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Oregon Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Dec 31, 2019 3:50 pm

Welcome to Oregon Aviation Thread - 2020. Please continue to add your comments below

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DeltaPSCFlyer
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Re: Oregon Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Jan 01, 2020 1:12 am

Happy New Year and decade, fellow Oregon Aviation fans!

I think it will be a good year for Oregon aviation, highlighted by:
- BA coming to PDX in June, starting year-round service to LHR; first regularly scheduled 787 service to PDX
- DL upgrading to daily service year round to HND with the A332, starting in late March, replacing the older 763.
- DL upgrading (slightly) to its refurbished __-class 764 for the daily seasonal LHR flight, which starts 3 weeks earlier in 2020
- New WN gates on the extended E concourse at PDX, allowing for a smoother operation on the B/C gates with less congestion.
- PSC-ORD on UA starting in June (I know this airport is in WA, but it is the primary airport that serves most of north central/Eastern Oregon

What else might we see this year?
- Additional expansion at EUG, MFR, and RDM?
- New routes?
- New airlines (domestic & intl.)
- Discontinued routes (hopefully not...)

My predictions:
- DL extends PDX-LHR year round, with 5x service in the off-peak season to match BA
- PDX finally surpasses the 20 million mark
- AS adds frequencies and markets to PDX, to help offset the SEA mess and to also support the new BA route
- Condor announces it is discontinuing service to PDX after the Summer '20 season. (This will depend on its overall financial health and ability to survive overall)
- Dark horse prediction: an announcement is made later in the year that an existing slot to ICN has been freed up that will allow the start PDX-ICN in 2021. (DL or KE)

All the best to each of you in 2020!
DeltaPSCFlyer
 
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Re: Oregon Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Jan 01, 2020 2:13 am

My predictions
-JAL announces PDX-NRT. Would do so well with AS partnership(like BA).
-DL announces PDX-CDG/ICN. DL ends PDX-LHR. (There were rumours flying that delta is going to open another sky club at PDX at the very far end of D to coincide with these new flights).
-DL adds more PDX flights to feed its international offering (maybe CVG, SAN, SJC, SFO, BOI, ANC).
-AA adds PDX-MIA
-AS adds year round DEN, PHL, ATL, IAH, MSY
-AM returns to PDX-MEX market (quite a large market and no current nonstop, maybe when the MAX situation is figured out).
 
jplatts
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Re: Oregon Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Jan 01, 2020 2:34 am

DeltaPSCFlyer wrote:
I think it will be a good year for Oregon aviation, highlighted by:
- New WN gates on the extended E concourse at PDX, allowing for a smoother operation on the B/C gates with less congestion.

What else might we see this year?
- New routes?


WN adding PDX-ATL nonstop service is a possibility since (a) PDX is the largest WN station outside of California that doesn't currently have nonstop service to ATL on WN, (b) AS no longer serves ATL nonstop from PDX, (c) DL is currently the only airline serving ATL nonstop from PDX, and (d) WN would be able to offer 1-stop connections to a few additional destinations such as GSP, RIC, and PBI from PDX through ATL if it adds PDX-ATL nonstop service.

Even though AS dropped PDX-ATL nonstop service, WN might be able to make PDX-ATL nonstop service work due to connecting feed from East Coast destinations that aren't served by AS, WN still having a focus city at ATL, and WN having a FF base in ATL and other East Coast markets in addition to PDX to support PDX-ATL nonstop service.

In addition to adding PDX-ATL, WN could also extend PDX-BWI and PDX-HOU to year-round, daily nonstop service.

WN re-adding PDX-AUS nonstop service is also a possibility with PDX being one of the top tech destinations that WN doesn't currently serve nonstop from AUS.

DL re-adding PDX-CVG nonstop service is a possibility with CVG being one of the top destinations without nonstop service out of PDX and with DL being able to use an A220-100 on the PDX-CVG route.

In addition to the return of PDX-CVG nonstop service, DL adding PDX-BOS nonstop service is also a possibility to better compete against B6 and AS on the PDX-BOS route. DL would also be able to offer connections to a few European destinations from PDX through BOS if it adds PDX-BOS nonstop service.

DeltaPSCFlyer wrote:
My predictions:
- AS adds frequencies and markets to PDX, to help offset the SEA mess and to also support the new BA route


AS adding PDX-FLL, PDX-IND, PDX-MSY, PDX-OKC, PDX-RDU, and PDX-TPA nonstop service are possibilities with FLL, IND, MSY, OKC, RDU, and TPA being top destinations that aren't currently served nonstop from PDX on any airline.

AS adding PDX-CLE nonstop service is also a possibility if AS adds service to CLE with F9 no longer serving CLE nonstop from PDX and with CLE being one of the top destinations without nonstop service to PDX on any airline.
 
AS737MAX
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Re: Oregon Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Jan 01, 2020 6:10 am

jplatts wrote:
DeltaPSCFlyer wrote:
I think it will be a good year for Oregon aviation, highlighted by:
- New WN gates on the extended E concourse at PDX, allowing for a smoother operation on the B/C gates with less congestion.

What else might we see this year?
- New routes?


WN adding PDX-ATL nonstop service is a possibility since (a) PDX is the largest WN station outside of California that doesn't currently have nonstop service to ATL on WN, (b) AS no longer serves ATL nonstop from PDX, (c) DL is currently the only airline serving ATL nonstop from PDX, and (d) WN would be able to offer 1-stop connections to a few additional destinations such as GSP, RIC, and PBI from PDX through ATL if it adds PDX-ATL nonstop service.

Even though AS dropped PDX-ATL nonstop service, WN might be able to make PDX-ATL nonstop service work due to connecting feed from East Coast destinations that aren't served by AS, WN still having a focus city at ATL, and WN having a FF base in ATL and other East Coast markets in addition to PDX to support PDX-ATL nonstop service.


WN adding Saturday summer BNA is certainly a great step in the right direction.

I mentioned it in the AS network thread, and it's not earth-shattering news by any means, but PDX-MSP is now being operated by Horizon instead of SkyWest. Must be the longest QX route ever, although the Horizon of 2020 is far different than the Horizon of 2010.
 
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Re: Oregon Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Jan 01, 2020 6:56 am

AS737MAX wrote:
I mentioned it in the AS network thread, and it's not earth-shattering news by any means, but PDX-MSP is now being operated by Horizon instead of SkyWest. Must be the longest QX route ever, although the Horizon of 2020 is far different than the Horizon of 2010.

Pardon my ignorance but what exactly are the benefits these days of a QX EMJ flying a route as opposed to OO flying one of their EMJs on the same route? I'm seriously curious why there is a difference; it appears that you consider it some sort of upgrade to see QX flying the same a/c as OO. There seem to be lots of both flying the AAG network and I didn't think it mattered which one a passenger ends up flying.

Happy New Year everyone and I wish 2020 to be a great year for beautiful PDX!

bb
 
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Re: Oregon Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Jan 01, 2020 7:00 am

SANFan wrote:
AS737MAX wrote:
I mentioned it in the AS network thread, and it's not earth-shattering news by any means, but PDX-MSP is now being operated by Horizon instead of SkyWest. Must be the longest QX route ever, although the Horizon of 2020 is far different than the Horizon of 2010.

Pardon my ignorance but what exactly are the benefits these days of a QX EMJ flying a route as opposed to OO flying one of their EMJs on the same route? I'm seriously curious why there is a difference; it appears that you consider it some sort of upgrade to see QX flying the same a/c as OO. There seem to be lots of both flying the AAG network and I didn't think it mattered which one a passenger ends up flying.

Happy New Year everyone and I wish 2020 to be a great year for beautiful PDX!

bb


There is no obvious difference, but most of the longer E175 routes had always been OO. QX operating it shows some shift in network planning.
 
jbpdx
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Re: Oregon Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Jan 01, 2020 11:21 am

I flew Alaska/Horizon E175 PDX-MCI less than two years ago.
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Re: Oregon Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Jan 01, 2020 11:45 am

My predictions for 2020:
Alaska doesn’t go PDX-BWI year round, adds nothing.
American doesn’t make PDX-PHL year round.
American doesn’t add PDX-MIA.
JetBlue doesn’t add PDX-FLL.
Spirit, Frontier continue to back-burner Portland.
Delta adds PDX-MIA, PDX-BOS.
Condor survives.
DL and BA coexist on PDX-LHR.
Sun Country adds when/where they can.
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Re: Oregon Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Jan 01, 2020 1:11 pm

jbpdx wrote:
I flew Alaska/Horizon E175 PDX-MCI less than two years ago.


That is the longest Horizon route at present, however.
 
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Re: Oregon Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Jan 01, 2020 2:15 pm

PHXWRLD wrote:
jbpdx wrote:
I flew Alaska/Horizon E175 PDX-MCI less than two years ago.


That is the longest Horizon route at present, however.


QX will be operating PDX-DAL at 7 am & PDX-OMA this summer.
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Re: Oregon Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Jan 01, 2020 5:20 pm

jbpdx wrote:
My predictions for 2020:
Alaska doesn’t go PDX-BWI year round, adds nothing.
American doesn’t make PDX-PHL year round.
American doesn’t add PDX-MIA.
JetBlue doesn’t add PDX-FLL.
Spirit, Frontier continue to back-burner Portland.
Delta adds PDX-MIA, PDX-BOS.
Condor survives.
DL and BA coexist on PDX-LHR.
Sun Country adds when/where they can.


Thanks for your continued optimism....
 
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Re: Oregon Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Jan 01, 2020 10:04 pm

RWA380 wrote:
PHXWRLD wrote:
jbpdx wrote:
I flew Alaska/Horizon E175 PDX-MCI less than two years ago.


That is the longest Horizon route at present, however.


QX will be operating PDX-DAL at 7 am & PDX-OMA this summer.


I stand corrected!
 
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Re: Oregon Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 02, 2020 12:28 am

AS737MAX wrote:
RWA380 wrote:
PHXWRLD wrote:

That is the longest Horizon route at present, however.


QX will be operating PDX-DAL at 7 am & PDX-OMA this summer.


I stand corrected!


QX is also running the only RJ's on AAG's SEA-DAL, x 2 daily next summer, looks like OO is out on this route, the other 2 are AS Airbus mainline. Lots of cities that saw E-175's in the past are now up-gauged to Airbus mainline, makes it easier to see how they were able to add heavily at RDM & up-gauge some MT cities to mainline Airbus also, but also swapping out Q-400's for E-175's & adding CA n/s from MT. I believe the Airbus is showing it's role in the fleet. With their minimal galley space they are perfect to serve the 4- hour routes.
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Re: Oregon Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 02, 2020 2:50 am

DeltaPSCFlyer wrote:

What else might we see this year?
- Additional expansion at EUG, MFR, and RDM?
- New routes?
- New airlines (domestic & intl.)
- Discontinued routes (hopefully not...)r


I've been clamoring for ORD-MFR for a couple years; would love to UA try it, or AA. If UA can make RDM work, seems to me MFR should be capable since it has a bigger metro population. There's also a lot of industry in/around Medford (esp White City), and this is a high growth area with lots of California transplants. Tons of new vineyards popping up, etc.
 
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Re: Oregon Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 02, 2020 7:25 am

ANA787 wrote:
My predictions
-AS adds year round DEN, PHL, ATL, IAH


AS has already said they aren’t even bringing back seasonal PHL service, so it is highly unlikely they are considering it year round,
 
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Re: Oregon Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 02, 2020 10:32 am

pdxav8r wrote:
ANA787 wrote:
My predictions
-AS adds year round DEN, PHL, ATL, IAH


AS has already said they aren’t even bringing back seasonal PHL service, so it is highly unlikely they are considering it year round,


DEN definitely seems likely though.
 
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Re: Oregon Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Jan 04, 2020 8:08 pm

Happy New Year! So this year's 2020 predictions. I will see what I can find out but my guesses are...

DL's PDX- LHR, Stays status quo this year then goes year round limited. I have seen the numbers, London before BA announcement was still the number 1 market underserved.
Amsterdam flight stays as is.
Haneda flight stays as is.
CDG - NOPE, will cannibalize Amsterdam.

Asia is the next one I guess. Haneda will be stable as current NRT was with O&D. I guess a chance DL or partner to Korea, or a Japanese airline to NRT. There is a need for feed to Asia. Asian is the fastest growing population in Oregon.

Airlines will fine tune for connections.

Domestic adds, I think limited. Miami possibly the biggest news of 2020, but AA is being stubborn with PDX. Also I could see Jet Blue dumping PDX and either AA picking up JFK or DL adding.

Also at some point WN going to Alaska.
 
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Re: Oregon Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Jan 04, 2020 8:29 pm

PDXPOL wrote:
Happy New Year! So this year's 2020 predictions. I will see what I can find out but my guesses are...

DL's PDX- LHR, Stays status quo this year then goes year round limited. I have seen the numbers, London before BA announcement was still the number 1 market underserved.
Amsterdam flight stays as is.
Haneda flight stays as is.
CDG - NOPE, will cannibalize Amsterdam.

Asia is the next one I guess. Haneda will be stable as current NRT was with O&D. I guess a chance DL or partner to Korea, or a Japanese airline to NRT. There is a need for feed to Asia. Asian is the fastest growing population in Oregon.

Airlines will fine tune for connections.

Domestic adds, I think limited. Miami possibly the biggest news of 2020, but AA is being stubborn with PDX. Also I could see Jet Blue dumping PDX and either AA picking up JFK or DL adding.

Also at some point WN going to Alaska.


All of your predictions make sense to me. I smile and cringe at the same time when I see mention of PDX-CDG.

Domestically, and with the DL 20% stake in LATAM, I think we'll see DL add PDX-MIA, which would provide feed the HND flight, but also the other way to DL's expanded network to Latin America. Also, I think DL will make other domestic adds as well, notably CVG with an A220, and then also BOS, MSY, and BNA. Not sure what AA or B6's strategy is for PDX anymore. With WN moving to their new gates, and presumably the MAX coming back, they will look to strengthen their position in PDX, and apply pressure to F9, B6, and Spirit.

For Asia, rather than ICN, a dark-horse add might be to the new airport in Beijing on DL.
 
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Re: Oregon Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Jan 04, 2020 9:10 pm

pdxav8r wrote:
ANA787 wrote:
My predictions
-AS adds year round DEN, PHL, ATL, IAH


AS has already said they aren’t even bringing back seasonal PHL service, so it is highly unlikely they are considering it year round,


Agreed, flight full, but yields low. Same with ATL. IAH has more than enough service from Stumptown. Even though it's bringing another carrier into the mix, PDX-DEN is one of the biggest holes in their network out of the Rose City.

PDXPOL wrote:
Happy New Year! So this year's 2020 predictions. I will see what I can find out but my guesses are...

DL's PDX- LHR, Stays status quo this year then goes year round limited. I have seen the numbers, London before BA announcement was still the number 1 market underserved.
Amsterdam flight stays as is.
Haneda flight stays as is.
CDG - NOPE, will cannibalize Amsterdam.

Asia is the next one I guess. Haneda will be stable as current NRT was with O&D. I guess a chance DL or partner to Korea, or a Japanese airline to NRT. There is a need for feed to Asia. Asian is the fastest growing population in Oregon.

Airlines will fine tune for connections.

Domestic adds, I think limited. Miami possibly the biggest news of 2020, but AA is being stubborn with PDX. Also I could see Jet Blue dumping PDX and either AA picking up JFK or DL adding.

Also at some point WN going to Alaska.


Happy New Year POL, I must agree with what you've stated for the most part. Delta doesn't need to flinch, even with BA announced. I believe ZG (Zipair) will announce NRT-PDX next year, bringing JL brand to PDX, albeit the LCC way. I think DL will be just fine to HND & unless we see a big global recession (how we won't is more the question), a TYO flight will always do well enough to remain.

I'd like to see a KE 787-8/9 on ICN-PDX, KE says it's not possible because of slots, I think it is, if they are willing to juggle things a bit there. I think HU will announce PEK-PDX before DL, my own two cents. As for domestic, AA has not shown love to PDX since they started flying here in the early 80's. PDX was nothing but a tag off of SEA flights, with a n/s to DFW, all 727 or 72S.

PDX & SEA were one of the first few cities to get the MD-80 when AA started taking delivery of them. I can remember flying AA EUG-PDX-EUG from U of O, for holidays & long weekends at $20 each way, it was affordable as the bus, almost. I just can not see AA adding MIA to PDX. I'd bet AS to FLL or SY.

But B6 will drop LGB in time & we will have a single BOS & JFK flight, but I doubt they'd drop PDX totally. Plus they need to stop someplace enroute to ANC in the summer, right? Happy 2020 POL.
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Re: Oregon Aviation Thread - 2020

Sat Jan 04, 2020 11:34 pm

Oops, I completely forgot to put my 2 cents worth on Condor, that's the big ?

Condor does very well at PDX. High loads and decent cargo. From what I read Condor is profitable, but some liabilities are tied up with Thomas Cook. I think the German government helps with some of their laws.

My guess is they do have to sell. Will new owners keep the same routes. One would think so, as they make money. Could LH buy them, sure, do they want to. I know LH requested a meeting a couple years back with the Port of Portland at an airline conference, again LH requested this. If Condor shutters or stops service, I see LH starting seasonal.
 
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Re: Oregon Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Jan 05, 2020 12:04 am

Alaska’s PDX-PVR and PDX-SJD go daily this week, for the first time. I’ll be on board Thursday.
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Re: Oregon Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Jan 05, 2020 1:47 am

jbpdx wrote:
Alaska’s PDX-PVR and PDX-SJD go daily this week, for the first time. I’ll be on board Thursday.


Saw the two AS flights to both destinations today, and thought one must have been a Saturday only special flight. Didn’t hear they were both going daily, so that is cool. Thanks for the info.

Agree with POL and RW on most observations. Only disagreement, would be that DL could start BOS, MSY or BNA. Think AS would pick them up first (probably looking at how SY is doing on BNA) and unless DL has further gate issues, don’t see them cannibalizing SEA. BOS on DL? Dont see it, when there are 4 daily in the high season already on B6 and AS, and more European connections can be done through JFK anyway.

AS just doesn’t have any interest in PDX-DEN. You would think if they thought they would succeed, they would have done it long ago.

AA in PDX is not too much of a mystery. MIA, maybe, but they don’t serve JFK either. Must not be enough Latin American connections needed through MIA. They can get you anywhere in the SE via DFW or CLT, and even most Latin American destinations. Wouldn’t expect JFK either, as the high season has 3 EWR, and 5 JFK flights already on AS, UA, DL and B6. 8 nonstops to NYC has held strong for the better part of 4 years in the high season. Still don’t do PHL year round, but will corner the market in the summer, as the only carrier going nonstop. AS flinched, or ceded it. Can AS codeshare, or not because PHL is an AA hub?

On DL, maybe CVG timed for HND. Their upcoming LAS flights are supposedly timed for that connection. PDX will also collect the late stragglers, being the last west coast flight out to HND, but don’t see DL really adding anything else, unless they opt for ICN at some point.

Will be intriguing to see if WN dares to enter the Hawaiian market from PDX once the MAX comes online. Don’t think WN can push AS off the Hawaiian markets from PDX, like they have to a degree in SMF, SJC, and OAK, as those are WN strongholds. You do see HA up gauge the HNL flight on many occasions, so maybe there are seats to sell. Depends on if SY is making a dent, and filling seats.

UA has been stagnant at PDX for years, nothing going on there, which leads one to think NH wouldn’t be the carrier to start NRT. ZIP would be my guess, with the AS connection, if they have the same agreement that parent company JL does with AS.

Hopefully PDX finally gets to 20M passengers in 2020.
 
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Re: Oregon Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Jan 05, 2020 7:25 pm

Happy New Year POL, I must agree with what you've stated for the most part. Delta doesn't need to flinch, even with BA announced. I believe ZG (Zipair) will announce NRT-PDX next year, bringing JL brand to PDX, albeit the LCC way. I think DL will be just fine to HND & unless we see a big global recession (how we won't is more the question), a TYO flight will always do well enough to remain.

I'd like to see a KE 787-8/9 on ICN-PDX, KE says it's not possible because of slots, I think it is, if they are willing to juggle things a bit there. I think HU will announce PEK-PDX before DL, my own two cents. As for domestic, AA has not shown love to PDX since they started flying here in the early 80's. PDX was nothing but a tag off of SEA flights, with a n/s to DFW, all 727 or 72S.


Interestingly, on the OAG guide that enilria posted this morning, it shows HU cancelling LAS-PEK service. So maybe that 787 will be redeployed on PDX-PEK?
 
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Re: Oregon Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Jan 05, 2020 7:33 pm

DeltaPSCFlyer wrote:
Happy New Year POL, I must agree with what you've stated for the most part. Delta doesn't need to flinch, even with BA announced. I believe ZG (Zipair) will announce NRT-PDX next year, bringing JL brand to PDX, albeit the LCC way. I think DL will be just fine to HND & unless we see a big global recession (how we won't is more the question), a TYO flight will always do well enough to remain.

I'd like to see a KE 787-8/9 on ICN-PDX, KE says it's not possible because of slots, I think it is, if they are willing to juggle things a bit there. I think HU will announce PEK-PDX before DL, my own two cents. As for domestic, AA has not shown love to PDX since they started flying here in the early 80's. PDX was nothing but a tag off of SEA flights, with a n/s to DFW, all 727 or 72S.


Interestingly, on the OAG guide that enilria posted this morning, it shows HU cancelling LAS-PEK service. So maybe that 787 will be redeployed on PDX-PEK?

If that were the case HU would at least have feed on both sides unlike at LAS (AS at PDX, HU at PEK). If I remember correctly HU must use its US traffic rights so maybe there is a forthcoming announcement.
 
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Re: Oregon Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Jan 05, 2020 9:31 pm

ANA787 wrote:
DeltaPSCFlyer wrote:
Happy New Year POL, I must agree with what you've stated for the most part. Delta doesn't need to flinch, even with BA announced. I believe ZG (Zipair) will announce NRT-PDX next year, bringing JL brand to PDX, albeit the LCC way. I think DL will be just fine to HND & unless we see a big global recession (how we won't is more the question), a TYO flight will always do well enough to remain.

I'd like to see a KE 787-8/9 on ICN-PDX, KE says it's not possible because of slots, I think it is, if they are willing to juggle things a bit there. I think HU will announce PEK-PDX before DL, my own two cents. As for domestic, AA has not shown love to PDX since they started flying here in the early 80's. PDX was nothing but a tag off of SEA flights, with a n/s to DFW, all 727 or 72S.


Interestingly, on the OAG guide that enilria posted this morning, it shows HU cancelling LAS-PEK service. So maybe that 787 will be redeployed on PDX-PEK?

If that were the case HU would at least have feed on both sides unlike at LAS (AS at PDX, HU at PEK). If I remember correctly HU must use its US traffic rights so maybe there is a forthcoming announcement.


That would be a 'surprise' announcement! But PDX is probably due for a mainland China flight anyway. Let's hope this comes to fruition.
Next Flight:
PDX-SEA-PHX-LAX-PDX on DL
 
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Re: Oregon Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Jan 05, 2020 10:25 pm

1/5 OAG: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1438419

UA IAH-PDX APR 3>2[3]
 
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Re: Oregon Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Jan 05, 2020 11:09 pm

pdxav8r wrote:
On DL, maybe CVG timed for HND. Their upcoming LAS flights are supposedly timed for that connection. PDX will also collect the late stragglers, being the last west coast flight out to HND, but don’t see DL really adding anything else, unless they opt for ICN at some point.


I agree that DL re-adding PDX-CVG nonstop service is a possibility as DL could operate the A220 on the PDX-CVG nonstop route.

I also agree that DL offering connections onto its PDX-HND nonstop flights from CVG is a possibility if DL re-adds PDX-CVG nonstop service, even though DL already offers 1-stop connecting service to TYO from CVG through its ATL, DTW, and MSP hubs.

DL would also be able to offer connections to some East Coast destinations such as BOS, LGA, PHL, BWI, DCA, CLT, RDU, MCO, TPA, and FLL from PDX through CVG if DL re-adds PDX-CVG nonstop service.

DL can probably fill an A220-100 on PDX-CVG with connections available on both the PDX and CVG ends of the route. PDX is one of the top destinations that doesn't currently have any nonstop service out of CVG.
 
zonks
Posts: 162
Joined: Mon Nov 24, 2003 5:24 pm

Re: Oregon Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 6:20 pm

I disagree on the prospect of HU coming to PDX. Their parent company is in serious financial trouble and with the ongoing trade war and other frictions with China, I don't see it happening in 2020.
 
jbpdx
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Joined: Tue Aug 18, 2015 6:37 pm

Re: Oregon Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 7:49 pm

zonks wrote:
I disagree on the prospect of HU coming to PDX. Their parent company is in serious financial trouble and with the ongoing trade war and other frictions with China, I don't see it happening in 2020.


Portland now has more visitors from China than Japan so something will eventually happen.

Spirit is down to only two flights a day (LAS) at PDX.
trump is a liar, a sociopath and a traitor
 
midway7
Posts: 275
Joined: Fri Aug 06, 2004 10:24 pm

Re: Oregon Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 8:45 pm

Some really cool runway 21 action this morning. They are using it for about everything, arrivals and departures. Got to see a DL 767 land on 21 around 11:00AM. Seems like they are sticking with using it today if anyone wants to go out on Marine Dr. and spot a bit.
 
jbpdx
Posts: 863
Joined: Tue Aug 18, 2015 6:37 pm

Re: Oregon Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 9:06 pm

midway7 wrote:
Some really cool runway 21 action this morning. They are using it for about everything, arrivals and departures. Got to see a DL 767 land on 21 around 11:00AM. Seems like they are sticking with using it today if anyone wants to go out on Marine Dr. and spot a bit.


Strong south wind today, S 24 G 32.
trump is a liar, a sociopath and a traitor
 
jbpdx
Posts: 863
Joined: Tue Aug 18, 2015 6:37 pm

Re: Oregon Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 9:34 pm

Delta is using 763 on one of the PDX-ATL flights.
trump is a liar, a sociopath and a traitor
 
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bigfoot0503
Posts: 428
Joined: Wed Mar 08, 2006 5:17 pm

Re: Oregon Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 9:37 pm

DeltaPSCFlyer wrote:
PDXPOL wrote:
Happy New Year! So this year's 2020 predictions. I will see what I can find out but my guesses are...

DL's PDX- LHR, Stays status quo this year then goes year round limited. I have seen the numbers, London before BA announcement was still the number 1 market underserved.
Amsterdam flight stays as is.
Haneda flight stays as is.
CDG - NOPE, will cannibalize Amsterdam.

Asia is the next one I guess. Haneda will be stable as current NRT was with O&D. I guess a chance DL or partner to Korea, or a Japanese airline to NRT. There is a need for feed to Asia. Asian is the fastest growing population in Oregon.

Airlines will fine tune for connections.

Domestic adds, I think limited. Miami possibly the biggest news of 2020, but AA is being stubborn with PDX. Also I could see Jet Blue dumping PDX and either AA picking up JFK or DL adding.

Also at some point WN going to Alaska.


All of your predictions make sense to me. I smile and cringe at the same time when I see mention of PDX-CDG.

Domestically, and with the DL 20% stake in LATAM, I think we'll see DL add PDX-MIA, which would provide feed the HND flight, but also the other way to DL's expanded network to Latin America. Also, I think DL will make other domestic adds as well, notably CVG with an A220, and then also BOS, MSY, and BNA. Not sure what AA or B6's strategy is for PDX anymore. With WN moving to their new gates, and presumably the MAX coming back, they will look to strengthen their position in PDX, and apply pressure to F9, B6, and Spirit.

For Asia, rather than ICN, a dark-horse add might be to the new airport in Beijing on DL.


I quite agree with your predictions herein. I believe you are spot on regarding DL and the possibility of them adding a PDX-MIA flight. Certainly the landscape has changed since DL partnered with LATAM. DL is on record stating that they will be making flight additions out of Miami to facilitate movement of passengers to LATAM routes in Latin America. I think this unserved route is a long time in coming and DL seems to be the most likely if it were to come to fruition.

On your other points, I certainly agree that PDX-CVG is a logical add. While CVG is not the DL fortress hub it once was...they still maintain a sizeable presence in Cincinnati. The PDX-CVG route previously existed and it would make sense if DL came in with an Airbus 319/320 or the 220 in order to serve the route once again. In speaking to the connectivity that comes with a PDX-CVG or vice-versa route...it stands to reason that a well timed arrival/departure would allow passengers to connect from CVG to the PDX-Tokyo Haneda flight and conversely it may also be possible to funnel PDX-CVG connections on to the CVG to Paris flight.

On the subject of BOS. I recently reviewed a statistic from the DOT Transtats site that outlined the BOS-PDX route had witnessed an 80% increase in demand over a recent November 2019 period. In essence, approximately 3,000 more passengers flew this route during the November review period...which translated to the 3rd highest nationwide increase encompassing all US domestic passenger city pairs.
Source: https://www.bts.gov/topics/airlines-and ... anksgiving
With DL recently establishing BOS as a hub city I truly believe that a PDX-BOS Delta route is simply a matter of time and that DL will be able to offer a better timed schedule and product than what B6 has been offering over the last several years.
 
User avatar
ADent
Posts: 1055
Joined: Fri Dec 22, 2006 12:11 pm

Re: Oregon Aviation Thread - 2020

Mon Jan 06, 2020 10:27 pm

pdxav8r wrote:

AS just doesn’t have any interest in PDX-DEN. You would think if they thought they would succeed, they would have done it long ago.

I don’t think they want to be the 4th airline on the route.

But Frontier is down to 1 flight a day for the winter, so maybe AS would jump in. However fares look cheap, if you book a week ahead.

And with 12 flights a day for the 3 airlines scheduled in the summer (9 in winter), how much more service is needed?
 
User avatar
bigfoot0503
Posts: 428
Joined: Wed Mar 08, 2006 5:17 pm

Re: Oregon Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Jan 07, 2020 1:43 am

bigfoot0503 wrote:
DeltaPSCFlyer wrote:
PDXPOL wrote:
Happy New Year! So this year's 2020 predictions. I will see what I can find out but my guesses are...

DL's PDX- LHR, Stays status quo this year then goes year round limited. I have seen the numbers, London before BA announcement was still the number 1 market underserved.
Amsterdam flight stays as is.
Haneda flight stays as is.
CDG - NOPE, will cannibalize Amsterdam.

Asia is the next one I guess. Haneda will be stable as current NRT was with O&D. I guess a chance DL or partner to Korea, or a Japanese airline to NRT. There is a need for feed to Asia. Asian is the fastest growing population in Oregon.

Airlines will fine tune for connections.

Domestic adds, I think limited. Miami possibly the biggest news of 2020, but AA is being stubborn with PDX. Also I could see Jet Blue dumping PDX and either AA picking up JFK or DL adding.

Also at some point WN going to Alaska.


All of your predictions make sense to me. I smile and cringe at the same time when I see mention of PDX-CDG.

Domestically, and with the DL 20% stake in LATAM, I think we'll see DL add PDX-MIA, which would provide feed the HND flight, but also the other way to DL's expanded network to Latin America. Also, I think DL will make other domestic adds as well, notably CVG with an A220, and then also BOS, MSY, and BNA. Not sure what AA or B6's strategy is for PDX anymore. With WN moving to their new gates, and presumably the MAX coming back, they will look to strengthen their position in PDX, and apply pressure to F9, B6, and Spirit.

For Asia, rather than ICN, a dark-horse add might be to the new airport in Beijing on DL.


I quite agree with your predictions herein. I believe you are spot on regarding DL and the possibility of them adding a PDX-MIA flight. Certainly the landscape has changed since DL partnered with LATAM. DL is on record stating that they will be making flight additions out of Miami to facilitate movement of passengers to LATAM routes in Latin America. I think this unserved route is a long time in coming and DL seems to be the most likely if it were to come to fruition.

On your other points, I certainly agree that PDX-CVG is a logical add. While CVG is not the DL fortress hub it once was...they still maintain a sizeable presence in Cincinnati. The PDX-CVG route previously existed and it would make sense if DL came in with an Airbus 319/320 or the 220 in order to serve the route once again. In speaking to the connectivity that comes with a PDX-CVG or vice-versa route...it stands to reason that a well timed arrival/departure would allow passengers to connect from CVG to the PDX-Tokyo Haneda flight and conversely it may also be possible to funnel PDX-CVG connections on to the CVG to Paris flight.

On the subject of BOS. I recently reviewed a statistic from the DOT Transtats site that outlined the BOS-PDX route had witnessed an 80% increase in demand over a recent November 2019 period. In essence, approximately 3,000 more passengers flew this route during the November review period...which translated to the 3rd highest nationwide increase encompassing all US domestic passenger city pairs.
Source: https://www.bts.gov/topics/airlines-and ... anksgiving
With DL recently establishing BOS as a hub city I truly believe that a PDX-BOS Delta route is simply a matter of time and that DL will be able to offer a better timed schedule and product than what B6 has been offering over the last several years.


A correction to my cited information from DOT Transtats...the time period cited in the report was November 2018, I incorrectly stated 2019.
 
jplatts
Posts: 3332
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: Oregon Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Jan 07, 2020 1:53 am

bigfoot0503 wrote:
On your other points, I certainly agree that PDX-CVG is a logical add. While CVG is not the DL fortress hub it once was...they still maintain a sizeable presence in Cincinnati. The PDX-CVG route previously existed and it would make sense if DL came in with an Airbus 319/320 or the 220 in order to serve the route once again. In speaking to the connectivity that comes with a PDX-CVG or vice-versa route...it stands to reason that a well timed arrival/departure would allow passengers to connect from CVG to the PDX-Tokyo Haneda flight and conversely it may also be possible to funnel PDX-CVG connections on to the CVG to Paris flight.


While most of DL's domestic nonstop routes out of CVG have nonstop competition, DL still operates a few domestic nonstop routes out of CVG to destinations other than hubs or focus cities that currently have no nonstop competition such as CVG-BDL, CVG-MCI, CVG-SFO, and CVG-STL.

DL's CVG-BOS, CVG-DTW, CVG-RDU, CVG-SLC, and CVG-SEA also currently have no nonstop competition, but DL has hubs or focus cities at BOS, DTW, RDU, SLC, and SEA.

DL also doesn't currently have any nonstop competition on PDX-ATL and PDX-DTW, even though AS previously served ATL and DTW nonstop from PDX.

I have also previously mentioned that DL would have some connecting traffic to and from some U.S. East Coast destinations on its PDX-CVG nonstop flights in addition to CVG-PDX-HND connecting traffic, PDX-CVG-CDG connecting traffic, or O&D traffic if PDX-CVG nonstop service is re-added by DL.

DL would likely have some connecting traffic from LGA on its PDX-CVG nonstop flights if PDX-CVG nonstop service is re-added with LGA being perimeter-restricted, with DL having hubs at both LGA and JFK in NYC, with DL having a significant FF base in the NYC market, and with PDX being outside of the LGA perimeter.

The PDEW on PDX-CVG was 63 passengers/day in Q2 2019, but DL would likely be able to easily fill an A220-100 on PDX-CVG due to CVG-PDX-HND, PDX-CVG-CDG, and PDX-CVG-East Coast connecting traffic in addition to O&D.
 
na7ool
Posts: 1
Joined: Mon Dec 23, 2019 11:15 pm

Re: Oregon Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Jan 07, 2020 8:44 pm

I'm excited for the new route from PDX to LHR. 787 would be cool if it happens.
 
flyoregon
Posts: 750
Joined: Thu Jul 09, 2015 5:29 pm

Re: Oregon Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Jan 07, 2020 11:38 pm

Looks like JSX is opening shop in Portland. A couple new job postings for PDX on the JSX website as of yesterday.
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 6940
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: Oregon Aviation Thread - 2020

Wed Jan 08, 2020 1:29 am

jplatts wrote:
DL's CVG-BOS, CVG-DTW, CVG-RDU, CVG-SLC, and CVG-SEA also currently have no nonstop competition, but DL has hubs or focus cities at BOS, DTW, RDU, SLC, and SEA.

DL also doesn't currently have any nonstop competition on PDX-ATL and PDX-DTW, even though AS previously served ATL and DTW nonstop from PDX.

I have also previously mentioned that DL would have some connecting traffic to and from some U.S. East Coast destinations on its PDX-CVG nonstop flights in addition to CVG-PDX-HND connecting traffic, PDX-CVG-CDG connecting traffic, or O&D traffic if PDX-CVG nonstop service is re-added by DL.


PDX-DTW isn't even daily, and only in the last few years has it been year-round, with more than 4x the DL flights of CVG. PDX-CVG is fantasy.
 
tphuang
Posts: 4181
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: Oregon Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:25 pm

As mentioned on JSX thread, they are starting PDX-BFI in April with 5x daily
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jsx-spri ... Mq9J2iEIGS
 
twincommander
Posts: 224
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2005 11:54 pm

Re: Oregon Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:36 pm

tphuang wrote:
As mentioned on JSX thread, they are starting PDX-BFI in April with 5x daily
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jsx-spri ... Mq9J2iEIGS


Picking up where SeaPort left off. Hope they do better than my old company did.
 
jspurg15
Posts: 14
Joined: Wed Oct 30, 2019 7:04 pm

Re: Oregon Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:47 pm

DeltaPSCFlyer wrote:
Happy New Year and decade, fellow Oregon Aviation fans!

I think it will be a good year for Oregon aviation, highlighted by:
- BA coming to PDX in June, starting year-round service to LHR; first regularly scheduled 787 service to PDX
- DL upgrading to daily service year round to HND with the A332, starting in late March, replacing the older 763.
- DL upgrading (slightly) to its refurbished __-class 764 for the daily seasonal LHR flight, which starts 3 weeks earlier in 2020
- New WN gates on the extended E concourse at PDX, allowing for a smoother operation on the B/C gates with less congestion.
- PSC-ORD on UA starting in June (I know this airport is in WA, but it is the primary airport that serves most of north central/Eastern Oregon

What else might we see this year?
- Additional expansion at EUG, MFR, and RDM?
- New routes?
- New airlines (domestic & intl.)
- Discontinued routes (hopefully not...)

My predictions:
- DL extends PDX-LHR year round, with 5x service in the off-peak season to match BA
- PDX finally surpasses the 20 million mark
- AS adds frequencies and markets to PDX, to help offset the SEA mess and to also support the new BA route
- Condor announces it is discontinuing service to PDX after the Summer '20 season. (This will depend on its overall financial health and ability to survive overall)
- Dark horse prediction: an announcement is made later in the year that an existing slot to ICN has been freed up that will allow the start PDX-ICN in 2021. (DL or KE)

All the best to each of you in 2020!
DeltaPSCFlyer


Hello Fellow spotters!! You guys might know my insta {Kpdx_aviation}. I think BA was a perfect choice for PDX! I am beyond excited for that route!
 
jspurg15
Posts: 14
Joined: Wed Oct 30, 2019 7:04 pm

Re: Oregon Aviation Thread - 2020

Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:48 pm

na7ool wrote:
I'm excited for the new route from PDX to LHR. 787 would be cool if it happens.



Its gonna happen man!
 
lhpdx
Posts: 925
Joined: Tue Dec 12, 2006 5:36 pm

Re: Oregon Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Jan 12, 2020 6:51 am

Does Nippon Cargo still fly via Portland???
 
pdxav8r
Posts: 244
Joined: Mon Jun 10, 2013 3:15 am

Re: Oregon Aviation Thread - 2020

Sun Jan 12, 2020 8:58 am

lhpdx wrote:
Does Nippon Cargo still fly via Portland???

Good catch. Looks like they took the month off. But #4351 is inbound from NRT right now.
 
mbk26
Posts: 1
Joined: Thu Jan 17, 2019 8:33 pm

Re: Oregon Aviation Thread - 2020

Tue Jan 14, 2020 4:07 pm

Hey folks, new guy on the block. Has anyone heard of anything about Hawaiian increasing frequency for the summer? Being new I have zero credibility, but I was told this by someone out at the PoP. I’m wondering if anybody else has heard something or it’s just a rumor. If true, this would be a great little add.
 
flyoregon
Posts: 750
Joined: Thu Jul 09, 2015 5:29 pm

Re: Oregon Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 17, 2020 12:23 am

With all of the growth RDM has seen in the last couple of years, how likely would it be that AA adds DFW (with incentives I'm sure)?
 
User avatar
TransWorldOne
Posts: 348
Joined: Sun May 14, 2017 12:13 am

Re: Oregon Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 17, 2020 2:27 am

flyoregon wrote:
With all of the growth RDM has seen in the last couple of years, how likely would it be that AA adds DFW (with incentives I'm sure)?


Doesn't sound unlikely to me at all. It would be a good (albeit, long) E-175 route.
 
flyoregon
Posts: 750
Joined: Thu Jul 09, 2015 5:29 pm

Re: Oregon Aviation Thread - 2020

Fri Jan 17, 2020 2:35 am

TransWorldOne wrote:
flyoregon wrote:
With all of the growth RDM has seen in the last couple of years, how likely would it be that AA adds DFW (with incentives I'm sure)?


Doesn't sound unlikely to me at all. It would be a good (albeit, long) E-175 route.


The 175 would be perfect. As far as length, AS does PDX-DAL/MSP/MCI on the 175 and their similar/shorter in length. I’ve flown to DAL on the 175 and prefer it actually

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