Phosphorus wrote:

What gives? A cancellation of one of UPS frames? With two customers, options are limited, to put it mildly...

It's almost certainly the four Volga-Dnepr orders that have been cancelled, which would mean L/N 1558 is now an NTU (Not Taken Up). All four orders were added to Boeing's ASC 606 total so that means Boeing does not expect Volga-Dnepr to take delivery.

CX747 wrote:

2022 is still a little on the horizon. Do we have official word that no additional orders are to be taken?

It is possible no additional orders could be taken if the supplier network has ended production due to Boeing ending their contracts with them and some, like Triumph, selling off the tooling they need to make major parts (like fuselage panels).

Stitch wrote:

CX747 wrote:

2022 is still a little on the horizon. Do we have official word that no additional orders are to be taken?

It is possible no additional orders could be taken if the supplier network has ended production due to Boeing ending their contracts with them and some, like Triumph, selling off the tooling they need to make major parts (like fuselage panels).

Do we know if Triumph made all of the parts needed for the 4 cancelled frames before selling off all of their tooling? If so, even if the current LN1558 was one of those cancelled, that means that there are enough parts for 3 more NEW 748 orders, possibly a top up order for UPS? If anyone will take them, it has to be a freighter company that already has the 748F, as a fleet of 3 wouldn't make economical sense for anyone else, and nobody needs more passenger aircraft.

I wonder where LN1558 will end up if she's an NTU, possible storage at VCV if no buyer is found? I personally believe that Boeing could probably do a quick arrangement with a freighter company with deep pockets to have her operate for this time of heightened cargo demand, but that's just my uneducated guess/wishful thinking.

I know that last year on this thread people were floating the idea/rumor that LN1435 747-8i N828BA (currently stored at VCV, Lufthansa NTU) would be used to test technologies for the VC-25B program, have we got any more clarification or specific details on that 'program'? As the VC-25Bs are currently slated to be delivered in 2024 (that will probably slip, but what can you do), I would imagine that within the next year or so, any tests that would need to be carried out would slowly begin...

VCVSpotter wrote:

Do we know if Triumph made all of the parts needed for the 4 cancelled frames before selling off all of their tooling?

No we do not. My opinion is that Boeing only ordered the parts they needed to make the remaining UPS frames.

VCVSpotter wrote:

If so, even if the current LN1558 was one of those cancelled, that means that there are enough parts for 3 more NEW 748 orders...

I believe LN1558 was the frame ordered by Volga-Dnepr UK Ltd on 29 November 2017 so it would have had it's major components ordered earlier.

Volga-Dnepr UK Ltd then subsequently placed a single order on 18 December 2018 and three more on 29 December 2018. I personally am of the opinion that Boeing and Triumph had already placed their final supplier orders so Boeing booked these as speculative orders they either felt would never be fulfilled or would be fulfilled by UPS taking less frames then they had on order (in other words, Boeing would have been betting UPS would not want all their on-order frames).

This is why I do not believe Boeing can only build the remaining frames UPS currently has on order and cannot accept any new orders unless UPS reduces their existing outstanding orders.

Stitch wrote:

This is why I do not believe Boeing can only build the remaining frames UPS currently has on order and cannot accept any new orders unless UPS reduces their existing outstanding orders.

Sad to hear but probably the most realistic view of the situation. Thank you for your insight

VCVSpotter wrote:

I wonder where LN1558 will end up if she's an NTU, possible storage at VCV if no buyer is found?

Unless Volga-Dnepr UK was financing the frame out of their own pocket, it could become the property of the financing company considering how far along it was, so there would have been a fair bit of progress payments made and they may want to make the final payments rather then risk losing it due to payment default.

Another option would be it owned by Boeing who will then either lease it via Boeing Capital or work to place it with an existing 747-8F operator.

The 747's fuselage supplier has shut down. It's impossible to imagine a scenario in which Boeing picks up enough orders to make building the fuselages itself, or bootstrapping another supplier, worth it.

Edit: I didn't notice there was a page 2, and I see that's already been covered.

All in all, it appears that the fundamental questions, at this point, are:
1) who's cancellation of 4 frames was it (all Volga-Dnepr, or?)?
2) are there indeed 17 Triumph-built shipsets -- enough to fulfill all orders as of March 1, 2020, in existence? if not, how many there are?
The rest can be figured out, from there.

If it's "yes VD, yes 17", there is then already 1 whitetail, and three more shipsets.
Then, E-4 replacement with four 747-8 derivative planes suddenly looks feasible, for example.
Alternatively, the white-tail could be sold off to the highest bidder, should opportunistic interest emerge for new cargo capacity.

Hopefully there is still the opportunity to build more 747s. UPS was rumored to have purchased more beyond the 28 announced but this news wouldn't seem to support this.

UPS757Pilot wrote:

Hopefully there is still the opportunity to build more 747s. UPS was rumored to have purchased more beyond the 28 announced but this news wouldn't seem to support this.

Consensus appears to be "no opportunity", beyond whatever amount of shipsets, built by Triumph Group, before shutting down the factory, and auctioning the equipment off.
Of course, "impossible is nothing", and if a customer is ready to pay for re-birth of the entire supply chain, plus a hefty profit margin to make the effort worthwhile, it would be considered (we are heading towards a very difficult economy, depression possibly; so airframers would want money). At those price points, however, new-build 777F is postulated to be feasible for most users.

L/N 1559, the next "Queen mother", 747-8F for UPS on the Everett flight line, May 10th 2020.





Original uploaded by Matt Cawby at twitter, see : https://twitter.com/mattcawby/status/12 ... 6411095040

Aircraft data : L/N 1559, 747-8F, RC685, UPS, serial number 65785, N621UP

If they only need to build the UPS order, I speculate that the last 12 will be LN 1560 to LN 1571, if all registrations are available the last Boeing 747 might be the 1571th, registered N633UP. Or is this too soon?

MEA-707 wrote:

If they only need to build the UPS order, I speculate that the last 12 will be LN 1560 to LN 1571, if all registrations are available the last Boeing 747 might be the 1571th, registered N633UP. Or is this too soon?

We still have no reliable info if the four cancelled Volga Dnepr 747-8F aircraft are included in the already in advance built fuselage Triumph (former Vought) fuselage parts or not ?

So any 747 line number speculation is premature.

Video of the first (B1) flight of N621UP towards Spokane at May 29th 2020, see : https://twitter.com/JenSchuld/status/12 ... 8763156480

And : https://flightaware.com/live/flight/BOE ... /KPAE/KGEG

N621UP, KPAE, May 29th 2020


Original uploaded by Jennifer Schuld at twitter, see : https://twitter.com/JenSchuld/status/12 ... 5378876417

Aircraft data : L/N 1559, 747-8F, RC685, UPS, serial number 65785, N621UP, roll out date before May 10th, F/F May 29th 2020.

Stitch wrote:

VCVSpotter wrote:

I wonder where LN1558 will end up if she's an NTU, possible storage at VCV if no buyer is found?

Unless Volga-Dnepr UK was financing the frame out of their own pocket, it could become the property of the financing company considering how far along it was, so there would have been a fair bit of progress payments made and they may want to make the final payments rather then risk losing it due to payment default.

Another option would be it owned by Boeing who will then either lease it via Boeing Capital or work to place it with an existing 747-8F operator.

Key Russian air cargo customer sues Boeing over widebodies, highlighting how coronavirus shifted market

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/boeing-aerospace/key-russian-air-cargo-customer-sues-boeing-over-widebodies-highlighting-how-coronavirus-shifted-market/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=article_inset_1.1

UA947 wrote:

Stitch wrote:

VCVSpotter wrote:

I wonder where LN1558 will end up if she's an NTU, possible storage at VCV if no buyer is found?

Unless Volga-Dnepr UK was financing the frame out of their own pocket, it could become the property of the financing company considering how far along it was, so there would have been a fair bit of progress payments made and they may want to make the final payments rather then risk losing it due to payment default.

Another option would be it owned by Boeing who will then either lease it via Boeing Capital or work to place it with an existing 747-8F operator.

Key Russian air cargo customer sues Boeing over widebodies, highlighting how coronavirus shifted market

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/boeing-aerospace/key-russian-air-cargo-customer-sues-boeing-over-widebodies-highlighting-how-coronavirus-shifted-market/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=article_inset_1.1

Well that's very "odd".

As a non-lawyer, I can't see that Volga-Dnepr has much of a case. They told Boeing they didn't want the planes, then they're surprised when Boeing tries to sell their frames on.

scbriml wrote:

Well that's very "odd".

As a non-lawyer, I can't see that Volga-Dnepr has much of a case. They told Boeing they didn't want the planes, then they're surprised when Boeing tries to sell their frames on.

Exactly, but if you were a lawyer, there could be 1000s of cases!

If Volga Dnepr officially cancelled the four 747-8F (plus 3x 777F) in Jan-Feb 2020 and 6-8 weeks later it wants to reverse this already signed descision, it's up to Boeing to sell the aircraft to other customers or to reinstate the contract with Volga Dnepr (even under different terms)
IMHO Boeing can sell these freighter aircraft to the highest bidder in the post covid-19 world.
Major cargo airlines (Cargolux, Atlas Air etc.) would be glad to take some extra freighters at short notice.

Note : the delivery (scheduled delivery Feb 28th) of L/N 1558, painted in ABC livery, has been (last minute) cancelled, probably after the contract cancellation in Mid February and has been re-registered N784TD at March 24th.

Aircraft Data : L/N 1558, 747-8F, RC610, AirBridgeCargo , serial number 63784, future VQ-BIO (N6009F), roll out before January 27th 2020, F/F February 13th 2020, Ferried to Portland at February 16th for paint, returned at February 25th 2020. Aircraft was used for Electro Magnetic Interference testing of the GEnx-2B engine ( for future VC-25B aircraft ?). Aircraft has been re-registered N784TD at March 24th 2020. Used for ILS flight testing of the Collins GLU-2100 Multimode Receiver. Still at the Everett flight line.

The Puget Sound Business Journal is reporting that Boeing has re-sold L/N 1558 (Volga-Dnepr NTU in AirBridgeCargo colors) to an unidentified new customer. The rumor is that UPS is the new customer and that they will also be taking the three remaining Volga-Dnepr NTUs that have not yet been assembled as well as possibly up to three additional frames on top of that for a total of seven.

https://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/new ... demic.html

Stitch wrote:

The Puget Sound Business Journal is reporting that Boeing has re-sold L/N 1558 (Volga-Dnepr NTU in AirBridgeCargo colors) to an unidentified new customer. The rumor is that UPS is the new customer and that they will also be taking the three remaining Volga-Dnepr NTUs that have not yet been assembled as well as possibly up to three additional frames on top of that for a total of seven.

https://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/new ... demic.html

Anybody know how this is possible? Let's say Triumph made the parts for the 3 Volga-Dnepr NTUs. That's still 3 more additional frames that weren't made before Triumph decided to sell everything off. The running narrative on this forum has always been (and I have indeed contributed to it) that Triumph's decision to stop production meant the end of the 747 unless a MAJOR order was placed, one that was big and pricey enough to offset the costs of starting production again. Three is hardly that order. Can anyone shed some light on how this is possible? Much appreciated.

EDIT: Stitch, I just saw your post on the other thread (Internal tussle as Boeing weighs future of 747), so I guess I am fielding this question out to everyone.

Weird. I thought the 747 had a last call and was secretly dead the last two years? You mean tell me that wasn’t true????

VCVSpotter wrote:

I know that last year on this thread people were floating the idea/rumor that LN1435 747-8i N828BA (currently stored at VCV, Lufthansa NTU) would be used to test technologies for the VC-25B program, have we got any more clarification or specific details on that 'program'? As the VC-25Bs are currently slated to be delivered in 2024 (that will probably slip, but what can you do), I would imagine that within the next year or so, any tests that would need to be carried out would slowly begin...

1435s future use has only ever been forum speculation but has since made it into numerous news articles and blog sites as fact that it will be the "VC-25B" testbed . It is still in Boeing's inventory.

L/N 1559, N621UP was ferried from Portland to Paine Field at June 8th after paint.
See : https://flightaware.com/live/flight/BOE ... /KPDX/KPAE

L/N 1558, N784TD (ABC, VQ-BIO ntu) was ferried towards Portland at June 8th for re-paint into a new -UPS- livery ?
See : https://flightaware.com/live/flight/BOE ... /KPAE/KPDX

747classic wrote:

L/N 1559, N621UP was ferried from Portland to Paine Field at June 8th after paint.
See : https://flightaware.com/live/flight/BOE ... /KPDX/KPAE

L/N 1558, N784TD (ABC, VQ-BIO ntu) was ferried towards Portland at June 8th for re-paint into a new -UPS- livery ?
See : https://flightaware.com/live/flight/BOE ... /KPAE/KPDX

UPS 748F N621UP seen arriving back at PAE after painting at PDX



https://twitter.com/royalscottking/stat ... 02918?s=20

747classic wrote:

L/N 1558, N784TD (ABC, VQ-BIO ntu) was ferried towards Portland at June 8th for re-paint into a new -UPS- livery ?

Is this fact or mere speculation about the repaint and UPS? Boeing is utilising PDX as a temporary storage location for some heavies. Do you have proof it is inside the paint hangar and being repainted?

RobK wrote:

747classic wrote:

L/N 1558, N784TD (ABC, VQ-BIO ntu) was ferried towards Portland at June 8th for re-paint into a new -UPS- livery ?

Is this fact or mere speculation about the repaint and UPS? Boeing is utilising PDX as a temporary storage location for some heavies. Do you have proof it is inside the paint hangar and being repainted?

He does not need proof since the post clearly says " for re-paint into a new -UPS- livery QUESTION MARK". Patience is a virtue......

VCVSpotter wrote:

Stitch wrote:

The Puget Sound Business Journal is reporting that Boeing has re-sold L/N 1558 (Volga-Dnepr NTU in AirBridgeCargo colors) to an unidentified new customer. The rumor is that UPS is the new customer and that they will also be taking the three remaining Volga-Dnepr NTUs that have not yet been assembled as well as possibly up to three additional frames on top of that for a total of seven.

https://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/new ... demic.html

Anybody know how this is possible? Let's say Triumph made the parts for the 3 Volga-Dnepr NTUs. That's still 3 more additional frames that weren't made before Triumph decided to sell everything off. The running narrative on this forum has always been (and I have indeed contributed to it) that Triumph's decision to stop production meant the end of the 747 unless a MAJOR order was placed, one that was big and pricey enough to offset the costs of starting production again. Three is hardly that order. Can anyone shed some light on how this is possible? Much appreciated.

.

Perhaps they anticipated a few small top up orders and ordered more Triumph parts. Either they would even be prepared to build a few white tails or had a deal that UPS would take them if noone else would. Wouldn't surprise me if they have stocks already til LN 1580 or higher. Or 1577 if they only build the above extra 6 for UPS.

Boeing 747 -8F 63784 1558 N784TD Boeing ferried 08jun20 PAE-PDX, for paint, for UPS - United Parcel

https://www.skyliner-aviation.de/regdb. ... av4&page=3

747classic wrote:

L/N 1558, N784TD (ABC, VQ-BIO ntu) was ferried towards Portland at June 8th for re-paint into a new -UPS- livery ?

RobK wrote:

Is this fact or mere speculation about the repaint and UPS? Boeing is utilising PDX as a temporary storage location for some heavies. Do you have proof it is inside the paint hangar and being repainted?

Boeing this morning posted their May 2020 orders and these include a new 747-8F order for UPS so that's confirmation they are the customer for the Volga-Dnepr NTU.

How is the backlog now ?

danipawa wrote:

How is the backlog now ?

As part of the agreement in taking the Volga-Dnepr NTU, UPS reduced their firm order by one frame. So the "firm" 747-8F backlog stands at 12 frames, all for UPS.

I commented on this here - viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1446803 - so let us not pollute this thread with discussion about possible new orders or backlog changes or such. The thread I linked is already discussing these topics.

747classic wrote:

L/N 1558, N784TD (ABC, VQ-BIO ntu) was ferried towards Portland at June 8th for re-paint into a new -UPS- livery ?
See : https://flightaware.com/live/flight/BOE ... /KPAE/KPDX

See Matt Cawby's Paine Field blog of June 8th : http://kpae.blogspot.com/2020/06/paine- ... une-8.html
Detailed picture of N784TD : http://www.paineairport.com/kpae18395t.htm

First picture of L/N 1558 with temporary registration N784TD in the A-net photo data base.

N784TD, arriving at Portland, June 8th 2020

UPS 748F N621UP returning to PAE after a test flight to GEG (10 Jun)



https://twitter.com/JenSchuld/status/12 ... 66209?s=20

The Volga-Dnepr VQ-BIO > N784TD will become N624UP under UPS' ownership and the transaction is confirmed. Msn and tab will remain unchanged (hope that helps your records, Peter).

RobK wrote:

The Volga-Dnepr VQ-BIO > N784TD will become N624UP under UPS' ownership and the transaction is confirmed. Msn and tab will remain unchanged (hope that helps your records, Peter).

Thx for the quick answer, so L/N 1558 will become : 747-8F, RC610, AirBridgeCargo (NTU) , UPS, serial number 63784, (VQ-BIO > N6009F > N784TD) N624UP.

Regards,
Peter

747classic wrote:

RobK wrote:

The Volga-Dnepr VQ-BIO > N784TD will become N624UP under UPS' ownership and the transaction is confirmed. Msn and tab will remain unchanged (hope that helps your records, Peter).

Thx for the quick answer, so L/N 1558 will become : 747-8F, RC610, AirBridgeCargo (NTU) , UPS, serial number 63784, (VQ-BIO > N6009F > N784TD) N624UP.

Regards,
Peter

To be strictly correct it's Volga-Dnepr UK Ltd ntu. AirBridgeCargo is just the division it's operated by. The reg sequence began with N6009F unpainted, then VQ-BIO for the return from PDX, then N6009F EWA flights, then to N784TD.

RobK wrote:

747classic wrote:

RobK wrote:

The Volga-Dnepr VQ-BIO > N784TD will become N624UP under UPS' ownership and the transaction is confirmed. Msn and tab will remain unchanged (hope that helps your records, Peter).

Thx for the quick answer, so L/N 1558 will become : 747-8F, RC610, AirBridgeCargo (NTU) , UPS, serial number 63784, (VQ-BIO > N6009F > N784TD) N624UP.

Regards,
Peter

To be strictly correct it's Volga-Dnepr UK Ltd ntu. AirBridgeCargo is just the division it's operated by. The reg sequence began with N6009F unpainted, then VQ-BIO for the return from PDX, then N6009F EWA flights, then to N784TD.

One of those tidbits of information that will make someone scratch their head 15 years from now! Wait, this UPS 747 started life with a VQ tail number?!?!?

UPS 748F N621UP returns to PAE after another test flight

Video of takeoff

https://twitter.com/JenSchuld/status/12 ... 10144?s=20



https://twitter.com/JenSchuld/status/12 ... 04672?s=20

UPS 748F N621UP has been delivered, PAE-SDF (22 Jun)







https://twitter.com/JenSchuld/status/12 ... 93376?s=20

qf789 wrote:

UPS 748F N621UP has been delivered, PAE-SDF (22 Jun)

Delivery flight L/N1559, N621UP from Paine Field (PAE) towards Louisville (SDF) with callsign 5X9105, see : https://flightaware.com/live/flight/N62 ... /KPAE/KSDF

CX747 wrote:

RobK wrote:

747classic wrote:

Thx for the quick answer, so L/N 1558 will become : 747-8F, RC610, AirBridgeCargo (NTU) , UPS, serial number 63784, (VQ-BIO > N6009F > N784TD) N624UP.

Regards,
Peter

To be strictly correct it's Volga-Dnepr UK Ltd ntu. AirBridgeCargo is just the division it's operated by. The reg sequence began with N6009F unpainted, then VQ-BIO for the return from PDX, then N6009F EWA flights, then to N784TD.

One of those tidbits of information that will make someone scratch their head 15 years from now! Wait, this UPS 747 started life with a VQ tail number?!?!?

In earlier days, many MD-11s and 727s had interesting pasts before ending up with UPS. What's at least as interesting is the next Air Force One was formerly ordered by a Russian airline.

qf789 wrote:

UPS 748F N621UP has been delivered, PAE-SDF (22 Jun)

https://twitter.com/JenSchuld/status/12 ... 93376?s=20

Beautiful images!

I was the dispatcher for UPS9105 yesterday, it was an amazing feeling as it was my first time doing one of these Boeing reposition flights, bringing a brand new plane home to Louisville.

I might even frame the flight release


Regards,
Joseph

A flight plan has been filed for L/N 1558, ex Volga-Dnepr (VQ-BIO) from Portland (PDX) towards Paine Field (PAE) after paint in UPS livery with registration N624UP.
Callsign will be BOE610, see : https://flightaware.com/live/flight/BOE ... /KPDX/KPAE

N784TD (future registration N624UP, see nose door), arriving at Paine Field (PAE) from Portland (PDX), after repaint in UPS livery, June 26th 2020


Original uploaded by Leland Smidt, see : https://flightaware.com/photos/view/109 ... ate/page/1

N784TD in UPS livery in the A-net data base.

Great !

747classic wrote:

firstview wrote:

Saudi Royal flight may be taking LN1446 after all. AMAC Aerospace in BSL recently signed a contract for the 747's completion with a picture of the aircraft in the announcement: https://www.amacaerospace.com/euroairpo ... ch-2020-2/

In AMAC's announcment the following is stated : "The cabin of the BBJ 747-8 will be re-configured and the whole interior will be brought to the latest level."

However L/N1446 has no cabin installed and is stored in "green status" at Basel.

So, probably another 747-8/BBJ must be involved.

The only AMAC converted 747-8/BBJ has been L/N 1449, A7-HBJ , Qatar Amiri flight

Hi 747Classic. I wonder if AMAC is updating the other Qatar Amiri 747-8 BBJ, A7-HHF LN1495 that shows as stored? Same customer...

The next UPS 747-8F, N622UP emerged at the Everett Flight Line.



Original uploaded by Matt Cawby at twitter, see : https://twitter.com/mattcawby/status/12 ... 0307271681

Aircraft data : L/N 1560, 747-8F, RC686, UPS, serial number 65784, N622UP , roll-out date July 06th 2020