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Cubsrule
Posts: 14586
Joined: Sat May 15, 2004 12:13 pm

Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Mon May 25, 2020 11:02 pm

United1 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
United1 wrote:

You are right I did get June and July backwards...sorry about that but the days, weeks and months have been running together for some strange unknown reason :scratchchin:

As for the US3 charging higher fares right now well yeah because unlike WN they are not trying to stimulate demand to fill their planes...quite the opposite actually. They have eliminated lots of those loss leaders simply because of social distancing. That being said at some point if they want to fill the planes they will have to drop pricing and stimulate demand...especially if business travel doesn't pick up.

This isn't like any previous recession and I don't think WN assuming the same rules apply and using the same tactics will necessarily work. WN was able to take advantage back in 2008 because it stopped being an airline and operated as a fuel trading company that happened to fly planes. That happened because WN got lucky with its fuel hedges. That situation doesn't apply this time...oil is not likely to spike...in fact it can't because as soon as oil hits a certain price it becomes profitable for US oil to ramp up again which will crash the price back down or at least level it out.

In 2008 UA, DL and AA all had to retire 100s of aircraft while WN was able to hang on and grow because the fuel hedges saved their balance sheet...that's how they gained market share. This time around is a bit different. All are hemorrhaging cash right now and none are going to be in a position to expand rapidly once we are on the tail end of this recession because all of them are going to be busy repairing their balance sheets. WN can probably hang onto its market share but I don't think they are going to be able to make inroads on UA, DL or even AA's share.


If legacies are still 20% smaller by end of 2022 and WN is larger than it was pre-COVID by then, they will automatically be gaining market share. It's really hard to argue that this downturn is not hitting legacies harder. Everyone is admitting that leisure is coming back before business travel and domestic is coming back before international.

It will be interesting for me to see what happens at DEN. I anticipate a huge battle there. If UA devotes a lot of resources to keep its market share at DEN against WN, that's less resources it will have in its other hubs.


You are assuming that WN can continue to grow...I'm not convinced of that for a few reasons. One even before the MAX debacle WN seemed to be loosing its way a bit. They entered IAD and didn't make any inroads, they scaled back their proposed Hawaii service, what little international service they have was scaled back, PHL was scaled back, ATL was scaled back, SFO was scaled back, EWR was eliminated. Two at the height of "we are scaling back service because of the MAX" WN sells 20 73Gs to UA...that doesn't seem like a company that was desperate for aircraft that seems like a company that can't figure out where to put new aircraft profitably. Don't get me wrong I think WN has an incredibly well built out profitable core network...I question their networks profitability once they get outside of that core...and their ability to expand that core.

I do think DEN is going to be interesting as it seems to be one of the home runs in WNs network. I don't know how it's going to all go down but last time there was a battle of DEN everyone counted UA out...we all know how that turned out WN grew, UA grew, the market grew and F9 lost. You are also assuming the US3 will be 20% smaller domestically I'm not. Even if they are smaller overall I think most of those cuts will be overseas not on the domestic network...the cuts certainly will not be on UAs domestic network. Domestic was where the money was being made pre-covid and domestic will be where the money is being made post covid.


I don’t understand your selective reading of the history. Why do you ignore their meteoric growth at BNA and STL? Their running numerous carriers (including CO and UA) out of MDW? Their success at DCA? The list goes on and on.
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United1
Posts: 4187
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Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Mon May 25, 2020 11:09 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
United1 wrote:
tphuang wrote:

If legacies are still 20% smaller by end of 2022 and WN is larger than it was pre-COVID by then, they will automatically be gaining market share. It's really hard to argue that this downturn is not hitting legacies harder. Everyone is admitting that leisure is coming back before business travel and domestic is coming back before international.

It will be interesting for me to see what happens at DEN. I anticipate a huge battle there. If UA devotes a lot of resources to keep its market share at DEN against WN, that's less resources it will have in its other hubs.


You are assuming that WN can continue to grow...I'm not convinced of that for a few reasons. One even before the MAX debacle WN seemed to be loosing its way a bit. They entered IAD and didn't make any inroads, they scaled back their proposed Hawaii service, what little international service they have was scaled back, PHL was scaled back, ATL was scaled back, SFO was scaled back, EWR was eliminated. Two at the height of "we are scaling back service because of the MAX" WN sells 20 73Gs to UA...that doesn't seem like a company that was desperate for aircraft that seems like a company that can't figure out where to put new aircraft profitably. Don't get me wrong I think WN has an incredibly well built out profitable core network...I question their networks profitability once they get outside of that core...and their ability to expand that core.

I do think DEN is going to be interesting as it seems to be one of the home runs in WNs network. I don't know how it's going to all go down but last time there was a battle of DEN everyone counted UA out...we all know how that turned out WN grew, UA grew, the market grew and F9 lost. You are also assuming the US3 will be 20% smaller domestically I'm not. Even if they are smaller overall I think most of those cuts will be overseas not on the domestic network...the cuts certainly will not be on UAs domestic network. Domestic was where the money was being made pre-covid and domestic will be where the money is being made post covid.


I don’t understand your selective reading of the history. Why do you ignore their meteoric growth at BNA and STL? Their running numerous carriers (including CO and UA) out of MDW? Their success at DCA? The list goes on and on.


I'm not selectively reading any part of WNs history. BNA, MDW and STL have been part of their core networks for years...they should be able to grow in those markets..and defend them. It's the non core ones I think they have a problem with.
I know the voices in my head aren't real but sometimes their ideas are just awesome!!!
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Tue May 26, 2020 12:10 am

About every airline, including the ever profitable WN, includes some routes for competitive reasons. Particularly if frequent flyers on other routes want service on those routes.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
tphuang
Posts: 5354
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Tue May 26, 2020 12:18 am

United1 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
United1 wrote:

You are right I did get June and July backwards...sorry about that but the days, weeks and months have been running together for some strange unknown reason :scratchchin:

As for the US3 charging higher fares right now well yeah because unlike WN they are not trying to stimulate demand to fill their planes...quite the opposite actually. They have eliminated lots of those loss leaders simply because of social distancing. That being said at some point if they want to fill the planes they will have to drop pricing and stimulate demand...especially if business travel doesn't pick up.

This isn't like any previous recession and I don't think WN assuming the same rules apply and using the same tactics will necessarily work. WN was able to take advantage back in 2008 because it stopped being an airline and operated as a fuel trading company that happened to fly planes. That happened because WN got lucky with its fuel hedges. That situation doesn't apply this time...oil is not likely to spike...in fact it can't because as soon as oil hits a certain price it becomes profitable for US oil to ramp up again which will crash the price back down or at least level it out.

In 2008 UA, DL and AA all had to retire 100s of aircraft while WN was able to hang on and grow because the fuel hedges saved their balance sheet...that's how they gained market share. This time around is a bit different. All are hemorrhaging cash right now and none are going to be in a position to expand rapidly once we are on the tail end of this recession because all of them are going to be busy repairing their balance sheets. WN can probably hang onto its market share but I don't think they are going to be able to make inroads on UA, DL or even AA's share.


If legacies are still 20% smaller by end of 2022 and WN is larger than it was pre-COVID by then, they will automatically be gaining market share. It's really hard to argue that this downturn is not hitting legacies harder. Everyone is admitting that leisure is coming back before business travel and domestic is coming back before international.

It will be interesting for me to see what happens at DEN. I anticipate a huge battle there. If UA devotes a lot of resources to keep its market share at DEN against WN, that's less resources it will have in its other hubs.


You are assuming that WN can continue to grow...I'm not convinced of that for a few reasons. One even before the MAX debacle WN seemed to be loosing its way a bit. They entered IAD and didn't make any inroads, they scaled back their proposed Hawaii service, what little international service they have was scaled back, PHL was scaled back, ATL was scaled back, SFO was scaled back, EWR was eliminated. Two at the height of "we are scaling back service because of the MAX" WN sells 20 73Gs to UA...that doesn't seem like a company that was desperate for aircraft that seems like a company that can't figure out where to put new aircraft profitably. Don't get me wrong I think WN has an incredibly well built out profitable core network...I question their networks profitability once they get outside of that core...and their ability to expand that core.

I do think DEN is going to be interesting as it seems to be one of the home runs in WNs network. I don't know how it's going to all go down but last time there was a battle of DEN everyone counted UA out...we all know how that turned out WN grew, UA grew, the market grew and F9 lost. You are also assuming the US3 will be 20% smaller domestically I'm not. Even if they are smaller overall I think most of those cuts will be overseas not on the domestic network...the cuts certainly will not be on UAs domestic network. Domestic was where the money was being made pre-covid and domestic will be where the money is being made post covid.



It's not easy to build new hubs when there is existing entrenched competition. That's why you see DL throwing boatload of money at SEA and remains a lot smaller than AS there. That's why these tough economical times are prime chances for airlines that are in better position financially to attack other airlines hubs or go from second place to first place. The legacy airlines will be hurting with a bunch of widebodies and not a lot of places to fly them to. All that feed on RJ is going to be really uneconomical going forward. So if you have the best balance sheet in the business and are among the least effected, how do you take advantage of the situation.

Let's say by next Q3, these are how much each airlines shrinking based on their international/widebody exposure, large corporate travel exposure and liquidity situation
DL will be 30% smaller
UA will be 35% smaller
AA will be 35 to 40% smaller
WN/B6/AS will be 15 to 20% smaller

Which stations do each airlines bring back first. I think all the LCCs are watching legacies moves to see what kind of plans they can make.

If we go by the assumption that all the airlines are trying to get back to cash positive first and protect relative few strategic project, then I think it's not unreasonable to think the following will happen to each of the legacies by end of next summer.
DL - Bring back the core hubs to close to pre-COVID size, although on more RJs. Build back up SEA to close to pre-COVID schedule. LAX will come back to close to pre-COVID schedule, although a little slower recovering than SEA. Bring back LGA to close to pre-COVID size in terms of number of flights. JFK will be slower to come back. I don't see them using all their slots given how international dependent their JFK op is. BOS is done as hub, probably 60 flight station by that time. CVG/RDU probably 30 to 40 flight stations.
AA - Bring back CLT/DFW asap. DCA comes back enough to avoid losing slots. Everything else suffers. In particular, JFK will be down to under 40 flights. LGA will be down to under 125 flights. NYC as a whole will be at least 50% smaller. LAX will be 50% smaller. MIA will be close to 50% smaller. All other stations will be between 30 to 40% smaller.
UA - Try to bring back DEN and ORD first. DEN as their most important strategic project and ORD to edge over AA. IAH also comes back soon, although it will suffer from south america exposure and low oil prices. IAD/LAX will be downsized. Both will be more than 50% smaller. Try to consolidate international stuff through EWR and SFO. Even so, I see EWR as a 250 to 300 flight station rather than over 400 by end of next summer. I see SFO as being 30% smaller too.

I don't think anything here is unreasonable. So, how do LCCs react to that?
 
phluser
Posts: 616
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 2:49 pm

Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Tue May 26, 2020 2:56 am

tphuang wrote:
Not saying they will succeed at PHL, but at least they still have a presence there.


Without new flights like BOS-PHL, LAX-PHL, SFO-PHL, SEA-PHL, DTW-PHL, MSP-PHL, and smaller markets like BUF-PHL, CLE-PHL, etc. it'd just be offering the same destinations (STL, DEN, MDW), but not enough destinations to really pressure American. It made the mistake last time not offering a full set of nonstop destinations in the east and top markets across the country, while US did and partner alliance. If it is going to do it half-hearted like last time, it will fail again. Demand is still suppressed, so WN would be losing money adding new destination flights. I don't think WN would really push for PHL, and it's too close to BWI without benefitng in a complementary way that growing in DCA would.
 
jetmatt777
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Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Tue May 26, 2020 3:52 am

Southwest is an airline stuck both technologically and culturally in 1979. Good luck, but they are not God's gift to aviation. They will likely grow in some markets but them using this as an opportunity to leapfrog anyone is simply wishful thinking.
 
Flflyer83
Posts: 88
Joined: Tue Apr 14, 2020 4:40 pm

Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Tue May 26, 2020 4:22 am

Why does WN trigger so many users of this forum?
 
WN732
Posts: 821
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Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Tue May 26, 2020 4:37 am

Flflyer83 wrote:
Why does WN trigger so many users of this forum?


I've often wondered the same thing. It's as age old as the A vs B group.
 
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KPDX
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Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Tue May 26, 2020 5:58 am

You can tell WN is doing the right thing by the sheer derangement people have towards the airline. Nuff said!
 
questions
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Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Tue May 26, 2020 6:13 am

tphuang wrote:
If legacies are still 20% smaller by end of 2022 and WN is larger than it was pre-COVID by then, they will automatically be gaining market share. It's really hard to argue that this downturn is not hitting legacies harder. Everyone is admitting that leisure is coming back before business travel and domestic is coming back before international.

It will be interesting for me to see what happens at DEN. I anticipate a huge battle there. If UA devotes a lot of resources to keep its market share at DEN against WN, that's less resources it will have in its other hubs.


Everyone? Everyone who? Who is admitting that?

You are forgetting the demand was first drastically reduced by the traveling public not wanting to fly then by government intervention.

You’re overlooking how the coronavirus pandemic is expected to play out. The industry will not “rebound” first with leisure traffic, then business and domestic followed by international. Leisure travelers may be packing onto the beaches in Florida and pool parties at the Lake of the Ozarks and WN may be helping getting them there. But as coronavirus hot spots develop and are *properly* reported, those overly confident leisure travelers will lose their sense of immortality.

We are not going to experience a methodical return to pre-COVID-19 traffic levels as you propose. This is not driven by the same factors as an economic recovery. The airline industry will not experience a V recovery or a swoosh recovery or a W recovery. It will be an ascent with a lot of turbulence.
 
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DarkSnowyNight
Posts: 2689
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Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Tue May 26, 2020 6:35 am

questions wrote:
tphuang wrote:
If legacies are still 20% smaller by end of 2022 and WN is larger than it was pre-COVID by then, they will automatically be gaining market share. It's really hard to argue that this downturn is not hitting legacies harder. Everyone is admitting that leisure is coming back before business travel and domestic is coming back before international.

It will be interesting for me to see what happens at DEN. I anticipate a huge battle there. If UA devotes a lot of resources to keep its market share at DEN against WN, that's less resources it will have in its other hubs.


Everyone? Everyone who? Who is admitting that?

You are forgetting the demand was first drastically reduced by the traveling public not wanting to fly then by government intervention.

You’re overlooking how the coronavirus pandemic is expected to play out. The industry will not “rebound” first with leisure traffic, then business and domestic followed by international. Leisure travelers may be packing onto the beaches in Florida and pool parties at the Lake of the Ozarks and WN may be helping getting them there. But as coronavirus hot spots develop and are *properly* reported, those overly confident leisure travelers will lose their sense of immortality.

We are not going to experience a methodical return to pre-COVID-19 traffic levels as you propose. This is not driven by the same factors as an economic recovery. The airline industry will not experience a V recovery or a swoosh recovery or a W recovery. It will be an ascent with a lot of turbulence.


I do not think you understand. No one is supposing Leisure traffic will bounce back to pre-Covid levels straight away; just that it will come back before business travel.

And even then, Leisure traffic will still not be what it was prior. What is for certain is that Business Travel is largely done-for. Outside of a few exceptional needs, companies that insist on remaining in that past will get slaughtered by their competition. This is even after Covid recovery, as several initially survival based paradigms will become norms.

I do agree that it will be a long time before even Leisure levels are back fully, if ever.

It does look as though WN are well positioned for this. And as for the rest of the Legacies, it is no surprise they are hit hardest. With the most expensive labor contracts and highest levels of encumbered debt, they have a lot of hustling to do if survival is really their plan...
"Nous ne sommes pas infectés. Il n'y a pas d'infection ici..."
 
tphuang
Posts: 5354
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Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Tue May 26, 2020 11:25 am

questions wrote:
tphuang wrote:
If legacies are still 20% smaller by end of 2022 and WN is larger than it was pre-COVID by then, they will automatically be gaining market share. It's really hard to argue that this downturn is not hitting legacies harder. Everyone is admitting that leisure is coming back before business travel and domestic is coming back before international.

It will be interesting for me to see what happens at DEN. I anticipate a huge battle there. If UA devotes a lot of resources to keep its market share at DEN against WN, that's less resources it will have in its other hubs.


Everyone? Everyone who? Who is admitting that?

You are forgetting the demand was first drastically reduced by the traveling public not wanting to fly then by government intervention.

You’re overlooking how the coronavirus pandemic is expected to play out. The industry will not “rebound” first with leisure traffic, then business and domestic followed by international. Leisure travelers may be packing onto the beaches in Florida and pool parties at the Lake of the Ozarks and WN may be helping getting them there. But as coronavirus hot spots develop and are *properly* reported, those overly confident leisure travelers will lose their sense of immortality.

We are not going to experience a methodical return to pre-COVID-19 traffic levels as you propose. This is not driven by the same factors as an economic recovery. The airline industry will not experience a V recovery or a swoosh recovery or a W recovery. It will be an ascent with a lot of turbulence.


That's what the LCCs and legacies have been saying. Just check the comments from AA in the most recent wolfe research presentation if you don't believe me.

Nobody is saying a V or even U shape recovery. But the flying that's coming back have been VFR first, followed by pure leisure. Corporate travel demand is still stuck at zero right now.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Tue May 26, 2020 11:53 am

Any airline manager making a prediction for the future is either very brave or very stupid. Nobody knows how much flying will be possible in fall, much less in winter. It depends factors not in the hands of the airline at all. You can have scenarios nothing more.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Tue May 26, 2020 12:47 pm

IrishAyes wrote:
So over the weekend I was able to get more context about the statement from the VP of flight ops and a lot of my initial suspicions were confirmed.

Quite frankly, it is really careless of this VP to make a statement like he did...


WN is not an agile company. No discussions of network opportunities that they can potentially “exploit “in the event/aftermath of one of their competitors suffering, will spare them from succumbing to similar fates. This statement from Leadership was really reckless, and frankly, it’s gonna bite him in the you know what.


This person may know flights ops but is unskilled in the (dark?) arts of corporate communications.

WN has some strengths. Labor productivity (RPMs per employee, revenue per employee) is good. There is faith in - and identification with - the brand. Two of their relative strengths have been margins and balance sheet. For a while, if they're prudent (and that means some furloughs) they'll have money where other carriers do not. They could opportunistically pick up slots, gate leases, and aircraft leases rejected by other carriers in Ch 11. If U.S. passenger demand X avg fare is still off 25% a year from now there will be Ch 11 filings by major U.S. carrier - one of DOT's ten tracked marketing carriers with at least 0.5% share. That could set up WN for a decade or two of growth in important markets when other carriers back out of leases in DEN/LAX/BOS/JFK/FLL etc.
 
jplatts
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Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Tue May 26, 2020 11:49 pm

EWRandMDW wrote:
I think WN made a huge mistake in pulling out of EWR. I flew MDW-EWR-MDW a number of times and the flights were always 3/4 or more full. That suggests to me that many other passengers decided LGA was not the right choice for them. Surely WN's management must realize that NJ is not NYC and doesn't necessarily want to be. That would be like calling Texas South Oklahoma. To me it'll be stupid to fly into LGA and then have to work my way back to NJ, often passing EWR, to get where I'm going.


Downtown Newark is closer to LGA than Downtown Fort Worth is to DAL or Downtown Washington, DC is to BWI. There are some travelers going to Downtown Washington, DC who fly into BWI on WN and some travelers going to Downtown Fort Worth who fly into DAL on WN, even with DCA being closer to Downtown Washington, DC and DFW being closer to Downtown Fort Worth.

LGA is close enough to cities along the NJ-Manhattan border such as Jersey City, Hoboken, Weehawken, Union City, West New York, Guttenberg, North Bergen, Fairview, Cliffside Park, Edgewater, Fort Lee, and Englewood Cliffs for LGA to be a viable option for those traveling to cities along the NJ-Manhattan border.

There are also some travelers going to and from the 5 NYC boroughs who do fly into EWR, even with LGA being closer to Manhattan, Brooklyn, Queens, and the Bronx than EWR.

I do agree that there are some travelers going to the NJ side of the NYC metro area who would prefer to fly into EWR instead of LGA or JFK, especially with some of the further out suburbs on the NJ side of the NYC metro area being more than 30 miles west from EWR.
 
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IrishAyes
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Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Wed May 27, 2020 1:15 am

KPDX wrote:
You can tell WN is doing the right thing by the sheer derangement people have towards the airline. Nuff said!


Feel free to think that way. Nobody has, "derangement" towards Southwest. I certainly don't - I had several amazing years working there and made connections with some fantastic, talented individuals who I would happily work among again. But "triggering" and "A vs. B" whatever was stated is, well, not relevant. For the record, you can't tell by an ANETTER's user name whether they hold stocks in a company, so maybe re-consider whether you think this is a personal thing? Because it's not....

What the rational people on this thread are saying, if I am interpreting it correctly, is that the VP's statement dangerously borders on the tip of brand arrogance + denial, or brazen complacency. Southwest may have metrics that on-paper, COMPARATIVELY to other carriers make them stand-out. However, the key figure here is that the playing field has not only been leveled in COVID-19, but the landscape has become essentially obliterated by a supply/demand shock that is down 90% YoY.

That's not good.

And recovery is nowhere in sight.

Southwest has successfully outmaneuvered a lot of trying times in the past and executed well on being nimble, bold, and leveraging their People to work together and pivot towards success. That was then. This is now. It is larger, slower, and arrogance about the Brand or its People will not save them from these demand and supply figures. Scott Kirby said on the Q1 earnings call for UA, "hope is not a strategy." Neither for them, nor any airline, for that matter. And He's usually right about this stuff. Gary Kelly is an incredible leader, but even his tone has become more grim with each week.

I just caution anyone who sees this as anti-WN sentiments to think a little more rationally, and big-picture about this, because otherwise it can lead to a really, really brutal awakening down the line.
 
Jetport
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Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Wed May 27, 2020 1:36 am

DarkSnowyNight wrote:
questions wrote:
tphuang wrote:
If legacies are still 20% smaller by end of 2022 and WN is larger than it was pre-COVID by then, they will automatically be gaining market share. It's really hard to argue that this downturn is not hitting legacies harder. Everyone is admitting that leisure is coming back before business travel and domestic is coming back before international.

It will be interesting for me to see what happens at DEN. I anticipate a huge battle there. If UA devotes a lot of resources to keep its market share at DEN against WN, that's less resources it will have in its other hubs.


Everyone? Everyone who? Who is admitting that?

You are forgetting the demand was first drastically reduced by the traveling public not wanting to fly then by government intervention.

You’re overlooking how the coronavirus pandemic is expected to play out. The industry will not “rebound” first with leisure traffic, then business and domestic followed by international. Leisure travelers may be packing onto the beaches in Florida and pool parties at the Lake of the Ozarks and WN may be helping getting them there. But as coronavirus hot spots develop and are *properly* reported, those overly confident leisure travelers will lose their sense of immortality.

We are not going to experience a methodical return to pre-COVID-19 traffic levels as you propose. This is not driven by the same factors as an economic recovery. The airline industry will not experience a V recovery or a swoosh recovery or a W recovery. It will be an ascent with a lot of turbulence.


I do not think you understand. No one is supposing Leisure traffic will bounce back to pre-Covid levels straight away; just that it will come back before business travel.

And even then, Leisure traffic will still not be what it was prior. What is for certain is that Business Travel is largely done-for. Outside of a few exceptional needs, companies that insist on remaining in that past will get slaughtered by their competition. This is even after Covid recovery, as several initially survival based paradigms will become norms.

I do agree that it will be a long time before even Leisure levels are back fully, if ever.

It does look as though WN are well positioned for this. And as for the rest of the Legacies, it is no surprise they are hit hardest. With the most expensive labor contracts and highest levels of encumbered debt, they have a lot of hustling to do if survival is really their plan...


WN will gain share. We are all seeing the wisdom of LUV's one aircraft business model in this downturn, something many complex fleet loving ANet folks downplay constantly. Many of WN's competitors can't simplify their fleets fast enough. Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery.

I totally disagree with you on business travel. Business travel will probably take a long time to return to 2019 levels, primarily because there was some unnecessary travel (boondoggles) in the past. But most business travel was needed. Sales visits, especially initial ones and annual reviews need to be in person. Are you going to spend millions of dollars with a new supplier you have never met?

I have now done several quarterly reviews on Skype and Teams and on the plus side they are shorter meetings, but they are also far less productive meetings. Most of my travel is for Technical Field Service, try that on Zoom or Teams and let me know how it goes.
 
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DarkSnowyNight
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Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Wed May 27, 2020 3:07 am

Jetport wrote:

WN will gain share. We are all seeing the wisdom of LUV's one aircraft business model in this downturn, something many complex fleet loving ANet folks downplay constantly. Many of WN's competitors can't simplify their fleets fast enough. Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery.


Certainly. But gaining share is not necessarily the same as gaining volume. They will absolutely be larger relative to DL, AA, UA, et al. But the actual ASMs will be smaller.

Jetport wrote:
I totally disagree with you on business travel. Business travel will probably take a long time to return to 2019 levels, primarily because there was some unnecessary travel (boondoggles) in the past. But most business travel was needed. Sales visits, especially initial ones and annual reviews need to be in person. Are you going to spend millions of dollars with a new supplier you have never met?


I certainly understand that people disagree. But that is very often the case where paradigm shifts are concerned. We need to remember that most, if not all, companies exist quarter by quarter. Suddenly reintroducing a cost they've been living without —with increasing comfort— is really a non-starter.

As for spending money on suppliers you have not met? That is not even new, and with things like E-signatures making extraordinary gains in acceptance, it was always only a matter of time before that replaced in-person meets. This is not even limited to long distance either. Transactions involving only city or county wide distances were already going that way too.

In my company's case, we have even purchased properties that way; properties that have only ever been visited by locally employed personnel too. I would have personally seen that as ridiculous as recently as five years ago. But it is happening.


Jetport wrote:
I have now done several quarterly reviews on Skype and Teams and on the plus side they are shorter meetings, but they are also far less productive meetings. Most of my travel is for Technical Field Service, try that on Zoom or Teams and let me know how it goes.


Have done. And very easily. And as for items requiring hands on for that, hiring locally and temporarily makes a lot more sense than utilizing roving personnel. In my experience, these things generally get easier, in terms of finding the most productive work-arounds as time goes by.

What a lot of travelers are not seeing here —likely and not unreasonably for reasons of personal interest— is that your employer really does not care about your concerns there. They will see that what ever "difficulties" people have with remote work are likely resulting more from user adaptation issues than anything structural to the system itself. What they do care about is the three to five times an average salary it costs to maintain an active traveling staff per capita.

There is already enough pressure to reduce those costs as it is. But when a company starts losing clients because they think clients value handshakes more than saving 20 -25% of a given cost, well, you see where this is going. FWIW, I do not see this as something caused by the current events so much as catalyzed by them. These advancements were inevitable.

And even with all that, there is still as much potential for productivity loss with in-person travel as well. That was fine in the past, but trying to justify that in the future will present a challenge.

I am certain there will still be an amount of business travel after this. After all, horses still remain in an age dominated by auto-traffic. But it will not be what it was.




As it pertains here, I do agree that apart from NK, WN is by far the best positioned to deal with these evolutions. Fleet simplicity helps, but the real story is a strongly flexible network and the fact that they have always balanced leisure vs business pretty well for just about every route they operate.
"Nous ne sommes pas infectés. Il n'y a pas d'infection ici..."
 
jplatts
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Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Wed May 27, 2020 3:40 am

EWRandMDW wrote:
I think WN made a huge mistake in pulling out of EWR. I flew MDW-EWR-MDW a number of times and the flights were always 3/4 or more full. That suggests to me that many other passengers decided LGA was not the right choice for them.


WN dropping EWR-MDW nonstop service wasn't the only mistake that WN made at MDW.

While WN doesn't currently serve RIC nonstop from MDW, WN should have added RIC-MDW nonstop service 7 years ago with RIC-CHI having higher PDEW's than OKC-CHI, TUS-CHI, ABQ-CHI, BHM-CHI, or ALB-CHI. WN would be able to offer 1-stop connecting service to RIC from at least 14 additional cities if WN adds RIC-MDW nonstop service, and WN has a FF base in the Chicago market to support RIC-MDW nonstop service.

In addition to dropping EWR-MDW nonstop service and not adding RIC-MDW nonstop service, WN had also discontinued BOI-MDW, GEG-MDW, GSP-MDW, and TUL-MDW nonstop service. WN can probably make BOI-MDW, GEG-MDW, GSP-MDW, and TUL-MDW nonstop service work on a summer seasonal basis as WN had previously been able to fill BOI-MDW, GEG-MDW, GSP-MDW, and TUL-MDW nonstop flights during the summertime in the past.

WN also dropped SNA-MDW nonstop service due to WN losing slots at SNA, but WN is likely to re-add SNA-MDW nonstop service once WN acquires more slots at SNA.

I had also mentioned WN adding ELP-MDW nonstop service as a possibility with ELP being one of the top destinations that WN doesn't currently serve nonstop from MDW and with WN having a FF base in both the Chicago and El Paso markets to support ELP-MDW nonstop service. WN would also be able to offer 1-stop connecting service from ELP to a few additional destinations that it doesn't serve nonstop from DEN, DAL, AUS, or HOU through MDW if it adds ELP-MDW nonstop service.
 
planecane
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Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Wed May 27, 2020 4:03 am

United1 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
hiflyeras wrote:
Great post. Anyone thinking that WN is going to escape the carnage coming in October is not paying attention. And even if they DO operate more departures in comparison to their competitors that just means they're operating more money-losing flights. Even at load factors of 60-70% no one would be making money unless the fares were outrageously expensive.


Every airline has said capping capacity is a very near-term solution, but even if it does get extended out, WN is the best positioned to compete in a low LF world.

Remember even though yield is down, Fuel/CapEX/Labor/Food is also down significantly, therefore WN could theoretically get fairly close to break even on their flights (at least compared to the US3)
Image


Yield is not just down it's utterly in the gutter...a few anecdotal points about that were even in this thread. A WN flyer was bragging about how he picked WN over UA on DAL-MDW because WNs fare was $90 roundtrip. The actual revenue to WN will be less if that fare includes taxes and fees but let's assume it's all revenue. That works out to 5.6 cents a mile. Do you think WN can generate a profit at that yield even flying 100% load factors?


I just flew FLL-MDW for $90 RT including taxes and fees. I'm pretty sure that's the cheapest RT I've flown in my adult life. I think the previous low was $98 RT FLL-TPA somewhere around 2003.

The flight to MDW had about 40 people on a 73G and the return was around 90 on a 738 (pretty close to the no middle seat capacity they are selling). No way those flights can be close to profitable.
 
Jetport
Posts: 143
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Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Wed May 27, 2020 4:59 am

DarkSnowyNight wrote:

Have done. And very easily. And as for items requiring hands on for that, hiring locally and temporarily makes a lot more sense than utilizing roving personnel. In my experience, these things generally get easier, in terms of finding the most productive work-arounds as time goes by.

What a lot of travelers are not seeing here —likely and not unreasonably for reasons of personal interest— is that your employer really does not care about your concerns there. They will see that what ever "difficulties" people have with remote work are likely resulting more from user adaptation issues than anything structural to the system itself. What they do care about is the three to five times an average salary it costs to maintain an active traveling staff per capita.

There is already enough pressure to reduce those costs as it is. But when a company starts losing clients because they think clients value handshakes more than saving 20 -25% of a given cost, well, you see where this is going. FWIW, I do not see this as something caused by the current events so much as catalyzed by them. These advancements were inevitable.

And even with all that, there is still as much potential for productivity loss with in-person travel as well. That was fine in the past, but trying to justify that in the future will present a challenge.

I am certain there will still be an amount of business travel after this. After all, horses still remain in an age dominated by auto-traffic. But it will not be what it was.


I guess we will agree to disagree on the need for travel. There is an issue that has been festering for 2 months for me that I am sure if I could have traveled to Europe from the US I could have solved it and already saved over $100k in claims.

As for your "three to five times an average salary it costs to maintain an active traveling staff per capita" figures all I can say is either the salaries are really low or the folks in this study must travel first class and stay at only the finest hotels. I have traveled from 50% - 75% for over 20 years and most years my travel costs are 30% to 40% of my salary. I think my highest year was about 50%. Even assuming my salary is far above average and I traveled 100%, I would really have to try hard to get to 3X to 5X an average salary in my industry with travel costs, though it would be fun trying.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2020

Thu May 28, 2020 1:09 pm

Southwest has extended its schedule through January 4th
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
joeblow10
Posts: 444
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2020

Thu May 28, 2020 1:23 pm

Looks like OKC-ATL has been added (beginning in Dec)

Edit: Also seeing DEN-BHM, DEN-ICT, DEN-LIT

Looks like the buildup of DEN is well underway...
Last edited by joeblow10 on Thu May 28, 2020 1:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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SteveXC500
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2020

Thu May 28, 2020 1:41 pm

MSP loses 5 flights/day when compared to the September 2020 schedule. Full loss of the OAK flight, -2 BWI, -1 MDW, -1 STL.
Will have 23 daily flights in Nov/Dec.
 
wnflyguy
Posts: 2013
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2020

Thu May 28, 2020 1:42 pm

LGB gets 3 PHX and 1 AUS.
SNA gets 1 BNA.


Flyguy
Last edited by wnflyguy on Thu May 28, 2020 2:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
My Wings are clipped just another Retired Airline person. The Ultimate Armchair out of the loop airline industry geek. Aloha Mr Hand!
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2020

Thu May 28, 2020 1:49 pm

OMA-ATL, BNA-SNA, & IND-STL
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
pmanni1
Posts: 251
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2020

Thu May 28, 2020 1:56 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
OMA-ATL, BNA-SNA, & IND-STL


IND-STL probably marks the end for Contour ever restarting this.
 
dbo861
Posts: 1051
Joined: Tue May 18, 2004 2:20 am

Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2020

Thu May 28, 2020 2:19 pm

DSM-DEN goes to two daily for at least the last few weeks of this schedule. DSM will be up to 5 daily flights on WN, the most we’ve ever had.

It seems like they added a full schedule. Are they expecting travel to fully rebound by the fall and operate with a full fleet?
 
Jshank83
Posts: 3573
Joined: Tue Nov 01, 2016 2:23 pm

Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2020

Thu May 28, 2020 2:40 pm

dbo861 wrote:

It seems like they added a full schedule. Are they expecting travel to fully rebound by the fall and operate with a full fleet?


Guessing they are treating things like they are treating the MAX. Add it all in then you can cut and consolidate as needed.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2020

Thu May 28, 2020 3:01 pm

pmanni1 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
OMA-ATL, BNA-SNA, & IND-STL


IND-STL probably marks the end for Contour ever restarting this.


Kind of funny that 3 airlines have started or announced this 200 mile route in the past few months, where was all this interest 2-3 years ago?
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
737max8
Posts: 642
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2020

Thu May 28, 2020 3:01 pm

LGB-AUS?

Definitely did not see that one coming.

All of the DEN/STL/BNA/ATL stuff makes sense.
The thoughts and opinions expressed in my comments do not represent that of any airline or affiliate.
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WaywardMemphian
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2020

Thu May 28, 2020 3:25 pm

I see MEM/PHX added, my MEM wishlist for WN is now MSY, STL, LAS, OAK, FLL, not in that order
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2020

Thu May 28, 2020 3:32 pm

https://www.swamedia.com/releases/relea ... jan-4-2021

"As Southwest looks toward the end of 2020, the carrier is adding a more robust schedule for business travelers with more frequencies and more nonstop flight options from Phoenix, Denver, Las Vegas, and Nashville.

"Never before has Southwest been more primed to emerge as the preferred choice of corporate travel as the business climate across America begins its recovery," Watterson added.

New for the Fall and Winter
As Southwest looks toward the end of 2020, the carrier is adding a more robust schedule for business travelers with more frequencies and more nonstop flight options from Phoenix, Denver, Las Vegas, and Nashville.

"Never before has Southwest been more primed to emerge as the preferred choice of corporate travel as the business climate across America begins its recovery," Watterson added.

More Reach from Long Beach
Effective Nov. 1, 2020, Southwest will add roundtrip service nonstop betweenLong Beach and Phoenix three times daily, as well as once daily nonstop service between Long Beach and Austin.

Music City to Orange County
Effective Nov. 2, 2020, Southwest will add new nonstop service once a day (except Sundays) between Nashvilleand Orange County/Santa Ana, Calif.

The carrier also will offer nonstop service between Ontario, Calif. and Houston (Hobby) once a day (except Saturdays), beginning Nov. 1, 2020.

New Routes for Atlanta and Denver Customers
Effective Dec. 17, 2020, Southwest will add several new nonstop links between cities across the nation:

Phoenix and Memphis, Tenn. – Once daily
Denver and Birmingham, Ala. – Once daily
Denver and Wichita, Kan. – Once daily
Denver and Little Rock, Ark. – Once daily
Atlanta and Oklahoma City – Three roundtrips daily, reestablishing nonstop service previously offered in 2016
Atlanta and Omaha, Neb. – Three roundtrips daily
Atlanta and Louisville, Ky. – Three roundtrips daily, reestablishing nonstop service previously offered in 2014
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Thu May 28, 2020 3:35 pm

So much for those saying WN isn't planning on being aggressive:

https://www.swamedia.com/releases/relea ... jan-4-2021

"Never before has Southwest been more primed to emerge as the preferred choice of corporate travel as the business climate across America begins its recovery"
"We're rounding out our plan for this unprecedented year with our business travelers in mind with a fourth quarter schedule that brings them new routes across the country. We're also offering more flights for all of our Customers in places such as Denver, Las Vegas, Nashville, and Phoenix"
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
tphuang
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2020

Thu May 28, 2020 3:41 pm

I'm curious to see how quickly they bring back ATL capacity. Are they going to try to challenge DL there? Quite curious what they are doing.

It's certainly not a surprise they are adding to DEN/PHX Seems like obvious places to take advantage of AA/UA weakness.
 
ericm2031
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2020

Thu May 28, 2020 3:45 pm

Looks like SNA-DAL/HOU are back on the schedule as well
 
dbo861
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2020

Thu May 28, 2020 4:00 pm

Maybe they see an opportunity now that DL retired their MD88/90 fleets and won't have excess aircraft to defend these routes. Starting these ATL routes with 3x daily is pretty bold.
 
Iggy500
Posts: 84
Joined: Sat Jul 06, 2019 6:40 pm

Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2020

Thu May 28, 2020 5:06 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
https://www.swamedia.com/releases/release-6574be9e1de1ccd6be82c574d7a8ce01-southwest-airlines-extends-published-flight-schedule-through-jan-4-2021

"As Southwest looks toward the end of 2020, the carrier is adding a more robust schedule for business travelers with more frequencies and more nonstop flight options from Phoenix, Denver, Las Vegas, and Nashville.

"Never before has Southwest been more primed to emerge as the preferred choice of corporate travel as the business climate across America begins its recovery," Watterson added.

New for the Fall and Winter
As Southwest looks toward the end of 2020, the carrier is adding a more robust schedule for business travelers with more frequencies and more nonstop flight options from Phoenix, Denver, Las Vegas, and Nashville.

"Never before has Southwest been more primed to emerge as the preferred choice of corporate travel as the business climate across America begins its recovery," Watterson added.

More Reach from Long Beach
Effective Nov. 1, 2020, Southwest will add roundtrip service nonstop betweenLong Beach and Phoenix three times daily, as well as once daily nonstop service between Long Beach and Austin.

Music City to Orange County
Effective Nov. 2, 2020, Southwest will add new nonstop service once a day (except Sundays) between Nashvilleand Orange County/Santa Ana, Calif.

The carrier also will offer nonstop service between Ontario, Calif. and Houston (Hobby) once a day (except Saturdays), beginning Nov. 1, 2020.

New Routes for Atlanta and Denver Customers
Effective Dec. 17, 2020, Southwest will add several new nonstop links between cities across the nation:

Phoenix and Memphis, Tenn. – Once daily
Denver and Birmingham, Ala. – Once daily
Denver and Wichita, Kan. – Once daily
Denver and Little Rock, Ark. – Once daily
Atlanta and Oklahoma City – Three roundtrips daily, reestablishing nonstop service previously offered in 2016
Atlanta and Omaha, Neb. – Three roundtrips daily
Atlanta and Louisville, Ky. – Three roundtrips daily, reestablishing nonstop service previously offered in 2014


Those are some routes I definitely did not see coming.

I think the reason why WN is starting LGB-AUS and LGB-PHX is because they are attempting to become the largest carrier at LGB. I could probably see AA leaving the market if WN does really well on LGB-PHX. As for LGB-AUS, WN is probably trying to force B6 to give up some slots at LGB.

As for the ATL routes, I believe that since DL is suffering from COVID-19, WN is trying to become a larger carrier in ATL as well.
 
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ADent
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2020

Thu May 28, 2020 5:11 pm

DEN-BHM will be nice.

Hope it can build to a couple of flights a day.
 
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STT757
Posts: 14147
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2020

Thu May 28, 2020 5:32 pm

Iggy500 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
https://www.swamedia.com/releases/release-6574be9e1de1ccd6be82c574d7a8ce01-southwest-airlines-extends-published-flight-schedule-through-jan-4-2021

"As Southwest looks toward the end of 2020, the carrier is adding a more robust schedule for business travelers with more frequencies and more nonstop flight options from Phoenix, Denver, Las Vegas, and Nashville.

"Never before has Southwest been more primed to emerge as the preferred choice of corporate travel as the business climate across America begins its recovery," Watterson added.

New for the Fall and Winter
As Southwest looks toward the end of 2020, the carrier is adding a more robust schedule for business travelers with more frequencies and more nonstop flight options from Phoenix, Denver, Las Vegas, and Nashville.

"Never before has Southwest been more primed to emerge as the preferred choice of corporate travel as the business climate across America begins its recovery," Watterson added.

More Reach from Long Beach
Effective Nov. 1, 2020, Southwest will add roundtrip service nonstop betweenLong Beach and Phoenix three times daily, as well as once daily nonstop service between Long Beach and Austin.

Music City to Orange County
Effective Nov. 2, 2020, Southwest will add new nonstop service once a day (except Sundays) between Nashvilleand Orange County/Santa Ana, Calif.

The carrier also will offer nonstop service between Ontario, Calif. and Houston (Hobby) once a day (except Saturdays), beginning Nov. 1, 2020.

New Routes for Atlanta and Denver Customers
Effective Dec. 17, 2020, Southwest will add several new nonstop links between cities across the nation:

Phoenix and Memphis, Tenn. – Once daily
Denver and Birmingham, Ala. – Once daily
Denver and Wichita, Kan. – Once daily
Denver and Little Rock, Ark. – Once daily
Atlanta and Oklahoma City – Three roundtrips daily, reestablishing nonstop service previously offered in 2016
Atlanta and Omaha, Neb. – Three roundtrips daily
Atlanta and Louisville, Ky. – Three roundtrips daily, reestablishing nonstop service previously offered in 2014


Those are some routes I definitely did not see coming.

I think the reason why WN is starting LGB-AUS and LGB-PHX is because they are attempting to become the largest carrier at LGB. I could probably see AA leaving the market if WN does really well on LGB-PHX. As for LGB-AUS, WN is probably trying to force B6 to give up some slots at LGB.

As for the ATL routes, I believe that since DL is suffering from COVID-19, WN is trying to become a larger carrier in ATL as well.


WM needs to be larger in ATL to hold their ground against DL. There has always been a place for a second large carrier at ATL, WN downsized too much.
Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
 
tphuang
Posts: 5354
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2020

Thu May 28, 2020 5:35 pm

Iggy500 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
https://www.swamedia.com/releases/release-6574be9e1de1ccd6be82c574d7a8ce01-southwest-airlines-extends-published-flight-schedule-through-jan-4-2021

"As Southwest looks toward the end of 2020, the carrier is adding a more robust schedule for business travelers with more frequencies and more nonstop flight options from Phoenix, Denver, Las Vegas, and Nashville.

"Never before has Southwest been more primed to emerge as the preferred choice of corporate travel as the business climate across America begins its recovery," Watterson added.

New for the Fall and Winter
As Southwest looks toward the end of 2020, the carrier is adding a more robust schedule for business travelers with more frequencies and more nonstop flight options from Phoenix, Denver, Las Vegas, and Nashville.

"Never before has Southwest been more primed to emerge as the preferred choice of corporate travel as the business climate across America begins its recovery," Watterson added.

More Reach from Long Beach
Effective Nov. 1, 2020, Southwest will add roundtrip service nonstop betweenLong Beach and Phoenix three times daily, as well as once daily nonstop service between Long Beach and Austin.

Music City to Orange County
Effective Nov. 2, 2020, Southwest will add new nonstop service once a day (except Sundays) between Nashvilleand Orange County/Santa Ana, Calif.

The carrier also will offer nonstop service between Ontario, Calif. and Houston (Hobby) once a day (except Saturdays), beginning Nov. 1, 2020.

New Routes for Atlanta and Denver Customers
Effective Dec. 17, 2020, Southwest will add several new nonstop links between cities across the nation:

Phoenix and Memphis, Tenn. – Once daily
Denver and Birmingham, Ala. – Once daily
Denver and Wichita, Kan. – Once daily
Denver and Little Rock, Ark. – Once daily
Atlanta and Oklahoma City – Three roundtrips daily, reestablishing nonstop service previously offered in 2016
Atlanta and Omaha, Neb. – Three roundtrips daily
Atlanta and Louisville, Ky. – Three roundtrips daily, reestablishing nonstop service previously offered in 2014


Those are some routes I definitely did not see coming.

I think the reason why WN is starting LGB-AUS and LGB-PHX is because they are attempting to become the largest carrier at LGB. I could probably see AA leaving the market if WN does really well on LGB-PHX. As for LGB-AUS, WN is probably trying to force B6 to give up some slots at LGB.

As for the ATL routes, I believe that since DL is suffering from COVID-19, WN is trying to become a larger carrier in ATL as well.


lol, forcing B6 to give up slots at LGB. B6 will gladly give up all of its slots at LGB now that LAX is open.
 
MDGLongBeach
Posts: 218
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 6:03 pm

Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2020

Thu May 28, 2020 6:30 pm

So, what's Southwest's plan for LGB again? Obviously these new additions (especially in light of COVID fallout) are a power play to run out AAL from LGB, as well as B6 to AUS... is Southwest trying to win the title of largest carrier at LGB so they "dominate" all SoCal airports or are they trying to establish a larger operation here that B6 once tried to do?
 
Nicknuzzii
Posts: 1249
Joined: Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:57 pm

Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2020

Thu May 28, 2020 6:52 pm

Now would be a great time for WN to become competitive in NYC. I know NK mentioned they would be willing to sell their LGA slots.
 
sprxUSA
Posts: 423
Joined: Thu Dec 02, 2004 5:17 am

Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2020

Thu May 28, 2020 7:14 pm

Here are the route cuts I found. Seems they don't like to talk about these. They are Mo through Fr flights, and were operating in this schedule's timeframe last year.
ATL-LAX/OAK/SAN
BOI-GEG
BOS-CMH/HOU
BUF-LAS
CHS-HOU
CLE-MKE
DEN-LBB
FLL-LAS/RDU
MDW-IND
PDX-BUR/ONT/LAX/SAN
RDU-LAS
SAN-ELP/MCO/OMA
SFO-ONT
SJC-BWI/SLC/TUS/ABQ
SLC-BWI
TPA-ALB/BDL/MHT
Gem State Airlines..."we have a gem of an airline"
 
Flflyer83
Posts: 88
Joined: Tue Apr 14, 2020 4:40 pm

Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2020

Thu May 28, 2020 7:19 pm

sprxUSA wrote:
Here are the route cuts I found. Seems they don't like to talk about these. They are Mo through Fr flights, and were operating in this schedule's timeframe last year.
ATL-LAX/OAK/SAN
BOI-GEG
BOS-CMH/HOU
BUF-LAS
CHS-HOU
CLE-MKE
DEN-LBB
FLL-LAS/RDU
MDW-IND
PDX-BUR/ONT/LAX/SAN
RDU-LAS
SAN-ELP/MCO/OMA
SFO-ONT
SJC-BWI/SLC/TUS/ABQ
SLC-BWI
TPA-ALB/BDL/MHT


How did you manage to access an old schedule from last year to compare?
 
BNAMealer
Posts: 935
Joined: Sat Jul 27, 2019 8:03 pm

Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2020

Thu May 28, 2020 7:28 pm

STT757 wrote:
WM needs to be larger in ATL to hold their ground against DL. There has always been a place for a second large carrier at ATL, WN downsized too much.


Why though? Even with the current crisis, eventually DL is going to come back stronger. Once things recover, they'll go back to losing money there. They have a much more viable airport up the road in BNA where they should be pouring resources into.
 
joeblow10
Posts: 444
Joined: Mon Jun 04, 2018 11:58 pm

Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2020

Thu May 28, 2020 7:36 pm

sprxUSA wrote:
Here are the route cuts I found. Seems they don't like to talk about these. They are Mo through Fr flights, and were operating in this schedule's timeframe last year.
ATL-LAX/OAK/SAN
BOI-GEG
BOS-CMH/HOU
BUF-LAS
CHS-HOU
CLE-MKE
DEN-LBB
FLL-LAS/RDU
MDW-IND
PDX-BUR/ONT/LAX/SAN
RDU-LAS
SAN-ELP/MCO/OMA
SFO-ONT
SJC-BWI/SLC/TUS/ABQ
SLC-BWI
TPA-ALB/BDL/MHT


I had to see it on their website to believe it. A few that stand out in particular:

ATL-LAX/OAK: OAK a little less shocking than LAX, but they cannot make ATL-LAX work? Also pretty much eliminates Hawaii connectivity from ATL

BUF-LAS: this one is really hard to believe. With all the Canadian vacation traffic, they can’t make it work? Are they betting it won’t return this winter due to COVID? Seems odd given their other additions and ambitions...

PDX: Talk about ceding to AS on the West Coast flights. Obviously WN is much stronger in CA than PDX or SEA but still
 
WN732
Posts: 821
Joined: Sat Feb 26, 2011 12:49 am

Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2020

Thu May 28, 2020 7:47 pm

joeblow10 wrote:
sprxUSA wrote:
Here are the route cuts I found. Seems they don't like to talk about these. They are Mo through Fr flights, and were operating in this schedule's timeframe last year.
ATL-LAX/OAK/SAN
BOI-GEG
BOS-CMH/HOU
BUF-LAS
CHS-HOU
CLE-MKE
DEN-LBB
FLL-LAS/RDU
MDW-IND
PDX-BUR/ONT/LAX/SAN
RDU-LAS
SAN-ELP/MCO/OMA
SFO-ONT
SJC-BWI/SLC/TUS/ABQ
SLC-BWI
TPA-ALB/BDL/MHT


I had to see it on their website to believe it. A few that stand out in particular:

ATL-LAX/OAK: OAK a little less shocking than LAX, but they cannot make ATL-LAX work? Also pretty much eliminates Hawaii connectivity from ATL

BUF-LAS: this one is really hard to believe. With all the Canadian vacation traffic, they can’t make it work? Are they betting it won’t return this winter due to COVID? Seems odd given their other additions and ambitions...

PDX: Talk about ceding to AS on the West Coast flights. Obviously WN is much stronger in CA than PDX or SEA but still


Honestly, I see PDX being put aside for a different day. It looks like they are working to lay off the PNW right now but entrenching their already dominant position in SoCal. After travel starts to go up again I would imagine that they might be willing to duke it out with AS again.

AS is in a good position to fight. But as you can see they are going after some low hanging AA, UA, DL, and B6 routes. It would probably be easier to steal pax from them than it would be against AS.
 
phllax
Posts: 612
Joined: Wed Jan 11, 2006 6:53 am

Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2020

Thu May 28, 2020 7:59 pm

737max8 wrote:
LGB-AUS?

Definitely did not see that one coming.

All of the DEN/STL/BNA/ATL stuff makes sense.



That is purely speculation that B6 will be gone from LGB by that time. This is one of those flights that have remained throughout all the cuts and does well for them.
 
incitatus
Posts: 3380
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 1:49 am

Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Thu May 28, 2020 8:22 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
So much for those saying WN isn't planning on being aggressive:

https://www.swamedia.com/releases/relea ... jan-4-2021

"Never before has Southwest been more primed to emerge as the preferred choice of corporate travel as the business climate across America begins its recovery"
"We're rounding out our plan for this unprecedented year with our business travelers in mind with a fourth quarter schedule that brings them new routes across the country. We're also offering more flights for all of our Customers in places such as Denver, Las Vegas, Nashville, and Phoenix"


Not sure. They have relative financial strength. But Southwest's limitations and it success as a simpler/profitable business are closely related. Compared to other airlines, Southwest's offering lacks some attractive features. For flights that are longer than 3 hours, their seats are quite uncomfortable. In these longer markets they often lack frequency to compete with DL/UA/AA. First class and seat assignments are also more important for longer flights. Then there is its network limitations. Their presence abroad is small, and they do not have small aircraft to serve smaller markets. The inability to offer red-eyes is a small handicap (Try HNL-HOU on Southwest).

Then there is how COVID will impact Southwest. A significant portion of Southwest's strength is derived from short-haul markets (e.g., intra-Texas & intra-California) in which driving is a real alternative. If people keep on avoiding air travel to lessen their exposure, shorter haul markets will be more impacted because of the substitute.

Let's not forget: History does not repeat itself. Southwest is used to winning and many that already posted here see a sense of invincibility. Confidence on past success may lead to Southwest missing the target in the future. The present is unlike anything Southwest has seen before.
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