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jfklganyc
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Re: Southwest Announces Colorado Springs, Savannah, and Jackson

Thu Oct 22, 2020 3:04 pm

DiamondFlyer wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:
As someone that has been flying throughout this whole thing, And has been in the nitty-gritty since March, and currently sees what is going on today...
U
This expansion by Southwest would make me very nervous if I had any long term interest: Employment investment Etc

If you are out there every day, and you really take a hard look at what is going on, this is not the time to embark on a 10+ city expansion.

Nothing is making money. Loads are still only a fraction of what they were. God only knows what the yields are.

I will be labeled a hater… But I will be the first want to say it… This kind of expansion in this environment is reckless.



Absolutely not true. Southwest is positioning itself to grow in the domestic market. They are without a doubt going to be profitable before UA/AA/DL, due to lack of high dollar intentional widebody flying hat will take half a decade to get back to 2019 level. Southwest can make a move on domestic they didn't do pre-covid, right now, to try to cash in on growth that will come over the next 24 months.



That’s where I think the fundamental disagreement is.

No one is flying out of this unscathed. No one. The magnitude is too great. And it still has no end date.

One airline is going to go into bankruptcy… And they are all going to follow. Just like in the mid 2000s. The only question at this point, who’s going to go in first and start a chain reaction
 
Cubsrule
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Re: Southwest Announces Colorado Springs, Savannah, and Jackson

Thu Oct 22, 2020 3:11 pm

ScottB wrote:
dbo861 wrote:
When’s the last time WN opened a station with more than 5 daily flights?


Um, they announced two new cities with over five daily flights two weeks ago. MIA is getting twelve and PSP will get six. Now, if you're talking about number of markets that's a different story. Over much of its history, WN launched new cities with 8-12 daily departures.


To be fair, over much of its history WN hasn't had the option of outsourcing ground operations at smaller stations so it made sense to take up a gate more or less all day. But there are other costs associated with smaller stations that the ability to outsource doesn't fix.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
jplatts
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Re: Southwest Announces Colorado Springs, Savannah, and Jackson

Thu Oct 22, 2020 3:24 pm

Apart from the recently announced new WN destinations, remaining gaps in the WN network include:
  • RIC-MDW/DEN nonstop service
  • WN service to ANC, FAT, GSO, TYS, MYR, SRQ, and SYR
 
joeblow10
Posts: 463
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Re: Southwest Announces Colorado Springs, Savannah, and Jackson

Thu Oct 22, 2020 3:24 pm

SWA just seems to be making new cities a weekly announcement at this point... lol. They’ve obviously got room in the fleet to do it but it’ll be interesting to see just how many more they add in 2021... this already must be a record for them by a long ways (if we’re counting Dec 2020 adds as 2021).

I’ve said it for weeks but FAT, JAC, and BZN have to be on their way shortly. Probably all summer adds imo. Alaska seems like the other super obvious one - if they’re willing to go for it
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Southwest Announces Colorado Springs, Savannah, and Jackson

Thu Oct 22, 2020 3:29 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
DiamondFlyer wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:
As someone that has been flying throughout this whole thing, And has been in the nitty-gritty since March, and currently sees what is going on today...
U
This expansion by Southwest would make me very nervous if I had any long term interest: Employment investment Etc

If you are out there every day, and you really take a hard look at what is going on, this is not the time to embark on a 10+ city expansion.

Nothing is making money. Loads are still only a fraction of what they were. God only knows what the yields are.

I will be labeled a hater… But I will be the first want to say it… This kind of expansion in this environment is reckless.



Absolutely not true. Southwest is positioning itself to grow in the domestic market. They are without a doubt going to be profitable before UA/AA/DL, due to lack of high dollar intentional widebody flying hat will take half a decade to get back to 2019 level. Southwest can make a move on domestic they didn't do pre-covid, right now, to try to cash in on growth that will come over the next 24 months.



That’s where I think the fundamental disagreement is.

No one is flying out of this unscathed. No one. The magnitude is too great. And it still has no end date.

One airline is going to go into bankruptcy… And they are all going to follow. Just like in the mid 2000s. The only question at this point, who’s going to go in first and start a chain reaction


Any data to back this up? No wall street airline analysts are predicting a bankruptcy from a US major. Consensus is even on profits by the 2nd part of 2021

Maybe this made sense in April/May, but hardly anyone who analyzes the industry for a living is sharing your opinion.

Your points about LFs and demand are inaccurate as well, this is the time to find new revenue streams....like literally every other carrier on the face of the earth is....
Last edited by Midwestindy on Thu Oct 22, 2020 3:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
dbo861
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Re: Southwest Announces Colorado Springs, Savannah, and Jackson

Thu Oct 22, 2020 3:29 pm

ScottB wrote:

dbo861 wrote:
When’s the last time WN opened a station with more than 5 daily flights?


Um, they announced two new cities with over five daily flights two weeks ago. MIA is getting twelve and PSP will get six. Now, if you're talking about number of markets that's a different story. Over much of its history, WN launched new cities with 8-12 daily departures.

Touché, I didn’t even think about those two cities. That being said, COS is no Miami.
 
joeblow10
Posts: 463
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Re: Southwest Announces Colorado Springs, Savannah, and Jackson

Thu Oct 22, 2020 3:40 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:
DiamondFlyer wrote:


Absolutely not true. Southwest is positioning itself to grow in the domestic market. They are without a doubt going to be profitable before UA/AA/DL, due to lack of high dollar intentional widebody flying hat will take half a decade to get back to 2019 level. Southwest can make a move on domestic they didn't do pre-covid, right now, to try to cash in on growth that will come over the next 24 months.



That’s where I think the fundamental disagreement is.

No one is flying out of this unscathed. No one. The magnitude is too great. And it still has no end date.

One airline is going to go into bankruptcy… And they are all going to follow. Just like in the mid 2000s. The only question at this point, who’s going to go in first and start a chain reaction


Any data to back this up? No wall street airline analysts are predicting a bankruptcy from a US major. Consensus is even on profits by the 2nd part of 2021

Maybe this made sense in April/May, but hardly anyone who analyzes the industry for a living is sharing your opinion.

Your points about LFs and demand are inaccurate as well, this is the time to find new revenue streams....like literally every other carrier on the face of the earth is....


I’m not going to disagree on the bankruptcy point but profits by 2Q21? Anyone in the industry will be lucky to see one profitable quarter in 2021. It’s probably going to be early 22 before the industry returns to profitability, assuming we get a successful vaccine.

Yes, TSA passed 1mil last week for the first time. But that’s still 35% of normal traffic and it’s all low yielding leisure. The business traffic won’t be back until 3Q-4Q21 at the earliest... IF a vaccine is widely rolled out by mid next year. WN has the cash to hold on, so does DL - the rest of the industry may very well be in for possible bankruptcies without more govt money
 
AAflyguy
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Re: Southwest Announces Colorado Springs, Savannah, and Jackson

Thu Oct 22, 2020 3:41 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
[quzote="wnflyguy"]JAN-3 ATL,2 HOU,1 DEN
SAV-4 ATL,2 BWI, 1 Saturday only seasonal MDW nonstop.
COS-2 OAK,2 PHX, 2 LAS,2 MDW ,2 HOU,1 BWI and 1 DAL.

My predictions
Flyguy


That's 7 destinations right off the bat, I'd be pretty surprised if they went: COS-2 OAK,2 PHX, 2 LAS,2 MDW ,2 HOU,1 BWI and 1 DAL.

I'll take COS-PHX/DAL/MDW, wild card of COS-LAS or COS-DEN (despite the small distance, WN just added MCO-RSW)

COS-BWI doesn't make much sense if COS-MDW exists, there is not much east coast demand to/from COS, especially now....[/quote]

It would be a huge oversight for WN not to include a COS-West Coast market. The most logical add there would be OAK, as WNflyguy mentioned in his predictions, connecting the Bay Area region. Makes a lot of sense along with a couple of strong Focus Cities east of COS. WN is making interesting moves in the latter part of this wild & crazy year.

AAflyguy
 
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adamblang
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Re: Southwest Announces Colorado Springs, Savannah, and Jackson

Thu Oct 22, 2020 4:04 pm

BA744PHX wrote:
Now that is interesting, based on the quote "Leveraging additional airports in cornerstone cities where our customer base is large" I assume the following where they can connect the remaining network via these cities. Similar to what we've seen at PSP, MTJ & HDN

COS-DEN/PHX/DAL
SAV-ATL/DAL/BWI
JAN-ATL/DAL/HOU

I read "leveraging additional airports in cornerstone cities where our customer base is large" as wrapping up their previous announcements of service from IAH, MIA, and ORD into this press release. "Cities where our customer base is large" = Houston (HOU), Miami/Ft. Lauderdale (FLL), and Chicago (MDW). "Leveraging additional airports" = starting complementary service at IAH, MIA, and ORD.
 
DeltaRules
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Re: Southwest Announces Colorado Springs, Savannah, and Jackson

Thu Oct 22, 2020 4:23 pm

wnflyguy wrote:
This announcement should be called the 3 cities we should have never dropped.

JAN should have never been dropped over a political tug of war about a new terminal.

SAV was a profitable city for AirTran and should have been kept along with many others from the botched merger.

COS wasn't kept when they bought Morris Air could have been WN back door to Colorado all these years.

Flyguy


Now add DAY back.
A310/319/320/321/333, ARJ, BN2, B717/722/73S/733/734/735/73G/738/739/744/757/753/767/763/764/777, CR1/2/7/9, DH6, 328, EM2/ERJ/E70/E75/E90, F28/100, J31, L10/12/15, DC9/D93/D94/D95/M80/M88/M90/D10, SF3, SST
 
FATFlyer
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Re: Southwest Announces Colorado Springs, Savannah, and Jackson

Thu Oct 22, 2020 4:29 pm

WN732 wrote:
The California exodus is causing massive booms in other cities. It's great to see the growth in these markets.


It is an exodus from the Bay Area and Southern California metro areas causing booms elsewhere, not just a departure from the state.

Fresno's real estate market is now ahead of where it was pre-COVID. Much of it driven by people leaving the coastal cities and moving but staying in-state.

Investor's Business Daily recently ranked Fresno the hottest real estate market in the US in September. Colorado Springs was #4 and Bakersfield was #5.
https://www.investors.com/news/real-estate-stocks-housing-markets-watch-surprise-covid-boom/
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness." - Mark Twain
 
flyfresno
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Re: Southwest Announces Colorado Springs, Savannah, and Jackson

Thu Oct 22, 2020 4:30 pm

Wow FAT gets snubbed big time. Just one comparison, in 2019, FAT had in 1,964,489 total pax while COS had 1,671,757. ALSO, FAT went up by over 10% 2018-2019, COS went down by 3%. Gotta wonder whether gate space has anything to do with this...
 
DakotaFlyer
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Re: Southwest Announces Colorado Springs, Savannah, and Jackson

Thu Oct 22, 2020 4:31 pm

wnflyguy wrote:
JAN-3 ATL,2 HOU,1 DEN
SAV-4 ATL,2 BWI, 1 Saturday only seasonal MDW nonstop.
COS-2 OAK,2 PHX, 2 LAS,2 MDW ,2 HOU,1 BWI and 1 DAL.


My guesses:

JAN: 1-2 BWI, 1 MCO, 1-2 DAL, 1-2 HOU
SAV: 2 BWI, 1 MDW, 1 DAL, 1 HOU
COS: 1 MDW, 2 PHX, 1 LAS, 1 DAL, maybe 1 HOU[/quote]

Completely amature guess, but would there not be some type of southern connection point to SAV? I can't see people from New Orleans or Birmingham wanting to connect in BWI or MDW
 
FATFlyer
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Re: Southwest Announces Colorado Springs, Savannah, and Jackson

Thu Oct 22, 2020 4:32 pm

wnflyguy wrote:
This announcement should be called the 3 cities we should have never dropped.

COS wasn't kept when they bought Morris Air could have been WN back door to Colorado all these years.

Flyguy


That same logic about the Morris purchase applies to FAT. :D
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness." - Mark Twain
 
flyoregon
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Re: Southwest Announces Colorado Springs, Savannah, and Jackson

Thu Oct 22, 2020 4:37 pm

Would cities like MFR, EUG, or RDM have a place on the SWA route map in the near future?
 
gdavis003
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Re: Southwest Announces Colorado Springs, Savannah, and Jackson

Thu Oct 22, 2020 4:40 pm

DakotaFlyer wrote:
wnflyguy wrote:
JAN-3 ATL,2 HOU,1 DEN
SAV-4 ATL,2 BWI, 1 Saturday only seasonal MDW nonstop.
COS-2 OAK,2 PHX, 2 LAS,2 MDW ,2 HOU,1 BWI and 1 DAL.


My guesses:

JAN: 1-2 BWI, 1 MCO, 1-2 DAL, 1-2 HOU
SAV: 2 BWI, 1 MDW, 1 DAL, 1 HOU
COS: 1 MDW, 2 PHX, 1 LAS, 1 DAL, maybe 1 HOU


Completely amature guess, but would there not be some type of southern connection point to SAV? I can't see people from New Orleans or Birmingham wanting to connect in BWI or MDW[/quote]

MCO could make sense from SAV in that regard. I wish they would add BHM-BNA, would give much more flexibility out of BHM. Flew BHM-CHS the other week, and there were no connecting itineraries on Southwest available at all. Had to take DL instead.
 
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enilria
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Re: Southwest Announces Colorado Springs, Savannah, and Jackson

Thu Oct 22, 2020 4:52 pm

wnflyguy wrote:
This announcement should be called the 3 cities we should have never dropped.

JAN should have never been dropped over a political tug of war about a new terminal.

SAV was a profitable city for AirTran and should have been kept along with many others from the botched merger.

COS wasn't kept when they bought Morris Air could have been WN back door to Colorado all these years.

Flyguy

They publicly said that the JAN station lost money, but not every route. They said that there was too little profitable to keep the station open. Looking at their data it was pretty clear that JAN-MCO was profitable. BWI and whatever the other was (DAL or HOU?) looked awful. JAN-MCO is a lock this time. At the time if memory serves there was an issue with their station employees that made it uneconomic to serve the city with less than 6-8 flights. I don't remember the details, but that situation was also used to justify closing AirTran stations.
 
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SANFan
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Re: Southwest Announces Colorado Springs, Savannah, and Jackson

Thu Oct 22, 2020 4:52 pm

I'm sure this has already been stated by others but the headline I see jumping out at me is "WN Becomes a Just Another Hub-And-Spoke Airline." Most all of these recent added cities seem to be served from the usual 10 or so major stations of WN -- a.k.a hubs. Very little in the way of p-2-p service but maybe that will show up eventually.

Ahhh, the new WN...

bb
 
FlyPNS1
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Re: Southwest Announces Colorado Springs, Savannah, and Jackson

Thu Oct 22, 2020 4:57 pm

JAN is a real surprise...as it doesn't produce a lot of leisure travel. Most of their most recent adds tend to favor places that will have good leisure flows...SAV and COS meet follow this trend. But JAN does not. However, good news for JAN at least winning some service back.

I think part of this is that WN is becoming more hub-and-spoke focused in this environment. And to make hub-and-spoke work, you need a lot of spokes.
 
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enilria
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Re: Southwest Announces Colorado Springs, Savannah, and Jackson

Thu Oct 22, 2020 4:58 pm

tphuang wrote:
bpat777 wrote:
tphuang wrote:

I'm kind of confused where are the hard to grab real estate they are getting? Doesn't look like they are getting additional slots at LGA/DCA as of now. They are not moving back into EWR and have not done much at SFO/LAX. Are they just talking about getting into ORD?

You can't say for sure they won't be back to EWR. Maybe that's what you're hoping but it isn't an actual fact.


The fact is they haven't made a move on that front as of now. If they actually get back into EWR, then that's a different story.

Maybe what you should take out of my comment is that WN is possibly making bids at LGA/DCA slots. To me, that's what grabbing hard to get real estate means.

Actually if they are all in on a real estate strategy I would expect a JFK announcement ASAP. I think the only thing stopping them is the continued slot extensions. As soon as that is curtailed I expect WN to force the hand of B6 and mostly AA by announcing flights. I don't see them reversing themselves on EWR. It's too soon. They may eventually come back around on it, but it takes a lot of leadership changes to reverse on that type of decision and not nearly enough has changed in the leadership since then.

Here's another topic of note. While JAN makes no sense, the rest of these are destinations (COS and SAV) from major cities (ORD/IAD/NYC/etc). It is an extension of their major city strategy. I expect they are going to quickly find that their distribution strategy is incompatible with their new found love of mega-hubs. While WN is a big carrier in Houston and Chicago, the travelers are pretty balkanized. The wealthier travelers at IAH and ORD are less likely to check wn.com and stealing their existing passengers from MDW/HOU is a lose-lose proposition for them. To draw new customers they need new distribution in those hub areas. Otherwise it won't work.
 
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GlobalAirways
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Re: Southwest Announces Colorado Springs, Savannah, and Jackson

Thu Oct 22, 2020 5:24 pm

Killin it!
There is little difference in people, but that little difference makes a big difference. The little difference is attitude. The big difference is whether it is positive or negative. ~ W. Clement Stone
 
Cubsrule
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Re: Southwest Announces Colorado Springs, Savannah, and Jackson

Thu Oct 22, 2020 5:27 pm

enilria wrote:
wnflyguy wrote:
This announcement should be called the 3 cities we should have never dropped.

JAN should have never been dropped over a political tug of war about a new terminal.

SAV was a profitable city for AirTran and should have been kept along with many others from the botched merger.

COS wasn't kept when they bought Morris Air could have been WN back door to Colorado all these years.

Flyguy

They publicly said that the JAN station lost money, but not every route. They said that there was too little profitable to keep the station open. Looking at their data it was pretty clear that JAN-MCO was profitable. BWI and whatever the other was (DAL or HOU?) looked awful. JAN-MCO is a lock this time. At the time if memory serves there was an issue with their station employees that made it uneconomic to serve the city with less than 6-8 flights. I don't remember the details, but that situation was also used to justify closing AirTran stations.


They also flew JAN-MDW up until pretty close to the end. I flew it sometime in 2015, I think. I'm trying to remember, but I think that the "scope" relief for ground staff at small stations was in effect by the time that JAN closed.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: Southwest Announces Colorado Springs, Savannah, and Jackson

Thu Oct 22, 2020 5:29 pm

joeblow10 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:


That’s where I think the fundamental disagreement is.

No one is flying out of this unscathed. No one. The magnitude is too great. And it still has no end date.

One airline is going to go into bankruptcy… And they are all going to follow. Just like in the mid 2000s. The only question at this point, who’s going to go in first and start a chain reaction


Any data to back this up? No wall street airline analysts are predicting a bankruptcy from a US major. Consensus is even on profits by the 2nd part of 2021

Maybe this made sense in April/May, but hardly anyone who analyzes the industry for a living is sharing your opinion.

Your points about LFs and demand are inaccurate as well, this is the time to find new revenue streams....like literally every other carrier on the face of the earth is....


I’m not going to disagree on the bankruptcy point but profits by 2Q21? Anyone in the industry will be lucky to see one profitable quarter in 2021. It’s probably going to be early 22 before the industry returns to profitability, assuming we get a successful vaccine.

Yes, TSA passed 1mil last week for the first time. But that’s still 35% of normal traffic and it’s all low yielding leisure. The business traffic won’t be back until 3Q-4Q21 at the earliest... IF a vaccine is widely rolled out by mid next year. WN has the cash to hold on, so does DL - the rest of the industry may very well be in for possible bankruptcies without more govt money



Thank you for the sobering, reality based assessment

Airlines are going to come out of this with 18 months worth of debt that will be an albatross around their neck

One will go, and the others will have to follow because the one will get a good car wash and shed their obligations in bankruptcy. Thus starts the chain reaction.

You have 30% of passengers flying. Not even 30% of revenue. So please don’t call my observations inaccurate. It is ugly...everywhere...for everyone
 
jplatts
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Re: Southwest Announces Colorado Springs, Savannah, and Jackson

Thu Oct 22, 2020 5:47 pm

DeltaRules wrote:
Now add DAY back.


While DAY is one of the top destinations by number of domestic passengers in 2019 that isn't currently served by WN, I probably do not see WN returning to DAY anytime soon. More of the travelers in northern Cincinnati suburbs are also flying out of CVG instead of DAY due to CVG having more nonstop options than DAY does.

The demand for WN service was also stronger out of CVG in 2018 and 2019 than it ever was out of DAY after the switchover of DAY to WN from FL.

WN will also be operating a few nonstop routes out of CVG such as CVG-HOU/PHX that probably could not support nonstop service out of DAY on WN.
 
Lavdumper
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Re: Southwest Announces Colorado Springs, Savannah, and Jackson

Thu Oct 22, 2020 5:48 pm

SAV is about a 30 minute drive from very popular Hilton Head, SC. I can see why they added it as there are a lot of people from the Midwest who spend time in Hilton Head.
 
SEA
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Re: Southwest Announces Colorado Springs, Savannah, and Jackson

Thu Oct 22, 2020 5:54 pm

flyfresno wrote:
Wow FAT gets snubbed big time. Just one comparison, in 2019, FAT had in 1,964,489 total pax while COS had 1,671,757. ALSO, FAT went up by over 10% 2018-2019, COS went down by 3%. Gotta wonder whether gate space has anything to do with this...


It isn't a snub... pure traffic numbers aren't what airlines base their decisions on. Doesn't mean that something isn't in the works. It just means these three cities are what WN can announce right now.
 
airlinewatcher1
Posts: 129
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Re: Southwest Announces Colorado Springs, Savannah, and Jackson

Thu Oct 22, 2020 6:03 pm

My initial predictions for COS:

DEN x2 (short distance, but so many good connection opportunities)
MDW x1
DAL x1
PHX x2
LAS x2

It also would not surprise me to see LAX sometime soon. WN is really eating UA's lunch in Colorado, and also to a lesser extent, F9. It will be interesting to see what becomes of F9 at COS.
 
jetmatt777
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Re: Southwest Announces Colorado Springs, Savannah, and Jackson

Thu Oct 22, 2020 6:06 pm

flyfresno wrote:
Wow FAT gets snubbed big time. Just one comparison, in 2019, FAT had in 1,964,489 total pax while COS had 1,671,757. ALSO, FAT went up by over 10% 2018-2019, COS went down by 3%. Gotta wonder whether gate space has anything to do with this...


COS is quickly becoming the south suburb of Denver. Plenty of demand that isn't reflected in the boarding totals, as most people just drive to DEN.
 
freakyrat
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Re: Southwest Announces Colorado Springs, Savannah, and Jackson

Thu Oct 22, 2020 6:23 pm

With all these new destinations proposed by WN I'll throw another successful former FL city in the mix: BMI.
 
ScottB
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Re: Southwest Announces Colorado Springs, Savannah, and Jackson

Thu Oct 22, 2020 6:40 pm

enilria wrote:
Actually if they are all in on a real estate strategy I would expect a JFK announcement ASAP. I think the only thing stopping them is the continued slot extensions. As soon as that is curtailed I expect WN to force the hand of B6 and mostly AA by announcing flights. I don't see them reversing themselves on EWR. It's too soon. They may eventually come back around on it, but it takes a lot of leadership changes to reverse on that type of decision and not nearly enough has changed in the leadership since then.


I disagree on EWR. When they announced they were dropping EWR, they partly blamed the delays in the return of the MAX, along with the poor financial results at the airport. It'd be easy enough to cite slack in the fleet and going after stuff like EWR-Florida if they wanted.

I think the bigger impediment to WN potentially announcing service to JFK or a return to EWR is the quarantine requirement for most travelers to NY/NJ. While that continues to be in effect, air travel to the Tri-State Area will be severely depressed. July domestic traffic at LGA/EWR/JFK was down 83% year-over-year. Compare that to MCO where domestic traffic was down "only" 69% or DEN where domestic passengers declined 53%. Until the local governmental response to the pandemic is less hostile to air travel, there's no reason for WN to consider adding service to EWR or JFK.

And we now see that they can move pretty quickly when necessary. They're adding MIA & PSP ten weeks after the initial announcement of the new stations, and a bit over five weeks after opening the flights for sale. If things change in NY & NJ they can jump back in if the PANYNJ chooses not to make things difficult.

SANFan wrote:
I'm sure this has already been stated by others but the headline I see jumping out at me is "WN Becomes a Just Another Hub-And-Spoke Airline." Most all of these recent added cities seem to be served from the usual 10 or so major stations of WN -- a.k.a hubs. Very little in the way of p-2-p service but maybe that will show up eventually.


Yes, SWA management has come out and said they are focusing on their large stations because they can augment local traffic with connections while overall traffic remains depressed. Point-to-point routes are much more challenging when passenger traffic is down by 60-70%.

gdavis003 wrote:
MCO could make sense from SAV in that regard. I wish they would add BHM-BNA, would give much more flexibility out of BHM. Flew BHM-CHS the other week, and there were no connecting itineraries on Southwest available at all. Had to take DL instead.


WN can't be everything to everyone. The Southeast is challenging for WN because there are so many mid-sized cities and two very strong hubs at ATL & CLT.
 
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stl07
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Re: Southwest Announces Colorado Springs, Savannah, and Jackson

Thu Oct 22, 2020 6:42 pm

BA744PHX wrote:
dbo861 wrote:
jplatts wrote:
In addition to SAV-ATL/BWI/MDW/DAL/BNA, WN adding SAV-DEN/HOU/STL nonstop service might also be possibilities with DEN, HOU, and STL being three of the top markets traveled to from SAV.


jplatts wrote:
In addition to COS-BWI/DAL/PHX, WN adding COS-MDW/HOU/MCI/LAS/STL nonstop service are also possibilities due to the geographical location of COS and connections available at MDW, HOU, MCI, LAS, and STL on WN.


I guarantee SAV or COS won’t see a third of the cities you’re suggesting, at least not for several years. Both will probably start with 3 daily flights total to two hubs, and maybe Saturday only service to an additional city. I could even see SAV only getting something like 3 daily to BWI initially, or 2x BWI and 1x to MDW or STL.

Of the new cities added today, I doubt any of them will see more than 5 daily flights anytime in the next several years. Not the 8 destinations listed above. Just my prediction though.


I don't see BNA or STL being candidates, they need both large O&D plus connections to make these new smaller markets work. I do agree both SAV/JAN are likely to have BWI/DAL, if there is a third city option that is really a toss up with TPA/ATL.

I wouldn't write them off for a seasonal flight considering that G4 made it work
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jplatts
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Re: Southwest Announces Colorado Springs, Savannah, and Jackson

Thu Oct 22, 2020 6:59 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
I'll take COS-PHX/DAL/MDW, wild card of COS-LAS or COS-DEN (despite the small distance, WN just added MCO-RSW)


airlinewatcher1 wrote:
My initial predictions for COS:

DEN x2 (short distance, but so many good connection opportunities)


drdisque wrote:
I agree that they won't fly COS-DEN. Way too short for WN.


I agree that WN will probably never operate COS-DEN nonstop service, even with DEN being one of the largest WN stations, due to COS-DEN being shorter than any nonstop route operated by WN. Even WN's interisland Hawaii nonstop routes are longer than COS-DEN.

List of shortest US3 nonstop routes in the US:
ABE-PHL - 55 mi (AA)
SFO-STS - 66 mi (UA)
ORD-MKE - 67 mi (AA/UA)
COS-DEN - 73 mi (UA)
CLL-IAH - 74 mi (UA)
DTW-LAN - 74 mi (DL)
CLT-GSP - 75 mi (AA)
MSP-RST - 76 mi (DL)
CHO-IAD - 77 mi (UA)
SFO-MRY - 77 mi (UA)
ATL-CSG - 83 mi (DL)
CLT-GSO - 83 mi (AA)
MDT-PHL - 84 mi (AA)
ORD-SBN - 84 mi (UA)

List of shortest WN nonstop routes:
OGG-KOA - 84 mi
HNL-OGG - 100 mi
HNL-LIH - 102 mi
MCO-RSW - 133 mi
MDW-GRR - 137 mi
DEN-HDN - 141 mi
AUS-HOU - 148 mi
ATL-GSP - 153 mi
BWI-ORF - 159 mi
HNL-KOA - 163 mi
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Southwest Announces Colorado Springs, Savannah, and Jackson

Thu Oct 22, 2020 7:00 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
joeblow10 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

Any data to back this up? No wall street airline analysts are predicting a bankruptcy from a US major. Consensus is even on profits by the 2nd part of 2021

Maybe this made sense in April/May, but hardly anyone who analyzes the industry for a living is sharing your opinion.

Your points about LFs and demand are inaccurate as well, this is the time to find new revenue streams....like literally every other carrier on the face of the earth is....


I’m not going to disagree on the bankruptcy point but profits by 2Q21? Anyone in the industry will be lucky to see one profitable quarter in 2021. It’s probably going to be early 22 before the industry returns to profitability, assuming we get a successful vaccine.

Yes, TSA passed 1mil last week for the first time. But that’s still 35% of normal traffic and it’s all low yielding leisure. The business traffic won’t be back until 3Q-4Q21 at the earliest... IF a vaccine is widely rolled out by mid next year. WN has the cash to hold on, so does DL - the rest of the industry may very well be in for possible bankruptcies without more govt money


A few things here:
1. Where did I say Q2 2021? Read it again, I said 2nd part of 2021 (Q3 or Q4).

2. AA, arguably the most financially distressed of the US majors, is projected to be at break-even in Q4 2021 (cash break-even before then)
Image
https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=AAL ... b=earnings

3. UA has ~20B in liquidity and was burning ~20M/day, AS has 4 years of liquidity at current burn rates, G4 is close to break-even (and actually broke even in June), SY is currently profitable, & NK/B6 are leisure carriers, so who else from the US would be declaring bankruptcy?

4. I think people are a bit confused on the profit piece, airlines don't need traffic at 100% or even 80% of 2019 levels to break-even, listen to the earnings calls and investor reports. AS today said they need 60% of 2019 revenues (building in for lower yields) to break-even, AA said they need 65-70%.

Remember that the airlines as a whole are materially smaller & more efficient now than the beginning of 2020. Even with fares down 10-20%, (range given in earnings calls) break-even LFs are materially lower due to fuel, salaries, and other expenses being heavily decreased. Meaning even at 70-75% of normal passengers, most US airlines should be breaking even, even assuming business travel is heavily depressed.
Last edited by Midwestindy on Thu Oct 22, 2020 7:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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CALMSP
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Re: Southwest Announces Colorado Springs, Savannah, and Jackson

Thu Oct 22, 2020 7:02 pm

airlinewatcher1 wrote:
My initial predictions for COS:

DEN x2 (short distance, but so many good connection opportunities)
MDW x1
DAL x1
PHX x2
LAS x2

It also would not surprise me to see LAX sometime soon. WN is really eating UA's lunch in Colorado, and also to a lesser extent, F9. It will be interesting to see what becomes of F9 at COS.


I'm just curious where/how you are getting your comments for "eating UA's lunch in Colorado". what is that info based on? Announcing COS & HDN?
 
joeblow10
Posts: 463
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Re: Southwest Announces Colorado Springs, Savannah, and Jackson

Thu Oct 22, 2020 7:05 pm

CALMSP wrote:
airlinewatcher1 wrote:
My initial predictions for COS:

DEN x2 (short distance, but so many good connection opportunities)
MDW x1
DAL x1
PHX x2
LAS x2

It also would not surprise me to see LAX sometime soon. WN is really eating UA's lunch in Colorado, and also to a lesser extent, F9. It will be interesting to see what becomes of F9 at COS.


I'm just curious where/how you are getting your comments for "eating UA's lunch in Colorado". what is that info based on? Announcing COS & HDN?


Granted this was back in June - and obviously COVID is going on - but WN was back to something like 80-90% of pre COVID capacity at DEN, while UA was less than 50%. I’m sure the gap has closed since then, but they were eating their lunch for awhile there.

And yes - I would say WN adding COS and to a lesser extent, HDN/MTJ is going to further UA’s position as 2nd place in CO. Connection wise they may still be king, but the local traffic that was already more WN centric is only going to get more so. I would much rather fly a 737 to connect in MDW out of the Springs than on those god awful CR2s UA runs to LAX and ORD among other places
 
CALMSP
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Re: Southwest Announces Colorado Springs, Savannah, and Jackson

Thu Oct 22, 2020 7:12 pm

joeblow10 wrote:
CALMSP wrote:
airlinewatcher1 wrote:
My initial predictions for COS:

DEN x2 (short distance, but so many good connection opportunities)
MDW x1
DAL x1
PHX x2
LAS x2

It also would not surprise me to see LAX sometime soon. WN is really eating UA's lunch in Colorado, and also to a lesser extent, F9. It will be interesting to see what becomes of F9 at COS.


I'm just curious where/how you are getting your comments for "eating UA's lunch in Colorado". what is that info based on? Announcing COS & HDN?


Granted this was back in June - and obviously COVID is going on - but WN was back to something like 80-90% of pre COVID capacity at DEN, while UA was less than 50%. I’m sure the gap has closed since then, but they were eating their lunch for awhile there.

And yes - I would say WN adding COS and to a lesser extent, HDN/MTJ is going to further UA’s position as 2nd place in CO. Connection wise they may still be king, but the local traffic that was already more WN centric is only going to get more so. I would much rather fly a 737 to connect in MDW out of the Springs than on those god awful CR2s UA runs to LAX and ORD among other places



Well, comparing anything to the last few months isn't reality, and I'd say more kudos to UA for recognizing a reduced schedule was needed.

Destinations served in Colorado (and you will never see WN overtake UA in Colorado):

UA: DEN/COS/HDN/MTJ/EGE/ASE/DRO/GUC/GJT/PUB
WN: DEN/COS/HDN/MTJ
 
TYSflyer
Posts: 317
Joined: Wed Jan 11, 2017 5:44 pm

Re: Southwest Announces Colorado Springs, Savannah, and Jackson

Thu Oct 22, 2020 7:12 pm

AVLAirlineFreq wrote:
I'm really surprised to see JAN back.

So in terms of airports in markets now completely unserved by WN as ranked by enplanements in the 48 states, I have:

MYR
SYR
TYS
MSN
GSO

Does that look correct?

This add today to the other markets by WN seems to hurt me a little more than any of the others in the recent past as I cannot fathom what JAN would have over any of the others on this list besides they have served there before. Nothing against Jackson as I lived for many years near there. TYS airport authority has said for years that they felt they were close to securing WN, but I have to wonder if there is any validity to that. They seem to have no desire to serve East Tennessee besides forcing people to drive to BNA.
 
joeblow10
Posts: 463
Joined: Mon Jun 04, 2018 11:58 pm

Re: Southwest Announces Colorado Springs, Savannah, and Jackson

Thu Oct 22, 2020 7:23 pm

CALMSP wrote:
joeblow10 wrote:
CALMSP wrote:

I'm just curious where/how you are getting your comments for "eating UA's lunch in Colorado". what is that info based on? Announcing COS & HDN?


Granted this was back in June - and obviously COVID is going on - but WN was back to something like 80-90% of pre COVID capacity at DEN, while UA was less than 50%. I’m sure the gap has closed since then, but they were eating their lunch for awhile there.

And yes - I would say WN adding COS and to a lesser extent, HDN/MTJ is going to further UA’s position as 2nd place in CO. Connection wise they may still be king, but the local traffic that was already more WN centric is only going to get more so. I would much rather fly a 737 to connect in MDW out of the Springs than on those god awful CR2s UA runs to LAX and ORD among other places



Well, comparing anything to the last few months isn't reality, and I'd say more kudos to UA for recognizing a reduced schedule was needed.

Destinations served in Colorado (and you will never see WN overtake UA in Colorado):

UA: DEN/COS/HDN/MTJ/EGE/ASE/DRO/GUC/GJT/PUB
WN: DEN/COS/HDN/MTJ


90% of Colorado lives along the Front Range.. basically, WN and UA are competing over DEN and COS. WN was already winning the O&D battle at DEN - now with this, I'd be shocked if they don't make the same inroads among UA/F9 customers at COS.

UA might have "more ops" - but that doesn't mean they are the local favorite or that they pick up the most local traffic
 
bob75013
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Re: Southwest Announces Colorado Springs, Savannah, and Jackson

Thu Oct 22, 2020 7:26 pm

jfklganyc wrote:


One airline is going to go into bankruptcy… And they are all going to follow. Just like in the mid 2000s. The only question at this point, who’s going to go in first and start a chain reaction


How could I have possibly missed the announcement that WN went bankrupt in the mid 2000s?
 
airlinewatcher1
Posts: 129
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Re: Southwest Announces Colorado Springs, Savannah, and Jackson

Thu Oct 22, 2020 7:56 pm

I can say just from anecdotal experience that WN has easily become the preferred carrier around the Denver area. There seems to be less and less of a reason to need to fly UA, unless you need to fly somewhere specifically where WN doesn't go. I do think UA has improved in recent years, but they still don't have the good reputation of DL, for instance. And F9 has become the airline that everybody loves to hate, but enough people keep coming back to only because of the low fares.
 
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ADent
Posts: 1127
Joined: Fri Dec 22, 2006 12:11 pm

Re: Southwest Announces Colorado Springs, Savannah, and Jackson

Thu Oct 22, 2020 7:59 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
This expansion by Southwest would make me very nervous if I had any long term interest: Employment investment Etc
If you are out there every day, and you really take a hard look at what is going on, this is not the time to embark on a 10+ city expansion.
Nothing is making money. Loads are still only a fraction of what they were. God only knows what the yields are.
This kind of expansion in this environment is reckless.


Largely agree - but the pilots and already getting paid (no layoffs) and the planes are getting paid for (owned or leases).

These routes will add to the bottom line if they cover the cost of fuel, additional maintenance costs, and airport costs (gate lease, contractors at airport). No need to generate a full profit.

In the meantime until the planes/pilots are needed elsewhere this does some route finding and could throw a wrench in the competitors plans/recovery.
 
flyfresno
Posts: 1079
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Re: Southwest Announces Colorado Springs, Savannah, and Jackson

Thu Oct 22, 2020 8:00 pm

jetmatt777 wrote:
flyfresno wrote:
Wow FAT gets snubbed big time. Just one comparison, in 2019, FAT had in 1,964,489 total pax while COS had 1,671,757. ALSO, FAT went up by over 10% 2018-2019, COS went down by 3%. Gotta wonder whether gate space has anything to do with this...


COS is quickly becoming the south suburb of Denver. Plenty of demand that isn't reflected in the boarding totals, as most people just drive to DEN.


Agreed, but two things to reply to that:

1) Perhaps they are changing their tune, but why would WN give up economies of scale and potentially cannibalize flights in such a large station in favor of COS, especially when DEN is a de facto hub? I realize that there will definitely be a number of WN FFs who will migrate to COS no matter what, but does WN specifically want to target those types of people? Wouldn't WN want to use these flights to mostly grab *new* passengers?

2) I don't live in that region, but how many nonstops and what sort of fares will it take to stop leakage? Would someone, for example, fly COS-MDW-LGA rather than drive to DEN and fly straight to LGA, assuming the same fares? What if COS is 10% higher? 20%?
 
joeblow10
Posts: 463
Joined: Mon Jun 04, 2018 11:58 pm

Re: Southwest Announces Colorado Springs, Savannah, and Jackson

Thu Oct 22, 2020 8:23 pm

flyfresno wrote:
jetmatt777 wrote:
flyfresno wrote:
Wow FAT gets snubbed big time. Just one comparison, in 2019, FAT had in 1,964,489 total pax while COS had 1,671,757. ALSO, FAT went up by over 10% 2018-2019, COS went down by 3%. Gotta wonder whether gate space has anything to do with this...


COS is quickly becoming the south suburb of Denver. Plenty of demand that isn't reflected in the boarding totals, as most people just drive to DEN.


Agreed, but two things to reply to that:

1) Perhaps they are changing their tune, but why would WN give up economies of scale and potentially cannibalize flights in such a large station in favor of COS, especially when DEN is a de facto hub? I realize that there will definitely be a number of WN FFs who will migrate to COS no matter what, but does WN specifically want to target those types of people? Wouldn't WN want to use these flights to mostly grab *new* passengers?

2) I don't live in that region, but how many nonstops and what sort of fares will it take to stop leakage? Would someone, for example, fly COS-MDW-LGA rather than drive to DEN and fly straight to LGA, assuming the same fares? What if COS is 10% higher? 20%?


I think WN is making a play for the Front Range as a whole. I don't think it's any different than UA having it's DEN hub and serving most of the other hubs from COS. WN is going to be using much larger planes for sure, but I don't anticipate them starting more than 5-7x a day to various cities. It's the "option" for the COS local to take if they would rather connect than drive to Denver.

Personally - I'll gladly take a slightly higher fare and/or a connection to fly than drive. Colorado traffic has become a real mess... both I-25 and I-70. I think WN is targeting precisely that consumer who is willing to avoid the traffic and fly local.
 
evank516
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Re: Southwest Announces Colorado Springs, Savannah, and Jackson

Thu Oct 22, 2020 8:25 pm

I’m wondering if COS makes the argument for other cities that have their own airport but have a major WN station down the road? SRQ, DAB, MLB, TLH come to kind. I also wonder if they found a way to return to EYW?

Maybe resume some discontinued routes at ISP? If they’re not going to get the slots they need at LGA, and they’re not going to JFK, they have plenty of room at ISP to add flights and I believe they have quite some time left on their lease there too.
 
Cubsrule
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Re: Southwest Announces Colorado Springs, Savannah, and Jackson

Thu Oct 22, 2020 8:32 pm

joeblow10 wrote:
flyfresno wrote:
jetmatt777 wrote:

COS is quickly becoming the south suburb of Denver. Plenty of demand that isn't reflected in the boarding totals, as most people just drive to DEN.


Agreed, but two things to reply to that:

1) Perhaps they are changing their tune, but why would WN give up economies of scale and potentially cannibalize flights in such a large station in favor of COS, especially when DEN is a de facto hub? I realize that there will definitely be a number of WN FFs who will migrate to COS no matter what, but does WN specifically want to target those types of people? Wouldn't WN want to use these flights to mostly grab *new* passengers?

2) I don't live in that region, but how many nonstops and what sort of fares will it take to stop leakage? Would someone, for example, fly COS-MDW-LGA rather than drive to DEN and fly straight to LGA, assuming the same fares? What if COS is 10% higher? 20%?


I think WN is making a play for the Front Range as a whole. I don't think it's any different than UA having it's DEN hub and serving most of the other hubs from COS. WN is going to be using much larger planes for sure, but I don't anticipate them starting more than 5-7x a day to various cities. It's the "option" for the COS local to take if they would rather connect than drive to Denver.

Personally - I'll gladly take a slightly higher fare and/or a connection to fly than drive. Colorado traffic has become a real mess... both I-25 and I-70. I think WN is targeting precisely that consumer who is willing to avoid the traffic and fly local.


Because of how WN schedules, it's often the case that the last flight out isn't especially late or that the first flight in isn't especially early, even at large stations like DEN. For many business travelers - me included - those are vitally important. So if the last flight DEN-XXX leaves at 4:00 and there's a 6:00 COS-Hub flight that connects to a later Hub-XXX flight, that's valuable. And WN's scheduling practices create a lot of those opportunities, although the specific involved cities vary schedule to schedule.
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ScottB
Posts: 7112
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Re: Southwest Announces Colorado Springs, Savannah, and Jackson

Thu Oct 22, 2020 8:34 pm

airlinewatcher1 wrote:
I can say just from anecdotal experience that WN has easily become the preferred carrier around the Denver area.


It ain't just anecdotal. WN was in 2019Q3 the leading carrier by market share in 26 of the top 50 O&D markets from DEN. UA led in 14 markets -- primarily UA current or former hubs and markets not served by WN non-stop from DEN.
 
ibthebigd
Posts: 375
Joined: Sat Nov 11, 2017 12:12 pm

Re: Southwest Announces Colorado Springs, Savannah, and Jackson

Thu Oct 22, 2020 8:36 pm

I would have thought Southwest would of added FAT before any of these destinations.

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jfklganyc
Posts: 6074
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Re: Southwest Announces Colorado Springs, Savannah, and Jackson

Thu Oct 22, 2020 8:37 pm

bob75013 wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:


One airline is going to go into bankruptcy… And they are all going to follow. Just like in the mid 2000s. The only question at this point, who’s going to go in first and start a chain reaction


How could I have possibly missed the announcement that WN went bankrupt in the mid 2000s?


They didnt. Every legacy did. When legacies were called majors, and Southwest was called a scrappy LCC. And guess what WN is now? Number 4.

Get ready for an airline industry financial apocalypse...it is coming!
 
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9lflyguy
Posts: 179
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Re: Southwest Announces Colorado Springs, Savannah, and Jackson

Thu Oct 22, 2020 8:41 pm

Well, comparing anything to the last few months isn't reality, and I'd say more kudos to UA for recognizing a reduced schedule was needed.

Destinations served in Colorado (and you will never see WN overtake UA in Colorado):

UA: DEN/COS/HDN/MTJ/EGE/ASE/DRO/GUC/GJT/PUB
WN: DEN/COS/HDN/MTJ


In destinations, probably not. In passengers carried, it's possible. And lets be honest, how many of those UA routes are EAS subsidies?
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jplatts
Posts: 3794
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Re: Southwest Announces Colorado Springs, Savannah, and Jackson

Thu Oct 22, 2020 8:41 pm

evank516 wrote:
Maybe resume some discontinued routes at ISP? If they’re not going to get the slots they need at LGA, and they’re not going to JFK, they have plenty of room at ISP to add flights and I believe they have quite some time left on their lease there too.


I agree that the return of ISP-MDW nonstop service is a possibility with there being a significant amount of demand to NYC from MDW prior to WN pulling out of EWR last year and with the majority of the traffic on WN's MDW-LGA nonstop flights being O&D traffic (at least prior to the COVID-19 pandemic).

WN also still had some O&D traffic on ISP-MDW after adding MDW-LGA/EWR nonstop service but prior to dropping ISP-MDW nonstop service.

A link to the load factors, PDEW's, and number of passengers on WN MDW-LGA/EWR/ISP in 2011 and 2012 can be found at https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1448475&start=50#p22305525.

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