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User avatar
Devilfish
Posts: 6823
Joined: Tue Jan 24, 2006 7:52 am

Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu May 21, 2020 3:18 am

Devilfish wrote:
And given the current crisis, that PR wish is fading faster further by the day.

It seems the situation is getting more dire as time passes..... :scared:

https://www.philstar.com/business/2020/ ... -loss-2019

https://www.philstar.com/business/2020/ ... -more-half


.....that MIA beat SAN in landing a PR plane first..... :ill:

"Everyone is entitled to my opinion." - Garfield
 
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Coronado990
Posts: 1467
Joined: Fri Oct 24, 2003 2:12 am

Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu May 21, 2020 1:23 pm

Devilfish wrote:
Devilfish wrote:
And given the current crisis, that PR wish is fading faster further by the day.

It seems the situation is getting more dire as time passes..... :scared:

https://www.philstar.com/business/2020/ ... -loss-2019

https://www.philstar.com/business/2020/ ... -more-half


.....that MIA beat SAN in landing a PR plane first..... :ill:



All of us in SAN just thought it was a logical move since over 200,000 Filipinos live in our community...one of the largest in the U.S. Anyway, I've seen PAL land at SAN before, just never a scheduled flight. I guess SAN is not prestigious enough for PAL and is just part of L.A. to them..
We're up.
 
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VCVSpotter
Posts: 181
Joined: Mon May 04, 2020 6:10 am

Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu May 21, 2020 2:29 pm

Looks like the Swift Air 737-800 (N820TJ) that passed through VCV the other day lost (a small) part of its tail in flight on the VCV-SAN leg. :shock:

https://www.instagram.com/p/CAbkRsnhQNo/?hl=en
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... edit#gid=0

Just a normal teenager juggling AP classes and Airplanes. No biggie.
 
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SANFan
Posts: 5296
Joined: Sun Aug 06, 2006 10:10 am

Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu May 21, 2020 8:34 pm

Devilfish wrote:
And given the current crisis, that PR wish is fading faster further by the day. It seems the situation is getting more dire as time passes.....

Coronado990 wrote:
All of us in SAN just thought it was a logical move since over 200,000 Filipinos live in our community...one of the largest in the U.S. Anyway, I've seen PAL land at SAN before, just never a scheduled flight. I guess SAN is not prestigious enough for PAL and is just part of L.A. to them..

Yup, after the last rejection of SAN by PR earlier this year or late last year using the reasoning exactly as you stated, Coronado', "San Diego is just a suburb of LA and can easily be handled by our LA flights" (an attitude thankfully not shared by, oh, for example, BA, JL or LH), I've officially given up on ever seeing the Sunburst as a regular visitor at SDIA. I think it's a shame and may well be eventually regretted by the management at PAL.

That being said, I wish the airline the best in making it through the current (and future) crises. (I will be very curious to see how they do in SEA, should that route ever begin.)

Devil', I hope you will continue to drop by our thread from time to time; your thoughts are always welcome here!

bb
 
SANMAN66
Posts: 963
Joined: Thu Aug 10, 2006 1:37 pm

Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri May 22, 2020 3:19 am

SANFan wrote:
I've officially given up on ever seeing the Sunburst as a regular visitor at SDIA.
bb


I've already given up of seeing PR service at SAN. Especially when JL started up SAN-NRT. From what
I've heard, JL is doing a bang-up job of Shuttling
SAN pax to MNL , connecting through NRT. I had
wondered if SAN did get PR service after all, would it affect the NRT flight by luring away MNL bound pax
from JL?
PSA Gives you a lift!
 
SANMAN66
Posts: 963
Joined: Thu Aug 10, 2006 1:37 pm

Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri May 22, 2020 3:25 am

VCVSpotter wrote:
Looks like the Swift Air 737-800 (N820TJ) that passed through VCV the other day lost (a small) part of its tail in flight on the VCV-SAN leg. :


Wow! That looks bad! Apparently the pilots didn't realize they lost part of the tail while flying. I'm glad no one was hurt, except the plane!
PSA Gives you a lift!
 
User avatar
SANFan
Posts: 5296
Joined: Sun Aug 06, 2006 10:10 am

Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri May 22, 2020 9:55 pm

SANMAN66 wrote:
I've already given up of seeing PR service at SAN. Especially when JL started up SAN-NRT. From what I've heard, JL is doing a bang-up job of shuttling
SAN pax to MNL , connecting through NRT. I had wondered if SAN did get PR service after all, would it affect the NRT flight by luring away MNL bound pax from JL?

I wonder how much military traffic there might be between MNL and SAN? Anyone know if there is a significant amount of such?

Actually, I'd love to find out what is the total daily traffic count between the two cities, especially INCLUDING those who use LAX as their CA airport (those flying PR)? I assume PR has arrived at such a figure of the TOTAL travelers each day who begin their journey in the Philippines and who's destination is the greater San Diego area. In fact, I bet SDIA would have such a stat as well. That would be a very interesting fact to learn...

It seems that SDIA has spent a lot of time (over many years) and effort going after PR and direct service to MNL. Heck, they almost succeeded back in 2008 so I'm betting they feel the amount of traffic is well worth the effort. (And I'm betting the military is part of reason.)

bb
 
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hawaiian717
Posts: 3436
Joined: Tue May 18, 1999 2:46 am

Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat May 23, 2020 6:01 am

SANFan wrote:
I wonder how much military traffic there might be between MNL and SAN? Anyone know if there is a significant amount of such?


Shouldn’t matter much to PR. Because of the Fly America Act, US military and other government travelers are required to fly US airlines. Codeshares do count, so in order to compete for that traffic, they’d have to work with a US airline to place the US airline’s code on the PR flight. For FY20, Delta has the city pair contract for the route, which suggests there’s enough traffic for airlines to bid on the route, which means PR’s US partner would also have to win the bid or they wouldn’t get any traffic. That seems like a lot to gamble on happening if they’re planning on military traffic to support a SAN flight.
 
User avatar
Devilfish
Posts: 6823
Joined: Tue Jan 24, 2006 7:52 am

Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat May 23, 2020 2:23 pm

SANMAN66 wrote:
I've already given up of seeing PR service at SAN. Especially when JL started up SAN-NRT. From what I've heard, JL is doing a bang-up job of Shuttling SAN pax to MNL, connecting through NRT. I had wondered if SAN did get PR service after all, would it affect the NRT flight by luring away MNL bound pax from JL?

MNL doesn't have the premium traffic that NRT has...so mostly the back-fillers who are not terminating at NRT. PR couldn't live on that alone for such a long route, direct or nonstop.


SANFan wrote:
Yup, after the last rejection of SAN by PR earlier this year or late last year using the reasoning exactly as you stated, Coronado', "San Diego is just a suburb of LA and can easily be handled by our LA flights" (an attitude thankfully not shared by, oh, for example, BA, JL or LH)

I sure would like to read if PR really put it as indelicately as that. After all, they were the ones listing SAN as a possible destination.

SANFan wrote:
Actually, I'd love to find out what is the total daily traffic count between the two cities, especially INCLUDING those who use LAX as their CA airport (those flying PR)?

Me too. I'm guessing there's a small percentage transiting through ONT on Eva Air?


hawaiian717 wrote:
Shouldn’t matter much to PR. Because of the Fly America Act, US military and other government travelers are required to fly US airlines. Codeshares do count, so in order to compete for that traffic, they’d have to work with a US airline to place the US airline’s code on the PR flight. For FY20, Delta has the city pair contract for the route, which suggests there’s enough traffic for airlines to bid on the route, which means PR’s US partner would also have to win the bid or they wouldn’t get any traffic. That seems like a lot to gamble on happening if they’re planning on military traffic to support a SAN flight.

There may be some demand left but only a shade of what it used to be when Space A on MAC flights were hard to come by. Besides, with PR's prospective partner hurting and COVID-19 raging...it's a huge ask.
"Everyone is entitled to my opinion." - Garfield
 
User avatar
SANFan
Posts: 5296
Joined: Sun Aug 06, 2006 10:10 am

Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat May 23, 2020 7:33 pm

I just saw the April 2020 pax stats for SDIA; nothing surprising but fascinating and horrifying -- kind of like watching a train wreck happen right in front of you... Gulp.

Total pax traffic for Apr 2020: 74,682! In April 2019, the TL was 2,089,139; that represents a 96.4% drop y-o-y!
Total int'l traffic for Apr 2020: 436! (That's right Four Hundred Thirty Six int'l pax used SAN!) The total in April 2019 was 86,805; that's a decrease of 99.5%!
(SAN.org explained that JL flew in and out of SAN for the first half of April, then stopped. That explains the "high" number of int'l pax for the month... Lordy.)

Interestingly, the Scheduled Seats Available in Apr 2020 were 1,324,548 while April 2019 offered 2,505,433 seats; so this April was 47% less than a year ago with a resulting LF this year (April) of 10.5%! (In other words, the seats available last month were half of last year but the bodies in those seats were 96% fewer. That's why we were/are hearing horror stories of flights with 4 or 5 pax on board...) By the way, that 10.5% LF represented a 75% decrease y-o-y.

TL cargo - domestic and int'l -- only decreased 10.4% so there was some activity on the field overall. (But understandably int'l cargo by itself was down 81%.)

Air carrier arrivals and departures totaled 5,169, down 69.4% y-o-y so there were definitely more planes visiting here than the number of pax justified!

Another particularly interesting set of facts: market share for April (now referred to as "seat share" by the SAN.org folks) for the top 5 cx were:
WN - 61.1%
AA - 12.5%
AS - 9.9%
UA - 6.2%
DL - 5.7%

By now you know where to find the complete report if you have the stomach for it.

bb
 
User avatar
SANFan
Posts: 5296
Joined: Sun Aug 06, 2006 10:10 am

Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun May 24, 2020 3:27 am

Devilfish wrote:
SANFan wrote:
Yup, after the last rejection of SAN by PR earlier this year or late last year using the reasoning exactly as you stated, Coronado', "San Diego is just a suburb of LA and can easily be handled by our LA flights" (an attitude thankfully not shared by, oh, for example, BA, JL or LH)

I sure would like to read if PR really put it as indelicately as that. After all, they were the ones listing SAN as a possible destination.

I didn't read that anywhere Devil'; it was a verbal comment, second hand, and I'm sure, paraphrased, but from a reliable source. I apologize that I didn't spell out the source.

Thanks, as always, for your thoughts.

bb
 
vedatil4
Posts: 112
Joined: Thu Sep 17, 2015 4:38 pm

Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun May 24, 2020 11:53 am

SANFan wrote:
I just saw the April 2020 pax stats for SDIA; nothing surprising but fascinating and horrifying -- kind of like watching a train wreck happen right in front of you... Gulp.

Total pax traffic for Apr 2020: 74,682! In April 2019, the TL was 2,089,139; that represents a 96.4% drop y-o-y!
Total int'l traffic for Apr 2020: 436! (That's right Four Hundred Thirty Six int'l pax used SAN!) The total in April 2019 was 86,805; that's a decrease of 99.5%!
(SAN.org explained that JL flew in and out of SAN for the first half of April, then stopped. That explains the "high" number of int'l pax for the month... Lordy.)

Interestingly, the Scheduled Seats Available in Apr 2020 were 1,324,548 while April 2019 offered 2,505,433 seats; so this April was 47% less than a year ago with a resulting LF this year (April) of 10.5%! (In other words, the seats available last month were half of last year but the bodies in those seats were 96% fewer. That's why we were/are hearing horror stories of flights with 4 or 5 pax on board...) By the way, that 10.5% LF represented a 75% decrease y-o-y.

TL cargo - domestic and int'l -- only decreased 10.4% so there was some activity on the field overall. (But understandably int'l cargo by itself was down 81%.)

Air carrier arrivals and departures totaled 5,169, down 69.4% y-o-y so there were definitely more planes visiting here than the number of pax justified!

Another particularly interesting set of facts: market share for April (now referred to as "seat share" by the SAN.org folks) for the top 5 cx were:
WN - 61.1%
AA - 12.5%
AS - 9.9%
UA - 6.2%
DL - 5.7%

By now you know where to find the complete report if you have the stomach for it.

bb


Thanks for sharing. The drop was far worse than I imagined. The financial damage for the airlines, tourism industry, and convention center are just tremendous. It's like a fly getting hit by a wrecking ball.

I'm gonna miss sitting in a chair in the sky travelling at high speed in a metal tube full of dangerous propellants.
 
User avatar
SANFan
Posts: 5296
Joined: Sun Aug 06, 2006 10:10 am

Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon May 25, 2020 11:07 am

Today the OAG thread revealed many changes to the AS schedules for June and for SAN, that means many fewer flights than were showing just yesterday for the same time
period.

All Hawaii service has now been dropped for June, all transcons are dropped except for EWR; both Mexico routes return, and the major intra-CA markets -- SJC, SMF, SFO -- see increases in service. The rest of the intrastate flights continue to see service except SBP which remains shut down. RDM is still not operating and somewhat surprisingly, AUS service has been dropped next month.

Unfortunately, even though many flights have already been dropped for June, those flights and routes showing as of today are not that certain to actually operate. I'm sure AS and all other cx will continue to make last minute adjustments to the schedules and eliminate flights with ridiculously low bookings, and reduce some flights from daily operations to only a few days per week. However, I am hopeful that schedules and service will overall continue to increase as the year goes on. Maybe we have bottomed out in April and even the May numbers will show improvement!

As was shown in the April pax stats that I posted upthread, WN carried about 61% of the traffic at SDIA so I expect to see more routes and frequencies from them too.

bb
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