SRQLOT wrote:

IWMBH wrote:

SRQLOT wrote:

Looks like they are gone.

Sad there was no announcements for last flight, but LOT is not sentimental to retirements like other airlines.
The 400 was in LOTs fleet for 27 years and as classics 28 years.


https://www.rynek-lotniczy.pl/mobile/lo ... -7690.html

According to Dutch news outlets the 3 -400's will be converted to freighters.

SP-LLE, SP-LLF and SP-LLG

https://www.luchtvaartnieuws.nl/nieuws/ ... tvliegtuig

Very nice that they will continue on flying. Looks like last LOT flight was KRK-WAW. I know these were leased like 99% of the fleet but I wish LOT would set up a museum in a corner of WAW and save/keep some of the oldies. My favorite 737 classic will always be the 500.

I think LOT is one of the only airlines that doesn't have a museum it favours and which its sometimes supplies with some recently retired aircraft.

In the recent interview CEO mentions opening this year of 8 new European routes from BUD. I think this is two more than already announced for this year (BRU, OTP, SOF, BEG, STR, PRG). We shall see. I remain astonished that they do not open anything to feed their BUD-JFK flight as O&D on this route cannot be expected to fill this plane alone, and in particular at decent fares.

https://businessinsider.com.pl/firmy/st ... ax/ptnhr92

artflyer wrote:

In the recent interview CEO mentions opening this year of 8 new European routes from BUD. I think this is two more than already announced for this year (BRU, OTP, SOF, BEG, STR, PRG). We shall see. I remain astonished that they do not open anything to feed their BUD-JFK flight as O&D on this route cannot be expected to fill this plane alone, and in particular at decent fares.

https://businessinsider.com.pl/firmy/st ... ax/ptnhr92

Maybe something was lost in translation, could it be they referred to 8 destinations in total which will be served from Budapest including Warsaw and Krakow?

Blerg wrote:

artflyer wrote:

In the recent interview CEO mentions opening this year of 8 new European routes from BUD. I think this is two more than already announced for this year (BRU, OTP, SOF, BEG, STR, PRG). We shall see. I remain astonished that they do not open anything to feed their BUD-JFK flight as O&D on this route cannot be expected to fill this plane alone, and in particular at decent fares.

https://businessinsider.com.pl/firmy/st ... ax/ptnhr92

Maybe something was lost in translation, could it be they referred to 8 destinations in total which will be served from Budapest including Warsaw and Krakow?

Well, the interview was conducted in Polish and published in Polish, which is also a mother tongue of Milczarski, but obviously something could have still went wrong...

Actually, he didn't even say 'we plan to open this year 8 European routes from BUD', but 'we plan to open this year 8 NEW European routes from BUD'. He said this while complaining that he cannot expand in WAW. Also pls note that they already fly to LCY from BUD, what would make 9 European routes total, if pre-2020 routes were to be included.

As to BUD he mentioned that expansion will be based on E195 fleet and that the results are satisfactory, although obviousely one can see certain seasonality and that building of a network from scratch requires a lot of effort and good judgment. So some usual corporate talk.

He again mentioned also opening of new TATL (but not in the context of BUD).

No mention of Condor whatsoever, so it might be indeed something more serious.

Unofficially it sounds like it is confirmed that LOT will get tons as in 28-30 E-195s from Azul in the next 3 years. To replace 70/75S and growth.

SRQLOT wrote:

Unofficially it sounds like it is confirmed that LOT will get tons as in 28-30 E-195s from Azul in the next 3 years. To replace 70/75S and growth.

They've been using E195s on routes that would normally by Q400s, wonder if they will displace some of those?

pdp wrote:

SRQLOT wrote:

Unofficially it sounds like it is confirmed that LOT will get tons as in 28-30 E-195s from Azul in the next 3 years. To replace 70/75S and growth.

They've been using E195s on routes that would normally by Q400s, wonder if they will displace some of those?

Most possibly, no? It’s going far back but I think I remember that the leases on the Q400 end in 2021? And the last one or two in 2022? So it is within the timeframe. And if the Maxes don’t get shredded up, it will be at the 15.

artflyer wrote:

Blerg wrote:

artflyer wrote:

In the recent interview CEO mentions opening this year of 8 new European routes from BUD. I think this is two more than already announced for this year (BRU, OTP, SOF, BEG, STR, PRG). We shall see. I remain astonished that they do not open anything to feed their BUD-JFK flight as O&D on this route cannot be expected to fill this plane alone, and in particular at decent fares.

https://businessinsider.com.pl/firmy/st ... ax/ptnhr92

Maybe something was lost in translation, could it be they referred to 8 destinations in total which will be served from Budapest including Warsaw and Krakow?

Well, the interview was conducted in Polish and published in Polish, which is also a mother tongue of Milczarski, but obviously something could have still went wrong...

Actually, he didn't even say 'we plan to open this year 8 European routes from BUD', but 'we plan to open this year 8 NEW European routes from BUD'. He said this while complaining that he cannot expand in WAW. Also pls note that they already fly to LCY from BUD, what would make 9 European routes total, if pre-2020 routes were to be included.

As to BUD he mentioned that expansion will be based on E195 fleet and that the results are satisfactory, although obviousely one can see certain seasonality and that building of a network from scratch requires a lot of effort and good judgment. So some usual corporate talk.

He again mentioned also opening of new TATL (but not in the context of BUD).

No mention of Condor whatsoever, so it might be indeed something more serious.

I wonder what other routes we might see then. Maybe Athens? It's a massive market that is not served by them from Warsaw. Will be interesting to see how well their BUD hub performs especially on routes where they are competing against LCCs.

I don't believe in ATH from BUD. LO has slots for opening ATH from WAW and competing with lcc on this mainly leisure route from BUD would be extremely difficult (even more difficult than from WAW). Also there are too many non stop and one stop options from ATH to NYC to really feed their BUD-JFK flight at decent fares.

If I am to guess, TIA, SJJ or some airports in western Romania like TSR or eastern Austria like GRZ (they serve none of them from WAW and any flights with transfer pax from there to BUD would be shorter and thus cheaper than flights to WAW). Alternatively, if they continue not looking for transfer pax for their BUD lh, German airports like BER.

SRQLOT wrote:

pdp wrote:

SRQLOT wrote:

Unofficially it sounds like it is confirmed that LOT will get tons as in 28-30 E-195s from Azul in the next 3 years. To replace 70/75S and growth.

They've been using E195s on routes that would normally by Q400s, wonder if they will displace some of those?

Most possibly, no? It’s going far back but I think I remember that the leases on the Q400 end in 2021? And the last one or two in 2022? So it is within the timeframe. And if the Maxes don’t get shredded up, it will be at the 15.

According to declarations made public a couple of years ago, three Q400 stay until 2022 and one until 2023. Obviously things might have changed.

What about more - even 2nd tier - cities in Russia ?

Wouldn’t this be a good addition too ?

e.g. AER, KUF, GOJ ... or even SVX, KZN

artflyer wrote:

I don't believe in ATH from BUD. LO has slots for opening ATH from WAW and competing with lcc on this mainly leisure route from BUD would be extremely difficult (even more difficult than from WAW). Also there are too many non stop and one stop options from ATH to NYC to really feed their BUD-JFK flight at decent fares.

If I am to guess, TIA, SJJ or some airports in western Romania like TSR or eastern Austria like GRZ (they serve none of them from WAW and any flights with transfer pax from there to BUD would be shorter and thus cheaper than flights to WAW). Alternatively, if they continue not looking for transfer pax for their BUD lh, German airports like BER.

Hmm Tirana is not such a big market, around 3 million passengers and they would have to go up against JU and OS which offer double daily flights and AZ with four daily. Athens is a relatively massive market where they could also offer connections onto Aegean. In SJJ they would also go up against Wizz Air.

Now that I think of it maybe they would go for ZAG or LJU. Ljubljana just lost its home airline, Adria Airways, so they might be willing to give LO a sweet deal. Budapest is pretty competitive as a market so there aren't that many destinatious out there that are left unserved.

cityshuttle wrote:

What about more - even 2nd tier - cities in Russia ?

Wouldn’t this be a good addition too ?

e.g. AER, KUF, GOJ ... or even SVX, KZN

For WAW it is not possible because of the bilateral. The bilateral allows LO to fly to Moscow (currently SVO + DME) and to LED and SU to fly to WAW and to KRK (the flights to KRK were suspended by SU in 2014). LO also flies to KGD, but for this city it would be extremely inconvenient to transfer in Moscow or LED, when flying to anywhere else in Europe, so to me it seems almost like a PSO agreed between Russia and LO as part of their negotiations on Siberian overflight rights.

I am also not sure other destinations could work for LO financially, especially if a transfer in Moscow would be possible without much backtracking as is the case with most of the destinations you named. AY might be somehow right here. So for me the only Russian secondary cities that could work from a financial perspective are those far to the west or far to the south of Moscow.

As to BUD, I expect the Hungerians would be unable to name LO as a Hungerian airline for the purpose of their bilateral (whatever other limitations it may have). For me there would also be little point to bring transfer pax that far, given the scarcity of the current LO network in BUD (two long hauls + 3 existing shot hauls + 8 new short hauls to start).

[photoid][/photoid]

Blerg wrote:

artflyer wrote:

I don't believe in ATH from BUD. LO has slots for opening ATH from WAW and competing with lcc on this mainly leisure route from BUD would be extremely difficult (even more difficult than from WAW). Also there are too many non stop and one stop options from ATH to NYC to really feed their BUD-JFK flight at decent fares.

If I am to guess, TIA, SJJ or some airports in western Romania like TSR or eastern Austria like GRZ (they serve none of them from WAW and any flights with transfer pax from there to BUD would be shorter and thus cheaper than flights to WAW). Alternatively, if they continue not looking for transfer pax for their BUD lh, German airports like BER.

Hmm Tirana is not such a big market, around 3 million passengers and they would have to go up against JU and OS which offer double daily flights and AZ with four daily. Athens is a relatively massive market where they could also offer connections onto . In SJJ they would also go up against Wizz Air.

Now that I think of it maybe they would go for ZAG or LJU. Ljubljana just lost its home airline, Adria Airways, so they might be willing to give LO a sweet deal. Budapest is pretty competitive as a market so there aren't that many destinatious out there that are left unserved.

For me it is either (a) they do short haul to get transfer pax in BUD for their long haul to JFK (ICN is a different story) or (b) they do short haul to connect BUD on higher frequences with the trading partners of Hungary and these to a large extent are, as I suppose, neighbours of Hungary.

If (a), I don't think they are going to fly to places they already cover from WAW. If they fly to these places from BUD, like the current choice of SOF, OTP, BEG, PRG, STR, it is not for (a), but for (b). For (a) they would rather pick smaller destinations closer to BUD, rather thin routes, that would be uneconomical to cover for transfers from WAW. This is here that I see places like TIA or SJJ going on lower frequences (even less then daily) and with true interest only for NYC and not any other lh that could be offered if going via WAW. But I don't think LO is really interested in (a), so I would expect they go for (b). If so, ZAG and LJU from BUD might be there, but I would expect before all of them some German destinations.

artflyer wrote:

[photoid][/photoid]

Blerg wrote:

artflyer wrote:

I don't believe in ATH from BUD. LO has slots for opening ATH from WAW and competing with lcc on this mainly leisure route from BUD would be extremely difficult (even more difficult than from WAW). Also there are too many non stop and one stop options from ATH to NYC to really feed their BUD-JFK flight at decent fares.

If I am to guess, TIA, SJJ or some airports in western Romania like TSR or eastern Austria like GRZ (they serve none of them from WAW and any flights with transfer pax from there to BUD would be shorter and thus cheaper than flights to WAW). Alternatively, if they continue not looking for transfer pax for their BUD lh, German airports like BER.

Hmm Tirana is not such a big market, around 3 million passengers and they would have to go up against JU and OS which offer double daily flights and AZ with four daily. Athens is a relatively massive market where they could also offer connections onto . In SJJ they would also go up against Wizz Air.

Now that I think of it maybe they would go for ZAG or LJU. Ljubljana just lost its home airline, Adria Airways, so they might be willing to give LO a sweet deal. Budapest is pretty competitive as a market so there aren't that many destinatious out there that are left unserved.

For me it is either (a) they do short haul to get transfer pax in BUD for their long haul to JFK (ICN is a different story) or (b) they do short haul to connect BUD on higher frequences with the trading partners of Hungary and these to a large extent are, as I suppose, neighbours of Hungary.

If (a), I don't think they are going to fly to places they already cover from WAW. If they fly to these places from BUD, like the current choice of SOF, OTP, BEG, PRG, STR, it is not for (a), but for (b). For (a) they would rather pick smaller destinations closer to BUD, rather thin routes, that would be uneconomical to cover for transfers from WAW. This is here that I see places like TIA or SJJ going on lower frequences (even less then daily) and with true interest only for NYC and not any other lh that could be offered if going via WAW. But I don't think LO is really interested in (a), so I would expect they go for (b). If so, ZAG and LJU from BUD might be there, but I would expect before all of them some German destinations.

If we look at the BEG schedule then we can see that it's exclusively aimed at transfer passengers, excluding New York since connections are not great. Fares for point to point are not that low, I think cheapest fare is €120 between two cities which are 360 km apart and connected by a highway.

I think they have a two-tier system in Budapest. Certain routes such as Prague, Brussels, London... are there for diaspora and business travelers. Then, to make the most of their fleet utilization they are adding regional flights to fill the extra seats. Most of these are quite short, around an hour so costs are not high.

I am still not convinced about this whole BUD adventure. I am also certain that Hungary is paying them to build a hub. After all, BUD has struggled financially until recently.

Blerg wrote:

artflyer wrote:

[photoid][/photoid]

Blerg wrote:

Hmm Tirana is not such a big market, around 3 million passengers and they would have to go up against JU and OS which offer double daily flights and AZ with four daily. Athens is a relatively massive market where they could also offer connections onto . In SJJ they would also go up against Wizz Air.

Now that I think of it maybe they would go for ZAG or LJU. Ljubljana just lost its home airline, Adria Airways, so they might be willing to give LO a sweet deal. Budapest is pretty competitive as a market so there aren't that many destinatious out there that are left unserved.

For me it is either (a) they do short haul to get transfer pax in BUD for their long haul to JFK (ICN is a different story) or (b) they do short haul to connect BUD on higher frequences with the trading partners of Hungary and these to a large extent are, as I suppose, neighbours of Hungary.

If (a), I don't think they are going to fly to places they already cover from WAW. If they fly to these places from BUD, like the current choice of SOF, OTP, BEG, PRG, STR, it is not for (a), but for (b). For (a) they would rather pick smaller destinations closer to BUD, rather thin routes, that would be uneconomical to cover for transfers from WAW. This is here that I see places like TIA or SJJ going on lower frequences (even less then daily) and with true interest only for NYC and not any +other lh that could be offered if going via WAW. But I don't think LO is really interested in (a), so I would expect they go for (b). If so, ZAG and LJU from BUD might be there, but I would expect before all of them some German destinations.

If we look at the BEG schedule then we can see that it's exclusively aimed at transfer passengers, excluding New York since connections are not great. Fares for point to point are not that low, I think cheapest fare is €120 between two cities which are 360 km apart and connected by a highway.

I think they have a two-tier system in Budapest. Certain routes such as Prague, Brussels, London... are there for diaspora and business travelers. Then, to make the most of their fleet utilization they are adding regional flights to fill the extra seats. Most of these are quite short, around an hour so costs are not high.

I am still not convinced about this whole BUD adventure. I am also certain that Hungary is paying them to build a hub. After all, BUD has struggled financially until recently.

I think that all current short haul by LO in BUD is what I called (b): ie not really aimed at transfers to their lh in BUD (primarily BUD-JFK), but rather trying to benefit from business ties between Hungary and their trading partners and resulting demand for higher frequency flights between these destinations.

Having said that the BUD-BEG schedule by LO, as it is now, seems to serve little purpose at all, except for making use of a plane between some morning and evening flights in BUD. To what I recall LO planned to move three additional E195 to BUD before summer 2020 and that number was then reduced to 2. This is all due to MAX grounding. As a result of this reduction, they had to reduce and change frequences on some of the routes from BUD, and they chose BEG and SOF (apart from that opening of the new short haul routes from BUD was postponed by a couple of months). I didn't check this specifically but I recall somebody saying that BEG-BUD-BEG on LO as it now stands provides good transfer opportunities only for BRU and LCY. I think that when the situation with MAX normalises/LO gets more second hand E195, this flight will be rescheduled back to original plans, ie double daily morning and evening. Another factor could be that they didn't want to cancel the route not yet even started in BUD and as you mentioned the costs are fairly limited.

I get your point about going by car, but Google Maps shows almost four hours for that. I am not familiar with Hungary-Serbia economic and other relations, but my guess would be there needs to be a demand here sufficient to maintain at least two, three daily (including JU).

Last point: LO is never going after diaspora in short haul (vfr on lh is a different story). So I would be astonished, if they did this in BUD. If at all, this may be the reason for Hungary to provide subsidies for these flights (if these subsidies are indeed reality), but not really for LO to open these flights. They seem to know well, that if they start to compete with Wizz or Ryainair on their ground, they will fail.

artflyer wrote:

In the recent interview CEO mentions opening this year of 8 new European routes from BUD. I think this is two more than already announced for this year (BRU, OTP, SOF, BEG, STR, PRG). We shall see. I remain astonished that they do not open anything to feed their BUD-JFK flight as O&D on this route cannot be expected to fill this plane alone, and in particular at decent fares.

https://businessinsider.com.pl/firmy/st ... ax/ptnhr92

You'll have 8, if you add Dubrovnik, Croatia (from 7 June 2020, 1 weekly) and Varna, Bulgaria (7 June 2020, 1 weekly).

LO was beaten to the Warsaw-Athens punch by Aegean covering the full service, business and connecting traffic segment and FR for the low cost point to point market from Modlin.
Plus there is seasonal flying from Smartavia Poland.
BUD to ATH market is the same story plus Wizz thrown into the mix.
They probably can deploy their limited capacity resources (due to the MAX crisis) in other destinations with less entrenched competition.

P1aneMad wrote:

LO was beaten to the Warsaw-Athens punch by Aegean covering the full service, business and connecting traffic segment and FR for the low cost point to point market from Modlin.
Plus there is seasonal flying from Smartavia Poland.
BUD to ATH market is the same story plus Wizz thrown into the mix.
They probably can deploy their limited capacity resources (due to the MAX crisis) in other destinations with less entrenched competition.

LO suspended flying to ATH around 2012. At that time Aegan didn't even fly to Warsaw.

Smartavia doesnt fly to Poland at all.

Following Boeing's announcement yesterday about the 737 Max, it seems highly likely that LOT will need to source alternative aircraft to cover for any originally planned usage of their 5 already-delivered 737 Max aircraft

Anyone know what they are planning to do ? Trim the schedule ? Wet lease from an ACMI supplier ? Reactivate their 737-400s ? Something else ?

davidjohnson6 wrote:

Following Boeing's announcement yesterday about the 737 Max, it seems highly likely that LOT will need to source alternative aircraft to cover for any originally planned usage of their 5 already-delivered 737 Max aircraft

Anyone know what they are planning to do ? Trim the schedule ? Wet lease from an ACMI supplier ? Reactivate their 737-400s ? Something else ?

Buying Condor? Transferring the 320 and 321 to LOT while keep flying the 757 and 767 in Germany to keep the Germans happy?

Otherwise maybe lengthen the wetlease of the 4 320s that just started. 2 are flying now 2 in a week or so, I also heard there was a 321 substitute for a day?

See who else has is dropping E-95s? Supposedly LOT might get one or couple in time for the summer from Azuls batch.

artflyer wrote:

P1aneMad wrote:

LO was beaten to the Warsaw-Athens punch by Aegean covering the full service, business and connecting traffic segment and FR for the low cost point to point market from Modlin.
Plus there is seasonal flying from Smartavia Poland.
BUD to ATH market is the same story plus Wizz thrown into the mix.
They probably can deploy their limited capacity resources (due to the MAX crisis) in other destinations with less entrenched competition.

LO suspended flying to ATH around 2012. At that time Aegan didn't even fly to Warsaw.

Smartavia doesnt fly to Poland at all.

I guess by Smartavia he meant Smartwings

artflyer wrote:

P1aneMad wrote:

LO was beaten to the Warsaw-Athens punch by Aegean covering the full service, business and connecting traffic segment and FR for the low cost point to point market from Modlin.
Plus there is seasonal flying from Smartavia Poland.
BUD to ATH market is the same story plus Wizz thrown into the mix.
They probably can deploy their limited capacity resources (due to the MAX crisis) in other destinations with less entrenched competition.

LO suspended flying to ATH around 2012. At that time Aegan didn't even fly to Warsaw.

Smartavia doesnt fly to Poland at all.

Correct on Smartwings. LO left ATH at the height of both Greece's and LO's own financial troubles.
A3 saw an opening and went for it.
By the time LO had revived and started expanding again FR had launched flights to ATH as well.
Plus both FR and W6 fly year round to secondary Polish cities.
Plus all the seasonal flying from everybody else.
Classic case of you snooze, you loose for LO in the Athens market.

Also LOT will go daily almost to the year to Delhi. Starting September 21, 2020 daily flights will be offered with additional interline flights offered to cities in India.

https://www.pasazer.com/mobi/news/43144 ... india.html

LOT buys Condor - http://www.polsatnews.pl/wiadomosc/2020 ... ie-condor/

So they'll be an Airbus customer as well now! Interesting...

pdp wrote:

LOT buys Condor. So they'll be an Airbus customer as well now! Interesting...

Not exactly LOT but the owner of LOT. There is already speculation in about a joint 20+10 order for wide-bodies. I wouldn't mind to see A350s at Condor and LOT. Perhaps partnering with Condor could also help LOT to get out of the MAX fiasco.

I didn't see this coming but alright. Is LOT mainly purchasing Condor because of its valuable slots at German airports like Frankfurt?

About their fleet purchasing, I don't know the situation at LOT but Condor has quite a large number of aircraft which need replacing in the coming years (767, 757, A320) so LOT can still go in any direction with this. Would LOT buy more MAX's once it is flying again or are they looking to dispose of their own MAX fleet? I think Condor can replace their 767's with the 787. The 757 however, can be replaceb by more A321's which Condor already has so it will be interesting to see in which direction LOT will go.

A388

I bet Boeing would make LO a very sweet deal on MAXes.
The elephant in the room though is what the resale value of the MAX would be in say, 10 years from now.

A388 wrote:

I didn't see this coming but alright. Is LOT mainly purchasing Condor because of its valuable slots at German airports like Frankfurt?

About their fleet purchasing, I don't know the situation at LOT but Condor has quite a large number of aircraft which need replacing in the coming years (767, 757, A320) so LOT can still go in any direction with this. Would LOT buy more MAX's once it is flying again or are they looking to dispose of their own MAX fleet? I think Condor can replace their 767's with the 787. The 757 however, can be replaceb by more A321's which Condor already has so it will be interesting to see in which direction LOT will go.

A388

I don’t think LOT will ever again let their traffic bleed to Frankfurt/Munich like in the past, they have enough flights as of now and have been increasing flights to other German cities.

I think the fleet is where it is. LOT doesn’t want the 767 or 757s in its fleet, but I can see the 321 and 320 jumping around based on where the need is. Plus this will give PGL more muscle to get better discounts, now LOT will get credit toward future Maxs will Airbus be able to beat that??? Same goes with RR engines for the 787s, will Airbus fight harder with their offer???

SRQLOT wrote:

I don’t think LOT will ever again let their traffic bleed to Frankfurt/Munich like in the past, they have enough flights as of now and have been increasing flights to other German cities.

“Bleeding traffic” to feed Lufthansa is different than feeding a carrier which is owned by the same entity as LOT. In the short term I could see LOT codesharing on Condors flights to destinations such as Havana, Cancun, Santo Domingo, Las Vegas, Seattle etc.

In turn if Condor could help with LO sales in Germany maybe it would increase the likelihood of LO (re)starting such destinations as Bangkok / Hanoi.

SRQLOT wrote:

A388 wrote:

I didn't see this coming but alright. Is LOT mainly purchasing Condor because of its valuable slots at German airports like Frankfurt?

About their fleet purchasing, I don't know the situation at LOT but Condor has quite a large number of aircraft which need replacing in the coming years (767, 757, A320) so LOT can still go in any direction with this. Would LOT buy more MAX's once it is flying again or are they looking to dispose of their own MAX fleet? I think Condor can replace their 767's with the 787. The 757 however, can be replaceb by more A321's which Condor already has so it will be interesting to see in which direction LOT will go.

A388

I don’t think LOT will ever again let their traffic bleed to Frankfurt/Munich like in the past, they have enough flights as of now and have been increasing flights to other German cities.

I think the fleet is where it is. LOT doesn’t want the 767 or 757s in its fleet, but I can see the 321 and 320 jumping around based on where the need is. Plus this will give PGL more muscle to get better discounts, now LOT will get credit toward future Maxs will Airbus be able to beat that??? Same goes with RR engines for the 787s, will Airbus fight harder with their offer???

I think right now the perception as to who LOT is/is going to be will change drastically.
Every time they will talk about buying stuff you will be able to extend it across two airlines.
Very different negotiating position if you ask me.

PixelPilot wrote:

SRQLOT wrote:

A388 wrote:

I didn't see this coming but alright. Is LOT mainly purchasing Condor because of its valuable slots at German airports like Frankfurt?

About their fleet purchasing, I don't know the situation at LOT but Condor has quite a large number of aircraft which need replacing in the coming years (767, 757, A320) so LOT can still go in any direction with this. Would LOT buy more MAX's once it is flying again or are they looking to dispose of their own MAX fleet? I think Condor can replace their 767's with the 787. The 757 however, can be replaceb by more A321's which Condor already has so it will be interesting to see in which direction LOT will go.

A388

I don’t think LOT will ever again let their traffic bleed to Frankfurt/Munich like in the past, they have enough flights as of now and have been increasing flights to other German cities.

I think the fleet is where it is. LOT doesn’t want the 767 or 757s in its fleet, but I can see the 321 and 320 jumping around based on where the need is. Plus this will give PGL more muscle to get better discounts, now LOT will get credit toward future Maxs will Airbus be able to beat that??? Same goes with RR engines for the 787s, will Airbus fight harder with their offer???

I think right now the perception as to who LOT is/is going to be will change drastically.
Every time they will talk about buying stuff you will be able to extend it across two airlines.
Very different negotiating position if you ask me.

Yes. LOT+Condor have 20 million pax per year, making this the 13th or so largest airline (group) in Europe. They are far from the leaders, but I'm sure this is large enough for some synergies and other economies of scale to materialize.

terefere wrote:

PixelPilot wrote:

SRQLOT wrote:

I don’t think LOT will ever again let their traffic bleed to Frankfurt/Munich like in the past, they have enough flights as of now and have been increasing flights to other German cities.

I think the fleet is where it is. LOT doesn’t want the 767 or 757s in its fleet, but I can see the 321 and 320 jumping around based on where the need is. Plus this will give PGL more muscle to get better discounts, now LOT will get credit toward future Maxs will Airbus be able to beat that??? Same goes with RR engines for the 787s, will Airbus fight harder with their offer???

I think right now the perception as to who LOT is/is going to be will change drastically.
Every time they will talk about buying stuff you will be able to extend it across two airlines.
Very different negotiating position if you ask me.

Yes. LOT+Condor have 20 million pax per year, making this the 13th or so largest airline (group) in Europe. They are far from the leaders, but I'm sure this is large enough for some synergies and other economies of scale to materialize.

It already is. They stated today that it's gonna be 30 birds. 10 LOT and 20 Condor so that's a huge price bargaining change.

konrad wrote:

pdp wrote:

LOT buys Condor. So they'll be an Airbus customer as well now! Interesting...

Not exactly LOT but the owner of LOT.

And the owner of PGL (who owns LOT) is the government of Poland.

Pasazer.com: LOT will take another 18x E195 from Azul + 14x options (if approved by lessors). Delivery 2020 - 2023, LOT will replace E170 & E175 aircraft.

konkret wrote:

“Bleeding traffic” to feed Lufthansa is different than feeding a carrier which is owned by the same entity as LOT. In the short term I could see LOT codesharing on Condors flights to destinations such as Havana, Cancun, Santo Domingo, Las Vegas, Seattle etc.

The condor flights to Santo Domingo continue to San José CR, FRA-SDQ-SJO-SDQ-FRA, and this year was announced that lights to SJO will be nonstop after an agreement with the tourism ministery of Costa Rica starting Nov 2020. I would like to know what is planning condor with the flight into SDQ because after Oct 2020 booking for flights to SDQ is blocked with no flights. This was before LOT announced are taking over Condor, who knows what will be coming, I know they take a lot cargo in SDQ, so wondering what they are planning.

BoardingPass wrote:

Pasazer.com: LOT will take another 18x E195 from Azul + 14x options (if approved by lessors). Delivery 2020 - 2023, LOT will replace E170 & E175 aircraft.

When do the leases expire on the E70 and E75? Will they replace them one by one or will some of them get transferred to BUD?

BoardingPass wrote:

Pasazer.com: LOT will take another 18x E195 from Azul + 14x options (if approved by lessors). Delivery 2020 - 2023, LOT will replace E170 & E175 aircraft.

According to another source first deliveries are expected in February 2020. I guess initial ones will be used to cover the lack of MAXes.

Blerg wrote:

BoardingPass wrote:

Pasazer.com: LOT will take another 18x E195 from Azul + 14x options (if approved by lessors). Delivery 2020 - 2023, LOT will replace E170 & E175 aircraft.

According to another source first deliveries are expected in February 2020. I guess initial ones will be used to cover the lack of MAXes.

Replacement of E170/175 is a speculation by the aviation portal that was cited, but is certainly a possibility.

Possible uses:

a) replacement of E170/175 and/or Q400 (with the latter being even more probable)

b) fleet expansion in WAW (depending also on WAW expansion)

c) BUD (question is how many and not if)

d) Nordica (replacement of CRJ).

All grounded MAX are already replaced by recently added E195/B737NG, so it is more about replacement of the MAX contracted, but not delivered.

PR-AUB was pulled out of Azul fleet end of October 2019, so this is probably the one coming in February.

I would be astonished, if they moved any E170/175s to BUD. These are on their way out and it would not be worth the effort to start the base with planes that have no future in the fleet. Also they didn't do it by now, even though one could expect some of the routes where they use E170/175 from WAW are probably thicker than the BUD routes they operate with E195,

artflyer wrote:

Blerg wrote:

BoardingPass wrote:

Pasazer.com: LOT will take another 18x E195 from Azul + 14x options (if approved by lessors). Delivery 2020 - 2023, LOT will replace E170 & E175 aircraft.

According to another source first deliveries are expected in February 2020. I guess initial ones will be used to cover the lack of MAXes.

Replacement of E170/175 is a speculation by the aviation portal that was cited, but is certainly a possibility.

Possible uses:

a) replacement of E170/175 and/or Q400 (with the latter being even more probable)

b) fleet expansion in WAW (depending also on WAW expansion)

c) BUD (question is how many and not if)

d) Nordica (replacement of CRJ).

All grounded MAX are already replaced by recently added E195/B737NG, so it is more about replacement of the MAX contracted, but not delivered.

PR-AUB was pulled out of Azul fleet end of October 2019, so this is probably the one coming in February.

I would be astonished, if they moved any E170/175s to BUD. These are on their way out and it would not be worth the effort to start the base with planes that have no future in the fleet. Also they didn't do it by now, even though one could expect some of the routes where they use E170/175 from WAW are probably thicker than the BUD routes they operate with E195,

So basically one thing is certain and that is that the E70/75 are on their way out? I wonder if E95 might not be too big for certain routes? It would be quite a capacity jump unless they plan on keeping the Q400s.

artflyer wrote:

a) replacement of E170/175 and/or Q400 (with the latter being even more probable)

Why do you think replacing Q400 is more probable? I thought they are pretty economic to use for LO compared to the E170. I understand they will replace them eventually, but why now?

artflyer wrote:

Blerg wrote:

BoardingPass wrote:

Pasazer.com: LOT will take another 18x E195 from Azul + 14x options (if approved by lessors). Delivery 2020 - 2023, LOT will replace E170 & E175 aircraft.

According to another source first deliveries are expected in February 2020. I guess initial ones will be used to cover the lack of MAXes.

Replacement of E170/175 is a speculation by the aviation portal that was cited, but is certainly a possibility.

Possible uses:

a) replacement of E170/175 and/or Q400 (with the latter being even more probable)

b) fleet expansion in WAW (depending also on WAW expansion)

c) BUD (question is how many and not if)

d) Nordica (replacement of CRJ).

All grounded MAX are already replaced by recently added E195/B737NG, so it is more about replacement of the MAX contracted, but not delivered.

PR-AUB was pulled out of Azul fleet end of October 2019, so this is probably the one coming in February.

I would be astonished, if they moved any E170/175s to BUD. These are on their way out and it would not be worth the effort to start the base with planes that have no future in the fleet. Also they didn't do it by now, even though one could expect some of the routes where they use E170/175 from WAW are probably thicker than the BUD routes they operate with E195,

I doubt that the E195s will go to Nordica to replace the CRJ's. Nordica have recently expanded their contract for operating some of them on behalf of SAS

SASViking wrote:

I doubt that the E195s will go to Nordica to replace the CRJ's. Nordica have recently expanded their contract for operating some of them on behalf of SAS

Nordica is definitely getting Embraers to operate for LOT instead of the 4 or so dedicated LOT CRJs. Not a full fleet replacement as they operate the CRJ for SAS as you mention.

Not sure where the Embraers for Nordica will come from... Perhaps older LOT ones as they receive new ones.

intrance wrote:

SASViking wrote:

I doubt that the E195s will go to Nordica to replace the CRJ's. Nordica have recently expanded their contract for operating some of them on behalf of SAS

Nordica is definitely getting Embraers to operate for LOT instead of the 4 or so dedicated LOT CRJs. Not a full fleet replacement as they operate the CRJ for SAS as you mention.

Not sure where the Embraers for Nordica will come from... Perhaps older LOT ones as they receive new ones.

The E195s to join Nordica will come from the same source as E195s joining LO directly, ie from Azul as part of the entire batch agreed between Azul/its lessors and LO. At least this is what is rumoured. What will happen with CRJs of Nordica I don't know. They may as well continue to fly the ones they wet-leased to LO for other operators. And of course this has nothing to do with wet-leases with SAS, where they use other CRJs.

LOT does not plan to reduce or suspend its flights to China? I think it is one of the few European Airlines that have not canceled

terefere wrote:

artflyer wrote:

a) replacement of E170/175 and/or Q400 (with the latter being even more probable)

Why do you think replacing Q400 is more probable? I thought they are pretty economic to use for LO compared to the E170. I understand they will replace them eventually, but why now?

Because Q400 seem to be much much less reliable (landing gear) and I also expect it to be easier to operate E170/175/190/195 fleet rather than Q400/E190/E195 fleet.

Also LO currently has 18 E170/175 (two wet-leased to the Polish government, but one lease finished on 31 Dec 2019 and the other one will finish on 30 June 2020). So 18 E195 under a fixed order with Azul/its lessors would be just a direct replacement, nothing would be left for BUD. So unless LO wants to shrink its E-jets fleet in WAW to make space for MAX when they come back and move those E-jets to BUD, I think this scenario is less probable.

This is not to mean E170/175 won't go away when leases expire - I just think it is much more probable that E195s are aimed to first replace Q400s.

RainerBoeing777 wrote:

LOT does not plan to reduce or suspend its flights to China? I think it is one of the few European Airlines that have not canceled

Because of the bilateral, they only have one route to China: daily to PEK/PKX. All pax unwilling to go can get a full refund. To me it could make sense to suspend the route entirely as it would ease problems with the lh fleet. Currently some 5 out of 15 B787 are grounded. Operational nightmare I guess.




Edited 17.41.

artflyer wrote:

RainerBoeing777 wrote:

LOT does not plan to reduce or suspend its flights to China? I think it is one of the few European Airlines that have not canceled

Because of the bilateral, they only have one route to China: daily to PEK/PKX. All pax unwilling to go can get a full refund. To me it could make sense to suspend the route entirely as it would ease problems with the lh fleet. Currently some 5 out of 15 B787 are grounded. Operational nightmare I guess.




Edited 17.41.

I think they should suspend the situation of the coronavirus outbreak even worse

LOT'S BUD-ICN route gets competition from KE Korean Air from May. 3x a week, shorter flight time
https://airportal.hu/szoul-es-budapest- ... nMHR6_uwZg

RainerBoeing777 wrote:

artflyer wrote:

RainerBoeing777 wrote:

LOT does not plan to reduce or suspend its flights to China? I think it is one of the few European Airlines that have not canceled

Because of the bilateral, they only have one route to China: daily to PEK/PKX. All pax unwilling to go can get a full refund. To me it could make sense to suspend the route entirely as it would ease problems with the lh fleet. Currently some 5 out of 15 B787 are grounded. Operational nightmare I guess.




Edited 17.41.

I think they should suspend the situation of the coronavirus outbreak even worse

LOT suspends China. One more 787 can be used somewhere else. Unless more issues from RR pop up as has been getting loud.

https://fakty.interia.pl/raporty/raport ... Id,4300596