I know Amazon had re-uped the leases on the 12 762s however as we were discussing earlier, several of those frames will be hitting bingo cycles in the near future. ABX can rotate in other 762s to backfill but ATI doesn't have any 762 spares. What are the odds the ATI 762s get replaced 1 for 1 with 763s in the not too distant future?
Well, you inspired me to go back and look at the numbers!
As you mention, the 767-200s are currently dry-leased into 2023, with a 3-year extension option. And they only burn about 700-ish cycles annually.
On the ATI side, 739AX has the most cycles, with probably 45,000-ish, leaving about 7 years to LOV at current utilization, which would just about make it to the end of the 3-year extension. 791AX is about 1000 cycles behind that. 761CX, in contrast, has only about 21,500 cycles, and 714AX should have about 26,400 cycles. 762CX and 763CX should be around 40,200 by now. So they all should make it to the end of the 3-year extension if Amazon exercises it, although two would be close to done by then.
On the ABX side, 795AX should be at about 47,000 cycles, which is the highest, and so probably couldn't be used at the same rate to the end of any 3-year extension. 768AX should be about 45,000 now, and 774AX should be around 43,500, with 744AX around 43,000. All of those 3 should make it to the end of a 3-year extension, if they can be made to fly reliably to the end, which we have seen ATSG do with other high-cycle aircraft. 749AX and 750AX are in the 37,750 range now, so have plenty of cycles left at current utilization.
I have been using 700 cycles annually as a benchmark, and on average it looks like the ATI frames do 710-720 when I look at the old SDR cycle numbers vs the newest ones, but the ABX ones seem actually closer to 620-650, which may be because ABX often uses other than the Amazon frames to do Amazon runs.
Regardless, it looks like all but N795AX is going to make to 2026, if present utilization continues and AMES is able to help ATSG nurse the oldest of these gals to and through their last few thousand cycles before LOV. But, depending on performance, it might be prudent to let a couple of them retire at the end of 2023... I have to say, though, N798AX ran pretty-reliably, at a very high tempo during the last Peak, right to the end, and ABX currently has plenty of spare 767-200s to cover maintenance issues on the leased Amazon birds at ABX.
So it will be interesting to see!!