordered over 2000 so far. They look perfect for high-density areas versus the smaller vans which, judging by the number of Hertz and Budget rental vans, they obviously can't get enough,

https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon- ... ups-2019-7
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-release ... 85249.html


The vans mentioned in the press release are walk in vans. Like this: https://www.utilimaster.com/products/walk-in-van/
Which looks more like a UPS or FedEx vehicle.

The vehicle I saw looked like this:
https://www.utilimaster.com/vocations/parcel/utilivan/
A pretty standard straight truck.

Also related, does anyone think it’s funny that so many news articles tend to say UPS and USPS should be worried about Amazon’s organic delivery network? I’m sure both of those carriers have minimum package commitment from Amazon, and Amazon is seeing a growing pie for deliveries, and they’re taking part of it.

To pull it back to airlines, just because the mainline carrier grows, doesn’t mean the express operators should be worried. A rising tide lifts all planes. (Or something like that....)
 
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1337Delta764
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Sun Aug 02, 2020 4:58 am

USAirKid wrote:
catdaddy63 wrote:
USAirKid wrote:
I saw an interesting thing on the ground side today in Seattle. There was an Amazon delivery partner truck that was a 15-foot straight truck. (Or so, definitely no more than 20-feet.)

Up until today I'd only seen Dodge Sprinters / Ford Transit vehicles for Amazon deliveries. I know in my brief time at UPS (Package not Freight) they didn't like straight trucks for delivery, since the driver had to get out and walk around before they could access packages. I know in spots where UPS did use straight trucks for locations where they'd make lots of deliveries (Malls, big offices) and when they had to during peak times.

I'm kinda curious if this marks a new permutation in Amazon's organic delivery business..


I saw one of these vans in Tulsa a couple of weeks ago. Looks like they have ordered over 2000 so far. They look perfect for high-density areas versus the smaller vans which, judging by the number of Hertz and Budget rental vans, they obviously can't get enough,

https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon- ... ups-2019-7
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-release ... 85249.html


The vans mentioned in the press release are walk in vans. Like this: https://www.utilimaster.com/products/walk-in-van/
Which looks more like a UPS or FedEx vehicle.

The vehicle I saw looked like this:
https://www.utilimaster.com/vocations/parcel/utilivan/
A pretty standard straight truck.

Also related, does anyone think it’s funny that so many news articles tend to say UPS and USPS should be worried about Amazon’s organic delivery network? I’m sure both of those carriers have minimum package commitment from Amazon, and Amazon is seeing a growing pie for deliveries, and they’re taking part of it.

To pull it back to airlines, just because the mainline carrier grows, doesn’t mean the express operators should be worried. A rising tide lifts all planes. (Or something like that....)


Also, news outlets seem to forget that part of the Amazon Air volume goes to USPS for last mile deliveries; the last mile portion is distinct from the first and middle mile.
 
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sunking737
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Sun Aug 02, 2020 3:06 pm

SY Prime Air plane # 10, N7949A , should be in service this week. Its been @PAE for a month
"Don't believe it unless its parked on the ramp, or printed in the schedule...SUBJECT TO CHANGE"

I'm a SUNDUCK......Worked for RC & SY @ MSP
 
enplaned
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Sun Aug 02, 2020 5:30 pm

USAirKid wrote:

Also related, does anyone think it’s funny that so many news articles tend to say UPS and USPS should be worried about Amazon’s organic delivery network? I’m sure both of those carriers have minimum package commitment from Amazon, and Amazon is seeing a growing pie for deliveries, and they’re taking part of it.

To pull it back to airlines, just because the mainline carrier grows, doesn’t mean the express operators should be worried. A rising tide lifts all planes. (Or something like that....)


They absolutely should be worried.

The only thing that makes Amazon's own delivery system possible is the existence of common carrier networks such as UPS, and even more so the USPS.

Any e-commerce business large enough can save money by carving off the most dense lanes. Suppose you have, in an e-business, a route where you send at least a plane load of stuff in the one direction and at least a plane load of stuff in the other. So long as you have a good solution for the last mile (which in the US can be provided by USPS), you can easily save money by running your own flights on that route.

The reason is this - the typical package express network like UPS or whatever runs a lot of partially-empty aircraft. That's just the nature of the beast. So, the rates that are charged reflect that. So now, if the e-commerce business can carve off one or more routes where the aircraft are running full in both directions, they basically keep the balanced stuff for themselves and dump the imbalance on the common carriers.

So, while one should absolutely not ignore all the practical challenges that Amazon overcame to set up its air network, success of the resulting operation (in terms of saving Amazon money relative to using UPS) was almost a foregone conclusion. Amazon would have had to have screwed the pooch really badly for it not to be a success.

So then you have to ask yourself the question - why do UPS and USPS work with Amazon?

BTW, there is an important imprecision of language here. UPS is a common carrier - it cannot refuse to take an Amazon package at standard rates. People talk to Fedex refusing to work with Amazon - that's wrong. If Amazon takes a package down to a Fedex office and pays standard rates, Fedex will deliver that Amazon package. Fedex has to - it is what is known as a common carrier.

What Fedex will no longer do is offer Amazon any kind of special deal.

So then you have to ask yourself, why does UPS still offer Amazon deals? And it's an interesting question. Because it is clear that Amazon's own delivery services, whether Amazon Air or the broader Amazon Transportation Services, is ultimately going to take over more and more of Amazon's own deliveries. And yet, ATS can't (yet) cover every need that Amazon has, so some has to be sent by UPS or USPS.

So by UPS offering deals to Amazon, they are helping Amazon to grow a UPS competitor. It is that simple. It's an interesting thought experiment to think of UPS one day simply telling Amazon, that's it, no more special deals. You pay standard rates.

Following the demise of DHL's ambitions to grow a domestic competitor to UPS and Fedex, I think most would have expected that UPS and Fedex would remain an oligopoly for the foreseeable future. But Amazon is, in fact, building a comparable network. Sure, in the sort-run, maybe UPS gets some more packages because of Amazon's growth, but that is, in fact, another world-class air hub being built in Cincinnati, that is a massive network of sort centers, delivery stations, etc, being rolled-out nationally.

That is, in fact, the development of a third package transportation network, something unthinkable just 10 years ago. It is absolutely a threat to UPS and USPS, they'd be nuts not to recognize that.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Sun Aug 02, 2020 7:33 pm

UPS's new president has been talking about being the best not the biggest, which is of course sometimes just an advane excuse because she knows they are going to fall on their face during Peak by refusing volume to keep the damaged network fluid. Or it could be code for "We're going to try to raise rates on Amazon."

Hey, it's business. There's no right or wrong, strictly-speaking. It's not a question of virtue whether one carries Amazon. There is, however, smart and dumb. These are sometimes only determinable in hindsight.

UPS helped move Amazon towards its own network when it refused to deliver on Christmas a few years ago and sent everybody home, leading to massive refunds and embarrassment by Amazon.

Fedex over time will decide whether refusing to compete with UPS for Amazon was a good idea. Certainly, the loss of Amazon business blew a hole in its revenues, which it initially denied but then had to admit. Maybe that business was so marginally-profitable that it didn't need it. Interesting, though, that they were getting something like $3/piece more than UPS on average, which is why I'm saying "refused to compete with UPS". And that also raises a question whether FedEx is really that incredibly less-efficient than UPS.

Until now, the reality is that no outside entity was going ultimately to be able to handle Amazon's exploding volume. The numbers are so vast, and the growth was so vast, that massive capital investments were going to be needed by either carrier, and they didn't want that. Amazon's growth will slow eventually, but for now what Amazon takes in-house isn't per se necessarily coming out of somebody else's volume. Certainly at the beginning of the Amazon in-house network (and remember that a huge component of that was ground line-haul, which was well established before the air line-haul was even an idea), every bit of what was going into it was coming out of growth, and FX/UPS were also seeing growth from Amazon.

And just one other point: as Amazon has demonstrated, there isn't necessarily a need for a big national service provider to service it -- even if it's vastly-more-convenient for Amazon to deal with one shop rather than 100. You can see that the likes of On Track and Lasership -- local entities -- have been willing to take some volume, and, of course, Amazon is getting very good at managing its own delivery network.
 
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1337Delta764
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Sun Aug 02, 2020 7:51 pm

wjcandee wrote:
And just one other point: as Amazon has demonstrated, there isn't necessarily a need for a big national service provider to service it -- even if it's vastly-more-convenient for Amazon to deal with one shop rather than 100. You can see that the likes of On Track and Lasership -- local entities -- have been willing to take some volume, and, of course, Amazon is getting very good at managing its own delivery network.


Even OnTrac has been shifting its some its volume away from Amazon in favor of higher-margin customers as Amazon builds its own delivery network. While Amazon is what made OnTrac successful, OnTrac now has plenty of high-profile customers besides Amazon that can keep them competitive. OnTrac also remains an option for Amazon's Seller Fulfilled Prime, as well as UPS, FedEx, USPS Priority Mail Express, and USPS Priority Mail (Thursdays and Fridays for one- or two-day estimated delivery zones only).
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Sun Aug 02, 2020 8:07 pm

133Delta764 -- thanks for that info! You are so knowledgeable about this stuff!

On another note, it is interesting to see how the recently-converted CAM aircraft are being shifted around. N381AN is at AMES in TPA, but it's unclear who it's going to. I know that a particular airline had been eager to get N384AA, which should be next out of conversion (unless N304CM is finally delivered), but it now looks like that is going to go to Amazon as N479AZ.

N304CM and N308CM should be going to UPS, but there hadn't seemed to be much urgency about it. The converted 767-300s have mostly been assigned to Europe, and maybe the demand pressure there isn't what it apparently is here at the moment.

So I was pleased to see that N308CM, which has been in TPA for 2 months, should be going to paint at Landlocked Aviation tomorrow. Landlocked previously painted N394UP. (The other two CAM leases to UPS were painted at Dean Baldwin.) Landlocked was a favorite of Delta, which basically kept them busy on 3 aircraft at a time except during the summer peak. Now, of course, crickets from Delta. So I'm sure they're happy for the business from CAM. N308CM should end up as N395UP, unless things get shifted again.

N457AZ has been back from paint at Dean Baldwin for about 2 weeks, so it should be ready to go into service for Amazon at ATI. We'll see when they actually get her rolling. Meanwhile, while watching to see if things get shifted around, we'll see whether either of the ex-ANA Cargo BCFs (currently N431AZ and N433AZ) moves into paint for Amazon in the next 10 days or so.
Last edited by wjcandee on Sun Aug 02, 2020 8:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
enplaned
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Sun Aug 02, 2020 8:20 pm

wjcandee wrote:
UPS helped move Amazon towards its own network when it refused to deliver on Christmas a few years ago and sent everybody home, leading to massive refunds and embarrassment by Amazon.


wjcandee wrote:
Until now, the reality is that no outside entity was going ultimately to be able to handle Amazon's exploding volume. The numbers are so vast, and the growth was so vast, that massive capital investments were going to be needed by either carrier, and they didn't want that. Amazon's growth will slow eventually, but for now what Amazon takes in-house isn't per se necessarily coming out of somebody else's volume. Certainly at the beginning of the Amazon in-house network (and remember that a huge component of that was ground line-haul, which was well established before the air line-haul was even an idea), every bit of what was going into it was coming out of growth, and FX/UPS were also seeing growth from Amazon.


We are going through a national (actually, global) transition to e-commerce, which was always going to cause changes for two reasons: (1) massive additional volume (2) It's dominantly B2C rather than B2B - but UPS and Fedex were always more B2B.

So, UPS started to fail under the strain of peak deliveries, but more broadly, when you're Amazon, you have these quarter-billion+ assets known as FCs (specifically, AR sortable warehouses) and those only make sense when they are run 24/7/365, which requires seven day a week deliveries.

Further, Amazon has grabbed more and more share over time by offering selection and convenience, and convenience means getting your stuff ASAP. Which means if someone finds their star-spangled widget on Friday morning on the Amazon website, they're far more likely to buy it if it arrives Saturday rather than Monday. Consumers don't care about weekends - in fact, weekends is when many consumers used to do their shopping, so you better be able to get stuff to consumers on the weekends just like any other day.

So Amazon has financial and consumer satisfaction reasons for wanting its stuff delivered ASAP. The heck with weekends, the heck with traditional UPS and Fedex five-day-a-week delivery cadence. It needs seven day a week delivery, period, end-of-story.

And UPS and Fedex were not set up for that.

Further, Amazon wants to get inside the economics of a delivery network. A huge percent of the cost of delivery is the last mile. If two packages are delivered to the same address on the same day, that's money in the pocket of UPS. Amazon wants that.

Some of that, Amazon can do itself. At least four years ago, Amazon software started allowing consolidation of packages. If you made two orders in the same day, Amazon had the ability to figure that out and consolidate stuff within the same box when possible. Amazon has started encouraging this kind of thing by "subscribe and save" programs whereby if you subscribe for certain stuff on a certain schedule (every month, every two months, every week, every X weeks) it allows Amazon to group those deliveries as well.

But then think about, say, an assisted living center for older folks with a single mailroom. If UPS delivers dozens of packages a day there, that's a huge score for UPS, because it's a single last-mile trip for dozens of packages. Amazon wants that too. Same thing for a big apartment complex with a single mailroom. Or a NYC doorman building. Amazon wants the savings from that single last-mile trip that covers dozens, maybe even over 100 packages in a single day.

It's true more broadly too. The more dense the deliveries (i.e. more packages per mile) the more efficient is the last mile. It would be interesting to know what fraction of all addresses Amazon's own delivery vehicles pass by in a given city on a typical day. It must be pretty dang high by now. And the higher it is, the more cost effective is every additional package delivered to that city that day. Amazon wants those economics.

My guess is that as Amazon figures out what addresses are most economic, you'll start seeing targeted promotions. Special programs for folks living in assisted living facilities. Frankly, delivery of stuff like dietary supplements, food, vitamins, etc (on large-print version of websites) can be a great thing for older folks - and it's fantastic for Amazon if it's going en-mass to a single mailroom.

I could see rural delivery version of Amazon - Amazon cafes/convenience stores near the remaining business centers of rural counties. Pick up your Amazon packages at a central location and get a free cup of coffee, low-priced essentials like milk, and chat with your neighbors at the same time. Or maybe there will be some kind of benefit where if you pick stuff up at the central location X times, you get a free something else - a reduction your Prime membership fee, perhaps. A loyalty program of some kind to induce people to pick up centrally. That tradeoff could be absolutely worth it for Amazon if it allows them to reduce the cost of the last mile. If they do it right, they'll get credit for encouraging a sense of community at the same time.

There's a ton of room for creativity on the part of Amazon going forward, that's for sure.
 
mcg
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Sun Aug 02, 2020 9:16 pm

I've wondered for a long time (here) if UPS was getting stuck with the bad deliveries and Amazon was keeping the easy deliveries. At my house in the suburbs in Colorado I haven't seen an Amazon delivery by UPS in longer than I can remember; 3 years maybe more. It's an easy delivery, close to an airport and an Amazon warehouse, multiple deliveries on the same street, not-bad traffic, easy-peezy. It always either the Prime van or USPS. On the other hand I once saw a UPS package car rumbling down the highway outside of Troy, Montana. Small town, very remote, winding highways, bad weather; the package car undoubtedly had a fair number of Amazon packages in it. This is the epitome of a bad and expensive delivery.

So I gotta wonder, is UPS getting the bad, difficult and expensive deliveries and are they being paid a premium for them? I don't know. UPS also disclosed that Amazon is growing percentage of their business, so I suppose they are able to make it work. It is pretty interesting to watch.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Sun Aug 02, 2020 9:51 pm

Mcg: If that package car was going to be going down the street and making stops in Troy, Montana anyway, and the package car would otherwise have empty space in it, and UPS is set up to deliver stuff to Troy, sending a truck up there anyway (the size of which doesn't make as much difference expense-wise as the payment to the driver), query what the marginal cost of the Amazon packages is. If Mrs. Rancherman is ordering stuff from Wayfair (or Grainger or Home Depot), and the UPS truck was going to her house anyway or at least past her house anyway, the extra expense may not be as significant as you think. Same with USPS.
 
MavyWavyATR
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Mon Aug 03, 2020 12:40 am

Does anyone see Amazon picking up some 777F's eventually? This would allow them to both increase capacity (especially with e-commerce continuing to grow) and also allow them to reach Europe as well as Hawaii and deep South America from their CVG base without stopping.
 
enplaned
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Mon Aug 03, 2020 12:50 am

MavyWavyATR wrote:
Does anyone see Amazon picking up some 777F's eventually? This would allow them to both increase capacity (especially with e-commerce continuing to grow) and also allow them to reach Europe as well as Hawaii and deep South America from their CVG base without stopping.


OK, but what need does Amazon have to make such deliveries? Amazon has European FCs already, and an air network within Europe as well. Further, Amazon already serves Hawaii from the mainland with 767s, plus it's even done some Asia flying already with them.

Let's remember, an air delivery is in some sense a failure to place inventory optimally. It's nothing that Amazon wants to do, it's something that Amazon has to do. If there's a cheaper alternative (like delivering by truck from a local FC) Amazon will seek that first.

Also, you may be interested to know that Amazon has its own freight forwarder and does use belly-space on third party aircraft from time to time. That, of course, is less of an option in a Covid world. But to the extent Amazon does want to go to Europe, it can easily do that with 767s as well.
 
Delta28L
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Mon Aug 03, 2020 1:27 am

enplaned wrote:
MavyWavyATR wrote:
Does anyone see Amazon picking up some 777F's eventually? This would allow them to both increase capacity (especially with e-commerce continuing to grow) and also allow them to reach Europe as well as Hawaii and deep South America from their CVG base without stopping.


OK, but what need does Amazon have to make such deliveries? Amazon has European FCs already, and an air network within Europe as well. Further, Amazon already serves Hawaii from the mainland with 767s, plus it's even done some Asia flying already with them.

Let's remember, an air delivery is in some sense a failure to place inventory optimally. It's nothing that Amazon wants to do, it's something that Amazon has to do. If there's a cheaper alternative (like delivering by truck from a local FC) Amazon will seek that first.

Also, you may be interested to know that Amazon has its own freight forwarder and does use belly-space on third party aircraft from time to time. That, of course, is less of an option in a Covid world. But to the extent Amazon does want to go to Europe, it can easily do that with 767s as well.


I remember when I worked the ramp for AA the last flight of the night from DFW was always full of amazon packages in the big bags they used.
 
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1337Delta764
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Mon Aug 03, 2020 12:42 pm

mcg wrote:
I've wondered for a long time (here) if UPS was getting stuck with the bad deliveries and Amazon was keeping the easy deliveries. At my house in the suburbs in Colorado I haven't seen an Amazon delivery by UPS in longer than I can remember; 3 years maybe more. It's an easy delivery, close to an airport and an Amazon warehouse, multiple deliveries on the same street, not-bad traffic, easy-peezy. It always either the Prime van or USPS. On the other hand I once saw a UPS package car rumbling down the highway outside of Troy, Montana. Small town, very remote, winding highways, bad weather; the package car undoubtedly had a fair number of Amazon packages in it. This is the epitome of a bad and expensive delivery.

So I gotta wonder, is UPS getting the bad, difficult and expensive deliveries and are they being paid a premium for them? I don't know. UPS also disclosed that Amazon is growing percentage of their business, so I suppose they are able to make it work. It is pretty interesting to watch.


For the most part rural deliveries are USPS, with some UPS.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Mon Aug 03, 2020 4:24 pm

In our 6 (actually 8) floor condo packages are generally delivered to every unit's inside front door. This is by UPS, FedEx (rarely), and USPS. We don't have a mail room. On Trac never figured out how to get into the building and we don't see them anymore (thankfully), but I gather they may be doing better in other areas.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
enplaned
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Mon Aug 03, 2020 5:51 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
In our 6 (actually 8) floor condo packages are generally delivered to every unit's inside front door. This is by UPS, FedEx (rarely), and USPS. We don't have a mail room. On Trac never figured out how to get into the building and we don't see them anymore (thankfully), but I gather they may be doing better in other areas.


Figuring out those distinctions are a lever Amazon has to improve profitability over time, which might be reflected in the promotions they offer different customers.
 
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1337Delta764
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Mon Aug 03, 2020 7:07 pm

Also, Amazon might have a log for each ZIP code on how reliable each carrier is as well as the cost of shipping to that ZIP code. If one carrier is too unreliable in a specific ZIP code, Amazon might deprioritize that carrier for that ZIP code.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Mon Aug 03, 2020 9:04 pm

1337Delta764 wrote:
Also, Amazon might have a log for each ZIP code on how reliable each carrier is as well as the cost of shipping to that ZIP code. If one carrier is too unreliable in a specific ZIP code, Amazon might deprioritize that carrier for that ZIP code.


They absolutely do this, or something similar. It's why for a while they pulled back on USPS deliveries to my country zip on Sundays, until USPS got its act together out here on Sunday. They monitor vendors and hold them accountable, like any good business should. It's impressive, though, that they can do it with this level of granularity on volume of this scale.
 
autopiloton
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Tue Aug 04, 2020 4:47 am

N381AN is going through conformity for ATI. Guessing it will be for Amazon. Wonder if this will be N479AZ instead of N384AA like wjcandee mentioned.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Tue Aug 04, 2020 7:01 am

autopiloton wrote:
N381AN is going through conformity for ATI. Guessing it will be for Amazon. Wonder if this will be N479AZ instead of N384AA like wjcandee mentioned.


It's possible. I had thought that 384AA was going to go to another airline, but, sure as shootin', the FAA has it still as a pending number change to N479AZ. The FAA public information runs a few days behind, however, so it's possible a decision was made and it just isn't reflected in the public records yet. MO11 has a quicker line to this stuff than I, so maybe he will know.

Similarly, the FAA doesn't show any pending number change for 381AN. Now that doesn't mean much, because, like I said, the FAA info can run a few days behind.

Of course, there's another possibility: 381AN could be going to ATI as a spare/military or for other business, and even could keep its AN tail number, like N376AN, which is on the ATI certificate and never got changed to a CM or other number. I mean, right now, ATI has a whole bunch of planes, but only two 767-300s that aren't Amazon (N395CM, N376AN), and one 767-200 that isn't Amazon (N255CM).. (The 757s are a different story.) One of the two spare -300s, N395CM (in full ATI livery) is routinely used on military, although right now it is doing DHL (HKG-GUM-SYD-GUM-HKG). 376AN is a maintenance spare and for military. Amazon does maintain one of its AZ aircraft as a spare, so if one goes AOG, it isn't absolutely-essential for ATI to have an available spare, but...you get my point. ATI might be able to make use of another spare, or their sales department might have another contract. It probably isn't the case given the $$$ that that frame could fetch for ATSG on a long-term lease right now, but I'm just covering all the bases. [BTW, for the detail-oriented, I'm not counting the Aloha plane, N399CM, that ATI currently operates for Aloha under a short-term CMI agreement that just keeps going and going and going. It's a dry-lease by ATSG to NAC/Aloha, and presumably will be operated by Aloha eventually.]

N384AA did a test flight yesterday at TLV, so it's possible that it will be on its way back to CONUS soon.

N308CM is in TPA and has been scheduled to go to CWF for paint for UPS for a couple of days, but it keeps getting pushed back. Now planned for tomorrow morning.
 
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sunking737
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Tue Aug 04, 2020 2:03 pm

SCX5504 / SY5504 aka N7949 SY Amazon Prime #10 is now @MSP...Wow 10 737-800F in two months give or take a few weeks...

FYI according to planespotters SY is getting another 737-800F #11?? N849DM to be N5227A. The million dollar question is now how many Amazon planes will SY get??
"Don't believe it unless its parked on the ramp, or printed in the schedule...SUBJECT TO CHANGE"

I'm a SUNDUCK......Worked for RC & SY @ MSP
 
Clancy223
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Tue Aug 04, 2020 2:26 pm

sunking737 wrote:
SCX5504 / SY5504 aka N7949 SY Amazon Prime #10 is now @MSP...Wow 10 737-800F in two months give or take a few weeks...

FYI according to planespotters SY is getting another 737-800F #11?? N849DM to be N5227A. The million dollar question is now how many Amazon planes will SY get??


N5227A is in VQQ now for the phase-in checks for Atlas/Southern bringing their 738F count to 6. N5233A and 5237A will be the 7th and 8th for Atlas/Southern.
 
MO11
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Tue Aug 04, 2020 3:06 pm

N457AZ leased to Amazon yesterday.
 
CALMSP
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Tue Aug 04, 2020 3:33 pm

MavyWavyATR wrote:
Does anyone see Amazon picking up some 777F's eventually? This would allow them to both increase capacity (especially with e-commerce continuing to grow) and also allow them to reach Europe as well as Hawaii and deep South America from their CVG base without stopping.


I don't see the need for more capacity. Planes aren't even 100% full now and the move to smaller a/c shows what might be the long term goal. in addition, as more and more FC's and DC's are built around the country, less reliance on giant planes will be needed.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Tue Aug 04, 2020 4:28 pm

CALMSP: I think the idea of the larger aircraft is to have that capability when Peak hits. It's all about being able to handle Peak.
 
CALMSP
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Tue Aug 04, 2020 4:34 pm

wjcandee wrote:
CALMSP: I think the idea of the larger aircraft is to have that capability when Peak hits. It's all about being able to handle Peak.


I get that, but even during peak, we're still not full everywhere. I think the large a/c will be secondary moving forward. the 738 is where its at.
 
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sunking737
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Tue Aug 04, 2020 5:24 pm

Clancy223 wrote:
sunking737 wrote:
SCX5504 / SY5504 aka N7949 SY Amazon Prime #10 is now @MSP...Wow 10 737-800F in two months give or take a few weeks...

FYI according to planespotters SY is getting another 737-800F #11?? N849DM to be N5227A. The million dollar question is now how many Amazon planes will SY get??


N5227A is in VQQ now for the phase-in checks for Atlas/Southern bringing their 738F count to 6. N5233A and 5237A will be the 7th and 8th for Atlas/Southern.


I don't want to misjudge you but the information I have seen in airfleets say the next 3 737-800F are to for SY not SOO/Atlas.. That would give SY 13 -800F
"Don't believe it unless its parked on the ramp, or printed in the schedule...SUBJECT TO CHANGE"

I'm a SUNDUCK......Worked for RC & SY @ MSP
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Tue Aug 04, 2020 8:24 pm

CALMSP wrote:
wjcandee wrote:
CALMSP: I think the idea of the larger aircraft is to have that capability when Peak hits. It's all about being able to handle Peak.


I get that, but even during peak, we're still not full everywhere. I think the large a/c will be secondary moving forward. the 738 is where its at.


I think it all depends on the cost experience with the 737-800. I don't think they went into that 737-800 investment with the level of experimental/experiential rigor that they usually do -- i.e. GECAS sold them on the 737-800, for good or ill -- so we will have to see how it all fits in. I think the 767s are here to stay and seem to keep growing. I think that Amazon needs/needed a smaller aircraft for once the CVG hub opens. If the A321 Precision Conversion turns out to be a much better and more-efficient freighter -- and i think it will -- I think we may see some limits on the 737-800 growth in the future.

And in rereading my post, I realize that I wasn't very clear, so, FWIW, I should clarify: when I was talking about "larger aircraft", I meant the 767-300, not the 777, which I don't see a role for at this time.

The thing about Amazon -- and this will eventually settle down -- is that whatever crazy, wild-a$$ projection one makes about volume growth in, say, 3 years, they always end up blowing through that by some huge factor. So what's half-empty this year could well be full next year, depending on how much they can -- or want to -- push through the network. Once they have a huge central sort, a lot more can go into the air network because a lot less sorting will need to be done at the DCs. And the more that is going to be delivered by AMZL or USPS in the last-mile, the more that is going to go through the organic ground-and-air line-haul network. If UPS is going to do the last mile, then it gets on their line-haul network right from the DC.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Tue Aug 04, 2020 8:36 pm

On N5227A and the others, if it's going to VQQ for induction, it's not a crazy thought that it could be going to Southern. Flightstar does the inductions and heavy checks for AAWW. And that is indeed where 5227A went, straight from ANC, already wearing its 5227A number. Seems like a slightly-different process than what Sun Country was doing.

Of course, it's possible that Sun Country decided to switch to Flightstar from AAR, but it is an interesting development.
 
Clancy223
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Tue Aug 04, 2020 8:43 pm

sunking737 wrote:
Clancy223 wrote:
sunking737 wrote:
SCX5504 / SY5504 aka N7949 SY Amazon Prime #10 is now @MSP...Wow 10 737-800F in two months give or take a few weeks...

FYI according to planespotters SY is getting another 737-800F #11?? N849DM to be N5227A. The million dollar question is now how many Amazon planes will SY get??


N5227A is in VQQ now for the phase-in checks for Atlas/Southern bringing their 738F count to 6. N5233A and 5237A will be the 7th and 8th for Atlas/Southern.


I don't want to misjudge you but the information I have seen in airfleets say the next 3 737-800F are to for SY not SOO/Atlas.. That would give SY 13 -800F


Flights on these A/C start for 9S on 10/29... N5233A 9S3604 RFD-LAL, 9S3607 LAL-IAH... N5233A 9S3671 IAH-BWI, 9S3701 BWI-TPA... N5237A 9S3627 ATL-RFD, 9S3602 RFD-IAH, 9S3625 IAH-PDX
 
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Revelation
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Tue Aug 04, 2020 11:13 pm

enplaned wrote:
Further, Amazon has grabbed more and more share over time by offering selection and convenience, and convenience means getting your stuff ASAP. Which means if someone finds their star-spangled widget on Friday morning on the Amazon website, they're far more likely to buy it if it arrives Saturday rather than Monday. Consumers don't care about weekends - in fact, weekends is when many consumers used to do their shopping, so you better be able to get stuff to consumers on the weekends just like any other day.

So Amazon has financial and consumer satisfaction reasons for wanting its stuff delivered ASAP. The heck with weekends, the heck with traditional UPS and Fedex five-day-a-week delivery cadence. It needs seven day a week delivery, period, end-of-story.

And when it's not ASAP, it's at least reliable. One thing I bought recently was quoted as Aug 1 - Aug 8 and is coming Aug 6 now. I've had two different things I bought spontaneously over the last few months from non-Amazon sources and it's been a "never again" thing for me. One took several nags and several weeks to get what I was promised in one week. Another seems to have totally fallen off the radar. I've had more than a few Amazon two-day things take three days lately but at least they do show up.
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Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
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GARUDAROD
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Tue Aug 04, 2020 11:53 pm

Interesting on another thread, there is a lot of speculation that AMAZON is looking to set up an airline with B757/B767 based in Brisbane, Australia
starting in Spring 2021. This would be an interesting expansion model.
Cargo doesn't whine, moan, or complain
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Wed Aug 05, 2020 12:31 am

Revelation wrote:
enplaned wrote:
Further, Amazon has grabbed more and more share over time by offering selection and convenience, and convenience means getting your stuff ASAP. Which means if someone finds their star-spangled widget on Friday morning on the Amazon website, they're far more likely to buy it if it arrives Saturday rather than Monday. Consumers don't care about weekends - in fact, weekends is when many consumers used to do their shopping, so you better be able to get stuff to consumers on the weekends just like any other day.

So Amazon has financial and consumer satisfaction reasons for wanting its stuff delivered ASAP. The heck with weekends, the heck with traditional UPS and Fedex five-day-a-week delivery cadence. It needs seven day a week delivery, period, end-of-story.

And when it's not ASAP, it's at least reliable. One thing I bought recently was quoted as Aug 1 - Aug 8 and is coming Aug 6 now. I've had two different things I bought spontaneously over the last few months from non-Amazon sources and it's been a "never again" thing for me. One took several nags and several weeks to get what I was promised in one week. Another seems to have totally fallen off the radar. I've had more than a few Amazon two-day things take three days lately but at least they do show up.


We do want it fast, but if we can't get it fast, we at least want it as promised. A long, long time ago, in a college class in my major, the professor shared a study he had done which showed that (as pertains to commuting or airline flying), travel time reliability was significantly more important to consumers than merely the length of travel time. I wouldn't be surprised to find that the same applies to shipping of consumer packages.

Although of course a reliable next-day or two-hour delivery is tops!

On Long Island, I use Amazon Fresh for groceries. Good fresh product at a fair price and I like the delivery service. I'm happy getting it next day. It comes reliably.

In Manhattan, I use MaxDelivery almost exclusively. Order online, it's there in an hour. Couriers bring it on bikes. The slogan is "Addictively-convenient, disturbingly-fast." It really is scary how fast it comes. And some things are more expensive than Amazon and some things are cheaper. But they differentiate themselves with some homemade and local artisanal foods. It's very easy to get used to -- almost as fast as walking to the store and picking the stuff out yourself, standing in line, paying for it, and dragging it back to your apartment. Well worth the $5 tip to the biker. It comes disturbingly-fast, and very-very-reliably.
 
CALMSP
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Wed Aug 05, 2020 1:57 am

wjcandee wrote:
CALMSP wrote:
wjcandee wrote:
CALMSP: I think the idea of the larger aircraft is to have that capability when Peak hits. It's all about being able to handle Peak.


I get that, but even during peak, we're still not full everywhere. I think the large a/c will be secondary moving forward. the 738 is where its at.


I think it all depends on the cost experience with the 737-800. I don't think they went into that 737-800 investment with the level of experimental/experiential rigor that they usually do -- i.e. GECAS sold them on the 737-800, for good or ill -- so we will have to see how it all fits in. I think the 767s are here to stay and seem to keep growing. I think that Amazon needs/needed a smaller aircraft for once the CVG hub opens. If the A321 Precision Conversion turns out to be a much better and more-efficient freighter -- and i think it will -- I think we may see some limits on the 737-800 growth in the future.

And in rereading my post, I realize that I wasn't very clear, so, FWIW, I should clarify: when I was talking about "larger aircraft", I meant the 767-300, not the 777, which I don't see a role for at this time.

The thing about Amazon -- and this will eventually settle down -- is that whatever crazy, wild-a$$ projection one makes about volume growth in, say, 3 years, they always end up blowing through that by some huge factor. So what's half-empty this year could well be full next year, depending on how much they can -- or want to -- push through the network. Once they have a huge central sort, a lot more can go into the air network because a lot less sorting will need to be done at the DCs. And the more that is going to be delivered by AMZL or USPS in the last-mile, the more that is going to go through the organic ground-and-air line-haul network. If UPS is going to do the last mile, then it gets on their line-haul network right from the DC.


gotcha, yeah, the 77F is too big of an a/c for AMZ fleet.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Wed Aug 05, 2020 2:02 am

GARUDAROD wrote:
Interesting on another thread, there is a lot of speculation that AMAZON is looking to set up an airline with B757/B767 based in Brisbane, Australia
starting in Spring 2021. This would be an interesting expansion model.


I read that thread and the articles on which it is based. Color me skeptical. I concur with Zeke, who independently had the same idea I did, which is that, if it is indeed anything at all (which is doubtful), it might be a new crap cargo carrier for DHL. Zeke mentioned to replace Tasmanian blah-blah.

But I think even that's giving this whispy nothingness too much credit.

Of course, I have been wrong before. A lot.
 
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sunking737
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Wed Aug 05, 2020 2:50 am

wjcandee, I think that SY was sending planes to LQQ for interior mods. Maybe AAR is booked full now with helping Boeing with its AD work, to get all the MAX's ready to return to service. I guess its a wait and see for more Amazon planes at SY.. Remember these 3 words." SUBJECT TO CHANGE" used to be printed on the bottom of all airline schedules
"Don't believe it unless its parked on the ramp, or printed in the schedule...SUBJECT TO CHANGE"

I'm a SUNDUCK......Worked for RC & SY @ MSP
 
USAirKid
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Wed Aug 05, 2020 8:40 am

wjcandee wrote:
1337Delta764 wrote:
Also, Amazon might have a log for each ZIP code on how reliable each carrier is as well as the cost of shipping to that ZIP code. If one carrier is too unreliable in a specific ZIP code, Amazon might deprioritize that carrier for that ZIP code.


They absolutely do this, or something similar. It's why for a while they pulled back on USPS deliveries to my country zip on Sundays, until USPS got its act together out here on Sunday. They monitor vendors and hold them accountable, like any good business should. It's impressive, though, that they can do it with this level of granularity on volume of this scale.


I'm not sure why y'all consider this amazing. Amazon years ago started recording all the package tracking information in their systems. This was co-incident with them not listing the tracking number in the shipping email. (The reason for that was to prevent other companies from offering promotions to users so they could automatically review their email and get the tracking number and gain info on Amazon.)

Once Amazon has the tracking information they record the shipment information. Did it make it ontime? When in the day did it arrive? You'll then start doing data reporting on carrier routes, ZIP codes, etc and look for trends and adjust appropriately. I doubt this is done manually anymore. Amazon is rentless in optimization. (That was their original name: relentless.com still redirects to Amazon.) Its likely this isn't a hard lever, if USPS delivers more packages on time for a specific ZIP, their ontime rating goes up, and when Amazon is calculating the delivery service to use to deliver to that ZIP over the multiple options, USPS gets a boost when they come out nearly even with another option.

enplaned wrote:
I could see rural delivery version of Amazon - Amazon cafes/convenience stores near the remaining business centers of rural counties. Pick up your Amazon packages at a central location and get a free cup of coffee, low-priced essentials like milk, and chat with your neighbors at the same time. Or maybe there will be some kind of benefit where if you pick stuff up at the central location X times, you get a free something else - a reduction your Prime membership fee, perhaps. A loyalty program of some kind to induce people to pick up centrally. That tradeoff could be absolutely worth it for Amazon if it allows them to reduce the cost of the last mile. If they do it right, they'll get credit for encouraging a sense of community at the same time.


They already have this. Its called Amazon Locker. I consistently see them provide free delivery to an Amazon Locker a day earlier than delivery to my apartment. I'm not sure the capital and operational expense makes sense for them to open their own stores in a low volume region, they'd much rather lease space in front of a grocery store, convenience store, or gas station and put in an Amazon Locker that gets serviced by their existing carriers. I bet that Amazon is probably getting the results they want from delivering a day earlier to Lockers, so they're probably not going to bother with promotions like giving away freebies, people can and will game those things. Freebie for ordering 5 times to the delivery location? What was one or two packages, just became five.
Last edited by USAirKid on Wed Aug 05, 2020 8:51 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
USAirKid
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Wed Aug 05, 2020 8:49 am

I've been finding an odd trend in a few of my deliveries. I've been using Amazon Day to consolidate my deliveries. I had always figured this was something that they started moving the items I ordered to a FC close to me, then they'd pack them all up and deliver them in one package.

Instead, I've gotten UPS Next Day Air packages from distant FCs. Theres a package in transit to me from Opa-Locka, FL near Miami to my home in Seattle. I'm sure this isn't the maximum possible distance in the continental-US, but its pretty close. Last week's package went from Moreno Valley, CA near LA to Seattle, so it wasn't as bad, but there are a string of FCs between here and there.

Amazon might've just lost doubly out on my orders and bit the bullet on the next day air, but it does seem odd that they wouldn't have tried to ship them earlier and use the cheaper two day air option. I've been pondering how much upto date operational data UPS shares with Amazon. Perhaps these planes were light from UPS's projections, so they gave Amazon a deal to put packages on them? Of course this would be automated in some way, but I could see this sort of information sharing being a win-win.
 
JRadier
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Wed Aug 05, 2020 9:35 am

enplaned wrote:
Let's remember, an air delivery is in some sense a failure to place inventory optimally. It's nothing that Amazon wants to do, it's something that Amazon has to do. If there's a cheaper alternative (like delivering by truck from a local FC) Amazon will seek that first.

Thanks for your excellent posts on Amazon. I'm not in the US, and thus know comparatively little on Amazon, but I'm learning a ton. I have a logistics background, and much of what you say makes total sense.

One addition to the point above. I agree that in many cases an air delivery is a failure in inventory management, but it doesn't hold true in every case. For high cost units with few sales (or hard to predict sales) the inventory costs of having it in every DC might outweigh the cost of air delivery. In that case it makes financial sense to keep it in a few limited DCs, and air deliver it.
 
enplaned
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Wed Aug 05, 2020 12:40 pm

JRadier wrote:
enplaned wrote:
Let's remember, an air delivery is in some sense a failure to place inventory optimally. It's nothing that Amazon wants to do, it's something that Amazon has to do. If there's a cheaper alternative (like delivering by truck from a local FC) Amazon will seek that first.

Thanks for your excellent posts on Amazon. I'm not in the US, and thus know comparatively little on Amazon, but I'm learning a ton. I have a logistics background, and much of what you say makes total sense.

One addition to the point above. I agree that in many cases an air delivery is a failure in inventory management, but it doesn't hold true in every case. For high cost units with few sales (or hard to predict sales) the inventory costs of having it in every DC might outweigh the cost of air delivery. In that case it makes financial sense to keep it in a few limited DCs, and air deliver it.


Correct. Rare items will be typically be held in just one location, or just a few locations, and that will require more air deliveries on those items. I think I might even have mentioned that once before. I really should say something like "generally-speaking", air delivery represents an inventory stocking failure.

Or perhaps, even more so, "slow-moving" items and/or items that are sized to a person's size. A particular type of shoe might not be rare overall, but because it's sized, any individual size might move slowly. Amazon has FCs that specialize in sized items - a specific size of shoe or shirt or whatever might tend to move slowly and be held only in a specific FC. Again, such items may require a higher proportion of air delivery.
 
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1337Delta764
Topic Author
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Wed Aug 05, 2020 12:57 pm

enplaned wrote:
JRadier wrote:
enplaned wrote:
Let's remember, an air delivery is in some sense a failure to place inventory optimally. It's nothing that Amazon wants to do, it's something that Amazon has to do. If there's a cheaper alternative (like delivering by truck from a local FC) Amazon will seek that first.

Thanks for your excellent posts on Amazon. I'm not in the US, and thus know comparatively little on Amazon, but I'm learning a ton. I have a logistics background, and much of what you say makes total sense.

One addition to the point above. I agree that in many cases an air delivery is a failure in inventory management, but it doesn't hold true in every case. For high cost units with few sales (or hard to predict sales) the inventory costs of having it in every DC might outweigh the cost of air delivery. In that case it makes financial sense to keep it in a few limited DCs, and air deliver it.


Correct. Rare items will be typically be held in just one location, or just a few locations, and that will require more air deliveries on those items. I think I might even have mentioned that once before. I really should say something like "generally-speaking", air delivery represents an inventory stocking failure.

Or perhaps, even more so, "slow-moving" items and/or items that are sized to a person's size. A particular type of shoe might not be rare overall, but because it's sized, any individual size might move slowly. Amazon has FCs that specialize in sized items - a specific size of shoe or shirt or whatever might tend to move slowly and be held only in a specific FC. Again, such items may require a higher proportion of air delivery.


Only specific FCs are equipped to stock apparel and footwear, and not all of them may stock every item. While some Sortable or Non-Sortable FCs may have some Apparel/Footwear, there are a few mostly dedicated to Apparel/Footwear.
 
jetblueguy22
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Wed Aug 05, 2020 1:33 pm

1337Delta764 wrote:
Also, Amazon might have a log for each ZIP code on how reliable each carrier is as well as the cost of shipping to that ZIP code. If one carrier is too unreliable in a specific ZIP code, Amazon might deprioritize that carrier for that ZIP code.

I have always said Amazon knows the UPS network better than UPS. I’ve seen certain circumstances where service was suffering due to volume/weather/etc and all of a sudden the volume disappeared overnight.
Look at sweatpants guy. This is a 90 million dollar aircraft, not a Tallahassee strip club
 
jetblueguy22
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Wed Aug 05, 2020 1:38 pm

USAirKid wrote:
I've been finding an odd trend in a few of my deliveries. I've been using Amazon Day to consolidate my deliveries. I had always figured this was something that they started moving the items I ordered to a FC close to me, then they'd pack them all up and deliver them in one package.

Instead, I've gotten UPS Next Day Air packages from distant FCs. Theres a package in transit to me from Opa-Locka, FL near Miami to my home in Seattle. I'm sure this isn't the maximum possible distance in the continental-US, but its pretty close. Last week's package went from Moreno Valley, CA near LA to Seattle, so it wasn't as bad, but there are a string of FCs between here and there.

Amazon might've just lost doubly out on my orders and bit the bullet on the next day air, but it does seem odd that they wouldn't have tried to ship them earlier and use the cheaper two day air option. I've been pondering how much upto date operational data UPS shares with Amazon. Perhaps these planes were light from UPS's projections, so they gave Amazon a deal to put packages on them? Of course this would be automated in some way, but I could see this sort of information sharing being a win-win.

Amazon just like any other major company will have an agreement to keep certain discounts. If they’re not hitting their target numbers they’re going to ship heavier certain days to maintain that rate. It may cost them more today, but it protects the network cost in case of a surge.
Look at sweatpants guy. This is a 90 million dollar aircraft, not a Tallahassee strip club
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Wed Aug 05, 2020 3:14 pm

jetblueguy22 wrote:
1337Delta764 wrote:
Also, Amazon might have a log for each ZIP code on how reliable each carrier is as well as the cost of shipping to that ZIP code. If one carrier is too unreliable in a specific ZIP code, Amazon might deprioritize that carrier for that ZIP code.

I have always said Amazon knows the UPS network better than UPS. I’ve seen certain circumstances where service was suffering due to volume/weather/etc and all of a sudden the volume disappeared overnight.


Absolutely. Same for FedEx. Remember when Amazon told Prime self-shipping merchants that they couldn't use FedEx Ground for a time last year? Amazon said it was because FedEx Ground wasn't performing well. The media got all in a lather about Evil Amazon PUNISHING Poor Little FedEx because it dared to spit in Amazon's eye by refusing to renew its contracts. FedEx indignantly said, "We have NO PROBLEM at Ground." ---------- Then, like a week later, the media was writing stories about how FedEx Ground was sucking big time, quoting the usual recipients about "I didn't get my Unicorn Dust on time." Finally, FedEx had to admit "isolated challenges" or some PR-Speak.

Amazon forbade Ground's use temporarily because it saw that Ground sucked before FedEx did (or at least would admit).
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Wed Aug 05, 2020 3:52 pm

And 431AZ is off to ROW this morning, presumably for paint. I started to write out some other possibilities as to why it's going to ROW, but decided that when I hear hooves, I should "think horses, not zebras". 99-percent chance it's going for paint.

457AZ, which has been back from paint for a couple of weeks and back from TLV since 6/2, should be going into service sometime soon, I would think.

And 308CM is finally on its way to CWF to be painted for UPS, after a couple of days' delay. (Virgin Orbit 1 is currently doing a 2-hour test flight CWF-CWF as I write this -- so cool.)

Meanwhile, 384AA, which still shows in the FAA computer as pending a number change to 479AZ, did a test flight again today (its second in 3 days) at TLV, so maybe it will be on its way back to the US soon.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Wed Aug 05, 2020 5:32 pm

It now looks like 457AZ will go into service today (8/5/20). First flight should be ILN-ONT shortly.
 
jetmatt777
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Thu Aug 06, 2020 1:18 am

What's frustrating to me is the fact that Amazon tracks all of this, however offers absolutely nothing in return for delayed shipments. Maybe if you complain, but when you know Amazon is watching everything it sucks when they miss a delivery promise and you know they know about it, but don't do anything for you. I ordered some motorcycle sunglasses not too long ago, and when I purchased the item it was advertised that I would receive it next day. It showed up about 5 days later. I don't always have time to send an email or chat with a support person, it would have been nice if they had just automatically said "hey, we screwed up your delivery, here is $5 off your next order." Sometimes it's just acknowledging a problem before the customer does that goes a long way.
 
enplaned
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Thu Aug 06, 2020 2:00 am

jetmatt777 wrote:
What's frustrating to me is the fact that Amazon tracks all of this, however offers absolutely nothing in return for delayed shipments. Maybe if you complain, but when you know Amazon is watching everything it sucks when they miss a delivery promise and you know they know about it, but don't do anything for you. I ordered some motorcycle sunglasses not too long ago, and when I purchased the item it was advertised that I would receive it next day. It showed up about 5 days later. I don't always have time to send an email or chat with a support person, it would have been nice if they had just automatically said "hey, we screwed up your delivery, here is $5 off your next order." Sometimes it's just acknowledging a problem before the customer does that goes a long way.


Amazon is actually pretty bad about tracking what's happening. That is to say, they can tell you where your stuff is, but their systems don't embody the obvious consequence.

I had an item that was supposed to take two days. It left, I think, Nashville or Cinci by truck and returned to the place it left. So, something bad happened - truck broke down, or whatnot. It return from whence it came.

OK, the moment it ended that day back in where it started, for a certainty I knew it was going to be late - it was basically a 24 hour delay of game. But Amazon kept telling me my stuff would arrive on schedule.

Amazon tracking kept telling me where the item was, but when it failed to get to me within the original two days, I got a message from Amazon saying "your stuff is late, if it doesn't arrive in a couple days, let us know". Meanwhile, I knew for a certainty it was arriving on a 24 hour delay, I could see it making the usual moves through the system. And it did get to me 24 hours late.

That was a stupid message for Amazon to send. A normal person probably doesn't track stuff like I do, and they'd be in unnecessary doubt about when/whether they'll get their stuff. Amazon has all the pieces to have told me, a day or two earlier, "uh oh, something bad happened, it's going to be 24 hours late, sorry" and adjust the due date. That's a better message to get than "uh oh, sorry, let us know if it doesn't get there in a couple days..."

And yes, their Prime standard of one day or two day delivery is kind of useless when delivering stuff late is without consequence to Amazon. If you are very very persistent, you might get a $10 credit, but they're quite reluctant to hand them out.

Locally I can sometimes get stuff same day (on the Prime network). If I order something and it goes astray, I've been known to order another one because the new order gets here before the original. Then send the original back if/when it shows up (and if the original was sent to a locker, just leave it there... generally speaking, I believe in not inflicting unnecessary cost on vendors, but if Amazon is going to mess us about this way, they kind of deserve it. Besides, it's not as if it's at all material relative to their volume of business. We're not exactly inflicting additional cost on a Mom & Pop store). Especially because sometimes packages really do go completely astray. So you can wait for several days to find out it ain't coming at all.
 
HPRamper
Posts: 5022
Joined: Sat May 14, 2005 4:22 am

Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Thu Aug 06, 2020 9:38 am

wjcandee wrote:

Amazon forbade Ground's use temporarily because it saw that Ground sucked before FedEx did (or at least would admit).

Oh, FedEx Corp has always known Ground sucked. Ground has sucked since the beginning and has gotten steadily worse as volumes increased. They hide behind that PR-speak you mention. The beancounters long ago decided that X-amount of money lost from terrible Ground customer service and reliability was somehow less than X-amount they would be paying to have Express handle the freight instead.

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