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enplaned
Posts: 107
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Wed Aug 12, 2020 1:19 am

wjcandee wrote:
sunking737 wrote:
On the WGN matter the owners are selling 49%?? to the employees for $400 Million?? Maybe now they will have money to fixed their broken birds...Right??


The whole thing is weird. They don't want to borrow money and be beholden to lenders or investors, because they want to do it the way they want to do it. Maybe they think this is a way to get a needed cash infusion without having to answer to anybody. I doubt they would change their ways at all.


This is pretty straightforward, it seems to me. The selling shareholder is selling 49% of the company to the ESOP for $400mm. That shareholder is getting a heck of a deal and not giving up control (I assume this person owns 100% right now). There are apparently tax benefits from the fact that an ESOP will be created, so Uncle Sam is making a contribution to this.

$400mm for 49% puts a valuation of $800mm on the company. Anyone see WG as worth that much? Seems pretty generous to me. Seems like a heck of a payday for the selling shareholder.

Perhaps my facts are wrong. But that's what it appears like on casual inspection.

We'll see whether the bond market is OK with this.
 
autopiloton
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Wed Aug 12, 2020 1:39 am

N313AZ has been having Leading Edge slat issues. My guess is it would have something to do with that. Maybe they had an issue on climb out and elected to return. Probably did a no flap landing..hence the fire department for hot brakes.

HPRamper wrote:
ATN3402 from SEA to ANC just turned around after about 20 minutes in flight and landed again, they momentarily closed the runway and the fire department met them immediately after landing. All seems ok, but after being cleared by fire they taxied back to the Amazon ramp facility. Tail N313AZ.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Wed Aug 12, 2020 2:44 am

[*]Enplaned: They're claiming that they're doing this to raise funds. So I guess that would mean issuing new shares to the ESOP and diluting the Neffs' ownership (it's Jim and Sunny Neff who own it). Otherwise, the Neffs are just cashing out at a pretty-elevated price, it seems.

I mean used 747-400Fs are trading for say $15mm each as a very-round number. So they have one, plus 2 conversions at say $12mm each. Is let's call it $40 million.

And 13 MD11s at -- what? -- $10 million each would be $130 million. So there's maybe $175 million in hard assets. Tooling, the SHV shop -- what else? The certificate?

But of course I don't have the financials, and this is all therefore informed-ish speculation.

To value as a going concern with a stream of profits isn't really viable, because their business is all over the place. It's ACMI. I don't know them to have any long-term contracts of any real note. They get military work, some ad hoc, maybe some DHL, but it's all the kind of thing that could be gone tomorrow.

This Covid thing could have been an amazing boon for them, and they seemed to have a solid plan for how to execute the Asia flights. Their approach was lean crews (2 man cockpit) with lots of stops, staging in ICN and maybe ANC. (SkyLease, in contrast, ran heavy crews to maximize aircraft in-air time. So Skylease would do LAX-China-ANC-LAX. WGN would do LAX-ANC-ICN-China-ICN-ANC-LAX, maybe eliminating a Westbound or an Eastbound stop.) The problem they are having is that the aircraft down time is hampering their reliability and the ability to take on more business. I guess the customers can't complain too much when you're basically the only game in town, but the reliability doesn't seem to be there. (In contrast, SkyLease, which I thought had a reputation as a rust-corner carrier, has seen very-good reliability at an insane level of utilization with its two 747-400Fs, one of which is unfortunately-for-them in a heavy check at SBD right now.)
 
HPRamper
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Wed Aug 12, 2020 9:19 am

autopiloton wrote:
N313AZ has been having Leading Edge slat issues. My guess is it would have something to do with that. Maybe they had an issue on climb out and elected to return. Probably did a no flap landing..hence the fire department for hot brakes.

HPRamper wrote:
ATN3402 from SEA to ANC just turned around after about 20 minutes in flight and landed again, they momentarily closed the runway and the fire department met them immediately after landing. All seems ok, but after being cleared by fire they taxied back to the Amazon ramp facility. Tail N313AZ.

I think you're onto something. I watched them land, and they "came in hot" as they say. Very fast.
 
BTVB6Flyer
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Wed Aug 12, 2020 3:34 pm

Looks like they added a CVG-LAL-SFO run;

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/ATN ... /KLAL/KSFO
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Wed Aug 12, 2020 4:48 pm

BTVB6Flyer wrote:
Looks like they added a CVG-LAL-SFO run;

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/ATN ... /KLAL/KSFO


Indeed, as of last week.

So, LAL now has:

SMF-LAL-ILN and

CVG-LAL-SFO

both on ATI.

I noticed that a Sun Country 737-800BCF, N7901A, flew from TPA to LAL on 8/4/20 and is still there, probably for training (like they did with a 767-300, which was there for a couple of weeks). So it stands to reason that LAL may see some 737-800s in its future.
 
enplaned
Posts: 107
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Wed Aug 12, 2020 6:44 pm

wjcandee wrote:
[*]Enplaned: They're claiming that they're doing this to raise funds. So I guess that would mean issuing new shares to the ESOP and diluting the Neffs' ownership (it's Jim and Sunny Neff who own it). Otherwise, the Neffs are just cashing out at a pretty-elevated price, it seems.


You might be right - I might have jumped to an overly cynical view (though, given the era we're living in, it's perhaps unsurprising that my view naturally went there). I'd love to see the offering doc if anyone finds it.
 
Delta28L
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Wed Aug 12, 2020 7:52 pm

wjcandee wrote:
BTVB6Flyer wrote:
Looks like they added a CVG-LAL-SFO run;

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/ATN ... /KLAL/KSFO


Indeed, as of last week.

So, LAL now has:

SMF-LAL-ILN and

CVG-LAL-SFO

both on ATI.

I noticed that a Sun Country 737-800BCF, N7901A, flew from TPA to LAL on 8/4/20 and is still there, probably for training (like they did with a 767-300, which was there for a couple of weeks). So it stands to reason that LAL may see some 737-800s in its future.


How many planes can park on the new ramp at LAL?
 
a2b7
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Wed Aug 12, 2020 9:21 pm

FloridaMark wrote:
sunking737 wrote:
Cargojet Canada is getting another 767-300F Any idea from who?? They do Prime don't they up nord there ya??


Cargojet has a former Air Canada B767...C-FCAE in Tel Aviv undergoing F conversion.

According to the 2020 Q2 MD&A, Cargojet will actually get another 767-300:
In July 2020 Cargojet executed a LOI finance lease to purchase an additional B767-300 aircraft converted to cargo specification under a lease term of seven years and a purchase option in favour of Cargojet to purchase the aircraft at the end of the lease term at a pre-determined price. This aircraft is expected to be delivered to Cargojet in October 2020.

Unfortunately I don't know where that 767-300 will come from.
Source: http://www.cargojet.com/financials/q220/MDA063020.pdf
 
MO11
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Wed Aug 12, 2020 9:27 pm

a2b7 wrote:
According to the 2020 Q2 MD&A, Cargojet will actually get another 767-300:
In July 2020 Cargojet executed a LOI finance lease to purchase an additional B767-300 aircraft converted to cargo specification under a lease term of seven years and a purchase option in favour of Cargojet to purchase the aircraft at the end of the lease term at a pre-determined price. This aircraft is expected to be delivered to Cargojet in October 2020.

Unfortunately I don't know where that 767-300 will come from.
Source: http://www.cargojet.com/financials/q220/MDA063020.pdf


Well, if we assume that delivery in October implies that conversion to cargo will be complete, then it's in the conversion process now. It's safe to assume that it's one of the CAM airplanes in TLV.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Wed Aug 12, 2020 9:33 pm

Delta28L wrote:
How many planes can park on the new ramp at LAL?


The concrete pad has space for 7 767s. It has solid marshaling lines for the 767s, and numbers on the pavement: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7. It also has markings and broken lines like "5A", which is presumably for smaller-wingspan aircraft. Someone can do the math about how many 737-800s could fit in an area in which 7 767s can fit, side by side. About half the paved site is for aircraft parking in front of the building that loads/unloads cans, and half is for local distribution vehicle parking next to what looks like a mini-PSC.

A good shot of the whole setup is here: https://www.gannett-cdn.com/-mm-/81dbda ... &auto=webp In the foreground is the mini-PSC and parking, and in the distance is the load/unload facility building and pad (what the newspaper, I think erroneously, calls a "7-plane hangar").
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Wed Aug 12, 2020 9:44 pm

MO11 wrote:
a2b7 wrote:
According to the 2020 Q2 MD&A, Cargojet will actually get another 767-300:
In July 2020 Cargojet executed a LOI finance lease to purchase an additional B767-300 aircraft converted to cargo specification under a lease term of seven years and a purchase option in favour of Cargojet to purchase the aircraft at the end of the lease term at a pre-determined price. This aircraft is expected to be delivered to Cargojet in October 2020.

Unfortunately I don't know where that 767-300 will come from.
Source: http://www.cargojet.com/financials/q220/MDA063020.pdf


Well, if we assume that delivery in October implies that conversion to cargo will be complete, then it's in the conversion process now. It's safe to assume that it's one of the CAM airplanes in TLV.


Even moreso, if it's going to be "delivered" in October, e.g. painted and through conformity, then it would have to be finished with conversion in September. It is possible that Cargojet has a tail at TLV (or TPE or QPG), but if the lease is from CAM, which doesn't often do lease/purchase leases, the only aircraft that has a hope of being out of conversion in September would be N394AN. I suppose if they really turn it on, N544LA could make it by then, but it isn't likely in the normal course of things, plus it's a LATAM tail, and those tails have been taking longer-than-average to get through checks and conversion. If "delivered" doesn't mean, "ready for service", then, yeah, N544LA is a possibility. Assuming, again, that Cargojet is leasing from CAM, or that it doesn't have an aircraft in conversion at IAI or EGAT or STAero that we don't know about. (Although you, MO11, probably would...)

If Yochai is around, he probably knows what's currently on the ramp there at TLV, and if there's anything other than N544LA, N394AN, N304CM, N392AN and N395AN
 
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sunking737
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Thu Aug 13, 2020 12:39 am

Boeing 767-300ER versus Boeing 737-800
54.90 m 180 ft 1 in length 39.50 m 129 ft 7 in
47.60 m 156 ft 2 in wingspan 35.80 m 117 ft 5 in
283.30 m2 3,049 ft2 wingarea 125.00 m2 1,345 ft2
15.80 m 51 ft 10 in height 12.50 m 41 ft
2 engines 2
282 kN 63,300 lbf thrust per engine 121 kN 27,300 lbf
564 kN 126,600 lbf total thrust 242 kN 54,600 lbf
186,680 kgs 412,000 lbs MTOW 79,000 kgs 174,000 lbs
11,300 km 6,102 nm range 5,425 km 2,930 nm
M0.8 cruise speed M0.785
218 passengers capacity 162 passengers

Info found here...https://www.aviatorjoe.net/go/compare/7 ... R/737-800/ If LAL has room for 7 767-300 I would say 10 to 14 737-800
"Don't believe it unless its parked on the ramp, or printed in the schedule...SUBJECT TO CHANGE"

I'm a SUNDUCK......Worked for RC & SY @ MSP
 
MO11
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Thu Aug 13, 2020 12:43 am

wjcandee wrote:
Even moreso, if it's going to be "delivered" in October, e.g. painted and through conformity, then it would have to be finished with conversion in September. It is possible that Cargojet has a tail at TLV (or TPE or QPG), but if the lease is from CAM, which doesn't often do lease/purchase leases, the only aircraft that has a hope of being out of conversion in September would be N394AN.


Actually all of the CAM-leased -300s (to CargoJet) are 6-year leases with a purchase option after three years. The Management Discussion indicates that it intends to exercise the purchase options (Nov20-Dec21).
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Thu Aug 13, 2020 2:36 am

MO11 wrote:
wjcandee wrote:
Even moreso, if it's going to be "delivered" in October, e.g. painted and through conformity, then it would have to be finished with conversion in September. It is possible that Cargojet has a tail at TLV (or TPE or QPG), but if the lease is from CAM, which doesn't often do lease/purchase leases, the only aircraft that has a hope of being out of conversion in September would be N394AN.


Actually all of the CAM-leased -300s (to CargoJet) are 6-year leases with a purchase option after three years. The Management Discussion indicates that it intends to exercise the purchase options (Nov20-Dec21).


Interesting. So they have a very-different deal with Cargojet than they do with most others. Thanks for the correction.

So, it's 4 763s and the 762 leased from CAM? You know, duh, I don't even know why I'm asking. I should just read the thing you cited to. like a normal person. Sorry.

Okay, so I read the footnotes to that table, and I have to say I'm completely-confused. To make sense of it, I will need to print out the info on their fleet and match tails to descriptions and dates to understand better. Basically, from what you're saying, it sounds like the CAM 'leases" to Cargojet are finance leases which are basically counted as purchases.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Thu Aug 13, 2020 3:15 am

sunking737 wrote:
Boeing 767-300ER versus Boeing 737-800

47.60 m 156 ft 2 in wingspan 35.80 m 117 ft 5 in

Info found here...https://www.aviatorjoe.net/go/compare/7 ... R/737-800/


Good work! If they're gonna be parked side-by-side, as it appears is the current plan, and assuming that by "wingspan" they mean the horizontal distance from rightmost point to leftmost point (as opposed to airfoil length, which could include wingtips pointed upwards), I would just go: 47.6 x 7 =333.2, then divide that by 35.8, to get 9.31. For each extra plane, you're going to need to allow for space between the wingtips of that extra plane, so, to me, it looks like 9 737-800s. (That .31 of a 737 wingspan is about 11 meters, and so can probably be distributed enough to provide enough extra lateral spacing for 2 additional 737-800s, about 5.5 meters between wingtips, which should be doable. I'm thinking if you add one plane, you need one more gap between planes. If you add 2 planes, you need two more gaps.)
Since I don't know the actual pad size (and any permissible overhang), I don't know whether the 767s consume the exact entire width of the pad when appropriately-spaced between them, so really this is in part all an EWAG. Of course, what happens when you go to mix types? I'm sure they have planned for how optimally to use the spaces in a mixed-aircraft configuration, and that's what the dashed lines are for.

SO: Safe bet, assuming all my assumptions: between 9 and 10 737-800s.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Thu Aug 13, 2020 8:37 am

N388AA will be the next aircraft to head over to conversion in TLV. Should be heading to ILN today (8/13/20) from ROW.
 
MO11
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Thu Aug 13, 2020 1:56 pm

wjcandee wrote:

Interesting. So they have a very-different deal with Cargojet than they do with most others. Thanks for the correction.

So, it's 4 763s and the 762 leased from CAM? You know, duh, I don't even know why I'm asking. I should just read the thing you cited to. like a normal person. Sorry.

Okay, so I read the footnotes to that table, and I have to say I'm completely-confused. To make sense of it, I will need to print out the info on their fleet and match tails to descriptions and dates to understand better. Basically, from what you're saying, it sounds like the CAM 'leases" to Cargojet are finance leases which are basically counted as purchases.


CargoJet seems to muddy the waters when it describes "finance leases". The airplane formerly known as N365CM was bought off lease in October 2018. There are 3 more CAM -300s leased to CargoJet; the airplane formerly known as N370AA is due to be bought off lease in October. The lone CAM -200 keeps getting extended, now until Feb 2021.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Thu Aug 13, 2020 4:28 pm

MO11 wrote:
wjcandee wrote:

Interesting. So they have a very-different deal with Cargojet than they do with most others. Thanks for the correction.

So, it's 4 763s and the 762 leased from CAM? You know, duh, I don't even know why I'm asking. I should just read the thing you cited to. like a normal person. Sorry.

Okay, so I read the footnotes to that table, and I have to say I'm completely-confused. To make sense of it, I will need to print out the info on their fleet and match tails to descriptions and dates to understand better. Basically, from what you're saying, it sounds like the CAM 'leases" to Cargojet are finance leases which are basically counted as purchases.


CargoJet seems to muddy the waters when it describes "finance leases". The airplane formerly known as N365CM was bought off lease in October 2018. There are 3 more CAM -300s leased to CargoJet; the airplane formerly known as N370AA is due to be bought off lease in October. The lone CAM -200 keeps getting extended, now until Feb 2021.


Thank you! Your description is crystal-clear, unlike Cargojet's annual report. You saved me an hour of trying to figure stuff out!
 
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yochai
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Thu Aug 13, 2020 8:31 pm

wjcandee wrote:
N388AA will be the next aircraft to head over to conversion in TLV. Should be heading to ILN today (8/13/20) from ROW.


Expected at TLV on Sunday afternoon nonstop from Wilmington.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Thu Aug 13, 2020 9:38 pm

yochai wrote:
wjcandee wrote:
N388AA will be the next aircraft to head over to conversion in TLV. Should be heading to ILN today (8/13/20) from ROW.


Expected at TLV on Sunday afternoon nonstop from Wilmington.


Thanks, Yochai! Have you seen any 767s there in conversion other than N544LA, N394AN, N304CM, N392AN and N395AN?

I ask because we are wondering whether Cargojet's next aircraft is going to be one of the CAM conversions, or whether Cargojet is managing a conversion on its own (as it has done in the past). (Cargojet talks in their report about a 767 conversion -- doesn't say BCF or BDSF -- being "delivered" this coming October.)
 
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yochai
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Fri Aug 14, 2020 12:28 pm

wjcandee wrote:
yochai wrote:
wjcandee wrote:
N388AA will be the next aircraft to head over to conversion in TLV. Should be heading to ILN today (8/13/20) from ROW.


Expected at TLV on Sunday afternoon nonstop from Wilmington.


Thanks, Yochai! Have you seen any 767s there in conversion other than N544LA, N394AN, N304CM, N392AN and N395AN?

I ask because we are wondering whether Cargojet's next aircraft is going to be one of the CAM conversions, or whether Cargojet is managing a conversion on its own (as it has done in the past). (Cargojet talks in their report about a 767 conversion -- doesn't say BCF or BDSF -- being "delivered" this coming October.)


Ex Air Canada 767-300 C-FCAE is undergoing conversion for CJT and should be completed soon (arrived TLV in February)
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Fri Aug 14, 2020 3:09 pm

yochai wrote:
Ex Air Canada 767-300 C-FCAE is undergoing conversion for CJT and should be completed soon (arrived TLV in February)


Thank you, Yochai!! I knew that you would know!
 
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Spacepope
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Fri Aug 14, 2020 3:32 pm

wjcandee wrote:
yochai wrote:
Ex Air Canada 767-300 C-FCAE is undergoing conversion for CJT and should be completed soon (arrived TLV in February)


Thank you, Yochai!! I knew that you would know!


And according to AC, it was the fleet leader in hours at retirement with more than 138,000.

Source: https://www.aircanada.com/content/airca ... operations.
The last of the famous international playboys
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Fri Aug 14, 2020 3:41 pm

Spacepope wrote:
wjcandee wrote:
yochai wrote:
Ex Air Canada 767-300 C-FCAE is undergoing conversion for CJT and should be completed soon (arrived TLV in February)


Thank you, Yochai!! I knew that you would know!


And according to AC, it was the fleet leader in hours at retirement with more than 138,000.

Source: https://www.aircanada.com/content/airca ... operations.


Wow! And remember when 153DL and 1501P came to ILN, and the question was whether they were for parts since they had so many hours -- at about 114,000 each? I guess CAM proved the concept that with the heavy-check that they get at conversion and the right kind of maintenance program, 767s can fly reliably in cargo service even when they start with a lot of hours on the airframe.
 
MO11
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Fri Aug 14, 2020 4:04 pm

wjcandee wrote:
yochai wrote:
Ex Air Canada 767-300 C-FCAE is undergoing conversion for CJT and should be completed soon (arrived TLV in February)


Thank you, Yochai!! I knew that you would know!


But, there's one more! In CargoJet's Q1 report it shows that a fifth "owned" airplane was purchased last October, and is under conversion for planned delivery this quarter. In the Q2 report, it says another airplane was "finance leased" in July, for delivery in October. The end of year count goes from 12 to 14 767-300s.
 
darloscott
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Fri Aug 14, 2020 6:05 pm

Hey quick update from Europe thanks to Skyliner, GECAS B737-800's N541CC (29938) and N547CC (33544) both out of conversion in China in full Prime Air livery (noted at Shanghai) to be delivered to ASL Airlines in Ireland shortly. Will be the first two liveried aircraft in the European network.
I think there has been some minor changes to the Euro network recently, I'll try and round those up.
 
bmibaby737
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Fri Aug 14, 2020 6:52 pm

darloscott wrote:
Hey quick update from Europe thanks to Skyliner, GECAS B737-800's N541CC (29938) and N547CC (33544) both out of conversion in China in full Prime Air livery (noted at Shanghai) to be delivered to ASL Airlines in Ireland shortly. Will be the first two liveried aircraft in the European network.
I think there has been some minor changes to the Euro network recently, I'll try and round those up.


Skyliner isn't exactly faultless; have we got an original source of information for ASL Airlines receiving these 737s?
 
darloscott
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Fri Aug 14, 2020 8:43 pm

bmibaby737 wrote:
darloscott wrote:
Hey quick update from Europe thanks to Skyliner, GECAS B737-800's N541CC (29938) and N547CC (33544) both out of conversion in China in full Prime Air livery (noted at Shanghai) to be delivered to ASL Airlines in Ireland shortly. Will be the first two liveried aircraft in the European network.
I think there has been some minor changes to the Euro network recently, I'll try and round those up.


Skyliner isn't exactly faultless; have we got an original source of information for ASL Airlines receiving these 737s?

I’m sure these two were originally going to S7 Airlines in Russia? They’re former Ryanair EI-DAC/DAD. Will try and get some confirmation from somewhere. ASL do have a number of 738F on order though.
 
GoodRide
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Fri Aug 14, 2020 8:47 pm

Is N1511A one of the Atlas planes leased to Amazon? It has been going back and forth between ORD and Amsterdam since 8/4.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Fri Aug 14, 2020 9:01 pm

GoodRide wrote:
Is N1511A one of the Atlas planes leased to Amazon? It has been going back and forth between ORD and Amsterdam since 8/4.


N1511A is one of the Atlas spares for the Amazon contract. It's not dry-leased to Amazon. Either is N1619A.
 
bmibaby737
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Sat Aug 15, 2020 7:57 am

darloscott wrote:
bmibaby737 wrote:
darloscott wrote:
Hey quick update from Europe thanks to Skyliner, GECAS B737-800's N541CC (29938) and N547CC (33544) both out of conversion in China in full Prime Air livery (noted at Shanghai) to be delivered to ASL Airlines in Ireland shortly. Will be the first two liveried aircraft in the European network.
I think there has been some minor changes to the Euro network recently, I'll try and round those up.


Skyliner isn't exactly faultless; have we got an original source of information for ASL Airlines receiving these 737s?

I’m sure these two were originally going to S7 Airlines in Russia? They’re former Ryanair EI-DAC/DAD. Will try and get some confirmation from somewhere. ASL do have a number of 738F on order though.


GECAS are planning on delivering two aircraft to S7 in November 2020 and January 2021.

EI-DAD and EI-DAE are the ones apparently due for S7
 
darloscott
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Sat Aug 15, 2020 12:03 pm

bmibaby737 wrote:
darloscott wrote:
bmibaby737 wrote:

Skyliner isn't exactly faultless; have we got an original source of information for ASL Airlines receiving these 737s?

I’m sure these two were originally going to S7 Airlines in Russia? They’re former Ryanair EI-DAC/DAD. Will try and get some confirmation from somewhere. ASL do have a number of 738F on order though.


GECAS are planning on delivering two aircraft to S7 in November 2020 and January 2021.

EI-DAD and EI-DAE are the ones apparently due for S7


Hmm the wording on Skyliner is
Boeing 737 -8AS(F) 29938 1240 EI-DAC ASL Airlines Ireland at PVG 14aug20 in full Prime Aie cs prior delivery with N-reg (+ 33544/1249 EI-DAD ex N547CC) ex N541CC


I too have EI-DAD (33544) and EI-DAE (33545) down for S7 Airlines. The wording here is quite ambiguous and I can't find photos to back it up just yet. It could well be that 33544 is finished it's conversion and isn't in Prime livery!
 
Clancy223
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Mon Aug 17, 2020 12:55 pm

wjcandee wrote:
GoodRide wrote:
Is N1511A one of the Atlas planes leased to Amazon? It has been going back and forth between ORD and Amsterdam since 8/4.


N1511A is one of the Atlas spares for the Amazon contract. It's not dry-leased to Amazon. Either is N1619A.


N1511A and N663GT have been sharing the ORD-AMS-ORD flying for an Atlas contract with Geodis Wilson.
 
autopiloton
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Mon Aug 17, 2020 5:04 pm

Looks like N431AZ is out of paint in ROW and on its way to ILN today. Should be delivered by Sept 1st..that just leaves N433AZ to go.
 
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1337Delta764
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Mon Aug 17, 2020 11:55 pm

I have noticed that despite there being Amazon Air flights to SJU, the few things I have ordered in the past few months to my grandfather and cousin have been shipped UPS Mail Innovations or International Bridge. These were mainly clothing gifts.

I wonder if Amazon is priortizing their Amazon Air flights for essential goods, while non-essential items will get shipped UPS Mail Innovations or International Bridge.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Tue Aug 18, 2020 1:50 am

Looks like ATI had to cover a RIV-HNL-ONT turn for Atlas today. Since they already fly LAX-HNL-LAX daily for Aloha, I guess they're set up for it. N331AZ did the duty.
 
Clancy223
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Tue Aug 18, 2020 12:32 pm

wjcandee wrote:
Looks like ATI had to cover a RIV-HNL-ONT turn for Atlas today. Since they already fly LAX-HNL-LAX daily for Aloha, I guess they're set up for it. N331AZ did the duty.


Atlas had two 767s AOG in Hawaii... 1399A in KOA with an inop pack and 1499A returned to HNL with smoke in the cockpit.
 
Clancy223
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Tue Aug 18, 2020 12:34 pm

On Thursday, Aug 20 Atlas starts two more stations... MIA-SJU-MIA on the 767 and PDX-LAL-RFD with a Southern 737.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Tue Aug 18, 2020 6:04 pm

Looks like N5233A (737-800BCF) is done with conversion and has flown to PVG on 8/17/20. From previous posts, it appears that this one is going to SOO for Amazon.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Tue Aug 18, 2020 6:16 pm

Clancy223 wrote:
On Thursday, Aug 20 Atlas starts two more stations... MIA-SJU-MIA on the 767 and PDX-LAL-RFD with a Southern 737.


I figured we'd start to see some LAL routes on 737s, so there ya go. Also, for whatever reason, the SOO additions seem to be unadventurous; sticking with existing stations and maybe adding another node. Maybe the idea is not to overwhelm their capabilities, like appeared to happen with the first 3 aircraft.

Also interesting that now that SCX opened up SJU with a 738 from Tampa, Amazon is going full-bore with a 767-300 from MIA. Good on them.

I have to figure that we're not going to have too many more additions to the network this year. It seems that Amazon basically loads in its Peak schedule a little early, then freezes it through early January, to maximize reliability and predictability. Also explains why the last 767-300 to be added this year will be in September.

One reason that might change this year: the screwing around that the UPSs and now USPSs of the world are doing with rates and Peak disincentives. Whereas Amazon used its organic network for a fixed, reliable, self-controlled portion of its Peak business and ceded the rest to other carriers, to the extent that other carriers are making it more expensive/difficult for Amazon, and as Amazon has gained experience with its air and ground (truck and rail) operations, it may wish to Peak-Up a bit, to the extent it can. However, prudence dictates, particularly on the air side, that one get into place whatever network one plans to operate during Peak, and get it tweaked and running smoothly before one bombards it with packages. UPS and FedEx don't really do this because it is expensive; instead, based on decades of experience, they plan, plan, plan, and push the revised network into place right before they need it. Sometimes, this works very well; sometimes not. The smoothest year UPS had was right after a bad one, and the economy didn't push as much business their way as expected, so the combination of being Uber-Ready and a little-lighter Peak than they were ready for led to a stellar operational performance -- and loads of BS from "analysts" who said they overspent shareholders' profits (which in my view they had to do to regain credibility with customers, but the moneybaggers never see it that way). So the next year, well...you know: not so good. I think Amazon wants to avoid those peaks and valleys of performance in its in-house operation, which it has the flexibility to do.

Also, a prediction here: Trump will start to lay off the USPS as far as Amazon "abusing" it the more that shopping malls start to add Amazon facilities in the place of dead-space anchor tenants. Simon, one of the largest mall operators, has reached some kind of tentative deal with Amazon to try that with some of the Big Boxes left vacant by like JCPenney and Sears. Put a local distribution center in there, and you can salvage a lot. Advantages: Malls are already located optimally wrt highways and such, and now the dying ones have acres of unused parking. Perfect. And, very importantly, Amazon is gonna pay the same or more per square foot than a Big Box store would. Those "anchor tenants" always get away with paying a ridiculously-low price per square foot, because, the theory goes, they draw the crowds that will then go to what are called the "inline" stores in the portion of the mall between the big-boxes, the food court, etc. That may or may not actually be true, because some people just go to the mall to shop at Hot Topix or the Sunglass Hut or whatever or to stroll around, but that's the way rents are structured. Disadvantages: Many of the inline stores get significant rent reductions if the big boxes are x percent empty. And certainly fewer people will go to the mall if it doesn't feel active and they're staring at empty Big Boxes. The big question psychologically is whether they're not patronizing the Inlines because they're not starting first at JCPenney, or is it because the place is just depressing? I personally think it is the latter, primarily, and if 1/3 of the parking lot is filled with Amazon employee cars and Amazon vehicles, and the portion used by Amazon, while not available to mall shoppers, feels alive and happening, and the entire mall parking lot feels fresh and repaved and newly-landscaped -- the PLACE feels active, regardless of whether any particular Big Box is -- I think the Inlines will be surprised at how much business they keep and/or recover.

Anyway, the more that happens, the less this President is going to be attacking Amazon, I think, and blaming it for USPS losses. I do think that streamlining parts of the USPS via an outsider is a good idea in principle, but I think it's gonna have to wait until next year, at which point it may or may not happen, depending on election outcomes.
Last edited by wjcandee on Tue Aug 18, 2020 6:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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1337Delta764
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Tue Aug 18, 2020 6:21 pm

wjcandee wrote:
Clancy223 wrote:
On Thursday, Aug 20 Atlas starts two more stations... MIA-SJU-MIA on the 767 and PDX-LAL-RFD with a Southern 737.


I figured we'd start to see some LAL routes on 737s, so there ya go. Also, for whatever reason, the SOO additions seem to be unadventurous; sticking with existing stations and maybe adding another node. Maybe the idea is not to overwhelm their capabilities, like appeared to happen with the first 3 aircraft.

Also interesting that now that SCX opened up SJU with a 738 from Tampa, Amazon is going full-bore with a 767-300 from MIA. Good on them.

I have to figure that we're not going to have too many more additions to the network this year. It seems that Amazon basically loads in its Peak schedule a little early, then freezes it through early January, to maximize reliability and predictability. Also explains why the last 767-300 to be added this year will be in September.

One reason that might change this year: the screwing around that the UPSs and now USPSs of the world are doing with rates and Peak disincentives. Whereas Amazon used its organic network for a fixed, reliable, self-controlled portion of its Peak business and ceded the rest to other carriers, to the extent that other carriers are making it more expensive/difficult for Amazon, and as Amazon has gained experience with its air and ground (truck and rail) operations, it may wish to Peak-Up a bit, to the extent it can. However, prudence dictates, particularly on the air side, that one get into place whatever network one plans to operate during Peak, and get it tweaked and running smoothly before one bombards it with packages. UPS and FedEx don't really do this because it is expensive; instead, based on decades of experience, they plan, plan, plan, and push the revised network into place right before they need it. Sometimes, this works very well; sometimes not. The smoothest year UPS had was right after a bad one, and the economy didn't push as much business their way as expected, so the combination of being Uber-Ready and a little-lighter Peak than they were ready for led to a stellar operational performance -- and loads of BS from "analysts" who said they overspent shareholders' profits (which in my view they had to do to regain credibility with customers, but the moneybaggers never see it that way). So the next year, well...you know: not so good. I think Amazon wants to avoid those peaks and valleys of performance in its in-house operation, which it has the flexibility to do.



I just still find odd that all of my recent Puerto Rico Amazon orders have either been shipped UPS Mail Innovations or International Bridge despite the Amazon Air flights. Perhaps Amazon is using their flights mainly for essential goods, while non-essential items get bumped to UPS-MI or International Bridge.

Also, remember that last mile for Amazon Air in Alaska/Hawaii/Puerto Rico is by USPS.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Tue Aug 18, 2020 6:34 pm

1337Delta764 wrote:

I just still find odd that all of my recent Puerto Rico Amazon orders have either been shipped UPS Mail Innovations or International Bridge despite the Amazon Air flights. Perhaps Amazon is using their flights mainly for essential goods, while non-essential items get bumped to UPS-MI or International Bridge.

Also, remember that last mile for Amazon Air in Alaska/Hawaii/Puerto Rico is by USPS.


Yeah, I think that one little 737-800 from TPA isn't going to revolutionize Amazon business to PR. Maybe when the Atlas 767 starts up, it may help. Neither are likely to be carrying much stuff from west of the Mississippi at this point, however. There is probably plenty of material originating in the DCs in Florida to populate those flights. So if it is something coming from somewhere else, no surprise it's rolling through International Bridge or such for now.
 
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1337Delta764
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Tue Aug 18, 2020 7:38 pm

wjcandee wrote:
1337Delta764 wrote:

I just still find odd that all of my recent Puerto Rico Amazon orders have either been shipped UPS Mail Innovations or International Bridge despite the Amazon Air flights. Perhaps Amazon is using their flights mainly for essential goods, while non-essential items get bumped to UPS-MI or International Bridge.

Also, remember that last mile for Amazon Air in Alaska/Hawaii/Puerto Rico is by USPS.


Yeah, I think that one little 737-800 from TPA isn't going to revolutionize Amazon business to PR. Maybe when the Atlas 767 starts up, it may help. Neither are likely to be carrying much stuff from west of the Mississippi at this point, however. There is probably plenty of material originating in the DCs in Florida to populate those flights. So if it is something coming from somewhere else, no surprise it's rolling through International Bridge or such for now.


My most recent order to PR shipped from Orlando yet shipped via UPS-MI. However, UPS-MI's flight to SJU is from MCO, so it makes sense.

Speaking of MIA, I remember Amazon used to freight-forward packages via MIA on some cargo airline (possibly Amerijet?). I wonder if the Amazon Air flights via Atlas are a replacement for this service.
 
MajMattMason
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Tue Aug 18, 2020 9:38 pm

wjcandee wrote:
Clancy223 wrote:
On Thursday, Aug 20 Atlas starts two more stations... MIA-SJU-MIA on the 767 and PDX-LAL-RFD with a Southern 737.


I figured we'd start to see some LAL routes on 737s, so there ya go....


The growth in LAL might be slowed down a bit. They are redoing the back third of the ramp parking spots in front of the sort from Asphalt to concrete due to K loaders and aircraft sinking into the surface due to the heat. Have to rip up the asphalt, pour concrete and let it set up. Looks like they are doing it in sections. Looks like they’re running with two active spots and one spare parking spot?
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Tue Aug 18, 2020 10:18 pm

MajMattMason wrote:
wjcandee wrote:
Clancy223 wrote:
On Thursday, Aug 20 Atlas starts two more stations... MIA-SJU-MIA on the 767 and PDX-LAL-RFD with a Southern 737.


I figured we'd start to see some LAL routes on 737s, so there ya go....


The growth in LAL might be slowed down a bit. They are redoing the back third of the ramp parking spots in front of the sort from Asphalt to concrete due to K loaders and aircraft sinking into the surface due to the heat. Have to rip up the asphalt, pour concrete and let it set up. Looks like they are doing it in sections. Looks like they’re running with two active spots and one spare parking spot?


Gotta love Florida. Kind of a rookie move by the LAL airport operators not to catch the design deficiency, but I guess they're kind of rookies at Big Plane Operations. There is a concrete pad there, but I guess they need it to be much-deeper (i.e. longer fore and aft) if they're going to operate in the Florida Summer Sun! You would think that the operations at AFW would inform their needs: I lived in Dallas for like a decade, and the summers get HOT. But I guess something got lost in translation.
 
Clancy223
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Tue Aug 18, 2020 10:37 pm

wjcandee wrote:
1337Delta764 wrote:

I just still find odd that all of my recent Puerto Rico Amazon orders have either been shipped UPS Mail Innovations or International Bridge despite the Amazon Air flights. Perhaps Amazon is using their flights mainly for essential goods, while non-essential items get bumped to UPS-MI or International Bridge.

Also, remember that last mile for Amazon Air in Alaska/Hawaii/Puerto Rico is by USPS.


Yeah, I think that one little 737-800 from TPA isn't going to revolutionize Amazon business to PR. Maybe when the Atlas 767 starts up, it may help. Neither are likely to be carrying much stuff from west of the Mississippi at this point, however. There is probably plenty of material originating in the DCs in Florida to populate those flights. So if it is something coming from somewhere else, no surprise it's rolling through International Bridge or such for now.


Departure time from MIA is 6:39pm EST... connecting cargo from ONT, CVG, BWI, and IAH will be availabl for the SJU run.
 
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sunking737
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Tue Aug 18, 2020 10:48 pm

Back in the day at Long Beach, Douglas moved a DC-10 down the wrong taxi way. Asphalt way too soft. Sometimes lessons are learned the hard way.
"Don't believe it unless its parked on the ramp, or printed in the schedule...SUBJECT TO CHANGE"

I'm a SUNDUCK......Worked for RC & SY @ MSP
 
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1337Delta764
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Tue Aug 18, 2020 11:23 pm

Looks like this time my UPS-MI shipment to PR is going by sea from Jacksonville (it was handed off to USPS in the mainland). I wonder for what reason Amazon is doing this. I know in the past UPS-MI shipments to PR went via MCO. I hope it doesn't get lost.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Wed Aug 19, 2020 12:21 am

N388AA is on its way to TLV, departing tonight at 8pm local time (8/18/20). However, it is going to be stopping at SNN, rather than making the run nonstop.

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