As per this morning's 8-K filing, Southwest intends to start flights to/from SRQ (Sarasota, FL) in Q1 2021:

In addition to these previously announced destinations, today the Company announces its intention to commence new service to Sarasota Bradenton International Airport in Florida in first quarter 2021. The Company is leveraging additional airports in or near cities where its Customer base is large, along with adding easier access to popular leisure-oriented destinations from across its domestic-focused network.

https://seekingalpha.com/filing/5230339

Adding back previous FL cities. Maybe EYW will be back soon as well.

First thought: yay, another Florida destination
Second thought: kinda close to TPA
Third thought: What's Fresno gotta do to get WN service?

FAT needs to get a beach? Some big base of leisure travelers, which is going to be the support for SRQ.

AWACSooner wrote:

First thought: yay, another Florida destination
Second thought: kinda close to TPA
Third thought: What's Fresno gotta do to get WN service?

Close but not too close to TPA. Many airlines in recent years have started or greatly expanded SRQ service without cannibalizing their TPA service. G4 is probably the best example (PIE and of course PGD is even closer than TPA), but F9 and others have done the same thing.

As far as Fresno - it’s a summer add. I would imagine it had a good chance of coming with the next round of summer adds whenever that gets announced. That said, I’m not really sure the market is huge in the current environment, so I could see them passing on it for now. Zero business travel and your leisure travelers are perfectly willing to fly into SFO or SMF and drive to Yosemite, etc.

My guess is MDW/BWI/BNA/ATL- SRQ

Crosswind787 wrote:

My guess is MDW/BWI/BNA/ATL- SRQ

I would add HOU to your list. Good market from Houston to the Florida gulf coast cities.

SRQ: the new PSP. In all seriousness, as said elsewhere by many, if it loses less than sitting on the ground, why not? I wish them luck.

Crosswind787 wrote:

My guess is MDW/BWI/BNA/ATL- SRQ

WN adding DAL-SRQ nonstop service might also be a possibility with
(a) AA currently being the only airline serving SRQ nonstop from the DFW/DAL market,
(b) WN recently adding nonstop service out of DAL to other leisure destinations such as HDN and MTJ, and
(c) DFW/DAL being one of the top markets traveled to from SRQ.

I had a feeling WN would “return” to SRQ. It was surprising that it was one of the Air Tran destinations that they dropped.

SWADawg wrote:

I would add HOU to your list. Good market from Houston to the Florida gulf coast cities.

I agree that WN adding SRQ-HOU nonstop service is a possibility due to
(a) WN already serving most of its Florida destinations nonstop from HOU,
(b) HOU being one of WN's largest stations, and
(c) HOU being located in a good geographical location for connections to Florida from destinations further west.

WN’s new service announcements are getting interesting. To see them add an airport like SRQ which is sandwiched between TPA and RSW I’d be interested to see if this pattern continues in other similar cities. Wonder if they will look into something like MLB or DAB on the edge of MCO’s catchement area.

Flyers using SRQ tend to be wealthier than those opting to make the drive to TPA, PIE, or PGD. The airport is close to the city centers of both Sarasota and Bradenton, close to the suburbs to the south and east and it is also a quick drive to the excellent beaches. So I can understand why SRQ is being targeted by airlines.

SRQ's traffic tends to be very seasonal, with December to March being the peak and traffic reduced in the Spring, Summer and Fall due to the modest number of business travelers in the area. However, WN has a certain cachet that should allow them to appeal to SRQ passengers, so I expect them to do reasonably well in this market.

The other Florida market WN should consider is DAB, which is badly underserved, yet is a recognized tourist destination, with a nice airport and serves a fairly large catchment area along the NE coast of Florida. Also, the local government in Daytona Beach would pay incentives to get WN's service.

Wow another profitable AirTran destination they should have never Axed during the merger.

Flyguy

Please let my screen name come true!

SWADawg wrote:

Adding back previous FL cities. Maybe EYW will be back soon as well.

SWAPA killed That operation over Runway safety limits. Unless they relocate the Airline operation under a joint venture at the Key West Navel Air station it's not coming back.

Flyguy

CMHSRQ wrote:

Please let my screen name come true!

It will Via BWI or MDW.

Flyguy

wnflyguy wrote:

SWADawg wrote:

Adding back previous FL cities. Maybe EYW will be back soon as well.

SWAPA killed That operation over Runway safety limits. Unless they relocate the Airline operation under a joint venture at the Key West Navel Air station it's not coming back.

Flyguy

Southwest ended Key West in the early 2010s. Since then there’s been a runway extension. Is the additional length not enough?

wnflyguy wrote:

SWADawg wrote:

Adding back previous FL cities. Maybe EYW will be back soon as well.

SWAPA killed That operation over Runway safety limits. Unless they relocate the Airline operation under a joint venture at the Key West Navel Air station it's not coming back.

Flyguy

SWAPA had zip to do with getting EYW pulled. SWAPA doesn’t determine the runway safety margins, the FAA Ops Specs signed off by the POI are what determines those limitations. Since WN wasn’t allowed to amend their Ops Specs to allow for grooved Runway surfaces to be counted as dry like most of the other Airlines that operate out of there then WN could only operate out of there with a prohibitively restrictive passenger and fuel load under wet runway conditions.

AWACSooner wrote:

What's Fresno gotta do to get WN service?

1. Needs to be wealthier. It was #267 out of 276 metro areas in the United States (excluding Puerto Rico) ranked by capita income in 2010. Granted, El Paso and Harlingen both ranked even lower but they've also been in the company's network for 40+ years. HRL also serves a reasonable amount of tourism to South Padre Island.
2. Needs to be farther from the two key regional travel markets -- L.A. and S.F. That's not going to get better. The demand to SAN, LAS, DEN, and PHX is barely large enough each for a daily 737 although low fare stimulation would help.

With WN doing the network equivalent of searching the couch cushions for loose change over the past several months, I could see them adding FAT to SAN/LAS/DEN/PHX. 1-2x daily at most. Maybe OAK to try to capture some connections to SEA/PDX/GEG/BOI.

A few years ago, GK said that there are 50 destinations in the US that WN has on their list of possible cities... what’s next on the list? I’m going to guess ANC, MYR, TYS, MSN, BZN, or a return to EYW...

AWACSooner wrote:

First thought: yay, another Florida destination
Second thought: kinda close to TPA
Third thought: What's Fresno gotta do to get WN service?

Evidently, there is nothing they can do at this point. They have the numbers, space and now have the income base. Perhaps perception is a too big a hurdle to overcome...

Flflyer83 wrote:

A few years ago, GK said that there are 50 destinations in the US that WN has on their list of possible cities... what’s next on the list? I’m going to guess ANC, MYR, TYS, MSN, BZN, or a return to EYW...

I believe that it was 50 cities in North and South America.

I think BWI and MDW service are locks. HOU would seem the next best option to connect their network to/from the western US. ATL and BNA are wildcards in my opinion.

This has me wondering as others above mentioned already about DAB and MLB. WN seems all about network building via hubs (I know, they don’t have “hubs”). With that approach, each of those east coast Florida airports should be able to support 1-2 daily BWI flights and 1-2 westbound flight (MDW, HOU or BNA).

EYW to MCO too??

WN’s recent adds have certainly piqued my interest. They’ve been kind of lackluster in my opinion after they started LGA-MCI. Given the crazy reductions by other carriers I’m staring to give them a second look when it comes to travel once I’m ready again. Let’s see what other cities they announce because they meet a good portion of my leisure travel needs thus far. Just one city missing.

Flflyer83 wrote:

A few years ago, GK said that there are 50 destinations in the US that WN has on their list of possible cities... what’s next on the list? I’m going to guess ANC, MYR, TYS, MSN, BZN, or a return to EYW...

Here are the top remaining U.S. markets without WN service by number of domestic passengers in 2019:
ANC, MYR, SYR, TYS, MSN, GSO, XNA, DAY, FAT, VPS

Flflyer83 wrote:

A few years ago, GK said that there are 50 destinations in the US that WN has on their list of possible cities... what’s next on the list? I’m going to guess ANC, MYR, TYS, MSN, BZN, or a return to EYW...

ANC = too far, and too seasonal (Sure, HNL is far, but it gets 3x the traffic. Even OGG gets a lot more traffic.)

BZN = too summer seasonal, without getting the big fare premium of some Colorado ski destinations

I dismissed the idea of 50 when GK was first cited, not thinking they would consider ORD or MIA and compete with their own ops. I can be happy to see what they try and see what succeeds long term.

PVD757 wrote:

I think BWI and MDW service are locks. HOU would seem the next best option to connect their network to/from the western US. ATL and BNA are wildcards in my opinion.

This has me wondering as others above mentioned already about DAB and MLB. WN seems all about network building via hubs (I know, they don’t have “hubs”). With that approach, each of those east coast Florida airports should be able to support 1-2 daily BWI flights and 1-2 westbound flight (MDW, HOU or BNA).

EYW to MCO too??

I could see DAB supporting 2x BWI and BNA. 1x MDW and DAL would probably go over rather well too. I remember when FL was in DAB their BWI flight outperformed ATL in terms of loads. I think loads were in the 90s.

PVD757 wrote:

I think BWI and MDW service are locks. HOU would seem the next best option to connect their network to/from the western US. ATL and BNA are wildcards in my opinion.

This has me wondering as others above mentioned already about DAB and MLB. WN seems all about network building via hubs (I know, they don’t have “hubs”). With that approach, each of those east coast Florida airports should be able to support 1-2 daily BWI flights and 1-2 westbound flight (MDW, HOU or BNA).

EYW to MCO too??

Although WN is certainly looking in a variety of places for possible adds (the finding the coins in the couch metaphor is apt), they do not seem too eager to open smaller stations. The trouble with places on the east coast of Florida is that WN's weakness in the northeast means that their network is probably better suited to destinations on the west coast and even in the panhandle - look at how they make both PNS and ECP work even though they're only an hour apart or so.

MIflyer12 wrote:

ANC = too far, and too seasonal (Sure, HNL is far, but it gets 3x the traffic. Even OGG gets a lot more traffic.)

The only way that ANC could work for WN would be PDX-ANC.

ANC would be too far from OAK/SJC/SMF in order to operate efficiently. That leaves SEA/PDX. ANC-SEA is already way too crowded as it is. So PDX is it. I could see 2x daily PDX-ANC and maybe even 1x daily PDX-FAI.

MIflyer12 wrote:

BZN = too summer seasonal, without getting the big fare premium of some Colorado ski destinations.

That's what people said about PSP, and yet here we are in 2020. BZN would probably have to be Saturday-only from OAK or SJC and maybe SMF.

My Guess for SRQ
2 BWI
3 ATL
1 DAL
1 MDW
But since this is the new HUB and Spoke WN
It will probably be.
2 BWI
4 TPA
3 FLL
4 MCO

Flyguy

jplatts wrote:

Flflyer83 wrote:

A few years ago, GK said that there are 50 destinations in the US that WN has on their list of possible cities... what’s next on the list? I’m going to guess ANC, MYR, TYS, MSN, BZN, or a return to EYW...

Here are the top remaining U.S. markets without WN service by number of domestic passengers in 2019:
ANC, MYR, SYR, TYS, MSN, GSO, XNA, DAY, FAT, VPS

XNA would be a great add for WN.

wnflyguy wrote:

My Guess for SRQ
2 BWI
3 ATL
1 DAL
1 MDW
But since this is the new HUB and Spoke WN
It will probably be.
2 BWI
4 TPA
3 FLL
4 MCO

Flyguy

If you're basing your logic for SRQ-FLL/TPA/MCO based on WN's recent MCO-RSW add, then that is certainly possible, but it would probably be more like 2x MCO, 1x FLL, 1x TPA.

AC4500 wrote:

MIflyer12 wrote:

ANC = too far, and too seasonal (Sure, HNL is far, but it gets 3x the traffic. Even OGG gets a lot more traffic.)

The only way that ANC could work for WN would be PDX-ANC.

ANC would be too far from OAK/SJC/SMF in order to operate efficiently. That leaves SEA/PDX. ANC-SEA is already way too crowded as it is. So PDX is it. I could see 2x daily PDX-ANC and maybe even 1x daily PDX-FAI.

If WN does add service to ANC, WN adding ANC-MDW/DEN/LAS/PHX nonstop service are also possibilities in addition to ANC-OAK/PDX/SJC/SMF nonstop service.

ANC-MDW is also likely within the range of Boeing 737's as AS, AA, and UA all have operated Boeing 737-800's on the ANC-ORD route. There are also airports in AK, BC, AB, SK, MB, ND, MN, and WI that WN can divert an ANC-MDW nonstop flight to, whereas California to Hawaii nonstop flights either require continuing towards the destination or turning back around.

WN would also be able to offer connections to Alaska from many destinations in the Eastern U.S. through MDW if it adds MDW-ANC nonstop service.

In a stretch I'd see SRQ-FLL for connections, but no to TPA and MCO. Too expensive to fly to those very close by cities and no local traffic between them.
I'd say ATL, BWI, MDW, DAL and possibly HOU, but MDW and DAL would handle connections to the West so iffy on HOU.

jplatts wrote:

AC4500 wrote:

MIflyer12 wrote:

ANC = too far, and too seasonal (Sure, HNL is far, but it gets 3x the traffic. Even OGG gets a lot more traffic.)

The only way that ANC could work for WN would be PDX-ANC.

ANC would be too far from OAK/SJC/SMF in order to operate efficiently. That leaves SEA/PDX. ANC-SEA is already way too crowded as it is. So PDX is it. I could see 2x daily PDX-ANC and maybe even 1x daily PDX-FAI.

If WN does add service to ANC, WN adding ANC-MDW/DEN/LAS/PHX nonstop service are also possibilities in addition to ANC-OAK/PDX/SJC/SMF nonstop service.

ANC-MDW is also likely within the range of Boeing 737's as AS, AA, and UA all have operated Boeing 737-800's on the ANC-ORD route. There are also airports in AK, BC, AB, SK, MB, ND, MN, and WI that WN can divert an ANC-MDW nonstop flight to, whereas California to Hawaii nonstop flights either require continuing towards the destination or turning back around.

WN would also be able to offer connections to Alaska from many destinations in the Eastern U.S. through MDW if it adds MDW-ANC nonstop service.

ANC-MDW even with that MAX will be restricted by Runway limitations at MDW.

ANC would like be just DEN,OAK and seasonal LAS and HNL.

Flyguy

wnflyguy wrote:

But since this is the new HUB and Spoke WN
4 TPA
3 FLL
4 MCO

PI4EVR wrote:

In a stretch I'd see SRQ-FLL for connections, but no to TPA and MCO. Too expensive to fly to those very close by cities and no local traffic between them.
I'd say ATL, BWI, MDW, DAL and possibly HOU, but MDW and DAL would handle connections to the West so iffy on HOU.

I certainly do not expect WN to ever serve TPA nonstop from SRQ with TPA-SRQ being only 40 miles long, which is shorter than any regularly scheduled nonstop route operated by AA, DL, UA, or WN.

I also probably do not expect WN to ever add SRQ-MCO nonstop service with MCO only being 104 miles long. WN can also connect passengers to SRQ from most of the domestic destinations outside of Florida through non-Florida airports.

I agree that WN adding SRQ-FLL nonstop service might be a possibility with (a) SRQ-FLL being 174 miles long, (b) WN already having some nonstop routes within the contiguous U.S. that are shorter than SRQ-FLL, and (c) there being some O&D on the SRQ-FLL route if WN adds SRQ-FLL nonstop service.

AC4500 wrote:

MIflyer12 wrote:

ANC = too far, and too seasonal (Sure, HNL is far, but it gets 3x the traffic. Even OGG gets a lot more traffic.)

The only way that ANC could work for WN would be PDX-ANC.

ANC would be too far from OAK/SJC/SMF in order to operate efficiently. That leaves SEA/PDX. ANC-SEA is already way too crowded as it is. So PDX is it. I could see 2x daily PDX-ANC and maybe even 1x daily PDX-FAI.

MIflyer12 wrote:

BZN = too summer seasonal, without getting the big fare premium of some Colorado ski destinations.

That's what people said about PSP, and yet here we are in 2020. BZN would probably have to be Saturday-only from OAK or SJC and maybe SMF.

I'm not sure what anybody is talking about here. PDX-ANC on WN? ANC wouldn't work in the summer? Please... the Alaska summer market is virtually unlimited in demand, if the price is right. WN could easily do DEN-ANC and OAK-ANC with 1-2x daily flights and be just fine.

BZN is the same story. The amount of demand being poured into Montana over the past 2-3 years is unbelievable, and yet it continues to see more added because it performs fairly well. To be sure, WN probably can't add 10x daily or more service a la MIA or COS, but a few flights a day wouldn't kill their ability to serve it. That's where WN will either have to deviate from the usual high frequency strategy, or choose not serve the cities.

evank516 wrote:

WN’s new service announcements are getting interesting. To see them add an airport like SRQ which is sandwiched between TPA and RSW I’d be interested to see if this pattern continues in other similar cities. Wonder if they will look into something like MLB or DAB on the edge of MCO’s catchement area.

Not sure about MLB, the 528 is very convenient compared to 275 through the treacherous bridges to St Pete.

It was stupid of WN to close SRQ in the first place.

EYW should be next on the list. When they opened EYW after the FL merger; "Key West is a destination our Customers have been eagerly awaiting." Yet look at them now.

Can we have FL back?

There is hardly any demand to SRQ west of the Mississippi, it's got to be:

MDW-SRQ
BWI-SRQ
BNA or ATL-SRQ
Wild card of HOU-SRQ

No Chance of FLL/MCO/TPA-SRQ:

RSW-MCO is a much longer drive than SRQ-MCO, and TPA-SRQ......c'mon now, SRQ is literally across the bay. AA doesn't even fly SRQ-MIA, if that says anything about the chances of SRQ-FLL....

joeblow10 wrote:

BZN is the same story. The amount of demand being poured into Montana over the past 2-3 years is unbelievable, and yet it continues to see more added because it performs fairly well. To be sure, WN probably can't add 10x daily or more service a la MIA or COS, but a few flights a day wouldn't kill their ability to serve it.

BZN would be no problem for today's WN because they've got such a huge operation at DEN. Basically it'd operate just like what they're planning for HDN and MTJ, but the market can support year-round service. 3x daily to DEN and weekend service to one or more of DAL/OAK/LAX/PHX/LAS/MDW would probably work.

Midwestindy wrote:

There is hardly any demand to SRQ west of the Mississippi

Even though DFW is located west of the Mississippi River, there is certainly some demand to SRQ from destinations west of the Mississippi River with AA serving SRQ nonstop from DFW. AA probably wouldn't be serving SRQ nonstop from DFW if enough demand to SRQ wasn't there from destinations west of the Mississippi River.

WN adding DAL-SRQ nonstop service is a possibility with there being some O&D between Dallas and Sarasota.

If they're jumping back into some of the closed FL cities I wonder if we could see them try some combo of MLI/PIA/BMI. Each on their own isn't very large but they combine for a sizeable population that's just far enough from MDW and STL to not be worth driving just to fly them.

Has Southwest pulled out of Cozumel?
Regarding FL: I think that VPS would have worked just as well as SRQ. A STL-VPS flight would be a hit given how many St. Louisans go to Destin

flymco753 wrote:

evank516 wrote:

WN’s new service announcements are getting interesting. To see them add an airport like SRQ which is sandwiched between TPA and RSW I’d be interested to see if this pattern continues in other similar cities. Wonder if they will look into something like MLB or DAB on the edge of MCO’s catchement area.

Not sure about MLB, the 528 is very convenient compared to 275 through the treacherous bridges to St Pete.

Good point. Had a funeral in Mims back in August and flew into MCO. Way easier to get to Brevard from MCO than Volusia to be honest.

jplatts wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

There is hardly any demand to SRQ west of the Mississippi

Even though DFW is located west of the Mississippi River, there is certainly some demand to SRQ from destinations west of the Mississippi River with AA serving SRQ nonstop from DFW. AA probably wouldn't be serving SRQ nonstop from DFW if enough demand to SRQ wasn't there from destinations west of the Mississippi River.

WN adding DAL-SRQ nonstop service is a possibility with there being some O&D between Dallas and Sarasota.

AA has grown quite a bit on SRQ-DFW. When they started it was a couple of RJs; now it goes up to 2x mainline during peak season.

My folks have a house in Lakewood Ranch - that whole area has been exploding over the past five years and even with COVID, there hasn't been any real sign of it slowing down in my visits down there throughout the year.

jplatts wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

There is hardly any demand to SRQ west of the Mississippi

Even though DFW is located west of the Mississippi River, there is certainly some demand to SRQ from destinations west of the Mississippi River with AA serving SRQ nonstop from DFW. AA probably wouldn't be serving SRQ nonstop from DFW if enough demand to SRQ wasn't there from destinations west of the Mississippi River.

WN adding DAL-SRQ nonstop service is a possibility with there being some O&D between Dallas and Sarasota.

The difference is that AA connects what very little "demand" there is through their DFW hub, which helps to fill up their DFW-SRQ flight(s). While Southwest does rely on some connections through DAL/HOU, their hubs and focus cities are more centered around O&D traffic from point A to point B. If AA had very little connecting traffic through their DFW hub to SRQ and had to solely rely on O&D demand, I don't think they would be flying that route at all.

777Mech wrote:

It was stupid of WN to close SRQ in the first place.

EYW should be next on the list. When they opened EYW after the FL merger; "Key West is a destination our Customers have been eagerly awaiting." Yet look at them now.

Can we have FL back?

I would LUV for EYW to be added. It would save a ton of drive time to MTH for us. With runway length being the major issue, I guess the 737-7 would have to be seriously weight restricted, and that doesn't sit well with WN I would wager. Just my butt in the seat pax opinion. I will let the experts speak more towards that.

First off with the SRQ-TPA and SRQ-MCO I was joking since there stupidly doing COS-DEN.
AirTran flew SRQ-MDW,ATL and BWI. I'd expect something similar.
2 daily SRQ-FLL wouldn't be a surprise for connecting it to other destinations.
Flyguy