BDL - Data - Y/E 2019/u]
Source file: https://bradleyairport.com/wp-content/u ... -FINAL.pdf
First up with their year end numbers is BDL, the good news, overall they ended up for the year, although it's a bit of a mixed bag of individual results.
Support File Location: https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B61t8 ... VRWdmc5SkEMonth Dec 19:
The diverging nature of the airlines can certainly be seen in the Dec numbers
19 vs 18 comparatives
Overall: 564,833 vs 537,511, up 5.1%,
Outbound (Enplane): 286,626 vs 270,790 up 15,836 or 5.8%
Inbound (Deplane): 278,207 vs 266,721 up 11,486 or 4.3%
So actually a decent month being up 5% over the prior year, as ever there are some ups and downs.. again, in order of market share..
1. AA - 138,800 vs 125,480 up 13,320 or 10.6% overall
, moved to #1 status for December after WN's decline (more on that in a minute) and ended up with a 24.6% share up 1.2% over the prior year. Outbound up 6,518 or 10.4%, Inbound up 6,802 or 10.8%, so a good balance on both sides. Overall the increases came from mainline (9,761 or 9.8%) , Expressjet was up 3,515 from a zero in 2018 and Republic up 6,144 or 128.2%, these were offset by reductions in flying from Envoy (no flying in 2019), PSA (down 22.1%) and Piedmont (down 6.8%, but on a very small amount of actual pax.
2. WN - 1st last year, 1st no more, 126,194 vs 132,956 down 6,762 or 5.1%
. outbound pax fared slightly better down just 3.7% or 2,436, inbound took the brunt down, 4,326 or 6.5%, market share dropped from 24.7% to 22.3%
3. DL - DL are smelling blood in the water. 107,859 vs 98,131 up 9,728 or 9.9%
. Huge increase in mainline 11,615 or a 13.8% increase, the net drop coming primarily from Endeavor. Outbound was up 11.4% and Inbound up 8.5%. Also increased market share to 19.1% from 18.3%. Definitely a good month for DL.
4. B6 - second of the drop offs, 72,147 vs 75,268, down 3,121 or 4.1%
, like WN, outbound fared better (3% down) than inbound (5.4% down), market share dropped from 14% to 12.8%..
5. UA - maintain 5th spot, with a big but.. 51,693 vs 53,575 down 1,882 or 3.5%
, big changes were a reduction in mainline of 16.1% off set by Republic and Mesa, but not enough to make up the gap, market share dropped out of the 10% level to 9.2%. The "but" i hear you ask.. well that comes in at #6
6. NK - 3rd highest YOY growth with 8.7% or 3,733 (46,518 vs 42,785)
the split was in favor of inbound at 9.2% or 1,906, that leaves them around 5K short of UA, given UA's continuing reductions, I could see the distinct possibility of these switching next year, it's a long time to wait, but i will be curious to see if it comes about in the end.
7. F9 - First year in a December with 11,558 pax
, generating 2% market share, again slight balance towards outbound.
8. International - 8% up for the month albeit only 748 increase, Jazz up 11.5%, DL up 7.2% and just as important EI up 5% (234)[u]Year and 5 year analysis (2015 thru 2019)
As it's the end of the year, time to take stock of where we are. I will still note the airlines in their market share order, but will do a Year 18 vs 19 analysis and a 5 year analysis too, so you can see how the various airlines have fared over that time.
#1 - AA18 vs 19
1,648,173 vs 1,607,934 up 40,239 or 2.5%. Modest growth overall, mainline up 70,635 or 5.9%, which shows AA is bringing in bigger aircraft and supporting the routes, there was almost a 100% trade off against Transstates/Go Jet, who dropped to 0, big increases also from Envoy and PSA and Skywest had their first year, offset with a drop from Piedmont.
Outbound - 819,419 vs 800,668 up 18,751 or 2.3%
Inbound - 828,754 vs 807,266 up 21,488 or 2.7%
Market Share increase from 24.1% to 24.4%15 vs 19
1,648,173 vs 1,508,423 up 139,750 or 9.3%. Modest growth overall and fairly consistent at just under 2% a year on average. massive switch in flying with mainline up 501,960 or 65.3%, also increases by PSA and Skywest and Piedmont, traded off against Air Wisconsin gone (181,438), Transstates gone (60,222), and Republic massively reduced (283,131), all points to bigger gauge routes from AA.
Outbound - 819,419 vs 753,762 up 65,657 or 8.7%
Inbound - 828,754 vs 754,661 up 74,093 or 9.8%
Interestingly however, due to moves elsewhere Market Share has actually decreased from 25.4% to 24.4%, but they have taken #1 spot from WN since 2017..
#2 - WN18 vs 19
Sadly the only way is down for WN in regards to BDL, but that reduction is allowing other airlines to flourish in the market and buoy the overall number.
1,419,693 vs 1,550,453 down 130,760 or 8.4%. this is pretty self explanatory however coupled with DL's growth pattern over the year there is a very great possibility that they could switch places in 2020, time will tell of course and once the Max's return, may some of the flying will too. But for now.. the trend is very much in the negative.
Outbound - 712,697 vs 779,267 down 66,570 or 8.5%
Inbound - 706,996 vs 771,186 down 64,190 or 8.3%
Market Share decrease from 23.3% to 21.0%15 vs 19
1,419,693 vs 1,647,931 down 228,238 or 13.8%. as I noted above, WN's reductions have really opened the door for others to walk in and you will see that below, but giving up #1 slot even with the max reductions has to be a calculated philosophy by WN to pull down by this amount and i see the trend continuing in 2020.
Outbound - 712,697 vs 827,147 down 114,450 or 13.8%
Inbound - 706,996 vs 820,784 down 113,788 or 13.9%
Market share has dropped from 27.8% down to 21% so roughly 1.2% per year
#3 - DL18 vs 19
DL is an interesting position while it has maintained it's #3 slot the gap to WN has closed by nearly 200K pax this year alone, suggesting if that trend continues, that #2 is very much up for grabs in 2020.
1,324,456 vs 1,262,561 up 61,895 or 4.9%. and this is why WN are at risk of losing their spot, 68K increase in mainline and 18K increase in Endeavor with a trade off against Skywest of around 28K
Outbound - 661,769 vs 626,692 up 35,077 or 5,6%
Inbound - 662,687 vs 635,869 up 26,818 or 4.2%, interesting to see only an 1,100 split in inbound and outbound.
Market Share increase 19.6% vs 18.9% cements their #3 position but only 1.4% short now of WN. 15 vs 19
1,324,456 vs 1,309,908 up 14,548 or 1.1%. so interestingly over a 5 year stretch DL has gone pretty flat overall, 2018 was actually their lowest point during the period, which accentuates the increase from 2018, so who knows, will the trajectory continue, or are they topping out. they have WN there for the taking in terms of pax numbers, but will they...
Outbound - 661,769 vs 654,065 up 7,704 or 1.0%
Inbound - 662,687 vs 655,843 up 6,844 or 1.0%
Despite the 18 vs 19 increase, Market share has actually dropped from 22.1% down to 19.6% as a result of their limited overall growth and new entrants into the market.
#4 - B618 vs 19
B6 is out on its own, no chance of catching DL and little chance of being overtaken from below, the nearest challenger UA is getting further behind and then NK is nowhere near moving up either.
883,514 vs 847,899 up 35,615 or 4.2%. not a bad increase overall, but there have been ups and downs during the year, so we shall see if the trend continues or not.
Outbound - 446,788 vs 426,987 up 19,801 or 4.6%
Inbound - 436,726 vs 420,912 up 15,814 or 3.8%, nice to see the outbound % increase more, shows folks are using the flights from the BDL area.
Market Share increased by 0.4% from 12.7% to 13.1%, which in the face of big increases elsewhere, is just ok.15 vs 19
883,514 vs 849,892 up 33,622 or 4.0%. similar situation to DL, where 2018 was the lowest point in the 5 year period, which accentuates the increase from 2018 as well. so it will be interesting to see if they do even more in 2020, while 883K is their highest, one wonders if they are actually going to increase further and break the 900K mark, or this is about it for them.
Outbound - 446,788 vs 424,457 up 22,331 or 5.3%
Inbound - 436,726 vs 425,435 up 11,291 or 2.7% , this is one of the larger shifts to outbound, almost double the increase vs inboud, again, folks in BDL using the services,.
Again Despite the 18 vs 19 increase, Market share has actually dropped from 14.3% down to 13.1% as a result of their limited overall growth and new entrants into the market as a whole.
#5 - UA18 vs 19
UA is also in limbo, stuck in 6th place, and while there I don't think there is much danger of NK catching them, the gap narrowed by 110K between 2018 and 2019, which is significant, should NK try and grow further into the market.
694,643 vs 764,229 down 69,586 or 9.1%. the question here is whether this is a course correction by UA or it's the start of a trend, as you will see, the 2015 vs 2019 numbers show a very different story. All the regionals and mainline were down YOY with Mesa the only increase in flying to the tune of 46,637 pax, but the rest knocked that out of the park sadly.
Outbound - 347,974 vs 382,804 down 34,830 or 9.1%,
Inbound - 346,669 vs 381,425 down 34,756 or also 9.1%,
Market Share decreased by 1.2% from 11.5% to 10.3%, albeit as noted above 2018 was their biggest number, so the change is accentuated. 15 vs 19
694,643 vs 561,297 up 133,346 or 23.8%, so over 5 years a roughly 4.5% increase , which actually is not that bad considering and shows commitment to the market, but the blip from 18 to 19 might signal a new trend, we won't know until we start seeing the 2020 numbers roll in. Unlike the 18 to 19 flying, the 15 to 19 flying is entirely a switch from regionals to mainline, 369K more mainline pax with the biggest drop coming from Skywest.
Outbound - 347,974 vs vs 282,365 up 65,609 or 23.2%
Inbound - 346,669 vs 278,932 up 67,737 or 24.3% , another scenario with an almost 50/50 split with inbound and outbound.
So for UA, their market share over the period actually increased from 9.5% to 10.3%, despite the 18/19 drop.
#6 - NK18 vs 19
NK continue to grow at BDL, and hopefully we can see the trend continue, but a 500K plus number in 3 years is pretty huge growth factor, so do they back off and cement what they have or continue to forge ahead?
514,355 vs 471,277 up 43,078 or 9.1%. this shows the catching of UA because of their reduction.
Outbound - 256,231 vs 233,750 up 22,481 or 9.6%,
Inbound - 258,124 vs 237,527 up 20,597 or also 8.7%, yet another outbound growth higher than that of the inbound. Consistent situation here.
Market Share increased by 0.5% from 7.1% to 7.6%.15 vs 19
As NK weren't flying in 2015, everything would be 100% growth, but 7.6% market share and 500K+ pax has made a name for themselves in this airport, this story will continue to be 1 to keep an eye on for sure.
#7 - International18 vs 19
Overall a slight reduction from 18 to 19 by less than 1,000 pax, which means the remaining international routes are continuing to hold their own
157,164 vs 158,109 down 945 or 0.6%.
EI - 84,965 vs 82,878 up 2,087 or 2.5% - steady as she goes for EI after a tiny dip from 17 to 18 a nice increase for 19
QK (Jazz) - 65,574 vs 60,708 up 4,866 or 8% - the switch to Jazz has gone very well from ZX (Air Georgian), with this growth, but will we see further growth in 20...
DL - drop from 10,702 to 6,625 a 38% drop, not much to say here, but clearly a big drop in their international routes.
D8 - dropped all routes in 2018.15 vs 19
Only DL and ZX were flying in 2015, DL at 10K and ZX at 45K, so the drop in DL is about the same and the Canadian flying has grown by almost 45%, quite impressive.
Last but not least, the new kid on the block with F9, 110K pax in 2019 , 55,696 outbound, 54,110 inbound, it's only a 1.6% market share, but we will see where this goes in 2020. The only way, unless they use their dartboard approach is up.
So to my year end estimate, I ended up 17K over the number as B6, DL, NK, UA and WN all fell below what i thought and only AA and F9 were above. Final total: 6,751,804...
So what about 2020... well based on the growth trajectory from 15 to 19, it's running about 2.7% a year which could potentially put BDL at 6.93m this year, if we use the 18 vs 19 growth then we get 6.83m.. either way growth is good right?
I will post the others (PVD and MHT) when they are released.