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Raleigh/Durham Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Dec 31, 2019 3:17 pm

Welcome to the Raleigh/Durham Aviation Thread - 2020. Please add your comments below

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ERJ170
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Re: Raleigh/Durham Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Jan 01, 2020 4:18 pm

New decade. New possibilities. So what does the future hold.

Will DL grow RDU?
Will F9 grow RDU?
Will any international carriers land at RDU?
Will a commuter airline come to bring flights to surrounding airports?
Where will the domestic growth be?
How will Vision 2040 look at the end of 2020?
Will the border wall around RDU be built?
Who will come out as the owner of the new large hangar?
What can RDU to make it stand out against its peers?
Will we actually see the 737-8 (I’m dropping MAX) at RDU?
Will RDU add more local venues and restaurants to its lineup (like a cookout for for real for real BBQ joint)?
Will Amazon cargo make it to RDU?

What will happen this year? Any premonitions or educated wild guesses? I’m interested in knowing.
Aiming High and going far..
 
jbwhite99
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Re: Raleigh/Durham Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Jan 01, 2020 5:19 pm

I am guessing that the growth won't happen until the new gates in Terminal 1 open - then there will be space in Terminal 2.

The other thing is that if Delta is not 100% full, would they transit passengers through RDU? I remember seeing some posts early in 2019 that said some folks did change planes here. Not a hub, mind you - but a focus city (I'm thinking CVG) that has folks come through, and see a fairly new (can't believe it is 11 years old - at least C-Concourse) airport that is easily navigable.

This quarry thing needs to get settled (including the fence) - I live in Morrisville, and people were campaigning on stopping the quarry. I think it is necessary - since RDUAA needs the money to build the new runway.

Your point about local flavor is good. What would be an interesting addition would be if the Angus Barn opened something. It is obviously close, and they do have catering at the American Tobacco Factory in Durham. But having a Cookout at the airport sounds like a great idea.

Look at all of the service that WN has added to BNA - that's the airline we need to see grow here.
 
jplatts
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Re: Raleigh/Durham Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Jan 01, 2020 5:28 pm

ERJ170 wrote:
New decade. New possibilities. So what does the future hold.

Will DL grow RDU?
Will F9 grow RDU?
Where will the domestic growth be?
Will the border wall around RDU be built?
What can RDU to make it stand out against its peers?

What will happen this year? Any premonitions or educated wild guesses? I’m interested in knowing.


AS adding RDU-PDX nonstop service is a possibility with (a) PDX being one of the major tech destinations on the West Coast that isn't currently served nonstop from RDU and (b) PDX being one of the top destinations that isn't currently served nonstop from RDU.

NK adding RDU-DFW, RDU-LAS, and RDU-TPA nonstop service might happen as NK had previously stated that it wanted to add additional nonstop routes out of RDU.

While WN dropped RDU-SJC nonstop service due to the plane shortage that WN was facing due to the 737 MAX grounding, WN re-adding RDU-SJC nonstop service might be a possibility once WN has more planes in its fleet since (a) WN was able to get over 90% load factors on the RDU-SJC nonstop flights that it operated in 2019, (b) there are some business travelers in Silicon Valley and the San Francisco Bay Area who prefer to fly on WN over DL, AA, or ULCC's, and (c) there are tech companies with a significant presence in both Silicon Valley and the Research Triangle such as Cisco and Qualcomm.

WN adding RDU-SAN nonstop service is a possibility with (a) SAN being one of the top destinations not currently served nonstop from RDU and (b) San Diego-based Qualcomm having a campus near RDU Airport.

In addition to RDU-SJC or RDU-SAN, other nonstop routes that could be added by WN out of RDU include RDU-LAX, RDU-OAK, and RDU-SAT. WN adding nonstop service to CLE, CMH, BDL, or IND out of RDU might also be possibilities if DL drops RDU-CLE, RDU-CMH, RDU-BDL, or RDU-IND nonstop service.

DL adding RDU-MKE nonstop service is a possibility with MKE being one of the top Midwestern markets not currently served nonstop from RDU and DL already serving ORD, CVG, CLE, CMH, DTW, IND, and MSP in the Midwest nonstop from RDU.

Other nonstop routes that could possibly be added by DL out of RDU include RDU-DFW, RDU-SDF, RDU-MEM, RDU-ROC, RDU-SAN, RDU-SFO, RDU-SJC, and RDU-PBI.
 
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Re: Raleigh/Durham Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Jan 01, 2020 6:09 pm

jbwhite99 wrote:
The other thing is that if Delta is not 100% full, would they transit passengers through RDU?


I've seen plenty of fare rules where a domestic connection is required (no DL non-stops) that permit an RDU connection. If DL has excess inventory on RDU flights in the cheapest fare buckets (say, LUTXVE) you might expect them to favor RDU. If cheap bucket inventory is comparable to ATL/MSP/DTW connections, expect them to favor those connecting points with bigger aircraft having lower CASM.
 
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casinterest
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Re: Raleigh/Durham Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 02, 2020 3:49 pm

Having flown international a lot, I would hope for a carrier to add a new connection out of RDU, but with IAD, PHL, EWR, JFK, BOS all on the route to Europe, it is easier for the carriers to connect traffic until a critical mass is reached. It would be nice if Delta would add a route through Amsterdam or Paris at a later flight time ( 9 or 10 pm out of RDU ) to allow for later European connections to points east, and allow for better connection times running west ( say a 4 or 5 P.M flight out of Paris or Amsterdam).

On the domestic side, I expect Jetblue and Spirit to really try to grow if the Max re certification keeps getting extended.

AUS, MCO,SNA for Jetblue seem to be easy additions . For Spirit, DFW, and LAS should be easy as well.


Delta is going to grow through capacity for awhile I would expect, and they may add more flights to SLC, BOS, and Detroit, as they work to counter the Low cost carriers.
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Re: Raleigh/Durham Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 02, 2020 4:01 pm

How much true space is there to expand at RDU? Even if NK,G4, and F9 move, that's only adding 3 gates. There are 3 currently not in use.. so 6 gates spread throughout the Terminal. I foresee this being a potential hindrance for a while.
Aiming High and going far..
 
RDUDDJI
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Re: Raleigh/Durham Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 02, 2020 4:35 pm

jbwhite99 wrote:
The other thing is that if Delta is not 100% full, would they transit passengers through RDU?


They already offer some connections through RDU and they have connections every day (prob less than 100 total/day judging by airport statistics, but it's hard to tell since others offer some connections too (WN, F9)). With most of the DL P2P flying being 1x-2x daily, there aren't a ton of (good) connecting possibilities.
Sometimes we don't realize the good times when we're in them
 
RDUDDJI
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Re: Raleigh/Durham Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 02, 2020 4:45 pm

casinterest wrote:
Having flown international a lot, I would hope for a carrier to add a new connection out of RDU, but with IAD, PHL, EWR, JFK, BOS all on the route to Europe, it is easier for the carriers to connect traffic until a critical mass is reached. It would be nice if Delta would add a route through Amsterdam or Paris at a later flight time ( 9 or 10 pm out of RDU ) to allow for later European connections to points east, and allow for better connection times running west ( say a 4 or 5 P.M flight out of Paris or Amsterdam).

On the domestic side, I expect Jetblue and Spirit to really try to grow if the Max re certification keeps getting extended.

AUS, MCO,SNA for Jetblue seem to be easy additions . For Spirit, DFW, and LAS should be easy as well.


Delta is going to grow through capacity for awhile I would expect, and they may add more flights to SLC, BOS, and Detroit, as they work to counter the Low cost carriers.


I share your hope to have a third European option but also agree that geography/local population makes it less likely. AMS on DL/KL would be awesome (they could axe CDG for this and I'd be happy). Or RDU-FRA/MUC on LH I would think makes sense so the *A can try to capture more of the Int'l traffic from RDU.

Regarding the West: DL is adding a second RDU-SLC this year. I also think I saw that UA was going to go 3x RDU-SFO and AS is going 2x RDU-SEA. If you'd have told me 10 (or even 5) years ago that we'd have 3x daily RDU-SEA (2 AS. 1 DL), I would have lollered... :D
Sometimes we don't realize the good times when we're in them
 
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casinterest
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Re: Raleigh/Durham Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 02, 2020 5:18 pm

RDUDDJI wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Having flown international a lot, I would hope for a carrier to add a new connection out of RDU, but with IAD, PHL, EWR, JFK, BOS all on the route to Europe, it is easier for the carriers to connect traffic until a critical mass is reached. It would be nice if Delta would add a route through Amsterdam or Paris at a later flight time ( 9 or 10 pm out of RDU ) to allow for later European connections to points east, and allow for better connection times running west ( say a 4 or 5 P.M flight out of Paris or Amsterdam).

On the domestic side, I expect Jetblue and Spirit to really try to grow if the Max re certification keeps getting extended.

AUS, MCO,SNA for Jetblue seem to be easy additions . For Spirit, DFW, and LAS should be easy as well.


Delta is going to grow through capacity for awhile I would expect, and they may add more flights to SLC, BOS, and Detroit, as they work to counter the Low cost carriers.


I share your hope to have a third European option but also agree that geography/local population makes it less likely. AMS on DL/KL would be awesome (they could axe CDG for this and I'd be happy). Or RDU-FRA/MUC on LH I would think makes sense so the *A can try to capture more of the Int'l traffic from RDU.

Regarding the West: DL is adding a second RDU-SLC this year. I also think I saw that UA was going to go 3x RDU-SFO and AS is going 2x RDU-SEA. If you'd have told me 10 (or even 5) years ago that we'd have 3x daily RDU-SEA (2 AS. 1 DL), I would have lollered... :D



RDU is growing tremendously. I saw yesterday in an article that the current estimate is 14.1 Million for 2019. That is 1.3 Million more than 2018, and an over 10% growth rate.

I think we will get the third European flight sooner rather than later.

ERJ170 wrote:
New decade. New possibilities. So what does the future hold.


Will RDU add more local venues and restaurants to its lineup (like a cookout for for real for real BBQ joint)?
.


Here is an article from WRAL today.


https://www.wral.com/local-breweries-he ... /18864169/

Cary's Bond Brothers Beer Company and Raleigh Taproom, which is from Raleigh Brewing Company, will open Saturday. Raleigh Brewing is also planning to open Raleigh Brewing Tavern in Terminal 1 later this year.


"Also opening this weekend is Cantina Grill, which will offer a diverse menu from breakfast through dinner, in addition to local beer and spirits.

Three more concepts are set to open in Terminal 2 by mid-January. Those options include Deli & Co., which will serve healthy, organic options, Rush Bowls, which will feature smoothies and bowls with fresh fruit, and Wow Bae, a fast-casual Asian concept serving steamed dumplings, rice bowls and Bao"


Better article from N&O about who is getting kicked out , but N&O is behind a paywall for most.

https://www.newsobserver.com/news/local ... 00488.html

Gordon Biersch is being replaced by Bond Brothers
Cantina is replacing Carolina Ale House
Raleigh Tap Room is replacing Carolina Vintages
Deli &Co is replacing Brookwood Farms
Rush is replacing flavors
Wow Bao is replacing A&W All American.

Wouldn't it be better if Aviator Brewing was doing the taproom and using their new smokehouse offerings?

ERJ170 wrote:
How much true space is there to expand at RDU? Even if NK,G4, and F9 move, that's only adding 3 gates. There are 3 currently not in use.. so 6 gates spread throughout the Terminal. I foresee this being a potential hindrance for a while.


Terminal 2 has 36 gates, and each gate can offer 7-8 flights per day. if there are 6 gates open, then there could be 42-48 new flights available for expansion.
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Re: Raleigh/Durham Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Jan 04, 2020 5:55 pm

So.. it’s the beginning of the new decade.. what are some of your predictions for 2020? I’ll start with mine.

AS will stay status quo at 2x SEA.
AA to add BOS, LHR to go 787
G4 to either stay stagnant or exit completely
F9 to add 3 more routes less than daily
NK to add 2 routes, daily
DL to upgauge DCA, LGA, AUS and TPA to larger RJ/220/717 and add 2 routes
WestJet to add YYZ
UA to maintain status quo
B6 to maintain status quo
AC to upgauge YUL and YYZ to E75 during high season

New Priority Club to open in T1

Growth at 7.5%

New Entrants: WestJet, Amazon Cargo
Exits: Allegient
Aiming High and going far..
 
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Re: Raleigh/Durham Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Jan 04, 2020 6:05 pm

ERJ170 wrote:
So.. it’s the beginning of the new decade.. what are some of your predictions for 2020? I’ll start with mine.

AS will stay status quo at 2x SEA.
AA to add BOS, LHR to go 787
G4 to either stay stagnant or exit completely
F9 to add 3 more routes less than daily
NK to add 2 routes, daily
DL to upgauge DCA, LGA, AUS and TPA to larger RJ/220/717 and add 2 routes
WestJet to add YYZ
UA to maintain status quo
B6 to maintain status quo
AC to upgauge YUL and YYZ to E75 during high season

New Priority Club to open in T1

Growth at 7.5%

New Entrants: WestJet, Amazon Cargo
Exits: Allegient


G4 leaving the market would be surprising.

Who knows what F9 will do. Even if they add routes, it's almost certain they'll drop something, too.
 
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ERJ170
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Re: Raleigh/Durham Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Jan 15, 2020 2:21 am

Newest news.. AA to BOS 5x daily. Covered in another thread. First new route of the year.
Aiming High and going far..
 
Indy
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Re: Raleigh/Durham Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Jan 15, 2020 3:45 am

ERJ170 wrote:
New decade. New possibilities. So what does the future hold.

Will DL grow RDU?


Honestly, I hope not. My DL experience out of RDU has been anything but pleasant. It is a poorly managed station. You don't want unfriendly people working the Sky Priority check in lane. It is crap when you are trying to check in and the agent is busy texting. I had a brand new set of luggage that looks 10 years old now. It looked that way after one dang trip. The bag was all scratched up and covered in some sort of orange filth. Looks like the area dirt. Then there is the agents that can't seem to operate a jet bridge, ones that don't show up to operate the jet bridge, or baggage handlers that cannot get bags out on time. I've gotten the Skymiles bonus a couple of times this year at RDU because of late bags. I didn't fly a ton of times out of RDU in 2019 but most experiences with Delta were not good. The general feeling I get from the DL staff at RDU is that they just don't care. I figured it would be a well run operation for DL but it really isn't. Anyway, that is just my take of the whole DL at RDU situation.
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jbwhite99
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Re: Raleigh/Durham Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 17, 2020 12:41 am

https://twitter.com/RDUAirport/status/1 ... 1654761472

14.2 million total passengers flew through RDU in 2019
600K enplaned passengers in December (up 14%), a new record for the month
Seven months in 2019 saw double-digit growth

and LaFarm bakery will be opening at some point soon too!
 
TimeForFlight
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Re: Raleigh/Durham Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 17, 2020 3:51 pm

RDU's Facebook post this morning indicates Delta is expanding MIA nonstop service to year-round twice daily. I haven't seen a DL announcement about this, and the timing feels like a swipe at AA, probably in response to the 5x AA RDU-BOS frequency. (This is on top of DL's recent announcement that they are returning their focus to mid-continent hubs, which have been overlooked with the expansion of focus cities.)

DL will now operate regular frequencies to AA's ORD and MIA hubs. Next up DFW?


Update: Here's Delta's announcement.
 
RDUDDJI
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Re: Raleigh/Durham Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 17, 2020 5:25 pm

Indy wrote:

Honestly, I hope not. My DL experience out of RDU has been anything but pleasant. It is a poorly managed station. You don't want unfriendly people working the Sky Priority check in lane. It is crap when you are trying to check in and the agent is busy texting. I had a brand new set of luggage that looks 10 years old now. It looked that way after one dang trip. The bag was all scratched up and covered in some sort of orange filth. Looks like the area dirt. Then there is the agents that can't seem to operate a jet bridge, ones that don't show up to operate the jet bridge, or baggage handlers that cannot get bags out on time. I've gotten the Skymiles bonus a couple of times this year at RDU because of late bags. I didn't fly a ton of times out of RDU in 2019 but most experiences with Delta were not good. The general feeling I get from the DL staff at RDU is that they just don't care. I figured it would be a well run operation for DL but it really isn't. Anyway, that is just my take of the whole DL at RDU situation.


Totally agree about the sky prio experience and bag performance. Almost every time the sky prio line takes longer than the regular line. Thankfully I very rarely check bags so usually I don’t have to deal with that. My other complaint is that about 50% of the flights I come in on don’t have a ramp crew at the gate to park them. IMO RDU has been a poorly managed DL station for years. I don’t know if it’s because they don’t have enough people or they just have lazy mgmt. I was hopeful that DL bringing mainline employees to the RDU ramp would help, but I haven’t been able to tell much of a difference.
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Re: Raleigh/Durham Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 17, 2020 9:42 pm

Interesting article on the projected 1-2B shortfall in funding over the next 2 decades.

https://www.wraltechwire.com/2020/01/17 ... solutions/

1. RDU has already reached the 2031 projected passenger levels and plans are needed to accommodate that growth.

The article suggests a possible Terminal 3 north of Terminal 2. Probably around the overnight Apron they are currently making .

Other items being looked at are landing fees, airport access fees, and a host of other items. Not all will be adopted, but the Airport is going to have to get creative as traffic grows.

The dangers is that a recession could set the airport back, or if fees go too high airlines and passengers may choose alternative airports (GSO, FAY, CLT, ROA).
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
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ERJ170
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Re: Raleigh/Durham Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 17, 2020 9:57 pm

Well, Delta upped MIA to 2x daily year round. But I don’t think this is to respond to AA BOS additions. I was really hoping for 3x DFW and Virgin 787 LHR service.. oh well.
Aiming High and going far..

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