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wedgetail737
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Re: WN adding SBA & FAT in Q2 2021

Thu Dec 17, 2020 3:30 am

ZOASAN wrote:
I wouldn’t rule out intro-CA for SBA. Any combination of SJC, SMF, and OAK would work quite well. The distance from SBA to Northern California is nothing to sneeze at, and I can see WN wanting to push Contour out of the market that they’ve proven exists to SMF.


Where-ever WN decides to fly from SBA, Contour will simply shift their focus to another mid-CA destination like SBP. But with WN there, both FAT and SBA will get pretty crowded.
 
AAflyguy
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Re: WN adding SBA & FAT in Q2 2021

Thu Dec 17, 2020 4:00 am

MDW22L31C wrote:
Is Bakersfield next. Ton of people living in Bakersfield.


Yes, WN announced BFL today via FAT!! BFL is exactly halfway between BUR & FAT. I cannot imagine WN opening BFL when they serve BUR 100mi to the south & FAT 100mi to the north. BFL is kinda caught in the middle on this one and it doesn’t help their cause.

AAflyguy
 
slcdeltarumd11
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Re: WN adding SBA & FAT in Q2 2021

Thu Dec 17, 2020 4:06 am

Southwest sees the writing on the wall. Business travel is going to be very very slow to recover. They have too many planes for existing cities and are trying these places never once imaginable for southwest.

We are gonna see frequency really cut on business routes, ie they have the capacity coming up they know it. They are trying to get in these cities early . See if some come be grown with cheap shuttle type flights. They have to know some will fail.

I think Santa Barbara has a shot actually but they will have to grow the market alot and get drivers and maybe Amtrak passengers. If there were cheap convenient flights to say oak or San or sac I think they could stimulate demand. Not sure what destinations they will pick.
Last edited by slcdeltarumd11 on Thu Dec 17, 2020 4:07 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
flyfresno
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Re: WN adding SBA & FAT in Q2 2021

Thu Dec 17, 2020 4:07 am

AAflyguy wrote:
MDW22L31C wrote:
Is Bakersfield next. Ton of people living in Bakersfield.


Yes, WN announced BFL today via FAT!! BFL is exactly halfway between BUR & FAT. I cannot imagine WN opening BFL when they serve BUR 100mi to the south & FAT 100mi to the north. BFL is kinda caught in the middle on this one and it doesn’t help their cause.

AAflyguy


Poor Bakersfield. Aside from maybe a SEA flight on AS, I can't really see any major new service announcements for them in the near future. DFW was a nice (re) add, but that will have to sustain them for the time being...
 
ScottB
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Re: WN adding SBA & FAT in Q2 2021

Thu Dec 17, 2020 6:48 am

Midwestindy wrote:
Image


When did Sacramento move to between Chico and Redding?
 
Chemist
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Re: WN adding SBA & FAT in Q2 2021

Thu Dec 17, 2020 8:18 am

Wow, SBA. DIdn't expect that.
I'm one of the Ventura county fliers who uses BUR and might be interested in SBA.
Also you have the central coast areas of CA that have only limited and very expensive commuter service out of say SMX and SBP. So cities like Solvang, Lompoc (includes Vandenberg AFB staff), Santa Maria, San Luis Obispo, Atascadero, Paso Robles might also feed SBA.
Last edited by Chemist on Thu Dec 17, 2020 8:34 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
USTraveler
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Re: WN adding SBA & FAT in Q2 2021

Thu Dec 17, 2020 8:31 am

Lots of people in these towns need to go south of the border a lot.
 
SurfandSnow
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Re: WN adding SBA & FAT in Q2 2021

Thu Dec 17, 2020 1:30 pm

This is so exciting! Santa Barbara and Yosemite National Park are both incredible places to visit. Santa Barbara has a gorgeous Spanish style architectural theme throughout its walkable downtown and even SBA offers a beautiful Spanish style airport terminal experience! I hope both of these new stations do well for WN. There are also wonderful places like the Paso Robles winegrowing region and San Luis Obispo that will now be even more accessible to WN FFers now.
Flying in the middle seat of coach is much better than not flying at all!
 
PSAatSAN4Ever
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Re: WN adding SBA & FAT in Q2 2021

Thu Dec 17, 2020 3:50 pm

flyfresno wrote:
AAflyguy wrote:
MDW22L31C wrote:
Is Bakersfield next. Ton of people living in Bakersfield.


Yes, WN announced BFL today via FAT!! BFL is exactly halfway between BUR & FAT. I cannot imagine WN opening BFL when they serve BUR 100mi to the south & FAT 100mi to the north. BFL is kinda caught in the middle on this one and it doesn’t help their cause.

AAflyguy


Poor Bakersfield. Aside from maybe a SEA flight on AS, I can't really see any major new service announcements for them in the near future. DFW was a nice (re) add, but that will have to sustain them for the time being...


Bakersfield has literally zero premium demand. Other than the oil business, which is more bust than boom here, there are no premium customers on any kind of a regular basis to or from BFL. Pre-Covid, FAT had more seats available in the first 30 minutes of any day than BFL had for the entire day.

Nearly every major airline has tried BFL at some point, and almost all have run away quickly. After deregulation in 1978, the airport was, literally, a ghost town. Small commuter airlines came and went, but nothing lasted. AA returned with DFW service via SBA, followed by UA and their quirky SFO and DEN routings. Continental tried twice - once in 1982 of IAH via LAS, but that lasted less than a couple of months, and then again in 1987 after taking over the old Frontier. They even put a billboard in town, saying, "you need to fly us, or we're out of here!". And they were. America West tried in the late 1980's, with four flights a day to LAS. Why not PHX? I have no idea - but almost as if it were designed to fail, they pulled out, only returning in the 2000's (finally to Phoenix!). SkyWest flew as a Western/Delta connection to LAX for a while, and one EM2 to SLC flew for a few months, but it was gone quickly. Delta tried again in the early 2000's, but the economic collapse meant yet another pull-out.

Zero premium demand + too close to LAX = nothing, really, forever and ever.
 
FlyingElvii
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Re: WN adding SBA & FAT in Q2 2021

Thu Dec 17, 2020 4:23 pm

joeblow10 wrote:
Are both of these leisure destinations? Yes

Do I think WN can fill even close to 143 seats 5+ times a day in markets this size? Even in great times, absolutely not - especially at SBA.

I hope they took PSP as an indicator (based on reports) that dumping large amounts of capacity into a new market and only having 737s to fly it isn’t going to make it a success. I’m sure these cities could be, but they’ve got to dial back the frequencies at opening.

SBA is a sometime frequent destination for me. Love to see it. But will it last?
 
FlyingElvii
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Re: WN adding SBA & FAT in Q2 2021

Thu Dec 17, 2020 4:29 pm

mga707 wrote:
AC4500 wrote:
Bradin wrote:
wait what? SBA? Isn't that runway only 6000 feet?

Alaska has flown 737-800s to and from there before COVID struck. That shouldn't be an issue here.


And United flew 727s there for decades. Still remember an "An American Family" episode that showed Bill Loud stepping off of a UA 727 at SBA in 1971.

UA did that to a bunch of those coastal cities in the 80’s. I was a frequent traveler on the UA 727’s to/from Den in those days.
 
FlyingElvii
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Re: WN adding SBA & FAT in Q2 2021

Thu Dec 17, 2020 4:31 pm

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
Southwest sees the writing on the wall. Business travel is going to be very very slow to recover. They have too many planes for existing cities and are trying these places never once imaginable for southwest.

We are gonna see frequency really cut on business routes, ie they have the capacity coming up they know it. They are trying to get in these cities early . See if some come be grown with cheap shuttle type flights. They have to know some will fail.

I think Santa Barbara has a shot actually but they will have to grow the market alot and get drivers and maybe Amtrak passengers. If there were cheap convenient flights to say oak or San or sac I think they could stimulate demand. Not sure what destinations they will pick.

Nice thoughts, but SBA has a real NIMBY problem. Too many tourists and the rich locals start yanking at the pols.
 
syvjeff
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Re: WN adding SBA & FAT in Q2 2021

Thu Dec 17, 2020 4:42 pm

I'm excited to hear about SBA being added and the strange thing is that In my opinion is that service to SBA has improved since COVID. Starting 6 years ago I became a regular road warrior and I regularly drove from just north of Santa Barbara to Burbank or LAX to catch flights as prices and schedules were much better. At the time it was UA running SFO primarily and DEN secondary and AA solely going to PHX. Back then I tried to these flights and experienced regular fight delays which made it not worth the local convenience.

I did use the SEA and PDX service with AS with good success. Flew Delta out of SBA about 3 times in their short stay here and wish they'd come back.

However this last October I started traveling again out of SBA and the morning DFW flight with AA ran on time and got me the connections needed for 5 trips in a row.

I remember reading somewhere that UA in the past were running A319 and A320s to spend the night at SBA as it was less expensive to do so than let them spend the night at bigger airports like SFO. They were planning an evening run to SBA from ORD and returning to ORD as a red eye, but I believe that is on hold.

Now with SWA coming here, these are my predictions. One flight to and from SMF for general population connections and government workers from SLO, SB and Ventura Counties. One flight to and from OAK for connections and easier access to Bay Area than UA. Long shot for interstate would be SAN. Out of state I would bet LAS and/or a long shots like MDW, DAL or HOU for connections for midwest/eastern areas.
 
enplaned
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Re: WN adding SBA & FAT in Q2 2021

Thu Dec 17, 2020 5:29 pm

FlyingElvii wrote:
joeblow10 wrote:
Are both of these leisure destinations? Yes

Do I think WN can fill even close to 143 seats 5+ times a day in markets this size? Even in great times, absolutely not - especially at SBA.

I hope they took PSP as an indicator (based on reports) that dumping large amounts of capacity into a new market and only having 737s to fly it isn’t going to make it a success. I’m sure these cities could be, but they’ve got to dial back the frequencies at opening.

SBA is a sometime frequent destination for me. Love to see it. But will it last?


Less of an issue with Southwest than most others. Southwest tends to stick with a city for a long time before getting out (though it dumped a bunch of ex-AirTran cities after a relatively short amount of time).
 
enplaned
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Re: WN adding SBA & FAT in Q2 2021

Thu Dec 17, 2020 5:51 pm

joeblow10 wrote:
Are both of these leisure destinations? Yes

Do I think WN can fill even close to 143 seats 5+ times a day in markets this size? Even in great times, absolutely not - especially at SBA.

I hope they took PSP as an indicator (based on reports) that dumping large amounts of capacity into a new market and only having 737s to fly it isn’t going to make it a success. I’m sure these cities could be, but they’ve got to dial back the frequencies at opening.


Neither of them are leisure destinations as the data clearly show.

Percentage of 2019 domestic traffic that originated at (vs was destined to):
PSP: 30.9%
FAT: 56.7%
SBA: 48.7%
LAX: 48.8%

FAT is clearly dominated by originating traffic while SBA is no more dominated by in-bound traffic than is LAX. I'm not saying no one ever flew into SBA for a holiday, obviously they did, but seeing SBA as some kind of holiday airport like PSP is simply wrong. It's a balanced airport with a large amount of originating traffic.

As to whether it can support 5 or more departures per day with 143 seat aircraft, back in the day Shuttle by United had 8x SBA-SFO with 737-300s (albeit with low LFs).

Depending on where it flies (e.g. PHX, LAS, DEN, SMF, OAK) I could see Southwest support five departures per day (assuming pre-Covid demand) with ease. In 2019 SBA did 122 PDEW to DEN and 68 to PHX and in the past it's supported traffic to LAS of 50+ PDEW. There's decent local demand to those places which ought to be backed by plenty of connections at those airports given WN hubs there. Assuming a return to pre-Covid demand.
 
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SANFan
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Re: WN adding SBA & FAT in Q2 2021

Thu Dec 17, 2020 6:01 pm

SBA is surprising to me as well. FAT I've been expecting and I congratulate the Fresno-fans on A.net for their dedication to this eventually happening; it was, IMO, only a matter of time.

From a "where to" outlook, I don't see SBA-SAN happening on WN. Perhaps AS's recent decision to start the route -- now on March 18 -- was due to suspected action on WN's part? I would expect, as most others, to see WN head for PHX, LAS, DEN and perhaps OAK (and maybe even SMF) but can't see much else. OAK would make sense to provide sensible connections to the PNW which could also be offered via LAS. I would be shocked to see WN add SBA-LAX, and surprised if they tried SBA-SAN.

From FAT, I could see a daily flight to SAN; the market has been very nicely developed by AS over the last few years, and they have been flirting with as many as 5 daily r/t in the market! I could see AS maybe adding a mainline r/t in the market once WN makes their move. But the frequency of flights offered on the EMJ, as well as F seating is a very nice feature of AS's service which WN could not duplicate.

Other expected markets WN might offer from FAT would be the same as from SBA, probably excluding OAK but maybe adding SMF? Perhaps a Texas destination and even Chicago? SMF and SAN would offer connections to HI and maybe DAL or HOU plus MDW would offer some great additional points of connection besides PHX, LAS & DEN.

Exciting times for Fresno and Santa Barbara! Again, congrats to both great cites for welcoming WN to your airports!

bb
 
FATFlyer
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Re: WN adding SBA & FAT in Q2 2021

Thu Dec 17, 2020 6:02 pm

PSAatSAN4Ever wrote:
Bakersfield has literally zero premium demand. Other than the oil business, which is more bust than boom here, there are no premium customers on any kind of a regular basis to or from BFL. Pre-Covid, FAT had more seats available in the first 30 minutes of any day than BFL had for the entire day.

Nearly every major airline has tried BFL at some point, and almost all have run away quickly. After deregulation in 1978, the airport was, literally, a ghost town. Small commuter airlines came and went, but nothing lasted. AA returned with DFW service via SBA, followed by UA and their quirky SFO and DEN routings. Continental tried twice - once in 1982 of IAH via LAS, but that lasted less than a couple of months, and then again in 1987 after taking over the old Frontier. They even put a billboard in town, saying, "you need to fly us, or we're out of here!". And they were. America West tried in the late 1980's, with four flights a day to LAS. Why not PHX? I have no idea - but almost as if it were designed to fail, they pulled out, only returning in the 2000's (finally to Phoenix!). SkyWest flew as a Western/Delta connection to LAX for a while, and one EM2 to SLC flew for a few months, but it was gone quickly. Delta tried again in the early 2000's, but the economic collapse meant yet another pull-out.

Zero premium demand + too close to LAX = nothing, really, forever and ever.


BFL airport itself used to have a billboard targeting driveaway-to-LAX pax on northbound I-5 near Magic Mountain saying something like "If you flew from Meadows Field you would already be home".

The Bakersfield area has supported scheduled LAX bus shuttle service for years (temporarily suspended due to COVID I hear). The Fresno area has never had a scheduled airport shuttle to the Bay Area or SoCal airports, just that further driving distance.

BFL as you said has seen everyone try it. Allegiant pulled out after only 9 months and Mexicana lasted about one year. AeroMexico and Volaris have never seemed interested in replacing Mexicana, probably due to the LAX proximity.

The 2006-built terminal at BFL is a nice facility. Three jetways and a much better passenger experience than the old terminal. But I understand the airport budget has been strained by the debt since there is little traffic and revenue. I read some of the debt was written off.

I always thought BFL made a mistake in 2006/2007 by spending $4 million to expand and remodel the original terminal building into a separate international terminal/customs offices. That created two terminals nearly 1 mile apart with duplicate parking, concessions, maintenance, etc costs. Instead I thought they should have spent less to build just a FIS adjacent to the then-new Thomas terminal for arrivals/customs and use the Thomas terminal complex for international departures, parking, concession services, etc. to reduce duplicate services and costs, similar to the approach FAT used.
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness." - Mark Twain
 
FATFlyer
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Re: WN adding SBA & FAT in Q2 2021

Thu Dec 17, 2020 6:15 pm

syvjeff wrote:
They were planning an evening run to SBA from ORD and returning to ORD as a red eye, but I believe that is on hold.


UA's SBA-ORD (like the successful FAT-ORD and from other west coast cities) is in the schedule for post-COVID 2021.

But schedules have shifted. Westbound from ORD will remain evening runs for those flights when they return. But now they all show RON with next morning eastbound departures replacing the red-eyes.
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness." - Mark Twain
 
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Coronado990
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Re: WN adding SBA & FAT in Q2 2021

Thu Dec 17, 2020 6:18 pm

PSAatSAN4Ever wrote:
flyfresno wrote:
AAflyguy wrote:

Yes, WN announced BFL today via FAT!! BFL is exactly halfway between BUR & FAT. I cannot imagine WN opening BFL when they serve BUR 100mi to the south & FAT 100mi to the north. BFL is kinda caught in the middle on this one and it doesn’t help their cause.

AAflyguy


Poor Bakersfield. Aside from maybe a SEA flight on AS, I can't really see any major new service announcements for them in the near future. DFW was a nice (re) add, but that will have to sustain them for the time being...


Bakersfield has literally zero premium demand. Other than the oil business, which is more bust than boom here, there are no premium customers on any kind of a regular basis to or from BFL. Pre-Covid, FAT had more seats available in the first 30 minutes of any day than BFL had for the entire day.

Nearly every major airline has tried BFL at some point, and almost all have run away quickly. After deregulation in 1978, the airport was, literally, a ghost town. Small commuter airlines came and went, but nothing lasted. AA returned with DFW service via SBA, followed by UA and their quirky SFO and DEN routings. Continental tried twice - once in 1982 of IAH via LAS, but that lasted less than a couple of months, and then again in 1987 after taking over the old Frontier. They even put a billboard in town, saying, "you need to fly us, or we're out of here!". And they were. America West tried in the late 1980's, with four flights a day to LAS. Why not PHX? I have no idea - but almost as if it were designed to fail, they pulled out, only returning in the 2000's (finally to Phoenix!). SkyWest flew as a Western/Delta connection to LAX for a while, and one EM2 to SLC flew for a few months, but it was gone quickly. Delta tried again in the early 2000's, but the economic collapse meant yet another pull-out.

Zero premium demand + too close to LAX = nothing, really, forever and ever.


Poor Bakersfield is right! Sounds like a good market for NK. OAK and LAS would be obvious choices. SEA, ORD and IAH come to mind for longer flights that do not compete with DEN or DFW on UA and AA. Make it so cheap they'll drive in from Fresno.
Bonanza Air Lines. The original BZ.
 
gauchojon
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Re: WN adding SBA & FAT in Q2 2021

Thu Dec 17, 2020 7:27 pm

USTraveler wrote:
Lots of people in these towns need to go south of the border a lot.

Ugh Really ?
 
gauchojon
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Re: WN adding SBA & FAT in Q2 2021

Thu Dec 17, 2020 7:32 pm

As a Santa Barbara resident who uses SBA allot, we are already oversaturated with Denver and Phoenix, LAS and OAK are
great since Contour left at Covids outset. Would also love HOU as that opens up allot of connections. thanks WN !!!
 
OAHU747
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Re: WN adding SBA & FAT in Q2 2021

Thu Dec 17, 2020 8:16 pm

What gates are available to WN at SBA?
My posts and opinions are mine only and are not from or representative of Southwest Airlines.
 
ericm2031
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Re: WN adding SBA & FAT in Q2 2021

Thu Dec 17, 2020 10:29 pm

OAHU747 wrote:
What gates are available to WN at SBA?


They’re all CUTE gates
 
ucdtim17
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Re: WN adding SBA & FAT in Q2 2021

Thu Dec 17, 2020 11:23 pm

Doubtful that Contour is coming back on OAK-SBA with this news. I quite enjoyed my SBA-OAK flight in seat 1A, with unlimited legroom and no neighbor.
 
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OzarkD9S
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Re: WN adding SBA & FAT in Q2 2021

Thu Dec 17, 2020 11:39 pm

FATFlyer wrote:

BFL airport itself used to have a billboard targeting driveaway-to-LAX pax on northbound I-5 near Magic Mountain saying something like "If you flew from Meadows Field you would already be home".


There used to be a similar sign on I-55 between STL and SPI, back in the TWA STL hub days.
"My soul is in the sky". -Pyramus- A Midsummer's Night Dream
 
PSAatSAN4Ever
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Re: WN adding SBA & FAT in Q2 2021

Thu Dec 17, 2020 11:49 pm

FATFlyer wrote:
PSAatSAN4Ever wrote:
Bakersfield has literally zero premium demand. Other than the oil business, which is more bust than boom here, there are no premium customers on any kind of a regular basis to or from BFL. Pre-Covid, FAT had more seats available in the first 30 minutes of any day than BFL had for the entire day.

Nearly every major airline has tried BFL at some point, and almost all have run away quickly. After deregulation in 1978, the airport was, literally, a ghost town. Small commuter airlines came and went, but nothing lasted. AA returned with DFW service via SBA, followed by UA and their quirky SFO and DEN routings. Continental tried twice - once in 1982 of IAH via LAS, but that lasted less than a couple of months, and then again in 1987 after taking over the old Frontier. They even put a billboard in town, saying, "you need to fly us, or we're out of here!". And they were. America West tried in the late 1980's, with four flights a day to LAS. Why not PHX? I have no idea - but almost as if it were designed to fail, they pulled out, only returning in the 2000's (finally to Phoenix!). SkyWest flew as a Western/Delta connection to LAX for a while, and one EM2 to SLC flew for a few months, but it was gone quickly. Delta tried again in the early 2000's, but the economic collapse meant yet another pull-out.

Zero premium demand + too close to LAX = nothing, really, forever and ever.


BFL airport itself used to have a billboard targeting driveaway-to-LAX pax on northbound I-5 near Magic Mountain saying something like "If you flew from Meadows Field you would already be home".


I remember that billboard! It always marked the one-more-hour-to-mom's-house-in-Bakersfield point, usually after a hellish drive through all of Orange and Los Angeles Counties. I never figured out the purpose of that - someone in the city HAD to have known that local premium demand drives new air service, not denizens of Bakersfield being shamed into flying a more expensive and lesser convenient route just to be loyal to a home airport! But from the same minds who have conspired to keep Bakersfield an endless suburb without much of a business climate comes the idea of ringing the bell of shame from "Game Of Thrones".

The Bakersfield area has supported scheduled LAX bus shuttle service for years (temporarily suspended due to COVID I hear). The Fresno area has never had a scheduled airport shuttle to the Bay Area or SoCal airports, just that further driving distance.


And it used to be a bigger deal - now, even before COVID, that was dying off. The last times I let my mother use the bus service, the times were limited, and their website wasn't working. In this day and age, a non-functioning website is an anchor on a sinking ship. It was - and still is - easier for mom to take the Amtrak bus & train to San Diego, stay with me overnight, fly out the next morning, and repeat the process in reverse than it is for her just to get to LAX.

BFL as you said has seen everyone try it. Allegiant pulled out after only 9 months and Mexicana lasted about one year. AeroMexico and Volaris have never seemed interested in replacing Mexicana, probably due to the LAX proximity.


I have nearly lost track of everyone who came in to BFL and pulled out. Air LA had a mini-hub here for a few weeks, but POOF! Just like flash paper, they were gone. The newest Frontier tried x3 weekly to DEN, but the times were awful. Allegiant and America West could neither one make LAS work from BFL, even with connections. Either Allegiant or Frontier was the last mainline service there.

The 2006-built terminal at BFL is a nice facility. Three jetways and a much better passenger experience than the old terminal. But I understand the airport budget has been strained by the debt since there is little traffic and revenue. I read some of the debt was written off.


The economic collapse of 2007 hit BFL hard. Continental to IAH, gone. Of course, a large part of that was the equipment "agreement" with ExpressJet, who operated that flight. A temporary suspension turned into permanent. Delta/SkyWest dropped BFL-SLC from twice to once, then gone. HP dropped LAS at this time, but kept PHX. Only UA seemed to do well, actually increasing DEN to x2 during this time. SFO, however, has always been iffy.

I LOVED flying through BFL during the ExpressJet branded flying from SAN...42 minutes with a beverage, or 4+ hours in Los Angeles traffic...hmmm...

I always thought BFL made a mistake in 2006/2007 by spending $4 million to expand and remodel the original terminal building into a separate international terminal/customs offices. That created two terminals nearly 1 mile apart with duplicate parking, concessions, maintenance, etc costs. Instead I thought they should have spent less to build just a FIS adjacent to the then-new Thomas terminal for arrivals/customs and use the Thomas terminal complex for international departures, parking, concession services, etc. to reduce duplicate services and costs, similar to the approach FAT used.


I think the reason for this set-up was both availability AND a lack of demand for service at the new "international" wing. Bordering on the absurdly outdated, the old terminal was, at least, a standing structure that was fairly quickly converted to international service based on interest from Mexicana. Given that there would be zero connecting passengers, a shuttle between the terminals was unnecessary for one scheduled flight to GDL. And given also that BFL-GDL was entirely VFR customers, a red-eye with no frills was exactly the clientele Mexicana was looking to capture. And if you remember the old terminal, food wasn't a priority. In fact, it didn't exist. And with a red-eye flight like this, it would have been too expensive for a building that is only busy for maybe 1-2 hours a day.

My deepest hope growing up in Bakersfield was that this great airline everyone in LA talked about (called PSA) would one day have scheduled service. That, or Air Cal. But neither did. It just felt like rejection, and it made me sad. Even sadder when everyone else was growing, but not us.
 
FATFlyer
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Re: WN adding SBA & FAT in Q2 2021

Fri Dec 18, 2020 1:15 am

PSAatSAN4Ever wrote:

BFL as you said has seen everyone try it. Allegiant pulled out after only 9 months and Mexicana lasted about one year. AeroMexico and Volaris have never seemed interested in replacing Mexicana, probably due to the LAX proximity.


I have nearly lost track of everyone who came in to BFL and pulled out. Air LA had a mini-hub here for a few weeks, but POOF! Just like flash paper, they were gone. The newest Frontier tried x3 weekly to DEN, but the times were awful. Allegiant and America West could neither one make LAS work from BFL, even with connections. Either Allegiant or Frontier was the last mainline service there.


I had forgotten about Frontier as the last mainline, it was even shorter than Allegiant's time in the market. Frontier was about 6 months from May 2014 to Nov 2014. Allegiant lasted almost 8 months from Nov 2010 to June 2011.

I think BFL-LAS flights sound good to locals but when it comes to ticketing time they just decide it is easier to do the 4 to 4.5 hour drive.

PSAatSAN4Ever wrote:
I think the reason for this set-up was both availability AND a lack of demand for service at the new "international" wing. Bordering on the absurdly outdated, the old terminal was, at least, a standing structure that was fairly quickly converted to international service based on interest from Mexicana. Given that there would be zero connecting passengers, a shuttle between the terminals was unnecessary for one scheduled flight to GDL. And given also that BFL-GDL was entirely VFR customers, a red-eye with no frills was exactly the clientele Mexicana was looking to capture. And if you remember the old terminal, food wasn't a priority. In fact, it didn't exist. And with a red-eye flight like this, it would have been too expensive for a building that is only busy for maybe 1-2 hours a day


I was thinking more that it should have been how Fresno quicker and at a lower cost kicked off Mexicana service. FAT and BFL were originally supposed to start Mexicana flights within days of each other in early 2006. But construction choices influenced that.

Fresno worked with Customs and designed a modular construction FIS building just for international arrivals. Then FAT placed it adjacent to the existing terminal with a connecting corridor between the terminal and FIS, no shuttle bus needed either. International departures, concessions, etc. were in the main terminal; international departures and arrivals were also able to use the same parking lot; etc. It made for a quick low cost solution (I think the FAT FIS project came in at about $1 million to $2 million) and FAT-GDL started in March 2006.

BFL not only remodeled the old terminal for departures but also expanded it with a new FIS/Customs building next to it. That then meant having to also maintain a second parking lot, etc. I thought they should have just built the FIS portion next to the new Thomas terminal. I checked, it was $1 million to remodel the old BFL terminal for international departures and another $7 million for the FIS/Customs expansion for arrivals. That created a second building complex and parking to maintain. But construction delays (with labor, steel, etc) pushed the project completion from Spring 2006 to Spring 2007.

Now that FAT has international service established and expanded, a new 2nd concourse will be built starting in 2021 with a new larger adjacent FIS with the gates designed to swing between domestic and international flights. The new concourse should probably have 1 or 2 more gates than the current planned design but it will provide additional domestic and international flight capacity with flexibility.
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness." - Mark Twain
 
AntonioMartin
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Re: WN adding SBA & FAT in Q2 2021

Fri Dec 18, 2020 1:33 am

Wonder if DAL will be serviced by SW? They could compete with American...

And perhaps San Diego?
 
AAflyguy
Posts: 329
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Re: WN adding SBA & FAT in Q2 2021

Fri Dec 18, 2020 3:07 am

enplaned wrote:
joeblow10 wrote:
Are both of these leisure destinations? Yes

Do I think WN can fill even close to 143 seats 5+ times a day in markets this size? Even in great times, absolutely not - especially at SBA.

I hope they took PSP as an indicator (based on reports) that dumping large amounts of capacity into a new market and only having 737s to fly it isn’t going to make it a success. I’m sure these cities could be, but they’ve got to dial back the frequencies at opening.


Neither of them are leisure destinations as the data clearly show.

Percentage of 2019 domestic traffic that originated at (vs was destined to):
PSP: 30.9%
FAT: 56.7%
SBA: 48.7%
LAX: 48.8%

FAT is clearly dominated by originating traffic while SBA is no more dominated by in-bound traffic than is LAX. I'm not saying no one ever flew into SBA for a holiday, obviously they did, but seeing SBA as some kind of holiday airport like PSP is simply wrong. It's a balanced airport with a large amount of originating traffic.

As to whether it can support 5 or more departures per day with 143 seat aircraft, back in the day Shuttle by United had 8x SBA-SFO with 737-300s (albeit with low LFs).

Depending on where it flies (e.g. PHX, LAS, DEN, SMF, OAK) I could see Southwest support five departures per day (assuming pre-Covid demand) with ease. In 2019 SBA did 122 PDEW to DEN and 68 to PHX and in the past it's supported traffic to LAS of 50+ PDEW. There's decent local demand to those places which ought to be backed by plenty of connections at those airports given WN hubs there. Assuming a return to pre-Covid demand.


Just a bit of a point about PSP being a "holiday airport" and only 31% of its traffic originating. In 2019, PSP saw a total of nearly 2.6 million total passengers. So, 1.3 million were enplaning. 31% of that is 403,000.

SBA had a total of just under 1 million total passengers in 2019. So, about 500K enplanements. If 49% were local/originators, that's about 250K.

PSP's 31% raw local figure is 2/3 more than SBA's 49% local. And PSP still leaks traffic to ONT, etc. just like SBA leaks to BUR & LAX. With WN, more of that traffic can stay local vs hopping on the freeway. I'm speaking for both airports.

Also, we are talking about COVID times here. Who would expect ANY airline to go gangbusters in Month 1 in a new market (that had its schedule announced 60-days out) at a time like this? It will take a while, as I am absolutely sure WN is fully aware of. They waited this long to enter PSP. They are not going anywhere now. Meanwhile, they have scores of flight crews that need flying time since they've still not implemented any layoffs. They know demand is generally low nationwide right now. Don't we all?

Am I looking at this incorrectly?

AAflyguy
 
AntonioMartin
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Re: WN adding SBA & FAT in Q2 2021

Fri Dec 18, 2020 3:22 am

737max8 wrote:
Any chance we get FAT-DAL or HOU?

Or from SBA to DAL/HOU
 
wedgetail737
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Re: WN adding SBA & FAT in Q2 2021

Fri Dec 18, 2020 5:07 am

ucdtim17 wrote:
Doubtful that Contour is coming back on OAK-SBA with this news. I quite enjoyed my SBA-OAK flight in seat 1A, with unlimited legroom and no neighbor.


Contour (LF) could restart OAK-SBA if WN decides not to fly the SBA-OAK route. The other possibility is that LF would move that service to SBP, especially when they once had SBP-LAS.

I flew on LF twice...OAK-CEC RT and OAK-SBA RT. They were my favorite tiny airline.
 
SANMAN66
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Re: WN adding SBA & FAT in Q2 2021

Fri Dec 18, 2020 8:20 am

FAT waited patiently for a long time to get WN service, now it looks as if all that waiting has finally paid off!
PSA Gives you a lift!
 
FlyingMSY
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2020

Fri Dec 18, 2020 11:51 pm

On a side note, planespotters lists N905WN, N7716A, and N553WN as having been wfu since Illinois One was withdrawn. I'm a bit surprised 905 was given its another one of the younger 73Gs; does this place Lone Star and Tennessee One in jeopardy, seeing as both are also leased?
 
SXDFC
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2020

Sat Dec 19, 2020 12:19 am

FlyingMSY wrote:
On a side note, planespotters lists N905WN, N7716A, and N553WN as having been wfu since Illinois One was withdrawn. I'm a bit surprised 905 was given its another one of the younger 73Gs; does this place Lone Star and Tennessee One in jeopardy, seeing as both are also leased?


Someone mentioned a few posts, or pages back that Lone Star 2.0 will be leaving Q2 2021. Tennessee One will be sticking around, as it sports the Scimitar Winglets. Arizona One should be next up to get the scimitars.
 
alpine1989
Posts: 66
Joined: Fri Mar 01, 2019 2:13 am

Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2020

Sat Dec 19, 2020 2:08 pm

Southwest flights to HDN and MTJ start today.
 
Chemist
Posts: 860
Joined: Tue Oct 20, 2015 4:46 am

Re: WN adding SBA & FAT in Q2 2021

Sun Dec 20, 2020 3:08 am

Unless you're an elite, pretty easy for WN to step in and offer better service than AA in many ways.
 
wnflyguy
Posts: 2369
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Re: WN adding SBA & FAT in Q2 2021

Mon Dec 21, 2020 6:59 am

Starting to Sound like FAT and SBA will each be around 6 daily flights.
Current weekend speculation from the Armchair planners.
3 LAS
2 OAK
1 DEN

Flyguy
My Wings are clipped just another Retired Airline person. The Ultimate Armchair out of the loop airline industry geek. Aloha Mr Hand!
 
jmc1975
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Re: WN adding SBA & FAT in Q2 2021

Mon Dec 21, 2020 7:19 am

gauchojon wrote:
USTraveler wrote:
Lots of people in these towns need to go south of the border a lot.

Ugh Really ?

Absolutely! However, most of these towns are closer to FAT, thus explaining the historically robust level of service to secondary Mexican markets.
.......
 
wnflyguy
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Joined: Thu Feb 10, 2011 7:58 pm

Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2020

Mon Dec 21, 2020 5:22 pm

WN started receiving the MAX8s back on property with its first arrival into PHX yesterday.
Flyguy
My Wings are clipped just another Retired Airline person. The Ultimate Armchair out of the loop airline industry geek. Aloha Mr Hand!
 
User avatar
LotsaRunway
Posts: 436
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2020

Mon Dec 21, 2020 7:39 pm

wnflyguy wrote:
WN started receiving the MAX8s back on property with its first arrival into PHX yesterday.
Flyguy

When and where will these first return to service?
 
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SANFan
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Re: WN adding SBA & FAT in Q2 2021

Mon Dec 21, 2020 7:56 pm

wnflyguy wrote:
Starting to Sound like FAT and SBA will each be around 6 daily flights.
Current weekend speculation from the Armchair planners.
3 LAS
2 OAK
1 DEN

Flyguy

From my armchair, I still don't see FAT-OAK as viable but perhaps WN would nevertheless offer 1 daily r/t primarily for connecting purposes; but then this could also be a FAT-SMF flight that would accomplish the same thing with possibly a bit more O&D. (At least SMF is the state capital and should see some political types who might fly if the opportunity was available.) I do not see why there wouldn't be at least 1 daily trip to PHX and/or SAN from FAT.

For SBA, those frequencies might work pretty well but I still think SBA-PHX would also do well. Four or five choices of destinations makes more sense to me for new cities even though the number of daily flights might be lower than in the past.

bb
 
flyfresno
Posts: 1253
Joined: Tue May 02, 2006 6:18 am

Re: WN adding SBA & FAT in Q2 2021

Mon Dec 21, 2020 8:11 pm

SANFan wrote:
From my armchair, I still don't see FAT-OAK as viable but perhaps WN would nevertheless offer 1 daily r/t primarily for connecting purposes; but then this could also be a FAT-SMF flight that would accomplish the same thing with possibly a bit more O&D. (At least SMF is the state capital and should see some political types who might fly if the opportunity was available.)


Even though OAK is ever so slightly closer to Fresno than SMF, the traffic in the Bay is usually much worse than in Sac, making Oakland a longer drive much of the time; OAK is also well connected via BART to SF. I just can't see many people flying only SMF-FAT, you really wouldn't save much time at all vs driving, especially considering most of the Sac metro area is closer to Fresno than SMF is. However, with all the growth of WN at SMF, it's much more of a possibility, although I'm pretty sure OAK is still tops for connections.
 
phllax
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Re: WN adding SBA & FAT in Q2 2021

Mon Dec 21, 2020 9:00 pm

Remember that the last non-hub flight of HP/US from LAS to get cut when the hub and then focus city was eliminated was the FAT flight.
 
737max8
Posts: 707
Joined: Thu Dec 10, 2015 4:13 am

Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2020

Mon Dec 21, 2020 11:16 pm

LotsaRunway wrote:
wnflyguy wrote:
WN started receiving the MAX8s back on property with its first arrival into PHX yesterday.
Flyguy

When and where will these first return to service?


When - the airline said March.

Where - not yet announced.

The first plane out of VCV storage is on it's way to PHX right now!
The thoughts and opinions expressed in my comments do not represent that of any airline or affiliate.
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flyfresno
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Re: WN adding SBA & FAT in Q2 2021

Tue Dec 22, 2020 1:27 am

phllax wrote:
Remember that the last non-hub flight of HP/US from LAS to get cut when the hub and then focus city was eliminated was the FAT flight.


Yep. There's a lot of pent up demand to LAS...many people just don't want to fly on G4.
 
WN732
Posts: 955
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Re: WN adding SBA & FAT in Q2 2021

Tue Dec 22, 2020 3:02 am

flyfresno wrote:
phllax wrote:
Remember that the last non-hub flight of HP/US from LAS to get cut when the hub and then focus city was eliminated was the FAT flight.


Yep. There's a lot of pent up demand to LAS...many people just don't want to fly on G4.


Some of the G4 fares can be somewhat pricey even before you factor in the luggage and other fees that they tack on. WN could even match the base fares and still undercut G4.
 
wnflyguy
Posts: 2369
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Re: WN adding SBA & FAT in Q2 2021

Tue Dec 22, 2020 4:44 pm

Well Tuesday morning rumblings.
With LAX new Crew lounges now officially opened in T1.5 it's Allowing WN tear down the temporary Pilots lounge that housed the area that will become gate 12A. Construction of the remaining concessions And gate area. Schedule to be completed by March 2021.
Along with this recent talk is the possibility of them adding 3 or 4 daily flights between LAX-FAT. (Granted Their was speculation with the new Gate it was giving them the opportunity to add LAX-Hawaii) The speculation for FAT with this source said FAT could easily just end up with 3 LAX,3 LAS and 1 DEN.
His take on SBA is 3 LAS, 1 SMF, 1 OAK and 1 SAN.
Enjoy tear it apart whatever.
Schedules should be announced soon I'm told.

Flyguy
My Wings are clipped just another Retired Airline person. The Ultimate Armchair out of the loop airline industry geek. Aloha Mr Hand!
 
SBAer
Posts: 27
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Re: WN adding SBA & FAT in Q2 2021

Tue Dec 22, 2020 9:32 pm

wnflyguy wrote:
Well Tuesday morning rumblings.
With LAX new Crew lounges now officially opened in T1.5 it's Allowing WN tear down the temporary Pilots lounge that housed the area that will become gate 12A. Construction of the remaining concessions And gate area. Schedule to be completed by March 2021.
Along with this recent talk is the possibility of them adding 3 or 4 daily flights between LAX-FAT. (Granted Their was speculation with the new Gate it was giving them the opportunity to add LAX-Hawaii) The speculation for FAT with this source said FAT could easily just end up with 3 LAX,3 LAS and 1 DEN.
His take on SBA is 3 LAS, 1 SMF, 1 OAK and 1 SAN.
Enjoy tear it apart whatever.
Schedules should be announced soon I'm told.

Flyguy


I have a hard time believing 3x SBA-LAS is going to work, especially year round. LF was flying 30 seat ERJs 2x and there were always still plenty of seats on those. Granted connections plenty on WN via LAS, but I'm hoping I am very very wrong.
 
ytib
Posts: 657
Joined: Sun Nov 07, 2004 3:22 am

Re: WN adding SBA & FAT in Q2 2021

Tue Dec 22, 2020 10:49 pm

For FAT I wouldn't be surprised to see a flight to LGB as they build that up and make it a gateway to Hawaii.
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FATFlyer
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Re: WN adding SBA & FAT in Q2 2021

Tue Dec 22, 2020 11:36 pm

SBAer wrote:
I have a hard time believing 3x SBA-LAS is going to work, especially year round. LF was flying 30 seat ERJs 2x and there were always still plenty of seats on those. Granted connections plenty on WN via LAS, but I'm hoping I am very very wrong.


For SBA. like FAT, a large part of it will be where best to connect to the network not just O&D. Could be they connect passengers to a large part of the network at either LAS or PHX in my mind. Then also a few SBA in-state flights. As a comparison, COS-DEN is not a large O&D market but DEN works for connections.
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness." - Mark Twain

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