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CALMSP
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Wed May 06, 2020 2:18 pm

jetblueguy22 wrote:
Just an observation I’ve made over the last week or so...is Amazon shifting a lot of flights to certain areas? My office faces out to the taxiway at our airport and we used to see 7-10 flights a day easy. Now seeing one is almost an exception. Looking at Flightradar they only had 2 turns today.

It’s just been a dramatic turn. I swear I spent half my day watching ABX and Atlas jets taxing past.


where?
 
CX747
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Wed May 06, 2020 2:51 pm

wjcandee wrote:
CX747: There was a nifty article I saw somewhere today about how the 747 is extraordinarily in-demand and newly-appreciated in this strange time. Think it was the WSJ. I'll see if I can find it because you might enjoy it.


I'll be on the lookout for it. As my name suggests, I'm partial to the 747.

While it wouldn't necessarily be the best, I was thinking about Amazon and the 747 this morning. There is now plenty of 747-400 feedstock for a renewed conversion program. Wonder if they discuss or take a stab at buying a few, converting them and having them run on an international scale? A large enough fleet to control the movement of certain widgets etc that are high volume sellers. You can move them at your own pace from overseas to domestic spots, for the 767s to then bring to their final destination. Well maintained, cheap widebodies that could all be in one build pattern, ala buying 8 Lufthansa 747s.

In regards to SpacePope's comments. Absolutely spot on, if an airline can grab onto this swing it could really propel them. I saw this morning that an ex- El Al 747-400F was still available to buy from a third party owner. That right there, right now, could be the window for a company. Operate a 747 around the world, on time, professionally and bring in plenty of revenue. A great launching pad.
"History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or timid." D. Eisenhower
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Wed May 06, 2020 5:24 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Has Amazon committed to any new conversions? 767 stock seems to be available, but is Amazon signing contracts to convert more aircraft?


You know I wrote a whole detailed response to this yesterday. I must have forgotten to push "Submit". Oy.

Short version: They're getting 5 this year from ATSG. However, 4 of the 5 are already on property, and the 5th is N379AA, which should be back from TLV in a month or so.

Meanwhile, ATSG has 7 aircraft in various stages of conversion at TLV (including 379AA), 3 aircraft that it has purchased from the AA-retired Fleet that will be next to go to TLV, and a purchase option as to essentially-all of the other 16 retiring AA aircraft. So that's potentially 25 aircraft beyond what's currently going to Amazon. We know that UPS is still owed one, and we know that at least one other airline wants more.

I think that ultimately Amazon is going to want a meaningful number more 767-300s. Whether they order new or order more conversions from ATSG/CAM, I don't know. So how quickly ATSG moves through the 19 aircraft on which it has options (and there are onesies-twosies that are available to it as well) depends on how many and how fast Amazon wants its frames, and how much throughput is available at IAI/Bedek. Remember that ATSG gets exclusive-vendor pricing from IAI. Never say never about BCFs, I guess, but all the 767-300s aircraft operated for Amazon by ATSG are BDSFs, including the two that are leased by Amazon from AAWW-subsidiary Andromeda, and which used to be operated by Atlas..
 
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Spacepope
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Wed May 06, 2020 5:36 pm

I know Amazon had re-uped the leases on the 12 762s however as we were discussing earlier, several of those frames will be hitting bingo cycles in the near future. ABX can rotate in other 762s to backfill but ATI doesn't have any 762 spares. What are the odds the ATI 762s get replaced 1 for 1 with 763s in the not too distant future?
The last of the famous international playboys
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Wed May 06, 2020 8:03 pm

Spacepope wrote:
I know Amazon had re-uped the leases on the 12 762s however as we were discussing earlier, several of those frames will be hitting bingo cycles in the near future. ABX can rotate in other 762s to backfill but ATI doesn't have any 762 spares. What are the odds the ATI 762s get replaced 1 for 1 with 763s in the not too distant future?


Well, you inspired me to go back and look at the numbers!

As you mention, the 767-200s are currently dry-leased into 2023, with a 3-year extension option. And they only burn about 700-ish cycles annually.

On the ATI side, 739AX has the most cycles, with probably 45,000-ish, leaving about 7 years to LOV at current utilization, which would just about make it to the end of the 3-year extension. 791AX is about 1000 cycles behind that. 761CX, in contrast, has only about 21,500 cycles, and 714AX should have about 26,400 cycles. 762CX and 763CX should be around 40,200 by now. So they all should make it to the end of the 3-year extension if Amazon exercises it, although two would be close to done by then.

On the ABX side, 795AX should be at about 47,000 cycles, which is the highest, and so probably couldn't be used at the same rate to the end of any 3-year extension. 768AX should be about 45,000 now, and 774AX should be around 43,500, with 744AX around 43,000. All of those 3 should make it to the end of a 3-year extension, if they can be made to fly reliably to the end, which we have seen ATSG do with other high-cycle aircraft. 749AX and 750AX are in the 37,750 range now, so have plenty of cycles left at current utilization.

I have been using 700 cycles annually as a benchmark, and on average it looks like the ATI frames do 710-720 when I look at the old SDR cycle numbers vs the newest ones, but the ABX ones seem actually closer to 620-650, which may be because ABX often uses other than the Amazon frames to do Amazon runs.

Regardless, it looks like all but N795AX is going to make to 2026, if present utilization continues and AMES is able to help ATSG nurse the oldest of these gals to and through their last few thousand cycles before LOV. But, depending on performance, it might be prudent to let a couple of them retire at the end of 2023... I have to say, though, N798AX ran pretty-reliably, at a very high tempo during the last Peak, right to the end, and ABX currently has plenty of spare 767-200s to cover maintenance issues on the leased Amazon birds at ABX.

So it will be interesting to see!!
 
danipawa
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Wed May 06, 2020 8:15 pm

lot of B767 available now with AA, AC, Austrian, and maybe UA retiring them..
 
CALMSP
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Wed May 06, 2020 8:18 pm

CX747 wrote:
wjcandee wrote:
CX747: There was a nifty article I saw somewhere today about how the 747 is extraordinarily in-demand and newly-appreciated in this strange time. Think it was the WSJ. I'll see if I can find it because you might enjoy it.


I'll be on the lookout for it. As my name suggests, I'm partial to the 747.

While it wouldn't necessarily be the best, I was thinking about Amazon and the 747 this morning. There is now plenty of 747-400 feedstock for a renewed conversion program. Wonder if they discuss or take a stab at buying a few, converting them and having them run on an international scale? A large enough fleet to control the movement of certain widgets etc that are high volume sellers. You can move them at your own pace from overseas to domestic spots, for the 767s to then bring to their final destination. Well maintained, cheap widebodies that could all be in one build pattern, ala buying 8 Lufthansa 747s.

In regards to SpacePope's comments. Absolutely spot on, if an airline can grab onto this swing it could really propel them. I saw this morning that an ex- El Al 747-400F was still available to buy from a third party owner. That right there, right now, could be the window for a company. Operate a 747 around the world, on time, professionally and bring in plenty of revenue. A great launching pad.


utilizing the 744 in the same aspect as they do with the 763 fleet? there are plenty of 763's that are not being filled to capacity, so not fully sure what the 747 would bring to the network.
 
CX747
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Wed May 06, 2020 10:08 pm

danipawa wrote:
lot of B767 available now with AA, AC, Austrian, and maybe UA retiring them..


Plenty of 76s available like you said. Reading posts above, does it make sense to buy up more 767-300s now when you may not need them until 2026-2027?
"History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or timid." D. Eisenhower
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Wed May 06, 2020 10:35 pm

CX747 wrote:
danipawa wrote:
lot of B767 available now with AA, AC, Austrian, and maybe UA retiring them..


Plenty of 76s available like you said. Reading posts above, does it make sense to buy up more 767-300s now when you may not need them until 2026-2027?


One thing that ATSG has typically done is to buy purchase options on retired or retiring aircraft. There may be an outer time limit on the exercise of the option that is pretty-soon, or it may be way down the line. Recently, they have been working with Jetran on this, as Jetran, which has substantial financial muscle, works a package out with the passenger carrier to liberate them of their aircraft no muss, no fuss. And, like I say, ATSG then buys an option from Jetran. ATSG has also made various deals on its own. And it seems like Jetran has brokered a few other deals with ATSG, like the ANA Cargo BCFs.

The options are reasonably-priced, and create value because they create certainty in terms of feedstock quality, price and availability. Then, as the time where ATSG is expecting to send the aircraft to TLV approaches (or an option is due to expire), they exercise the option and pay the purchase price of the aircraft. If they don't need more aircraft, they may be out some or all of the option price, but the options have value in themselves and they haven't taken on the financial burden of ownership.

The Really Big Deal that ATSG did like a year ago was to option from Jetran almost-all of the retiring AA aircraft, which Jetran had already tied up with AA. They also bought a few already-parked AA 767-300s that Jetran owned. So far, these have basically converted smoothly and operated well -- they were well maintained by their single owner. So they have a pretty-good pool of convertible aircraft to keep IAI/Bedek busy for a few years. Beyond that, it's a good point that maybe there are some other big pools to option, although 5-6 years is pretty-far-out, and it depends a lot on what they think the need for mid-sized cargo aircraft is going to look like going forward, as well as what Amazon's wants/needs are going to be.
 
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Spacepope
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Wed May 06, 2020 11:11 pm

wjcandee wrote:
Spacepope wrote:
I know Amazon had re-uped the leases on the 12 762s however as we were discussing earlier, several of those frames will be hitting bingo cycles in the near future. ABX can rotate in other 762s to backfill but ATI doesn't have any 762 spares. What are the odds the ATI 762s get replaced 1 for 1 with 763s in the not too distant future?


Well, you inspired me to go back and look at the numbers!

As you mention, the 767-200s are currently dry-leased into 2023, with a 3-year extension option. And they only burn about 700-ish cycles annually.

On the ATI side, 739AX has the most cycles, with probably 45,000-ish, leaving about 7 years to LOV at current utilization, which would just about make it to the end of the 3-year extension. 791AX is about 1000 cycles behind that. 761CX, in contrast, has only about 21,500 cycles, and 714AX should have about 26,400 cycles. 762CX and 763CX should be around 40,200 by now. So they all should make it to the end of the 3-year extension if Amazon exercises it, although two would be close to done by then.

On the ABX side, 795AX should be at about 47,000 cycles, which is the highest, and so probably couldn't be used at the same rate to the end of any 3-year extension. 768AX should be about 45,000 now, and 774AX should be around 43,500, with 744AX around 43,000. All of those 3 should make it to the end of a 3-year extension, if they can be made to fly reliably to the end, which we have seen ATSG do with other high-cycle aircraft. 749AX and 750AX are in the 37,750 range now, so have plenty of cycles left at current utilization.

I have been using 700 cycles annually as a benchmark, and on average it looks like the ATI frames do 710-720 when I look at the old SDR cycle numbers vs the newest ones, but the ABX ones seem actually closer to 620-650, which may be because ABX often uses other than the Amazon frames to do Amazon runs.


Ahh see I was under the impression that CAM retired their 762s at the next heavy check after they hit around 46,000 cycles, which is why I thought those ticking time bombs had a shorter fuse.
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wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Thu May 07, 2020 12:35 am

Spacepope wrote:
Ahh see I was under the impression that CAM retired their 762s at the next heavy check after they hit around 46,000 cycles, which is why I thought those ticking time bombs had a shorter fuse.


You could very well be correct. I had not been aware of that. I just drew my conclusions from watching them run N798AX and 792AX basically right to the LOV, and noticed them repaint 798AX just 9 months before retiring her. So I don't know; maybe they do have the policy that you mention, and maybe they made an exception for those two frames given their operational requirements at the time... And those two, of course, were ABX frames. They were not frames leased to Amazon, who obviously has a say in the matter (by virtue of determining whether to extend the leases or not).
 
sunking737
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Thu May 07, 2020 12:36 am

SY first Amazon 737-800F flew to TPA today to start SY flights for Amazon..N547RL.IIRR...SY plans on all 10 Amazon jets by end of July...Lets see how this goes...Maybe SY will fly more over the next few years.
"Don't believe it unless its parked on the ramp, or printed in the schedule...SUBJECT TO CHANGE"

I'm a SUNDUCK......Worked for RC & SY @ MSP
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Thu May 07, 2020 12:48 am

And I was just thinking about N741AX, which, it was pointed out, traveled from TPA to ROW about 6 days ago. We're assuming it was going for paint rather than to storage, and we mused about in whose livery it was likely to be painted. I recognized that one possibility is that Amerijet needs planes and might be interested in re-leasing it, but I now realize that when it was stored in TPA, it still had the full Amerijet livery on it, and it didn't look that bad. So if it's being repainted, stands to reason it could be going to someone else.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Thu May 07, 2020 12:49 am

sunking737 wrote:
SY first Amazon 737-800F flew to TPA today to start SY flights for Amazon..N547RL.IIRR...SY plans on all 10 Amazon jets by end of July...Lets see how this goes...Maybe SY will fly more over the next few years.


Interesting they didn't finalize the renumbering to N5261A before putting it in service. I guess the FAA is moving slowly because of the shutdowns...

The real question is whether the aircraft will see some interesting routings, additional stations, and decent utilization, something that Southern was never able to muster with the ones it was operating, because it couldn't staff the operation.

I wonder what the median pilot age/pilot experience numbers are for the people flying the SY Amazon flights vs the 9S Amazon flights.

Adding another 10 aircraft very-quickly should be easy-peasy for SY. Staffing, dispatching, maintenance, etc. should be very doable, given that SY already operates the exact same aircraft type, and the frames they usually operate are running, if at all, at a very low tempo. (18 out of 32 parked, per Planespotters.net.)
 
sunking737
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Thu May 07, 2020 2:13 am

When it comes to re registering the FAA is slow. SY flew one or two Aeromexico planes with the old U.S. numbers ending in AM for a couple of weeks. I was out at MSP today. Sad site to see all the SY planes siting here and there. The plus side is a large pool of pilots ready to fly until things pick up again Oh I forgot the SCX flight number was 5500.to TPA
"Don't believe it unless its parked on the ramp, or printed in the schedule...SUBJECT TO CHANGE"

I'm a SUNDUCK......Worked for RC & SY @ MSP
 
USAirKid
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Thu May 07, 2020 2:31 am

Spacepope wrote:

Back on to Amazon, placed an order on prime a few days ago for the first time in quite a while. Delivery dates are really far out. While the Prime Air flights are going out heavy, there aren’t any additional rotations. Is there any more getting shifted to UPS air, or other carriers?


I’ve noted in this pandemic that Amazon is sandbagging a bit. Once my packages ship, most of them are arriving at least one day earlier than they promised. This is different since the pandemic.

I’ve also seen them move up the arrival dates on items by a week or more. Also a pandemic change.

Amazon is very clearly under promising and just delivering. I also expect the extended dates are planned to help reduce demand. Amazon has been doing several things to moderate demand so they don’t get caught promising something they ultimately can’t provide.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Thu May 07, 2020 4:44 pm

wjcandee wrote:
CX747: There was a nifty article I saw somewhere today about how the 747 is extraordinarily in-demand and newly-appreciated in this strange time. Think it was the WSJ. I'll see if I can find it because you might enjoy it.


Found it. It was on CNN. https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/ ... index.html
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Thu May 07, 2020 5:43 pm

And first SY 737-800 round-trip is almost complete. TPA-CVG-TPA. (5/7/20) https://flightaware.com/live/flight/N547RL
 
sunking737
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Thu May 07, 2020 5:49 pm

Woot, Woot. Another chapter opens at SY.
"Don't believe it unless its parked on the ramp, or printed in the schedule...SUBJECT TO CHANGE"

I'm a SUNDUCK......Worked for RC & SY @ MSP
 
sunking737
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Thu May 07, 2020 5:51 pm

Woot, Woot. Another chapter opens at SY. I found out SY has 386 pilots with ZERO on lay off as of April 14th. If my math is right 12 crews per current fleet of 32 planes. No staffing issue I'm sure
"Don't believe it unless its parked on the ramp, or printed in the schedule...SUBJECT TO CHANGE"

I'm a SUNDUCK......Worked for RC & SY @ MSP
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Thu May 07, 2020 8:42 pm

I also see that N543RL flew into PVG today. I don't know for sure that that's one of the ones going to Amazon, but it makes sense that it would be.
 
sunking737
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Thu May 07, 2020 9:13 pm

I have to keep on eye on about 7 more planes. Oh darn. SY is said to have all 10 by end of July.
"Don't believe it unless its parked on the ramp, or printed in the schedule...SUBJECT TO CHANGE"

I'm a SUNDUCK......Worked for RC & SY @ MSP
 
mcg
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Thu May 07, 2020 10:07 pm

So, there are (or will be) a large number of 763's that Amazon could acquire. I wonder if they are really of much interest to Amazon if they can't reasonably quickly be converted to freighters. Do the folks that do freighter conversions have the ability to increase the rate at which they are able to complete conversions?
 
CX747
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Fri May 08, 2020 1:48 am

wjcandee wrote:
wjcandee wrote:
CX747: There was a nifty article I saw somewhere today about how the 747 is extraordinarily in-demand and newly-appreciated in this strange time. Think it was the WSJ. I'll see if I can find it because you might enjoy it.


Found it. It was on CNN. https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/ ... index.html


Playing out the role of a freighter, as it was designed to in the beginning.
"History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or timid." D. Eisenhower
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Fri May 08, 2020 3:26 am

mcg wrote:
So, there are (or will be) a large number of 763's that Amazon could acquire. I wonder if they are really of much interest to Amazon if they can't reasonably quickly be converted to freighters. Do the folks that do freighter conversions have the ability to increase the rate at which they are able to complete conversions?


Within reason. I don't know what if anything is in the Mexicana MRO shop in MEX right now, for example. They're the overflow conversion location for IAI/Bedek, and they did like 4 Kalitta 767 conversions, for example. They have heretofore only done one at a time, but perhaps could do more in a pinch, and they turn them around pretty-fast (3-4 months in some cases). Amazon seems to plan everything very diligently, and then adjust and adapt as necessary, so I'm fairly-confident that they know what they're planning to need in 2021, and probably have discussed same with their vendors. This may have something to do with why ATSG has 7 aircraft in conversion in TLV right now, and 3 they have actually purchased waiting to go to TLV, when they only need just ONE of them to complete their 10-plane Amazon order for 2019-2020.

So that's TEN aircraft they have committed real $$ to, and known Amazon demand for only ONE. We do know UPS is still waiting for one more from ATSG, and that another customer wants at least one, but ATSG isn't dumb enough to think they can place 8 more freighters in a year without being aware of some pretty-specific expected demand for them.

The two ex-ANA-Cargo planes are BCFs, but they are the only ones I know of in the CAM fleet; ATSG has always used IAI/Bedek to do conversions on 767s.
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Fri May 08, 2020 3:49 am

CX747 wrote:
wjcandee wrote:
CX747: There was a nifty article I saw somewhere today about how the 747 is extraordinarily in-demand and newly-appreciated in this strange time. Think it was the WSJ. I'll see if I can find it because you might enjoy it.


I'll be on the lookout for it. As my name suggests, I'm partial to the 747.

While it wouldn't necessarily be the best, I was thinking about Amazon and the 747 this morning. There is now plenty of 747-400 feedstock for a renewed conversion program. Wonder if they discuss or take a stab at buying a few, converting them and having them run on an international scale? A large enough fleet to control the movement of certain widgets etc that are high volume sellers. You can move them at your own pace from overseas to domestic spots, for the 767s to then bring to their final destination. Well maintained, cheap widebodies that could all be in one build pattern, ala buying 8 Lufthansa 747s.

In regards to SpacePope's comments. Absolutely spot on, if an airline can grab onto this swing it could really propel them. I saw this morning that an ex- El Al 747-400F was still available to buy from a third party owner. That right there, right now, could be the window for a company. Operate a 747 around the world, on time, professionally and bring in plenty of revenue. A great launching pad.


I think it was this article in CNN
https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/boei ... index.html

COVID has changed aviation demand and capacity, with the falloff of passenger flights, the missing belly cargo capacity has impacted the market. Will it return to where belly cargo could cover most of the freight market. I think not. I suspect there will be a freighter market coming out of this for possibly 50 767F's and 30 777F's per year once we get out of this deep hole. I am watching to see what Amazon does, I suspect they will go for some 77W P2F's once that program gets going.
 
dcs921
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Fri May 08, 2020 3:52 am

Per UPS most recent 8K. It shows they have 2 767-300 BDSF on order. So 2 of the 10 should be allocated to them.
 
smartplane
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Fri May 08, 2020 4:00 am

USAirKid wrote:
Spacepope wrote:

Back on to Amazon, placed an order on prime a few days ago for the first time in quite a while. Delivery dates are really far out. While the Prime Air flights are going out heavy, there aren’t any additional rotations. Is there any more getting shifted to UPS air, or other carriers?


I’ve noted in this pandemic that Amazon is sandbagging a bit. Once my packages ship, most of them are arriving at least one day earlier than they promised. This is different since the pandemic.

I’ve also seen them move up the arrival dates on items by a week or more. Also a pandemic change.

Amazon is very clearly under promising and just delivering. I also expect the extended dates are planned to help reduce demand. Amazon has been doing several things to moderate demand so they don’t get caught promising something they ultimately can’t provide.

Amazon are showing all products are out of stock if you try to order in NZ.

AliExpress quoting 80-90 days shipment times - obviously sea freight.

EU mail order companies have more than doubled air freight rates to NZ, effectively killing demand.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Fri May 08, 2020 4:46 am

dcs921 wrote:
Per UPS most recent 8K. It shows they have 2 767-300 BDSF on order. So 2 of the 10 should be allocated to them.


That's so interesting. You are right. I guess UPS added another frame to its original 4-frame order. I know that the original press release from ATSG said that they had agreed to lease 4 to UPS, and I hadn't seen anything else, but you are correct.

They have delivered: N391UP (formerly I-AIGJ, ex-Meridiana originally Brittania), N392UP (formerly I-AIGG, same-ish pedigree) and N394UP (ex-ANA and ANA Cargo BCF).

To my knowledge, the next aircraft back from TLV, which is now N304CM, ex-LATAM CC-CZT, is going to be leased to UPS as N393UP. What I didn't know, and just determined as a result of your post, is that the other LATAM aircraft, now N308CM, is expected to go to UPS as N395UP.

So it looks as if UPS must be satisfied with the first 3. I had previously asked why UPS didn't take the other two ex-ANA aircraft, because they're basically available now -- all they need is paint. Someone responded that the one they took was FADEC, but the other two are a couple of years older, and non-FADEC, and UPS didn't want to deal with a non-FADEC 763.
 
sunking737
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Fri May 08, 2020 11:34 am

The next two SY 737-800F are due in MSP next week. one on Monday, the other on Friday. Depending on paperwork approval of former operators being correct. Should see a couple more coming over from China in a few days to PAE.
"Don't believe it unless its parked on the ramp, or printed in the schedule...SUBJECT TO CHANGE"

I'm a SUNDUCK......Worked for RC & SY @ MSP
 
mcg
Posts: 1066
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Fri May 08, 2020 4:46 pm

wjcandee wrote:
mcg wrote:
So, there are (or will be) a large number of 763's that Amazon could acquire. I wonder if they are really of much interest to Amazon if they can't reasonably quickly be converted to freighters. Do the folks that do freighter conversions have the ability to increase the rate at which they are able to complete conversions?


Within reason. I don't know what if anything is in the Mexicana MRO shop in MEX right now, for example. They're the overflow conversion location for IAI/Bedek, and they did like 4 Kalitta 767 conversions, for example. They have heretofore only done one at a time, but perhaps could do more in a pinch, and they turn them around pretty-fast (3-4 months in some cases). Amazon seems to plan everything very diligently, and then adjust and adapt as necessary, so I'm fairly-confident that they know what they're planning to need in 2021, and probably have discussed same with their vendors. This may have something to do with why ATSG has 7 aircraft in conversion in TLV right now, and 3 they have actually purchased waiting to go to TLV, when they only need just ONE of them to complete their 10-plane Amazon order for 2019-2020.

So that's TEN aircraft they have committed real $$ to, and known Amazon demand for only ONE. We do know UPS is still waiting for one more from ATSG, and that another customer wants at least one, but ATSG isn't dumb enough to think they can place 8 more freighters in a year without being aware of some pretty-specific expected demand for them.

The two ex-ANA-Cargo planes are BCFs, but they are the only ones I know of in the CAM fleet; ATSG has always used IAI/Bedek to do conversions on 767s.



So, what do you think, will Amazon choose to source any of the 763's that seem likely to be removed from various airlines fleets? It would seem like a pretty big decision to me.
 
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Spacepope
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Fri May 08, 2020 6:17 pm

mcg wrote:
wjcandee wrote:
mcg wrote:
So, there are (or will be) a large number of 763's that Amazon could acquire. I wonder if they are really of much interest to Amazon if they can't reasonably quickly be converted to freighters. Do the folks that do freighter conversions have the ability to increase the rate at which they are able to complete conversions?


Within reason. I don't know what if anything is in the Mexicana MRO shop in MEX right now, for example. They're the overflow conversion location for IAI/Bedek, and they did like 4 Kalitta 767 conversions, for example. They have heretofore only done one at a time, but perhaps could do more in a pinch, and they turn them around pretty-fast (3-4 months in some cases). Amazon seems to plan everything very diligently, and then adjust and adapt as necessary, so I'm fairly-confident that they know what they're planning to need in 2021, and probably have discussed same with their vendors. This may have something to do with why ATSG has 7 aircraft in conversion in TLV right now, and 3 they have actually purchased waiting to go to TLV, when they only need just ONE of them to complete their 10-plane Amazon order for 2019-2020.

So that's TEN aircraft they have committed real $$ to, and known Amazon demand for only ONE. We do know UPS is still waiting for one more from ATSG, and that another customer wants at least one, but ATSG isn't dumb enough to think they can place 8 more freighters in a year without being aware of some pretty-specific expected demand for them.

The two ex-ANA-Cargo planes are BCFs, but they are the only ones I know of in the CAM fleet; ATSG has always used IAI/Bedek to do conversions on 767s.



So, what do you think, will Amazon choose to source any of the 763's that seem likely to be removed from various airlines fleets? It would seem like a pretty big decision to me.


Since ATSG (and by extent Amazon) already had the entire ex-AA fleet wrapped up and planned fo over hte next few years, I really doubt any of these other retirements will be more than a blip on the radar. Check back in 3 years.
The last of the famous international playboys
 
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ottergoose
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Fri May 08, 2020 7:38 pm

Have been enjoying the running commentary in lurk mode here, thanks everyone.

Seems there are a few folks here looped in pretty well with Sun Country; should we expect to see the remaining nine aircraft make visits to MSP as they join the fleet, or should we expect them to go directly to where they'll be in service? Wanted to document the first arrival/departure of an SCX 738F, but timing didn't cooperate.
 
sunking737
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Fri May 08, 2020 7:59 pm

Nick, They all have to go to PAE, first then, MSP to get final FAA blessing with the Govt Holy Water. N543RL is on the way from PVG I think to ANC..
"Don't believe it unless its parked on the ramp, or printed in the schedule...SUBJECT TO CHANGE"

I'm a SUNDUCK......Worked for RC & SY @ MSP
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Sat May 09, 2020 12:39 am

With my side interest in the PPE flights and the fleets supporting them, I have been watching WGN's efforts to get its second 747 into service. After doing a quick air-return to SHV on Saturday after departing for ANC, they scheduled a test flight tonight, followed by a scheduled later departure for ANC. Once again, the aircraft took off and promptly circled back to land. Total time in the air less than 20 minutes. At least they're trying.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Sat May 09, 2020 2:06 am

sunking737 wrote:
N543RL is on the way from PVG I think to ANC..


Yep. Landed at KIX from PVG at about 5:20pm EDT on Friday, May 8, 2020.
 
CX747
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Sat May 09, 2020 3:28 am

wjcandee wrote:
With my side interest in the PPE flights and the fleets supporting them, I have been watching WGN's efforts to get its second 747 into service. After doing a quick air-return to SHV on Saturday after departing for ANC, they scheduled a test flight tonight, followed by a scheduled later departure for ANC. Once again, the aircraft took off and promptly circled back to land. Total time in the air less than 20 minutes. At least they're trying.


Any idea what the issue or issues have been?
"History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or timid." D. Eisenhower
 
KFTG
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Sat May 09, 2020 5:28 am

United has retired the 767-400.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Sat May 09, 2020 6:23 am

KFTG wrote:
United has retired the 767-400.


Wow. Crazy. Unexpected, at least for me.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Sat May 09, 2020 6:26 am

CX747 wrote:
wjcandee wrote:
With my side interest in the PPE flights and the fleets supporting them, I have been watching WGN's efforts to get its second 747 into service. After doing a quick air-return to SHV on Saturday after departing for ANC, they scheduled a test flight tonight, followed by a scheduled later departure for ANC. Once again, the aircraft took off and promptly circled back to land. Total time in the air less than 20 minutes. At least they're trying.


Any idea what the issue or issues have been?


No clue. But the radar track of that flight looked like a landing at LGA -- tight turn into short final. Assuming it's accurate, it seemed like they wanted to get it down. Or maybe I'm assuming too much. The airport isn't on liveatc.net, so no luck finding out that way.
 
MO11
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Sat May 09, 2020 1:47 pm

Spacepope wrote:
Since ATSG (and by extent Amazon) already had the entire ex-AA fleet wrapped up and planned fo over hte next few years, I really doubt any of these other retirements will be more than a blip on the radar. Check back in 3 years.


Jetran bought N388AN on Monday and N393AN yesterday. Hasn't moved beyond that yet.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Sat May 09, 2020 5:38 pm

MO11 wrote:
Spacepope wrote:
Since ATSG (and by extent Amazon) already had the entire ex-AA fleet wrapped up and planned fo over hte next few years, I really doubt any of these other retirements will be more than a blip on the radar. Check back in 3 years.


Jetran bought N388AN on Monday and N393AN yesterday. Hasn't moved beyond that yet.


Is there usually a sale first to Jetran and then to ATSG, or have they bypassed (or done contemporaneously) the Jetran step in previous transactions?
 
sunking737
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Sat May 09, 2020 5:42 pm

"Don't believe it unless its parked on the ramp, or printed in the schedule...SUBJECT TO CHANGE"

I'm a SUNDUCK......Worked for RC & SY @ MSP
 
MO11
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Sat May 09, 2020 11:37 pm

wjcandee wrote:
MO11 wrote:
Spacepope wrote:
Since ATSG (and by extent Amazon) already had the entire ex-AA fleet wrapped up and planned fo over hte next few years, I really doubt any of these other retirements will be more than a blip on the radar. Check back in 3 years.


Jetran bought N388AN on Monday and N393AN yesterday. Hasn't moved beyond that yet.


Is there usually a sale first to Jetran and then to ATSG, or have they bypassed (or done contemporaneously) the Jetran step in previous transactions?


Always to Jetran. Usually a 3-7 day break between the two sales, but sometimes longer.
 
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Spacepope
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Sat May 09, 2020 11:45 pm

MO11 wrote:
Spacepope wrote:
Since ATSG (and by extent Amazon) already had the entire ex-AA fleet wrapped up and planned fo over hte next few years, I really doubt any of these other retirements will be more than a blip on the radar. Check back in 3 years.


Jetran bought N388AN on Monday and N393AN yesterday. Hasn't moved beyond that yet.


While the actual transfers are a dribble, the reports out earlier are that there is an agreement for nearly all of the retired frames so I don’t expect another company like UPS swooping in and converting say, the newest batch of -323s.
The last of the famous international playboys
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Sun May 10, 2020 12:00 am

Spacepope wrote:
MO11 wrote:
Spacepope wrote:
Since ATSG (and by extent Amazon) already had the entire ex-AA fleet wrapped up and planned fo over hte next few years, I really doubt any of these other retirements will be more than a blip on the radar. Check back in 3 years.


Jetran bought N388AN on Monday and N393AN yesterday. Hasn't moved beyond that yet.


While the actual transfers are a dribble, the reports out earlier are that there is an agreement for nearly all of the retired frames so I don’t expect another company like UPS swooping in and converting say, the newest batch of -323s.


Right. MO11 is kind enough to report on individual transactions. Jetran has a deal with AA to take all the retiring 767s, just like they in years past took several retired AA 763s that they did not resell whole. ATSG has an agreement with Jetran that gives ATSG the option to buy from Jetran essentially-all of the retiring AA 763s goiing forward.
 
sunking737
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Sun May 10, 2020 2:19 am

If my math is right, 16 more 767-300 just from AA...?? Do we dare add up any from DL/UA as possible stock??
"Don't believe it unless its parked on the ramp, or printed in the schedule...SUBJECT TO CHANGE"

I'm a SUNDUCK......Worked for RC & SY @ MSP
 
wjcandee
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Sun May 10, 2020 6:01 am

sunking737 wrote:
If my math is right, 16 more 767-300 just from AA...?? Do we dare add up any from DL/UA as possible stock??


Right. There are 19 retired-AA 767-300s currently-parked at ROW. All but 3 of them were parked on March 18 and afterwards. The three of the 19 that were already there were purchased by CAM in February and March, 2020, having been sitting there since 10/31/19, 11/4/19 and 1/6/20. CAM has not sent them to ILN for pre-conversion work and then to TLV to be converted yet.

MO11 now lets us know that Jetran has bought 388AA (the first one to be parked in March, parked 3/18/20) and 393AN (parked 3/27/20). AA sent two to the desert on 3/24 (i.e. in between 3/18 and 3/27), so Jetran isn't taking them in order of parking, if that makes any difference. It is likely that sometime relatively-soon, CAM will exercise its option and buy those two from Jetran.

So, to recap:
7 CAM 767-300s are in TLV. 4 of those are ex-AA and 3 are ex-LATAM.
3 CAM 767-300s are in ROW stored, all of which are ex-AA.
16 additional retired AA 767-300s are in ROW, which Jetran has agreed with AA to purchase, and on almost-all-of-which CAM has an option to purchase from Jetran.
TOTAL: 26 767-300s in conversion or available to convert.

Of the 7 in TLV, 2 are known to be going to UPS, and 1 is known to be going to Amazon this year. All three of those are basically-done, but have been hanging in TLV, I guess because TLV is moving slowly due to COVID.

In addition to all the above, there are 3 converted 767-300s at ILN which are all going to go to Amazon (2 ex-ANA, and N153DL), along with N360CM, which is currently being operated by ATI.

So that's what the mix looks like at the moment.
 
JayinKitsap
Posts: 2130
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Sun May 10, 2020 7:47 am

These planes coming from AA (or others), what level of maintenance is done on them: a short term where everything is run weekly, a mid term, or long term storage. I would think it be best to be flown to the airport the converter is at - so it doesn't have to remain flyable. But parking may be limited there.

How many can be converted a year? this seems like many years worth.
 
jeffrey0032j
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Re: Amazon Fleet Discussion - 2020

Sun May 10, 2020 8:51 am

JayinKitsap wrote:
How many can be converted a year? this seems like many years worth.

That would depend on whether CAM is willing to go for BCFs instead of single sourcing from Bedek.

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