BNAMealer
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Re: Chicago Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Jan 08, 2020 1:16 am

yeogeo wrote:
sircygnus wrote:
Has anyone heard any news about the number of additional gates after T5, two satellites, and the OGT is build?


FWIW, I've never seen any plans that got down to the granular level of gates in the terminals beyond Sat 2; only diagrams with outlines of terminals , such as this example from April 2018 (from the CDA's O'Hare 21 Terminal Area Plan):
Image
Above, Satellites 3 & 4, which sircygnus is wondering about, are labeled confusingly "2" and "3".
The the largest blue terminal in the center, along with Sat 1 (next blue terminal west, attached to current T 1, "C" gates concourse) together form the Global Terminal. Next satellite west, also in blue but unidentified here, is Sat 2, the replacement for much of the current T-2 gate activity.

Incidentally, the trigger for building for the satellite terminals 3 & 4 was always reported to be a yearly pax count of 101,500,000, although I haven't heard that repeated for awhile.

Also, there is no information that I've seen about the number of gates we can expect in the "redevelopments" of Terminal 1, B&C & Terminal 3 & Concourse G, which are in the works after the Global Terminal is built, supposedly.


The thing is, T3 will have to be demolished and replaced at some point, that’s no question. The question is, is that design adequate to replace the gates lost? Or will they have to do a more detailed study when the time comes?
 
jagraham
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Re: Chicago Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Jan 08, 2020 1:20 am

yeogeo wrote:
Happy New Year everyone!
I thought we could start the Chicago Av Thread with a look to what we're most anticipating at Chicago Area airports in 2020.

A few off the top of my head for O'Hare:
•The ATS: finish the damn thing already!
•The commissioning of 9C/27C
•Flights to Brisbane!
more?

Help me out with Midway; what do we have to look forward there?


They are more than halfway to finishing the bridge expansion over Cicero Avenue. Passengers traveling through MDW already find the TSA lines to be shorter. But also, the deplaning passengers are confused by the temporary passageway from the terminals to baggage claim. Can't wait for that to be finished!
 
sircygnus
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Re: Chicago Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Jan 08, 2020 2:02 am

The other thing to consider is with AA and United continuing to upgauge on certain routes how many existing RJ gates will be converted to mainline?

Is there a conversion? For example 2 RJ gates equal. 1 narrowbody gate?
 
ORDfan
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Re: Chicago Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Jan 08, 2020 2:37 am

BNAMealer wrote:
yeogeo wrote:
sircygnus wrote:
Has anyone heard any news about the number of additional gates after T5, two satellites, and the OGT is build?


FWIW, I've never seen any plans that got down to the granular level of gates in the terminals beyond Sat 2; only diagrams with outlines of terminals , such as this example from April 2018 (from the CDA's O'Hare 21 Terminal Area Plan):
Image
Above, Satellites 3 & 4, which sircygnus is wondering about, are labeled confusingly "2" and "3".
The the largest blue terminal in the center, along with Sat 1 (next blue terminal west, attached to current T 1, "C" gates concourse) together form the Global Terminal. Next satellite west, also in blue but unidentified here, is Sat 2, the replacement for much of the current T-2 gate activity.

Incidentally, the trigger for building for the satellite terminals 3 & 4 was always reported to be a yearly pax count of 101,500,000, although I haven't heard that repeated for awhile.

Also, there is no information that I've seen about the number of gates we can expect in the "redevelopments" of Terminal 1, B&C & Terminal 3 & Concourse G, which are in the works after the Global Terminal is built, supposedly.


The thing is, T3 will have to be demolished and replaced at some point, that’s no question. The question is, is that design adequate to replace the gates lost? Or will they have to do a more detailed study when the time comes?


I wouldn't be so sure about T3. It's easily got another 20+ years of serviceable life left in it, and I'm of the opinion that it's possible it could be landmarked by the time we get there.

JFK T2 opened the same year as T3, and it has not aged anywhere near as well as T3. Further, there is a growing appreciation of the architectural brutalism of the 1960's and Charles Murphy figures to have several buildings on the national register in the next few years. Thanks to some pretty intense behind-scenes architectural lobbying, the Seven Continents Rotunda will be maintained as part of the Global Terminal, thankfully. And I fully expect there will be a strong effort to preserve the exterior structure of T3 if and when it becomes necessary; I will be part of that effort.
 
BNAMealer
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Re: Chicago Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:20 am

ORDfan wrote:
BNAMealer wrote:
yeogeo wrote:

FWIW, I've never seen any plans that got down to the granular level of gates in the terminals beyond Sat 2; only diagrams with outlines of terminals , such as this example from April 2018 (from the CDA's O'Hare 21 Terminal Area Plan):
Image
Above, Satellites 3 & 4, which sircygnus is wondering about, are labeled confusingly "2" and "3".
The the largest blue terminal in the center, along with Sat 1 (next blue terminal west, attached to current T 1, "C" gates concourse) together form the Global Terminal. Next satellite west, also in blue but unidentified here, is Sat 2, the replacement for much of the current T-2 gate activity.

Incidentally, the trigger for building for the satellite terminals 3 & 4 was always reported to be a yearly pax count of 101,500,000, although I haven't heard that repeated for awhile.

Also, there is no information that I've seen about the number of gates we can expect in the "redevelopments" of Terminal 1, B&C & Terminal 3 & Concourse G, which are in the works after the Global Terminal is built, supposedly.


The thing is, T3 will have to be demolished and replaced at some point, that’s no question. The question is, is that design adequate to replace the gates lost? Or will they have to do a more detailed study when the time comes?


I wouldn't be so sure about T3. It's easily got another 20+ years of serviceable life left in it, and I'm of the opinion that it's possible it could be landmarked by the time we get there.

JFK T2 opened the same year as T3, and it has not aged anywhere near as well as T3. Further, there is a growing appreciation of the architectural brutalism of the 1960's and Charles Murphy figures to have several buildings on the national register in the next few years. Thanks to some pretty intense behind-scenes architectural lobbying, the Seven Continents Rotunda will be maintained as part of the Global Terminal, thankfully. And I fully expect there will be a strong effort to preserve the exterior structure of T3 if and when it becomes necessary; I will be part of that effort.


T3 is the same age as T2, and while it is in better shape than T2 due to extensive renovations thanks to AA, it is still aging and will most likely come down at some point as it doesn’t fit in with the design of where things are going at ORD. At the end of the day, the airport is a business and while we can celebrate the architecture all we want, we have to move on at some point. Modern airports are critical for the regional and national economy.

As much as I don’t like Doug Parker, he said it best at the initial announcement of the O’Hare 21 concept in 2016:
"There's no debate, it's time to start planning for the future of O'Hare. While the old antique charm may work at Wrigley Field, it's not quite the same at an airport."


https://www.chicagotribune.com/politics/ct-ohare-new-runways-met-0715-20160714-story.html
 
ual763
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Re: Chicago Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:39 am

Personally, from the layout plan, I think T3 will cease to be T3. I believe it will be an extension of the OGT. The reason I say this, is because the concourses are completely removed. Maybe some A380 capable gates (although by the time it is done, the A380 may no longer be flying)? Makes sense to make it part of OGT if they truly want all OW & SA carriers to be under one roof. They will need all gate space they can get. The non-international AAL flights will get one of the new island concourses IIRC.

Only question I have is... Why all the plain ramp space where T3 used to be? Surely, they could at least fit one concourse here that could fit heavies adequately? Will it all be hard stands? I sure hope not.
From flying to the NOTAM office
 
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yeogeo
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Re: Chicago Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Jan 08, 2020 2:42 pm

ORDfan wrote:
[T-3 has] easily got another 20+ years of serviceable life left in it, and I'm of the opinion that it's possible it could be landmarked by the time we get there.

JFK T2 opened the same year as T3, and it has not aged anywhere near as well as T3. Further, there is a growing appreciation of the architectural brutalism of the 1960's and Charles Murphy figures to have several buildings on the national register in the next few years. Thanks to some pretty intense behind-scenes architectural lobbying, the Seven Continents Rotunda will be maintained as part of the Global Terminal, thankfully. And I fully expect there will be a strong effort to preserve the exterior structure of T3 if and when it becomes necessary; I will be part of that effort.


Out of curiosity, ORDfan, if the landmarking of T-3 were to occur, am I right in assuming that status would only apply to the terminal itself and not the concourses?

ual763 wrote:
Personally, from the layout plan, I think T3 will cease to be T3. I believe it will be an extension of the OGT. The reason I say this, is because the concourses are completely removed...Only question I have is... Why all the plain ramp space where T3 used to be?


I think the answer to your question is that no one knows at this point what will replace the T-3 concourses; those decisions are likely well down the road.
It's an interesting question...that's an awful lot of real estate out there that could be reconfigured perhaps into a more efficient layout than the existing "Y" setup.
currently practicing hygge
 
ual763
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Re: Chicago Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:49 pm

ORDfan wrote:
Thanks to some pretty intense behind-scenes architectural lobbying, the Seven Continents Rotunda will be maintained as part of the Global Terminal, thankfully.


How great would it be to see the Seven Continents Rotunda restored to it’s former glory as part of the new OGT. I’m talking about opening it up and making it an amazing restaurant again. Although I would prefer it be open to the public, it could function quite nicely as sort of an exclusive club/restaurant. Sort of like “Classified” at EWR. As a foodie, and an avid avgeek/ORDlover, this would be an absolute dream come true.

Wasn’t there originally a viewing deck on top of the rotunda back in the day too?
From flying to the NOTAM office
 
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United787
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Re: Chicago Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Jan 08, 2020 5:21 pm

chidino wrote:
More Paschen aerial updates. (About the only reason to check Facebook any more.)

https://www.facebook.com/FHPaschen/photos/pb.180238015346032.-2207520000../2612597112110098/?type=3&theater


I wonder if the mild December is helping their schedule... we might see the new runway earlier this year afterall...
 
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United787
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Re: Chicago Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Jan 08, 2020 6:03 pm

yeogeo wrote:
Incidentally, the trigger for building for the satellite terminals 3 & 4 was always reported to be a yearly pax count of 101,500,000, although I haven't heard that repeated for awhile.


2010 passenger traffic at ORD was 66,774,738
2018 passenger traffic at ORD was 83,339,186

Should ORD continue with that rate of growth (I understand past growth is not indicative of future results):
2027 passenger traffic at ORD will be 101,974,190

From the ORD21 website "Upon further review of construction sequencing and maintenance schedules, the City and its program manager recommends that the completion date of the O’Hare Global Terminal—the final component of the Terminal Area Plan—will move from 2026 to 2028."

https://www.ord21.com/About/Pages/faq.aspx

I think ORD will outgrow the Global Terminal and it's two initial satellite concourses before construction is even complete. They should start designing the 3 & 4 satellite concourses in 2022.
 
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United787
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Re: Chicago Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Jan 08, 2020 6:36 pm

ORDfan wrote:
Further, there is a growing appreciation of the architectural brutalism of the 1960's and Charles Murphy figures to have several buildings on the national register in the next few years. Thanks to some pretty intense behind-scenes architectural lobbying, the Seven Continents Rotunda will be maintained as part of the Global Terminal, thankfully. And I fully expect there will be a strong effort to preserve the exterior structure of T3 if and when it becomes necessary; I will be part of that effort.


I wouldn't call any of the ORD buildings 'Brutalist' but more of the 'Miesian' or 'Modernist'. G/H/K are too butchered from their 80's renovation to be appreciated for their original architectural 'splendor' and they were never anything special anyway. L is from 1983 and is no gem itself. T3 is shown to be renovated and I can appreciate that but even that was butchered when they added space to the front when the roadway canopy was built. If you want to save a modernist 'Miesian' building, save the Heating Plant, that is truely a masterpiece, especially at night.
 
ZBA2CGX
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Re: Chicago Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Jan 08, 2020 7:24 pm

United787 wrote:
chidino wrote:
More Paschen aerial updates. (About the only reason to check Facebook any more.)

https://www.facebook.com/FHPaschen/photos/pb.180238015346032.-2207520000../2612597112110098/?type=3&theater


I wonder if the mild December is helping their schedule... we might see the new runway earlier this year afterall...


I wonder if they are planning to have a runway run like they did for northern and southern runways?
 
sircygnus
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Re: Chicago Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Jan 08, 2020 8:06 pm

I wonder if they are planning to have a runway run like they did for northern and southern runways?


My guess would be no because of the proximity of the runway to adjacent runways. 10R/28L and 9L/27R are both separated from the rest of the field by a fair amount.
 
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yeogeo
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Re: Chicago Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:48 pm

This "Blue Jay" JA772F, pictured at O'Hare in late December, has to be one of the newest 77F's regularly appearing on the field, delivered to HND last 11 June.
Its initial flight in Japan was 22 minutes long - to NRT - followed by nearly four months of flying between NRT, KIX and PVG.
First flight to ORD was on 31 October and she has since operated a NRT-ORD-NRT-PVG-NRT pattern.
currently practicing hygge
 
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yeogeo
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Re: Chicago Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 09, 2020 12:15 am

United787 wrote:
If you want to save a modernist 'Miesian' building, save the Heating Plant, that is truely a masterpiece, especially at night.


You know, I would never think of describing a heating plant in those terms, but I have to agree with you!
I have many memories of picking up/ dropping off my Dad at O'Hare with that structure clearly in my head - at night of course... and you're right - its Miesian.

Remember the proposal to build a Terminal 4 and 6? They were going to re-locate the Heating Plant to accommodate them.
That was back when "jumbo Boeing 777-200s" were new :old:
https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct- ... story.html
currently practicing hygge
 
maxkd
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Re: Chicago Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 09, 2020 1:25 am

Cathay Pacific to fly A350-1000 ORD-HKG from June-October

https://onemileatatime.com/cathay-pacif ... ujNWYclvRs
 
ORDfan
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Re: Chicago Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 09, 2020 3:05 am

BNAMealer wrote:
ORDfan"
T3 is the same age as T2, and while it is in better shape than T2 due to extensive renovations thanks to AA, it is still aging and will most likely come down at some point as it doesn’t fit in with the design of where things are going at ORD. At the end of the day, the airport is a business and while we can celebrate the architecture all we want, we have to move on at some point. Modern airports are critical for the regional and national economy.

As much as I don’t like Doug Parker, he said it best at the initial announcement of the O’Hare 21 concept in 2016:
[quote]"There's no debate, it's time to start planning for the future of O'Hare. While the old antique charm may work at Wrigley Field, it's not quite the same at an airport."




Fair enough, but I'd argue that T3 is still and will be very functional for a long time. I've yet to see a convincing argument that precludes T3's near-to-medium term obsolescence. The tube-based fuselage aircraft design of the 1960's is going to the rule the airport tarmacs for another 30-40 years at least. There's nothing some new glass curtain walls, reworked retail, and new jet bridges can't fix. Furthermore, I'd argue with AA eventually moving some widebody's over to the OGT, T3 should have some pressure taken off to focus on the narrowbodies. When it's done right, I think the glass walls rival any views from any other domestic terminal.

Not everyone believes that all new terminals need to look like convention centers.

Image

[quote="yeogeo wrote:
Out of curiosity, ORDfan, if the landmarking of T-3 were to occur, am I right in assuming that status would only apply to the terminal itself and not the concourses


There are different types (levels) of landmarking: some more restrictive than others. Some require all exterior and as many interior elements as possible to be preserved, others require just the basic shape or shell of the landmark to exist. It's a pretty fluid definition and is highly local and very case-specific. I'd recommend something along the line of maintaining and restoring the exterior structure and curtain walls with T3 - removing some of the ad-hoc concrete works and reworking jet bridges to suit the original atheistic.

ual763 wrote:
How great would it be to see the Seven Continents Rotunda restored to it’s former glory as part of the new OGT. I’m talking about opening it up and making it an amazing restaurant again. Although I would prefer it be open to the public, it could function quite nicely as sort of an exclusive club/restaurant. Sort of like “Classified” at EWR. As a foodie, and an avid avgeek/ORDlover, this would be an absolute dream come true.

Wasn’t there originally a viewing deck on top of the rotunda back in the day too?


Yep: it was a slick spot back in the day. It'd be great to see this formally restored as well. There's no reason a higher end restaurant couldn't do well up there today.

https://chicagomodern.wordpress.com/201 ... et-modern/

Image

United787 wrote:
I wouldn't call any of the ORD buildings 'Brutalist' but more of the 'Miesian' or 'Modernist'. G/H/K are too butchered from their 80's renovation to be appreciated for their original architectural 'splendor' and they were never anything special anyway. L is from 1983 and is no gem itself. T3 is shown to be renovated and I can appreciate that but even that was butchered when they added space to the front when the roadway canopy was built. If you want to save a modernist 'Miesian' building, save the Heating Plant, that is truely a masterpiece, especially at night.
.

I don't want to argue semantics and I wouldn't disagree too heavily with the Mies/Modernist reference, but I would note that the Mies/Modernist era pre-dates Murphy. Sure you can see some of Mies' influence in the terminal, but Mies was peaking in the late 40's/early' 50's, and Charles Murphy was a well-known brutalist by the the time T2/T3 opened in '62. I said brutalism largely owing to the concrete-heavy look and symmetry of the main concourse towers (where the "y" legs meet). It's perhaps the most identifying part of the project to my eye - I believe the piers/concourses themselves could be more malleable/updated and still maintain Murphy's ethos.

Being butchered in the past doesn't mean that are incapable and/or not worth preserving and restoring. Particularly if they are still functional.

https://www.chicagomag.com/Chicago-Maga ... Brutalism/

https://www.latimes.com/books/la-ca-jc- ... story.html

https://chicagomodern.wordpress.com/201 ... -building/
 
muralir
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Re: Chicago Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 09, 2020 4:58 am

maxkd wrote:
Cathay Pacific to fly A350-1000 ORD-HKG from June-October

https://onemileatatime.com/cathay-pacif ... ujNWYclvRs


With United cutting its flight and this downguaging, we've seen a tremendous loss of capacity to HKG, even more (percentage wise) than the loss to China and Japan (with AA) and s.korea (Asiana).

But overall a drastic decline in Asian capacity. I wonder, does this just mean ORD was overserved in the past, or are connecting flows changing, or is the chicago-asia O&D market declining? Either way, this doesn't bode well for Singapore starting a new flight...
 
chidino
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Re: Chicago Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:26 am

muralir wrote:

With United cutting its flight and this downguaging, we've seen a tremendous loss of capacity to HKG, even more (percentage wise) than the loss to China and Japan (with AA) and s.korea (Asiana).

But overall a drastic decline in Asian capacity. I wonder, does this just mean ORD was overserved in the past, or are connecting flows changing, or is the chicago-asia O&D market declining? Either way, this doesn't bode well for Singapore starting a new flight...


Please don't conflate the highly volatile situation in HKG to anything else: traffic at HKG is down sharply from all over the world. https://centreforaviation.com/analysis/reports/hong-kong-traffic-decline-hurts-airlines--airport-505593
 
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piedmontf284000
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Re: Chicago Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 09, 2020 9:43 am

chidino wrote:
muralir wrote:

With United cutting its flight and this downguaging, we've seen a tremendous loss of capacity to HKG, even more (percentage wise) than the loss to China and Japan (with AA) and s.korea (Asiana).

But overall a drastic decline in Asian capacity. I wonder, does this just mean ORD was overserved in the past, or are connecting flows changing, or is the chicago-asia O&D market declining? Either way, this doesn't bode well for Singapore starting a new flight...


Please don't conflate the highly volatile situation in HKG to anything else: traffic at HKG is down sharply from all over the world. https://centreforaviation.com/analysis/reports/hong-kong-traffic-decline-hurts-airlines--airport-505593


I'm not so sure that it is all due to the issues in Hong Kong. The fact of the matter is that CX serves LAX and SFO 3x daily with competition from AA and UA. JFK sees 3x daily from CX. YYZ sees 2x daily from CX with competition from AC. So clearly there is demand to HKG (and beyond). Quite honestly, with UA having pulled their flight it should have helped CX in terms of premium traffic from ORD to HKG for a daily flight. This downguaging to an A351, which has no F and less J is indicative of CX not being able to make it work out of Chicago filling the front of the plane. The fact that AA pulled out of Asia completely from ORD, OZ dropping ORD, and MU and HU being 3x a week says to me that Chicago (and the Midwest) is struggling from a business traveler standpoint of filling airplanes to Asia.
 
ZBA2CGX
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Re: Chicago Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 09, 2020 2:58 pm

piedmontf284000 wrote:
chidino wrote:
muralir wrote:

With United cutting its flight and this downguaging, we've seen a tremendous loss of capacity to HKG, even more (percentage wise) than the loss to China and Japan (with AA) and s.korea (Asiana).

But overall a drastic decline in Asian capacity. I wonder, does this just mean ORD was overserved in the past, or are connecting flows changing, or is the chicago-asia O&D market declining? Either way, this doesn't bode well for Singapore starting a new flight...


Please don't conflate the highly volatile situation in HKG to anything else: traffic at HKG is down sharply from all over the world. https://centreforaviation.com/analysis/reports/hong-kong-traffic-decline-hurts-airlines--airport-505593


I'm not so sure that it is all due to the issues in Hong Kong. The fact of the matter is that CX serves LAX and SFO 3x daily with competition from AA and UA. JFK sees 3x daily from CX. YYZ sees 2x daily from CX with competition from AC. So clearly there is demand to HKG (and beyond). Quite honestly, with UA having pulled their flight it should have helped CX in terms of premium traffic from ORD to HKG for a daily flight. This downguaging to an A351, which has no F and less J is indicative of CX not being able to make it work out of Chicago filling the front of the plane. The fact that AA pulled out of Asia completely from ORD, OZ dropping ORD, and MU and HU being 3x a week says to me that Chicago (and the Midwest) is struggling from a business traveler standpoint of filling airplanes to Asia.


Toronto has a extremely large Cantonese and Mainland diaspora that can support the number of flights to/form HKG
I believe Chinese is the largest ethnic group in the city of Toronto
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Toronto
and the second largest visible minority in the Toronto CMA
https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-rece ... =01&B1=All
 
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JetAwayDrew
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Re: Chicago Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:32 pm

Question. My buddy and I are flying in from Denver and want to do some plane spotting. It looks like most of the heavies arrive / depart on 28R / 28C. Do you guys know of any great spots for us? Thanks. :)
 
ORDfan
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Re: Chicago Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 10, 2020 2:35 am

piedmontf284000 wrote:
chidino wrote:
muralir wrote:

With United cutting its flight and this downguaging, we've seen a tremendous loss of capacity to HKG, even more (percentage wise) than the loss to China and Japan (with AA) and s.korea (Asiana).

But overall a drastic decline in Asian capacity. I wonder, does this just mean ORD was overserved in the past, or are connecting flows changing, or is the chicago-asia O&D market declining? Either way, this doesn't bode well for Singapore starting a new flight...


Please don't conflate the highly volatile situation in HKG to anything else: traffic at HKG is down sharply from all over the world. https://centreforaviation.com/analysis/reports/hong-kong-traffic-decline-hurts-airlines--airport-505593


I'm not so sure that it is all due to the issues in Hong Kong. The fact of the matter is that CX serves LAX and SFO 3x daily with competition from AA and UA. JFK sees 3x daily from CX. YYZ sees 2x daily from CX with competition from AC. So clearly there is demand to HKG (and beyond). Quite honestly, with UA having pulled their flight it should have helped CX in terms of premium traffic from ORD to HKG for a daily flight. This downguaging to an A351, which has no F and less J is indicative of CX not being able to make it work out of Chicago filling the front of the plane. The fact that AA pulled out of Asia completely from ORD, OZ dropping ORD, and MU and HU being 3x a week says to me that Chicago (and the Midwest) is struggling from a business traveler standpoint of filling airplanes to Asia.


It is true that the Chicago PMI is below 50, which signals regional manufacturing contraction, and is generally well-known to be a barometer for the regional Chicagoland metro economy as relates to heavy industry. December was however a 4 month high for the Chicago PMI, and step back towards 50 - which signals growth. The ISM index, however, is at 10 year lows... yes, you read that right: 10 year lows, despite what the DOW or SPX are doing, this is an incredibly bearish macro economic indicator. It is a given that Chicago (and ORD) are bearing the brunt of of this systemic manufacturing recession.

It's been well-reported that ORD traffic to Asia is down largely due to the trade war and manufacturing slowdown, and lot of that is born by HKG/China-related travel. The Chicagoland metro area has, of course, a lot of correlation to China manufacturing, logistics, and trade and the trade war has weighed heavier on Chicago than other less more manufacturing-centric cities.

However, there also has been a tough of ORD-Asia capacity added in the past several years, including EVA, China Eastern, Hainan adding CTU, JL adding HND, and KE upgauging to 748.

It's also true that CX is down gauging elsewhere now. JFK is actually 18x/weekly now since October. YYZ downgraded to 13x/weekly, and SFO 2nd flight downgraded to A359 as well. IAD down to 4x/weekly. The trade war is starting to bite everywhere, Chicago just took it on the chin first.

Image

https://www.chicagobusiness.com/airline ... ia-dip-why

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... e-changes/

https://liveandletsfly.boardingarea.com ... -cutbacks/
 
ORDfan
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Re: Chicago Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 10, 2020 2:37 am

Anyone else noticing a strange formatting error on this page? I've checked several browsers now...

MODS: anyway to fix this error, please? Or is it just me?
 
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yeogeo
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Re: Chicago Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 10, 2020 2:52 am

ORDfan wrote:
Anyone else noticing a strange formatting error on this page? I've checked several browsers now...

MODS: anyway to fix this error, please? Or is it just me?

Not just you - I've got a weird 1/4 size format on this page as well.

Also...good summary of the state of affairs in and around ORD. Thanks for that.
currently practicing hygge
 
ual763
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Re: Chicago Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 10, 2020 3:37 am

The mobile site (at least on iPad) seems fine for me.
From flying to the NOTAM office
 
ORDfan
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Re: Chicago Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 10, 2020 3:50 am

Yep mobile site appears fine as well, it'd just this webpage.

**Too late to edit, but I meant YVR on my above post with CX reductions at Vancouver.

I had YYZ on the brain because CX also downgauged to A350 last year and closed the crew base there in early '19.
 
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yeogeo
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Re: Chicago Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 10, 2020 3:10 pm

JetAwayDrew wrote:
Question. My buddy and I are flying in from Denver and want to do some plane spotting. It looks like most of the heavies arrive / depart on 28R / 28C. Do you guys know of any great spots for us? Thanks. :)


You may already have these basic tools, but here goes:
https://aeronav.faa.gov/d-tpp/2001/0016 ... ddest=(ORD)

https://www.flightradar24.com/41.98,-87.91/13
FR24 will give you info on whether its a west flow or east flow on that day. If you watch it over the course of several days you'll get the hang of typical operations.

You may want to consult this wiki site for spotting sites, but the runway usage info is way out of date (for example 14R/32L was decommissioned a couple of years ago):
https://www.spotterswiki.com/index.php/ ... al_Airport


Bad weather makes for unusual departure/arrival patterns but usually:
•heavies land on 28C or 10C, depending on the flow, although 27L/9R is not uncommon except for the heaviest.
•10L/28R is very commonly used for departures along with 9R.
•9L/27R and 10R do not see anything very heavy (757's at best) for arrivals, and are rarely used for departures.
•22L and 9R are used extensively for departures but rarely for heavies.

Typical west flow:
arrivals simultaneously 27R/27L/28C
departures:28R/22L

Typical east flow:
arrivals simultaneously 10C/10R/9L
departures 10L/9R

Did I muck anything up people? Anybody have things to add/corrections?
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yeogeo
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Re: Chicago Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 10, 2020 3:24 pm

First ORD LATAM Cargo aircraft in the A-net database :thumbsup: !
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kbmiflyer
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Re: Chicago Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 10, 2020 3:25 pm

yeogeo wrote:
Typical west flow:
arrivals simultaneously 27R/27L/28C
departures:28R/22L

Typical east flow:
arrivals simultaneously 10C/10R/9L
departures 10L/9R

Did I muck anything up people? Anybody have things to add/corrections?


This is pretty accurate. If the clouds are low, east flow will be 10C / 9R / 9L arrivals and 10L / 9R departures with 9R doing double duty.
 
dopplerd
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Re: Chicago Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Jan 11, 2020 3:29 pm

Currently ORD is running an uncommon flow due to winds at 24 knots gusting to 39 knots from the northeast. Takoffs are on 4L and landings on 4R.
 
FTMCPIUS
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Re: Chicago Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Jan 11, 2020 5:22 pm

dopplerd wrote:
Currently ORD is running an uncommon flow due to winds at 24 knots gusting to 39 knots from the northeast. Takoffs are on 4L and landings on 4R.

Heavies on 10L but long delays due to 4R traffic.
 
dopplerd
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Re: Chicago Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Jan 11, 2020 5:56 pm

Some 777 and 747 departing on 4L.

OZ248 from Chicago to Atlanta https://fr24.com/AAR248/237d80b5

CZ432 from Chicago to Shanghai https://fr24.com/CSN432/237d24e9
 
ckfred
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Re: Chicago Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Jan 11, 2020 9:05 pm

chidino wrote:
Regarding the various VAL systems: only O'Hare and Taipei (as well as the deceased install in Jacksonville, where O'Hare did buy the rolling stock) used the wider VAL 256 standard. So O'Hare has an orphan which Siemens (who now uses Matra's patents) is not pursuing, even though a successor to VAL 206/208 has been introduced as NeoVAL. I wonder what former politician or fixer sold the city this lonely disaster back in the mid '80s (bids were due in March, 1985: https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-xpm-1985-03-30-8501170991-story.html)


I seem to recall that when the Aviation Department bid out the ATS, there were two groups that were angry. First were taxpayer groups who couldn't understand why an American manufacturer wasn't selected. Now, the passenger rail car business in the U.S. was dying in the 1970s and 1980s, and there was nothing innovative at the time coming from the likes of Budd and Pullman-Standard. The CTA had gotten flack for buying buses made in West Germany, even though they were articulated buses with additional capacity that Flxible and GMC did not offer.

Second, the unions in Chicago were upset. At the time in 1985, every CTA train, regardless of length or time of day, had a motorman who operated a train and a conductor who called out the stops on the PA and opened and closed the doors. There were all unionized. So, to have an automated system meant no operators running the trains and no conductors to call out the stops at the terminals and remote parking, as well as open and closing doors. That was a lot of union jobs that never existed.
 
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Amwest2United
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Re: Chicago Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Jan 12, 2020 1:39 am

KORD-4R - Takeoff1.jpg

Not sure in the many years that I have been watching Take-off's and Landings at O'Hare have I ever seen a flight depart Runway 4R, seen many land on 4R. I am sure it has happened and maybe more than I know.
Life is what happens to you while you making plans to live it!
 
wildwobby
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Re: Chicago Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Jan 12, 2020 2:40 am

Emirates 235 diverting to Rockford
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/UAE235

Qatar Air Cargo 8184 diverting all the way to Washington Dulles
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/QTR8184

Currently, only 4L is open with condition 3/3/3
A319 A320 A321 A346 A380 B712 B733 B735 B736 B737 B738 B748 B739 B752 B753 B763 B772 B77W B788 CONC CRJ2 CRJ7 CRJ9 DC10 E120 E145 F100 MD80 MD83 MD88 MD90
 
gabik001
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Re: Chicago Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Jan 12, 2020 3:49 am

Got some departures over my windows from 4L...
Canon 50D gripped + Canon 70D + 17-40 L + 24-105 L IS + 50 f/1.8 STM + 100-400L IS USM + Sigma 150-600 S
 
gabik001
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Re: Chicago Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Jan 12, 2020 3:52 am

Amwest2United wrote:
KORD-4R - Takeoff1.jpg
Not sure in the many years that I have been watching Take-off's and Landings at O'Hare have I ever seen a flight depart Runway 4R, seen many land on 4R. I am sure it has happened and maybe more than I know.


I would love to see arrival on 4L...
Got some pictures of departures from 4R and never seen departures from 22R...
Canon 50D gripped + Canon 70D + 17-40 L + 24-105 L IS + 50 f/1.8 STM + 100-400L IS USM + Sigma 150-600 S
 
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yeogeo
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Re: Chicago Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Jan 12, 2020 5:32 pm

Update on the UA 787-10 N12010 that came in on the day before Christmas and spent the holidays at O'Hare here:

https://www.flightradar24.com/data/airc ... 0#235e6052

On the 2 Jan - in beautiful light! - First revenue flight ORD-DEN:


Since then she's gone on to see the world:
2-3 Jan ORD-DEN-ORD X2
5 Jan ORD-EWR
6 Jan EWR-SFO
8-10 Jan SFO-HND-SFO X2
11-12 Jan SFO-EWR-DUB-EWR-SFO-AKL

Both -9's and -10's will be operating some UA ORD-European routes this summer, so she should be back.
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JetAwayDrew
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Re: Chicago Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Jan 12, 2020 8:33 pm

Thanks for all the info guys, but does anyone know specific locations / addresses we can go to spot? Thanks. :)
 
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yeogeo
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Re: Chicago Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Jan 12, 2020 11:57 pm

Speaking of 787-10's in good light at O'Hare...

...Matt Kostelnick was lucky to catch this big blue bird on New Year's Day.
Normally, KLM operates 787-9's on ORD-AMS since the they discontinued 747 service to O'Hare on the 25th October last year.
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gabik001
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Re: Chicago Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jan 13, 2020 2:33 am

JetAwayDrew wrote:
Thanks for all the info guys, but does anyone know specific locations / addresses we can go to spot? Thanks. :)

There are numerous locations around, some of them are limited to non ORD AW members. Eg. The Hill (contruction site near Access Rd/ Irving Pk intersection) but is limited to members (Cabo Construction resides there and they not like when there are non member spotters there), Schiller Pk Metra station - this might work for all, Scott S t/ Lawrence - should work too, McDonald's at Higgins / Mannheim. Well, it is difficult for me as a ORD AW member to tell anyone that is not a member where to go...
Canon 50D gripped + Canon 70D + 17-40 L + 24-105 L IS + 50 f/1.8 STM + 100-400L IS USM + Sigma 150-600 S
 
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yeogeo
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Re: Chicago Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jan 13, 2020 1:16 pm

gabik001 wrote:
JetAwayDrew wrote:
Thanks for all the info guys, but does anyone know specific locations / addresses we can go to spot? Thanks. :)

There are numerous locations around, some of them are limited to non ORD AW members. Eg. The Hill (contruction site near Access Rd/ Irving Pk intersection) but is limited to members (Cabo Construction resides there and they not like when there are non member spotters there), Schiller Pk Metra station - this might work for all, Scott S t/ Lawrence - should work too, McDonald's at Higgins / Mannheim. Well, it is difficult for me as a ORD AW member to tell anyone that is not a member where to go...


Excuse me for jumping in here, Gabriel, but If anyone's wondering what "ORD AW members" refers to, see:
https://www.ordairportwatch.org
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yeogeo
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Re: Chicago Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jan 13, 2020 2:31 pm

yeogeo wrote:
Seems Ethiopian has gone triple seven.
From Dec 1 to Jan 1 (23 r/ts), ET575 has operated the 77L 16 times, with 5 788 & two 789 roundtrips.


^^An ET 77L departing ORD on Dec 21.


Update: Today's ET574 is back to 788 after 20+ roundtrips with the 77L over an extended holiday season.

Incidentally, on 24Dec ET's 77L ET-ANQ performed a non-stop ADD-ORD, doing without the usual stop in Ireland west-bound, landing at O'Hare at 3:55am on Christmas day.
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chidino
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Re: Chicago Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jan 13, 2020 9:40 pm

Latest bid package:

Bid Package #3, Elevated Parking Structure Restoration

Pre-Qualification Notice Date:
Monday, January 13, 2020

AECOM Hunt Clayco JV has been selected as the CMR for the restoration of the elevated parking structure at O'Hare International Airport.

The project includes:

Partial and full depth slab and joist repairs
Routing and sealing of cracks
Removal and replacement of damaged expansion joints and trench drains
Post tensioning repairs
Waterproofing membrane restoration and repair
Pavement markings
Fencing replacement

I hadn't heard about this, but I'm very glad: the main parking structure is looking very rough. I hadn't noticed as much degradation of the structure itself, but the rust, the fencing, and the basic external condition gave it a down-at-the-heels feel.
 
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yeogeo
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Re: Chicago Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jan 13, 2020 11:42 pm

chidino wrote:
Latest bid package:

Bid Package #3, Elevated Parking Structure Restoration
AECOM Hunt Clayco JV has been selected as the CMR for the restoration of the elevated parking structure at O'Hare International Airport.


How old is that thing?
Good times: in high school would borrow my Dad's LeMans and drive out to the top floor to spot - mostly in the late afternoon to catch the Europeans landing on 22R - this back in the 70's... never once approached by security. Seemed newish back then - built in the 60's or early 70's??
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ORDfan
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Re: Chicago Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Jan 14, 2020 12:15 am

chidino wrote:
Latest bid package:

Bid Package #3, Elevated Parking Structure Restoration

Pre-Qualification Notice Date:
Monday, January 13, 2020

AECOM Hunt Clayco JV has been selected as the CMR for the restoration of the elevated parking structure at O'Hare International Airport.

The project includes:

Partial and full depth slab and joist repairs
Routing and sealing of cracks
Removal and replacement of damaged expansion joints and trench drains
Post tensioning repairs
Waterproofing membrane restoration and repair
Pavement markings
Fencing replacement

I hadn't heard about this, but I'm very glad: the main parking structure is looking very rough. I hadn't noticed as much degradation of the structure itself, but the rust, the fencing, and the basic external condition gave it a down-at-the-heels feel.


Yep it can definitely use some sprucing up. I would love to see them bring back/keep the flower planter boxes along the guard rails, on the terminal sides. It seems like they've been removing them over the years. I'm blanking right now: did they remove the planter boxes on the side facing the main entrance? I think those are still there. But the Midway rentar car garage has them and it creates a really nice effect in the spring and summer.

yeogeo wrote:
How old is that thing?
Good times: in high school would borrow my Dad's LeMans and drive out to the top floor to spot - mostly in the late afternoon to catch the Europeans landing on 22R - this back in the 70's... never once approached by security. Seemed newish back then - built in the 60's or early 70's??


Last time I was up there was a couple years ago, and I did feel a little funny being up there - thinking I might get approached by security. I wasn't taking pictures, just watching planes, but still, I felt a little weird about it. I wish that wasn't the case, but that's the way it is nowadays: but it is still a great view of airfield. Anyway, I wasn't approached by security, but I only stayed up there for 15-20 minutes. Now sure how it is now.

Has anyone been spotting up there more recently?
 
ORDfan
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Re: Chicago Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Jan 14, 2020 12:16 am

 
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yeogeo
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Re: Chicago Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Jan 14, 2020 12:40 am

ORDfan wrote:


Midway: Yikes! hardly a positive number. The best one can say is that they're at least negative numbers in the single digits.

O'Hare: Eking out a bit of growth, but int'l cargo is taking a hit. No surprise, frankly.

Thanks for posting, ORDfan
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yeogeo
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Re: Chicago Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Jan 14, 2020 12:52 am

yeogeo wrote:
chidino wrote:
Latest bid package:

Bid Package #3, Elevated Parking Structure Restoration
AECOM Hunt Clayco JV has been selected as the CMR for the restoration of the elevated parking structure at O'Hare International Airport.


How old is that thing?

(answering my own question)
46 years old.

"A six-level parking facility was opened in 1974, bringing O'Hare International Airport's parking capacity to 9,300 cars. That same year, a pedestrian tunnel system linking the parking structure, O'Hare Hilton Hotel and the terminal complex was also completed."

https://www.flychicago.com/business/CDA ... OHare.aspx
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