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Spacepope
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Thu Sep 17, 2020 4:01 am

eightcone wrote:
Picking up all the AA 767s was mostly convenience of fleet conformity and good timing. However, if Amazon wants to keep adding 737s is there any chance they look at the 76 frames that AA is looking to retire? They are 20 years old and seem to average about 23k cycles if I pulled FAA incidents correctly.

Now that they have worked through the 767s conversions and know the AA records flavor, would sticking with a identical fleet of frames from the same maintainers be in their best interest?

So far they are picking up a single fleet through a lessor (GECAS). I don’t expect this to change.
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wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Thu Sep 17, 2020 4:18 am

sunking737 wrote:
Did any of us have any idea at the Aerosmith launch that Prime would be this size this fast?? Will Amazon in turn lease the plans to the carriers??


Nope. I did say at the time that the thing about Amazon is that they always have a plan in place in case the growth continues at a particular pace, but nobody expects it ever for sure to go to that scale, and then they end up in a couple of years blowing through even what people thought was impossibly-huge. And it looks like they have done it again. And now, from Jeff's comments not too long ago, it does appear to me that they really are going to try to do organic overnight air. Wow.

My only way to analyze whether they're going to put these aircraft on a CMI contract is this: there isn't an airline of any size in the US that hasn't become unionized, and Amazon's approaches don't typically fit well with a union model. JetBlue thought they could be such a great employer that there wouldn't be a union, but after their founder left, folks really felt the need for one, and there was a lot of agitation for one before then. So Amazon would have to assume that if they started their own airlines it would be a union operation within a short time, and it's hard to see how that would fit. Indeed, once the union was in the door, most likely it would try to hold Amazon hostage for being more amenable to unionizing other parts of their operation. They saw what happened with the ABX strike, which tried to defeat the purpose of going in-house with air shipping (reliability and control), so why borrow that trouble? So better, probably, to continue the CMI agreements. Whether they continue to dance with the ones that brung 'em, we will have to see. They could be sluts like DHL, but I'm hoping that that doesn't happen. By cutting a new deal with Sun Country, they went with a quality operator, even if it wasn't then doing cargo, rather than any number of crap operators who would have loved the business. And it paid off, because SCX got those aircraft in-service and opened new Amazon stations very-effectively. Within the ATSG umbrella, Omni is an obvious candidate for some of this work, as they're a little slow with low tourist business and a bit of a decline in military demand, so they could function like another Sun Country. And they're a well-run operator that already flies a bunch of 767s.

On the other hand, they did open that Staten Island DC, which has been nothing but a pain from a PR and employee-relations perspective, as this NY Kid was saying it was going to be. But they didn't ask me. And sometimes people have to find out for themselves. It's hard to imagine how crazy it is to try to do business in NYC unless you've been here a long time. Mayor Bloomberg tried to recruit Stanford University to do a technology campus on Roosevelt Island -- really laid out the red carpet -- and they ran away in abject terror not too long after they began the process, with people coming out of nowhere demanding their share, and obscure political entities standing there with their hands out. The Stanford people, a pretty-seasoned bunch from having to navigate California craziness, COULDN'T BELIEVE how much it sucked. So they said screw it. Cornell University took over and made it work, because they have literally over a hundred years building and operating stuff in the City (like Cornell Med School -- founded 1898), and knew who, what and where to lubricate --- and how much -- and who, what and where not to.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Thu Sep 17, 2020 8:51 pm

Amazon Blowin' and Goin': N521AZ flew from LCQ to PHL today (9/17/20), following the same route to TLV, apparently, as did N503AZ. This is the retired Westjet former C-GOGN, msn 25576, per FAA, ln 549 per Planespotters.net, first delivered to Qantas in August 1994. A little over a year downtime between Qantas and Westjet, so flying regularly for 25 of its 26 years of age.

It still could go somewhere else, but it seems like this will be the second aircraft off to conversion in TLV in two weeks. One-every-two-weeks could be the blueprint that they will follow going forward. IAI can handle something like 16 large aircraft in its hangars at the same time (for conversion and MRO), so if they have the will (and the parts) there should be a way for them to get this done. So fun to watch! Interesting that whatever firm is doing the ferrying likes to park at that South Apron in PHL overnight before resuming its trip to TLV.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Thu Sep 17, 2020 9:02 pm

I knew as of a few days ago that N393AN would be flying soon to ILN, because CAM just bought it and it has been moving around at ROW. And indeed it flew ROW-ILN today, so it should be going over to TLV in the next couple of weeks. Oddly, it's shown in the system as flying under an AA flight number, but I think that's a mistake. Doesn't make sense that CAM would hire AA to ferry it, I don't think.
 
enplaned
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:01 pm

wjcandee wrote:
sunking737 wrote:
Did any of us have any idea at the Aerosmith launch that Prime would be this size this fast?? Will Amazon in turn lease the plans to the carriers??


Nope.


When was the CVG hub announced? From the beginning the hub was envisioned to be massive. Amazon makes no small plans. Those plans may not come to fruition, but they always have the possibility of a massive outcome in mind. Covid, for sure, has accelerated everything.

Also, Sunking, it's not Prime Air. The aircraft are branded "Prime", but the package air freight business is Amazon Air, not Prime.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:52 pm

enplaned wrote:
wjcandee wrote:
sunking737 wrote:
Did any of us have any idea at the Aerosmith launch that Prime would be this size this fast?? Will Amazon in turn lease the plans to the carriers??


Nope.


When was the CVG hub announced? From the beginning the hub was envisioned to be massive. Amazon makes no small plans. Those plans may not come to fruition, but they always have the possibility of a massive outcome in mind. Covid, for sure, has accelerated everything.

Also, Sunking, it's not Prime Air. The aircraft are branded "Prime", but the package air freight business is Amazon Air, not Prime.


Yeah, and it's not just Amazon that does development that way. There's just a higher possibility that it will actually happen. Having represented a bunch of developers over the years, I know that if they want to build one office tower, they get plans and approvals for two, for example, if the space allows. Why? Because it's a lot of work to get all the approvals, and if the City or whatever is willing to approve the one tower, and it is successful, they're going to be standing there with their hands out, palms up, if you want to expand. So they get the approval for what the development would look like if wildly-successful, and usually it never comes to that.

This government behavior goes times-ten-thousand for Amazon. It's "please, please, please pick us!" during the original planning phase. But once you sink $100 million into their area, and are locked in, many local governments will treat you like you're stuck there and try to extract all sorts of things from you if you want to grow. (Or, in NYC, before you even sign the papers because they're so greedy.) It's stupid, but it's the way it works. So Amazon planned and got approval for a two-phase thingy that was twice as big as anyone in the operation could ever hope it would grow to -- and it now looks like they'll probably, sooner than we think, use the whole thing.

(It's kind of cool, actually, to look at what developers had hoped for. In Dallas, for example, I saw plans for a second Fountain Place tower designed by IM Pei; the shiny glass on the two would have reflected off each other in a really-cool way. Or InterFirst Plaza (now Bank of America Plaza), the green-neon building, which also was to be part of a two-building cityscape. Or CityPlace, which gigantic Southland Corp started for its headquarters and residential development of a blighted part of Dallas, which went kaput after the headquarters went up because Southland divested itself of pretty-much everything except 7/11. Developers are forward-looking personalities because the rear view mirror always reflects a lot of really-cool What Might Have Been. I'll bet the development folks at Amazon are overjoyed that so much of what has been planned-for actually comes to fruition, and then some.)
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Thu Sep 17, 2020 11:47 pm

N433AZ should be coming back to ILN tomorrow from paint at ROW. Looks like it's on-track to be ready for Amazon by 10/1. That will be the last 767-300 officially-dry-leased by Amazon for calendar year 2020. To be flown by ATI. This is the second of two ex-ANA Cargo 767-300BCFs, the only two BCFs in the ATI fleet.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Thu Sep 17, 2020 11:51 pm

And, busy day (9/17/20)! N5233A left conformity at VQQ today and is in transit to IAH under a Southern non-revenue flight number. For those who are counting, that's the 7th 737-800 to go to Southern, and the 17th overall (10 being now at Sun Country).
 
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sunking737
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Fri Sep 18, 2020 12:00 am

Did I see that Amerijet took a 767-300 from CAM. Was that the mystery plane not sure who was taking?
"Don't believe it unless its parked on the ramp, or printed in the schedule...SUBJECT TO CHANGE"

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wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Fri Sep 18, 2020 12:00 am

And a correction about N521AZ. It merely stopped in PHL for 3 hours for fuel and whatever, and in fact is on its way nonstop from there to TLV. Should arrive at about 9am local time on Friday 9/18/20.
 
GoodRide
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Fri Sep 18, 2020 12:55 am

wjcandee wrote:
sunking737 wrote:
Did any of us have any idea at the Aerosmith launch that Prime would be this size this fast?? Will Amazon in turn lease the plans to the carriers??


Nope. I did say at the time that the thing about Amazon is that they always have a plan in place in case the growth continues at a particular pace, but nobody expects it ever for sure to go to that scale, and then they end up in a couple of years blowing through even what people thought was impossibly-huge. And it looks like they have done it again. And now, from Jeff's comments not too long ago, it does appear to me that they really are going to try to do organic overnight air. Wow.

My only way to analyze whether they're going to put these aircraft on a CMI contract is this: there isn't an airline of any size in the US that hasn't become unionized, and Amazon's approaches don't typically fit well with a union model. JetBlue thought they could be such a great employer that there wouldn't be a union, but after their founder left, folks really felt the need for one, and there was a lot of agitation for one before then. So Amazon would have to assume that if they started their own airlines it would be a union operation within a short time, and it's hard to see how that would fit. Indeed, once the union was in the door, most likely it would try to hold Amazon hostage for being more amenable to unionizing other parts of their operation. They saw what happened with the ABX strike, which tried to defeat the purpose of going in-house with air shipping (reliability and control), so why borrow that trouble? So better, probably, to continue the CMI agreements. Whether they continue to dance with the ones that brung 'em, we will have to see. They could be sluts like DHL, but I'm hoping that that doesn't happen. By cutting a new deal with Sun Country, they went with a quality operator, even if it wasn't then doing cargo, rather than any number of crap operators who would have loved the business. And it paid off, because SCX got those aircraft in-service and opened new Amazon stations very-effectively. Within the ATSG umbrella, Omni is an obvious candidate for some of this work, as they're a little slow with low tourist business and a bit of a decline in military demand, so they could function like another Sun Country. And they're a well-run operator that already flies a bunch of 767s.

On the other hand, they did open that Staten Island DC, which has been nothing but a pain from a PR and employee-relations perspective, as this NY Kid was saying it was going to be. But they didn't ask me. And sometimes people have to find out for themselves. It's hard to imagine how crazy it is to try to do business in NYC unless you've been here a long time. Mayor Bloomberg tried to recruit Stanford University to do a technology campus on Roosevelt Island -- really laid out the red carpet -- and they ran away in abject terror not too long after they began the process, with people coming out of nowhere demanding their share, and obscure political entities standing there with their hands out. The Stanford people, a pretty-seasoned bunch from having to navigate California craziness, COULDN'T BELIEVE how much it sucked. So they said screw it. Cornell University took over and made it work, because they have literally over a hundred years building and operating stuff in the City (like Cornell Med School -- founded 1898), and knew who, what and where to lubricate --- and how much -- and who, what and where not to.


With regard to the theory that having a union under any part of the amazon corporate umbrella will lead to unionization creep throughout; I’ve always thought ALPA carriers would have an advantage over Teamsters because of their airline specific focus. Teamsters has been working to get into the Amazon warehouses for years as there are hundreds of thousands of potential members working there. It’s definitely true that union representation can change from time to time, but I just feel like if you knew a union was inevitable, ALPA would not pose quite the threat that Teamsters would.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Fri Sep 18, 2020 2:11 am

GoodRide wrote:
wjcandee wrote:
sunking737 wrote:
Did any of us have any idea at the Aerosmith launch that Prime would be this size this fast?? Will Amazon in turn lease the plans to the carriers??


Nope. I did say at the time that the thing about Amazon is that they always have a plan in place in case the growth continues at a particular pace, but nobody expects it ever for sure to go to that scale, and then they end up in a couple of years blowing through even what people thought was impossibly-huge. And it looks like they have done it again. And now, from Jeff's comments not too long ago, it does appear to me that they really are going to try to do organic overnight air. Wow.

My only way to analyze whether they're going to put these aircraft on a CMI contract is this: there isn't an airline of any size in the US that hasn't become unionized, and Amazon's approaches don't typically fit well with a union model. JetBlue thought they could be such a great employer that there wouldn't be a union, but after their founder left, folks really felt the need for one, and there was a lot of agitation for one before then. So Amazon would have to assume that if they started their own airlines it would be a union operation within a short time, and it's hard to see how that would fit. Indeed, once the union was in the door, most likely it would try to hold Amazon hostage for being more amenable to unionizing other parts of their operation. They saw what happened with the ABX strike, which tried to defeat the purpose of going in-house with air shipping (reliability and control), so why borrow that trouble? So better, probably, to continue the CMI agreements. Whether they continue to dance with the ones that brung 'em, we will have to see. They could be sluts like DHL, but I'm hoping that that doesn't happen. By cutting a new deal with Sun Country, they went with a quality operator, even if it wasn't then doing cargo, rather than any number of crap operators who would have loved the business. And it paid off, because SCX got those aircraft in-service and opened new Amazon stations very-effectively. Within the ATSG umbrella, Omni is an obvious candidate for some of this work, as they're a little slow with low tourist business and a bit of a decline in military demand, so they could function like another Sun Country. And they're a well-run operator that already flies a bunch of 767s.

On the other hand, they did open that Staten Island DC, which has been nothing but a pain from a PR and employee-relations perspective, as this NY Kid was saying it was going to be. But they didn't ask me. And sometimes people have to find out for themselves. It's hard to imagine how crazy it is to try to do business in NYC unless you've been here a long time. Mayor Bloomberg tried to recruit Stanford University to do a technology campus on Roosevelt Island -- really laid out the red carpet -- and they ran away in abject terror not too long after they began the process, with people coming out of nowhere demanding their share, and obscure political entities standing there with their hands out. The Stanford people, a pretty-seasoned bunch from having to navigate California craziness, COULDN'T BELIEVE how much it sucked. So they said screw it. Cornell University took over and made it work, because they have literally over a hundred years building and operating stuff in the City (like Cornell Med School -- founded 1898), and knew who, what and where to lubricate --- and how much -- and who, what and where not to.


With regard to the theory that having a union under any part of the amazon corporate umbrella will lead to unionization creep throughout; I’ve always thought ALPA carriers would have an advantage over Teamsters because of their airline specific focus. Teamsters has been working to get into the Amazon warehouses for years as there are hundreds of thousands of potential members working there. It’s definitely true that union representation can change from time to time, but I just feel like if you knew a union was inevitable, ALPA would not pose quite the threat that Teamsters would.


That makes a lot of sense. And it seems like ALPA is doing well these days. But I think that for exactly the reason that you mention, the Teamsters would pull out all the stops on organizing the pilots, and could very-well be successful at being voted in.
 
gdavis003
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Fri Sep 18, 2020 2:40 am

I know it's not Amazon but figured someone here might know about this since it's ATI. I did not realize that ATI still operated pax/cargo combi aircraft. Looks like according to planespotters they have 4, 3 are active. Does anyone know what ATI uses their combi aircraft for out of curiosity? Seems to be military based on recent flight logs but not sure if they are solely being operated on military contracts.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Fri Sep 18, 2020 4:51 am

gdavis003 wrote:
I know it's not Amazon but figured someone here might know about this since it's ATI. I did not realize that ATI still operated pax/cargo combi aircraft. Looks like according to planespotters they have 4, 3 are active. Does anyone know what ATI uses their combi aircraft for out of curiosity? Seems to be military based on recent flight logs but not sure if they are solely being operated on military contracts.


Sure. It's entirely military, and I understand that they no longer even make an effort to market them as, say, rock-band charters or similar. Interesting runs to very remote places, which you can see from just following their flight history by tail number for say a month. One aircraft is essentially a spare, and indeed one aircraft is in TPA in a heavy check, and has been for a while. Planespotters has been using an algorithm to mark as not active anything that hasn't moved in a month, so 753CX being in maintenance since July 8 caused that notation. All four aircraft are needed for the contract, because you always need a maintenance spare, even if the aircraft, like these, aren't running every day.
 
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B350pilot
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Fri Sep 18, 2020 5:52 pm

enplaned wrote:
wjcandee wrote:
sunking737 wrote:
Did any of us have any idea at the Aerosmith launch that Prime would be this size this fast?? Will Amazon in turn lease the plans to the carriers??


Nope.


When was the CVG hub announced? From the beginning the hub was envisioned to be massive. Amazon makes no small plans. Those plans may not come to fruition, but they always have the possibility of a massive outcome in mind. Covid, for sure, has accelerated everything.

Also, Sunking, it's not Prime Air. The aircraft are branded "Prime", but the package air freight business is Amazon Air, not Prime.


I believe CVG was "public news" (media) circa May 2019: https://www.cvgairport.com/about/next/a ... mazonatcvg

My understanding of the project, based on reading articles, is the physical size will be on par with, or surpass, UPS and Fedex respective primary hubs at SDF and MEM.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Fri Sep 18, 2020 6:05 pm

Dayton Daily News, February 1, 2017: "Retail giant Amazon chose the Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport for its next air cargo hub over the Wilmington Air Park in Clinton County, Ohio officials said. CVG will lease 900 acres to Amazon, where the online retailer will make a $1.49 billion investment and create 2,700 new jobs, according to airport spokeswoman Mindy Kershner."

https://www.daytondailynews.com/news/am ... als%20said.
 
GARUDAROD
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Sat Sep 19, 2020 5:43 pm

Aer Sale just bought 25 Rolls Royce powered B757s for conversion. Anybody think since they are probably ex AA, well maintained, and excellent paper trail, these are the aircraft rumored for the Amazon Australia venture to be based in Brisbane?
Cargo doesn't whine, moan, or complain
 
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Spacepope
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Sat Sep 19, 2020 6:03 pm

GARUDAROD wrote:
Aer Sale just bought 25 Rolls Royce powered B757s for conversion. Anybody think since they are probably ex AA, well maintained, and excellent paper trail, these are the aircraft rumored for the Amazon Australia venture to be based in Brisbane?


Like I said on the other thread, no. There's a lot of assumptions in yourvline of reasoning up there.

SF is more likely.
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B350pilot
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Sat Sep 19, 2020 8:14 pm

on a side note, I just saw a full size, UPS style (almost a carbon copy), dark blue Amazon delivery truck in my middle class suburb. I asked the uniformed driver "when are you going to start outbound shipping, aka drop a package at FedEx Office or UPS Store" and he just smiled at me.

the world is changing...
 
jbs2886
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Sat Sep 19, 2020 9:21 pm

B350pilot wrote:
on a side note, I just saw a full size, UPS style (almost a carbon copy), dark blue Amazon delivery truck in my middle class suburb. I asked the uniformed driver "when are you going to start outbound shipping, aka drop a package at FedEx Office or UPS Store" and he just smiled at me.

the world is changing...


A driver wouldn’t know anything other than rumor, certainly not confidential strategy. Heck, it’s super compartmentalized even in corporate.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Sat Sep 19, 2020 11:24 pm

I think the point was that people have hopes and dreams that look a lot less crazy than they might have 3 years ago.

Personally, I think Amazon would be nuts to borrow the trouble of picking up things from the general public, or interfacing with the general public as shippers. It's a PITA, and all of a sudden you go from knowing exactly what's in that box (because your DC packed it) to having no freaking idea what's in it. To me, there's a lot of lower-hanging fruit to pick before Amazon should ever want to get involved with the general public as shippers. Yecch.
 
GoodRide
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Sun Sep 20, 2020 4:02 am

wjcandee wrote:
I think the point was that people have hopes and dreams that look a lot less crazy than they might have 3 years ago.

Personally, I think Amazon would be nuts to borrow the trouble of picking up things from the general public, or interfacing with the general public as shippers. It's a PITA, and all of a sudden you go from knowing exactly what's in that box (because your DC packed it) to having no freaking idea what's in it. To me, there's a lot of lower-hanging fruit to pick before Amazon should ever want to get involved with the general public as shippers. Yecch.


You could be right, the low hanging fruit is ripe for the taking. However, I do believe that as long as a portion of the public still relies on the USPS, UPS, and Fedex to ship everyday items to each other, you can bet Amazon is evaluating ways to leverage their logistics network to be able to capitalize on that. Personally, I envision a day when we are priming things to anyone everywhere with one day baseline shipping. They’ll use augmented reality built into the prime app to estimate dims of the package. An Amazon driver picks up your natively packaged item at your house (or they will box it themselves, after all they know exactly what size box will be the cheapest). Best of all, if your item isn’t time sensitive (overnight is coming) and it’s within a certain size, it’s included in your prime membership. Heck, Amazon may eventually offer to induct your package into their network only to pass it on to a delivery partner. Amazon Air is currently positioned as a cost saving measure, and the true beauty of their network is that they can scale to a point where they are shipping for next to nothing. I believe they are likely to go further and eventually subsidize the cost of their shipping network by opening up their lightning fast delivery network to third parties, effectively making it possible for their every day users to piggy back and ship things to each other for next to no additional cost.
 
USAirKid
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Sun Sep 20, 2020 5:04 am

GoodRide wrote:
wjcandee wrote:
I think the point was that people have hopes and dreams that look a lot less crazy than they might have 3 years ago.

Personally, I think Amazon would be nuts to borrow the trouble of picking up things from the general public, or interfacing with the general public as shippers. It's a PITA, and all of a sudden you go from knowing exactly what's in that box (because your DC packed it) to having no freaking idea what's in it. To me, there's a lot of lower-hanging fruit to pick before Amazon should ever want to get involved with the general public as shippers. Yecch.


You could be right, the low hanging fruit is ripe for the taking. However, I do believe that as long as a portion of the public still relies on the USPS, UPS, and Fedex to ship everyday items to each other, you can bet Amazon is evaluating ways to leverage their logistics network to be able to capitalize on that. Personally, I envision a day when we are priming things to anyone everywhere with one day baseline shipping. They’ll use augmented reality built into the prime app to estimate dims of the package. An Amazon driver picks up your natively packaged item at your house (or they will box it themselves, after all they know exactly what size box will be the cheapest). Best of all, if your item isn’t time sensitive (overnight is coming) and it’s within a certain size, it’s included in your prime membership. Heck, Amazon may eventually offer to induct your package into their network only to pass it on to a delivery partner. Amazon Air is currently positioned as a cost saving measure, and the true beauty of their network is that they can scale to a point where they are shipping for next to nothing. I believe they are likely to go further and eventually subsidize the cost of their shipping network by opening up their lightning fast delivery network to third parties, effectively making it possible for their every day users to piggy back and ship things to each other for next to no additional cost.


Wow. I want what you're smoking.

There are so many fanciful things flying around here, that I'll just take on a few of them:
  • Amazon or any other carrier wouldn't want to deal with having to pick up an unpackaged item from any location then box it. Either you have to:
    a. Box it in the truck, which'll take space carrying boxes and shipping materials that might not be used and end up taking up space for packages that pay the bills daily.
    b. Carry it unboxed in the truck to a depot, in which case you have the liability of carrying it unboxed.
    You’ll note that UPS, FedEx, and USPS won’t take unpackaged shipments at their many of their shipping depots. USPS won't take them under any circumstances. UPS Stores and FedEx Office locations are specialized to do this and packaging items for shipping is but a part of those location's business.
  • The idea that Amazon would offer one day shipping between any two points misses how Amazon is building their network. It does have some hub characteristics like the CVG and ILN operations, but in many ways it bypasses hubs, which makes it difficult to get any package between any two random points.
    In many ways the air portion of their network represents both a success and a failure. Its a success because they get to choose which packages they fly on their planes and leave the rest to UPS. Its a failure because Amazon ideally wants to have the item that you order in a facility that is within a few hours drive of the destination. (Yes, sometimes there are oddballs like my subscribe and save shipment that is coming to me in Seattle, overnight from San Francisco, but I’m almost sure that was done to more efficently utilize air freight capacity between SFO and SEA and/or efficiently utilizing fufillment center capacity.)
  • The idea that any one package has a marginal cost of $0. I’m not an accountant, but I play one at times, and while yes at some times a package can have a minimal marginal cost, I doubt that marginal cost is $0, nor do you want to subject yourself to abuse or customer unfriendly limits.
  • I wouldn’t want to deal with all the different packaging and labeling differences. Amazon knows how they package their packages and have developed processes around that, once you start dealing with everything that the public throws at you, you’ll have to add employees along the way to deal with the problems. UPS, USPS, and FedEx have employees whose main role includes decoding package labels and relabeling them. Amazon by its nature doesn’t need to have this.

Amazon thinks big, but they also think systematically, onesies and twosies don’t interest them. There was a reason they killed Amazon Auctions.
 
GoodRide
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Sun Sep 20, 2020 5:40 am

USAirKid wrote:
GoodRide wrote:
wjcandee wrote:
I think the point was that people have hopes and dreams that look a lot less crazy than they might have 3 years ago.

Personally, I think Amazon would be nuts to borrow the trouble of picking up things from the general public, or interfacing with the general public as shippers. It's a PITA, and all of a sudden you go from knowing exactly what's in that box (because your DC packed it) to having no freaking idea what's in it. To me, there's a lot of lower-hanging fruit to pick before Amazon should ever want to get involved with the general public as shippers. Yecch.


You could be right, the low hanging fruit is ripe for the taking. However, I do believe that as long as a portion of the public still relies on the USPS, UPS, and Fedex to ship everyday items to each other, you can bet Amazon is evaluating ways to leverage their logistics network to be able to capitalize on that. Personally, I envision a day when we are priming things to anyone everywhere with one day baseline shipping. They’ll use augmented reality built into the prime app to estimate dims of the package. An Amazon driver picks up your natively packaged item at your house (or they will box it themselves, after all they know exactly what size box will be the cheapest). Best of all, if your item isn’t time sensitive (overnight is coming) and it’s within a certain size, it’s included in your prime membership. Heck, Amazon may eventually offer to induct your package into their network only to pass it on to a delivery partner. Amazon Air is currently positioned as a cost saving measure, and the true beauty of their network is that they can scale to a point where they are shipping for next to nothing. I believe they are likely to go further and eventually subsidize the cost of their shipping network by opening up their lightning fast delivery network to third parties, effectively making it possible for their every day users to piggy back and ship things to each other for next to no additional cost.


Wow. I want what you're smoking.

There are so many fanciful things flying around here, that I'll just take on a few of them:
  • Amazon or any other carrier wouldn't want to deal with having to pick up an unpackaged item from any location then box it. Either you have to:
    a. Box it in the truck, which'll take space carrying boxes and shipping materials that might not be used and end up taking up space for packages that pay the bills daily.
    b. Carry it unboxed in the truck to a depot, in which case you have the liability of carrying it unboxed.
    You’ll note that UPS, FedEx, and USPS won’t take unpackaged shipments at their shipping locations. USPS won’t. UPS and FedEx have specialized locations that do this. (UPS Stores and FedEx Office)
  • The idea that Amazon would offer one day shipping between any two points misses how Amazon is building their network. It does have some hub characteristics like the CVG and ILN operations, but in many ways it bypasses hubs, which makes it difficult to get any package between poitns A and B.

    In many ways the air portion of their network represents both a success and a failure. Its a success because they get to choose which packages they fly on their planes and leave the rest to UPS. Its a failure because Amazon ideally wants to have the item that you order in a facility that is within a few hours drive of the destination. (Yes, sometimes there are oddballs like my subscribe and save shipment that is coming to me in Seattle, overnight from San Francisco, but I’m almost sure that was done to more efficently utilize air freight capacity between SFO and SEA as well as efficentily utilizing fufillment center pick capacity.
  • The idea that any one package has a marginal cost of $0. I’m not an accountant, but I play one at times, and while yes at some times a package can have a minimal marginal cost, I doubt that marginal cost is $0.
  • I wouldn’t want to deal with all the different packaging qualities. Amazon knows how they package their packages and have developed processes around that, once you start dealing with everything that the public throws at you, you’ll have to add employees along the way to deal with the problems. UPS, USPS, and FedEx have employees whose main role includes decoding package labels and relabeling them. Amazon by its nature doesn’t need to have this.

Amazon thinks big, but they also think systematically, onesies and twosies don’t interest them. There was a reason they killed Amazon Auctions.


Perhaps I’m just ignorant, I just don’t find any of my thoughts too fanciful.

Packaging is an evolving concept. Eventually many products may be shipped in their original packages and not require an additional box. Maybe house pickup is ludicrous, but specialized induction facilities aren’t out of the question. Sure the hub network is small now, but it’s growing, and CVG is being built!

I never said the cost is zero. I said that with Amazon’s scale and volume they can get close.

I appreciate your comments regarding success and failure. I think that’s spot on.
 
jetblueguy22
Posts: 3498
Joined: Thu Nov 29, 2007 12:26 am

Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Sun Sep 20, 2020 12:12 pm

GoodRide wrote:
USAirKid wrote:
GoodRide wrote:

You could be right, the low hanging fruit is ripe for the taking. However, I do believe that as long as a portion of the public still relies on the USPS, UPS, and Fedex to ship everyday items to each other, you can bet Amazon is evaluating ways to leverage their logistics network to be able to capitalize on that. Personally, I envision a day when we are priming things to anyone everywhere with one day baseline shipping. They’ll use augmented reality built into the prime app to estimate dims of the package. An Amazon driver picks up your natively packaged item at your house (or they will box it themselves, after all they know exactly what size box will be the cheapest). Best of all, if your item isn’t time sensitive (overnight is coming) and it’s within a certain size, it’s included in your prime membership. Heck, Amazon may eventually offer to induct your package into their network only to pass it on to a delivery partner. Amazon Air is currently positioned as a cost saving measure, and the true beauty of their network is that they can scale to a point where they are shipping for next to nothing. I believe they are likely to go further and eventually subsidize the cost of their shipping network by opening up their lightning fast delivery network to third parties, effectively making it possible for their every day users to piggy back and ship things to each other for next to no additional cost.


Wow. I want what you're smoking.

There are so many fanciful things flying around here, that I'll just take on a few of them:
  • Amazon or any other carrier wouldn't want to deal with having to pick up an unpackaged item from any location then box it. Either you have to:
    a. Box it in the truck, which'll take space carrying boxes and shipping materials that might not be used and end up taking up space for packages that pay the bills daily.
    b. Carry it unboxed in the truck to a depot, in which case you have the liability of carrying it unboxed.
    You’ll note that UPS, FedEx, and USPS won’t take unpackaged shipments at their shipping locations. USPS won’t. UPS and FedEx have specialized locations that do this. (UPS Stores and FedEx Office)
  • The idea that Amazon would offer one day shipping between any two points misses how Amazon is building their network. It does have some hub characteristics like the CVG and ILN operations, but in many ways it bypasses hubs, which makes it difficult to get any package between poitns A and B.

    In many ways the air portion of their network represents both a success and a failure. Its a success because they get to choose which packages they fly on their planes and leave the rest to UPS. Its a failure because Amazon ideally wants to have the item that you order in a facility that is within a few hours drive of the destination. (Yes, sometimes there are oddballs like my subscribe and save shipment that is coming to me in Seattle, overnight from San Francisco, but I’m almost sure that was done to more efficently utilize air freight capacity between SFO and SEA as well as efficentily utilizing fufillment center pick capacity.
  • The idea that any one package has a marginal cost of $0. I’m not an accountant, but I play one at times, and while yes at some times a package can have a minimal marginal cost, I doubt that marginal cost is $0.
  • I wouldn’t want to deal with all the different packaging qualities. Amazon knows how they package their packages and have developed processes around that, once you start dealing with everything that the public throws at you, you’ll have to add employees along the way to deal with the problems. UPS, USPS, and FedEx have employees whose main role includes decoding package labels and relabeling them. Amazon by its nature doesn’t need to have this.

Amazon thinks big, but they also think systematically, onesies and twosies don’t interest them. There was a reason they killed Amazon Auctions.


Perhaps I’m just ignorant, I just don’t find any of my thoughts too fanciful.

Packaging is an evolving concept. Eventually many products may be shipped in their original packages and not require an additional box. Maybe house pickup is ludicrous, but specialized induction facilities aren’t out of the question. Sure the hub network is small now, but it’s growing, and CVG is being built!

I never said the cost is zero. I said that with Amazon’s scale and volume they can get close.

I appreciate your comments regarding success and failure. I think that’s spot on.

Here’s the thing though with the package pickup at a residence. Anything residential is expensive. You don’t have the stop density that you have with businesses. Amazon doesn’t just get a good rate at UPS because they ship a lot of volume, it’s because that volume is essentially filler to supplement the higher revenue per piece packages that are on the truck. Essentially instead of doing 8 residential deliveries in a geographic area a driver can do 25 now, making the return on that pharmaceutical package that much better.

Not to mention you lose control when you start bringing outside shippers into your network. The beauty of AMZL right now is Amazon can literally “turn off” shipments destined to a building when they reach a certain threshold. All the volume is their own.

When you introduce outside shippers you can be at their mercy. Think of a college town during move in week. Amazon can say alright we have the capacity for x amount of packages. The rest we’ll send to UPS/USPS. It’s a relief valve. But when you are taking responsibility for that volume you lose that. Now instead of having x amount of packages you know you can deliver, you have y packages that you may not be able to deliver.

Remember, part of Amazon’s success is delivering as promised. Taking in outside shippers puts that in jeopardy, and really it’s not needed now. UPS/USPS are still delivering a ton of Amazon pieces. It doesn’t make sense to take in additional volume when you can’t even deliver all of your own.

As for the driver grinning. They are outside contractors, they aren’t in the know.
Look at sweatpants guy. This is a 90 million dollar aircraft, not a Tallahassee strip club
 
enplaned
Posts: 156
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2016 9:49 pm

Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Sun Sep 20, 2020 3:27 pm

wjcandee wrote:
Dayton Daily News, February 1, 2017: "Retail giant Amazon chose the Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport for its next air cargo hub over the Wilmington Air Park in Clinton County, Ohio officials said. CVG will lease 900 acres to Amazon, where the online retailer will make a $1.49 billion investment and create 2,700 new jobs, according to airport spokeswoman Mindy Kershner."

https://www.daytondailynews.com/news/am ... als%20said.


Exactly. Point being that from at least Feb 2017, we know that Amazon was contemplating truly massive things for Amazon Air. That's not the same thing as committed to massive things, but it's a confirmation that, from the beginning, Amazon had in mind that Amazon Air could be gigantic.
 
GoodRide
Posts: 39
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2018 2:15 pm

Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Sun Sep 20, 2020 3:29 pm

jetblueguy22 wrote:
GoodRide wrote:
USAirKid wrote:

Wow. I want what you're smoking.

There are so many fanciful things flying around here, that I'll just take on a few of them:
  • Amazon or any other carrier wouldn't want to deal with having to pick up an unpackaged item from any location then box it. Either you have to:
    a. Box it in the truck, which'll take space carrying boxes and shipping materials that might not be used and end up taking up space for packages that pay the bills daily.
    b. Carry it unboxed in the truck to a depot, in which case you have the liability of carrying it unboxed.
    You’ll note that UPS, FedEx, and USPS won’t take unpackaged shipments at their shipping locations. USPS won’t. UPS and FedEx have specialized locations that do this. (UPS Stores and FedEx Office)
  • The idea that Amazon would offer one day shipping between any two points misses how Amazon is building their network. It does have some hub characteristics like the CVG and ILN operations, but in many ways it bypasses hubs, which makes it difficult to get any package between poitns A and B.

    In many ways the air portion of their network represents both a success and a failure. Its a success because they get to choose which packages they fly on their planes and leave the rest to UPS. Its a failure because Amazon ideally wants to have the item that you order in a facility that is within a few hours drive of the destination. (Yes, sometimes there are oddballs like my subscribe and save shipment that is coming to me in Seattle, overnight from San Francisco, but I’m almost sure that was done to more efficently utilize air freight capacity between SFO and SEA as well as efficentily utilizing fufillment center pick capacity.
  • The idea that any one package has a marginal cost of $0. I’m not an accountant, but I play one at times, and while yes at some times a package can have a minimal marginal cost, I doubt that marginal cost is $0.
  • I wouldn’t want to deal with all the different packaging qualities. Amazon knows how they package their packages and have developed processes around that, once you start dealing with everything that the public throws at you, you’ll have to add employees along the way to deal with the problems. UPS, USPS, and FedEx have employees whose main role includes decoding package labels and relabeling them. Amazon by its nature doesn’t need to have this.

Amazon thinks big, but they also think systematically, onesies and twosies don’t interest them. There was a reason they killed Amazon Auctions.


Perhaps I’m just ignorant, I just don’t find any of my thoughts too fanciful.

Packaging is an evolving concept. Eventually many products may be shipped in their original packages and not require an additional box. Maybe house pickup is ludicrous, but specialized induction facilities aren’t out of the question. Sure the hub network is small now, but it’s growing, and CVG is being built!

I never said the cost is zero. I said that with Amazon’s scale and volume they can get close.

I appreciate your comments regarding success and failure. I think that’s spot on.

Here’s the thing though with the package pickup at a residence. Anything residential is expensive. You don’t have the stop density that you have with businesses. Amazon doesn’t just get a good rate at UPS because they ship a lot of volume, it’s because that volume is essentially filler to supplement the higher revenue per piece packages that are on the truck. Essentially instead of doing 8 residential deliveries in a geographic area a driver can do 25 now, making the return on that pharmaceutical package that much better.

Not to mention you lose control when you start bringing outside shippers into your network. The beauty of AMZL right now is Amazon can literally “turn off” shipments destined to a building when they reach a certain threshold. All the volume is their own.

When you introduce outside shippers you can be at their mercy. Think of a college town during move in week. Amazon can say alright we have the capacity for x amount of packages. The rest we’ll send to UPS/USPS. It’s a relief valve. But when you are taking responsibility for that volume you lose that. Now instead of having x amount of packages you know you can deliver, you have y packages that you may not be able to deliver.

Remember, part of Amazon’s success is delivering as promised. Taking in outside shippers puts that in jeopardy, and really it’s not needed now. UPS/USPS are still delivering a ton of Amazon pieces. It doesn’t make sense to take in additional volume when you can’t even deliver all of your own.

As for the driver grinning. They are outside contractors, they aren’t in the know.


Good points thanks to both of you for the insight, clearly I don’t have as much insight as either of you. Perhaps I’m just way off base with my prognostications. I guess time will tell.
 
USAirKid
Posts: 666
Joined: Mon Jun 13, 2016 5:42 am

Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Mon Sep 21, 2020 2:17 am

GoodRide wrote:

Packaging is an evolving concept. Eventually many products may be shipped in their original packages and not require an additional box. Maybe house pickup is ludicrous, but specialized induction facilities aren’t out of the question. Sure the hub network is small now, but it’s growing, and CVG is being built!

I never said the cost is zero. I said that with Amazon’s scale and volume they can get close.

I appreciate your comments regarding success and failure. I think that’s spot on.


Packaging is kinda interesting. Yes in some ways it has evolved.. on the inside. Almost all shipments are packed in either a box, a padded envelope, or even just an envelope. We've seen Amazon push/embrace some packaging revolutions, like those wonderful air pillows that have replaced the fun bubble wrap and the evil packing peanuts.

A lot of the recent innovation is just Amazon riffing on the padded envelope, mostly because the older package types such as bubble lined paper mailers are non-recyclable. They working on replacing them with either the Blue and White Bubble-lined plastic bag or the new fangled Paper padded mailer. (Take look at Amazon Second Chance for all the types of packaging they have.) Also, I'ven't been able to find a link, but from what I understand items that come in the Blue & White bubble-lined plastic bags are actually automatically packed by machine.

Amazon has been working toward items that can ship in their existing boxes. That is/was part of the push for Frustration Free Packaging, but I'd also suggest that a vast majority of the items on Amazon still come in some version of the packaging you'd find it in at other stores, and one of the things I've seen with Frustration Free Packaging is if you order two items, they'll often put both of them together in a box. :-/

Theres also the newer packaging pushes, such as the Tide EcoBox, but if you watch the video on how the packaging was put together, you'll note the say "less secondary packaging" not no-secondary packaging, and that thing has to ship in plastic overwrap, probably because the perforated cut outs wouldn't necessarily survive the shipping process un popped out, plus there is that whole thing with P&G wanting to have the package properly branded, that doesn't always mesh well with the necessity of shipping labels and the fact that a box on someone's porch with the Tide logo is more likely to be stolen. (Liquid Tide is a high theft item.)

As for the low hanging fruit before Amazon opens up allowing anyone to drop a package into their system, I think we'll see Amazon offering their shipping services to select merchants. That might mean that Amazon processes the package through their network and lets USPS or UPS handle the last mile.

Even before that Amazon can and should integrate their newer subsidiaries into their logistics system. PillPack for instance seems to send everything UPS, either the main UPS (Ground/Overnight/2nd Day) or via Mail Innovations. I haven't scoped out the rest of their subsidiaries for where they are in the logistics system, but it wouldn't surprise me that the longer the company has been owned by Amazon they more they're integrated into the system. Zappos.com has none of their own distribution capacity, its all managed by Amazon's fulfillment centers. I've also seen the same thing with Createspace and Booksurge.

As for offering shipping to select merchants, the biggest problem there is finding merchants who ship enough for Amazon to want to work with them that would be interested in working with Amazon. All of the big names that came to mind (Target, Walmart, Kroger, Albertsons) have the frenemie problem. Sure Amazon might be able to give them a good rate, but do they want Amazon to know that much about their business? And does Amazon want to deal with the vagaries of other businesses? (Amazon restaurants went away, and PrimeNow in Seattle only has two non-Amazon businesses that they deliver for)

Amazon likes end to end control, and they've continued to extend their control both ways. Amazon started without their own warehouses, they had books drop shipped to their customers, then Amazon added a few own warehouses initially in Delaware and Seattle, but let UPS/FedEx/USPS/Airborne Express handle the shipping from them. They then spread out a bit more with fulfillment centers in Fernley, NV; Coffeyville, KS; McDonough, GA; Campbellsville, KY; and Lexington, KY. Which seemed formidable in 1997, but Amazon is now approaching 300 fulfillment centers, that is before counting sortation centers, etc. That growth was definitely planned in concert with the growing delivery system. At that same time we've seen them reach into logistics on the production side, reaching into brokering shipping from China to the USA.

Amazon does still seem to fit and follow the original name that Jeff Bezos wanted for the company: Relentless.com
 
enplaned
Posts: 156
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2016 9:49 pm

Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Mon Sep 21, 2020 11:49 am

USAirKid wrote:
Packaging is kinda interesting. Yes in some ways it has evolved.. on the inside. Almost all shipments are packed in either a box, a padded envelope, or even just an envelope. We've seen Amazon push/embrace some packaging revolutions, like those wonderful air pillows that have replaced the fun bubble wrap and the evil packing peanuts.

A lot of the recent innovation is just Amazon riffing on the padded envelope, mostly because the older package types such as bubble lined paper mailers are non-recyclable. They working on replacing them with either the Blue and White Bubble-lined plastic bag or the new fangled Paper padded mailer. (Take look at Amazon Second Chance for all the types of packaging they have.) Also, I'ven't been able to find a link, but from what I understand items that come in the Blue & White bubble-lined plastic bags are actually automatically packed by machine.

Amazon has been working toward items that can ship in their existing boxes. That is/was part of the push for Frustration Free Packaging, but I'd also suggest that a vast majority of the items on Amazon still come in some version of the packaging you'd find it in at other stores, and one of the things I've seen with Frustration Free Packaging is if you order two items, they'll often put both of them together in a box. :-/



SIOC - Ship In Own Container.

I am surprised that Amazon hasn't done a better job of SIOC with respect to its own branded stuff. You'd think that a general requirement for many of its own brands would be that they be packaged in something that requires no further box or envelope to accept a label at SLAM (the event where a box gets a label) and off to the races. The relevance for Amazon Air, by the way, is that if you could, for instance, reduce the volume of each package by e.g. 10% you can fit approximately that many more packages on an aircraft or truck, and since Amazon Air is volumetrically-limited, that's basically 10% more packages you can carry (on the air legs) for free.

You'd have thought that, by now, there would be standard e-commerce packages (boxes, etc) that would come with bar codes that would specify everything automated sorting/packaging/stacking would need to know - size, strength, contents, etc. That doesn't seem to have yet happened.
 
JayinKitsap
Posts: 2258
Joined: Sat Nov 26, 2005 9:55 am

Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Mon Sep 21, 2020 3:53 pm

Costco requires their vendors to have special packaging with their item numbers etc. Amazon is large enough to require that. Interestingly they are doing that with Kitty Litter, it ships in its standard cardboard box.

Now could Amazon pick back up the knocked down boxes. Ultimate recycling.
 
enplaned
Posts: 156
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2016 9:49 pm

Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Tue Sep 22, 2020 12:23 am

JayinKitsap wrote:
Costco requires their vendors to have special packaging with their item numbers etc. Amazon is large enough to require that. Interestingly they are doing that with Kitty Litter, it ships in its standard cardboard box.

Now could Amazon pick back up the knocked down boxes. Ultimate recycling.


I'm thinking of an industry-wide standard that all shippers could use, whether e-commerce or not.
 
USAirKid
Posts: 666
Joined: Mon Jun 13, 2016 5:42 am

Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Tue Sep 22, 2020 12:26 am

enplaned wrote:
You'd have thought that, by now, there would be standard e-commerce packages (boxes, etc) that would come with bar codes that would specify everything automated sorting/packaging/stacking would need to know - size, strength, contents, etc. That doesn't seem to have yet happened.


I'd almost expect that Amazon does this when they fire up a new ASIN and they store it in their databases. Its not really something that needs to be on the side of each individual package since you only need it once for a given SKU, there isn't any point it taking up the space on package. Plus this way it stays Amazon proprietary as to which data they consider important for shipping an item.
 
User avatar
1337Delta764
Topic Author
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Tue Sep 22, 2020 1:20 am

Speaking of the mailers, I noticed that the plastic padded mailers and the new recyclable paper mailers only seem to be used at the Amazon Robotics Sortable warehouses. Legacy Sortable warehouses continue to use the old yellow paper/plastic bubble mailers. This is why newer FCs such as TUS2 and LGB3 will use either the plastic mailers or the recyclable mailers, but older FCs such as PHX6 and ONT2 continue to use the old yellow paper/plastic bubble mailers.
 
enplaned
Posts: 156
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2016 9:49 pm

Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Tue Sep 22, 2020 12:01 pm

USAirKid wrote:
enplaned wrote:
You'd have thought that, by now, there would be standard e-commerce packages (boxes, etc) that would come with bar codes that would specify everything automated sorting/packaging/stacking would need to know - size, strength, contents, etc. That doesn't seem to have yet happened.


I'd almost expect that Amazon does this when they fire up a new ASIN and they store it in their databases. Its not really something that needs to be on the side of each individual package since you only need it once for a given SKU, there isn't any point it taking up the space on package. Plus this way it stays Amazon proprietary as to which data they consider important for shipping an item.


Amazon does do that - when you're at a packing station in an Amazon FC, the database tells you what box to use, it's not up to the packer.

But a universal code as to the size, strength, etc of the package could potentially help e.g. UPS in the many cases where Amazon still sends it that way.
 
Clancy223
Posts: 19
Joined: Tue May 12, 2020 9:16 pm

Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Tue Sep 22, 2020 9:04 pm

Southern 737 N5233A SOO3600 IAH-RFD diverted to SHV today for airspeed and altitude disagree. Departing tomorrow late morning to RFD.
 
frmrCapCadet
Posts: 4346
Joined: Thu May 29, 2008 8:24 pm

Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Tue Sep 22, 2020 10:34 pm

Kitsap Sun reports today that the Amazon plant will be opening later this month. There will be 60 plant workers and hundreds of drivers. This must mean that Amazon will be doing a lot of last mile delivering. Probably not good news for the USPS.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
wjcandee
Posts: 9071
Joined: Mon Jun 05, 2000 12:50 am

Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Tue Sep 22, 2020 11:55 pm

Clancy223 wrote:
Southern 737 N5233A SOO3600 IAH-RFD diverted to SHV today for airspeed and altitude disagree. Departing tomorrow late morning to RFD.


That's the most recent 738 to come online for Southern. Hope they don't take it to Western Global's maintenance there in SHV to be fixed; it won't be out until next year. (Just being snarky, I know they won't.)
 
wjcandee
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Joined: Mon Jun 05, 2000 12:50 am

Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Tue Sep 22, 2020 11:56 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
Kitsap Sun reports today that the Amazon plant will be opening later this month. There will be 60 plant workers and hundreds of drivers. This must mean that Amazon will be doing a lot of last mile delivering. Probably not good news for the USPS.


It's a growing pie, so maybe not so bad...
 
JayinKitsap
Posts: 2258
Joined: Sat Nov 26, 2005 9:55 am

Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Wed Sep 23, 2020 5:43 am

wjcandee wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
Kitsap Sun reports today that the Amazon plant will be opening later this month. There will be 60 plant workers and hundreds of drivers. This must mean that Amazon will be doing a lot of last mile delivering. Probably not good news for the USPS.


It's a growing pie, so maybe not so bad...


Kitsap is a mix of town, suburb, and rural. The rural is mostly USPS contract carriers, suburbs and town are regular USPS. I see trucks still out until 8, sometimes later. I suspect Amazon will let the rural be handled by USPS. Does Prime go onto Naval Bases, or is that just USPS?
 
jetblueguy22
Posts: 3498
Joined: Thu Nov 29, 2007 12:26 am

Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Wed Sep 23, 2020 12:42 pm

JayinKitsap wrote:
wjcandee wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
Kitsap Sun reports today that the Amazon plant will be opening later this month. There will be 60 plant workers and hundreds of drivers. This must mean that Amazon will be doing a lot of last mile delivering. Probably not good news for the USPS.


It's a growing pie, so maybe not so bad...


Kitsap is a mix of town, suburb, and rural. The rural is mostly USPS contract carriers, suburbs and town are regular USPS. I see trucks still out until 8, sometimes later. I suspect Amazon will let the rural be handled by USPS. Does Prime go onto Naval Bases, or is that just USPS?

AMZL will deliver rural, it is already done in some places. It’s just usually connected to a metro area (like the setup you already described). I am not familiar with military base deliveries, but I would think they would be done. There is probably just some extra steps that need to be taken. I know at Brown you needed to have a base pass, which only a handful had. But it wasn’t that difficult to get.
Look at sweatpants guy. This is a 90 million dollar aircraft, not a Tallahassee strip club
 
MO11
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Wed Sep 23, 2020 1:59 pm

Paperwork transferred on C-FOGT yesterday.
 
wjcandee
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Joined: Mon Jun 05, 2000 12:50 am

Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Wed Sep 23, 2020 6:05 pm

And N393AN will be making its way today (9/23/20) to SNN, and then TLV for conversion. That will be the 7th aircraft from CAM at TLV right now, most of which are likely going to be used to provide the 11 new conversions that Amazon will be taking from CAM in 2021. (Of the 7, N544LA, to be N321CM, is likely going somewhere else. It's a FADEC-engined ship.)

In addition to those 7, Amazon has two Amazon-owned 767-300s at TLV as well, which arrived in the last two weeks. Likely we will see another of Amazon's current-four head from LCQ to conversion soon, Will be interesting to see if it goes to TLV, or whether, like DHL, the high volume at IAI means it will go to the more-expensive-but-more-available BCF conversion houses at TPE (EGAT) or QPG (ST Aero).
 
MO11
Posts: 1495
Joined: Sun Jan 08, 2017 5:07 pm

Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Wed Sep 23, 2020 9:23 pm

I understand Aloha is expecting another airplane. It is currently chartering a 757 to cover a line.
 
wjcandee
Posts: 9071
Joined: Mon Jun 05, 2000 12:50 am

Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Wed Sep 23, 2020 9:48 pm

MO11 wrote:
I understand Aloha is expecting another airplane. It is currently chartering a 757 to cover a line.


Interesting. They haven't been able yet to staff N399CM, which they dry-leased in anticipation of getting ETOPS and operating themselves. But ATI continues to fly it for them, years after they expected to be flying it themselves. Aloha, of course, is really NAC, which is operating with its own crews its other two CAM-leased 767-300s out of Miami (the NAC-liveried one and the StratAir-liveried one).

Interesting that they didn't charter that 757 from ATI, given that 557CM, 620DL and 531UA are all parked. I know that ATSG considers them to be retired, but why look a gift horse in the mouth? (The fourth one, 605DL, was reactivated by DHL to operate for them on a short-term basis CVG-ELP.)
 
wjcandee
Posts: 9071
Joined: Mon Jun 05, 2000 12:50 am

Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Wed Sep 23, 2020 9:57 pm

So we now know where N563AZ is going to be converted: MMEX. It's leaving for there tonight (9/24/20)

So, until now, MexicanaMRO, because of their hangar size, has only being doing one BDSF conversion at a time. DHL has had N348AN in there since July 1, so figuring about 4 months for conversion at MEX, it should be done sometime in November, or about 5 weeks away minimum on average. MexicanaMRO did get the last DHL/Kalitta aircraft out of there about 10 days shy of 4 months, but even that would then be late October. So it's interesting that 563AZ is off for MEX tonight. MexicanaMRO has a huge amount of ramp space, so it seems possible that they could figure out how to do more than one if the demand was there, and I guess it is. I had assumed that the next DHL conversion would be following the current one, given that DHL in July ordered 3-4 BDSF conversions from IAI, and 4 BCF conversions from Boeing, specifically-stating that the BDSFs would be converted in MEX. So it would appear, at least, that IAI is stepping up the volume at MexicanaMRO in response to demand. Good for them.
 
gdavis003
Posts: 232
Joined: Wed Dec 18, 2019 4:59 am

Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Wed Sep 23, 2020 10:58 pm

wjcandee wrote:
So we now know where N563AZ is going to be converted: MMEX. It's leaving for there tonight (9/24/20)

So, until now, MexicanaMRO, because of their hangar size, has only being doing one BDSF conversion at a time. DHL has had N348AN in there since July 1, so figuring about 4 months for conversion at MEX, it should be done sometime in November, or about 5 weeks away minimum on average. MexicanaMRO did get the last DHL/Kalitta aircraft out of there about 10 days shy of 4 months, but even that would then be late October. So it's interesting that 563AZ is off for MEX tonight. MexicanaMRO has a huge amount of ramp space, so it seems possible that they could figure out how to do more than one if the demand was there, and I guess it is. I had assumed that the next DHL conversion would be following the current one, given that DHL in July ordered 3-4 BDSF conversions from IAI, and 4 BCF conversions from Boeing, specifically-stating that the BDSFs would be converted in MEX. So it would appear, at least, that IAI is stepping up the volume at MexicanaMRO in response to demand. Good for them.


Out of curiosity, where is the crew from that will operate the KLCQ-MMEX flight tonight? Would it be a CAM crew? Do they even have flight crews?
 
wjcandee
Posts: 9071
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Wed Sep 23, 2020 11:34 pm

CAM uses contract pilots to ferry its aircraft, usually ones that ATSG has a relationship with. The guy that picked up one of the UPS ships from paint at Landlocked Aviation, for example, was wearing an ATI lanyard and credentials (and a pretty-cool beard/mustache).

The Amazon-owned aircraft, like the one going to MEX tonight, are not leased from CAM, so the identity of the ferry crew is less-clear to me. They fly as a private aircraft under their tail number, like the CAM aircraft do, whereas when a company like JetTest does the ferry, they often use a JetTest callsign. The routing through PHL on the route LCQ-PHL-TLV seems pretty-divorced from the whole ATSG infrastructure, so I'm assuming that they're not involving ATSG really in any way in the process, but I could of course be totally-wrong. I noted in a post somewhere that JetTest in fact has a division with an office about 15 minutes from PHL, which is probably coincidence, but there ya go. There's a reason that the Amazon aircraft are using PHL as a midpoint between LCQ and TLV, and while it's not a crazy place to pause, it wouldn't be the first location that would occur to me. It likely has something to do with the ferry company and its crews.

That's about all I've got on the subject, and would be very pleased to be enlightened.
 
wjcandee
Posts: 9071
Joined: Mon Jun 05, 2000 12:50 am

Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Thu Sep 24, 2020 12:15 am

MO11 wrote:
I understand Aloha is expecting another airplane. It is currently chartering a 757 to cover a line.


You always send me in interesting research directions! What's interesting about Aloha right now is that they realy just have the 4 737s that they operate, but only one of the four (303KH) is actually operating in Hawaii!

One is down for maintenance (361NC), while 301KH is doing this weird GSO-TUL-ONT sort-of rotation, and 302KH is flying in Alaska. So it stands to reason that they would be looking for an aircraft of that size, rather than a larger one. What route is the 757 doing? I can probably find it, but just curious if you knew.

I know that before Amazon started its own HNL flights, the Aloha Cargo 767 that ATI is operating for Aloha was some huge percentage filled with Amazon packages, and I assume that it still carries a lot. What I don't know is whether any of that ends up getting on Aloha's smaller planes for distribution within the Islands.
 
GoodRide
Posts: 39
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2018 2:15 pm

Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Thu Sep 24, 2020 2:16 am

Those 3 ATI 757s mentioned above are non-ETOPs, FWIW.
Last edited by GoodRide on Thu Sep 24, 2020 2:45 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
MO11
Posts: 1495
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Thu Sep 24, 2020 2:19 am

MGE7200/7201 HNL-SEA-LAX-HNL

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