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mjgbtv
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Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Thu Jan 30, 2020 1:15 pm

PVD757 wrote:
The numbers and logic often point to obvious opportunities for MHT and PVD but the airlines have clearly decided to place their eggs in the BOS basket. The rich keep getting richer it seems.


From reading the airline and BOS threads it seems like there are (better?) opportunities in BOS if airlines can get the gates and planes, and there are probably synergies to concentrating their flights in BOS.
 
lat41
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Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Thu Jan 30, 2020 2:13 pm

PVD523 wrote:
Write-up on some WN numbers from the WN network thread: https://www.anna.aero/2020/01/27/southwest-airlines-top-airports-by-the-numbers/

MHT and PVD combined owned four of the top five connecting routes through MDW over the time period the article cited, with both airports flowing traffic out to LAS and PHX.

This despite WN's "Western Wall" at PVD and probably MHT whereby high prices to cities in the Western US, both leisure and business, systematically discourage travel in an effort to support the WN BOS operation. At BOS, Southwest's prices have fallen into the cellar in the face of hammering competition and still they have shrunk there.
Last edited by lat41 on Thu Jan 30, 2020 2:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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ChrisNH38
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Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Thu Jan 30, 2020 2:21 pm

For self-serving reasons, Massport would like Worcester to be the preferred reliever airport. But it knows (like we all do) that it is a field with more than a few 'problematic' issues.
https://my.flightradar24.com/ChrisNH
 
PVD523
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Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Thu Jan 30, 2020 5:20 pm

mjgbtv wrote:
PVD757 wrote:
The numbers and logic often point to obvious opportunities for MHT and PVD but the airlines have clearly decided to place their eggs in the BOS basket. The rich keep getting richer it seems.


From reading the airline and BOS threads it seems like there are (better?) opportunities in BOS if airlines can get the gates and planes, and there are probably synergies to concentrating their flights in BOS.


True to a certain extent but when do the efforts to create synergies turn into loss-making enterprises? Or at least lesser-yielding enterprises? Regarding F9's new BOS service, I can guarantee they'd see better yields on PVD-PHL than BOS-PHL. The logic points to PVD yet BOS claims the new service. The rich indeed seem to get richer.
 
PVD757
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Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Thu Jan 30, 2020 5:51 pm

PVD-PHL yields are just under twice that of BOS-PHL.
 
EADSYABSOB73857
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Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Thu Jan 30, 2020 5:52 pm

PVD523 wrote:
mjgbtv wrote:
PVD757 wrote:
The numbers and logic often point to obvious opportunities for MHT and PVD but the airlines have clearly decided to place their eggs in the BOS basket. The rich keep getting richer it seems.


From reading the airline and BOS threads it seems like there are (better?) opportunities in BOS if airlines can get the gates and planes, and there are probably synergies to concentrating their flights in BOS.


True to a certain extent but when do the efforts to create synergies turn into loss-making enterprises? Or at least lesser-yielding enterprises? Regarding F9's new BOS service, I can guarantee they'd see better yields on PVD-PHL than BOS-PHL. The logic points to PVD yet BOS claims the new service. The rich indeed seem to get richer.


You have data to substantiate that claim?
 
mjgbtv
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Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Thu Jan 30, 2020 5:54 pm

PVD523 wrote:
mjgbtv wrote:
PVD757 wrote:
The numbers and logic often point to obvious opportunities for MHT and PVD but the airlines have clearly decided to place their eggs in the BOS basket. The rich keep getting richer it seems.


From reading the airline and BOS threads it seems like there are (better?) opportunities in BOS if airlines can get the gates and planes, and there are probably synergies to concentrating their flights in BOS.


True to a certain extent but when do the efforts to create synergies turn into loss-making enterprises? Or at least lesser-yielding enterprises? Regarding F9's new BOS service, I can guarantee they'd see better yields on PVD-PHL than BOS-PHL. The logic points to PVD yet BOS claims the new service. The rich indeed seem to get richer.


I can't answer those questions, but the airlines should have the data to do it, and maybe their numbers show the cost savings of concentrating their flights at BOS offset the higher yield they might get at PVD or MHT.
 
PVD757
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Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Thu Jan 30, 2020 6:03 pm

EADSYABSOB73857 wrote:
PVD523 wrote:
mjgbtv wrote:

From reading the airline and BOS threads it seems like there are (better?) opportunities in BOS if airlines can get the gates and planes, and there are probably synergies to concentrating their flights in BOS.


True to a certain extent but when do the efforts to create synergies turn into loss-making enterprises? Or at least lesser-yielding enterprises? Regarding F9's new BOS service, I can guarantee they'd see better yields on PVD-PHL than BOS-PHL. The logic points to PVD yet BOS claims the new service. The rich indeed seem to get richer.


You have data to substantiate that claim?


Per USDOT O&D data, PVD-PHL yield is just under 96 cents per mile while BOS-PHL is just under 46 cents.

PVD-PHL load factor for the 12 months ended third quarter was 82% while BOS-PHL was 76%.

It has also recently been reported that PVD’s CPE is much lower than BOS.
 
F27500
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Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Thu Jan 30, 2020 6:56 pm

HVNandrew wrote:
F27500 wrote:
uconn99 wrote:
I don't remember AA cutting flights in the past, HVN is down to 2x daily to PHL (Sunday, Monday, Thursday, Friday) and 1x daily (Saturday, Tuesday, Wednesday) for January/February. CLT remains at 1x SAT only.

https://www.hartfordbusiness.com/articl ... ir-service


Seems like a great way to kill off a market. 1 or 2 flights a day? Don't even bother. All they're doing is making HVN even more of a joke to the local area and travellers with this meager schedule.

1 flight a day a few days a week is pretty bleak. That just doesn't provide adequate options for most people. To me the current service level speaks volumes about the market and its performance.

Extending the runway has been portrayed by some as the saving grace for HVN that will result in a plethora of new service, but I just don't see it. Airlines could start service to east coast/midwest hubs tomorrow if they wanted to. Those E75s flying down to CLT could also fly to IAD, DTW, etc., but nobody is clamoring to fly those routes. For whatever reason, airlines have by and large seem to have determined the HVN market just isn't worth it for them. Perhaps because the market is already effectively served by BDL/NYC/HPN, and adding service to HVN would just (a) involve deploying extra resources into the area, while (b) only drawing passengers away from those other airports as opposed to generating actual organic passenger growth in the area, which passengers are (c) not willing to pay a premium to fly out of HVN. More equipment, the same amount of people, and no revenue premium would not be an attractive combo for an airline.


I notice they go back up from 1 to 2 flights a day in mid Feb .. but still crap times .. 6am and 10:30am .. through March,. No afternoon or evening flight. April schedule shows 3 PSA CRJs a day again .. but I'm not sure if thats just because they haven't finalized the schedule ..
 
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LotsaRunway
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Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Thu Jan 30, 2020 7:00 pm

F27500 wrote:
I notice they go back up from 1 to 2 flights a day in mid Feb .. but still crap times .. 6am and 10:30am .. through March,. No afternoon or evening flight. April schedule shows 3 PSA CRJs a day again .. but I'm not sure if thats just because they haven't finalized the schedule ..

Those aren't crap times IMHO. Most people fly out in the morning and on the return have the option of coming in during the morning or at the end of the day. There's good connections all the way around.
 
mjgbtv
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Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Fri Jan 31, 2020 8:18 pm

This is slightly outside of NE, but it might be relevant to BTV - Local news is reporting that three airlines have applied for service at Plattsburgh, including Silver to BOS and Cape Air (undisclosed destination)

https://www.wcax.com/content/news/3-air ... dFiICPn3kM

I wonder if this might satisfy some peoples' desire for a BTV to BOS service, and maybe doom any chance of that happening?
 
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VS4ever
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Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Sat Feb 01, 2020 3:11 am

MHT - 2019 Final Data

Source file: https://mk0flymanchestevtsp6.kinstacdn. ... r-2019.pdf

File Location: https://drive.google.com/open?id=19v-Fd ... QvUMzlAqjN

Month: Dec 19

Like November is a case of 2 up , 2 down, but the overall total is still down as usual..

Overall: 132,363 vs 133,746, down 1.0% (1,383) (one of the better overall reductions of the year)
Outbound (Enplane): 65,868 vs 65,213 up 1% (655) - shocking I know..
Inbound (Deplane): 66,495 vs 68,533 down 3% (2,038)

In comparison the Dec 2014 number was 157,005

As I said above, it's 2 up, 2 down for the month.

1. WN (Down) - still #1 by a decent margin (30K pax), but a 5K drop (77,164 down to 72,183) Market Share dropped from 57.7% down to 54.5% (in 2014, they carried 92,441 and had a share of 58.5%

2. AA (Up) - AA continue their upward trend, increase was 18.7%, (35,364 to 41,987) or 6,623, which more than covered WN's drop, but couldn't bridge the difference between DL's drop and UA's increase. Market Share 31.7% vs 26.4% last year (in 2014, carried 33,837 and had a 21.6% share),

3. DL - (Down), Another big Drop for DL in Dec by 31.6% (17,060 vs 11,664) for a drop of 5,396, meaning a 4% drop in market share from 12.8% to 8.8% (in 2014, they carried 19,462 and had a share of 12.4%).

4. UA - (Up), following another huge drop from 17 to 18, UA recovered by 57% 4,158 to 6,529 for 2,371 increase, as a result market share increased from 3.1% to 4.9% (2014 carried 11,191 for a share of 7.1%, still significantly down, but up is good!

Year

Red numbers everywhere except for AA, who grew quite significantly in the end.

Overall Year down by 6.5% (1.727,532 vs 1,847,908) - 120K drop, so basically an average of 10K per month straightlined,
Outbound down by 60,928 (926,481 vs 865,553) or 6.6%
Inbound down by 59,448 (921,427 vs 861,979) or 6.5%

All rankings remain the same, because nobody is close enough to leapfrog another.

WN is still #1 with a 52.8% share, but this is down 1.8% and they went crashing through the psychological 1m mark (1,008,068 vs 912,043) - 96,025 down or 9.5%. (2014 they carried 1,173,247 and a 56% market share), they are still the dominant carrier by a long way, but the gap is slowly being eaten away, 140K this year alone and over 340K since 2014...quite staggering really.

AA is #2 and was the only airline to increase it's footprint in 2019, (468,001 vs 511,467) - up 43,466 or 9.3% increased market share by 4.3% to 29.6%, and actually more than covered DL's losses for the year, but not nearly enough to cover the other 2. On this trajectory and WN's, AA should jump through the 30% market share barrier very soon, in 2014 they carried 435,126 pax but only had a share of 20.8%, due to WN's dominance at the time), mainline was way gone in 2019 (down 12K), but the slack was taken up pretty consistently by the regionals.

#3 is DL down 16% in 2019 (255,358 to 214,385) - 41K drop and as a result dropped its market share from 13.8% to 12.4%, they are in no danger of dropping to #4, but they have dropped by over 100,000 since 2014 (323,693 down to 214,385) and a market share drop of 3%, no real signs of life here unfortunately. Main drop was a 6K drop in Mainline,

#4 is UA down 22.8% for the year, despite it's recent increases (114,593 to 88,449) - 26K drop and dropped its market from 6.2% down to 5.1% and lagging the others significantly. It will be interesting to see if 2020 starts the same way and UA continue to tick upwards again. ) UA traded a reduction in Commutair with increases in Mesa and Air Wisconsin.


This was my forecast at the end of November, what did i get right? "Based on my current estimate, I expect MHT to run just over 1.7m this year (Yes) vs 1.9m last year (yes although my comparative was incorrect and has now been fixed). AA could breach the 500K barrier (yes), WN are perilously close to dropping below 900K (off my 12K, but the sentiment was correct), UA will not hit 100K (yep, that didn't happen and DL should just make it over 200K." (yep by 14K)

A look on the other side of the fence to the Freight numbers

Month: Dec-19
Big month up 7.7% from 19,388,212 to 20,876,814 (1,488,602), I only have numbers back to 2013, but it's the highest number ever by some 800,000lbs or so.

The big 3 who comprise over 99% of the total, had mixed fortunes.

FX - down 1.1% or 78K to 7,280,977 from 7,358,982 (2014 was 6,481,434 as a comparative, growth since then has been 12.3%)
5X - up 14.3% or 1.643m to 13,113,233 ( in comparison 2014 was 10,686,862, a 22.7% increase)
WG - down 17.7% or 86K to 400,993 (WG is a FX affiliate, but reports separate numbers) - 2014 was 585,288 down 31.5% to date.

was nice to see WN increase by 13.4% albeit from 68,610 to 77,815

Year 2019

The year ended at 193,779,214 up 4.3% from 185,804,883 last year and 159,371,572 in 2014.. over 30m lbs more of cargo in the same time period.

Big 3 numbers

FX - down 0.1% from 76,171,938 to 76,060,254, comparison to 2014 was 65,155,406, so up 16% over 5 years, despite the minor reduction in 2019
5X - up 7.7% or 7,971,166 to 110,928,178 from 102,957,012 last year. 2014 was 87,662,608 so 2019 is up 26.5% over 5 years,
WG - up 2.5% or 148K to 6,127,539 from 5,979,234 last year, despite recent drops, remains to be seen if there is a rebound in 2020, or the start of a trend

The only other airline of note was WN, and they dropped 7.9% on the year from 684,996 to 631.117, but up from 403,702 5 years earlier.
AA is now in the game at a small level, up 20K on the year to 32,126, be interesting to see where this goes

My estimate for end of year was 192,978,144, so i was roughly 800K off. oh well..
That feeling when you sit at the end of a runway, brakes are released and the raw power takes over. Now that is a thing of beauty and it never gets old.
 
airlineworker
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Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Sat Feb 01, 2020 4:06 am

HVNandrew wrote:
F27500 wrote:
uconn99 wrote:
I don't remember AA cutting flights in the past, HVN is down to 2x daily to PHL (Sunday, Monday, Thursday, Friday) and 1x daily (Saturday, Tuesday, Wednesday) for January/February. CLT remains at 1x SAT only.

https://www.hartfordbusiness.com/articl ... ir-service


Seems like a great way to kill off a market. 1 or 2 flights a day? Don't even bother. All they're doing is making HVN even more of a joke to the local area and travellers with this meager schedule.

1 flight a day a few days a week is pretty bleak. That just doesn't provide adequate options for most people. To me the current service level speaks volumes about the market and its performance.

Extending the runway has been portrayed by some as the saving grace for HVN that will result in a plethora of new service, but I just don't see it. Airlines could start service to east coast/midwest hubs tomorrow if they wanted to. Those E75s flying down to CLT could also fly to IAD, DTW, etc., but nobody is clamoring to fly those routes. For whatever reason, airlines have by and large seem to have determined the HVN market just isn't worth it for them. Perhaps because the market is already effectively served by BDL/NYC/HPN, and adding service to HVN would just (a) involve deploying extra resources into the area, while (b) only drawing passengers away from those other airports as opposed to generating actual organic passenger growth in the area, which passengers are (c) not willing to pay a premium to fly out of HVN. More equipment, the same amount of people, and no revenue premium would not be an attractive combo for an airline.


The runway is a limiting factor to a degree, when the Dash's were parked, Piedmont could not bring their ERJ-145's to HVN due to the short runway. The CRJ-200's were weight restricted at times. Soon the displaced threshold on runway 20 will be moved backed giving 5600 feet for landing in both directions and the takeoffs on runway 2 should show better numbers. HVN's metro market base is larger than BDL's and AA is doing quite well. It's been reported that UA and B6 are looking into HVN and Allegiant has already said they will commit to HVN when the runway is longer. BDL/NYC/HPN are all quite a distance away and traffic delays are common. The market can surely support more than the present service, part of the problem might be the old image of HVN with its collection of Dash-8's, B-1900's, Saab 340's, and the like that was a turn off for many flyers. 2018 passengers totals topped by a large margin 2017 numbers and 2019 numbers are 30% higher than 2018. I see 2020 as the year when more service is added such as the CLT flight going daily, UA with the CRJ-550 to ORD and DL to DTW. The SCOTUS is set to announce soon if the will hear the states appeal to overturn the NY appeal court ruling removing the limit of 5600 feet on the runway. The state of Connecticut has been HVN's worst enemy in trying to eliminate all commercial flights in the state apart from BDL. BDL's location is not the best for much of the state, New London-Groton area is closer to PVD and Fairfield county is closer to HPN. While I foresee more service for HVN, it will not be a large operation. Having AA, UA and DL with flights to PHL, CLT, ORD, DTW, ATL and IAD or DCA should meet the needs of most area travellers with regional jets.
I recently took AA's flight HVN-PHL on the E-175, night and day difference from the Dash's that plied the route.
 
Blueknows
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Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Sat Feb 01, 2020 8:26 am

mjgbtv wrote:
This is slightly outside of NE, but it might be relevant to BTV - Local news is reporting that three airlines have applied for service at Plattsburgh, including Silver to BOS and Cape Air (undisclosed destination)

https://www.wcax.com/content/news/3-air ... dFiICPn3kM

I wonder if this might satisfy some peoples' desire for a BTV to BOS service, and maybe doom any chance of that happening?


It’s the renewal for the EAS contract. Its going to go to Skywest (united express). They have flights from PBG-IAD. PBG wants jets. They just have to go through this process every 2 years. If enough airlines start flying to PBG the US government will stop subsidizing the airport.
 
Blueknows
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Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Sat Feb 01, 2020 8:29 am

EAS is designed to help airports attract business/ customers to use airport. I think the contract is roughly about 2 million a year. SKYWEST(oo) is applying for pretty much every EAS contract in NE.
 
airlineworker
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Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Sat Feb 01, 2020 7:42 pm

F27500 wrote:
uconn99 wrote:
I don't remember AA cutting flights in the past, HVN is down to 2x daily to PHL (Sunday, Monday, Thursday, Friday) and 1x daily (Saturday, Tuesday, Wednesday) for January/February. CLT remains at 1x SAT only.

https://www.hartfordbusiness.com/articl ... ir-service


Seems like a great way to kill off a market. 1 or 2 flights a day? Don't even bother. All they're doing is making HVN even more of a joke to the local area and travellers with this meager schedule.


One more point, AA returns to a full HVN schedule in the spring while ORH still has only one DL flight to DTW and one AA flight to PHL, both on 50 seat RJ's. The market is good and that's why the state wants to limit HVN's runway. More service at HVN would result in a drop of car traffic on I-91 northbound to BDL.
 
B595
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Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Sun Feb 02, 2020 2:53 am

mjgbtv wrote:
This is slightly outside of NE, but it might be relevant to BTV - Local news is reporting that three airlines have applied for service at Plattsburgh, including Silver to BOS and Cape Air (undisclosed destination)

I wonder if this might satisfy some peoples' desire for a BTV to BOS service, and maybe doom any chance of that happening?

Pennair served PBG-BOS on SF340s until just prior to Skywest taking over with PBG-IAD. I never heard any suggestion that Pennair's BOS service drew substantially from the Burlington area. And, personally, it would surprise me if PBG-BOS cannibalized BTV-BOS. PBG is not that far from Burlington as the crow flies, but actually driving there is not particularly convenient or quick. Take the ferry, or the long drive up through Alburg.

Speaking of PBG, the service there by Allegiant/Spirit has been remarkably stable. I don't believe there have been any meaningful changes over the past five years or so. Allegiant had its short experiment with PBG-LAS, but after that things seem to have really reached an equilibrium.
 
slcdeltarumd11
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Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Sun Feb 02, 2020 3:32 am

People from Burlington definitely use Plattsburgh for Florida flights. Drive thru the parking lot you will see plenty of green VT plates in every row. Just like the large amount of yellow NY plates at BTV.

BOS specifically I doubt anyone would drive to PBG totally agree it's the wrong direction and wouldn't be too worth it.

Totally agree PBG has been super stable with allegiant and spirit.
 
B595
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Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Sun Feb 02, 2020 7:14 pm

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
People from Burlington definitely use Plattsburgh for Florida flights. Drive thru the parking lot you will see plenty of green VT plates in every row. Just like the large amount of yellow NY plates at BTV.

I don't doubt what you say about PBG-Florida, but that's in a different category than PBG-BOS because driving is not an alternative. There just doesn't seem to be a lot of advantage to flying PBG-BOS instead of driving Burlington-Boston. For flying PBG-BOS:

Drive Burlington-PBG. Google Maps says 1h 35m for the drive through Alburg, 1h 18m catching the ferry from South Hero. And these are estimates from Burlington. It's probably 5-10m longer from Shelburne/Essex/Williston.
Arrive at least an hour early for the PBG-BOS flight.
~45m for the flight itself.
20min to deplane and get out of the BOS terminal.

Add all that up and time-wise it's in the ballpark of driving Burlington-Boston.

Granted if you fly you can possibly get work done while waiting in the airport or on the plane. And once in BOS you can stay on the T and not worry about driving in the city. But the case for flying isn't overwhelming, and you are paying a heck of a lot more for these conveniences.
 
mjgbtv
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Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Sun Feb 02, 2020 8:27 pm

B595 wrote:
slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
People from Burlington definitely use Plattsburgh for Florida flights. Drive thru the parking lot you will see plenty of green VT plates in every row. Just like the large amount of yellow NY plates at BTV.

I don't doubt what you say about PBG-Florida, but that's in a different category than PBG-BOS because driving is not an alternative. There just doesn't seem to be a lot of advantage to flying PBG-BOS instead of driving Burlington-Boston. For flying PBG-BOS:

Drive Burlington-PBG. Google Maps says 1h 35m for the drive through Alburg, 1h 18m catching the ferry from South Hero. And these are estimates from Burlington. It's probably 5-10m longer from Shelburne/Essex/Williston.
Arrive at least an hour early for the PBG-BOS flight.
~45m for the flight itself.
20min to deplane and get out of the BOS terminal.

Add all that up and time-wise it's in the ballpark of driving Burlington-Boston.

Granted if you fly you can possibly get work done while waiting in the airport or on the plane. And once in BOS you can stay on the T and not worry about driving in the city. But the case for flying isn't overwhelming, and you are paying a heck of a lot more for these conveniences.


I wasn't actually thinking so much of the O&D of a possible PBG-BOS service. What I am wondering is how much a PBG-BOS service on Silver (who interlines with DL and B6) might draw away people who would potentially make connections through BOS on a BTV-BOS service.
 
HVNandrew
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Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Mon Feb 03, 2020 3:58 am

airlineworker wrote:
F27500 wrote:
uconn99 wrote:
I don't remember AA cutting flights in the past, HVN is down to 2x daily to PHL (Sunday, Monday, Thursday, Friday) and 1x daily (Saturday, Tuesday, Wednesday) for January/February. CLT remains at 1x SAT only.

https://www.hartfordbusiness.com/articl ... ir-service


Seems like a great way to kill off a market. 1 or 2 flights a day? Don't even bother. All they're doing is making HVN even more of a joke to the local area and travellers with this meager schedule.


One more point, AA returns to a full HVN schedule in the spring while ORH still has only one DL flight to DTW and one AA flight to PHL, both on 50 seat RJ's. The market is good and that's why the state wants to limit HVN's runway. More service at HVN would result in a drop of car traffic on I-91 northbound to BDL.

Comparing ORH's level of service to...almost anywhere else is setting a pretty low bar. Concluding that "the market is good" based on the fact that HVN has an extra flight to PHL over ORH isn't really convincing or saying much.

As I've said before, the runway issue is a red herring at this point. The E75s flying to CLT could fly to other east coast hubs if carriers wanted to fly those routes. They apparently don't see the need,
 
B595
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Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Mon Feb 03, 2020 5:13 am

mjgbtv wrote:
I wasn't actually thinking so much of the O&D of a possible PBG-BOS service. What I am wondering is how much a PBG-BOS service on Silver (who interlines with DL and B6) might draw away people who would potentially make connections through BOS on a BTV-BOS service.

Even with the DL and B6 buildup, the connection opportunities in BOS don't really seem to offer anything over what's already available out of BTV through JFK, DTW, PHL, CLT, ORD, ATL. So something else would have to draw people over to PBG. think there would have to be lower airfares to make up for the inconvenience of getting over there. The free parking would help, too, for people going away for long periods.

Penair on their PBG-BOS flight codeshared with AA as I recall. I checked them for several of my BTV trips but they were never price-competitive with flying out of BTV and connecting in the usual spots. But that was then and this is now, and Silver is a different operator with different costs, and DL and B6 have a lot more connections to offer out of BOS than AA did. I guess we'll see.
 
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Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Mon Feb 03, 2020 12:42 pm

B595 wrote:
mjgbtv wrote:
I wasn't actually thinking so much of the O&D of a possible PBG-BOS service. What I am wondering is how much a PBG-BOS service on Silver (who interlines with DL and B6) might draw away people who would potentially make connections through BOS on a BTV-BOS service.

Even with the DL and B6 buildup, the connection opportunities in BOS don't really seem to offer anything over what's already available out of BTV through JFK, DTW, PHL, CLT, ORD, ATL. So something else would have to draw people over to PBG. think there would have to be lower airfares to make up for the inconvenience of getting over there. The free parking would help, too, for people going away for long periods.

Penair on their PBG-BOS flight codeshared with AA as I recall. I checked them for several of my BTV trips but they were never price-competitive with flying out of BTV and connecting in the usual spots. But that was then and this is now, and Silver is a different operator with different costs, and DL and B6 have a lot more connections to offer out of BOS than AA did. I guess we'll see.


I try to avoid connecting through New York and PHL at some times of the year, so If I could fly B6 but connect through BOS that would be attractive. BOS does not seem to offer as much of an advantage with DL except maybe going to Europe where you would likely connect via JFK. This is probably all academic, though, as I don't give BTV-BOS a lot of chance to begin with, and even less to it being B6.
 
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ChrisNH38
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Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Mon Feb 03, 2020 2:33 pm

Ted Kitchens at MHT sees 'optimism' for 2020. But officials there have been saying that after each of the preceding 14 down years.

But I think he might be right this time, albeit barely. When AA and WN bring back their MAX planes, fleets will have more elasticity. For example, I might envision AA using A319s to ORD. As for WN, more -800s on more routes. In the 'Wishful thinking' category, the trio of routes WN had out of MHT previously...DEN, LAS. PHX...might return. Not all three, obviously, but perhaps one of them.

Any of the above scenarios would cause 2020 to be a slightly 'up' year. You take wins any way you can.
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Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Mon Feb 03, 2020 2:58 pm

Hopefully when WN does start operating their MAX and start adding flying hopefully if MHT-MDW-MHT does not warrant additional service they would consider MHT-STL-MHT or MHT-BNA-MHT as a connecting option on WN. Hopefully in 2021 perhaps see WN add MHT-DEN-MHT and a seasonal service to FLL or RSW. The later two flights are wishful thinking and probably not happening.
For AA the next add I would like to see is MHT-MIA-MHT time to connect with Caribbean and South American flights.
DL as more A220'S join their fleet I would like to see MHT-ATL-MHT be served twice daily, DTW upgraded to mainline and extremely wishful thinking a summer seasonal MHT-MSP-MHT.
UA someday return to ORD or EWR. Again extremely wishful thinking on my part
 
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ChrisNH38
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Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Mon Feb 03, 2020 3:28 pm

georgiabill wrote:
Hopefully when WN does start operating their MAX and start adding flying hopefully if MHT-MDW-MHT does not warrant additional service they would consider MHT-STL-MHT or MHT-BNA-MHT as a connecting option on WN. Hopefully in 2021 perhaps see WN add MHT-DEN-MHT and a seasonal service to FLL or RSW. The later two flights are wishful thinking and probably not happening.
For AA the next add I would like to see is MHT-MIA-MHT time to connect with Caribbean and South American flights.
DL as more A220'S join their fleet I would like to see MHT-ATL-MHT be served twice daily, DTW upgraded to mainline and extremely wishful thinking a summer seasonal MHT-MSP-MHT.
UA someday return to ORD or EWR. Again extremely wishful thinking on my part


All might be wishful thinking, but sound reasoning: Everything you noted is confirmed by the previous service back in the 2000s. The flights will make money and the people will come.
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Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Mon Feb 03, 2020 5:55 pm

I have a lingering suspicion that WN will get increasingly pushed out of BOS, and once that happens they will start to reinvest in their peripheral stations, particularly MHT and PVD, although PWM could also benefit.

Right now WN's entire New England operation seems very strange. They almost disincentivize travelers from Maine and New Hampshire to use their home airports through artificially high pricing. For instance, in all of the times that I've checked, I have NEVER been able to find a WN flight from PWM-West coast that was less expensive than any of the three legacy carriers. They REALLY want travelers from northern New England to go to BOS if they want to head West, and that definitely hurts their loads at MHT, PVD and PWM.
 
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Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Mon Feb 03, 2020 6:23 pm

Fex180 wrote:
I have a lingering suspicion that WN will get increasingly pushed out of BOS, and once that happens they will start to reinvest in their peripheral stations, particularly MHT and PVD, although PWM could also benefit.

Right now WN's entire New England operation seems very strange. They almost disincentivize travelers from Maine and New Hampshire to use their home airports through artificially high pricing. For instance, in all of the times that I've checked, I have NEVER been able to find a WN flight from PWM-West coast that was less expensive than any of the three legacy carriers. They REALLY want travelers from northern New England to go to BOS if they want to head West, and that definitely hurts their loads at MHT, PVD and PWM.


I don't think they will get pushed out, it just didn't pan out the way they had hoped. WN tries to be as much about point-to-point as they can be but the nature of the Northeast market requires them to be more hub and spoke outside of Florida O&D.

My $0.02 says the next major change for WN in the northeast will be when they introduce red-eyes.
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Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Mon Feb 03, 2020 7:28 pm

HVNandrew wrote:
airlineworker wrote:
F27500 wrote:

Seems like a great way to kill off a market. 1 or 2 flights a day? Don't even bother. All they're doing is making HVN even more of a joke to the local area and travellers with this meager schedule.


One more point, AA returns to a full HVN schedule in the spring while ORH still has only one DL flight to DTW and one AA flight to PHL, both on 50 seat RJ's. The market is good and that's why the state wants to limit HVN's runway. More service at HVN would result in a drop of car traffic on I-91 northbound to BDL.

Comparing ORH's level of service to...almost anywhere else is setting a pretty low bar. Concluding that "the market is good" based on the fact that HVN has an extra flight to PHL over ORH isn't really convincing or saying much.

As I've said before, the runway issue is a red herring at this point. The E75s flying to CLT could fly to other east coast hubs if carriers wanted to fly those routes. They apparently don't see the need,


I guess we see HVN in a different light. For years I have watched Tweed struggle with differing issues, the runway length, obstructions in the flight path, airliners ranging from 19 to 37 seats planes then jumping up to over 100 seats that would take weight restrictions on many flights. Now with next gen RJ's that are good off short runways, it appears like the right combination has been found. ORH single daily flights are on 50 seat planes, HVN's flights are on 76 seat E-175's and are experiencing good loads. In the spring the PHL service returns to 3 daily flights. That's 228 daily seats compared to 50 seats at ORH. Many area people still are unaware of AA's jet service but little by little the word is spreading as seen by the rise in passenger numbers over the last few years. The runway issue is surely not a red herring issue as Allegiant has said they will initiate N/S flights to Florida when the runway is longer. UA and B6 are looking at HVN and I expect one will commit this year.
 
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Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Mon Feb 03, 2020 7:47 pm

Fex180 wrote:
I have a lingering suspicion that WN will get increasingly pushed out of BOS, and once that happens they will start to reinvest in their peripheral stations, particularly MHT and PVD, although PWM could also benefit.

Right now WN's entire New England operation seems very strange. They almost disincentivize travelers from Maine and New Hampshire to use their home airports through artificially high pricing. For instance, in all of the times that I've checked, I have NEVER been able to find a WN flight from PWM-West coast that was less expensive than any of the three legacy carriers. They REALLY want travelers from northern New England to go to BOS if they want to head West, and that definitely hurts their loads at MHT, PVD and PWM.


We agree that WN 'needs' to be at Logan. But they cannot turn planes as fast there as they could at MHT/PVD; the time taxiing to the departure end of the runway is MUCH longer than at MHT/BOS; landing fees are higher than at MHT/PVD. Bottom line, thanks to the competition they cannot raise fares to cover those higher costs. So in my view, they are NOT anywhere near as profitable at Logan as they would be at any of their outlying stations.
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Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Mon Feb 03, 2020 7:52 pm

RL757PVD wrote:
Fex180 wrote:
I have a lingering suspicion that WN will get increasingly pushed out of BOS, and once that happens they will start to reinvest in their peripheral stations, particularly MHT and PVD, although PWM could also benefit.

Right now WN's entire New England operation seems very strange. They almost disincentivize travelers from Maine and New Hampshire to use their home airports through artificially high pricing. For instance, in all of the times that I've checked, I have NEVER been able to find a WN flight from PWM-West coast that was less expensive than any of the three legacy carriers. They REALLY want travelers from northern New England to go to BOS if they want to head West, and that definitely hurts their loads at MHT, PVD and PWM.


I don't think they will get pushed out, it just didn't pan out the way they had hoped. WN tries to be as much about point-to-point as they can be but the nature of the Northeast market requires them to be more hub and spoke outside of Florida O&D.

My $0.02 says the next major change for WN in the northeast will be when they introduce red-eyes.

I agree that WN's strategy has been very strange and they have been shrinking at all New England Stations except PWM, which has shown a modest growth due to some larger planes. BOS has not worked out like WN had hoped, so now they are trying to figure out how to right-size the station. I don't know if that will ultimately lead to opening the locked gate to the West from non-BOS stations, but I really think they are handicapping themselves by not connecting well westbound and not aggressively pricing what they do have.

I also agree that red-eyes will probably be the key to PVD/MHT-DEN/LAS restarts, but only if WN can get themselves to allow more westbound traffic.

ChrisNH38 wrote:
Ted Kitchens at MHT sees 'optimism' for 2020. But officials there have been saying that after each of the preceding 14 down years.

But I think he might be right this time, albeit barely. When AA and WN bring back their MAX planes, fleets will have more elasticity. For example, I might envision AA using A319s to ORD. As for WN, more -800s on more routes. In the 'Wishful thinking' category, the trio of routes WN had out of MHT previously...DEN, LAS. PHX...might return. Not all three, obviously, but perhaps one of them.

Any of the above scenarios would cause 2020 to be a slightly 'up' year. You take wins any way you can.

I'm not sure PHX would be in the same category as DEN and LAS. O&D would jump for any of the stations you mentioned if a nonstop was started, but with stronger O&D numbers and connecting options for DEN and LAS, I'd put my money there. Traffic to/from PHX still could flow through BWI, MDW, DEN, and LAS.

As for MHT specifically, I think getting DL to keep ATL year-round is the top priority along with some type of second frequency during the summer. I don't understand why they cut the route entirely instead of using smaller aircraft during the slow months. Along those lines, MHT needs to keep double frequencies to ORD and MDW through the winter. I think they are both now at single frequency timed at MHT in the late afternoon. That's really gotta be tough on west-coast connections both ways. Again, tightening the lock on westbound service.
 
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LotsaRunway
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Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Mon Feb 03, 2020 7:58 pm

ChrisNH38 wrote:
Fex180 wrote:
I have a lingering suspicion that WN will get increasingly pushed out of BOS, and once that happens they will start to reinvest in their peripheral stations, particularly MHT and PVD, although PWM could also benefit.

Right now WN's entire New England operation seems very strange. They almost disincentivize travelers from Maine and New Hampshire to use their home airports through artificially high pricing. For instance, in all of the times that I've checked, I have NEVER been able to find a WN flight from PWM-West coast that was less expensive than any of the three legacy carriers. They REALLY want travelers from northern New England to go to BOS if they want to head West, and that definitely hurts their loads at MHT, PVD and PWM.


We agree that WN 'needs' to be at Logan. But they cannot turn planes as fast there as they could at MHT/PVD; the time taxiing to the departure end of the runway is MUCH longer than at MHT/BOS; landing fees are higher than at MHT/PVD. Bottom line, thanks to the competition they cannot raise fares to cover those higher costs. So in my view, they are NOT anywhere near as profitable at Logan as they would be at any of their outlying stations.

Let me add that WN's pricing structure doesn't have a first class or business class to float yields when the back of the plane fills with low fare flyers like their competitors at BOS. Even the Business select fares to/from BOS are cheaper than PVD and MHT. It would be interesting to see what routes make/lose money for WN at BOS.
 
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Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Mon Feb 03, 2020 8:08 pm

WN currently penalizes east to west coast flying because of the opportunity cost since there's more money to be made on 4x 90 min flights than one 6 hour flight. So until they turn over every stone on the point to point segment and then also add in red eyes to reduce that opportunity cost, you wont see much interest in east-west flying.
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Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Sat Feb 08, 2020 5:35 pm

VS4ever wrote:
BDL - Data - Y/E 2019/u]

Source file: https://bradleyairport.com/wp-content/u ... -FINAL.pdf

First up with their year end numbers is BDL, the good news, overall they ended up for the year, although it's a bit of a mixed bag of individual results.

Support File Location: https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B61t8 ... VRWdmc5SkE

Month Dec 19:

The diverging nature of the airlines can certainly be seen in the Dec numbers

19 vs 18 comparatives
Overall: 564,833 vs 537,511, up 5.1%,
Outbound (Enplane): 286,626 vs 270,790 up 15,836 or 5.8%
Inbound (Deplane): 278,207 vs 266,721 up 11,486 or 4.3%

So actually a decent month being up 5% over the prior year, as ever there are some ups and downs.. again, in order of market share..


1. AA - 138,800 vs 125,480 up 13,320 or 10.6% overall, moved to #1 status for December after WN's decline (more on that in a minute) and ended up with a 24.6% share up 1.2% over the prior year. Outbound up 6,518 or 10.4%, Inbound up 6,802 or 10.8%, so a good balance on both sides. Overall the increases came from mainline (9,761 or 9.8%) , Expressjet was up 3,515 from a zero in 2018 and Republic up 6,144 or 128.2%, these were offset by reductions in flying from Envoy (no flying in 2019), PSA (down 22.1%) and Piedmont (down 6.8%, but on a very small amount of actual pax.

2. WN - 1st last year, 1st no more, 126,194 vs 132,956 down 6,762 or 5.1%. outbound pax fared slightly better down just 3.7% or 2,436, inbound took the brunt down, 4,326 or 6.5%, market share dropped from 24.7% to 22.3%

3. DL - DL are smelling blood in the water. 107,859 vs 98,131 up 9,728 or 9.9%. Huge increase in mainline 11,615 or a 13.8% increase, the net drop coming primarily from Endeavor. Outbound was up 11.4% and Inbound up 8.5%. Also increased market share to 19.1% from 18.3%. Definitely a good month for DL.

4. B6 - second of the drop offs, 72,147 vs 75,268, down 3,121 or 4.1%, like WN, outbound fared better (3% down) than inbound (5.4% down), market share dropped from 14% to 12.8%..

5. UA - maintain 5th spot, with a big but.. 51,693 vs 53,575 down 1,882 or 3.5%, big changes were a reduction in mainline of 16.1% off set by Republic and Mesa, but not enough to make up the gap, market share dropped out of the 10% level to 9.2%. The "but" i hear you ask.. well that comes in at #6

6. NK - 3rd highest YOY growth with 8.7% or 3,733 (46,518 vs 42,785) the split was in favor of inbound at 9.2% or 1,906, that leaves them around 5K short of UA, given UA's continuing reductions, I could see the distinct possibility of these switching next year, it's a long time to wait, but i will be curious to see if it comes about in the end.

7. F9 - First year in a December with 11,558 pax, generating 2% market share, again slight balance towards outbound.

8. International - 8% up for the month albeit only 748 increase, Jazz up 11.5%, DL up 7.2% and just as important EI up 5% (234)


[u]Year and 5 year analysis (2015 thru 2019)

As it's the end of the year, time to take stock of where we are. I will still note the airlines in their market share order, but will do a Year 18 vs 19 analysis and a 5 year analysis too, so you can see how the various airlines have fared over that time.

#1 - AA

18 vs 19
1,648,173 vs 1,607,934 up 40,239 or 2.5%. Modest growth overall, mainline up 70,635 or 5.9%, which shows AA is bringing in bigger aircraft and supporting the routes, there was almost a 100% trade off against Transstates/Go Jet, who dropped to 0, big increases also from Envoy and PSA and Skywest had their first year, offset with a drop from Piedmont.
Outbound - 819,419 vs 800,668 up 18,751 or 2.3%
Inbound - 828,754 vs 807,266 up 21,488 or 2.7%
Market Share increase from 24.1% to 24.4%

15 vs 19
1,648,173 vs 1,508,423 up 139,750 or 9.3%. Modest growth overall and fairly consistent at just under 2% a year on average. massive switch in flying with mainline up 501,960 or 65.3%, also increases by PSA and Skywest and Piedmont, traded off against Air Wisconsin gone (181,438), Transstates gone (60,222), and Republic massively reduced (283,131), all points to bigger gauge routes from AA.
Outbound - 819,419 vs 753,762 up 65,657 or 8.7%
Inbound - 828,754 vs 754,661 up 74,093 or 9.8%
Interestingly however, due to moves elsewhere Market Share has actually decreased from 25.4% to 24.4%, but they have taken #1 spot from WN since 2017..

#2 - WN

18 vs 19
Sadly the only way is down for WN in regards to BDL, but that reduction is allowing other airlines to flourish in the market and buoy the overall number.

1,419,693 vs 1,550,453 down 130,760 or 8.4%. this is pretty self explanatory however coupled with DL's growth pattern over the year there is a very great possibility that they could switch places in 2020, time will tell of course and once the Max's return, may some of the flying will too. But for now.. the trend is very much in the negative.

Outbound - 712,697 vs 779,267 down 66,570 or 8.5%
Inbound - 706,996 vs 771,186 down 64,190 or 8.3%
Market Share decrease from 23.3% to 21.0%

15 vs 19
1,419,693 vs 1,647,931 down 228,238 or 13.8%. as I noted above, WN's reductions have really opened the door for others to walk in and you will see that below, but giving up #1 slot even with the max reductions has to be a calculated philosophy by WN to pull down by this amount and i see the trend continuing in 2020.

Outbound - 712,697 vs 827,147 down 114,450 or 13.8%
Inbound - 706,996 vs 820,784 down 113,788 or 13.9%
Market share has dropped from 27.8% down to 21% so roughly 1.2% per year

#3 - DL

18 vs 19
DL is an interesting position while it has maintained it's #3 slot the gap to WN has closed by nearly 200K pax this year alone, suggesting if that trend continues, that #2 is very much up for grabs in 2020.

1,324,456 vs 1,262,561 up 61,895 or 4.9%. and this is why WN are at risk of losing their spot, 68K increase in mainline and 18K increase in Endeavor with a trade off against Skywest of around 28K

Outbound - 661,769 vs 626,692 up 35,077 or 5,6%
Inbound - 662,687 vs 635,869 up 26,818 or 4.2%, interesting to see only an 1,100 split in inbound and outbound.
Market Share increase 19.6% vs 18.9% cements their #3 position but only 1.4% short now of WN.

15 vs 19
1,324,456 vs 1,309,908 up 14,548 or 1.1%. so interestingly over a 5 year stretch DL has gone pretty flat overall, 2018 was actually their lowest point during the period, which accentuates the increase from 2018, so who knows, will the trajectory continue, or are they topping out. they have WN there for the taking in terms of pax numbers, but will they...

Outbound - 661,769 vs 654,065 up 7,704 or 1.0%
Inbound - 662,687 vs 655,843 up 6,844 or 1.0%
Despite the 18 vs 19 increase, Market share has actually dropped from 22.1% down to 19.6% as a result of their limited overall growth and new entrants into the market.

#4 - B6

18 vs 19
B6 is out on its own, no chance of catching DL and little chance of being overtaken from below, the nearest challenger UA is getting further behind and then NK is nowhere near moving up either.

883,514 vs 847,899 up 35,615 or 4.2%. not a bad increase overall, but there have been ups and downs during the year, so we shall see if the trend continues or not.

Outbound - 446,788 vs 426,987 up 19,801 or 4.6%
Inbound - 436,726 vs 420,912 up 15,814 or 3.8%, nice to see the outbound % increase more, shows folks are using the flights from the BDL area.
Market Share increased by 0.4% from 12.7% to 13.1%, which in the face of big increases elsewhere, is just ok.

15 vs 19
883,514 vs 849,892 up 33,622 or 4.0%. similar situation to DL, where 2018 was the lowest point in the 5 year period, which accentuates the increase from 2018 as well. so it will be interesting to see if they do even more in 2020, while 883K is their highest, one wonders if they are actually going to increase further and break the 900K mark, or this is about it for them.

Outbound - 446,788 vs 424,457 up 22,331 or 5.3%
Inbound - 436,726 vs 425,435 up 11,291 or 2.7% , this is one of the larger shifts to outbound, almost double the increase vs inboud, again, folks in BDL using the services,.
Again Despite the 18 vs 19 increase, Market share has actually dropped from 14.3% down to 13.1% as a result of their limited overall growth and new entrants into the market as a whole.

#5 - UA

18 vs 19
UA is also in limbo, stuck in 6th place, and while there I don't think there is much danger of NK catching them, the gap narrowed by 110K between 2018 and 2019, which is significant, should NK try and grow further into the market.

694,643 vs 764,229 down 69,586 or 9.1%. the question here is whether this is a course correction by UA or it's the start of a trend, as you will see, the 2015 vs 2019 numbers show a very different story. All the regionals and mainline were down YOY with Mesa the only increase in flying to the tune of 46,637 pax, but the rest knocked that out of the park sadly.

Outbound - 347,974 vs 382,804 down 34,830 or 9.1%,
Inbound - 346,669 vs 381,425 down 34,756 or also 9.1%,
Market Share decreased by 1.2% from 11.5% to 10.3%, albeit as noted above 2018 was their biggest number, so the change is accentuated.

15 vs 19
694,643 vs 561,297 up 133,346 or 23.8%, so over 5 years a roughly 4.5% increase , which actually is not that bad considering and shows commitment to the market, but the blip from 18 to 19 might signal a new trend, we won't know until we start seeing the 2020 numbers roll in. Unlike the 18 to 19 flying, the 15 to 19 flying is entirely a switch from regionals to mainline, 369K more mainline pax with the biggest drop coming from Skywest.

Outbound - 347,974 vs vs 282,365 up 65,609 or 23.2%
Inbound - 346,669 vs 278,932 up 67,737 or 24.3% , another scenario with an almost 50/50 split with inbound and outbound.

So for UA, their market share over the period actually increased from 9.5% to 10.3%, despite the 18/19 drop.


#6 - NK

18 vs 19
NK continue to grow at BDL, and hopefully we can see the trend continue, but a 500K plus number in 3 years is pretty huge growth factor, so do they back off and cement what they have or continue to forge ahead?

514,355 vs 471,277 up 43,078 or 9.1%. this shows the catching of UA because of their reduction.

Outbound - 256,231 vs 233,750 up 22,481 or 9.6%,
Inbound - 258,124 vs 237,527 up 20,597 or also 8.7%, yet another outbound growth higher than that of the inbound. Consistent situation here.
Market Share increased by 0.5% from 7.1% to 7.6%.

15 vs 19
As NK weren't flying in 2015, everything would be 100% growth, but 7.6% market share and 500K+ pax has made a name for themselves in this airport, this story will continue to be 1 to keep an eye on for sure.


#7 - International

18 vs 19
Overall a slight reduction from 18 to 19 by less than 1,000 pax, which means the remaining international routes are continuing to hold their own

157,164 vs 158,109 down 945 or 0.6%.

Breakdown

EI - 84,965 vs 82,878 up 2,087 or 2.5% - steady as she goes for EI after a tiny dip from 17 to 18 a nice increase for 19
QK (Jazz) - 65,574 vs 60,708 up 4,866 or 8% - the switch to Jazz has gone very well from ZX (Air Georgian), with this growth, but will we see further growth in 20...
DL - drop from 10,702 to 6,625 a 38% drop, not much to say here, but clearly a big drop in their international routes.
D8 - dropped all routes in 2018.

15 vs 19
Only DL and ZX were flying in 2015, DL at 10K and ZX at 45K, so the drop in DL is about the same and the Canadian flying has grown by almost 45%, quite impressive.

Last but not least, the new kid on the block with F9, 110K pax in 2019 , 55,696 outbound, 54,110 inbound, it's only a 1.6% market share, but we will see where this goes in 2020. The only way, unless they use their dartboard approach is up.

So to my year end estimate, I ended up 17K over the number as B6, DL, NK, UA and WN all fell below what i thought and only AA and F9 were above. Final total: 6,751,804...

So what about 2020... well based on the growth trajectory from 15 to 19, it's running about 2.7% a year which could potentially put BDL at 6.93m this year, if we use the 18 vs 19 growth then we get 6.83m.. either way growth is good right?


I will post the others (PVD and MHT) when they are released.


As always thanks for your detailed review, I know it takes time to do this and I appreciate seeing it!
 
uconn99
Posts: 420
Joined: Mon Feb 01, 2016 11:52 pm

Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Sat Feb 08, 2020 5:36 pm

Beginning May 1st, it looks like Air Canada will be bringing the CRJ into BDL for YYZ and YUL flights.
 
mjgbtv
Posts: 1034
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2008 2:18 am

Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Sun Feb 09, 2020 5:17 pm

I'm not sure what weather conditions were like elsewhere in the region but Friday was a bad day at BTV, with ice overnight followed by a major snowstorm. According to an unofficial report that I saw the airport was even closed for a while, which is extremely unusual. Ironically the only passenger flight to depart or arrive all day was B6 from JFK, and that was not until midnight.
 
CairnterriAIR
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Joined: Sat Jun 28, 2008 1:52 am

Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Sun Feb 09, 2020 5:46 pm

uconn99 wrote:
Beginning May 1st, it looks like Air Canada will be bringing the CRJ into BDL for YYZ and YUL flights.


And with that, it looks like there will no longer be any turboprop operations out of BDL....everything Jet.
 
CairnterriAIR
Posts: 690
Joined: Sat Jun 28, 2008 1:52 am

Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Sun Feb 09, 2020 5:53 pm

HVNandrew wrote:
airlineworker wrote:
F27500 wrote:

Seems like a great way to kill off a market. 1 or 2 flights a day? Don't even bother. All they're doing is making HVN even more of a joke to the local area and travellers with this meager schedule.


One more point, AA returns to a full HVN schedule in the spring while ORH still has only one DL flight to DTW and one AA flight to PHL, both on 50 seat RJ's. The market is good and that's why the state wants to limit HVN's runway. More service at HVN would result in a drop of car traffic on I-91 northbound to BDL.

Comparing ORH's level of service to...almost anywhere else is setting a pretty low bar. Concluding that "the market is good" based on the fact that HVN has an extra flight to PHL over ORH isn't really convincing or saying much.

As I've said before, the runway issue is a red herring at this point. The E75s flying to CLT could fly to other east coast hubs if carriers wanted to fly those routes. They apparently don't see the need,


I have to agree here. Burbank has a similar runway, as does Key West...and both of those stations see long haul flights. I never could understand why they say a 737-700 can’t fly to at least an East Coast hub. If anything we are seeing that E175’s have no problem making it to Charlotte. While there may be a market...charge a decent fare and advertise it and people will fly from anywhere....the HVN terminal and infastructure is subpar.
 
User avatar
VS4ever
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Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Sun Feb 09, 2020 10:07 pm

OAG changes for the week (full credit to Enilria for all the legwork of course). B6 October is not a full month, so focus on September.

Nice uplifts for ACK towards the end of the summer season, except for UA, drawing back.

B6 ACK-BOS SEP 0.4>1.3[0.8]
B6 ACK-DCA SEP 0.1>0.4[0.3] OCT 0>0.3[0.1]
B6 ACK-HPN SEP 0.2>0.6[0.7]
B6 ACK-JFK SEP 1.1>3[2] OCT 0>0.7[0.8]
UA ACK-EWR AUG 3>1.6[3] SEP 1.3>0[0.8]


Nice to see AA adding another ORD/PHL option. For B6 - decreases in PBI, & RSW traded against increases in SJU and FLL.

AA BDL-ORD MAY 4>5[5] SEP 4>5[4] OCT 4>5[4] NOV 4>5[4]
AA BDL-PHL MAY 6>5[4]
B6 BDL-FLL SEP 0.5>1.7[1.6] OCT 0>1.2[1.9]
B6 BDL-PBI SEP 0.3>1.0[1.4] OCT 0>0.8[1.4]
B6 BDL-RSW SEP 0>0.7[0.9] OCT 0>0.8[1.0]
B6 BDL-SJU SEP 0.8>1.9[1.1] OCT 0>1.3[1.0]
B6 BDL-TPA SEP 0.3>1.0[1.0] OCT 0>0.8[1.0]

AA BGR-DCA MAY 3>2[3]

AA BTV-PHL MAY 5>4[4]

AA HVN-PHL MAY 3>2.0[3]

B6 HYA-JFK SEP 0.3>0.6[0.1] - decent lift increase over 2019

B6 FLL-ORH SEP 0.3>1.0[1.0] OCT 0>0.8[1.0] - ORH looks like it will continue at 3x daily (October should right itself when the full schedule is loaded)
B6 JFK-ORH SEP 0.3>1.0[1.0] OCT 0>0.8[1.0]
B6 MCO-ORH SEP 0.3>1.0[1.0] OCT 0>0.8[1.0]

B6 JFK-MVY SEP 0.5>1.5[1.2] OCT 0>0.7[0.5] - B6 showing a little more love to the Cape along with ACK and HYA.

AA CLT-PVD APR 4>5[5] [one for the plus column]
AA ORD-PVD MAY 3>2[3] [traded against a negative in May]
B6 FLL-PVD SEP 0.3>1.0[1.0] OCT 0>0.8[1.0]
B6 MCO-PVD SEP 0.3>1.0[1.7] OCT 0>0.8[1.9] [not good :(]
B6 PBI-PVD SEP 0.3>1.0[0.8] OCT 0>0.8[0.9]
That feeling when you sit at the end of a runway, brakes are released and the raw power takes over. Now that is a thing of beauty and it never gets old.
 
RL757PVD
Posts: 3197
Joined: Fri Dec 03, 1999 2:47 am

Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Mon Feb 10, 2020 12:24 am

PVD-CLT will have 3x A321 of the 5x total in April

As for the B6 MCO, the 2nd flight has been seasonal for a few years now. Hopefully we will see the long elusive 2nd FLL in the next extension
Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
 
airlineworker
Posts: 189
Joined: Sat Feb 02, 2019 1:20 am

Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Mon Feb 10, 2020 12:29 am

CairnterriAIR wrote:
HVNandrew wrote:
airlineworker wrote:

One more point, AA returns to a full HVN schedule in the spring while ORH still has only one DL flight to DTW and one AA flight to PHL, both on 50 seat RJ's. The market is good and that's why the state wants to limit HVN's runway. More service at HVN would result in a drop of car traffic on I-91 northbound to BDL.

Comparing ORH's level of service to...almost anywhere else is setting a pretty low bar. Concluding that "the market is good" based on the fact that HVN has an extra flight to PHL over ORH isn't really convincing or saying much.

As I've said before, the runway issue is a red herring at this point. The E75s flying to CLT could fly to other east coast hubs if carriers wanted to fly those routes. They apparently don't see the need,


I have to agree here. Burbank has a similar runway, as does Key West...and both of those stations see long haul flights. I never could understand why they say a 737-700 can’t fly to at least an East Coast hub. If anything we are seeing that E175’s have no problem making it to Charlotte. While there may be a market...charge a decent fare and advertise it and people will fly from anywhere....the HVN terminal and infastructure is subpar.


This week the SCOTUS is to announce if they will here the states case regarding an appeal to overturn the 2nd appeal court case decision that struck down a state law limiting HVN's runway to 5600 feet. That limited 5600 foot runway is what caused UA after almost 5 years of HVN-ORD service to be halted. Too many weight restricted flights and one flight had to deny 40 passengers on a 737. Granted the terminal is spartan and small but it can handle more than the few flights per day and until service increases, it will have to do. Its been rumored that two airlines have been in talks with the airport apart from Allegiant that has publicly said pending the runway being longer, it will start N/S flights to Florida. AA is doing quite well but with only one major airline, it is losing out on frequent fliers from UA and DL. Gaining these two carriers with flights to ORD and DTW and or ATL would mark a new beginning for the airport. Shortly the displaced threshold on runway 20 will be moved back giving 5600 feet of runway in both directions. That threshold has been there since the early 1970's. I see the bulk of HVN's service will be with 65-90 seat RJ's. I am hoping for UA to start ORD service with the CRJ-550, it has the lowest runway requirements in the CRJ family.
 
PVD523
Posts: 36
Joined: Tue Jan 14, 2020 8:01 am

Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Tue Feb 11, 2020 11:03 am

Anyone know when WN axed PVD's early morning BWI departure for the month of March? I was skimming their spring schedules and noticed it's missing weekdays through the first week of April. I'm guessing it's part of the ongoing MAX-related cuts as I certainly don't recall the March schedule being loaded this way when it first went on sale, though I could be wrong.

The first BWI departure during this timeframe will be 10:25, which astounds me as it further limits PVD's morning access to the rest of WN's network.
 
lat41
Posts: 642
Joined: Mon Jun 28, 2004 12:23 pm

Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Tue Feb 11, 2020 12:58 pm

PVD523 wrote:
Anyone know when WN axed PVD's early morning BWI departure for the month of March? I was skimming their spring schedules and noticed it's missing weekdays through the first week of April. I'm guessing it's part of the ongoing MAX-related cuts as I certainly don't recall the March schedule being loaded this way when it first went on sale, though I could be wrong.

The first BWI departure during this timeframe will be 10:25, which astounds me as it further limits PVD's morning access to the rest of WN's network.

There are actually 2 missing BWI flights during that morning time frame. WN's DCA goes at 0830. There are MCO FLL TPA RSW early departures to blot up the Florida connecting traffic but they already run full, especially during this Spring Break time. For this period, this hands off the capital area traffic to AA and also helps fill AA's A321 to CLT for Southbound connections, except they run full too.
Some of WN's PVD schedule gets put back in the Spring after trimming capacity continually over the past few years to help prop up their unspectacular venture up North at BOS.
 
727LOVER
Posts: 8628
Joined: Tue Oct 09, 2001 12:22 am

Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Wed Feb 12, 2020 7:01 pm

"We must accept finite disappointment, but never lose infinite hope." - Martin Luther King, Jr.
 
PVD523
Posts: 36
Joined: Tue Jan 14, 2020 8:01 am

Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Wed Feb 12, 2020 8:07 pm

727LOVER wrote:


F9 being F9. It's not like the route was unpopular. Add DEN to their list of dropped PVD routes which includes ATL, MIA, CLT, RDU, MSY, AUS, and MYR.
 
Fex180
Posts: 302
Joined: Fri Apr 06, 2018 12:33 pm

Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Wed Feb 12, 2020 10:02 pm

727LOVER wrote:


I wouldn't be surprised if PWM is at risk. Hard to compete with daily service from UA.
 
iyerhari
Posts: 1091
Joined: Sat Jun 01, 2013 4:25 pm

Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Wed Feb 12, 2020 10:09 pm

Neeleman is back with a new airline venture and if you read the article it looks like PVD could get a new airline.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/02/12/ ... ntentQuery

It also looks to be the case that BOS would not get this considering what Neeleman wants to do. One has to give to this legendary visionary - most commoners including me stick with the same company and this person is already in his fifth venture!
 
mjgbtv
Posts: 1034
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2008 2:18 am

Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Thu Feb 13, 2020 12:11 am

Fex180 wrote:
727LOVER wrote:


I wouldn't be surprised if PWM is at risk. Hard to compete with daily service from UA.


I wonder... I looked at some fares and UA is around $600 compared to $300 for Frontier. That seems like a big premium to pay for the convenience of daily service. F9 might be fine with 3x per week.
 
HVNandrew
Posts: 551
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2006 1:05 am

Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Sat Feb 15, 2020 5:01 pm

airlineworker wrote:
CairnterriAIR wrote:
HVNandrew wrote:
Comparing ORH's level of service to...almost anywhere else is setting a pretty low bar. Concluding that "the market is good" based on the fact that HVN has an extra flight to PHL over ORH isn't really convincing or saying much.

As I've said before, the runway issue is a red herring at this point. The E75s flying to CLT could fly to other east coast hubs if carriers wanted to fly those routes. They apparently don't see the need,


I have to agree here. Burbank has a similar runway, as does Key West...and both of those stations see long haul flights. I never could understand why they say a 737-700 can’t fly to at least an East Coast hub. If anything we are seeing that E175’s have no problem making it to Charlotte. While there may be a market...charge a decent fare and advertise it and people will fly from anywhere....the HVN terminal and infastructure is subpar.


This week the SCOTUS is to announce if they will here the states case regarding an appeal to overturn the 2nd appeal court case decision that struck down a state law limiting HVN's runway to 5600 feet. That limited 5600 foot runway is what caused UA after almost 5 years of HVN-ORD service to be halted. Too many weight restricted flights and one flight had to deny 40 passengers on a 737. Granted the terminal is spartan and small but it can handle more than the few flights per day and until service increases, it will have to do. Its been rumored that two airlines have been in talks with the airport apart from Allegiant that has publicly said pending the runway being longer, it will start N/S flights to Florida. AA is doing quite well but with only one major airline, it is losing out on frequent fliers from UA and DL. Gaining these two carriers with flights to ORD and DTW and or ATL would mark a new beginning for the airport. Shortly the displaced threshold on runway 20 will be moved back giving 5600 feet of runway in both directions. That threshold has been there since the early 1970's. I see the bulk of HVN's service will be with 65-90 seat RJ's. I am hoping for UA to start ORD service with the CRJ-550, it has the lowest runway requirements in the CRJ family.

I think there are two separate issues. The runway is a problem specifically for carriers that do not have equipment capable of serving HVN, in this case apparently G4. (Though I think the G4 service is far from a sure thing with a longer runway...it's very easy to hypothetically say you would do something if some critical dynamic were different when the odds of said dynamic actually changing anytime soon are slim.)

But the runway is not an issue for the carriers that do have proper equipment to serve HVN (and in AA's case, already do), but have decided not to do so. That's not a runway problem, that's a market problem. And again there's nothing to indicate that "AA is doing quite well". 2x daily service to PHL and 1x weekly service to CLT with no indications that there are plans for meaningful service increases doesn't scream high performance. In fact, the recent actual operations/changes would indicate the opposite of a well performing market: service to PHL cut to 1x a day at some points, stabilizing at 2x daily, with the latest OAG update showing AA extending the year over year cut to 2x daily service through May (down from 3x). And the 3x over the summer is capacity-neutral (going from 2x E75s to 3x CRJ).
 
jplatts
Posts: 3670
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Sat Feb 15, 2020 6:16 pm

PVD523 wrote:
727LOVER wrote:


F9 being F9. It's not like the route was unpopular. Add DEN to their list of dropped PVD routes which includes ATL, MIA, CLT, RDU, MSY, AUS, and MYR.


Here were the Q3 2019 PDEW's to DEN and some other markets west of the Rocky Mountains from PVD:
PVD-DEN - 114
PVD-LAX/BUR/SNA/ONT - 108
PVD-SFO/OAK/SJC - 81
PVD-SAN - 71
PVD-LAS - 61
PVD-PHX - 56
PVD-SEA - 47
PVD-SLC - 24
PVD-PDX - 19
PVD-SMF - 19

WN re-adding PVD-DEN nonstop service is a possibility since
(a) WN was able to make PVD-DEN nonstop service work in the past, even after adding BOS-DEN nonstop service but prior to dropping PVD-DEN nonstop service,
(b) there is enough O&D between PVD and DEN to support the return of WN PVD-BOS nonstop service,
(c) there is a significant amount of passengers connecting to destinations west of the Rocky Mountains from PVD,
(d) WN has a FF base in both DEN and Rhode Island to support the return on PVD-BOS nonstop service, and
(e) WN has stated that it still plans on significantly expanding at DEN.

WN would probably be able to easily fill PVD-DEN nonstop flights if WN re-adds PVD-DEN nonstop service due to the significant amount of passengers traveling to DEN and some markets west of the Rocky Mountains from PVD.

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