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qf789
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Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2020

Tue Dec 31, 2019 3:48 pm

Welcome to Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2020. Please continue to add your comments below

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jplatts
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2020

Tue Dec 31, 2019 6:13 pm

The lack of RIC-MDW nonstop service is one of the biggest network holes that needs to be addressed by WN once WN has more planes in its fleet.

Here are the Q2 2019 PDEW's of RIC-CHI compared to some markets already served nonstop from both MDW and ORD:
RIC-CHI - 226
SDF-CHI - 220
ABQ-CHI - 192
OKC-CHI - 191
TUS-CHI - 173
BHM-CHI - 170
ALB-CHI - 159

RIC can likely support nonstop service to MDW on WN if SDF, ABQ, OKC, TUS, BHM, and ALB can support nonstop service to both MDW and ORD with RIC already having higher PDEW's to Chicago than SDF, ABQ, OKC, TUS, BHM, or ALB. RIC also carried more domestic passengers than SDF, TUS, BHM, or ALB did in the October 2018 - September 2019 time period.

RIC would also gain 1-stop connecting service to at least 14 additional contiguous U.S. markets on WN if WN adds RIC-MDW nonstop service, including ABQ, CVG, DTW, GRR, SDF, MSP, OKC, OMA, PDX, SMF, SLC, and SEA. Almost all of the other WN stations in the contiguous U.S. already have 1-stop connecting service to most of these 14 destinations on WN.

In addition to O&D and 1-stop connectivity to additional contiguous U.S. markets, WN adding RIC-MDW nonstop service would also give passengers additional 1-stop connecting options to RIC from destinations that already have 1-stop connecting service to RIC on WN through ATL.
 
wnflyguy
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2020

Tue Dec 31, 2019 6:15 pm

Predictions for 2020.
If the MAX grounding is lifted.
Nothing major for the current summer time schedule out for sale.
AUG I can see the ETOPS process start for the MAX8 and MAX7.
Fall and Winter schedule new cities.
International we will finally see the delayed since the hurricane damages SXM. With a daily FLL-SXM and Saturday only BWI-SXM.

Domestic I see either COS or FAT .

Nov/Dec schedule I think you will see the NG Etops stay strictly out west.
This will allow them to add a daily flight to 1 HNL-ONT and 1 HNL-OGG.
OAK-HNL will Jump to 5 a day on weekdays 4 day on weekends.
SAT/SUN only could possibly see 1 HNL-LGB and 1 OGG-LGB.
HNL-OGG jumps up to 10 a day.
1 daily ITO-OAK.
DEN will see more connecting of the dots with a daily flight to ISP,MHT,PWM,RIC,DSM and ROC.

NOW if the MAX grounding keeps going. WN will make a play for Either JetBlue or Spirit to diversify it's fleet quicker than going organic.

Flyguy
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MIflyer12
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2020

Tue Dec 31, 2019 6:34 pm

jplatts wrote:
The lack of RIC-MDW nonstop service is one of the biggest network holes that needs to be addressed by WN once WN has more planes in its fleet.

Here are the Q2 2019 PDEW's of RIC-CHI compared to some markets already served nonstop from both MDW and ORD:
RIC-CHI - 226
SDF-CHI - 220
ABQ-CHI - 192
OKC-CHI - 191
TUS-CHI - 173
BHM-CHI - 170
ALB-CHI - 159


Do you want to keep pretending that there's no non-stop competition on those routes, that nobody is willing to connect? PDEWs without citing competition to same or competing airports lacks vital context. Every city pair you list there has non-stops on it by UA and/or AA - some have many.
 
flyfresno
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2020

Tue Dec 31, 2019 6:41 pm

wnflyguy wrote:
Domestic I see either COS or FAT.


Both are probably highly dependent on the MAX issues getting resolved. Also, working against FAT, WN would probably have to share a gate or gates with another airline, which I know is a big negative for them. The next expansion isn't supposed to open for two years, and is only 2 new gates. COS seems much better positioned, especially from a "spare gates" standpoint. I could easily see a combination of MDW/DAL/PHX/LAS from there.
 
jplatts
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2020

Tue Dec 31, 2019 7:16 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
Do you want to keep pretending that there's no non-stop competition on those routes, that nobody is willing to connect? PDEWs without citing competition to same or competing airports lacks vital context. Every city pair you list there has non-stops on it by UA and/or AA - some have many.


AA, UA, and WN all already serve SDF, ABQ, OKC, TUS, BHM, and ALB nonstop from Chicago, even though these 6 markets had lower PDEW's from Chicago than RIC did. On the other hand, AA and UA are currently the only airlines serving RIC nonstop from the Chicago market, even with RIC having more O&D demand than a few other cities that AA, DL, and WN all serve nonstop from Chicago.

The PDEW's that I listed for Q2 2019 on RIC-CHI and other routes out of CHI also include both ORD and MDW.

I understand that there are some passengers who are willing to connect to Chicago from RIC on DL or WN, but the lack of RIC-MDW nonstop service on WN is a huge hole for reasons beyond just RIC-CHI O&D traffic or the lack of nonstop LCC service to Chicago from RIC. RIC currently also lacks 1-stop connecting service on WN to some destinations that already have 1-stop connecting service from almost all of the other WN stations in the contiguous U.S on WN.

There are certain times of year when DAL-RIC only has one 1-stop connecting option on WN due to the timing of WN DAL-RIC and ATL-RIC nonstop flights, even with DAL having 5 to 6 daily nonstops to ATL on WN, whereas most of the other contiguous U.S. markets served by WN either have daily nonstop service out of DAL or multiple 1-stop connecting options out of DAL on WN. The same also probably holds true in some of the other markets that have multiple daily nonstops to ATL on WN.

Most of the destinations west of the Mississippi that WN serves nonstop from both MDW and ATL have more daily nonstops to MDW on WN than to ATL on WN. In addition to providing an additional 1-stop connecting option from RIC on WN to destinations that currently have 1-stop connecting service from RIC, WN adding RIC-MDW nonstop service would also allow for shorter layovers on connections and WN would also be able to more easily re-accommodate missed connections to destinations west of the Mississippi from RIC at MDW if WN adds RIC-MDW nonstop service.
 
jplatts
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2020

Tue Dec 31, 2019 8:35 pm

flyfresno wrote:
wnflyguy wrote:
Domestic I see either COS or FAT.


Both are probably highly dependent on the MAX issues getting resolved. Also, working against FAT, WN would probably have to share a gate or gates with another airline, which I know is a big negative for them. The next expansion isn't supposed to open for two years, and is only 2 new gates. COS seems much better positioned, especially from a "spare gates" standpoint. I could easily see a combination of MDW/DAL/PHX/LAS from there.


The Greensboro/Winston Salem/High Point CSA is larger by population than Colorado Springs or Fresno and currently lacks service on WN. The population of the Greensboro/Winston Salem/High Point CSA is 1,677,551 compared to the Fresno CSA population of 1,303,438 or the Colorado Springs MSA population of 723,878.

GSO might be far enough from both RDU and CLT to support WN service with GSO being 79 miles from RDU and 102 miles from CLT (by driving distance). While AUS and SAT are closer to each other (by driving distance) than GSO and RDU are, WN serves both AUS and SAT due to (a) both AUS and SAT being in larger metro areas (by population) than GSO, (b) WN serving SAT since beginning operations in 1971, (c) AUS being one of the first destinations outside of DAL/HOU/SAT that was served by WN, and (d) both AUS and SAT having significantly more demand for domestic air travel than GSO does.

There was even a post back from March 2014 in the Airliners.net forums (which can be found at https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=569967#p8442255) which said that GSO is an important business market and population center that WN will probably serve at some point.

There are also some other markets larger than COS that aren't currently served by WN such as TYS, CHA, CAE, BFL, HSV, LEX, and SYR.
 
flyfresno
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2020

Wed Jan 08, 2020 8:02 pm

jplatts wrote:
There are also some other markets larger than COS that aren't currently served by WN such as TYS, CHA, CAE, BFL, HSV, LEX, and SYR.


Sadly, BFL is definitely NOT a candidate for WN service anytime soon, and I would almost guarantee that COS is (far) above it on WN's priorities list. Despite both cities being within fairly close driving distance of at least one major international airport (and both of which have weather and traffic issues), and the BFL MSA being larger than COS, COS saw north of 1.7 million pax in 2018, while BFL barely eclipsed 210,000 pax that same year. I can't see WN even considering BFL until they get close to 2M pax per year, which is probably a long ways off. Many of your other suggestions are well taken. Just for comparison, here's how some airports (both with and without WN service) ranked by total total pax in 2018:

88. SYR
89. GSP (WN)
91. TYS
93. MSN
94. LIT (WN)
96. GSO
99. FAT
100. COS
101. ICT (WN)
111. LEX
117. HSV
121. CAE
231. BFL

Also, I realize there are some airports closer to BFL's size that have WN service, but WN makes up the majority of the seats at these airports (like HRL) and has been established at many of them for years, so it's hard to compare the two. Also, while total pax is not the end-all, be-all of getting any airline, I think it's the largest factor when there is this big of a discrepancy.
 
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Veigar
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2020

Wed Jan 08, 2020 10:42 pm

Once MAX is back, should we expect to see a LAS-HNL route ?
 
DakotaFlyer
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2020

Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:12 pm

I'm sure the answer is no, but once Southwest has more capacity would FAR ever be considered? I would not only attract the Fargo MSA, but also Grand Forks, Winnipeg, maybe Bismarck and large portion of western MN/Northern SD. Perhaps a flight to 2x to Chicago, Denver, and 1x Houston
 
jplatts
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2020

Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:17 pm

Veigar wrote:
Once MAX is back, should we expect to see a LAS-HNL route ?


I agree that WN adding LAS-HNL nonstop service is a possibility once the MAX is back since WN would be able to more easily connect passengers to some destinations further east such as ABQ, ATL, AUS, BWI, MDW, CMH, DAL, FLL, HOU, IND, MCI, SDF, MKE, BNA, OKC, OMA, PIT, STL, and SAT from HNL if WN adds HNL-LAS nonstop service.

WN also would have some O&D traffic on LAS-HNL if WN adds LAS-HNL nonstop service due to (a) WN being able to do an morning departure that gets into Vegas earlier than the HA HNL-LAS afternoon nonstop flight and (b) WN FF's in the LAS market who prefer to fly on WN over other carriers.
 
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OzarkD9S
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2020

Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:32 pm

jplatts wrote:

I agree that WN adding LAS-HNL nonstop service is a possibility once the MAX is back since WN would be able to more easily connect passengers to some destinations further east such as ABQ, ATL, AUS, BWI, MDW, CMH, DAL, FLL, HOU, IND, MCI, SDF, MKE, BNA, OKC, OMA, PIT, STL, and SAT from HNL if WN adds HNL-LAS nonstop service.

WN also would have some O&D traffic on LAS-HNL if WN adds LAS-HNL nonstop service due to (a) WN being able to do an morning departure that gets into Vegas earlier than the HA HNL-LAS afternoon nonstop flight and (b) WN FF's in the LAS market who prefer to fly on WN over other carriers.


Without redeye flying, many of these connections would be impossible in both directions, without some ghastly overnight layovers.
Next up: STL DEN PSP DEN STL
 
jplatts
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2020

Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:57 pm

OzarkD9S wrote:
Without redeye flying, many of these connections would be impossible in both directions, without some ghastly overnight layovers.


A HNL-LAS nonstop flight that departs from HNL at 8:00 AM Hawaii time would allow passengers to connect onto LAS-ABQ, LAS-AUS, LAS-BWI, LAS-MDW, LAS-CMH, LAS-DAL, LAS-FLL, LAS-HOU, LAS-IND, LAS-MCI, LAS-SDF, LAS-MKE, LAS-BNA, LAS-OKC, LAS-OMA, LAS-PIT, LAS-STL, and LAS-SAT nonstop flights that depart after 5:45 PM Pacific Time and arrive at the final destination before 2:00 AM local time.

An 8:00 AM departure to LAS from HNL arrives at LAS around 4:45 PM Pacific Time (when daylight savings time is in effect), giving passengers connecting to Texas, the Midwest, the Southeast, or the Mid-Atlantic from HNL a layover between 1 and 3 1/2 hours at LAS if the HNL-LAS nonstop flight is on time.

As mentioned above, connections to some destinations in Texas, the Midwest, the Southeast, and the Mid-Atlantic from HNL (and vice versa) would be possible without redeye flights if WN operates a morning departure to LAS that departs from HNL before 8:15 AM Hawaii Time. Connections to Texas, the Midwest, the Southeast, and the Mid-Atlantic are even easier to do without redeye flights when DST isn't in effect as Hawaii doesn't observe DST and Hawaii is only 2 hours behind LAS when DST isn't in effect as opposed to 3 hours behind LAS when DST is in effect.

WN operating redeye flights that depart from Hawaii after 11:00 PM Hawaii Time might also be a possibility as WN has some flights departing from destinations in the Eastern U.S. between 11:00 PM and 12:00 AM Hawaii Time when DST is in effect (which would be between 5:00 AM EDT and 6:00 AM EDT).
 
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OzarkD9S
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 09, 2020 12:13 am

jplatts wrote:
OzarkD9S wrote:

Without redeye flying, many of these connections would be impossible in both directions, without some ghastly overnight layovers.


A HNL-LAS nonstop flight that departs from HNL at 8:00 AM Hawaii time would allow passengers to connect onto LAS-ABQ, LAS-AUS, LAS-BWI, LAS-MDW, LAS-CMH, LAS-DAL, LAS-FLL, LAS-HOU, LAS-IND, LAS-MCI, LAS-SDF, LAS-MKE, LAS-BNA, LAS-OKC, LAS-OMA, LAS-PIT, LAS-STL, and LAS-SAT nonstop flights that depart after 5:45 PM Pacific Time and arrive at the final destination before 2:00 AM local time.

An 8:00 AM departure to LAS from HNL arrives at LAS around 4:45 PM Pacific Time (when daylight savings time is in effect), giving passengers connecting to Texas, the Midwest, the Southeast, or the Mid-Atlantic from HNL a layover between 1 and 3 1/2 hours at LAS if the HNL-LAS nonstop flight is on time.

As mentioned above, connections to some destinations in Texas, the Midwest, the Southeast, and the Mid-Atlantic from HNL (and vice versa) would be possible without redeye flights if WN operates a morning departure to LAS that departs from HNL before 8:15 AM Hawaii Time. Connections to Texas, the Midwest, the Southeast, and the Mid-Atlantic are even easier to do without redeye flights when DST isn't in effect as Hawaii doesn't observe DST and Hawaii is only 2 hours behind LAS when DST isn't in effect as opposed to 3 hours behind LAS when DST is in effect.

WN operating redeye flights that depart from Hawaii after 11:00 PM Hawaii Time might also be a possibility as WN has some flights departing from destinations in the Eastern U.S. between 11:00 PM and 12:00 AM Hawaii Time when DST is in effect (which would be between 5:00 AM EDT and 6:00 AM EDT).


You're assuming that all these routings have nonstop or direct flights after the HNL-LAS arrival time, they do not. WN does not operate traditional hubs, yes there is some banking involved at some stations but a station like LAS is rolling, not banked as such. As of now, and in the foreseeable future, any WN connections to and from stations west of the Rockies are gonna be hard to make.
Next up: STL DEN PSP DEN STL
 
jplatts
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 09, 2020 12:17 am

DakotaFlyer wrote:
I'm sure the answer is no, but once Southwest has more capacity would FAR ever be considered? I would not only attract the Fargo MSA, but also Grand Forks, Winnipeg, maybe Bismarck and large portion of western MN/Northern SD. Perhaps a flight to 2x to Chicago, Denver, and 1x Houston


ECP, OGG, KOA, and LIH are the only U.S. markets smaller by population than FAR that are currently served by WN, but all four of these markets are leisure markets that have more demand for domestic air travel than FAR does.

AMA has less demand for domestic air travel than FAR does, but (a) AMA is in a slightly larger metro area (by population) than FAR is, (b) AMA isn't currently served by DL, G4, or F9, and (c) WN has served the AMA market for over 40 years.
 
wnflyguy
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 09, 2020 2:16 am

Veigar wrote:
Once MAX is back, should we expect to see a LAS-HNL route ?

LAS and PHX but it's at least put off to 2021/22 at this rate . It will take 6 to 8 month to qualify the MAX8 and MAX7 for ETOPS.

Flyguy
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jplatts
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 09, 2020 1:50 pm

Why did WN have trouble making HOU-MEX nonstop service work without enough Mexico point-of-sale traffic when AA can make CLT-MEX and PHX-MEX nonstop service work?

AA probably has mostly US point-of-sale traffic on CLT-MEX and PHX-MEX nonstop service like WN did on HOU-MEX prior to WN pulling out of MEX. However, AA's CLT hub is much bigger than WN's HOU focus city, and AA has more connecting opportunities at CLT than WN does at HOU. AA also only operates 1 daily nonstop to MEX out of CLT, whereas WN previously operated 4 daily nonstops on HOU-MEX at its peak. AA also has nonstop service to CLT from Midwestern, Northeastern, and Southeastern destinations that aren't served by WN. AA also inherited its CLT-MEX nonstop route through the AA-US merger.

On the PHX-MEX route, AA only operates 1 daily nonstop route to MEX out of PHX. AA also inherited its PHX-MEX route through the AA-US merger, and US inherited its PHX-MEX route through the US-HP merger.

The CLT-MEX and PHX-MEX nonstop routes have also been around for over 10 years, whereas WN had only been serving MEX nonstop from HOU for almost 3 1/2 years when WN pulled out of MEX.

AA is also the only airline serving MEX nonstop from CLT and PHX, whereas UA, AM, and 4O were all serving MEX nonstop from IAH back when WN operated HOU-MEX nonstop service.

It is also possible that CLT-MEX and PHX-MEX nonstop service might be underperforming for AA, even with AA continuing to operate both of these nonstop routes and with AA currently having no plans to drop nonstop service to MEX from CLT and PHX.
 
jplatts
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 09, 2020 4:01 pm

SK is planning on replacing its 737-700 and 737-800 planes with A320neo planes during the next three years, and WN might be able to possibly acquire some used 737-700's and 737-800's from SK in order to address the plane shortage that WN is currently facing as a result of the 737 MAX grounding.

KL also has plans to retire its 16 737-700's by 2022, and WN might possibly be able to pick up some extra used 737-700's from KL.

X3 and TB also had plans to retire their 737-700's last year, but Wikipedia is still showing TB still having 5 737-700's in its fleet and XB still having 1 737-700 in its fleet.
 
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SANFan
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 09, 2020 4:14 pm

I see lots of discussion about Hawaii service and mainland connections -- especially thru LAS (when that actually happens) and OAK of course.

Just thought I'd remind folks here that the new SAN service which starts this April, has a very connection-friendly schedule. I know that SAN is no LAS or PHX as far as # of WN flight offerings but SAN does have nonstop service to ~36 WN destinations with ~125-130 weekday departures. Here's the start-up sked for SAN-HNL on 4/20:

SAN: 3:40pm #2081 B-738
HNL: 6:45pm

HNL: 9:35am #2085 B-738
SAN: 6:15pm

This timing of flights should satisfy local O&D traffic pretty well and will certainly create many network connecting options. There also seems to be good connectivity to the Outer Islands from/to HNL at these times.

I posted a list last year of the many evening departures from SAN to many WN destinations that would connect from HNL. It appears that WN is definitely going to have network connections in mind as they build HI service at SAN.

bb
 
bob75013
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 09, 2020 5:21 pm

jplatts wrote:
SK is planning on replacing its 737-700 and 737-800 planes with A320neo planes during the next three years, and WN might be able to possibly acquire some used 737-700's and 737-800's from SK in order to address the plane shortage that WN is currently facing as a result of the 737 MAX grounding.

KL also has plans to retire its 16 737-700's by 2022, and WN might possibly be able to pick up some extra used 737-700's from KL.

X3 and TB also had plans to retire their 737-700's last year, but Wikipedia is still showing TB still having 5 737-700's in its fleet and XB still having 1 737-700 in its fleet.


If MAX's are flying by EOY 2020, who cares about used NGs that become available in 2022 and 2023?
 
jplatts
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 09, 2020 5:59 pm

bob75013 wrote:
If MAX's are flying by EOY 2020, who cares about used NGs that become available in 2022 and 2023?


WN might still have a plane shortage at the end of this year due to delays in getting additional 737 MAX's delivered, even if the 737 MAX returns to service this year.

WN also might possibly need used NG's that become available in 2022 and 2023 since (a) WN probably will still have fewer 737 MAX's than expected in 2022 due to production and delivery delays arising from the 737 MAX grounding and (b) WN might still have a need for extra planes beyond any new MAX planes delivered in the next 2 years in 2022 in order to grow its network.
 
Jshank83
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:39 pm

SANFan wrote:
I see lots of discussion about Hawaii service and mainland connections -- especially thru LAS (when that actually happens) and OAK of course.

Just thought I'd remind folks here that the new SAN service which starts this April, has a very connection-friendly schedule. I know that SAN is no LAS or PHX as far as # of WN flight offerings but SAN does have nonstop service to ~36 WN destinations with ~125-130 weekday departures. Here's the start-up sked for SAN-HNL on 4/20:

SAN: 3:40pm #2081 B-738
HNL: 6:45pm

HNL: 9:35am #2085 B-738
SAN: 6:15pm

This timing of flights should satisfy local O&D traffic pretty well and will certainly create many network connecting options. There also seems to be good connectivity to the Outer Islands from/to HNL at these times.

I posted a list last year of the many evening departures from SAN to many WN destinations that would connect from HNL. It appears that WN is definitely going to have network connections in mind as they build HI service at SAN.

bb


WN seems to be holding back some Hawaii-SAN-XXX connections for some reason. Earlier I saw some flights that had plenty of time to connect if you look them up separately but were not offered on a connecting itinerary.
 
jplatts
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jan 12, 2020 11:31 pm

Jshank83 wrote:
WN seems to be holding back some Hawaii-SAN-XXX connections for some reason. Earlier I saw some flights that had plenty of time to connect if you look them up separately but were not offered on a connecting itinerary.


I think that one reason why WN might be holding back some Hawaii-SAN-XXX connections is that WN might have to drop or change flight times of some flights out of SAN due to the current 737 MAX grounding.
 
jplatts
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jan 12, 2020 11:47 pm

bob75013 wrote:
If MAX's are flying by EOY 2020, who cares about used NGs that become available in 2022 and 2023?


There is an article on CNN's website at https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/17/business/boeing-737-max-outlook/index.html that say that operations are not likely to be back to normal for airlines operating the 737 MAX until 2023 or 2024, even if the 737 MAX gets ungrounded this year, due to (a) Boeing having a backlog of approximately 400 undelivered 737 MAX planes, (b) fixes that need to be applied to already manufactured 737 MAX planes that haven't yet been delivered to airlines, (c) fixes that need to be applied to 737 MAX planes that were delivered to airlines prior to the 737 MAX grounding, (d) the FAA planning on certifying each plane individually, and (e) WN and other airlines with 737 MAX's in their fleets needing time to integrate the 737 MAX planes back into their fleets.

WN might need to acquire some used 737-700's from SK or KL in order to minimize operational impacts at WN as things are not likely to be back to normal for WN for at least another 3 to 4 years, even if the 737 MAX is back in service later this year.
 
formeraa
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2020

Sun Jan 12, 2020 11:55 pm

wnflyguy wrote:
Predictions for 2020.
If the MAX grounding is lifted.
Nothing major for the current summer time schedule out for sale.
AUG I can see the ETOPS process start for the MAX8 and MAX7.
Fall and Winter schedule new cities.
International we will finally see the delayed since the hurricane damages SXM. With a daily FLL-SXM and Saturday only BWI-SXM.

Domestic I see either COS or FAT .

Nov/Dec schedule I think you will see the NG Etops stay strictly out west.
This will allow them to add a daily flight to 1 HNL-ONT and 1 HNL-OGG.
OAK-HNL will Jump to 5 a day on weekdays 4 day on weekends.
SAT/SUN only could possibly see 1 HNL-LGB and 1 OGG-LGB.
HNL-OGG jumps up to 10 a day.
1 daily ITO-OAK.
DEN will see more connecting of the dots with a daily flight to ISP,MHT,PWM,RIC,DSM and ROC.

NOW if the MAX grounding keeps going. WN will make a play for Either JetBlue or Spirit to diversify it's fleet quicker than going organic.

Flyguy


Why on earh would they schedule OAK-HNL 5x daily on weekdays and 4x daily on weekends? Hawaii is a leisure market with heavy demand on weekends. If anything, I would expect additional frequencies on the weekend. How about 6x daily on the weekends and 4x daily on weekdays? That would make a lot more sense.
 
Jshank83
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2020

Mon Jan 13, 2020 12:48 am

I don’t want this question to go down a huge rabbit hole of should they/will they, etc.

If WN were to order A220/E195/A32X what is the soonest they could get any of them delivered? Years from now? What’s the backlog?

Again I don’t want to go down a huge rabbit hole with this. Just literally want how quick it could get any of these new?
 
jplatts
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2020

Mon Jan 13, 2020 1:14 am

Jshank83 wrote:
I don’t want this question to go down a huge rabbit hole of should they/will they, etc.

If WN were to order A220/E195/A32X what is the soonest they could get any of them delivered? Years from now? What’s the backlog?

Again I don’t want to go down a huge rabbit hole with this. Just literally want how quick it could get any of these new?


WN will be able to pick up additional used 737-700 and 737-800 planes in the next 4 years with (a) SK replacing its 23 737-700's and 28 737-800's with A320neo planes during the next 4 years and (b) KL planning on retiring its 16 737-700's by 2022.

WN might also be able to acquire 10 737-700's from DL if DL takes delivery of enough A220-300's to replace its 737-700's.

WN can probably get used 737-700's faster than A220, E195-E2, A319neo, or A320neo planes with more used 737-700's becoming available in the next 4 years.
 
Jshank83
Posts: 3563
Joined: Tue Nov 01, 2016 2:23 pm

Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2020

Mon Jan 13, 2020 2:57 am

jplatts wrote:
Jshank83 wrote:
I don’t want this question to go down a huge rabbit hole of should they/will they, etc.

If WN were to order A220/E195/A32X what is the soonest they could get any of them delivered? Years from now? What’s the backlog?

Again I don’t want to go down a huge rabbit hole with this. Just literally want how quick it could get any of these new?


WN will be able to pick up additional used 737-700 and 737-800 planes in the next 4 years with (a) SK replacing its 23 737-700's and 28 737-800's with A320neo planes during the next 4 years and (b) KL planning on retiring its 16 737-700's by 2022.

WN might also be able to acquire 10 737-700's from DL if DL takes delivery of enough A220-300's to replace its 737-700's.

WN can probably get used 737-700's faster than A220, E195-E2, A319neo, or A320neo planes with more used 737-700's becoming available in the next 4 years.


737s have nothing to do with my question.

I just want to know the estimated earliest delivery date for new A220/E195/A32X IF they were to order some.

Again. Trying to keep the scope on this question small so we don’t go down any rabbit holes.
 
jplatts
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2020

Wed Jan 15, 2020 9:06 pm

There were two articles in the Dallas Business Journal this week regarding further expansion of WN's network and WN possibly operating redeye flights in the future:
 
AirFiero
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 16, 2020 12:23 am

jplatts wrote:
There were two articles in the Dallas Business Journal this week regarding further expansion of WN's network and WN possibly operating redeye flights in the future:


The articles are behind a paywall. Can you summarize?
 
Jshank83
Posts: 3563
Joined: Tue Nov 01, 2016 2:23 pm

Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 16, 2020 12:33 am

AirFiero wrote:
jplatts wrote:
There were two articles in the Dallas Business Journal this week regarding further expansion of WN's network and WN possibly operating redeye flights in the future:


The articles are behind a paywall. Can you summarize?


They came up fine for me. If you are on mobile sometime Biz journal is screwy.

Red eyes: maybe some day, kind of danced around it.

How will Southwest's network be different in three years?
My speculation is you're going to see a continued development of some of our focus cities, and they're going to get bigger. From every point on our network, we'd like you to get to every other point on our network easily. We're not saying hub and spoke, we're not going to do that. We're going to leverage bigger operations so that you can connect to every spot.
If you're in Providence, Rhode Island, I'd love to get you to Hawaii. Today, I can't even get you there or back. I want to sell you that service. We're building the network to be able to do that. But we're going to stay true to our roots: a point-to-point carrier.

Has Hawaii performed above or below your expectations?
we've met our expectations so far. We've got loftier expectations for Hawaii, but right now we're meeting expectations and we're exceeding them in some of the routes.
_______________

Domestic flights will continue to be the "primary" driver of growth for Southwest Airlines Co.
Outside of America, Southwest will look at adding destinations in Mexico, Latin America and the Caribbean out of Houston, Kelly said. He also teased another destination.
"I think probably from Houston what would be most exciting ultimately is adding South America access," Kelly said. "I don't see that in the next year or so, but definitely down the road it's something that we would be interested to do. Nothing specific yet."
"The northern part of South America is definitely within reach from Houston," Kelly said. "I would hope someday there's maybe half a dozen destinations that we would be able to serve."
 
tphuang
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 16, 2020 1:19 am

So interesting they are admitting that Houston is their main Latin America hub now. I think FLL will fade back in it's importance to wn.
 
BNAMealer
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Joined: Sat Jul 27, 2019 8:03 pm

Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 16, 2020 3:07 am

Gary Kelly said in the video above there will be about 3 key key cities WN will focus on growing this decade. HOU is one of them, what are the other two?
 
BNAMealer
Posts: 915
Joined: Sat Jul 27, 2019 8:03 pm

Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 16, 2020 3:43 am

tphuang wrote:
So interesting they are admitting that Houston is their main Latin America hub now. I think FLL will fade back in it's importance to wn.


FLL isn’t even a base for WN. I never really understood why they made the investment there.

I’d like to know what 3 cities WN will be focusing on this decade like Kelly said in the video. HOU is one of them, if imagine DEN is another, but what about the third?
 
Vctony
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 16, 2020 4:00 am

BNAMealer wrote:
Gary Kelly said in the video above there will be about 3 key key cities WN will focus on growing this decade. HOU is one of them, what are the other two?


BWI and DEN.
 
BNAMealer
Posts: 915
Joined: Sat Jul 27, 2019 8:03 pm

Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 16, 2020 4:05 am

Vctony wrote:
BNAMealer wrote:
Gary Kelly said in the video above there will be about 3 key key cities WN will focus on growing this decade. HOU is one of them, what are the other two?


BWI and DEN.


I wonder what more they can/will do at BWI. DEN is going to be their largest station and HOU is slowly becoming their Latin America gateway, but what unique feature will BWI have?
 
WaywardMemphian
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 16, 2020 4:23 am

jplatts wrote:
flyfresno wrote:
wnflyguy wrote:
Domestic I see either COS or FAT.


Both are probably highly dependent on the MAX issues getting resolved. Also, working against FAT, WN would probably have to share a gate or gates with another airline, which I know is a big negative for them. The next expansion isn't supposed to open for two years, and is only 2 new gates. COS seems much better positioned, especially from a "spare gates" standpoint. I could easily see a combination of MDW/DAL/PHX/LAS from there.


The Greensboro/Winston Salem/High Point CSA is larger by population than Colorado Springs or Fresno and currently lacks service on WN. The population of the Greensboro/Winston Salem/High Point CSA is 1,677,551 compared to the Fresno CSA population of 1,303,438 or the Colorado Springs MSA population of 723,878.

GSO might be far enough from both RDU and CLT to support WN service with GSO being 79 miles from RDU and 102 miles from CLT (by driving distance). While AUS and SAT are closer to each other (by driving distance) than GSO and RDU are, WN serves both AUS and SAT due to (a) both AUS and SAT being in larger metro areas (by population) than GSO, (b) WN serving SAT since beginning operations in 1971, (c) AUS being one of the first destinations outside of DAL/HOU/SAT that was served by WN, and (d) both AUS and SAT having significantly more demand for domestic air travel than GSO does.

There was even a post back from March 2014 in the Airliners.net forums (which can be found at https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=569967#p8442255) which said that GSO is an important business market and population center that WN will probably serve at some point.

There are also some other markets larger than COS that aren't currently served by WN such as TYS, CHA, CAE, BFL, HSV, LEX, and SYR.



Cough, cough, XNA, cough

https://talkbusiness.net/2020/01/xna-se ... d-in-2019/

(XNA) in Highfill announced Tuesday (Jan. 14) enplanements rose 17% to a record of 922,533 in 2019, from 788,261 in 2018.



The XNA MSA is projected to reach 800k come 2040

https://www.nwahomepage.com/myfox24/web ... rkansas-2/


Add in the lower counties in MO. The Harrison/Eureka Springs area and potential pull from the River Valley/Fort Smith as well.
 
Jshank83
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Joined: Tue Nov 01, 2016 2:23 pm

Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 16, 2020 5:18 am

BNAMealer wrote:
Vctony wrote:
BNAMealer wrote:
Gary Kelly said in the video above there will be about 3 key key cities WN will focus on growing this decade. HOU is one of them, what are the other two?


BWI and DEN.


I wonder what more they can/will do at BWI. DEN is going to be their largest station and HOU is slowly becoming their Latin America gateway, but what unique feature will BWI have?


Didn’t they just open a new maintenance hanger there? And I think they are getting new gates, 8 maybe?

Just a good spot to flow flights up and down the east coast and be a gateway to west destinations to the east coast. Not sure it is anything super special but it’s the station WN decided to make their big east coast hub and they seem to be very committed to keeping it that way and expanding it. Close to DC I am sure helps also.
 
User avatar
Midwestindy
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 16, 2020 11:08 am

MAX cuts have been extended
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
jplatts
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Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 16, 2020 12:54 pm

BNAMealer wrote:
tphuang wrote:
So interesting they are admitting that Houston is their main Latin America hub now. I think FLL will fade back in it's importance to wn.


FLL isn’t even a base for WN. I never really understood why they made the investment there.


WN used to carry more domestic passengers in the MIA/FLL market than any of its LCC or ULCC carriers until Spring 2019, but NK carried more domestic passengers out of FLL than WN did in Spring 2019.

WN still has more market share on domestic air travel in the MIA/FLL market than B6, G4, F9, or SY.

Reasons why WN made an investment at FLL include the following:
(a) WN already had an established customer base in the Miami/Fort Lauderdale market and other contiguous U.S. markets to support additional nonstop routes out of FLL,
(b) WN currently has daily nonstop service to FLL from a few markets not served by NK or B6 such as BZE, MKE, STL, and SAT,
(c) WN was offering connections onto international flights out of FLL from some destinations in the Southeast and Midwest where it didn't make sense to connect through HOU, MDW, or BWI, and
(d) There are a few Caribbean destinations such as GCM, NAS, and PLS that have daily nonstop out of FLL on WN but not out of other international gateways on WN (even though WN does have Saturday-only nonstop service to GCM and NAS out of other international gateways).

HOU does make sense for international connections to Western Mexico from the South, Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast and for international connections to Eastern Mexico, Central America, South America, and the Caribbean from Texas, Oklahoma, and states further west.

BWI does make sense for international connections to (a) Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean from Northeastern U.S. destinations that have nonstop service to BWI on WN and (b) the Caribbean from some Midwestern destinations such as MSP, MKE, MDW, GRR, DTW, CMH, and CLE.
 
jplatts
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 16, 2020 1:10 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
MAX cuts have been extended


I have previously mentioned that WN might be able to pick up some used 737-700's from SK and KL as WN is not likely to be back to normal anytime soon, even if the 737 MAX is back in service by the end of this year.

WN acquiring used 737-700's from DL might also be a possibility if DL plans on getting rid of its 737-700's once it takes delivery of some A220-300 planes.

WN has also now delayed the schedule extension that was originally scheduled for February 11, 2020 to March 12, 2020.
 
SWADawg
Posts: 586
Joined: Tue Dec 03, 2013 6:43 pm

Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 16, 2020 1:19 pm

jplatts wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
MAX cuts have been extended


I have previously mentioned that WN might be able to pick up some used 737-700's from SK and KL as WN is not likely to be back to normal anytime soon, even if the 737 MAX is back in service by the end of this year.

WN acquiring used 737-700's from DL might also be a possibility if DL plans on getting rid of its 737-700's once it takes delivery of some A220-300 planes.

WN has also now delayed the schedule extension that was originally scheduled for February 11, 2020 to March 12, 2020.

WN has already taken every (viable) -700 available. Any -700’s that would be available anytime soon would be very high cycle, and at the end of their usable service life. Right now, it’s get the MAX back in the air, or acquire a competitor. The second option is honestly closer to becoming a reality the longer this grounding drags out.
My posts are my opinion only and do not reflect the views of Southwest Airlines
 
WaywardMemphian
Posts: 1501
Joined: Sat Dec 13, 2014 9:05 pm

Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 16, 2020 1:27 pm

SWADawg wrote:
jplatts wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
MAX cuts have been extended


I have previously mentioned that WN might be able to pick up some used 737-700's from SK and KL as WN is not likely to be back to normal anytime soon, even if the 737 MAX is back in service by the end of this year.

WN acquiring used 737-700's from DL might also be a possibility if DL plans on getting rid of its 737-700's once it takes delivery of some A220-300 planes.

WN has also now delayed the schedule extension that was originally scheduled for February 11, 2020 to March 12, 2020.

WN has already taken every (viable) -700 available. Any -700’s that would be available anytime soon would be very high cycle, and at the end of their usable service life. Right now, it’s get the MAX back in the air, or acquire a competitor. The second option is honestly closer to becoming a reality the longer this grounding drags out.



A220-300 and future A220- 500. Fuel savings on long east/west flights, Assembled in Mobile, AL.

They are getting burned the hardest on this MAX deal.
 
SWADawg
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 16, 2020 1:38 pm

WaywardMemphian wrote:
SWADawg wrote:
jplatts wrote:

I have previously mentioned that WN might be able to pick up some used 737-700's from SK and KL as WN is not likely to be back to normal anytime soon, even if the 737 MAX is back in service by the end of this year.

WN acquiring used 737-700's from DL might also be a possibility if DL plans on getting rid of its 737-700's once it takes delivery of some A220-300 planes.

WN has also now delayed the schedule extension that was originally scheduled for February 11, 2020 to March 12, 2020.

WN has already taken every (viable) -700 available. Any -700’s that would be available anytime soon would be very high cycle, and at the end of their usable service life. Right now, it’s get the MAX back in the air, or acquire a competitor. The second option is honestly closer to becoming a reality the longer this grounding drags out.



A220-300 and future A220- 500. Fuel savings on long east/west flights, Assembled in Mobile, AL.

They are getting burned the hardest on this MAX deal.

Not at this Airline brother, and not anytime soon unfortunately. Gary Kelly has already publicly stated that it would take at least 5 years to bring a new airframe on from scratch. Now, I’m not saying I completely believe it would take that long, it does tell me that WN has no plans of doing anything like an A220 or E195E2 anytime soon.
My posts are my opinion only and do not reflect the views of Southwest Airlines
 
jplatts
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Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 16, 2020 2:00 pm

SWADawg wrote:
WN has already taken every (viable) -700 available. Any -700’s that would be available anytime soon would be very high cycle, and at the end of their usable service life. Right now, it’s get the MAX back in the air, or acquire a competitor. The second option is honestly closer to becoming a reality the longer this grounding drags out.


All 16 of the 737-700's remaining in KLM's fleet are less than 12 years old, and KLM already has plans to get rid of these planes in the next 3 years. The KLM 737-700's also likely have several years of usable service life remaining with KLM's 737-700's being less than 12 years old.

WN acquiring some used 737-700's from KLM might certainly be a viable option with KLM's 737-700's being newer than most the 737-700's in WN's fleet, even though WN does have some 737-700's that are 8 to 12 years old.

Most of SK's 737-700's are more than 15 years old, but there are a few 737-700 planes remaining in SK's fleet that are 10 to 15 years old. A few of SK's 737-700's do have some usable service life remaining as there are many 737-700's more than 13 years old that are still in service with WN, SK, or other airlines. WN might be able to acquire a few used 737-700's from SK with SK having a few 737-700's that are new enough to have a few years of usable service life remaining.
 
SWADawg
Posts: 586
Joined: Tue Dec 03, 2013 6:43 pm

Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 16, 2020 2:19 pm

jplatts wrote:
SWADawg wrote:
WN has already taken every (viable) -700 available. Any -700’s that would be available anytime soon would be very high cycle, and at the end of their usable service life. Right now, it’s get the MAX back in the air, or acquire a competitor. The second option is honestly closer to becoming a reality the longer this grounding drags out.


All 16 of the 737-700's remaining in KLM's fleet are less than 12 years old, and KLM already has plans to get rid of these planes in the next 3 years. The KLM 737-700's also likely have several years of usable service life remaining with KLM's 737-700's being less than 12 years old.

WN acquiring some used 737-700's from KLM might certainly be a viable option with KLM's 737-700's being newer than most the 737-700's in WN's fleet, even though WN does have some 737-700's that are 8 to 12 years old.

Most of SK's 737-700's are more than 15 years old, but there are a few 737-700 planes remaining in SK's fleet that are 10 to 15 years old. A few of SK's 737-700's do have some usable service life remaining as there are many 737-700's more than 13 years old that are still in service with WN, SK, or other airlines. WN might be able to acquire a few used 737-700's from SK with SK having a few 737-700's that are new enough to have a few years of usable service life remaining.

Read what I wrote. Every AVAILABLE -700 has been spoken for. If there were other -700’s hitting the open market in the next 12 months then UA would be taking those instead of 19 from WN via GECAS. You just said yourself that the KLM birds are 3 years from being replaced. WN needs planes now, not 3 years from now.
My posts are my opinion only and do not reflect the views of Southwest Airlines
 
joeljack
Posts: 652
Joined: Fri Feb 25, 2005 12:38 pm

Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 16, 2020 5:57 pm

Does anybody know the schedule of WN unloading 737-700's to UA? Wasn't it 25 birds total? How many have been done already? I thought all had to be turned over to United by some time in 2020?
 
jplatts
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Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 16, 2020 7:09 pm

tphuang wrote:
Here is the LGB numbers from Q3 in light of the recent news. I'm posting all the routes here
CityPair Dist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare % NS PerFlight # Flights LF Yield PRASM Vs B6
LGBDEN 854 WN 21543 136.14 135.64 153.41 97.16% 143.3 184 81.68% 110.78 0.1297 N/A

I also posted the other carriers here including WN at DEN. That's a route without any competition for WN and the yields are horrendous.


I think that one reason why yields might not be so good on WN LGB-DEN nonstop service is that you have 2 ULCC's serving DEN nonstop from nearby airports with F9 serving DEN nonstop from LAX, SNA, and ONT and with NK having seasonal nonstop service to DEN from LAX.

In addition to WN, F9, and NK, UA already serves DEN nonstop from LAX, SNA, BUR, and ONT, and AA and DL both also already serve DEN nonstop from LAX.

What are the yields like on WN DEN-LAX, DEN-BUR, DEN-ONT, and DEN-SNA compared to DEN-LGB?
 
Runway28L
Posts: 2099
Joined: Wed Sep 20, 2017 7:35 pm

Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 16, 2020 8:31 pm

MAX cuts have been rolled to June 6, 2020.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/a ... mDrxxSMC2A
 
KDAL
Posts: 59
Joined: Mon Aug 26, 2019 3:40 am

Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2020

Sat Jan 18, 2020 4:25 pm

N7705A ferried ATL-MZJ on Thursday. Returned to GECAS.
All opinions and views expressed are my own and not representative of those of Southwest Airlines Co., its subsidiaries, or affiliates.
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