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wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Thu Sep 10, 2020 3:18 am

sunking737 wrote:
Now I will throw a wrench into all of this, What are the chances of more 737-800F flying for Amazon?? Either with SCX, SOO, or both??


I would say, "high probability". Assuming that they have the economics of that fleet where they want them and they have figured out how to best use them. They solved the problem of the carrier (SOO) being a goatrope by bringing in SCX, who jumped all over it. Still, need to understand whether the aircraft meet expectations, and, if they don't, whether it's still viable.
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Thu Sep 10, 2020 4:32 am

What is the total Amazon fleet size now (planes flying for Amazon whether owned, wet leased, dry lease, or on contract.), I saw a number a page up or so that was like 68, but that seemed to only be a portion of it.

Amazon seems to be taking on the whole of retail, building warehouses with the number of products exceeding a Walmart except it is for delivery. Add to that a shipping network on steroids that gets everything else not in the Walmart to be there in Prime Time.

Like Lightsaber brings up about production volume, Amazon is fast approaching a dominant cost structure with advantage larger than the typical business margin.

It is twisting retail, the latest turn is that Simon Properties and Brookfield Property are looking to buy JC Penny out of bankruptcy. It is because the malls will empty without the anchor tenants, so they are becoming the tenant themselves.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Thu Sep 10, 2020 4:44 am

JayinKitsap:

Regarding what is happening in the US, the 68 is the current number when you include a couple of 738s in conformity and a 763 currently in paint. Now one could add a few 763s if you include the couple of aircraft that Atlas uses as maintenance spares most of the year, one 763 and one 762 that ATI uses as maintenance spares (and maybe one more coming this month), and a couple of 762s that ABX uses to cover its routes and/or as maintenance spares. As best I can tell, ABX seems to be flying lines that actually require at least one more aircraft to cover than the six that are dry-leased to Amazon. ABX has six 762s that aren't dry-leased to Amazon. Of those, 312AA usually does military and 783AX is in DHL colors and usually does DHL. They now seem to need at least one more of those to cover another DHL route, So that leaves 3, all of which fly regularly one way or another. It seems like they need at least one of those for Amazon route coverage, and the others function as substitutes and maintenance spares.

As to your other point, some mall operators are trying to put Amazon local fast-distribution facilities in the big boxes vacated by the likes of Sears and such. The theory is that at least there will be the appearance of activity at the Mall, and maybe some Amazonians will shop there. Nothing worse for attracting business than a mall that looks dead and unpatronized.

Anyway, I enjoyed your observations.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Thu Sep 10, 2020 5:40 am

I noticed that N337AZ went back into service tonight after a 47 day (6.7 week) maintenance visit to ILN. That's important only because Peak is approaching, and the carriers would prefer to have all aircraft available for service during that time.

So I took a quick census of the CAM aircraft that are approaching a need for a similar shop visit. Most of the ATSG 767s need such a visit roughly every two years. On the ATI side, 761CX (a 762) is currently in for such a visit and should be out in late October. Of the rest of the fleet, I only see N359AZ as likely needing service before Peak, so I think it's the next one to go in. I would guess soon, given that 337AZ is now back in service. Indeed, 359AZ rotated into ILN tonight; I don't know if it will stay or just come back soon.

On the ABX side, N744AX (an Amazon 762) is at GSO right now and should be there another couple of weeks. ATI doesn't use HAECO Americas (GSO and LCQ) for heavy checks, but ABX does. Indeed, about 10 of the 21 HMVs on ABX 767s over the last two years have been done at GSO. The rest were done at AMES, primarily ILN, but 2 recently at TPA. Of the ABX fleet, only N752AX (a not-Amazon-leased 762) and N362CM (a 763) look like they'll need service before Peak. So that's a manageable number to get done in time, particularly when the outside contractors like HAECO are not as busy because of what's happening in the passenger world.

One other little side-note. At least one of the ATSG aircraft is going to need paint soon: certainly 304CM/395UP. Recently, ATSG has split this duty between Dean Baldwin and Landlocked Aviation, but I realized the other day that CWF (Landlocked) is in Lake Charles, LA. Which just took the brunt of a hurricane. I looked at pictures of the field, and the hangars were just destroyed. The airport is operating, but it's going to be at least a couple of weeks, if not much longer, before Landlocked could get their shop back in order, I would think.
 
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B350pilot
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Thu Sep 10, 2020 12:18 pm

wjcandee wrote:
Well, it looks like what will open next year at CVG will be an 800k sq ft building with 24 aircraft parking locations and an expectation to operate 32 aircraft from there. Five years from then, if they build out the whole thing (which I expect they will), then it becomes 100 spots and a 2.6mm sq ft facility (like 3 times the size of the initial building).

But Amazon within a month or two of today will be operating at least 68 aircraft under CMI contracts, including the 18 737s. So there will be a huge number still of bypass flights.

The UPS Worldport sortation center is currently 5.2 million square feet. So it's bigger, if I'm reading all this correctly. But that Amazon is planning within 6 years to have a building half the size of the Worldport is still pretty-incredible!


the way I read those links was CVG will be much bigger.

5.2M SQ FT = 119 acres (UPS)

CVG link regarding year 2019 site prep: 650 acres
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Thu Sep 10, 2020 1:23 pm

Building size versus property size.
 
MO11
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Thu Sep 10, 2020 1:44 pm

C-GOGN (N521AZ) was sold to Amazon yesterday.
 
danipawa
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Thu Sep 10, 2020 2:10 pm

Boeing 767 -338 25274 396 N503AZ Amazon Services ferried 03/05sep20 LCQ-PHL-TLV, for freighter conversion ex C-FOGJ
Boeing 767 -338 25363 402 C-FWAD WestJet ferried 08sep20 YYC-LCQ ex N326BC
Boeing 767 -338 25576 549 N521AZ Amazon Services regd 09sep20, parked at LCQ ex C-GOGN

https://www.skyliner-aviation.de/regdb. ... av4&page=4
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Thu Sep 10, 2020 2:32 pm

Has anyone played around with algorithms that would give us clues about how Amazon software does deliveries. Categories go from light weight to heavy, high cubic volume (say toilet paper) to low, low value per pound/cubic volume to high, made everywhere to only a single supplier, customers everywhere, to just a few. The permutations may in theory be infinite but still in reality innumerable. Ship, rail, plane, truck and finally Amazon UPS, or USPS vans. On a typical package I get I can understand a little bit of what is going on, but were I to try to go beyond that it would be somewhat of a Just So non-science evolution story.

I wonder if this could include AI to the point that no human could really understand just how it works. In that case, for example, the shipping AI and the accounting AI would be just independent enough to change shipping AI assumptions just a little, and a few days later accounting AI could announce what happened and whether is save money or improved performance. But obviously more complicated than that.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
ILNFlyer
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Thu Sep 10, 2020 4:37 pm

B350pilot wrote:
ILNFlyer wrote:
B350pilot wrote:

I am curious what company will actually operate/fly these...


ATI according to the release.

ATSG Airline to Operate Six More 767 Freighters for Amazon Air

"ATSG subsidiary Air Transport International will fly all six of the 767s to be added to the Amazon CMI agreement. "


excellent, need glasses. did not see that


LOL, they buried it at the bottom of the release.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Thu Sep 10, 2020 5:11 pm

danipawa wrote:
Boeing 767 -338 25274 396 N503AZ Amazon Services ferried 03/05sep20 LCQ-PHL-TLV, for freighter conversion ex C-FOGJ
Boeing 767 -338 25363 402 C-FWAD WestJet ferried 08sep20 YYC-LCQ ex N326BC
Boeing 767 -338 25576 549 N521AZ Amazon Services regd 09sep20, parked at LCQ ex C-GOGN

https://www.skyliner-aviation.de/regdb. ... av4&page=4


Yep. All reported above.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Thu Sep 10, 2020 5:17 pm

FmrCapCadet: I was just thinking that in addition to the characteristics of the Package and Customer Location, there is also probably two dynamic components, which are Performance of (each) Potential Carrier and Volume Commitment. The latter meaning where are they in their volume commitment to a carrier and/or volume limit at a carrier? If they have guaranteed 5 boxes to Carrier X today, and they have only used 1, do they use Carrier X even if it is otherwise the more-expensive option. Carrier Performance they publicly-say that they monitor, automatically and by lane. So whether Carrier Y is meeting service commitments today either generally or to a particular area will also factor into the decision, in probably a much-more-sophisticated way than I just explained.
 
USAirKid
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Thu Sep 10, 2020 7:48 pm

FmrCapCadet & wjcandee:

I think you'd be hard pressed to get enough data to really start figuring these things out. Amazon considers them to be proprietary, so they're not going to just let them out. Plus many years ago they made it so tracking numbers for packages were only available on their website when you're logged in, before that those tracking numbers were just in the emails directly, which meant that various Gmail add ins could collect them and track them. That change is probably one of the most customer unfriendly changes they've made, but they've stuck with it.

That being said, it is fascinating to think about how they balance all of these things, plus there is the additional layer of determining what FC the item ships from. Is it better to send one package from a far off FC, or to send two packages, one from a close in FC? It is interesting watching how Amazon makes these decisions on our individual packages, and pondering what is driving all of those decisions.
 
USAirKid
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Thu Sep 10, 2020 7:49 pm

ILNFlyer wrote:
B350pilot wrote:
ILNFlyer wrote:

ATI according to the release.

ATSG Airline to Operate Six More 767 Freighters for Amazon Air

"ATSG subsidiary Air Transport International will fly all six of the 767s to be added to the Amazon CMI agreement. "


excellent, need glasses. did not see that


LOL, they buried it at the bottom of the release.


LOL, its the third paragraph of a three paragraph release.. Its not like they buried it in paragraph 87.
 
autopiloton
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Thu Sep 10, 2020 8:51 pm

N381AN was finally added to ATI today.
 
jetblueguy22
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Thu Sep 10, 2020 10:36 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
Has anyone played around with algorithms that would give us clues about how Amazon software does deliveries. Categories go from light weight to heavy, high cubic volume (say toilet paper) to low, low value per pound/cubic volume to high, made everywhere to only a single supplier, customers everywhere, to just a few. The permutations may in theory be infinite but still in reality innumerable. Ship, rail, plane, truck and finally Amazon UPS, or USPS vans. On a typical package I get I can understand a little bit of what is going on, but were I to try to go beyond that it would be somewhat of a Just So non-science evolution story.

I wonder if this could include AI to the point that no human could really understand just how it works. In that case, for example, the shipping AI and the accounting AI would be just independent enough to change shipping AI assumptions just a little, and a few days later accounting AI could announce what happened and whether is save money or improved performance. But obviously more complicated than that.

The amount of hours I’ve spent trying to figure out their algorithms would knock your socks off. I had spreadsheets with all the locations they would send packages each day and tried to find patterns but it was really all over the place.

The only constant was this, if the USPS was falling behind we’d get slammed with an area. There was a week last peak where they were 3 or 4 days behind in NY/NJ and we just got absolutely smoked with pieces going there. I mean we’d get a handful each day and then it just exploded.
Look at sweatpants guy. This is a 90 million dollar aircraft, not a Tallahassee strip club
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Fri Sep 11, 2020 12:10 am

Jetblue - interesting to hear some one who has tried to figure this out. I am not surprised about your results.
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USAirKid
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Fri Sep 11, 2020 3:25 am

jetblueguy22 wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
Has anyone played around with algorithms that would give us clues about how Amazon software does deliveries. Categories go from light weight to heavy, high cubic volume (say toilet paper) to low, low value per pound/cubic volume to high, made everywhere to only a single supplier, customers everywhere, to just a few. The permutations may in theory be infinite but still in reality innumerable. Ship, rail, plane, truck and finally Amazon UPS, or USPS vans. On a typical package I get I can understand a little bit of what is going on, but were I to try to go beyond that it would be somewhat of a Just So non-science evolution story.

I wonder if this could include AI to the point that no human could really understand just how it works. In that case, for example, the shipping AI and the accounting AI would be just independent enough to change shipping AI assumptions just a little, and a few days later accounting AI could announce what happened and whether is save money or improved performance. But obviously more complicated than that.

The amount of hours I’ve spent trying to figure out their algorithms would knock your socks off. I had spreadsheets with all the locations they would send packages each day and tried to find patterns but it was really all over the place.

The only constant was this, if the USPS was falling behind we’d get slammed with an area. There was a week last peak where they were 3 or 4 days behind in NY/NJ and we just got absolutely smoked with pieces going there. I mean we’d get a handful each day and then it just exploded.


Who is we? Are they Brown? Grey/Blue? Or perhaps purple, and orange? Or even worse old purple and green?
 
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1337Delta764
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Fri Sep 11, 2020 3:37 pm

USAirKid wrote:
jetblueguy22 wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
Has anyone played around with algorithms that would give us clues about how Amazon software does deliveries. Categories go from light weight to heavy, high cubic volume (say toilet paper) to low, low value per pound/cubic volume to high, made everywhere to only a single supplier, customers everywhere, to just a few. The permutations may in theory be infinite but still in reality innumerable. Ship, rail, plane, truck and finally Amazon UPS, or USPS vans. On a typical package I get I can understand a little bit of what is going on, but were I to try to go beyond that it would be somewhat of a Just So non-science evolution story.

I wonder if this could include AI to the point that no human could really understand just how it works. In that case, for example, the shipping AI and the accounting AI would be just independent enough to change shipping AI assumptions just a little, and a few days later accounting AI could announce what happened and whether is save money or improved performance. But obviously more complicated than that.

The amount of hours I’ve spent trying to figure out their algorithms would knock your socks off. I had spreadsheets with all the locations they would send packages each day and tried to find patterns but it was really all over the place.

The only constant was this, if the USPS was falling behind we’d get slammed with an area. There was a week last peak where they were 3 or 4 days behind in NY/NJ and we just got absolutely smoked with pieces going there. I mean we’d get a handful each day and then it just exploded.


Who is we? Are they Brown? Grey/Blue? Or perhaps purple, and orange? Or even worse old purple and green?


I think he works for UPS. Amazon monitors the performance of each carrier in every ZIP code every day, and whenever a certain carrier underperforms, Amazon will use a different carrier. Some factors include by may not be limited to cost, delivery time, and reliability.
 
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Spacepope
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Fri Sep 11, 2020 4:06 pm

wjcandee wrote:
danipawa wrote:
Boeing 767 -338 25274 396 N503AZ Amazon Services ferried 03/05sep20 LCQ-PHL-TLV, for freighter conversion ex C-FOGJ
Boeing 767 -338 25363 402 C-FWAD WestJet ferried 08sep20 YYC-LCQ ex N326BC
Boeing 767 -338 25576 549 N521AZ Amazon Services regd 09sep20, parked at LCQ ex C-GOGN

https://www.skyliner-aviation.de/regdb. ... av4&page=4


Yep. All reported above.


How's TLV with CAM conversions? Backed up or will they be able to get all 4 ex-Westjet frames in soon?

Is MEX still operational?
The last of the famous international playboys
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Fri Sep 11, 2020 4:11 pm

Spacepope wrote:
wjcandee wrote:
danipawa wrote:
Boeing 767 -338 25274 396 N503AZ Amazon Services ferried 03/05sep20 LCQ-PHL-TLV, for freighter conversion ex C-FOGJ
Boeing 767 -338 25363 402 C-FWAD WestJet ferried 08sep20 YYC-LCQ ex N326BC
Boeing 767 -338 25576 549 N521AZ Amazon Services regd 09sep20, parked at LCQ ex C-GOGN

https://www.skyliner-aviation.de/regdb. ... av4&page=4


Yep. All reported above.


How's TLV with CAM conversions? Backed up or will they be able to get all 4 ex-Westjet frames in soon?

Is MEX still operational?


It will be interesting to see where and when the Westjet 767-300s move.

MEX is indeed still operational, but because of the size of Mexicana MRO's hangar, it can only (or does only) have one 767 cut open at a time. They have a lot of ramp space, but only one 767 fits in the hangar at one time, so they have only worked on one conversion at a time. They work quickly, though. generally under 5 months. N348AN has been at MEX since 7/1/20 to be converted for DHL, and DHL has another former AA aircraft that it has bought in anticipation of conversion, which presumably will go to MEX when 348AN is done or nearly-done.
 
machbullet
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Fri Sep 11, 2020 4:34 pm

wjcandee wrote:
Well, it looks like what will open next year at CVG will be an 800k sq ft building with 24 aircraft parking locations and an expectation to operate 32 aircraft from there. Five years from then, if they build out the whole thing (which I expect they will), then it becomes 100 spots and a 2.6mm sq ft facility (like 3 times the size of the initial building).

But Amazon within a month or two of today will be operating at least 68 aircraft under CMI contracts, including the 18 737s. So there will be a huge number still of bypass flights.

The UPS Worldport sortation center is currently 5.2 million square feet. So it's bigger, if I'm reading all this correctly. But that Amazon is planning within 6 years to have a building half the size of the Worldport is still pretty-incredible!


Looks like SDF will have some stiff competition next door
 
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1337Delta764
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Sat Sep 12, 2020 2:22 am

BTW, eBay just announced last week it is integrating UPS as a shipping carrier on its site to print labels. While eBay hasn't stated whether or not they plan to drop FedEx, UPS might get a boost from the eBay partnership.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Sat Sep 12, 2020 2:38 am

1337Delta764 wrote:
BTW, eBay just announced last week it is integrating UPS as a shipping carrier on its site to print labels. While eBay hasn't stated whether or not they plan to drop FedEx, UPS might get a boost from the eBay partnership.


The Postal Service was the primary beneficiary of EBay shipping labels. But it was a disaster, even Priority Mail, from March through July. Not everywhere, but anything that went through LA or Detroit got hung up for a week or more, in my personal experience. Just dropped into a black hole and emerged sometimes 10 days later, or kept being marked as dispatched from a center and then inducted back into the center. Horrible. It has smoothed out recently. (Probably the new guy that everyone hates is actually getting things running properly despite the political brouhaha.) Regardless, to have an easy way to ship UPS would probably be an advantage.

Remember when everything from Amazon came by Priority Mail? I do.

Just like my Netflix DVDs.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Sat Sep 12, 2020 6:43 am

I saw a picture of N381AN today on Flickr. It is currently in TPA but about to go into service for ATI as, among other things, a maintenance spare for the Amazon contract. It hasn't been repainted since conversion, but IAI rolled some not-quite-matching-but-pretty-close grey paint over the areas of green metalwork done during the conversion, and it doesn't look bad. Unless AMES did something about the rudder in TPA, the rudder still has the "American Flag" livery from American Airlines on it. As you probably-know, you can't just roll a bunch of paint on the rudder; there are special procedures involved, so it usually awaits the professional paint shop before its appearance is changed after conversion. So, once again, ATI will have a unique-looking aircraft flying around during Peak. If it ends up being dry-leased to Amazon, then it will get the Amazon livery in a full-repaint post-Peak. If it sticks around as an ATI maintenance spare for the Amazon contract and other uses for a while, they'll make the call about how long it is planned to be in ATI-directed service and decide whether to paint it all-white and apply an ATI sticker.
 
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Spacepope
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Sat Sep 12, 2020 1:03 pm

wjcandee wrote:
1337Delta764 wrote:
BTW, eBay just announced last week it is integrating UPS as a shipping carrier on its site to print labels. While eBay hasn't stated whether or not they plan to drop FedEx, UPS might get a boost from the eBay partnership.


The Postal Service was the primary beneficiary of EBay shipping labels. But it was a disaster, even Priority Mail, from March through July. Not everywhere, but anything that went through LA or Detroit got hung up for a week or more, in my personal experience. Just dropped into a black hole and emerged sometimes 10 days later, or kept being marked as dispatched from a center and then inducted back into the center. Horrible. It has smoothed out recently. (Probably the new guy that everyone hates is actually getting things running properly despite the political brouhaha.) Regardless, to have an easy way to ship UPS would probably be an advantage.

Remember when everything from Amazon came by Priority Mail? I do.

Just like my Netflix DVDs.


Priority mail? Hell, I have an old Amazon box that was delivered by Airborne Express. Fun to think Year’s later Amazon packagesmight still benflying around on the slim aircraft.
The last of the famous international playboys
 
MO11
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Sat Sep 12, 2020 1:54 pm

Amazon purchased C-FWAD (N563AZ) yesterday.
 
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1337Delta764
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Sat Sep 12, 2020 3:03 pm

wjcandee wrote:
1337Delta764 wrote:

Remember when everything from Amazon came by Priority Mail? I do.

Just like my Netflix DVDs.


I know Amazon still does some Alaska/Hawaii/Puerto Rico via Priority Mail, although with the Amazon Air flights that might now be less common.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Sat Sep 12, 2020 5:14 pm

MO11 wrote:
Amazon purchased C-FWAD (N563AZ) yesterday.


And as previously-noted, it has been at LCQ since 9/8/20. They're moving at a good clip. Arrivals into LCQ were 8/19, 8/31, 9/8. C-FOGT, presumably the next one, is still at YYC. That would clear out the retired Westjet fleet of 767-300s.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Sat Sep 12, 2020 6:33 pm

N381AN in the air this afternoon (9/12/20) from TPA to AFW as flight ATN381. First flight under an ATI callsign. Presumably traveling to pick up an Amazon route from AFW, but I guess we'll see.
 
jetblueguy22
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Sat Sep 12, 2020 8:50 pm

USAirKid wrote:
jetblueguy22 wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
Has anyone played around with algorithms that would give us clues about how Amazon software does deliveries. Categories go from light weight to heavy, high cubic volume (say toilet paper) to low, low value per pound/cubic volume to high, made everywhere to only a single supplier, customers everywhere, to just a few. The permutations may in theory be infinite but still in reality innumerable. Ship, rail, plane, truck and finally Amazon UPS, or USPS vans. On a typical package I get I can understand a little bit of what is going on, but were I to try to go beyond that it would be somewhat of a Just So non-science evolution story.

I wonder if this could include AI to the point that no human could really understand just how it works. In that case, for example, the shipping AI and the accounting AI would be just independent enough to change shipping AI assumptions just a little, and a few days later accounting AI could announce what happened and whether is save money or improved performance. But obviously more complicated than that.

The amount of hours I’ve spent trying to figure out their algorithms would knock your socks off. I had spreadsheets with all the locations they would send packages each day and tried to find patterns but it was really all over the place.

The only constant was this, if the USPS was falling behind we’d get slammed with an area. There was a week last peak where they were 3 or 4 days behind in NY/NJ and we just got absolutely smoked with pieces going there. I mean we’d get a handful each day and then it just exploded.


Who is we? Are they Brown? Grey/Blue? Or perhaps purple, and orange? Or even worse old purple and green?

Brown.

I work for the guys on the thread title now, so unfortunately I will primarily be an observer now.
Look at sweatpants guy. This is a 90 million dollar aircraft, not a Tallahassee strip club
 
jetblueguy22
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Sat Sep 12, 2020 8:54 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
Jetblue - interesting to hear some one who has tried to figure this out. I am not surprised about your results.

I will say this. Amazon knows their delivery partner’s networks better than they do. I firmly believe that
Look at sweatpants guy. This is a 90 million dollar aircraft, not a Tallahassee strip club
 
jetblueguy22
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Sat Sep 12, 2020 8:57 pm

machbullet wrote:
wjcandee wrote:
Well, it looks like what will open next year at CVG will be an 800k sq ft building with 24 aircraft parking locations and an expectation to operate 32 aircraft from there. Five years from then, if they build out the whole thing (which I expect they will), then it becomes 100 spots and a 2.6mm sq ft facility (like 3 times the size of the initial building).

But Amazon within a month or two of today will be operating at least 68 aircraft under CMI contracts, including the 18 737s. So there will be a huge number still of bypass flights.

The UPS Worldport sortation center is currently 5.2 million square feet. So it's bigger, if I'm reading all this correctly. But that Amazon is planning within 6 years to have a building half the size of the Worldport is still pretty-incredible!


Looks like SDF will have some stiff competition next door

Will be interesting to see if a bunch of UPSers go over to Amazon because of this.
Look at sweatpants guy. This is a 90 million dollar aircraft, not a Tallahassee strip club
 
jbs2886
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Sat Sep 12, 2020 11:32 pm

jetblueguy22 wrote:
USAirKid wrote:
jetblueguy22 wrote:
The amount of hours I’ve spent trying to figure out their algorithms would knock your socks off. I had spreadsheets with all the locations they would send packages each day and tried to find patterns but it was really all over the place.

The only constant was this, if the USPS was falling behind we’d get slammed with an area. There was a week last peak where they were 3 or 4 days behind in NY/NJ and we just got absolutely smoked with pieces going there. I mean we’d get a handful each day and then it just exploded.


Who is we? Are they Brown? Grey/Blue? Or perhaps purple, and orange? Or even worse old purple and green?

Brown.

I work for the guys on the thread title now, so unfortunately I will primarily be an observer now.


Welcome to then club then! Should get a Gather group for avgeeks
 
autopiloton
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Sun Sep 13, 2020 1:33 am

I'm guessing it will either sit hot reserve duty in AFW or I know that ATI has been doing maintenance work in AFW as well. Will be curious to see how long it stays in AFW. I was expecting it to go to ILN.

wjcandee wrote:
N381AN in the air this afternoon (9/12/20) from TPA to AFW as flight ATN381. First flight under an ATI callsign. Presumably traveling to pick up an Amazon route from AFW, but I guess we'll see.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:58 am

It will be interesting to see how much, if at all, the second Coronavirus lockdown in Israel will affect progress on the aircraft that ATSG and Amazon have at IAI at the moment. (Six ATSG, one Amazon.) I don't know if IAI is considered an essential business, as such operations were generally in the US. Apparently, the prime minister's original plan was to target hotspots, but there were what the WSJ characterized as complex political concerns about a targeted approach in light of the upcoming important religious holidays, so they're going to spread the pain nationwide and shut down the whole country, with probably devastating economic effect.
 
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B350pilot
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Mon Sep 14, 2020 4:12 am

How long would it take for six 767s to become operational and flying cargo for ATI? Can we expect these "early 2021" ?
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Mon Sep 14, 2020 5:55 am

[*][*]
B350pilot wrote:
How long would it take for six 767s to become operational and flying cargo for ATI? Can we expect these "early 2021" ?


Well, just FWIW, it's pretty-clear that at least one of the six and possibly two are going to go somewhere other than to Amazon, and maybe one of those will be going first to ATI as a spare and maybe later to Amazon. We shall see...which makes it fun!

But to answer your question about how fast IAI can turn out 6 conversions, the answer is between 5-6 months from the time the plane arrives, given what ATSG wants done to them. Just cutting and installing a cargo door can be done faster, but these aircraft basically get a heavy-check and the concurrent modifications to make them suitable freighters and to be flyable for another 20 years, as well as the cargo-door installation. IAI's second-line facility at Mexicana MRO in MEX has been converting aircraft for DHL (flown by Kalitta) in as fast as a little-less than 4 months, with the average about 4.25 months, but I'm not sure the scope of work is identical. The problem with the MEX operation is that they only do one aircraft at a time. So the plus is that all their attention is focused on it; the minus is they don't do stuff concurrently. ATSG gets its aircraft back unpainted from TLV; at MEX, I think they roll it somewhere there for paint. (Paint takes 2 weeks at ATSG's painting contractors.) Couple of other differences.

So figure that, from the time the aircraft arrives at TLV, roughly six months over there, then upon to return to the US a couple of weeks of conformity and such at AMES and two weeks in paint if it's going to be painted then. So good rule of thumb is 7 months give or take from arrival in TLV to earliest-possible in-service date.

I noticed that the most recently-delivered-to-ATSG conversion will be flown as a spare by ATI during Peak and maybe leased to Amazon next year, so rather than spend the two weeks in paint now, ATI will run it with the new metalwork having been painted grey over the green by IAI, and then send it for a full painting before it, say, goes to Amazon.

And, of course, things can be discovered during the heavy-check that require parts, paperwork, engineering, and/or approvals beyond the norm, and slow things down. One nice thing about the fleet of similar retired-AA 767-300s is that they are going to have been well-maintained and have excellent, complete, single-owner maintenance records kept under the same standards and protocols, which can help the whole process go faster. (And I am led to understand that sometimes when aircraft are owned, operated, and maintained in other countries, getting a clear, nuanced translation of what notations in other languages actually mean in technical terms can sometimes lead to conformity delays. So given that the AA aircraft were largely-maintained in Oklahoma their whole lives can eliminate that potential delay.)

Right now, the ATSG aircraft have been arriving in TLV at a pace of about 1 per month, give or take. Specifically, 3/31, 4/11, 5/31, 7/8, 8/20, 9/11. And in Israel, IAI can be working on something like 16 aircraft simultaneously at its facility (for MRO work and conversions). It's big. So figure that the aircraft that has been there longest from ATSG right now, N394AN, would under normal circumstances be getting ready right about now or in the next week or so to head back to the US, followed in order by the other ones.

Hope that helps!!
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:57 am

Looks like N393AN is going to be the next one to leave ROW for conversion. Registered to CAM on Friday.
 
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yochai
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Mon Sep 14, 2020 2:58 pm

The next ex WestJet 767-300 for Amazon, N521AZ, will be arriving TLV on Friday afternoon from PHL for freighter mods.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Tue Sep 15, 2020 1:30 am

yochai wrote:
The next ex WestJet 767-300 for Amazon, N521AZ, will be arriving TLV on Friday afternoon from PHL for freighter mods.


Thanks, Yochai! They aren't messing around with the speed that they are doing this. Do you have any insights regarding the effects the 3-week Covid shutdown will have? Is IAI considered "essential"? I would imagine that they are, but politics is a strange animal.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Tue Sep 15, 2020 1:46 am

HAECO seems to have finished up on N304CM at LCQ after 12 days, and it is flying out tomorrow to ILN with its new tail number, N393UP. Presumably it will get the Collins LFDS upgrade there. Totally-secondhand information is that the first 3 of this group of 5 leased from CAM did not get that upgrade before going into service, but the fourth to be delivered, N395UP, did; it accordingly makes sense that 393UP will get the LFDS as well, which ATSG (AMES) is installing at ILN on all of the UPS 767-300 fleet, two at a time. I count around 31 completed, so approaching half the fleet at this point. The 757s are getting the same upgrade at YXX (Abbotsford, BC), via Cascade Aerospace.

I call it the LFDS which was its original name. I think they've now shortened it to LDS, just like I think they dropped "Rockwell" off of Rockwell Collins.

Sucks. Most of you won't remember, "Rockwell Calculators, I think they're really neat. They have big green numbers, and little rubber feet." I had one. Before that, people mostly used slide rules when they had to divide.

[I saw a recent press release from L2 Aviation, which trumpeted the fact that it had -- get this -- "installed a Rockwell Collins Large Display System on a Boeing 767-300ER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!". Cool, dudes. AMES has quietly done more than 30 now. For a pretty-important customer. I guess it's all in the PR.]
 
dcs921
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Tue Sep 15, 2020 11:35 am

wjcandee wrote:
HAECO seems to have finished up on N304CM at LCQ after 12 days, and it is flying out tomorrow to ILN with its new tail number, N393UP. Presumably it will get the Collins LFDS upgrade there. Totally-secondhand information is that the first 3 of this group of 5 leased from CAM did not get that upgrade before going into service, but the fourth to be delivered, N395UP, did; it accordingly makes sense that 393UP will get the LFDS as well, which ATSG (AMES) is installing at ILN on all of the UPS 767-300 fleet, two at a time. I count around 31 completed, so approaching half the fleet at this point. The 757s are getting the same upgrade at YXX (Abbotsford, BC), via Cascade Aerospace.

I call it the LFDS which was its original name. I think they've now shortened it to LDS, just like I think they dropped "Rockwell" off of Rockwell Collins.

Sucks. Most of you won't remember, "Rockwell Calculators, I think they're really neat. They have big green numbers, and little rubber feet." I had one. Before that, people mostly used slide rules when they had to divide.

[I saw a recent press release from L2 Aviation, which trumpeted the fact that it had -- get this -- "installed a Rockwell Collins Large Display System on a Boeing 767-300ER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!". Cool, dudes. AMES has quietly done more than 30 now. For a pretty-important customer. I guess it's all in the PR.]


12 days for N304CM seems a little quicker than AMES has been able to turn aircraft post freighter conversion. I do wonder when the aircraft will go to paint and how much impact the storm damage at CWF has effected the schedule or paint plans for recent conversions.

AMES has been more consistent in the LDS upgrades recently but have struggled through out the year. The fastest turn I've seen was a little over 12 days.

All of the 757s should have the LDS upgrade now. N468UP left YXX at the end of August and no more UPS 757s have flown in since then. It appears that Cascade Aerospace were very successful in completing the upgrades in 10 to 12 days. The quickest turn that I saw was about 8 days! So successful in fact that apparently UPS has given Cascade Aerospace the chance to do some 767 LDS upgrade, as N315UP flew to YXX on 09Sep20 and is still there.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Tue Sep 15, 2020 2:08 pm

Amazon deliveries are slowing down in the Pacific NW, likely due to the unbelievably thick smoke. Air purification apparatus particularly, upgraded (I have a medium upgraded one) air filters in particular. One week delivery times. And local papers say Amazon is adding another 100,000 workers - this is not the Holiday Seasonal surge of temporary workers. Means they have added to (more or less) permanent staff 270,000 workers this years. Astounding (but still hoping that air filter gets to stow-away on one of those planes).
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Tue Sep 15, 2020 2:51 pm

The CWF storm damage probably doesn't slow anything down. I think that Dean Baldwin has plenty of availability these days, due to the situation in the passenger world, and they're CAM's primary painting contractor. I feel terrible for the Landlocked folks, though. The rest of the information is very interesting!!
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:39 am

Man it must be fun, when one is in business, to have lots of cash behind you when you get the go-ahead on a project! You get to do things on a remarkable scale.

And our favorite largest-scale entity, Amazon, isn't fooling around, now that it has decided to buy its own planes:

C-FOGT arrived in LCQ today. That's the fourth of the 4 retired Westjet 767-300s that Amazon has purchased to convert.

While ATSG is moving pretty-quickly by industry standards when they process one aircraft per month through the acquisition/registration/conversion/conformity process and place it with a carrier, Amazon has now brought FOUR through the initial step in less than ONE month.

Four aircraft in a month. Pretty-sweet.

Next fun thing to watch: can IAI handle conversions at this pace, or will some of them go through the BCF process?
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:50 am

And 381AN just completed its first revenue run with ATI today, 9/16/20, from AFW-ILN, for Amazon.
 
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sunking737
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Thu Sep 17, 2020 2:18 am

Did any of us have any idea at the Aerosmith launch that Prime would be this size this fast?? Will Amazon in turn lease the plans to the carriers??
"Don't believe it unless its parked on the ramp, or printed in the schedule...SUBJECT TO CHANGE"

I'm a SUNDUCK......Worked for RC & SY @ MSP
 
USAirKid
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Thu Sep 17, 2020 3:02 am

Here’s a commentary on Amazon that went out when they got approval for the drones, Amazon’s biggest leap was boring:

But over that same period, Amazon did something else that has transformed home delivery without as much buzz. It effectively built from scratch its own network of package centers, trucks and delivery vans that now handle a majority of Amazon customer orders that used to be dropped off by the Postal Service, UPS or other parcel companies.

While we were eager for innovation from the skies, Amazon delivered something just as innovative with nuts and bolts.


What Amazon did instead was build its own delivery network, essentially creating something not far off the 113-year-old UPS in well under a decade.


Nothing really revolutionary to those of us on this thread, but it’s good to see the rest of the world watching.
 
eightcone
Posts: 8
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Thu Sep 17, 2020 3:35 am

Picking up all the AA 767s was mostly convenience of fleet conformity and good timing. However, if Amazon wants to keep adding 737s is there any chance they look at the 76 frames that AA is looking to retire? They are 20 years old and seem to average about 23k cycles if I pulled FAA incidents correctly.

Now that they have worked through the 767s conversions and know the AA records flavor, would sticking with a identical fleet of frames from the same maintainers be in their best interest?

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